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Report prepared by: Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT North American Equity Strategist
Volume 14 Highlights
Inside
Technical Commentary ......................... 2 Technical Trading Ideas...................... 10 Sentiment Indicators ........................... 14 Overbought/Oversold Stocks .............. 15 Market Statistics .................................. 16
We believe the S&P/TSX Composite Index (S&P/TSX) is due to take a break after advancing 6% since its February lows. We are targeting the S&P/TSX to pull back to 13,800 to 14,000, which is the convergence of: 1) previous resistance, now support; 2) the 50-day moving average (MA); and 3) the lower channel line. If correct in our call for a short-term pull back, we would use the opportunity to increase equity exposure, as the long-term technical profile for the S&P/TSX remains constructive. The technical profile of gold miners has greatly improved in recent months, with the S&P/TSX Capped Global Gold Index breaking above its year-and-a-half downtrend. If the gold price continues to trend higher and/or hold steady, we believe gold miners could continue to rally given how beaten up they were in 2013. The S&P 500 Index (S&P 500) broke above short-term resistance of 1,850, making a new all-time high. The new high for the S&P 500 was accompanied by new highs for: 1) the NYSE Advance/Decline line; 2) a relative high for the Russell 2000 Index versus the S&P 500; and 3) the Dow Jones Transportation Index. For us, this points to a continued strong bull market for U.S. equities. In the short-term, we see the potential for some backing and filling for the S&P 500 as it works off its overbought condition. In this weeks report, we highlight Honeywell International Inc. (HON-N), Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET-T) and Finning International Inc. (FTT-T) as attractive buy candidates and recommend investors trim/sell General Motors Co. (GM-N).
Chart of the Week The bears are in hibernation. Just 17% of polled professional investors are bearish, which is the lowest reading since the mid-1980s
This Document is for distribution to Canadian clients only. Please refer to Appendix A in this report for important information.
Technical Commentary
S&P/TSX Composite Index
The S&P/TSX has traded in a tight range of roughly 14,200 to 14,300 over the last few weeks. This does not come as a surprise, as the S&P/TSX is trading at its upper channel line, which is an important resistance level. Additionally, horizontal price resistance comes in at 14,330, which dates back to the 2011 highs. Given the convergence of these two resistance lines, we see the 14,300 to 14,350 as a key technical level for the S&P/TSX. A break above this level would be very bullish, in our opinion. However, many of our secondary technical indicators are signalling a short-term top in the S&P/TSX, increasing the odds that the S&P/TSX will fail in breaking above this important technical level on its first attempt. We believe the S&P/TSX is due to take a break after advancing 6% since its February lows. Our call for a shortterm pause/pullback is predicated on: 1) the S&P/TSX trading at stiff technical resistance; 2) momentum weakening with the MACD indicator beginning to rollover; and 3) the S&P/TSX appearing to be in the early stages of working off its recent overbought technical condition. As such, we are targeting the S&P/TSX to pull back to between 13,800 and 14,000, which is the convergence of: 1) previous resistance, now support; 2) the 50-day MA (13,902); and 3) the lower channel line. If correct in our call for a short-term pull back, we would use the opportunity to increase equity exposure, as the long-term technical profile for the S&P/TSX remains constructive. Page 2
Weekly Momentum: The consumer discretionary sector has bounced back sharply from a challenging February, with the sector at the top spot in our sector rankings for two consecutive weeks. Conversely, the health care sector has dropped to the last spot in our sector rankings for two consecutive weeks. The weakness in the sector can be attributed to a pullback in Valeant Pharmaceuticals International (VRX-T) and Catamaran Corp. (CCT-T). Market Condition: All sectors are neutrally ranked with Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings below 70. However, the financials sector is close to being overbought, with an RSI reading of 69.25. Other: All 10 GIC sectors are trading above their respective 50- and 200-day MAs. This is a very bullish sign, and one reason why we remain constructive on the Canadian equity market.
