SYRIA: THE IMPERATIVE

OF DE-ESCALATION
Julien Barnes-Dacey and Daniel Levy
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A rure momenL oI Iope Ius been gIImpsed In LIe oLIerwIse
bIeuk Iundscupe oI LIe pusL Lwo yeurs oI conIIIcL In SyrIu
wILI LIe unnouncemenL on ; Muy oI u joInL eIIorL by UnILed
SLuLes SecreLury oI SLuLe JoIn Kerry und RussIun oreIgn
MInIsLer SergeI uvrov Lo convene u peuce conIerence Lo
udvunce u poIILIcuI soIuLIon. L murks u Lurn uwuy Irom LIe
deIeuLIsm LIuL Ius Ior Loo Iong cIurucLerIsed LIe WesLern
debuLe ubouL SyrIu. WIseIy LIe InLernuLIonuI communILy Ius
so Iur resIsLed mIIILury InLervenLIon - IeurnIng Irom recenL
experIences In LIe MusIIm worId und uwure oI LIe rIsks oI
un especIuIIy expIosIve mIx oI Iorces uL pIuy In SyrIu. TIIs
Ius been muLcIed, LIougI, by un unwIIIIngness Lo muke
LIe uncomIorLubIe compromIses necessury Ior dIpIomucy.
TIe peuce conIerence InILIuLIve sIouId be seIzed on us un
opporLunILy Lo geL beyond LIIs puruIysIs.
ExpecLuLIons oI success ure undersLundubIy muLed, buL LIIs
process oIIers LIe besL Iope oI conLuInIng LIe vIoIence LIuL Ius
uIreudy Lorn LIe counLry upurL, deepened secLurIun dIvIsIons,
und LIreuLened Lo spreud Lo uII oI SyrIu`s neIgIbours. UnLII
LIe unnouncemenL, LIe WesL wus In dunger oI sIeepwuIkIng
InLo un III-consIdered mIIILury InvoIvemenL bused on LIe
quesLIonubIe premIse LIuL u IImILed InLervenLIon - sucI us
urmIng LIe rebeIs or InLroducIng no-IIy zones - couId IeIp
Lo brIng ubouL u poIILIcuI seLLIemenL In SyrIu. BuL ruLIer
LIun openIng LIe door Lo u poIILIcuI soIuLIon, LIIs sorL oI
InLervenLIon-IILe Is more IIkeIy Lo encouruge escuIuLIon on
boLI sIdes, deepen LIe cIvII wur, und ucceIeruLe spIIIover Lo
LIe wIder regIon, wIIIe sLrengLIenIng LIe resoIve oI exLernuI
buckers.
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AILer more LIun Lwo yeurs oI devusLuLIng
desLrucLIon, u rure momenL oI opporLunILy
Ius emerged In SyrIu IoIIowIng LIe US-
RussIun ugreemenL Lo IuuncI Genevu .
Europe musL now geL IuIIy beIInd LIe peuce
InILIuLIve und rejecL LIe IuIse cIoIce beLween
LIe supposed mIIILury-IILe or dIpIomucy-
IILe opLIons - LIuL LIe mIIILury buIunce cun be
LIpped wILIouL u weIgILy InLervenLIon, or LIuL
dIpIomucy cun udvunce wILIouL IuvIng Lo deuI
wILI Assud or run. nsLeud, by promoLIng de-
escuIuLIon und dIpIomucy, LIe WesL sIouId
prIorILIse ruLcIeLIng down vIoIence und LIe
LIreuL oI regIonuI spIII over.
A serIous Genevu eIIorL requIres LIree key
eIemenLs: u seL oI guIdIng prIncIpIes dIsLIIIed
Irom Genevu ; LIe supporL oI u wIde enougI
couIILIon; und u dIpIomuLIc sLruLegy Lo geL IL oII
LIe ground. EIIecLIve dIpIomucy wIII demund
unpuIuLubIe compromIses uImed uL securIng
suIhcIenL InLernuLIonuI uccord Lo nudge LIe
wurrIng purLIes Lowurds LIe negoLIuLIng LubIe.
TIIs wIII Iuve Lo be IncIusIve In Lerms oI boLI
SyrIun und regIonuI purLIcIpuLIon - IncIudIng
engugIng wILI run beyond LIe nucIeur
IIIe. WesLern urmIng oI rebeIs Is III-udvIsed
gIven ILs IIkeIy IImILed ImpucL on LIe ground,
encourugemenL oI escuIuLIon und muxImuIIsm,
und LIe InubIIILy Lo guurunLee In wIose Iunds
weupons wIII end up. AL LIe sume LIme
conLIngency pIunnIng Ior cIemIcuI weupons
use or proIIIeruLIon Is necessury buL Is noL u
subsLILuLe Ior, or sIorL-cuL Lo, u soIuLIon Ior
LIe crIsIs.
2
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TIe reuIILy Is LIuL, even uILer more LIun Lwo yeurs, neILIer
LIe regIme nor LIe rebeIs Iuve been ubIe Lo decIsIveIy
seIze LIe mIIILury uscenduncy. RebeI momenLum Ius been
purLIuIIy reversed. TIe rebeIs IoId pockeLs oI LerrILory buL
uImosL no urbun cenLres; LIey ure IncupucILuLed by InLernuI
dIvIsIons und unubIe Lo cemenL brouder popuIur IegILImucy
- purLIcuIurIy umong SyrIu`s mInorILIes und even LIe SunnI
urbun cIuss. TIe regIme, LIougI cIeurIy no Ionger ubIe Lo
ruIe LIe wIoIe counLry, remuIns remurkubIy coIerenL. L
Ius munuged Lo uvoId mujor deIecLIons Lo LIe opposILIon,
reLuIns sIgnIIIcunL IIgILIng power, und Ius recenLIy mude
some LerrILorIuI guIns.
1
MeunwIIIe, LIe cIvII wur Ius been
LrunsIormed InLo u wIder regIonuI und InLernuLIonuI sLruggIe
Ior power, wILI boLI sIdes IncreusIngIy dependenL on
exLernuI poIILIcuI und mIIILury supporL.
AguInsL LIIs buckdrop, LIere ure no eusy unswers. BuL us
WesLern poIIcymukers ure sLruggIIng Lo IInd u wuy Iorwurd,
mucI oI LIe debuLe ubouL SyrIu remuIns sLuck In u muke-
beIIeve cIoIce beLween InLervenLIon-IILe und dIpIomucy-
IILe. TIe Iormer Is bused on u beIIeI LIuL IIILIng LIe urms
emburgo und even supporL Irom uIr sLrIkes cun IeIp Iund-
pIcked moderuLe opposILIon IIgILers LIp LIe mIIILury
buIunce und Iorce PresIdenL BusIur uI-Assud Lo cupILuIuLe or
Ieuve. TIe IuLLer Is bused on un ussumpLIon LIuL u dIpIomuLIc
process Is possIbIe In wIIcI Assud deIerenLIuIIy sLeps usIde
us regIme und opposILIon eIemenLs wILIouL bIood on LIeIr
Iunds remuke SyrIu uccordIng Lo u sIured vIsIon. I onIy IL
were so.
TIe reuI cIoIce Is now beLween Lwo unsuvoury puLIs: u IuII-
scuIe InLervenLIon und u commILmenL Lo reuI dIpIomucy. A
mIIILury opLIon cupubIe oI seLLIIng LIe conIIIcL decIsIveIy und
openIng u poIILIcuI puLI wIII requIre u Iur greuLer mIIILury
commILmenL LIun LIe WesL Ius uny uppeLILe Ior und wIII
come wILI boLI LIe need Lo do exLensIve sLuLe-buIIdIng In
SyrIu und Iuge rIsks oI IunnIng un even wIder conIIIcL. I
LIe WesL wunLs Lo use reuI dIpIomucy Lo sLop or sIow LIe
kIIIIng, on LIe oLIer Iund, IL wIII need Lo muke unpuIuLubIe
compromIses - In purLIcuIur, uccepLIng LIuL Assud`s IuLe
musL be u quesLIon Ior LIe LrunsILIon process, noL u pre-
condILIon or ussumed ouLcome, und LIuL run musL pIuy u
roIe In LIe dIpIomuLIc process.
TIIs puper urgues LIuL u poIIcy oI de-escuIuLIon bucked by
u dIpIomuLIc pusI Lowurds eIemenLs oI u regIonuI grund
burguIn, uImed uL pusIIng reIucLunL domesLIc ucLors Lowurds
LIe negoLIuLIng LubIe, Is LIe beLLer opLIon. TIIs Is noL becuuse
oI ILs poIILIcuI popuIurILy or moruI cIurILy buL becuuse IL Ius
greuLer poLenLIuI Lo reduce LIe devusLuLIon, kIIIIng, und
cIunce oI regIonuI conLugIon. As SyrIu descends deeper InLo
LIe ubyss, Europeuns musL usk LIemseIves wIuL LIeIr key
objecLIves ure und muke Iurd cIoIces ubouL wIuL muLLers
mosL. I LIey wunL ubove uII Lo ruLcIeL down LIe vIoIence
und spreud oI secLurIun conIIIcL - us opposed Lo oLIer
Iuvoured ouLcomes sucI us deIeuLIng Assud, gIvIng bIrLI Lo
u democruLIc SyrIu, or weukenIng run - Europeuns sIouId
Iocus on de-escuIuLIon und puL uII LIeIr eIIorLs InLo mukIng
dIpIomucy work. NoL uII ILems on u WesLern wIsI IIsL cun be
uccorded LIe sume weIgIL or pursued wILI LIe sume sLruLegy
- IL Is LIme Lo prIorILIse. Even II LIIs upproucI wIII noL
ImmedIuLeIy end LIe vIoIence und cunnoL guurunLee success,
IL Is LIme Lo Luke LIIs Iess-LruveIIed puLI, wIIcI, one wuy or
unoLIer, wIII evenLuuIIy be empIoyed Lo end LIe IIgILIng.
TIere Is un uddILIonuI prIorILy oI rIgILIuI concern Lo Lruns-
ALIunLIc decIsIon-mukers - LIe possIbIe depIoymenL or
proIIIeruLIon oI cIemIcuI weupons. CIemIcuI weupons pose
u unIque cIuIIenge gIven LIe IumunILurIun und IomeIund
securILy ImpIIcuLIons. CIuIms oI cIemIcuI weupons use, us
yeL unverIIIed, ure becomIng more wIdespreud, und mosL
uccusuLIons poInL Lo governmenL responsIbIIILy, wILI
suspIcIons uIso oI rebeI use.
z
DeepenIng sLuLe dIsInLegruLIon
Increuses LIe rIsk oI LIem beIng puL Lo ImmedIuLe use, or
beIng IeId by more rudIcuI eIemenLs Ior IuLure domesLIc
or InLernuLIonuI use. ConLIngency pIuns Lo rupIdIy secure
cIemIcuI weupons II LIe need urIses musL be In pIuce,
IncIudIng wILI reIevunL neIgIbours. BuL pIunnIng Ior
cIemIcuI weupons scenurIos sIouId noL be conIused wILI
deIIverIng u soIuLIon Lo LIe overuII SyrIu crIsIs, nor sIouId LIe
Iormer be vIewed us un enLry poInL or sIorLcuL Lo LIe IuLLer.
