6 7

Hypothesis Testing -Two Populations

Exercise 1: A random sample of size n = 25 taken from a normal population with = 5.2 has a mean equals 81. A second random sample of size n = 36, taken from a different normal population with = 3. , has a mean equals !6. (a) "o the data indicate that the true mean #alue 1 and 2 are different$ %arr& out a test at = '.'1 ()* +ind ,'- %. on the difference in mean stren/th

Exercise 2: 0wo machines are used for fillin/ plastic )ottles with a net #olume of 16.' oz. 0he fill #olume can )e assumed normal with, s1 = '.'2 and s2 = '.'25. A mem)er of the qualit& en/ineerin/ staff suspects that )oth machines fill to the same mean net #olume, whether or not this #olume is 16.' oz. A random sample of 1' )ottles is taken from the output of each machine with the followin/ results1 (a* "o &ou think the en/ineer is correct$ 2se the p 3 #alue approach. ()* +ind a ,5- %. on the difference in means.

Probability and Statistics Work Book

Exercise 3: (0utorial 6, 4o.1* 0wo machine are used to fill plastic )ottles with dishwashin/ deter/ent. 0he standard de#iations of fill #olume are known to )e 1= '.'1 and 2 = '.15 fluid ounce for two machines, respecti#el&. 0wo random samples of n1 = 12 )ottles from machine 1 and n2=1' )ottles from machine 2 are selected, and the sample mean fill #olumes are x 1 =3'.61

x 2 =3'.2 fluid ounces. Assume normalit&. (i* 0est the h&pothesis that )oth machines fill to the same mean #olume. 2se the P5#alue approach6 (ii* %onstruct a ,'- two5sided %. on the mean difference in fill #olume6 and (iii* %onstruct a ,5- two5sided %. on the mean difference in fill #olume. %ompare and comment on the width of this inter#al to the width of the inter#al in part (ii*.

Exercise 4: 0o find out whether a new serum will arrest leukemia, , mice, all with an ad#anced sta/e of the disease are selected. 5 mice recei#e the treatment and do not. 7ur#i#al, in &ears, from the time the e8periment commenced are as follows1 0reatment 4o treatment 2.1 1., 5.3 '.5 1. 2.8 .6 3.1 '.,

At the '.'5 le#el of si/nificance can the serum )e said to )e effecti#e$ Assume the two distri)utions to )e of equal #ariances.

Probability and Statistics Work Book

Exercise 5: (0utorial 6, 4o.2* A new polic& re/ardin/ o#ertime pa& was implemented. 0his polic& decreased the pa& factor for o#ertime work. 4either the staffin/ pattern nor the work loads chan/ed. 0o determine if o#ertime loads chan/ed under the polic&, a random sample of emplo&ees was selected. 0heir o#ertime hours for a randoml& selected week )efore and for another randoml& selected week after the polic& chan/e were recorded as follows1 Employees: e!ore: "!ter: 1 5 3 ! 2 2 5 3 8 5 1' 3 ! 6 ! 8 , 1' 11 12 , 3 6 ' 1 5 1 2 3 2 2

Assume that the two population #ariances are equal and the underl&in/ population is normall& distri)uted. (i* .s there an& e#idence to support the claim that the a#era/e num)er of hours worked as o#ertime per week chan/ed after the polic& went into effect. 2se a P5#alue approach in arri#in/ at this conclusion. (ii* %onstruct a ,5- %. for the difference in mean )efore and after the polic& chan/e. .nterpret this inter#al.

Exercise #: 0he diameter of steel rods manufactured on two different e8trusion machines is )ein/ in#esti/ated. 0wo random samples of sizes n1 = 15 and n2 = 1! are selected, and 2 x1 = 8.3!, Assume s12 = '.that 35 data andare x2drawn = 8.68 , s2 = '. ' with equal #ariances. respecti#el&. normal distri)ution (a* .s there e#idence to support the claim that the two machines produce rods with different mean diameters $ 2se the p 3 #alue approach. ()* %onstruct a ,5- %. on the difference in mean rod diameter.

Probability and Statistics Work Book

Exercise $: 0he followin/ data represent the runnin/ times of films produced )& 2 motion5picture companies. 0est the h&pothesis that the a#era/e runnin/ time of films produced )& compan& 2 e8ceeds the a#era/e runnin/ time of films produced )& compan& 1 )& 1' minutes a/ainst the one5sided alternati#e that the difference is less than 1' minutes$ 2se a = '.'1 and assume the distri)utions of times to )e appro8imatel& normal with unequal #ariances. 0ime

%ompan& 91 92 1'2 81 86 165 ,8 ,! 1', 13 ,2 ,2 8! 11

Exercise %: 0wo companies manufacture a ru))er material intended for use in an automoti#e application. 25 samples of material from each compan& are tested, and the amount of wear after 1''' c&cles are o)ser#ed. +or compan& 1, the sample mean and standard de#iation of wear are

x1 = 2'.12mg : 1'''c&cles and s1 = 1.,mg : 1'''c&cles

and for compan& 2, we o)tain x2 = 11.6 mg : 1'''c&cles and s2 = !.,mg : 1'''c&cles (a* "o the sample data support the claim that the two companies produce material with different mean wear$ Assume each population is normall& distri)uted )ut unequal #ariances$ ()* %onstruct a ,5- %. for the difference in mean wear of these two companies. .nterpret this inter#al.