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The technical profile of gold miners has greatly improved in recent months, with the S&P/TSX Capped Global Gold Index breaking above its year-and-a-half downtrend. The S&P/TSX Global Gold Index is trading above its rising 50- and 200-day MAs, and in recent days, has formed a golden cross with the 50-day MA crossing up through its 200-day MA (green circle). Additionally, the gold miners index continues to outperform the spot gold price, following a period of sustained underperformance. If the gold price continues to trend higher and/or hold steady, we believe gold miners could continue to rally given how beaten up they were in 2013. Page 4
The S&P 500 broke above short-term resistance of 1,850, making a new all-time high. The new high for the S&P 500 was accompanied by new highs for: 1) the NYSE Advance/Decline line; 2) a new relative high for the Russell 2000 Index versus the S&P 500; and 3) a new high for the Dow Jones Transportation Index. For us, this points to a continued strong bull market for U.S. equities. In the short-term, we see the potential for some backing and filling for the S&P 500 as it works off its overbought condition. Admittedly, the RSI indicator did not reach the 70 overbought level, but the percentage of stocks in the NYSE above their respective 50-day MAs came very close to the overbought 80% level (lower panel). Additionally, momentum looks to be peaking, with the MACD indicator close to registering a momentum sell signal. As such, we could see some near-term profit taking, but we remain constructive on U.S. equities, as the long-term uptrend remains firmly in place. To become more cautious on the U.S. equity markets, we would need to see the S&P 500 break below the 1,735 to 1,750 range, which is the convergence of the 200-day MA and the February lows. Page 5
Weekly Momentum: The financials sector jumped to the top spot in our sector rankings last week, reversing a recent trend of underperforming the broader market. We view the financials sector as an important barometer of the U.S. equity market, and therefore would like to see this continue. Defensive sectors lagged last week, with the health care and utilities sectors underperforming the broader market. The telecom sector continues to post weak relative returns and has been near the bottom of our sector rankings over the last six weeks. Market Condition: All sectors are neutrally ranked, with RSI levels between 30 and 70. Other: The telecom sector is trading below its 50- and 200-day MAs, which is a contributing factor in our call to underweight the sector in portfolios.
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In the July 15, 2013 edition of The Technical Take, we highlighted the semiconductor space as a particularly attractive area. The Semiconductor Index is up 19% since then and we see the potential for additional gains. The index is in a long-term uptrend, and is trading above its rising 50- and 200-day MAs. Its relative trends also remain bullish, with the index outperforming the S&P 500 since November 2013, and more recently, making a new relative high (lower panel). In the short-term, the Semiconductor Index is overbought, which could result in some short-term backing and filling. Given the bullish technical profile for the industry, we would look to increase exposure on any short-term weakness.
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Sentiment Update
As articulated in this and many previous reports, the technicals for the North American equity markets remain constructive, and we see the potential for the uptrend to continue. That said, the equity markets are not without some concerning readings. One in particular is investor sentiment, which is skewed heavily to the bullish side. In the accompanying chart, we note that just 17% of polled professional investors are bearish, which is well below the long-term average of 30%, and is the lowest reading since the mid-1980s. Sentiment polls are secondary technical indicators, but we do find this series worrying, as it implies that most investors are all in.
(in millions)
$500,000 $450,000
$400,000
$350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000
$150,000
$100,000 $50,000 $0 Jan-80
Jan-85
Jan-90
Jan-95
Jan-00
Jan-05
Jan-10
Another concern we have is the record amount of margin debt held by investors. Currently, U.S. margin debt stands at US$451 billion, which is a new all-time high, and well above the previous peak of US$381 billion in July 2007. Increasing margin debt is supportive to stock prices, as more capital coming into the equity markets helps to bid up stock prices. However, this can quickly change as equity markets come under pressure, as increased margin calls can lead to a swift unwinding of this credit, which can then exacerbate equity market declines. For now, we remain bullish given the very supportive technical trends, however, we will continue to monitor these data series closely for signals indicating a potential maturity of the five-year bull market.