TIIs puper begIns by seLLIng ouL LIe dungers oI munuged
escuIuLIon und LIen ouLIInes un uILernuLIve sLruLegy Ior de-
escuIuLIon - seLLIng ouL LIe prIncIpIes on wIIcI IL sIouId be
bused, LIe couIILIon LIuL musL be ussembIed Lo buck IL, und
LIe cIoreogrupIy Ior u Genevu process.
TIe dungers oI munuged escuIuLIon
As LIe deuLI LoII Ius rIsen und LIe Assud governmenL
Ius become more enLrencIed, so Loo Iuve LIe cuIIs Ior u
more muscuIur WesLern poIIcy Lowurds SyrIu. TIe debuLe
Ius revoIved uround Lwo modeIs Ior munuged mIIILury
escuIuLIon: esLubIIsIIng no-IIy zones or urmIng LIe rebeIs.
NeILIer InvoIves booLs on LIe ground, wIIcI Is wIy LIey
cun besL be cIurucLerIsed us InLervenLIon-IILe.

SupporLers
oI LIese poIIcIes urgue LIuL LIey wIII muke Assud more IIkeIy
Lo sLep down, empower LIe so-cuIIed moderuLes umong
LIe opposILIon, und brIng LIe wur Lo u speedIer concIusIon.
However, LIere Is consIderubIe evIdence Ior sucI upproucIes
beIng more IIkeIy Lo Ieud Lo u IuII-scuIe mIIILury InLervenLIon
by LIe WesL, wIIIe mukIng u poIILIcuI soIuLIon even more
dIIIIcuIL Lo grusp.
1 Iz SIy, Assud Iorces guInIng ground In SyrIu, LIe Wcshinton Post, 1z Muy zo1,
uvuIIubIe uL ILLp:JJwww.wusIIngLonposL.comJworIdJussud-Iorces-guInIng-ground-In-
syrIuJzo1JoJ11J;q1q;cq-bqqc-11ez-b68-6q1;I6uc6dqd_sLory.ILmI.
See Ior exumpIe SyrIu cIemIcuI weupons uIIeguLIons, BBC, 1; Muy zo1, uvuIIubIe
uL ILLp:JJwww.bbc.co.ukJnewsJworId-mIddIe-eusL-zz;q;; UN`s DeI PonLe suys
evIdence SyrIu rebeIs 'used surIn`, BBC, 6 Muy zo1, uvuIIubIe uL ILLp:JJwww.bbc.
co.ukJnewsJworId-mIddIe-eusL-zzqzq188
See Jeremy Herb, McCuIn: PuLLIng Lroops In SyrIu LIe 'worsL LIIng UnILed SLuLes
couId do`, LIe Hill, z8 AprII zo1, uvuIIubIe uL ILLp:JJLIeIIII.comJbIogsJbIog-brIehng-
roomJnewsJzq66o;-mccuIn-InLernuLIonuI-Iorce-sIouId-secure-syrIun-cIemIcuI-
weupons.
3
The no-jl-zones option
WesLern governmenLs Iuve Iong Iuced cuIIs Lo underLuke
uIr sLrIkes Lo knock ouL LIe regIme`s uerIuI IIrepower und
Lo esLubIIsI suIe zones wILIIn SyrIu. SupporLers oI LIese
poIIcIes Iuve muILIpIe gouIs, IncIudIng LIppIng LIe buIunce
In LIe mIIILury conIIIcL In Iuvour oI LIe opposILIon, provIdIng
rebeIs wILI spuce Lo mobIIIse und orgunIse, und creuLIng suIe
Iuvens Ior reIugees In SyrIu, purLIuIIy Lo reIIeve LIe sLruIn
pIuced on neIgIbourIng counLrIes.
However, IL Is uncIeur Iow mucI kIIIIng wouId be prevenLed.
AccordIng Lo GeneruI MurLIn Dempsey, cIuIrmun oI LIe
US joInL cIIeIs oI sLuII, onIy 1o percenL oI opposILIon
cusuuILIes resuIL Irom uIr sLrIkes.
q
Moreover, suIe zones
couId cemenL LIe coIIupse oI LIe cenLruI sLuLe, und, gIven
exIsLIng InLru-rebeI IIgILIng, compeLIng groups ure IIkeIy Lo
seek IocuI conLroI LIrougI vIoIenL meuns. As demonsLruLed
by deveIopmenLs In some opposILIon-IeId ureus In purLs oI
norLIern SyrIu, LIIs couId render LIem unyLIIng buL suIe Ior
LIe cIvIIIun popuIuLIon.

As noLed by AnLnIo GuLerres, LIe

UN IIgI commIssIoner Ior reIugees: BILLer experIence Ius
sIown LIuL IL Is rureIy possIbIe Lo provIde eIIecLIve proLecLIon
und securILy In sucI ureus.
6
SyrIu`s coIIupse ucceIeruLed by LIe esLubIIsImenL oI suIe
zones wouId uIso pose u dunger Lo LIe LerrILorIuI unILy
oI neIgIbourIng sLuLes, IueIIIng, Ior InsLunce, exIsLIng
LendencIes Lowurds mIIILIu-run zones In ebunon und ruq,
und LIereby poLenLIuIIy IeedIng u serIes oI regIonuI cIvII
wurs. AddILIonuIIy, LIe ucL oI esLubIIsIIng suIe zones wouId
be un ucL oI wur uguInsL SyrIu, wILI LIe obvIous dungers oI
escuIuLIon und mIssIon creep.
AL LIe momenL, Ieuders In WusIIngLon, ondon, PurIs, und
eIsewIere expIIcILIy rejecL LIIs upproucI, buL IL conLInues Lo
be supporLed by IIgures sucI us US senuLors JoIn McCuIn
und Indsey GruIum, us weII us by vocuI commenLuLors In
LIe press. n IucL, u beLLer opLIon Ior deuIIng wILI LIe reIugee
und DP crIsIs wIII be u poIILIcuI process LIuL Is predIcuLed
on de-escuIuLIon und muInLuInIng SyrIu`s LerrILorIuI InLegrILy,
umong oLIer LIIngs.
Armin the opposition
TIe second modeI, oI urmIng LIe opposILIon, Ius sLronger
supporL In WesLern cupILuIs. BrILIsI und rencI oIIIcIuIs ure
currenLIy suggesLIng LIuL urmIng rebeIs represenLs LIe besL
meuns oI geLLIng LIe opposILIon (und LIeIr regIonuI uIIIes)
Lo come Lo LIe LubIe. SupporLers oI LIIs upproucI urgue
LIuL IL sIouId sLrengLIen moderuLes wILIIn LIe opposILIon,
Increuse LIeIr Ieveruge over LIe regIme, und LIereIore IeIp
u negoLIuLed seLLIemenL. TIe empIusIs sInce LIe ; Muy
unnouncemenL Ius been on InLegruLIng LIe IogIc oI urmIng
wILI LIe IogIc oI LIe peuce conIerence. GIven LIe dIIIIcuILIes
LIuL LIe WesL Ius Iud persuudIng rebeI Iorces Lo Luke purL In
u poIILIcuI process, LIIs quesL Ior Ieveruge Is undersLundubIe,
buL IL Is III udvIsed.
IrsL, IL Is unreuIIsLIc Lo expecL LIuL weupons cun be
guurunLeed Lo end up In LIe Iunds oI pro-WesLern ucLors.
TIe US und ILs uIIIes were unubIe Lo ucIIeve LIe mIcro-
munugemenL oI weupons conLroI In ruq und AIgIunIsLun,
even wILI u mussIve pIysIcuI presence LIere, so IL Is unIIkeIy
LIuL LIey wIII Iure beLLer doIng LIIs wILI u IIgIL IooLprInL. TIe
uppurenL WesLern conduIL, LIe Supreme MIIILury CouncII
under GeneruI SuIIm drIs, Ius u IImILed remIL over buLLIeIIeId
groups.
;
TIIs wIII be purLIcuIurIy cIuIIengIng gIven LIuL
JubIuL uI-Nusru - un orgunIsuLIon wILI decIured IdeoIogIcuI
IInks Lo uI-Quedu - Is now consIdered LIe sLrongesL und mosL
eIIecLIve rebeI IIgILIng Iorce.
WILIIn SyrIu, more urms wIII uIso IurLIer enLrencI LIe
poIILIcuI economy oI wur, uIreudy breedIng wurIordIsm, wur
proIILeerIng, crImInuIIsuLIon, und InLImIduLIon us u wuy oI
IIIe. TIere Is u reuI dunger LIuL LIese weupons couId IInd
LIeIr wuy InLo secLurIun LensIons In neIgIbourIng counLrIes
sucI us ebunon und ruq, suppIyIng oxygen Ior LIe ouLbreuk
oI un urc oI secLurIun conIIIcL ucross LIe evunL. TIe oLIer
neIgIbourIng counLrIes - Jordun, Turkey, und srueI - ure
uII uIso IeeIIng LIe rIppIe eIIecLs In dIIIerenL wuys. TIe
weupons und LIose wIo curry LIem Lend noL Lo respecL
borders. WorryIngIy Ior WesLern poIILIcIuns, LIere Is uIso
LIe dunger LIuL LIey couId even IInd LIemseIves beIng used
uguInsL cIvIIIun LurgeLs In LIe WesL.
8

n uny evenL, LIe WesL Is III-equIpped Lo wIn u ruce Lo urm
proxIes, II ILs supporL Ior rebeIs prompLs run, HezboIIuI,
und RussIu Lo Increuse LIeIr mIIILury buckIng oI LIe regIme.
TIe procedures oI WesLern sLuLes ure more LrunspurenL,
cumbersome, resLrIcLed by reguIuLIons, prone Lo dIpIomuLIc
opposILIon (Irom uIIIes sucI us srueI), or domesLIc poIILIcuI
IuII-ouL LIun LIose oI counLrIes buckIng Assud.
Moreover, Increused IoreIgn supporL Lo predomInunLIy
SunnI rebeIs Ieeds Assud`s IongsLundIng cIuIm LIuL SyrIu
Iuces u IoreIgn-bucked sIumIsL pIoL, enubIIng IIm Lo IurLIer
mobIIIse IIs domesLIc und InLernuLIonuI supporL buse. Pro-
opposILIon escuIuLIon Is LIereIore IIkeIy Lo be meL wILI
escuIuLIon by LIe regIme. DespILe IIs mIIILury Iosses, Assud
q Annu MuIrIne, A no-y zone over SyrIu? Hurder Lo do LIun In Ibyu, wurns Lop US
generuI, o AprII zo1, LIe Christicn Science Monitor, uvuIIubIe uL ILLp:JJwww.
csmonILor.comJUSAJPoIILIcsJmonILor_breukIusLJzo1JoqoJA-no-y-zone-over-
SyrIu-Hurder-Lo-do-LIun-In-Ibyu-wurns-Lop-US-generuI-vIdeo.
g See, Ior InsLunce, Bussem Mroue, AcLIvIsLs: RebeI groups cIusI In norLIern SyrIu,
AssocIuLed Press, 18 Muy zo1, uvuIIubIe uL ILLp:JJnews.yuIoo.comJucLIvIsLs-rebeI-
groups-cIusI-norLIern-syrIu-1z61q8q.ILmI.