Exercise &: (0utorial 6, 4o.3*

Probability and Statistics Work Book

;rofessor A claims that a pro)a)ilit& and statistics student can increase his or her score on tests if the person is pro#ided with a pre5test the week )efore the e8am. 0o test her theor& she selected 16 pro)a)ilit& and statistics students at random and /a#e these students a pre5test the week )efore an e8am. 7he also selected an independent random sample of 12 students who were /i#en the same e8am )ut did not ha#e access to the pre5test. 0he first /roup had a mean score of !,. with standard de#iation 8.8. 0he second /roup had sample mean score !1.2 with standard de#iation !.,. (i* "o the data support ;rofessor A claims that the mean score of students who /et a pre5 test are different from the mean score of those who do not /et a pre test )efore an e8am. 2se the P-value approach and assume that their #ariances are not equal. (ii* %onstruct a ,5- %. for the difference in mean score of students who /et a pre5test and those who do not /et a pre5test )efore an e8am. .nterpret this inter#al.

Exercise 1': A #ote is to )e taken amon/ residents of a town and the surroundin/ count& to determine whether a proposed chemical plant should )e constructed. .f 12' of 2'' town #oters fa#our the proposal and 2 ' of 5'' count& residents fa#our it, would &ou a/ree that the proportion of town #oters fa#ourin/ the proposal is hi/her than the proportion of count& #oters$ 2se a = '.'5

Probability and Statistics Work Book

Exercise 11: (0utorial 6, 4o. * 0he rollo#er rate of sport utilit& #ehicles is a transportation safet& issue. 7afet& ad#ocates claim that the manufacturer A<s #ehicle has a hi/her rollo#er rate than that of manufacturer =. >ne hundreds crashes for each of this #ehicles were e8amined. 0he rollo#er rates were pA=0 !" and pB=0 2". (i* =& usin/ the P5#alue approach, does manufacturer A<s #ehicle has a hi/her rollo#er rate than manufacturer =<s$ (ii* %onstruct a ,5- %. on the difference in the two rollo#er rates of the #ehicle. .nterpret this inter#al.

Exercise 12: ;rofessor ?ad& /a#e 58 A<s and =<s to a class of 125 students in his section of @n/lish 1'1. 0he ne8t term ;rofessor Aad& /a#e 5 A<s and =<s to a class of 115students in his section of @n/lish 1'1. (i* =& usin/ a 5- si/nificance le#el, test the claim that ;rofessor ?ad& /i#es a hi/her percenta/e of A<s and =<s in @n/lish 1'1 than ;rofessor Aad& does. Bhat is comment$ (ii* %onstruct a ,5- %. on the difference in the percenta/e of A<s and =<s in @n/lish 1'1 /i#en )& this two professors.

(imple )inear *egression

6

Probability and Statistics Work Book

Exercise 1: 0he mana/er of a car plant wishes to in#esti/ate how the plant<s electricit& usa/e depends upon the plant production. 0he data is /i#en )elow ;roduction .51 3.58 .31 5.'6 5.6 .,, 5.2, 5.83 .! 5.61 ., .2 (?Cmillion* (8* @lectricit& 2. 8 2.26 2. ! 2.!! 2.,, 3.'5 3.18 3. 6 3.'3 3.26 2.6! 2.53 2sa/e (&* (a* @stimate the linear re/ression equation # = ' + 1 x ()* An estimate for the electricit& usa/e when 8 = 5 (c* +ind a ,'- %onfidence .nter#al for the electricit& usa/e.

Exercise 2:

Probability and Statistics Work Book

An e8periment was set up to in#esti/ate the #ariation of the specific heat of a certain chemical with temperature. 0he data is /i#en )elow 0emperature o+ (8* Aeat (&* (a* ()* (c* (d* 5' 1.6' 1.6 6' 1.63 1.65 !' 1.6! 1.6! 8' 1.!' 1.!2 ,' 1.!1 1.!2 1'' 1.!1 1.!

@stimate the linear re/ression equation # = ' + 1 x ;lot the results on a scatter dia/ram An estimate for the specific heat when the temperature is !5o+ +ind a ,5- %onfidence .nter#al for the specific heat.

Exercise 3: An en/ineer at a semiconductor compan& wants to model the relationship )etween the de#ice A+@ (y* and the parameter @mitter 5 ?7 ( x *. 1 "ata for @mitter 5 ?7 was first collected and a statistical anal&sis is carried out and the output is displa&ed in the ta)le /i#en. ?e/ression Anal&sis1 y = 1'!5.2 3 63.8!x1 ;redictor %oef 7@ %oef 0 %onstant 1'!5.2 121.1 8.88 x1 563.8! 8.''2 5!.,8 7 = 1,. ?57q = '.!8 Anal&sis of #ariance 7ource "+ ?e/ression 1 ?esidual 18 0otal 1, 77 23,65 6!!2 3'!3! C7 23,65 3!6 ;5#alue '.''' '.'''