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Intermarket Picture
Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index Coming into the year we were cautious on commodities given our belief that slower economic growth in China would result in lower demand for commodities, and in turn, weaker prices. This call has proved incorrect as the broad-based Reuters/Jefferies CRB (CRB) Index has broken above its long-term downtrend, and has gained 8.5% year-to-date (YTD). The recent strength in this index is being driven by energy, precious metals and soft commodities (i.e., gains, coffee, etc.). The CRB Index is currently overbought with an RSI reading above 70. As such, we expect some short-term profit taking; however, given this important technical breakout, we are revaluating our cautious stance on the commodity space, and will be monitoring the technical trends closely.
Gold Gold has been particularly strong, up 14% YTD. The gold price rallied 1.5% on March 11, taking out the October 2013 high of US$1,361/oz., and opening the door for gold to potentially rally to the August 2013 high of US$1,434/oz. Gold is technically overbought in the short term, and therefore we expect some backing and filling in the coming days. However, the technical profile for the gold price has improved significantly, and as such, we have become more constructive on the precious metal. Page 9
The U.S. industrials sector is one of our top sectors for 2014. Within the sector, Honeywell International Inc. stands out on a technical basis. The stock is trading in a long-term upward channel, as the stock makes higher highs and higher lows. The stock is adhering very well to the 50-day MA, as it continues to bounce off the important M A on pullbacks. Finally, HONs relative trend remains positive, with the stock making a new high relative to the broad market in February (lower panel). Given HONs strong price and relative trends we are buyers of the stock, and see the stock hitting new price highs in 2014. We would recommend a stop loss at $87 which is just below the stocks 50 -day MA and 2014 lows.
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We are highlighting the breakout of Vermilion Energy Inc. from our breakout/breakdown model*. We highlighted VET on November 20, 2013 as an attractive technical buy candidate. With the stock up over 7% since then and making a new high this week, we are reaffirming our bullish stance on VET. VET remains in a long-term uptrend and is above its rising 50- and 200-day MAs. The stock is adhering well to its 50day MA, as it continues to provide strong technical support. Volume trends also remain supportive, with its On Balance Volume indicator continuing to trend higher (lower panel). We continue to view VET favourably and believe it can trend higher in the coming months. We would employ a stop loss at $57, which is just below its 200-day MA.
*NOTE: Our technical breakout/breakdown model is based on a weekly screen of the S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite for stocks making a new high/low over the last 90 days on volume greater than +1 standard deviation from the 90-day average volume.
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Finning International Inc. has traded in a range between $21 and $26 for most of the last two years. However, the stock broke above key resistance of $26 in late-December and we see the potential for additional upside. FTT is trading in a short-term upward channel and is above its rising 50- and 200-day MAs. FTTs relative strength has improved with the stock making a new relative high in February (lower panel). Following a recent surge in the share price, the stock has become technically overbought in the short term, which could result in some near-term selling pressure. However, we would buy the stock on any weakness given FTTs improving technical profile. We see $26 as a key level for the stock as this was resistance but became support in recent months. As such, we would employ a stop loss at $25.75, which is just below this support level.
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General Motors Co.s share price declined over 4% on March 11. Given the weak technical profile for the stock, we see the potential for additional weakness. GM recently broke below its upward trendline which had been in place for over two years. The break below its trendline was on heavy volume, which captures investor distribution. If the stock breaks below short-term support of $34.36 it will result in a lower low and the beginning of a downtrend. Other negative technical factors include: 1) the stock broke below its 50-day MA, which provided resistance in early March; 2) momentum remains weak; and 3) GMs relative uptrend was broken in February (lower panel). Given the confluence of negative technical factors, we would look to reduce exposure in this stock.