6 CIrIsLopIer DIckey, A SuIe Huven nsIde SyrIu? Bud deu, LIe Dcil ecst, 1
SepLember zo1z, uvuIIubIe uL ILLp:JJwww.LIeduIIybeusL.comJurLIcIesJzo1zJoqJo1Ju-
suIe-Iuven-InsIde-syrIu-bud-Ideu.ILmI.
, DuvId Enders, SyrIun rebeI Ieuder SuIIm drIss udmILs dIIhcuILy oI unIIyIng
hgILers, McCIuLcIy, ; Muy zo1, uvuIIubIe uL ILLp:JJwww.mccIuLcIydc.
comJzo1JoJo;J1qo6ozJsyrIun-rebeI-Ieuder-suIIm-IdrIss.ILmI#sLoryIInk=cpy.
S TIere Is uIso LIe dunger posed by u sLreum oI rudIcuIIsed Europeuns LruveIIIng Lo SyrIu
Lo joIn urmed opposILIon groups und Ieurs LIuL LIey couId evenLuuIIy brIng LIe hgIL
buck Lo Europe. AccordIng Lo LIe Germun governmenL, us muny us ;oo Europeuns ure
uIreudy hgILIng LIe Assud regIme. See un Truynor, Germuny Ieurs reLurn oI Europeun
jIIudIsLs In SyrIu, LIe Gucrdicn, 16 Muy zo1, uvuIIubIe uL ILLp:JJwww.guurdIun.
co.ukJworIdJzo1JmuyJ16Jgermuny-Ieurs-europeun-jIIudIsLs-syrIu-reLurn.
4
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Ius noL yeL unIeusIed LIe IuII mIgIL oI IIs mIIILury IIrepower
und cun sLIII mobIIIse sIgnIIIcunL domesLIc supporL us
demonsLruLed by LIe growIng cupucILy oI IIs popuIur mIIILIus,
LIe jcsh cl-shcbi.
q
WILI uII LIe devusLuLIon uIreudy InIIIcLed
IL Is worLI beurIng In mInd LIuL neILIer sIde Ius yeL done ILs
worse. urLIer mIIILurIsuLIon Is IIkeIy Lo Ieed LIe IIgIL or
dIe nurruLIve oI exIsLenLIuI communuI Ieurs LIuL Ius become
LIe drIvIng DNA Ior mucI oI LIIs conIIIcL. TIe sud LruLI Is
LIuL escuIuLIons und InLervenLIons couId sLIII Luke LIe deuLI
LoII Irom LIe Lens oI LIousunds Lo LIe Iundreds oI LIousunds.
Above uII, LIere Is u reuI quesLIon ubouL Iow Iur urmIng
rebeIs und udvuncIng dIpIomuLIc de-escuIuLIon reuIIy cun
proceed Iund-In-Iund. RebeIs currenLIy unwIIIIng Lo enguge
In negoLIuLIons wILI LIe regIme (dIsLIncL Irom uccepLIng LIe
regIme`s poIILIcuI surrender, wIIcI LIey ure prepured Lo
do) ure even Iess IIkeIy Lo do so once LIey receIve WesLern
urmed supporL. Some In Europe Iuve urgued LIuL IeveIIIng
LIe pIuyIng IIeId wIII gIve LIe rebeIs LIe conIIdence LIey need
Lo uccepL u negoLIuLed seLLIemenL. However, LIe reuIILy Is
LIuL LIe opposILIon sLruLegy Ius Iong been Lo secure WesLern
mIIILury InLervenLIon on LIeIr beIuII us LIe key meuns
oI dIsIodgIng Assud - someLImes reIerred Lo us geLLIng
WesLern skIn In LIe gume.
Armed supporL Irom LIe WesL Is LIereIore IIkeIy Lo emboIden
LIeIr umbILIons oI LoLuI vIcLory - mukIng LIem Iess IIkeIy
Lo uccepL u power-sIurIng deuI. L uIso mILIguLes uguInsL
reucIIng u poInL oI muLuuI exIuusLIon, u key poLenLIuI usseL
In LIe seurcI Ior u deuI-mukIng spuce. GIven LIe cIoIce,
boLI sIdes wIII uIwuys Lry Lo convInce exLernuI buckers
LIuL LIeIr predIcumenL Is eILIer suIIIcIenLIy desperuLe or
promIsIng, so LIuL more weupons und supporL remuIn LIe
permunenL ImperuLIve oI LIe Iour. WIen LIe IIgILer Iorms
oI InLervenLIon IuII, us LIey ure IIkeIy Lo do, LIey wIII Increuse
LIe IIkeIIIood oI u IuII-scuIe und proIonged InLervenLIon by
LIe WesL - IncIudIng u pIysIcuI presence. TIIs rIsks druwIng
LIe WesL InLo u mucI-expunded conIIugruLIon, us weII us
mukIng LIe WesL responsIbIe Ior reconsLrucLIng SyrIu Ior
muny yeurs Lo come.
A sLruLegy Ior de-escuIuLIon
WIIIe muny unuIysLs und dIpIomuLs ucknowIedge LIuL
mIIILury opLIons ure unIIkeIy Lo succeed, dIpIomuLIc InILIuLIves
ure oILen vIewed us even more nuIve. An undersLundubIe
sense oI resIgnuLIon pervudes mosL dIscussIons oI SyrIu
uILer LIe IuIIures oI LIe IusL Lwo yeurs. However, LIe ; Muy
Moscow unnouncemenL provIdes u reuI opporLunILy Lo sIupe
un uILernuLIve dIpIomuLIc und poIILIcuI upproucI uImed uL de-
escuIuLIon. L Is one LIuL Europe sIouId IuIIy embruce.
TIe gouI sIouId be Lo seL In moLIon u new dynumIc In wIIcI
exLernuI buckers ure nudgIng LIe Lwo sIdes In LIe dIrecLIon oI
poIILIcs ruLIer LIun uwuy Irom LIem. GIven boLI LIe regIme
und opposILIon`s dependence on exLernuI supporL, LIIs
upproucI Is more IIkeIy Lo evenLuuIIy soILen LIe zero-sum
umbILIons oI LIe pIuyers In SyrIu. And LIe poIILIcuI overIuy
und conLexL In wIIcI LIe IIgILIng Is LukIng pIuce wIII muLLer
greuLIy.
TIe Moscow sLuLemenL by Kerry und uvrov sIgnuIIed u reLurn
Lo LIe Genevu CommunIqu oI June zo1z us u Irumework Ior
progress. Under LIe cIrcumsLunces, Lo Iuve u LexL osLensIbIy
ugreed upon by key purLIes Is u precIous commodILy. BuL
LIIs LIme LIere sIouId be no uLLempL Lo InLerpreL Genevu us
pIucIng pre-condILIons on LuIks or excIudIng purLIes Irom
LIem.
1o

nsIsLIng on Assud`s removuI und u IuII LrunsIer oI power muy
represenL u moruIIy uppeuIIng posILIon Ior LIe muIn Lruns-
ALIunLIc proLugonIsLs buL IL umounLs Lo dIcLuLIng Lerms oI
surrender und Is unLILIeLIcuI Lo pursuIng u dIpIomuLIc Lruck
wILI LIe SyrIun regIme or ILs buckers. HIsLory uppeured Lo
be repeuLIng ILseII wIen on 8 Muy In Rome, one duy uILer
ruIIng ouL pre-condILIons In LIe breukLIrougI Moscow
meeLIngs, Kerry uppeured Lo re-InLroduce LIem by suyIng
LIuL Assud couId noL be purL oI LIe LrunsILIon, u posILIon
subsequenLIy repeuLed by US PresIdenL Buruck Obumu.
TIougI undersLundubIe us u wuy Lo keep uIIIes (IncIudIng u
suspIcIous SyrIun opposILIon) on bourd, LIIs Is noL u prucLIcuI
pIun Ior buIIdIng u wIder InLernuLIonuI consensus. BuIIdIng
suIIIcIenL InLernuLIonuI consensus wIII uIso Iuve Lo be
predIcuLed on LukIng u more IncIusIve upproucI LIuL InvoIves
uII LIe regIonuI ucLors. NeILIer SuudI ArubIu nor run wus
InvILed Lo LIe Genevu guLIerIng In June zo1z. TIIs sIouId be
correcLed LIIs LIme uround.
n order Lo succeed, u sLruLegy Ior de-escuIuLIon wIII need
LIree key eIemenLs: u seL oI guIdIng prIncIpIes, u wIde enougI
couIILIon commILLed Lo de-escuIuLIon, und u dIpIomuLIc
sLruLegy Lo geL Genevu oII LIe ground.
q Pro-Assud mIIILIus Iuve become LIe mosL sIgnIhcunL source oI urmed reInIorcemenL
Ior LIe SyrIun Army. JosepI HoIIIduy, TIe Assud RegIme: rom CounLerInsurgency
To CIvII Wur, nsLILuLe Ior LIe SLudy oI Wur, MurcI zo1, uvuIIubIe uL ILLp:JJwww.
undersLundIngwur.orgJreporLJussud-regIme.
1o oIIowIng LIe InILIuI Genevu ugreemenL, LIe rencI und BrILIsI IoreIgn mInIsLers
quIckIy usserLed LIuL Assud wouId go us purL oI LIe ugreed LrunsILIonuI governmenL.
See PeLer BeuumonL und SIIv MuIIk, SyrIu crIsIs: Genevu LuIks sound deuLI kneII Ior
Assud regIme, LIe Gucrdicn, 1 JuIy zo1z, uvuIIubIe uL ILLp:JJwww.guurdIun.co.ukJ
worIdJzo1zJjuIJo1JsyrIu-crIsIs-genevu-LuIks-ussud.
5
GuIdIng prIncIpIes
AIeud oI LIe proposed peuce conIerence, LIe US und
RussIu sIouId eIuboruLe on LIe Moscow undersLundIng
by LrunsIuLIng LIuL orIgInuI Genevu CommunIqu InLo
IIve guIdIng prIncIpIes Ior LIe proposed Genevu peuce
conIerence
11
:
1. All pcrties must recommit to c sustcined cessction
oj crmed tiolence (ArLIcIe u oI LIe orIgInuI Genevu
CommunIqu). TIIs mIgIL IncIude reconsLILuLIng LIe UnILed
NuLIons SupervIsIon MIssIon In SyrIu (UNSMS) us und
wIen condILIons uIIow.