+ 63.!'

(a* @stimate A+@ when the @mitter 5 ?7 is 1 .5. ()* >)tain a ,5 - confidence inter#al for the true slope $. (c* 0est for si/nificance of re/ression for a = '.'5. Exercise 4:

Probability and Statistics Work Book

An chemical en/ineer wants to model the relationship )etween the purit& of o8&/en ( y* produced in a chemical distillation process and the percenta/e of h&drocar)ons ( x * that are present in the main condenser of the distillation unit. A statistical anal&sis is carried out and the output is displa&ed in the ta)le /i#en. ?e/ression Anal&sis1 y = ! .3 D 1 .,x ;redictor %oef 7@ %oef %onstant ! .283 1.5,3 x1 1 ., ! 1.31! 7 = 1.'8! ?57q = 8!.!Anal&sis of #ariance 7ource "+ ?e/ression 1 ?esidual 18 0otal 1, 77 152.13 21.25 1!3.38 0 6.62 11.35 ;5#alue '.''' '.'''

C7 152.13 1.18

+ 12.86

(a* @stimate the purit& of o8&/en when the percenta/e of h&drocar)on 1-. ()* >)tain a ,5 - confidence inter#al for the true slope $. (c* 0est for si/nificance of re/ression for a = '.'5.

Probability and Statistics Work Book

Exercise 5: (0utorial !, 4o.1* ?e/ression methods were used to anal&ze the data from a stud& in#esti/atin/ the relationship )etween roadwa& surface temperature (x* and pa#ement deflection (y*. 0he data follow. 0emperature x !'.' !!.' !2.1 !2.8 !8.3 ! .5 ! .' !2. !5.2 !6.' "eflection y '.621 '.65! '.6 ' '.623 '.661 '.6 1 '.63! '.63' '.6 '.63, 0emperature x !2.! 6!.8 !6.6 !3. !'.5 !2.1 !1.2 !3.' !2.! !1. "eflection y '.63! '.62! '.652 '.63' '.62! '.631 '.6 1 '.631 '.63 '.638

(a* @stimate the intercept and slope re/ression coefficients. Brite the estimated re/ression line. ()* %ompute SS% and estimate the #ariance. (c* +ind the standard error of the slope and intercept coefficients. (d* 7how that (e* %ompute the coefficient of determination, &2. %omment on the #alue. (f* 2se a t5test to test for si/nificance of the intercept and slope coefficients at . Ei#e the P5#alues of each and comment on &our results. (/* %onstruct the A4>FA ta)le and test for si/nificance of re/ression usin/ the P5#alue. %omment on &our results and their relationship to &our results in part (f*.

(h* %onstruct ,5- %.s on the intercept and slope. %omment on the relationship of these %.s and &our findin/s in parts (f* and (/*.

1'

Probability and Statistics Work Book

Exercise #: (0utorial !, 4o.2* 0he desi/ners of a data)ase information s&stem that allows its users to search )ackwards for se#eral da&s wanted to de#elop a formula to predict the time it would )e take to search. Actuall& elapsed time was measured for se#eral different #alues of da&s. 0he measured data is shown in the followin/ ta)le1 4um)er of "a&s @lapsed 0ime 1 '.6 5 2 '.!, 1.36 8 2.26 16 3.5, 25 5.3,

(i* @stimate the intercept and slope re/ression coefficients. Brite the estimated re/ression line. (ii* %ompute SS% and estimate the #ariance. (iii* +ind the standard error of the slope and intercept coefficients. (i#* 7how that (#* %ompute the coefficient of determination, &2. %omment on the #alue. (#i* 2se a t5test to test for si/nificance of the intercept and slope coefficients at . Ei#e the P5#alues of each and comment on &our results. (#ii* %onstruct the A4>FA ta)le and test for si/nificance of re/ression usin/ the P5#alue. %omment on &our results and their relationship to &our results in part (#i*. (#iii* %onstruct ,5- %.s on the intercept and slope. %omment on the relationship of these %.s and &our findin/s in parts (#i* and (#ii*.

11

Probability and Statistics Work Book

8 9

+ultiple )inear *egressions

Exercise 1: Ei#en the data1 0est 4um)er 1 2 3 5 6 ! 8 , 1' y 1.6 2.1 2. 2.8 3.6 3.8 .3 ., 5.! 5 x1 1 1 2 2 2 3 2 x2 1 2 1 2 3 2 2 3 3

(a* +it a multiple linear re/ression model to these data.