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Sentiment Indicators
Volatility (VIX) Index
30 1.5 1.4 25 1.3 1.2 20 1.1 1.0 15 0.9 10 0.8 0.7
5 Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
0.6 Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-14
VIX
Level 16.08
1 M Ago 14.14
3 M Ago 15.76
CBOE Put/Call
Level 70
1 M Ago 64
3 M Ago 64
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Overbought/Oversold Stocks
S&P 500
Most Overbought Name BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC-CL B SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CO KROGER CO ELECTRONIC ARTS INC MOODY'S CORP ECOLAB INC BROWN-FORMAN CORP-CLASS B TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES CORP SAFEWAY INC LYONDELLBASELL INDU-CL A TRIPADVISOR INC J.C. PENNEY CO INC DR PEPPER SNAPPLE GROUP INC BEAM INC
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. As of March 12, 2014.
RSI (14D) 82.92 77.66 77.56 74.99 74.33 74.19 73.67 73.43 73.09 72.89 72.87 72.24 71.61 71.49 71.26
Most Oversold Name STAPLES INC ADT CORP/THE NETAPP INC KINDER MORGAN INC TENET HEALTHCARE CORP NOBLE CORP PLC FREEPORT-MCMORAN COPPER ENSCO PLC-CL A CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES INC LEUCADIA NATIONAL CORP FAMILY DOLLAR STORES PEABODY ENERGY CORP JOHNSON CONTROLS INC CABOT OIL & GAS CORP GENERAL MOTORS CO
RSI (14D) 29.38 29.84 30.82 31.12 32.52 32.98 34.13 35.46 35.56 35.69 35.74 35.76 35.98 36.58 36.71
S&P/TSX Composite
Most Overbought Name CAN IMPERIAL BK OF COMMERCE JEAN COUTU GROUP INC-CLASS A PARKLAND FUEL CORP FIRSTSERVICE CORP TORONTO-DOMINION BANK MAGNA INTERNATIONAL INC FAIRFAX FINANCIAL HLDGS LTD CAPITAL POWER CORP ALACER GOLD CORP LINAMAR CORP TIM HORTONS INC IMPERIAL OIL LTD OSISKO MINING CORP DETOUR GOLD CORP CENTERRA GOLD INC
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. As of March 12, 2014.
RSI (14D) 85.36 80.48 79.44 78.52 78.36 76.05 75.48 74.72 74.21 74.17 72.77 72.37 71.98 71.55 70.97
Most Oversold Name AIMIA INC CANEXUS CORP DUNDEE CORP -CL A LIGHTSTREAM RESOURCES LTD TRANSALTA CORP TALISMAN ENERGY INC EXTENDICARE INC CAPSTONE MINING CORP TECK RESOURCES LTD-CLS B NIKO RESOURCES LTD PENGROWTH ENERGY CORP THOMSON REUTERS CORP BONTERRA ENERGY CORP DUNDEE REAL ESTATE INVESTM-A FIRST QUANTUM MINERALS LTD
RSI (14D) 20.81 22.46 29.41 29.82 30.19 31.85 32.92 33.10 33.32 33.50 33.65 34.07 34.48 34.56 35.63
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Market Statistics
Region U.S. Index S&P 500 Dow Jones Industrial Average Dow Jones Transportation Dow Jones Utilities Nasdaq Composite Russell 2000 Russell 1000 Value Russell 1000 Growth S&P/TSX Composite S&P/TSX 60 S&P/TSX Smallcap S&P/TSX Venture DAX FTSE 100 Nikkei 225 Hang Seng Shanghai MSCI World MSCI EAFE MSCI Emerging Markets Consumer Discretionary Comsumer Staples Energy Financials Health care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunications Utilities Consumer Discretionary Comsumer Staples Energy Financials Health care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunications Utilities Last 1868.20 16340.08 7585.98 515.52 4323.33 1191.37 935.33 881.39 14319.00 822.45 653.51 1046.39 9188.69 6620.90 14830.39 21901.95 1997.69 1672.19 1917.99 955.89 528.11 437.40 634.28 298.43 687.90 448.97 597.50 297.37 146.35 203.31 1539.36 2693.23 3036.91 2128.15 1874.74 2071.31 156.36 2418.49 1161.47 1854.54 1 Week -1.48 -1.70 -1.04 1.42 -2.05 -2.32 -1.31 -1.82 -0.19 -0.02 -1.32 -0.52 -5.50 -3.46 -2.11 -4.17 -1.96 -1.22 -2.17 -2.64 -2.42 -0.15 -1.54 -1.26 -1.17 -2.47 -1.81 -2.32 -1.42 2.05 -0.39 -1.29 -0.39 0.45 2.02 0.27 -1.94 -0.91 -2.04 