Latin American Hegemony Impact File

*** LA HEG BAD

Fails General 1NC

Internal conflicts mean Was ington is !etter off letting Latin America sol"e t eir o#n pro!lems Naim $ (Moises Naim -- a senior associate in Carnegies International Economics Program, Focusing on IR and Global Politics and Chief of El Pa s, !"ains largest ne#s"a"er -- For the Carnegie Endo#ment for International Peace -- $%he Good Neighbor !trateg&$ 'ul& (th, )**+ -carnegieendo#ment,org-)**+-*(-*(-good-neighbor-strateg&-./a01 !M 2 "residential election too close to call, 2ggrie3ed 3oters in the streets, Partisans e/changing accusations of fraud and demanding manual recounts, 4a#&ers drooling in e/"ectation of #ee5s of court fights, !ound familiar6 It should, Me/ico Cit& toda& feels a lot li5e %allahassee, Fla,, si/ &ear ago, 7ut Me/ico8s election is about much more than #ho #ill become the countr&8s ne/t President, and its result #ill ha3e lasting im"lications for 4atin 2merica as a #hole , In )***, although 9,!, 3oters #ere choosing bet#een
t#o 3er& different "residential candidates, onl& a minorit& felt that the outcome #ould drasticall& alter the basic foundations of the nation, Not so for Me/icans, :oters belie3ed the election #ould not onl& decide #ho #ould run the

countr& for si/ &ears but also, more fundamentall&, #hat 5ind of "olitical and economic s&stem Me/ico #ould ha3e, %he "latforms of the t#o leading candidates--the conser3ati3e Feli"e Calder;n and the leftist 2ndr<s
Manuel 4;"e= >brador--differed on the roles of the state 3s, the mar5et, the nature of "olitical institutions, ho# to fight "o3ert& and #hat 5inds of lin5s Me/ico should ha3e #ith the rest of the #orld, %hat clash of 3isions is not confined to Me/ico,

!imilar battles are raging throughout 4atin 2merica, #hich is #itnessing the rise of a generation of "oliticians see5ing to ca"itali=e on frustration #ith the free-mar5et, "ro-2merican "olicies commonl& "ursued in the region in the 0??*s, #hen much #as "romised and little #as accom"lished in terms of raising li3ing standards, %he leader of this turn to#ard "o"ulism is :ene=uelan President @ugo ChA3e=, #ho has cast himself as the heir to Fidel Castro, using his countr&8s oil bonan=a to "urchase "olitical influence all o3er the continent, 7ut
in recent months, the ChA3e= mo3ement has run u" against o""osition from forces that 3ie# it as #rongheaded, militaristic and undemocratic, In Me/ico8s election, as in Peru8s last month, ChA3e= turned out to be more of a liabilit& than an asset to the leftist candidate carr&ing his banner, %hat ambi3alence "ro3ides an o""ortunit& for the 9,!, %he issues fueling the ChA3e=

mo3ement--"o3ert&, ineBualit&, e/clusion, corru"tion and #ides"read frustration--ha3en8t gone a#a&, Ces"ite the "erorations of "o"ulists li5e ChA3e= and Castro, 4atin 2merica8s maladies are not made in Dashington but are
self-inflicted #ounds originating in the "redator& <lites that control "olic&ma5ing in "laces li5e 7uenos 2ires, Caracas, 7ras lia and Me/ico Cit&, %hose are "roblems for #hich Dashington has ne3er had the s5ills or the means to

influence, >n the #hole, the 9,!, is better off letting 4atin 2mericans figure out ho# to sol3e 4atin 2merica8s "roblems,

Fails Economics 1NC

%acroeconomic fail&res mean pro!lems can ne"er act&ally !e sol"e' in Latin America Naim 11 (Moises Naim -- a senior associate in Carnegies International Economics Program, Focusing on IR and Global Politics and Chief of El Pa s, !"ains largest ne#s"a"er -- For the Carnegie Endo#ment for International Peace $Dhile Dashington !lee"s$ March )Erd, )*00 carnegieendo#ment,org-)*00-*E-)E-#hile-#ashington-slee"s-EFth1 !M
In "olitics, a ne# cohort of "residents has been elected through fair and free elections, 2ll of these ne#l& elected heads of state come to "o#er #ith broadl& "ositi3e attitudes to#ard the 9nited !tates, Dhile Fust a fe# &ears ago @ugo ChA3e= enFo&ed the admiration of the 3ast maForit& of 4atin 2mericans #ho detested George D, 7ush, toda& ChA3e= "o"ularit& has "lummeted, Mean#hile, li5e e3er&#here else in the #orld, the election of 7arac5 >bama as "resident #as #idel& cheered in the Destern hemis"here, Get, li5e others,

4atin 2mericans feel disa""ointed as the ne# 9,!, "residentHchallenged b& domestic "roblems and distracted b& international emergenciesHhas failed to meet their high and clearl& unrealistic e/"ectations about a maFor redefinition of 9,!, "olicies to#ard its southern neighbors, %he& are right, President
>bama #ould be hard "ressed to describe the fundamental #a&s in #hich his go3ernments "olicies to#ard 4atin 2merica differ from those of his "redecessor, Nonetheless, >bamas "ersonal standing and "o"ularit& in the region remain 3er& high, Ces"ite the o""ortunities created b& the 9,!, "residents good standing, the man& ne# 4atin go3ernments eager to engage constructi3el& #ith the 9nited !tates, and the "ossibilities created b& the ra"id changes ta5ing "lace south of the border, the 9,!, go3ernments "resence and influence in its o#n bac5&ard continues to be subdued and constrained, Mean#hile, other countries are enlarging

their foot"rints in 4atin 2merica, China and Iran, for e/am"le, #ere once remote and un5no#n in the region, %oda&, China has gained a significant economic influence in 4atin 2merica and Iran has forged an un"recedented "olitical "resence #ith se3eral countries thereHnotabl& :ene=uela and others in the 7oli3ian 2lternati3e for the 2mericas (24721 grou", Russia has also made un"recedented strides as a su""lier to the armed forces of countries that, mostl& in the "ast, relied on 9,!, com"anies for their arms "rocurement, %he region is also rife #ith "olitical and economic changeHe3en in "laces #here "olitics and economic "olicies ha3e been stagnant for half a centur& or more, In Cuba, Fidel Castro recentl& ac5no#ledged to a 3isiting 9,!, Fournalist that the islands economic model no longer #or5s, Dhile he Buic5l& recanted his indiscrete comment, facts s"o5e
louder than his #ords, 'ust three da&s after Castro e/"lained that he #as misunderstood and misBuoted, the Cuban go3ernment announced the dismissal of I**,*** go3ernment em"lo&ees (0* "ercent of the countr&s #or5force1, 2ccording to the go3ernment, la&offs are necessar& because the economic #a&s of the "ast are no longer sustainable, Get, in toda&s 4atin 2merica,

macroeconomic failure is more the e/ce"tion than the norm, Dhile the economies of Cuba and :ene=uela ran5 among the #orst "erformers in the #orld , those of 7ra=il, Colombia, Chile, Peru, and other
countries are booming, E3en Me/icoH#hich suffers from chronic slo# gro#th and #as hard hit b& narcotics 3iolence, "andemics, and other maFor shoc5sHis reco3ering at an uncharacteristicall& fast cli", %he 3oracious global a""etite for the regions natural resources s"urred gro#th #hile good economic "olicies 5e"t inflation and deficits in chec5, %he fa3orable e/ternal economic en3ironment, good macro-economic management, and more effecti3e anti-"o3ert& "olicies ha3e had enormousl& "ositi3e social im"acts, In recent &ears, tens of millions of 4atin 2mericans #ere able to im"ro3e their economic situation and lea3e the ran5s of the "oor, 2 fast-gro#ing middle class is an im"ortant and #elcome no3elt& in a region #here middle-income grou"s #ere not onl& relati3el& small but #ere regularl& "ushed bac5 into "o3ert& b& bouts of declining #ages, unem"lo&ment, inflation, and ban5ing crises that 3a"ori=ed their sa3ings, >f course, all of this does not mean that the traditional "roblems that

"lagued the region ha3e been sol3ed, 7ad schools and uni3ersities, "oor health care, corru"tion, and ineBualit& are still endemic, 2nd ne# tragedies ha3e emergedJ the car bombs, torture, and the beheading of ri3als #e sa# on the ne#s from IraB and 2fghanistan no# come instead from Me/ico, More "eo"le are 5illed in a #ee5end in Caracas than in Kabul or 7aghdad, 4atin 2merica is one of the most criminal regions in the #orld in terms of murders and the "ercentage of its econom& related to illicit traffic5ing, %his is not a "roblem #ith an eas& solution,

Fails Diplomacy 1NC

(tr&ct&ral Barriers )re"ent *( lea'ers ip in Latin America +&lc in 1, e/"ert in contem"orar& 4atin 2merican studies, s"eciali=ing in foreign "olic& and
com"arati3e urban de3elo"ment, !enior Fello#, Me/ico and Central 2merica Program at @ar3ard 9ni3ersit&('ose"h %ulchin, L!etting the 2gendaJ 2sia and 4atin 2merica in the )0st Centur&M, "g )0N htt"J--scholarl&re"ositor&,miami,edu-cgi-3ie#content,cgi6 articleO0***Pconte/tOclasQ"ublicationsR

In an effort to ma5e a com"licated subFect as sim"le as "ossible in a short "resentation, it is m& S 3ie# that, since ?-00, the strategic

frame#or5 used b& the 9! go3ernment has reduced 4atin 2merica S to a =one of relati3e insigniTcance, %he "roblem is not that some countr& is threatening 9! interests S in the hemis"here or using the hemis"here to
threaten the 9!N instead, the 9!, since the beginning S of the George D, 7ush administration, has lac5ed a clear 3ie# of the role of 4atin 2mericaHeither S an& single 4atin 2merican countr& or the grou" of countries o"erating #ithin the frame#or5 of the S >rgani=ation of 2merican !tates (>2!1 or 9NHin the "ost-Cold Dar #orld, S Neither 7ush nor >bama has been able to focus sufTcientl& on the hemis"here to "roduce a coherent foreign "olic& that satisTes 9! interests in 4atin 2merica and res"onds to the ne#l& S emerging 3oices in the region, In conseBuence, the 9! go3ernment, in dealing #ith the hemis"here, S has de3oted most of its attention to issues tied directl& to domestic concerns, such as drug trafTc5ing,immigration, and Cuba, E3en trade, #hich could easil& be the focus of regional or collecti3e attention, S is handled as an outgro#th of concern for the domestic econom&, %he 2"ril )*0) !ummit of the S 2mericas in Cartagena #as a clear indication of the absence of 9! leadershi" and focus, #ith almost S no attem"t to Tnd #a&s to tie the hemis"here together or e/"lore increasing regional collaboration, S Part of the "roblem is that in the "ost-Cold Dar "eriod, the nations of 4atin 2merica ha3e found S it e/tremel& difTcult to Tnd their o#n 3oices to e/"ress their ne# sense of agenc&, Moreo3er, there S are clear signs of considerable disagreement among the nations of the

region, #hich ma5es an& S collaborati3e effort among them more difTcult, 2n& argument that 9! hegemon& is in decline assumes S a uni3ocal 4atin 2merican res"onse to that hegemon&, In fact, it is 3er& difTcult to demonstrate S an& grou" consensus among the nations in 4atin 2merica , at least one that can be
translated into S collecti3e action or Foint "olic&, S %hat brings me bac5 to China, China "la&s se3eral different roles in 4atin 2merica, %he most S "rominent is its seemingl& insatiable consum"tion of commodities, as if China #ere a large industrial S &a# ta5ing in unimaginable Buantities of 4atin 2merican ra# materials, In addition, it continues its S more traditional role of e/"orter of chea" manufactured goods, the role it has "la&ed in the 9! for S decades and, most "rominentl&, in Me/ico for the "ast t#ent& &ears, It is "la&ing both roles in 7ra=il S at the moment, creating a serious "olitical "roblem for President Cilma Rouseff, S %he role that concerns the radical declinists and the Pentagon is the soft-s"o5en Chinese role of S lender and in3estor, %hat is the role ChA3e= tried to get China to "la& in :ene=uela, %he t#o countries S signed agreements #ith great fanfare, but 3er& little has ha""ened, In Ecuador, China has become S the lender of last resort and a maFor in3estor, %hroughout the 2ndean region, it ser3es as a maFor S in3estor, not lender, in the mining sector, %his alread& has stirred nationalist sentiment in Peru, #here S a Chinese state-o#ned com"an& sent in uniformed Chinese securit& guards to "rotect the com"an&s S "ro"ert&, setting off alarm bells about a re"eat of e/"eriences in 2frica, %he e3idence of Chinese S intentions is ambiguous, In most e/am"les of direct in3estment, Chinese state-controlled enter"rises S generall& o"erate through third "arties, #ith due diligence "erformed b& "ri3ate Trms contracted S to do the #or5, !uch in3estment "roFects are embedded sociall& in #a&s that do not occur in other S forms of loans or trade s#a"s, Con3ersel&, the o"aBue manner in #hich such Chinese enter"rises S o"erate raises sus"icions, %he current Pentagon nightmare is of Chinese statecontrolled in3estment S in the lithium de"osits of 7oli3ia, e/tracted #ith Chinese labor and "rotected b& Chinese troo"s, 2nd S &et, the nationalist reaction in the region to Chinese "retensions is much more signiTcant than an& S "ossible 9! res"onse, S %his brings me to the third Buestion, #hich interests me the most, If I #ere to #rite a "a"er on S this to"ic, I #ould focus on the "erce"tion in 4atin 2merican nations, #hich 3aries from countr& to S countr&, of the roles China does or might "la& in the region, Dhat are the "olic& res"onses b& 4atin S 2merican nations to Chinas ne# "resence6 %he onl& clear ans#er is in the case of 7ra=il, #here S there is signiTcant tension bet#een the t#o go3ernments, %he Chileans also ha3e ta5en u" the S debate, and there are signs that if an& of the announced Chinese in3estments in the mining and S energ& sectors actuall& get off the ground, a serious debate #ill emerge in 2rgentina as #ell, In Ecuador and :ene=uela, noted for their loud rhetorical noises against the 9!, the Chinese "resence S is considered another form of anti-im"erialism and the rise of China e3idence of 9! decline, S 2t this moment, on balance, Chinas role in 4atin 2merica is still ill formed, %he "roblem is not S China but rather the lac5 of a clear 9! stance and a #ea5 "olic& debate in 4atin 2merica, !e3eral S scenarios are "ossible going for#ard, >ne is that neither the 9! nor the 4atin 2merica

nations #ill S formulate a collecti3e "olic& to deal #ith the ne# "henomenon , and "ublic discussion #ill
continue S to entertain #ild s"eculations and cons"irac& theories, 2nother scenario is that 7ra=il #ill ta5e the S lead to get the Comunidad de Estados 4atinoamericanos & CaribeUos (CE42C1 or 9ni;n de Naciones S !uramericanas (9N2!9R1 to formulate a collecti3e res"onse based on shared 3alues or interests, For S e/am"le, it is difTcult, but not im"ossible, to imagine a concerted effort to formulate rules concerning S in3estments in natural resources, Can #e imagine a Mercosur "olic& on China6 Can Me/ico get the S countries of Central 2merica to Foin a regional res"onse to Chinese trade6 It is also "ossible that a S "olic& based on

em"hasis of the rule of la# #ill "ro3ide a frame#or5 for dealing #ith an& e/ternal S inVuence on the regions domestic "olicies,

Fails Anti-Americanism 1NC

Attempts at reasserting *( egemony in t e region increases Anti-american !ac.las Cran'all 11 W 2ssociate Professor of International Politics at Ca3idson College and the author of %he 9nited !tates and 4atin 2merica 2fter the Cold Dar, @e #as Princi"al Cirector for the Destern @emis"here at the 9,!, Ce"artment of Cefense in )**? and Cirector for 2ndean 2ffairs at the National !ecurit& Council in )*0*-00 (Russell, LPost-2merican @emis"hereJ Po#er and Politics in an 2utonomous 4atin 2merica,M Foreign 2ffairs, ?*,E (Ma&'une )*001J "XE, htt"J--heinonline,org-@>4-Page6 handleOhein,Fournals-fora?*Pdi3O.?PgQsentO01--@24 4E%%ING G> >F 42%IN 2MERIC2 In his first term, 9,!, President George D, 7ush ado"ted a hea3&-handed, unilateral a""roach to 4atin 2merica, attem"ting to force go3ernments there to a""ro3e the 9,!, in3asion of IraB and ensure 9,!, soldiers8 e/em"tion from the Furisdiction of the International Criminal Court, %his strateg& bac5fired, and man& go3ernments, including traditional 9,!, "artners such as Chile and Me/ico, refused, !o in his second term, 7ush attem"ted
a more conciliator& a""roach, for instance, culti3ating a "ersonal relationshi" #ith the leftist 4ula, 7ut it #as too little, too lateN Cha3e= and other radicals still "la&ed u" 7ush8s re"utation as a bull&, 2fter >bama too5 office, ho#e3er, it became much harder to use the 9,!,-bashing strateg&, In 2"ril )**?, at the !ummit of the 2mericas in %rinidad, >bama tried to "ut his im"rimatur on Dashington8s 4atin 2merica "olic&, em"hasi=ing mutual res"ect and outlining a 3ision of eBual "artnershi"s and Foint res"onsibilit&, @is deferential &et serious st&le Buic5l& "ut the most cons"iratorial anti-9,!, critics, such as Cha3e=, Morales, and >rtega, on the defensi3e--#here the& ha3e remained e3er since, %he 9nited !tates8 enhanced image should not be dismissed as a mere "ublic relations 3ictor&N rather, it is indis"ensable to restoring Dashington8s influence in 4atin 2merica, since it ma5es it easier for #illing go3ernments to coo"erate #ith Dashington on shared "riorities #ithout a""earing to be subser3ient to the old hegemon, >bama8s a""roach to the region can be seen as a more concerted continuation of the one 7ush ado"ted in his second term, em"hasi=ing res"onsibilit& as a "rereBuisite for coo"eration and leadershi" - an im"licit call for 4atin 2merica to sol3e its o#n "roblems, >ther than focusing on Me/ico8s drug 3iolence , the

>bama administration has not made 4atin 2merica a "riorit&, %his ma& not be so badJ a little breathing room is a""ro"riate, gi3en the region8s current stabilit&, @a3ing recast the mood of the relationshi" bet#een the 9nited !tates and 4atin 2merica, the >bama administration must no# figure out ho# to "ut its strateg& into "ractice, It #ill need to sho# #hat strategic "atience and understated leadershi" actuall& loo5 li5e, 2 critical test of that is Me/ico, a countr& sorel& in need of 9,!, assistance to combat its drug 3iolence, Get Me/ico8s dee"l& ingrained sus"icion of 9,!, moti3es means that an& initiati3es to counter this cross-border threat must be "ursued delicatel&, lest Dashington find itself accused of 3iolating Me/ico8s so3ereignt& &et again, %he >bama administration also needs to resist the tem"tation to allo# strategic "atience to slide into neglect, 2nd it remains to be seen #hether it #ill in3est time in 7ra=il and other $noncrisis$ cases #hen so much of Dashington8s alread& limited attention has been occu"ied b& @aiti, @onduras, and Me/ico,

Fails Anti-Americanism ,NC

*( softpo#er fails in Latin America- anti-american pop&list lea'ers Hellinger 11, Professor of Political !cience at Debster 9ni3ersit& in !t, 4ouis, #here he also
directs the International Relations Program(Caniel @ellinger, 'une )E, )*00, L>bama and the 7oli3arian 2gendas of the 2mericasMN4atin 2merican Pers"ecti3es )*00N htt"J--la",sage"ub,com,"ro/&,lib,umich,edu-content-EX-.-.+,full,"dfYhtmlR internationalists, headed b& the distinguished scholar 'ose"h N&e, argue that the 9nited !tates should "refer multilateral di"lomac& (Cohen,S N&e, and 2rmitage, )**(1, Curing the "residential cam"aign N&e told theS @uffington Post (('une 0), )**X1, L!oft "o#er rests on the s5ills of emotionalS intelligence, 3ision, and communication that >bama "ossesses in abundance,MS %he >bama administration has ado"ted his u"dated 3ersion of Lsoft "o#erMH Lsmart "o#erM (N&e, )**X1, combining LsoftM and LhardM "o#erHas the moni5erS for its o#n di"lomac&, N&e and others ha3e "ublished, under theS "atronage of the Center for !trategic and International !tudies, a blue"rint forS smart "o#er, %he re"ort laments that La strong and gro#ing sentimentHS "romoted b& a ne# generation of "o"ulist leadersHhas also emerged in theS region that 9,!,-led globali=ation has left large "oc5ets of 4atin 2mericanS societies behind,M %his sentiment, combined #ith fears of 9,!, unilateralismS and disregard for international la# and institutions, is Lta""ing into old threads S of anti-2mericanismM (Cohen, N&e, and 2rmitage, )**(J 0?1,S %he theor& of smart "o#er can be 3ie#ed as an attem"t to reconcile "romotionS of globali=ation #ith the realit& that the Lghost of Dest"halia M (Kegle&S and Ra&mond, )**01 continues to haunt the liberal internationalist 3ision of aS uni3ersal order based on com"arati3e ad3antage, go3ernance b&
4iberal intergo3ernmentalS organi=ations, and ci3il liberties, %he "rinci"le of national so3ereignt&S conflicts #ith attem"ts to frame a uni3ersal order based on a laisse=-faireS global econom&, human rights, and liberal democrac&, @ardt and NegriS ()***1 ha3e argued that #e are alread& some #a& do#n the road to#ard suchS a globali=ed #orld order, one that resembles the em"ires of ancient GreeceS and Rome, 2s in the ancient #orld, the 9nited !tates is a central "olitical andS militar& "o#er "residing o3er a 3ast s&stem of decentrali=ed economic "o#er,S diffusing its cultural and "olitical norms throughout the #orld, @o#e3er,S these #riters also see resistance to such an order in the figure of the

%he ca"acit& and #ill of elites in the 9nited !tates to ad3ance such a "roFectS "oses obstacles to the "ros"ects for 7oli3arian di"lomac& , Consider the choicesS confronting the regions leadersJ !hould the& "ut the em"hasis on lin5ingS their economies in a trade bloc5 led b& the 9nited !tates, or should the& "ursueS regional economic integration inde"endent of the 9nited !tates and attem"tS also to di3ersif& their trade "artners b& dealing #ith 2sia and Euro"e6 !houldS the& de3elo" inde"endent
LmultitudeMS (@ardt and Negri, )**.1,S

securit& "olicies in areas li5e the drug trade and terrorism,S or should the& #or5 to enhance securit& through the >2!6 !hould the&S #elcome Dashingtons attem"ts to "romote liberal democrac& and use it to gainS di"lomatic le3erage in defense of "o"ulist or re3olutionar& regimes that gainS legitimac& through elections, or should the& be sus"icious and insist on theirS so3ereign right to choose the form of go3ernment best suited to their needs6

No ope for Latin American Hegemony-Boli"arianism is in erently anti-American Hellinger 11, Professor of Political !cience at Debster 9ni3ersit& in !t, 4ouis, #here he also directs the International
Relations Program(Caniel @ellinger, 'une )E, )*00, L>bama and the 7oli3arian 2gendas of the 2mericasMN4atin 2merican Pers"ecti3es )*00N htt"J--la",sage"ub,com,"ro/&,lib,umich,edu-content-EX-.-.+,full,"dfYhtmlR :ene=uelan di"lomac& under ChA3e= does not mince #ords in describing S Dashingtons goals for 4atin 2merica (see Ministerio Po"ular "ara la Comunicaci;n & Informaci;n, )**X1, In a letter #elcoming the founding of S the 9nion of !outh 2merican Nations (9N2!9R1 on 2ugust 00, )**?,S ChA3e= #rote,0S It is e3ident that, in light of the "rogressi3e and democratic ste"s of our continent,S the

North 2merican Em"ireH#hich in the last hundred &ears has e/ercisedS its hegemon& o3er the li3es of our re"ublicsHhas initiated an anachronisticS and reactionar& counteroffensi3e #ith the "ur"ose of sub3erting the union, so3ereignt&S and democrac& of our continent and im"osing the restoration of im"erial S domination u"on all as"ects of our societies,S 2lthough ChA3e= has sometimes "raised >bama, this statement is more reflecti3e S of

his #orld3ie# and orientation in foreign "olic&, S Dhile critics often #rite off ChA3e=s nationalist and anti-im"erialist rhetoric S as a tactic to distract :ene=uelans from "roblems at home, in fact the roots S of 7oli3arian di"lomac& are to be found in the debates and discussions thatS too5 "lace among &oung 4ieutenant ChA3e=, leftist intellectuals, and former S guerrillas, 3eterans of the defeated armed insurgenc& of the 0?+*s, ChA3e=sS 3ie#s #ere also influenced b& the arguments of the 2rgentine nationalist S Peronist Norberto Ceresole (0???1, Dhile ChA3e= ne3er ado"ted the 2rgentinesS anti-!emitism and anticommunism, he did embrace

the claim that 9,!, unilateralismS is the greatest threat to #orld "eace and to the e/ercise of so3ereignt&S in 4atin 2merica, >3er time, other leftist intellectuals, including Noam Choms5&S (#ho is often Buoted b& ChA3e=1, hel"ed the :ene=uelan "ut these 3ie#s in aS more "rogressi3e frame#or5, but ChA3e=s affinit& for leaders li5e

IransS Mahmoud 2hmadineFad and 4ib&as Muammar Kaddafi can be e/"lained in S "art b& the #a& Ceresole sha"ed his #orld3ie#, @arold %rin5unas ()*0*J 0(1S summari=es ChA3e=s shift from :ene=uelas "ast
foreign "olic& as follo#sJS :ene=uelas foreign "olic& is re3olu tionar& not for its methods but for its obFecti3es, S It is dri3en b& a "rofound de"arture e in its leaders strategic anal&sis of the S international order, , , , Dhat is ne# about foreign "olic& thin5ing in the ChA3e=S regime is its identification of the 9nited !tates as the main threat to :ene=uela, S and of 9,!, hegemon& as a threat to the international communit& that should beS contained b& the de3elo"ment of alternati3e "oles of global "o#er,

Fails Delay +ric. 1NC

Anti-American sentiment 'ooms any attempt to restore egemony in Latin America no# --- stepping !ac. gra'&ally restores cre'i!ility in t e region )aterson/ 0 (Commander Pat, 9,!, Na3&, L>ur Daning Influence to the !outh,M Proceedings Maga=ine, Ma& )**?, :olume 0EI, Issue I, htt"J--###,usni,org-maga=ines-"roceedings-)**?*I-our-#aning-influence-south, %ashma1 De are still res"ected as the #orld8s most "o#erful militar&, but the economic motor that dri3es the global econom& and 9,!, coo"eration #ith 4atin 2merica is in bad sha"e, 4eftist go3ernments are "roliferatingHand are o""osed to 9,!, "olicies, Counter-drug efforts are barel& maintaining status Buo, >ur interference in the internal "olitics and so3ereign issues of 4atin 2merican countries has left a resentment and sus"icion of our acti3ities, %he Free %rade of the 2mericas has basicall& colla"sed, >ur unilateralism in IraB and 2fghanistan has alienated #hat fe# friends #e had to the south,
Foreign "o#ers li5e :ene=uela, 7ra=il, China, and Iran are filling the 3acuum that 9,!, hegemon& has left behind, >"en communication, honest&, and a#areness of sus"icions about 9,!, action #ill hel" to re"air relations

#ith those #ho should be our natural allies, %his #ill also hel" to a3oid further damage b& those hostile to us, 7ut the remed& for long-damaged relations #ill not be Buic5, De need a strategic "atience to achie3e the long-term in3estment in our regional "artners, !ecretar& of Cefense Robert Gates understands the long-term effort necessar&, $%he solution is not to be found in some slic5 cam"aign or b& tr&ing to out-"ro"agandi=e Z2merican o""onentsR,$ he sa&s, $but through a stead& accumulation of actions and results that build trust and credibilit& o3er time,$ 00 For no#, 9,!, "olic& in the area should be humble, not arrogantN modest, not boastfulN multilateral, not unilateralN com"assionate, not belligerentN honest, not h&"ocritical, 9nli5e our "ast beha3ior in 4atin 2merica, no# is t e time to spea. 1&ietly an' p&t 'o#n o&r !ig stic.2

*ns&staina!le 1NC
*( infl&ence in Latin America is 'eclining no# Crandall 00 W 2ssociate Professor of International Politics at Ca3idson College and the author of %he 9nited !tates and 4atin 2merica 2fter the Cold Dar, @e #as Princi"al Cirector for the Destern @emis"here at the 9,!, Ce"artment of Cefense in )**? and Cirector for 2ndean 2ffairs at the National !ecurit& Council in )*0*-00 (Russell, LPost-2merican @emis"hereJ Po#er and Politics in an 2utonomous 4atin 2merica,M Foreign 2ffairs, ?*,E (Ma&-'une )*001J "XE, htt"J--heinonline,org-@>4-Page6handleOhein,Fournals-fora?*Pdi3O.?PgQsentO01--@24
>n 2ugust 0X, )*0*, a :ene=uelan drug traffic5er named Dalid Ma5led #as arrested in Colombia, 9,!, officials accused him of shi""ing ten tons of cocaine a month to the 9nited !tates, and the& made a formal e/tradition reBuest to tr& him in Ne# Gor5, 2lthough the :ene=uelan go3ernment had also made an e/tradition reBuest for crimes Ma5led allegedl& committed in :ene=uela, senior 9,!, di"lomats #ere confident that the Colombian go3ernment #ould add him to the list of hundreds of sus"ects it had alread& turned o3er to 9,!, Fudicial authorities in recent &ears, !o it came as a sur"rise #hen Colombian President 'uan Manuel !antos announced in No3ember that he had "romised :ene=uelan President @ugo Cha3e= that Ma5led #ould be e/tradited to :ene=uela, not the 9nited !tates, Colombia, Dashington8s closest all& in !outh 2merica, a""eared to be un3eiling a ne# strategic calculus, one that ga3e less #eight to its relationshi" #ith Dashington, Dhat made the decision all the more une/"ected is that the 9,!, go3ernment still "ro3ides Colombia #ith u"#ard of [I** million annuall& in de3elo"ment and securit& assistance, ma5ing Colombia one of the #orld8s to" reci"ients of 9,!, aid, For the 9nited !tates in 4atin 2merica toda&, a""arentl&, [I** million Fust does not bu& #hat it used to,

2cross the region in recent &ears, the 9nited !tates has seen its influence decline, 4atin 2merican countries are increasingl& loo5ing for solutions among themsel3es, forming their o#n regional organi=ations that e/clude the 9nited !tates and see5ing friends and o""ortunities outside of Dashington8s orbit, !ome 9,!, allies are e3en reconsidering their belief in the "rimac& of relations #ith the 9nited !tates, Much of this has to do #ith the end of the Cold Dar , a conflict that
turned 4atin 2merica into a battleground bet#een 9,!, and !o3iet "ro/ies, Dashington has also made a series of mista5es in the &ears since then, arrogantl& issuing ultimatums that made it e3en harder to get #hat it #anted in 4atin 2merica,

2t the same time as 9,!, influence has diminished, 4atin 2merica8s o#n ca"abilities ha3e gro#n, %he region has entered into an era of un"recedented economic, "olitical, and di"lomatic success , Most 3isibl&, 7ra=il has emerged as an

economic "o#erhouse, attracting foreign in3estment #ith an econom& that gre# (,I "ercent last &ear, (Region#ide, a3erage GCP gro#th last &ear #as I,+ "ercent,1 Regular free elections and 3ibrant ci3il societies are no# common"lace in 4atin 2merica, and the region8s di"lomats are more 3isible and confident in global forums than e3er before, 2fter decades on the recei3ing end of lectures from Dashington and 7russels, 4atin 2merican leaders are eager to ad3ertise their recent gains, !antos has been 5no#n to tell 3isiting foreign counter"arts that this #ill be $4atin 2merica8s centur&,$ 2lthough star "erformers such as 7ra=il and Chile ha3e recentl& surged ahead, 4atin 2merica has &et to reali=e its full collecti3e di"lomatic and "olitical ca"acit&, %he "roblems that ha3e "lagued the region in the "ast--income ineBualit&, a lac5 of la# and order, illicit traffic5ing net#or5s--still e/ist, threatening to derail its hard-earned successes, Guatemala, to ta5e Fust one e/am"le, not onl& ran5s among the #orld8s "oorest countriesN it also has one of the highest homicide rates in the #orld, #ith +,*** "eo"le murdered each &ear in a "o"ulation of onl& 0E million, Ironicall&, moreo3er, 4atin 2merica8s entr& into a $"ost-hegemonic$ era, a "roduct of its o#n ad3ancements, could undermine its "ast "rogress, 2s the balance of "o#er in the region is redistributed, une/"ected alliances and enmities could arise, Man& obser3ers ha3e assumed that less 9,!, in3ol3ement #ould be an inherentl& "ositi3e de3elo"ment, but that ma& be too o"timistic, No one should underestimate the ca"acit& of the :ene=uela-led bloc of Buasiauthoritarian leftist go3ernments to sto" the regional trend to#ard greater o"enness and democrac&--3alues that the bloc sees as re"resenting a ca"itulation to the 9,!,controlled global s&stem, Nonetheless, 4atin

2merica8s emerging democratic consensus seems ine3itable , and as 4atin 2merica8s master, the 9nited !tates must ada"t to the ne# realities of this "ost-hegemonic era, lest it see its influence diminish e3en further, It must demonstrate an abilit& to Buietl& engage and lead #hen a""ro"riate--an a""roach that
its strategic "osture finall& matures, the region #ill be more directl& res"onsible for its o#n successes and failures, 4ong ho# accustomed the 9nited !tates is to dominating the region, this "roFect #ill be harder than it sounds, FR>M @EGEM>NG %> 29%>N>MG

#ill allo# Dashington to remain acti3el& in3ol3ed in the region8s affairs #ithout acting as though it is tr&ing to maintain its legac& of hegemon&, Gi3en

%he era of 9,!, hegemon& in 4atin 2merica began o3er a centur& ago, #hen the 9nited !tates started fle/ing its emerging economic and militar& might in Central 2merica and the Caribbean,
In the Fungles and mountains of Nicaragua, @aiti, and the Cominican Re"ublic, 2merican soldiers and di"lomats used "ersuasion, coercion, and force to ad3ance 9,!, "olitical and economic interests, Curing the Cold Dar, Dashington sought to stem the threat of !o3iet and Cuban communism, acting directl&, for e/am"le, #hen it in3aded Grenada in 0?XE and Panama in 0?X?, and indirectl&, as #hen it "ro3ided co3ert funding to undermine Chilean President !al3ador 2llende8s leftist go3ernment in the 0?(*s, !ometimes these efforts #or5ed, as in Chile and Grenada, but often the& did notN both the 7a& of Pigs o"eration in 0?+0 and 9,!, efforts to o3erthro# b& "ro/& the !andinista regime in Nicaragua in the 0?X*s #ere outright failures,

*2(2 egemony in Latin America is &ns&staina!le an' 'oome' litany of factors )aterson/ 0 (Commander Pat, 9,!, Na3&, L>ur Daning Influence to the !outh,M Proceedings Maga=ine, Ma& )**?, :olume 0EI, Issue I, htt"J--###,usni,org-maga=ines-"roceedings-)**?*I-our-#aning-influence-south, %ashma1 Cecades of foreign-"olic& h&"ocris& and economic double standards ha3e resulted in a "er3asi3e resistance to and sus"icion of 9,!, in3ol3ement in 4atin 2merica, %he animosit& manifests itself in #a&s that are direct threats to our national securit&J 9,!, di"lomats ha3e been e/"elled, narcotics traffic5ing has reached

record heights, and our militar& is being ousted from strategicall& im"ortant bases in the region, + e *nited (tates is losing access and infl&ence in Latin American and Caribbean nations li.e ne"er !efore2 9nless #e act Buic5l&, #e ma& be unable to regain our standing in this 3ital area, !ince 0X**, 4atin 2merica has endured almost 0** 9,!, militar& or intelligence inter3entions, Concerned about communist e/"ansion during the 0?(*s and 0?X*s, the 9nited !tates su""orted a number of autocrats and militar& Funtas fighting against insurgents, %hese internal conflicts led to "re3ailing go3ernments8 brutal su""ression of leftist grou"s and ci3ilians caught in the middle, often at the cost of ci3il liberties and human rights, %he $dirt& #ars$ re3ealed a h&"ocris& in 9,!, foreign "olic&J "ublicl& #e "romoted democrac& and indi3idual freedoms #hile "ri3atel& "ro3iding su""ort for abusi3e dictators, %he 9nited !tates mo3ed from "assi3e to acti3e inter3ention #ith the CI2-engineered cou"s of democraticall& elected go3ernments in Guatemala in 0?I. and Chile in 0?(E, causes c<l\bres for those #ho toda& o""ose 9,!, in3ol3ement in the region, In the 0?X*s in Central 2merica, 9,!,-su""orted right-#ing go3ernments resulted in nearl& .**,*** deaths , In Guatemala, a E+-&ear
ci3il #ar left nearl& )**,*** 5illed, most "oor indigenous farmers, ma5ing it one of 4atin 2merica8s most 3iolent #ars in modern histor&, In 0?X), an 2mnest& International re"ort estimated that o3er 0*,*** indigenous Guatemalans and farmers #ere 5illed in a four-month "eriod, most b& go3ernment death sBuads, %he Nicaraguan ci3il #ar (0?I*-(?1 left I*,*** dead, +**,*** homeless, and [0,+ billion in debt, %he !andinista Re3olution that follo#ed (0?(? - ?*1 left another I*,*** dead, In the El !al3adoran ci3il #ar bet#een 0?(? and 0?X?, the combined death toll for ci3ilians and combatants #as (I,***, Dhile no 9,!, militar& inter3entions ha3e occurred since Grenada in 0?XE ($9rgent Fur&$1 and Panama in 0?X? ($'ust Cause$1, dee"-seated sus"icions of the

9nited !tates hinder modern-da& good#ill efforts, Fortunatel&, the dar5 &ears of mass 3iolence and dictatorial
militar& rule in 4atin 2merica a""ear to be o3er, !ince the 0??*s, a #a3e of democrati=ation has brought liberal and enlightened ideas to the area, forcing hard-line militar& go3ernments and conser3ati3e forces to cede "o#er, 2ll 4atin 2merican countries toda& ha3e democratic "rocesses, #ith the e/ce"tion of Cuba, In recent &ears, "rogressi3e and "o"ulist "olicies ha3e ta5en root in the region, %his is as much a bac5lash to the conser3ati3e militar& go3ernments as it is a "ublic cr& for assistance against "o3ert&, #hich a3erages .* "ercent in 4atin 2merica, 4eftist go3ernments no# head 0) of the 0+ !outh and Central 2merican nations (or (I "ercent1, a com"lete shift from Fust )* &ears ago, 2t that time, (I "ercent #ere led b& right-#ing go3ernments, !ince )*** ,

"o"ulist-leftist leaders li5e @ugo Cha3e= of :ene=uela, Caniel >rtega of Nicaragua, E3o Morales of 7oli3ia, and Rafael Correa of Ecuador ha3e been elected to office, %he& rose to "o#er, in "art, on a #a3e of anti2mericanism, Angere' !y 'eca'es of *2(2 economic egemony and militar& unilateralism, most Latin Americans ol' strongly negati"e "ie#s of *2(2 policies2 In ]ogb& International8s )**+
"oll, X+ "ercent of 4atin 2merican elites rated 9,!, relations in the area as negati3e, #ith onl& 0E "ercent as "ositi3e, 0 >ne #itness testif&ing before Congress Buantified the "roblems as, $De83e ne3er seen numbers this lo#,$ ) 2s a result, our strategic interests there are in Feo"ard&, %his o3erarching anti-2merican sentiment "resents a danger to our national securit& interests, In

7oli3ia, President Morales ordered 9,!, 2mbassador Phili" Goldberg to lea3e the countr& in !e"tember )**X, :ene=uela8s President Cha3e= follo#ed suit b& eFecting 2mbassador Peter Cudd& later the same da&, %his mar5s a first in 9,!, histor&N ne3er before ha3e t#o ambassadors been e/"elled from their assignments simultaneousl&, It also demonstrates ho# the leadershi" of these countries #or5s closel& together, in this case against our interests, !ome of the most im"ortant 9,!, initiati3es in 4atin 2merica ha3e been recentl& bloc5ed or re"laced, :ene=uela and 7ra=il ha3e con3inced some countries to establish a collecti3e securit& agreement (called the 9nion of !outh 2merican Countries, or 9N2!9R1 that #ould e/clude the 9nited !tates, %he 9,!,-led Free %rade of the 2mericas initiati3e , an attem"t to establish a hemis"here-#ide economic-coo"eration =one, has been stalled b& resistance from :ene=uela and others, Ecuador has refused to rene# our lease on the airbase at Manta, forcing the shutdo#n of a strategicall& 3ital for#ard
o"erating location, :ene=uela, one of the #ealthiest countries on the continent because of its 3ast oil reser3es, is emerging as a "o#erful and alarming regional leader at the hands of @ugo Cha3e=, a loud, charismatic leader #ho has re#ritten the constitution to allo# himself to sta& in "o#er, De must ra"idl& ans#er Cha3e= and his "etroleum-fueled anti-9,!, rhetoric, :ene=uela is the fifthlargest oil e/"orter in the #orld and has the ninth-largest oil reser3es, Dith these rich coffers, Cha3e= has been "ro3iding fi3e times more financial assistance to 4atin 2merica than has the 9nited !tatesHand has been gaining influence and "o#er, Cha3e= has been 3ehementl& critical, referring to former President George D, 7ush as the $Ce3il$ and asserting that $the hegemonic "retension of 9,!, im"erialism , , , "uts at ris5 the 3er& sur3i3al of the human s"ecies,$ E In )**(, 'ohn Negro"onte, then-director of National Intelligence, said that President Cha3e= #as $among the most stridentl& anti-2merican leaders an&#here in the #orld, and #ill continue to tr& to undercut 9,!, influence in :ene=uela, in the rest of 4atin 2merica, and else#here internationall&,$ . E3idence indicates that Cha3e= is in cahoots #ith drug traffic5ers and terrorists, >n 0. Ma& )**(, the !tate Ce"artment determined that :ene=uela #as a maFor traffic5er of narcotics to the 9nited !tates and #as friendl& #ith Buasi-terrorist organi=ations li5e the 2rmed Forces of Colombia (Fuer=as 2rmadas de la Re"ublica de Colombia, or F2RC1, %he )**+ International Narcotics Control !trateg& Re"ort statedJ Ram"ant corru"tion and a #ea5 Fudicial s&stem are the main reasons for the "rominent role :ene=uela is no# "la&ing as a 5e& transit "oint for drugs lea3ing Colombia for the 9nited !tates, Colombian guerrillas such as the F2RC, National 4iberation 2rm& ZEFercitos de 4iberacion Nacional, E4NR, and the !elf-Cefense Forces of Colombia Z2uto Cefensas de ColombiaR mo3e freel& through :ene=uela, unchallenged b& the authorities, I :ene=uela also "resents a threat to other regional countries that o""ose Cha3e= or su""ort us, Curing the "ast four &ears, he has been on a [. billion sho""ing s"ree for #ea"ons in Russia, !"ain, and else#here, 9sing its oil #ealth to moderni=e and e/"and its militar&, :ene=uela has been tr&ing to bu& state-of-the-art fighter

aircraft, attac5 helico"ters, and submarines, !trong 9,!, allies li5e Colombia are rightfull& #orried, %he Colombian go3ernment #atched as Cha3e= first aligned himself #ith the F2RC (a grou" tr&ing to to""le the Colombian go3ernment1 and then mobili=ed :ene=uelan troo"s on the Colombian border follo#ing a March )**X dis"ute #ith Ecuador, %he gro#ing resentment of

the 9nited !tates is reflected in ne# challenges for the #ar on drugs, 2 congressional re"ort in >ctober )**X re3ealed that des"ite a [+ billion effort designed to reduce 4atin 2merican cocaine culti3ation and distribution b& I* "ercent o3er the "ast si/ &ears, #e ha3e not stemmed the influ/ of drugs,
Ces"ite 9,!,-led militar& successes against leftist insurgents in Colombia that ha3e decimated the to" F2RC leadershi" and reduced the number of guerillas b& I* "ercent, coca culti3ation has s5&roc5eted b& )( "ercent, Crug c=ar 'ohn Dalsh of the >ffice of National Crug Control Polic& said that the traffic5ing has increased b& as much as .* "ercent, No longer rece"ti3e to Dashington8s reBuests for coo"eration, countries that are the most o""osed to our "olicies are also the

source of man& of the narcotics, 2ir traffic5ing of cocaine from :ene=uela has increased .** "ercent in the "ast three &ears,
In !e"tember )**X, the 9,!, %reasur& announced sanctions against t#o of the heads of :ene=uelan intelligence agencies for their role in traffic5ing, 9"on entering office in 7oli3ia in )**+, former coca gro#er President E3o Morales nearl& doubled the amount of authori=ed land a3ailable for its culti3ation, 2ccording to 9N figures, 7oli3ia coca culti3ation has risen I "ercent since )***, In No3ember )**X, Morales e/"elled 9,!, drug-enforcement agents #or5ing in the countr&, In Ecuador, the forced closure of the 9,!, airbase denies us an im"ortant airfield from #hich to "atrol the eastern Pacific >cean, a transit =one for nearl& (* "ercent of the cocaine that reaches the 9nited !tates, Coast Guard Rear 2dmiral 'ose"h Nimmich, head of the interagenc& counterdrug headBuarters in Ke& Dest, Florida, ac5no#ledged the sco"e of the challenge his grou" faces, $De8re luc5& #e get I "ercent,$ he said, referring to the amount of drugs interce"ted, + %his gro#ing "roblem has al#a&s re"resented a national securit& threat, but ne3er more so than no#, Colombian traffic5ers ha3e used their "rofits to create a ne# and dangerous 3essel, In the "ast, drugs #ere trans"orted on fishing 3essels and s"eedboats, both susce"tible to 9,!, Na3& and Coast Guard search-and-sei=ure efforts, 7ut no# smugglers ha3e begun to use small self-"ro"elled semi-submersibles (!P!!1, In )**X alone, an estimated +* - X* of these craft sailed from Colombia to#ard Central 2merican and Me/ican destinations, Each !P!! carried an a3erage of E - I tons of cocaineN some had a ca"acit& of X - 0* tons of cargo, In a time of "roliferating #ea"ons of mass destruction, the idea of X* to 0** enem& 3essels steaming undetected to#ard the California or Florida coastline re"resents a maFor national securit& threat, %he threat comes from land as #ell as sea, %he flo# of cocaine surging north#ard from !outh 2merican regimes has "ulled Me/ico into an increasingl& dangerous #ar, %he drug-related murder rate there resulted in nearl& I,.** deaths in )**X, more than double the )**( rate of ),I**, Man& 9,!, go3ernment officials #orr& that the conflict has ta5en a turn to#ard so-called Colombiani=ation, In the late 0?X*s and throughout the 0??*s, cartels res"onded to a federal crac5do#n #ith a 3iolent and unlimited #ar against the go3ernment and militar& officials, 7oth the head of the federal "olice and the national drug c=ar #ere recent 3ictims of these cartels, 2n estimated ?* "ercent of the co5e entering the 9nited !tates tra3els through Me/ico, ( %he conflict threatens to s"ill o3er our southern border, More than +* 2mericans ha3e been 5idna""ed or murdered so far, In )**I, 9,!, 2mbassador %on& Gar=a closed the 9,!, consulate in Nue3o 4aredo due to threats against "ersonnel in that border cit&, In >ctober )**X, men #ith rifles and grenades attac5ed the 9,!, consulate in Monterre&, %he "roblems in Me/ico threaten the 3er& e/istence of that countr&, and some strategists ha3e #arned that it could become a failed state, %his #ould be a 3er& #orrisome de3elo"ment in a countr& that shares a 0,(**-mile border #ith us and is our second-biggest trade "artner, 2 Cecember )**X 9,!, 'oint Forces Command re"ort on #orld#ide securt& threats "redicted that Me/ico could e/"erience a $ra"id and sudden colla"se,$ X 7ut #e do not ha3e the resources to "re3ent this from occurring, %he Merida Initiati3e, a [.** million "ac5age "ro3ided in )**X to Me/ico to combat traffic5ing, is onl& a fraction of the estimated [)E billion that Me/ican cartels earn for the drugs flo#ing across our border, 2dditionall&, in )**( the Pentagon reduced funding for anti-drug efforts in Me/ico b& more than +* "ercent, to free u" [X - 0* billion needed monthl& for the #ar in IraB, President 7arac5 >bama8s election offers an o""ortunit& to e/tend an oli3e branch to our southern neighbors, @is election #as #ell recei3ed in 4atin 2mericaN a #orld#ide 77C "oll sho#ed a "reference for >bama to McCain in e3er& single countr& sur3e&ed, b& a four-to-one o3erall margin, E3o Morales seemed to share these ho"es #hen he saidJ $%he entire #orld is ho"ing there #ill be changes, De 7oli3ians #ant to im"ro3e di"lomatic relations,$ ? 7ra=ilian leader President 4ui= 4ula da !il3a echoed the same cautiousl& o"timistic sentiment, %he timing is right, 2ccording to an influential ne# re"ort on emerging global

multilateralism, 9,!, influence is e/"ected to #ane as China and Russia come online, and globali=ation further distributes economic o""ortunities for de3elo"ing nations in 4atin 2merica, 2 ne# 9,!, foreign "olic& focused on the Destern @emis"here ma5es sense, considering our ties here economicall& and
demogra"hicall&, 7& )*I*, more than E* "ercent of our "o"ulation #ill be 4atino, ma5ing it the countr&8s largest minorit&, %hat re"resents a tri"ling of the current @is"anic "o"ulation here, 2lread& #e are the second most "o"ulous !"anish-s"ea5ing countr& in the #orld, after Me/ico,

(e"eral ot er factors 'estroy *2(2 infl&ence in Latin America --a3 + e fail&re of t e I%F Weis!rot/ 14 (Mar5, director of the Centre for Economic and Polic& Research, L4atin 2mericaJ %he End of an Era,M International 'ournal of @ealth !er3ices, :olume E+, Issue ., %ashma1 %he Colla"se of a Cartel >ne reason the historic nature of these changes has not been a""reciated is that Dashingtons most "o#erful influence o3er the region W es"eciall& in the realm of economic "olic& W has ne3er gotten much attention, 2nd that "articular influence has no# Buietl& colla"sed, 9ntil recentl& the International Monetar& Fund (IMF1 headed a "o#erful creditors cartel that #as arguabl& more im"ortant than Dashingtons other le3ers of "o#er W including militar&, "ara-militar&, di"lomatic and other Lsoft "o#erM "roFections such as foreign aid and Ldemocrac& "romotionM "rograms, %his cartel #as not a cons"irac& but rather an informal

arrangement W not #ritten into la# or into the charters of the "artici"ating financial institutions W but nonetheless generall& 3er& effecti3e, %he #a& it #or5ed is that the IMF #as the Lgate5ee"erM for most other sources of
credit for de3elo"ing countr& go3ernments, If a go3ernment did not reach an agreement #ith the IMF, it #ould not be eligible for most lending from the Dorld 7an5, regional ban5s such as the im"ortant Inter-2merican Ce3elo"ment 7an5 in this hemis"here, G( go3ernment loans and grants, and sometimes e3en the "ri3ate sector, %he 0X.-member IMF has al#a&s been dominated b& the 9,!, %reasur& Ce"artment, %echnicall&, the other rich countries, including Euro"ean nations and 'a"an, could out3ote the 9nited !tates (3oting is "ro"ortional to a Buota s&stem of contributions #hich gi3es the rich countries a huge maForit&1 but this has 3irtuall& ne3er ha""ened o3er the last +) &ears, Curing the last )I &ears es"eciall&, this creditors cartel #as enormousl& influential in sha"ing the LDashington ConsensusM "olicies that #ere ado"ted throughout 4atin 2merica and most other lo# and middle income countries, It e/tended far be&ond Fust the ra# "o#er of using control o3er financial resources to influence "olic&, 2s has been 5no#n for decades, the IMF acting as gate5ee"er and enforcer of Lsound economic "olic&M allo#ed the 9 nited

!tates (and sometimes the other rich countries1 to o"erate through an ostensibl& multilateral, neutral, technocratic institution #hen "ressuring de3elo"ing countr& go3ernments to "ri3ati=e their natural resources or run huge "rimar& sur"luses to "a& off debt, It is much more "oliticall& delicate for 9,!, officials to "ublicl& tell
so3ereign go3ernments #hat to do, 2nd as #e #itnessed in the recent 2rgentine debt restructuring, indi3idual creditors W e3en big ban5s W do not ha3e all that much "o#er against a go3ernment that is #illing to go to the brin5, In a default situation, it is in their indi3idual interest to settle for #hat the& can get, cut their losses, and loo5 to the future, It ta5es an e/ternal enforcer W outside of the mar5et W to hold the threat of future "unishment o3er the offending go3ernment, in the interest of the creditors as a class, %his

arrangement began to brea5 do#n in the #a5e of the 2sian economic crisis of the late 0??*s , after
#hich the middle-income countries of that region "iled u" huge foreign e/change reser3es, %he& had suffered through a terrible and humiliating e/"erience #ith IMF-im"osed conditions during the crisis, and although the "ost-crisis accumulation of reser3es had other causes, it also ensured that the& #ould ne3er ha3e to ta5e the Funds ad3ice again, 7ut it #as in 4atin 2merica that

the IMF #as reduced to a shado# of its former self, 2rgentina defaulted on [0** billion of debt at the end of )**0, the largest so3ereign debt default in histor&, %he currenc& and ban5ing s&stem colla"sed, and the econom& #as continuing to shrin5, 2lmost e3er&one assumed that the go3ernment #ould ha3e to reach a ne# agreement #ith the IMF and recei3e an inFection of foreign funds in order to get the econom& gro#ing again, 7ut a &ear #ent b& #ithout an& agreement, and #hen it #as finall& reached there #as no ne# mone&, In fact, the IMF too5 about [. billion net W a huge sum amounting to four "ercent of GCP W out of the
countr& during )**), Get in defiance of the e/"erts, the 2rgentine econom& contracted for onl& three months after the default before beginning to gro#, Four &ears later it is still gro#ing Buite ra"idl&, In fact it has gro#n at the highest rate in the hemis"here, more than ? "ercent annuall& for three &ears, des"ite a continued net drain of mone& out of the countr& to "a& off the official creditors (the IMF, the Dorld 7an5, and the Inter-2merican Ce3elo"ment 7an51 that reached more than [0. billion bet#een )**) and )**I, %he 2rgentine go3ernment under Nestor Kirchner, #ho too5 office in Ma& )**E, also enacted a series of unorthodo/ economic "olicies that #ere strongl& o""osed b& the Fund, including a hard line in bargaining o3er defaulted debt, #hich in3o5ed hostilit& from the international business "ress, along #ith "redictions of "rolonged economic "unishment and stagnation, In one of a number of sho#do#ns #ith the Fund, 2rgentina e3en tem"oraril& defaulted to the IMF itself in !e"tember of )**E W an un"recedented and uncharted mo3e that had "re3iousl& onl& been made b& failed or "ariah states such as Congo or IraB, Cefault to the Fund had hitherto carried the threat of economic isolation, e3en the denial of e/"ort credits necessar& for trade, 7ut the #orld had alread& changed, and the IMF bac5ed do#n, 2rgentinas long battle #ith the Fund W from the disastrous four &ear de"ression, brought on and e/acerbated b& IMF-bac5ed macroeconomic "olicies, through the standoff of )**), and the econom&s subseBuent ra"id reco3er& on its o#n W #as the final blo# to not onl& the Funds credibilit& as an economic ad3isor, but as an enforcer, @o# much difference does the colla"se of this creditors cartel ma5e6 Consider 7oli3ia toda&, #here the leftist, indigenous former leader of the coca gro#ers union, E3o Morales, #as elected #ith the 3oters largest mandate e3er in Cecember, @e "romised to nationali=e the countr&s energ& resources --it #as reall& more of a return to constitutionalit&, since the current contracts #ith foreign energ& com"anies #ere not a""ro3ed b& the congress, as reBuired b& the constitution W #hich account for the biggest chun5 of its e/"ort earnings, and to use these resources to increase the li3ing standards of the countr&s "oor and indigenous maForit&, >n Ma& 0st, Morales announced that the go3ernment #as indeed nationali=ing the gas and oil industr&, and that foreign com"anies #ould ha3e si/ months to renegotiate e/isting contracts, Man& details remain to be #or5ed out, and the situation is com"licated b& the fact that Petrobras, the state-run 7ra=ilian energ& com"an& is the largest gas "roducer, and that 7oli3ia can onl& e/"ort natural gas (#hich is the main energ& e/"ort1 b& "i"eline to 2rgentina and 7ra=il, 7ut the 7oli3ian go3ernment has alread& increased its re3enue from the gas "roducers, from E,. to +,( "ercent of GCP as a result of last &ears h&drocarbons la#, %he increase amounts to a share of the econom& com"arable to most of the 9nited !tates federal budget deficit, %he Ma& 0st nationali=ation #ill increase these re3enues e3en more, allo#ing the go3ernment to deli3er on some of its "romises to the "oor, %he 7oli3ian go3ernment has since announced its intention to "ursue an ambitious land reform "rogram, #hich has also been met #ith hostilit& from the media, 2ccording to the ministr& of rural de3elo"ment, o3er the ne/t fi3e &ears the go3ernment ho"es to redistribute some I.,*** sBuare miles of land, an area the si=e of Greece, to some ),I million "eo"le W about )X "ercent of the "o"ulation, %he 7ush administration had e/"ressed its dis"leasure #ith the ne# go3ernment a cou"le of times, but until 3er& recentl& has been relati3el& cautious about "ublic statements e3er since the 9,!, 2mbassadors denunciation of Morales sent the charismatic leader surging in the "olls and almost carried him to 3ictor& in the )**) Presidential election, 7ut on Ma& )), in an ominous ne# turn, President 7ush told the "ress that he #as Lconcerned about the erosion of democrac&M in 7oli3ia and :ene=uela, %here #ill be further frictions in the near future, not least o3er drug "olic&, Dashington has "ursued its coca eradication agenda in 7oli3ia for &ears #ith little regard to its "olitical, economic, or en3ironmental im"act on an increasingl& angr& local "o"ulation, 2n&one #ho has been to 7oli3ia and seen ho# ubiBuitous coca is there, from the coca tea in restaurants to the lea3es that "eo"le che# as a stimulant and to relie3e altitude sic5ness, can onl& imagine #hat it #ould be li5e if "eo"le in 9nited !tates #ere told that the& must co-o"erate in a Lcoffee eradicationM "rogram at the behest of a foreign go3ernment so as to hel" "re3ent foreigners from abusing the "roduct, Most of Morales electoral base #ants to 5ic5 the

CE2 (the 9,!, Crug Enforcement 2dministration1 out of the countr& tomorro#, Morales has ta5en a moderate "osition, "ledging to co-o"erate in the fight against cocaine and drug traffic5ing, #hile su""orting the legali=ation of the coca "lant and the de3elo"ment of ne# mar5ets for legal "roducts, %he 7ush administration #ill most li5el& find this unacce"table, 7ut #hat can Dashington do about its ne# L"roblemM go3ernment6 Not all that much, %his is all the more un"recedented because 7oli3ia is not :ene=uela, the #orlds fifth largest oil e/"orter, nor 2rgentina, #hich until the late 0??*s de"ression had "racticall& the highest li3ing standards south of our border, It is not a giant li5e 7ra=il, #ith a land area as big as the continental 9nited !tates, It is the "oorest countr& in !outh 2merica, #ith nine million "eo"le and an econom& not e3en one-thousandth the si=e of the 9nited !tates, at current e/change rates, It is "oor and indebted enough to ha3e Bualified for the IMF-Dorld 7an5 @IPC (@ea3il& Indebted Poor Countr&1 debt cancellation initiati3e, and in fact had its IMF and Dorld 7an5 debt W about EI "ercent of the countr&s total foreign "ublic debt W cancelled this &ear after "assing through the reBuisite gauntlet of conditions for se3eral &ears, 7ut 7oli3ia is a free countr& no#, >n March E0, after t#ent& straight &ears of o"erating continuousl& (e/ce"t for eight months1 under IMF agreements W and a real "er ca"ita income ama=ingl& less than it #as )( &ears ago W 7oli3ia let its last agreement #ith the IMF e/"ire, %he go3ernment decided not to see5 a ne# agreement #ith the Fund, >ne of the first Buestions that arose #as, #hat about mone& from other sources6 7oli3ia recei3es not onl& loans but grants from the go3ernments of high-income countries, and until no# e3en grants from the more liberal Euro"ean countries #ere contingent on 7oli3ia meeting the IMFs a""ro3al, 7ut it a""ears that this reBuirement has disa""eared along #ith the IMF agreement, %he 7ush administration cut militar& aid W an insignificant [0,+ million W and ma& reduce other aid flo#s related to anti-drug efforts, %he !"anish go3ernment e/"ressed some concern o3er 7oli3ias nationali=ation of the gas industr&, since Re"sol GPF, !"ains largest oil com"an&, is the second biggest "roducer there, 7ut so far none of the rich countr& go3ernments ha3e tried to use the threat of cutting off loans or grants as a mean of tr&ing to change 7oli3ias "olicies, !uch a threat, or e3en an actual aid reduction, #ould almost certainl& not alter the go3ernments beha3iorN it #ould therefore be useless and counter-"roducti3e from their "oint of 3ie#, %he fact that #e ha3e arri3ed at such a situation illustrates ho#

dramaticall& hemis"heric relations ha3e changed, 2 fe# &ears ago, a go3ernment li5e that of E3o Morales #ould ha3e had a "rett& short life e/"ectanc&, Dashington #ould ha3e had the abilit& to economicall& strangle the countr&, as it did to @aiti in order to to""le the democraticall& elected go3ernment there Fust t#o &ears ago, %he go3ernment of
@aiti, #hich #as o3er#helmingl& de"endent on foreign aid flo#s, #as cut off from 3irtuall& all international funding from )**0 on, thus assuring its ultimate do#nfall in the 9,!,-bac5ed cou" of March )**., For 3er& "oor countries and es"eciall& those that are #ithout allies or media attention, the old rules ma& still a""l& W although e3en that is beginning to change, 2nd in man& lo#-income countries, for e/am"le in 2frica, maFor economic "olicies are still subFect to IMF a""ro3al, 7ut the Fund has lost its

influence in middle-income countries, and that includes almost all of 4atin 2merica, 2lthough it has recei3ed little
attention in most of the media, the colla"se of the IMF-led creditors cartel is b& itself "robabl& the most im"ortant change in the international financial s&stem since the end of the 7retton Doods s&stem of fi/ed e/change rates in 0?(E, %his is es"eciall& true for de3elo"ing countries,

!3 Latin American nations are no longer infl&ence' !y *2(2 t reats 5in6er/ 14 (!te"hen, former Ne# Gor5 %imes re"orter and author, L4atin 2merica is read& to def& the 9! o3er !no#den and other issues,M %he Guardian, +-)I-0E, htt"J--###,guardian,co,u5-commentisfree-)*0E-Fun-)I-ed#ard-sno#den-ecuador-def&united-states, %ashma1 No offense to Iceland, but 4atin 2merica is #here the fugiti3e lea5er Ed#ard !no#den should settle, @e
a""arentl& has the same idea, Ne#s re"orts suggest that he is in Mosco# a#aiting trans"ort to Cuba, :ene=uela, and-or Ecuador, 2 Faceboo5 "ost suggests 7oli3ia ma& ha3e granted !no#den as&lum, Nothing has been heard from Nicaragua, Peru, 7ra=il, or 2rgentina, but an& or all might also #elcome him, 2n& countr& that grants as&lum to !no#den ris5s

retaliation from the 9nited !tates, including di"lomatic isolation and costl& trade sanctions, (e"eral 'on7t seem to care2 %he fact that 4atin 2merica has become the fa3ored refuge for a 9nited !tates citi=en accused of treason and es"ionage is an e&e-"o""ing reminder of ho# full& the continent has emerged from Dashington8s shado#, $4atin 2merica is not gone, and #e #ant to 5ee" it,$ President Richard Ni/on told aides as he #as "ressing the co3ert
o"eration that brought do#n the Chilean go3ernment in 0?(E, 2 decade later, the Reagan administration #as fighting "ro/& #ars in Nicaragua, El !al3ador and Guatemala, In the 0?X*s the 9! 2rm& in3aded t#o Caribbean countries, Grenada and Panama, to de"ose leaders #ho had defied Dashington, Curing the 0??*s the 9nited !tates sought to im"ose the $Dashington

Consensus$ on 4atin 2merican go3ernments, It embodied #hat 4atin 2mericans call $neo-liberal$ "rinci"lesJ budget cuts, "ri3ati=ation, deregulation of business, and incenti3es for foreign com"anies, %his cam"aign s"ar5ed bitter resistance and ultimatel& colla"sed, In s"ite of these militar&, "olitical, and economic assaults W or "erha"s because of them W much of 4atin 2merica has become "rofoundl& dissatisfied #ith the made-in-9!2 model, !ome of the continent8s most "o"ular leaders rose to "o#er b& denouncing the $Dashington Consensus$ and "ledging to "ull their countries out of the 9nited !tates orbit, c3 C ina an' Bra6il a"e !ecome regional egemons 5 anna/ 8 (Parag, senior research fello# in the 2merican !trateg& Program of the Ne# 2merica Foundation, LDa3ing Goodb&e to @egemon&,M Ne# Gor5 %imes, 0-)(-*X,

htt"J--###,n&times,com-)**X-*0-)(-maga=ine-)(#orld-t,html6"age#antedOallPQrO*, %ashma1
%he 7ig %hree d&namic is not Fust some distant contest b& #hich 2merica ensures its abilit& to dictate affairs on the other side of the globe, Globali=ation has brought the geo"olitical mar5et"lace straight to 2mericas bac5&ard,

ra"idl& eroding the t#o-centuries-old Monroe Coctrine in the "rocess, In truth, 2merica called the shots in 4atin 2merica onl& #hen its southern neighbors lac5ed an& 3ision of their o#n, No# the& ha3e at least t#o non-2merican challengersJ China and ChA3e=, It #as !im;n 7ol 3ar #ho fought ferociousl& for !outh 2mericas
inde"endence from !"anish rule, and toda& it is the ne#l& renamed 7oli3arian Re"ublic of :ene=uela that has ins"ired an entire continent to bootstra" its #a& into the global balance of "o#er on its o#n terms, @ugo ChA3e=, the countr&s clo#nish colonel, ma& last for decades to come or ma& die b& the gun, but either #a&, he has

called 2mericas bluff and #on, changing the rules of North-!outh relations in the Destern hemis"here, @e has emboldened and ban5rolled leftist leaders across the continent, hel"ed 2rgentina and others "a& bac5 and boot out the I,M,F, and s"onsored a continent#ide bartering scheme of oil, cattle, #heat and ci3il ser3ants, reminding e3en those #ho des"ise him that the& can stand u" to the great Northern "o#er, ChA3e= stands not onl& on the ladder
of high oil "rices, @e relies on tacit su""ort from Euro"e and hardheaded intrusion from China, the former still the countr&s largest in3estor and the latter fe3erishl& re"airing :ene=uelas dila"idated oil rigs #hile building its o#n refineries, 7ut ChA3e=s challenge to the 9nited !tates is, in ins"iration, ideological, #hereas the second-#orld shift is reall& structural, E3en #ith ChA3e= still in "o#er, it is 7ra=il that is rea""earing as !outh 2mericas natural leader, 2longside India and !outh 2frica,

7ra=il has led the charge in global trade negotiations , stic5ing it to the 9,!, on its steel tariffs and to Euro"e on its
agricultural subsidies, Geogra"hicall&, 7ra=il is nearl& as close to Euro"e as to 2merica and is as 5een to build cars and air"lanes for Euro"e as it is to e/"ort so& to the 9,!, Furthermore, 7ra=il, although a lo&al 2merican all& in the cold #ar, #asted little

time before declaring a Lstrategic allianceM #ith China, %heir economies are remar5abl& com"lementar&, #ith 7ra=il shi""ing iron ore, timber, =inc, beef, mil5 and so&beans to China and China in3esting in 7ra=ils h&droelectric dams, steel mills and shoe factories, 7oth China and 7ra=ils ambitions ma& soon alter the 3er& geogra"h& of their relations, #ith 7ra=il leading an effort to construct a %rans->ceanic @igh#a& from the 2ma=on through Peru to the Pacific Coast, facilitating access for Chinese shi""ing tan5ers, 4atin 2merica has mostl& been a geo"olitical afterthought o3er the centuries, but in the )0st centur&, all resources #ill be com"eted for, and none are too far a#a&, '3 Ne# organi6ations Wyss/ 11 ('im, L4atin and Caribbean leaders challenge 9! role in regionN !ummitM, %he Miami @erald, 0)-0-00, le/is, %ashma1 >n Frida&, the leaders of EE 4atin 2merican and Caribbean countries are gathering in :ene=uela to forge a ne# organi=ation that #ill include e3er& nation in the region H e/ce"t the 9 nited !tates and Canada, !ome are ho"ing the Communit& of 4atin 2merican and Caribbean !tates, or CE42C, #ill blunt 9,!, influence in the region and re"lace the >rgani=ation of 2merican !tates, the onl& grou" thats o"ened to all
countries in the hemis"here, %he >2!, #hich "romotes democrac& and de3elo"ment in the region, has been accused b& some nations of being a 9,!, mouth"iece, %he ne# bod& comes to life as 4atin 2merica is fle/ing its muscles on the

#orld stage and the region is e/"ected to see economic gro#th of almost I "ercent this &ear on the bac5 of surging commodit& "rices, It also comes amid hand-#ringing o3er #aning 9,!, influence in the region, :ene=uelan President @ugo ChA3e= H the e3ents host and "romoter H has called the CE42C a LhistoricM organi=ation that #ill bring the region closer together as it sha5es off the 9nited !tates im"erialist "retensions, %he e3ent culminates !aturda& #ith
the signing of the Caracas Ceclaration that formall& launches the bloc, Chile #ill head the organi=ation in its first &ear, follo#ed b& Cuba in )*0E, %he administration is not #orried that the organi=ation #ill someda& re"lace the >2!, said Can Restre"o, President 7arac5 >bamas senior ad3isor on 4atin 2merica, L%he notion that &ou can create an organi=ation sim"l& to be anti-2merican is not 3iable o3er a sustained "eriod of time, Restre"o told %he Miami @erald on %hursda&, Ces"ite the flailing 9,!, econom&, its still the hemis"heres "o#erhouse and the "rinci"al destination for most 4atin 2merican e/"orts, including :ene=uelas, 2nd unless the CE42C recei3es solid financial bac5ing, such as the >2! recei3es from the 9nited !tates, its unli5el& to flourish, said Cennis 'ett, the former 9,!, ambassador to Peru and a "rofessor at Penn !tate 9ni3ersit&, L%his organi=ation #ill "robabl& last as long as ChA3e= is #illing to under#rite it,M 'ett said, Land Im not sure ho# much longer he can do that,M Dhile the CE42C is a regional effort, its ChA3e=s bab&, >riginall& scheduled for 'ul&, the formation of the CE42C #as dela&ed as ChA3e= tra3eled to Cuba to undergo treatment for an undisclosed form of cancer, @e sa&s that hes cured and has ste""ed u" his "ublic a""earances, but that hasnt sto""ed re"orts that his condition is far more serious than he lets on, In that sense, the CE42C mar5s ChA3e=s return to the #orld stage as he e&es a tight "residential race in >ctober, Dhile the full im"act of the organi=ation #ont be 5no#n for &ears, some #orr& that it could become a tool for go3ernments that ha3e bristled under international criticism, Ecuador President Rafael Correa is "ro"osing the creation of a human rights 3enue #ithin the CE42C that #ould su""lant the >2!s influential Inter-2merican Commission on @uman Rights, LIts not "ossible that 4atin 2merican conflicts ha3e to be dealt #ith in

Dashington, #here the Inter-2merican Commission on @uman Rights is, #hen e3en 9nited !tates doesnt recogni=e the commission,M he said in a statement, L!ooner rather than later Zthe CE42CR should re"lace the >2!, #hich
has historicall& been distorted,M Dhile its true that the 9nited !tates has ignored commission rulings H most notabl& to close the GuantAnamo detention facilit& H the bod& has been a "o#erful 3oice in the hemis"here, %he commission and the >2!s Inter2merican Court Lha3e been essential in "rotecting human rights and fundamental freedoms in the region,M said 'ose Miguel :i3anco, the director of the 2mericas di3ision of @uman Rights Datch, Correas call for an alternati3e forum comes after he has effecti3el& mu==led dissent at home b& consolidating "o#er and attac5ing the "ress, :i3anco said, %he >2! recentl& held a s"ecial session to loo5 at deteriorating "ress freedoms in Ecuador, LNo# Correa feels li5e its time to ta5e it a ste" further and o"enl& "ro"ose to restructure the international mechanisms #e ha3e to "romote and "rotect human rights,M :i3anco said, L%he more serious and democratic go3ernments that are "artici"ating in this meeting should not echo this t&"e of initiati3e,M %he >2! did not res"ond to inter3ie# reBuests, but in a "ress release said it loo5ed for#ard to coo"erating #ith the CE42C, 'ust #hat 5ind of organi=ation the CE42C #ill become remains to be seen, Dhile moderate, free-mar5et nations such as 7ra=il, Chile and Peru ha3e the economic "o#er to ma5e the CE42C 3iable, its countries li5e :ene=uela, Ecuador and 7oli3ia that ha3e been some of its biggest bac5ers, LIf &ou loo5 at #ho is reall& "ushing the organi=ation, its countries that dont #ant the 9nited !tates to ha3e an& dominant 5ind of role in the region, but eBuall&, and more im"ortantl&, the& dont li5e to be critici=ed b& international organi=ations,M said !usan Purcell, the director of the Center for @emis"heric Polic& at the 9ni3ersit& of Miami, L%his is a #a& of setting u" an alternati3e #orld #here the& ha3e more control o3er #ho can sa& #hat about them,M %he initiati3e comes as some see signs of #aning 9,!, influence in the region, LDithout a doubt, this has not been a #onderful time for 9,!,-4atin 2merican

relations,M said !all& !helton-Colb&, the former Ce"ut& 2ssistant !ecretar& of !tate for 4atin 2merica, a former ambassador in the Caribbean and a di"lomat in residence at %he 2merican 9ni3ersit&, L %he 9,!, is focused li5e a laser beam on the Middle East, !outh 2sia and China for reasons of national securit&,M e3 9ecor' *2(2 tra'e 'eficits Weis!rot/ 14 (Mar5, director of the Centre for Economic and Polic& Research, L4atin 2mericaJ %he End of an Era,M International 'ournal of @ealth !er3ices, :olume E+, Issue ., %ashma1 %here are t#o other im"ortant economic changes that #ill reinforce 4atin 2mericas drift a#a& from the 9nited !tates in the coming &ears, >ne is that the 9nited !tates #ill no longer "ro3ide a ra"idl& gro#ing mar5et for the regions e/"orts, as it has in the "ast, %he reason is that the 9 nited !tates is running a record trade deficit, no# more than + "ercent of GCP, that almost all economists recogni=e must adFust o3er the ne/t decade, %he 9nited !tates does not ha3e to balance its trade, but the deficit must fall to a le3el that allo#s the 9,!, foreign debt to stabili=e , rather than gro#ing at an e/"losi3e rate, If the 9,!, trade
deficit #ere to remain at its current le3el, in 0X &ears the 9,!, foreign debt #ould e/ceed the 3alue of our entire stoc5 mar5et, %his is not going to ha""enN instead, the dollar #ill fall and the deficit #ill be reduced, 7ut one conseBuence of

this adFustment is that the 9,!, mar5et for im"orts, measured in non-dollar currencies, #ill barel& gro# or "ossibl& e3en decline, %his means that 4atin 2merican countries ho"ing to e/"and their e/"orts to the 9,!, in the near future #ill mainl& ha3e to dis"lace other e/"orters, #hich #ill be 3er& difficult, !o the 9nited !tates does not ha3e so much to offer in its "ro"osed bilateral trade agreements, >n the other
hand, it is demanding concessions that are economicall& costl&, as in the areas of "atented medicines, #here Dashington insists on e3en stronger "rotectionism than is afforded b& the Dorld %rade >rgani=ationN and "oliticall& costl&, as in agriculture, #here the demands for o"ening u" to subsidi=ed e/"orts from the 9,!, ha3e s"ar5ed considerable "olitical o""osition in most countries in the region, 2t the same time, Fust as the gro#th of the 9,!, im"ort mar5et #ill be slo#ing to a standstill,

another mar5et to #hich 4atin 2merican countries can e/"ort is e/"ected to gro# b& about [0 trillion Euros o3er the ne/t decadeJ China, %his #ill reinforce the decline in the 9nited !tates relati3e economic im"ortance to 4atin 2merica, Perha"s e3en more im"ortantl&, China has the "otential to be an enormous alternati3e source of financing for in3estment in 4atin 2merica, !o far the Chinese ha3e "roceeded relati3el& slo#l&N but the& ha3e discussed "lans for [)* billion #orth of in3estment in 2rgentina, for e/am"le, including maFor in3estments in railroads and infrastructure, %he Chinese go3ernment no# holds more
than [X** billion in foreign e/change reser3es, Most of this mone& is sitting in 9,!, treasur& bonds, #here the go3ernment has lost tens of billions of dollars in the last fe# &ears W both from currenc& changes, as the dollar has fallen against other currencies, and ca"ital losses, as 9,!, long-term rates ha3e risen, %hese trends are li5el& to continue, 9ntil no#, the Chinese ha3e held these bonds as "art of their o3erall economic strateg&, #hich "resumabl& has included 5ee"ing 9,!, long-term rates lo# so as to su""ort the economic reco3er& here (since )**01 and therefore increase demand for their e/"orts, 7ut this strateg& #ill not "ersist indefinitel&, 2s it stands no#, the Chinese could in3est hundreds of billions of dollars in 4atin 2merica, get a =ero return on their in3estment, and still come out ahead as com"ared to their "resent strateg& of holding 9,!, treasuries, In realit& the& #ould most li5el& get a "ositi3e return, %he Chinese are alread& interested and in3esting in energ& and e/tracti3e industries to secure su""lies of these materials for their booming econom&, 7ut as an emerging economic su"er"o#er, the& ma& also come to see it as "art

of their strategic interest to ha3e closer "olitical and economic ties #ith 4atin 2merica, %his #ould be
es"eciall& true if current tensions bet#een the 9nited !tates and China get #orse, but it is li5el& to ha""en in an& case,

f3 Er&ption of socialism 9+/ 0 (%he Real %ruth, cites Miguel %in5er-!alas, "rofessor of 4atin 2merican histor& at Pomona College, and cites Ca3id Roth5o"f, a former Commerce Ce"artment official in the Clinton administration, L4atin 2merica 4oo5s East Dhere Coes %his 4ea3e the 9nited !tates6,M I-0*-*?, htt"J--realtruth,org-articles-*?*I*.-**.-americas,html, %ashma1 !earching for 4i5e-minded Partners In addition to increasing economic ties, man& 4atin 2merican countries relate to eastern countries #ho share the same "olitical goals, %his includes the de3elo"ment of a socialist state, 2 )**X Gallu" "oll re3ealed that of 0? countries "olled in 4atin 2merica, all but Me/ico "rimaril& consider themsel3es socialists, rather than ca"italists, Professor %in5er-!alas said there has been a shift of mentalit& in 2mericas southern neighbors, L%he region has undergone a "olitical transformation be&ond 9! control that #as unimaginable a generation ago, It began #ith the election of
:ene=uelas leftist-"o"ulist (and anti-gringo1 President @ugo ChA3e= in 0??X, and has culminated #ith the 3ictor& in March of Mauricio Funes, El !al3adors first leftist "residentM (Christian !cience Monitor1, China and Russia ha3e strongl&

ad3ocated for increased reform of the international economic s&stem and regulation of financial mar5ets, Further, China confirmed its "osition in 'anuar& as a member of the Inter-2merican Ce3elo"ment 7an5, #hich hel"s
finance long-term "roFects in the region, President @ugo ChA3e= stated that :ene=uela is rel&ing on China to get them through this economic crisis, L^%his is ho# the balance of "o#er shifts Buietl& during times of crisis, said Ca3id

