Brazil's agricultural miracle - How to feed the world The emerging conventional wisdom about world farming is gloomy.

There is an alternative Aug 26th 2010 THE world is planting a vigorous new crop: agro-pessimism or !ear that man"ind will not #e a#le to !eed itsel! e$cept #% wrec"ing the environment& The current harvest o! this variet% o! whine will #e a #umper one& 'atural disasters(!ire in )ussia and !lood in *a"istan which are the world+s !i!th- and eighth-largest wheat producers respectivel%(have added a ,i#lical colouring to an un!olding !ear o! !amine& ,% 20-0 world grain output will have to rise #% hal! and meat production must dou#le to meet demand& And that cannot easil% happen #ecause growth in grain %ields is !lattening out there is little e$tra !armland and renewa#le water is running short& The world has #een here #e!ore& .n 1/60 *aul Ehrlich a 1althusian wrote that the #attle to !eed all o! humanit% is over2 .n the 1/00s and 1/30s hundreds o! millions o! people will starve to death& 4ive %ears later in The 5imits to 6rowth the 7lu# o! )ome 8a group o! #usiness people and academics9 argued that the world was running out o! raw materials and that societies would pro#a#l% collapse in the 21st centur%& A %ear a!ter The 5imits to 6rowth appeared however and at a time when soaring oil prices seemed to con!irm the 7lu# o! )ome+s worst !ears a countr% which was then a large net !ood importer decided to change the wa% it !armed& :riven partl% #% !ear that it would not #e a#le to import enough !ood it decided to e$pand domestic production through scienti!ic research not su#sidies& .nstead o! tr%ing to protect !armers !rom international competition(as much o! the world still does(it opened up to trade and let ine!!icient !arms go to the wall& This was all the more remar"a#le #ecause most o! the countr% was then regarded as un!it !or agricultural production& The countr% was ,ra;il& .n the !our decades since it has #ecome the !irst tropical agricultural giant and the !irst to challenge the dominance o! the #ig !ive !ood e$porters 8America 7anada Australia Argentina and the European <nion9& Even more stri"ing than the !act o! its success has #een the manner o! it& ,ra;il has !ollowed more or less the opposite o! the agro-pessimists+ prescription& 4or them sustaina#ilit% is the greatest virtue and is #est achieved #% encouraging small !arms and organic practices& The% !rown on monocultures and chemical !ertilisers& The% li"e agricultural research #ut loathe geneticall% modi!ied 8619 plants& The% thin" it is more important !or !ood to #e sold on local than on international mar"ets& ,ra;il+s !arms are sustaina#le too than"s to a#undant land and water& ,ut the% are man% times the si;e even o! American ones& 4armers #u% inputs and sell crops on a scale that ma"es sense onl% i! there are world mar"ets !or them& And the% depend criticall% on new technolog%& ,ra;il+s progress has #een underpinned #% the state agricultural-research compan% and pushed !orward #% 61 crops& ,ra;il represents a clear alternative to the growing #elie! that in !arming small and organic are #eauti!ul& That alternative commands respect !or three reasons& 4irst it is magni!icentl% productive& .t is not too much to tal" a#out a miracle and one that has #een achieved without the huge state su#sidies that prop up !armers in Europe and America& =econd the ,ra;ilian wa% o! !arming is more li"el% to do good in the poorest countries o! A!rica and Asia& ,ra;il+s climate is tropical li"e theirs& .ts success was #uilt partl% on improving grasses !rom A!rica and cattle !rom .ndia& >! course there are m%riad reasons wh% its wa% o! !arming will not translate easil% nota#l% that its success was achieved at a time when the climate was relativel% sta#le whereas now uncertaint% looms& =till the #asic ingredients o! ,ra;il+s success(agricultural research capital-intensive large !arms openness to trade and to new !arming techni?ues(should wor" elsewhere& Plant the plains, save the forests Third ,ra;il shows a di!!erent wa% o! stri"ing a #alance #etween !arming and the environment& The countr% is accused o! promoting agriculture #% ra;ing the Ama;on !orest& And it is true that there has #een too much destructive !arming there& ,ut most o! the revolution o! the past @0 %ears has ta"en place in the cerrado hundreds o! miles awa%& 'orman ,orlaug who is o!ten called the !ather o! the 6reen )evolution said the #est wa% to save the world+s imperilled ecos%stems would #e to grow so much !ood elsewhere that no#od% would need to touch the natural wonders& ,ra;il shows that can #e done& .t also shows that change will not come a#out #% itsel!& 4our decades ago the countr% !aced a !arm crisis and responded with decisive #oldness& The world is !acing a slow-motion !ood crisis now& .t should learn !rom ,ra;il&