0.49 1 Month 3 Month 1.06 4.16 0.72 2.46 2.74 5.57 0.69 8.79 0.52 6.55 2.51 6.28 1.44 3.89 0.73 5.15 1.74 1.70 2.82 4.81 -6.03 -1.59 3.51 -2.43 -4.57 1.36 0.46 -0.13 1.40 2.01 1.57 1.66 1.45 0.69 -0.44 2.26 -2.39 1.36 2.83 1.43 1.57 2.23 -3.01 1.67 0.69 2.64 0.62 0.31 8.53 8.42 10.83 15.59 0.13 1.77 -3.81 -6.41 -8.06 4.90 4.38 -4.63 2.33 0.54 0.73 4.09 9.56 3.04 5.82 6.80 -3.20 8.62 5.40 5.91 7.40 5.23 29.16 4.69 14.25 23.39 1.41 6.39 YTD 0.04 -2.62 1.09 5.96 2.07 1.11 -0.04 0.80 4.58 4.15 7.41 10.94 -5.59 -2.89 -9.06 -6.65 -4.58 0.27 -0.91 -5.79 -1.67 -1.66 -3.66 0.31 5.94 -2.11 0.56 1.23 -6.10 6.30 2.22 3.92 3.94 1.02 18.57 1.94 7.67 17.68 -0.24 4.94 1 Year 18.95 11.67 20.03 6.08 31.36 24.65 16.76 22.79 11.78 11.51 12.84 -7.30 13.13 1.12 19.67 -3.82 -11.06 16.49 12.75 -9.96 24.68 9.31 8.42 19.88 31.05 22.32 22.44 18.16 -6.61 6.83 31.10 22.93 10.57 15.83 71.22 21.01 24.18 -9.46 0.29 -3.20 3 Year 12.34 10.25 13.42 7.54 16.22 13.59 11.71 13.54 1.37 1.20 -4.40 -23.02 8.91 3.99 15.48 -2.32 -11.75 8.19 4.03 -5.19 19.28 12.49 4.10 9.92 21.76 11.79 12.26 7.82 5.12 7.79 12.81 16.70 -2.54 6.22 43.64 14.77 -14.40 -14.15 11.01 0.16 5 Year 19.57 17.45 25.32 11.33 24.39 24.52 19.52 20.98 11.40 10.04 15.00 4.02 17.93 11.79 14.38 11.67 -1.05 17.10 14.12 12.34 29.58 15.39 13.72 21.99 19.44 24.16 21.25 19.14 8.27 11.49 16.61 14.10 8.47 16.19 47.57 21.46 -3.21 1.85 12.42 6.70
Canada
International
S&P/TSX Sectors
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1. TD Securities Inc., TD Securities (USA) LLC or an affiliated company has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities within the last 12 months with respect to the subject company. 2. TD Securities Inc., TD Securities (USA) LLC or an affiliated company has received compensation for investment banking services within the last 12 months with respect to the subject company. 3. TD Securities Inc., TD Securities (USA) LLC or an affiliated company expects to receive compensation for investment banking services within the next three months with respect to the subject company. 4. TD Securities Inc. or TD Securities (USA) LLC has provided investment banking services within the last 12 months with respect to the subject company. 5. A long position in the securities of the subject company is held by the research analyst, by a member of the research anal ysts household, or in an account over which the research analyst has discretion or control. 6. A short position in the securities of the subject company is held by the research analyst, by a member of the research ana lysts household, or in an account over which the research analyst has discretion or control. 7. A long position in the derivative securities of the subject company is held by the research analyst, by a member of the research analysts household, or in an account over which the research analyst has discretion or control. 8. A short position in the derivative securities of the subject company is held by the research analyst, by a member of the research analysts household, or in an account over which the research analyst has discretion or control. 9. TD Securities Inc. and/or an affiliated company is a market maker, or is associated with the specialist that makes a market, in the securities of the subject company. 10. TD Securities Inc. and/or affiliated companies own 1% or more of the equity securities of the subject company. 11. A partner, director or officer of TD Securities Inc. or TD Securities (USA) LLC, or a research analyst involved in the preparation of this report has, during the preceding 12 months, provided services to the subject company for remuneration. 12. Subordinate voting shares. 13. Restricted voting shares. 14. Non-voting shares. 15. Common/variable voting shares. 16. Limited voting shares.