Roth5o"f, a former Commerce Ce"artment official in the Clinton administration, ^%he loans are an e/am"le of the chec5boo5 "o#er in the #orld mo3ing to ne# "laces, #ith the Chinese becoming more acti3eM (%he Ne# Gor5 %imes1, LCurrentl&, China is the biggest motor dri3ing the #orld amidst this crisis of international ca"italism ,M Mr, ChA3e= said,
before meeting #ith @u 'intao, Chinas "resident and Communist Part& leader, 4ater, addressing the "resident, he said, LNo one can be ignorant that the center of gra3it& of the #orld has mo3ed to 7eiFing M (2ssociated Press1, Curing his recent

%his realignment is at the e/"ense of ca"italism, #ith man& nations and their leaders clamoring for a more stable economic s&stem and form of go3ernance, In times of great political &p ea"al an' economic &ncertainty/ some !elie"e t e ans#er is socialism2
t#o-da& tri" to China, Mr, ChA3e= said the t#o countries, along #ith others, #ere #or5ing to create La ne# #orld order,M

*ns&staina!le Lea'ers ip Ineffecti"e ,NC

*2(2 infl&ence is 'oome' Latin American nations are finally teaming &p an' reacting to 'eca'es of *2(2 neoli!eralism %&nc.ton/ : (!tuart, international editor of Green 4eft Dee5l& and a member of the 2ustralian !ocialist 2lliance national e/ecuti3e, L4atin 2merica in re3olt J Continent defies 9!2,M .-)(-*I, %ashma1 For o3er t#o decades the 9! has forced neoliberalism H and its accom"an&ing "o3ert& and des"air H do#n %hird Dorld throats in order to ma5e the #orld better for 9! business, %o man&, the
s"reading 9! economic em"ire, bac5ed b& the "oint of a gun and a loan, has seemed unassailable, 7ut no#, unable to defeat a ragtag bunch of IraBi militias, and ra"idl& losing allies in 4atin 2merica, the em"ire is not loo5ing so strong, 2s &et another neoliberal, "ro-9! go3ernment falls in Latin

America, Resistance8s !tuart Munc5ton loo5s at the continent

that mig t 'efeat *ncle (am2 'anuar& 0, )**I #as a significant date H not for #hat ha""ened, but for #hat didn8t, >n that da&, the Free %rade 2rea of the 2mericas #as su""osed to be signed, %he F%22 #as one of Dashington8s "et "roFects H it #as a maFor ste" in remo3ing barriers against 9! cor"orate "lunder in 4atin 2merica, 7ut b& late )**., the F%22 negotiations had been sus"ended, #ith go3ernments in :ene=uela, 7ra=il, 2rgentina, 7oli3ia and 9rugua& refusing to negotiate their "eo"le8s future a#a&, %he failure of the F%22 negotiations #as Fust another indication of ho# on the nose Dashington is in the continent, 2 more dramatic indication came on 2"ril )0, as embattled Ecuadorian President 4uis Gutierre= #as forced from office b& a Congress faced #ith mass "rotests demanding #ides"read "olitical change, 2lthough elected on an anti-neoliberal "latform, Gutierre= abandoned his "romises in an attem"t to 5ee" Dashington ha""&, Gutierre= is the latest on a long list of neoliberal 4atin 2merican "oliticians thro#n out of office H in elections, or b& "o"ular re3olt, In the last fi3e &ears, u"risings ha3e o3erthro#n go3ernments in Ecuador, Peru, 2rgentina and 7oli3ia, In 7ra=il, Chile, :ene=uela, Ecuador and 9rugua&, go3ernments ha3e been elected on anti-neoliberal "latforms in the last se3en &ears, 4eft-#ing forces are considered a serious chance in u"coming "residential elections in Me/ico and Nicaragua, In 7oli3ia, e3en if President Carlos Mesa, himself first brought to "o#er in an u"surge of "rotest, manages to a3oid being o3erthro#n before elections are due in )**(, he loo5s to be defeated b& radical Mo3ement for !ocialism leader E3o Morales, In Colombia, the 9!-bac5ed go3ernment has been unable to destro& a left-#ing insurgenc&, des"ite staggering amounts of militar& aid from Dashington, 7ehind this re3olt is a continent that no longer bu&s the m&th of a neoliberal-led dri3e out of "o3ert& and ineBualit&, !ince the 0?X*s, Dashington, and its tame international financial institutions li5e the Dorld

7an5 and the International Monetar& Fund, "ushed $free trade$ , "ri3atisations and redirecting funds to debt re"a&ment from basic ser3ices as a #a& to "ros"erit&, 7& o"ening u" their economies to $com"etition$ and the $efficienc&$ of mar5et forces, 4atin 2merican countries #ere "romised significant economic gro#th that #ould reduce "o3ert&, In fact, #hat ha""ened #as a significant increase in the hold o3er the economies of 4atin 2merica b& multinationals, es"eciall& 9! cor"orations, 7et#een 0??* and )**) multinational cor"orations acBuired .*** ban5s,
telecommunications, trans"ort, "etrol and mining interests in 4atin 2merica, Dilliam I, Robinson, in an article entitled $!torm clouds o3er 4atin 2merica$ "ublished in the Cecember )**) Focus on %rade, #rote that, after a decade of neoliberalism

in 2rgentina, #hich culminated in an economic colla"se in Cecember )**0, the number of "eo"le li3ing in "o3ert& increased from one to 0. million, In a statement to the 9! Congress @ouse 2rmed !er3ice Committee on
March I, General 7ant= Craddoc5, e/"laining the reason for 4atin 2merica8s #ides"read $"olitical instabilit&$, saidJ $%he free mar5et reforms and "ri3atisation of the 0??*s ha3e not deli3ered on the "romise of "ros"erit& for 4atin 2merica,,, %he richest one tenth of the "o"ulation of 4atin 2merica and the Caribbean earn .X_ of the total income, #hile the "oorest tenth earn onl& 0,+_ ,,, 9rugua& has the least economic dis"arit& of 4atin 2merican and Caribbean countries, but its uneBual income distribution is still far #orse than the most uneBual countr& in Eastern Euro"e and the industriali=ed countries,$ %his increased "o3ert& has brought #ith it a

dee" discrediting of the #hole neoliberal "roFect, 2nd anger against those #ho 5ee" im"lementing the "ain has led to huge mobilisations, street "rotests, factor& occu"ations and militant mo3ements, #hich in turn ha3e forced man& go3ernments to retreat on neoliberal "olic& in order to maintain control, In 2rgentina, Nestor Kirchner #as elected "resident in )**E, after more than a &ear of crisis, during #hich
the countr& #ent through four "residents in less than a #ee5, Kirchner #as elected #ith Fust o3er )*_ in )**E, in a situation #here old-st&le "olitics #as too discredited to 5ee" control, but the "o"ular mo3ements #ere not strong enough to ta5e "o#er, Kirchner, des"ite emerging from one of the traditional "arties of go3ernment, has stood u" to the international financial institutions, he has managed to renegotiate 2rgentina8s cri""ling foreign debt do#n, In a statement on 2"ril I, the Council for @emis"heric 2ffairs, a Dashington-based thin5-tan5, "ointed out that both the 9! and the IMF ha3e not a""lied their usual "ressure on 2rgentina to adhere to strict debt re"a&ments H no doubt recognising that an& go3ernment that attem"ted to continue #ith the same "olicies as before the )**0 u"rising #ould not last 3er& long, @o#e3er, the most significant brea5through for the "oor maForit& searching for an alternati3e to cor"orate domination has come in :ene=uela, !ince the 0??X election of :ene=uelan President @ugo Cha3e=, the go3ernment has challenged 9! im"erialism and its local allies, Comesticall&, :ene=uela8s e/tensi3e oil #ealth is being used to fund ambitious social "rograms to im"ro3e the li3es of the maForit& #ho li3e in "o3ert&, >ne of the most significant gains has been the mass literac& "rogram, #hich has succeeded in eradicating illiterac& according to 9nited Nations standards, 2n attem"ted )**) cou" against Cha3e=, bac5ed b& the 9!, #as defeated b& mass mobilisation, a "art of the organisation of #or5ing

"eo"le that characterises the countr&8s 7oli3arian re3olution, >ne of the biggest reasons Cha3e=8s 7oli3arian re3olution is a threat to the 9! is because he is see5ing to unite 4atin 2merican countries, economicall& and "oliticall&, enabling a continent-#ide fight bac5 against 9! economic t&rann&, Cha3e= has been the most outs"o5en critic of the F%22, and his go3ernment has #or5ed o3ertime to "romote an alternati3e H the 7oli3arian 2lternati3e for the 2mericas (24721, based on economic coo"eration and integration amongst 4atin 2merican nations, :ene=uela has "rioritised trade agreements #ith other 4atin 2merican nations #ith the aim of creating an alternati3e bloc to that "romoted b& the 9!, %his includes t#o significant "roFects H Petrosur and %elesur, )etros&r

is a "ro"osed 4atin 2merica-#ide "etroleum com"an&, #hich #ould unite the state-run oil industries of different go3ernments to create an economic #eapon t at can c allenge *( egemony2 %elesur is the :ene=uelan-"romoted
4atin 2merica-#ide %: channel that aims to "ro3ide ne#s from the "ers"ecti3e of the 4atin 2merican "eo"le, %he onl& continent#ide %: channel at the moment is CNN In !"anish, #hich reflects the biases and interests of the 9!, 2rgentina, 7ra=il and the ne#l& elected go3ernment in 9rugua& are bac5ing both "roFects, Cha3e= has also refused to sign an& fresh agreements #ith the IMF, denouncing them as the $road to hell$, %his #illingness to stand u" to Dashington has "ut enormous "ressure on other nations not to mee5l& submit to #hate3er Dashington insists, or else stand e/"osed in front of their o#n "eo"le, %his has naturall& "ut :ene=uela in Dashington8s target sights, %he 9! is es"eciall& u"set #ith the "olitical and economic ties :ene=uela maintains #ith socialist Cuba, !ince the 0?I? Cuban re3olution, the 9! has sought to o3erthro# H at 3arious times b& in3asion, assassination, "ro"aganda bombardment and economic terrorism H the Cuban go3ernment led b& Fidel Castro, %he 9! understands that Cuba is a 5e& threatJ not because it has oil or #ea"ons, but because its free education and health care, its #orld class science and research and de3elo"ment H all are li3ing "roof that it is "ossible for %hird Dorld "eo"le to li3e in less than des"erate "o3ert&, and to li3e #ith dignit&, Perha"s more im"ortantl&, Cuba "ro3ides an e/am"le of "eo"le ta5ing their destin& into their o#n hands, and not #aiting on "oliticians, Cuba is a beacon of ho"e for the masses of 4atin 2merica, :ene=uela8s staunch su""ort of re3olutionar& Cuba is hel"ing ease Cuba8s isolation, 2nd, li5e Cuba, :ene=uela is increasingl& seen as "roof that there is an alternati3e to neoliberal miser&, %he resulting "o"ularit& of the 7oli3arian re3olution throughout 4atin 2merica has hel"ed "rotect Cha3e= from Dashington8s #rath, Ces"ite numerous attem"ts, Dashington has been unable to either o3erthro# or isolate the Cha3e= go3ernment, %he internal o""osition to Cha3e= is no# discredited, and the 9!, #hich im"orts 0I_ of its oil from :ene=uela, cannot cut economic ties, Dashington has mo3ed this &ear instead to tr& to "ressure other nations in the region to di"lomaticall&

isolate :ene=uela, %his cam"aign has failed dismall& H not one countr& has Foined the "ublic condemnations, In recent months, :ene=uela has signed far-reaching economic agreements #ith 2rgentina, 7ra=il and
9rugua&, %he 7ra=ilian agreement includes selling :ene=uela militar& eBui"ment, at the same time as Dashington is attac5ing #hat it calls :ene=uela8s $arms race$, In Cecember, in a "lot almost certainl& in3ol3ing the 9!, Colombia 5idna""ed, from #ithin :ene=uela, a leader of the Re3olutionar& 2rmed Forces of Colombia, #hich has been #aging a decades-long guerrilla #ar against the right-#ing Colombian regime, from #ithin :ene=uela, >utraged b& the attac5 on its so3ereignt&, :ene=uela recalled its ambassador and sus"ended economic ties, Dashington "rom"tl& bac5ed Colombia, and demanded other 2merican nations $di"lomaticall& isolate$ :ene=uela, Not onl& did no other countr& res"ond, but Colombia, sha5en b& the "otential loss of lucrati3e business deals #ith :ene=uela, successfull& as5ed the Cuban go3ernment to mediate tal5s to resol3e the crisis, %hen, on 2"ril 00, the >rganisation of 2merican !tates, #hich includes all countries in the hemis"here e/ce"t Cuba, s"lit

do#n the middle #ith a tied 3ote in the election for a ne# >2! secretar& general, %he 9! "ro3ed unable to "ressure enough nations to #in outright su""ort for the candidate it is bac5ing, Me/ican foreign minister 4uis Ernesto Cerbe=,
%he 9! is far from out for the count in 4atin 2merica, Dhile mo3ements in se3eral countries are threatening to bloc5ade, rall& or occu"& until there is change, their strength and de3elo"ment 3aries, @o#e3er, the concessions forced from the 4atin

2merican "eo"le, the increased "ressure on 4atin 2merican go3ernments to ta5e at least some inde"endent stands from Dashington, and the su""ort enFo&ed b& the de3elo"ing :ene=uelan re3olution are all signs that the 9! can no longer force its #ill on 4atin 2merica, 2nd e"ery time people organise to get rid of a 9! collaborator, or !eat !ac. neoli!eral policy ; yo& .no# t at ot ers on the continent are #atc ing an' learning2 + e #i'esprea' s ift to#ar' leftist go"ernments 'emonstrates all-o&t resistance to *2(2 egemony Latin American nations are t&rning to ot er nations for s&pport <alencia/ 11 (Robert, C>@2 Research Fello#, L2fter 7in 4adens Cemise, 2re 9,!,-4atin 2merican Relations 2t 7a& 2gain6,M Council on @emis"heric 2ffairs, I-)*-00, htt"J--###,coha,org-after-bin-ladens-demise-are-u-s-latin-american-relations-at-ba&-again-, %ashma1 >f course, Dashingtons lac5 of attention to#ard the region is hardl& a no3elt&, %he #ar on terror arguabl& has become the administrations main foreign "olic& focus in the last ten &ears, as 4atin 2merican affairs #ere s&stematicall& o3erloo5ed, In )**0, former Me/ican President :icente Fo/ and
former 2merican President George D, 7ush finall& met to tac5le illegal immigration and o"en their Foint borders, 7ut soon after the !e"tember 00 attac5s in Dashington, C,C, and Ne# Gor5 Cit&, a (**-mile fence across the 9,!,-Me/ico border #as erected, s"ar5ing criticism from 4atinos both in the 9nited !tates and south of the Rio Grande,Z0R %he fences creation #as based on the misconce"tion that the terrorists #ho "er"etrated the ?-00 attac5s illegall& crossed 9,!, borders, #hen, for the most "art, the& came as legal residents, 2s the 9nited !tates inter3entions in IraB and 2fghanistan escalated into blood& #ars,

4atin 2merican countries such as :ene=uela, Ecuador, @onduras, and 7ra=il, began to steer a#a& from 9,!, influence b& s#itching to leftist, or at least left-leaning, go3ernments, In fact, most of these countries became 3ociferous o""onents of #hat the& deemed LGan5ee Im"erialism,M :ene=uelan President @ugo ChA3e=,
an unrelenting critic of 7ushs "olicies, ser3ed as a main ad3ocate for the o""osition, %his leftist shift consolidated the rise of regional "o#erhouse 7ra=il and the subseBuent creation of 9N2!9R (9nion of !outh 2merican Nations1 and 2472 (the 7oli3arian 2lliance for the 2mericas1, Moreo3er, other international "la&ers li5e Iran, Russia, and China began to

#ield increasing influence in 4atin 2merica b& #a& of di"lomac& and infrastructure de3elo"ment, In reali=ing its sli""ing stronghold in 4atin 2merica, former President 7ush finall& too5 the time to 3isit se3eral
4atin 2merican countries during the last &ear of his "residenc&, onl& to disco3er that it #as too late to con3ince the regions leaders that the& #ere not being forgotten,

*2(2 egemony is !eing re=ecte' in e"ery area of t e #orl'2 Br6e6ins.i > (]bignie# 7r=e=ins5i -- formerl& President Carters National !ecurit& 2d3isor, counselor and trustee at the Center for !trategic and International !tudies and "rofessor of 2merican foreign "olic& at the !chool of 2d3anced International !tudies ` 'ohns @o"5ins 9ni3ersit& L!econd ChanceM " 0(+-(1 !M

%he near-term threat of terrorism does not remotel& a""roach that le3el, Get #hen confronted b& the "ossibilit& of "ainful but essentiall& s"oradic acts of terrorism, 7ush made it a "oint to designate himself a $#artime$ "resident, >fficial sto5ing of "ublic an/iet& s"a#ned a huge arra& of terror $e/"erts$ conFuring a"ocal&"tic "redictions, %he mass media "lunged into a com"etition in "o"ulari=ing almost on a dail& basis their 3arious horror scenarios, 2s a result a confident national "s&che is being transformed into a nation dri3en b& fear, In its "resent garrison-state mentalit&, 2merica ris5s becoming a huge gated

communit&, self-isolate' from t e #orl', %he nation8s tradition of ci3il rights and its ca"acit& to "roFect itself #orld#ide as an a""ealing and self-confident democrac& are diminished, 2s Global 4eader III, George D, 7ush misunderstood the historical moment, and in Fust fi3e &ears dangerousl& undermined 2merica8s geo"olitical "osition , In see5ing to "ursue a"olic& based on the
delusion that $#e are an em"ire no#, and#hen #e act, #e create our o#n realit&,$ 7ush endangered 2merica, Euro"e is no# increasingl& alienated, Russia and China are both more asserti3e and more in ste", 2sia is turning a#a& and organi=ing itself #hile 'a"an is Buietl& considering ho# to ma5e itself more secure, 4atin 2merican democrac& is becoming "o"ulist

and anti-2merican, %he Middle East is fragmenting and on the brin5 of e/"losion, %he #orld of Islam is inflamed b& rising religious "assion and anti-im"erialist nationalisms, %hroughout the #orld, "ublic o"inion "olls sho# that 9,!, "olic& is #idel& feare' an' e"en 'espise', Lea'ers ip is &ni1&ely lo# in Latin America Ni!lett 0 (Robin Niblett -- PhC #ith e/"ertise 9K foreign "olic&, 9! foreign "olic&, and economic securit& -- Cirector of the Chatham @ouse -- %he Ro&al Institute of Internatoinal 2ffairs in the 9nited King5dom ###,chathamhouse,org-sites-default-files-"ublic-Research-2mericas-r*)*?usQrole,"df1 !M In 4atin 2merica, the >bama administration faces much more asserti3e go3ernments see5ing a ne# relationshi" #ith the de3elo"ed #orld, and es"eciall& #ith the 9nited !tates,)+ %he regions economic fate is no longer determined b& its geogra"hic "ro/imit& to the 9!J 4atin 2merican economies no# sell their commodities and ser3ices to and recei3e in#ard in3estment from a gro#ing arra& of countries, of #hich China is the most im"ortant, %his has hel"ed them achie3e an unusuall& "rolonged "eriod of fast gro#th since )**E, #ith lo# inflation and, for man&, a balance of-"a&ments sur"lus, %he le3erage enFo&ed "re3iousl& in 4atin 2merica b& the 9!-dominated IMF and Dorld 7an5 has declined, #hile 9! influence o3er the >rgani=ation of 2merican !tates (>2!1, #hich had been a creature of the 9nited !tates during the Cold Dar, has been com"letel& eroded, %oda&, leaders in the region, from 7ra=ils 4ula da !il3a to :ene=uelas @ugo ChA3e=, are Fointl& committed to designing a ne# de3elo"ment ban5 for 4atin 2merica, a "roFect for "olitical integration (designed to re"lace the >2!1 and a "lan for regional defence, #hich is intended to re"lace the 0?.( Inter-2merican %reat& of Reci"rocal 2ssistance , E3en if se3eral of 4atin 2mericas numerous leaders on the left fall 3ictim to the current economic crisis, it is highl& unli5el& that their successors #ill #ant to return to the status Buo ante of 9! regional leadershi", *( international lea'ers ip as 'iminis e' !eca&se of policies in Latin America

Ni!lett 0 (Robin Niblett -- PhC #ith e/"ertise 9K foreign "olic&, 9! foreign "olic&, and economic securit& -- Cirector of the Chatham @ouse -- %he Ro&al Institute of Internatoinal 2ffairs in the 9nited King5dom ###,chathamhouse,org-sites-default-files-"ublic-Research-2mericas-r*)*?usQrole,"df1 !M 7arac5 >bama has ta5en on the 9! "residenc& at a time #hen man& of the "illars of 2mericas international leadershi" ha3e been #ea5ened, For e/am"leJ %he chaos of the 9! financial colla"se has gi3en
credibilit& to those #ho ha3e long critici=ed the ^Dashington Consensus and its em"hasis on deregulation and mar5et liberalism as a model for national economic reform, It #ill be difficult to reassert 9! leadershi" on international financial and economic issues in this conte/t, Follo#ing the in3asion of IraB, the 9nited !tates has become directl& entangled in the instabilit& of the Middle East, rather than ser3ing as an e/ternal contributor to its securit&, %his is constraining its room for di"lomatic leadershi" in the region,

%he s"read of democrac& that 9! go3ernments ha3e cham"ioned in recent decades has stalled and has e3en shifted into re3erse in certain "arts of the #orld, calling into Buestion one of the lodestars of 2mericas international leadershi", 2mericas "osition of "o#er relati3e to other 5e& international

actors such as China and the Euro"ean 9nion is changing, as their leaders see5 to define for themsel3es the "arameters of future international coo"eration, Ne# regional institutions that e/clude the 9nited !tates are on the rise from !outheast 2sia to 4atin 2merica and cannot no# be ignored, 2 global "olitical a#a5ening, fed largel& b& the s"read of the internet and satellite communications, is constraining the remit of national go3ernments across the #orld, including their abilit& to follo# a 9! lead #here the& might #ant to, Increasingl&, the ne# global challenges to international securit&

in areas ranging from climate change and energ& securit& to terrorism, "o3ert& and global health demand solutions #here leadershi" b& one countr& #ould be counter-"roducti3e, 9etrenc ing in Latin America no# Cran'all ,?11 (Russell Crandall W associate "rofessor of International Politics at Ca3ison College -- Princi"al Cirector for the Destern @emis"here at the 9,!, Ce"artment of Cefense in )**? and Cirector for 2ndean 2ffairs at the National !ecurit& Council in )*0*-00, L%he Post2merican @emis"here !ubtitleJ Po#er and Politics in an 2utonomous 4atin 2mericaM, Foreign 2ffairs, Ma&-'une, 4e/is1 !M Get o3er the "ast decade or so, the 9nited !tates8 #illingness and abilit& to e/ert control in the region ha3e 'iminis e'2 %his has occurred in "art because more im"ortant issues, including the #ars in 2fghanistan and IraB, ha3e forced 4atin 2merica do#n the "olic&ma5ing food chain , 7ut there is also the indis"utable realit& that the region itself is no# more confident acting on its o#n , For the most "art, this #as ine3itable, gi3en the end of e/ternal and local communist challenges and the shift to an increasingl& multilateral #orld that had room for ne# "o#ers, 4atin 2merica8s greater autonom& is both a ca&se an' a res&lt of 'ecrease' *2(2 infl&ence2

*ns&staina!le C ina ,NC

C ina is rapi'ly increasing infl&ence in t e region at t e e@pense of t e *2(2 --statistics an' ne# partners ips pro"e 9+/ 0 (%he Real %ruth, L4atin 2merica 4oo5s East Dhere Coes %his 4ea3e the 9nited !tates6,M I-0*-*?, htt"J--realtruth,org-articles-*?*I*.-**.-americas,html, %ashma1 4oo5ing for Ne# Economic Partners Dee5s before the !ummit of the 2mericas, @ugo ChA3e= attem"ted to strengthen economic and "olitical ties #ith se3eral 2sian countries b& 3isiting China, Iran and 'a"an, In
Februar&, Chinas :ice President ai 'in"ing 3isited Me/ico, 'amaica, Colombia, :ene=uela and 7ra=il to see5 stronger ties #ith the fi3e countries, %he follo#ing #ee5, :ice Premier @ui 4iang&u sto""ed in 2rgentina, Ecuador, 7arbados and the 7ahamas to offer Chinese aid to those nations, :isits to the Caribbean and 4atin 2merica b& 9,!, delegations seem meager in com"arison, %hus far, three 9,!, leadersHthe secretar& of state, attorne& general and head of homeland securit&Hha3e made tri"s to Me/ico, and President 7arac5 >bama 3isited #ith Me/ican President Feli"e Calder;n on his #a& to the !ummit of the 2mericas in %rinidad and %obago, In addition, :ice President 'oe 7iden met #ith leaders in Chile and Costa Rica, 2lthough the 9nited !tates is still 4atin 2mericas largest trading "artner, 9,!, trade #ith 4atin 2merica fell to [EI,E billion in Februar& )**?Ha )X,?

"ercent dro" from the same month last &ear, L%he falling trade is mainl& due to #ea5 demand in the 9nited !tates,
although the leading trade "artners in 4atin 2merica are also bu&ing fe#er "roducts from 9,!, com"aniesM (4atin 7usiness Chronicle1, 2s Dashington struggles to contain its o#n financial troubles, Caribbean and 4atin

2merican nations are loo5ing east#ard, #ith delegates from China and Russia ma5ing regular 3isits to these nations to offer economic assistance and increase bilateral trade tal5s , including militar& de3elo"ment, Chinas Emergence as a Global %rade Force %he Ne# Gor5 %imes re"orted that in light of a""arent 9,!, disengagement and increasing economic uncertaint&, China offered to "ro3ide the struggling region #ith necessar& financial assistance, In contrast to ra"idl& diminishing trade #ith the 9nited !tates, 7loomberg re"orted that Chinese Central 7an5 Go3ernor aiaochuan ]hou said Chinas trade #ith 4atin 2merica has gro#n from [0I billion in )**0 to [0.* billion in )**X, LIn recent #ee5s, China has been negotiating deals to double a
de3elo"ment fund in :ene=uela to [0) billion, lend Ecuador at least [0 billion to build a h&droelectric "lant, "ro3ide 2rgentina #ith access to more than [0* billion in Chinese currenc& and lend 7ra=ils national oil com"an& [0* billion, %he deals largel& focus on China loc5ing in natural resources li5e oil for &ears to comeM (%he Ne# Gor5 %imes1, 2 re"ort "ublished b& the International Committee of the Fourth International said that :ene=uela is angling to increase its e/"ort ratio to China, LDhile :ene=uela no# e/"orts +* "ercent of its oil to the 9!, the agreements bet#een 7eiFing and Caracas could change that, :ene=uela aims to tri"le its e/"orts to China to one million barrels a da& b& )*0E, (%oda&, the 9! consumes 0,I million barrels a da& of :ene=uelan oil,1M In a )**X multibillion-dollar deal, Chinas Chinalco Cor"oration "urchased the Peru3ian

%oromocho Mountain, securing a 3irtual mono"ol& on co""er "roduction in Peru, In the "ast, this t&"e of deal #ould li5el& ha3e been made #ith an 2merican cor"oration, 7ut not no#, %his transaction sho#s the diminishing influence of the 9nited !tates in its o#n hemis"hereHand Chinas gro#ing need for natural resources and the great lengths to #hich it #ill go to get them, 2s the Christian
!cience Monitor stated, L%he 9,!, is no longer the onl& game in to#n,M %he Ne# Gor5 %imes re"orted that LFust one of Chinas "lanned loans, the [0* billion for 7ra=ils national oil com"an&, is almost as much as the [00,) billion in all a""ro3ed financing b& the Inter-2merican 7an5 in )**X, 7ra=il is e/"ected to use the loan for offshore e/"loration, #hile agreeing to e/"ort as much as 0**,*** barrels of oil a da& to China, according to the oil com"an&,M Chinas interest in 7ra=il comes on the heels

of 7ra=ilian President 4ui= Ignacio 4ula da !il3as call for an economic ne# #orld order, In a telling statement about #here man& 4atin 2merican heads-of-state "lace blame for the economic situation, the "o"ular leader blamed L#hite "eo"le #ith blue e&esM for the current global financial mess, @e said this during a meeting #ith 7ritish Prime Minister Gordon 7ro#n, and re"eated it "ublicl& in #ee5s to come, E3en 'amaica, hea3il& indebted and confronting gro#ing unem"lo&ment, turned to China after failing to secure credit from the 9,!, or 7ritain, %he Caribbean island nation negotiated [0EX million in loan "ac5ages from 7eiFing, turning China into its "rinci"al financial "artner o3ernight,

*( as alrea'y a!an'one' Latin America an' C ina as alrea'y fille' in +&lc in 1, e/"ert in contem"orar& 4atin 2merican studies, s"eciali=ing in foreign "olic& and
com"arati3e urban de3elo"ment, !enior Fello#, Me/ico and Central 2merica Program at @ar3ard 9ni3ersit&('ose"h %ulchin, L!etting the 2gendaJ 2sia and 4atin 2merica in the )0st

Centur&M, "g )0N htt"J--scholarl&re"ositor&,miami,edu-cgi-3ie#content,cgi6 articleO0***Pconte/tOclasQ"ublicationsR

In an effort to ma5e a com"licated subFect as sim"le as "ossible in a short "resentation, it is m& S 3ie# that, since ?-00, the strategic frame#or5 used b& the 9! go3ernment has reduced 4atin 2merica S to a =one of relati3e insigniTcance, %he "roblem is not that some countr& is threatening 9! interests S in the hemis"here or using the hemis"here to threaten the 9!N instead, the 9!, since the

beginning S of the George D, 7ush administration, has lac5ed a clear 3ie# of the role of 4atin 2mericaHeither
an& single 4atin 2merican countr& or the grou" of countries o"erating #ithin the frame#or5 of the S >rgani=ation of 2merican !tates (>2!1 or 9NHin the "ost-Cold Dar #orld, S Neither 7ush nor >bama has been able to focus sufTcientl& on the hemis"here to "roduce a coherent foreign "olic& that satisTes 9! interests in 4atin 2merica and res"onds to the ne#l& S emerging 3oices in the region, In conseBuence, the 9! go3ernment, in dealing #ith the hemis"here, S has de3oted most of its attention
S

to issues tied directl& to domestic concerns, such as drug trafTc5ing,immigration, and Cuba, E3en trade, #hich could
easil& be the focus of regional or collecti3e attention, S is handled as an outgro#th of concern for the domestic econom&, %he 2"ril )*0) !ummit of the S 2mericas in Cartagena #as a clear indication of the absence of 9! leadershi" and focus, #ith almost S no attem"t to Tnd #a&s to tie the hemis"here together or e/"lore increasing regional collaboration, S Part of the "roblem is that in the "ost-Cold Dar "eriod, the nations of 4atin 2merica ha3e found S it e/tremel& difTcult to Tnd their o#n 3oices to e/"ress their ne# sense of agenc&, Moreo3er, there S are clear signs of considerable disagreement among the nations of the

region, #hich ma5es an& S collaborati3e effort among them more difTcult, 2n& argument that 9! hegemon& is in decline assumes S a uni3ocal 4atin 2merican res"onse to that hegemon&, In fact, it is 3er& difTcult to demonstrate S an& grou" consensus among the nations in 4atin 2merica , at least one that can be
translated into S collecti3e action or Foint "olic&, S %hat brings me bac5 to China, China "la&s se3eral different roles in 4atin 2merica, %he most S "rominent is its seemingl& insatiable consum"tion of commodities, as if China #ere a large industrial S &a# ta5ing in unimaginable Buantities of 4atin 2merican ra# materials, In addition, it continues its S more traditional role of e/"orter of chea" manufactured goods, the role it has "la&ed in the 9! for S decades and, most "rominentl&, in Me/ico for the "ast t#ent& &ears, It is "la&ing both roles in 7ra=il S at the moment, creating a serious "olitical "roblem for President Cilma Rouseff, S %he role that concerns the radical declinists and the Pentagon is the soft-s"o5en Chinese role of S lender and in3estor, %hat is the role ChA3e= tried to get China to "la& in :ene=uela, %he t#o countries S signed agreements #ith great fanfare, but 3er& little has ha""ened, In Ecuador, China has become S the lender of last resort and a maFor in3estor, %hroughout the 2ndean region, it ser3es as a maFor S in3estor, not lender, in the mining sector, %his alread& has stirred nationalist sentiment in Peru, #here S a Chinese state-o#ned com"an& sent in uniformed Chinese securit& guards to "rotect the com"an&s S "ro"ert&, setting off alarm bells about a re"eat of e/"eriences in 2frica, %he e3idence of Chinese S intentions is ambiguous, In most e/am"les of direct in3estment, Chinese state-controlled enter"rises S generall& o"erate through third "arties, #ith due diligence "erformed b& "ri3ate Trms contracted S to do the #or5, !uch in3estment "roFects are embedded sociall& in #a&s that do not occur in other S forms of loans or trade s#a"s, Con3ersel&, the o"aBue manner in #hich such Chinese enter"rises S o"erate raises sus"icions, %he current Pentagon nightmare is of Chinese statecontrolled in3estment S in the lithium de"osits of 7oli3ia, e/tracted #ith Chinese labor and "rotected b& Chinese troo"s, 2nd S &et, the nationalist reaction in the region to Chinese "retensions is much more signiTcant than an& S "ossible 9! res"onse, S %his brings me to the third Buestion, #hich interests me the most, If I #ere to #rite a "a"er on S this to"ic, I #ould focus on the "erce"tion in 4atin 2merican nations, #hich 3aries from countr& to S countr&, of the roles China does or might "la& in the region, Dhat are the "olic& res"onses b& 4atin S 2merican nations to Chinas ne# "resence6 %he onl& clear ans#er is in the case of 7ra=il, #here S there is signiTcant tension bet#een the t#o go3ernments, %he Chileans also ha3e ta5en u" the S debate, and there are signs that if an& of the announced Chinese in3estments in the mining and S energ& sectors actuall& get off the ground, a serious debate #ill emerge in 2rgentina as #ell, In Ecuador and :ene=uela, noted for their loud rhetorical noises against the 9!,

the Chinese "resence S is considered another form of anti-im"erialism and the rise of China e3idence of 9! decline, S 2t this moment, on balance, Chinas role in 4atin 2merica is still ill formed, %he "roblem is not S China but rather the lac5 of a clear 9! stance and a #ea5 "olic& debate in 4atin 2merica , !e3eral S scenarios are "ossible going for#ard, >ne is that neither the 9! nor the 4atin 2merica nations #ill S formulate a collecti3e "olic& to deal #ith the ne# "henomenon, and "ublic discussion #ill continue S to entertain #ild s"eculations and cons"irac&
theories, 2nother scenario is that 7ra=il #ill ta5e the S lead to get the Comunidad de Estados 4atinoamericanos & CaribeUos (CE42C1 or 9ni;n de Naciones S !uramericanas (9N2!9R1 to formulate a collecti3e res"onse based on shared 3alues or interests, For S e/am"le, it is difTcult, but not im"ossible, to imagine a concerted effort to formulate rules concerning S in3estments in natural resources, Can #e imagine a Mercosur "olic& on China6 Can Me/ico get the S countries of Central 2merica to Foin a regional res"onse to Chinese trade6 It is also "ossible that a S "olic& based on em"hasis of the rule of la# #ill

"ro3ide a frame#or5 for dealing #ith an& e/ternal S inVuence on the regions domestic "olicies,

*( infl&ence in LA is 'eclining no#;ca&sing C ina rise of infl&ence Hong!o/ 14 W (!un, L4atin 2merica area for global "o#ers,M 77C Monitoring 2sia Pacific W Political !u""lied b& 77C Dorld#ide Monitoring, 'une .th, )*0E, 4e/isNe/is1

Ne# Chinese

President ai 'in"ing chose 4atin 2merica as "art of the destinations for his second state 3isit, a sign that the ne# leadershi" #ill concentrate more on 4atin 2merica8s role and influence in the transforming global "attern, %here are li5el& to be more maFor ste"s for#ard to tune u" !ino-4atin 2merican coo"eration, China8s in3estment in 4atin 2merica #ill be enlarged dramaticall&, along #ith a more s"ecific and "ractical "olic& aiming to acti3el& balance the different e/"ectations of the interests of both sides, >b3iousl&, China has become an im"ortant strategic "artner #ith 4atin 2merica in terms of economic e/changes and foreign affairs, Com"ared
#ith other regions such as the 2sia-Pacific and the Middle East, 4atin 2merica is not "i3otal in the change of the international "attern, Ne3ertheless, 4atin 2merica is becoming more full& engaged #ith international affairs, More im"ortantl&, 4atin

2merica is no longer constrained to a 9!-dominated Destern hemis"here, but is de3elo"ing relationshi"s #ith emerging economies from the rest of the #orld, @o#e3er, challenges still remain in those countries8 China "olicies in terms of "olic& coordination and im"lementation, It reBuires both China and 4atin 2merica to ma5e efforts to guide and design the direction of the bilateral relationshi" , It is also una3oidable that 4atin 2merica has become an arena for another round of "o#er struggles, %he 9! is tr&ing to regain its influence in 4atin 2merica, #hile Russia, India and 'a"an, no matter #hether out of consideration of 4atin 2merica8s resources and mar5et or the need to readFust their foreign "olic&, are also loo5ing to ta5e a share, 7oth traditional "o#ers and emerging economies are loo5ing for le3erage in the region, E3er& maFor "o#er is s"eculating on the changes inside 4atin 2merica, %he dominant 9! "osition in this region has started to decline, 7ra=il is a rising "o#er, but it is uncertain #hether it can establish leadershi" in this region, Mean#hile, left-#ing
go3ernments in 4atin 2merica are being challenged o3er the sustainabilit& of their "olicies, 2nd most 4atin 2merican countries are readFusting their foreign "olicies for a di3erse s&stem of foreign relations, MaFor "o#ers are re-e3aluating their

interests and readFusting their "olicies in this region to com"ete for influence , 7ut #hether the& can li3e
u" to their o#n e/"ectations de"ends on their national strength and future gro#th, and more im"ortantl&, #hether the& can balance their interests #ith 4atin 2merica8s, 7oth China and the 9! ha3e denied an& intention of ri3alr& in 4atin

2merica, but the thri3ing relationshi" bet#een China and 4atin 2merica has alread& im"acted the traditional 9!influence o3er this region, 4atin 2merica has become an una3oidable to"ic if China and the 9! #ant to establish a ne# "attern of relationshi" , !etting u" mechanisms to enhance
communication, negotiation and mutual trust bet#een both countries o3er this region should be a to" "riorit&, More challenges than o""ortunities #ill "re3ail in the future relationshi" bet#een the 9! and 4atin 2merica, %he challenges are mostl& left o3er b& histor&, such as immigration, drug dealing and 9! "olicies to#ard Cuba and :ene=uela, 7esides, its domestic "olic& has bloc5ed the de3elo"ment of its 4atin 2merica "olic&, %here might be a strong resistance if the 9! #ants to im"ro3e its

relationshi" #ith 4atin 2merica, For China, it #ill embrace more o""ortunities than challenges in this area, 2lthough frictions ha3e ta5en "lace in !ino-4atin 2merican economic relationshi", the& are aus"icious signals that
the relationshi" bet#een China and 4atin 2merica is in a booming de3elo"ment, %hese "roblems, "roduced b& "ros"erit&, #ill also be addressed amid such de3elo"ment, 7oth China and the 9! are see5ing #a&s to foster a constructi3e mechanism, so that trilateral coo"eration among China, the 9!, and 4atin 2merica #ill be achie3ed, Nonetheless, the trust deficit is the maFor obstruction that bloc5s both countries to dee"en this coo"eration, 2nd China also needs to learn ho# to better res"ect 4atin 2merica8sinterests, More im"ortantl&, all three "arties, including China, the 9! and 4atin 2merica, ha3e to find out feasible areas of coo"eration,

C ina as !een ramping &p economic infl&ence t ro&g o&t Latin America '&e to ig reso&rce 'eman' <ega/ : ('uan, ',C, candidate at the 9ni3ersit& of Minnesota 4a# !chool, M,7,2 at the 9ni3ersit& of Florida, LChina8s Economic and Political Clout Gro#s in 4atin 2merica at the E/"ense of 9,!, Interests,M 0. Minn, ', Global %rade E((, !ummer )**I, le/is, %ashma1 ), China8s In3estments in Ke& !ectors in 4atin 2mericaJ >il, Commodities, and Infrastructures China8s high demand for commodities has dri3en u" the "rice of metals, agricultural "roducts, and oil, (. China is a maFor im"orter of ra# materials, a "lentiful commodit& in 4atin 2merica, (I + is ma.es 'oing !&siness #it C ina "ery attracti"e to Latin American co&ntries , es"eciall& 7ra=il, (+ For e/am"le, China8s to" steel
ma5er, 7aosteel, is considering a Foint 3enture #ith 7ra=il8s Com"anhia :ale de Rio Coce, the #orld8s to" iron ore miner, (( 4atin 2merica and the Caribbean "ro3ide o3er thirt& "ercent of 9,!, im"orted oil, #hich is more than all of the Middle Eastern countries combined, (X 7ut China is not Fust securing oil and commodities from 4atin 2merican countries, it is

becoming intimatel& in3ol3ed in its e/traction, trans"ortation and infrastructure construction, (? China8s a""roach has been to sho# 4atin 2merican countries that, unli5e the 9 nited !tates, it #ill

treat them as so3ereigns and as "artners, In )**E, trade bet#een China and 7ra=il totaled eight billion dollars, ma5ing China 7ra=il8s second-largest trading "artner ZbEXXR after the 9nited !tates, X* 7ra=il is China8s largest trading "artner in 4atin 2merica and annual bilateral trade has tri"led since )***, X0 7oth countries recentl&
too5 "art in a #or5sho" entitled $7ra=il and China in the )0st Centur&,$ at #hich Chinese entre"reneurs sought 7ra=ilian "artners in economic sectors such as oil and agriculture, X) China see5s to in3est directl& in 7ra=il8s infrastructure, XE #here it has agreed to in3est bet#een [ E billion and [ . billion in rail#a&s and refineries, X. Dith 2rgentina, China see5s not onl& bilateral trade agreements but also to

become an in3estment "artner, "articularl& in the infrastructure and trans"ortation sectors, XI %o this end, 2rgentine President, Nestor Kirchner, and Chinese President, @u 'intao, signed an
agreement on 'une )X, )**., #hich enables both countries to Fointl& begin construction of a rail#a& and allo#s 2rgentina to e/"ort its citrus fruit to China, X+ Reali=ing that it must #or5 #ith China because it cannot com"ete against it, Me/ico has decided

to increase its e/"loration and "roduction of oil to satisf& China8s demand, X( In Februar& )**., Me/ico
held a conference entitled $China8s Influence on Me/ico8s Future,$ at #hich Me/ico8s ambassador to China ZbEX?R announced that Me/ico #ill increase its oil out"ut to meet China8s demands, XX China has agreed to in3est in :ene=uela8s state oil

com"an&, Petroleos de :ene=uela (PC:!21, X? :ene=uela8s Foreign Minister met #ith the managers of China National
Petroleum Cor"oration (CNPC1 in order to establish a strategic alliance o3er the e/"loration, transformation, and trans"ortation of crude oil, including u"grading necessar& infrastructure, ?* China also has indicated interest in in3esting [ E billion in Ecuador, "rimaril& in its oil sector, ?0 China is e3en courting smaller, sometimes forgotten countries, China

e/"ressed interest in in3esting in the construction of a ne# canal through Central 2merica, ?) %he
"ro"osed canal #ould cost [ )* billion and #ould utili=e 4a5e Nicaragua and one ri3er in southeast Nicaragua, ?E Gu&ana and China enFo& bilateral economic and technical coo"eration, ?. President @u 'intao said that China is #illing to de3elo" relations #ith Caribbean countries that #ould be of mutual benefit to 4atin 2merica and China, ?I %his coo"eration increases access for 4atin 2merican businesses to the gro#ing Chinese consumer mar5et, ZbE?*R E, Chinese Mar5et 2ttracti3eness to 4atin 2merican Countries Eager to obtain ne# customers, foreign manufacturers and distributors #ant to ta" into all areas of the gro#ing Chinese mar5et, ?+ China is ra"idl& creating the largest middle class in the #orld, #hich #ill ha3e tremendous bu&ing "o#er, ?( Foreign direct in3estment in China increased nineteen "ercent, to [ .E,+ billion, from 'anuar& to 2ugust )**. alone, ?X China consumes an increasing amount of oil and commodities and it o"ened its agricultural mar5et because it needs to im"ort great Buantities of food, ?? 4atin 2merican leaders #elcome an economic "o#er that treats them as true "artners and

"ro3ides an attracti3e economic alternati3e to dealing #ith the 9nited !tates, 0** %he trade tri" to China b& 7ra=il8s "resident in Ma& of )**. underscores this "oint, 0*0 Gi3en China8s needs for the ra# materials that 4atin 2merican countries ha3e and gi3en China8s coo"eration in infrastructure and satellite technolog& de3elo"ment, it a""ears as though China, 7ra=il, and other 4atin 2merican countries are entering an era of greater cooperation2 0*) ZbE?0R

*ns&staina!le Ne# C allengers ,NC

<ene6&ela is gaining regional egemonic stat&s cro#'s o&t *2(2 infl&ence Weis!rot/ 14 (Mar5, director of the Centre for Economic and Polic& Research, L4atin 2mericaJ %he End of an Era,M International 'ournal of @ealth !er3ices, :olume E+, Issue ., %ashma1 In 4atin 2merica this has coincided #ith a maFor and unantici"ated change that , combined #ith the IMFs loss of influence, has hel"ed usher in the ne# era of inde"endence, 2 ne# international lender has emergedJ :ene=uela, Dhen 2rgentina decided last Cecember to sa& its final goodb&e to the IMF b& "a&ing off its remaining
debt of [?,X billion (I,. "ercent of GCP1 at once, :ene=uela committed [),I billion to the cause, $If additional hel" is needed to hel" 2rgentina finall& free itself from the cla#s of the International Monetar& Fund, 2rgentina can count on us,$ ChA3e= announced on Cecember 0I, Kirchners statement announcing the decision #as e3en harsherJ $Zthe IMF hasR acted to#ards our countr& as a "romoter and a 3ehicle of "olicies that caused "o3ert& and "ain among the 2rgentine "eo"le,$ he said, 4ast &ear :ene=uela also committed to bu&ing [E** million of Ecuadors bondsN in Cecember, it turned out that Ecuador had sufficient demand for its bonds that it onl& needed to sell [)I million to :ene=uela, but the latters commitment #as there as a lender of last resort, ChA3e= has "ro"osed to formali=e this ne# relationshi" b& establishing a L7an5 of the !outh,M to finance de3elo"ment in the region, and offered to start it off #ith a [I billion contribution, In the meantime, :ene=uela is also "ro3iding discounted oil financing

for the Caribbean countries under its PetroCaribe "rogram, %he result for 7oli3ia is that des"ite its "o3ert& and
underde3elo"ment, the ne# go3ernment #ill not ha3e to #orr& too much about #hether the 9nited !tates a""ro3es of #hat it is doing #ith regard to foreign energ& com"anies, trade negotiations (a bilateral trade deal, long sought b& Dashington, is no# "rett& much dead1, macroeconomic "olicies, or drug "olic&, 2n& aid cuts from Dashington, Euro"e, or international lending agencies #ill be more than re"laced b& :ene=uela, Dhen 7oli3ia #as about to lose [0(* million in so&bean e/"orts to Colombia as a result of the latters decision in 2"ril to sign a bilateral trade agreement #ith the 9nited !tates, :ene=uela ste""ed in as a re"lacement bu&er, !uch is the "arado/ of the ne# hemis"heric orderJ it is no# e3en easier for a small, "oor countr& to reFect Lthe Dashington ConsensusM than it is for larger, middle income countries to do so W although the choices for all ha3e been greatl& e/"anded, :ene=uela has more than [E* billion in foreign e/change reser3esN #hate3er 7oli3ia might need #ill be "rett& small relati3e to :ene=uelas ca"acit& for lending and aid, In Fust the last month (Ma&1, :ene=uela has announced a [0** million loan to 7oli3ia and a similar amount to su""ort the "ro"osed land reform, as #ell as numerous other forms of aid, 2nd :ene=uelas lending and aid "rograms, unli5e that of the international financial institutions or the G-( go3ernments, do not ha3e economic "olic& conditions attached to them, %his ma5es all the difference in the #orld, :ie#ed through the Cold Dar lens of official

Dashington and the foreign "olic& establishment, t ese disbursements and initiati"es are either as "art of an attempt to !&il' an Aanti-AmericanB a@is , or, as ChA3e= sim"l& bu&ing friends in the region,
ChA3e= himself, #ho has named his re3olution after the 0Xth centur& liberator !imon 7oli3ar, sees it as freeing !outh 2merica from the gri" of the 9,!, em"ire, 7ut regardless of ho# it is seen in ideological terms, the im"act of this alternati3e source of financing has alread& had an enormous im"act on the abilit& of go3ernments to ignore "ressures from Dashington, %his trend is li5el& to

continue unless there is a sudden and 3er& se3ere colla"se of oil "rices, 9&ssia an' Iran are ramping &p infl&ence in t e region --- itCs 6ero-s&m #it *2(2 infl&ence 9+/ 0 (%he Real %ruth, L4atin 2merica 4oo5s East Dhere Coes %his 4ea3e the 9nited !tates6,M I-0*-*?, htt"J--realtruth,org-articles-*?*I*.-**.-americas,html, %ashma1 Russia and Iran 2ssert %hemsel3es It is not Fust China that is ca"itali=ing on o""ortunities in the Destern hemis"here, Russian and Iranian ties and su""ort for 4atin 2merica ha3e also been gro#ing, 4ast month, Russian Prime Minister :ladimir Putin met #ith socialist-leaning Chilean President Michelle 7achelet, "romising to ste" u" coo"eration #ith the nation, L^De are satisfied #ith the de3elo"ment of our relations, including regular contacts and trends in trade and economic relations, ZMr,R Putin said, ^Get bilateral trade is rather modest so far, It is necessar& to thin5 about di3ersificationM (Itar-%ass1, LFor Russia, its Caribbean na3al Faunt is a s&mbolic ri"oste to 2mericas "lan to "lace missile batteries in Poland and to its dis"atch of na3al 3essels to distribute aid in Georgia after
Russias incursion in 2ugust, %he same goes for its recent re3i3al of ties #ith Cubac7ut Mr Med3ede3s main "ur"ose in 4atin 2merica is business, Mr ChA3e= has alread& bought arms #orth [.,. billion from RussiaHincluding a Kalashni5o3 factor& due to start "roducing I*,*** rifles a &ear in )*0*, Russia #as re"orted this month to ha3e signed a contract to sell :ene=uela "ortable airdefence missilesM (%he Economist1, In light of these de3elo"ments, it must be considered that Russias goals ma& not be so economicall& singular, Russian #arshi"s doc5ed on Cuban shores , Fust ?* miles off the 9,!, border, for the first

time since the end of the Cold Dar, %here #as a time #hen the 9nited !tates #ould ha3e 3ie#ed

this #ith heightened alarm, 7ut in this age of Lne# beginnings,M and as President >bama distances the 9,!, from the Ldi"lomac& of the "ast,M it is not, E3er&thing seems to be business as usual, For a 3ariet& of reasons, 4atin 2merica has been of increasing interest to Iran as #ell, Not onl& has Iran identified the same economic o""ortunities in the region as China and Russia, but it recogni=es 4atin 2merica, s"ecificall& :ene=uelas anti-2merican President @ugo ChA3e=, as a li5e-minded di"lomatic "artner, L%he moti3e for Irans recent interest in 4atin 2merica seems to be a desire to add to its small stoc5 of di"lomatic friends around the #orld, and to score "ro"aganda "oints against the 9nited !tates, Mr, ChA3e= has signed no fe#er than )** co-o"eration agreements #ith Iran, :ene=uelan officials sa& that Iran has in3ested more than [( billion in their countr& Hin "lants to assemble cars, tractors, farm machiner& and bic&cles, as #ell as oilH and that bilateral trade has reached [.,+ billionM (%he Economist1, Recentl&, 7ra=ils foreign minister 3isited Iran and in3ited Iranian President Mahmoud 2hmadineFad to 3isit 7ra=il, 2dditionall&, Iran has "romised [0,0 billion in in3estments to de3elo" 7oli3ias natural gas industr& (ibid,1, Dith gro#ing concern from the 9nited !tates, Iran has also been in ongoing tal5s #ith Nicaragua and its former Mar/ist guerrilla-turned-"resident, Caniel >rtega, %he tal5s ha3e focused on "ursuing the construction
of a [EI* million Caribbean "ort financed b& Iran to alle3iate the ongoing energ& crisis in the small Central 2merican nation,

*( infl&ence in Latin America is 'eclining no# an' it fails;no respect Llana/ 1, W Monitor8s Euro"ean 7ureau Chief based in Paris, masters in Fournalism from Columbia 9ni3ersit& and a 72 in histor& from the 9ni3ersit& of Michigan (!ara Miller, LI* &ears after Cuba Missile Crisis, 9! influence in hemis"here #aningN In3estment from emerging economies li5e China and Russia are diminishing 4atin 2merica8s reliance on the 9nited !tates, ma5ing it more difficult for Dashington to isolate regimes li5e Cuba,M %he Christian !cience Monitor, >ctober 0., )*0), 4e/isNe/is1--@24
It #as #hat man& consider the most dangerous moment the #orld has e3er facedJ the Cuban Missile Crisis of 0?+), #hich sa# the 9nited !tates sBuare off o3er nuclear missiles stationed b& the !o3iet 9nion in Cuba, %his #ee5 mar5s the I*th anni3ersar& of the beginning of the tense standoff, 2nd #hile the "olitics of the Cold Dar ha3e little rele3ance for 9!-4atin 2merican relations toda&, in some #a&s the 9! finds itself in the 3er& "osition that set the stage for conflict in the first "lace, sa&s Phili" 7renner, a historian of the missile crisis at 2merican 9ni3ersit&, Dith 9! influence #aning in the region, 4atin 2merica is forging

ahead #ith its o#n agenda, It #as not onl& the containment of communism that dro3e 9! attem"ts to oust Fidel Castro from the helm of Cuba in the earl& 0?+*s sa&s Mr, 7renner, %he 9! #as also concerned about 4atin 2merican countries emulating Cuba, "articularl& its geo"olitical stance in the Cold Dar, and thus undermining 2merican leadershi" in the #estern hemis"here, !ome I* &ears later, the 9! faces the same situation, Fust a more modern iteration, $Dhat the 9! feared the most in 0?+) has come to "ass,$ sa&s 7renner, #ho authored $!ad and 4uminous Ca&sJ Cuba8s !truggle #ith the !u"er"o#ers after the Missile Crisis,$ $De #ere concerned about our s"here of influence that #e had ta5en for granted,,,, Z%oda&R #e cannot dominate this region an&more, %he& do not loo5 to us for leadershi", Countries loo5 #ithin the region, and to some e/tent to Cuba still,$ 2fter the terrorist attac5s of ?-00, the 9! turned its attention from 4atin 2merica as it focused on terrorism and threats from the Middle East, 2t the same time, o3er the "ast decade 4atin 2merican democrac& has flourished and the global econom& shifted, #ith 4atin 2merica no longer loo5ing Fust north to the 9! for leadershi" and in3estment, but to India, China, and Russia , China sur"assed the 9!
as 7ra=il8s biggest trading "artner in )**?, In3estment from outside Most of these relationshi"s are economic in nature among emerging economies, If Russia, for e/am"le, once e&ed Cuba to buo& its "olitical "roFect close to the 2merican border, toda& it is in5ing energ& deals and selling arms in 4atin 2merica because it finds #illing "artners and "urchasers there, $Russia is going to sell all 5inds of arms to :ene=uela, not because Z:ene=uelan PresidentR @ugo Cha3e= is sa&ing he is socialist, It8s because he has mone& to "a& for it,$ sa&s 2le/ !anche=, a senior research fello# at the Council on @emis"heric 2ffairs, %he flurr& of in3estment in countries ranging from :ene=uela to 7oli3ia hel"s to further undermine 9! global dominance in the region, a scenario that man& leaders #elcome toda&, Chief among them is Mr, Cha3e=, #ho Fust #on another si/-&ear term in office, and his allies including President E3o Morales in 7oli3ia and President Caniel >rtega in Nicaragua, Indeed, the anni3ersar& of the Cuban Missile Crisis

#ill li5el& "ro3ide an o""ortunit& for the $e/treme left$ in 4atin 2merica to e/"ress su""ort for Cuba, sa&s 'ohns @o"5ins 4atin 2merican e/"ert Riordan Roett, $%he& #ill be in solidarit& about the sur3i3al of the Castro brothers,$ Mr, Roett sa&s, 82 l&nch"in8 in the region %hat 5ind of defiance - sho#ing res"ect for a nation that for so long the 9! has considered a thorn in its side - #ould ha3e been unthin5able I* &ears ago, 7efore the Cuban Missile Crisis, after the failed 7a& of Pigs in3asion, the 9! "ressured 4atin 2merican countries to sus"end Cuba8s membershi" from the >rgani=ation of 2merican !tates (>2!1, 2t the
same time, Cuba signed onto the non-aligned mo3ement, and 7renner sa&s it #as that mo3e that the 9! feared other countries

in 4atin 2merica might follo#, 2t the time,

9! thin5ing on the mo3ement #as, 8&ou are #ith us or &ou are against us,8 %he "olitics surrounding Cuba at the >2! highlights the declining influence of the 9! on the region, Fift& &ears ago the 9! ad3ocated for Cuba8s sus"ension, and #as successfulN but during the grou"8s summit
in 2"ril, leaders across "olitical s"ectrums said the& #ould Buestion attending another summit #ithout Cuba at the table, $%his comes from ZColombian President 'uan ManuelR !antos, our most lo&al all& in the region,$ sa&s 7renner, $ Cuba #as once the

"ariah stateN it is no# a l&nch"in for all the other countries ,$

*ns&staina!le Ne# Drgani6ations ,NC

All former nee' for *( lea'ers ip is gone;ne# instit&tions a"e gro#n to sta!ili6e Latin America #it o&t t e *nite' (tates )&ntigliano/ > - 2ssistant Professor in Economic histor& and 4ecturer in 4atin 2merican !tudies at !toc5holm 9ni3ersit& (2ndres Ri3arola, LGlobal shiftJ the 9,N, s&stem and the ne# regionalism in 4atin 2merica,M 2rticle fromJ 4atin 2merican Politics and !ociet& d March )), )**(, htt"J--business,highbeam,com-.)I*+*-article-0G0-0+*X*00+X-global-shift-un-s&stemand-ne#-regionalism-latin-america1--@24
%his is a mainl& theoretical article that intends to rethin5 the role of 4atin 2merica in the light of global s&stemic changesN and, as Celich ()**.1 holds, to rethin5 is to disco3er, %he "oint of de"arture is that #ith the end of the Cold Dar, a ne# economic order and securit& bal- ance is ta5ing form in the ne# institutional en3ironment generall& called globali=ation, 2n im"ortant im"lication of this change is that #ith the end of bi"olarit& and the erosion of su"er"o#er hegemon&, ne# s"heres of authorit& (!>2s1 ha3e emerged on the #orld scene (Rosenau 0??(1, >ne increasingl& rele3ant s"here of authorit& is the 9,N, s&stem, #hich has gained "rominence as a source of normati3e and moral authorit&, %his article e/"lores the lin5s bet#een the 9,N, s&stem as a global s"here of authorit& and emerging regional constellations from the "eri"her& in 4atin 2merica, !ome o3erall inBuiries e/amine the e/tent to #hich nation-states are using regional formations as 3ehicles of de3elo"ment and securit&

strategies, %he article further anal&=es #hether a stronger lin5 bet#een

"eri"her& grou"ings and the 9,N, s&stem might im"ro3e the grou"s8 bargaining "o#er, and #hat this could mean for ho# "eri"heral states formulate their long-term foreign and de3elo"ment strategies, For such anal&sis, t#o im"ortant elements are the #aning significance of the dichotom& bet#een domestic and foreign mar5ets, and the ne# forms of di"lomatic articulations and regional e/"ressions (e,g,, 3alues, norms, or organi=ations1, #hich function as a 5ind of local ("olitical, cultural, and economic1 ans#er to the globali=ation "rocess, %he #ord ne#, ho#e3er, should not lead to a neglect of the "ast, Probabl& as a reac- tion to the homogeni=ing force of globali=ation, regionalism

"resents an im"ortant alternati3e that includes the a#areness of the local identities and former e/"eriences that are remi/ed into the ne# s&stem, @istor& does indeed matter, and #e must 5ee" in mind that social "rocesses contain lines of continuit& and change, 2 basic h&"othesis in this article is that the 9,N, s&stem is becoming a ne# core as a s"here of authorit&, causing an erosion of the hegemon& of industriali=ed countries from North 2merica and Euro"e (the traditional core1 that ha3e held dominant economic and normati3e control o3er the s&stem, %he 9,N, s&stem still is a rather loose net#or5 of organi=ations, each #ith its o#n go3erning bodies, budgets, and secre- tariats, #ithout su"ranational structures in the areas of securit& and for- eign "olic&,8 Each com"onent of the s&stem has a different 5ind of inter- national le3erage and is subFected to different forms of national control, %he 9,N, s&stem

agencies, furthermore, often hold different "ositions on maFor issues, such as economic and social matters, Get there a""ears to be a tendenc& for greater su"ranational interaction among them, together #ith a homogeni=ation of norms that con3e&s a 5ind of moral identit& on the s&stem, !ome of these norms relate to human rights, the fight against "o3ert&, res"ect for international la#, fair trade rules, and the en3ironment, %he tendenc& for interaction does not im"l& an absence of conflict in the s&stem, nor does it suggest that all agencies inter"ret the norms in the same #a&, 7ut it does im"l& that the norms are increasingl& inter#o3en , ma5ing
it necessar& for actors, such as states or national and international nongo3ernmental organi=ations, to dichotomies in the international s&stem, %hat conce"tion is still true, but it should be anal&=ed in light of the s&stemic shifts "roduced b& "ost-Cold Dar institutional changes, %his essa& "resents a more detailed anal&sis of regionali=ation and the 9,N, s&stem and the theoretical im"lications of this relationshi" for the stud& of international relations, %he discussion also outlines elements

inherent to the globali=ation "rocess that contribute to a closer discussion of the 4atin 2merican case, %hese include the #aning dichotom& bet#een domestic and foreign mar5etsN the di"lomatic artic-

ulations, trade "artnershi"s, and legitimating 3alues at #or5 in the rela- tionshi"N the contradictions bet#een the regional and international ordersN and the a#areness of local identities and former e/"eriences that are remi/ed into the ne# s&stem, 2 %@E>RE%IC24 >:ER:IED 2 maFor assum"tion of mainstream studies in international relations since the end of Dorld Dar II has been a statecentric "oint of 3ie# in #hich nation-state interests #ere the 5e& units of anal&sis, 2nother "i3- otal assum"tion #as bi"olarit&, #ith su"er"o#ers setting the agenda of alliances and conflicts along #hich states delineated their strategies, !ince the "ost-0?X? transformations, ho#e3er, both "illars ha3e been se3erel& challenged, In relation to the former, "undits maintain that state-centric literature is an uncertain foundation for theori=ing about ho# domestic and international "olitics interact (Putnam 0??E1, %he issue is thus not #hether to combine domestic and international e/"la- nations, but ho# best to do so (E3ans et al, 0??E, ?1, Rosenau goes e3en further, arguing that this "ers"ecti3e is im"risoned b& the idea that the line bet#een domestic and foreign affairs still ser3es as the cutting edge of anal&sis, @is a""roach lies in a #orld 3ie# that recasts the rele3ance of $territorialit&,$ highlighting instead the $"orosit& of boundaries$ (0??(, +.1, %his means that instead of a state-centric "redominance, there are com"le/ multicentric structures, "rocesses, and rules, #hich he calls s"heres of authorit& (!>2s1, %here is a gro#ing interest in research on ne# s"heres of author- it&N for e/am"le, through conce"ts such as #orld culture (7oli and %homas 0???1, global go3ernance (@eld et al, 0???1, and em"ire (@ardt and Negri )**01, Common among these a""roaches is that the& go be&ond nation-states to include international go3ernmental, nongo3ern- mental, or regional organi=ations as central actors in the formation of s"heres of authorit& (see also

2min )***1, More and more studies "oint to the strengthening of non-state-centered sources of rulema5ing, %hese include transnationall& organi=ed sources of "o#er and legitimac&, including states, and international go3ernmental and nongo3ernmental elaborate strategies that ta5e into account the different (and sometimes antagonistic1 com"onents of the s&stem, 2long this same line, a second h&"othesis in this stud& is that regional constellations are becoming a ne# means of e/"ression for nation-states, #hich are starting to amalgamate securit& and de3elo"- ment strategies and ta5e ad3antage of the room to maneu3er o"ened through the 9,N, s&stem, %he Euro"ean 9nion (E91 is a "ioneer in this sense, in acting #ith one 3oice in the Dorld %rade >rgani=ation (D%>1, Dhereas the E9 has recei3ed much attention, ho#e3er, regionalism in the "eri"her& has dra#n little, "robabl& because these regional grou"- ings ha3e still not reached the E98s le3el of institutionali=ation and influ- ence, Get there are indications of change in both senses, Moreo3er, an interesting dimension of "eri"her& regionalism and its lin5 to the 9,N, s&stem is that it a""ears to challenge the established Cold Dar "erce"- tion of core and "eri"her&, #hich has been seen as one of the maFor organi=ations, but also standardi=ation organi=ations, "ri3ate com"anies, e"istemic communities, and other grou"s (see 7a&ne and Doolcoc5 )**.N Et=ioni )**.1, !ome of these regulators are states themsel3es or are connected to states, but some are more loosel& connected or e3en not connected at all, In the #ords of 7runsson and 'acobsson ()***1, $the #orld is full of organi=ations that "roduce rules for others-be the& states, com"anies or indi3iduals-to follo#,$ %a5ing all these elements into account, this stud& shares the 3ie# of those #ho argue that the globali=ation "rocess is changing the #a& #e thin5 about global

$authorit&,$ >f course, the 9nited !tates, #ith its

"o#erful militar& machine, could ste" o3er international la# and in3ade IraB (certainl& a "oint for the neorealists1, >n the other hand, IraB has also sho#n the limitations of $hard "o#er$ and the need for $soft "o#er$ (the abilit& to attract others b& the legitimac& of "olicies and 3alues1, gi3en that the 9nited !tates $cannot

confront the ne# threat of terrorism #ithout the coo"eration of other countries$ (N&e )**., 0(1, %herefore, the 9,N, matters, %here is, though, a debate around the role of the 9,N, !ome com- mentators "ortra& the
organi=ation as largel& a failure because it does not reflect thie underl&ing d&namics of "o#er, culture, and securit&, 2ccording to such a 3ie#, 9,!, unilateralism during the IraB crisis sho#s that $the first and last geo"olitical truth is that states "ursue securit& b& "ursuing "o#er$ (Glennon )**E1, %here are certainl& man& challenges to international la# as #ell as structural "roblems at the 9,N,N but this does not necessaril& reflect an increasing hegemon& of the 9nited !tates, Parado/icall&, in s"ite of its crisis, the

9,N, s&stem is increasingl& a source of global legitimac& and a 5ind of $moralit& of last resort,$
0000It is also becoming a central node in a s&stem of international go3ernmental and nongo3ernmental organi=ations that is forming a ne# dimension of #orld "olit&, %his can be a""reciated, for e/am"le, in the role that 9,N, agencies "la& as "romoters, defenders, and creators of human rights standards, de3elo"ment "riorities, health- and education-related issues, or, as recentl&, in hel"ing to mobili=e resources to assist the tsunami 3ic- tims or in nation-building missions (Cobbin )**I1, %hus, "arallel to the centrifugal forces unleashed b& the globali=a- tion "rocess, there is also a centri"etal force that creates coherence among global units of the s&stem and its regional subunits, Et=ioni8s #ords gi3e "erha"s a good "icture of the 9,N,J 2nother conseBuence of the end of the East-Dest dichotom& that is rele3ant for this stud& is the emergence of a ne# "attern of global secu- rit& relations, in #hich conce"ts such as $third #orld$ ha3e lost their meaning, 2bout this, 7u=an (0??0, .E01 holds that $the best a3ailable set of terms to ca"ture the relationshi"s of the 0??*s comes from the center- "eri"her& a""roach elaborated in the de"endenc& literature of the 0?+*s and 0?(*s,$ %hat is true, but it is narro# to loo5 at it from the "er- s"ecti3e of the "re-0?X? s&stem, #hen there #as a state-centered notion of the core attached to the industriali=ed countries and their economic grou"s as the dominant s"here of authorit&, It is also im"ortant to note that the so-called de"endenc& literature had 3er& di3ergent "ers"ecti3es on the center"eri"her& issue, ranging from the structuralist #or5 of Pre- bisch (0?.?1 or Cardoso and Faletto (0?(.1 to the Mar/ist-ins"ired studies of Fran5 (0?(01, 7ut other center-"eri"her& studies also are 3er& im"ortant, albeit generall& ignored b& the de3elo"ment debate, %hese stem from the "ers"ecti3e outlined b& !hils (0?(I1, In a model reminiscent of Friedrich @egel8s thesis, antithesis, and s&nthesis a""roach, !hils "ro"oses three central ideasJ integration, con- flict, and countercenters, @e argues that there must al#a&s be some measure of integration for a societ& to e/ist, #hich does not im"l& that all societies must be highl& integrated or that the& are all eBual (!hils 0?XX1, @e 3ie#s conflict as an e/"ression of the "eri"her&8s resistance to assimilation b& the core, Countercenters are seen as designating the "eri"her&8s "ermanent desire to "enetrate the s"here of authorit& dom- inated b& the core, ReFecting the rigidities inherent in man& core- "eri"her& 3ie#s, !hils does not see "o#er as a one-#a& street of core dominance o3er "eri"her&, @ence, "eri"her& is seen not necessaril& Fust as a 3ictim but also as a source of "o#er, through the formation of countercenters, 2 main 3alue of this "ers"ecti3e is that it contains a d&namic model that is 3er& useful for anal&=ing current changes in the international s&stem, such as the one e/"ressed through the $ne# regionalism,$ 2ccording to @ettne et al, (0???1, "rocesses of economic globali=a- tion and regionali=ation are occurring simultaneousl& ,

ne# regionalisms is that the ne# are not onl& concerned #ith economic issues, but also ha3e securit& im"erati3es , %his means that the
%here ha3e been regional grou"ings in the "ast, &et a maFor difference bet#een old and relation- shi" bet#een de3elo"ment and securit& must be reconsidered, because, as @ettne ()**01 notes, $de3elo"ment has more e/"licitl& become a securit& issue and this is ta5ing form as e/hibited b& the ne# 5ind of regional constellations,$ 2nother feature of the ne# regionalism is that it ta5es "lace in a multi"olar global order, #hereas the old regionalism #as mar5ed b& bi"olarit&, %his "oint is central in lin5ing the ideas of !hils and of @ettne et al,N the latter see the rise of regional "o#ers as contributing to the decline of hegemon& of the industrial "o#ers (@ettne et al, 0???1, In a #a&, the regional "o#ers in @ettne8s formulation are analogous to #hat !hils refers to as countercenters, 2long this line, the ne# region- alism can be seen as a #a& of co"ing #ith global transformations, because an increasing number of states reali=e that the& lac5 the ca"a- bilit& and the means to manage such a tas5 alone, %hus, the mi/ing of securit&, economic, and social initiati3es is transforming the $region$ into a $s&nthesis$ of national securit& and de3elo"ment as"irations, %here is, of course, no single ans#er about ho# to ada"t to the ne# global structures, Indeed, the issue of defining globali=ation is itself an endless theme (@ettne )**0, 0+1, Furthermore, $there is no consensus on #hat 5ind of #orld order, if an&, #e can e/"ect to emerge from the combination of #hate3er changes are actuall& occurring in the global configuration of "o#er$ (2rrighi and !il3er 0???, )01, It should there- fore be remembered that regions are not gi3en but rather created and recreated in the "rocess of global transformation, %urning more s"ecificall& to the 4atin

2merican case, some researchers maintain that the end of the Cold Dar has not meant a more fle/ible en3ironment for the 4atin 2merican countries and that $eco- nomic matters a""ear to

ha3e re"laced "olitical ones as the fulcrum u"on #hich core influence is "ressed on 4atin 2merica$ (@e& and Mora )**E1, It is true that man& Cold Dar economic and militar& ineBualities still "ersist, &et this 3ie# fails
to "ercei3e the effects of the "ost-Cold Dar changes discussed abo3e, %raditionall&, the issue of securit& in 4atin 2merica has been related to national defense, restricted to the militar&, and lac5ing ci3ilian leadershi" or in"ut from the academic communit& (Ciamint )**.1, %hat "osition #as "articularl& true for the Cold Dar "eriod, #hen $de3elo"ment$ and $foreign "olic&$ #ere largel& se"arate issues, %he latter generall& had an im"erati3e in the ideological alignment behind one of the t#o su"er"o#ers, #hich meant gi3ing "riorit& to militar& securit& "ers"ecti3es, !uch logic moti3ated international alignments and "olicies that often left aside long-term de3elo"ment ad3antages and fos- tered an o3er#helming concern about the role of the 9nited !tates as an economic and securit& counter"art, Dith globali=ation, ho#e3er, a #hole ne# agenda emerged, together

#ith ne# regional actors, >ne of

the most remar5able is Mercosur, the Common Mar5et of the !outh, formed b& 2rgentina, 7ra=il, Paragua&, and 9rugua&, %his emerging bloc is becoming a ne# catal&st of regional "ositions in multilateral arenas and is one of the clearest e/"ressions of the $ne# regionalism,$