12

Probability and Statistics Work Book

Exercise 2: Ei#en the data1 >)ser#ation 4um)er ;ull 7tren/th y Bire Gen/th x1 "ie Aei/ht x2 1 ,.,5 2 5' 2 2 . 5 8 11' 3 31.!5 11 12' 35.'' 1' 55' 5 25.'2 8 2,5 6 16.86 2'' ! 1 .38 2 3!5 8 ,.6' 2 52 , 2 .35 , 1'' 1' 2!.5' 8 3'' 11 1!.'8 12 12 3!.'' 11 '' 13 1.,5 12 5'' 1 11.66 2 36' 15 21.65 2'5 16 1!.8, '' 1! 6,.'' 2' 6'' 18 1'.3' 1 585 1, 3 .,3 1' 5 ' 2' 6.5, 15 25' 21 .88 15 2,' 22 5 .12 16 51' 23 56.63 1! 5,' 2 22.13 6 1'' 25 21.15 5 '' ()* +it a multiple linear re/ression model to these data.

13

Probability and Statistics Work Book

Exercise 3: A stud& was performed to in#esti/ate the shear stren/th of soil 'y( as it related to depth in meter (x1* and percenta/e moisture content (x2*. 0en o)ser#ations were collected and the followin/ summar& quantities o)tained1

n = 1',

x x

i1

= 223,
2 i2

2 i1 i1

= 5,2''.,, yi =

x = 31,!2,, 3,55'.8, x y = 1'

i2 i

i2

= 553,

y x x

= 1,,16, = 12,352,

i1 i 2

,!36.8,

2 i

= 3!1,5,5.6

(a* @stimate the parameters to fit the multiple re/ression models for these data. ()* Bhat is the predicted stren/th when x1=18meter and x2= 3-.

Probability and Statistics Work Book

Exercise 4: A set of e8perimental runs were made to determine a wa& of predictin/ cookin/ time y at #arious le#els of o#en width x1, and temperature x2. 0he data were recorded as follows1
y 6.4 15.05 18.75 30.25 44.86 48.94 51.55 61.5 100.44 111.42 x1 1.32 2.69 3.56 4.41 5.35 6.3 7.12 8.87 9.8 10.65 x2 1.15 3.4 4.1 8.75 14.82 15.15 15.32 18.18 35.19 40.4

(a* +it a multiple linear re/ression model to these data. ()* (c* (d* (e* @stimate and the standard errors of the re/ression coefficients. 0est for si/nificance of and . ;redict the useful ran/e when )ri/htness = 8' and contrast = !5. %onstruct a ,5- ;.. %ompute the mean response of the useful ran/e when )ri/htness = 8' and contrast = !5. %ompute a ,5- %.. (f* .nterpret parts (d* and (e* and comment on the comparison )etween the ,5- ;. and ,5%..

15

Probability and Statistics Work Book

Exercise 5: (0utorial 8, 4o.1* An article in )ptical %ngineering (H>peratin/ %ur#e @8traction of a %orrelatorIs +ilter,J Fol. 3, 2'' , pp. 2!!532!!,* reported the use of an optical correlator to perform an e8periment )& #ar&in/ )ri/htness and contrast. 0he resultin/ modulation is characterized )& the useful ran/e of /ra& le#els. 0he data are shown

=ri/htness (-*1 %ontrast (-*1

5 5 6

6 1 8 ' 5 '

6 5 ! ' 5 '

1' ' 5' 11 2

1' ' 65 ,6

1' ' 8' 8'

5' 25 15 5

5! 35 1

5 26 25 5

2seful ran/e (n/*1 , 6

(a* +it a multiple linear re/ression model to these data. ()* (c* (d* (e* @stimate and the standard errors of the re/ression coefficients. 0est for si/nificance of and . ;redict the useful ran/e when )ri/htness = 8' and contrast = !5. %onstruct a ,5- ;.. %ompute the mean response of the useful ran/e when )ri/htness = 8' and contrast = !5. %ompute a ,5- %.. (f* .nterpret parts (d* and (e* and comment on the comparison )etween the ,5- ;. and ,5%..

16

Probability and Statistics Work Book

Exercise #: (0utorial 8, 4o.2* A stud& was performed on wear of a )earin/ & and its relationship to 81 = oil #iscosit& and 82 = load. 0he followin/ data were o)tained1 8 1 8 2 & 1.6 15.5 22.' 85 1 2, 3 816 23' 3.' 33.' 135 ! 113 '.' 111 5 125

1'58 12' 1 1!2 ,1

(a* ()* (c* (d* (e*

+ir a multiple re/ression model to these data. @stimate 2 and the standard errors of the re/ression coefficients. 2se the model to predict wear when 81 = 25 and 82 = 1'''. +it a multiple re/ression model with an interaction term to these data. @stimate 2 and se(** for this new model. Aow did these quantities chan/e$ "oes this tell &ou an&thin/ a)out the #alue of addin/ the interaction term to the model$ (f* 2se the model in (d*, to predict when 81=25 and 82=1'''. %ompare this prediction with the predicted #alue from part (c* a)o#e.

1!