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Technical Research Disclosure The opinions expressed herein reflect a technical perspective and may differ from fundamental research on these issuers. Fundamental research can be obtained through your TD Wealth advisor or on the Markets and Research site within WebBroker. The technical research opinions contained in this report are based on historical technical data and expectations of the most likely direction of a market or security. No guarantee of that outcome is ever implied. Research Report Dissemination Policy TD Waterhouse Canada Inc. makes its research products available in electronic format. These research products are posted to our proprietary websites for all eligible clients to access by password and we distribute the information to our sales personnel who then may distribute it to their retail clients under the appropriate circumstances either by email, fax or regular mail. No recipient may pass on to any other person, or reproduce by any means, the information contained in this report without our prior written consent. Analyst Certification The Portfolio Advice and Investment Research analyst(s) responsible for this report hereby certify that (i) the recommendations and technical opinions expressed in the research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about any and all of the securities or issuers discussed herein, and (ii) no part of the research analysts compensation was, is, or w ill be, directly or indirectly, related to the provision of specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst in the research report. Conflicts of Interest The Portfolio Advice & Investment Research analyst(s) responsible for this report may own securities of the issuer(s) discussed in this report. As with most other employees, the analyst(s) who prepared this report are compensated based upon (among other factors) the overall profitability of TD Waterhouse Canada Inc. and its affiliates, which includes the overall profitability of investment banking services, however TD Waterhouse Canada Inc. does not compensate its analysts based on specific investment banking transactions. Corporate Disclosure TD Wealth represents the products and services offered by TD Waterhouse Canada Inc. (Member Canadian Investor Protection Fund), TD Waterhouse Private Investment Counsel Inc., TD Wealth Private Banking (offered by The Toronto-Dominion Bank) and TD Wealth Private Trust (offered by The Canada Trust Company). The Portfolio Advice and Investment Research team is part of TD Waterhouse Canada Inc., a subsidiary of The Toronto-Dominion Bank. Trade-mark Disclosures Bloomberg and Bloomberg.com are trademarks and service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P., a Delaware limited partnership, or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. TD Securities is the trade name which TD Securities Inc. and TD Securities (USA) LLC jointly use to market their institutio nal equity services. TD Securities is a trade-mark of The Toronto-Dominion Bank representing TD Securities Inc., TD Securities (USA) LLC, TD Securities Limited and certain corporate and investment banking activities of The Toronto-Dominion Bank. All trademarks are the property of their respective owners. The TD logo and other trade-marks are the property of The Toronto-Dominion Bank.
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