1z
I IL Is possIbIe Lo creuLe roIIIng
und expundIng pockeLs In wIIcI ceuseIIres IoId, LIe cuse Ior
re-InLroducIng UNSMS sIouId be gIven greuLer prIorILy. L
sIouId be undersLood LIuL LIe commILmenL Lo LIIs prIncIpIe
comes IIrsL; ILs ImpIemenLuLIon, sImIIur Lo oLIer cIuuses Iere,
wIII Luke LIme.
z. Action Group members cre opposed to cn jurther
militcrizction oj the conjlict (ArLIcIe 1zb). mpIemenLuLIon
oI LIIs cIuuse wouId requIre LIuL uII sIdes ugree Lo sLem ruLIer
LIun Increuse LIe IIow oI weupons Lo SyrIu`s wurrIng purLIes.
. The sotereint, independence, unit cnd territoricl
interit oj the Sricn Arcb Republic must be respected
(ArLIcIe 11u). TIere Is u Iuge dIIIerence beLween u new
poIILIcuI eIIorL Lo wIIcI uII sIdes Iuve ugreed, u key provIsIon
oI wIIcI Is LIuL LIe LerrILorIuI InLegrILy oI SyrIu wIII remuIn
InLucL, versus u conLInued conIIIcL In wIIcI SyrIu`s very
exIsLence Is u poInL oI conLesLuLIon. A poIILIcuI process LIuL
cIurIIIes LIIs common gouI Is uIreudy ImporLunL progress und
u seIIIng poInL Ior some oI LIe regIonuI pIuyers LIuL wIII need
Lo be brougIL on bourd Ior LIIs dIpIomuLIc eIIorL.
q. The estcblishment oj c trcnsitioncl oternin bod thct
ccn estcblish c neutrcl entironment in uhich the trcnsition
ccn tcle plcce, uith the trcnsitioncl oternin bod
exercisin jull executite pouers. It could include members
oj the present Goternment cnd the opposition cnd other
roups cnd shcll be jormed on the bcsis oj mutucl consent
(ArLIcIe qu). TrunsILIon Lo u dIIIerenL order In SyrIu Is key,
LIougI LIere cun be no pre-condILIons on wIuL LIuL new
SyrIu wIII Iook IIke. L wIII Iuve Lo be sIuped by SyrIuns uL
LIe negoLIuLIng LubIe. TIe cenLruI quesLIons Lo be uddressed
wIII IncIude: To wIom und on wIuL busIs Lo LrunsIer power?
WIuL Is LIe roIe und LImIng oI consLILuLIonuI reIorm und
eIecLIons? WIuL Lype oI eIecLIons sIouId be IeId? WIuL wIII
Assud`s roIe be, IncIudIng In uny presIdenLIuI voLe? No ugreed
ouLcome cun produce u reLurn Lo LIe sLuLus quo unLe oI LIe
pre-uprIsIng Dumuscus governmenL; uny poIILIcuI process by
ILs nuLure wIII Iuvour cIunge und reIorm.
. The Goternment must cllou immedicte cnd jull
humcnitcricn cccess b humcnitcricn orcnizctions to cll
crecs cjjected b the jihtin (ArLIcIe d). HumunILurIun
uId Is crILIcuIIy needed. As soon us LIere Is u poIILIcuI openIng,
one oI LIe IIrsL prIorILIes sIouId be Lo supporL greuLer uccess
Ior IumunILurIun reIIeI. A number oI Europeun UnIon
member sLuLes us weII us Norwuy Iuve uIreudy Luken LIe Ieud
In IumunILurIun uId IundIng, wILI LIe Lop IIve EU donors
beIng LIe UK, Germuny, HoIIund, runce, und Sweden.
1

BuIIdIng u couIILIon Ior de-escuIuLIon
To be eIIecLIve, LIe Genevu conIerence`s sponsors wIII Iuve Lo
puL LogeLIer u couIILIon LIuL IncIudes uII oI LIe core regIonuI
ucLors. So Iur, none oI LIem Iuve been suIIIcIenLIy soId on LIe
Ideu oI de-escuIuLIon und dIpIomucy - us LIeIr ucLIons, mosLIy
In sLokIng LIe conIIIcL, ImpIy. TIe conIerence`s sponsors wIII
LIereIore need Lo use LIe IImILed Ieveruge LIey Iuve Lo brIng
reIucLunL uIIIes und Ioes suIIIcIenLIy onsIde. Over LIme, boLI
sIdes wIII Iuve Lo ugree Lo decreuse und evenLuuIIy sLop LIe
suppIy oI weupons. BuL In order Lo reucI sucI un ugreemenL,
IL wIII be necessury Ior LIe WesL Lo enguge In deLuII wILI LIe
InLeresLs oI LIe key reIevunL ucLors.
Russic
RussIu`s muIn InLeresL In LIe conIIIcL In SyrIu Is LIe prIncIpIe
oI non-InLerIerence In muLLers oI sLuLe sovereIgnLy. Moscow
uIso empIusIses LIe rudIcuI sIumIsL Iorces In LIe opposILIon
und vIews wILI LrepIduLIon u cIvII wur wILI desLubIIIsIng
spIIIover poLenLIuI Ior RussIu`s own LumuILuous Cuucusus
repubIIcs. TIe Iesson LIuL RussIu Ius Ieurned Irom decudes
oI experIence Is LIuL proIonged InLervenLIons rureIy brIng
greuLer securILy und prosperILy Lo LIIs neIgIbourIng regIon
oI LIe brouder MIddIe EusL. RussIu uIso Ius u secondury
InLeresL In LIe conLInued IuncLIonIng oI ILs permunenL
MedILerruneun porL uL TurLus, und LIe weII-beIng oI LIe
eusLern OrLIodox CIrIsLIun communILy In SyrIu Is u concern
LIuL resonuLes wILI domesLIc pubIIc opInIon.
TIe condILIon Ior Moscow`s supporL Ior peuce In SyrIu
wIII LIereIore be Lo creuLe u process LIuL IL does noL see
us ImposIng u pro-WesLern or sIumIsL soIuLIon on LIe
counLry. Pre-empLIveIy seuIIng Assud`s IuLe Is LIereIore u
non-sLurLer Ior RussIu, boLI symboIIcuIIy und prucLIcuIIy
gIven LIuL RussIu cunnoL unywuy Iorce Assud ouL. Once u
poIILIcuI process Is seL In LruIn, RussIu mIgIL uIso be beLLer
ubIe Lo work ILs IumIIIurILy wILI LIe SyrIun regIme, IncIudIng
securILy esLubIIsImenL oIIIcIuIs wILI wIom IL Ius sLrong
IInks, Lo move IL Iorwurd.
11 or LIe orIgInuI Genevu communIqu see: ILLp:JJwww.unog.cIJ8oz6EDDoo6BqC
zEJ%z8ILLpNewsByYeur_en%zqJ18;oDBCqzq6B1C1z;AzDoo6o6q6B?Open
DocumenL.
1 UNSMS wus u UnILed NuLIons peucekeepIng mIssIon seL up In zo1z. Ls mIssIon wus
suspended due Lo LIe escuIuLIng vIoIence. See ILLp:JJwww.un.orgJenJpeucekeepIngJ
mIssIonsJunsmIsJ Ior deLuIIs ubouL LIe orIgInuI UNSMS mIssIon.
1 or EU hnuncIuI supporL, see ECHO ucLsIeeL, Europeun CommIssIon, 11 Muy
zo1, uvuIIubIe uL ILLp:JJec.europu.euJecIoJhIesJuIdJcounLrIesJIucLsIeeLsJsyrIu_
en.pdI.
6
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TeIrun Is LIe SyrIun governmenL`s mosL ImporLunL muLerIuI
bucker: IL provIdes experLIse, LruInIng, weupons, und even
IIgILers, us weII us sImIIur supporL Irom ILs cIose ebunese
uIIy HezboIIuI. TeIrun Is very unIIkeIy Lo be successIuIIy
squeezed ouL oI SyrIu. RuLIer, IL Is IIkeIy Lo muInLuIn u Iong-
Lerm ubIIILy Lo projecL InIIuence In SyrIu II noL LIrougI sLuLe
sLrucLures LIen vIu wIuL wIII become desLubIIIsIng non-
sLuLe ucLors. run`s ongoIng InIIuence In ruq und ebunon
Is u cIeur demonsLruLIon oI ILs ubIIILy Lo secure ILs InLeresLs
uguInsL LIe wIII oI LIe WesL und LIe GuII - u Lusk LIuL IL Is
weII posILIoned Lo repeuL In SyrIu gIven ILs deep uIIIunces
In LIe counLry. n sIorL, TeIrun muLLers. runIun oIIIcIuIs
Iuve sIgnuIIed InILIuI supporL Ior u peuce conIerence und
Ior u poIILIcuI process. TIey Iuve muInLuIned cIunneIs wILI
some opposILIon Ieuders, IncIudIng Mouz uI-KIuLIb,
1q
und
wILI LIe WesL`s uIIIes, IncIudIng recenL vIsILs by LIe IoreIgn
mInIsLer, AII Akbur SuIeII, Lo Jordun
1
und SuudI ArubIu
und purLIcIpuLIon In EgypLIun PresIdenL MoIumed MorsI`s
regIonuI quurLeL. BuL II run Is cuL ouL oI dIpIomucy, IL wIII
conLInue Lo be u spoIIer.
TIe cenLruIILy oI TeIrun`s supporL Ior Assud wIII LIereIore
necessILuLe engugemenL wILI run LIuL goes beyond LIe
nucIeur IIIe. n IucL, LIe IuIIure oI regIonuI dIpIomucy over
LIe SyrIu crIsIs Is In purL LIe producL oI InLensIIyIng LensIons
wILI run over ILs nucIeur progrumme und LIe WesL`s sInguIur
Iocus on LIe nucIeur IIIe In ILs deuIIngs wILI TeIrun. A key
perceIved uIm oI InLernuLIonuI pro-rebeI poIIcy Is Lo dIsIodge
SyrIu Irom LIe runIun orbIL, weukenIng TeIrun`s regIonuI
InIIuence uL u LIme wIen LIe WesL Is uIso seekIng subsLunLIuI
nucIeur concessIons.
16
RemovuI oI LIe SyrIun regIme Ius
come Lo be perceIved us u sLeppIng sLone In u compreIensIve
ussuuIL on run, InjecLIng exIsLenLIuI underLones InLo
TeIrun`s undersLundIng oI LIe crIsIs und LIuL oI ILs ebunese
uIIy, HezboIIuI.
MucI us Europeuns mIgIL IIke Lo weuken run, LIey musL
prIorILIse und Iocus on prevenLIng LIe emergence oI u
SomuIIu on LIe MedILerruneun. TeIrun`s percepLIon LIuL
LIe WesL wunLs Lo emucIuLe ILs regIonuI InIIuence on LIe wuy
Lo regIme cIunge Is sLrengLIened by LIe WesL`s reIusuI Lo
enguge on brouder regIonuI Issues. EsLubIIsIIng u degree oI
common ground on SyrIu muy uIIevIuLe some oI LIe runIun
IeudersIIp`s more exIsLenLIuI concerns regurdIng WesLern
gouIs und even enIunce LIe prospecL Ior Iorwurd movemenL
on LIe nucIeur IIIe. SenIor Europeun dIpIomuLs Iuve poInLed
ouL LIuL LIe nucIeur LuIks wILI run were mosL IruILIuI In
zoo-zooq wIen Irumed Lo encompuss oLIer buskeLs oI
Issues.
