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While the budget framework is useful in communicating the urgency of beginning emissions reductions, it is
worth pointing out a danger: Individuals, families, and institutions alike are used to thinking it acceptable to
spend the entire budget. However, since we are dealing with probability, the farther we stay under budget,
the more likely we are to avoid catastrophic consequences.
!"# %&'# ()* +,-#'./#0. O
lndusLrlal levels (Allen, lrame, PunLlngford, eL al. 2009, hereafLer A2009,
Melnshausen eL al. 2009, here afLer M2009).
M2009 found LhaL llmlLlng cumulaLlve CC
2
emlsslons from Lhe perlod 2000
Lhrough 2049 Lo 1,000 CL
*
CC
2
(272.92 CLC
1
) would provlde a sevenLy-flve
percenL chance of sLaylng under 2C, and llmlLlng Lo 1440CL CC
2
(393 CLC)
would resulL ln a flfLy percenL chance (Lhese flgures lnclude Lhe neL
warmlng effecL of oLher cllmaLe forclngs).
13
noLe, however, LhaL M2009
only goes Lhrough 2049. A2009 brlngs Lo llghL LhaL CC
2
released Loday wlll
conLlnue Lo have cllmaLlc effecLs well beyond 2049: [C]llmaLe effecLs of
CC
2
release[d] Lo Lhe aLmosphere wlll perslsL for Lens, lf noL hundreds, of
Lhousands of years lnLo Lhe fuLure."
16
A2009 flnds LhaL cumulaLlve
emlsslons, beglnnlng from lndusLrlallzaLlon, of 3,664 CL CC
2
(1,000 CLC) wlll
lead Lo 2C (90 Cl 1.3-3.9C). 1hus, Lhe resulLs of Lhese Lwo carbon budgeL
papers are effecLlvely Lhe same, as A2009 sLaLes lLs besL esLlmaLe for 2C
warmlng Lo be 2000-2049 emlsslons of .4-.3 1LC (1rllllon Lonnes of Carbon)
whlle M2009 flnds .393 1LC.
1he lCC's llfLh AssessmenL 8eporL also examlned Lhe carbon budgeL
framework. 1hey found LhaL llmlLlng cumulaLlve carbon emlsslons Lo 790 CL
resulLs ln a greaLer Lhan 66 chance of llmlLlng warmlng Lo 2C above
prelndusLrlal levels. 1hey also noLe Lhls ls a conservaLlve esLlmaLe (llkely
hlgher warmlng). PumanlLy had released 313 CLC Lhrough 2011, leavlng
273 CLC ln Lhe budgeL. Powever, Lhe mosL up Lo daLe emlsslons flgure ls
373 CLC Lhrough !anuary 2014.
17
1hrough Lhe presenL Lhen, "W/&0,.G "&'
*)WC"BG <1X Q.% *#/&,0,0CD
*
Gt is the abbreviation for Gigaton, which is equivalent to a billion tons.