+ e er&ption of ne# organi6ations ero'es *2(2 infl&ence in t e region Ellner/ 1, (!te3e, "rofessor at the 9ni3ersidad de >riente in Puerto 4a Cru=, :ene=uela L4atin 2merican 9nit& %a5es Center !tage as 9,!, Influence Ceclines,M (-)*-0), htt"J--3ene=uelanal&sis,com-anal&sis-(00(, %ashma1
In s"ite of sur"rises in the lead-u" to the !i/th !ummit of the 2mericas in Cartagena, Colombia, on 2"ril 0.W0I, the results of the conference #ere "redictable, %he 9nited !tates and Canada found themsel3es distanced from their neighbors

to the south, "articularl& on the 5e& issues of Cuba, decriminali=ation of drugs, and the dis"ute o3er the Mal3inasHother#ise 5no#n as the Fal5land Islands, For Dashington, the conference #as the latest in se3eral &ears of di"lomatic re3erses highlighted b& the defeat of the 9,!,-"romoted Free %rade 2rea of the 2mericas (F%221 at the
Fourth !ummit of the 2mericas in Mar del Plata, 2rgentina, in )**I, %he most far-reaching de3elo"ment leading u" to the Cartagena summit #as the ne# hemis"heric configuration manifested b& the consolidation of organi=ations "romoting 4atin 2merican unit&, s"ecificall& the 7oli3arian 2lliance for the Peo"les of >ur 2merica (24721, the 9nion of !outh 2merican Nations (9N2!9R1, and more recentl& the Communit& of 4atin 2merican and Caribbean !tates (CE42C1, 2 lac5 of consensus "re3ented the summit from "roducing a final document, In the "re3ious summit in %rinidad in )**?, a ))-"age document #as signed b& onl& the host countr& for the same reason, >n that occasion, ho#e3er, %rinidadian "rime minister Patric5 Manning in his closing s"eech s"o5e o"timisticall& of Lthe more o"en and conciliator& "ositionM of the then recentl& elected 9,!, "resident 7arac5 >bama, #hich #ould assure Cubas "artici"ation in hemis"heric discussions in the near future,Z0R Follo#ing the Cartagena summit, Colombian "resident 'uan Manuel !antos "ointed out that the Ldirect and o"enM manner in #hich a #ide range of Lhot issuesM #ere discussed constituted a brea5through in inter-2merican relations, %he >bama administrations acce"tance of this st&le of debate re"resented a concession, albeit a relati3el& minor one, L@istoricall&, the summit agenda has been seen as dictated b& the 9nited !tates,M e/"lained the Christian !cience Monitor,Z)R %he ne#l& created organi=ations that e/clude the 9nited !tates #ere at

least "artiall& res"onsible for the change, L2472 has acted some#hat as a bloc #ithin 9N2!9R and CE42C and the resolutions and stands of all three organi=ations ha3e hardened the "ositions of 4atin 2merican go3ernments 3is-e-3is the 9nited !tates,M 7oli3ias 9N ambassador Rafael
2rchondo told me, CE42C, #hich #as founded in Caracas, :ene=uela, in Cecember, goes be&ond the confines of the !outh 2merican-based 9N2!9R b& bringing the Caribbean and Central 2merican nations into the organi=ational fold, Much of

the 9,!, mediaHand the foreign "olic& e/"erts the& BuoteHdismisses the im"ortance of these organi=ational de3elo"ments, :ene=uelan "resident @ugo ChA3e=, it is claimed, is ban5rolling all three organi=ations as 3enues for
grandstanding,ZER %his de"iction ignores 9N2!9Rs im"ressi3e trac5 record in conflict resolution follo#ing ram"ant "olitical 3iolence in 7oli3ia in )**X, Colombias militar& incursion in Ecuador in the same &ear, and the attem"ted Ecuadoran cou" in )*0*, In all three conflicts, the >2! #as left on the sidelines, More recentl&, %he Dall !treet 'ournal labeled CE42C LMr, ChA3e=s "art&,M %he "a"er Buoted Christo"her !abatini of the Council of the 2mericas, #ho called CE42C a forum for ChA3e= to

L"ontificate and fan anti-9,!, sentiment,M In the same article, economist 7oris !egura of Nomura @oldings stated
that Lin terms of #hat , , , ZCE42CR is going to achie3e, it #ill be 3er& little, because the region is di3ided,MZ.R 4atin 2mericas unified "ositions at the Cartagena summit "ut the lie to these statements, but the full im"act of the issues that are being raised b& these organi=ations is an o"en Buestion, 2fter all, the 9N General 2ssembl& has "assed near unanimous resolutions condemning the Cuban embargo o3er the last t#o decades #ithout tangible results, I as5ed :ene=uelas >2! re"resentati3e, Carmen :elAsBue=, one of her countr&s chief negotiators at Cartagena, #hether an&one is ta5ing the debate and infighting seriousl&, !he res"onded affirmati3el& "ointing out that the !ummit of the 2mericas is LDashingtons bab&,M Indeed, it #as an initiati3e of President 7ill Clinton, #ho in 0??. intended it to "ro3ide momentum for the F%22 "ro"osal, L2n& brea5do#n of the summit tradition,M :elAsBue= added, L#ill loo5 bad, "articularl& because the 9,!, boasts that 4atin 2merica is a safe "lace for democrac& and free of the head-on clashes seen else#here in the #orld,M :elAsBue= "ointed to additional e3idence of 9,!, a""rehension o3er the "ossibilit& that 4atin 2merican nations ma& distance themsel3es from their neighbor to the north, !he recalled that at the >2! General 2ssembl& in )**?, the 9nited !tates 3oted #ith the rest of 4atin 2merica in fa3or of Cubas readmission into the >2!, @o#e3er, it did so onl& out of fear of being isolated on the Cuban issue, and onl& if Cuba "romised to res"ect the human rights of its citi=ensHa condition, :elAsBue= said, that Lthe Cubans rightfull& considered humiliating and "redictabl& reFected,M %he 9,!, stratagem #as ris5&, %he mere a""earance of acBuiescence on the issue of Cuban membershi" into the >2! brought do#n the #rath of the 9,!, right, including Congressman Connie Mac5 (R-Fla,1, #ho called for defunding the organi=ation, %he Cuban issue again flared u" Fust t#o months

before the Cartagena summit, In a sur"rise mo3e, Ecuadoran "resident Rafael Correa called on the 2472 nations to bo&cott the conference if Cuba #ere not allo#ed to "artici"ate, %he call caught different actors b& sur"rise, In res"onse to the 9,!, 3eto on Cuban "artici"ation in the !ummit of the 2mericas on grounds of alleged human rights 3iolation, !antos tra3eled to @a3ana in an attem"t to sta3e off a bo&cott b& all 2472 nations, Cuba sur"rised some b& announcing its interest in attending the summit, 2fter some hesitation, 7oli3ia and :ene=uela decided against follo#ing Ecuadors lead, in large "art because the& #ere eager to maintain cordial relations #ith summit host Colombia, "articularl& in light of !antoss acti3ist role as conciliator on Cuba and other issues, according to 2rchondo, Correa, #hom the 9,!, !tate Ce"artment has ho"ed to rein in for some time, "ro3ed more intransigent than the alleged firebrand ChA3e=, #ho o"ted for a di"lomatic strateg& and a broad-based alliance,ZIR %he 2472 nations, along #ith 2rgentina and 9rugua&, refused

to sign an& document at Cartagena that failed to commit itself to Cuban "artici"ation at the ne/t summit to be held in Panama, !antos, for his "art, called the 9,!, "olic& to#ard Cuba LanachronisticM and Lineffecti3e,M and added that Cubas e/clusion in Panama #ould be Lunthin5able,M 2nother issue that "itted the countries of the south against those of the north #as the Mal3inas dis"ute, !ince the defeat of the 2rgentine in3asion of the Mal3inas in 0?X), Great 7ritain has beefed u" its militar& "resence on the islands, culminating this &ear in the alleged de"lo&ment of a nuclear submarine, #hile in recent &ears it has engaged in e/"lorator& offshore oil drilling in the area, %he >bama administration refuses to ta5e a stand on the issue, e3en to the e/tent of urging both sides to sit do#n and negotiate, as it had done u" until recentl&,Z+R In contrast, CE42Cs founding document, the LCeclaration of Caracas,M reFects the Lanachronistic colonial situation on 2merican soilM and a""lauds the Ldis"osition of the 2rgentine go3ernment to reach a "eaceful solution,M %he CE42C resolution reflects the more militant and acti3e role of the 2rgentine go3ernment of Cristina FernAnde= de Kirchner and the su""ort for its "osition b& nations that had turned their bac5s on 2rgentina at the time of the #ar, such as Chile and Colombia, FernAnde=, e3identl&
anno&ed at the Cartagena summits failure to arri3e at a consensus on the issue, left the conference earl&, Recentl& elected Guatemalan "resident >tto P<re= Molina s"rung another sur"rise shortl& before the summit #hen he attem"ted to secure Central 2merican su""ort for the decriminali=ation of illegal drugs, a "osition su""orted b& se3eral former 4atin 2merican "residents, 2lthough other 4atin 2merican go3ernments #ere not con3inced of the "ro"osals feasibilit&, the& ne3ertheless a""lauded Guatemalas initiati3e for starting a much-needed debate on the failed #ar on drugs, 7oli3ia, for instance, ho"es that the ne# o"en atmos"here on the to"ic #ill generate su""ort for its recent "ro"osal to ta5e cultural traditions into consideration in order to e/em"t certain nations from enforcing international agreements on "rohibiting coca leaf culti3ation, 2rchondo told me, !hortl& after Guatemala "ro"osed that illegal drugs be decriminali=ed, fl3aro Forero, a "rominent columnist for the centrist Colombian El Es"ectador, #rote, LIt is said that the 9nited !tates o"ened the door to discussion, but the realit& is that the& had no choice because the Central 2mericans #ere "ushing hard on the issue, 2fter , , , the o""osition to Cuba8s "artici"ation in the summit, the 2mericans #ere left #ithout 3eto "o#er,MZ(R From the 3ie#"oint of the more radical nations li5e :ene=uela, the consolidation of

2472, 9N2!9R, and CE42C forms "art of #hat could be called a L#ar of "osition,M in #hich ne# s"aces are occu"ied that undermine 9,!, hegemon& and fa3or the assertion of national so3ereignt& and other Fust causes,ZXR Man& in Dashington feel threatened b& these de3elo"ments, although the& ma& not admit
it, %his #as inad3ertentl& made clear b& Eliot Engel (C-N,G,1, chairman of the @ouse of Re"resentati3es !ubcommittee on the Destern @emis"here, in a s"eech to the >2! shortl& before the Cartagena summit, Engel harshl& attac5ed :ene=uela and 7oli3ia and denounced CE42C as a Lri3alM to the >2! that fails to L"romote unit& or coo"eration,MZ?R + e 'efiant positions on

specific iss&es from the conser"ati"e presi'ents of Colombia and Guatemala reflect Was ingtonCs #aning infl&ence in t e region ("articularl& in light of !antoss ho"e that the 9nited !tates #ill Buic5l& im"lement the recentl& a""ro3ed 9,!,-Colombia Free %rade 2greement1, In more general terms, the failure to "roduce a final document at Cartagena is a setbac5 for Dashington in t#o res"ects, First, it #ea5ens the >2!, #hich s"onsors the summits, thus creating a 3acuum that 9N2!9R and CE42C are in a "osition to fill, !econd, the lac5 of an agreement #as largel& the result of 4atin 2mericas resol3e to "ush for certain changes, >nl& im"ortant concessions b& Dashington can forestall an organi=ational shift in the hemis"here, a realit& that #ill thrust hard choices on Dashington in the
immediate future,

*ns&staina!le +ra'e Deficits ,NC

Hig tra'e 'eficits ma.e ot er aspects of *2(2 infl&ence in Latin America completely moot --- economic #ea.nesses 'erail egemonic efforts Carran6a/ E (Cr, Mario E,, 2ssociate Professor of Political !cience, %e/as 2 P M 9ni3ersit&Kings3ille, Ph,C,, 9ni3ersit& of Chicago, L42%IN 2MERIC2N PER!PEC%I:EJ MERC>!9R, %@E FREE %R2CE 2RE2 >F %@E 2MERIC2!, 2NC %@E F9%9RE >F 9,!, @EGEM>NG IN 42%IN 2MERIC2,M )( Fordham Int8l 4,', 0*)?, Februar& )**., le/is, %ashma1 2n alternati3e inter"retation is that although as&mmetr& is an essential characteristic of 9,!,-!outh 2merican relations, the dramatic rise in the relati3e "o#er of 7ra=il since the 0?(*s and the structural "roblems facing the 9,!, econom& ma5e it "ossible for MERC>!9R to narro# its current ga" in GCP #ith the 9 nited !tates in the ne/t decades, )* %he as&mmetric distribution of structural "o#er in fa3or of the 9nited !tates in the Destern hemis"here does not automaticall& translate into 9,!, hegemon&, Coerci3e leadershi" is not the same as hegemon& b& consent, )0 %he abilit& of the 9nited !tates to e/ercise hegemon& b& consent has been damaged b& the unfulfilled "romises of the neo-liberal reforms "romoted b& the Dashington Consensus in the 0??*s, >n the other hand, the relati3e decline of 9,!, hegemon& in the globali=ed "ost-Cold Dar international econom& is a serious structural constraint on the abilit& of the 9nited !tates to assert its authorit& o3er the rest of the Destern hemis"here in economic matters, des"ite the structural "o#er of its 9,!, [ 0* trillion econom&, )) %he 9nited !tates ma& be the Zb0*E(R #orld8s most "o#erful countr& in terms of militar& ca"abilities, @o#e3er, its economic #ea5nesses, including de"endence on foreign ca"ital in order to finance current account deficits, impair its a!ility to e@ercise egemony e3en in Latin America (its traditional s"here of influence1 thus o"ening u" a #indo# of
o""ortunit& for 4atin 2merican countries to ha3e inde"endent foreign economic "olicies,

*ns&staina!le A+F D!ama (ol"es

D!ama canCt 'o anyt ing a!o&t #aning *2(2 infl&ence in t e region (a!atini/ 14 (Christo"her, Editor in Chief of 2mericas guarterl& and !enior Cirector of Polic& at the 2mericas !ociet& and the Council of the 2mericas, LDI44 42%IN 2MERIC2 MI!! 9,!, @EGEM>NG6,M 'ournal of International 2ffairs, :olume ++, Issue ), !"ring )*0E, "g, 0-a:I, ProBuest, %ashma1 Man& sa# the election of an 2frican-2merican "resident as a #a& to restore 9,!, moral and "olitical standing in the hemis"here, @o#e3er, President 7arac5 >bama and his team found a changed hemis"here in #hich dis"utes #ith the gringos to the north #ere more than Fust an eas& #a& of scoring "o"ulist "oints, For the countries that made u" 2472, there #ere genuine "olic& dis"utes that challenged 9,!, interests be&ond ideolog&, Moreo3er, the region itself had become more di3erse, #ith com"eting and conflicting needs and interests from the mar5etfriendl& "olicies of Chile to the 5nee-Fer5 insecurit& of 2rgentina and the gro#ing di"lomatic asserti3eness of 7ra=il, 9ea'=&sting t e political image of t e *nited (tates #as not eno&g gi"en t e political an' i'eological s ifts t at a' starte' in 1008N the "o#er eBuation #ithin the hemis"here had shifted, D!amaCs promises are irrele"ant --- t e region is t&rning to t e East for assistance 9+/ 0 (%he Real %ruth, cites Miguel %in5er-!alas, "rofessor of 4atin 2merican histor& at Pomona College, L4atin 2merica 4oo5s East Dhere Coes %his 4ea3e the 9nited !tates6,M I-0*-*?, htt"J--realtruth,org-articles-*?*I*.-**.-americas,html, %ashma1 9nited !tates Daning Influence E3idence of diminishing 9,!, influence in 4atin 2merica became e3ident #ith its e/clusion from the Rio Grou" summit in )**X, %he "ur"ose of the annual meeting is to address regional issues im"acting 4atin 2merican and Caribbean countries, !ummit leaders in3ited Cuba, but e/cluded the 9nited !tates, Portugal and !"ain for the first time since the founding of the meeting, %he 9nited !tates ho"ed
to re5indle relations #ith man& !outh and Central 2merican nations at the fifth !ummit of the 2mericas held in 2"ril )**?, 2s E. leaders from the Caribbean and Central, !outh and North 2merica gathered to discuss the future of the region, 9,!, President 7arac5 >bama "romised a fresh a""roach to di"lomac& for the hemis"here in his o"ening

addressJ L%heres no senior "artner and Funior "artner in our relations, %heres sim"l& engagement based on mutual res"ect, and common interests, and shared 3alues, !o Im here to launch a ne# cha"ter of engagementcM Mr, >bama also e/tended an oli3e branch to longtime "olitical ri3al Cuba in ho"e of a Lne# beginning,M In doing so, the 9,!, "resident
endured criticism from socialist "residents @ugo ChA3e= of :ene=uela, and Caniel >rtega of Nicaragua, #ho deli3ered a fier& s"eech at the summit in #hich he condemned Dashingtons terroristic aggression in Central 2merica and its isolation of Cubas Communist go3ernment, Miguel %in5er-!alas, "rofessor of 4atin 2merican histor& at Pomona College in Claremont, Calif,, said that the

#aning influence of the 9,!, has recentl& begun to manifest itself, L%he last 0* &ears ha3e "roduced dramatic changes in 4atin 2merica,M he said, Land one of the most stri5ing is the loss of the 9nited !tates formerl& to#ering dominance in a #ide range of areasM (Christian !cience Monitor1, President >bama indicated a desire for a Lne# beginning,M but 4atin 2merican nations ma& alread& ha3e found a ne# !eginning;#it gro#ing s&perpo#ers of Asia2

*ns&staina!le A+F )lan (ol"es

9eta.ing egemonic control of Latin American is impossi!le &ncontrolla!le factors 'ictate t e f&t&re of Latin America Wee.s/ 11 (Gregor&, associate "rofessor of "olitical science and director of 4atin 2merican !tudies at the 9ni3ersit& of North Carolina at Charlotte, LCont blame 9,!, for the changes in 4atin 2mericaN 42%IN 2MERIC2,M %he Miami @erald, 0)-X-00, le/is, %ashma1 Con3entional #isdom holds that the 9nited !tates has been ignoring 4atin 2merica, thus "rom"ting go3ernments there to see5 ne# trading "artners, different in3estors, and fresh commitments, %he 9nited !tates has been too focused on the Middle East and the LDar on %error,M the argument goes, #hich has ser3ed to diminish our o#n influence, %his is re"eated endlessl&, 4i5e so man& commonl& acce"ted arguments, there is a factual nugget there, but o3erall it is mista5en, It is certainl& the case that the 9nited !tates "a&s relati3el& little attention to 4atin 2merica com"ared to the rest of the #orld, 7ut that has been true for much of the "ast )** &ears, and therefore does not adeBuatel& e/"lain recent change, Instead, there are international economic forces at #or5 that go far be&ond 9,!, "olic&, De cannot control them, and should not "retend that #e can, >ne of the main e/am"les anal&sts and "oliticians ali5e use is China, #hich has "ursued economic agreements across the region and is entering mar5ets once dominated b& the 9nited !tates, China is hungr& for ra# materials such as so&, #ood "ul", co""er, iron and, of course, oil, It is #illing to "a&
handsomel& for the commodities it #ants, Dith its 3ast reser3es, China is also eager to finance go3ernments loo5ing for loans, and there are al#a&s ta5ers, %hese economic relationshi"s ha3e nothing to do #ith the 9 nited !tates, and

#ould ha3e mo3ed for#ard no matter #hat the administrations of George D, 7ush or 7arac5 >bama did, %he 9nited !tates is not LlosingM 4atin 2merica to China, 2 second e/am"le is Colombia, #hich had to #ait si/ &ears for a free-trade agreement to be ratified b& the 9nited !tates, !u""osedl& Colombia became tired of #aiting and therefore established trade ties not onl& #ith China, but also #ith the Euro"ean 9nion, Canada, and much of !outh 2merica, For this argument to hold, #e #ould ha3e to belie3e that Colombia #ould not bother loo5ing to other "arts of the #orld if onl& it had a free-trade agreement #ith the 9nited !tates, %hat is hard to s#allo#, 'ust ta5e a loo5 at Chile and Me/ico, both of #hich ha3e those free-trade agreements &et simultaneousl& embrace economic globali=ation, Granted, 9,!, "residents ha3e
"ressing interests else#here, and onl& a tin& fraction of Congress "a&s much attention to the region, %hat is not ne#, Mean#hile,

4atin 2merican go3ernments are riding high on a commodit& boom and are tr&ing to get the best deals the& can, %he& #ould not change that strateg& based on an&thing the 9nited !tates did, %here are more economic actors at the table in 4atin 2merica than e3er before, and in that sense 9,!, influence is not as high as it once #as, + ere are man& 'ifferent reasons for t is H Chinas rise, liberali=ation of international trade, and the )**X crash among them H !&t fe# relate 'irectly to *2(2 policy to#ar' Latin America2 In other #ords, changing the "olic& #ill not change basic economic realities, *2(2 lea'ers ip is 'oome' in Latin America itCs on a long-term/ irre"ersi!le 'ecline Weis!rot/ 14 (Mar5, director of the Centre for Economic and Polic& Research, L4atin 2mericaJ %he End of an Era,M International 'ournal of @ealth !er3ices, :olume E+, Issue ., %ashma1
%he changes that ha3e ta5en "lace in 4atin 2merica in recent &ears are "art of an e"och-ma5ing transformation, %o borro# from the Cold Dar frame#or5 that still "re3ails in 9,!, foreign "olic& circlesJ #e ha3e #itnessed the colla"se of the 7erlin Dall, and the formation of ne#l& inde"endent states, 2 region that has been dominated b& the 9nited !tates for more than a

centur& has no#, for the most "art, bro5en a#a&, >f course there are still strong commercial, "olitical, cultural and e3en militar& tiesN but as in the states of the former !o3iet 9nion after 0??*, these do not ha3e the same economic or "olitical im"lications that the& had a decade or e3en a fe# &ears ago, %hese changes seem to ha3e been largel&
misunderstood W and 3astl& underestimated W across the "olitical s"ectrum, %he& are certainl& noticed, @ardl& a da& goes b& #ithout "rominent #arnings that the region W or at least a good "art of it W is on the road to L"o"ulistM ruin, or #orse, >n the right W including the 7ush administration W this "rocess is 3ie#ed through a Cold Dar "rism, a Castro-ChA3e=-E3o Morales a/is that "oses a strategic threat to the 9nited !tates, Imagined or im"lied lin5s to terrorism and the drug trade (little or no e3idence is "ro3ided1 are sometimes added for effect, as #hen the !tate Ce"artment cut off arms sales to :ene=uela on Ma& 0I for Llac5 of coo"erationM in fighting terrorism, %he liberal-center 3ie#s are less bellicose, but similarl& "essimistic about #hat is ha""ening in the region, Foreign 2ffairs has run three articles since the beginning of the &ear #arning of the dangers of 4atin 2mericas left-"o"ulist drift, as

#ell as sorr& state of 9,!,-4atin 2merican relations, %he ne#s re"orts, editorials, and o"-ed "ages of 2mericas maFor ne#s"a"ers mostl& carr& the same themes, 7ut from the "oint of 3ie# of the 3ast maForit& of the hemis"here, including "eo"le in the 9nited !tates, there is actuall& much to be o"timistic about, 2s French President 'acBues Chirac noted during a recent 3isit to !outh 2merica, $there is a strong mo3ement in fa3or of democrac& in 4atin 2merica, a mo3ement that is gro#ing,M @e added that the ne#l& elected leftist "residents cannot be cause for concern because the& #ere elected in free democratic elections, Furthermore, there is e3er& reason to belie3e that the changes of the last fe# &ears #ill not be re3ersed, and that the region #ill continue

in the direction of further economic and "olitical inde"endence , di3ersification of trade and finance, some
regional integration, and more successful macroeconomic "olicies, Not all of these economic "olicies and e/"eriments #ill succeed, but most im"ortantl& it a""ears 3er& "ossible that 4atin 2mericas long Buarter-centur& of economic failure #ill be re3ersed in the foreseeable future, and that its hundreds of millions of "oor "eo"le #ill be among the main beneficiaries, Causes and ConseBuencesJ 4atin 2mericas 4ong-%erm Economic Failure %he most im"ortant cause of 4atin 2mericas regional left#ard shift has been 3astl& misunderstoodJ it is the long-term economic gro#th failure in the region, %his is something that e3en most critics of LneoliberalismM W a one-#ord descri"tion of the last Buarter-centur&s economic reforms that is more common in 4atin 2merica than it is here W ha3e barel& mentioned, Most often #e read that these reforms ha3e been successful in "romoting gro#th, but that too man&

"eo"le ha3e been left behind and that "o3ert& and ineBualit& ha3e #orsened, leading to "olitical unrest, %his e/"lanation misses the most im"ortant, indeed historic change, that has ta5en "lace in 4atin 2merica o3er the last )I
&earsJ the colla"se of economic gro#th, If #e ignore income distribution and Fust loo5 at income "er "erson W the most basic measure of economic "rogress that economists use W the last Buarter-centur& has been a disaster, From 0?+* to 0?X*, "er ca"ita income in 4atin 2merica gre# b& X) "ercent, after adFusting for inflation, From 0?X* to )***, it gre# b& onl& ? "ercentN and for the first fi3e &ears of this decade ()***-)**I1, gro#th has totaled about . "ercent, %o find a gro#th "erformance in 4atin 2merica that is e3en close to failure of the last )I &ears, one has to go bac5 more than a centur&, and choose a )I-&ear "eriod that includes both Dorld Dar I and start of the Great Ce"ression, >f course, 4atin 2merica also has the #orst income ineBualit& in the #orld, %he contrast bet#een the lu/ur& condos in the 7arra da %iFuca neighborhood of Rio de 'aneiro and the fa3elas in the hillsides #here the "olice fear to tread, or bet#een the "oor barrios of Caracas and the #ealth& estates of 2lta Mira Fum"s out at &ou, 7ut ineBualit& in the region has not increased dramaticall& o3er the last )I &ears, It is the gro#th failure that has de"ri3ed a generation and a half of an& chance to im"ro3e its li3ing standards, 2nd #ithout gro#th, it is 3er& difficult to do an&thing about ineBualit& or "o3ert&, If the econom& is gro#ing ra"idl&, it is at least "ossible to redistribute some of the increases in income and #ealth to#ards those #ho need it most, Dhen it is not gro#ing, an& gains for the "oor must be ta5en from someone else W something that is difficult to do #ithout 3iolence, Po3ert& and ineBualit& are glaringl& ob3ious in 4atin 2merica, and ta5e the form of flesh and blood, street children and beggars W #hereas economic gro#th is an abstract conce"t that most "eo"le do not follo#, !o it is understandable that the main cause of 4atin 2mericas "olitical changes is o3erloo5ed, 7ut economic gro#th W #hich is "rimaril& defined b& increases in "roducti3it&, or out"ut "er hour of labor W is 3ital, es"eciall& o3er such a long "eriod of time, It is the main reason that #e li3e better than our grand"arents, Me/ico #ould ha3e a3erage li3ing standards at the le3el of !"ain toda& if its econom& had sim"l& continued to gro# at the rate that it gre# "rior to 0?X*, %here #ould be far fe#er Me/icans #illing to ta5e the ris5s of illegal immigration to the 9nited !tates, !ince these "re-0?X* gro#th rates #ere good but not s"ectacular (e,g, as com"ared to !outh Korea or %ai#an1, there is no ob3ious reason that the& shouldnt be the rele3ant le3el of com"arison, In Dashington, "olic&-ma5ers engage in a s"ecial form of denial about 4atin 2mericas economic failure, 2fter all, the& ha3e gotten most of #hat the& #antedJ go3ernments ha3e drasticall& reduced restrictions on international trade and on in3estment flo#s, Public enter"rises ha3e been "ri3ati=ed, e3en including social securit& s&stems in man& countries, Go3ernments are running tighter budgets and central ban5s are more inde"endent and tougher on inflation, %he state-led industrial "olicies and de3elo"ment "lanning of the "ast ha3e been abandoned, 7ut the cumulati3e results ha3e been an economic disaster, and so it is not sur"rising that "residential candidates #ho cam"aigned e/"licitl& against LneoliberalismM ha3e in recent &ears #on elections in 2rgentina, 7oli3ia, 7ra=il, Ecuador, 9rugua&, and :ene=uela, %he Buestion of #hich "olicies contributed to the man& and 3aried national economic failures is more com"le/, and the "ossible alternati3es for restoring gro#th and de3elo"ment W onl& no# beginning to be e/"lored W 3ar& greatl& b& countr&, 7ut it should be clear that #hat #e are no# #itnessing is a res"onse to this e"och-ma5ing economic failure, and W follo#ing a series of re3olts at the ballot bo/, and some in the streets W a number of go3ernments loo5ing for more "ractical and effecti3e #a&s to ma5e ca"italism #or5, %he long era of LneoliberalismM in 4atin 2merica has not &et come to an end W

that end is Fust beginning, for reasons discussed belo#, Dhat reall& defines this as a ne# era is that the influence of the 9nited !tates in a region that #as until 3er& recentl& its Lbac5&ardM has "lummeted so rapi'ly, drasticall&, an' "robabl& irre"ersi!ly/ t at t e c&rrent sit&ation is trul& &nprece'ente' in the modern istory of the hemis"here,

*ns&staina!le A+F Economic Infl&ence

C ina as ta.en t e lea' economically in Latin America (a!atini/ 14 (Christo"her, Editor in Chief of 2mericas guarterl& and !enior Cirector of Polic& at the 2mericas !ociet& and the Council of the 2mericas, LDI44 42%IN 2MERIC2 MI!! 9,!, @EGEM>NG6,M 'ournal of International 2ffairs, :olume ++, Issue ), !"ring )*0E, "g, 0-a:I, ProBuest, %ashma1 In t e economic and financial realm/ t e infl&ence of t e *nited (tates as also !ecome less significant but has far from disa""eared, %he "rimar& reason for this relati3e decline of influence is the rise of China and the economic gro#th of 7ra=il, China has become a regional commercial "resence and an im"licit, though "erha"s unintentional, "olitical counter#eight in the region, China8s torrid
economic gro#th o3er the last decade has had three effects, %he first is an increase in the "rices and demand for commodities such as iron ore, co""er, oil, so& beans, and meat "roduced b& countries such as 2rgentina, 7ra=il, Chile, Peru, and :ene=uela,0) %he resulting global commodities boom has fueled economic gro#th in these countries o3er the last se3en &ears, a3eraging o3er I "ercent a &ear, %he second effect has been the gro#ing im"ortance of Chinese mar5ets and in3estments to ra#-material e/"orting economies li5e 2rgentina,

7ra=il, Chile, Ecuador, Peru, and :ene=uela, %oda&, China is the number one trade "artner for Chile and 7ra=il and ran5s in the to" fi3e for Peru, 2rgentina, and :ene=uela - allo#ing all of these countries to di3ersif& their e/"orts a#a& from the 9nited !tates and thus lessening the s#a& of the 9,!, mar5et, China is also the fastest gro#ing source of foreign direct in3estment in countries as "oliticall& di3erse as 2rgentina, 7ra=il, Colombia, Ecuador, Me/ico, and Peru, %hird, due to the increased 3alue of e/"orts ("rinci"all&, though not onl&, to China1 and in3estment and commercial loans, the region is facing a fiscal bonus, %his bonus has allo#ed countries li5e Ecuador, 2rgentina, and :ene=uela to a3oid "ri3ate credit mar5ets in the Dest and has reduced the "o#er of 9,!, ban5s and the international financial institutions o3er so3ereign debt, much the #a& the& did in the 0?X*s,

*ns&staina!le A+F %ilitary Infl&ence

(&staining lea'ers ip "ia military po#er fails (a!atini/ 14 (Christo"her, Editor in Chief of 2mericas guarterl& and !enior Cirector of Polic& at the 2mericas !ociet& and the Council of the 2mericas, LDI44 42%IN 2MERIC2 MI!! 9,!, @EGEM>NG6,M 'ournal of International 2ffairs, :olume ++, Issue ), !"ring )*0E, "g, 0-a:I, ProBuest, %ashma1
9nderstanding the Realities of 9,!, Po#er %oda& in 4atin 2merica %o get a real measure of #here the 9nited !tates stands toda&, #e need to consider in #hat #a&s 9,!, "o#er has been e/ercised and has #or5ed in the Destern @emis"here, @istoricall&, 9,!, "o#er has come from three main sourcesJ militar&, economic and financial, and di"lomatic, and to those should be added the admittedl& 3ague factors of moral and as"irational "o#er, >f these three main sources of "o#er, the first is one of the least rele3ant toda&, %he

era in #hich the 9nited !tates could unilaterall& send in its marines to occu"& a countr& has ended, >ne need onl& see the fraught debate o3er actual 9,!, militar& in3ol3ement in Me/ico8s recent #ar on narcotraffic5ers to reali=e that militar& inter3ention (e3en at the in3itation of the local go3ernment1 in 4atin 2merican countries is conditioned on international and domestic "olitics and norms, Get e3en
during the era of 9,!, hegemon&, 4atin 2merican countries benefited from the umbrella of 9! securit&, %he 9nited !tates8 militar& dominance o3er the hemis"here had the benefit of "re3enting the need for strong national militaries that could th#art outside inter3ention (though too often those militaries di3erted their attentions to meddling in domestic "olitics and "ursuing "olitical o""onents1, 4atin 2merican go3ernments did not need to #orr& about fending e/tra-hemis"heric threats than5s to 9,!, interests, and armed forces #ith limited offensi3e ca"abilities also reduced the ris5 of border conflicts, 2t the same time, 9,!, su""ort through securit& and technical coo"eration has hel"ed go3ernments in Colombia, Me/ico, and Central 2merica in their battles #ith organi=ed narcotraffic5ers and criminal grou"s,

Dt er Latin American co&ntries pro"e *( s&pporte' ins&rgencies fail Cran'all 1, (Russell Crandall W associate "rofessor of International Politics at Ca3ison College -- Princi"al Cirector for the Destern @emis"here at the 9,!, Ce"artment of Cefense in )**? and Cirector for 2ndean 2ffairs at the National !ecurit& Council in )*0*-00 -- $2 @ot Cold Dar$ -- No3ember E*th, )*0) ###E,da3idson,edu-cms-Cocuments-2cademics-Ce"artments-Political_)*!cience-@ot _)*Cold_)*Dar,"df1 !M ***NoteF Cran'all is citing istorian Hal Bran's G)rofessor of )&!lic )olicy an' History at D&.e3 7rands concludes that, #hile often effecti3e in hel"ing defeat the m&riad Mar/ist insurgencies in the region, the 9!-su""orted counter-insurgencies "ro3ed detrimental to democratic reform and hel"ed "ro3o5e an ideological and di"lomatic bac5lash that damaged Dashingtons standing in the region, 7rands might ha3e added that the e/tent to #hich a 9!-manufactured counter-insurgenc& ^blo#bac5 occurred de"ended on each case at hand, >ne could ma5e a reasonable argument that 9! counterinsurgenc& training and su""ort in Guatemala in the 0?+*s and 0?(*s had a far more morall& and strategicall& dubious outcome than, for e/am"le, similar anti-insurgent training and assistance in Colombia, 7oli3ia, or El !al3ador during roughl& the same &ears, %ilitary po#er 'oesnCt 'etermine t e effecti"eness of *2(2 infl&ence in t e region --- an' if it 'i'/ egemony is 'eclining any#ays Carran6a/ E (Cr, Mario E,, 2ssociate Professor of Political !cience, %e/as 2 P M 9ni3ersit&Kings3ille, Ph,C,, 9ni3ersit& of Chicago, L42%IN 2MERIC2N PER!PEC%I:EJ MERC>!9R, %@E FREE %R2CE 2RE2 >F %@E 2MERIC2!, 2NC %@E F9%9RE >F 9,!, @EGEM>NG IN 42%IN 2MERIC2,M )( Fordham Int8l 4,', 0*)?, Februar& )**., le/is, %ashma1 Part of the ambiguit& surrounding the issue of 9,!, hegemon& in 4atin 2merica stems from the use of different definitions of international hegemon& in contem"orar& literature, Realist scholars tend to eBuate hegemon& #ith militar& "o#er, For e/am"le, Dilliam Dohlforth argues that the ga"
bet#een 9,!, militar& ca"abilities and its "otential com"etitors is so #ide that there is no danger of $hegemonic ri3alr&$ (hegemonic #ars1 and $the onl& o"tions a3ailable to second-tier states Zsuch as 7ra=ilR are to band#agon #ith the "olar "o#er Zthe 9nited !tatesR ,,, or at least to ta5e no action that could incur its focused enmit&,$ XI 2 better definition of hegemon& is the one

"ro3ided b& 2ntonio Gramsci, #hich combines the conce"ts of coercion (militar& force1 and consent

(ideological leadershi"1 as in the often Buoted eBuationJ $!tate O "olitical societ& Y ci3il societ&, in other #ords hegemon& "rotected b& the armor of coercion,$ X+ For Gramsci, hegemon& cannot be based onl& on sheer force, If one a""lies Gramsci8s definition of hegemon& to 9nited !tates-4atin 2merican relations, it becomes clear that the 7ush administration has failed to e/ercise ideological leadershi" in the F%22 negotiations, Curing 7ush8s administration, there has been a structural shift

in the balance bet#een force and consent in the e/ercise of 9,!, hegemon&, %he 7ush administration has a tendenc& to use force #ithout (or #ith 3er& little1 consent, as in the case of the 9,!,8 in3asion of IraB, #hich #as strongl& o""osed in Euro"e and 4atin 2merica, X( Robert ]oellic58s strong-arms trade strateg& after the Cancun debacle fits nicel& in George D, 7ush8s go-it-alone foreign "olic& #hich is un#ittingl& encouraging the emergence of anti-9,!, coalitions , such as the grou" of Zb0*I?R t#ent&-t#o de3elo"ing nations at Cancun ($G-))$1 that see5 to redefine the rules of the game of globali=ation, E3en if one uses a realist, narro# definition of hegemon& as $the "o#er of one state to enforce its #ill o3er others,$ XX the Miami %rade Ministerial Meeting sho#s that *2(2 egemony in Latin America is 'eclining , 7ra=il, su""orted b& most
4atin 2merican trade ministers, managed to bloc5 the 9,!, attem"t to ha3e its #a& on the dee" integration agenda #ithout ma5ing concessions regarding agricultural subsidies, X? >n the other hand, an F%22 a la carte gi3es the 9nited !tates enough room to e/ercise its considerable structural "o#er o3er smaller 4atin 2merican countries, such as Panama and the Cominican Re"ublic, ?*

Alliance DA Generic *ni1&eness Wall

9egional organi6ations are on t e rise #it t e 'ecline of t e *( in Latin America Bran' et al 1,, 2le/ander 7rand is 4ecturer and Post-Coc Researcher at the Ce"artment of

Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Main=, !usan McE#en-Fial is 4ecturer at the Ce"artment of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Main=, Dolfgang Muno is :isiting Professor of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Erfurt, 2ndrea Ribeiro @offmann is 4ecturer at the Dill& 7randt !chool of Public Polic&, 9ni3ersit& of Erfurt, (*.-)*0), L7RICs and 9,!, @egemon&J %heoretical ReVections on !hifting Po#er Patterns and Em"irical E3idence from 4atin 2mericaM,Main= Pa"ers on International and Euro"ean Politics (MPIEP1 Pa"er No, ., htt"J--international,"olitics,uni-main=,de-files-)*0)-0*-m"ie"*.,"df,FF1
%he main institutional arena in 4atin 2merica is the >rgani=ation of 2merican !tates (>2!1, S founded in 0?.X, %he dri3ing force behind the >2! #as and still is the 9,!, In com"arison, S se3eral institutional inno3ations li5e %ercos&r/

*NA(*9/ ALBA/ an' =&st recently CELAC, areS efforts of 4atin 2merican emanci"ation and balancing, 2s Rahl ]ibechi, a Fournalist of Me/icosS centre-left 4a 'ornada ne#s"a"er said in this regardJ M%he creation of the Communit& of 4atinS 2merican and Caribbean !tates is "art of a global and continental shift, characterised b& theS 'ecline of *2(2 egemony and the rise of a grou" of regional !locs that form "art of the ne#S global balanceM (]ibechi )*0*1,S 2 more recent institutional
inno3ation on behalf of the 9,!, #ith the aim to "romote hemis"heric coo"eration #as the creation of the !ummit of the 2mericas, meetings of the head ofS states and go3ernments of all democratic countries of the hemis"here, therefore Cuba #as and S is e/cluded, %he Trst summit, held 0??. in Miami, #as initiated b& 7ill Clinton, %he aim of S the summit #as to "romote democrac& and mar5ets, es"eciall& the F%22, 2s mentioned earlier,S at the Fourth !ummit in Mar del Plata, the F%22 "racticall& died, %he ne/t summit in )**? inS %rinidad and %obago #as used b& 7arac5 >bama to start a charm offensi3e, declaring a ne# S era of good neighborhood "olic&, 2lthough this #as #idel& "ercei3ed as "ositi3e b& the media, S "eo"le and go3ernments in 4atin 2merica, disa""ointment soon arose because actions did notS follo# #ords (Gandasegui )*001, %he last summit in Cartagena, Colombia, in 2"ril )*0) clearl&S sho#ed this disa""ointment, !e3eral

4atin 2merican states critici=ed the 9,!, es"eciall& for theS Cuban "olic& and for the #ar on drugs, the "residents of :ene=uela, Ecuador and Nicaragua
didS not "artici"ate, Ecuador ofTciall& in order to "rotest against the e/clusion of Cuba, %he 9,!, S insisted on e/cluding Cuba also from the ne/t summit, u"holding the democrac& clause of theS meeting, %his dissent inhibited a Tnal declaration, S 2side from this initiati3e, 9,!, institutional inno3ations in the hemis"here ha3e been limited S to the abo3e mentioned bilateral trade treaties and the securit& initiati3es, %his might ha3e S "ro3ided both China and 7ra=il #ith the o""ortunit& to strengthen ties #ith 4atin 2mericanS countries 3is-e-3is the 9,!,

Alliance DA Generic Lin. Wall

Decline in *( lea'ers ip in Latin America allo#s for t e formation of alliances ( ifter/ 8 :ice President for Polic&, Inter-2merican Cialogue in Dashington, 2dFunct Professor of 4atin 2merican !tudies at Georgeto#n 9ni3ersit&8s !chool of Foreign !er3ice, member of the Council on Foreign Relations (Michael, LNo Da& to Influence 4atin 2merica, %he Dashington Post, >ctober ?th, )**X, 4e/isNe/is1 --@24
%he >ct, + editorial $2 Choice for 4atin 2merica$ described the regional situation in e/cessi3el& star5 terms, leading to a misguided "olic& "rescri"tion, 4atin 2merica is indeed going through "rofound changes, some of #hich are more

salutar& than others, Dhile the erosion of democratic chec5s and balances is troubling, the gro#ing "artici"ation of oncemarginali=ed grou"s in the "olitical "rocess in :ene=uela, 7oli3ia and Ecuador is a #elcome trend, It is im"ortant not to e/aggerate :ene=uelan President @ugo Chij3e=8s s#a& in the region, %he editorial8s assertion that Ecuador, Nicaragua, 7oli3ia and Cuba are $satellites$ of Mr, Chij3e= and that $@onduras and Paragua& ma& be s#inging his #a&$ o3erstated Mr, Chij3e=8s influence and glossed o3er fundamental differences among these countries, 2s 9,!, influence declines, 4atin 2merican nations

are understandabl& di3ersif&ing their alliances and Foc5e&ing to ad3ance their interests,@o#e3er tem"ting it might be for Dashington to cut off trade "references and aid to go3ernments that $dismantle democratic institutions and attac5 9,!, interests,$ it is hard to see ho# such "uniti3e measures #ould im"ro3e 9,!, standing in 4atin 2merica, >n the contrar&, b& alienating the 9nited !tates from
regional allies such as 7ra=il and Chile #hile fostering anti-2merican sentiment among the hundreds of thousands #ho #ould lose their li3elihoods, these mo3es #ould undermine 9,!, interests, 2s "resident, 7arac5 >bama or 'ohn McCain #ill

ho"efull& tr& to re"air 9,!, relations #ith 4atin 2merica, but the choice is not bet#een ignoring the region and disci"lining go3ernments that resist 9,!, "olicies , @a""il&, there is a middle ground,
%he 9nited !tates can hel" sha"e an en3ironment more congenial to its interests -- but onl& if it resists m&o"ic, self-defeating measures and sta&s engaged e3en in unfriendl& "laces,

Alliance DA Generic LA (ta!ility Impact

9egional partners ips are t e !est #ay to co&nter pro!lems in t e region Al"arao 14 (4i=a %orres 2l3arado -- Ci"lomatic Courier for the International Relations and !ecurit& Net#or5 $%he 9! Must Re-e3aluate its Foreign Polic& in 4atin 2merica$ Ma& E0st )*0E ###,isn,eth=,ch-Cigital-4ibrar&-2rticles-Cetail-6idO0+.E(*PlngOen1 !M @istoricall&, relations bet#een 4atin 2merica and the 9nited !tates ha3e been com"le/ , &et constantl& e3ol3ing, Curing the 0?+*s, "olitical changes and social mo3ements challenged the structural basis of 9nited !tates hegemon& in
the hemis"here, %he election of !al3ador 2llende in Chile, the arri3al of Peronism in 2rgentina, and the de3elo"ment of relations bet#een nationalist go3ernments of the time such as Peru, 7oli3ia, and Me/ico became an obstacle for the 9nited !tates, Dashington re-established its "o#er in the 0?(*s b& re3o5ing an& "olic& that interfered #ith 9,!, interests in the region b& su""orting militar& figures, %he 9nited !tates needed to su""ress e3er& nationalist, socialist democratic and "o"ular mo3ement, o3er fears of the s"read of Communism in its bac5&ard, Cictatorshi"s secured financial su""ort through eas& access to loans from the Dorld 7an5 and the International Monetar& Fund, %he economic su""ort from 9nited !tates for certain lo&al grou"s brought great ineBualities, unem"lo&ment, and "o3ert& in the region, Curing the 0?X*s social u"hea3als occurred against Pinochets militar& dictatorshi" in Chile and 2rgentinas militar& Funta, Citi=ens demanded free elections and social im"ro3ements, such as the transition to ci3ilian rule and direct "o"ular elections, In both cases, amid economic turmoil, the militar& rulers #ere #illing to cede some "o#er to semi-democratic regimes controlled b& elites in e/change for the irre3ersibilit& of "ri3ati=ation and res"ect for the status of the militar&, %he su"remac& of the 9nited !tates dee"ened in the 0??*s, and neoliberal "olicies fa3ored cor"orations at the e/"ense of disad3antaged "o"ulations, %he colla"se of the !o3iet 9nion dee"ened the economic crisis in Cuba, #hich reduced its su""ort for leftist mo3ements in 4atin 2merica, In 2rgentina, President Carlos Menem "ri3ati=ed "ublic enter"rises, #hile in 7ra=il, President Fernando @enriBue Cardoso "ri3ati=ed state com"anies that generated significant re3enue for the countr&, President Carlos !alinas in Me/ico "ri3ati=ed 00* enter"rises and signed the North 2merican Free %rade 2greement (N2F%21 #ith the 9nited !tates, #hereb& the 9,!, #as allo#ed access to ra# materials and other ser3ices at 3er& lo# "rices, %hese "olicies "ro3o5ed action from social mo3ements aligned #ith the "oor, %he financial crisis in 2rgentina led to the o3erthro# of 2ntonio Ce la Rua, In 7oli3ia, insurrections demanded the remo3al of !anche= de 4o=ada, a staunch follo#er of Dashingtons "olicies, In Ecuador, u"risings "re3ented the "ri3ati=ation of oil and gas industries, In 7ra=il, the "easant mo3ement led to the election of s&ndical leader 4ula Ca !il3a as President, In :ene=uela, 9,!, efforts to destabili=e the go3ernment of @ugo Cha3e= #ere unsuccessful and instead strengthened the morale of leftist mo3ements across the region, !ubseBuentl&, regional leaders either nationali=ed industries or bro5e agreements #ith international oil cor"orations or others re3ol3ing around natural resources, as occurred in 7oli3ia #ith the gas com"anies and in :ene=uela #ith the oil com"an&, 2s these social mo3ements found solidarit&, 9,!, influence #as #ea5ened, None of the "romises of better standards of li3ing from neo-liberal "olicies had materiali=ed, and free mar5et "olicies had ban5ru"ted farmers, Ceregulation destro&ed the ban5s, and the middle class lost their sa3ings, 2t the hemis"heric le3el, the 9,!,s "ro"osal to remo3e barriers to trade through the Free %rade 2rea of the 2mericas (F%221 #as subseBuentl& reFected b& :ene=uela, Ecuador, 7oli3ia, 2rgentina, and 7ra=il in the mid-)***s, !ubseBuentl&, 2472 (7oli3arian 2lliance for the 2mericas1 #as born as a counter"art to the F%22, changing the d&namics in the hemis"here, %he 2lliance "osed as a ne# model, #ith the "ur"ose being international coo"eration based on the idea of social and economic integration of 4atin 2merica and the Caribbean countries,

China a""eared as an alternati3e mar5et for the sale of ra# materials from 4atin 2merica, reducing de"endence on 9,!, mar5ets, Failed attem"ts b& the 9nited !tates to destabili=e Cha3e=s administration

radicali=ed the :ene=uelan go3ernment8s "osition, #hich "ri3ileged sub-regional energ& agreements and bro5e contracts #ith 2merican oil com"anies as the decade "rogressed, :ene=uela became an im"ortant counter#eight to the 9nited !tates, not onl& for its abilit& to "ro3ide an alternati3e to 9,!, "olicies in the region, but also because oil re3enues had enabled the countr& ta5e Cubas "lace in financing an anti-im"erialist crusade across the continent, Ironicall&, oil "rices rose as a result of increased demand caused b& the IraB #ar, further hel"ing :ene=uela in this mission and #ea5ening the 9,!,s influence in the Destern @emis"here as it #as focused its efforts on dual #ar fronts on the other side of the globe, 2lthough there has been a decline in 9,!,

influence in the region, its "resence is still there, In :ene=uela, for e/am"le, 9,!, oil com"anies ha3e seen their
actions limited, &et the& still o"erate there, %he 9nited !tates is :ene=uelas to" commercial "artner, as :ene=uela su""lies 0) "ercent of 9,!, oil im"orts, Relations bet#een the 9nited !tates and 4atin 2merica ha3e e/"erienced

c&clical u"s and do#ns, Geogra"hicall&, the 9nited !tates and 4atin 2merica are lin5ed and ha3e a natural shared mar5et,
so there #ill al#a&s be a relationshi" of one sort or another, %he 9nited !tates #ill continue to see5 to e/ert its influence o3er the region, #hether through future "lans for the "lacement of militar& bases or the "romotion of bilateral trade agreements, 4eftist go3ernments #ill ha3e to address challenges such as those caused b& social di3isions and economic ineBualit&, %he& #ill li5el& continue to focus on im"lementing their leftist discourse, "articularl& in the #a5e of :ene=uelan President @ugo Cha3e=s death, @o#e3er, it is im"ortant to consider that neoliberal "hiloso"hies are also still "er3asi3e in man& countries of 4atin 2merica, %his is an ad3antage for the 9nited !tates, gi3ing it an o""ortunit& to "ush for further "ri3ati=ation, but 4atin 2merican leftist mo3ements should e3aluate themsel3es and ta5e actions to if the& are to a3oid a return of neoliberal "olicies of the 0??*s, 2ll that said, ho#

can the 9nited !tates im"ro3e its foreign "olic& to#ards 4atin 2merica6 %here are man& "roblems in the region that should be faced together, 2cce"ting this realit& is the beginning to im"ro3ing relations, %ransnational organi=ed crime, drug traffic5ing, and immigration "roblems are #orth ma5ing Foint efforts to resol3e, %he 9,!, should encourage the strengthening of "olitical and economic ties in the 2mericas as #ell as "romoting com"liance of international

commitments as a sign of #illingness to im"ro3e relations, %here are man& hemis"heric con3entions that
"ro3ide the legal frame#or5 to begin to #or5 together against negati3e outcomes, 2n e/am"le is the Ceclaration on !ecurit& in the 2mericas signed b& the countries of the hemis"here in )**E, %his document describes the ne# conce"t of multidimensional securit&, and incor"orates as ne# threats issues such as terrorism, drug traffic5ing and organi=ed crime, en3ironmental degradation, natural resource and food scarcit&, and uncontrolled "o"ulation gro#th and migration, %he 9nited !tates should ta5e

acti3e "art in establishing institutional net#or5s through #hich "olicies can be coordinated, and through these "romote the e/"ansion of em"lo&ment o""ortunities for the "o"ulation, stimulate fair trade agreements, and encourage the "rotection of the hemis"here against drug traffic5ing and organi=ed crime, %hese are all "ro"osals that #ould certainl& hel" to create better relations bet#een the states of the Destern @emis"here, Relations bet#een the 9nited !tates and 4atin 2merica are com"le/ and changing, If the& are based on coo"eration, #ith res"ect to the "rinci"les of self-determination and non-inter3ention, the& can become stronger, 2s such, the 9,!, must be #illing to re-e3aluate its foreign "olic& and "ers"ecti3es to#ard the rest of the Destern @emis"here, + at sol"es glo!al #arfare 9oc lin/ 0E Z'ames Francis, Professor of Political !cience at >5anagan 9, College, Discovering the Americas: The Evolution of Canadian Foreign Policy Towards Latin America , 0E*-0E0, Da5e Earl& 7ird FileR
Dhile there #ere economic moti3ations for Canadian "olic& in Central 2merica, securit& considerations #ere "erha"s more im"ortant, Canada "ossessed an interest in "romoting stabilit& in the face of a "otential decline of 9,!, hegemon& in the 2mericas, Perce"tions of declining 9,!, influence in the region W #hich had some credibilit& in 0?(?-0?X. due to the #ildl& ineBuitable di3isions of #ealth in some 9,!, client states in 4atin 2merica, in addition to "olitical re"ression, underde3elo"ment, mounting e/ternal debt, anti-2merican sentiment "roduced b& decades of subFugation to 9,!, strategic and economic interests, and so on W #ere lin5ed to the "ros"ect of e/"losi3e e3ents occurring in the hemis"here, @ence, the Central 2merican imbroglio #as 3ie#ed as a fuse #hich could ignite a catacl&smic "rocess throughout the region, 2nal&sts at the time #orried that in a #orstcase scenario, instabilit& created b& a regional #ar , beginning in Central 2merica and s"reading else#here in

4atin 2merica, might "reoccu"& Dashington to the e/tent that the 9nited !tates #ould be unable to "erform adeBuatel& its im"ortant hegemonic role in the international arena W a concern e/"ressed b& the director of research for Canadas !tanding Committee Re"ort on Central 2merica, It #as feared that s&c a pre'icament co&l' generate increase' global instability an' "erha"s e3en a hegemonic war, %his is one of the moti3ations #hich
led Canada to become in3ol3ed in efforts at regional conflict resolution, such as Contadora, as #ill be discussed in the ne/t cha"ter,

Alliance DA ALBA 1NC

Decline of *2(2 infl&ence in Latin America promotes t e 'e"elopment of ne# organi6ations --- specifically ALBA (a!atini/ 14 (Christo"her, Editor in Chief of 2mericas guarterl& and !enior Cirector of Polic& at the 2mericas !ociet& and the Council of the 2mericas, LDI44 42%IN 2MERIC2 MI!! 9,!, @EGEM>NG6,M 'ournal of International 2ffairs, :olume ++, Issue ), !"ring )*0E, "g, 0-a:I, ProBuest, %ashma1 %he 9nited !tates8 reduced abilit& to unilaterall& get #hat it #ants in the hemis"here is alread& sha"ing 4atin 2merican countries8 calculations of domestic and foreign "olicies and the formation of multilateral alliances, %he last ten &ears ha3e #itnessed the emergence of regional and multilateral "o#ers see5ing to assert regional di"lomatic "o#er, if not to s"ecificall& reduce the role of the 9 nited !tates in intra-regional di"lomac&, %he most ob3ious and "ointed e/am"le is the 7oli3arian 2lliance for the Peo"les of our 2mericas (24721 formed b& former President of :ene=uela @ugo Cha3e=, #hich includes 7oli3ia, Cuba, Ecuador, Nicaragua, and :ene=uela among others in a bloc 3o#ed to o""ose a no#-defunct "lan to establish a hemis"here-#ide free-trade agreement, 2t the same time, as its econom& rebounded Buic5l& and
strongl& from the )**( global financial crisis until )*0), 7ra=il has sought a greater regional and e3en global role, e/erting its ne#found di"lomatic and economic muscle, often as an alternati3e to 9,!, influence in matters as di3erse as the threat of "olitical u"hea3al in :ene=uela to the 9N dri3e to sanction Iran for its nuclear ambitions,E

+ atCs .ey to a transition a#ay from neoli!eralism Cole/ 11 (Ken, @onorar& Research Fello#, International Institute for the !tud& of Cuba at 4ondon Metro"olitan 9ni3ersit&, LProgress into the )0st Centur&J the 7oli3arian 2lliance for the Peo"les of >ur 2merica,M International 'ournal of Cuban !tudies, :olume E, Issues ) P E, !ummer-2utumn )*00, "g, 00+, %ashma1 %he "olitical and ideological sta5es could not be higher, %he challenge is not sim"l& to institutionall& challenge 9nited !tates8 mar5et hegemon& and com"etiti3e ad3antage, as #ith 9N2!9R, %he resol3e is to eliminate the ca"italist organisation of social e/istence itself, %he 7oli3arian 2lliance for the Peo"les of >ur 2merica is a union of "oor countries challenging the o""ressi3e conseBuences of (uneBual1 mar5et e/change and economic e/"loitation, %he richer countries that ha3e s"earheaded 9N2!9R (such as 7ra=il and 2rgentina1,
and are "oliticall&, ideologicall& and culturall& bonded to a ca"italist social consciousness, are unli5el& to become full members of 2472 an& time soon (although, no doubt, #ill continue to e/"edientl& ta5e economic ad3antage of 2472 initiati3es1, %he continental reach of 2472 e/tends be&ond the eight member states, and additionall& includes 2rgentina, 7ra=il, 7eli=e, Grenada, Montserrat, %ur5s and Caicos Islands, the 7ahamas, 7ritish :irgin Islands, Gu&ana, !t Kitts and Ne3is, !uriname, 'amaica, !aint 4ucia, Colombia, Paragua& and 9rugua&, %he 2472 agenda contains a hemis"herical affiliation to address common regional needs forJ oil-"etroleum, information and the media, instruction and education, health, natural gas, s"ort, culture, etc, (see Cole )**X1, :arious institutional com"onents of the 2472 "rocess regionall& addressJ "etroleum (PE%R>!9R1N media (%E4E!9R1N education (9ni3ersidad del !ur1N international credit (the 2472 7an51N a regional seed ban5 and 2gro-Ecolog& !chool organised b& 7ra=il8s 4andless Dor5ers Mo3ementN regional health initiati3es, such as Cuba8s >"eracion Milagro to tac5le o"hthalmic "roblems, and 4atin 2merican medical schools in @a3ana and Caracas, and a "lanned regional natural gas distribution s&stem (Gasducto del !ur1, 2472 is a region-#ide, "rogressi3e, e3olutionar& initiati3e, to direct and harness the global di3ision of

labour of the t#ent&-first centur& to enhance human "otentials and indi3iduals8 #ell-being, e@tirpating t e neoli!eral/ capitalist pro=ect , #hich is financial globalisation, Public "olic& addressing human needs is intended to usur" free-mar5et e/change for "rofit, to the ad3antage of los humildes--the "oor and disad3antaged masses of 4atin 2merica -->ur 2merica (see Cole )*0*a, b1J hence, the inclusion of non-member 4atin 2merican countries to begin to la& the foundations of a longterm, regional, e3olutionar& "rocess to effect "rogress, *nc ec.e' neoli!eral e@pansions ris.s e@tinction N anenge > Z'&tte Masters ` 9 !outh 2frica, LEC>FEMIN!MJ %>D2RC! IN%EGR2%ING %@E C>NCERN! >F D>MEN, P>>R PE>P4E 2NC N2%9RE IN%> CE:E4>PMEN%R

2lthough the #orld on a3erage generates more and more #ealth, the riches do not a""ear to $tric5le do#n$ to the "oor and im"ro3e their material #ell-being, Instead, "o3ert& and economic ineBualit& is gro#ing, Ces"ite the e/istence of de3elo"ment aid for more than half a centur&, the %hird Dorld seems not to be $catching u"$ #ith the First Dorld, Instead, militarism, dictatorshi" and human re"ression is multi"lied , !ince the mid 0?(*, the critiBue of global economic acti3ities has intensified due to the escalating deterioration of the natural en3ironment, Moderni=ation, industrialisation and its economic acti3ities ha3e been directl& lin5ed to increased scarcit& of natural resources and generation of "ollution, #hich increases global tem"eratures and degrades soils, lands, #ater, forests and air , %he latter threat is of great significance, because #ithout a health& en3ironment human beings and animals #ill not be able to sur3i3e, Most "eo"le belie3ed that moderni=ation of the #orld #ould im"ro3e material #ell-being for all, @o#e3er, faced #ith its negati3e side effects and the real threat of e/tinction, one must conclude that some#here along the #a& $"rogress$ #ent astra&, Instead of material "lent&, economic de3elo"ment generated a 3iolent, unhealth& and uneBual #orld, It is a #orld #here a small minorit& li3e in material lu/ur&, #hile millions of "eo"le li3e in miser&, %hese "oor "eo"le are marginali=ed b& the global economic s&stem, %he& are forced to sur3i3e from degraded en3ironmentsN the& li3e #ithout "ersonal or social securit&N the&
%here is toda& an increasing critiBue of economic de3elo"ment, #hether it ta5es "lace in the North or in the !outh, li3e in abFect "o3ert&, #ith hunger, malnutrition and sic5nessN and the& ha3e no "ossibilit& to s"ea5 u" for themsel3es and demand a fair share of the #orld8s resources, %he maForit& of these "eo"le are #omen, children, traditional "eo"les, tribal "eo"les, "eo"le of colour and materiall& "oor "eo"le (called #omen and >thers1, %he& are,

together #ith nature, dominated b& the

global s&stem of economic de3elo"ment im"osed b& the North, It is this scenario, #hich is the subFect of the
dissertation, %he o3erall aim is conseBuentl& to discuss the unFustified domination of #omen, >thers and nature and to sho# ho# the domination of #omen and >thers is interconnected #ith the domination of nature , 2 good "lace to start a discussion about domination of #omen, >thers and nature is to disclose ho# the& dis"ro"ortionatel& must carr& the negati3e effects from global economic de3elo"ment, %he belo# discussion is therefore meant to gi3e an idea of the $fli"-side$ of modernisation, It gi3es a gloom& "icture of #hat $"rogress$ and its focus on economic gro#th has meant for #omen, "oor "eo"le and the natural en3ironment, %he 3arious com"le/ and inter-connected, negati3e im"acts ha3e been ordered into four crises, %he categori=ation is ins"ired b& Paul E5ins and his 0??) boo5 $2 ne# #orld orderN grassroots mo3ements for global change$, In it, E5ins argues that humanit& is faced #ith four interloc5ed crises of un"recedented magnitude, %hese

crises ha3e the "otential to destro& #hole ecos&stems and to e/tinct the human race, %he first crisis is the s"read of nuclear and other #ea"ons of mass destruction , together #ith the high le3el of militar& s"ending, %he second crisis is the increasing number of "eo"le afflicted #ith hunger and "o3ert&, %he third crisis is the en3ironmental degradation, Pollution, destruction of ecos&stems and e/tinction of s"ecies are increasing at such a rate that the bios"here is under threat , %he fourth crisis is re"ression and denial of fundamental human rights b& go3ernments, #hich "re3ents "eo"le from de3elo"ing their
"otential, It is highl& li5el& that one ma& add more crises to these four, or categori=e them differentl&, ho#e3er, E5ins8s di3ision is suitable for the "resent "ur"ose, (E5ins 0??)J 01,

Alliance DA ALBA Lin. Wall

Lac. of *2(2 egemony in t e region cataly6es t e 'e"elopment of ALBA Cran'all/ 11 (Russell, 2ssociate Professor of Political !cience at Ca3dison College, L%he Post2merican @emis"hereJ Po#er and Politics in an 2utonomous 4atin 2merica,M Foreign 2ffairs, :olume ?*, Issue E, Ma&-'une )*00, "g, XE, %ashma1 Dith the end of 9,!, hegemon& in 4atin 2merica, the region8s authoritarians -:ene=uela8s Cha3e=, Cuba8s Fidel and Raul Castro, and Nicaragua8s Caniel >rtega -ha3e ta5en the o""ortunit& to e/"and their o#n influence, Cha3e=, the Castro brothers, and >rtega form "art of the 7oli3arian 2lliance for the 2mericas (24721, a band of leftist go3ernments led b& :ene=uela, Contending that 4atin 2merica remains shac5led b& the im"erial 9nited
!tates and its lac5e&s at the Dorld 7an5 and the International Monetar& Fund, members of this grou" remain committed to a nonaligned di"lomac& and see5 friendshi"s #ith the go3ernments of such countries as Iran, Russia, and, to some e/tent, China, Wit t e *nited (tates less in"ol"e' in t e region/ t e ALBA !loc #ill continue to "la& its cherished role as di"lomatic s"oiler and its members #ill face

far fe#er constraints on o# ra'ically

t ey transform t eir societies2

Alliance DA ALBA Neoli! Impact ,NC

ALBA is necessary to organi6e t e masses into a glo!al mo"ement against t e capitalist system Cole/ 11 (Ken, @onorar& Research Fello#, International Institute for the !tud& of Cuba at 4ondon Metro"olitan 9ni3ersit&, LProgress into the )0st Centur&J the 7oli3arian 2lliance for the Peo"les of >ur 2merica,M International 'ournal of Cuban !tudies, :olume E, Issues ) P E, !ummer-2utumn )*00, "g, 00+, %ashma1 2s human "otential, in the ca"italist, globalised, era of social organisation, is e/hausted #ith the machinations of international mar5et e/change, 2472, an emergent, "rogressi3e, initiati3e, ad3ancing the ethics of human e/istence, see5s to offer an alternati3e to the 8"remises no# in e/istence8, %he e/"onential gro#th in
"roducti3e "otential, effected b& the emergence of a global di3ision of labour, is being harnessed to enhance indi3iduals8 #ell-being, %o this end, the "olitical hegemon& of the ruling order in ca"italist societ& , #hat 'eff Fau/ denotes as a 8global class8--8globali=ation,ZisR not Fust a borderless mar5et, but a borderless class s&stem8 (Fau/ )**+J 01-- is under challenge, %he "olitical and economic hegemon& of this global ruling class has been debilitated b& successi3e, dee"ening, economic crises, #hich, o/&moronicall& in mar5et societies, increases e/"loitation and e/acerbates the social and economic "redicament of ca"ital accumulation, %he inFustice of social "roduction in the ser3ice of "ri3ate enter"rise becomes e3er more

a""arent, #hich "resages human consciousness (and social organisation1 e3ol3ing to a higher "laneJ
Dhat #e ha3e to deal #ith here is a communist societ&, not as it has de3elo"ed on its o#n foundations, but, on the contrar&, Fust as it emerges from ca"italist societ&N #hich is thus in e3er& res"ect, economicall&, morall& and intellectuall&, still stam"ed #ith the birth mar5s of the old societ& from #hose #omb it emerges, (Karl Mar/ 0?(), Buoted in Gue3ara 0?+.J 0X+1 %he "rogressi3e

#arrant of the 7oli3arian 2lliance for the Peo"les of >ur 2merica is no# re3ealed, Dith globalisation
and the emergence of an international di3ision of labour and a 8borderless class s&stem8, indi3iduals8 struggles to realise their social "otentials are merging into a 8borderless class struggle8, %he struggle to challenge and change the conditioning

circumstances of social e/istence, #hich, in a globalised #orld, necessaril& are international in sco"e, is regional in reach, It is an en'ea"o&r to a'"ance social conscio&sness and to raise citi=ens8 a#areness of cultural inFustice to a glo!al le"el2 Concomitantl&, it is also a "rocess of building em"ath& and creating solidarit&, #ithout #hich the multitude of e/"loited indi3iduals #ould be st&mied in their efforts to organise themsel3es into a social force to "rosecute their class interests and enrich their life chances, + e gro#t of ALBA spar.s a t ir' #orl' mo"ement against t e egemonic an' neoli!eral #orl' or'er --- 'istinct from past attempts %iller/ 1? (Rosalie, graduate of the 9ni3ersit& of 2uc5land Facult& of 4a# and is no# a "ractising barrister in 4ondon, Mohsen al 2ttar, lecturer in la#, 9ni3ersit& of 2uc5land and #as "re3iousl& at >sgoode @all 4a# !chool and Gor5 9ni3ersit&, 2uc5land, L%o#ards an Emanci"ator& International 4a#J the 7oli3arian reconstruction,M %hird Dorld guarterl&, :olume E0, Issue E, "g, E.(-E+E, %a&lor and Francis, %ashma1 In this article, #e argue that a uniBue !outh 2merican treat& 5no#n as 2472Hthe 7oli3arian 2lliance for the 2mericasH"uts for#ard a cohesi3e counter-3ision of international la# rooted in notions of com"lementarit& and human solidarit&, De further argue that %hird Dorld 2""roaches to International 4a# (%D2I41 scholars might use this initiati3e as a s"ringboard to "ush for#ard a long-o3erdue reform of the international legal regime, Dhile, on its o#n, 2472 is unli5el& to "ose much of a challenge to the structural imbalances that "ermeate global societ&, #hen Fu/ta"osed alongside the man& initiati3es of the 7oli3arian Re3olution, it a""ears to "ossess significant democratic "otential, Dith both scholarl& and "o"ular su""ort, ALBA may e3en a"e t e capa!ility of spar.ing a rene#al of a &nite' + ir' Worl' mo"ement2 For decades %hird Dorld legal scholars ha3e challenged the e/isting international legal regime, confronting the structural imbalances that "ermeate contem"orar& global societ&, %he %hird Dorld 2""roaches to International 4a# (%D2I41 mo3ement has consistentl& #or5ed to#ards "roducing a credible critiBue of international la#, "rimaril& b& identif&ing "rocedures and structures inFurious to %hird Dorld states and "eo"les, %he aim has been to redress the historical biases that "er3ade the global order and that undermine %hird Dorld #ellbeing, Get, des"ite decades of struggle, historical "o#er imbalances "ersist in the international legal regime, as does material

de"ri3ation #ithin %hird Dorld societies, In contrast to 7hu"inder Chimni, #e scholars for their inabilit& to articulate a cohesi3e counter-3ision but, rather, is

argue that this ^failure lies not #ith %D2I4 a result of the forceful counterchallenges #aged b& First Dorld actors, unmo3ed b& the %hird Dorld "light and un#illing to surrender First Dorld "olitical "o#er, Moreo3er, and more im"ortantl&, the trium"h of such a grand legal (and social1 reformati3e "roFect necessitates a 3eritable rebirth of global social relations, itself de"endent on "olitical and "o"ular #ill, Im"etus for such a "roFect has been largel& missingN that is, &ntil no#, De argue that a uniBue !outh 2merican treat& 5no#n as 2472 embodies this #ill and offers %D2I4 scholars the o""ortunit& to actualise their reformati3e as"irations, In the 7oli3arian 2lliance for the
2mericas (24721, #e find a "latform from #hich %D2I4 might transcend its reacti3e nature and de3elo" a "roacti3e character,0 7uilding on a "ractical "rotot&"e that is sha"ing a "artici"ator& model of democratic engagement and a "rogressi3e model of social relations, #e argue that 24728s "hiloso"h& and substanti3e #or5ings "resent the structure needed for the

rein3ention of international la# along similarl& eBuitable linesJ from a formal regulator& regime to a substanti3e emanci"ator& "aradigm, from a "urel& Eurocentric endea3our to one re"resentati3e of the multitude
of global societ&,

Alliance DA ALBA A+F C a"e6 Deat

C a"e6Cs 'eat #ill re"itali6e ALBA --- !rings in more effecti"e lea'ers ip an' gets C ina on !oar' Ellis/ 14 (Cr, R, E3an, associate "rofessor #ith the Dilliam ', Perr& Center for @emis"heric Cefense !tudies in Dashington, C,C,, LDithout :ene=uela8s Cha3e=, 2472 Could %urn to China,M Dorld Politics Re3ie#, 0-)E-0E, htt"J--###,#orld"oliticsre3ie#,com-articles-0)+IX-#ithout-3ene=uelas-cha3e=-alba-couldturn-to-china, %ashma1
2lthough it is difficult to "redict the "recise course of :ene=uelas current leadershi" transition, it is almost certain that President @ugo Cha3e= #ill "ass a#a& #ithin the coming #ee5s or months, @is de"arture #ill im"act not onl& :ene=uela,

but also the 7oli3arian 2lliance for the 2mericas (24721, the regional bloc that Cha3e= founded to "romote his 3ision of 7oli3arian socialism, Dhile con3entional #isdom assumes these im"acts #ill be mostl& negati3e, this is not necessaril& the case, In fact, another outcome is "ossibleJ A re=&"enate' ALBA co&l' ta.e s ape, one centere' on a ne# coalition of pragmatists an' restr&ct&re' aro&n' economic cooperation #it C ina2 :ice President Nicolas Maduro and
National 2ssembl& chief Ciosdado Cabello, either of #hom might succeed Cha3e= in the short term, #ill attem"t to maintain the status Buo in :ene=uela for as long as "ossible, 7ut change #ill come Buic5l& once Cha3e=s death is officiall& recogni=ed, %he constitutional reBuirement for elections #ithin E* da&s of the "residents death is not onl& legall& unambiguous, it has become a cornerstone of the current debate, %he :ene=uelan ruling elite ma& be thoroughl& corru"t, but the& are "ragmaticN the& #ill li5el& gamble that "ermitting an election in #hich the& control the machiner& of the state is less ris5& than ignoring the reBuirement, gi3en a militar& #hose guide"ost during crises has consistentl& been its res"onsibilit& to defend the constitution, Generali=ed 3iolence, #hether s"ontaneous or orchestrated, could al#a&s derail elections, &et the incenti3es are strong for both Cha3e=s lo&alists and the o""osition to see5 legitimac& through the ballot bo/, :irtuall& an& 3ictor in such elections #ould li5el& "ursue a centrist course, @enriBue Ca"riles, the "robable o""osition candidate for "resident, might do so out of con3iction, &et an& o""osition 3ictor #ould face a :ene=uelan National 2ssembl& dominated b& Cha3istas, >n the other hand, if the Cha3ista candidate -- "robabl& Maduro, but "ossibl& Cabello -- #on, he #ould need to establish his legitimac&, and might culti3ate allies in the o""osition as a hedge against Cha3ista ri3als, For an& "ost-Cha3e= go3ernment, a tem"ting o"tion to free u" resources to address domestic needs and constituencies #ould be to cut lo#-interest financing for oil sold under the aus"ices of Petrocaribe, a Caribbean energ& coo"eration agreement that has sent [0) billion in subsidi=ed oil to its 0X member countries since )**I, %he loss of oil subsidies could "rom"t the e/it from Petrocaribe of Caribbean states such as Cominica, although committed regimes such as that of !uriname President Cesi 7outerse #ould li5el& remain, Cha3e=s successor might also target 2472 for funding cuts, although the organi=ations

s&mbolism as Cha3e=s international "olitical legac& #ould li5el& inhibit a ne# :ene=uelan "resident from defunding it com"letel&, In a smaller 2472, #ithout Cha3e=s dominant "ersonalit&, the 3oice of Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa #ould gain "rominence, ele3ating his more intellectuall& coherent and better managed a""roach for le3eraging Chinese resources into a ne# model for sustaining 2472 as a bloc, %he 0)th 2472 summit, #hich is scheduled for the earl& )*0E but #ill "robabl& dela&ed due to Cha3e=s condition, could ser3e to launch this transition, !ince )**?, Ecuador has recei3ed almost [X billion in loans from China and used them relati3el& effecti3el& to transform the nations "o#er infrastructure , in
"articular #ith four maFor ne# h&droelectric "roFects and a [0) billion refiner&, as #ell as to ma5e maFor im"ro3ements to Ecuadors road infrastructure, Correa has also used Chinese com"anies both to s"earhead ne# mining in3estment and to de3elo" the "etroleum sector alongside Destern firms, It is this 5ind of effecti3e use of Chinese ca"ital that 2472 as a #hole needs to sur3i3e decreased :ene=uelan funding, 2nd 2472 #ill "ro3ide Correa #ith the arena he needs to fill the

leadershi" 3acuum Cha3e= #ill lea3e behind, %he timing is also about right, #ith Chinese "roFects blossoming
across the bloc, including a satellite launch, a ne# refiner& and a "ossible [E* billion canal "roFect in NicaraguaN another satellite launch as #ell as h&droelectric, "etroleum and mining "roFects in 7oli3iaN and in3estments in roads, timber and "alm oil in !uriname, 4e3eraging Chinas sur"lus of funds and "reference for "redictable, com"etent

administration, Correa could become instrumental in securing more Chinese resources for 2472 members, #ith interrelated "roFects "romoting greater 2472 integration, >ne could en3ision, for e/am"le,
Chinese financial bac5ing to transform the !ucre, the e/change medium ado"ted b& 2472 in )*0*, into a true common currenc&, or an 2472 telecommunications architecture le3eraging :ene=uelan, Nicaraguan and 7oli3ian satellites, made and launched b& China, and fiber o"tic and cell"hone infrastructures built b& Chinese telecoms @ua#ei and ]%E, !imilarl&, China-funded :ene=uelan oil "roduction, the ne# Nicaraguan canal and Ecuadors refiner& could #or5 together to su""l& "etroleum to Chinese mar5ets, %he im"lementation of such a 3ision #ould be com"lemented b& a ne# Lcore of "ragmatistsM #ithin 2472, su""orti3e of functional, mi/ed-mar5et solutions, including President Caniel >rtega in Nicaragua, 7outerse in !uriname and, "robabl&, Cha3e=s successor in :ene=uela, :ene=uelas oil re3enue #ould continue to gi3e it a maFor 3oice in the ne# 2472 , #ith the countr&s fiscal "osition "robabl& im"ro3ing through increased "ri3ate-sector "artici"ation and the im"ro3ed management of state

oil com"an& PC:!2 that might accom"an& a "ragmatic, "ost-Cha3e= go3ernment, %he

Chinese might e3en in3est more in such a :ene=uela, "erha"s s"eeding u" "romised in3estments as PC:!2 accom"lished more of its share, 2s anal&sts across the region contem"late the colla"se of the 7oli3arian socialist mo3ement, it is "rudent to contem"late instead the "ossibilit& that Cha3e=s de"arture could be the source of the mo3ements recentering and reFu3enation in a fashion that reinforces a ne#found "ragmatism, #hile fortif&ing Chinas strategic "osition in the region,

