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Techno-Explosion
Energy
Descent
Collapse
Historical Time
Future Time
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What Is Energy Descent?
Decline in net energy available to support humanity
(Net energy is energy profit after all direct & indirect costs of production are subtracted)
A gentle decline like a balloon
coming back to earth as the most hopeful future.
Mirrors energy ascent; very fast over several decades,
and then more slowly over several centuries
Rate of change appears greater
due to radical change in direction
(ie economic contraction)
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Opportunities from energy descent
2007 www.holmgren.com.au
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Climate Change & Energy Descent Scenarios
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Nutrient dependence of agriculture
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Total Water Budget for Average Sydney Household
(ABS 2000)
House
Recreation
(including
restaurants)
In House
(& Garden?)
Services
Clothing
Food
Goods
Transport
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Selected good produced in
Australia
Litres/$ value
Melliodora
Rice in the husk 7459 (8400)
Seed cotton 1600
Sugar cane 1239 (Honey) 2
Dairy products 680 (1450) (Goat dairy) 2
Wine 503 (Wine & juice)!30
Beef products 381 (700) (Eggs & Meat) 2
Fruit & Vegetables 103 (350) !20-50
Clothing 90
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Good & Services to
support Victorians
Global Footprint
Network
Integrated Sustainability
Analysis (Sydney Uni)
Food plant based 8%
Food animal based 28%
Food total 37% 21%
Goods 24% 16%
Housing 18% 18%
Services 11% 37%
Mobility 10% 9%
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Melbourne Metropolitan Area: 8806 km
2

Population in 2000: 3 417 218 persons
Population density: 388 persons /km
2

Area of land per person = 2500m
2
(one quarter acre each)
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Area/person needed to produce total food supply
US agriculture ! 2200 - 4200m
2
/person (Jeavons)
Swedish agriculture ! 1500 - 2500m
2
/person (Gnther)
Bio intensive vegan ! 300m
2
/person (Jeavons)

Permaculture omnivore ! 700-1500m
2
/person (Holmgren guesstimate)
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To improve health and well being
To relocalise our economies
To develop a true culture of place that draws on our multicultural heritage
To increase local food security and sovereignty
in the face of peak oil, climate change & economic contraction
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Sheet mulching, raised beds,
vertical growing, & other
techniques for intensive
garden agriculture
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Attached Greenhouses and poly
tunnels (minimal bottom heat)
for seedling production,
early production and extended
seasons
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Allotment, rooftop, container and
vertical gardens & aquaponics
(higher density areas)
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Composting, deep litter systems &
worm farms for nutrient recycling
and soil improvement
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Compost toilets and reed beds
for nutrient capture
and water saving
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Storm water harvesting to tanks,
swales, ponds and wetlands
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Poultry for eggs in
deep litter yards,
chicken tractor &
orchard range systems
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Rabbits and geese for meat,
fed by urban lawns & weeds
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Neighbourhood goat dairies
managing public land
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Mushroom production on compost & wood
in shaded spaces
Bees for honey, pollen, wax & pollination
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Home food processing, preserving & fermentation
using low energy methods
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Low input pond
aquaculture
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Amenity landscaping as
source of fuel and organic
matter
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Wild harvesting (weeds, windfalls and wildlife): abundance at your feet
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What is the cost of current centralised markets?
How can surpluses from gardens be distributed?
Local markets that dont cost the earth
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Community Supported Agriculture
For consumers: food security, seasonal food culture, influence
For producers: capital base, market security
Stimulate polyculture and stabilise production peaks & troughs
Develop seasonal labour pool & understanding consumers
Farmers markets
Identify local sources for consumers
Distribute seasonal surplus for home processing & preservation
Encourage gardeners to become new producers
Restaurants and street stalls providing set menus to reduce waste
Local & regional currencies to encourage local production & consumption
Increase household size for economies of scale & efficiency of resource use
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Focus on production of local food for local people
Remove health & environmental regulatory impediments to garden agriculture.
Develop skills (gardening, food processing, small livestock husbandry)
Reform horticulture and agricultural education to support new start-up producers
Remove tax impediments to barter & non monetary economies
I believe the evidence of global instability leading to energy descent if not total collapse is
so overwhelming that it is incumbent on everyone to begin taking personal and
household responsibility for reorganising their lives to adapt in place (or consolidate with
family or friends). Paying off debt, teaching our kids to garden, and turning our hobby
into a business is not going to solve the problems unleashed by permanent energetic and
economic contraction, but after forty years of public policy denial of the limits to growth
conundrum by government, the media and other sources of power and public policy, the
bottom up adaption strategy is the only one with any remaining utility.
Retrotting the Suburbs: Simplicity Institute Report 2012
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Living Soil; the water & carbon bank for future food security
Hot Composting
Mulching potatoes with meadow hay
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Hot Composting
The next generation of farmers;
skills to feed themselves, kin and community for future food security
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