Probability and Statistics Work Book

,actorial Experiments - 22 ,actorial .esign

Exercise 1: An en/ineer is in#esti/atin/ the thickness of epita8ial la&er which will )e su)Kect to two #ariations in A, deposition time (D for short time, and 3 for lon/ time* and two le#els of =, arsenic flow rate (5 for 55- and D for 5,-*. 0he en/ineer conduct 22 factorial desi/n with n = replicates. 0he data are as follow1 Arsenic Ge#el =3 (Gow 5 55-* "eposition 0ime A 5 (Gon/* 1 .'3! 1 .165 13.,!2 13.,'! 1 1 1 1 .821 .!5! .8 3 .8!8 13.88' 13.86' 1 .'32 13.,1 1 1 1 1 .888 .,21 . 15 .,32 =D (Ai/h 3 5,-*

A D (7hort*

18

Probability and Statistics Work Book

a* %onstruct the 2 9 2 factorial desi/n ta)le. )* +ind the estimate of all effects and interaction. c* %onstruct the A4>FA ta)le for each effect, test the null h&pothesis that the effect is equal to '.

Exercise 2: (0utorial ,, 4o.1* A two factor e8perimental desi/n was conducted to in#esti/ate the lifetime of a component )ein/ manufactured. 0he two factors are A (desi/n* and = (cost of material*. 0wo le#els ((D* and (5** of each factor are considered. 0hree components are manufactured with each com)ination of desi/n and material, and the total lifetime measured (in hours* is as shown in ta)le )elow

"esi/n 0reatment %om)ination (1* a b ab A 5 D 5 D

Caterial = 5 5 D D

0otal lifetime of 3 A= components (in hours* D 5 5 D 122 6' 12' 118

(a* ;erform a two wa& anal&sis of #ariance to estimate the effects of desi/n and material e8pense on the component life time if the sum squares of total are 1'5'. ()* =ased on &our results in part (a*, what conclusions can &ou draw from the factorial e8periment$ (c* .ndicate which effects are si/nificant to the lifetime of a component. (d* Brite the least square fitted model usin/ onl& the si/nificant sources.

1,

Probability and Statistics Work Book

Exercise 3: An en/ineer suspects that the surface finish of metal parts is influenced )& the t&pe of paint used and the dr&in/ time. Ae selected three dr&in/ times 3 2', 25, and 3' minutes and used two t&pes of paint. 0hree parts are tested with each com)ination of paint t&poe and dr&in/ time. 0he data are as follow1 "r&in/ 0ime (min* ;aint .%. 2'min ! 6 5' ,2 86 68 25min !3 61 ,8 !3 88 3'min !8 85 ,2 66 5 85

4.;;>4

(a* %ompute the estimates of the effects and their standard errors for this desi/n. ()* %onstruct two5factor interaction plots and comment on the interaction of the factors. (c* 2se the t ratio to determine the si/nificance of each effect with .%omment on &our findin/s.

2'

Probability and Statistics Work Book

(d* %ompute an appro8imate ,5- %. for each effect. %ompare &our results with those in part (c* and comment. (e* ;erform an anal&sis of #ariance of the appropriate re/ression model for this desi/n. .nclude in &our anal&sis h&pothesis tests for each coefficient, as well as residual

Exercise 4: (0utorial ,, 4o.2* An e8periment in#ol#es a stora/e )atter& used in the launchin/ mechanism of a shoulder5 fired /round5to5air missile. 0wo material t&pes can )e used to make the )atter& plates. 0he o)Kecti#e is to desi/n a )atter& that is relati#el& unaffected )& the am)ient temperature. 0he output response from the )atter& is effecti#e life in hours. 0wo temperature le#els are selected, and a factorial e8periment with four replicates is run. 0he data are as follows1 0emperature (L+* Caterial 1 Gow 13 ' ! 2 13 8 16 8 15 5 18 ' 11 ' 16 ' 2 ' 8 2 , 6 8 2 Ai/h !' 58 1' 6'

21

Probability and Statistics Work Book

(a* %ompute the estimates of the effects and their standard errors for this desi/n. ()* %onstruct two5factor interaction plots and comment on the interaction of the factors. (c* 2se the t ratio to determine the si/nificance of each effect with .%omment on &our findin/s. (d* %ompute an appro8imate ,5- %. for each effect. %ompare &our results with those in part (c* and comment. (e* ;erform an anal&sis of #ariance of the appropriate re/ression model for this desi/n. .nclude in &our anal&sis h&pothesis tests for each coefficient, as well as residual anal&sis. 7tate &our final conclusions a)out the adequac& of the model. %ompare &our results to part (c* and comment.

Exercise 5: An article in the .@@@ 0ransactions on 7emiconductor Canufacturin/ (Fol. 5, 1,,2, pp. 21 5 222* descri)es an e8periment to in#esti/ate the surface char/e on a silicon wafer. 0he factors thou/ht to influence induced surface char/e are cleanin/ method (spin rinse dr& or 7?" and spin dr& or 7" and the position on the wafer where the char/e was measured. 0he surface char/e ( 91'11 q:cm3* response data are shown. 0est ;osition

22

Probability and Statistics Work Book

%leanin/ Cethod

7"

7?"