Alliance DA CELAC 1NC

Lac. of *( infl&ence in LA sp&rre' CELAC;t e ne# m&ltilateral instit&tion t at sol"es conflict BBC/ 11 (%e/t of article in English b& official Chinese ne#s agenc& ainhua (Ne# China Ne#s 2genc&, Me/ico Cit&, Cecember Erd, )*00, LChina article sa&s ne# bloc embodies 4atin 2merica8s global 3ision,M 7ritish 7roadcasting Cor"oration, 4e/isNe/is1--@24 Dhen leaders of EE 4atin 2merican and Caribbean nations co-founded a ne# regional bloc here !aturda&, the& are en3isioning the region as a bigger "la&er on the #orld stage, Dhile the ne#l&-formed Communit& of 4atin 2merican and Caribbean !tates (CE42C1 is "oliticall& di3erse #ith 3aried national as"irations , its historic im"ortance cannot be ignored, "olitical anal&sts said, $ %he creation of CE42C is "art of a global and continental shift, characteri=ed b& the decline of 9,!, hegemon& and the rise of a grou" of regional blocs that form "art of the ne# global balance ,$ Me/ican anal&st Raul ]ibechi #rote in his column on the 4a 'ornada dail&, :ene=uelan President @ugo Cha3e= has made it clear that he #ants 4atin 2merica to stand stronger, more united and inde"endent from 9,!, influence, a 3ie# echoed b& a number of CE42C member countries including 7oli3ia, Ecuador and Nicaragua, Considered as strong allies of Dashington, leaders of Me/ico, Chile and Colombia ha3e also enthusiasticall& embraced the idea of CE42C, 2nd 7ra=il, !outh 2merica8s leading "o#er, refers to the grou"ing as being the region8s $ne# common 3oice$ at man& international fora, %he formation of CE42C has been #elcomed across the region, from the most left#ing anti-9,!, 4atin 2merican nations to the most conser3ati3e "ro-9,!, allies, $Dith the ad3ent of CE42C #e ha3e created a mechanism that #e ha3en8t been able to do during our )** &ears of inde"endence,$ said Me/ican President Feli"e Calderon, Cuban leader Raul Castro described the founding of CE42C as $the biggest inde"endence e3ent of our time,$ 4atin 2merican leaders #ant it to be a forum similar to the >rgani=ation of 2merican !tates (>2!1, but free of "olitical influence from the 9nited !tates, $It8s clear that maFor issues in 4atin 2merica and the Caribbean #ill be addressed b& this ne# regional bod& and the >2! #ill lose the little-e/ercised leadershi" it still "ossesses,$ said an o"-ed "iece in the 7oli3ian "a"er 4a Ra=on #ith a cartoon of a sin5ing shi" named >2!, 2ccording to $%he Caracas Ceclaration,$ a 5e& document signed at the ne# bloc8s founding summit, CE42C #ill ta5e on the role as $regional s"o5esman$ at ministerial tal5s at 5e& international forums , 7ut there #as no
indication #hatsoe3er in the declaration that CE42C #ould see5 to re"lace the >2!, #hich #elcomed the ne# bloc as $a ne# mechanism for "olitical coordination and agreement in the region,$ 2nd >2! !ecretar& General 'ose Miguel Insul=a said CE42C #as certain to $enrich dialogues$ in North and !outh 2mericas, 2nal&sts, ho#e3er, #ill continue to debate #hat 5ind of global role of the ne# grou"ing #ould ta5e, or #hether it #ould e3entuall& re"lace the >2!, %he& said fe# CE42C countries #ould #ant to see the >2! re"laced and the 9nited !tates #ould not stand b& in case of an& attem"t to e/clude it from 4atin 2merican affairs, $%he 9,!, should regard this mo3e as a firm #arning that its neglect of 4atin 2merica and the Caribbean8s de3elo"ment needs and issues is not in the interest of the 9nited !tates,$ said an anal&st, adding that Dashington needs to $engage in 4atin 2merica and the Caribbean$ and ma5e the countries feel li5e $genuine "artners and neighbours,$

Alliance DA %E9CD(*9 1NC

9estoring *2(2 infl&ence in Latin America cr&s es t e %E9CD(*9 alliance Carran6a/ E (Cr, Mario E,, 2ssociate Professor of Political !cience, %e/as 2 P M 9ni3ersit&Kings3ille, Ph,C,, 9ni3ersit& of Chicago, L42%IN 2MERIC2N PER!PEC%I:EJ MERC>!9R, %@E FREE %R2CE 2RE2 >F %@E 2MERIC2!, 2NC %@E F9%9RE >F 9,!, @EGEM>NG IN 42%IN 2MERIC2,M )( Fordham Int8l 4,', 0*)?, Februar& )**., le/is, %ashma1 Curing the Cold Dar, the 9nited !tates and the !o3iet 9nion fa3ored regionalist arrangements as long as the& $reinforced the strength of their res"ecti3e alliance s&stems or "ro3ided Zb0*..R su""ort for im"ortant
clients,$ .( %he 9nited !tates rhetoricall& su""orted the 4atin 2merican Free %rade 2rea ($42F%2$1 created b& the %reat& of Monte3ideo in 0?+*, .X @o#e3er, the Dorld 7an5 and its subsidiaries ignored 42F%28s e/istence in their lending acti3ities and the International Monetar& Fund o"enl& o""osed the creation of regional "a&ment mechanisms, .? MERC>!9R has been

o"enl& o""osed b& the 9nited !tates and the international agencies controlled b& the 9,!, go3ernment, I* %he 9nited !tates failed to "re3ent MERC>!9R from becoming an im"erfect customs union in 'anuar& 0??I, %he 9nited !tates8 attem"ts to disarm MERC>!9R in stages in the name of Destern hemis"here trade liberali=ation ha3e been hindered b& the 9nited !tates8 failure to su""ort 2rgentina during the se3ere economic
crisis of )**0-)**), 9,!, indifference to the 2rgentine crisis created incenti3es for the MERC>!9R countries to cling together and seriousl& damaged the model of a N2F%2-centered F%22 "romoted b& Dashington,

%E9CD(*9 is .ey to Bra6ilian egemony Carran6a/ E (Cr, Mario E,, 2ssociate Professor of Political !cience, %e/as 2 P M 9ni3ersit&Kings3ille, Ph,C,, 9ni3ersit& of Chicago, L42%IN 2MERIC2N PER!PEC%I:EJ MERC>!9R, %@E FREE %R2CE 2RE2 >F %@E 2MERIC2!, 2NC %@E F9%9RE >F 9,!, @EGEM>NG IN 42%IN 2MERIC2,M )( Fordham Int8l 4,', 0*)?, Februar& )**., le/is, %ashma1
Neo-realists claim that !tates that feel threatened b& 9,!, benign hegemonic "retensions #ill ine3itabl& form a coalition (or e3en an alliance1 in order to balance 9,!, "o#er, I0 %he 2rgentine and 7ra=ilian go3ernments describe MERC>!9R

as a $strategic alliance$ and MERC>!9R as !ecome He@tremely important to Bra6il7s o"erall economic an' foreign policy goals ,$ I) 2fter the !outh 2merican "residential summit in 7rasilia, in 2ugust )***, the countries in the region are increasingl& committed to de3elo"ing a s"ecificall& !outh 2merican international "olic&, reducing reliance on the 9nited !tates and e/"anding Zb0*.IR their e/ternal contacts, 7ra=ilian President 4ui= Inacio 4ula da !il3a is leading this effort, arguing that merging !outh
2merica8s t#o largest trading blocs (MERC>!9R and the 2ndean Communit&1 #ill force the 9nited !tates to grant concessions in the final round of the F%22 negotiations, IE,

Bra6il regional po#er .ey to a la&n'ry list of e@tinction impacts Cer"o/ 1? W a historian 7ra=ilian author of se3eral boo5s, focusing mainl& on the countr&8s foreign "olic&, It PhC in @istor& b& 9ni3ersit& of !trasbour (2mando 4ui=, L7ra=il8s rise on the international sceneJ 7ra=il and the Dorld,M 3ol,IE no,s"e 7ras lia Cec, )*0*, htt"J--###,scielo,br-scielo,"h"6"idO!**E.-(E)?)*0****E****)Pscri"tOsciQartte/t1--@24 Global go3ernance 7ra=il is a firm belie3er in multilateralism , 2 rules-based international order is indis"ensable for a more Fust and democratic #orld, %his is true as much for "eace and securit& as it is for climate change or trade, %he G-)* of the D%> - a grou" of emerging countries (7ra=il, India, 2rgentina,
!outh 2frica and others1, #hich came to include China and at least one 4CC, %an=ania - #as formed #ith a 3ie# to ensure that the Coha Ce3elo"ment 2genda (CC21 #ould not be another unfulfilled "romise and #ould effecti3el& bring the de3elo"ment dimension into the trade negotiations, More s"ecificall&, these countries rebelled against a "ro"osed agreement that #ould not address the main issues concerning agriculture reform and its im"act on international trade, 2griculture had al#a&s been considered as a "art of the unfinished business of the 9rugua& Round and constituted one of the central as"ects of the CC2, 2t later stages, it came to be recogni=ed not onl& b& 7ra=il and other de3elo"ing countries, but also b& the 9! herself, that agriculture #as the locomoti3e (sic1 of the Coha Round, Former 9!%R Robert Portman e/"ressl& agreed #ith me on this "oint, during an informal ministerial meeting s"onsored b& the >ECC in Ma& )**I, 9ntil that moment, the D%> negotiations follo#ed the same informal "rocedure that used to be the norm of its "redecessor - the G2%%, 2ll crucial Buestions #ere sorted out b& a small grou" of countries - the guad, constituted b& the 9!, the Euro"ean Commission, 'a"an and Canada, %he rebellion of de3elo"ing countries - b& the #a&,

#ith the su""ort of a number of 4CCs and smaller countries - not onl& "re3ented a bad result in Cancun, but also led to a ne# "attern in the decision-ma5ing "rocess in the D%> , !ince then, 7ra=il

and India ha3e been meeting #ith the 9! and the E9 (and, on occasion, #ith other rich countries, such as 'a"an and 2ustralia, later Foined b& China1 in the so-called G-., #hich e3entuall& re"laced the guad, Most of the "rogress made from Cancun until the 'ul& Pac5age of )**X #as "roduced in G-. meetings, %he abilit& of the G-)* to articulate its "ositions #ith other

grou" of de3elo"ing countries #as fundamental for "rogress made during the @ong Kong Ministerial Meeting of Cecember )**I, #hich decided that the e/"ort subsidies for agriculture must be eliminated b& )*0E, It #as not the first time de3elo"ing countries tried to articulate a common "osition, but, unli5e #hat ha""ened on "re3ious
occasions, in #hich the& had essentiall& a defensi3e - although Fustifiable - "osture, this time, de3elo"ing nations #ere able to ad3ance a constructi3e agenda based on for#ard-loo5ing "ro"osals, It #as, for e/am"le, the G-)* negotiations that

became - #ith adFustments, of course - the architecture for agricultural negotiations , In Cancun,
7ra=il #as fighting t#o "arallel battlesJ one #as at the negotiating table, against the "er"etuation of as&mmetries in trade negotiations, 2nother battle #as for #inning the $hearts and minds$ in a time #hen the media #as selling (or being sold1 a totall& distorted 3ersion, according to #hich 7ra=il and her G-)* "artners #ere bloc5ing a deal out of "lain obstructionism, 7esides, the

"artici"ation of de3elo"ing countries (including the "oorer ones1 ga3e the #hole "rocess more legitimac&, %he change in global go3ernance became all the more e3ident during the financial crisis, 2s a res"onse to the turmoil in the mar5ets, #hich almost brought the #orld into a de"ression as se3ere as that of the thirties, a ne# G-)* s"rung u" , It is hard not to relate those t#o grou"s
#hich carr& the same denomination, e3en though there is no causal relationshi" bet#een their res"ecti3e creations, %he fact that the G-)* of the D%> had been successful in enabling de3elo"ing countries to ha3e a greater sa& in matters of international trade ma& ha3e been in the bac5 of the minds of some decision-ma5ers at the time of the consolidation of the Financial G-)* as a high-le3el forum, %he Financial G-)*, thus u"graded, became the leading forum for macroeconomic coordination, It re"laced the G-X (in realit&, the G-(, since the "resence of Russia in the grou" had more to do #ith her nuclear status then #ith her economic #eight1, Dhen I said, in a conference at the !cience-Po in Paris in mid-)**?, that the G-X #as dead, this #as seen b& man&, es"eciall& in 7ra=il, as a manifestation of hubris, !oon after that, the Pittsburgh !ummit confirmed the G-)* as the "remier forum for economic and financial matters, 7ra=il has also been a fundamental "la&er in the negotiations concerning the

most critical matter of our timeJ climate change, 7ra=il is firml& attached to the "rinci"le of $common but differentiated res"onsibilities$, #hich ta5es into account the rich countries8 historic share in global #arming and recogni=es the right of "oor countries to de3elo", Ne3ertheless,
#e made an ambitious offer of emission cuts at the 0Ith Conference of the Parties in Co"enhagen, in Cecember )**?, #hich actuall& hel"ed "ush others, es"eciall& among the so-called $emerging nations$, to do the same, Dith her bold "ro"osal, and

unli5e other countries, including some of the rich ones, 7ra=il chose not to hide behind other countries8 reluctance, 2t the same time, #e did not allo# an&one to hide behind 7ra=il, In a situation in #hich the sur3i3al of
man5ind #as at sta5e #e decided to "reach b& e/am"le, 9nfortunatel&, the Co"enhagen !ummit did not reach a consensus, %he feasible alternati3e #as the so-called $2ccord$, 2lthough circa thirt& countries #ere included in the discussions, the crucial negotiation of the 2ccord #as to ta5e "lace bet#een 9! President 7arac5 >bama, on one side, and the leaders of the $72!IC$ grou" President 4ula of 7ra=il, President 'acob ]uma of !outh 2frica, Prime Minister Manmohan !ingh of India and Prime Minister Den 'ia-7ao of China - on the other, %his again "oints to the changes in global go3ernance alread& under#a&, In the e3ent, all this effort came to naught, "artl& because the 2ccord #as in itself insufficient (on finance and on reduction commitments b& some countries, most notabl& the 9!1, "artl& because the method to conduct the meeting left some countries e/cluded and Fustifiabl& resentful, >n another theme more directl& related to the sur3i3al of man5ind, i,e,, disarmament and non-"roliferation, 7ra=il has rene#ed

her engagement #ith the struggle for the total elimination of nuclear #ea"ons , 7ra=il chaired the )**I
Re3ie# Conference of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation %reat& and ga3e a strong "ush for the "ositi3e outcome of the )*0* Re3ie# Conference, #hich reaffirmed the $thirteen ste"s to disarmament$, ado"ted in )***, but #hich had fallen into obli3ion, %hese

ste"s #ere based on the "ro"osals made b& the Ne# 2genda Coalition, a grou" com"osed b& de3elo"ed and de3elo"ing countries of different regions, committed to a #orld free of nuclear #ea"ons,

Alliance DA %E9CD(*9 +ra'e Impact

%E9CD(*9 is .ey to regional tra'e an' infrastr&ct&re 'e"elopment <ala'ao/ 0 (Marcos 2urelio Pereira, Professor of 4a# at 9ni3ersidade Catolica de 7rasilia !chool of 4a#, L4EG24 2NC IN!%I%9%I>N24 CIMEN!I>N! >F REF>RMJ Dashington Consensus and 4atin 2merica IntegrationJ MERC>!9R and the Road to Regional Inconsistencies--%o Dhere 2re De Going E/actl&6,M 0I 4a# P 7us, Re3, 2m, )*(, Dinter )**?, le/is, %ashma1 Perha"s because of the region8s closer ties to Euro"e, MERC>!9R defined itself in terms that #ent be&ond Fust economic coo"eration, %he& agreed to de3elo" together regional infrastructure in trans"ort, energ&, and telecommunications, 2nd in 0??X, the four countries signed a Ceclaration on Dor5ers8 Rights and a se"arate agreement to
su""ort democrac&, human rights, and a $"eace =one,$ %he MERC>!9R countries ha3e also negotiated associate membershi" #ith 7oli3ia and Chile, and are consulting #ith the 2ndean Communit&, 2lthough MERC>!9R has been tested b& the

financial crisis in 7ra=il and rising unem"lo&ment in 2rgentina, it has continued to e/"and and dee"en economic coo"eration, %he member go3ernments ha3e reached a sectoral agreement on automoti3e trade, and the& are negotiating #a&s to harmoni=e immigration "olicies (though a MERC>!9R "ass"ort and greater #or5force mobilit&1, financial statements and statistics, and macroeconomic coordination, Most im"ortant has been MERC>!9R8! e/traordinar& gro#th of intraregional trade - a3eraging 0? "ercent a &ear during the 0??*s, almost three times higher than the rate of gro#th of their #orld trade, E+ %he
MERC>!9R Parliament has started to discuss a large arra& of issues, "ushing into the agenda themes such as 3isa fees e/em"tion, cattle Zb)0XR diseases (a common "roblem to MERC>!9R countries1, energ& "roduction and distribution and, of course, issues relating to the formation of a customs union =one, to#ard a common mar5et, 7ra=il has also been forced to finance the "oor countries of the bloc5 to decrease economic discre"ancies bet#een the member countries, 7ut it is 3er& difficult, from a "olitical "oint of 3ie#, to con3ince 7ra=ilian ta/"a&ers to "a& higher ta/es to finance the de3elo"ment of other countries, as has ha""ened in Euro"e, %here is also an ongoing "rocess to lin5 the !outh 2merican logistical infrastructure through the Initiati3e for the Integration of Regional Infrastructure in !outh 2merica (IIR!21, %he IIR!2 #as ado"ted at a Meeting of !outh 2merican Presidents held in 7rasilia, in 2ugust )***, 2t that meeting, regional leaders agreed to ta5e Foint actions to increase !outh 2merican "olitical, social, and economic integration, including the streamlining of regional infrastructure, %his demands "recise measures to "romote integration and de3elo"ment of isolated sub-regions, E( 2lso #orth mentioning, is the so-called "roFect $Red de Mercociudades$, #hich can be literall& translated as $Mercocities Net$, EX %his is a net#or5 of cities #ithin the MERC>!9R

region that #ill de3elo" Foint "roFects, Foint solutions to common "roblems b& sharing e/"eriences, and foster de3elo"ment through the "rocess of integration, E? :II, D@2% I! NEa%6 %he ne/t "hase, es"eciall& for MERC>!9R, is to foster economic integration, %his is one of the reasons
:ene=uela is attem"ting to become a full member of MERC>!9R, %he F%22 #ill not mo3e ahead if the 9nited !tates does not rescind subsidies or does not gi3e affirmati3e signs that it #ill for de3elo"ing countries #hen discussing ser3ices at the D%>, In other #ordsJ the C>@2 Round is bloc5ing the countries8 negotiations #ith regards to F%22 and MERC>!9R, %he Euro"eans ha3e a "ersistent "olic& of attem"ting to demonstrate to 4atin 2merica that "ublic "olicies to#ard social cohesion are better than lea3ing societ& alone to be controlled b& the ancient (and blind1 in3isible hands of the mar5et, .0 as e"itomi=ed b& the Dashington Consensus "olicies, %his "oint of 3ie# #ould "ush 4atin 2merican countries to a more E9-li5e st&le of distributi3e "olicies, 2nother e/am"le of these ne# trends is 7ra=il8s threat to cross-retaliate regarding the u"land cotton subsidies ado"ted b& the 9,!, Go3ernment, %hese subsidies ha3e been deemed to be illegal and ha3e affected 7ra=ilian cotton e/"orts, according to a D%> decision, No#, 7ra=il #ill reBuest D%> authori=ation to a""l& cross-retaliation to 9,!, e/"orts to 7ra=il, if the 9nited !tates does not im"lement the D%> ruling, .) In )**I, after 7ra=il #on the cotton case against the 9nited !tates, .E it formall& reBuested the right to retaliate against 9,!, "atents, co"&rights, Zb))*R and ser3ices "ro3iders, and further sus"ended cross-retaliation reBuest against the 9nited !tates, .. In line #ith this "osition, there is a "ro"osed bill in the 7ra=ilian Congress that, if ado"ted, #ill #iden the sco"e of the brea5ing of "atents on drugs for 2IC! treatment - #hich has been a "aradigmatic issue since the beginning of the Coha Round, %he bill states in its first clause that the la# #ill establish "rocedures for the ado"tion of measures relating to the sus"ension, #ea5ening, and e/tinction of "ro"ert& rights in the 7ra=ilian territor& #hen a foreign countr& does not accom"lish multilateral obligations according to the D%>, .I :III, C>NC49!I>N! %he facts that ha3e been discussed here e/"lain #h& MERC>!9R, C2N, and F%22 are not #or5ing together to acBuire a common destin&, #hile MERC>!9R is still in e3ol3ing, Ces"ite all the deterrence factors "resented in this "a"er that #ould halt MERC>!9R de3elo"ment (in the sense of economic integration1, there

are economic and non-economic factors that are "ushing the region to a "osition #here economic and trade integration #ill be easier in the future, Dhen
economic and trade integration #ill be accom"lished, ho#e3er, is a Buestion &et to be ans#ered,

(ol"es glo!al n&clear #ar %iller, PresHInternational !ociet& for Indi3, 4ibert&, 1008 (###,isil,org-resources-lit-freetrade-"rotectionism,html1

D@EN G>>C! C>N8% CR>!! 7>RCER!, 2RMIE! >F%EN C>

@istor& is not lac5ing in e/am"les of cold trade #ars escalating into hot shooting #ars J

Euro"e suffered from almost non-sto" #ars during the 0(th and 0Xth centuries, #hen restricti3e trade "olic& (mercantilism1 #as the ruleN ri3al go3ernments fought each other to e/"and their em"ires and to e/"loit ca"ti3e mar5ets, 7ritish tariffs "ro3o5ed the

2merican colonists to re3olution, and later the Northern-dominated 9! go3ernment im"osed restrictions on !outhern cotton e/"orts - a maFor factor leading to the 2merican Ci3il Dar, In the late 0?th Centur&, after a half centur& of general free trade (#hich brought a half-centur& of "eace1, short-sighted "oliticians throughout Euro"e again began erecting trade barriers, @ostilities built u" until the& e3entuall& e/"loded into Dorld Dar I, In 0?E*, facing onl& a mild recession, 9! President @oo3er ignored #arning "leas in a "etition b& 0*)X "rominent economists and signed the notorious !moot-@a#le& 2ct, #hich raised some tariffs to 0**_ le3els, Dithin a &ear, o3er )I other go3ernments had retaliated b& "assing similar la#s, %he result6 Dorld trade came to a grinding halt, and the entire #orld #as "lunged into the $Great Ce"ression$ for the rest of the decade, %he de"ression in turn led to Dorld Dar II, %@E k0 C2NGER %> D>R4C PE2CE %he #orld enFo&ed its greatest economic gro#th during the relati3el& free trade "eriod of 0?.I-0?(*, a "eriod that also sa# no maFor #ars, Get #e again see trade barriers being raised around the #orld b& short-sighted "oliticians, Dill the #orld again end u" in a shooting #ar as a result of these economicall&deranged "olicies6 Can #e afford to allo# this to ha""en in the n&clear ageI $Dhat generates #ar is the economic "hiloso"h& of nationalism: embargoes, trade and foreign exchange controls, monetary devaluation, etc. The philosophy of "rotectionism is a "hiloso"h& of #ar,$

Alliance DA *NA(*9 1NC

Bra6il as risen as a regional s&perpo#er '&e to 'ecrease' *( infl&ence in t e region;.ey to regional instit&tions li.e t e *NA(*9 +essman/ 1, - Ph,C, Political !cience, 9ni3ersit& of Colorado, assistant "rofessor of International 2ffairs and associate director of the Center for the !tud& of Global Issues (Globis1 at the 9ni3ersit& of Georgia (7roc5 F,, L!&stem !tructure and !tate !trateg&J 2dding @edging to the Menu,M Ma& ))nd, )*0), %a&lor and Francis >nline1--@24 2 current and 3er& clear case of %&"e 7 hedging is found in 7ra=ils a""roach to regional leadershi" in !outh 2merica, 7ra=ilian foreign "olic&, rather than focusing on shar"ening a com"etiti3e edge against the 9nited !tates, is "rimaril& concerned #ith de3elo"ing regional institutions that are ca"able of addressing threats to !outh 2merican stabilit&, %hese threats ma& be more li5el& to emerge as 2merican inVuence subsides, and its abilit& to "romote economic, militar&, and di"lomatic stabilit& in the region #anes, It is hard to doubt 7ra=ils emergence as a global economic, cultural, and "olitical su"er"o#er, Dith a GCP a""roaching t#o trillion 9! dollars "er &ear, it is currentl& the eighth
largest econom& in the #orld, If it is able to sustain an&thing close to the X "ercent GCP gro#th it enFo&ed last &ear, it is "roFected to be one of the #orlds to" si/ economies b& )*0I,I( 9nli5e man& other states in the Destern @emis"here, 7ra=il had a trade

sur"lus in )*0*, totaling o3er t#ent& billion 9! dollars, 7ra=il is also set to enFo& cultural

ascendance in the ne/t half decade,

as Rio de 'aneiro #ill host the FIF2 Dorld Cu" in )*0. and the !ummer >l&m"ic Games in )*0+, Politicall&,

7ra=il is a

leading candidate for a "ermanent seat on the 9N !ecurit& Council (9N!C1,

an im"ortant member of the e/"anded G)* economic organi=ation, and at the forefront of im"ro3ed L!outh-!outh Coo"erationM organi=ations li5e the India7ra=il-!outh 2frica triad (I7!21,IX @o# does 7ra=ils foreign "olic& strateg& reVect its ra"id emergence6 In an interesting t#ist,

7rasilia "ercei3es its future as a global "o#er to be de"endent on its solidiTcation of regional leadershi" and stabilit& in !outh 2merica, %he em"hasis ma5es sense #hen one considers that 7ra=il shares a land
border #ith e3er& countr& on the continent e/ce"t Chile and Ecuador, I7!2 !ecretar& Figueiredo de !ou=a ma5es this "oint clear in stating that, Lin the case of 7ra=il, the relationshi" #ith our !outh 2merican neighbors is a necessar& and absolute "riorit&,MI? %his a""roach has carried o3er from the "residenc& of 4ula da !il3a to that of his successor, Cilma Rousseff, Gi3en its sheer geogra"hic, demogra"hic, and economic si=e, 7ra=il is a clear leader among !outh 2merican states , It has been the

catal&st in regional integration efforts such as the 9nion of !outh 2merican Nations (9N2!9R1, #hich is designed to "romote free trade, monetar& stabilit&, and, through the !outh 2merican Cefense Council (CC!1, collecti3e securit& ,+* 7ra=ils emergence as the leading "o#er in !outh 2merica occurs #ithin the conte/t of more than a centur& of effecti3e 9! hegemon& in the Destern @emis"here, 7ra=ils relati3e ascendanc& is accelerated, of course, b& the ongoing economic troubles of the 9nited !tates, Dashingtons decision to focus most of its foreign "olic& attention on the Middle East and East 2sia, and the recent left#ard shift in !outh 2merican "olitics,+0 2s such, its more asserti3e a""roach to regional leadershi" could be seen as a challenge to 9! "rimac&, and "erha"s as
an e/am"le of %&"e 2 hedging, %his is clearl& not the case, Ces"ite its interest in "romoting regional economic and securit& autonom&, disagreements o3er the international a""roach to Iran and Israel, and a different attitude to#ard inter3ention and democrati=ation, there is nothing about 7ra=ils a""roach to regional leadershi" that addresses militar& 3ulnerabilities that the 9nited !tates #ould loo5 to e/"loit in the e3ent of a future militar& crisis,+) In fact, 7ra=il has made 3er& little attem"t to bolster its militar& ca"abilities in an& signiTcant #a&, Its arm& is a small, defensi3e force, and it has been some#hat marginali=ed "oliticall& since it #ithdre# from go3ernment in 0?XI, Currentl&, the arm& is more concerned #ith domestic unrest that results from organi=ed crime and drug 3iolence, "articularl& in the fa3elas, 2nd, des"ite some recent tension o3er the sco"e of ins"ections granted to the International 2tomic Energ& 2genc& (I2E21, 7ra=il is still committed to its constitutionall& mandated renunciation of nuclear #ea"ons,+E Indeed, 7ra=ils relations #ith the 9nited !tates ha3e been generall& "ositi3e during the "ost-Cold Dar era, Its regional ambitions seem more collaborati3e than com"etiti3eJ L>ur self-"erce"tion in3ol3es nothing less than being the organi=ing "rinci"le of the continentHnot dis"lacing the9nited !tates, as :ene=uela #ould li5e, but alongside it,M+. %his essentiall& conciliator& a""roach is reci"rocated b& language from 5e& 2merican leaders, %he >bama administrations )*0* National !ecurit& !trateg& states that the 9nited !tates L#elcomes 7ra=ils leadershi" and see5s to mo3e be&ond dated North-!outh di3isions to "ursue "rogress on bilateral, hemis"heric, and global issues,M+I

*NA(*9 is critical to maintaing 'emocracy an' sta!ility in Latin America

5aJpar 11, Petr Kal"ar, Master %hesis at 2alborg 9ni3ersit& Cenmar5 (L%he 4ogic of
9N2!9RJ Its >rigins and Institutionali=ation LN htt"J--"roFe5ter,aau,d5-"roFe5ter-files-IE0I.+EX-%heQ4>GICQ>FQ9N2!9R,"df, FF1

2""arentl&, e/ternal "olitical factor seems to be a strong argument for 9N2!9Rms creations and S e/istence, It has

edged the 9nited !tates out of the most !outh 2merican countries internal affairs, S "lus successfull& resol"e' 'emocratic crises, %he organi=ation, contrar& to the >2!, assembles S "residential summits, rather than creating dialogue bet#een domestic actors, Indeed it preser"es K 'emocracy on the continent, but it concentrates e3en greater "o#er in internal matters as a result of S 9N2!9Rms summits, @ence, Presidents
ha3e an e/"licit interest in bac5ing other "residents from S domestic o""osition and simultaneousl& establishing a "recedent that fa3ors their o#n "osition in S the future, !olingen claimsJM dominant domestic "olitical coalitions create regional institutions that S strengthen their o#n "osition in "o#erM,XE 7esides, #hile the >2! has listened to all sides Lat the S tableM, 9N2!9R

consistentl& o""resses the domestic o""osition , In the en3ironment #here grou"s S lac5 institutions of hori=ontal accountabilit& to legal "olitical change, the onl& means of a""eal are S stri5es, streets bloc5ades, or "rotests, In other #ords, t is mec anism safeg&ar's 'emocracy on the S continent, but at the cost of "otential democratic Bualit&, + at sol"es glo!al #arfare 9oc lin/ 0E Z'ames Francis, Professor of Political !cience at >5anagan 9, College, Discovering the Americas: The Evolution of Canadian Foreign Policy Towards Latin America , 0E*-0E0, Da5e Earl& 7ird FileR
Dhile there #ere economic moti3ations for Canadian "olic& in Central 2merica, securit& considerations #ere "erha"s more im"ortant, Canada "ossessed an interest in "romoting stabilit& in the face of a "otential decline of 9,!, hegemon& in the 2mericas, Perce"tions of declining 9,!, influence in the region W #hich had some credibilit& in 0?(?-0?X. due to the #ildl& ineBuitable di3isions of #ealth in some 9,!, client states in 4atin 2merica, in addition to "olitical re"ression, underde3elo"ment, mounting e/ternal debt, anti-2merican sentiment "roduced b& decades of subFugation to 9,!, strategic and economic interests, and so on W #ere lin5ed to the "ros"ect of e/"losi3e e3ents occurring in the hemis"here, @ence, the Central 2merican imbroglio #as 3ie#ed as a fuse #hich could ignite a catacl&smic "rocess throughout the region, 2nal&sts at the time #orried that in a #orstcase scenario, instabilit& created b& a regional #ar , beginning in Central 2merica and s"reading else#here in

4atin 2merica, might "reoccu"& Dashington to the e/tent that the 9nited !tates #ould be unable to "erform adeBuatel& its im"ortant hegemonic role in the international arena W a concern e/"ressed b& the director of research for Canadas !tanding Committee Re"ort on Central 2merica, It #as feared that s&c a pre'icament co&l' generate increase' global instability an' "erha"s e3en a hegemonic war, %his is one of the moti3ations #hich
led Canada to become in3ol3ed in efforts at regional conflict resolution, such as Contadora, as #ill be discussed in the ne/t cha"ter,

Alliance DA *NA(*9 LA Insta!ility Impact ,NC

*NA(*9 ens&res no Latin America transition #ars;Bra6il maintains sta!ility t ro&g retrenc ment +essman/ 1, - Ph,C, Political !cience, 9ni3ersit& of Colorado, assistant "rofessor of International 2ffairs and associate director of the Center for the !tud& of Global Issues (Globis1 at the 9ni3ersit& of Georgia (7roc5 F,, L!&stem !tructure and !tate !trateg&J 2dding @edging to the Menu,M Ma& ))nd, )*0), %a&lor and Francis >nline1--@24 %hrough the formation of the !outh 2merican Cefense Council, increased efforts at mediation, and greater economic coordination through 9N2!9R, 7ra=il is de3elo"ing a regional net#or5 that #ill be able to function, and "erha"s Vourish, during and after the "rocess of 2merican retrenchment, Mean#hile, there is no e3idence that 7ra=il is engaging in com"etiti3e, %&"e 2 hedging that #ould directl& increase its abilit& to succeed in a militar& confrontation #ith the 9nited !tates , 2ctions that "lace 7ra=il at odds #ith the 9nited !tates are more a"t to reVect differing 3ie#s on foreign inter3ention or negotiation methods rather than a tendenc& to#ard militar& confrontation, It is al#a&s "ossible to
dra# a blunt connection bet#een beha3ior that im"ro3es a countr&s "osition in the regional and international s&stem and a desire for greater le3erage 3is-a-3is the s&stem leader, %&"e 2 strategic hedging, ho#e3er, in- n 3ol3es a s"eciTc, conscious, and obser3able attem"t to bolster ca"abilities in a #a& that #ill signiTcantl& hel" the hedging state in the e3ent of a militari=ed dis"ute #ith the s&stem leader, Dith this criterion in mind, there is sim"l& no com"elling reason to inter"ret 7ra=ils a""roach to regional leadershi" as an instance of %&"e 2 hedging, 2s such, the anal&sis of 7ra=il "resented here ser3es to illustrate the conce"tual distinction bet#een %&"e 2 and %&"e 7 strategic hedging, It is also im"ortant to note, #ith reference to the strategic hedging identiTcation mechanism de3elo"ed earlier in this "a"er, that there are no additional considerations associated #ith 7ra=ils a""roach to regional leadershi" that #ould disBualif& it as an instance of %&"e 7 strategic hedgingN nothing close to traditional balancing beha3ior is under #a& and, because 7ra=ils leadershi" in !outh 2merica has been dri3en b& the

highest le3els of its leadershi" (most notabl&, former President 4ula da !il3a1, there is little Buestion about the strategic nature of 7ra=ilian beha3ior, In the end, this case does, along #ith some of the other e/am"les
mentioned in "assing at the beginning of this section, ser3e as a "rime e/am"le of beha3ior that can be considered a case of %&"e 7 hedging, but not a case of %&"e 2 hedging,

+ at sol"es glo!al #arfare 9oc lin/ 0E Z'ames Francis, Professor of Political !cience at >5anagan 9, College, Discovering the Americas: The Evolution of Canadian Foreign Policy Towards Latin America , 0E*-0E0, Da5e Earl& 7ird FileR
Dhile there #ere economic moti3ations for Canadian "olic& in Central 2merica, securit& considerations #ere "erha"s more im"ortant, Canada "ossessed an interest in "romoting stabilit& in the face of a "otential decline of 9,!, hegemon& in the 2mericas, Perce"tions of declining 9,!, influence in the region W #hich had some credibilit& in 0?(?-0?X. due to the #ildl& ineBuitable di3isions of #ealth in some 9,!, client states in 4atin 2merica, in addition to "olitical re"ression, underde3elo"ment, mounting e/ternal debt, anti-2merican sentiment "roduced b& decades of subFugation to 9,!, strategic and economic interests, and so on W #ere lin5ed to the "ros"ect of e/"losi3e e3ents occurring in the hemis"here, @ence, the Central 2merican imbroglio #as 3ie#ed as a fuse #hich could ignite a catacl&smic "rocess throughout the region, 2nal&sts at the time #orried that in a #orstcase scenario, instabilit& created b& a regional #ar , beginning in Central 2merica and s"reading else#here in

4atin 2merica, might "reoccu"& Dashington to the e/tent that the 9nited !tates #ould be unable to "erform adeBuatel& its im"ortant hegemonic role in the international arena W a concern e/"ressed b& the director of research for Canadas !tanding Committee Re"ort on Central 2merica, It #as feared that s&c a pre'icament co&l' generate increase' global instability an' "erha"s e3en a hegemonic war, %his is one of the moti3ations #hich
led Canada to become in3ol3ed in efforts at regional conflict resolution, such as Contadora, as #ill be discussed in the ne/t cha"ter,

Bac.las DA 1NC
*( eg fails in Latin America an' only triggers greater !ac.las <ele6-<ele6/ 11 W Professor #ho focuses on the subFects of social mo3ements, collecti3e memor& and 4atin 2merica and the Caribbean, PhC from !9NG-9ni3ersit& at 2lban& (Robert, L2nti-2merican Resistance in 4atin 2mericaJ 2n Issue of !o3ereignt&, Militari=ation, and Neoliberalism,M !ociolog& Com"ass, :olume I, Issue X, "ages +?+W(00, 2ugust )*00, 7lac5#ell !&nerg&1--@24
Conclusion (and ReVection1S %he subFect of anti-9! resistance in 4atin 2merica ta5es a "articular meaning in recent S &ears as #e consider the shifting to#ards left-leaning go3ernments and the gro#ing "rogressi3e base-mo3ements in the region, %he "re3ious discussion on the anti-9! resistance mo3ements as tied to 9!-4atin 2merica relations historic

traFector& "ro3ides a conte/tS to better assess the changes of both inter-2merica relations and anti-9! resistance in theS region, %he articulation of anti-9! sentiment ha3e e3ol3ed and transTgured in the lastS centur& to challenge different manifestations of 9nited !tates inVuenceN #hether inter3ention, occu"ation, "aternalism, or mere ca"italism ,S %he im"act of these ne# "olitical trends in 4atin 2merica has been translated into theS mobili=ation of ne# actors from both directions, ground-u" and to"-do#n, and the car3ing of alternati3e forms of resistance and "aths for action, %o these ne# trends #e canS add the gathering of thousands of acti3ists for the Dorld !ocial Forum at Porto 2legre inS )**I and their claim of ^2nother Dorld is Possible, %he changing "atterns in resistance S to#ards the 9nited !tates "olitical, economic, and militar& inVuence o3er 4atin 2merica S must be inter"reted as tied to changes in the 9nited !tates a""roaches of inVuence, %he S e/"ansion of anti-9! resistance #ill continue as the di3erse forms of inter3ention W o3ert S and co3ert W enter into other Telds of 4atin 2merican life, @o#e3er, it #ould be im"erati3e not to confuse all forms of resistance in the
region #ith anti-9! sentiment, e3enS #hen these are directed to the 9nited !tates, because that #ould undermine and reduce S the root of social struggles for eBualit& and Fustice,

Bac.las DA Les Bac.las

*( egemony in Latin America ca&se' m&ltiple atrocities an' contin&ing t ese policies &n'ermines *( egemony an' t&rns t e case (anc e6 an' ( olar 1,, Peter !anche=(PhC1 is a Professor P Graduate Program Cirector

(GPC1 ` 4o&ola 9ni3ersit& in Chicago, Megan !holar is a PhC ` 4o&ola 9ni3ersit& in Chicago, (LPo#er and Princi"leJ 2 Ne# 9! Polic& for 4atin 2mericaMN International 'ournal of @umanities and !ocial !cience :ol, ) No, )EN Cecember )*0)N htt"J--###,iFhssnet,com-Fournals-:olQ)QNoQ)EQCecemberQ)*0)-E,"df, FF1 2mericas Cold Dar "olicies in 4atin 2merica, therefore, #ere 3er& harmful for both 9! interests and 4atin S 2merican interests, %he 9nited !tates maintained a cos&, cons"iratorial relationshi" #ith re"ressi3e regimes that S routinel& 3iolated the rights of its citi=ens, Dorse &et, documents sho# that Dashington at times hel"ed #ith this S re"ression, "la&ing an instrumental "art in establishing "aramilitar& grou"s that often turned into notorious death S sBuads (!ee @aines, 0??I1, E3idence also suggests that 9,!, officials or Buasi-officials #ere at least indirectl& S in3ol3ed in murders and torture, %he saddest as"ect of this drama is that 2merica "robabl& gained little from S becoming in3ol3ed in these nefarious acti3ities, #hile simultaneousl& harming the "ros"ects for democrac& in the S region and its o#n image in the region, 7& inflating the "o#er of the armies in the region, the "recarious ci3ilmilitar& balance that e/isted in 4atin 2merica in the late 0?I*s #as Buic5l& s5e#ed so that ci3il institutions #ere S o3er#helmed b& the "o#er of the ne# "raetorians (!ee 4o#enthal and Fitch, 0?X+1, %he result #as !r&tal military go"ernment that #rea5ed ha3oc on ci3ilians and their #ea5 institutions, the li5es of #hich had seldom been seen S in 4atin 2merica, In 2rgentina, 7ra=il, Chile, El !al3ador, Nicaragua, and Guatemala, t o&san's &pon t o&san's of 'eat s can be S blamed on the domestic armed forces and the complicity of t e *( go"ernment and its re"resentati3es o3erseas, S 2 more ethical, long range "olic&, on the other hand, could ha3e safeguarded 2mericas 3ital interests and S bolstered the image of the 9nited !tates as a nation committed to the "romotion of democrac&, self-determination, S and human rights, E3en if #e #ere to acce"t the notion that a hard-line "olic& #as ine3itable during the Cold Dar S "eriod of su"er-"o#er conflict, no# that no threat from an e/tra hemis"heric "o#er or ideolog& e/ists in 4atin S 2merica, there is no reason for Dashington to continue "olicies that focus on securit& and short-term, real"oliti5S strategies, Contin&ing s&c policies #ill most li.ely &n'ermine *( lea'ers ip2 *( lea'ers ip in Latin America cataly6es conflict;in"igorates 'ictators ips an' increases tensions Dosal/ : - Professor of @istor& at the 9ni3ersit& of !outh Florida, recei3ed his PhC in 4atin 2merican histor& from %ulane 9ni3ersit& in Ne# >rleans (Paul ',, 'ournal of Ce3elo"ing !ocieties, L%he 4atinamericani=ation of 2merican Foreign Polic&,M htt"J--Fds,sage"ub,com-content-)0-E-.-)IE1--@24 Curing the Cold Dar, the 9nited !tates launched at least se3en "reem"ti3e stri5es against alleged communist threats in Guatemala, Cuba, the Cominican Re"ublic, Chile, Grenada, Nicaragua, and Panama, %he means b& #hich the 9nited !tates struc5 3aried from co3ert o"erations run b& a fe# CI2 agents, to in3asion b& a "ro/& force, to a full-scale in3asion b& 9nited !tates troo"s, In none of these cases did the 4atin 2mericans attac5 the 9nited !tates homeland, %he& had conTscated 2merican "ro"erties, established relations #ith the !o3iet 9nion,
ado"ted an inde"endent foreign "olic&, or allegedl& 3iolated international la#, but the& had not threatened to attac5 the 9nited !tates homeland #ith #ea"ons of mass destruction, %he 9nited !tates has been going ^in search of monsters

to destro& in 4atin 2merica for nearl& )** &ears, #ith or #ithout the Cold Dar or #ea"ons of mass

destruction to rationali=e this "olic&, 2merica has been acting "reem"ti3el& and unilaterall& in the #estern hemis"here to "reser3e the Pa/ 2mericana, #hich is the general obFecti3e of the neo-conser3ati3e
foreign "olic& agenda, In the earl& )*th centur&, the 9nited !tates inter3ened militaril& in Cuba, @aiti, the Cominican Re"ublic, Me/ico, Nicaragua, and Panama to "reser3e order and stabilit&, %hese are the forerunners of the constabular& missions that form one of four essential 2merican militar& missions in the neoconser3ati3e "olic& (Kagan et al,, )***1, 2ccording to the neo-

conser3ati3e inter"retation of 9nited !tates relations #ith 4atin 2merica, the #a& that the 9nited !tates sle# monsters in Nicaragua, Cuba, @aiti, and the Cominican Re"ublic illuminates the "ath to the future of an allegedl& ^bene3olent global hegemon&, 2lthough the 7ush doctrine does not
dra# e/"licitl& on an& 4atin 2merican "recedent, the current and future beha3ior of this su"er"o#er reVects the im"erial character of 2merican "olic& as it has been a""lied to 4atin 2merica since the Monroe Coctrine, %here is a straight line that runs from Monroe, through the Pol5 and Roose3elt Corollaries, right through the 2lliance for Progress, the 'ohnson Coctrine, and Reagans Contras, 2merica #as not con3erted into an aggressi3e "o#er b& the un"ro3o5ed and co#ardl& attac5s of ?-00N the 9nited

!tates has acted "reem"ti3el& in 4atin 2merica to acBuire territor&, maintain stabilit&, remo3e alleged threats, "rotect its economic interests, and e3en arrest drug trafTc5ers , %he ad3ersar& is ne#,
but the cham"ion of "reem"tion is old, ConseBuentl&, #e can learn much from e3en a cursor& e/amination of 9! "olic& to#ard 4atin 2merica, @istor& can teach 3aluable lessons, From 4atin 2merican histor& #e can deri3e se3eral

"rinci"les that a""l& to contem"orar& foreign "olic&, 01 2merican Inter3ention Pro3o5es Militant >""osition No matter ho# altruistic the moti3e, no matter ho# bene3olent the intention, 9nited !tates militar& inter3ention dri3es nationalists to ta5e u" arms against the in3ader , In 0?0I, President Dilson sent the Marines to @aiti after a mob attac5ed the @aitian "resident and hac5ed him to bits in the street, %he Marines undoubtedl& restored order #here anarch& once reigned, but #ithin a fe# &ears the Marines suddenl& found themsel3es confronting a dangerous guerrilla mo3ement that 5e"t them bogged do#n for &ears in a 3icious and contro3ersial counterinsurgenc& cam"aign, )1 %he >""onents of 9! Inter3ention 2re Not >nl& 7andits Man& criminals undoubtedl& too5 ad3antage of the disorder in @aiti and else#here to rob and 5ill, Get the 9nited !tates too often underestimated and denigrated the obFecti3es of its enemies , %he most Vagrant misre"resentation of a "eo"les as"irations "robabl& occurred in Nicaragua , #here the Marines unsuccessfull& "ursued a bandit named 2ugusto C<sar !andino, @e might ha3e been a confused "olitical leader, but he #as more than Fust a bandit, @e #as a nationalist, and his cause resonated among Nicaraguans for t#o generations after his assassination , E1 %he Results of Preem"ti3e 2ction Ma& 7e Dorse %han the %hreat It !ought to Eliminate %he results of 2merican militar& inter3ention in Nicaragua, Cuba, and the Cominican Re"ublic, to name onl& three, #ere the !omo=a, 7atista, and %ruFillo dictatorshi"s, Dere the Nicaraguan, Cuban, and Cominican "eo"le an& better off because of 2merican militar& inter3ention6 If the 9nited !tates had ne3er inter3ened, one can argue that these dictatorshi"s #ould ha3e come into "o#er, .1 Cictatorshi"s and Couble !tandards Dill not Din 9s Man& Friends or 2llies %he 9nited
!tates rationali=ed its su""ort for these and other dictators on the grounds that the& ser3ed short-term 2merican interests, %oda&, neo-conser3ati3es are defending 9nited !tates relations #ith authoritarian regimes in Pa5istan, Eg&"t, and !audi 2rabia because #e must tolerate ^unfreedom in certain "laces in order to #in ^the larger battle for freedom on the global scale, Columnist Charles Krauthammer dusted off 'eanne Kir5"atric5s old doctrine to Fustif& su""ort for unsa3or& regimes toda&, 4oo5ing bac5 on Pinochet, the !hah of Iran, and Mobutu, Krauthammer ()**)aJ ?*1 claims, ^for all their faults, the& #ere at the time better for their o#n "eo"le than those #ho #ould re"lace them, I1 It Is CifTcult to Gro# Cemocrac& in Infertile !oil %he 7ush Coctrine calls for the "romotion of democratic 3alues around the #orld because freedom is allegedl& a ^uni3ersal 3alue, %he 7ush administration ho"es that success in 2fghanistan and IraB #ill unleash democratic reform throughout the Middle East, %heodore Roose3elt, Dilliam @o#ard %aft, and Doodro# Dilson all attem"ted to teach the 4atin 2mericans ^to elect good men, Ces"ite their best efforts, their "olicies "roduced dictatorial regimes throughout the region , It is difTcult to s"read democrac& b&

force, 2n& attem"t to im"ose a form of go3ernment on an& foreign "eo"le 3iolates the fundamental right enFo&ed b& citi=ens in a democrac&J the right to self-determination, Conclusions 4atin 2mericans ha3e enFo&ed a right of self-determination onl& to the e/tent that the& did not challenge the hegemon& of the 9nited !tates, @enr& Kissinger e/"lained the rationale for 2merican o""osition to
the election of !al3ador 2llende #ith the infamous statementJ ^I dont see #h& #e need to stand b& and #atch a countr& go Communist due to the irres"onsibilit& of its o#n "eo"le (@ersch, 0?XEJ )+I1, Dhen the 9nited !tates launched a co3ert "reem"ti3e stri5e against !al3ador 2llende in 0?(E, the Euro"eans begrudgingl& acce"ted it and the !o3iets ac5no#ledged it as if it #ere a legitimate act in the 9nited !tates s"here of inVuence, %he "olicies of "reem"tion and unilateralism ha3e been

de3elo"ed and reTned through nearl& )** &ears of interaction #ith 4atin 2merica, No# that the 9nited !tates has asserted its right and dut& to "olice the entire #orld, the Euro"eans obFect to a dis"la& of im"erialist beha3ior that has been all too common in 4atin 2merica, %he histor& of 9nited

!tates beha3ior in 4atin 2merica "ro3ides clues, but not a blue"rint for the a""lication of the 7ush Coctrine to the rest of the #orld, It is difTcult to imagine that the 7ush administration #ould attem"t to im"ose the language of the Platt 2mendment into the constitutions of IraB or 2fghanistan, but it is not inconcei3able, @o#e3er, the "olic& of "reem"tion needs no Platt 2mendment, E3en after the 9nited !tates re"udiated the "olic& of non-inter3ention at the Monte3ideo Conference of 0?EE, the 9nited !tates inter3ened re"eatedl& in 4atin 2merican affairs, 2ll "residents and "residential candidates ha3e afTrmed the right of "reem"tion, as 'ohn Kerr& did in his Trst debate #ith President George D, 7ush on E* !e"tember )**., %he histor& of 9nited !tates relations #ith 4atin 2merica sho#s that "reem"ti3e and unilateral actions are not the domain of a single "art&, Cemocrats and Re"ublicans, Doodro# Dilson and %heodore Roose3elt, 'ohn Kenned& and Ronald Reagan, ha3e launched "reem"ti3e stri5es #hen and #here the& "ercei3ed threats to 2merican economic and strategic interests, %he 9nited !tates is no# the "reeminent militar&

"o#er on the "lanet, In this, the neo-conser3ati3es are absolutel& correct, %he neo-conser3ati3es succeeded in ta5ing o3er
the 7ush administration foreign "olic& "artl& because the& had a grand strateg& to use that "o#er in defense of #hat the& call ^2merican interests and 3alues, %here is not a clearl& articulated o""osition to the neo-conser3ati3e grand strateg&, Dith 4iberals and Cemocrats focused e/clusi3el& on the tas5 of defeating 7ush at the "olls, the& ha3e not de3oted the time and energ& to a ne# grand strateg& to re"lace it, !uch a reconsideration of 2merican foreign "olic& should ta5e ad3antage of

the lessons learned in a region #here the 9nited !tates has long e/ercised hegemon&, %edd&
Roose3elt and Ronald Reagan, #hile the darlings of the neo-conser3ati3es at home, are not so #idel& res"ected or regarded in 4atin 2merica, #hile Fran5lin Roose3elt and 'ohn Kenned& are much more "o"ular in the region, %he Good Neighbor Polic& and the 2lliance for Progress, for all their faults, demonstrated a res"ect and concern for 4atin 2mericans all too rare in 2merican foreign "olic&, Roose3elts "olic& of non-inter3ention #on allies for the !econd Dorld Dar, Kenned&s great de3elo"ment "roFect fell far short of its obFecti3es, but it also #on friends and allies, %he in3asion of Panama in 0?X?, ho#e3er, #as denounced b& e3er& 4atin 2merican countr& e/ce"t b& the "u""et regime in Panama, 2lthough "reem"ti3e stri5es ma& sometimes be "o"ular and e3en necessar&, the& do not necessaril& "romote the long-term interests of the 9nited !tates, >ne #ould be hard "ressed to argue that either the "eo"le of Guatemala or the 9nited !tates beneTted from the "reem"ti3e stri5e against 'acobo 2rben= in 0?I., @is go3ernment res"ected democratic "ractices and "romoted economic de3elo"ment more seriousl& and successfull& than the militar& dictatorshi"s that follo#ed him o3er the ne/t E* &ears, In 0?I., no action at all might ha3e been the better res"onse to a greatl& e/aggerated threat to the 9nited !tates,

*( egemonic p&s into Latin America only can ca&se conflict;empirics pro"e Ca3id )ion-Berlin, 9ni3ersit& of California at Ri3erside an' @arold +rin.&nas, Na3al Postgraduate !chool )**> (L2ttention CeficitsJ Dh& Politicians Ignore Cefense Polic& in 4atin 2merica,M Ca3id Pion-7erlin and @arold %rin5unas, 4atin 2merican Research Re3ie#, :ol, .), No, E ()**(1, "", (+-0**, %he 4atin 2merican !tudies 2ssociation, htt"J--###,Fstor,org-stable-..??E?*1 --@24 %he 9nited !tates "olic& has indirectl& reinforced the trend a#a& from S interstate conflict b& encouraging a focus on internal defense for 4atin S 2merican militaries, rather than b& directl& inter3ening to resol3e the S conflicts that did occur, Contem"orar& international relations theor& has S occasionall& referred to the 9,!, role in 4atin 2merica as a classic e/am"le S of hegemonic management, #ith the 9nited !tates inter3ening to "re3ent S #ar in the region, 7ut #e concur #ith Mares ()**01 and Comingue= S ()**I1 that 9,!, hegemon& has had little influence on interstate conflict S "er se, In fact, some #ould "oint to the Central 2merican conflicts of S the 0?X*s as an e/am"le of hegemonic $mismanagement$ that "ro3o5ed S greater conflict, Instead, the 9nited !tates has influenced the nature of the S militaries in the region in a #a& that deem"hasi=es con3entional offensi3e S ca"abilities, 2s earl& as Dorld Dar II, the e/"licit "olic& of the 9nited S !tates #as to assume the mantle of defending the 2mericas against e/- S tra-continental con3entional militar& threats, and su""orting and train- S ing 4atin 2merican armed forces to counter domestic sub3ersion, %he S 9nited !tates contributed to this trend as a maFor "ur3e&or of militar& S assistance and training to the region, through #hich it em"hasi=ed an S internal orientation, "ro3ided counterinsurgenc& eBui"ment and train- S ing and discouraged the "urchase of ad3anced #ar fighting "latforms S b& 4atin 2merican states, 4atin 2merican states began to di3ersif& their S acBuisitions to Euro"ean and 2sian su""liers b& the 0?(*s, but this still S means that 9,!, influence fa3oring a domestic orientation influenced t#o generations of militar& officers and discouraged the de3elo"ment S of offensi3e militar& ca"abilities (Mott )**), X?-?+1, S %he internal orientation of 4atin 2merican defense establishments S #as reflected in decisions about defense budgets, militar& training, S and acBuisitions, It meant that man& 4atin 2merican militaries ne3er S de3elo"ed the ca"abilities to engage in sustained offensi3e o"erations, S %he shortcomings of a relati3el& #ell-eBui""ed 4atin 2merican militar&, S such as 2rgentina8s, in the face of combat against a ca"able Euro"ean S ad3ersar& is highlighted b& the outcome of the Mal3inas conflict (Garcia S 0??I1, E3en conflicts bet#een 4atin 2merican state ri3als themsel3es S re3eal inadeBuacies in defense "re"aredness, a dee" reluctance to engage S in combat, and urgent a""eals for third "art& mediation, S %he relati3e "aucit& of

inter-state conflict does not mean that there S ha3e not been serious, enduring ri3alries in 4atin 2mericaN 2rgentina S and Chile, Peru and Ecuador, :ene=uela and Colombia, and El !al3ador S and @onduras are 5e& e/am"les, Each ri3alr& is a source of continuing S tension and occasionall& raises the "ossibilit& of militari=ed border dis- S "utes, and e3en #ar, Certainl&, militaries in the region ha3e "ointed to S such dis"utes as Fustifications for their o#n e/istence or for acBuisition S of maFor #ea"ons s&stems, @o#e3er enduring, these ri3alries in and of S themsel3es ha3e not led to the de3elo"ment of militar& forces #ith sigS nificant offensi3e ca"abilities or resulted in sustained ci3ilian attention S to defense "olic&,8 In fact, in cases #here such a $#ar scare$ has occurred S during "eriods of ci3ilian rule, the res"onse of an/ious "oliticians has S been im"ro3ised, more often than not, #ith an immediate resort to a S negotiated solution as the "referred solution, S %he most recent 4atin 2merican conflict, #hich too5 "lace bet#een S Peru and Ecuador in 0??I, illustrates the almost instincti3e ci3ilian a3er- S sion to #ar and resort to di"lomac& that has characteri=ed inter-state S relations in the region, %his conflict re3ealed Ecuadorian armed forces S that "erformed une/"ectedl& #ell on defense, but neither state e/hibited S much in the #a& of offensi3e militar& ca"abilities, and both states lim- S ited their theater of o"erations to a small sli3er of dis"uted territor& in S the 9""er Cene"a region of their 2ma=onian border, Neither side had S the desire or abilit& to escalate the #ar, and the Peru3ian armed forces, S considerabl& larger in si=e and resources, #ere

ne3ertheless noticeabl& S un"re"ared for combat o"erations, lac5ing logistical ca"abilities and S enough troo"s (@er= and Pontes Nogueira )**)1, Dithin one da& of the S commencement of hostilities, the Ecuadorian "resident #as alread& S ma5ing urgent a""eals to the >2!, 7ra=il, and the other guarantor states S 0, 2lthough not rele3ant to e/"laining ci3ilian inattention to defense "olic&, #e should S also note that e3en states ruled b& militar& go3ernments, a relati3el& freBuent circumstance S in t#entieth-centur& 4atin 2merica, ha3e not "roduced "articularl& effecti3e or offensi3e S minded armed forces, S 4atin 2merican Research Re3ie# S to inter3ene di"lomaticall&N the Peru3ians #ere eBuall& an/ious for a S negotiated settlement, #hich came on Februar& 0(,0??I, Fust three #ee5s S after the fighting had begun, 2s @er= and Pontes Nogueira "oint out, S $Fear of a general escalation certainl& contributed to limiting the scale of S 3iolence and to attem"ts to end the #ar Buic5l&$ ()**),.+1, In the #a5e S of the #ar, it is im"ortant to note that neither state attem"ted to remed& S the deficiencies in their militar& "erformance through the de3elo"ment S of a credible defense "olic&, Instead, ci3ilian leaders on both sides in- S 3ested

>ther recent inter-state militari=ed dis"utes that too5 "lace bet#een S ci3ilian-led go3ernments in the region, such as the Nicaraguan-@onduran S border tensions during the 0?X*s and the confrontation bet#een Colombia S and :ene=uela o3er maritime boundaries in the Gulf of :ene=uela in 0?X(, S also re3ealed a "reference for di"lomac&, a notable ci3ilian inattention to S defense "olic&, and a general lac5 of "re"aredness for conducting effecti3e S militar& o"erations, 7oth Nicaragua and @onduras reBuired significant S su""ort, including combat and training troo"s from their Cold Dar s"on- S sors, to mount credible militar& "re"arations, E3en as the 9nited !tates S and Cuba attem"ted to "re"are their "ro/ies for #ar, the region as a #hole S #as engaged in a long-term di"lomatic effort, crafted and "ressed for#ard S b& ci3ilian "oliticians in Me/ico, Colombia, :ene=uela, and the !outhern S Cone, the so-called Contadora grou", to "eacefull& resol3e the Central S 2merican conflicts of the 0?X*s, It is notable that once the Cold Dar ended S and the su"er"o#ers lost interest in the region, Central 2merican states, led S b& President >scar 2rias of Costa Rica, Buic5l& negotiated an end to their S dis"utes and "ursued an aggressi3e demilitari=ation of the region (7arletta S and %rin5unas )**.1, !imilarl&, the Colombian-:ene=uelan dis"ute o3er S maritime borders in 0?X( sho#cased
their attention and resources in the (successful1 de3elo"ment of S a "ermanent di"lomatic solution to their border dis"ute, S a general lac5 of "re"aration for #ar S on both sides, and a ci3ilian disinterest in militar& "lanning during the S conflict, Neither side de3elo"ed an& significant ne# militar& ca"abilities S or engaged in long-term "lanning to address the shortcomings of their S defense forces in the #a5e of the conflict, In fact, Colombia and :ene=uela S instead "ursued regional economic integration, dramaticall& increasing S the flo#s of goods and "ersons along their common borders during the S 0??*s (%rin5unas 0???1, S %hese ri3alries reinforced ci3ilian "references for di"lomatic o3er S militar& solutions to conflict, as did the "rocess of

essence, the relati3e S absence of #ar in 4atin 2merica during the last t#o decades #ould S seem to su""ort the often debated $democratic "eace$ h&"othesis set S forth b& liberal theorists of international relations (Mao= and Russet S 0??E1, In the !outhern Cone, democrati=ers in 2rgentina sought to S
democrati=ation that S s#e"t the region during the 0?X*s and 0??*s, In

demilitari=e and eliminate conflicts #ith their neighbors to undermine the rationale for the e/istence of a large (and "oliticall& acti3e1 militar&, S %he& had greater success initiall& con3incing 7ra=il than Chile, but S b& the end of the 0??*s, 2rgentina had successfull& resol3ed all of its S maFor border dis"utes, %he& also sought greater regional integration S through the MERC>!9R treat& frame#or5, and Ca3id Pion-7erlin S ()***1 has documented ho# economic integration in the !outhern Cone S has reinforced an e/"ectation of "eaceful interstate dis"ute resolution, S %he Contadora "rocess in Central 2merica also hinged on an e/"ecta- S tion that democrati=ation #ould "roduce a more "eaceful subregion, S Dhether or not this logic #as correct, it certainl& a""eared to be so S for the ci3ilian leaders of these maFor regional "o#ers

%his sustained "eace has been reinforced b& di"lomatic and legal S (i,e,, ci3ilian1 institutional inno3ations in the region, Comingue= ()**I1 S documents contributions to international la# that originate in inter- S 2merican di"lomac&, the most im"ortant of #hich is uti "ossidetis Furi, S #hich established that a modern state8s boundaries should match those S of its colonial "redecessor and fa3ors the territorial integrit& of states , S @e also "oints to the role of the >2! in managing interstate dis"utes S and organi=ing "eace5ee"ing mechanisms , Kaco#ic= (0??X1 goes fur- S ther and argues that !outh 2merica has de3elo"ed a $=one of "eace$ in S #hich states no longer e/"ect to go to #ar #ith each other, Certainl&, the S !outhern Cone has come the furthest to#ards de3elo"ing a "luralistic S securit& communit& #hose members no longer ha3e an e/"ectation that
(7arletta and S %rin5unas )**.1, S

S force #ill be used in their interstate relations, %he conce"t of =one of S "eace has e3en been enshrined in certain limited forms b& regional trea- S ties, such as the 0?+( %reat& of %latelolco establishing 4atin 2merica as a S nuclear-#ea"ons free =one (7arletta and %rin5unas )**.1, Mares ()**01 S has disagreed #ith the conce"t of =ones of "eace as a descri"tion of the S international relations of 4atin 2merica, "ointing out that states still S ma5e the choice to militari=e interstate dis"utes, @o#e3er, the conflicts S he identifies are small in scale and ha3e not s"ar5ed significant ci3ilian S interest in defense "olic& be&ond a brief $rall& around the flag$ effect S during the "eriod of the conflict itself, S In the absence of sustained international or regional militar& threats, S both liberal and realist theories of international relations #ould "redict S that 4atin 2merica is an unli5el& candidate for arms races, balance of S "o#er beha3ior, or acute securit& dilemmas, Dithout such a stimulus S for the de3elo"ment of offensi3e ca"abilities, it ma5es sense that ci3ilian S elites "referred di"lomac& and international la# as solutions to interstate S dis"utes, reinforcing the "rolonged "eace in the region, %he o3erall ef- S fect of histor& and structure is to "roduce a "ath b& #hich ci3ilian elites S ha3e consistentl& turned a#a& from de3elo"ing an interest in national S defense as an im"ortant field of "ublic "olic&,

Bra6il DA 1NC
Bra6il controls Latin American infl&ence;increase' *( presence 'isr&pts regional po#er !alances Bet ell/ 1? - English historian, uni3ersit& "rofessor, and 7ra=ilianist #ho s"ecialises in the stud& of 0?th and )*th Centur& 4atin 2merica, em"hasi=ing on 7ra=il in "articular, PhC in @istor& at the 9ni3ersit& of 4ondon (4eslie, L7ra=il and L4atin 2mericaM,M 'ournal of 4atin 2merican !tudies, !tudies, "age .+(-.XI, :olume .) - Issue *E - 2ugust )*0*, htt"J--Fournals,cambridge,org-abstractQ!**)))0+a0****XXa1--@24 7ra=il and !outh 2merica since the End of the Cold DarS %here is one final t#ist to this stor& of 7ra=ils relationshi" #ith ^2memrica 4atina-^4atin 2merica, 2s a result of the end of the Cold Dar, the "rofound changes in #orld "olitics that follo#ed, the intensification of the "rocess of globalisation and, not least, fundamental "olitical and economic change in 7ra=il itself, 7ra=ils "resence and influence in the #orld has gro#n significantl&, es"eciall& underS the "residencies of Fernando @enriBue Cardoso (0??IW)**E1 and 4ui= Inamcio 4ula da !il3a ()**EW0*1, 7ra=il has "la&ed an increasingl& im"ortant role in NorthW!outh and !outhW!outh relations and has been a 5e& "la&er in discussions on a #hole range of global issues, including trade, reform of multilateral institutions and climate change, 7ra=il is considered internationall&, along #ith China and India, as one of the ^emerging global "o#ers in the first half of the t#ent&-first centur&, 2t the same time, there has been a maFor de3elo"ment in 7ra=ils relations #ith the other states in its region, 7ra=il has continued to su""ort the #or5 of the >rganisation of 2merican !tates, founded in 0?.X at the ninth Pan- 2merican Conference in 7ogotam, and its "residents ha3e attended all fi3e !ummits of the 2mericas held since Cecember 0??., #hile resisting the 9! agenda for the economic integration of the #estern hemis"here, 7ra=il has attended the annual meetings of
the Rio Grou" of 4atin 2merican and Caribbean states, founded in 0?X+, and is no# gi3ing its su""ort to the S "ro"osed creation of a communit& of all E) 4atin 2merican and Caribbean states, 7ut 7ra=il has also, for the first time in its histor&,

acti3el& "ursued a "olic& of engagement, both economic and "olitical, #ith its immediate neighbours in !outh 2merica, %his #as a conscious decision deliberatel& ta5en in 0??)WE, reinforced b& the fact that in 0??. Me/ico Foined the 9nited !tates and Canada in ^North 2merica, President Cardoso hosted the first summit of !outh 2merican "residents in 7rasomlia in )***, 2t the third summit S
held in Cusco in Cecember )**., during the 4ula administration, a !outh 2merican Communit& of Nations #as formed, It consisted of 0) nations, including Gu&ana and !uriname, 2t the summit held in 7rasomlia in Ma& )**X S the communit& became a 9nion of !outh 2merican Nations (9N2!9R1, Im"ro3ed relations #ith its !outh 2merican neighbours and, indeed, the economic and "olitical integration of !outh 2merica has been the "rinci"al S focus of 7ra=ilian foreign "olic& under President 4ula, 2lso for the first time, and #ith a good deal of hesitanc&, uncertaint& and ambi3alence, 7ra=il has begun to thin5 of itself as a

regional "o#er, not onl& in its long-term economic and strategic interests but because, it is argued in Itamarat&, regional "o#er is a necessar& condition for global "o#er, %he region in Buestion,S
ho#e3er, is !outh 2merica, not 4atin 2merica,++

Bra6il regional po#er .ey to a la&n'ry list of e@tinction impacts Cer"o/ 1? W a historian 7ra=ilian author of se3eral boo5s, focusing mainl& on the countr&8s foreign "olic&, It PhC in @istor& b& 9ni3ersit& of !trasbour (2mando 4ui=, L7ra=il8s rise on the international sceneJ 7ra=il and the Dorld,M 3ol,IE no,s"e 7ras lia Cec, )*0*, htt"J--###,scielo,br-scielo,"h"6"idO!**E.-(E)?)*0****E****)Pscri"tOsciQartte/t1--@24 Global go3ernance 7ra=il is a firm belie3er in multilateralism , 2 rules-based international order is indis"ensable for a more Fust and democratic #orld, %his is true as much for "eace and securit& as it is for climate change or trade, %he G-)* of the D%> - a grou" of emerging countries (7ra=il, India, 2rgentina,
!outh 2frica and others1, #hich came to include China and at least one 4CC, %an=ania - #as formed #ith a 3ie# to ensure that the Coha Ce3elo"ment 2genda (CC21 #ould not be another unfulfilled "romise and #ould effecti3el& bring the de3elo"ment dimension into the trade negotiations, More s"ecificall&, these countries rebelled against a "ro"osed agreement that #ould not address the main issues concerning agriculture reform and its im"act on international trade, 2griculture had al#a&s been considered as a "art of the unfinished business of the 9rugua& Round and constituted one of the central as"ects of the CC2, 2t later stages, it came to be recogni=ed not onl& b& 7ra=il and other de3elo"ing countries, but also b& the 9! herself, that agriculture #as the locomoti3e (sic1 of the Coha Round, Former 9!%R Robert Portman e/"ressl& agreed #ith me on this "oint, during an informal ministerial meeting

s"onsored b& the >ECC in Ma& )**I, 9ntil that moment, the D%> negotiations follo#ed the same informal "rocedure that used to be the norm of its "redecessor - the G2%%, 2ll crucial Buestions #ere sorted out b& a small grou" of countries - the guad, constituted b& the 9!, the Euro"ean Commission, 'a"an and Canada, %he rebellion of de3elo"ing countries - b& the #a&,

#ith the su""ort of a number of 4CCs and smaller countries - not onl& "re3ented a bad result in Cancun, but also led to a ne# "attern in the decision-ma5ing "rocess in the D%> , !ince then, 7ra=il
and India ha3e been meeting #ith the 9! and the E9 (and, on occasion, #ith other rich countries, such as 'a"an and 2ustralia, later Foined b& China1 in the so-called G-., #hich e3entuall& re"laced the guad, Most of the "rogress made from Cancun until the 'ul& Pac5age of )**X #as "roduced in G-. meetings, %he abilit& of the G-)* to articulate its "ositions #ith other

grou" of de3elo"ing countries #as fundamental for "rogress made during the @ong Kong Ministerial Meeting of Cecember )**I, #hich decided that the e/"ort subsidies for agriculture must be eliminated b& )*0E, It #as not the first time de3elo"ing countries tried to articulate a common "osition, but, unli5e #hat ha""ened on "re3ious
occasions, in #hich the& had essentiall& a defensi3e - although Fustifiable - "osture, this time, de3elo"ing nations #ere able to ad3ance a constructi3e agenda based on for#ard-loo5ing "ro"osals, It #as, for e/am"le, the G-)* negotiations that

became - #ith adFustments, of course - the architecture for agricultural negotiations , In Cancun,
7ra=il #as fighting t#o "arallel battlesJ one #as at the negotiating table, against the "er"etuation of as&mmetries in trade negotiations, 2nother battle #as for #inning the $hearts and minds$ in a time #hen the media #as selling (or being sold1 a totall& distorted 3ersion, according to #hich 7ra=il and her G-)* "artners #ere bloc5ing a deal out of "lain obstructionism, 7esides, the

"artici"ation of de3elo"ing countries (including the "oorer ones1 ga3e the #hole "rocess more legitimac&, %he change in global go3ernance became all the more e3ident during the financial crisis, 2s a res"onse to the turmoil in the mar5ets, #hich almost brought the #orld into a de"ression as se3ere as that of the thirties, a ne# G-)* s"rung u" , It is hard not to relate those t#o grou"s
#hich carr& the same denomination, e3en though there is no causal relationshi" bet#een their res"ecti3e creations, %he fact that the G-)* of the D%> had been successful in enabling de3elo"ing countries to ha3e a greater sa& in matters of international trade ma& ha3e been in the bac5 of the minds of some decision-ma5ers at the time of the consolidation of the Financial G-)* as a high-le3el forum, %he Financial G-)*, thus u"graded, became the leading forum for macroeconomic coordination, It re"laced the G-X (in realit&, the G-(, since the "resence of Russia in the grou" had more to do #ith her nuclear status then #ith her economic #eight1, Dhen I said, in a conference at the !cience-Po in Paris in mid-)**?, that the G-X #as dead, this #as seen b& man&, es"eciall& in 7ra=il, as a manifestation of hubris, !oon after that, the Pittsburgh !ummit confirmed the G-)* as the "remier forum for economic and financial matters, 7ra=il has also been a fundamental "la&er in the negotiations concerning the

most critical matter of our timeJ climate change, 7ra=il is firml& attached to the "rinci"le of $common but differentiated res"onsibilities$, #hich ta5es into account the rich countries8 historic share in global #arming and recogni=es the right of "oor countries to de3elo", Ne3ertheless,
#e made an ambitious offer of emission cuts at the 0Ith Conference of the Parties in Co"enhagen, in Cecember )**?, #hich actuall& hel"ed "ush others, es"eciall& among the so-called $emerging nations$, to do the same, Dith her bold "ro"osal, and

unli5e other countries, including some of the rich ones, 7ra=il chose not to hide behind other countries8 reluctance, 2t the same time, #e did not allo# an&one to hide behind 7ra=il, In a situation in #hich the sur3i3al of
man5ind #as at sta5e #e decided to "reach b& e/am"le, 9nfortunatel&, the Co"enhagen !ummit did not reach a consensus, %he feasible alternati3e #as the so-called $2ccord$, 2lthough circa thirt& countries #ere included in the discussions, the crucial negotiation of the 2ccord #as to ta5e "lace bet#een 9! President 7arac5 >bama, on one side, and the leaders of the $72!IC$ grou" President 4ula of 7ra=il, President 'acob ]uma of !outh 2frica, Prime Minister Manmohan !ingh of India and Prime Minister Den 'ia-7ao of China - on the other, %his again "oints to the changes in global go3ernance alread& under#a&, In the e3ent, all this effort came to naught, "artl& because the 2ccord #as in itself insufficient (on finance and on reduction commitments b& some countries, most notabl& the 9!1, "artl& because the method to conduct the meeting left some countries e/cluded and Fustifiabl& resentful, >n another theme more directl& related to the sur3i3al of man5ind, i,e,, disarmament and non-"roliferation, 7ra=il has rene#ed

her engagement #ith the struggle for the total elimination of nuclear #ea"ons , 7ra=il chaired the )**I
Re3ie# Conference of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation %reat& and ga3e a strong "ush for the "ositi3e outcome of the )*0* Re3ie# Conference, #hich reaffirmed the $thirteen ste"s to disarmament$, ado"ted in )***, but #hich had fallen into obli3ion, %hese

ste"s #ere based on the "ro"osals made b& the Ne# 2genda Coalition, a grou" com"osed b& de3elo"ed and de3elo"ing countries of different regions, committed to a #orld free of nuclear #ea"ons,