Brazilian agriculture

The miracle of the cerrado

Brazil has revolutionised its own farms. others!
Aug 26th 2010 A 7)E1AB *.A<C

an it do the same for

.' A remote corner o! ,ahia state in north-eastern ,ra;il a vast new !arm is springing out o! the dr% #ush& Thirt% %ears ago eucal%ptus and pine were planted in this part o! the cerrado 8,ra;il+s savannah9& 'ative shru#s later reclaimed some o! it& 'ow ever% !ield tells the stor% o! a trans!ormation& =ome have #een cut to a litter o! tree stumps and scru#D on others charcoal-ma"ers have moved in to reduce the root#alls to !uelD ne$t other !ields have #een levelled and prepared with lime and !ertiliserD and some have alread% #een turned into white oceans o! cotton& 'e$t season this !arm at Eato#F will plant and harvest cotton so%a#eans and mai;e on 2@ 000 hectares 200 times the si;e o! an average !arm in .owa& .t will trans!orm a povert%-stric"en part o! ,ra;il+s #ac"lands& Three hundred miles north in the state o! *iauG the trans!ormation is alread% complete& Three %ears ago the 7rema? !arm was a !ailed e$periment in growing cashews& .ts #arns were !alling down and the scru# was reasserting its grip& 'ow the !arm (which li"e Eato#F is owned #% ,rasilAgro a compan% that #u%s and modernises neglected !ields(uses radio transmitters to "eep trac" o! the weatherD runs =A* so!twareD emplo%s H00 people under a gacho !rom southern ,ra;ilD has 200"m 812@ miles9 o! new roads criss-crossing the !ieldsD and at harvest time resounds to the thunder o! lorries which da% and night carr% mai;e and so%a to distant ports& That all this is happening in *iauG(the Tim#u"tu o! ,ra;il a remote somewhat lawless area where the nearest health clinic is hal! a da%+s Iourne% awa% and most people live o!! state wel!are pa%ments(is nothing short o! miraculous& These two !arms on the !rontier o! ,ra;ilian !arming are microcosms o! a national change with glo#al implications& .n less than H0 %ears ,ra;il has turned itsel! !rom a !ood importer into one o! the world+s great #read#as"ets 8see chart 19& .t is the !irst countr% to have caught up with the traditional #ig !ive grain e$porters 8America 7anada Australia Argentina and the European <nion9& .t is also the !irst tropical !oodgiantD the #ig !ive are all temperate producers& The increase in ,ra;il+s !arm production has #een stunning& ,etween 1//6 and 2006 the total value o! the countr%+s crops rose !rom 2H #illion reais 8J2H #illion9 to 103 #illion reais or H6-K& ,ra;il increased its #ee! e$ports ten!old in a decade overta"ing Australia as the world+s largest e$porter& .t has the world+s largest cattle herd a!ter .ndia+s& .t is also the world+s largest e$porter o! poultr% sugar cane and ethanol 8see chart 29& =ince 1//0 its so%a#ean output has risen !rom #arel% 1-m tonnes to over 60m& ,ra;il accounts !or a#out a third o! world so%a#ean e$ports second onl% to America& .n 1//@ ,ra;il+s so%a#ean e$ports were one-seventh o! America+sD now the% are si$-sevenths& 1oreover ,ra;il supplies a ?uarter o! the world+s so%a#ean trade on Iust 6K o! the countr%+s ara#le land&

'o less astonishingl% ,ra;il has done all this without much government su#sid%& According to the >rganisation !or Economic 7o-operation and :evelopment 8>E7:9 state support accounted !or -&0K o! total !arm income in ,ra;il during 200--00& That compares with 12K in America 26K !or the >E7: average and 2/K in the European <nion& And ,ra;il has done it without de!oresting the Ama;on 8though that has happened !or other reasons9& The great e$pansion o! !armland has ta"en place 1 000"m !rom the Iungle& How did the countr% manage this astonishing trans!ormationL The answer to that matters not onl% to ,ra;il #ut also to the rest o! the world& "n attractive Brazilian model ,etween now and 20-0 the world+s population will rise !rom 0 #illion to / #illion& .ts income is li"el% to rise #% more than that and the total ur#an population will roughl% dou#le changing diets as well as overall demand #ecause cit% dwellers tend to eat more meat& The <'+s 4ood and Agriculture >rganisation 84A>9 rec"ons grain output will have to rise #% around hal! #ut meat output will have to dou#le #% 20-0& This will #e hard to achieve #ecause in the past decade the growth in agricultural %ields has stalled and water has #ecome a greater constraint& ,% one estimate onl% @0K o! the increase in world grain output now comes !rom rises in %ields and 60K comes !rom ta"ing more land under cultivation& .n the 1/60s Iust a ?uarter came !rom more land and three?uarters came !rom higher %ields& =o i! %ou were as"ed to descri#e the sort o! !ood producer that will matter most in the ne$t @0 %ears %ou would pro#a#l% sa% something li"e this: one that has #oosted output a lot and loo"s capa#le o! continuing to do soD one with land and water in reserveD one