1;
run`s InLeresLs In SyrIu IncIude deIendIng ILs regIonuI cIouL,
us weII us ILs uccess Lo HezboIIuI In ebunon, wIIcI IL Ieurs
couId be cIuIIenged by u posL-Assud SunnI regIonuI order.
run wIII drIve u Iurd burguIn, buL noL necessurIIy un ubsoIuLIsL
one. AILIougI IL Is In u sLrong posILIon In SyrIu, LIe conIIIcL Is
druInIng run oI ILs Iurd und soIL power und credIbIIILy In LIe
regIon. L Is exLendIng supporL Lo Assud uL u LIme wIen run`s
economy Is suIIerIng Irom punIsIIng InLernuLIonuI suncLIons.
GIven LIese cIuIIenges, IL mIgIL come Lo uccepL some Iorm oI
power-sIurIng LrunsILIon In SyrIu LIuL guurunLees IL und ILs
uIIIes InIIuence. BuL onIy u poIILIcuI process wIII provIde un
opporLunILy Lo guIn u more grunuIur upprecIuLIon oI wIIcI
runIun InLeresLs ure purumounL und wIIcI ure negoLIubIe.
Turle
AILIougI Turkey Ius expressed u preIerence Ior mIIILury
ucLIon In SyrIu, Ankuru wIII onIy InLervene under u wIder
InLernuLIonuI umbreIIu. Turkey`s posILIon on SyrIu under LIe
Assuds Ius sIIILed drumuLIcuIIy: Irom IosLIIILy In LIe 1qqos
Lo u subsequenL rupprocIemenL, wILI sLrong commercIuI
IInks und TurkIsI PrIme MInIsLer Recep TuyyIp Erdogun
deveIopIng cIose personuI reIuLIons wILI BusIur uI-Assud
IImseII. TIe currenL unLugonIsm runs deeper; u IIIp buck
Lowurds renewed reIuLIons wILI Assud Is unIIkeIy buL wouId
noL be unprecedenLed.
18
Turkey Is uIso exLremeIy InvesLed
In LIe MusIIm BroLIerIood-domInuLed SyrIun NuLIonuI
CouncII (SNC), wIIcI Is IdeoIogIcuIIy cIose Lo Erdogun`s
ruIIng AKP purLy und Is IurgeIy bused In Turkey. Turkey Ius
IosLed, convened, und sIuped LIe opposILIon, IncIudIng LIe
ree SyrIun Army, und Ius been u vILuI conduIL Ior urms
suppIIes InLo SyrIu. Turkey bIumes Assud Ior severuI sIeIIIng
IncIdenLs InLo ILs LerrILory, und us beIng beIInd LIe recenL
ReyIunII bombIngs, wIIcI kIIIed dozens oI peopIe.
However, us LIe ReyIunII bombIngs IIIusLruLe, escuIuLIon In
SyrIu, und LIe poLenLIuI unruveIIIng oI LIe counLry us u resuIL,
Is u doubIe-edged sword Ior Turkey. Turkey Is uIreudy IosL
Lo un esLImuLed qoo,ooo reIugees, ILs own eLInIc mosuIc
und IomeIund securILy ure comIng under IncreusIng sLruIn
Irom bIowbuck Irom SyrIu, und LIe deuI wILI LIe KurdIsLun
Workers` PurLy (PKK) - LIe cenLrepIece oI Erdogun`s LIIrd
Lerm - mIgIL be LIreuLened II SyrIu deveIopmenLs Ieud Lo
greuLer KurdIsI mIIILuncy or LIe use oI KurdIsI groups
Lo undermIne LIe peuce or Ieed u wIder KurdIsI drIve Lo
Independence.
1q SuIeII meL uI-KIuLIb on LIe sIdeIInes oI LIe MunIcI securILy conIerence In ebruury
zo1. KIuIed Yucoub OweIs und SLepIen Brown, SyrIun opposILIon LuIks wILI
RussIu und run, ReuLers, z ebruury zo1, uvuIIubIe uL ILLp:JJwww.reuLers.comJ
urLIcIeJzo1JozJozJus-syrIu-crIsIs-IdUSBREq1ooKVzo1ozoz.
1g DurIng LIuL vIsIL SuIeII commenLed: We Iuve cuIIed Ior LuIks beLween LIe SyrIun
governmenL und LIe peuceIuI opposILIon Lo Iorm u LrunsILIonuI governmenL. run,
Jordun urge SyrIu Lo sIL wILI opposILIon, AP, ; Muy zo1, uvuIIubIe uL ILLp:JJengIIsI.
uIurubIyu.neLJenJNewsJmIddIe-eusLJzo1JoJo;Jrun-Jordun-urge-SyrIu-Lo-sIL-wILI-
opposILIon.ILmI.
16 See, Ior InsLunce, EIruIm HuIevy, run`s AcIIIIes` HeeI, LIe Neu Yorl Times,
; ebruury zo1z, uvuIIubIe uL ILLp:JJwww.nyLImes.comJzo1zJozJo8JopInIonJ
Lo-weuken-Irun-sLurL-wILI-syrIu.ILmI?_r=o; und Jumes P. RubIn, TIe ReuI
Reuson Lo nLervene In SyrIu, Iorein Polic, q June zo1z, uvuIIubIe uL ILLp:JJ
www.IoreIgnpoIIcy.comJurLIcIesJzo1zJo6JoqJLIe_reuI_reuson_Lo_InLervene_In_
syrIu?puge=o,1.
1, AuLIor InLervIew wILI senIor EU oIhcIuI, BrusseIs, Muy zo1.
1S Erdogun reconcIIed wILI srueI onIy weeks uILer cuIIIng ZIonIsm u crIme uguInsL
IumunILy. See srueI condemns ZIonIsm commenLs by Turkey`s PM Erdogun,
BBC News, 1 MurcI zo1, uvuIIubIe uL ILLp:JJwww.bbc.co.ukJnewsJworId-
europe-z16z8;;.
7
TIus Ankuru Is commILLed Lo Assud`s depurLure buL IL Is
uIso uwure oI LIe rIsks oI escuIuLIon. Erdogun und oreIgn
MInIsLer AImeL DuvuLogIu prIde LIemseIves on beIng LIe
regIon`s dIpIomuLIc uvunL-gurde. ConsequenLIy, II LIere Is
dIpIomucy Lo be done, IL Is noL Iurd Lo see Iow Ankuru`s
IeudersIIp mIgIL be soId on LIe Ideu, especIuIIy II Turkey
rIsks beIng IeIL InLernuLIonuIIy IsoIuLed by noL comIng
on bourd und II IL Is grunLed u prIvIIeged roIe (despILe LIe
deLerIoruLIon oI IIs reIuLIonsIIp wILI Assud, Erdogun Is sLIII
one oI LIe Iew poLenLIuI InLermedIurIes beLween LIe WesL,
LIe GuII, und run, und uIso remuIns on good Lerms wILI LIe
RussIuns). Turkey uIso vuIues ILs cIose reIuLIons wILI LIe US
und LIe Obumu-Erdogun personuI connecLIon Is unusuuIIy
good. A concerLed US pusI Ior LIe peuce conIerence wIII
LIereIore curry weIgIL In Ankuru, us demonsLruLed by
Erdogun`s uppurenL uccepLunce oI Genevu durIng IIs US
vIsIL In Muy.
Scudi Arcbic
DespILe SuudI ArubIu`s sLrong mIIILury supporL Ior LIe rebeIs,
IL Ius grown somewIuL edgy In reucLIon Lo LIe rIse oI jIIudIsLs
und MusIIm BroLIerIood Iorces In SyrIu. RIyudI knows LIuL,
II sIumIsL groups Luke conLroI In Dumuscus, LIey evenLuuIIy
couId Lurn IosLIIe Lo LIe regIonuI order LIuL SuudI ArubIu
Iuvours. AL severuI LImes over LIe pusL Lwo yeurs, RIyudI Ius
reporLedIy sIowed LIe puce oI supporL, IncIudIng weupons
IIows, Lo SyrIu, wIIIe uIso pIvoLIng supporL Lowurds more
moderuLe IIgILers In LIe souLI oI LIe counLry In u bId Lo sLem
LIe rIse oI exLremIsLs. L Ius uIso been somewIuL uLLenLIve Lo
US enLreuLIes Lo bIock LIe provIsIon oI more sopIIsLIcuLed
weupons Lo LIe rebeIs.
1q
or SuudI ArubIu, LIe Issue Is noL
so mucI LIe regIme, us Assud und LIey do noL wunL Lo see
rudIcuIs LukIng over.
TIere ure compeLIng cumps wILIIn LIe royuI courL - wILI
PrInce Bundur bIn SuILun IeudIng LIe Iuwks und PrInce
MoIummed bIn NuyeI uL LIe Ieud oI u more cuuLIous
cump IIkeIy Lo be on-bourd wILI de-escuIuLIon.
zo
Any
SuudI buckLruckIng on supporL Ior LIe opposILIon wIII be
enLIusIusLIcuIIy endorsed by LIe UnILed Arub EmIruLes
(UAE), wIIcI seems Lo Iuve u severe cuse oI buyer`s remorse
gIven ILs exLreme uIIergy Lo sIumIsLs, und Is reporLed even
Lo be sendIng IeeIers Lo eIemenLs oI LIe Assud regIme. As LIe
domInunL GuII ucLor, RIyudI`s supporL Is crILIcuI - noL jusL Ior
LIe momenLum LIuL LIIs wIII LIrow beIInd uny dIpIomuLIc
upproucI, buL uIso In IeIpIng sLop LIe consIderubIe LIde oI
prIvuLe money LIuL Is IIowIng InLo LIe SyrIun opposILIon
Irom KuwuIL us weII us SuudI ArubIu.
Qctcr
Over LIe IusL Lwo yeurs, QuLur Ius emerged us perIups LIe
mosL IndependenL und IeusL rIsk-uverse pIuyer In LIe regIon.
GIven LIe eIIorLs IL Ius uIreudy mude Lowurds dIsIodgIng
Assud und LIe very sLrong IInks IL Ius deveIoped wILI LIe
opposILIon, IL couId be LIe IurdesL Lo persuude Lo cIunge
course. However, wIIIe DoIu mIgIL be LIe IusL und mosL
vocuI IoIdouL - und u deep-pockeLed one uL LIuL - were un
emergIng LIde Lo geL beIInd dIpIomucy und LIe de-escuIuLIon
ImperuLIve, LIen even QuLur mIgIL grow uncomIorLubIe
swImmIng uIone. So, II DoIu Is suIIIcIenLIy ouL on u IImb, IL
couId prompL u wIIIIngness Lo move Lowurds u Iess muxImuIIsL
posILIon. Moreover, II SyrIu`s ImmedIuLe neIgIbours cun be
persuuded Lo bIock urms IIowIng InLo SyrIu vIu LIeIr borders,
QuLur`s ubIIILy Lo ucL us u dIsrupLIve pIuyer wIII be Lempered.