Bra6il DA *ni1&eness Wall

Bra6il is p&rs&ing a egemonic strategy in face of 'eclining *2(2 infl&ence in t e region (talc&p/ 1, (%ra3is C,, George and 7arbara 7ush Fello# at the George @,D, 7ush !chool of Go3ernment and Public !er3ice at %e/as 2PM 9ni3ersit&, LDhat is 7ra=il 9" to #ith its Nuclear Polic&6,M Georgeto#n 'ournal of International 2ffairs, 0*-0*-0), htt"J--Fournal,georgeto#n,edu-)*0)-0*-0*-#hat-is-bra=il-u"-to-#ith-its-nuclear-"olic&-b&tra3is-stalcu"-, %ashma1 Dhat is 7ra=il u" to6 %hat is the Buestion national securit& "lanners should be as5ing, !ince abandoning its nuclear #ea"ons "rogram in the late 0??*s, 7ra=il has a""eared the model for non"roliferation, Relations
#ith 2rgentina, its longtime ri3al, ha3e #armed and the t#o states e3en coo"erate on nuclear and other securit& issues, Com"ared to the Middle East, !outh 2merica is stable and "eaceful, hardl& an en3ironment that #ould necessitate nuclear #ea"ons, Get, changes in 4atin 2merica and a "ercei3ed shift in the balance of "o#er a#a& from the Dest reBuire a reconsideration of that assessment, Moreo3er, 7ra=ils refusal to ado"t the Non-Proliferation %reat&s 2dditional Protocol and its

"ursuit of nuclear "ro"ulsion technolog& raise #orrisome Buestions about its intentions, %o 7ra=il, 4atin 2merica is not as stable as often belie3ed, %o the north, :ene=uela chaffs at the "ros"ect of 7ra=il
as regional hegemon, In )*0*, Russia and :ene=uela reached a deal to build the 4atin 2merican countr&s first nuclear reactor, 2lthough the "roFect #as scra""ed after the Fu5ushima disaster, the "ros"ect remains, :ene=uela has also challenged

7ra=ilian influence in 7oli3ia and Ecuador , t#o countries that ha3e or ha3e attem"ted to nationali=e the facilities of Petrobras, 7ra=ils state oil com"an&, In )**X, the go3ernment of @ugo Cha3e= le3ied a contro3ersial [)X) million ta/ on a 7ra=ilian construction firm, !uch actions ha3e riled 7ra=ilian leaders, Further north, the 9nited !tates, long the guarantor of !outh 2merican stabilit&, a""ears hamstrung b& economic challenges, 2ccording to former 2rgentine di"lomat Emilio CArdenas, 7ra=il belie3es that the Dest is in gradual decline and that 7ra=il is Foc5e&ing #ith other rising nations for "osition, %his shift in the balance of "o#er engenders a greater
degree of uncertaint& about 9,!, ca"abilities and intentions in the future, !uch uncertaint&, in addition to 7ra=ils ne# "olitical and economic "ro#ess, gi3es it the abilit& to challenge the 9,!, at the margins of its "o#er, Moreo3er, if the abilit& of the 9,!, to

maintain order in the hemis"here is trul& constrained, it is incumbent u"on the 7ra=ilian go3ernment to see5 alternati3e sources of securit&, %his "ercei3ed shift in the balance of "o#er "resents 7ra=il #ith an o""ortunit& for international leadershi", %hat is #h& 7ra=il is see5ing to achie3e a degree
of "olitical clout commensurate #ith its ne# economic "o#er, setting as its chief foreign "olic& goal a "ermanent seat on the 9nited Nations !ecurit& Council, 2 5e& com"onent of "ermanent membershi" is the abilit& to share the burdens of maintaining international securit&, Currentl&, there is some Buestion as to #hether 7ra=il is ca"able of such a charge, 4oo5ing at the current "ermanent members as #ell as the other 7RICs W Russia, India, and China W 7ra=il sees nothing but countries #ith nuclear #ea"ons, 2ccording to Kenneth Dalt=, the "reeminent realist international relations scholar, states mirror other

states W states #ithout nuclear #ea"ons see the "o#er and "restige of states #ith nuclear #ea"ons and the& #ant in, Former 7ra=ilian :ice President 'os< 2lencar #ho died last &ear, remar5ed that Pa5istan #on international rele3ance L"recisel& because it has a nuclear bomb,M 2 nuclear #ea"on #ould not onl& deter rogue neighbors but solidif& 7ra=ils regional dominance and "ro3e that it "ossesses the militar& ca"abilit& to contribute to international securit&, In addition to this "ercei3ed shift in the balance of "o#er, consider 7ra=ils more aggressi3e militar& strateg& from )**E to )*0* during the "residenc& of 4ui= InAcio 4ula da !il3a, Part of that strateg& is the de3elo"ment of an enormous nuclear attac5 submarine analogous
to Indias ballistic missile-ca"able 2rihant-class, In addition to its "otential as a missile "latform, the "ro"ulsion reactors in 7ra=ils submarines #ould reBuire a higher degree of uranium enrichment than those for commercial "o#er, "ossibl& abo3e ?* "ercent, In )**., 7ra=ilian 2mbassador to the 9nited !tates Roberto 2bdenu remar5ed that L submarines are not subFect to the

ZI2E2R safeguards regime,M %his inter"retation "ro3ides 7ra=il the ca"abilit& to enrich #ea"onsgrade uranium and de3elo" a full fuel c&cle outside of international scrutin& and #ithout 3iolating its agreements, such as the %reat& of %latelolco, Furthermore, although 7ra=il does "artici"ate in 3arious non"roliferation
agreements, it refuses to ado"t the 2dditional Protocol of the Non-Proliferation %reat& (NP%1, %his "rotocol #ould strengthen the International 2tomic Energ& 2genc& (I2E21s abilit& to detect clandestine #ea"ons "rograms through 3arious mechanisms, including a stronger ins"ections regime, 2ccording to 7ra=ils National !trateg& of Cefense, a "recondition to an& additional restrictions under the NP%, such as the 2dditional Protocol, is the disarmament of nuclear states, @o#e3er, e3en modest decreases in the nuclear in3entories of the 9nited !tates and Russia ha3e "ro3en difficult to accom"lish, If the 9,!, and Russia are unable or un#illing to disarm, 7ra=il feels no res"onsibilit& to ta5e further ste"s to tie its hands b& acceding to the 2dditional Protocol, %a5en

inde"endentl&, these actions are not necessaril& "ro3ocati3e, @o#e3er, #hen

one considers ho# 7ra=ils securit& en3ironment is changing, these actions bring 7ra=ils intentions into Buestion, %he "ercei3ed decline in the 9nited !tates #illingness and abilit& to inter3ene militaril& in 4atin 2merica, hostilit& of neighboring countries to 7ra=ils economic interests, and the ho"elessness of nuclear disarmament "ro3ide "o#erful incenti3es to e/"lore nuclear ca"abilit&, None can claim that 7ra=il is acti3el& "ursuing a nuclear #ea"on, but its
more asserti3e militar& "osture, refusal to sign the NP%s 2dditional Protocol, and "ursuit of nuclear "ro"ulsion technolog& should gi3e 2merican "olic&ma5ers and non"roliferation anal&sts "ause,

*( le' m&ltilateral organi6ations fail;Bra6il as trie' to co&nter!alance *( egemony Bran' et al 1,, 2le/ander 7rand is 4ecturer and Post-Coc Researcher at the Ce"artment of

Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Main=, !usan McE#en-Fial is 4ecturer at the Ce"artment of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Main=, Dolfgang Muno is :isiting Professor of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Erfurt, 2ndrea Ribeiro @offmann is 4ecturer at the Dill& 7randt !chool of Public Polic&, 9ni3ersit& of Erfurt, (*.-)*0), L7RICs and 9,!, @egemon&J %heoretical ReVections on !hifting Po#er Patterns and Em"irical E3idence from 4atin 2mericaM,Main= Pa"ers on International and Euro"ean Politics (MPIEP1 Pa"er No, ., htt"J--international,"olitics,uni-main=,de-files-)*0)-0*-m"ie"*.,"df,FF1 Concerning institutional inno3ation and the use of alliances a-o multilateral coordination S as a means to strengthen ones inVuence, things loo5 remar5abl& different, @ere #e can detect a mi/ture of institutional failure (>2!, F%221, the fostering of bi- and multilateral tradeS institutions as #ell as non-acti3ism on behalf of the 9,!, In contrast, e3en the Chinese ha3e WS as actors traditionall& and geogra"hicall& e/ternal to the region W signiTcantl& e/"anded theirS institutional ties to 42 latel&, !tate 3isits, a""lications for obser3er status, summits and common institutional frame#or5s constitute a relati3el& signiTcant le3el of acti3ism, 7ra=il, on theS other hand, has for &ears sought to use the institutional le3el to strengthen its status as regionalS "o#er (and "otential contender to 9,!, regional hegemon&1, @ere, the idea of an intendedS counterbalancing of 9,!, hegemon& is "articularl& clear, No# is t e .ey moment for Bra6ilian foreign po#er pro=ection B*9GE(/ 14 W PhC (Dar#ic51 in Politics and International !tudiesN M2 (Destern >ntario1 in Political !cience and 4ecturer in International Relations at 2N9 College of 2rts and !ocial !ciences (!ean, LP>!%-C@2:E] %E!% F>R 7R2]I4 4E2CER!@IP,M %he 2ustralian, March (, )*0E, 4e/isNe/is1--@24 :ENE]9E428s President @ugo Cha3e= has Fust died after a "rolonged battle #ith cancer, Dhile his death raises Buestions about the longe3it& and sustainabilit& of his 7oli3arian re3olution, it also stands as a significant test of the democrac&-"romoting credentials of 7ra=il and the t#o im"ortant regional clubs it runsJ the !outh 2merican "olitical grou"ing 9nasur and the trade bloc Mercosur, :ene=uela8s "residential
succession "rocedures are clear, 2rticle )E) of the constitution mandates a ne# election #ithin E* da&s if a "resident dies during the first four &ears of their term, %he Buestions man& are as5ing no# is if this 3ote #ill ha""en -- 3ice-"resident Nicolas Maduro sa&s nn&es88 -- and ho# democratic it #ill be, #hich is o"en to debate based on "ast "recedent, @istoricall&, a technicall& free 3ote on schedule #ould satisf& 7ra=il8s "ro-democrac& reBuisites, 7ut, e3ents in )*0) suggest 7ra=il ma& no# be 3aluing the s"irit as much as the "rocess of democrac&, :ene=uela8s u"coming 3ote stands as a test of this ne# "ro-democrac& "olic& in 7raslia, >n 'une )), )*0), Paragua&8s 4iberal and Colorado "arties Foined forces to im"each leftist "resident Fernando 4ugo in a "rocess that man& in the region no# call a nncou"-"eachment88, !trictl& s"ea5ing, the "rocess #as legal, but "oliticised to the "oint of farce, Charges #ere laid, a congressional trial held, and a con3iction deli3ered in less than a da&, Dhat astonished man& #as the degree of "olitical "ressure 7ra=ilian "resident Cilma Rousseff a""lied in Mercosur and 9nasur to "unish the "olitical factions that had de"osed her leftist all&, sus"ending Paragua& from both grou"ings, !uggestions that she #as sim"l& "la&ing ideological fa3ourites #ere strengthened #hen 7ra=il refused to ta5e a similarl& strong stance against :ene=uela #hen Cha3e= failed to ta5e his oath of office in 'anuar&, !uch criticism ma& ha3e been a bit unfair and missed the nuance in 7ra=il8s a""roach, 7ra=ilian "residential foreign "olic& ad3iser Marco 2urelio Garcia offered the o"inion, #hich became his countr&8s "olic&, that he agreed #ith the :ene=uela !u"reme Court Fudgment that as a re-elected "resident article )E. of the constitution allo#ed Cha3e= u" to si/ months lea3e of absence before a ne# election #ould be necessar&, In an act of Buiet bureaucratic resistance 7ra=ilian di"lomats "ointedl& noted that article )E) still a""lied and that "rom"t elections #ould be reBuired if Cha3e= died #ithin the ne/t four &ears, Dith ne# elections no# reBuired in

:ene=uela #e ha3e an o""ortunit& to see if there has been a real change in 7ra=il8s regional

foreign "olic& to ad3ancing substanti3e democrac& or if the 4ula-era tradition of selecti3el& ad3ocating a brand of "ro-leftist democratic outcomes remains in "lace , %he u"coming election in
:ene=uela is going to be difficult and di3isi3e, %he ob3ious strateg& for Maduro #ill be to #ra" himself in the mantle of Cha3e=8s memor& #hile @enriBue Ca"riles #ill li5el& resume his message of bringing Cha3e=8s social #elfare "olicies to a sustainable "ath, 2ll of this is an e/"ected "art of electoral "olitics, Dhere matters get tric5& is the e/tent to #hich Maduro de"lo&s e/ecuti3e "residential "o#ers to artificiall& boost his cam"aign, >ne standout tactic from the >ctober )*0) election #as Cha3e=8s "rocli3it& for mandating length& broadcasts of nngo3ernment ser3ice88 "rogramming to "re-em"t tele3ision co3erage of Ca"riles8s cam"aign e3ents, 2nother Buestion is #hether or not the militar& and securit& forces #ill ta5e on the role of "assi3e s"ectator e/"ected in a consolidated democrac& or if the& #ill directl& or co3ertl& interfere #ith the cam"aign, Indeed, the tem"tation for "olitical inter3ention b& some sectors in the militar& #ill be immense if re"orts about their lin5s to narcotraffic5ing and organised crime are correct, 7ra=il has

the bac5-room influence to "re3ent these sorts of 3iolations of the democratic s"irit of an election, Cilma, as #ell as 5e& ad3isers such as Garcia, ha3e enormous influence#ith the Cha3e= faithful, Moreo3er, Rousseff8s
)*0* "residential cam"aign ad3isers are li5el& to again "la& an im"ortant role in the "ro-Cha3e= electoral "ush, fulfilling much the same role as Clinton cam"aign hothouse Car3ille and 2ssociates did around the #orld in the )***s, 2 behind the scenes

stead&ing hand on Maduro-cam" tem"tations to undul& e/"loit their "osition of "o#er #ill be essential to the countr&8s future "olitical stabilit&, :ene=uelans #ill 5no# if the election is rigged, #hich #ould
erode the credibilit& of a "ossible Maduro 3ictor& and further "olarise the countr&, 7ut if he #ere to #in in a trul& clean race it could create the conditions needed for a national "olitical reconciliation, %he same holds true for a "ossible o""osition #in, E3en if

uncomfortable for di"lomats, hel"ing to ma5e this ha""en is e/actl& the sort of res"onsibilit& that goes #ith the regional leadershi" role 7ra=il has been claiming in !outh 2merica, PostCha3e= :ene=uela ma& "ro3e to be 7ra=il8s first real test, 7rics aiming for no less than a ne# #orld order, %@E fifth 7rics summit in Curban might #ell re"resent the emergence of an interesting ne# "o#er bloc, 7rics8s obFecti3e is to resha"e the international economic order b& challenging the historic dominance of the 9!, German&, the 9K and France, #ith a bloc com"osed largel& of countries of the global south, com"rising t#o international and three regional "o#ers, In "re3ious centuries, Russia8s stri3ing to become a #orld "o#er #as stifled b& the bac5#ardness of its "olitical institutions, It reBuired the social and "olitical re3olutions of 0?0(, follo#ed b& the industrial re3olution !talin brutall& im"osed on it, for Russia to sur3i3e the !econd Dorld Dar, ma5ing "ossible its emergence as a #orld "o#er, Russia8s old ruling classes "ro3ed inca"able of realising Peter the Great8s dream, 2fter the Cecembrist 9"rising of 0X)I, modernist intellectuals dashed their heads against the iron-clad defences of the ancien regime in their attem"ts to o3erthro# %sarism, It #as the intellectuals #ho ado"ted the most re3olutionar& ideas of their age, the 7olshe3i5s, #ho "ro3ed eBual to the tas5, raising Russia from a Euro"ean bac5#ater to the international "o#er it became after 0?.I, %he 7olshe3i5s defeated counterre3olution, su""orted b& 7ritain, France, the 9! and 'a"an, because the& offered the o""ressed nationalities of the %sarist em"ire autonom&, selfgo3ernment and eBualit&, 'ose"h :issariono3ich CFugash3ili, #ho assumed the "seudon&m !talin, #as the son of one such minorit&, the Georgians, China is the dominant economic "la&er in 7rics - made "ossible b& the radical transformation of a declining 2siatic des"otism b& re3olutionar& means, 2fter a centur& of "olitical and social u"hea3als from 0XI* to 0?I*, the communists reasserted China8s national so3ereignt&, reunited the countr& and created stabilit& b& offering leadershi" to a "easant re3olt that brought much-needed economic and social change, %he communists #ere the agents of modernisation in Russia and China, Ruthless "rogrammes of social engineering, dri3en b& the intelligentsia, recast them into modern industrial "o#ers, India, the #orld8s second-most "o"ulous countr& and its largest "arliamentar& democrac&, is a rich ta"estr& of languages and religions that has been moulded into one nation under the leadershi" of nationalist intellectuals, India has #restled #ith modernit& in an en3ironment riddled #ith the uncertainties of democratic go3ernment since inde"endence in 0?.(, Continuing tensions could not deter India from transforming itself into a leading centre for the design, manufacture and ser3icing of digital soft#are, 4i5e India, !2 is com"osed of a di3ersit& of racial, cultural and religious communities that #ill become a united nation than5s to an 2frican nationalist intelligentsia, %he ne#est member of the 7rics bloc, !2, #ith its relati3el& small econom& and "o"ulation, is 3isibl& "unching abo3e its #eight b&

associating #ith the four others, For close to a centur&, bac5#ard "olitical institutions frustrated its "otential, !28s economic de3elo"ment #as distorted b& #hite racism - its industrial econom& managed to address the needs of less than )*_ of its small "o"ulation, Get !28s economic muscle on the continent comes #ith a number of obligations, Peace and stabilit& in our region are essential for the realisation of !28s continental ambitions, >n the #orld stage, order and securit& in the oceans on #hich the countr&8s international trade relies ha3e reBuired !2 to reeBui" and modernise its na3&, >n a continent #here its relati3e "ros"erit& attracts thousands of legal and illegal migrants, !2 necessaril& is a status Buo "o#er, Bra6ilian egemony on t e rise no# --- e@erting po#er on an international scale ( ifter/ 1, (Michael, President of the Inter-2merican Cialogue, 2dFunct Professor of 4atin 2merican !tudies at Georgeto#n 9ni3ersit&8s !chool of Foreign !er3ice, L%he !hifting 4andsca"e of 4atin 2merican Regionalism,M Current @istor&, :olume 000, Issue (.), Februar& )*0), "g, I+-+0, ProBuest, %ashma1
For such a significant regional "o#er and emerging global "la&er - toda& it has the #orld8s si/th largest econom& - 7ra=il #as notabl& dela&ed in "romoting regional organi=ations in !outh 2merica, 2lthough Mercosur #as set u" in the earl& 0??*s, it #as not until )*** that then-President Fernando @enriBue Cardoso of 7ra=il con3ened the first meeting of !outh 2merican leaders, 7ut

7ra=il8s sheer si=e and economic and "olitical "o#er made such a turn to#ard greater engagement #ith the region highl& "lausible,

>3er the "ast do=en &ears 7ra=il8s a""roach to#ard its neighbors has been substantiall& sha"ed b& t#o connected obFecti3esJ the desire to 5ee" things under control in its immediate s"here of influence, and its "ursuit of global as"irations, >ne of 7ra=il8s main "riorities has been to secure a "ermanent seat on the 9nited Nations !ecurit& Council, It #as that aim - more than an& regional goals - that led 7ra=il to "la& a leading role in the 9N "eace5ee"ing mission in @aiti starting in )**., %he countr& has also sought a significant 3oice in other global arenas, It has acti3el& "artici"ated in the Dorld %rade >rgani=ation, and has been a serious, res"ected "la&er in the Grou" of )* in the conte/t of the recent economic crisis, Moreo3er, 7ra=il has em"hasi=ed alliances #ith other emerging "o#ers more than #ith other 4atin

2merican countries, 2s one of the so-called 7RIC! (along #ith Russia, India, China, and !outh 2frica1, 7ra=il has strengthened relationshi"s that are aimed at enhancing its le3erage #ith traditional "o#ers ,
"articularl& the 9nited !tates, 7ra=il has for the most "art "referred to deal #ith the 9nited !tates bilaterall&, and has been #ar& of an& hemis"here-#ide - and "resumabl& 9!-led - arrangements, such as the Free %rade 2rea of the 2mericas (F%221, a "ro"osal that emerged from the first !ummit of the 2mericas in Miami in 0??., Curing the 4ula era - and "articularl& its final &ears, #hen the countr& #itnessed remar5able economic 3italit& and gro#ing influence in global affairs - 7ra=il became increasingl& acti3e in social de3elo"ment efforts in 2frica, and

also tried its hand in Middle Eastern di"lomac&, Its boldest mo3e came in )*0* #ith a Foint "ro"osal de3elo"ed #ith %ur5e& to deal #ith Iran8s nuclear "rogram, 7ra=il8s accommodating a""roach
differed shar"l& from Dashington8s more hard-line "osture, reflecting mutual irritation that has been alle3iated some#hat during the current Rousseff administration,

2t the same time, 7ra=il has de3elo"ed more e/"ansi3e economic and "olitical roles #ithin the region, %he 4ula go3ernment de3oted considerable attention to building the 9nion of !outh 2merican Nations (9N 2!9R1, #hich
e3ol3ed from a fairl& loose, amor"hous grou"ing, %oda& 9N2!9R has a formall& organi=ed structure #ith a "ermanent secretariat that #as initiall& headed b& the former 2rgentine "resident N<stor Kirchner, 2lthough other leaders res"onded to the 7ra=ilian initiati3e #ith 3ar&ing degrees of enthusiasm - Peru3ian President 2lan Garc a sho#ed little interest and Colombian President 2l3aro 9ribe #as notabl& resistant - the e/clusi3el& !outh 2merican organi=ation a""ears to ha3e ta5en hold,

Bra6il DA Lin. Wall

Bra6il controls Latin American infl&ence;increase' *( presence 'isr&pts regional po#er !alances Bet ell/ 1? - English historian, uni3ersit& "rofessor, and 7ra=ilianist #ho s"ecialises in the stud& of 0?th and )*th Centur& 4atin 2merica, em"hasi=ing on 7ra=il in "articular, PhC in @istor& at the 9ni3ersit& of 4ondon (4eslie, L7ra=il and L4atin 2mericaM,M 'ournal of 4atin 2merican !tudies, !tudies, "age .+(-.XI, :olume .) - Issue *E - 2ugust )*0*, htt"J--Fournals,cambridge,org-abstractQ!**)))0+a0****XXa1--@24 7ra=il and !outh 2merica since the End of the Cold Dar %here is one final t#ist to this stor& of 7ra=ils relationshi" #ith ^2memrica 4atina-^4atin 2merica, 2s a result of the end of the Cold Dar, the "rofound changes in #orld "olitics that follo#ed, the intensification of the "rocess of globalisation and, not least, fundamental "olitical and economic change in 7ra=il itself, 7ra=ils "resence and influence in the #orld has gro#n significantl&, es"eciall& under the "residencies of Fernando @enriBue Cardoso (0??IW)**E1 and 4ui= Inamcio 4ula da !il3a ()**EW0*1, 7ra=il has "la&ed an increasingl& im"ortant role in NorthW!outh and !outhW!outh relations and has been a 5e& "la&er in discussions on a #hole range of global issues, including trade, reform of multilateral institutions and climate change, 7ra=il is considered internationall&, along #ith China and India, as one of the ^emerging global "o#ers in the first half of the t#ent&-first centur&, 2t the same time, there has been a maFor de3elo"ment in 7ra=ils relations #ith the other states in its region, 7ra=il has continued to su""ort the #or5 of the >rganisation of 2merican !tates, founded in 0?.X at the ninth Pan- 2merican Conference in 7ogotam, and its "residents ha3e attended all fi3e !ummits of the 2mericas held since Cecember 0??., #hile resisting the 9! agenda for the economic integration of the #estern hemis"here, 7ra=il has attended the annual meetings of
the Rio Grou" of 4atin 2merican and Caribbean states, founded in 0?X+, and is no# gi3ing its su""ort to the "ro"osed creation of a communit& of all E) 4atin 2merican and Caribbean states, 7ut 7ra=il has also, for the first time in its histor&,

acti3el& "ursued a "olic& of engagement, both economic and "olitical, #ith its immediate neighbours in !outh 2merica, %his #as a conscious decision deliberatel& ta5en in 0??)WE, reinforced b& the fact that in 0??. Me/ico Foined the 9nited !tates and Canada in ^North 2merica, President Cardoso hosted the first summit of !outh 2merican "residents in 7rasomlia in )***, 2t the third summit
held in Cusco in Cecember )**., during the 4ula administration, a !outh 2merican Communit& of Nations #as formed, It consisted of 0) nations, including Gu&ana and !uriname, 2t the summit held in 7rasomlia in Ma& )**X the communit& became a 9nion of !outh 2merican Nations (9N2!9R1, Im"ro3ed relations #ith its !outh 2merican neighbours and, indeed, the economic and "olitical integration of !outh 2merica has been the "rinci"al focus of 7ra=ilian foreign "olic& under President 4ula, 2lso for the first time, and #ith a good deal of hesitanc&, uncertaint& and ambi3alence, 7ra=il has begun to thin5 of itself as a

regional "o#er, not onl& in its long-term economic and strategic interests but because, it is argued in Itamarat&, regional "o#er is a necessar& condition for global "o#er, %he region in Buestion,
ho#e3er, is !outh 2merica, not 4atin 2merica,++

Bra6il #ill re"olt if *( steps into t eir sp ere of infl&ence (otero/ 1? director of the 7ra=il Institute of the Doodro# Dilson International Center for !cholars, M2 in 'ournalism and Public 2ffairs from the 2merican 9ni3ersit&, adFunct lecturer at Edmund 2, Dalsh !chool of Foreign !er3ice, Georgeto#n 9ni3ersit& (Paulo, L7ra=il8s Rising 2mbition in a !hifting Global 7alance of Po#er,M Pers"ecti3es on the Changing Global Cistribution of Po#er :olume E*, Issue !u""lement s0, "ages (0WX0, Cecember )*0*1--@24 2lthough 7ra=il has begun to assert itself on the global stage in the t#ent&-first centur& , historicall& the
nation8s #orld "ers"ecti3e has been hea3il& conditioned b& geogra"h&, From the earl& &ears of the re"ublic, in the late nineteenth centur&, the 5e& foreign "olic& obFecti3es #ere the consolidation of the national territor& through the "eaceful resolution of all border dis"utes and the "ursuit of closer ties #ith a then emerging 9nited !tates, >ne hundred &ears later, President Cardoso

set 7ra=il in a ne# direction in regional affairs, in order to assert the countr&8s autonom& #hile "ushing for integration #ith its immediate neighbours, Dith the nation8s "osition strengthened b& the legitimac& of its democratic regime and successful economic stabilisation "olicies, Cardoso sought to define 7ra=il8s

s"here of influence b& engaging its !outh 2merican neighbours in a strateg& of economic integration inde"endent of the 9!, In !e"tember )***, he con3ened in 7ras lia the first-e3er summit of !outh
2merican "residents (>EI, )***1, !i/ months later, s"ea5ing at the %hird !ummit of the 2mericas in guebec Cit&, Cardoso made clear 7ra=il8s sce"ticism of the continent-#ide integration "roFect the 9nited !tates #as "romoting b& #a& of the "ro"osed Free %rade 2rea of the 2mericas (Cardoso, )**0, ", E1J ^the F%22 #ill be #elcome if its creation is a ste" to#ards access to the most d&namic mar5etsN if it is an effecti3e #a& to shared rules on anti-dum"ingN if it reduces non-tariff barriersN if it a3oids the "rotectionist distortions of the good sanitar& rulesN if, #hile "rotecting intellectual "ro"ert&, it fosters our "eo"les technological ca"acit&N and, furthermore, if it goes be&ond the 9rugua& Round and correct the as&mmetries it enshrined in agricultural trade, If it does not do so, ZF%22R #ould be irrele3ant or, in the #orse h&"othesis, undesirable, 4ula sta&ed the course on regional affairs, In the first &ear of his go3ernment, 7ra=il bloc5ed further negotiations of the F%22 , %he ne# "resident, ho#e3er, substantiall& changed 7ra=il8s st&le of di"lomac&, in fa3our of a more 3ocal foreign "olic&, reflecti3e of his talent as a charismatic leader #ho lo3es the limelight and does #ell on the stum", In his first tri" abroad as "resident, he said in guito, Ecuador, that his countr&8s di"lomac& #ould ^blossom, 4ula described 7ra=il as the region8s ^natural leader and "roclaimed that the countr& #as ^read& to assume its greatness (:eFa, )**E, ", +X1, 7ra=il sought to e/"and e/isting regional mechanisms, such as Mercosur, b& "ro"osing the accession of :ene=uela, and "romoted the creation of ne# ones, such as the 9nion of !outh 2merican Nations, the !outh 2merican Cefence Council and the Communit& of 4atin 2merica and Caribbean !tates in order to "romote faster integration, In mid-)**., 7ra=il assumed the militar& command of the 9N stabilisation mission in @aiti, a bold mo3e calculated to enhance 7ra=il8s credentials as a candidate to a "ermanent seat on the 9N!C, according to Clo3is 7rigagpo (>sa3a, )**+1, %he regional acti3ism of the 4ula administration led his go3ernment to act to defuse the internal crisis in 7oli3ia, after forgi3ing the countr&8s "resident, E3o Morales, for unceremoniousl& nationalising Petrobras assets in 7oli3ia, 7ra=il e/"anded staffs of its embassies in the region and established a total of EI ne# ones, mostl& in the de3elo"ing #orld, %he "o#erful 7ra=ilian National 7an5 for Ce3elo"ment (7NCE!1 became an instrument of the regional "olic&, 7& )**?, the ban5 had more than [0I,( billion in lines of credit e/tended to countries interested in contracting 7ra=ilian com"anies8 ser3ices (7IC, )**?1, !ur"risingl&, 7ra=il8s acti3ism in regional affairs did not e/tend to efforts to settle dis"utes bet#een neighbours W a "oint not lost on critics of 4ula8s Iran initiati3e, ^%he Iranian ad3enture is incom"rehensible, es"eciall& since there are 3arious conflicts closer to us #hich #e ha3en8t tried, or ha3en8t managed, to mediate, noted !<rgio 2maral (%he Economist, 0( 'une )*0*1, In contrast #ith the Cardoso go3ernment, #hich had, #ith the 9!, Chile and 2rgentina, successfull& mediated the 0??I border dis"ute bet#een Peru and Ecuador, the 4ula administration did not get in3ol3ed in a dis"ute bet#een 2rgentina and 9rugua&, both 7ra=il8s "artners in Mercosur, o3er the o"eration of a cellulose "lant on the 9rugua&an side of the 9rugua& Ri3er, 7ras lia also sho#ed no interest in hel"ing to lo#er tensions and a3oid a "ossible militar& confrontation bet#een :ene=uela and Colombia, #hich border 7ra=il, 4ula8s attem"t to bring Caracas and 7ogota closer together in 2ugust )*0*, after ChA3e= se3ered di"lomatic relations #ith Colombia, reacting to accusations of harbouring F2RC rebel grou"s in :ene=uela, had little im"act and did not alter the mismatch bet#een 7ra=il8s assertions of leadershi" at the global le3el and its modest interest in assumeing the ris5s of leadershi" closer to home, #here it should ha3e a better chance of success, %here are 3arious "ossible reasons for the 4ula go3ernment8s lac5 of a""etite to mediate in regional conflicts, !uch dis"utes generate little interest and no "olitical di3idends in 7ra=il, 2n amalgamation of 2frican descendants indigenous "eo"les and Euro"ean and 2sian immigrants #ho s"ea5 Portuguese, 7ra=ilians do not see themsel3es as 4atin 2mericans, @istoricall&, the& ha3e been Buite distant from their immediate neighbours (7ethell, )**?1, Moreo3er, the region is seen more as a source of "otential "roblems than as "resenting o""ortunities for 7ra=il, 2 sur3e& of senior di"lomats, business e/ecuti3es, scholars and o"inionma5ers conducted in )**0 and )**X indicated decreased su""ort for "ursuing relations #ith the region (Ce !ou=a, )**X1, %his finding suggests that !outh 2merica and 4atin 2merica are generall& "ercei3ed b& 7ra=ilian elites as a "oor "latform for 7ra=il to "roFect itself as a global "o#er, Nonetheless, there are a fe# indications that suggest that the 4ula go3ernment has come to see the region as 3aluable to the e/ercise of leadershi" in so far as it hel"s to "roFect 7ra=il8s o""osition to 9! dominance, From the earl& da&s of the re"ublic, there has been an anti-2merican strand among 7ra=ilian elites , %his strand is

li5el& to be manifest in the foreign "olic& of an& go3ernment of an ascendant 7ra=il , the onl& countr& emerging in the 9nited !tates8s so-called ^bac5 &ard, %he 9! recession and a general disa""ointment #ith 9! President 7arac5 >bama8s timid "olicies for the hemis"here W on Cuba, trade and regional
securit& W strengthened the hand of 5e& figures in 4ula8s foreign "olic& 5no#n for their lac5 of s&m"ath& to the 9!, and reinforced a tendenc& to distance 7ra=il from Dashington, In the re3erberations of the Dall !treet colla"se, in

Cecember )**X 7ra=il con3ened a summit to launch the 4atin 2merica and Caribbean Communit& of Nations W an e3ent "lanned to highlight 7ra=ilian leadershi" in regional affairs and underline the 9!8s loss of influence, ^%here is no Buestion that this is about e/clusion, about e/cluding the 9nited !tates (Peter @a5im, Buoted in the 7arrionue3o, )**X1, %here #as also the ill-disguised
confrontation bet#een 7ras lia and Dashington o3er ho# to res"ond to the 'une )**? constitutional crisis in @onduras, "reci"itated b& a cou" against President Manuel ]ela&a, %he 4ula go3ernment8s une/"ected and ultimatel& unsuccessful inter3ention in the @onduras crisis sho#ed again that #hile 7ra=il has not generall& sought to assert its regional

leadershi", it has been more than #illing to stand u" to the 9nited !tates,

Bra6il DA Africa War Impact

Brailian egemony sol"es Africa #ar W ite/ 1? W PhC in Political !tudies from the 9ni3ersit& of Ca"e %o#n, inde"endent researcher and consultant s"ecialising in "olitical econom& issues in 2frica, 2sia and 4atin 2merica, Gordon Institute of 7usiness !cience, 9ni3ersit& of Pretoria, !outh 2frica (4&al, L9nderstanding 7ra=ils ne# dri3e for 2frica,M !outh 2frican 'ournal of International 2ffairs, htt"J--###,tandfonline,com,e="0,lib,umn,edu-doi-abs-0*,0*X*-0*))*.+0,)*0*,.?.E.Ik,9cE .I=sB]s51--@24
7ra=ils ne# 2frica strateg&J "olitical di"lomac&, neo-mercantilism and de3elo"ment coo"eration 7ra=ils contem"orar& relations #ith 2frica ma& at first a""ear to be a com"le/ H e3en "oorl& defined H mi/ of "olitical alliances (old and ne#1 and commercial interests, under"inned b& foreign "olic& "riorities that ha3e 3aried from administration to administration in 7ra=il, >n closer ins"ection, ho#e3er, 7ra=ils

relations #ith 2frica can be neatl& di3ided into three broad categories, a useful strategic ma" of 7ra=ils engagement #ith 2frica #hich correlates strongl& #ith 7ra=ils broader foreign "olic& goals as an emerging global "o#er, %he first categor& is "olitical di"lomac& and 7ra=ils multilateral engagement #ith 2frica ,
Dhile these ma& be interrelated, the& certainl& do offer %his has been a "rimar& feature of 7ra=ilian foreign "olic& under President 4ula, #ho single-handedl& changed the face of 7ra=ilian international engagement and multilateral acti3ism during his t#o terms in office, 9nder 4ula, 7ra=ils multi"olar

a""roach re"rioritised the de3elo"ing !outh through 3arious multilateral forums and "laced s"ecial attention on 2frica through un"recedented direct attentio n and 3isits, ad3ancing the historical
7ra=ilian notion of res"onsible "ragmatism #ith uni3ersal democratic "rinci"les, and de3elo"ment through increased globalisation, %he second categor& is trade and in3estment, #herein certain 7ra=ilian com"anies ha3e maintained a long

standing interest (es"eciall& in luso"hone 2frica1, @o#e3er, the recent surge of interest sho#n b& emerging 7ra=ilian
MNCs in resource e/traction, construction and agriculture be&ond the former Portuguese colonies to other "arts of 2frica re"resent a ne# era of commercial e/changes bet#een 2frica and 7ra=il, #hich certainl& a""ears to be a strong dri3er of

7ra=ilian foreign "olic& on the continent, Finall&, de3elo"ment and de3elo"ment co-o"eration ha3e become an
im"ortant com"onent of 7ra=ilian foreign "olic&, and is sure to be a "rinci"al dri3er of foreign "olic& in 2frica, 7ra=ils relati3e success in social de3elo"ment "rogrammes in its o#n countr& has made it a "rimar& e/"orter of ^social technolog& to other de3elo"ing countries, %his has become an im"ortant tool in is foreign "olic& in the de3elo"ing #orld, 2frica is clearl& an im"ortant arena for the e/ercise of 7ra=ils ne# foreign "olic& a""roaches, Its engagement in 2frica is generall& #ell-

recei3ed, 7ra=il seems to ha3e o"ted for a middle-ground a""roach bet#een the Chinese-st&le of engagement H #hich is highl&
"olitical and su""orted b& the #eight of the state-run machiner& behind in3estments and de3elo"ment initiati3esHand the Indian a""roachH#hich is characterised more b& "ri3ate sector in3estments and entre"reneurial acti3ities across the continent, %his is

continent in need of "olitical su""ort and better re"resentation through functional coalitions at multilateral forums, 2frica also needs in3estment in resource e/traction, in construction and ci3il engineering (all areas of commercial focus for 7ra=ilian com"anies1, and de3elo"ment co-o"eration, as #ell as increased technolog& and 5no#ledge transfers, 2frica is an ideal location for rolling out 7ra=ilian-st&led social "rogrammes and to "ut in "ractise nuanced a""roaches to enter"rise and technolog&-led de3elo"ment, #hich #ill test the real #orld a""lication of 7ra=ils instructi3e lessons for de3elo"ing countries, In turn, beside reliable access to strategic resources li5e oil, 7ra=il also see5s "olitical su""ort from
2frican countries in 3arious global forums, es"eciall& in its "ursuit of "ermanent membershi" of the 9nited Nations !ecurit& Council (9N!C1 and, more generall&, their recognition of 7ra=il as a leading global "o#er, Political di"lomac&, geo"olitics and multilateral engagement 7ra=ils "rioritising of 2frica in the current "eriod can be attributed largel& to President 4ula,)+!ince ta5ing office in )**E, 4ula has 3isited no less than 0? 2frican countries in eight tri"s, Curing this time 7ra=il has doubled the number of

its embassies in 2frica to E*,)( and 4ula #as in3ited as a s"ecial guest to the 2frican 9nion summit in !irte, 4ib&a, in )**?,
7ra=il has hosted a number of large second trac5 initiati3es #ith 2frican academics and "olic& thin5ers and #as behind the creation of the !outh 2merica2frica summit,)X In )**( 4ula stated that, ^!outh 2merica is a "riorit& in 7ra=ilian e/ternal "olic&, >ur region is our home ,,,De also feel oursel3es connected to 2frica through cultural and historical threads, @a3ing the second largest blac5 "o"ulation in the #orld, #e are committed to share the destin& and challenges of the region, )?Dith these #ords 4ula set a "olitical "recedence for his administration and those that follo#, >n a "ersonal note, 4ula has also "ledged his commitment to alle3iating "o3ert& in 2frica #hen he lea3es office at the end of )*0*,E* 2ll these efforts ha3e hel"ed build 7ra=ilian ^soft

"o#er in 2frica, and "articularl& in countries li5e 2ngola #here the 4ula administration has ad3anced e/isting cultural and historical lin5ages through di"lomatic e/changes and a range of agreements, 7ra=ils "olitical ad3ances ha3e also brought targeted funding, credit lines and technical assistance to 2frica, %he 7ra=ilian Ce3elo"ment 7an5
(7NCE!1 and the 7ra=ilian 2gricultural Research Cor"oration (EM7R2P21 ha3e rolled out a number of de3elo"ment initiati3es

across the continent, the fact of #hich has gone a long #a& in de3elo"ing 7ra=ils strategic interests and "romoting the countr& in the e&es of 2fricans, %he role of 7NCE! and EM7R2P2, #hich ha3e become an im"ortant "art of 7ra=ils commercial e/"ansion and dri3e for de3elo"ment coo"eration in 2frica, #ill be described in more detail in the t#o sections that follo#, From a geo"olitical or multilateral "ers"ecti3e, these ^on-the ground efforts H #hich go be&ond high "rofile but largel& 3acuous "olitical 3isits H ha3e not gone unnoticed among 2frican leaders, In turn, 7ra=il, li5e an& emerging "o#er in 2frica, see5s "ri3ileged status for its contractors and de3elo"ment "lans, 7e&ond this, 2frican su""ort for 7ra=ils grand "lans of global go3ernance reform

is im"ortant, %his is es"eciall& the case in the 9N #here each nation has a 3ote and 7ra=il is 3&ing for a "ermanent seat on the
9N !ecurit& Council,

Large-scale African conflict #ill 'ra# in o&tsi'e po#ers an' escalate to n&clear #ar De&tsc ?, W Founder of Rabid %iger ProFect (Political Ris5 Consulting and Research Firm focusing on Russia and
Eastern Euro"e 'effre&, L!E%%ING %@E !%2GE F>R D>R4C D2R III,M Rabid %iger Ne#sletter, No3 0X, htt"J--###,rabidtigers,com-rtn-ne#sletter3)n?,html %he Rabid %iger ProFect belie3es that a nuclear #ar

is most li5el& to start in 2frica, Ci3il #ars in the Congo (the countr& formerl& 5no#n as ]aire1, R#anda, !omalia and !ierra 4eone, and domestic instabilit& in ]imbab#e, !udan and other countries, as #ell as occasional brushfire and other #ars (than5s in "art to $national$ borders that cut across tribal ones1 turn into a reall& nast& ste#, De83e got all too man& rabid tigers and "otential rabid tigers, #ho are #illing to "ush the button rather than ris5 being seen as #ish&-#ash& in the face of a mortal threat and o3erthro#n, Geo"oliticall& s"ea5ing, 2frica is o"en range, :er& fe# countries in 2frica are beholden to an& "articular "o#er, !outh 2frica is a maFor e/ce"tion in this res"ect - not to mention in that she also "robabl& alread& has the 7omb, %hus, outside "o#ers can more easil& find client states there than, sa&, in Euro"e #here the "olitical
lines ha3e long since been dra#n, or 2sia #here man& of the countries (China, India, 'a"an1 are "o#ers unto themsel3es and don8t need an& $hel",$ than5 &ou, %hus, an 2frican #ar can attract outside in3ol3ement 3er& Buic5l& , >f course, a "ro/& #ar alone ma& not induce the Great Po#ers to fight each other ,

7ut an 2frican nuclear stri5e can ignite a much broader conflagration, if the other "o#ers are interested in a fight, Certainl&, such a stri5e #ould in the first "lace ha3e been facilitated b& outside hel" - financial, scientific, engineering, etc, 2frica is an ocean of troubled #aters, and some "eo"le lo3e to go fishing,

Bra6il DA AID( Impact

Bra6il regional lea'ers ip is .ey to sol"e AID( Kelle& Lee, 4ui= Carlos C agas/ an' %homas E, No"otny/ 1? W (01 Centre on Global Change and @ealth, 4ondon !chool of @&giene P %ro"ical Medicine, 4ondon, 9nited Kingdom, ()1 Inde"endent Researcher W Public @ealth and %rade Policies, 4ondon, 9nited Kingdom, (E1 Graduate !chool of Public @ealth, !an Ciego !tate 9ni3ersit&, !an Ciego, California, 9nited !tates of 2merica (7ra=il and the Frame#or5 Con3ention on %obacco ControlJ Global @ealth Ci"lomac& as !oft Po#er,M 2"ril )*, )*0*, htt"J--###,"losmedicine,org-article-fetch>bFect,action6uriOinfo_E2doi _)F0*,0E(0_)FFournal,"med,0***)E)Pre"resentationOPCF1--@24 7ra=ils Ne# Prominence in Global @ealth 7ra=il has become increasingl& "rominent in international relations in recent &ears through its leadershi" in climate change Z(R, trade, energ& "olic&, and nuclear non"roliferation negotiations ZXR, 7& combining economic gro#th #ith "rogressi3e domestic social "olicies, the countr& has defied orthodo/ thin5ing on de3elo"ment , It has been in the realm of global health, ho#e3er, that 7ra=ilian di"lomac& has been "articularl& note#orth&, beginning #ith negotiations on access to medicines for treatment of @I:-2IC! , 7ecause of its constitutional reBuirement for eBuit& in access to antiretro3iral (2R:1 thera"& Z?R, and the "olitical #ill to address the issue, 7ra=il successfull& confronted and negotiated a satisfactor& resolution to barriers im"osed on drug a3ailabilit& b& the 2greement on %radeRelated 2s"ects of Intellectual Pro"ert& Rights
(%RIP!1, Dith the 9! go3ernment aligning #ith "o#erful cor"orate interests, 7ra=ils cham"ioning of free and uni3ersal access to 2R:s earned #orld#ide res"ect among "ublic health ad3ocates Z0*R, Dhile other countries, such as %hailand and !outh 2frica, also sought to challenge the "harmaceutical industr& on restricti3e "ricing "olicies, as Nunn and colleagues argue, 7ra=il became

the first de3elo"ing countr& to offer free 2R: treatment to @I:-2IC! "atients des"ite claims b& the Dorld 7an5 that such a "olic& #as not cost-effecti3e Z00R, Im"ortantl&, the countr& has seen a dramatic decline in 2IC! related morbidit& and mortalit& as a result of its treatment "rogram, a success stor& that has ser3ed as a role model for the e/"ansion of global su""ort for @I:- 2IC! treatment in other countries, In this #a&, 7ra=il hel"ed bridge a chasm bet#een "ublic health and trade "olic& through its national @I:-2IC! "olic& Z0)R, AID( #ill .ill &n're's of millions if not stoppe'2 It t reatens to e@ting&is life on t e planet Mathiu, )K W (Mutuma, 2frica Ne#s, 'ul& 0I, )***, L2IC!J Ce3astationqM 4e/isNe/is1 E3er& age has its 5iller, 7ut 2ids is #ithout "recedent, It is com"arable onl& to the 7lac5 Ceath of the Middle
2ges in the terror it e3o5es and the gra3es it fills, 7ut unli5e the "lague, 2ids does not come at a time of scientific innocenceJ It flies in the face of s"ace e/"loration, the mani"ulation of genes and the ma""ing of the human genome, %he 7lac5 Ceath - the "lague, toda& easil& cured b& antibiotics and "re3ented b& 3accines - 5illed a full .* million Euro"eans, a Buarter of the "o"ulation of Euro"e, bet#een 0E.( and 0EI), 7ut it #as a death that could be a3oided b& the sim"le e/"edient of changing addresses and #hose 3ector could be seen and e/terminated, Dith 2ids, the 3ector is humanit& itself, the nice "erson in the ne/t seat in the bus, %here is no#here to run and no#here to hide, E3er& human being #ho e/"resses the innate desire to "reser3e the human genetic "ool through the natural mechanism of re"roduction is "otentiall& at

ris5, 2nd #hereas death b& "lague #as a merciful fi3e da&s of agon&, @I: is not satisfied until &ears of stigma and e/cruciating torture ha3e been #rought on its 3ictim, %he "lague toll of tens of millions in t#o decades #as a 3eritable holocaust, but it #ill be nothing com"ared to the 3iral holocaustJ !o far, 0X,X million "eo"le are alread& deadN .E,E million infected #orld#ide ().,I million of them 2fricans1 carr& the seeds of their ine3itable demise - un#illing "artici"ants in a March of the Camned, 4ast &ear alone, ),X million li3es #ent do#n the drain, XI "er cent of them 2fricanN as a matter of fact, +,*** 2fricans #ill die toda&, %he dail& toll in Ken&a is I**, %here has ne3er been fought a #ar on these shores that #as so #anton in its thirst for human blood, Curing the First Dorld Dar, more than a million li3es #ere lost at the 7attle
of the !omme alone, setting a trend that #as to become fairl& common, in #hich generals #ould use soldiers as cannon fodderN the li3es of 0* million &oung men #ere sacrificed for a cause that #as Fudged to be more #orth#hile than the dreams - e3en the mere li3ing out of a lifetime - of a generation, 7ut there #as "roffered an e/"lanationJ It #as the honour of bathing a battlefield #ith &oung blood, "atriotism or sim"l& racial "ride, 2ids, on the other hand, is a holocaust #ithout e3en a lame or bigoted

Fustification, It is sim"l& a #aste, It is death contracted not in the battlefield but in bedrooms and other 3enues of furti3e
intimac&, It is difficult to remember an& time in histor& #hen the sur3i3al of the human race #as so ho"elessl& in Feo"ard&,

Bra6il DA B9IC( Impact

Bra6ils regional infl&ence is .ey to B9IC C ristensen/ 14 - 2ssociate Professor at 2alborg 9ni3ersit&, PhC in !ocialog& and !ocial Condition (!teen Fr&ba, 2"ril )Erd, )*0E, L7ra=ils Foreign Polic& Priorities,M %hird Dorld guarterl&, :ol, E., No, ), )*0E, "" )(0W)X+, htt"J--d/,doi,org-0*,0*X*-*0.E+I?(,)*0E,((I(XI1--@24 !ince )**E 7ra=il has been acti3el& engaged in an agenda of diffusion of global "o#er and of gaining more inVuence in global go3ernance both in the economic and in the securit& realms, It has sought to defend national autonom&, strengthen its econom& and gain more inVuence in the global "olitical arena, 7ra=il has "rioritised !outhW!outh coo"eration in order to reach these aims, Relations #ith !outh
2merican countries and the other countries of the 7RIC! grou"ing ha3e been "rioritised, %his builds on t#o main logics, >ne is that

!outh 2merica is im"ortant in 7ra=ils geo"olitical strateg& and in the aim of creating a 7ra=ilian s"here of interest, as #ell as a "latform for 7ra=ils com"etiti3e insertion in the global econom&, 7ra=il has been relati3el& successful in these regard, #ith the creation of the !outh 2merican Cefence Council, signiTcant economic trade and in3estment lin5s, and infrastructural de3elo"ments im"ro3ing access to 7ra=ilian e/"ort mar5ets in 2sia and in !outh 2merica itself, 7RIC! coo"eration largel& builds on a common interest in
gaining more inVuence in the global economic and "olitical order, %his strateg& has been relati3el& successful as 7RIC! are increasingl& inVuential "la&ers in global economic go3ernance, although this has not assured an agreement in multilateral trade negotiations at the D%>, @o#e3er, the global securit& order is still dominated b& the 9!2 and its Destern allies, and 7ra=il is still far from gaining a "ermanent "osition on the 9N !ecurit& Council and cannot e3en rel& on e/"licit su""ort from China and Russia, #hich are members, 7ra=ilian strategies ha3e been broadl& successful , 2t the regional le3el the council has successfull& "romoted the establishment of a Common Cefence Council in 9nasur, ma5ing !outh 2merica a securit& region, %his means that !outh 2merica has increasingl& become 7ra=ils s"here of inVuence , @o#e3er, !outh 2merica is not a cohesi3e bloc, as national interests and strategies di3erge signiTcantl&, %herefore 9nasur functions strictl& as an intergo3ernmental institution based on the res"ect of national so3ereignt& and autonomous "olic& ma5ing, Ne3ertheless, the

region functions #ell from the "ers"ecti3e of 7ra=ilian de3elo"ment and global "o#er "roFection, 2rguabl& 7ra=ils main "riorit& has mo3ed from !outh 2merican coo"eration to its coo"eration #ith the other members of 7RIC!, %he coalition has become an increasingl& im"ortant "la&er in 5e& multilateral institutions, %his has created a situation in #hich the traditional Destern "o#ers increasingl& need to negotiate
matters of securit& and economic go3ernance #ith emerging "o#ers,

%&ltipolarity .ey to pre"enting n&clear #ar Dyer/ C?E (G#&nne, militar& historian and lecturer on international affairs, L%he End of DarM, %oronto !tar, 0)-E*-)**., htt"J--###,commondreams,org-3ie#s*.-0)E*-*I,htm1
Dar is dee"l& embedded in our histor& and our culture, "robabl& since before #e #ere e3en full& human, but #eaning oursel3es a#a& from it should not be a bigger mountain to climb than some of the other changes #e ha3e alread& made in the #a& #e li3e, gi3en the right incenti3es, 2nd #e ha3e certainl& been gi3en the right incenti3esJ %he holida& from histor& that #e

ha3e enFo&ed since the earl& 8?*s ma& be dra#ing to an end, and another great-"o#er #ar, fought ne/t time #ith nuclear #ea"ons, ma& be lur5ing in our future 2 %he $firebrea5$ against nuclear #ea"ons use that #e began building after @iroshima and Nagasa5i has held for #ell o3er half a centur& no#, 7ut the "roliferation of nuclear #ea"ons to ne# "o#ers is a maFor challenge to the stabilit& of the s&stem, !o are the coming crises, mostl& en3ironmental in origin, #hich #ill hit some countries much harder than others, and ma&
dri3e some to des"eration, 2dd in the huge im"ending shifts in the great-"o#er s&stem as China and India gro# to ri3al the 9nited !tates in GCP o3er the ne/t E* or .* &ears and it #ill be hard to 5ee" things from s"inning out of control, Dith good luc5 and

good management, #e ma& be able to ride out the ne/t half-centur& #ithout the first-magnitude catastro"he of a global nuclear #ar, but the "otential certainl& e/ists for a maFor die-bac5 of human "o"ulation 2 De cannot command the good luc5, but good management is something #e can choose to "ro3ide, It de"ends, abo3e all, on "reser3ing and e/tending the multilateral s&stem that #e ha3e been building since the end of Dorld Dar II, %he rising "o#ers must be absorbed into a s&stem that em"hasi=es co-o"eration and ma5es room for them/ rather than one that deals in confrontation and ra# militar& "o#er, If the& are obliged to "la& the traditional great-"o#er game of #inners and losers, then histor& #ill re"eat itself and e3er&bod& loses, >ur ho"es for mitigating the se3erit& of the coming en3ironmental crises also de"end on earl& and concerted global

action of a sort that can onl& ha""en in a basicall& co-o"erati3e international s&stem, Dhen the great
"o#ers are loc5ed into a militar& confrontation, there is sim"l& not enough s"are attention, let alone enough trust, to ma5e deals on those issues, so the highest "riorit& at the moment is to 5ee" the multilateral a""roach ali3e and a3oid a

drift bac5 into alliance s&stems and arms races, 2nd there is no "oint in dreaming that #e can lea" straight into
some ne3er-land of uni3ersal brotherhoodN #e #ill ha3e to confront these challenges and sol3e the "roblem of #ar #ithin the conte/t of the e/isting state s&stem,

Bra6il is .ey to B9IC Lai'i/ 11 W Professor at the Euro"ean Center of the 'ohns @o"5ins 7ologna, Research Professor at the Centre dEtudes Euro"<ennes de !ciences Po (%he 7RICs 2gainst the Dest6M CERI !%R2%EGG P2PER!, Nr 00 W @ors !<rie, No3embre )*00, htt"J--###,sciences"o,fr-ceri-sites-sciences"o,fr,ceri-files-n00Q00)*00,"df1--@24 7ra=ilJ the 7RIC! as an identit& su""ort %his brings us to 7ra=il, #hich is unBuestionabl& one of the central 7RIC! actors, 9nder the leadershi" of 4ula and his Minister of Foreign 2ffairs Celso 2morim, 7ra=il "la&ed a significant role in the emergence of the 7RIC!, 2s mentioned earlier, it #as a dri3ing force in forming the Cancun front, More recentl&, #ith %ur5e&, it #as central to a "olitical maneu3er to counter the 2mericans #ith regard to Iran b& attem"ting to negotiate a trilateral agreement #ith %eheran on nuclear #aste re"rocessing, 7ra=il sees the 7RIC! as an intermediar& "olitical circle in bet#een the Dest W and "articularl& the 9nited !tates, #ith #hich it enFo&s close relations W and 4atin 2merica, #hich forms its natural economic and "olitical s"here of influence , %he com"lementarit& of 7rasilias obFecti3es is e/"ressed in the fact that 4ula both centrall& integrated 7ra=il into the 7RIC! and cruciall& contributed to the creation of 9N2!9R,

Bra6il DA Democracy Impact

Bra6ils regional po#er is .ey to 'emocratic promotion;sol"es !etter t an t e *( (t&en.el/ 14 - 72 from the 9ni3ersidad de :alencia in !"ain, a Master in Public Polic& from @ar3ard8s Kenned& !chool of Go3ernment, #here he #as a McClo& !cholar, and a PhC in "olitical science from the 9ni3ersit& of Cuisburg-Essen in German& , assistant "rofessor of international relations at the Gethlio :argas Foundation (FG:1 in !po Paulo, #here he coordinates the !po Paulo branch of the !chool of @istor& and !ocial !cience (CPC>C1 and the e/ecuti3e "rogram in international relations (>li3er, %hird Dorld guarterl&, :ol, E., No, ), )*0E, "" EE?WEII, LRising Po#ers and the Future of Cemocrac& PromotionJ the case of 7ra=il and India,M htt"J--d/,doi,org-0*,0*X*-*0.E+I?(,)*0E,((I(X?1--@24 Destern democratic go3ernments and organisations s"end billions of dollars e3er& &ear on democrac&-related "roFects, turning them into the dominant actors in the Teld of democrac& "romotion, Get a notable shift of "o#er is ta5ing "lace to#ards countries that are more hesitant #hen it comes to
s&stematic democrac& "romotion, @a3e 7ra=il and India "romoted democrac& in the "ast6 @o# do anal&sts and "olic& ma5ers in emerging democraciesHusing 7ra=il and India as an e/am"le in this anal&sisHthin5 about democrac& "romotion6 @o# can #e characterise their arguments in relation to the critiBues cited abo3e6 7ra=il and democrac& "romotion 7ra=il accounts for o3er half

is relati3el& more "o#erful in its region than China, India and German& are in their res"ecti3e neighbourhoods, .+ Get, des"ite this
of !outh 2mericas #ealth, "o"ulation, territor& and militar& budget, #hich suggests that it dominant "osition, it shied a#a& from inter3ening in its neighbours internal affairs before the 0??*s, %he "reser3ation of national so3ereignt& and non-inter3ention ha3e al#a&s been and remain 5e& "illars of 7ra=ils foreign "olic&, so an& attem"t to "romote or defend self-determination and human rights abroadHa commitment enshrined in 7ra=ils 0?X? constitutionHstands in conVict #ith the "rinci"le of non-inter3ention, %he tension arising from these t#o o""osing 3isionsHres"ecting so3ereignt& and ado"ting a more asserti3e "ro-democrac& stance, "articularl& in the regionHis one of the im"ortant dilemmas in 7ra=ilian foreign "olic& of the "ast t#o decades, In fact, "articularl& during the 0??*s, 7ra=il abstained se3eral times from "romoting or defending democrac&, In 0??*, under President Fernando Collor de Mello (0??*W?)1 and largel& because of economic interests, 7ra=il bloc5ed calls for a militar& inter3ention in !uriname after a militar& cou" there, 2 &ear later it o""osed militar& inter3ention to reinstall President 2ristide in @aiti, In 0??) it remained silent o3er a "olitical crisis in Ecuador, In 0??.H#hen a member of the 9N !ecurit& CouncilHit abstained from !ecurit& Council Resolution ?.*, #hich authorised the use of force in @aiti #ith the goal of reinstating President 2ristide, #ho had been remo3ed from "o#er in 0??0 through a cou",I* @o#e3er, contrar& to #hat is often belie3ed, 7ra=il has

defended democrac& abroad in man& more instances, and o3er the "ast t#o decades its 3ie#s on inter3ention ha3e become decidedl& more Ve/ible,I0 E3en under indirectl&elected President 'os< !arne& (0?XIW
X?1, the Trst "resident after democratisation, 7ra=il su""orted the inclusion of a reference to democrac& in a ne# "reamble to the >rgani=ation of 2merican !tates (>2!1 Charter,I) 9nder President Fernando @enriBue Cardoso (0??IW)**)1, 7ra=il

inter3ened in neighbouring Paragua& in 0??+ to a3oid a militar& cou" thereH#or5ingthrough Mercosur

and the >2! to obtain higher le3erage, and ultimatel& con3incing General 4ino >3iedo not to stage a cou" dm<tat against then President 'uan Carlos Dasmos&,IE %he 7ra=ilian "resident again "la&ed an im"ortant mediating role during "olitical crises in Paragua& in 0??? and )***,I. Dhen then Peru3ian President FuFimori falsiTed the election results in )***, 7ra=ils President Cardoso refused to criticise him and 7ra=il #as the maFor obstacle to 9! and Canadian efforts to condemn Peru at the >2! General 2ssembl&,II Get, in an im"ortant gesture, President Cardoso sta&ed a#a& from President FuFimoris inaugural ceremon&, and a &ear later 7ra=il su""orted the Inter-2merican Cemocratic Charter, largel& aimed at FuFimori, #hich includes the norm of democratic solidarit&,I+ Follo#ing the cou" in :ene=uela 7ra=il has assumed a more asserti3e "rodemocrac&

stance in the region, In )**) it acti3el& engaged in :ene=uela #hen a grou" sought to illegall& oust @ugo Cha3e=, #ho #as reinstated .X hours later,I( 4oo5ing bac5 o3er the "ast decade, !antosi argues that 7ra=il has "la&ed an e/em"lar& and fundamental role in strengthening democratic norms and clauses across the region, IX In his
memoirs Cardoso reVected on the issue b& sa&ing that ^7ra=il al#a&s defends democratic order, I? 7urges and Caudelin argue that ^one can sa& that 7ra=il has been Buite su""orti3e of efforts to "rotect democrac& in the

2mericas since 0??*, +* %his tendenc& has been further strengthened in the )0st centur&, In )**E
President 4ula ()**EW )*0*1 s#iftl& engaged to resol3e a constitutional crisis in 7oli3ia and, in )**I, he sent his foreign minister to guito to deal #ith a crisis in Ecuador, In the same &ear 7ra=il su""orted the >2! in assuming a mediating role during a "olitical crisis in Nicaragua, including Tnancial su""ort for the electoral monitoring of a munici"al election there, In )**? the

international debate about ho# to deal #ith the cou" in @onduras #as 3er& much a result of 7ra=il and the 9!2 clashing o3er the terms of ho# best to defend democrac&, rather than #hether to defend it,+0 >3er the "ast t#o decades 7ra=il has s&stematicall& built democratic references and clauses into the charters, "rotocols and declarations of the subregional institutions of #hich it is a member, %he im"ortance of democrac&

in the constitution and acti3ities of the Rio Grou", Mercosur and the more recent !outh 2merican Communit& of Nations (9nasul1 can to a large e/tent be traced bac5 to 7ra=ils acti3ism ,+) 2t the same time 7ra=il has sought to ensure that the "rotection of democratic rule be calibrated #ith inter3entionism, combining the "rinci"le of non-inter3ention #ith that of ^non-indifference, +E %his terms "olic&
rele3ance remains contested, &et it s&mbolises ho# much 7ra=ils thin5ing about so3ereignt& has e3ol3ed, For e/am"le, #hen e/"laining #h& 7ra=il o""osed a 9! "ro"osal to craft a mechanism #ithin the >2!! Cemocratic Charter, #hich "ermits the grou" to inter3ene in nations to foster or strengthen democrac&, Celso 2morim argued that ^there needs to be a dialogue rather than an inter3ention, adding that ^democrac& cannot be im"osed, It is born from dialogue, +. It thus "ositions itself as an alternati3e and more moderate democrac& defender in the hemis"here than the 9!2, and one that continuousl& calibrates its interest in defending democrac& #ith its tradition of non-inter3ention, 7ra=ils decision to lead the 9N "eace5ee"ing mission, Minustah, in @aiti, starting in )**., cannot be categorised as democrac& "romotion "er se, &et the missions larger goal did consist in bringing both economic and "olitical stabilit& to the Caribbean Island, #hich has been the target of 9! 2merican democrac& "romotion for &ears,+I In the same #a& 7ra=ils ongoing in3ol3ement in Guinea 7issau, a member of the Communit& of Portuguese 4anguage Countries (CP4P1 "ro3ed to be a &et another im"ortant moment for 7ra=ils role as a "romoter of "eace and democrac&,++ 7ra=il had "ro3ided some electoral assistance to Guinea-7issau from )**. to )**I and it continued to su""ort efforts to stabilise the countr& b& o"erating through the 9N "eace5ee"ing mission there,+( Curing a CP4P meeting in )*00 7ra=il signed a memorandum of understanding to im"lement a ProFect in !u""ort of the Electoral C&cles of the Portuguese-s"ea5ing 2frican Countries and %imor-4este,+X In addition, in the lead-u" to the antici"ated elections in 2"ril )*0), 7ra=il made further Tnancial contributions to the 9nited Nations Ce3elo"ment Programme (9NCP1 bas5et fund in su""ort of the National Electoral Commission for assistance in the e/ecution of the election,+? 7ra=ils "ro-democrac& stance became most ob3ious in )*0), #hen President Cilma

RousseffHtogether #ith the leaders of 9rugua& and 2rgentinaHsus"ended Paragua& from Mercosur after the im"eachment of Paragua&s President Fernando 4ugo, #hich most go3ernments in the region regarded as the eBui3alent of a cou" d<tat or a ^"arliamentar& cou", (* %he 7ra=ilian go3ernment thus set a clear "recedent that anti-democratic tendencies in the region #ould cause a ra"id and clear reaction from leaders in 7ras lia , President Rousseffs decision to #or5 through MercosurHrather than the >2!H is consistent #ith a gro#ing "reference to use local regional bodies, "ossibl& in an effort to strengthen "roFection as a regional leader , Get there are also
critical 3oices, !ummarising 7ra=ilian foreign "olic& o3er the "ast t#o decades, !ean 7urges argues that ^7ra=il has not beha3ed consistentl& in su""ort of democratic norm enforcement, (0 and that decisi3e action to "reser3e democrac& has been ^te"id, () %ed Piccone reasons that ^#hen it comes to #ieldingcinVuence in su""ort of democrac& in other countriesc7ra=il has been ambi3alent and often un"redictable, (E 7oth these e3aluations #ere made before 7ra=ils asserti3e stance in Paragua& in )*0), Ne3ertheless, des"ite this strateg&, the term ^democrac& "romotion is not used either b& 7ra=ilian "olic& ma5ers or b& academics #hen referring to 7ra=ils Paragua& "olic&, In the same #a& 7ra=il does not "romote an& acti3ities com"arable to those of large 9! or Euro"ean nongo3ernmental organisations, #hose acti3ities range from "olitical "art& de3elo"ment, electoral monitoring, su""orting inde"endent media and Fournalists, ca"acit& building for state institutions, and training for Fudges, ci3ic grou" leaders and legislators, %his brief anal&sis sho#s that 7ra=il is increasingl& asserti3e in its region, and #illing to

inter3ene if "olitical crises threaten democrac& , 7ra=il is most li5el& to inter3ene during constitutional crises and "olitical ru"tures, and less so #hen "rocedural issues during elections ma& affect the
outcomeHas #as the case during @ugo Cha3e= re-election in )*0), #hen se3eral commentators criticised 7ra=ils decision not to "ressure the :ene=uelan go3ernment to ensure fairelections,(. Get, des"ite this distinction, it seems clear that the consolidation of democrac& in the region has turned into one of 7ra=ils fundamental foreign "olic& goals, %his de3elo"ment must be seen

in the conte/t of 7ra=ils attem"t to consolidate its regional leadershi" , In the 0?X*s 7ra=ilian foreign
"olic& ma5ers "ercei3ed the need to engage #ith the countr&s neighbours, "rinci"all& its ri3al 2rgentina, a trend that continued and strengthened throughout the 0??*s, 2t the beginning of Cardosos Trst term, the "resident began to articulate a 3ision that fundamentall& di3erged from 7ra=ils traditional "ers"ecti3eHa 3ision that identiTed ^!outh 2merica as a to" "riorit&,(I %his trend has continued e3er since, and #as intensiTed under Cardosos successor, 4ui= InAcio 4ula da !il3a, >3er the "ast fe# &ears, as 7ra=ils economic rise has caught the #orlds attention, the region has Trml& stood at the centre of 7ra=ils foreign "olic& strateg&,(+ %his trend continues under 7ra=ils current administration, #ith a focus on reducing a gro#ing fear in the region that 7ra=il could turn into a regional bull&N o3er the "ast fe# &ears anti-7ra=ilian sentiment has been on the rise in !outh 2merica,(( Get, #hile

7ra=il ma& de facto defend democrac& #ith freBuenc& in the region, it rarel& engages in the liberal rhetoric so common in Euro"e and the 9!2, It ma& be "recisel& because of 7ra=ils traditional mistrust of the 9!2s attem"ts to "romote freedom that 7ra=ilian "olic& ma5ers refrain from using similar arguments, Rather, 7ra=il can be said to be defending and "romoting "olitical stabilit& abo3e all else, a 5e& ingredient of 7ra=ils interest in e/"anding its economic inVuence on the continent, Democracy is .ey to sol"e for e@tinction %&ra"c i. 1 W Resident !cholar at 2merican Enter"rise Institute 'oshua, LCemocrac& and nuclear "eace,M 'ul 00, htt"J--###,n"ec-#eb,org-s&llabi-mura3chi5,htm

%he greatest im"etus for #orld "eace -- and "erforce of nuclear "eace -- is the s"read of democrac&, In a famous article, and subseBuent boo5, Francis Fu5u&ama argued that democrac&8s e/tension #as leading to $the
end of histor&,$ 7& this he meant the conclusion of man8s Buest for the right social order, but he also meant the $diminution of the li5elihood of large-scale conflict bet#een states,$ (01 Fu5u&ama8s "hrase #as intentionall& "ro3ocati3e, e3en tongue-in-chee5, but he #as "ointing to t#o do#n-to-earth historical obser3ationsJ that democracies are more "eaceful than other 5inds of go3ernment and that the #orld is gro#ing more democratic, Neither "oint has gone unchallenged, >nl& a fe# decades ago, as distinguished an obser3er of international relations as George Kennan made a claim Buite contrar& to the first of these assertions, Cemocracies,

he said, #ere slo# to anger, but once aroused $a democrac& , , , , fights in anger , , , , to the bitter end,$ ()1 Kennan8s 3ie# #as strongl& influenced b& the "olic& of $unconditional surrender$ "ursued in Dorld Dar II, 7ut subseBuent e/"erience, such as the negotiated settlements 2merica sought in Korea and :ietnam "ro3ed him #rong, Cemocracies are not onl& slo# to anger but also Buic5 to com"romise, 2nd to forgi3e, Not#ithstanding the insistence on unconditional surrender,
2merica treated 'a"an and that "art of German& that it occu"ied #ith e/traordinar& generosit&, In recent &ears a burgeoning literature has discussed the "eacefulness of democracies, Indeed the "ro"osition that democracies do not go to

#ar #ith one another has been described b& one "olitical scientist as being $as close as an&thing #e ha3e to an em"irical la# in international relations,$ (E1 !ome of those #ho find enthusiasm for democrac&
off-"utting ha3e challenged this "ro"osition, but their challenges ha3e onl& ser3ed as em"irical tests that ha3e confirmed its robustness, For e/am"le, the academic Paul Gottfried and the columnist-turned-"olitician Patric5 ', 7uchanan ha3e both instanced democratic England8s declaration of #ar against democratic Finland during Dorld Dar II, (.1 In fact, after much "rocrastination, England did accede to the "ressure of its !o3iet all& to declare #ar against Finland #hich #as allied #ith German&, 7ut the declaration #as "urel& formalJ no fighting ensued bet#een England and Finland, !urel& this is an e/ce"tion that "ro3es the rule, %he strongest e/ce"tion I can thin5 of is the #ar bet#een the nascent state of Israel and the 2rabs in 0?.X, Israel #as an embr&onic democrac& and 4ebanon, one of the 2rab belligerents, #as also democratic #ithin the confines of its "eculiar confessional di3ision of "o#er, 4ebanon, ho#e3er, #as a reluctant "art& to the fight, Dithin the councils of the 2rab 4eague, it o""osed the #ar but #ent along #ith its larger confreres #hen the& o"ted to attac5, E3en so, 4ebanon did little fighting and soon sued for "eace, %hus, in the case of 4ebanon against Israel, as in the case of England against Finland, democracies nominall& #ent to #ar against democracies #hen the& #ere dragged into conflicts b& authoritarian allies, %he "olitical scientist 7ruce Russett offers a different challenge to the notion that democracies are more "eaceful, $%hat democracies are in general, in dealing #ith all 5inds of

states, more "eaceful than are authoritarian or other nondemocraticall& constituted states , , , ,is a
much more contro3ersial "ro"osition than 8merel&8 that democracies are "eaceful in their dealings #ith each other, and one for #hich there is little s&stematic e3idence,$ he sa&s, (I1 Russett cites his o#n and other statistical e/"lorations #hich sho# that #hile democracies rarel& fight one another the& often fight against others, %he trouble #ith such studies, ho#e3er, is that the& rarel& e/amine the Buestion of #ho started or caused a #ar, %o reduce the data to a form that is Buantitati3el& measurable, it is easier to determine #hether a conflict has occurred bet#een t#o states than #hose fault it #as, 7ut the latter Buestion is all im"ortant,

Cemocracies ma& often go to #ar against dictatorshi"s because the dictators see them as "re& or underestimate their resol3e, Indeed, such e/am"les abound, German& might ha3e beha3ed more cautiousl& in the
summer of 0?0. had it reali=ed that England #ould fight to 3indicate 7elgian neutralit& and to su""ort France, 4ater, @itler #as emboldened b& his notorious contem"t for the flabbiness of the democracies, North Korea almost surel& discounted the li5elihood of an 2merican militar& res"onse to its in3asion of the !outh after !ecretar& of !tate Cean 2cheson "ublicl& defined 2merica8s defense "erimeter to e/clude the Korean "eninsula (a declaration #hich merel& confirmed e/isting 9,!, "olic&1, In 0??*, !addam @ussein8s decision to s#allo# Ku#ait #as "robabl& encouraged b& the inference he must ha3e ta5en from the statements and actions of 2merican officials that Dashington #ould offer no forceful resistance, Russett sa&s that those #ho claim democracies are in general more "eaceful $#ould ha3e us belie3e that the 9nited !tates #as regularl& on the defensi3e, rarel& on the offensi3e, during the Cold Dar,$ 7ut that is not Buite rightJ the #ord $regularl&$ distorts the issue, 2 3ictim can sometimes turn the tables on an aggressor, but that does not ma5e the 3ictim eBuall& bellicose, None #ould dis"ute that Na"oleon #as res"onsible for the Na"oleonic #ars or @itler for Dorld Dar II in Euro"e, but after a time their 3ictims sei=ed the offensi3e, !o in the Cold Dar, the 9nited !tates ma& ha3e initiated some s5irmishes (although in fact it rarel& did1, but the struggle as a #hole #as dri3en one-sidedl&, %he !o3iet "olic& #as $class #arfare$N the 2merican "olic& #as $containment,$ %he so-called re3isionist historians argued that 2merica bore an eBual or larger share of res"onsibilit& for the conflict, 7ut Mi5hail Gorbache3 made nonsense of their theories #hen, in the name of glasnost and "erestroi5a, he turned the !o3iet 9nion a#a& from its historic course, %he Cold Dar ended almost instantl&--as he no doubt 5ne# it #ould, $De #ould ha3e been able to a3oid man& , , , difficulties if the democratic "rocess had de3elo"ed normall& in our countr&,$ he #rote, ((1 %o render Fudgment about the relati3e "eacefulness of states or s&stems, #e must as5 not onl& #ho started a #ar but #h&, In "articular #e should consider #hat in Catholic 'ust Dar doctrine is called $right intention,$ #hich means roughl&J #hat did the& ho"e to get out of it6 In the fe# cases in recent times in #hich #ars #ere initiated b& democracies, there #ere often moti3es other than aggrandi=ement, for e/am"le, #hen 2merica in3aded Grenada, %o be sure, Dashington #as im"elled b& selfinterest more than altruism, "rimaril& its concern for the #ell-being of 2merican nationals and its desire to remo3e a chi", ho#e3er tin&, from the !o3iet game board, 7ut 2merica had no designs u"on Grenada, and the in3aders #ere greeted #ith Fo& b& the Grenadan citi=enr&, 2fter organi=ing an election, 2merica "ulled out, In other cases, democracies ha3e turned to