G 1.66 1.,' 1.,2 5 .21 51.35 52.'8

? 1.8 1.8 1.62 5!.58 52.2' 55.36

(a* %ompute the estimates of the effects and their standard errors for this desi/n. ()* %onstruct two5factor interaction plots and comment on the interaction of the factors. (c* 2se the t ratio to determine the si/nificance of each effect with .%omment on &our findin/s. (d* %ompute an appro8imate ,5- %. for each effect. %ompare &our results with those in part (c* and comment. (e* ;erform an anal&sis of #ariance of the appropriate re/ression model for this desi/n. .nclude in &our anal&sis h&pothesis tests for each coefficient, as well as residual anal&sis. 7tate &our final conclusions a)out the adequac& of the model. %ompare &our results to part (c* and comment.

10 00

/oncept o! Pro0a0ility

)earning 1utcome:

23

Probability and Statistics Work Book

0he students should )e a)le to understand the )asic concept of pro)a)ilit&, sample space, pro)a)ilit& of e#ents, countin/ rule6 conditional pro)a)ilit&6 multiplication rule and =a&es theorem Exercise 1: @ach messa/e in a di/ital communication s&stem is classified as to whether it is recei#ed within the time specified )& the s&stem desi/n. .f 3 messa/es are classified, what is an appropriate sample space for this e8periment$

Exercise 2: A di/ital scale is used that pro#ide wei/hts to the nearest /ram. Get e#ent A1 a wei/ht e8ceeds 11 /rams, =1 a wei/ht is less than or equal to 15 /rams, %1 a wei/ht is /reater than or equal to 8 /rams and less than 12 /rams. Bhat is the sample space for this e8periment$ and find (a* A 2 = ()* A+ (c* A , = (f* =< , %

(d* (A 2 %*< (e* A , = , %

Exercise 3: 7amples of )uildin/ materials from three suppliers are classified for conformance to air5 qualit& specifications. 0he results from 1'' samples are summarized as follows1 %onforms Mes 4o

Probability and Statistics Work Book

7upplier

? 7 0

3' 22 25

1' 8 5

Get A denote the e#ent that a sample is from supplier ?, and = denote the e#ent that a sample conforms to the specifications. .f sample is selected at random, determine the followin/ pro)a)ilities1 (a* P'A( ()* P'B( (c* P'B+( (d* P'A-B( (e* P'A B( (f* P'A-B+( (/* P ( A B * '.( P ( B A*

Exercise 4: (0utorial 1', 4o.1* 0he compact discs from a certain supplier are anal&zed for scratch and shock resistance. 0he results from 1'' discs tested are summarized as follows1 7cratch

25

Probability and Statistics Work Book

7hock ?esistance

Ai/h Cedium Gow

?esistance Ai/h Gow 3' 1' 22 8 25 5

Get A denote the e#ent that a disc has hi/h shock resistance, and = denote the e#ent that a disc has hi/h scratch resistance. .f sample is selected at random, determine the followin/ pro)a)ilities1 (a* P'A( ()* P'B( (c* P'B+( (d* P'A-B( (e* P'A B( (f* P'A-B+( (/* P ( A B * '.( P ( B A*

Exercise 5: 0he reaction times ( in minutes* of a reactor for two )atches are measured in an e8periment. a* "efine the sample space of the e8periment. )* "efine e#ent A where the reaction time of the first )atch is less than 5 minutes and e#ent = is the reaction time of the second )atch is /reater than !5 minutes. c* +ind A 2 =, A , = and A< d* Ferif& whether e#ents A and = are mutuall& e8clusi#e.

Exercise #: (0utorial 1', 4o.2* Bhen a die is rolled and a coin is tossed, use a tree dia/ram to descri)e the set of possi)le outcomes and find the pro)a)ilit& that the die shows an odd num)er and the coin shows a head.

26

Probability and Statistics Work Book

Exercise $: (0utorial 1', 4o.3* A )a/ contains 3 )lack and without replacement. (i* (ii* while )alls. 0wo )alls are drawn at random one at a time

Bhat is the pro)a)ilit& that a second )all drawn is )lack$ Bhat is the conditional pro)a)ilit& that first )all drawn is )lack if the second )all is known to )e )lack$

Exercise %: An oil5prospectin/ firm plans to drill two e8plorator& wells. ;ast e#idence is used to assess the possi)le outcomes listed in the followin/ ta)le1 @#ent A = % "escription 4either well produces oil or /as @8actl& one well produces oil or /as =oth wells produce oil or /as ;ro)a)ilit& '.8' '.18 '.'2

+ind and /i#e description for

P ( A B *, P ( B / * and P ( B I *

Exercise &:

2!