a#le to sustain a large cattle herd 8it does not necessaril% have to #e e!!icient #ut capa#le o! improvement9D one that is productive without massive state su#sidiesD and ma%#e one with lots o! savannah since the #iggest single agricultural !ailure in the world during past decades has #een tropical A!rica and an%thing that might help A!ricans grow more !ood would #e especiall% valua#le& .n other words %ou would descri#e ,ra;il& ,ra;il has more spare !armland than an% other countr% 8see chart H9& The 4A> puts its total potential ara#le land at over @00m hectaresD onl% -0m is #eing used& ,ra;ilian o!!icial !igures put the availa#le land somewhat lower at H00m hectares& Either wa% it is a vast amount& >n the 4A>+s !igures ,ra;il has as much spare !armland as the ne$t two countries together 8)ussia and America9& .t is o!ten accused o! levelling the rain!orest to create its !arms #ut hardl% an% o! this new land lies in Ama;oniaD most is cerrado& ,ra;il also has more water& According to the <'+s Morld Mater Assessment )eport o! 200/ ,ra;il has more than 3 000 #illion cu#ic "ilometres o! renewa#le water each %ear easil% more than an% other countr%& ,ra;il alone 8population: 1/0m9 has as much renewa#le water as the whole o! Asia 8population: @ #illion9& And again this is not mainl% #ecause o! the Ama;on& *iauG is one o! the countr%+s driest areas #ut still gets a third more water than America+s corn #elt& >! course having spare water and spare land is not much good i! the% are in di!!erent places 8a pro#lem in much o! A!rica9& ,ut according to ,rasilAgro ,ra;il has almost as much !armland with more than /0- millimetres o! rain each %ear as the whole o! A!rica and more than a ?uarter o! all such land in the world& =ince 1//6 ,ra;ilian !armers have increased the amount o! land under cultivation #% a third mostl% in the cerrado& That is ?uite di!!erent !rom other #ig !arm producers whose amount o! land under the plough has either #een !lat or 8in Europe9 !alling& And it has increased production #% ten times that amount& ,ut the availa#ilit% o! !armland is in !act onl% a secondar% reason !or the e$traordinar% growth in ,ra;ilian agriculture& .! %ou want the primar% reason in three words the% are Em#rapa Em#rapa Em#rapa& #ore food without deforestation Em#rapa is short !or Empresa ,rasileira de *es?uisa AgropecuFria or the ,ra;ilian Agricultural )esearch 7orporation& .t is a pu#lic compan% set up in 1/0H in an unusual !it o! !arsightedness #% the countr%+s then ruling generals& At the time the ?uadrupling o! oil prices was ma"ing ,ra;il+s high levels o! agricultural su#sid% una!!orda#le& 1auro 5opes who supervised the su#sid% regime sa%s he urged the government to give J20 to Em#rapa !or ever% J-0 it saved #% cutting su#sidies& .t didn+t #ut Em#rapa did receive enough mone% to turn itsel! into the world+s leading tropical-research institution& .t does ever%thing !rom #reeding new seeds and cattle to creating ultra-thin edi#le wrapping paper !or !oodstu!!s that changes colour when the !ood goes o!! to running a nanotechnolog% la#orator% creating #iodegrada#le