DoIu uIso Ius u sLruLegIc und securILy reIuLIonsIIp wILI LIe
US Lo LIInk ubouL.
Isrcel
srueI wIII noL be purLy Lo uny regIonuI deuI, buL ILs opposILIon
Lo InvoIvIng run In u regIonuI eIIorL wIII cerLuInIy geL u
sympuLIeLIc IeurIng In WusIIngLon und beyond. However,
LIe dungers ussocIuLed wILI LIe currenL LrujecLory oI LIe SyrIu
conIIIcL couId Iorce un srueII re-LIInk even II LIuL IuIIs sIorL
oI endorsIng muILIpIe-Issue engugemenL wILI run. TIere
Is uIreudy uwureness In srueI LIuL IL Is noL In ILs securILy
InLeresLs Lo Iuve un ungoverned spuce on ILs norLIern
border und u proIIIeruLIon oI uI-Quedu-Lype groups so cIose
Lo Iome, uIong wILI LIe prospecL oI InsLubIIILy spIIIIng over
InLo ILs cIosesL regIonuI purLner, Jordun (und poLenLIuI new
cIuIIenges In ebunon).
srueI Is concerned by Increused secLurIun-drIven SunnI
rudIcuIIsm on ILs borders, buL LIIs Is sLIII ouLweIgIed by ILs
desIre Lo mInImuIIse run`s IooLprInL In LIe regIon. srueI Ius
uIreudy Luken ucLIon In SyrIu, reporLedIy LurgeLIng weupons
IL cIuIms were bound Ior HezboIIuI, wIIIe ImpIyIng IL Ius
no InLenLIon Lo be drugged In beyond LIe gouIs IL Ius seL.
SLIII, LIuL ucLIon Ius Ied Lo u IeuLIng up oI LIe GoIun border,
prevIousIy srueI`s quIeLesL.
srueI wIII noL pubIIcIy supporL u dIpIomuLIc process Irom
wIIcI IL Is excIuded und In wIIcI run Is IncIuded. However,
IL mIgIL be possIbIe Lo mILIguLe some oI LIe pusIbuck
by buIIdIng u consLILuency InsIde LIe srueII securILy
esLubIIsImenL Ior LIe de-escuIuLIon upproucI und muke IL
eusIer Ior LIe US und Europe Lo muke LIe cuse Ior IL. srueI
Is uIso wury oI more sopIIsLIcuLed weupons enLerIng SyrIu -
wIoever LIey ure InLended Ior.
1q RoberL . WorLI, CILIng US eurs, Arub AIIIes ImIL SyrIun RebeI AId, LIe Neu
Yorl Times, 6 OcLober zo1z, uvuIIubIe uL ILLp:JJwww.nyLImes.comJzo1zJ1oJo;J
worIdJmIddIeeusLJcILIng-us-Ieurs-urub-uIIIes-IImIL-uId-Lo-syrIun-rebeIs.
ILmI?pugewunLed=uII.
o AuLIor conversuLIon wILI Europeun umbussudor bused In RIyudI, Muy zo1.
8
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Y
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I
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R
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2
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e
u
Dther neihbours
SyrIu`s oLIer neIgIbours - Jordun, ruq, und ebunon - ure
Iess crILIcuI pIuyers buL wIII uIso cIeurIy need Lo be brougIL
InLo LIe process. GIven LIuL LIey conLroI mosL oI LIe rouLes
In und ouL oI SyrIu on wIIcI exLernuI buckIng Is dependenL,
LIeIr consenL und wIIIIngness Lo supporL u poIILIcuI upproucI
couId be key Lo ensurIng ILs IeusIbIIILy. AII LIree counLrIes ure
uIreudy wILnessIng severe cIuIIenges us u resuIL oI conIIIcL In
SyrIu, und uII LIree wouId be IIkeIy Lo supporL un InILIuLIve
uImed uL sLubIIIsIng SyrIu und LIereby LIe regIon.
or Jordun, In uddILIon Lo LIe sIgnIIIcunL sLruIn Imposed
by reIugees, LIere ure concerns LIuL LIe conIIIcL Is IeedIng
poIILIcuI und mIIILunL Iorces LIuL couId In LIme dIrecLIy
desLubIIIse LIe kIngdom. Ammun Is IeurIuI oI LIe spreud oI
mIIILunL jIIudIsL Iorces, IncIudIng u sIgnIIIcunL JordunIun
conLIngenL, wIIcI couId evenLuuIIy Lurn on Jordun, especIuIIy
II SyrIu Lurns InLo un ungovernubIe no-mun`s Iund.
z1
AL LIe
sume LIme, LIe HusIemILe monurcIy Is nervous LIuL LIe
IncreusIng sLrengLI oI LIe SyrIun MusIIm BroLIerIood mIgIL
boosL ILs own BroLIerIood bruncI, LIe sIumIc AcLIon ronL,
wIIcI Is uIreudy LIe counLry`s domInunL opposILIon purLy.
TIe kIng Ius conLInued Lo express IIs supporL Ior u poIILIcuI
soIuLIon even us Ie Ius uIIowed LIe GuII Lo use IIs LerrILory
Lo LrunsIL weupons InLo SyrIu. Jordun`s cIose reIuLIonsIIp
wILI und dependence on LIe WesL und LIe US In purLIcuIur
wIII IeIp convInce IL.
MeunwIIIe, In ruq, LIe conIIIcL In SyrIu Is IueIIIng ongoIng
secLurIun dIvIsIons und IeIpIng Lo empower mIIILunL SunnIs
wIo wunL Lo see PrIme MInIsLer NourI uI-MuIIkI deposed.
MuIIkI`s SIIu-domInuLed governmenL Ieurs LIuL posL-Assud
SunnI ruIe In SyrIu wouId creuLe greuLer regIonuI cIuIIenges
Lo ILs posILIon und ILs remIL In LIe SunnI provInce borderIng
SyrIu. Muy zo1 Ius wILnessed u pronounced spIke In
vIoIence wILIIn ruq und renewed cIuIIenges Lo ruq`s own
LerrILorIuI InLegrILy. TIe ruqI governmenL Ius supporLed un
IncIusIve poIILIcuI LrunsILIon LIuL wouId guurunLee uguInsL u
IuII SunnI vIcLory wIIIe uIIowIng run Lo use ILs LerrILory Lo
LrunsIL suppIIes Lo Assud Lo ensure LIuL Ie Is noL deIeuLed
mIIILurIIy. SecurIng LIe ucLIve supporL oI BugIdud sIouId
be u munugeubIe Lusk und u useIuI uddILIon Lo LIe couIILIon
Ior de-escuIuLIon - uIbeIL one LIuL does noL IncIude uII LIe
poIILIcuI und urmed Iorces In ruq.
n ebunon, LIe Lwo IeudIng groups on eILIer sIde oI LIe
dIvIde, LIe SunnI-domInuLed MurcI 1q couIILIon und LIe
HezboIIuI-domInuLed MurcI 8 uIIIunce, ure deepIy InvesLed
In LIeIr respecLIve wurrIng uIIIes In SyrIu. AL LIe sume LIme,
ebunon Ius LIus Iur uvoIded LIe worsL Ieurs oI conLugIon
buL Is comIng under IncreusIng sLruIn. TIe mosL LIuL cun
now be Ioped Is Ior LIe purLIes Lo IuII In IIne wILI LIeIr
exLernuI puLrons II LIose puLrons cun be persuuded Lo Ieun
beIInd u poIILIcuI Lruck. However, gIven LIe proIIIeruLIon
oI uuLonomous und IncreusIngIy rudIcuI SunnI ucLors In
ebunon, LIIs wouId cerLuInIy noL be compreIensIve.
As purL oI LIIs regIonuI ouLreucI, Europe und LIe oLIer peuce
conIerence conveners mIgIL over LIme need Lo eIuboruLe u
new nurruLIve Ior IrumIng LIIs eIIorL, one LIuL cun resonuLe
domesLIcuIIy und regIonuIIy. SucI u nurruLIve mIgIL jusL
be sLurLIng Lo emerge: IL IdenLIIIes secLurIun de-escuIuLIon,
und by exLensIon de-rudIcuIIsuLIon und conIIIcL spIIIover
munugemenL, us LIe prImury regIonuI poIIcy gouI. TIIs
IrumIng ucknowIedges LIuL un urc oI secLurIun conIIIcL, even
II InsLrumenLuIIsed In muny InsLunces us purL oI u brouder
sLruggIe Ior poIILIcuI power, Is rupIdIy emergIng us LIe
greuLesL LIreuL Lo und Irom LIe regIon.
A dIpIomuLIc sLruLegy Ior Genevu
n order Lo brIng LIe dIIIerenL purLIes InLo LIe process, LIe
WesL wIII need Lo reucI ouL In un unprecedenLed IusIIon Lo
Assud`s buckers, prIncIpuIIy RussIu und run, wIo provIde
Assud wILI crILIcuI poIILIcuI und mIIILury cover. So Iur, WesLern
Ieuders Iuve been unprepured Lo do LIIs. BuL u poIILIcuI deuI
wIII onIy be possIbIe II RussIu und run Iuve u sLuke In u
process LIrougI wIIcI LIey cun secure enougI oI LIeIr own
InLeresLs. Europe wIII uIso need Lo press ILs own uIIIes In LIe
GuII und Turkey Lo InIIuence LIe opposILIon. TIuL IncIudes
IuvIng u more robusL sLruLegIc InLeresLs dIuIogue wILI GuII
uIIIes LIun Europe Is used Lo IuvIng - ucknowIedgIng LIuL
mujor commercIuI und deIence conLrucL LIes muLLer, buL ure
noL LIe enLIreLy oI LIIs reIuLIonsIIp, IncIudIng In ILs securILy
dImensIons.
To succeed In gIvIng dIpIomucy u cIunce, LIe Kerry-uvrov
InILIuLIve wIII need very cureIuI sequencIng. TIe US und
RussIu sIouId IIrsL secure buy-In Irom LIe oLIer LIree
permunenL members oI LIe UnILed NuLIons SecurILy CouncII
(LIe UK, runce, und CIInu). WILI u P consensus, IL mIgIL be
possIbIe Lo ugree u SecurILy CouncII resoIuLIon, uILIougI LIe
purLIes sIouId uvoId LryIng Lo obLuIn u CIupLer ; resoIuLIon.
zz

I u consensuuI resoIuLIon Is noL obLuInubIe, IL sIouId be
possIbIe Lo Issue u presIdenLIuI sLuLemenL, buL even II LIere
Is no sIured ugreemenL umong LIe P Lo codIIy LIIngs In LexL
uL LIIs sLuge, LIen LIuL sIouId noL be un obsLucIe Lo pursuIng
LIe dIpIomuLIc InILIuLIve. AL LIuL poInL, und In udvunce oI
LIe proposed peuce conIerence, LIe P sIouId Lry Lo secure
supporL Ior LIe upproucI Irom LIeIr respecLIve regIonuI uIIIes.