Probability and Statistics Work Book

.n a residential su)ur), 6'- of all households su)scri)e to the metro newspaper pu)lished in a near)& cit&, 8'- su)scri)e to the local paper, and 5'- of all households su)scri)e to )oth papers. "raw a Fenn dia/ram for this pro)lem. .f a household is selected at random, what is the pro)a)ilit& that it su)scri)es to a* at least one of the two newspapers )* e8actl& one of the two newspapers

Exercise 1': .n a student or/anization election, we want to elect one president from fi#e candidates, one #ice president from si8 candidates, and one secretar& from three candidates. Aow man& possi)le outcomes$

Exercise 11: 7uppose each student is assi/ned a 5 di/it num)er. Aow man& different num)ers can )e created$

Exercise 12: A chemical en/ineer wishes to conduct an e8periment to determine how these four factors affect the qualit& of the coatin/. 7he is interested in comparin/ three char/e le#els, fi#e densit& le#els, four temperature le#els, and three speed le#els. Aow man& e8perimental conditions are possi)le$

28

Probability and Statistics Work Book

Exercise 13: (0utorial 1', 4o. * A menu has fi#e appetizers, three soup, se#en main course, si8 salad dressin/s and ei/ht desserts. .n how man& wa&s can a* A full meal )e chosen$ )* A meal )e chosen if either and appetizer or a soup is ordered, )ut not )oth$

Exercise 14: 0en teachin/ assistants are a#aila)le to /rade a test of four questions. Bish to select a different assistant to /rade each question (onl& one assistant per question*. Aow man& possi)le wa&s can the assistant )e chosen for /radin/$

Exercise 15: ;articipant samples 8 products and is asked to pick the )est, the second )est, and the third )est. Aow man& possi)le wa&s$

Exercise 1#: 7uppose that in the taste test, each participant samples ei/ht products and is asked to select the three )est products. Bhat is the num)er of possi)le outcomes$

2,

Probability and Statistics Work Book

Exercise 1$: A contractor has 8 suppliers from which to purchase electrical supplies. Ae will select 3 of these at random and ask each supplier to su)mit a proKect )id. .n how man& wa&s can the selection of )idders )e made$

Exercise 1%: 0went& pla&ers compete in a tournament. .n how ma& wa&s can a* rankin/s )e assi/ned to the top fi#e competitors$ )* the )est fi#e competitors )e randoml& chosen$

Exercise 1&: 0hree )alls are selected at random without replacement from the Kar )elow. +ind the pro)a)ilit& that one )all is red and two are )lack.

Exercise 2': A uni#ersit& warehouse has recei#ed shipment of 25 printers, of which 1' are laser printers and 15 are inkKet models. .f 6 of these 25 are selected at random )& a technician, what is the pro)a)ilit& that e8actl& 3 of those selected are laser printers$

3'

Probability and Statistics Work Book

Exercise 21: 0here are 1! )roken li/ht )ul)s in a )o8 of 1'' li/ht )ul)s. A random sample of 3 li/ht )ul)s is chosen without replacement. a* Aow man& wa&s are there to choose the sample$ )* Aow man& samples contain no )roken li/ht )ul)s$ c* Bhat is the pro)a)ilit& that the sample contains no )roken li/ht )ul)s$ d* Aow man& wa&s to choose a sample that contains e8actl& 1 )roken li/ht )ul)$ e* Bhat is the pro)a)ilit& that the sample contains no more than 1 )roken li/ht )ul)$

Exercise 22: (0utorial 1', 4o.5* An a/ricultural research esta)lishment /rows #e/eta)les and /rades each one as either /ood or )ad for taste, /ood or )ad for its size, and /ood or )ad for its appearance. >#erall, !8- of the #e/eta)les ha#e a /ood taste. Aowe#er, onl& 6,- of the #e/eta)les ha#e )oth a /ood taste and a /ood size. Also, 5- of the #e/eta)les ha#e a /ood taste and a /ood appearance, )ut a )ad size. +inall&, 8 - of the #e/eta)les ha#e either a /ood size or a /ood appearance. a* if a #e/eta)le has a /ood taste, what is the pro)a)ilit& that it also has a /ood size$ )* if a #e/eta)le has a )ad size and a )ad appearance, what is the pro)a)ilit& that it has a /ood taste$

31

Probability and Statistics Work Book

Exercise 23: A local li)rar& displa&s three t&pes of )ooks entitled H7cienceJ (7*, HArtsJ (A*, and H4o#elsJ (4*. ?eadin/ ha)its of randoml& selected reader with respect to these t&pes of )ooks are &ead regularly Probability 7 '.1 A '.23 4 '.3! 7NA 7N4 '.'8 '.', AN4 '.13 7NAN4 '.'5

+ind the followin/ pro)a)ilities and interpret a* P( 7 O A * )* P( 7 O A 2 4 * c* P( 7 O reads at least one * d* P( 7 2 A O 4*

Exercise 24: (0utorial 1', 4o.6* A )atch of 5'' containers for frozen oran/e Kuice contains 5 that are defecti#e. 0wo are selected at random, without replacement, from the )atch. Get A and = denote that the first and second selected is defecti#e respecti#e a* Are A and = independent e#ents$ )* .f the samplin/ were done with replacement, would A and = )e independent$

32

Probability and Statistics Work Book

Exercise 25: @#er&da& (Con to +ri* a )atch of components sent )& a first supplier arri#es at certain inspection facilit&. 0wo da&s a week, a )atch also arri#es from a second supplier. @i/ht& percent of all )atches from supplier 1 pass inspection, and ,'- )atches of supplier 2 pass inspection. >n a randoml& selected da&, what is the pro)a)ilit& that two )atches pass inspection$