ultra-strong !a#rics and wound dressings& .ts main achievement however has #een to turn the cerrado green& Mhen Em#rapa started the cerrado was regarded as un!it !or !arming& 'orman ,orlaug an American plant scientist o!ten called the !ather o! the 6reen )evolution told the New York Times that no#od% thought these soils were ever going to #e productive& The% seemed too acidic and too poor in nutrients& Em#rapa did !our things to change that& 4irst it poured industrial ?uantities o! lime 8pulverised limestone or chal"9 onto the soil to reduce levels o! acidit%& .n the late 1//0s 1@m-16m tonnes o! lime were #eing spread on ,ra;ilian !ields each %ear rising to 2-m tonnes in 200H and 200@& This amounts to roughl% !ive tonnes o! lime a hectare sometimes more& At the 20 000-hectare 7rema? !arm - 000 hul"ing H0tonne lorries have disgorged their contents on the !ields in the past three %ears& Em#rapa scientists also #red varieties o! rhizobium a #acterium that helps !i$ nitrogen in legumes and which wor"s especiall% well in the soil o! the cerrado reducing the need !or !ertilisers& =o although it is true ,ra;il has a lot o! spare !armland it did not Iust have it hanging around waiting to #e ploughed& Em#rapa had to create the land in a sense or ma"e it !it !or !arming& Toda% the cerrado accounts !or 00K o! ,ra;il+s !arm output and has #ecome the new 1idwest& Me changed the paradigm sa%s =ilvio 7restana a !ormer head o! Em#rapa proudl%& =econd Em#rapa went to A!rica and #rought #ac" a grass called brachiaria& *atient cross#reeding created a variet% called braquiarinha in ,ra;il which produced 20-2- tonnes o! grass !eed per hectare man% times what the native cerrado grass produces and three times the %ield in A!rica& That meant parts o! the cerrado could #e turned into pasture ma"ing possi#le the enormous e$pansion o! ,ra;il+s #ee! herd& Thirt% %ears ago it too" ,ra;il !our %ears to raise a #ull !or slaughter& 'ow the average time is 13-20 months& That is not the end o! the stor%& Em#rapa has recentl% #egun e$periments with geneticall% modi!%ing brachiaria to produce a larger-lea!ed variet% called braquiarowhich promises even #igger increases in !orage& This alone will not trans!orm the livestoc" sector which remains rather ine!!icient& Around one-third o! improvement to livestoc" production comes !rom #etter #reeding o! the animalsD one-third comes !rom improved resistance to diseaseD and onl% one-third !rom #etter !eed& ,ut it will clearl% help& Third and most important Em#rapa turned so%a#eans into a tropical crop& =o%a#eans are native to north-east Asia 8Eapan the Norean peninsular and north-east 7hina9& The% are a temperate-climate crop sensitive to temperature changes and re?uiring !our distinct seasons& All other #ig so%a#ean producers 8nota#l% America and Argentina9 have temperate climates& ,ra;il itsel! still grows so%a in its temperate southern states& ,ut #% old-!ashioned cross#reeding Em#rapa wor"ed out how to ma"e it also grow in a tropical climate on the rolling plains o! 1ato 6rosso state and in 6oiFs on the #a"ing cerrado& 1ore