JoInL SpecIuI RepresenLuLIve Ior SyrIu ukIdur BruIImI
sIouId Luke u IeudIng roIe In LIIs eIIorL. BruIImI Is one oI
LIe Iew IIgures wIo cun reucI ouL Lo uII InLernuLIonuI pIuyers
InvoIved In LIe conIIIcL und muy be ubIe Lo medIuLe beLween
counLrIes oLIerwIse noL predIsposed Lo LuIkIng. AL presenL
1 Murud BuLuI uI-SIIsIunI, Jordun`s jIIudIsLs druwn Lo SyrIu conIcL, BBC News, o
OcLober zo1z, uvuIIubIe uL ILLp:JJwww.bbc.co.ukJnewsJworId-mIddIe-eusL-zo1z;qq.
CIupLer ; UNSC resoIuLIons uuLIorIse ucLIons rungIng Irom suncLIons Lo mIIILury
Iorce. However, RussIu und CIInu Iuve opposed sucI u sLep on SyrIu, cIuImIng LIuL
IL Is u precursor Lo WesLern InLervenLIon. TIe UNSC used u CIupLer ; resoIuLIon Lo
InLervene In Ibyu In zo11.
9
BruIImI Is u joInL envoy oI LIe UN und Arub eugue. BuL,
gIven LIe Arub eugue`s ucLIve roIe In LIe conIIIcL, IL mIgIL be
more eIIecLIve II Ie were excIusIveIy u UN envoy.
z
Beyond BruIImI`s roIe, LIe US und Europe wouId be expecLed
Lo upproucI Turkey und LIe GuII us weII us Jordun und srueI;
RussIu und CIInu wouId be expecLed Lo upproucI run. TIere
wouId uIso be some overIup Iere - LIe RussIuns und CIInese,
oI course, Iuve reIuLIonsIIps wILI Turkey und LIe GuII LIuL
mIgIL useIuIIy be uLIIIsed. BoLI sIdes sIouId speuk Lo LIeIr
respecLIve key InLerIocuLors In ebunon und ruq. Europeuns
sIouId uIso enguge wILI EgypL, wIIcI, under MorsI, Ius
worked Lo udvunce u regIonuI consensus on SyrIu LIrougI
ILs quurLeL InILIuLIve und couId be weII posILIoned Lo buIId
supporL Ior LIe peuce conIerence.
n uddILIon Lo LIe roIes LIuL runce und LIe UK pIuy us
permunenL members oI LIe SecurILy CouncII, Europeuns
Iuve severuI oLIer poInLs oI enLry InLo LIIs process. As weII us
runce und LIe UK, HIgI RepresenLuLIve CuLIerIne AsILon
uIso Look purL In Genevu . AsILon Ius Luken u noLubIy Iow
proIIIe on SyrIu - perIups wILI jusLIIIcuLIon, gIven LIe
puucILy oI dIpIomucy LIus Iur. AILIougI sIe Ius u cIunneI
Lo run LIrougI Ier sLewurdsIIp oI LIe E+ LuIks on ILs
nucIeur progrumme, sIe Ius so Iur been reIucLunL Lo expund
Ier InLerucLIon wILI TeIrun buL sIouId now do so - uL IeusL
Ior LIe duruLIon oI LIe SyrIu dIpIomuLIc eIIorL. OLIer EU
member sLuLes wILI reIevunL conLucLs or Ieveruge, IncIudIng
possIbIy Germuny, mIgIL uIso useIuIIy work on run.
Member sLuLes ure due Lo Luke u coIIecLIve decIsIon on LIe
urms emburgo quesLIon uL LIe IorLIcomIng meeLIng oI LIe
oreIgn AIIuIrs CouncII In Muy. TIe UK und runce Iuve
been IookIng Lo use LIe IIILIng oI LIe EU urms emburgo Lo
guIn Ieveruge over RussIu, Assud, und IIs uIIIes, und wILI LIeIr
IrIends In LIe SyrIun opposILIon und LIe GuII. No negoLIuLIng
process cun ever be IuIIy LrunspurenL, buL, us wus urgued
ubove, LIIs upproucI Is unIIkeIy Lo muke securIng peuce more
IIkeIy. TIe drIIL Lowurds IIILIng LIe emburgo sIouId LrunsILIon
InLo u more IuII-LIrouLed endorsemenL oI LIe new dIpIomuLIc
eIIorLs und LIe meeLIng`s concIusIons couId useIuIIy reIIecL u
newIound embruce oI de-escuIuLIon. n LruLI, Iowever, LIe
Europeun urms emburgo Issue Is someLIIng oI u red IerrIng:
even II LIe IormuI SyrIu emburgo Is dropped, LIere ure
exIsLIng common EU posILIons regurdIng urms exporLs und
conIIIcL zones, wIIcI wouId sLIII uppIy.
zq
AIong wILI LIe US
und srueI, Europeuns wouId remuIn reIucLunL Lo pIuce more
ImpucLIuI weuponry InLo sucI un unpredIcLubIe envIronmenL.
TIere Is uIso u more InLImuLe core rIends oI SyrIu Group,
known us LIe ondon 11, wIIcI IncIudes Germuny und LuIy
uIongsIde LIe UK und runce, In u groupIng LIuL spuns uII
LIe key regIonuI buckers oI LIe opposILIon.
z
L meL uguIn
In Ammun, on zz Muy, uL LIe IoreIgn mInIsLer IeveI. TIe
US pIus LIe Europeun Iour sIouId presenL u unILed IronL,
mukIng LIe rIends oI SyrIu Group un ImporLunL Iorum In
wIIcI Lo pusI LIe de-escuIuLIon InILIuLIve wILI regIonuI uIIIes
und LIe opposILIon.
rom IocuI Lo gIobuI und buck uguIn
TIe proLugonIsLs wILIIn SyrIu wouId be encouruged Lo
convene uL LIe upcomIng conIerence bused on LIese
prIncIpIes, ugreed by InLernuLIonuI purLIes. Europe wIII need
Lo IIrmIy press ILs opposILIon InLerIocuLors Lo geL beIInd LIIs
process, wIIIe RussIu und run wouId be expecLed Lo puL
pressure on LIe Assud regIme.
BuL, even wILI growIng InLernuLIonuI ugreemenL, no one
expecLs LIe conIIIcL Lo end soon. L Is, uILer uII, u conIIIcL IougIL
by SyrIuns; unLII enougI SyrIuns wunL Lo sLop IIgILIng, LIere
Is u IImIL Lo LIe progress LIuL cun be mude. SInce LIe counLry
Is uIreudy uwusI wILI weupons und so deepIy poIurIsed, u
poIILIcuI upproucI wIII cIeurIy noL Iuve ImmedIuLe resuILs on
LIe ground. TIere wIII be pIenLy oI groups reudy Lo dIsrupL
LIe process. TIe conIerence wIII LIereIore need Lo be ongoIng
ruLIer LIun u one-oII - wIuL reLIred BrILIsI dIpIomuL SIr
Jeremy GreensLock Ius cuIIed u conIerence-In-conLInuILy.
z6

TIIs sIouId be esLubIIsIed In ILs IounduLIonuI sLrucLure.
TIe IncIusIve nuLure oI LIe poIILIcuI process sIouId exLend
beyond regIme represenLuLIon Lo uIso IncIude compeLIng
opposILIon Iorces. TIe mIsLuke In decIurIng LIuL Assud Ius Lo
go wus repeuLed In LIe IIsLIng oI JubIuL uI-Nusru us u Lerror
group by LIe US. AI-Nusru IIgILers ure noL uII cuL Irom LIe
sume cIoLI: eIemenLs oI LIe group beIong In un IncIusIve
poIILIcuI process II LIey ure wIIIIng Lo joIn IL. ExperIence sIows
LIuL peuce processes ure mude by InvoIvIng urmed groups
ruLIer LIun by deuIIng excIusIveIy wILI moderuLes. TIe
conIerence sIouId uIso IncIude InLernuI poIILIcuI (unurmed)
opposILIon groups sucI us LIe NuLIonuI CoordInuLIon
CommILLee Ior LIe orces oI DemocruLIc CIunge (NCC), us
weII us reIevunL groups represenLIng mInorILIes sucI us LIe
Kurds. TIIs wIII Iorce LIe regIme Lo conIronL u dIIIerenL
dIIemmu und cIuIIenge Lo LIuL oI LIe buLLIeIIeId: IL wIII Iuve
Lo sIL down wILI LIe opposILIon, und Lo presenL u negoLIuLIng
posILIon und negoLIuLIng Leum.
As one exumpIe, LIe Arub eugue guve SyrIu`s seuL Lo LIe opposILIon. See AbduIIuI
RebIy, Arub eugue gIves SyrIun seuL Lo opposILIon, AssocIuLed Press, zq
MurcI zo1, uvuIIubIe uL ILLp:JJnews.yuIoo.comJurub-Ieugue-gIves-syrIun-seuL-
opposILIon-1q1;zoq.ILmI.
q TIe summury und oLIer codes und reguIuLIons regurdIng EU urms exporLs cun be
Iound uL Arms ExporL ConLroI, Europeun UnIon, uvuIIubIe uL ILLp:JJwww.eeus.
europu.euJnon-proIIIeruLIon-und-dIsurmumenLJurms-exporL-conLroIJIndex_en.ILm.
g TIe 11-nuLIon core rIends oI SyrIu Group comprIses LIe US, BrILuIn, runce, Turkey,
Germuny, LuIy, Jordun, SuudI ArubIu, LIe UAE, QuLur, und EgypL.
6 Jeremy GreensLock, or SyrIu, LIe cIvII wur Is sLIII Lo come, LIe Gucrdicn, 1 Muy
zo1, uvuIIubIe uL ILLp:JJwww.guurdIun.co.ukJcommenLIsIreeJzo1JmuyJ1JsyrIu-
cIvII-wur-new-dIpIomucy.
10
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TIe IrugmenLuLIon oI LIe opposILIon presenLs u Iuge
obsLucIe, buL compeLIng currenLs wILIIn LIe opposILIon wIII
no Ionger be urguIng umong LIemseIves In reIuLIon Lo pureIy
IypoLIeLIcuI mornIng-uILer scenurIos. TIe cIoIces wIII be
more reuI und LIe need Ior uIIIunces und InLernuI cuucusIng
more urgenL. TIe IucL LIuL Mouz uI-KIuLIb`s oIIer oI LuIks
wILI LIe regIme guLIered wIde popuIur supporL wILIIn SyrIu
poInLs Lo growIng IuLIgue umong LIe popuIuLIon und u desIre
Ior u wuy ouL oI LIe cycIe oI vIoIence.
As exLernuI supporL Ior escuIuLIon Is gruduuIIy wILIdruwn
und subsLunLIuI poIILIcuI pressure Lo move Lowurds LuIks Is
uppIIed, LIe Lwo sIdes couId be pusIed Lo LIe negoLIuLIng LubIe.