Exercise 2#: 0he pro)a)ilit& is 1- that an electrical connector that is kept dr& fails durin/ the warrant& period of a porta)le computer. .f the connector is e#er wet, the pro)a)ilit& of a failure durin/ the warrant& period is 5-. .f ,'- of the connectors are kept dr& and 1'- are wet, what proportion of connectors fail durin/ the warrant& period$

33

Probability and Statistics Work Book

Exercise 2$: %omputer ke&)oard failures are due to fault& electrical connects (12-* or mechanical defects (88-*. Cechanical defects are related to loose ke&s (2!-* or improper assem)l& (!3-*. @lectrical connect defects are caused )& defecti#e wires (35-*, improper connections (13-* or poorl& welded wires (52-*. +ind the pro)a)ilit& that a failure is due to i. ii. loose ke&s improperl& connected or poorl& welded wires.

Exercise 2%: "urin/ a space shot, the primar& computer s&stem is )acked up )& two secondar& s&stems. 0he& operate independentl& of one another, and each is ,'- relia)le. Bhat is the pro)a)ilit& that all three s&stems will )e opera)le at the time of the launch$

Probability and Statistics Work Book

Exercise 2&: A store stocks li/ht )ul)s from three suppliers. 7uppliers A, B, and / suppl& 1'-, 2'-, and !'- of the )ul)s respecti#el&. .t has )een determined that compan& A<s )ul)s are 1defecti#e while compan& B<s are 3- defecti#e and compan& /<s are - defecti#e. .f a )ul) is selected at random and found to )e defecti#e, what is the pro)a)ilit& that it came from supplier B$

Exercise 3': A particular cit& has three airports. Airport A handles 5'- of all airline traffic, while airports = and % handle 3'- and 2'-, respecti#el&. 0he rates of losin/ a )a//a/e in airport A, = and % are '.3, '.15 and '.1 respecti#el&. .f a passen/er arri#es in the cit& and losses a )a//a/e, what is the pro)a)ilit& that the passen/er arri#es at airport A$

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Probability and Statistics Work Book

Exercise 31: A compan& rated !5- of its emplo&ees as satisfactor& and 25- unsatisfactor&. >f the satisfactor& ones 8'- had e8perience, of the unsatisfactor& onl& '-. .f a person with e8perience is hired, what is the pro)a)ilit& that (s*he will )e satisfactor&$

Exercise 32: .n a certain assem)l& plant, three machines, = 1, =2, =3, make 3'-, 5- and 25-, respecti#el&, of the products. .t is known from past e8perience that 2-,3- and 2- of the products made )& each machine, respecti#el&, are defecti#e. 4ow, suppose that a finished product is randoml& selected. i. ii. Bhat is the pro)a)ilit& that it is defecti#e$ .f a product was chosen randoml& and found to )e defecti#e, what is the pro)a)ilit& that it was produced )& machine =3$

36

Probability and Statistics Work Book

Exercise 33: (0utorial 1', 4o.!* 0hree machines A, = and % produce identical items of their respecti#e output 5-, - and 3- of the items are fault&. >n a certain da& A has produced 25-, = has produced 3'- and % has produced 5- of the total output. An item selected at random is found to )e fault&. Bhat are the chances that it was produced )& %$

Exercise 34: (0utorial 1', 4o.8* 7uppose that a test for .nfluenza A, A141 disease has a #er& hi/h success rate1 if a tested patient has the disease, the test accuratel& reports this, a <positi#e<, ,,- of the time, and if a tested patient does not ha#e the disease, the test accuratel& reports that, a <ne/ati#e<, ,5- of the time. 7uppose also, howe#er, that onl& '.1- of the population ha#e that disease. (i* (ii* (iii* Bhat is the pro)a)ilit& that the test returns a positi#e result$ .f the patient has a positi#e, what is the pro)a)ilit& that he has the disease$ Bhat is the pro)a)ilit& of a false positi#e$

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Probability and Statistics Work Book

Exercise 35: An insurance compan& char/es &oun/er dri#ers a hi/her premium than it does older dri#ers )ecause &oun/er dri#ers as a /roup tend to ha#e more accidents. 0he compan& has 3 a/e /roups1 Eroup A includes those less than 25 &ears old, ha#e a 22- of all its polic&holders. Eroup = includes those 2553, &ears old, ha#e a 3- of all its polic&holders, Eroup % includes those ' &ears old and older, ha#e 35- of all its polic&holders. %ompan& records show that in an& /i#en one5&ear period, 11- of its Eroup A polic&holders ha#e an accident. 0he percenta/es for /roups = and % are 3- and 2-, respecti#el&. (a* ()* Bhat is the pro)a)ilit& that the compan&<s polic&holders are e8pected to ha#e an accident durin/ the ne8t 12 months$ 7uppose Cr. %hon/ has Kust had a car accident. .f he is one of the compan&<s polic&holders, what is the pro)a)ilit& that he is under 25$

38