recentl% ,ra;il has also #een importing geneticall% modi!ied so%a seeds and is now the world+s second-largest user o! 61 a!ter the <nited =tates& This %ear Em#rapa won approval !or its !irst 61 seed& Em#rapa also created varieties o! so%a that are more tolerant than usual o! acid soils 8even a!ter the vast application o! lime the cerrado is still somewhat acidic9& And it speeded up the plants+ growing period cutting #etween eight and 12 wee"s o!! the usual li!e c%cle& These short c%cle plants have made it possi#le to grow two crops a %ear revolutionising the operation o! !arms& 4armers used to plant their main crop in =eptem#er and reap in 1a% or Eune& 'ow the% can harvest in 4e#ruar% instead leaving enough time !or a !ull second crop #e!ore the =eptem#er planting& This means the second crop 8once small9 has #ecome as large as the !irst accounting !or a lot o! the increases in %ields& =uch improvements are continuing& The 7rema? !arm could hardl% have e$isted until recentl% #ecause so%a would not grow on this hottest most acidic o! ,ra;ilian #ac"lands& The variet% o! so%a now #eing planted there did not e$ist !ive %ears ago& :r 7restana calls this the genetic trans!ormation o! so%a& 5astl% Em#rapa has pioneered and encouraged new operational !arm techni?ues& ,ra;ilian !armers pioneered no-till agriculture in which the soil is not ploughed nor the crop harvested at ground level& )ather it is cut high on the stal" and the remains o! the plant are le!t to rot into a mat o! organic material& 'e$t %ear+s crop is then planted directl% into the mat retaining more nutrients in the soil& .n 1//0 ,ra;ilian !armers used no-till !arming !or 2&6K o! their grainsD toda% it is over -0K& Em#rapa+s latest tric" is something called !orest agriculture and livestoc" integration: the !ields are used alternatel% !or crops and livestoc" #ut threads o! trees are also planted in #etween the !ields where cattle can !orage& This it turns out is the #est means %et devised !or rescuing degraded pasture lands& Having spent %ears increasing production and acreage Em#rapa is now turning to wa%s o! increasing the intensit% o! land use and o! rotating crops and livestoc" so as to !eed more people without cutting down the !orest& 4armers ever%where gripe all the time and ,ra;ilians needless to sa% are no e$ception& Their #iggest complaint concerns transport& The !ields o! 1ato 6rosso are 2 000"m !rom the main so%a#ean port at *aranaguF which cannot ta"e the largest most modern ships& =o ,ra;il transports a relativel% low-value commodit% using the most e$pensive means lorries which are then !orced to wait !or ages #ecause the doc"s are clogged& *artl% !or that reason ,ra;il is not the cheapest place in the world to grow so%a#eans 8Argentina is !ollowed #% the American 1idwest9& ,ut it is the cheapest place to plant the ne$t acre& E$panding production in Argentina or America ta"es %ou into drier marginal lands which are much more e$pensive to !arm& E$panding in ,ra;il in contrast ta"es %ou onto lands prett% much li"e the ones %ou Iust le!t& Big is beautiful 5i"e almost ever% large !arming countr% ,ra;il is divided #etween productive giant operations and ine!!icient ho##% !arms& According to 1auro and .gne; 5opes o! the 4undacOo 6etulio Pargas a universit% in )io de Eaneiro hal! the countr%+s -m !arms earn less than 10 000 reais a %ear and produce Iust 0K o! total !arm outputD 1&6m are large commercial operations which produce 06K o! output& 'ot all !amil% !arms are a drain on the econom%: much o! the poultr% production is concentrated among them and the% mop up a lot o! rural underemplo%ment& ,ut the large !arms are vastl% more productive& 4rom the point o! view o! the rest o! the world however these !aults in ,ra;ilian agriculture do not matter much& The #igger ?uestion !or them is: can the miracle o! the cerrado #e e$ported especiall% to A!rica where the good intentions o! outsiders have so o!ten shrivelled and diedL There are several reasons to thin" it can& ,ra;ilian land is li"e A!rica+s: tropical and nutrient-poor& The #ig di!!erence is that the cerrado gets a decent amount o! rain and most o! A!rica+s savannah does not 8the e$ception is the swathe o! southern A!rica #etween Angola and 1o;am#i?ue9& ,ra;il imported some o! its raw material !rom other tropical countries in the !irst place& Brachiaria grass came !rom A!rica& The ;e#u that !ormed the #asis o! ,ra;il+s nelorecattle herd came !rom .ndia& .n #oth cases Em#rapa+s "now-how improved them dramaticall%& 7ould the% #e ta"en #ac" and improved againL Em#rapa has started to do that though it is earl% da%s and so !ar it is unclear whether the technolog% retrans!er will wor"& A third reason !or hope is that Em#rapa has e$pertise which others in A!rica simpl% do not have& .t has research stations !or cassava and sorghum which are A!rican staples& .t also has e$perience not Iust in the cerrado #ut in more arid regions 8called theserto9 in Iungles and in the vast wetlands on the #order with *aragua% and ,olivia& A!rica also needs to ma"e #etter use o! similar lands& =cienti!icall% it is not di!!icult to trans!er the technolog% rec"ons :r 7restana& And the technolog% trans!er is happening at a time when A!rican economies are starting to grow and massive 7hinese aid is starting to improve the continent+s !amousl% dire transport s%stem& =till a word o! caution is in order& ,ra;il+s agricultural miracle did not happen through a simple technological !i$& 'o magic #ullet accounts !or it(not even the tropical so%a#ean which comes closest& )ather Em#rapa+s was a s%stem approach as its scientists call it: all the interventions wor"ed together& .mproving the soil and the new tropical so%a#eans were #oth needed !or !arming the cerrado; the two together also made possi#le the changes in !arm techni?ues which have #oosted %ields !urther& =%stems are much harder to e$port than a simple !i$& Me went to the <= and #rought #ac" the whole pac"age Qo! cuttingedge agriculture in the 1/00sR sa%s :r 7restana& That didn+t wor" and it too" us H0 %ears to create our own& *erhaps A!ricans will come to ,ra;il and ta"e #ac" the pac"age !rom us& A!rica is changing& *erhaps it won+t ta"e them so long& Me+ll see& .! we see an%thing li"e what happened in ,ra;il itsel! !eeding the world in 20-0 will not loo" li"e the uphill struggle it appears to #e now&