#ar in the face of "ro3ocation, such as Israel8s in3asion of 4ebanon in 0?X) to root out an enem& s#orn to its destruction
or %ur5e&8s in3asion of C&"rus to rebuff a "o#er-grab b& Gree5 nationalists, In contrast, the #ars launched b& dictators, such as IraB8s in3asion of Ku#ait, North Korea8s of !outh Korea, the !o3iet 9nion8s of @ungar& and 2fghanistan, often ha3e aimed at conBuest or subFugation, %he big e/ce"tion to this rule is colonialism, %he Euro"ean "o#ers conBuered most of 2frica and 2sia, and continued to hold their "ri=es as Euro"e democrati=ed, No doubt man& of the instances of democracies at #ar that enter into the statistical calculations of researchers li5e Russett stem from the colonial era, 7ut colonialism #as a legac& of Euro"e8s "re-

democratic times, and it #as abandoned after Dorld Dar II, !ince then, I 5no# of no case #here a democrac& has initiated #arfare #ithout significant "ro3ocation or for reasons of sheer aggrandi=ement, but there are se3eral cases #here dictators ha3e done so, >ne interesting "iece of Russett8s research should hel" to "oint him a#a& from his doubts that democracies are more "eaceful in general, @e aimed to e/"lain #h& democracies are more "eaceful to#ard each other, Immanuel Kant #as the first to obser3e, or rather to forecast, the "acific inclination of democracies, @e reasoned that $citi=ens , , , #ill ha3e a great hesitation in , , , , calling do#n on themsel3es all the miseries of #ar,$ (X1 7ut this 3alid insight is incom"lete, %here is a dee"er e/"lanation, Cemocrac&

is not Fust a mechanismN it entails a s"irit of com"romise and self-restraint, 2t bottom, democrac& is the #illingness to resol3e ci3il dis"utes #ithout recourse to 3iolence, Nations that embrace this ethos in the conduct of their domestic affairs are naturall& more "redis"osed to embrace it in their dealings #ith other nations, Russett aimed to e/"lain #h& democracies are more "eaceful
to#ard one another, %o do this, he constructed t#o models, >ne h&"othesi=ed that the cause la& in the mechanics of democratic decision-ma5ing (the $structural-institutional model$1, the other that it la& in the democratic ethos (the $cultural-normati3e model$1, @is statistical assessments led him to conclude thatJ $almost al#a&s the cultural-normati3e

model sho#s a consistent effect on conflict occurrence and #ar, %he structural-institutional model sometimes "ro3ides a significant relationshi" but often does not, $ (?1 If it is the ethos that ma5es
democratic states more "eaceful to#ard each other, #ould not that ethos also ma5e them more "eaceful in general6 Russett im"lies that the ans#er is no, because to his mind a critical element in the "eaceful beha3ior of democracies to#ard other democracies is their antici"ation of a conciliator& attitude b& their counter"art, 7ut this is too "at, %he attitude of li3e-and-let-li3e cannot be turned on and off li5e a s"igot, %he citi=ens and officials of democracies recogni=e that other states, ho#e3er go3erned, ha3e legitimate interests, and the& are dis"osed to tr& to accommodate those interests e/ce"t #hen the other "art&8s beha3ior seems threatening or outrageous, 2 different 5ind of challenge to the thesis that democracies are more "eaceful has been "osed b& the "olitical scientists Ed#ard G, Mansfield and 'ac5 !n&der, %he& claim statistical su""ort for the "ro"osition that #hile full& fledged democracies ma& be "acific, 2in thZeR transitional "hase of democrati=ation, countries become more aggressi3e and #ar-"rone, not less,$ (0*1 @o#e3er, li5e others, the& measure a state8s li5elihood of becoming in3ol3ed in a #ar but do not re"ort attem"ting to determine the cause or fault, Moreo3er, the& ac5no#ledge that their research re3ealed not onl& an increased li5elihood for a state to become in3ol3ed in a #ar #hen it #as gro#ing more democratic, but an almost eBual increase for states gro#ing less democratic, %his raises the "ossibilit& that the effects the& #ere obser3ing #ere caused sim"l& b& "olitical change "er se, rather than b& democrati=ation, Finall&, the& im"licitl& ac5no#ledge that the relationshi" of democrati=ation and "eacefulness ma& change o3er historical "eriods, %here is no reason to su""ose that an& such relationshi" is go3erned b& an immutable la#, !ince their em"irical base reaches bac5 to 0X00, an& effect the& re"ort, e3en if accuratel& inter"reted, ma& not hold in the contem"orar& #orld, %he& note that $in ZsomeR recent cases, in contrast to some of our historical results, the rule seems to beJ go full& democratic, or don8t go at all,$ 7ut according to Freedom @ouse, some +),I "ercent of e/tant go3ernments #ere chosen in legitimate elections, (0)1 (%his is a much larger "ro"ortion than are adFudged b& Freedom @ouse to be $free states,$ a more demanding criterion, and it includes man& #ea5l& democratic states,1 >f the remaining E(,I "ercent, a large number are e/"eriencing some degree of democrati=ation or hea3& "ressure in that direction, !o the choice $don8t go at all$ (001 is rarel& realistic in the contem"orar& #orld, %hese statistics also contain the ans#er to those #ho doubt the second "ro"osition behind Fu5u&ama8s forecast, namel&, that the #orld is gro#ing more democratic, !5e"tics ha3e dra#n u"on !amuel @untington8s fine boo5, %he %hird Da3eJ Cemocrati=ation in the 4ate %#entieth Centur&, @untington sa&s that the democrati=ation trend that began in the mid-0?(*s in Portugal, Greece and !"ain is the third such e"isode, %he first $#a3e$ of democrati=ation began #ith the 2merican re3olution and lasted through the aftermath of Dorld Dar I, coming to an end in the inter#ar &ears #hen much of Euro"e regressed bac5 to fascist or militar& dictatorshi", %he second #a3e, in this telling, follo#ed Dorld Dar II #hen #holesale decoloni=ation ga3e rise to a raft of ne# democracies, Most of these, notabl& in 2frica, colla"sed into dictatorshi" b& the 0?+*s, bringing the second #a3e to its end, %hose #ho follo# @untington8s argument ma& ta5e the failure of democrac& in se3eral of the former !o3iet re"ublics and some other instances of bac5sliding since 0?X? to signal the end of the third #a3e, !uch an im"ression, ho#e3er, #ould be misleading, >ne unsatisf&ing thing about @untington8s $#a3es$ is their une3enness, %he first lasted about 0I* &ears, the second about )*, @o# long should #e e/"ect the third to endure6 If it is li5e the second, it #ill ebb an& da& no#, but if it is li5e the first, it #ill run until the around the &ear )0)I, 2nd b& then--#ho 5no#s6-"erha"s man5ind #ill ha3e incinerated itself, mo3ed to another "lanet, or e3en de3ised a better "olitical s&stem, Further, @untington8s meta"hor im"lies a lac5 of o3erall "rogress or direction, Da3es rise and fall, 7ut each of the re3erses that follo#ed @untington8s t#o #a3es #as brief, and each ne# #a3e raised the number of democracies higher than before, @untington does, ho#e3er, "resent a statistic that seems to #eigh hea3il& against an& unidirectional inter"retation of democratic "rogress, %he "ro"ortion of states that #ere democratic in 0??* (.I_1, he sa&s, #as identical to the "ro"ortion in 0?)), (0E1 7ut there are t#o ans#ers to this, In 0?)) there #ere onl& +. statesN in 0??* there #ere 0+I, 7ut the number of "eo"les had not gro#n a""reciabl&, %he difference #as that in 0?)) most "eo"les li3ed in colonies, and the& #ere not counted as states, %he +. states of that time #ere mostl& the ad3anced countries, >f those, t#o thirds had become democratic b& 0??*, #hich #as a significant gain, %he additional 0*0 states counted in 0??* #ere mostl& former colonies, >nl& a minorit&, albeit a substantial one, #ere democratic in 0??*, but since 3irtuall& none of those #ere democratic in 0?)), that #as also a significant gain, In short, there #as "rogress all around, but this #as obscured b& as5ing #hat "ercentage of states #ere democratic, 2s5ing the Buestion this #a& means that a "eo"le #ho #ere subFected to a domestic dictator counted as a non-democrac&, but a "eo"le #ho #ere subFected to a foreign dictator did not count at all, Moreo3er, #hile the criteria for Fudging a state democratic 3ar&, the statistic that .I "ercent of states #ere democratic in 0??* corres"onds #ith Freedom @ouse8s count of $democratic$ "olities (as o""osed to its smaller count of $free$ countries, a more demanding criterion1, 7ut b& this same count, Freedom @ouse no# sa&s that the "ro"ortion of democracies has gro#n to +),I "ercent, In other #ords, the $third #a3e$ has not abated, %hat Freedom @ouse could count 0)* freel& elected go3ernments b& earl& )**0 (out of a total of 0?) inde"endent states1 bes"ea5s a 3ast transformation in human go3ernance #ithin the s"an of ))I &ears, In 0((I, the number of democracies #as =ero, In 0((+, the birth of the 9nited !tates of 2merica brought the total u" to one, !ince then, democrac& has s"read at an accelerating "ace, most of the gro#th ha3ing occurred #ithin the t#entieth centur&, #ith greatest momentum since 0?(., %hat this momentum has slac5ened some#hat since its "innacle in 0?X?, destined to be remembered as one of the most re3olutionar& &ears in all histor&, #as ine3itable, !o man& "eo"les #ere s#e"t u" in the democratic tide that there #as certain to be some bac5sliding, Most countries8 democratic e3olution has included some fits and starts rather than a smooth

"rogression, !o it must be for the #orld as a #hole, Nonetheless, the o3erall trend remains "o#erful and clear, Ces"ite the bac5sliding, the number and "ro"ortion of democracies stands higher toda& than e3er before, %his "rogress offers a source of ho"e for enduring nuclear "eace, %he danger of nuclear #ar #as radicall& reduced almost o3ernight #hen Russia abandoned Communism and turned to democrac&, For other ominous corners of the #orld, #e ma& be in a 5ind of race bet#een the emergence or gro#th of nuclear arsenals and the ad3ent of democrati=ation, If this is so, the greatest cause for #orr& ma& rest #ith the Moslem Middle East #here nuclear arsenals do not &et e/ist but #here the "ros"ects for democrac& ma& be still more remote,

Bra6il DA Israeli Conflict Impact

Bra6ilian po#er .ey to sol"e t e Israel-)alestinian conflict Giselle Dat6 an' 'oel )eters/ 14 W Giselle Cat= is an 2ssistant Professor of Go3ernment and International 2ffairs at the !chool of Public and International 2ffairs, 'oel Peters is Professor of Go3ernment and International 2ffairs at the !chool of Public and International 2ffairs, :irginia %ech (L7ra=il and the IsraeliWPalestinian Conflict in the Ne# Centur&J 7et#een 2mbition, Idealism, and Pragmatism,M Israel 'ournal of foreign 2ffairs :II J ) ()*0E1 htt"J--israelcfr,com-documents-(-)-(-)-I-GiselleCat=-and-'oelPeters,"df1--@24 7ra=ils a""roach to the IsraeliWPalestinian conflict has remained true to the course set b& President 4ula, 7ra=il under Cilma Rousseff has continued to be a strong and 3ocal ad3ocate of Palestinian statehood, !hortl& before the No3ember )?, )*0) 3ote on Palestinian membershi" in the 9nited Nations,
7ra=ilian Foreign Minister 2ntonio Patriota 3isited Israel and the Palestinian territories, #here he reaffirmed 7ra=ils #illingness to hel" mediate a resolution to the conflict, 2t home, in Cecember )*0), 7ra=il hosted the Forum !ocial Palestina 4i3re ZDorld !ocial Forum for a Free PalestineR, a gathering of "olitical acti3ists, ci3il societ& grou"s, and transnational net#or5s organi=ed b& su""orters of the ruling Dor5ers Part&, 7ra=ils "romotion of the Palestinian cause ser3es its interests at

o3erseas, Comesticall&, it s"ea5s to the idealism and "rinci"les of the Dor5ers Part&, #hich has held "o#er since offers 7ra=il greater 3isibilit&, not onl& reflecting its ambitions of becoming a global "la&er, but also forming a central element in 7ra=ils efforts in challenging 2merican dominance, and in "romoting multilateralism to address and resol3e global issues, thereb& increasing the rele3ance of ne# emergent "o#ers, 7ut if #e are #itnessing the emergence of a L"ost-2mericanM global order, then 7ra=ils engagement #ith the IsraeliWPalestinian conflict also re3eals that "ragmatism and self-interest #ill feature "rominentl& in the a""roach of Lne#M "o#ers to the resolution of global conflicts, 7ra=il has sought to strengthen its relations #ith Israel, For all its su""ort of the Palestinian cause, 7ra=il sees Israeli in3estment , its high-tech sector, and the "rocurement of Israeli technolog& and ad3anced #ea"ons as critical in the continued moderni=ation of its econom& and the de3elo"ment of its militar& e/"orts, %his sense of "ragmatism and real"oliti5 has also guided
home and )**E, 2broad, it Israels a""roach to 7ra=il, Recogni=ing 7ra=ils im"ortance as an economic actor and emerging global "o#er, and its "otential as a mar5et for its militar& e/"orts, and a#are that it has little chance of affecting 7ra=ils "osition, Israel has chosen to

o3erloo5 its rhetoric on the conflict and #or5 #ith 7ra=il , not against it, Indeed, 7ra=ilianWIsraeli relations ha3e ne3er been stronger, !ince Rousseff came to "o#er t#o &ears ago, fi3e Israeli ministers ha3e 3isited
7ra=il, %rade bet#een the t#o countries has continued to flourish and Israeli militar& and securit& com"anies ha3e dee"ened their "resence in the gro#ing 7ra=ilian homeland securit& and defense mar5ets, In 2"ril )*0), Rafael 2d3anced Cefense !&stems, one of Israels leading defense contractors, acBuired a .*-"ercent sta5e in the 7ra=ilian aeros"ace com"an& GE!PI 2eronautics, and that summer the commander of the 7ra=ilian air force "aid a 3isit to Israel to discuss areas of future coo"eration, 2t least until the end of Rousseffs term in office ()*0I1, #e are li5el& to see the "attern of 7ra=ils engagement #ith Israel and

the Palestinians remain one that meshes ambition, idealism, and "ragmatism in a more asserti3e foreign "olic& agenda that, for all its normati3e fla3or, is ultimatel& grounded in material self interest, In that res"ect, it is a "attern of foreign "olic& beha3ior that is not too dissimilar to that of other emerging "o#ers, E"en #it o&t escalation/ %i''le East n&clear #ar g&arantees e@tinction Hoffman/ $ (Ian Hoffman, !taff Driter, Cecember 0), ,??$, LNuclear Dinter 4ooms, e/"erts sa&M, MediaNe#s Grou", Inc, and 2NG Ne#s"a"ers1
7ut the&

!2N FR2NCI!C> -- Dith su"er"o#er nuclear arsenals "lummeting to a third of 0?X*s le3els and slated to dro" b& another third, the nig tmaris "isions of n&clear #inter offered b& scientists during the Cold Dar ha3e receded,

a"en7t gone a#ay, Researchers at the 2merican Geo"h&sical 9nion8s annual meeting #arned Monda& that e"en a small regional n&clear #ar co&l' !&rn eno&g cities to shroud the globe in !lac. smo.y s a'o# an' &s er in t e manmade eBui3alent of the 4ittle Ice Age, $N&clear #eapons represent t e greatest single &man threat to the planet/ m&c more so t an glo!al #arming,$ said Rutgers 9ni3ersit& atmos"heric scientist 2lan Roboc5, 7& dro""ing imaginar& Hiros ima-si6e' !om!s into some of the #orld8s biggest cities, no# s#elled to tens of millions in "o"ulation,

9ni3ersit& of Colorado researcher >, 7rian %oon and colleagues found the& co&l'

generate 100 times t e fatalities an' 0** times the climate-c illing smo.e "er 5iloton of e/"losi3e "o#er as all-out n&clear #ar !et#een t e *nited (tates an' former (o"iet *nion, For most mo'ern n&clear-#ar scenarios/ t e glo!al impact isn7t n&clear #inter , the notion of smo5e from incinerated cities blotting out the sun for &ears and star3ing most of the Earth8s "eo"le, It8s not e3en nuclear autumn, !&t rat er an instant nuclear chill o"er most of t e planet/ accompanie' !y massi"e o6one loss an' #arming at t e poles2 + at7s # at scientists8 com"uter sim&lations s&ggest #o&l' appen if n&clear #ar !ro.e o&t in a hot s"ot such as t e %i''le East, the North
fe#er #ea"ons and mig

Korean "eninsula or, the most modeled case, in !outheast 2sia, 9nli5e in the Cold Dar, #hen the 9nited !tates and Russia mostl& targeted each other8s nuclear, militar& and strategic industrial sites, yo&ng n&clear-arme' nations ha3e

t go for ma@im&m effect !y &sing t em on cities , as the 9nited !tates did e sprea' of n&clear #eapons #orld#ide com!ine' #it glo!al migration into 'ense megacities form #hat he called $"erha"s t e greatest 'anger to the stabilit& of societ& since t e 'a#n of &manity2H More than )* &ears ago,
in 0?.I, $De8re at a "erilous crossroads,$ %oon said, + researchers imagined a 9,!,-!o3iet nuclear holocaust #ould #rea5 ha3oc on the "lanet8s climate, %he& sho#ed the "roblem #as "otentiall& #orse than fearedJ Massi3e urban fires #ould flush hundreds of millions of tons of blac5 soot s5&#ard, #here -heated b& sunlight -- it #ould soar higher into the stratos"here and begin coo5ing off the "rotecti3e o=one la&er around the Earth, @uge losses of o=one #ould o"en the "lanet and its inhabitants to damaging radiation, #hile the #arm soot #ould s"read a "all sufficient to "lunge the Earth into free=ing &ear-round, %he hundreds of millions #ho #ould star3e e/ceeded those #ho #ould die in the initial blasts and radiation, Po"ulari=ed b& astronomer Carl !agan and Nobel "ri=e #inners, the idea of nuclear #inter ca"tured the "ublic imagination, though nuclear-#ea"ons scientists found nuclear #inter #as 3irtuall& im"ossible to achie3e in their o#n com"uter models #ithout dro""ing @-bombs on nearl& e3er& maFor cit&, !cientists on Monda& sa& n&clear #inter still is possi!le, b& detonating e3er& nation8s entire nuclear arsenals, + e effects are

stri.ing an' last fi"e times or longer than t e cooling effects of t e !iggest "olcanic er&ptions in recent histor&, according to Rutgers8 Roboc5,

Bra6il DA LA Insta!ility Impact

Bra6il is maintaining Latin American sta!ility no#;'eli"ering p&!lic goo's !etter t an t e *( !oosting confi'ence +essman/ 1, - Ph,C, Political !cience, 9ni3ersit& of Colorado, assistant "rofessor of International 2ffairs and associate director of the Center for the !tud& of Global Issues (Globis1 at the 9ni3ersit& of Georgia (7roc5 F,, L!&stem !tructure and !tate !trateg&J 2dding @edging to the Menu,M Ma& ))nd, )*0), %a&lor and Francis >nline1--@24
2 Council on Foreign Relations %as5 Force Re"ort recommended that s"eciTc 7ra=il des5s be created #ithin the !tate Ce"artment and National !ecurit& Council, and suggests that L9,!, "olic&ma5ers recogni=e 7ra=ils standing as a global actor, treat its emergence as an o""ortunit& for the 9nited !tates, and #or5 #ith 7ra=il to de3elo" com"lementar& "olicies,M++ %hus, the best #a& to thin5 of the e3ol3ing relationshi" bet#een 7ra=il and the 9nited !tates is not in terms of a nascent securit& com"etition, but as a Foint ac5no#ledgement that 7ra=il is emerging as a clear regional leader, and that both states share a desire for 7ra=il to ta5e on some of the same res"onsibilities and "ursue some of the same basic interests that the 9nited !tates has in the "ast,+( Is it "ossible, then, that 7ra=ils a""roach to regional leadershi" is an e/am"le of %&"e 7 strategic hedging beha3ior6 If so, one #ould e/"ect 7ra=ilian foreign "olic& in !outh 2merica to address concerns about the "otential loss of "ublic goods or subsidies that the 9nited !tates has historicall& "ro3ided,+X 2s the regional hegemon in 4atin and !outh 2merica for o3er a centur&, the

9nited !tates "ro3ided "ublic goods in the region because it is Llarge enough, #ealth& enough, and most im"ortantl&, has enough sta5e in the "ublic good in Buestion to "a& its entire cost ,M+? In addition to the less tangible (and more debatable1 "ublic good of Lregional stabilit&,M the 9nited !tates has also "ro3ided more identiTable "ublic goods li5e securit& from e/ternal threats, intra-regional conVict mediation, and greater monetar& stabilit& for se3eral !outh 2merican states that #ere e/"eriencing se3ere debt crises, 7ra=ilH"rimaril& through the creation of 9N2!9R and the associated !outh 2merican Cefense CouncilHis dri3ing the de3elo"ment of regional institutions that are increasingl& successful at generating the "ublic goods that the 9nited !tates used to deli3er to the region ,(* %here are signiTcant signs that this e3olution is generating conTdence throughout !outh 2merica , 2s Peter
', Me&er e/"lains in his )*00 Congressional Research !er3ice Re"ort, Lthe successes of 9N2!9R ha3e instilled a conTdence in !outh 2merican nations that the region can resol3e internal "roblems #ithout ha3ing to turn to e/tra-regional "o#ers, such as the 9nited !tates,M(0 2lthough there is no reason to doubt that the 9nited !tates is still committed to the defense of !outh 2merica (and the entire hemis"here1 from e/ternal threats, it is im"ortant to note that, in "ushing to establish the !outh 2merican Cefense Council (CC!1, 7ra=il is interested in ta5ing ste"s to#ard true securit& autonom& for the region, >"erating

the CC! aims for a defense "olic& that succeeds in Lenhancing multilateral militar& coo"eration, "romoting conTdence and securit& building measures and fostering defense industr& e/change,M() 2lthough man& of the obFecti3es identiTed b& the CC! are similar to those sought b& the >rgani=ation of 2merican !tates (>2!1, 7ra=il is increasingl& demonstrating a "reference for building regional forums that do not include the 9nited !tates, In man& #a&s, this tendenc& can be seen as an attem"t to esca"e the shado# of 9! inVuenceJ until )**I, no 9!-su""orted candidate had e3er lost a bid to be secretar&#ithin the 9N2!9R conte/t, general of the >2!, (E 2s 'ohn Chi"man and 'ames 4, !mith note, the ne# !outh 2merican Cefense Council is Linclined to be, in foreign terms, a third-#a& actor in 4atin 2mericaJ res"ectful of desires for 4atin 2merican emanci"ation from a hea3il& burdened "ast #ith 2merica, but #illing to stri5e strong bilateral relationshi"s #here these are sought,M(. 7ra=il is also bolstering

securit& ties 3ia the India-7ra=il-!outh 2frica triad (I7!21, #hichinclude biannual na3al e/ercises that
facilitate coordination bet#een the countries in terms of search and rescue o"erations as #ell as shi""ing securit&,(I

Bra6il regional lea'ers ip is .ey conflict 'iff&ser in t e region;empirics +essman/ 1, - Ph,C, Political !cience, 9ni3ersit& of Colorado, assistant "rofessor of International 2ffairs and associate director of the Center for the !tud& of Global Issues (Globis1 at the 9ni3ersit& of Georgia (7roc5 F,, L!&stem !tructure and !tate !trateg&J 2dding @edging to the Menu,M Ma& ))nd, )*0), %a&lor and Francis >nline1--@24
%hese ca"abilities ma& become increasingl& im"ortant if 9! na3al strength is increasingl& directed a#a& from the !outh 2tlantic and to#ard the Indian and PaciTc >ceans, %hrough 9N2!9R, 7ra=il is also ta5ing on greater res"onsibilit&

for regional conVict mediation that used to be reser3ed for the 9nited !tates or the >2! , %his is needed in light of the massi3e losses in di"lomatic ca"ital that Dashington e/"erienced in the aftermath of the )**E IraB in3asion and the election of se3eral left-leaning go3ernments in 5e& !outh 2merican states, It is relati3el& eas& to identif& recent, and successful, instances of 7ra=ilian conVict mediation through 9N2!9R, In the summer

of )*0*, Colombian "resident 2l3aro 9ribe accused the Cha3e= go3ernment in :ene=uela of harboring Colombian rebel grou"s li5e Re3olutionar& 2rmed Forces of Colombia (F2RC1, Cha3e= res"onded to the allegations b& cutting off di"lomatic relations #ith Colombia, 7ra=il immediatel& offered to mediate the conVict #ithin the conte/t of 9N2!9R, and di"lomatic relations #ere restored after 4ula managed to get Cha3e= and the ne#l& elected Colombian "resident 'uan Manuel !antos to sit do#n and clear the air, Gi3en its contro3ersial lin5ages #ith the Colombian go3ernment, and its strong anti-:ene=uelan stance, it #ould ha3e been nearl& im"ossible for the 9nited !tates to accom"lish #hat 7ra=il did, Moreo3er, b& acting through 9N2!9R, 7ra=il is able to mediate in an efTcient manner, 2s McCall 7reuer e/"lains, Lsu"ranational infrastructure "ro3ides a structure through #hich 7ra=il can "roFect its leadershi" #ithout ha3ing to di3ert more resources than necessar& from the e3er&da& functioning of its o#n go3ernment, militar&, and economic machiner&,M(+ Dith 7ra=il "la&ing an inVuential role, 9N2!9R also contributed to the resolution of conVicts in
7oli3ia in )**X and Ecuador in !e"tember )*0*,((

+ at sol"es glo!al #arfare 9oc lin/ 0E Z'ames Francis, Professor of Political !cience at >5anagan 9, College, Discovering the Americas: The Evolution of Canadian Foreign Policy Towards Latin America , 0E*-0E0, Da5e Earl& 7ird FileR
Dhile there #ere economic moti3ations for Canadian "olic& in Central 2merica, securit& considerations #ere "erha"s more im"ortant, Canada "ossessed an interest in "romoting stabilit& in the face of a "otential decline of 9,!, hegemon& in the 2mericas, Perce"tions of declining 9,!, influence in the region W #hich had some credibilit& in 0?(?-0?X. due to the #ildl& ineBuitable di3isions of #ealth in some 9,!, client states in 4atin 2merica, in addition to "olitical re"ression, underde3elo"ment, mounting e/ternal debt, anti-2merican sentiment "roduced b& decades of subFugation to 9,!, strategic and economic interests, and so on W #ere lin5ed to the "ros"ect of e/"losi3e e3ents occurring in the hemis"here, @ence, the Central 2merican imbroglio #as 3ie#ed as a fuse #hich could ignite a catacl&smic "rocess throughout the region, 2nal&sts at the time #orried that in a #orstcase scenario, instabilit& created b& a regional #ar , beginning in Central 2merica and s"reading else#here in

4atin 2merica, might "reoccu"& Dashington to the e/tent that the 9nited !tates #ould be unable to "erform adeBuatel& its im"ortant hegemonic role in the international arena W a concern e/"ressed b& the director of research for Canadas !tanding Committee Re"ort on Central 2merica, It #as feared that s&c a pre'icament co&l' generate increase' global instability an' "erha"s e3en a hegemonic war, %his is one of the moti3ations #hich
led Canada to become in3ol3ed in efforts at regional conflict resolution, such as Contadora, as #ill be discussed in the ne/t cha"ter,

Bra6il DA (mo.ing Impact

Bra6il regional lea'ers ip is .ey to sol"e smo.ing Kelle& Lee, 4ui= Carlos C agas/ an' %homas E, No"otny/ 1? W (01 Centre on Global Change and @ealth, 4ondon !chool of @&giene P %ro"ical Medicine, 4ondon, 9nited Kingdom, ()1 Inde"endent Researcher W Public @ealth and %rade Policies, 4ondon, 9nited Kingdom, (E1 Graduate !chool of Public @ealth, !an Ciego !tate 9ni3ersit&, !an Ciego, California, 9nited !tates of 2merica (7ra=il and the Frame#or5 Con3ention on %obacco ControlJ Global @ealth Ci"lomac& as !oft Po#er,M 2"ril )*, )*0*, htt"J--###,"losmedicine,org-article-fetch>bFect,action6uriOinfo_E2doi _)F0*,0E(0_)FFournal,"med,0***)E)Pre"resentationOPCF1--@24 7ra=ilian %obacco Control Polic& as an E/em"lar 7ra=ilian leadershi" #as critical to the successful conclusion of the FC%C negotiations in )**E, Follo#ing the establishment of a model national tobacco control "rogram, 7ra=ilian medical doctor and former coordinator of the National %obacco Control Programme, :era 4ui=a da Costa e !il3a, #as recruited to lead D@>s %obacco Free Initiati3e (%FI1, and 7ra=ilian di"lomats #ere a""ointed to chair the Intergo3ernmental Negotiating 7od& (IN71 for the FC%C, 2 fuller understanding of 7ra=ils contribution to the FC%C "rocess ma& "ro3ide lessons about the conduct of global health di"lomac& in other conte/ts, 7ra=ils National %obacco Control Programme im"lemented man& inno3ationsJ 7ra=il #as the second countr& (after Canada1 to ado"t gra"hic #arnings on cigarette "ac5ages, the first to create a bod& to regulate tobacco contents and emissions, and the first to ban the use of ^^light and ^^mild terms in describing tobacco "roducts, 2ccording to an inter3ie# #ith %ania Ca3alcante, E/ecuti3e !ecretar& of the National Inter-ministerial Commission to Im"lement the FC%C, 7ra=il "romoted these ad3ances in man& IN7 negotiation sessions, and encouraged other countries to su""ort them as treat& elements, Im"ortantl&, 7ra=ils status as one of the biggest "roducers and e/"orters of tobacco, #hile at the same time achie3ing high 3isibilit& in tobacco control, "ro3ided additional credibilit& for its leadershi" role in the FC%C negotiations Z0ER, 2s di"lomat Frederico CuBue Estrada Me&er, former assistant to 2mbassadors Celso Nunes 2morim and 4ui=
Feli"e de !ei/as Correa , "ut it, ^^!ome countries ha3e restricti3e anti-smo5ing "olicies li5e 7ra=il, but are not "roducers, >thers, are big "roducers but #ith a 3er& liberal tobacco "olic&c,#e #ere leading on both sidesc,#e re"resented both conflicting interests, In our inter3ie#s, the 7ra=ilian former Cirector of the %FI, :era 4ui=a da Costa e !il3a, further em"hasi=ed this com"le/ negotiating "ositionJ %o be a big "roducer, a big e/"orter #ith a strong and influential industr&, and a big

consumer mar5et for tobacco "roducts, #ith "ressures in the domestic mar5et generated b& allies of a "o#erful industr&, 7ra=il acti3el& su""orted all the D@> resolutions that led to the creation of the Intergo3ernmental Negotiating 7od&, %o be a countr& subFect to all these factors and also able to im"lement tobacco control, #e #ere tal5ing at that time of being a model for other countries, mainl& for de3elo"ing countries, De #ere sending a message that, under an& circumstances, a go3ernment committed to this "riorit&, des"ite the #eight of other factors, could still ha3e one of the best tobacco control "rograms in the #orld and su""ort and ado"t a treat& on tobacco control , (%ranslated from Portuguese1 Coalition Ci"lomac&J 7ringing %ogether Public @ealth and Foreign Polic& 7ra=ils abilit& to gra""le #ith the di3ersit& of interests at the national le3el, including a "o#erful tobacco industr&, began #ith the establishment of the Inter-Ministerial National Commission on the Control of %obacco 9se in 0???, 7ac5ed b& the highest le3els of go3ernment, the Commission #as a consultati3e bod& to determine the official
go3ernment "osition on the FC%C negotiations, Im"ortantl&, nine ministries #ere re"resented on the Commission, including Inland Re3enue, %rade and Ce3elo"ment, and 2griculture Z0.W0IR, %his commission, including all "ertinent sta5eholders, ensured

that tobacco control #as embodied in consistent "olicies throughout go3ernment and not onl& as a
health ministr& issue, %he close in3ol3ement of the Ministr& of Foreign 2ffairs, in "articular, bac5ed b& the highest le3els of go3ernment, ensured a clear and unified endorsement of health goals #ithin 7ra=ilian foreign "olic&J %he "artici"ation of the Ministr& of Foreign 2ffairs in Gene3a clearl& signaled, largel& to tobacco industr& re"resentati3es, that the Go3ernment #as cohesi3e in its "osition against smo5ing, %he Go3ernments stance dis"elled an& doubt that the negotiations could onl& be about health interests, (%ranslated from Portuguese1 ZInter3ie# #ith 2mbassador !antiago 2lca=ar, former Manager of !ocial Issues 9nit, Ministr& of Foreign 2ffairsR %his #as an a""roach that "rotected go3ernmental negotiation "ositions from the 3ested interests of the tobacco industr&, and it can be considered one strateg& for the im"lementation of 2rticle I,E of the FC%C on the "rotection of "ublic health "olicies #ith res"ect to tobacco control from commercial and other 3ested interests, >nce negotiations commenced, the

go3ernment e/tended coalition building to ci3il societ& organi=ations (C!>s1, #hich, through "artici"ation in health councils at the federal, state, and munici"al le3els, mobilised to im"lement tobacco control inter3entions Z0ER, %heir role "ro3ed "articularl& critical in su""orting its subseBuent ratification b& the 7ra=ilian !enate after the signing of the FC%C b& the Chief E/ecuti3e, %he need to build a broad domestic coalition on tobacco control across go3ernment, ci3il societ&, and the "ublic health communit& #as heightened b& the industr&s o#n strategic lobb&ing of related economic interests to hel" it o""ose stronger binding obligations of the FC%C, 2s described in an internal document of 7ritish 2merican %obacco (72%1, released to the "ublic in the 0??*s as a result of 9! litigation Z0+RJ ZDRe 5no# ho# the FC%C #ill be negotiated and #e 5no# #hat countries #ill be in3ol3ed, 2ll end mar5ets ha3e been alerted and 5e& "olitical and legal arguments ha3e been distributedc,7ritish 2merican %obaccos res"onse to

date has consisted of attem"ting to engage in dialogue #ith the D@> , running a lobb&ing cam"aign based
on legal and "olitical arguments designed to "reser3e adults freedom to smo5e, maintain our abilit& to trade freel& and to raise a#areness of the FC%Cs im"lications among finance, trade, agriculture and em"lo&ment ministers around the #orld, De ha3e had some success in some countries but it is b& no means com"lete, Z0(R 7ra=il is cited b& the industr& as among

the 5e& countries #here such a strategic a""roach #as needed , Faced #ith this industr& threat, 7ra=il then e/tended its coalition building to the regional and global le3els , In addition to formal FC%C
negotiations, informal meetings #ere held, according to Cal3acante, as ^^a strateg& ado"ted b& chairs of different #or5ing subgrou"s #hen there #as an im"asse and consensus could not be reached, 7ra=il "la&ed an acti3e "art in man& of these

meetings, es"eciall& at the regional le3el, she saidJ ^^%he obFecti3e #as to start so#ing regional consensus before the
IN7 negotiations to s"eed u" the "rocess, De organised the first meeting for the 2mericas region,, 2t the same time, C!> acti3it& #as organised through the Frame#or5 Con3ention 2lliance (FC21, a #orld#ide coalition of nongo3ernmental organi=ations and interested "arties, #hich "la&ed an im"ortant contributor& role in FC%C negotiations, ratification, and im"lementation Z0XR, 2s 2lca=ar #rites, ^^ZdRifferent grou"s in ci3il societ& come together as an interested "art& in the "rocess of im"lementing an international treat&, It is as if ci3il societ&, as an interested "art&Hand certainl& an unstructured oneHbecomes a "la&er on the international stage Z0ER, 7ra=ilian 4eadershi" in Global Negotiations 2 strategicall& im"ortant decision b& the D@> %FI #as the a""ointment of Celso Nunes 2morim, then 7ra=ils Permanent Re"resentati3e to the 9nited Nations and other international organi=ations in Gene3a, as IN7 Chair, 2morim #as recognised as a s5illed and e/"erienced di"lomat, "articularl& during his tenure as negotiator in 9N tal5s on disarmament, trade, and securit&, %he 9! delegation described him as ^^a stead& hand and Z"ro3idingR good leadershi" Z0?R, Dhen 2morim became 2mbassador to the 9nited Kingdom in )**), he #as succeeded as IN7 Chair b& another e/"erienced di"lomat, 4ui= Feli"e de !ei/as Correa, 2long #ith s5ilful di"lomats, 7ra=il #as enabled b& the strong su""ort of the Minister of @ealth, 'osem !erra, #ho recogni=ed that the international negotiating "rocess had direct effects on 7ra=ilian national tobacco control efforts and "ublic health, according to :era 4ui=a da Costa e !il3a, 2s an emerging econom&,

7ra=ilian su""ort for the FC%C #as im"ortant for countering industr&-led arguments that tobacco control #as a ^^first #orld issue, Ces"ite e"idemiological e3idence to the contrar& Z)*R, the industr& claimed
that the first #orld, 2nglo-!a/on and English s"ea5ing "olitical economies, ,,, are fuelling the debate and in man& cases dri3ing the "olitical agenda #ithin the D@>, Most third #orld countries ha3e other "riorities but are not able to resist the "ace, dri3e and "olitical d&namics #hich are mo3ing the FC%C for#ard, Z)0R %o counter such claims, the %FI sought to build su""ort #ithin the de3elo"ing #orld, %he si/ de"ut& chairs of the IN7 to lead s"ecific #or5ing grou"sHthe 9!, 2ustralia, Iran, India, !outh 2frica, and %ur5e&H#ere carefull& selected to ensure both de3elo"ed and de3elo"ing countr& re"resentation and to encourage regional acti3ism, %he !outheast 2sia %obacco Control 2lliance (!E2%C21, formed in )**0, "la&ed a similar role, In 4atin 2merica,

regional meetings #ere held to build consensus #ithin such grou"s as the Grou" of 4atin 2merica and Caribbean Countries (GR942C1 and Mercosur (Mercado Comumn del !ur1J Grou" meetings of this
nature ha""en regularl& in Gene3a and are o""ortunities to discuss a di3ersit& of themes, #hich are discussed in a di"lomatic conte/t, 2s 7ra=il #as chairing the treat& negotiations, it had a "ri3ileged forum to am"lif& the

rele3ance and im"ortance of #hat the D@> #as "ro"osing, (%ranslated from Portuguese1 ZInter3ie# #ith :era 4ui=a da Costa e !il3aR 7ra=il then used its di"lomatic channels to build lin5ages across regions J
%he& not onl& "erformed their role during the meetings, but also too5 ad3antage of meetings #ith re"resentati3es of other countries and regions at their res"ecti3e "ermanent missions in Gene3a to disseminate information about the contents and sco"e of the treat&, es"eciall& about the necessit& of countries to gi3e "riorit& to this "ublic health subFect in "arallel #ith the ^^great star in the cit& #hich #as the Dorld %rade >rgani=ation, (%ranslated from Portuguese1 ZInter3ie# #ith :era 4ui=a da Costa e !il3aR %he result

of this effort #as effecti3e e/"anded "artici"ation b& de3elo"ing countries in the negotiations J
%hose de3elo"ing countries, #hich #ere under assault b& massi3e tobacco industr& mar5eting and "olitical "ressure cam"aigns, ha3e fought bac5 in Gene3a, and the strengthening of the treat& during this last round of negotiations is

tribute to their courage and "ersistence in resisting the efforts b& the 9nited !tates, German& and
'a"an to #ea5en the treat& and #ater do#n crucial clauses, Ce3elo"ing countries formed a strong alliance #ith NG>s and cham"ioned our "ositions during the negotiations, Z))R Conclusions 7ra=ils leadershi" in global health di"lomac&

must be understood as "art of the countr&s "olitical and economic ascendance in international relations, 2s the #orlds tenth largest econom&, and an integrated member of the #orld trading s&stem, the countr&s influence o3er a #ide range of global health issues is li5el& to gro# in coming decades, 7ra=il has recognised that traditional "ractices of hard "o#er can be ina""ro"riate in a globali=ed #orld, Its understanding of soft "o#er, in the form of normati3e leadershi" and the use of ^^o"inion-sha"ing instruments Z)ER, suggests that a ne# 5ind of di"lomac& is emerging to achie3e collecti3e action on shared challenges

such as global health, %hrough its "rinci"led stance on 2R:s, and its domestic commitment to strong and effecti3e tobacco control, 7ra=il has earned #ides"read credibilit& as a di"lomatic leader , %his, in turn, has hel"ed to reinforce domestic "olic& on tobacco control, 7ra=ils remar5able e/am"le also suggests that engagement in health
di"lomac& is increasingl& seen as a core com"onent of #hat it means to be a global citi=en Z).R,

(mo.ing #ill .ill a !illion people Rebecca C, )ent6 an' Carla ', Berg/ 1? - Ph,C,, Emor& 9ni3ersit& !chool of Medicine, 2NC, (L!mo5ing and EthicsJ Dhat 2re the Cuties of >ncologists6M 2ugust ).th, )*0*, %he >ncologist !e"tember )*0* 3ol, 0I no, ? ?X(-??E, Google !cholar1--@24 %@E %>72CC> EPICEMIC %he Dorld @ealth >rgani=ation (D@>1s )**? re"ort on the #orlds tobacco e"idemic continues the alarming stor&, no# much too familiar, In the last centur&, tobacco 5illed one hundred million "eo"le, and #ithout inter3ention, it #ill 5ill one billion in this centur&, %obacco-related deaths 5ill more "eo"le than 2IC!, tuberculosis, and malaria together, China alone
has E)* million smo5ers and is the maFor cigarette consumer in the #orld, accounting for E(_ of demand Z0R, %oda&, (*_ of tobacco-related deaths occur in under-resourced countries, and this "ercentage #ill rise to X*_ b& )*E* Z)R, Northern 2frica, Destern 2sia, !outheast 2sia, and !outh and Central 2merica are "redicted to ha3e a (I_W0**_ increase in cancer deaths from )*** to )*)* if the #ides"read use of tobacco continues at the current rate and if infections li5e the human "a"illoma3irus and he"atitis 7 and C are not contained ZER, 2nd there is no sign that tobacco consum"tion is declining in the

under-resourced #orldN this &ear, the under-resourced #orld #ill consume (0_ of all tobacco "roducts Z.R, %obacco is not Fust 5illing smo5ers, 2bout )**,*** #or5ers die each &ear because of smo5e-filled #or5"laces, @alf of the countries in the #orld, re"resenting t#o thirds of the #orlds "o"ulation, allo# smo5ing in the #or5"lace Z.R, Inhaling secondhand smo5e increases the ris5 for lung cancer in nonsmo5ers b& E*_ ZIR, Nearl& half the #orlds childrenH(** millionH breathe tobacco smo5e ,
often in their o#n homes, Furthermore, adolescents #ho gro# u" in smo5ing homes are more li5el& to smo5e themsel3es Z+, (R, In short, L%obacco use is the most "re3entable cause of death , @al3ing tobacco consum"tion no# #ould "re3ent )* WE* million "eo"le from d&ing before )*)I and 0(* W0X* million "eo"le from d&ing before )*I* from all tobaccorelated diseases including cancerM ZER

Bra6il DA (oft )o#er Impact

Brailian egemony .ey to glo!al cooperation/ energy an' agric&lt&re W ite/ 1? W PhC in Political !tudies from the 9ni3ersit& of Ca"e %o#n, inde"endent researcher and consultant s"ecialising in "olitical econom& issues in 2frica, 2sia and 4atin 2merica, Gordon Institute of 7usiness !cience, 9ni3ersit& of Pretoria, !outh 2frica (4&al, L9nderstanding 7ra=ils ne# dri3e for 2frica,M !outh 2frican 'ournal of International 2ffairs, htt"J--###,tandfonline,com,e="0,lib,umn,edu-doi-abs-0*,0*X*-0*))*.+0,)*0*,.?.E.Ik,9cE .I=sB]s51--@24 %he rise of 7ra=il as an emerging "o#er 4ong described as ^the countr& of the future H and al#a&s #ill be , 0+ 7ra=ils astonishing ascent in the last decade has silenced its critics #ho doubted it #ould e3er realise its true "otential, !uch "otential, based on the countr&s 3ast territor&, "o"ulation and economic si=e and dominance
in !outh 2merica and its arra& of natural resources, has eluded 7ra=il since the countr& #as first 3aunted as an emerging "o#er in the 0?I*s, Instead, the "romise of a "ros"erous future #as re"laced b& "olitical instabilit& and successi3e economic failures that culminated in a m&riad of social "roblems that made 7ra=il one of the most 3iolent and uneBual countries in the #orld throughout the 0?X*s and 0??*s, Economic stagnation in the 0?X*s H 5no#n as the ^lost decade H and lac5-lustre "erformance in the 0??*s further dee"ened ineBualit& and "o3ert& le3els, In the earl& 0??*s inflation stood at a""ro/imatel& (*_ "er month, #hich mar5ed the "ea5 of a .* &ear "eriod #here inflation out"aced annual gross domestic "roduct (GCP1 gro#th,0( In recent &ears the stor& of 7ra=il has changed, !ince )*** sustained economic gro#th and falling social ineBualit& has H for the first time in decades H follo#ed 7ra=ilian "olitical stabilit& , #hich #as entrenched in the mid-0??*s b& former "resident Fernando @erniBue Cardoso, 7et#een )**E and )**X 7ra=il enFo&ed its best economic "erformance in more than )I &ears, #ith economic gro#th a3eraging I_ "er annum, Foreign in3estment reached record le3els of [.I billion in )**X

and a fa3ourable trade balance, #ith e/"orts e/ceeding [(** billion, is dri3ing 7ra=ils e/"ort-led gro#th,0X 2ll this has translated into greater global influence, "roFecting the 7ra=ilian 3oice be&ond 4atin 2merica and the traditional de3elo"ing !outh into a ne# league of leading global "o#ers alongside China, India and the 9nited !tates, 2fter &ears of under"erformance and dashed e/"ectations, 7ra=il, it seems, has finall& arri3ed, 7ra=ils emergence and recent economic success can be attributed to a fortuitous combination of factors and e3ents,
%hese include "olitical leadershi" and a""ro"riate successionN the seBuencing of tough reforms dating bac5 to the earl& 0??*sN #ell formulated and e/ecuted social "oliciesN the commodit& boomN and a fa3ourable international en3ironment, >n to" of this, ne# oil de"osits #ere disco3ered off the coast of Rio de 'aneiro #hich, once e/"loited, #ill con3ert 7ra=il from a net im"orter to a net e/"orter of oil, 7ra=il is scheduled also to host the #orlds t#o largest s"orting e3ents, the International Football Federation (Fifa1 Dorld Cu" football finals in )*0., and the !ummer >l&m"ics in Rio de 'aneiro in )*0+, 2ll this has inFected a #a3e of o"timism and enthusiasm in 7ra=il, #hich has instilled a ne# sense of confidence and global leadershi" in the countr&, 7ra=il finall& seems

to be embracing its role as a global "la&er that e/tends #ell be&ond 4atin 2merica and con3entional multilateral actions, engaging directl& on a "olitical, commercial and de3elo"mental le3el in regions across the globe,0? 7ra=ils global emergence has been characterised b& not onl& a
rise in in#ard in3estment flo#s, but also an increase in out#ard in3estment ("redominantl& in the de3elo"ing #orld1 and #ith that a "ro3ider of de3elo"ment assistance, In )**+ out#ard bound foreign direct in3estment (FCI1 flo#s for the first time matched inbound FCI, In that &ear inbound FCI stoc5 reached in e/cess of [E)X,I billion, #hile outbound FCI stoc5 totalled [0)?,X billion, #hich is e/ce"tionall& high considering 7ra=ilian in3estors are still relati3el& ne# "la&ers in foreign mar5ets, It is also indicati3e of 7ra=ils coming of age,)* It is this ne# found out#ard orientation of the 7ra=ilian econom& that distinguishes 7ra=ils rise, as #ell as the e/citement around its economic "otential, from "ast ^miracle "eriods, In the late 0?+*s and earl& 0?(*s, for instance, 7ra=il enFo&ed a 0*_ annual economic gro#th for se3en consecuti3e &ears, %his figure constituted one of the #orlds highest gro#th rates of that time, It is true that agricultural e/"orts boomed during this "eriod, but a lac5 of "roduct and mar5et di3ersit& made it e/tremel& 3ulnerable to both internal and e/ternal shoc5s, and 7ra=il soon fell 3ictim to economic crises in the earl& 0?X*s, %oda& 7ra=il is no longer sim"l& e/"orting commodities, %rue, 7ra=ils commodit& mi/ H from so& beans, beef and orange Fuice to iron ore H has been a fundamental contributor to its recent #ealth accumulation, as booming mar5ets from the 9nited !tates to China demand food and ra# materials, 7ut it is more the choice of "olicies and the seBuencing of long term structural reforms (#hich ha3e finall& settled after a long "eriod of adFustment1 that ha3e enabled 7ra=il to ca"italise on the commodit& boom, #hile other countries H li5e !outh 2frica H ha3e not,)0 %his is #hat distinguishes 7ra=il from other commodit& e/"orters, %he 7roo5ings Institute, in a recent "ublication, describes 7ra=il as ^rea"ing the benefits of its legac& of "olicies, )) Ironicall&, it has been those 3er& same "rotectionist "olicies from the 0?+*s, 0?(*s and 0?X*s that #ere designed to ma5e 7ra=il self-sufficient and to em"o#er the state through a large and controlling "ublic sector that ha3e created internationall& com"etiti3e and technologicall& su"erior 7ra=ilian multinational cor"orations (MNCs1 and de3elo"ment agencies toda&, In the 0??*s, before 7ra=ils "ri3atisation dri3e, EX of 7ra=ils 0** largest firms #ere still go3ernment o#ned, Go3ernment-controlled Petrobras is still #idel& regarded as the largest com"an& headBuartered in the southern hemis"here,)E Dhile a large bod& of literature). describes the state-led de3elo"ment

"olicies ado"ted b& 7ra=il decades ago as ^costl& and counter"roducti3e, the legac& of these "olicies is "arado/icall&, it seems, the foundation for 7ra=ils out#ard-loo5ing business and "olitical leaders , %hese "olicies

hel"ed de3elo" a com"etiti3e ad3antage in sectors li5e agribusiness, biofuels (bioethanol in "articular1 and resource e/traction, the underl&ing ser3ices and e/"ertise for de3elo"ment of #hich are no# being e/"orted around the
#orld, !uch "rolonged autonom& from international mar5ets in 7ra=il also hel"ed de3elo" s5illed technocrats, bureaucrats and s&stems geared to#ard inno3ati3e social "rogrammes and broad-based de3elo"ment, 4essons in social de3elo"ment (es"eciall& in areas such as @I:-2IC! a#areness1 ha3e long been instructi3e for 2frican countries, 7ut certain "rogrammes around conditional cash transfers, incenti3ebased education, commercial farming and rene#able energ& (to name a fe#1 are no# acti3el& being e/"orted to 2frican countries in #hat 7ra=ilians call a transfer of ^social technolog&, )I %his is a dimension of 7ra=ilian

internationalisation that transcends 3arious sectors rele3ant to both social and commercial de3elo"ment, and #hich has become an im"ortant com"onent of 7ra=ilian foreign "olic& in both 4atin 2merica and 2frica, %his dimension recei3es further attention belo#, 9ltimatel&, 7ra=ils "rotectionist "olicies from the 0?+*s to 0?X*s ha3e unintentionall& gi3en it a com"etiti3e ad3antage in a range of commercial and social sectors "articularl& rele3ant in the de3elo"ing #orld, %his has not onl& hel"ed "osition it more steadfastl& as an emerging "o#er, but has "ro3ided tangible areas of foreign engagement be&ond traditional trade and "olitical relations, re3ealing ne# dri3ers of 7ra=ilian foreign "olic& in the form of in3estment, de3elo"ment coo"eration, technolog& transfer, energ& and agriculture
H all of #hich are interconnected and rele3ant to 2frica,

+ at sol"es ine"ita!le n&clear proliferation Bra6ilian infl&ence is &ni1&ely .ey 9ot .opf/ 1, (Ca3id, 3isiting scholar at the Carnegie Endo#ment for International Peace, chair of the Carnegie Economic !trateg& Roundtable, President and CE> of Garten Roth5o"f, Editor-at-4arge of Foreign Polic&, L7ra=il8s Ne# !#agger,M Foreign Polic&, )-)X-0), htt"J--###,foreign"olic&,com-articles-)*0)-*)-)X-bra=ilQsQne#Qs#agger1
Nonetheless, after o3er a &ear in office, des"ite facing great domestic and international challenges, Rousseff has alread& earned a higher "o"ularit& rating than did 4ula at a similar "oint in his tenure, 2nd )atriota is Buietl& and, in the e&es of close obser3ers, #ith great deftness, !&il'ing on 2morim8s groundbrea5ing #or5 to establish Bra6il the #orld8s ma=or

as a lea'er among po#ers, $De ha3e a great ad3antage,$ notes Patriota, $De ha3e no real enemies, no battles on our borders, no great historical or contem"orar& ri3als among the ran5s of the other im"ortant "o#ers c and long-standing ties #ith man& of the #orld8s emerging and de3elo"ed nations,$ %his is a status enFo&ed b& none of the other 7RICs -- China, India, and Russia -- nor, for that matter, b& an& of the #orld8s traditional maFor "o#ers, %his unusual
"osition is strengthened further b& the fact that 7ra=il is not in3esting as hea3il& as other rising "o#ers in militar& ca"abilities, Indeed, as %om !hannon, the 9,!, ambassador to Bra6il, has noted, the countr& is one of the fe# to effecti"ely sta.e

its f&t&re on the #ise a""lication of soft po#er -- di"lomac&, economic le3erage, common interests, It8s surel& no coincidence that, in areas from climate change to trade, from nonproliferation to de3elo"ment, 7ra=il under 4ula and 2morim and under Rousseff and Patriota has been gaining strength b& translating stead& gro#th at home and acti3e di"lomac& abroad into effecti3e international net#or5s,

)roliferation ca&ses glo!al n&clear #ar %&ller/ 8 director of the Peace Research Institute Fran5furt in German& and a "rofessor of
international relations at Fran5furt 9ni3ersit& Z@arald, L%he Future of Nuclear Dea"ons in an Interde"endent Dorld,M !"ring *X, %he Dashington guarterl& s E0J) "", +EW(IR A #orl' pop&late' !y many n&clear-#eapon states poses gra"e 'angers2 9egional conflicts co&l' escalate to t e n&clear le"el2 + e optimistic e@pectation of a &ni"ersal la# accor'ing to # ic n&clear 'eterrence pre"ents all #ars 0I rests on scant historical e3idence and is dangerousl& nai3e2 N&clear &ses in one part of t e #orl' co&l' trigger Lcatal&tic #arM bet#een greater "o#ers, 'ra#ing t em into smaller regional conflicts/ partic&larly if tensions are ig 2 %his #as al#a&s a fear during the Cold Dar, and it moti3ated non"roliferation "olic& in the first "lace, Moreo3er, t e more states t at possess n&clear #eapons an' relate' facilities/ t e more points of access are a"aila!le to terrorists2

Bra6il DA Warming Impact

*( *nilateralism pre"ents Bra6ilian lea'ers ip t at sol"es glo!al #arming Hoc stetler an' <iola/ 1, CIGI Chair of Go3ernance in the 2mericas in the 7alsillie !chool of International 2ffairs and Professor of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Daterloo, 2NC, PhC in Political !cience from the 9ni3ersit& of !ao Paulo, Full Professor at the Institute of International Relations, 9ni3ersit& of 7rasilia (Kathr&n and Eduardo, L7ra=il and the "olitics of climate changeJ be&ond the global commons,M 'ul& ).th, )*0), htt"J--d/,doi,org-0*,0*X*-*?+..*0+,)*0),+?XXX.1--@24 2s normall& understood, climate change is a classic ^commons "roblem, #hich no indi3idual actor can sol3e, !ince reducing emissions is costl&, doing so unilaterall& #ould mean acce"ting a com"arati3el& disad3antaged "osition #ith minimal beneTt for the en3ironment , 9nilateral action to address climate change is thus irrational, and an actors best o"tion is to shir5, doing nothing #hile others address the "roblem (Est& 0???, !unstein )**(, "", )WE, Keohane and :ictor )*00, ", 0E1, 2 state that #ants to address climate change should see5 formal international coo"eration , as it
should #ant to see other states bound b& institutions that ^hel" states achie3e their obFecti3es through reducing contracting costs, "ro3iding focal "oints, enhancing information and therefore credibilit&, monitoring com"liance, and assisting in sanctioning de3iant beha3ior (Keohane and :ictor )*00, ", X1, For a decade, the largest emitter, the 9nited !tates, framed its

un#illingness to sign onto a global climate "rotocol in these terms ,

com"laining that e/isting te/ts did not bind free-riding large emerging countries to reduce their emissions (Engel and !ales5a )**I, "", 0?)W0?E, Roberts and Par5s )**(1, No# 7ra=il and !outh 2frica ha3e "ledged to reduce their emissions #hile China and India #ill lo#er their emissions intensit&, but the four ha3e coo"erated in resisting doing so in #a&s that bind them internationall&, a stance #hich ma5es it "oliticall& dicult for them to demand that from others (Cimitro3 )*0*1, Gi3en the costliness of emissions reductions, these choices reBuire e/"lanation as the& do not follo# a commons logic, >ur anal&sis is guided b& the #or5 of a fe# authors #ho ha3e suggested that the commons analog& does not hold for some "articularl& large countries, Engel and !ales5a use game theoretic anal&sis to demonstrate that the classic commons model of climate change assumes a situation #here "artici"ants are a""ro/imatel& eBual, #hile some emitters are actuall& large enough that the& can a ect outcomes on their o#n or in small grou"ings, %his gi3es them dierent interests, including ^an incenti3e to reduce emissions e3en in the absence of an international agreement (Engel and !ales5a )**I, "", )*?, )*I1, Mancur >lsons classic #or5 on ^oligo"olies in "ublic goods "ro3ision concurs (>lson 0?+I1, 4arge emitters ha3e often done less to reduce their climate im"act than this incenti3e

for unilateralism #ould suggest, ho#e3er, In such

cases the& a""ear to be res"onding to "ressures from disad3antaged domestic interest grou"s (Engel and !ales5a )**I, ", )0.1, Dhile large emitters ma& ha3e "articular domestic beneTts to gain from unilateral action, debate o3er such action ine3itabl& o"ens the door to Buestions about "articular domestic costs, %hus domestic costWbeneTt calculations determine the beha3iour of large emitters, a claim su""orted b& the 9! e/"erience (!unstein )**(, ", I1, %he argument #e de3elo" here is that the choices of the emerging "o#ers oer additional su""ort for this

^uncommon 3ie# of climate "olitics , In large emitters, #e contend, debates about costs and beneTts at the domestic le3el are "articularl& im"ortant for determining the timing and e/tent of commitments to reduce greenhouse gas (G@G1 emissions, %his means loo5ing at an arra& of actorsJ ^"arties,
social classes, interest grou"s (both economic and noneconomic1, legislators, and e3en "ublic o"inion and elections, not sim"l& e/ecuti3e ocials and institutional arrangements (Putnam 0?XX, ", .E)1, De therefore begin b& e/amining the

debate around climate action in 7ra=il, De trace its ne# #illingness to ma5e 3oluntar& commitments abroad "rimaril& to changes at the nation-state le3el and belo#, Tnding that 7ra=ils negotiating "ositions res"onded to ne# national conTgurations of actors and "references, In broad terms, the ne# "olicies res"ond to a domestic coalition of ^7a"tists and bootleggers (Ce!ombre )***,
"", .*W.E1 that emerged in the late )***s, #hen "rinci"led actors found common ground #ith self-interested ones to "romote "olic& change, >nce 7ra=il had decided to ta5e action on climate change, it still needed to decide

ho# to engage in the international negotiations, !ince )**? it has done so in coordination #ith other emerging "o#ers in the 72!IC coalition , %he 72!IC countries stress their anit& #ith the G(( of de3elo"ing
countries, but the& occu"& an increasingl& distinct "osition, some#here outside the NorthW !outh framing that has traditionall& di3ided climate "olitics (Roberts and Par5 )**(1, In the second em"irical section of our article, #e discuss this uneas& alliance, #hose members domesticall& grounded "ositions on international action ha3e brought "oints of both coordination and conVict, 2s should be clear, #e are not de3elo"ing a general e/"lanation of #h& countries Foin international accords, Instead, #e are ma5ing a s"eciTc argument about #h& a small set of countries W unusual in their si=e, economic "roTle, "olitical

#eight, and contribution to both a global "roblem and its "otential solution W ha3e ta5en "articular stances in negotiations o3er international res"onses to climate change, For these emerging
"o#ers domestic "olitical debates are es"eciall& im"ortant for determining #hen the& decide to ta5e on commitments to action,

2fter a brief sur3e& of global climate negotiations, #e mo3e to the case stud& of 7ra=il, and sho# ho# e3ol3ing domestic "ositions led its "oliticians in )**? to 3irtuall& simultaneousl& "ass domestic climate legislation and acce"t greater "artici"ation in global climate action, Dith all the 72!IC countries reaching the "oint of considering some "ossibilit& of global action after )**(, the follo#ing section on the 72!IC coalition sho#s ho# coordination #ith each other hel"ed to establish Fust ho# those commitments #ould be made internationall&, 2lternati3e e/"lanations >ur argument Tts #ith "ast #or5s that stress the im"ortance of domestic sources of international action, es"eciall& those that see a multi"licit& of actorsand interests in com"etition #ith each other to sha"e national foreign "olicies (e,g, Putnam 0?XX, Mora3csi5 0??(1, De do not address other "otential e/"lanations in detail, but se3eral "rominent alternati3es are dicult to reconcile #ith basic elements of the global climate negotiations, >ne maFor set of

e/"lanations of international coo"eration focuses on the role of hegemonic "o#ers (e,g, Keohane
0?X.1, %hese large and "o#erful countries are seen to com"el international agreements through some combination of coercion, side-"a&ments, and leadershi", In the climate regime, the ob3ious candidate for hegemon&, the 9nited !tates, has &et to

ma5e its o#n treat& commitment to climate action J it signed, but did not ratif&, the

K&oto Protocol, and since #ithdre# from it, It has tried to insist on legal obligations for the emerging "o#ers, ma5ing that a condition of its o#n "artici"ation as earl& as 0??(, but has not been #illing or able to com"el them to Foin, 2nother set of internationall& grounded e/"lanations of coo"eration "ro"oses that international coo"eration ma& come as norms "ass through a ti""ing "oint #hen ^a critical mass of rele3ant state actors ado"t the norm, setting o a ^norm cascade (Finnemore and !i55in5 0??X, ", X?I1, Not all norms "ass through such a ti""ing "oint, ho#e3er, and the norm of ta5ing on climate action obligations arguabl& has not, In fact, #hile the

72!IC countries began to ta5e on 3oluntar& climate action obligations after )**?, man& of the

most committed norms holders W Euro"eans, en3ironmental acti3ists W sa# them as actuall& abrogating the most im"ortant elements of a global climate agreement, commitments to legall& binding and 3eriTable action (Cimitro3 )*0*1, Finall&, it is "ossible to inter"ret the outcomes of interest here as a t#o-le3el game, #here leaders ma5e choices facing both domestic and international arenas (Putnam 0?XX1, Nonetheless, #e retain our domestic focus since the domestic #in-sets that #ould allo# climate action for these countries ha3e been Buite small and restricti3e, De sho# for the 7ra=ilian case that the changes

enlarging that #in-set #ere "rimaril& domestic (albeit sometimes in res"onse to

international de3elo"ments outside the formal negotiations1 and brieV& sur3e& su""orting e3idence for the other countries, %he 72!IC countries decreasing abilit& to Tnd common #in-sets e3en among the four after )**? also endorses focusing on domestic constraints, Emerging "o#ers in the historical global climate regime com"le/ %he e/isting climate regime is fragmented, #ith #ea5

interstate negotiations at the core of a di3erse set of acti3ities, actors, and institutions (Engel and

!ales5a )**I, Ce"ledge )**+, Cimitro3 )*0*, Keohane and :ictor )*001, %he 9nited Nations Frame#or5 Con3ention on Climate Change (9NFCCC1 of 0??) has Fust one "rotocol, the 0??( K&oto Protocol, It sets emissions reduction targets for the industrialised and "ost-!o3iet (^2nne/ 01 countries, at le3els that follo#ed "olitical rather than en3ironmental logics, %he K&oto Protocol follo#s the 9NFCCCs "rinci"le of ^common but dierentiated res"onsibilities, s"litting the #orld into de3elo"ed and de3elo"ing "arts, !ince K&oto, the emerging "o#ers ha3e occu"ied an a#5#ard "osition in this di3ide, and negotiations o3er "ost-K&oto arrangements ha3e struggled o3er their role, 2t the start of international climate negotiations, China and India of the 72!IC countries alread& made signiTcant aggregate contributions to global G@G emissions, 7& )*0*, the a""ro/imate shares of global climate emissions (carbon dio/ide, methane, and nitrous o/ide1 had risen to a )._ share for China (+ tons of C>) eBui3alent "er ca"ita1, #ith India at (_ () tons "er ca"ita1, 7ra=il ._ (? tons "er ca"ita1, and !outh 2frica 0,I_ (0) tons "er ca"ita1 (:iola )*0*1, Ces"ite their emissions le3els, no one #ould ha3e identiTed the 72!IC countries as ^emerging "o#ers in 0??*, 2ll #ere undergoing "olitical u"hea3al, Economicall&, their combined gross domestic "roduct (GCP1 (PPP1 #as Fust 00_ of the global total in 0??), although it doubled to ))_ in )**?, %heir a3erage GCP-ca"ita is still Fust (E_ of the global mean, Most of the gains came in the )***s,0 %hus in the initial decade of climate negotiations, their #eight in global emissions #as clearl& o set b& their continuing status as "oor economies, Corres"ondingl&, the e3entual emerging "o#ers #ere unconVicted about

their "osition in the 0??*s agreementsJ the& #ere "art of the de3elo"ing #orld, %he& insisted on Northern countries historic res"onsibilit& for G@G emissions and the Norths much greater abilit& to
address the "roblem (Roberts and Par5 )**(1, %he emerging "o#ers continued to negotiate alongside smaller and "oorer countries in the G((-China bloc through most of the )***s e3en as the& began to gro# ra"idl& and garner attention, 9ntil )**(, the& #ere un#illing to ma5e an& commitments internationall& to reduce their emissions, and then onl& general commitments to the 7ali roadma", #hich called for a second set of K&oto-based obligations and some form of action b& countries not bound b& the K&oto Protocol (Friberg )**?, ", E??1, %he )*00 Curban agreement reiterated this "lan, It is still the case that no "art of the e/isting global climate regime com"le/ reBuires the 72!IC countries to limit their emissions of G@G, but the& all s"eciTed "ublic 3oluntar& commitments to do so at the end of )**?, and formall& "resented commitments to the 9nited Nations at the beginning of )*0* in res"onse to the (unado"ted1 Co"enhagen 2ccord,) In Cancumn in )*0*, these became o ciall& recognised as ^nationall& a""ro"riate mitigation actions, !ome X* de3elo"ed and de3elo"ing countries made similar commitments, including all the maFor emitters, %here is a unilateral Bualit& to these commitments in that each countr& has sim"l& announced its o#n 3oluntar& targets, chosen its o#n timeframe, and #ill underta5e its o#n "referred means for achie3ing the target, 7ra=il "romised a set of

actions to reduce )*)* emissions b& E+,0WEX,?_ belo# #hat the& #ould other#ise ha3e been , #hile !outh 2frica "romised a similar E._ reduction, China and India ha3e committed to reduce their emission intensit&, #ith China aiming to lo#er its carbon dio/ide emissions "er unit of GCP b& .*W.I_ belo# )**I le3els b&
)*)*, and India "romising a dro" of )*W)I_ in the same time frame, In Cancumn, the& agreed to the "ossibilit& of monitoring, o3ersight, and 3eriTcation as #ell as international consultation and anal&sis, although the details still ha3e to be negotiated, In the ne/t section, #e trace the changes that "ushed 7ra=il to ma5e its un"recedented commitment to climate action, 7a"tists and bootleggersJ the domestic "olitics of climate "olic& in 7ra=il 7ra=il occu"ies a uniBue "osition in the global

carbon c&cle, 9nli5e its fello#

72!IC countries, carbon

emissions from the modern sector of the econom&

W industr&, energ&, and trans"ortation W are alread& Buite lo# in 7ra=il, 2n energ& sector strongl& grounded in rene#able energies li5e h&dro"o#er and biofuels accounts for this outcome, Instead, land use and land use change, es"eciall& deforestation, accounted for +0_ of 7ra=ils G@G emissions in the
!econd National Emissions In3entor& Communication of )**I, #hile agriculture contributed another 0?_ (7ra=il )*0*a1, 7et#een 7ra=ils Trst G@G in3entor& in 0??. and the second in )**I, annual emissions from deforestation gre# II_, from X** million tons of C>) to 0,)I billion (7ra=il )**., )*0*a1, %hese features form a bac5dro" for 7ra=ils e3ol3ing climate

stances, 7ra=il has al#a&s had some actors #ith strong "rinci"led commitments to national climate action W those Ce!ombre ()***1 #ould call ^7a"tists, %hrough most of 7ra=ils "artici"ation in global climate
negotiations, the& failed to inVuence national re"resentati3es #ho "referred to stress the historical res"onsibilit& of de3elo"ed countries to act Trst, In this section, #e sur3e& 7ra=ils initial climate "ositions, De then trace the multi"le domestic

changes after the mid-)***s that e3entuall& culminated in ne# international negotiating "ositions at the end of that decade, %hese included sur"rising ne# success at controlling deforestation, the ne#
"rominence of actors #ho su""orted climate action for instrumental reasons (^bootleggers1, and "ublic su""ort for climate action that e3en s"illed into the )*0* "residential election, 7ra=il in the K&oto negotiations W the starting "osition In the initial &ears of climate negotiations, the Foreign Ministr& and the Ministr& of !cience and %echnolog& led 7ra=ilian delegations to climate meetings, In the K&oto negotiation "rocess (0??+W)**01, the& #ere guided b& a deTnition of 7ra=ils

national interest that trac5ed closel& #ith its broader foreign "olic& (7urges )**?1, %his armed the right to de3elo"ment as a fundamental com"onent of #orld order, and asserted a leadershi" role for 7ra=il commensurate #ith the gro#th in its international stature during the Cardoso administrations (0??IW)**)1, 9nli5e its stance in the 0?() !toc5holm Conference, 7ra=il also armed a 3ision of de3elo"ment #ith en3ironmental sustainabilit&, but as5ed that de3elo"ed countries "ro3ide funding for climate mitigation in de3elo"ing countries (:iola )**), )**.1, 7ra=il also argued strongl& in the K&oto negotiations that
national shares of carbon emissions should be calculated on the basis of their historical accumulation since the mid-nineteenth centur&, reVecting carbon dio/ides "ersistence in the atmos"here (Roberts and Par5 )**(, ", 0.+1, In 0??(, 7ra=il suggested

a Tnancial mechanism that #ould "ro3ide com"ensation for de3elo"ing countries that 3oluntaril& undertoo5 G@G mitigation , 2s these "ositions suggest, 7ra=ilians #ere not climate ^deniers, but belie3ed that de3elo"ed countries bore the res"onsibilit& for binding international obligations to address climate change (4ahsen )**.1, %he G(( su""orted this "osition (Dilliams )**I1, Dhile 2nne/
0 countries reFected rationales of historic res"onsibilit&, 7ra=il #or5ed closel& #ith the 9nited !tates to de3elo" #hat became the Clean Ce3elo"ment Mechanism (CCM1 in the K&oto Protocol (Friberg )**?, ", E?X1, 2lread& in the 0??*s, ^7a"tists argued for "rinci"led reasons that 7ra=il should ado"t a stronger and more acti3e "osition in fa3our of national climate action, En3ironmental non-go3ernmental organisations (NG>s1 often agreed that de3elo"ed countries had a s"ecial historical res"onsibilit& for climate change, but the& still thought their national re"resentati3es dre# too much on ^mindsets characteri=ed b& =ero-sum thin5ing and national economic interests (4ahsen )**., "", 0IIW0I(1, En3ironmentalists had man& allies in the Ministr& of En3ironment (@ochstetler and Kec5 )**(1, but it did not "la& a maFor role in international negotiations at this time, In Cardosos second administration, 7ra=il su""orted the Tnal stages of negotiation of the K&oto Protocol #ith its di3ision bet#een the res"onsibilities of de3elo"ed and de3elo"ing states, es"eciall& after the 9nited !tates #ithdre# from the Protocol in )**0, 7ra=il hel"ed "ull together the alliance bet#een the Euro"ean 9nion, 'a"an, and emerging countries that made the Tnal agreements "ossible, 2fter the "ush to a""ro3e the K&oto "rotocol, climate "olitics again too5 a bac5 seat in 7ra=il, #ith ne# "resident 4ula da !il3as administration after )**E sho#ing the familiar di3isions and s"oradic attention to climate change of his "redecessor, %he

"olitical debate focused on economic gro#th at home and reassertion of 7ra=ils claims to so3ereignt& and global leadershi" abroad, es"eciall& in the !outh (7urges )**?1, 'ust a fe# &ears later,
ho#e3er, the domestic de3elo"ments that broadened the coalition in fa3our of climate action began to unfold, %he domestic "olitics of im"ro3ing deforestation control 7et#een )**I and )*00, 7ra=il bro5e #ith its historic trends b&

dramaticall& lo#ering 2ma=onian deforestation from an annual a3erage of almost

)0,*** 5m) in )***W)**. to (*** 5m) in )**?, %his reduced its total G@G emissions b& about E*_ (7ra=il )*0*b1, 2nnual deforestation rates ha3e al#a&s 3aried in 7ra=il, #ith some rough correlation #ith national economic gro#th (see Figure 01, Dhat is unusual about the recent dro" in deforestation is that it coincided #ith a sustained "eriod of strong economic gro#th that included a

commodit& e/"ort boom, Ceforestation is still high, but the Tgures suggest that 7ra=il might be gaining le3erage on one of its most "ersistent en3ironmental "roblems (Ne"stad et al, )**?, Macedo et al, )*0)1,

2 number of gradual changes ha3e enhanced the legal architecture in the 2ma=on (still far from com"lete1, in e ect trading clearer o#nershi" of land and forests for greater "ublic o3ersight of the use made of them, 2 legal modiTcation in 0??+ began the "rocess b& reforming the Forest Code to raise the reBuired set-aside forest areas from I* to X*_ of indi3idual 2ma=onian "lots, 7et#een )*** and )**+, signiTcant areas #ere transferred to "rotected status, totalling I0_ of remaining 2ma=on forest area (Ne"stad et al, )**?, ", 0EI*1, 2mendments to the National Forest Code in )**+ also allo#ed forests in federal "ublic lands to be transferred to "ri3ate agents for sustainable management and commercial useN the amendments established a Forest !er3ice, 2 Federal E/ecuti3e >rder in )**? (.IX-)**?1 issued land titles in the 2ma=on, legalising to di erent degrees "ast land a""ro"riations and deforestation, %he en3ironmental mo3ement hea3il& resisted the decree, but other anal&sts argue that the ne# la# could create "ri3ate "ro"ert& obligations as #ell as rights for a 3ast coalition of legal lando#ners, Further Forest Code re3isions de3elo"ing in )*0) #ould #ea5en sustainable forest management, e,g, b& allo#ing deforestation along ri3ers, but are unli5el& to re3erse the gains in controlling large scale deforestation, %he large and "o#erful agricultural coalition in Congress "assed the bill o3er President Cilma Rousse s obFections in an 2"ril 3ote, 7ra=il has long had trouble im"lementing conser3ation in its "rotected areas (@ochstetler and Kec5 )**(, ", )1, but stronger institutional ca"acit& and more e ecti3e la# enforcement since )**E ha3e im"ro3ed outcomes, %hese changes #ere de3elo"ed during Marina !il3as tenure as Minister of En3ironment ()**EW)**X1 and dee"ened under her successors, !il3a, #ho gre# u" as a rubber ta""er in the 2ma=on region, began the "rocess of slo#l& dra#ing 2ma=onian state authorities into coo"eration #ith the federal go3ernment, !he reBuired states to de3elo" "lans to reduce deforestation and the federal go3ernment did real-time monitoring of the results, Raids resulted in Fail terms for some federal and state agenc& em"lo&ees (Macedo et al, )*0), ", .1, Go3ernmental e orts