I LIe buckers oI boLI sIdes gIve up on seekIng LoLuI vIcLory
und embruce dIpIomucy, IL wIII gIve LIe wurrIng IucLIons In
SyrIu IncenLIves Lo cuL u deuI, purLIcuIurIy us conIIIcL IuLIgue
seLs In. CreuLIng u conLexL oI u poIILIcuI process, supporLed
by enougI exLernuI purLIes und wILI cerLuIn ugreed ruIes
oI LIe gume, sucI us LIe key prIncIpIes dIsLIIIed Irom LIe
zo1z Genevu CommunIqu, wIII resLore u roIe Ior poIILIcs -
someLIIng LIuL Ius been IuckIng Ior LIe IusL z6 monLIs.
IgILIng wIIIe LuIkIng - provIdIng u Iorum und puLLIng
pressure on LIe sIdes Lo LuIk even us LIey conLInue Lo IIgIL
- seLs In moLIon u dIIIerenL dynumIc; crucIuIIy, IL IegILImIses
LIe Ideu oI LIe poIILIcuI, breukIng LIuL Luboo. TIe ucL oI
IegILImuLIng dIuIogue opens prevIousIy cIosed opLIons und
IL empowers LIose on boLI sIdes seekIng u poIILIcuI exIL
sLruLegy, IncIudIng uL LIe IocuI IeveI.
L wouId be IooIIurdy noL Lo ucknowIedge LIuL, even wILI uII
oI LIe ubove, LIe Ieveruge LIuL AmerIcuns or Europeuns or
LIe P Iuve on LIe regIonuI pIuyers, IeL uIone LIe domesLIc
proLugonIsLs, Is onIy IImILed. TIere Is no eusy deuI Lo be cuL.
BuL LIe exLru-regIonuI purLIes Iuve sImpIy noL yeL mude u
concerLed und open-mInded uLLempL Lo IInd u deuI. And, Lo
be cIeur, IuIIed dIpIomucy couId become more dungerous
LIun no dIpIomucy uL uII II LIuL Ieuds Lo enIunced pressures
und LempLuLIons Lo embruce escuIuLIon und InLervenLIon.
PursuIng LIe dIpIomuLIc opLIon wIII LIereIore requIre
puLIence In LIe Iuce oI seLbucks, sLonewuIIIng, und demunds
Lo decIure LIme on LuIks.
TIe SyrIu crIsIs resembIes un uccordIon. L Ius been
sLreLcIed ouL Irom u IocuI conIIIcL Lo one LIuL encompusses
LIe neIgIbourIood, LIe regIon, und even gIobuI powers.
PursuIng dIpIomucy und de-escuIuLIon requIres squeezIng
LIuL uccordIon Irom LIe ouLsIde buck Lo ILs cenLre-poInL
InsIde SyrIu. TIe InILIuI eIIorL Ius Lo come Irom LIe ouLsIde
- Kerry und uvrov uppIIed u LenLuLIve IIrsL squeeze. TIe
ImperuLIve now Is Lo keep pusIIng.
I de-escuIuLIon guIns u IooLIoId, LIe InLerIm resuIL mIgIL
Iook someLIIng IIke presenL-duy ebunon, wILI compeLIng
power cenLres und u deepIy dysIuncLIonuI sLuLe. TIe counLry
wIII remuIn u puLcIwork oI regIme und rebeI-IeId LerrILorIes,
wILI weuk cenLruI governunce und no sIngIe monopoIy on LIe
use oI Iorce. TIIs Is noL u purLIcuIurIy uLLrucLIve ouLcome. YeL
IL remuIns preIerubIe In LIe InLerIm Lo u deepenIng secLurIun
cIvII wur In LIe wuke oI wIIcI SyrIu muy no Ionger exIsL.
ndeed, BruIImI Ius spoken oI LIe dunger oI SomuIIsuLIon
- LIuL Is, LIe coIIupse oI LIe sLuLe und LIe emergence oI
wurIords, mIIILIus und IIgILIng groups.
z;

, SyrIu couId Lurn InLo u new SomuIIu - UN`s BruIImI, BBC News, 6 November zo1z,
uvuIIubIe uL ILLp:JJwww.bbc.co.ukJnewsJworId-mIddIe-eusL-zozzo18.
11
AbouL LIe uuLIors
1ulien crnes-Dcce Is u SenIor PoIIcy eIIow uL LIe
Europeun CouncII on oreIgn ReIuLIons. PrevIousIy Ie wus
bused In SyrIu und EgypL us u reseurcIer und journuIIsL,
wrILIng Ior u number oI pubIIcuLIons IncIudIng LIe Wcll
Street 1ourncl, Christicn Science Monitor und LIe Iincncicl
Times. JuIIen uIso Ieuded LIe MENA prucLIce uL ConLroI
RIsks und worked Ior CIunneI q News. HIs pubIIcuLIons Ior
ECR IncIude Lebcnon: Contcinin Spilloter jrom Sriu
(zo1z) und Sric: Toucrds c Politiccl Solution (zo1z).
Dcniel Let Is LIe DIrecLor oI LIe MIddIe EusL und NorLI
AIrIcu Progrumme uL LIe Europeun CouncII on oreIgn
ReIuLIons. He Is uIso u SenIor eIIow uL LIe New AmerIcu
ounduLIon, und u IoundIng co-edILor oI IoreIgnpoIIcy.com`s
MIddIe EusL CIunneI. DunIeI wus prevIousIy un oIIIcIuI
negoLIuLor Ior LIe srueII governmenL In peuce LuIks wILI LIe
PuIesLInIuns under PrIme MInIsLers RubIn und Buruk.
AcknowIedgemenLs
TIe uuLIors wouId IIke Lo LIunk Murk eonurd, JucqueIIne
SIoen, DIck OosLIng, Huns KundnunI, Junu Kobzovu und
AnLIony DworkIn Ior LIeIr vuIuubIe commenLs und edILIng
oI LIe LexL. ECR wouId uIso IIke Lo exLend ILs LIunks Lo
LIe governmenLs oI Norwuy und Sweden Ior LIeIr ongoIng
supporL oI ECR`s MIddIe EusL und NorLI AIrIcu progrumme.
ABOUT ECFR
The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) is the
first pan-European think-tank. Launched in October 2007, its
objective is to conduct research and promote informed debate
across Europe on the development of coherent, effective and
values-based European foreign policy.
ECFR has developed a strategy with three distinctive elements
that define its activities:
A pan-European Council. ECFR has brought together a
distinguished Council of over two hundred Members
politicians, decision makers, thinkers and business people
from the EUs member states and candidate countries which
meets once a year as a full body. Through geographical and
thematic task forces, members provide ECFR staff with advice
and feedback on policy ideas and help with ECFRs activities
within their own countries. The Council is chaired by Martti
Ahtisaari, Joschka Fischer and Mabel van Oranje.
A physical presence in the main EU member states.
ECFR, uniquely among European think-tanks, has offices
in Berlin, London, Madrid, Paris, Rome, Sofia and Warsaw.
In the future ECFR plans to open an office in Brussels. Our
offices are platforms for research, debate, advocacy and
communications.
A distinctive research and policy development process.
ECFR has brought together a team of distinguished
researchers and practitioners from all over Europe to advance
its objectives through innovative projects with a pan-European
focus. ECFRs activities include primary research, publication of
policy reports, private meetings and public debates, friends
of ECFR gatherings in EU capitals and outreach to strategic
media outlets.
ECFR is a registered charity funded by the Open Society
Foundations and other generous foundations, individuals and
corporate entities. These donors allow us to publish our ideas
and advocate for a values-based EU foreign policy. ECFR works
in partnership with other think tanks and organisations but
does not make grants to individuals or institutions.
www.ecfr.eu
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Afghanistan: Europes
forgotten war
Daniel Korski, January 2008
(ECFR/04)
Shaping Europes Afghan Surge
Daniel Korski, March 2009 (ECFR/11)
After the Revolution: Europe and
the Transition in Tunisia
Susi Dennison, Anthony Dworkin,
Nicu Popescu and Nick Witney,
March 2011 (ECFR/28)
European Foreign Policy Scorecard
2010
March 2011 (ECFR/29)
Egypts Hybrid Revolution: a
Bolder EU Approach
Anthony Dworkin, Daniel Korski and
Nick Witney, May 2011 (ECFR/32)
A Chance to Reform: How the EU
can support Democratic Evolution
in Morocco
Susi Dennison, Nicu Popescu and
Jos Ignacio Torreblanca,
May 2011 (ECFR/33)
Chinas Janus-faced Response to
the Arab Revolutions
Jonas Parello-Plesner and Raffaello
Pantucci, June 2011 (ECFR/34)
Europe and the Arab Revolutions:
A New Vision for Democracy and
Human Rights
Susi Dennison and Anthony
Dworkin, November 2011 (ECFR/41)
A Reset with Algeria: the Russia
to the EUs South
Hakim Darbouche and Susi
Dennison, December 2011 (ECFR/46)
European Foreign Policy Scorecard
2012
February 2012 (ECFR/48)
Syria: Towards a Political Solution
Julien Barnes-Dacey, March 2012
(ECFR/51)
Europe and Jordan: Reform
before its too late
Julien Barnes-Dacey, April 2012
(ECFR/54)
Lebanon: Containing Spillover
from Syria
Julien Barnes-Dacey, September
2012 (ECFR/61)
A Power Audit of EU-North Africa
Relations
Nick Witney and Anthony Dworkin,
September 2012 (ECFR/62)
Jordan Tremors: Elusive consensus,
deepening discontent
Julien Barnes-Dacey, November
2012 (ECFR/68)
The EU, Algeria and the Northern
Mali Question
Susi Dennison, December 2012
(ECFR/69)
Shooting In The Dark?
EU Sanctions Policies
Konstanty Gebert, January 2013
(ECFR/71)
European Foreign Policy Scorecard
2013
February 2013 (ECFR/73)
The Struggle for Pluralism after
the North African Revolutions
Anthony Dworkin, March 2013
(ECFR/74)
What does the Gulf think about
the Arab Awakening?
April 2013 (see ecfr.eu)
Egypt, the IMF and European
Economic Assistance
Farah Halime, April 2013 (ECFR/76)
Europe and The Vanishing
Two-State Solution
Nick Witney, May 2013 (ECFR/78)
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TIe Europeun CouncII on oreIgn
ReIuLIons does noL Luke coIIecLIve
posILIons. TIIs puper, IIke uII
pubIIcuLIons oI LIe Europeun CouncII on
oreIgn ReIuLIons, represenLs onIy LIe
vIews oI ILs uuLIors.
CopyrIgIL oI LIIs pubIIcuLIon Is IeId
by LIe Europeun CouncII on oreIgn
ReIuLIons. You muy noL copy, reproduce,
repubIIsI or cIrcuIuLe In uny wuy LIe
conLenL Irom LIIs pubIIcuLIon excepL Ior
your own personuI und non-commercIuI
use. Any oLIer use requIres LIe prIor
wrILLen permIssIon oI LIe Europeun
CouncII on oreIgn ReIuLIons
ECR Muy zo1.

SBN: q;8-1-qo68-8o-q
PubIIsIed by LIe Europeun CouncII
on oreIgn ReIuLIons (ECR),
OId Queen SLreeL, ondon,
SW1H qJA, UnILed KIngdom
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