#ere su""orted b& national and international NG>s, #ho raised "ublic a#areness and hel"ed "ressure the beef and so& industries to 5ee" 2ma=on deforesters out of their su""l& chains (Ne"stad et al, )**?, ", 0EI*, Macedo et al, )*0)1, >ther com"onents of recent forest "olic& aim to "ro3ide "ositi3e incenti3es for conser3ation, In )**(, a "ilot "rogramme called the ^Forest Protection Pa&ment transferred a small amount of cash to local residents for their contribution to maintaining the integrit& of forests, In )**X, President 4ula established the 2ma=onian Fund b& e/ecuti3e order, #ith the e/"ress "ur"ose of ca"turing donations designated for "re3ention, monitoring, and combat of deforestation, %he Fund is administered b& the 7ra=ilian National Ce3elo"ment 7an5 (7NCE!1, #hich has alread& a""ro3ed funding for "roFects totalling some [0)* million, In )**?, 7NCE! announced the most im"ortant donation agreements to date, #ith Nor#a&s Foreign 2 airs Ministr& "romising as much as [ 0 billion if "rogress containing deforestation is maintained (Ne"stad et al, )**?1, E3ol3ing forest related negotiation "ositions 2s long as 7ra=ilian deforestation #as high, the 7ra=ilian Foreign Ministr& resisted e/tending the CCM to carbon sin5s and forests, In doing so, it allied #ith the Euro"ean 9nion against other forest countries, bloc5ing an im"ortant "otential line of de3elo"ment of the international agreements, Ces"ite ha3ing some of the most im"ortant biodi3ersit& and carbon stoc5s in forest in the #orld, 7ra=ilian negotiators #orried that ma5ing them "art of global agreements #ould e3entuall& o"en 7ra=il to international liabilit& for the high rates of deforestation in the 2ma=on that the 7ra=ilian go3ernment e3identl& could not control, %his "osition #as strongl& su""orted b& rural agricultural and timber elites, dominant in state-le3el "olitics in the 2ma=on and #ith a strong bloc in the National Congress (:iola )**.1, %he ^7a"tists of the Ministr& of En3ironment, the go3ernments of some 2ma=onian states, and NG>s all argued against 7ra=ils o""osition to e/tending the CCM to forests, but the& lost until recentl& (:iola and Franchini )*0)1, 2s deforestation rates started dro""ing shar"l& in )**I, 7ra=il almost immediatel& changed its international negotiating "ro"osals, 7ra=il de3iated from its historic "osition to "ro"ose the creation of a global fund for forest conser3ation alread& at the 0)th Conference of the Parties of the 9NFCCC inNairobi in Cecember )**+, 2ccording to the 7ra=ilian "ro"osal, 2nne/ 0 countries and cor"orations #ould contribute to a fund that #ould distribute Tnancial resources according to the "erformance of countries in 3oluntaril& reducing deforestation rates, %his #as the Trst time that 7ra=il acce"ted lin5ing deforestation rates to global Tnancial tools, Ces"ite this "ro"osal, 7ra=ilian negotiators retained their traditional obFection to carbon mar5ets for forests until )**?, Interest calculations subseBuentl& brought the Trst ^bootlegger into the climate action coalition, Dhen the K&oto Protocol #as acti3ated in Februar& )**I, 7ra=il had the Trst CCM "roFect registered (Friberg )**?, ", .*.1, %he CCM "roFects "romised ne# in3estment Vo#s and "ossibl& ne# technologies, Get 7ra=ils carbon "roTle meant that it had com"arati3el& fe# CCM in3estment o""ortunities, and China and India gained much larger shares, %his outcome #as es"eciall& galling to go3ernors and ma&ors in the 2ma=onian states, #hich lag far behind the modern "arts of the countr& in #ealth and in3estment, %he& Foined en3ironmental NG>s in strongl& criticising their go3ernments for bloc5ing a similar global mechanism that #ould bring them in3estments for forest conser3ation, es"eciall& after the& had begun to reduce deforestation, %he 2ma=onian go3ernors created a coalition in )**? to acti3el& "ush for a change of go3ernment strateg& (Ne"stad et al, )**?1, Follo#ing these de3elo"ments, the Ministr& of the En3ironment Tnall& o3ercame the entrenched o""osition among the Foreign Ministr&s di"lomats and acti3el& contributed to the de3elo"ment of a ne# forest instrument (RECCt, Reducing Emissions from Ceforestation and Forest Cegradation1 in Co"enhagen, Climate action as good business 2nother ^bootlegger all& emerged follo#ing 7arac5 >bamas election in the 9nited !tates in )**X, 7ra=ilian reformist forces #ere alread& tr&ing to con3ince the federal authorities to assume a leadershi" role in the global climate negotiations, #hich the& no# e/"ected to mo3e for#ard ra"idl&, %he 9! @ouse of Re"resentati3es in fact "assed the Da/man-Mar5e& Climate 7ill in 'une of )**?, It created the 9nited !tates Trst legal frame#or5 for national climate action and included a border ta/ adFustment for "roducts coming from countries that did not ha3e similar emissions controls (]hang )*0*1, %he bill died in the !enate, but the e3ident sha"e of e3entual 9! action gal3anised a "roacti3e res"onse from 7ra=ilian industr&, %hree cor"orate coalitions launched documents in !e"tember )**? as5ing the go3ernment to modif& 7ra=ils climate stances both domesticall& and internationall& (:iola )*0*1, Most of the Trms in3ol3ed in the coalitions #ere e/"orters to de3elo"ed mar5ets and belie3ed that the 9! la# #ould "ass the !enate and Buic5l& be follo#ed b& similar legislation in all de3elo"ed countries, %he Trms belie3ed that, since 7ra=il had alread& reduced deforestation and carbon emissions and e/"orting Trms #ere mostl& in lo# carbon sectors, 7ra=il should ado"t a ne# res"onsible climate "olic&, %he& ho"ed the countr& #ould thus a3oid the border ta/ adFustments and e3en gain a com"etiti3e ad3antage o3er China, India, and other higher carbon emerging economies, %he Trst coalition W ^>"en letter to 7ra=il about climate change W included )) large national cor"orations from middle to high carbon intensi3e sectors, It #as led b& 7ra=ilian multinational :ale, the second largest iron ore "roducer in the #orld, %his coalition demanded a clear 7ra=ilian commitment, including a stee"er decline in deforestation and a reduction in the gro#th cur3e of emissions from energ& and cattle raising, %he second coalition W ^2lliance of Cor"orations in Fa3or of the Climate W #as formed b& agribusiness cor"orations, and made onl& 3ague "ro"osals, #ith some em"hasis on deforestation control, %his #as the least reform-oriented coalition because it is e/tremel& heterogeneous, ranging from climate friendl& ethanol "roducers to climate conser3ati3e meat"ac5ing Trms, National and transnational cor"orations that ha3e a long-term climate 3ision formed the third coalition, led b& utilities and energ& cor"orations, %his coalition W ^%he Coalition of Cor"orations for Climate W "ro"osed more ambitious goals than the others, including setting a "ea5 date for 7ra=ilian emissions bet#een )*0I and )*)* and mandator&

Public o"inion and electoral "olitics Public su""ort for climate action is high in 7ra=il, "ro3iding another reason for "oliticians to ta5e action, 7ra=ilians ha3e had the highest le3els of concern about global en3ironmental "roblems in a set of di3erse countries sur3e&ed regularl& through
emissions reductions (:iola and Franchini )*0)1,

the )***s b& Globescan Radar,E %heir concern accelerated across the decade, #ith ?)_ of res"ondents sa&ing in )*0* that the& belie3ed global en3ironmental "roblems #ere 3er& serious, %he local media contributed to their concern, %he ^Globo

Net#or5, one of the #orlds largest media conglomerates, is "articularl& concerned about climate change issues, %his is an anomal& in the 4atin 2merican "ublic s"here, !ince it has around X*_ of the non-cable audience and an e3en larger share in cable tele3ision, its e ect on "ublic o"inion is high and "ro"onents of climate action garner a large audience for their "ro"osals,

9&na#ay #arming ca&ses e@tinction Dei!el >, Professor of IR ` National Dar College (%err& 4,, )**(l LForeign 2ffairs !trateg&J
4ogic for 2merican !tatecraftM, ConclusionJ 2merican Foreign 2ffairs !trateg& %oda&1
Finall&, there is one maFor e/istential threat to 2merican securit& (as #ell as "ros"erit&1 of a non3iolent nature, #hich, though far in the future, demands urgent action, It is the threat of global #arming to the stabilit& of the climate u"on

#hich all earthl& life de"ends, !cientists #orld#ide ha3e been obser3ing the gathering of this threat for three decades

no#, and #hat #as once a mere "ossibilit& has "assed through "robabilit& to near certaint&, Indeed not one of more than ?** articles on climate change "ublished in refereed scientific Fournals from 0??E to )**E doubted that anthro"ogenic #arming

is occurring, LIn legitimate scientific circles,M #rites Eli=abeth Kolbert, Lit is 3irtuall& im"ossible to find e3idence of disagreement o3er the fundamentals of global #arming,M E3idence from a 3ast international scientific monitoring effort

accumulates almost #ee5l&, as this sam"le of ne#s"a"er re"orts sho#sJ an international "anel "redicts Lbrutal droughts, floods and 3iolent storms across the "lanet o3er the ne/t centur&MN climate change could Lliterall& alter ocean currents, #i"e a#a& huge "ortions of 2l"ine !no#ca"s and aid the s"read of cholera and malariaMN Lglaciers in the 2ntarctic and in Greenland are melting much faster than e/"ected, andc#orld#ide, "lants are blooming se3eral da&s earlier than a decade agoMN Lrising sea tem"eratures ha3e been accom"anied b& a significant global increase in the most destructi3e hurricanesMN LN2!2 scientists ha3e concluded from direct tem"erature measurements that )**I #as the hottest &ear on record, #ith 0??X a close secondMN L Earths #arming climate

is estimated to contribute to more than 0I*,*** deaths and I million illnesses each &ear M as disease
s"readsN L#ides"read bleaching from %e/as to %rinidadc5illed broad s#aths of coralsM due to a )-degree rise in sea tem"eratures, L%he #orld is slo#l& disintegrating,M concluded Inuit hunter Noah MetuB, #ho li3es E* miles from the 2rctic Circle, L%he& call it climate changecbut #e Fust call it brea5ing u",M From the founding of the first cities some +,*** &ears ago until the beginning of the

industrial re3olution, carbon dio/ide le3els in the atmos"here remained relati3el& constant at about )X* "arts "er million (""m1, 2t "resent the& are accelerating to#ard .** ""m, and b& )*I* the& #ill reach I** ""m, about double "re-industrial le3els, 9nfortunatel&, atmos"heric C>) lasts about a centur&, so there is no #a& immediatel& to reduce le3els, onl& to slo# their increase, #e are thus in for significant global #armingN the onl& debate is ho# much and ho# serous the effects #ill be, 2s the ne#s"a"er stories Buoted abo3e sho#, #e are alread& e/"eriencing the effects of 0-) degree #arming in more

3iolent storms, s"read of disease, mass die offs of "lants and animals, s"ecies e/tinction , and
threatened inundation of lo#-l&ing countries li5e the Pacific nation of Kiribati and the Netherlands at a #arming of I degrees or less the Greenland and Dest 2ntarctic ice sheets could disintegrate, leading to a sea le3el of rise of )* feet that #ould co3er North Carolinas outer ban5s, s#am" the southern third of Florida, and inundate Manhattan u" to the middle of Green#ich :illage,

2nother catastro"hic effect #ould be the colla"se of the 2tlantic thermohaline circulation that 5ee"s the #inter #eather in Euro"e far #armer than its latitude #ould other#ise allo#, Economist Dilliam Cline once estimated the damage to the 9nited !tates alone from moderate le3els of #arming at 0-+ "ercent of GCP annuall& N se3ere #arming could cost 0E-)+ "ercent of GCP, 7ut the most frightening scenario is runa#a& greenhouse #arming, based on "ositi3e feedbac5 from the buildu" of #ater

3a"or in the atmos"here that is both caused b& and causes hotter surface tem"eratures, Past ice age transitions, associated #ith onl& I-0* degree changes in a3erage global tem"eratures, too5 "lace in Fust decades, e3en though no one #as then "ouring e3erincreasing amounts of carbon into the atmos"here, Faced #ith this s"ecter, the best one can conclude is that Lhuman5inds continuing enhancement of the natural greenhouse effect is a5in to "la&ing Russian roulette #ith the earths climate and humanit&s life su""ort s&stem, 2t #orst, sa&s "h&sics "rofessor Mart& @offert of Ne# Gor5 9ni3ersit&, L#ere Fust going to burn e3er&thing u"N #ere going to heat the atmos"here to the tem"erature it #as in the Cretaceous #hen there #ere crocodiles at the "oles, and then e3er&thing #ill colla"se,M Curing the Cold Dar, astronomer Carl !agan "o"ulari=ed a theor& of nuclear #inter to describe ho# a thermonuclear #ar bet#een the 9ntied !tates and the !o3iet 9nion #ould not onl& destro& both countries but "ossibl& end life on this "lanet, Global #arming is the "ost-Cold Dar eras eBui3alent of nuclear #inter at least as

serious and considerabl& better su""orted scientificall& , >3er the long run it "uts dangers form terrorism and traditional militar& challenges to shame, It is a threat not onl& to the securit& and "ros"erit& to the 9nited !tates, but "otentiall& to the continued e@istence of life on t is planet2

Bra6il DA A+F Hegemony +&rn

Bra6ilian lea'ers ip 'oesnCt .ill *( egemony %alam&'/ 11 research fello# at the Institute of !ocial !ciences (IC!1 of the 9ni3ersit& of 4isbon, PhC in Political !cience from the Euro"ean 9ni3ersit& Institute (E9I1 in Florence, (2ndres, L2 4eader Dithout Follo#ers6 %he Gro#ing Ci3ergence 7et#een the Regional and Global Performance of 7ra=ilian Foreign Polic&,M 42%IN 2MERIC2N P>4I%IC! 2NC !>CIE%G, u )*00 9ni3ersit& of Miami, M242M9CJ 7R2]I4! F>REIGN P>4ICG, htt"J--americo,usal,es-iberoame-sites-default-files-malamudQbrasilQleaderQ#ithoutQfollo#er s,"df1--@24 %o be sure, 7ra=il has not become indifferent to the region, @o#e3er, its ambitions are increasingl& defensi3e rather than offensi3e, %he main goal is no longer to integrate !outh 2merica into a regional bloc #ith a single 3oice but to limit damages that could s"ill o3er its borders or stain its international image as regional "acifier, No#, it seems sufficient to stabili=e the region and "re3ent "olitical instabilit&, economic turmoil, and border conflicts, %he name of the game is to 5ee" Buiet rather than lead the neighborhood, since "re3enting trouble in its bac5&ard seems to be a necessar& condition for 7ra=il to consolidate its global gains, Gi3en that 7ra=il is not a re3isionist "o#er that intends to u"set the s&stem but rather a reformist one that #ishes to enter it, damage control has become its central tas5, %his has turned a
#ould-be leader into a fireman or, as Carlos guenan once "ara"hrased from economics Fargon, a leader of last resort, %hus, as %he Economist ()**Xb1 a"tl& remar5ed, Lit ma& be the rising "o#er in the 2mericas but 7ra=il is finding that di"lomatic ambition can "rom"t resentment,M 7& tr&ing to mitigate this resentment, the countr& ma& find itself closer to the categor& of a traditional rather than an emerging middle "o#er, In other #ords, it can as"ire to a leading role on the global stage as long as it goes it alone,

Bra6il .ey to m&ltipolarity

Bo'man an' Wolfenso n/ 11 - 9,!, secretar& of energ& from )**I to )**?, a 7! from

Cornell 9ni3ersit& and a PhC from MI%, #here he #as also associate "rofessor of chemical engineering, 'ames C, Dolfensohn is chairman of Dolfensohn P Com"an&, 44C, chairman of Citigrou"s international ad3isor& board, and ad3iser to Citigrou"s senior management on global strateg& and on international matters, @e is a honorar& trustee of the 7roo5ings Institution, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, Master of 7usiness 2dministration (M721 degree at @ar3ard 7usiness !chool, (LGlobal 7ra=il and 9,!,-7ra=il Relations,M Inde"endent %as5 Force Re"ort No, ++, Council on Foreign Relations, 'ul& 0)th, )*00, htt"J--###,cfr,org-bra=il-global-bra=il-us-bra=il-relations-")I.*(1--@24 7ra=il is and #ill remain an integral force in the e3olution of a multi"olar #orld , It ran5s as the #orlds
fifth-largest landmass, fifth-largest "o"ulation, and eighth-largest econom&, 7ra=il, #hich ma& become the #orlds fifth-largest econom& b& )*0+, is the 7 in the 7RICs (along #ith Russia, India, and Chinab1, a grou"ing of gro#th mar5ets that accounted

for )E "ercent of global gross domestic "roduct (GCP1 in )*0* and #ill collecti3el& reach [)I trillion to o3erta5e the 9,!, econom& #ithin the ne/t decade, 7ra=ils economic "ro#ess "laces it in a leadershi" "osition in 4atin 2merica and in the #orld and boosts the regions strategic im"ortance globall&, es"eciall& for the 9nited !tates,

Bra6il DA A+F 9elations +&rn

9elations resilient WWIC(/ > (%he Doodro# Dilson International Center for !cholars, 0-).-*(, L%he Future of 9,!,-7ra=ilian RelationsM, htt"J--###,#ilsoncenter,org-inde/,cfm6 to"icQidO0.0?PfuseactionOto"ics,e3entQsummar&Pe3entQidO)0E?X?1 Not a single action ta5en or decision made b& the 9nited !tates in the last three &ears has negati3el& affected 7ra=ilian interests, claimed 2mbassador Roberto 2bdenur, before a "ac5ed
conference room in #hat #as his last "ublic a""earance as 7ra=ils ambassador in Dashington, Dhen he too5 the "osition in )**., 7ra=ilian indignation #ith IraB and o3er onerous 3isa "rocedures and "oor treatment of 3isiting nationals had caused a tem"orar& strain in the relationshi", >ther "otential obstacles to strengthening the relationshi" that #ere

successfull& a3oided include "ossible trade sanctions against 7ra=il o3er intellectual "irac&, 7ra=ils refusal to e/em"t 9,!, troo"s and officials from the Furisdiction of the International Criminal Court, mutual charges of dum"ing, and 9,!, threat to remo3es its General !&stem of Preferences for 7ra=il(#hich #ould ha3e negati3el& affected a""ro/imatel& four billion dollars of 7ra=ilian e/"orts to the 9nited !tates1, Ces"ite these challenges, 2bdenur argued that the bilateral relationshi" has reached an un"recedented le3el of mutual understanding and deference to the other countr&s "ositions and o"inions, facilitated in no small "art b& President 4ulas "ragmatism, Ces"ite the e/istence of differences, 7ra=il-9,!, relations are on a "roducti3e "latform to foster "ositi3e de3elo"ments in the future, 4ula has "ut aside his misgi3ings about some 9,!, "olicies and embraced the fact that it is in 7ra=ils best interests to foster strong relations #ith the 9nited !tates, argued
2bdenur, Much to the disdain of 7ra=il, the 9nited !tates has mista5enl& #ithdra#n from certain international discussions and scenarios and erroneousl& engaged in others, such as climate change and the Middle East, 2dditionall&, 4atin 2merica is o3erloo5ed b& its Northern neighbor, @o#e3er, if and #hen the 9nited !tates decides to refocus its energies u"on the region, 2bdenur is assured that 7ra=il #ould be its natural all& in such an endea3or, 7ra=il has good relations #ith all of its neighbors and strategicall& occu"ies a moderate s"ace bet#een the regions di3ergent interests and traFectories, as illustrated b& its leading role in the current international efforts to stabili=e @aiti and b& its contribution to the resolution of the conflict bet#een Peru and Ecuador in the 0??*s Hin both cases in close coo"eration #ith the 9nited !tates, 2bdenur argued that the 9nited !tates is not the onl& actor that must ta5e decisi3e ste"s to#ards a con3ergence of interests bet#een the t#o countriesJ 7ra=il must sto" fearing the 9nited !tates and instead embrace it as a "artner,

Democracy DA 1NC
*2(2 lea'ers ip o"er Latin America necessitates t e promotion of 'emocracy %at eny/ 14 (2dam, LDilson Center @osts Ciscussion on Cemocrac& in 4atin 2merica,M Council for a Communit& of Cemocracies, E-)(-0E, htt"J--###,ccd)0,org-ne#s-americas-latinQamericaQdemocrati=ation,html, %ashma1 In order to e/"lain these trends, Main#arings team "erformed e/tensi3e Buantitati3e anal&ses, #hich focused on the main actors in3ol3ed, such as "oliticians, militaries, international organi=ations and the 9nited !tates, %he results "ro3ide a no3el and often counterintuiti3e e/"lanation for regime change and the Bualit& of democrac& in 4atin 2merica, 2ccording to Main#aring, the main dri3ers behind democratic regime change in 4atin 2merica are not the economic factors highlighted b& moderni=ation theor&,
such as GCP or income ineBualit&, Instead, Main#aring argues that the main e/"lanations for democrati=ing regime change are the normati3e "references of the actors in3ol3ed and the regional "olitical en3ironment, If a states 5e& actors W ranging from ci3il societ& to the militar& W belie3ed that democrac& #as the best form of go3ernment, the shift from authoritarianism to democrac& #as much more li5el&, Main#arings findings also stress the im"ortance of neighboring

democracies, %he "resence of democracies in the immediate en3ironment #as found to be a main factor in democrati=ation, #hich offers an e/"lanation to the #a3es of regime change in the region, Main#arings findings suggest that these t#o factors ha3e "la&ed a large "art in democratic brea5do#ns as #ell, 4i5e democrati=ation, the normati3e "references of 5e& actors and the regime t&"e of neighboring countries "la&ed an im"ortant "art in the often 3iolent transitions from democrac& to authoritarianism that "lagued 4atin 2merica throughout much of the )*th centur&, In the case of authoritarian regime change, Main#aring
also added t#o more im"ortant factorsJ the degree of radicalism and 9! foreign "olic&, 2 high degree of radicalism, from both the left and from the right, often "receded democratic brea5do#ns in the region, Moreo3er, *( infl&ence #as so great

in Latin America t at *( s&pport for, or e3en orchestration of, militar& cou"s consistently le' to authoritarian regime c ange2 + at !ac.fires an' ca&ses a s ift a#ay from 'emocracy Carot ers/ $ (%homas, 3ice "resident for studies at the Carnegie Endo#ment for International Peace, #here he founded and currentl& directs the Cemocrac& and Rule of 4a# Program, former "roferssor at Central Euro"ean 9ni3ersit&, the 'ohns @o"5ins !chool of 2d3anced International !tudies, and Nuffield College, and >/ford, L%he 7ac5lash 2gainst Cemocrac& Promotion,M Foreign 2ffairs, :olume XI, Issue ), March-2"ril )**+, "g, II-+X, %ashma1 %he la# is also a sign of an eBuall& disturbing and much broader trend, 2fter t#o decades of the stead& e/"ansion of democrac&-building "rograms around the #orld, a gro#ing number of go3ernments are starting to crac5 do#n on such acti3ities #ithin their borders, !trongmen -- some of them elected officials -- ha3e begun to "ublicl& denounce Destern democrac& assistance as illegitimate "olitical meddling, %he&
ha3e started e/"elling or harassing Destern NG>s and "rohibiting local grou"s from ta5ing foreign funds -- or ha3e started "unishing them for doing so, %his gro#ing bac5lash has &et to coalesce into a formal or organi=ed mo3ement, 7ut its "ro"onents are clearl& learning from and feeding off of one another, %he recent $color re3olutions$ in Georgia, 95raine, and K&rg&=stan and the #ides"read sus"icion that 9,!, grou"s such as the National Cemocratic Institute (NCI1, the International Re"ublican Institute (IRI1, Freedom @ouse, and the >"en !ociet& Institute "la&ed a 5e& behind-the-scenes role in fomenting these u"hea3als ha3e clearl& hel"ed trigger the bac5lash, Politicians from China to ]imbab#e ha3e "ublicl& cited concerns about such e3ents s"reading to their o#n shores as Fustification for ne# restrictions on Destern aid to NG>s and o""osition grou"s, Get there is something broader at #or5 than Fust a fear of orange (95raine8s re3olution came to be 5no#n as the >range Re3olution1, %he #a& that President George D, 7ush is ma5ing democrac& "romotion a central theme of his foreign "olic& has clearl& contributed to the unease such efforts (and the idea of democrac& "romotion itself1 are creating around the #orld, !ome autocratic go3ernments ha3e #on substantial "ublic s&m"ath& b& arguing that o""osition to Destern democrac& "romotion is resistance not to

democrac& itself, but to 2merican inter3entionism, Moreo3er, the damage that the 7ush administration has done to the global image of the 9nited !tates as a s&mbol of democrac& and human rights b& re"eatedl& 3iolating the rule of la# at home and abroad has further #ea5ened the legitimac& of the democrac&-"romotion cause, 'ust as the sources of the bac5lash ha3e been multila&ered, so too must be the res"onse, %o remain as effecti3e in the ne/t
decade as the& ha3e been in the last, grou"s that "romote democrac& must come to gri"s #ith ho# the international conte/t for their #or5 has changed, %his #ill mean rethin5ing some of their methods, %he 7ush administration, mean#hile, must also face some un"leasant realities, s"ecificall& about ho# the "resident8s $freedom agenda$ is "ercei3ed around the #orld, and must engage

seriousl& an effort to build credibilit& for its democrac& endea3or, '9!% !2GING N> %he most s&stematic and forceful resistance to Destern democrac& aid has come from Russia under Putin, %he NG> la# is Fust one of a series of recent actions Mosco# has ta5en to constrain or challenge democrac&-"romotion grou"s, %he Kremlin has also attac5ed the >rgani=ation for !ecurit& and Coo"eration in Euro"e (>!CE1 for its election-monitoring #or5 in Russia and neighboring countries, !e3eral 9,!, democrac&"romotion grou"s ha3e e/"erienced minor but "ointed harassment from Russian authorities, Putin8s go3ernment has critici=ed Russian NG>s #or5ing on human rights or other "oliticall& sensiti3e issues for acce"ting outside funds, and senior Russian officials ha3e denounced e/ternal democrac& aid as sub3ersi3e and anti-Russian, President Putin has also ta5en to #arning fello# autocrats in surrounding countries of the dangers of allo#ing such aid, and Russia has started building its o#n ca"acit& to "ro3ide "arallel forms of assistance, through election monitors and "olitical consultants, Putin8s su""orters ha3e cast his cam"aign against "rodemocrac& grou"s as a securit& im"erati3e, asserting that the 9nited !tates is tr&ing to encircle Russia #ith "ro-Destern go3ernments and sub3ert its "olitical order, Russia is not the onl& countr& "ushing bac5 against Destern democrac& assistanceN the

resistance has become a #ides"read "ost-!o3iet "astime, 9=be5 President Islam Karimo3 is currentl& in the
"rocess of shutting do#n most of the Destern democrac& "rograms in his countr&, as #ell as most of the domestic NG>s that #or5 on democrac& issuesJ in )**I, more than +* "ercent of 9=be5istan8s acti3e NG>s #ere "ut out of business, 2rticles in the statecontrolled media ha3e accused the 9nited !tates of tr&ing to undermine 9=be5 so3ereignt& through the %roFan horse of democrati=ation, Mean#hile, in 7elarus, President 2le5sandr 4u5ashen5o has also forbidden most e/ternal "olitical aid and has relentlessl& stam"ed out "olitical challengers and inde"endent ci3il societ&, 2fter first "utting all foreign funding destined for local NG>s under state control, in )**E, 4u5ashen5o banned foreign funding of an& "olitical or educational acti3ities in the countr&, %he %aFi5 go3ernment announced ne# regulations in 2"ril )**I reBuiring foreign embassies and foreign organi=ations #or5ing in the countr& to gi3e the authorities notice before ma5ing an& contact #ith local "olitical "arties, NG>s, or media organi=ations, Go3ernment-controlled ne#s"a"ers in %aFi5istan ha3e accused the 9nited !tates of criminalit& in its su""ort for 95rainian and K&rg&= acti3ists and ha3e "raised 7elarus for its resistance to Destern interference, Nearb& in Ka=a5hstan, President Nursultan Na=arba&e3 has enacted similarl& tight restrictions on coo"eration bet#een foreign entities and Ka=a5h "olitical "arties, In a s"eech last !e"tember, he added his 3oice to the regional chorus #arning foreign NG>s not to tr& to destabili=e former !o3iet states, %he bac5lash against democrac& aid has also started to s"read outside the former !o3iet 9nion, >ne enthusiastic "artici"ant is China, 4ast 2"ril, an article in the Peo"le8s Cail& condemned the 9nited !tates8 $democratic offensi3e$ in the former !o3iet 9nion and else#here as self-ser3ing, coerci3e, and immoral, %he follo#ing month, the Chinese Communist Part& re"ortedl& ma""ed out a strateg& for resisting 9,!, and Euro"ean efforts to "romote color re3olutions in China and its neighborhood, 7eiFing has dela&ed the "assage of a ne# la# that #ould liberali=e the rules on NG>s in the countr& and has crac5ed do#n on 3arious local grou"s that recei3e foreign funding, including a human rights grou" su""orted b& the National Endo#ment for Cemocrac& (NEC1, a "ri3ate foundation funded b& the 9,!, go3ernment de3oted to su""orting democrac& #orld#ide, 7eiFing is also tightening restrictions on foreign media b& ste""ing u" measures to scramble e/ternal radio broadcasts and re3ersing an earlier decision to allo# the local "ublication of foreign ne#s"a"ers, Else#here in 2sia, go3ernments ha3e enacted similar restrictionsJ in Ne"al, for e/am"le, after 0I &ears of relati3e o"enness to Destern democrac& "rograms, the go3ernment recentl& issued ne# regulations shar"l& restricting such acti3ities, %he bac5lash is s"reading to 2frica as #ell, ]imbab#ean President Robert Mugabe has dri3en out Destern NG>s and forced the closure of man& local grou"s that get e/ternal su""ort, claiming that the& are fronts through #hich Destern $colonial masters$ sub3ert the go3ernment, In Cecember )**., ]imbab#e8s "arliament "assed legislation "rohibiting local NG>s from recei3ing an& outside aid, Mugabe has not &et signed the bill but has 5e"t u" his rhetorical attac5s on alleged Destern meddling, Further north, Ethio"ia e/"elled the IRI, the NCI, and IFE! (formerl& the International Foundation for Election !&stems1 "rior to national elections last Ma&, Prime Minister Meles ]ena#i stated on Ethio"ian tele3ision that $there is not going to be a 8Rose Re3olution8 or a 8Green Re3olution8 or an& color re3olution in Ethio"ia after the election,$ 2nd in Eritrea, the go3ernment enacted a ne# la# last &ear forbidding local NG>s from engaging in an& #or5 other than relief acti3ities and bloc5ing them from recei3ing e/ternal su""ort, In 2ugust, 2smara as5ed the 9,!, 2genc& for International Ce3elo"ment to cease o"erations in the countr&, stating that it #as uncomfortable #ith the agenc&8s acti3ities, #hich include "romoting citi=en "artici"ation in economic and "olitical life, In !outh 2merica, :ene=uelan President @ugo Cha3e= regularl& blasts 9,!, democrac& "romotion as

being "art of a 7ush administration cam"aign to oust him, Cha3e= has accused grou"s such as the NEC and the IRI of su""orting the :ene=uelan o""osition and has intimidated man& local NG>s that recei3e outside funding, 2nd li5e Putin, Cha3e= is not content Fust to bloc5 9,!, aid at home, @e has allegedl& used his "etrodollars to su""ort anti-2merican "arties and candidates in 7oli3ia, Ecuador, Peru, and else#here, in the ho"e of s"reading #hat he calls his $7oli3arian Re3olution,$ 2lthough Cha3e= remains an e/treme case, #ariness of *2(2 'emocracy promotion is rising in t e region, #hich is rife #ith anti-2mericanism and increasingl& dominated b& left-leaning go3ernments, %he reFection last &ear b& the >rgani=ation of 2merican !tates of a 9,!, "ro"osal to establish a ne# regional mechanism to monitor go3ernmental com"liance #ith democratic norms reflected this gro#ing s5e"ticism, !EEING >R2NGE Dhat e/actl& e/"lains this global bac5lash against
democrac& "romotion6 %he recent re3olutions in Georgia, 95raine, and K&rg&=stan #ere clearl& im"ortant e3ents, %he dramatic u"hea3als in these countries sho#ed #hat huge numbers of ordinar& citi=ens can do #hen the& rall& bra3el& for democrac&, 7ut as accounts multi"lied of 9,!, su""ort for 5e& ci3ic and "olitical grou"s in these countries, the color re3olutions also s"read the idea that the 9nited !tates #as the shado#& guiding force behind these e3ents, 2lthough fear of democrac& aid as a tool of the 9nited !tates ma& ha3e s"i5ed #ith the color re3olutions, it is best understood as the culmination of a longer trend, Dhen democrac& "romotion first flourished, during the ra"id democratic e/"ansion of the late 0?X*s and earl& 0??*s, acti3ists usuall& had to #or5 in one of t#o conte/tsJ in authoritarian societies, #here the door to democrac& "romotion remained firml& shut, or in ne#l& democrati=ing countries, #here the door to such acti3ities #as generall& #ide o"en, 2s time "assed, man& of the ne#l& democrati=ing countries e3ol3ed into another, intermediate t&"eJ the semiauthoritarian state, #hich "roliferated in the former !o3iet 9nion, the 7al5ans, sub-!aharan 2frica, and the Middle East, !uch regimes t&"icall& attem"t an artful "olitical balancing act, %heir leaders allo# enough "olitical freedoms to gain themsel3es some credit and legitimac& as reformers, %&"icall&, this means holding regular elections and "ermitting the creation of a fe# o""osition "arties, a scattering of inde"endent ci3ic grou"s, and an

inde"endent ne#s"a"er or t#o, 7ut these regimes also maintain a strong enough hold on the le3ers of "o#er to ensure that no serious threats to their rule emerge, 2t first, man& "ro-democrac& organi=ations found themsel3es st&mied b& such semiauthoritarian arrangements, >3er time, ho#e3er, the more e/"erienced grou"s (such as the NCI, the IRI, IFE!, and Freedom @ouse1 settled on a more effecti3e a""roach, Cra#ing on lessons some of these grou"s had learned during earlier successes, such as their su""ort for the o""osition to General 2ugusto Pinochet in the Chilean "lebiscite of 0?XX and for the o""osition to !andinista rule in the Nicaraguan elections of 0??*, the a""roach consisted of "ro3iding technical and financial aid to a broad range of local ci3ic and "olitical grou"s #or5ing together to challenge the go3ernment through elections, %he aid focused on im"ro3ing local ca"acit& in se3eral, mutuall& reinforcing #a&s, First, Destern grou"s hel"ed locals gain the abilit& to do inde"endent election monitoring, including the ca"acit& to hold "arallel 3ote counts, in order to ensure that citi=ens could at least learn the real results of elections, !econd, the& "ro3ided bac5ing to inde"endent ci3ic grou"s, often including d&namic ne# student organi=ations, that could foster broad ci3ic engagement in the electoral "rocess, %hird, the& trained and sometimes "ro3ided eBui"ment or other material assistance to o""osition "arties to hel" them cam"aign effecti3el&, 2nd the& encouraged these "arties to #or5 together and build broad coalitions, 2t the end of the 0??*s, this a""roach #as brought to bear -- first, in an incom"lete form, against Prime Minister :ladimir Meciar of !lo3a5ia and President FranFo %udFman of Croatia, and then, more full&, against President !lobodan Milose3ic of !erbia, 9,!, and Euro"ean "ro-democrac& grou"s mounted a #ell-coordinated and #ell-funded (to the tune of [+* million to [0** million1 aid cam"aign to hel" !erbian ci3ic and "olitical grou"s mount an electoral challenge to Milose3ic, #ho #as alread& under "ressure from Destern economic sanctions and "uniti3e di"lomatic measures, 2s the )*** elections unfolded, all the "ieces fell into "laceJ #ith Destern hel", !erbian ci3ic grou"s con3inced large numbers of ordinar& citi=ens to bet on change and engage in the electoral "rocessN the o""osition "arties "erformed better than the& had in the "astN and inde"endent monitoring efforts laid bare Milose3ic8s effort to o3erride the results, %he outcome #as the autocrat8s ouster in a largel& "eaceful $electoral re3olution,$ !ince then, Destern grou"s ha3e a""lied similar strategies -- although ne3er as am"l& funded or as strongl& bac5ed b& di"lomatic "ressure -- in 2=erbaiFan, 7elarus, Georgia, K&rg&=stan, and 95raine, and ha3e freBuentl& been met #ith accusations of illegitimate "olitical meddling, %he grou"s usuall& res"ond b& "ointing out that the& #or5 o"enl&, not in secret, and b& arguing that their goals are not to achie3e s"ecific electoral outcomes, but Fust to ensure reasonabl& free and fair elections, >utside aid is necessar&, the& argue, to le3el electoral "la&ing fields and create safeguards against the mani"ulation of the "rocess b& regimes, %he truth, ho#e3er, is that although most e/ternal democrac& acti3ists ma& indeed be "rimaril& interested in achie3ing free and fair elections, the& also freBuentl& ho"e that their efforts #ill increase the li5elihood that autocrats #ill lose office, %he moti3es of 9,!, go3ernment agencies that fund (but do not s"ecificall& direct1 man& of the democrac& grou"s are similarl& com"licated, ranging from the "rinci"led to the instrumental, de"ending on the countr& in Buestion and the officials in charge, Not sur"risingl&, these subtleties are generall& lost on the targets of democrac&-"romotion dri3es, #ho tend to 3ie# such efforts as concerted cam"aigns to oust them, instigated or at least bac5ed b& "o#erful Destern go3ernments, es"eciall& the 9nited !tates, 2lthough autocratic leaders regularl& cite concerns about outside influence and the threat of instabilit& as their moti3ations for resisting "ro-democrac& efforts, a Buestion naturall& arisesJ 2re the& genuinel& afraid that relati3el& modest Destern democrac&-training "rograms and financial aid for often #ea5 ci3ic and "olitical grou"s #ill undermine their hold on "o#er, or is this fear Fust a con3enient Fustification for re"ressi3e measures the& #ould ta5e an&#a&6 %he ans#er 3aries, de"ending on the countr&, In some "laces, es"eciall& larger countries such as Russia and China, the latter e/"lanation "robabl& holds, %he Russian and Chinese go3ernments enFo& a strong gri" on "o#er and face no significant challengers, Putin8s offensi3e against Destern democrac& aid a""ears to be a #a& for him to "ortra& his authoritarian "roFect to Russians as a defense of the countr&8s national securit&, %he Kremlin ma& ha3e been some#hat rattled b& the )**. >range Re3olution in 95raine, but it #orried more about the influence it #ould lose in neighboring states than it did about a "olitical u"rising at home, Moreo3er, denigrating the >range Re3olution as the result of 9,!, machinations hel"ed Putin "ut a "ositi3e s"in on #hat #as one of his most glaring foreign "olic& failuresJ namel&, his su""ort for the losing side in the 95rainian elections, !imilarl&, the Chinese go3ernment8s recent in3ocations of the color re3olutions a""ear to be nothing more than the "resentation of a con3enient rationale for broadening the antiliberali=ation cam"aign it has been conducting for se3eral &ears, In other cases, es"eciall& in smaller, #ea5er countries, some genuine fear seems to be at #or5, %he s"ecter of cle3er 9,!, "olitical o"erati3es Buietl& fomenting local re3olutions does seem to ha3e s"oo5ed some strongmen, e3en though in actualit& Destern democrac& aid is not so "o#erful, 2lthough Dashington ma& s"end more than [0 billion on "ro-democrac& "rograms this &ear, the mone& is s"read o3er more than I* countries and goes to a #ide range of efforts, including court-management "rograms and assistance for go3ernment decentrali=ation efforts, 4i5e all t&"es of e/ternal assistance "romoting "olitical, economic, or social change, this aid is far from being a magic eli/ir, It can hel" boost e/isting ci3ic grou"s and o""osition "arties, 7ut it cannot create them #here the& do not e/ist or strengthen them #hen the& are fundamentall& #ea5, E3en in the case of !erbia -- a high-#ater mar5 in terms of "ro-democrac& "rograms8 asserti3eness and scale -- outside aid "la&ed onl& a su""orting role for the courageous and s5illful local acti3ists #ho led the #a&, 2nd the 3er& same t&"es of assistance ha3e so far "ro3ed far less effecti3e in countries such as 7elarus, #here the "olitical o""osition and ci3il societ& are relati3el& #ea5 and the regime is 3er& "o#erful, 2nd &et, man& "eo"le around the #orld -- not Fust autocrats feeling the heat -- 3ie#

e/ternal democrac& assistance s5e"ticall&, %he& assume that if the 9nited !tates decides to sha"e "olitical outcomes in relati3el& #ea5 countries, it can do so, In man& "laces, the current #a3e of asserti3e democrac& aid conFures u" memories of co3ert 9,!, actions during the Cold Dar, #hen Dashington did tr&, and sometimes succeeded in, s#inging elections or o3erthro#ing legitimate go3ernments, %o ma5e matters #orse, some Destern NG>s, #hether "ro"elled b& hubris or the desire to con3ince funders of
their im"ortance, ha3e a tendenc& to claim substantial credit for "olitical e3ents in #hich the& "la&ed onl& a 3er& minor role, >ccasional stories in the Destern media that "ortra& 9,!, democrac&-"romotion "rograms as ha3ing been the crucial factor in certain countries8 transitions to democrac& also contribute to the mis"erce"tions, 2 (CIM1 4IG@% 9N%> %@E N2%I>N! %he

bac5lash against democrac& aid can be understood as a reaction b& nondemocratic go3ernments to the increasingl& asserti3e "ro3ision of such aid, 7ut it is also lin5ed to and gains force from another sourceJ the broader "ublic unease #ith the 3er& idea of democrac& "romotion, a feeling that has s"read #idel& in the "ast se3eral &ears throughout the former !o3iet 9nion, #estern Euro"e, 4atin 2merica, the Middle East, and else#here,
President 7ush, b& embracing democrac& "romotion in the #a& he has, is largel& res"onsible for this discomfort,

Latin America is .ey to glo!al 'emocracy Lo#ent al 0E (2braham 4o#enthal W Professor at the !chool of International Relations at the 9ni3ersit& of !outhern California and President of the Pacific Council on International Polic& (PCIP1, L2mericans Must 2cce"t International Coo"erationM W Februar& 0. th, 0??., htt"J--lanic,ute/as,edu-la-region-ne#s-arc-lasnet-0??.-*0)(,html1 !M 2 third significance of 4atin 2merica toda& is as a prime arena- together #ith the former !o3iet 9nion and the countries of Eastern and Central Euro"e- for the core 9,!, 3alues of democratic go3ernance and free-mar5et economics, 2s both democrac& and ca"italism are se3erel& challenged in the former Communist countries, the #orld#ide a""eal and credibilit& of these ideas ma& de"end im"ortantl& on #hether our nearest neighbors can ma5e them #or5, Democracy is .ey to sol"e for e@tinction %&ra"c i. 1 W Resident !cholar at 2merican Enter"rise Institute 'oshua, LCemocrac& and nuclear "eace,M 'ul 00, htt"J--###,n"ec-#eb,org-s&llabi-mura3chi5,htm %he greatest im"etus for #orld "eace -- and "erforce of nuclear "eace -- is the s"read of democrac&, In a famous article, and subseBuent boo5, Francis Fu5u&ama argued that democrac&8s e/tension #as leading to $the
end of histor&,$ 7& this he meant the conclusion of man8s Buest for the right social order, but he also meant the $diminution of the li5elihood of large-scale conflict bet#een states,$ (01 Fu5u&ama8s "hrase #as intentionall& "ro3ocati3e, e3en tongue-in-chee5, but he #as "ointing to t#o do#n-to-earth historical obser3ationsJ that democracies are more "eaceful than other 5inds of go3ernment and that the #orld is gro#ing more democratic, Neither "oint has gone unchallenged, >nl& a fe# decades ago, as distinguished an obser3er of international relations as George Kennan made a claim Buite contrar& to the first of these assertions, Cemocracies,

he said, #ere slo# to anger, but once aroused $a democrac& , , , , fights in anger , , , , to the bitter end,$ ()1 Kennan8s 3ie# #as strongl& influenced b& the "olic& of $unconditional surrender$ "ursued in Dorld Dar II, 7ut subseBuent e/"erience, such as the negotiated settlements 2merica sought in Korea and :ietnam "ro3ed him #rong, Cemocracies are not onl& slo# to anger but also Buic5 to com"romise, 2nd to forgi3e, Not#ithstanding the insistence on unconditional surrender,
2merica treated 'a"an and that "art of German& that it occu"ied #ith e/traordinar& generosit&, In recent &ears a burgeoning literature has discussed the "eacefulness of democracies, Indeed the "ro"osition that democracies do not go to

#ar #ith one another has been described b& one "olitical scientist as being $as close as an&thing #e ha3e to an em"irical la# in international relations,$ (E1 !ome of those #ho find enthusiasm for democrac&
off-"utting ha3e challenged this "ro"osition, but their challenges ha3e onl& ser3ed as em"irical tests that ha3e confirmed its robustness, For e/am"le, the academic Paul Gottfried and the columnist-turned-"olitician Patric5 ', 7uchanan ha3e both instanced democratic England8s declaration of #ar against democratic Finland during Dorld Dar II, (.1 In fact, after much "rocrastination, England did accede to the "ressure of its !o3iet all& to declare #ar against Finland #hich #as allied #ith German&, 7ut the declaration #as "urel& formalJ no fighting ensued bet#een England and Finland, !urel& this is an e/ce"tion that "ro3es the rule, %he strongest e/ce"tion I can thin5 of is the #ar bet#een the nascent state of Israel and the 2rabs in 0?.X, Israel #as an embr&onic democrac& and 4ebanon, one of the 2rab belligerents, #as also democratic #ithin the confines of its "eculiar confessional di3ision of "o#er, 4ebanon, ho#e3er, #as a reluctant "art& to the fight, Dithin the councils of the 2rab 4eague, it o""osed the #ar but #ent along #ith its larger confreres #hen the& o"ted to attac5, E3en so, 4ebanon did little fighting and soon sued for "eace, %hus, in the case of 4ebanon against Israel, as in the case of England against Finland, democracies nominall& #ent to #ar against democracies #hen the& #ere dragged into conflicts b& authoritarian allies, %he "olitical scientist 7ruce Russett offers a different challenge to the notion that democracies are more "eaceful, $%hat democracies are in general, in dealing #ith all 5inds of

states, more "eaceful than are authoritarian or other nondemocraticall& constituted states , , , ,is a
much more contro3ersial "ro"osition than 8merel&8 that democracies are "eaceful in their dealings #ith each other, and one for #hich there is little s&stematic e3idence,$ he sa&s, (I1 Russett cites his o#n and other statistical e/"lorations #hich sho# that #hile democracies rarel& fight one another the& often fight against others, %he trouble #ith such studies, ho#e3er, is that the& rarel& e/amine the Buestion of #ho started or caused a #ar, %o reduce the data to a form that is Buantitati3el& measurable, it is easier to determine #hether a conflict has occurred bet#een t#o states than #hose fault it #as, 7ut the latter Buestion is all im"ortant,

Cemocracies ma& often go to #ar against dictatorshi"s because the dictators see them as "re& or underestimate their resol3e, Indeed, such e/am"les abound, German& might ha3e beha3ed more cautiousl& in the
summer of 0?0. had it reali=ed that England #ould fight to 3indicate 7elgian neutralit& and to su""ort France, 4ater, @itler #as emboldened b& his notorious contem"t for the flabbiness of the democracies, North Korea almost surel& discounted the li5elihood of an 2merican militar& res"onse to its in3asion of the !outh after !ecretar& of !tate Cean 2cheson "ublicl& defined 2merica8s defense "erimeter to e/clude the Korean "eninsula (a declaration #hich merel& confirmed e/isting 9,!, "olic&1, In 0??*, !addam @ussein8s decision to s#allo# Ku#ait #as "robabl& encouraged b& the inference he must ha3e ta5en from the statements and actions of 2merican officials that Dashington #ould offer no forceful resistance, Russett sa&s that those #ho claim democracies are in general more "eaceful $#ould ha3e us belie3e that the 9nited !tates #as regularl& on the defensi3e, rarel& on the offensi3e, during the Cold Dar,$ 7ut that is not Buite rightJ the #ord $regularl&$ distorts the issue, 2 3ictim can sometimes turn the tables on an aggressor, but that does not ma5e the 3ictim eBuall& bellicose, None #ould dis"ute that Na"oleon #as res"onsible for the Na"oleonic #ars or

@itler for Dorld Dar II in Euro"e, but after a time their 3ictims sei=ed the offensi3e, !o in the Cold Dar, the 9nited !tates ma& ha3e initiated some s5irmishes (although in fact it rarel& did1, but the struggle as a #hole #as dri3en one-sidedl&, %he !o3iet "olic& #as $class #arfare$N the 2merican "olic& #as $containment,$ %he so-called re3isionist historians argued that 2merica bore an eBual or larger share of res"onsibilit& for the conflict, 7ut Mi5hail Gorbache3 made nonsense of their theories #hen, in the name of glasnost and "erestroi5a, he turned the !o3iet 9nion a#a& from its historic course, %he Cold Dar ended almost instantl&--as he no doubt 5ne# it #ould, $De #ould ha3e been able to a3oid man& , , , difficulties if the democratic "rocess had de3elo"ed normall& in our countr&,$ he #rote, ((1 %o render Fudgment about the relati3e "eacefulness of states or s&stems, #e must as5 not onl& #ho started a #ar but #h&, In "articular #e should consider #hat in Catholic 'ust Dar doctrine is called $right intention,$ #hich means roughl&J #hat did the& ho"e to get out of it6 In the fe# cases in recent times in #hich #ars #ere initiated b& democracies, there #ere often moti3es other than aggrandi=ement, for e/am"le, #hen 2merica in3aded Grenada, %o be sure, Dashington #as im"elled b& selfinterest more than altruism, "rimaril& its concern for the #ell-being of 2merican nationals and its desire to remo3e a chi", ho#e3er tin&, from the !o3iet game board, 7ut 2merica had no designs u"on Grenada, and the in3aders #ere greeted #ith Fo& b& the Grenadan citi=enr&, 2fter organi=ing an election, 2merica "ulled out, In other cases, democracies ha3e turned to

#ar in the face of "ro3ocation, such as Israel8s in3asion of 4ebanon in 0?X) to root out an enem& s#orn to its destruction
or %ur5e&8s in3asion of C&"rus to rebuff a "o#er-grab b& Gree5 nationalists, In contrast, the #ars launched b& dictators, such as IraB8s in3asion of Ku#ait, North Korea8s of !outh Korea, the !o3iet 9nion8s of @ungar& and 2fghanistan, often ha3e aimed at conBuest or subFugation, %he big e/ce"tion to this rule is colonialism, %he Euro"ean "o#ers conBuered most of 2frica and 2sia, and continued to hold their "ri=es as Euro"e democrati=ed, No doubt man& of the instances of democracies at #ar that enter into the statistical calculations of researchers li5e Russett stem from the colonial era, 7ut colonialism #as a legac& of Euro"e8s "redemocratic times, and it #as abandoned after Dorld Dar II, !ince then, I 5no# of no case #here a democrac& has initiated #arfare #ithout significant "ro3ocation or for reasons of sheer aggrandi=ement, but there are se3eral cases #here dictators ha3e done so, >ne interesting "iece of Russett8s research should hel" to "oint him a#a& from his doubts that democracies are more "eaceful in general, @e aimed to e/"lain #h& democracies are more "eaceful to#ard each other, Immanuel Kant #as the first to obser3e, or rather to forecast, the "acific inclination of democracies, @e reasoned that $citi=ens , , , #ill ha3e a great hesitation in , , , , calling do#n on themsel3es all the miseries of #ar,$ (X1 7ut this 3alid insight is incom"lete, %here is a dee"er e/"lanation, Cemocrac&

is not Fust a mechanismN it entails a s"irit of com"romise and self-restraint, 2t bottom, democrac& is the #illingness to resol3e ci3il dis"utes #ithout recourse to 3iolence, Nations that embrace this ethos in the conduct of their domestic affairs are naturall& more "redis"osed to embrace it in their dealings #ith other nations, Russett aimed to e/"lain #h& democracies are more "eaceful
to#ard one another, %o do this, he constructed t#o models, >ne h&"othesi=ed that the cause la& in the mechanics of democratic decision-ma5ing (the $structural-institutional model$1, the other that it la& in the democratic ethos (the $cultural-normati3e model$1, @is statistical assessments led him to conclude thatJ $almost al#a&s the cultural-normati3e

model sho#s a consistent effect on conflict occurrence and #ar, %he structural-institutional model sometimes "ro3ides a significant relationshi" but often does not, $ (?1 If it is the ethos that ma5es
democratic states more "eaceful to#ard each other, #ould not that ethos also ma5e them more "eaceful in general6 Russett im"lies that the ans#er is no, because to his mind a critical element in the "eaceful beha3ior of democracies to#ard other democracies is their antici"ation of a conciliator& attitude b& their counter"art, 7ut this is too "at, %he attitude of li3e-and-let-li3e cannot be turned on and off li5e a s"igot, %he citi=ens and officials of democracies recogni=e that other states, ho#e3er go3erned, ha3e legitimate interests, and the& are dis"osed to tr& to accommodate those interests e/ce"t #hen the other "art&8s beha3ior seems threatening or outrageous, 2 different 5ind of challenge to the thesis that democracies are more "eaceful has been "osed b& the "olitical scientists Ed#ard G, Mansfield and 'ac5 !n&der, %he& claim statistical su""ort for the "ro"osition that #hile full& fledged democracies ma& be "acific, 2in thZeR transitional "hase of democrati=ation, countries become more aggressi3e and #ar-"rone, not less,$ (0*1 @o#e3er, li5e others, the& measure a state8s li5elihood of becoming in3ol3ed in a #ar but do not re"ort attem"ting to determine the cause or fault, Moreo3er, the& ac5no#ledge that their research re3ealed not onl& an increased li5elihood for a state to become in3ol3ed in a #ar #hen it #as gro#ing more democratic, but an almost eBual increase for states gro#ing less democratic, %his raises the "ossibilit& that the effects the& #ere obser3ing #ere caused sim"l& b& "olitical change "er se, rather than b& democrati=ation, Finall&, the& im"licitl& ac5no#ledge that the relationshi" of democrati=ation and "eacefulness ma& change o3er historical "eriods, %here is no reason to su""ose that an& such relationshi" is go3erned b& an immutable la#, !ince their em"irical base reaches bac5 to 0X00, an& effect the& re"ort, e3en if accuratel& inter"reted, ma& not hold in the contem"orar& #orld, %he& note that $in ZsomeR recent cases, in contrast to some of our historical results, the rule seems to beJ go full& democratic, or don8t go at all,$ 7ut according to Freedom @ouse, some +),I "ercent of e/tant go3ernments #ere chosen in legitimate elections, (0)1 (%his is a much larger "ro"ortion than are adFudged b& Freedom @ouse to be $free states,$ a more demanding criterion, and it includes man& #ea5l& democratic states,1 >f the remaining E(,I "ercent, a large number are e/"eriencing some degree of democrati=ation or hea3& "ressure in that direction, !o the choice $don8t go at all$ (001 is rarel& realistic in the contem"orar& #orld, %hese statistics also contain the ans#er to those #ho doubt the second "ro"osition behind Fu5u&ama8s forecast, namel&, that the #orld is gro#ing more democratic, !5e"tics ha3e dra#n u"on !amuel @untington8s fine boo5, %he %hird Da3eJ Cemocrati=ation in the 4ate %#entieth Centur&, @untington sa&s that the democrati=ation trend that began in the mid-0?(*s in Portugal, Greece and !"ain is the third such e"isode, %he first $#a3e$ of democrati=ation began #ith the 2merican re3olution and lasted through the aftermath of Dorld Dar I, coming to an end in the inter#ar &ears #hen much of Euro"e regressed bac5 to fascist or militar& dictatorshi", %he second #a3e, in this telling, follo#ed Dorld Dar II #hen #holesale decoloni=ation ga3e rise to a raft of ne# democracies, Most of these, notabl& in 2frica, colla"sed into dictatorshi" b& the 0?+*s, bringing the second #a3e to its end, %hose #ho follo# @untington8s argument ma& ta5e the failure of democrac& in se3eral of the former !o3iet re"ublics and some other instances of bac5sliding since 0?X? to signal the end of the third #a3e, !uch an im"ression, ho#e3er, #ould be misleading, >ne unsatisf&ing thing about @untington8s $#a3es$ is their une3enness, %he first lasted about 0I* &ears, the second about )*, @o# long should #e e/"ect the third to endure6 If it is li5e the second, it #ill ebb an& da& no#, but if it is li5e the first, it #ill run until the around the &ear )0)I, 2nd b& then--#ho 5no#s6-"erha"s man5ind #ill ha3e incinerated itself, mo3ed to another "lanet, or e3en de3ised a better "olitical s&stem, Further, @untington8s meta"hor im"lies a lac5 of o3erall "rogress or direction, Da3es rise and fall, 7ut each of the re3erses that follo#ed

@untington8s t#o #a3es #as brief, and each ne# #a3e raised the number of democracies higher than before, @untington does, ho#e3er, "resent a statistic that seems to #eigh hea3il& against an& unidirectional inter"retation of democratic "rogress, %he "ro"ortion of states that #ere democratic in 0??* (.I_1, he sa&s, #as identical to the "ro"ortion in 0?)), (0E1 7ut there are t#o ans#ers to this, In 0?)) there #ere onl& +. statesN in 0??* there #ere 0+I, 7ut the number of "eo"les had not gro#n a""reciabl&, %he difference #as that in 0?)) most "eo"les li3ed in colonies, and the& #ere not counted as states, %he +. states of that time #ere mostl& the ad3anced countries, >f those, t#o thirds had become democratic b& 0??*, #hich #as a significant gain, %he additional 0*0 states counted in 0??* #ere mostl& former colonies, >nl& a minorit&, albeit a substantial one, #ere democratic in 0??*, but since 3irtuall& none of those #ere democratic in 0?)), that #as also a significant gain, In short, there #as "rogress all around, but this #as obscured b& as5ing #hat "ercentage of states #ere democratic, 2s5ing the Buestion this #a& means that a "eo"le #ho #ere subFected to a domestic dictator counted as a non-democrac&, but a "eo"le #ho #ere subFected to a foreign dictator did not count at all, Moreo3er, #hile the criteria for Fudging a state democratic 3ar&, the statistic that .I "ercent of states #ere democratic in 0??* corres"onds #ith Freedom @ouse8s count of $democratic$ "olities (as o""osed to its smaller count of $free$ countries, a more demanding criterion1, 7ut b& this same count, Freedom @ouse no# sa&s that the "ro"ortion of democracies has gro#n to +),I "ercent, In other #ords, the $third #a3e$ has not abated, %hat Freedom @ouse could count 0)* freel& elected go3ernments b& earl& )**0 (out of a total of 0?) inde"endent states1 bes"ea5s a 3ast transformation in human go3ernance #ithin the s"an of ))I &ears, In 0((I, the number of democracies #as =ero, In 0((+, the birth of the 9nited !tates of 2merica brought the total u" to one, !ince then, democrac& has s"read at an accelerating "ace, most of the gro#th ha3ing occurred #ithin the t#entieth centur&, #ith greatest momentum since 0?(., %hat this momentum has slac5ened some#hat since its "innacle in 0?X?, destined to be remembered as one of the most re3olutionar& &ears in all histor&, #as ine3itable, !o man& "eo"les #ere s#e"t u" in the democratic tide that there #as certain to be some bac5sliding, Most countries8 democratic e3olution has included some fits and starts rather than a smooth "rogression, !o it must be for the #orld as a #hole, Nonetheless, the o3erall trend remains "o#erful and clear, Ces"ite the bac5sliding, the number and "ro"ortion of democracies stands higher toda& than e3er before, %his "rogress offers a source of ho"e for enduring nuclear "eace, %he danger of nuclear #ar #as radicall& reduced almost o3ernight #hen Russia abandoned Communism and turned to democrac&, For other ominous corners of the #orld, #e ma& be in a 5ind of race bet#een the emergence or gro#th of nuclear arsenals and the ad3ent of democrati=ation, If this is so, the greatest cause for #orr& ma& rest #ith the Moslem Middle East #here nuclear arsenals do not &et e/ist but #here the "ros"ects for democrac& ma& be still more remote,

Democracy DA Les Democracy )romotion

)romoting 'emocratic regimes is a ma=or part of *2(2 policy to#ar' Latin America only possi!le #it contin&e' egemonic infl&ence A6p&r&/ 1? (Cinorah, assistant "rofessor in the Political !cience Ce"artment at Dichita !tate 9ni3ersit&, and Carol&n M, !ha#, associate "rofessor in the Political !cience Ce"artment at Dichita !tate 9ni3ersit&, L%he 9nited !tates and the Promotion of Cemocrac& in 4atin 2mericaJ %hen, No# and %omorro#,M "ublished on behalf of the Foreign Polic& Research Institute, !"ring )*0*, htt"J--#ebs,#ichita,edu-de"ttools-de"ttoolsmemberfiles-carol&nsha#-)*0*_)*>rbis,"df, %ashma1 !ince the end of the Cold Dar, im"ortant changes ha3e ta5en "lace in 9,!, foreign "olic& to#ards 4atin 2merica, Instead of a meager su""ort for democrac& in the regionHand sometimes Buestionable actions that actuall& undermined democrac&H the "ost-Cold Dar 9,!, "olic& to#ard 4atin 2merica has become one of o3ertl& "romoting, establishing, and maintaining liberal democrac&, %his ne# "olic& has been im"lemented since the 0??*s through multilateral and bilateral actions of different 5inds, %he "ur"ose of
this article is to anal&=e the main 9,!, actions to "romote democrac& in the 4atin 2merican region0 since the 0??*s, the challenges it faces at the current time, and "ossible scenarios that lie ahead, %he "romotion of democrac& has become an

im"ortant "art of the foreign "olic& of ad3anced industrial democracies since the end of the Cold Dar, #hich coincided #ith the rise in democrac& around the #orld, Peter 7urnell identiTes three different a""roaches to "romoting democrac&, all of #hich ha3e been em"lo&ed b& the 9nited !tates to some degreeJ conditionalities, democrac& assistance, and use of force, 2lthough force has been largel& discredited, the other t#o a""roaches ha3e been used in a 3ariet& of cases #ith 3ar&ing degrees of success, 2""l&ing conditions and granting trade concessions can bring about some im"ro3ed democratic "ractices, but is largel& ineffecti3e #hen a determined
regime or strong leader is in "lace, %he "ro3ision of technical, Tnancial, material and s&mbolic su""ort for democrac& "rograms can ha3e a stronger im"act (although long term sustainabilit& is still "roblematic1,) Fostering democrac& has been "art of

the rhetoric of foreign "olic& to#ard the 4atin 2merican region since the da&s of Doodro# Dilson,E but has onl& become a "riorit& and a "ra/is for the 9nited !tates relati3el& recentl&, %hroughout most of the t#entieth
centur&, "articularl& during the Cold Dar, securit& and economic concerns freBuentl& too5 "recedence o3er liberal 9,!, "rinci"les, 9,!, su""ort for anti-communist militar& dictators and regimes often #or5ed against democratic de3elo"ment in the %hird Dorld, including the Destern @emis"here,

Democracy DA Democracy )romotion Ba'

9etrenc ment .ey to Latin American 'emocracy- eg .ills cre'i!ility of 'emocratic i'eals Cran'all ,?11 (Russell Crandall W associate "rofessor of International Politics at Ca3ison College -- Princi"al Cirector for the Destern @emis"here at the 9,!, Ce"artment of Cefense in )**? and Cirector for 2ndean 2ffairs at the National !ecurit& Council in )*0*-00, %he Post2merican @emis"here !ubtitleJ Po#er and Politics in an 2utonomous 4atin 2merica, Foreign 2ffairs, Ma&-'une, 4e/is1 !M
Ironicall&, moreo3er, 4atin 2merica8s entr& into a $"ost-hegemonic$ era, a "roduct of its o#n ad3ancements, could undermine its "ast "rogress, 2s the balance of "o#er in the region is redistributed, une/"ected alliances and enmities could arise, Man&

obser3ers ha3e assumed that less 9,!, in3ol3ement #ould be an inherentl& "ositi3e de3elo"ment, but that ma& be too o"timistic, No one should underestimate the ca"acit& of the :ene=uela-led bloc of Buasi-authoritarian leftist go3ernments to sto" the regional trend to#ard greater o"enness and democrac& -- 3alues that the bloc sees as re"resenting a ca"itulation to the 9,!,controlled global s&stem2 Nonetheless, 4atin 2merica8s emerging democratic consensus seems ine3itable, and as its strategic "osture finall& matures, the region #ill be more directl& res"onsible for its o#n successes and failures, 4ong 4atin 2merica8s master, the 9nited !tates must ada"t to the ne# realities of this "ost-hegemonic era, lest it see its influence diminish e3en further2 It must demonstrate an abilit& to Buietl& engage and lead #hen a""ro"riate -- an a""roach that #ill allo# Dashington to remain acti3el& in3ol3ed in the region8s affairs #ithout acting as though it is tr&ing to maintain its legac& of hegemon& ,
Gi3en ho# accustomed the 9nited !tates is to dominating the region, this "roFect #ill be harder than it sounds

*2(2 'emocracy promotion ine"ita!ly fails itCs percei"e' as imperialist propagan'a )oppe/ 1? (2nni5a E,, LDhither to, >bama6 9,!, democrac& "romotion after the Cold Dar,M Peace Research Institute Fran5furt, No, ?+, htt"J--edoc,3ifa"ol,de-o"us-3ollte/te-)*00-E)*0-"df-"rif?+,"df, %ashma1
Man& authors em"haticall& argue that the di3ide bet#een idealism and realism has finall& been crossed b& the foreign "olic& conce"t of democrac& "romotion (Carothers )***b, @olsti )***1, In Carothers #ordsJ L%he end of the cold #ar ga3e rise to the a""ealing notion that the traditional tension in 9,!, foreign "olic& bet#een real"oliti5 securit& interests and Dilsonian moral interests #as o3erM (Carothers 0???J .-I, his em"hasis1, !"reading democrac& around the #orld, no# that it a""eared more feasible than under the restrictions of the Cold Dars bi"olar confrontation, seemed after all to offer a multitude of ^hard and ^soft benefitsJ it satisfied the assumed societal demands for an idealistic "olic& in line #ith the 2merican self-image #hile at the same time "acif&ing the #orld and thereb& enhancing 9,!, securit& and economic o""ortunities, %he securit& logic of democrac& "romotion in "articular can onl& be a""reciated #hen one mo3es be&ond the realism-idealism dichotom& (Nau )***J 0)(1, Dhereas the theoretical debate has been "roducti3e in this regard, "utting democrac& into "ractice in non-democratic countries and rea"ing its

benefits has been, not sur"risingl&, more com"licated and less successful, Dhether 2merican democrac& "romotion has been effecti3e or not is another field of debate in #hich the cautionar& ha3e obtained the u""er hand, !e3eral studies on democrac& "romotion in 4atin 2merica ha3e sho#n that "ast attem"ts had little enduring success (4o#enthal 0??01, 2 stud& on the democrac&-building effects of 9!2IC assistance from 0??* to )**E
concludes that it has had a Lmoderate but consistent #orld#ide effectM but its authors em"hasi=e a number of Bualificator& obser3ations (Fin5el-P<re=4iUAn-!eligson )**(J .E+1,X Recentl&, the emerging literature discussing the global

bac5lash against democrac& and democrac& "romotion has added to the im"ression that e/ternal democrati=ation is not "erforming #ell and is e3en fueling a countermo3ement (Carothers )**+N NEC )**+1, 2ccording to Carothers, effects often fail to materiali=e because a lot of #ell-meaning aides confuse 2merican democrac& #ith liberal democrac& itself, %he t#o main misunderstandings #hich lead to failure , he "oints out, are the assum"tion that democrac& is a formal set of "rocedures #hich can be im"osed on an& 5ind of s&stem regardless of "rior democratic e/"erience and norms on the one hand, and the "remise that the democrac& to be "romoted needs a ^made in the 9nited !tates label in order to function on the other (Carothers )***a1, 4o#enthal adds that Lefforts to
nurture it Zdemocrac&, 2EPR must be restrained, res"ectful, sensiti3e, and "atient, %hese are not Bualities for #hich 9,!, foreign "olic& is generall& noted, but the& are needed to "romote democrac& abroadM (4o#enthal 0??0J .*)1, %he area in #hich this 5ind of restraint, sensiti3it& and "atience is "robabl& least "resent is the one in #hich democrac& has been "romoted through militar&

means, %his is im"ortant to note as there has been a shift to#ards militaril& im"osed democrac& since the 2merican in3asion of 2fghanistan in )**0, Mura3chi5 is con3inced that during the Cold Dar Lmilitar& occu"ation and co3ert action ha3e been highl& effecti3e means of s"reading democrac&M (Mura3chi5 0??0J )))-)E1, %o the contrar&, as a stud& co3ering the time "eriod from 0?.+ to 0??+ has sho#n, most inter3entions b& liberal states ha3e failed to lead to successful

democrati=ation in target countriesN onl& su""orti3e inter3entions b& 9nited Nations blue helmet troo"s seem to ha3e
limited effecti3eness (Pic5ering-Pecen& )**+1, 2s #ill be sho#n in the follo#ing cha"ter, the attem"t to "romote democrac& b& force is a characteristic the 7ush administration has become 5no#n W and strongl& critici=ed W for,

Anti-Americanism ca&se' !y egemony &n'ermines Latin American 'emocracy Foer $ (Fran5lin Foer W editor of the Ne# Re"ublic L%he talented Mr, Cha3e=J a Castro-lo3ing, 7oli3ar-#orshi""ing, onetime baseball-"la&er #annabe, :ene=uela8s @ugo Cha3e= is "erha"s the #orld8s most o"enl& anti-2merican head of state, Dith 4atin 2merica in the midst of a left#ard s#ing, ho# dangerous is he6M %he 2tlantic Monthl&, Ma& )**+, 4e/is1 !M @o# far left #ill the region s#ing in reaction6 %eodoro Pet5off, the editor of the Caracas "a"er %al Cual and one of
Cha3e=8s "rime ad3ersaries, has #ritten a boo5 called Cos I=Buierdas ($%#o 4efts$1, 9nder his ta/onom&, 7ra=ilian President 4ui= Inacio $4ula$ da !il3a re"resents one of these lefts, #hich "a&s li" ser3ice to Castro but ado"ts a more "ragmatic attitude to#ard economics and remains committed to liberal democrac&, 4i5e Euro"ean social democrac&, it ultimatel& see5s to humani=e ca"italism, not destro& it--a "olitical "rogram that could hel" 4atin 2merica correct the e/cesses of its neoliberal e/"eriment #ithout entirel& undermining its core economic contributions, Cha3e=, on the other hand, re"resents a more retrograde form of socialism, @is belief in strong leaders o3er strong institutions, his "reference for "atronage o3er careful "olic&, and his mistrust of some of the basic elements of the ca"italist s&stem add u" to disaster for go3ernment trans"arenc&, democrac&, and de3elo"ment, Dhich of the t#o lefts #ill e3entuall& #in out is unclear, Most residents of 4atin 2merica still belie3e that mar5et ca"italism is the onl& s&stem that can lead to de3elo"ment, and 4ula is more "o"ular than Cha3e= o3erall, 7ut there8s no doubt that Cha3e=8s a""roach is

#inning adherents, Cha3e= ma& soon ha3e close friends running Nicaragua, Me/ico/ and Peru,
2rgentina8s Kirchner seems the Funior "artner in his relationshi" #ith Cha3e=, des"ite his countr&8s bigger econom& andmilitar&, Cha3e=8s "rotege E3o Morales has alread& #on the 7oli3ian "residenc&, in "art b& follo#ing Cha3e=8s o#n model of anti-2merican rhetoric and "o"ulist a""eals, Morales has "romised to decriminali=e coca "roduction and redistribute land and "lans to re#rite 7oli3ia8s constitution this summer, E3en 2l3aro 9ribe, the "resident of Colombia and 2merica8s staunchest all& in !outh 2merica, has a""eared #ith Cha3e= in front of !imon 7oli3ar8s home and bashed 2merican $meddling,$ Cha3e=8s "erformance last No3ember at the !ummit of the 2mericas, held in the 2rgentine resort of Mar del Plata, re3eals #h& his a""eals to the leaders and citi=ens of 4atin 2merica ha3e been so successful, @e s5i""ed a#a& from the a#5#ard grou" "hotos #ith his fello# heads of state, and addressed a cro#d of )I,*** anti-globali=ation acti3ists gathered for a $counter-summit$ in a soccer stadium, @e #ra""ed his arm around Ciego Maradona, one of the greatest soccer "la&ers of all time, #ho8s "robabl& more admired than an& "olitician at the official "roceedings, $I thin5 #e came here to bur& F%22 Zthe Free %rade 2rea of the 2mericasR,$ Cha3e= intoned, $I brought m& sho3el,$ @e #as "la&ing a cle3er inside-outside gameJ at the same time thathe huddled #ith leaders li5e 4ula and Kirchner, he used the media togo o3er their heads and s"ea5 directl& to their radical "olitical bases, %his tactic #or5s #ell because most 4atin 2merican leaders stillde"end on su""ort from their o#n radical "arties, %heir acti3ist bases still genuflect to#ard @a3ana, and constantl& lament that their "residents lac5 Cha3e=8s gum"tion, $%he& li3e in fear of Cha3e= turningagainst them, because the& #orr& that their "eo"le might not ta5e their side,$ one 9,!, !tate Ce"artment official told me, %his d&namic has gi3en Cha3e= the run of the !outhern @emis"here, %he 9nited !tates hasn8t sho#n much deftness in tilting this fight bet#een the

t#o lefts to#ard "ragmatists li5e 4ula, Instead of ac5no#ledging the shortcomings of 4atin 2merica8s recent neoliberal
e/"eriment, it has insisted on "ushing for#ard #ith the F%22--an agreement that has little chance in the current "olitical en3ironment, Dhere Cha3e= constantl& announces ne# "lans to distribute cash around the region, the 9nited !tates continues to cut bac5 on its aid "ac5ages, 2nd #hile the 7ush administration isn8t about to confront Cha3e= seriousl&, it often gi3es the im"ression that such a "olic& is in the #or5s, allo#ing Cha3e= to bait the 9nited !tates into 3erbal duelsHbattles that reinforce Cha3e=8s m&thological 3ersion of himself, %his hardl& ma5es him the second coming of !imon 7oli3ar, Nonetheless, there are una3oidable similarities bet#een the t#o--including some that Cha3e= might not care to ac5no#ledge, Cha3e= claims that his fa3orite boo5 is Garcia MarBue=8s historical no3el about 7oli3ar8s last da&s, %he General in @is 4ab&rint, If this is true, he must 5no# that 7oli3ar ended his life distraught and de"ressed, Curing his final &ears, 7oli3ar de3ol3ed from radical democrat to dictator, @e both "raised democrac& as $the most sacred source$ of "o#er and "roclaimed that $necessit& recogni=es no la#s,$ Dhen Gran Colombia failed after ele3en &ears of struggle, during #hich 7oli3ar himself came to embod& man& of the o""ressi3e Bualities he8d originall& cam"aigned against, he dismissed the continent as ungo3ernable and descended into a bitter senescence, @e died and #as buried in ColombiaN :ene=uela, #hose "o"ulace had e3entuall& turned on him, had made him an e/ile in his final &ears, Cha3e=, des"ite his lo3e of "oetr&, ne3er seems to utter one of 7oli3ar8s most "oignant finesJ $%hose #ho ser3e the re3olution "lo# the sea,$ @istoricall&, 4atin 2merican re3olution has "ro3ed to be Fust as futile as 7oli3ar imagined, 7ecause of its "eculiar "olitical tem"erament, the region has s#ung bac5 and forth on a dialectical ro"e bet#een socialism and authoritarianism, occasionall& sto""ing, mid-s#ing, on go3ernments that combine the #orst attributes of both, 7ut in recent decades, the region loo5ed li5e it might finall& transcend this "attern of manic change, Dides"read ado"tion of liberal-democratic go3ernance and an embrace of

mar5et ca"italism seemed to bring relati3e "ros"erit& and genuine stabilit& #ithin gras", Cha3e= has the "otential to disru"t this "rogress and re3i3e 4atin 2merica8s old "olitical habits , 2ccording to a recent "oll, onl& about half of the region8s citi=ens --including minorities in 7oli3ia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and 7ra=il--no# belie3e that democrac& is al#a&s the best form of go3ernment, 4atin 2merica is 3ulnerable, and Cha3e= has "ro3ided a blue"rint not Fust for harnessing anti-2mericanism but

for the slo# consolidation of "o#er, 2long the #a&, he ma& succeed in baiting the 9nited !tates into a rhetorical fight that it can8t #in, and im"eding its international leadershi", 7ut ultimatel&, the
9nited !tates #ill not be the biggest loser in the battle Cha3e= is #aging, It #ill ne3er suffer nearl& as much as the "eo"le of the continent he dreams of liberating,

Democracy is .ey to sol"e for e@tinction %&ra"c i. 1 W Resident !cholar at 2merican Enter"rise Institute 'oshua, LCemocrac& and nuclear "eace,M 'ul 00, htt"J--###,n"ec-#eb,org-s&llabi-mura3chi5,htm %he greatest im"etus for #orld "eace -- and "erforce of nuclear "eace -- is the s"read of democrac&, In a famous article, and subseBuent boo5, Francis Fu5u&ama argued that democrac&8s e/tension #as leading to $the
end of histor&,$ 7& this he meant the conclusion of man8s Buest for the right social order, but he also meant the $diminution of the li5elihood of large-scale conflict bet#een states,$ (01 Fu5u&ama8s "hrase #as intentionall& "ro3ocati3e, e3en tongue-in-chee5, but he #as "ointing to t#o do#n-to-earth historical obser3ationsJ that democracies are more "eaceful than other 5inds of go3ernment and that the #orld is gro#ing more democratic, Neither "oint has gone unchallenged, >nl& a fe# decades ago, as distinguished an obser3er of international relations as George Kennan made a claim Buite contrar& to the first of these assertions, Cemocracies,

he said, #ere slo# to anger, but once aroused $a democrac& , , , , fights in anger , , , , to the bitter end,$ ()1 Kennan8s 3ie# #as strongl& influenced b& the "olic& of $unconditional surrender$ "ursued in Dorld Dar II, 7ut subseBuent e/"erience, such as the negotiated settlements 2merica sought in Korea and :ietnam "ro3ed him #rong, Cemocracies are not onl& slo# to anger but also Buic5 to com"romise, 2nd to forgi3e, Not#ithstanding the insistence on unconditional surrender,
2merica treated 'a"an and that "art of German& that it occu"ied #ith e/traordinar& generosit&, In recent &ears a burgeoning literature has discussed the "eacefulness of democracies, Indeed the "ro"osition that democracies do not go to

#ar #ith one another has been described b& one "olitical scientist as being $as close as an&thing #e ha3e to an em"irical la# in international relations,$ (E1 !ome of those #ho find enthusiasm for democrac&
off-"utting ha3e challenged this "ro"osition, but their challenges ha3e onl& ser3ed as em"irical tests that ha3e confirmed its robustness, For e/am"le, the academic Paul Gottfried and the columnist-turned-"olitician Patric5 ', 7uchanan ha3e both instanced democratic England8s declaration of #ar against democratic Finland during Dorld Dar II, (.1 In fact, after much "rocrastination, England did accede to the "ressure of its !o3iet all& to declare #ar against Finland #hich #as allied #ith German&, 7ut the declaration #as "urel& formalJ no fighting ensued bet#een England and Finland, !urel& this is an e/ce"tion that "ro3es the rule, %he strongest e/ce"tion I can thin5 of is the #ar bet#een the nascent state of Israel and the 2rabs in 0?.X, Israel #as an embr&onic democrac& and 4ebanon, one of the 2rab belligerents, #as also democratic #ithin the confines of its "eculiar confessional di3ision of "o#er, 4ebanon, ho#e3er, #as a reluctant "art& to the fight, Dithin the councils of the 2rab 4eague, it o""osed the #ar but #ent along #ith its larger confreres #hen the& o"ted to attac5, E3en so, 4ebanon did little fighting and soon sued for "eace, %hus, in the case of 4ebanon against Israel, as in the case of England against Finland, democracies nominall& #ent to #ar against democracies #hen the& #ere dragged into conflicts b& authoritarian allies, %he "olitical scientist 7ruce Russett offers a different challenge to the notion that democracies are more "eaceful, $%hat democracies are in general, in dealing #ith all 5inds of

states, more "eaceful than are authoritarian or other nondemocraticall& constituted states , , , ,is a
much more contro3ersial "ro"osition than 8merel&8 that democracies are "eaceful in their dealings #ith each other, and one for #hich there is little s&stematic e3idence,$ he sa&s, (I1 Russett cites his o#n and other statistical e/"lorations #hich sho# that #hile democracies rarel& fight one another the& often fight against others, %he trouble #ith such studies, ho#e3er, is that the& rarel& e/amine the Buestion of #ho started or caused a #ar, %o reduce the data to a form that is Buantitati3el& measurable, it is easier to determine #hether a conflict has occurred bet#een t#o states than #hose fault it #as, 7ut the latter Buestion is all im"ortant,

Cemocracies ma& often go to #ar against dictatorshi"s because the dictators see them as "re& or underestimate their resol3e, Indeed, such e/am"les abound, German& might ha3e beha3ed more cautiousl& in the
summer of 0?0. had it reali=ed that England #ould fight to 3indicate 7elgian neutralit& and to su""ort France, 4ater, @itler #as emboldened b& his notorious contem"t for the flabbiness of the democracies, North Korea almost surel& discounted the li5elihood of an 2merican militar& res"onse to its in3asion of the !outh after !ecretar& of !tate Cean 2cheson "ublicl& defined 2merica8s defense "erimeter to e/clude the Korean "eninsula (a declaration #hich merel& confirmed e/isting 9,!, "olic&1, In 0??*, !addam @ussein8s decision to s#allo# Ku#ait #as "robabl& encouraged b& the inference he must ha3e ta5en from the statements and actions of 2merican officials that Dashington #ould offer no forceful resistance, Russett sa&s that those #ho claim democracies are in general more "eaceful $#ould ha3e us belie3e that the 9nited !tates #as regularl& on the defensi3e, rarel& on the offensi3e, during the Cold Dar,$ 7ut that is not Buite rightJ the #ord $regularl&$ distorts the issue, 2 3ictim can sometimes turn the tables on an aggressor, but that does not ma5e the 3ictim eBuall& bellicose, None #ould dis"ute that Na"oleon #as res"onsible for the Na"oleonic #ars or @itler for Dorld Dar II in Euro"e, but after a time their 3ictims sei=ed the offensi3e, !o in the Cold Dar, the 9nited !tates ma& ha3e initiated some s5irmishes (although in fact it rarel& did1, but the struggle as a #hole #as dri3en one-sidedl&, %he !o3iet "olic& #as $class #arfare$N the 2merican "olic& #as $containment,$ %he so-called re3isionist historians argued that 2merica bore an eBual or larger share of res"onsibilit& for the conflict, 7ut Mi5hail Gorbache3 made nonsense of their theories #hen, in the name of glasnost and "erestroi5a, he turned the !o3iet 9nion a#a& from its historic course, %he Cold Dar ended almost instantl&--as he no doubt 5ne# it #ould, $De #ould ha3e been able to a3oid man& , , , difficulties if the democratic "rocess had de3elo"ed normall& in our countr&,$ he #rote, ((1 %o render Fudgment about the relati3e "eacefulness of states or s&stems, #e must as5 not onl& #ho started a #ar but #h&, In "articular #e should consider #hat in Catholic 'ust Dar doctrine is called $right intention,$ #hich means roughl&J #hat did the& ho"e to get out of it6 In the fe# cases in recent times in #hich #ars #ere initiated b& democracies, there #ere often moti3es other than aggrandi=ement, for e/am"le, #hen 2merica in3aded Grenada, %o be sure, Dashington #as im"elled b& self-

interest more than altruism, "rimaril& its concern for the #ell-being of 2merican nationals and its desire to remo3e a chi", ho#e3er tin&, from the !o3iet game board, 7ut 2merica had no designs u"on Grenada, and the in3aders #ere greeted #ith Fo& b& the Grenadan citi=enr&, 2fter organi=ing an election, 2merica "ulled out, In other cases, democracies ha3e turned to

#ar in the face of "ro3ocation, such as Israel8s in3asion of 4ebanon in 0?X) to root out an enem& s#orn to its destruction
or %ur5e&8s in3asion of C&"rus to rebuff a "o#er-grab b& Gree5 nationalists, In contrast, the #ars launched b& dictators, such as IraB8s in3asion of Ku#ait, North Korea8s of !outh Korea, the !o3iet 9nion8s of @ungar& and 2fghanistan, often ha3e aimed at conBuest or subFugation, %he big e/ce"tion to this rule is colonialism, %he Euro"ean "o#ers conBuered most of 2frica and 2sia, and continued to hold their "ri=es as Euro"e democrati=ed, No doubt man& of the instances of democracies at #ar that enter into the statistical calculations of researchers li5e Russett stem from the colonial era, 7ut colonialism #as a legac& of Euro"e8s "redemocratic times, and it #as abandoned after Dorld Dar II, !ince then, I 5no# of no case #here a democrac& has initiated #arfare #ithout significant "ro3ocation or for reasons of sheer aggrandi=ement, but there are se3eral cases #here dictators ha3e done so, >ne interesting "iece of Russett8s research should hel" to "oint him a#a& from his doubts that democracies are more "eaceful in general, @e aimed to e/"lain #h& democracies are more "eaceful to#ard each other, Immanuel Kant #as the first to obser3e, or rather to forecast, the "acific inclination of democracies, @e reasoned that $citi=ens , , , #ill ha3e a great hesitation in , , , , calling do#n on themsel3es all the miseries of #ar,$ (X1 7ut this 3alid insight is incom"lete, %here is a dee"er e/"lanation, Cemocrac&

is not Fust a mechanismN it entails a s"irit of com"romise and self-restraint, 2t bottom, democrac& is the #illingness to resol3e ci3il dis"utes #ithout recourse to 3iolence, Nations that embrace this ethos in the conduct of their domestic affairs are naturall& more "redis"osed to embrace it in their dealings #ith other nations, Russett aimed to e/"lain #h& democracies are more "eaceful
to#ard one another, %o do this, he constructed t#o models, >ne h&"othesi=ed that the cause la& in the mechanics of democratic decision-ma5ing (the $structural-institutional model$1, the other that it la& in the democratic ethos (the $cultural-normati3e model$1, @is statistical assessments led him to conclude thatJ $almost al#a&s the cultural-normati3e

model sho#s a consistent effect on conflict occurrence and #ar, %he structural-institutional model sometimes "ro3ides a significant relationshi" but often does not, $ (?1 If it is the ethos that ma5es
democratic states more "eaceful to#ard each other, #ould not that ethos also ma5e them more "eaceful in general6 Russett im"lies that the ans#er is no, because to his mind a critical element in the "eaceful beha3ior of democracies to#ard other democracies is their antici"ation of a conciliator& attitude b& their counter"art, 7ut this is too "at, %he attitude of li3e-and-let-li3e cannot be turned on and off li5e a s"igot, %he citi=ens and officials of democracies recogni=e that other states, ho#e3er go3erned, ha3e legitimate interests, and the& are dis"osed to tr& to accommodate those interests e/ce"t #hen the other "art&8s beha3ior seems threatening or outrageous, 2 different 5ind of challenge to the thesis that democracies are more "eaceful has been "osed b& the "olitical scientists Ed#ard G, Mansfield and 'ac5 !n&der, %he& claim statistical su""ort for the "ro"osition that #hile full& fledged democracies ma& be "acific, 2in thZeR transitional "hase of democrati=ation, countries become more aggressi3e and #ar-"rone, not less,$ (0*1 @o#e3er, li5e others, the& measure a state8s li5elihood of becoming in3ol3ed in a #ar but do not re"ort attem"ting to determine the cause or fault, Moreo3er, the& ac5no#ledge that their research re3ealed not onl& an increased li5elihood for a state to become in3ol3ed in a #ar #hen it #as gro#ing more democratic, but an almost eBual increase for states gro#ing less democratic, %his raises the "ossibilit& that the effects the& #ere obser3ing #ere caused sim"l& b& "olitical change "er se, rather than b& democrati=ation, Finall&, the& im"licitl& ac5no#ledge that the relationshi" of democrati=ation and "eacefulness ma& change o3er historical "eriods, %here is no reason to su""ose that an& such relationshi" is go3erned b& an immutable la#, !ince their em"irical base reaches bac5 to 0X00, an& effect the& re"ort, e3en if accuratel& inter"reted, ma& not hold in the contem"orar& #orld, %he& note that $in ZsomeR recent cases, in contrast to some of our historical results, the rule seems to beJ go full& democratic, or don8t go at all,$ 7ut according to Freedom @ouse, some +),I "ercent of e/tant go3ernments #ere chosen in legitimate elections, (0)1 (%his is a much larger "ro"ortion than are adFudged b& Freedom @ouse to be $free states,$ a more demanding criterion, and it includes man& #ea5l& democratic states,1 >f the remaining E(,I "ercent, a large number are e/"eriencing some degree of democrati=ation or hea3& "ressure in that direction, !o the choice $don8t go at all$ (001 is rarel& realistic in the contem"orar& #orld, %hese statistics also contain the ans#er to those #ho doubt the second "ro"osition behind Fu5u&ama8s forecast, namel&, that the #orld is gro#ing more democratic, !5e"tics ha3e dra#n u"on !amuel @untington8s fine boo5, %he %hird Da3eJ Cemocrati=ation in the 4ate %#entieth Centur&, @untington sa&s that the democrati=ation trend that began in the mid-0?(*s in Portugal, Greece and !"ain is the third such e"isode, %he first $#a3e$ of democrati=ation began #ith the 2merican re3olution and lasted through the aftermath of Dorld Dar I, coming to an end in the inter#ar &ears #hen much of Euro"e regressed bac5 to fascist or militar& dictatorshi", %he second #a3e, in this telling, follo#ed Dorld Dar II #hen #holesale decoloni=ation ga3e rise to a raft of ne# democracies, Most of these, notabl& in 2frica, colla"sed into dictatorshi" b& the 0?+*s, bringing the second #a3e to its end, %hose #ho follo# @untington8s argument ma& ta5e the failure of democrac& in se3eral of the former !o3iet re"ublics and some other instances of bac5sliding since 0?X? to signal the end of the third #a3e, !uch an im"ression, ho#e3er, #ould be misleading, >ne unsatisf&ing thing about @untington8s $#a3es$ is their une3enness, %he first lasted about 0I* &ears, the second about )*, @o# long should #e e/"ect the third to endure6 If it is li5e the second, it #ill ebb an& da& no#, but if it is li5e the first, it #ill run until the around the &ear )0)I, 2nd b& then--#ho 5no#s6-"erha"s man5ind #ill ha3e incinerated itself, mo3ed to another "lanet, or e3en de3ised a better "olitical s&stem, Further, @untington8s meta"hor im"lies a lac5 of o3erall "rogress or direction, Da3es rise and fall, 7ut each of the re3erses that follo#ed @untington8s t#o #a3es #as brief, and each ne# #a3e raised the number of democracies higher than before, @untington does, ho#e3er, "resent a statistic that seems to #eigh hea3il& against an& unidirectional inter"retation of democratic "rogress, %he "ro"ortion of states that #ere democratic in 0??* (.I_1, he sa&s, #as identical to the "ro"ortion in 0?)), (0E1 7ut there are t#o ans#ers to this, In 0?)) there #ere onl& +. statesN in 0??* there #ere 0+I, 7ut the number of "eo"les had not gro#n a""reciabl&, %he difference #as that in 0?)) most "eo"les li3ed in colonies, and the& #ere not counted as states, %he +. states of that time #ere mostl& the ad3anced countries, >f those, t#o thirds had become democratic b& 0??*, #hich #as a significant gain, %he additional 0*0 states counted in 0??* #ere mostl& former colonies, >nl& a minorit&, albeit a substantial one, #ere democratic in 0??*, but since 3irtuall& none of those #ere democratic in 0?)), that #as also a significant gain, In short, there #as "rogress all around, but this #as obscured b& as5ing #hat "ercentage of states #ere democratic, 2s5ing the Buestion this #a& means that a "eo"le #ho #ere subFected to a domestic dictator counted as a non-democrac&, but a "eo"le #ho #ere subFected to a foreign dictator did not count at all,

Moreo3er, #hile the criteria for Fudging a state democratic 3ar&, the statistic that .I "ercent of states #ere democratic in 0??* corres"onds #ith Freedom @ouse8s count of $democratic$ "olities (as o""osed to its smaller count of $free$ countries, a more demanding criterion1, 7ut b& this same count, Freedom @ouse no# sa&s that the "ro"ortion of democracies has gro#n to +),I "ercent, In other #ords, the $third #a3e$ has not abated, %hat Freedom @ouse could count 0)* freel& elected go3ernments b& earl& )**0 (out of a total of 0?) inde"endent states1 bes"ea5s a 3ast transformation in human go3ernance #ithin the s"an of ))I &ears, In 0((I, the number of democracies #as =ero, In 0((+, the birth of the 9nited !tates of 2merica brought the total u" to one, !ince then, democrac& has s"read at an accelerating "ace, most of the gro#th ha3ing occurred #ithin the t#entieth centur&, #ith greatest momentum since 0?(., %hat this momentum has slac5ened some#hat since its "innacle in 0?X?, destined to be remembered as one of the most re3olutionar& &ears in all histor&, #as ine3itable, !o man& "eo"les #ere s#e"t u" in the democratic tide that there #as certain to be some bac5sliding, Most countries8 democratic e3olution has included some fits and starts rather than a smooth "rogression, !o it must be for the #orld as a #hole, Nonetheless, the o3erall trend remains "o#erful and clear, Ces"ite the bac5sliding, the number and "ro"ortion of democracies stands higher toda& than e3er before, %his "rogress offers a source of ho"e for enduring nuclear "eace, %he danger of nuclear #ar #as radicall& reduced almost o3ernight #hen Russia abandoned Communism and turned to democrac&, For other ominous corners of the #orld, #e ma& be in a 5ind of race bet#een the emergence or gro#th of nuclear arsenals and the ad3ent of democrati=ation, If this is so, the greatest cause for #orr& ma& rest #ith the Moslem Middle East #here nuclear arsenals do not &et e/ist but #here the "ros"ects for democrac& ma& be still more remote,

Dollar Ba' DA 1NC

LA is replacing t e 'ollar no#;*( engagement in Latin America 'estroys re"erses t at +essman/ 1, - Ph,C, Political !cience, 9ni3ersit& of Colorado, assistant "rofessor of International 2ffairs and associate director of the Center for the !tud& of Global Issues (Globis1 at the 9ni3ersit& of Georgia (7roc5 F,, L!&stem !tructure and !tate !trateg&J 2dding @edging to the Menu,M Ma& ))nd, )*0), %a&lor and Francis >nline1--@24
7ra=ils a""roach to mediation is e"itomi=ed b& its abilit& to "rioriti=e the long-term goal of integration o3er short-term "olic& 3ictories, For e/am"le, 7rasilia has continuall& refrained from "unishing 2rgentina for trade 3iolations in #a5e of its )**0 economic crisis and has also maintainedHdes"ite the increasingl& Farring rhetoric from @ugo Cha3e=Hrather #arm relations #ith :ene=uela, Perha"s the clearest e/am"le of %&"e 7 strategic hedging is found in 7ra=ils efforts to

build regional economic organi=ations that can function inde"endentl& of the 9nited !tates , #estern Tnancial institutions, and the 9! dollar, In the summer of )*00, 9N2!9R Tnance and foreign affairs ministers held a series of meetings in order to de3elo" a "lan that #ould insulate the region from future economic crises in Euro"e and the 9nited !tates,(X In "articular, the 9N2!9R countries #ere see5ing a strateg&
that #ould successfull& reduce their reliance on 2merican-dominated Tnancial institutions li5e the International Monetar& Fund (IMF1 and Dorld 7an5, #hile also allo#ing the region to mo3e a#a& from the use of 9! dollars as the dominant currenc& for regional trade, 2s 2rgentinas Ce"ut& Econom& minister Roberto Feletti e/"lained, LDhat #as a""ro3ed b& the meeting of ministers as an action "lan is to ad3ance in the design of a multilateral "a&ments s&stem #hich tends to use local currencies, %he

tendenc& is to graduall& re"lace the 9,!, dollar in regional trade,M(? 7ecause 7ra=il is a hea3& e/"orter and is also the target of more and more foreign in3estment, regional de"endence on the 9! dollar is threatening because the countr&s gro#ing reser3es are subFect to signiTcant de"reciation as the dollar falls in relation to the 7ra=ilian real, Dhile the accumulation of 9! dollars #as at one "oint seen as a desirable conseBuence of a "ositi3e trade balance and gro#ing foreign in3estment, the erosion of the dollar has led 7ra=ilian leaders to "ush for the use of local currencies in regional trade and in3estment, X* 7ra=ilian leaders ha3e also sought to establish a 4atin 2merican Reser3es Fund Council (F42R1 , %he F42R #ould su"er3ise a regional reser3e ban5 (7anco del !ur1 that #ould come to the aid of states that #ere e/"eriencing balance of "a&ments "roblems,X0 %he F42R #ould ser3e as a regional eBui3alent of the IMF and #ould reduce regional de"endence on that 2merican-led institution, 4i5e the 2sian Monetar& Fund that emerged in the #a5e of the Tnancial crisis of 0??( and 0??X, a 7anco del !ur #ould not be seen as a tool for confronting #estern Tnancial institutions, but rather a #a& to reduce regional de"endence on them, For 7ra=il, the ban5 #ould be a stabili=ing force in the regionN countries #ith the highest "otential for balance of "a&ments "roblemsH:ene=uela, 7oli3ia, and EcuadorHare also those that #ould ha3e the hardest time obtaining conditional loans from the IMF, X) 7ra=ils militar&, di"lomatic, and economic a""roaches to regional leadershi" in !outh 2merica are designed to re"lace "ublic goods that ha3ehistoricall& been "ro3ided b& the 9nited !tates , *( 'ollar ca&ses c&rrency #ars;goes glo!al 9at !one/ 14 - the Financial %imes 4atin 2merican editor, #or5ed as an economist and a Fournalist at the Dorld 7an5, graduate of >/ford and Columbia 9ni3ersities ('ohn Paul, Februar& 0)th, )*0E, LCurrenc& fears s"read in 4atin 2merica,M Financial %imes, htt"J--###,ft,com-intl-cms-s-*-c(+Iec0a-()0b-00e)-X?fb**0..feab.?a,htmlka/==)G0('dF%G1--@24 4atin 2merica is going 7ra=ilian , Pre3iousl&, it #as onl& 7ra=il, the regions biggest econom&, that com"lained about the com"etiti3e de3aluations generated b& mone&-"rinting in the #est, the so-called currenc& #ars, No#, ho#e3er, as 'a"an Foins the rush to "rint mone& and de3alue, the more orthodo/ and free-trading 4atin economies W in3estor darlings such as Me/ico, Chile, Colombia and Peru W also fear catching a bullet, %he
issue ma& #ell dominate this #ee5s G)* meeting in Mosco#, gi3en that 2sian e/"orters such as !outh Korea are also #orried about currenc& a""reciation, LNot all 4atin 2merican "olic& ma5ers ha3e used the term currenc& #ar,M sa&s 4uis >ganes, head of 4atin

2merica research at 'PMorgan, 7ut the& Lare e/"ressing increasing concern and reacting to itM, 4ast #ee5,

Feli"e 4arra n, Chiles finance minister, lamented that com"etiti3e

de3aluations of global currencies from Buantitati3e easing, or gE, could lead Lto ne# forms of trade "rotectionism M, 2gust n Carstens, the head of
Me/icos central ban5, #arned the follo#ing da& that massi3e cross-border ca"ital flo#s could lead to a L"erfect stormM of economic "roblems, @e added that Lconcerns of asset-"rice bubbles fed b& credit booms are starting to rea""earM, !&m"tomatic of this #as a t#eet last %uesda& b& 7ill Gross, the co-chief in3estment officer of Pimco, the bond fund, #hich "raised the Me/ican "eso as a Lgreat currenc&M and that led an almost 0 "ercentage "oint Fum" in the currenc&, !uch concerns are the o""osite of those in more mismanaged 4atin economies, such as :ene=uela, #hich de3alued on Frida&, or 2rgentina, both of #hich are suffering ca"ital outflo#s, Dhat ma5es this round of currenc& #ar com"laints different from #hen 7ra=il coined the "hrase in )*0*, is that after &ears of orthodo/ "olic& ma5ing the Me/ican, Colombian, Peru3ian and Chilean economies, #hich ha3e a combined economic out"ut of [),0tn, enFo& lo#er inflation and interest rates, and smaller budget deficits, 2nd &et the& are still suffering, L%he term ^currenc& #ars is often used as a sca"egoat b& "olic& ma5ers,M sa&s Michael @enderson, 4atin 2merica economist at Ca"ital Economics, a consultanc&, L%he fact that "eo"le such as Me/icos Carstens are "ic5ing u" on the idea lends it more credence,M Certainl&, the e3idence seems clear, %he Me/ican, Chilean, Colombian and Peru3ian currencies all

a""reciated b& about 0* "er cent against the dollar last &ear , %he a3erage of their inflation-adFusted, trade #eighted currencies is no# also X "er cent abo3e the 0*-&ear a3erage, %his has "rom"ted ho#ls of "rotest from local e/"orters, and increased "ressure on "oliticians to Ldo somethingM to hel", LDe firml& criticise
the monetar& "olicies of de3elo"ed economies #hich are generating e/cessi3e international liBuidit& and o3er3aluing currencies such as ours,M Mauricio CArdenas, Colombias finance minister, told the Financial %imes,

Dollar Ba' DA Inflation Impact

LA is mo"ing a#ay from t e 'ollar;'ollar collapses t e glo!al economy an' ca&ses massi"e inflation G&6man/ 14 - researcher and #riter #ith a focus on "olitical, economic, media and historical s"heres, graduate of @unter College in Ne# Gor5 Cit& (%imoth& 2le/ander, LIn3esting in !il3er, Mo3ing out of the CollarJ %he Roman Cenarius, the 2merican dollar and the Return of !il3er6M Global Research, Februar& *., )*0E, htt"J--###,globalresearch,ca-in3esting-in-sil3er#ea5ness-of-the-dollar-the-roman-denarius-the-american-dollar-and-the-return-ofsil3er-IE)0+0*1--@24
If the 9! dollar colla"ses, it #ill ha3e a dramatic im"act on the #orld econom& because the dollar is the standard unit of currenc& for commodit& mar5ets, es"eciall& gold and oil, %he 9,!, dollar is still the #orlds reser3e currenc&, but the realit& is that it can lead the #orld into an economic de"ression, Nations #ith large e/ternal debts #ill not be able to trade sufficientl& to earn the needed income to ser3ice their debts, %he& #ill slide into ban5ru"tc&, @o#e3er , countries such as Russia and China are ta5ing

necessar& ste"s to a3oid an economic tsunami caused b& a colla"se of the 9! dollar b& announcing in )*0* that the& #ill use their o#n currencies #hich is the Russian Ruble and the Chinese Guan
for bilateral trade, Iran and India decided to trade gold for oil due to 9! sanctions on Iran because of its nuclear "rogram, 'a"an and China announced that the& #ill also trade in their o#n currencies des"ite di"lomatic "roblems in3ol3ing the Ciao&u Islands in the East China !ea, >ne thing is certain, the #orld is slo#l& but surel& mo3ing a#a& from the 9! dollar , %he

cost of li3ing among "eo"le #ho deal #ith the 9! dollar on a dail& basis es"eciall& b& those #ho li3e #ithin the 9nited !tates #ill see a ra"id decline in the standards of li3ing due to Federal Reser3e 7an5s debasement of the dollar b& "rinting unlimited amounts of mone& through guantitati3e easing (gE1, %he Federal Reser3es action #ill cause food, clothing and energ& "rices to soar, #hich #ill hurt the a3erage famil&, 2s the 9! Federal Reser3e 7an5 continues to "rint dollars, the result #ill be inflation, It #ill
cause "anic on the #orld mar5ets and ci3il unrest among the "eo"le #ho reali=e that the 9! dollars the& de"end on #ould no longer be able to bu& their basic necessities, Dhat can be done around the #orld to a3oid such a scenario #hen the colla"se of the dollar is ine3itable6 @istor& "ro3es that sil3er can become an alternati3e currenc& that can re"lace the dollar, although man& countries

are "urchasing large amounts of gold such as Russia and China #ith other countries in 4atin 2merica and 2sia follo#ing in the same footste"s, @o#e3er, sil3er #ill still be a good o"tion, 2t least &ou ha3e a
choice in #hich "recious metals &ou can in3est in, !il3er has been used for thousands of &ears as a monetar& s&stem for the economies of "ast ci3ili=ations,

Inflation .ills t e economy 'estr&ction of mi''le class an' political insta!ility Ma.aria 0HEditor of Ne#s#ee5, 72 from Gale, PhC in "ol sci, @ar3ard, @e ser3es on the board of Gale 9ni3ersit&, %he Council on Foreign Relations, %he %rilateral Commission, and !ha5es"eare and Com"an&, Named $one of the )0 most im"ortant "eo"le of the )0st Centur&$ (Fareed, %he !ecrets of !tabilit&, 0) Cecember )**?, htt"J--###,fareed=a5aria,com-articles-articles,html1 %he second force for stabilit& is the 3ictor&Hafter a decades-long struggleHo3er the cancer of inflation, %hirt&-fi3e &ears ago, much of the #orld #as "lagued b& high inflation, #ith dee" social and "olitical conseBuences, !e3ere inflation can !e far more 'isr&pti"e t an a recession/

!eca&se # ile recessions ro! yo& of !etter =o!s an' #ages t at yo& mig t a"e a' in t e f&t&re/ inflation ro!s yo& of # at yo& a"e no# !y 'estroying yo&r sa"ings2 In man& countries in the 0?(*s, yperinflation le' to t e 'estr&ction of t e mi''le class/ # ic #as t e !ac.gro&n' con'ition for many of t e political 'ramas of t e era;co&ps in Latin America/ t e s&spension of 'emocracy in In'ia/ t e o"ert ro# of t e s a in Iran, 7ut then in 0?(?, the tide began to turn

#hen Paul :olc5er too5 o3er the 9,!, Federal Reser3e and #aged #ar against inflation, >3er t#o decades, central !an.s manage' to 'ecisi"ely !eat 'o#n t e !east2 At t is point/ only one
co&ntry in t e #orl' s&ffers from - yperinflationF Mim!a!#e2 Lo# inflation allo#s people/ !&sinesses/ an' go"ernments to plan for t e f&t&re/ a .ey precon'ition for sta!ility2

E@tinction

%ea'/ 08 W !enior Fello# Council on Foreign Relations

42 %imes, X-)E E3en #ith stoc5 mar5ets tottering around the #orld, the "resident and the Congress seem determined to s"end the ne/t si/ months arguing about dress stains, %oo bad, %he 9nited !tates and the #orld are facing #hat could gro# into the greatest threat to #orld "eace in +* &ears, Forget suicide car bombers and 2fghan fanatics, It8s the financial mar5ets, not the terrorist training cam"s that "ose the biggest immediate threat to #orld "eace , @o# can this be6 %hin5 about the mother of all global meltdo#nsJ the Great Ce"ression that started in 0?)?, 9,!, stoc5s began to colla"se in >ctober, staged a rall&, then the mar5et headed south big time, 2t the bottom, the Co# 'ones industrial a3erage had lost ?*_ of its 3alue, Dages "lummeted, thousands of ban5s and bro5erages #ent ban5ru"t, millions of "eo"le lost their Fobs, %here #ere similar horror stories #orld#ide, 7ut the

biggest im"act of the Ce"ression on the 9nited !tates--and on #orld histor&--#asn8t mone&, It #as bloodJ Dorld Dar II, to be e/act, %he Ce"ression brought 2dolf @itler to "o#er in German&, undermined the abilit& of moderates to
o""ose 'ose"h !talin8s "o#er in Russia, and con3inced the 'a"anese militar& that the countr& had no choice but to build an 2sian em"ire, e3en if that meant #ar #ith the 9nited !tates and 7ritain, %hat8s the thing about de"ressions, %he& aren8t Fust bad for &our .*0(51, 4et the #orld econom& crash far enough, and the rules change, We stop playing H+ e

)rice is 9ig tH an' start &p a ne# ro&n' of H(a"ing )ri"ate 9yan2H

Free +ra'e DA 1NC

*( egemony in Latin America 'e"astates free tra'e Weintra&! 4 (!idne& Deintraub -- Emeritus Dilliam E, !imon Chair in Political Econom& at the Center for !trateg& and International !tudies $%he Cost of Ci3isions Dithin 4atin 2merica$ in Issues in International Political Econom& 2ugust )**E, Number .. -csis,org-files-media-csis-"ubs-issues)**E*X,"df1 !M ***NoteF LAC is Latin American an' Cari!!ean Co&ntries I ha3e been as5ing m&self #h& the trade route to greater 42C unit& of "ur"ose is not getting much traction, %here are the ob3ious reasonsJ nationalistic desires to "rotect domestic interestsN distrust among the countries, as e/em"lified b& the disunit& discussed earlierN "olitical com"etition among them, sa&, as bet#een Me/ico and 7ra=ilN and the dis"arities among the 42C countries in si=e, trade "ro#ess, and feasible hemis"heric ambitions, %here are reasons that do not immediatel& Fum" to the surface, 7ra=il is not sure it #ants to share its hegemonic status in !outh 2merica #ith the 9nited !tatesHthe biggest hegemon of them allHshould there be a com"rehensi3e F%22, %here is considerable anti2mericanism in 4atin 2merica at the moment and this ma& be im"eding the ardor for free trade in some 42C countries , Get, ha3ing said all this, one #ould thin5 that 42C countries #ould do #hate3er the& could to assure im"ro3ed access to the 9,!, mar5et ,
%his #as Chiles "osition, and it led to Chiles free trade agreement #ith the 9nited !tates, It is the "osition of Central 2merica, the Cominican Re"ublic, Colombia, Peru, and others, Coo"erati3e "ro"osals in trade matters #ould not com"romise the so3ereignties of the 42C countries, Dhile such coo"eration could lead to greater "olitical coo"eration, this is not a

necessar& or foreordained outcome, In an& e3ent, the situation seems to be more of each countr& for itself rather than
unit& of "ur"ose in the achie3ement of #hat could be a most im"ortant agreement for most 42C countries

+ra'e eliminates t e only rational incenti"es for #ar;pro"es s&staina!ility Gart6.e 11 Eri5 Gart=5e is an associate Professor of "olitical science at the 9ni3ersit& of California, !an Ciego PhC from Io#a
and 7,2, from 9C!F $!EC9RI%G IN 2N IN!EC9RE D>R4C$ ###,cato-unbound,org-)*00-*)-*?-eri5-gart=5e-securit&-in-aninsecure-#orld2lmost as informati3e as the decline in #arfare has been #here this decline is occurring, %raditionall&, nations #ere

constrained b& o""ortunit&, Most nations did not fight most others because the& could not "h&sicall& do so, Po#erful nations, in contrast, tended to fight more often, and "articularl& to fight #ith other "o#erful states , Modern L=ones of "eaceM are dominated b& "o#erful, militaril& ca"able countries, %hese countries could fight each other, but are not inclined to do so, 2t the same time, #ea5er de3elo"ing nations
that continue to e/ercise force in traditional #a&s are inca"able of "roFecting "o#er against the de3elo"ed #orld, #ith the e/ce"tion of uncon3entional methods, such as terrorism, %he #orld is thus di3ided bet#een those #ho could use force but "refer not to (at least not against each other1 and those #ho #ould be #illing to fight but lac5 the material means to fight far from home, Darfare in the modern #orld has thus become an acti3it& in3ol3ing #ea5 (usuall& neighboring1 nations, #ith inter3ention b& "o#erful (geogra"hicall& distant1 states in a "olicing ca"acit&, !o, the riddle of "eace boils do#n to #h& ca"able nations

are not fighting each other, %here are se3eral e/"lanations, as Mac5 has "ointed out, %he easiest, and I thin5 the best, e/"lanation has to do #ith an absence of moti3e, Modern states find little incenti3e to bic5er o3er tangible "ro"ert&, since armies are e/"ensi3e and the goods that can be looted are no longer of considerable 3alue, Ironicall&, this is e/actl& the e/"lanation that Norman 2ngell famousl& su""lied before the Dorld Dars, Get, toda& the e3idence is abundant that the most "ros"erous, ca"able nations "refer to bu& rather than ta5e, Cecoloni=ation, for e/am"le, di3ested Euro"ean "o#ers of territories that #ere increasingl& e/"ensi3e to administer and #hich contained tangible assets of limited 3alue ,
>f com"arable im"ortance is the mo3e to substantial consensus among "o#erful nations about ho# international affairs should be conducted, %he great ri3alries of the t#entieth centur& #ere ideological rather than territorial, %hese ha3e been substantiall& resol3ed, as Francis Fu5u&ama has "ointed out, %he fact that remaining differences are moderate, #hile the benefits of acting in concert are large (due to economic interde"endence in "articular1 means that nations "refer to deliberate rather than fight, Cifferences remain, but for the most "art the ca"able countries of the #orld ha3e been in consensus, #hile the disgruntled de3elo"ing #orld is inca"able of acting on res"ecti3e nations dissatisfaction, Dhile this 3ersion of e3ents e/"lains the "artial "eace besto#ed on the de3elo"ed #orld, it also "oses challenges in terms of the future, %he rising nations of 2sia in "articular ha3e not been eBual beneficiaries in the #orld "olitical s&stem, %hese nations ha3e benefited from economic integration, and this has "ro3ed sufficient in the "ast to "acif& them, %he Buestion for the future is #hether the benefits of tangible

resources through mar5ets are sufficient to com"ensate the rising "o#ers for their lac5 of influence in the "olic& s"here, %he danger is that established "o#ers ma& be slo# to accommodate or gi3e #a& to the
demands of rising "o#ers from 2sia and else#here, leading to di3isions o3er the intangible domain of "olic& and "olitics, >"timists

argue that at the same time that these nations are rising in "o#er, their domestic situations are e3ol3ing in a #a& that ma5es their interests more similar to the Dest, Consumerism, democrac&, and a mar5et orientation all hel" to dra# the rising "o#ers in as fello# tra3elers in an e/"anding =one of "eace among the de3elo"ed nations, Pessimists argue instead that ca"abilities among the rising "o#ers are gro#ing faster than their affinit& for #estern 3alues, or e3en that fundamental differences e/ist among the interests of first- and second-#a3e "o#ers that cannot be bridged b& the "resence of mar5et mechanisms or McConalds restaurants, If the "eace obser3ed among #estern, de3elo"ed nations is to "ro3e durable, it must be because #arfare "ro3es futile as nations transition to "ros"erit&, Dhether this #ill ha""en de"ends on the rate of change in interests and ca"abilities, a difficult thing to Fudge, De

must ho"e that the o"timistic 3ie# is correct, that #hat ended #ar in Euro"e can be e/"orted globall&, Pros"erit& has made #ar e/"ensi3e, #hile the fruits of conflict, both in terms of tangible and intangible s"oils ha3e declined in 3alue, %hese forces are not guaranteed to "re3ail indefinitel&, 2lread&, research on robotic #arfare "romises to lo#er the cost of conBuest, If in addition, fundamental differences among ca"able communities arise, then #arfare o3er ideolog& or "olic& can also be resurrected, De must all ho"e that the consolidating forces of "ros"erit& "re3ail, that #ar becomes a durable anachronism,

Genoci'e DA 1NC
*( infl&ence in Latin America ca&ses genoci'e Marcia Espar6a, @enr& R, H&tten!ac , an' Caniel Feierstein, 1? - (Es"ar=a1 PhC in !ociolog& at the 9ni3ersit& at 2lban&, (@uttenbach1 Professor in the @istor& Ce"artment of the Cit& College of the Cit& 9ni3ersit& of Ne# Gor5, and (Feierstein1 Cirector of the Centre for Genocide !tudies at the National 9ni3ersit& of %res de Febrero, 2rgentina (L!tate :iolence and Genocide in 4atin 2mericaJ %he Cold Dar Gears,M htt"sJ--catal&st,librar&,Fhu,edu-catalog-bibQEI*XIX(, Print1--@24
Get, be&ond these differences, there #as coordination in the #ar against sub3ersion,M most significantl& s"earheaded b& >"eration Condor, #hich #as launched b& then Colonel Manuel Contreras of the CIN2, Chiles state securit& agenc&, Dhile "re"aring such a mo3e, Contreras tra3eled to the 4I! to as5 for training, and subseBuentl& the Chileans benefited from 9! militar& ad3isors in counterintelligence, !ecluded from the "ublic e&e, >"eration Condor #as designed to coordinate the e/change of intelligence and the launching of combined o"erations against "olitical acti3ists in e/ile, man& of #hom #ere abducted, assassinated, or transferred for interrogation and later disa""eared, #ith the most com"lete secrec& and lac5 of accountabilit&, It ma& he claimed that, in the short term, some to" 9! officials and agencies #elcomed the initiati3e of Chile and its "artners in >"eration Condor, o3erloo5ing

the genocidal "olicies ado"ted, at least before its agents struc5 in Dashington, CC, assassinating former Chilean Foreign Minister, >rlando 4etelier and his secretar& Ronni Moffitt, a 9! citi=en, Get, in the 3ie# of se3eral 4atin 2merican high officers, the I'! #as "assi3e and not aggressi3e enough in the flight against communism during the Cold Dar I #ould accordingl& claim that, e3en ta5ing into account the training and su""ort of the 9!, one should loo5 for a no less fundamental source of con3iction of the militar& commands in their shared, albeit nuanced, belief in doctrines of national securit&, Coctrines of national securit& %hese societies, #hich in the I ?+*s and I ?(*s had e/"erienced "rocesses of massi3e "o"ular mobili=ation and increased (disordered and almost $anarchical$1 "artici"ation, #ere forcefull& demobili=ed under militar& rule, In man& cases, "olitical "arties #ere banned or their acti3ities fro=en b& decreeN
educational s&stems #ere regimented and disci"lined after maFor militar& inter3entions in the uni3ersities and school "rograms #ere resha"ed according to the ne# ideological "arameters8 hea3& censorshi" #as im"osed u"on the media and cultural e/"ression #as $"urifiedM of an& leftist orientationsJ trade unions #ere attac5ed, #ith man& of their acti3ists Failed and assassinatedJ "rofessional and entre"reneurial associations #ere co-o"ted, LcleansedM of hostile elementsN and selfHcensorshi" cr&stalli=ed as the result of a highl& re"ressi3e situation, Policies of annihilation of the radical 4eft and its su""orters #ere

carried out both domesticall& and be&ond the national borders, 7ecause of their functional role, their
formation, and their "rofessional training, the militar& sa# themsel3es as guardians of the nations 3alues and traditions, es"eciall& in times of crisis, %he National !ecurit& Coctrines, shared b& the militar& establishments of the 4atin 2merican countries in the frame#or5 of the Cold Dar, "osited a lin5 bet#een the conce"ts of nation and state, and the central role of the armed forces in connection to both, Militar& leadershi" considered itself the most Bualified and "erha"s the onl& ca"able institutional actor for achie3ing the defense and "romotion of national interests, 9nder the "olitical and institutional challenges "osed b& the generation dreaming of accom"lishing a !ocialist Re3olution, #ith grou"s of armed radical leftist guerrillas using 3iolent means to bring about a re3olution, the armed forces belie3ed the& had the right and obligation to redefine and organi=e

their nations according to the guidelines of the doctrines of national securit&, 2ccording to that doctrine, the basic 3alues of a nation are anchored organicall& #ithin Destern ci3ili=ation (inter"reted in terms of Christian 3alues1, the defense of "ri3ate "ro"ert& and initiati3e, and o""osition to communist and Mar/ist ideas, 2s Manuel 2ntonio Garret;n indicated, national unit& #as sought and inter"reted in
terms of a tradition or Lsoul,M consisting of Lfree=ing certain historical facts or uni3ersali=ing "articular features that are defined outside the freel& e/"ressed collecti3e #ill,M %he militar& leaders thought the& #ere most Bualified to channel the LtrueM national s"irit through the state machiner&, safeguarding the nation, Parado/icall& enough, this state-centric 3ision that centrali=ed the role of the state in sha"ing the direction of societ& #as also shared b& the re3olutionar& 4eft, %he organic conce"tion of the nation im"lied a binar& 3ie# of the #orld that resembled the categories of the Cold Dar, Eliminating the enem& #as the onl&

o"tion since these indi3iduals #ere considered to be be&ond redem"tion due to their irre"arable ideological and fla#ed "olitical 3ie#s (a conce"t denoted in !"anish as Irrecu"erabilidad1, 7& e/terminating these Lcontaminated cells or organs, 7oth "h&sicall& and ideologicall&, societ& could manage to retail its basic "arameters of national 3alues and traditions, If necessar&, the armed forces #ould e/tir"ate the threat, follo#ing
the ideological 3isions the& incor"orated from the French theorists of counterinsurgencies de3elo"ed in the 2lgerian #ar and reinforced b& the strong anti-communist 3isions taught in the !chool of the 2mericas and other 9! training centers of anti-guerrilla #arfare attended b& 4atin 2merican officers, %he local idioms of organicism ga3e further credibilit& to the doctrines of national securit& that stressed the "rimac& of national #ellHbeing o3er indi3idual rights, 2ccording to this logic, indi3idual rights, including the most basic human rights, should be subordinate to national aims and goals #hene3er necessar&, In 2rgentina, this 3ision

#as a guideline for eliminating the enemies of the NationN the terms used #ere organic in nature and "roFected a medical discourse that demanded the ^e/tir"ation of ill tissues from the national bod& %his hinted at the genocidal "ractices ado"ted to decimate a generation and its dreams of radical olitical change, as indicated b #riter Ricardo Piglia, >n the basis of the doctrines of national securit&, the to" commanders of the arnied forces thought their societ& 3as "enetrated b& a secluded enem& that aimed at destro&ing the moral 3alues of the nation, It is "recisel& from these doctrines that confrontation arose that made use of genocidal "ractices and a s&stematic technolog& of terror and re"ression aimed not onl& at "h&sical destruction but also at eradicating its memor& from the annals of the nation , %his led to the dehumani=ation of those detained or abducted, %hese indi3iduals #ere denied the most basic needs and brutall& tortured, #ith thousands summaril& e/ecuted and ^disa""cared, In almost contradictor& terms, the enem& #as defined in ambiguous terms that could he elasticall& broadened to include not onl& acti3e su""orters hut e3en remote s&m"athi=ers or citi=ens a"athetic enough not to !u""ort the "olicies of the
militar& go3ernments, as in the famous threat launched b& the then militar& go3ernor of the "ro3ince of 7uenos 2ires in 2rgentina during the first Funta regime, Eb<nco !aint-'eanJ LFirst #e 5ill the sub 3ersi3es then #e 5ill their collahorators then their s3m"athi=ers, then those #ho remain indifferent and finall& #e 5ill the timid, In a binar& #orld such as the one en3isioned b& the militar&, there #as no room for indecision or lac5 of full commitmentE) In such a binar& and evtreme definition of the situation, all means ere deemed legitimate in the tight against sub3ersion, Flagrant human rights 3iolations #ere ignored, #hile the armed forces claimed to ha3e sa3ed their coun9ies from being destro&ed from #ithin, ^ %he genocidal turn and 9! influence %he

confrontation #ith communism and #ith the 3ernacular forms of radical socialism generated "olicies that condoned genocidal "ractices #hene3er the& could he Fustified in terms of sa3ing the national soul and !tructure of societ& 2s a result, this confrontational 3ision, su""orted b& the National !ecurit& Coctrine and its related countennsurgenc3 methodologies led to the denial of indi3idual rights and the 5illing of thousands of indi3iduals includmg man& com"letel& unrelated to an& armed mo3ement
but onl& concerned #ith im"ro3ing life condi tions or attem"ting to "romote social Fustice, agrarian reform, healthcare, educa tion, or fair #or5ing conditions, In 2rgentina E*,*** "ersons #ere abducted and later 3anished #ithout a trace, Chile has officiall& recogrn=ed a death toll of o3er E,*** as the result of state and "oliticall& moti3ated 3iolence, >ther countries in the !outhern Cone made ase of long-term im"risonment, torture, and forced e/ile as #as t&"ical of 9rugua& and 7ra=il, In Nicaragua the National Chiard #as res"onsible for some .*,***HI*,*** murders before the fall of !omo=a Cue to the mounting "ressure in international and transnational fora in Euro"e and North 2merica, the actions of the militar& go3ernments #ere under scrutin& staffing in 0?(+ and became increasingl& so under the Caner administration Get, the "endulum shifted again to counterinsurgenc& su""ort #hen President Ronald Reagan came to office in 0?X0, Dith communist Cuba Fust to the south, and the recent trium"h of the !andinista re3olution in Nicaragua in 0?(?, the ne# administration en3isioned a !o3ietHCuban cam"aign aimed at generating a domino effect throughout Central 2merica and the Caribbean %he Reagan administration began combating the "ercei3ed threat b& de3elo"ing intenen tionist "olicies, #hich claimed to be "romoting democrac& in Central 2merica, %he "rimar& focus of these "olicies #as the destabili=ation of the !andinista go3ernment in Nicaragua and the consolidation of anti-communist "olitical ne# constitution de3ised b& Pinochets legal ad3isors, #hich created a series of authoritarian mechanisms that ensured the irre3ersibilit& of some of the main institutional and structural transformations established under the rnihtar3 regime Moreo3er, 9! "ressure had its o#n limitationsJ as Dilliam !ater stresses, General Pinochet "ro3ed to be ca"able of sideste""ing Carters human rights stance, Moreo3er, Dashingtons efforts to isolate Chile achie3ed its goals in antagoni=ing (wencral Pinochet, 2fter a #hile, the Pinochet regime critici=ed Dashington for Lnot ta5ing the lead in a #orld crusade against communism, L 9nder Reagan, man& of Carters actions #ere annulled, as Reagan ad3ocated a Buiet di"lomac& to#ard Chile, 0E3 the late l?a>s, the domestic and interna tional "ressure against Pinochet contributed to the acceleration of the "rotracted 3et "lanned transition hac5 to democrac&, 3et under the constitutional terms of the I ?a* charter that secured authoritarian encla3es and the maintenance of the economic model in the democratic "eriod starting in 0??*, In the case of 2rgentina, the "ressures of the Carter administration in the 0?(*s onl& marginall& im"acted the Funtas genocidal "ractices, First, Kissinger ga3e his su""ort for the goals and methods of the Ldirt& #ar,M #ithout critici=mg its re"ressi3e methods, at the 3er& same time that the 9! administration #as "raising the economic direction of the de facto go3ernment, !econd, the militar& Funta mo3ed to "roFect a false international image of res"ect lor human rights in 2rgentina, in the belief that the& could o3ercome its critics, that Cold Dar o"tics #ould "re3ail, and that Carter meant onl& a tem"orar& shill in 9! "olic&, %hird, #hile 2rgentina su""orted the 9! on disarmament issues, it reinforced interna- tional relationshi"s #ith Cuba, Gugosla3ia, and other nonHaligned states, %he Cubans claimed to understand the need for militar& inter3ention in 2rgentina and the !o3iets did not "ut "ressure on 2rgentina due to their o#n human rights record, 2 series of miscalculations H the last of #hich #as the Mal3inas-Fal5 lands #ar H ser3ed to undemiine the ca"acit& of the 2rgentine regime to institu tionali=e itself on lines resembling the Chilean success stor3 It is, ho#e3er, unclear #hether the end of militar& training "rograms in 2rgentina in 0?(( and of sales of militar& eBui"ment 0# the 9! had a serious im"act on human rights "olicies 2lthough the figures of 3anished indi3iduals declined 0# 0?(X, it #as also clear 0# then that the radical 4eu had been annihilated and the 2rgentinean Funta continued to "ursue its re"ressi3e "olicies, including the mission of miliH tar3 ad3isors training counterinsurgenc& forces in El !al3ador and Central 2merica hct3ecn 0?(X and I ?X), EBuall& im"ortant to consider is the training recei3ed b& 4atin

2merican high officers and soldiers at the !chool of (lie 2mericas, or !>2, %he !chool #as originall& established in the Panama Canal ]one b& the t'! in 0?.+, catering since 0?.? to 4atin 2merican students, %he 9! o"ened the door to 4atin 2merican alliances b& moderni=ing outdated militar& eBui"ment and offering courses on 9! #ea"onr&, In this #a&, 4atin 2merican militaries became de"endent on re"lacing and "urchasing #ea"ons from the 9!, guaranteeing 4atin 2merican allies and also an increased mar5et fo r the 9!

#ea"onr& industr&, 2fter the Cuban re3olulion, (lie !chool changed into the !chool of the 2mericas, #hich o"ened in 0?+E, It mo3ed to Fort @enning, Georgia, in 0?a. and o"erated there until its re"lacement b& the Destern I lemis"here Institute for !ecurit& Coo"era tion in )**0, %he ohiecti3e of the !>2 included the discouragement of an& t&"e of leftist "o#er in 4atin 2merica, "articularl& "o#er ins"ired b& the !o3iets or the Cubans, Iiicreasingl3, the !92 launched #itch-hunts to e/"el and "unish leftleaning ci3ilians #ho #ere su""osed communist threats, 2ccordingl&, the curnculum of the !92 centered on countennsilrgenc3 o"erations, >fficiall&, the school #as attem"ting to Lcreate "rofessional soldiers,M #hile encouraging 4atin 2mericans to learn from the modem, "rofessional li! forces, !imilarl&, the !92 taught courses that encouraged 3alues such as a free democrac& and a stable econom& in a L#ell organi=ed societ&,M.* In "ractice, the !92 indoctrinated the militar& stud&ing there to re"ress left-leaning ci3ilians #ho #ere su""osed com munist threats, 2ccordingl&, the cumculum of the !92 centered on counterH insurgenc& o"erations, 2 re3ie# of training manuals "re"ared 0# the 9! militar& and used bet#een 0?a( and 0??0 Ibr intelligence training courses in 4atin 2merica and at the !92 re3eals, according to a first-hand anal&sis, that the& ad3ocatedJ tactics such as e/ecuting guerrillas, hlaclmail, false im"risonment, "h&sical ahuse, use of truth serum to obtain information and "a&ment of bounties for enenn dead, Countermielligence agents ai-e F#ereF ad3ised that one of their functions is Lrecommending targets for neutrali=atxon,M a terni #hich is defined in one manual as Ldetaining or discreditingM hut #hich L#as cornH monl& used at the time as a eu"hemism for esecution or destruction,M according to a Pentagon official (Dashington Post, !e"tember )0 , 0 ??+1, Dhat is not included in these escer"ts, ho#e3er, is the larger contest %he se3en arm manuals trainFedF 4atin 2merican militaries to infiltrate and s"& u"on ci3ilians, including student grou"s, unions, charitable organi=ations and "olitical "ai0ies to confuse armed insurgencies #ith legal "olitical o""osition and to disregard or get around an& la#s regarding due "rocess, arrest and detention,00 %he training

manuals did not differentiate bet#een guerilla insurgents and "eaceful ci3ilian "rotestors ,
2mbiguit& #as ensconced in the !>2 training manuals, according to #hich a target #as Lsomeone that could be hostile or not,M Further more, there #as e/"licit instruction on the art ot L#heedling,M the !>2 term for an

inhumane set of interrogation techniBues, >ther torture mechanisms recommended b& the manuals #ere
L"rolonged constraint, "rolonged esertion, estremes of heat, cold, or moisture, de"ri3ation of food or slee", disru"ting rou tines, solitar& confinement, threats of "ain, de"ri3ation of sensor stimuli, h3"H nosis, and use of drugs or "lacebos, Le Graduates of the !>2 ha3e been im"licated in massi3e human rights 3iola tions, In El !al3ador, more than half of all officers cited flr human rights 3iola tions iii a maFor massacre, including XE "ercent ol those im"licated in the massacre of El Mo=ote, #ere graduates of !>2, %he 9N %ruth Commission re"ort of March 0??E found that t#o of the three assassins of 2rchbisho" >scar Romero H also im"licated in other human rights ahuses, including the organi=a- lion of death sBuads H had been graduates of the !>2 In Nicaragua, Father Fer nando Cardenal indicted )+ members of the Nicaraguan Guardia #ith human rights 3iolations including torture, the use of electric shoc5, and ra"e, >f the )+ accused, )I #ere graduates of the !>2, 2mong reno#ned graduates of !>2 #ere General I lugo llan=er #ho ruled 7oli3ia bet#een 0?( 0 and I ?(a, Colom bian General llernAn 'os< Gu=mAn Rodrigue=, about #hom it is claimed that he rrotected and aided a "aramilitar& death sBuad, M2!, bet#een 0?a( and 0??*, res"onsible for the deaths of nearl& I!> indi3idualsN >mar %orriFos and Manuel Noriega of Panama, Rafael :idela, Roberto :iola and 4eo"oldo (ialtieri of 2rgentina, 0himberto Regalado @ernAnde= of @onduras, and Manuel 2ntonio CalleFas of (wuatemala, !ome of these graduates and others #ere inscribed in the @all of Fame of !>2, leading critics ol the school to claim that 0f the !>2 held an alumni meeting, it #ould bring together some of the most unsa3or& thugs in the hemis"here,. Members of the 4atin 2merican armed forces #ere attracted to the !>2 for 3arious reasons, Man& considered tra3eling abroad a 3alued "er5 or attendance at the !chool a sine Buci non for rising in the rat5s once bac5 in the home countr&, !tudents did not attend !(12 because of their desire to further human rights or "romote democrac& in their home nation, In fact, students had a "oor understanding and lac5 of regard for human rights, considering it a nuisance or focus of Fo5es due to the sharing of e/"eriences #ith fello# militar& officers, the mutual reinforcement ol attitudes "redicating the use of 3iolent means #as "robabl& reinforced, >ne should conclude that the !>2 e/"erience "robabl& increased the li5elihood of human rights 3iolations being follo#ed b& its gradu ates as "art of the cam"aign against the radical 4eft and its su""orters, ConclusionJ !tudents of international relations ha3e obser3ed #ith "er"le/it& that during the Cold Dar

"eriod, 9! leaders #ere ^tr&ing to reconcile the irreconcilable b& embracing re"ressi3e and corru"t elites #hile simultaneousl& attem"ting to foster democrac& and social Fustice,M %his #as not a stor& of deceit, It rather reflected a crucial contradiction in 9! "olic& during the Cold Dar, Interested in curtailing the ad3ance of the re3olutionar& 4eft and radical insurgenc& in the 2mericas, the 9! interest #as to find allies interested in su""orting the same liberal democratic "rinci"les dear to 2merican citi=ens, starting #ith the rule of la# and indi3idual rights, @o#e3er, 9! "olicies of bac5ing, training, and strengthening the armed forces in 4atin 2merica encouraged the forceful ta5eo3er of "o#er and the ado"tion of counterinsurgenc& methods that tore a"art these societies, undermined the rule of la#, and "roduced some of the most atrocious records of crimes against humanit& , + e impact to genoci'e transcen's mass 'eat ---it 'epri"es life of meaning an' re1&ires an et ical response Car' 74 - "rof, of "hilo, Ph,C from @ar3ard, !r, Fello# ` the Institute for Research in the @umanities ZClaudia, Dinter )**E, @&"atia, $Genocide and !ocial Ceath,$, 3ol, 0X k 0R Genocide is not sim"l& unFust (although it certainl& is unFust1N it is also e3il, It characteristicall& includes the one-sided 5illing of defenseless ci3ilians H babies, children, the elderl&, the sic5, the disabled, and the inFured of both genders along #ith their usuall& female careta5ersH sim"l& on the basis of their national, religious, ethnic, or other "olitical identit&, It targets "eo"le on the basis of #ho the& are rather than on the basis of #hat the& ha3e done, #hat the& might do, e3en #hat the& are ca"able of doing, (>ne commentator sa&s genocide 5ills "eo"le

on the basis of #hat the& are, not e3en #ho the& are1, Genocide is a "aradigm of #hat Israeli "hiloso"her 23ishai Margalit (0??+1 calls $indecent$ in that it not onl& destro&s 3ictims but first humiliates them b& deliberatel& inflicting an $utter loss of freedom and control o3er one8s 3ital interests$ (00I1, :ital interests can be transgenerational and thus sur3i3e one8s death, 7efore death,

genocide 3ictims are ordinaril& de"ri3ed of control o3er 3ital transgenerational interests and more immediate 3ital interests, %he& ma& be literall& stri""ed na5ed, robbed of their last "ossessions, lied to about the most 3ital matters, #itness to the murder of famil&, friends, and neighbors, made to "artici"ate in their o#n murder, and if female, the& are li5el& to be also 3iolated se/uall&,( :ictims of genocide are commonl& 5illed #ith no regard for lingering suffering or e/"osure, %he&, and their cor"ses, are routinel& treated #ith utter disres"ect, %hese historical facts, not sim"l& mass murder, account for much of the moral o""robrium attaching to the conce"t of genocide ,

Get such atrocities, it ma& be argued, are alread& #ar crimes, if conducted during #artime, and the& can other#ise or also be "rosecuted as crimes against humanit&, Dh&, then, add the s"ecific crime of genocide6 Dhat, if an&thing, is not alread& ca"tured b& la#s that "rohibit such things as the ra"e, ensla3ement, torture, forced de"ortation, and the degradation of indi3iduals6 Is an& ethicall& distinct harm done to members of the targeted grou" that #ould not ha3e been done had the& been targeted sim"l& as indi3iduals rather than because of their grou" membershi"6 %his is the Buestion that I find central in arguing that genocide is

not sim"l& reducible to mass death, to an& of the other #ar crimes, or to the crimes against humanit& Fust enumerated, I belie3e the ans#er is affirmati3eJ the harm is ethicall& distinct, although on the Buestion of #hether it is #orse, I #ish onl& to Buestion the assum"tion that it is not , !"ecific to genocide is the harm inflicted on its 3ictims8 social 3italit&, It is not Fust that one8s grou" membershi" is the occasion for harms that are definable inde"endentl& of one8s identit& as a member of the grou", Dhen a grou" #ith its o#n cultural identit& is destro&ed, its sur3i3ors lose their cultural heritage and ma& e3en lose their intergenerational connections, %o use >rlando Patterson8s terminolog&, in that e3ent, the& ma& become $sociall& dead$ and their descendants
$natall& alienated,$ no longer able to "ass along and build u"on the traditions, cultural de3elo"ments (including languages1, and "roFects of earlier generations (0?X), IW?1, %he harm of social death is not necessaril& less e/treme than that

of "h&sical death, !ocial death can e3en aggra3ate "h&sical death b& ma5ing it indecent, remo3ing all res"ectful and caring ritual, social connections, and social conte/ts that are ca"able of ma5ing d&ing bearable and e3en of ma5ing one8s death meaningful, In m& 3ie#, the s"ecial e3il of genocide lies in its infliction of not Fust "h&sical death (#hen it does that1 but social death, "roducing a conseBuent meaninglessness of one8s life and e3en of its termination,

Glo!al Insta!ility DA 1NC

+rying to ta.e control of Latin America t reatens *( primacy an' glo!al sta!ility 5lare"as 0 (4ouis Klare3as W "rofessor at the Center for Global 2ffairs at Ne# Gor5 9ni3ersit& W L!ecuring 2merican Primac& Dhile %ac5ling Climate ChangeJ %o#ard a National !trateg& of Greengemon&M W Cecember 0Ith, )**? htt"J--###,huffington"ost,com-louis5lare3as-securing-american-"rimac&QbQE?E))E,html1 !M Dith the im"ending s&stemic crisis of global #arming on the hori=on, the 9,!, again finds itself in a "osition to address a transnational "roblem in a #a& that #ill benefit both the international communit& collecti3el& and the 9,!, selfishl&, %he current "roblem is t#o-fold, First, the com"etition for oil is fueling animosities bet#een the maFor "o#ers, %he geo"olitics of oil has alread& emboldened Russia in its 8near abroad8 and China in far-off "laces li5e 2frica and 4atin 2merica, 2s oil is a limited natural resource, a nast& =ero-sum contest could be looming on the hori=on for the 9,!, and its maFor "o#er ri3als - a contest #hich threatens 2merican "rimac& and global stabilit&, !econd, con3erting fossil fuels li5e oil to run national economies is "roducing irre3ersible
harm in the form of carbon dio/ide emissions, !o long as the global econom& remains oil-de"endent, greenhouse gases #ill continue to rise, E/"erts are "redicting as much as a +*_ increase in carbon dio/ide emissions in the ne/t t#ent&-fi3e &ears, %hat li5el& means more de3astating #ater shortages, droughts, forest fires, floods, and storms, In other #ords , if global com"etition

for access to energ& resources does not undermine international securit&, global #arming #ill ,
2nd in either case, oil #ill be a cul"rit for the instabilit&,

Anti-Americanism an' C a"e6 ascen'ancy ca&se' !y eg accesses e"ery impacts atters sta!ility glo!ally an' ca&ses in'epen'ent great po#er #ar Coronel > (Gusta3o Coronel -- "ublic "olic& e/"ert, "re3ious member of :ene=uelan Congress, ad3isor of Petroleum#orld, !e"tember 0Xth, )**( L2 "ossible "olitical scenario for 4atin 2mericaM htt"J--mue3ete,#ord"ress,com- )**(-*?-0X-a-"ossible- "olitical-scenario-for-latinamerica-)**(-)*0)-,1 !M !till, there is no doubt that there are strong efforts being made b& some 4atin 2merican "olitical leaders to harass the 9nited !tates, If these efforts intensif& and ta5e root, 4atin 2merica could become a geopolitical ot spot in the mid-term, %he starting "oint of the anti-9,!, 2lliance, Essentiall& the current threats
against 9,!, national securit& originated about nine &ears ago #ith the "olitical alliance bet#een Fidel Castro, the Cuban dictator and @ugo Cha3e=, the :ene=uelan strongman, %his is a s&mbiotic relationshi" that has been "ro3iding Fidel Castro #ith mone& and @ugo Cha3e= #ith brains, %he strateg& chosen b& this alliance is based on t#o facts and one 3er& "artial truth, %he t#o facts areJ e/treme "o3ert& and e/treme ineBualit& in the region, %he 3er& "artial truth is that these t#o afflictions are the result of 9,!, e/"loitation of the regions natural resources aided b& the s&stematic "olitical inter3ention of this countr& in the internal affairs of the countries of the hemis"here, %o blame our o#n misfortunes and inadeBuacies on someone else has been an old and "ro3en method to gain ade"ts and to stir hate and /eno"hobia among 4atin 2merican societies, %his is #hat Fidel Castro has done for the last fort& &ears and this is #hat he has recommended to @ugo Cha3e= , a line of action that the :ene=uelan strongman has embraced #ith enthusiasm, @ugo Cha3e=s strategies, %o do this he has been aided b& significant amounts of mone& deri3ed from oil e/"orts, Curing the last nine &ears about [))* billion of oil mone& ha3e entered the :ene=uelan national treasur& #hile national debt has tri"led to about [+I billion, %his amount of mone& has been mostl& s"ent in three areasJ (a1, social "rograms of a tem"orar& nature, reall& handouts, to the :ene=uelan "oorN (b1, the acBuisition of #ea"onsN and (c1, subsidies, donations and "romises to 4atin 2merican countries in order to consolidate "olitical alliances and establish "olitical I>9s, 2t least [.* billion ha3e gone into the third categor&, an amount roughl& eBui3alent to )-E_ of :ene=uelas &earl& GCP during the last nine &ears, 2s a result of these strategies the Fidel Castro-@ugo Cha3e= a/is has been able to ma5e some "rogress in its "olitical obFecti3es of eroding the "olitical standing of the 9nited !tates in the hemis"here and, e3en, of gaining su""orters in the 9,!, "olitical scene, 7& financing the "residential cam"aigns in se3eral countries the& ha3e been able to hel" E3o Morales, Caniel >rtega and Rafael Correa #in the "residencies of 7oli3ia, Nicaragua and Ecuador, 2t the same time the& sa# their fa3ored candidates >llanta @umala, in Peru, and 2ndres 4o"e= >brador, in Me/ico lose close elections #hile remaining "oliticall& strong, es"eciall& 4o"e= >brador, In "arallel @ugo Cha3e=s maFor inFection of mone& into 2rgentina has hel"ed President Nestor Kirchner to Foin the anti-9,!, club, a mo3e for #hich he did not need strong incenti3es, %his is all #ell 5no#n although generall& "ercei3ed #ith indifference, s&m"ath&, and tolerance or, e3en, amusement, in hemis"heric "olitical circles, Man& celebrate secretl& the harassment of such a strong "o#er b& smaller, #ea5er countries, >thers are sitting on the "olitical fence, recei3ing "olitical and material benefits b& "la&ing one side against the other, !till others ha3e a #ea5 s"ot in their ideological hearts for authoritarian regimes and resent the hard sale of democrac& being done b& the 9,!, all o3er the #orld, 2 fe# e3en laugh at the colorful antics of President Cha3e= and ha3e a hard time ta5ing him seriousl&, @o#e3er, "olitical harassment of the 9nited !tates re"resents Fust one as"ect in a "ossible #ider "lan, 4ater stages might include actual economic aggression and, e3en, "h&sical action against the northern Lem"ireM, For the time being the main efforts are directed to#ards the consolidation of the alliance, %o do thisJ s Cha3e= is "ro3iding mone& to members of the 2rmed Forces of 7oli3ia and to cit& ma&ors, in order to increase "olitical control o3er these im"ortant 7oli3ian sectors ()1N s Cha3e= could be funneling mone& into 2rgentina to "romote the candidac& of Mrs, Cristina Kirchner (E1N s %he aid gi3en b& Cha3e= to Nicaragua

alread& amounts to about [I** million and, if he follo#s through in his "romise, #ill include the financing of a [) billion refiner&N s %he economic ties of :ene=uela and Ecuador are increasing 3ia the oil industr&, although President Correas ideolog& alread& includes a significant com"onent of resentment against the 9nited !tates, s Cha3e= is conducting a strateg& of alignment #ith "olitical sectors in the 9nited !tates that o""ose the current go3ernment "olicies, For some of these sectors the desire to erode the current administration has "ro3en greater than their lo3e for democrac&, %he enem& of their enem& has become their friend (.1, 2lmost all of these strategic initiati3es b& the Castro-Cha3e= alliance sho# an alternati3e, unfa3orable outcome, s 7oli3ia is in the threshold of a maFor "olitical crisis, due to the reluctance of im"ortant sectors of the countr& to roll o3er and "la& dead to Moraless "retensions to im"ose the :ene=uelan Constituent 2ssembl& model that ended #ith the :ene=uelan democrac& becoming an authoritarian regime, s Mrs, Kirchner, e3en if she #on, as it seems to be the case, might decide to go her se"arate #a&s, !he has alread& gi3en some indications that 2rgentina should not become a sim"le "a#n of Castro- Cha3e= in the struggle for hemis"heric "olitical leadershi", Recent e3ents ha3e con3inced her that Cha3e=s su""ort "robabl& re"resents a 5iss of death for her "olitical future, s In Ecuador, Correa is alread& loo5ing at the 7oli3ian "olitical turmoil #ith caution, as he does not #ant to re"eat Moraless errors and reali=es that Cha3e=s success in :ene=uela has been due to his dee" "oc5ets rather than his charisma, Correa does not ha3e the mone& or the charisma of Cha3e=, s In the 9nited !tates the indi3iduals and grou"s that su""ort Cha3e= are doing so out of "ersonal material or "olitical interest and ha3e been largel& reFected b& "ublic o"inion, It seems im"robable that the alliance of these countries, almost entirel& based on mone& and resentment against the 9nited !tates, could last for long, Dhat if this alliance falters6 %he main motors of the anti-9, ! alliance , Castro and Cha3e=, understand that this strateg& of

"rogressi3e "olitical harassment of the 9nited !tates might not succeed 2 %he defeat of 4o"e= >brador in Me/ico robbed them of a maFor all& in this strateg& , In "o#er 4o"e= >brador #ould ha3e "romoted illegal
immigration into the 9,!, creating numerous "oints of social and "olitical conflict along the #ea5 9,!,- Me/ican border, 2s it stands toda& %he 9nited !tates has se3eral #a&s to #ea5en Castro-Cha3e= strategies, In fact, the imminent death of Fidel Castro has "racticall& eliminated much of the brain com"onent of this a/is, @ugo Cha3e= is in need of an alternati3e "lan, %he alternati3e is an alliance #ith fundamentalist grou"s or countries that share @ugo Cha3e=s resentment against the 9nited !tates, %his e/"lains the a""ro/imation of @ugo Cha3e= to Iranian President 2hmadineFad, 7oth leaders ha3e an anti-9,!, global alliance as one of their main obFecti3es, %heir main #ea"on is oil or, rather, #hat the& can do to the international oil mar5et, in case the& decided to sus"end e/"orts of this resource, !ome . million barrels of oil "er da& #ould be out of the su""l& s&stem, causing a maFor disru"tion in the #orlds econom&, %he& figure that in such a situation the& ha3e less to lose than the 9nited !tates and its industriali=ed allies, 7ut oil is not their onl& #ea"on, %he& also ha3e a "olitical #ea"on to resort to, It has to do #ith

the concerted action of terrorist grou"s such as @e=bollah and F2RC, assisted b& 3iolent indigenous grou"s such as those in 7oli3ia, Peru and Ecuador and sociall& turbulent grou"s li5e the illegal immigrants alread& li3ing in the 9nited !tates, 7& "romoting the action of these grou"s against the 9nited !tates and its 4atin 2merican and Euro"ean allies these grou"s can 'o m&c arm to glo!al political sta!ility2 In this scenario one the main "romoters of this action #ould not be located in the Middle East or in the Far East but in 4atin 2merica, %his #ould be the first time in histor&, as far as #e can tell, that a 4atin 2merican "olitical leader becomes a ma=or t reat to #orl' sta!ility2

LA Insta!ility DA 1NC
Latin American sta!ility no# solely !eca&se t e *nite' (tates as left t e region Cran'all 11 W 2ssociate Professor of International Politics at Ca3idson College and the author of %he 9nited !tates and 4atin 2merica 2fter the Cold Dar, @e #as Princi"al Cirector for the Destern @emis"here at the 9,!, Ce"artment of Cefense in )**? and Cirector for 2ndean 2ffairs at the National !ecurit& Council in )*0*-00 (Russell, LPost-2merican @emis"hereJ Po#er and Politics in an 2utonomous 4atin 2merica,M Foreign 2ffairs, ?*,E (Ma&'une )*001J "XE, htt"J--heinonline,org-@>4-Page6 handleOhein,Fournals-fora?*Pdi3O.?PgQsentO01--@24

For much of the t#entieth centur&, there #as a disconnect bet#een Dashington8s loft& rhetoric of democrac& and regional harmon& and its demonstrated #illingness to Fettison these "rinci"les #hen its economic or geo"olitical interests #ere at sta5e, E3en after the Cold Dar, the 9nited !tates #as accused of "eddling its $Dashington consensus$ of laisse=-faire economic "olicies, such as the "ri3ati=ation of state-o#ned assets and freetrade agreements, as a sort of neoim"erialism, Instead of 9,!, marines or CI2 agents, blame for doing the em"ire8s bidding #as no# "inned on the $technocratic im"erialists$ from the Dorld 7an5, the International Monetar& Fund, and the 9,!, %reasur& Ce"artment, Get o3er the "ast decade or so, the 9nited !tates8 #illingness and abilit& to e/ert control in the region ha3e diminished, %his has occurred in "art because more im"ortant issues, including the #ars in 2fghanistan and IraB, ha3e forced 4atin 2merica do#n the "olic&ma5ing food chain, 7ut there is also the indis"utable realit& that the region itself is no# more confident acting on its o#n, For the most "art, this #as ine3itable, gi3en the end of e/ternal and local communist challenges and the shift to an increasingl& multilateral #orld that had room for ne# "o#ers, 4atin

2merica8s greater autonom& is

both a cause and a result of decreased 9,!, influence,

%he 9nited !tates8 relationshi" #ith 7oli3ia "ro3ides one e/am"le of Dashington8s declining "o#er in the region, 7elie3ing that it #as time to "a& bac5 the 2mericans for their &ears of bac5ing his "olitical o""onents, 7oli3ian President E3o Morales e/"elled the 9,!, ambassador and the 9,!, Crug Enforcement 2dministration in )**X and sus"ended 9,!,-funded democrac& "rograms the follo#ing &ear, 2 decade or so ago, #hen 7oli3ia #as a faithful client of the 9nited !tates, it #ould ha3e been unimaginable for a 7oli3ian go3ernment to e3en consider such acts, gi3en the di"lomatic and financial conseBuences of "ro3o5ing Dashington8s ire, Get e3en the ostensibl& hard-line George D, 7ush administration res"onded to Morales8 re"eated di"lomatic insults largel& #ith silence, Morales had gone e&eball to e&eball #ith Dashington and li3ed to tell about it, In the late 0?X*s and 0??*s, after decades of rule b& militar& dictatorshi"s, the countries of 4atin 2merica became "art of the $third #a3e$ of democrati=ation that #as then #ashing across the globe, Get the region struggled to con3ert democratic "ractices, such as o"en elections, into lasting democratic institutions, such as inde"endent Fudiciaries, Mean#hile, economic instabilit&, including chronic bouts of h&"erinflation, made man& 4atin 2mericans #onder if the& had not been better off under the relati3el& enlightened mano dura (strong hand1 regimes of the "ast, E3en in the 0??*s, #hen 4atin 2merica finall& began to sla& inflation and re"lace it #ith im"ressi3e macroeconomic stabilit&, countries had difficult& translating this into lasting social gains for the entire "o"ulation, 2t times, 4atin 2mericans used their ne#found electoral "o#er to elect $democratic "o"ulists,$ such as :ene=uela8s Cha3e= and Peru8s 2lberto FuFimori, #ho often go3erned in autocratic #a&s, In recent &ears, ho#e3er, 4atin

2merica8s gro#th has begun to translate into more "ros"erous and

de3elo"ed societies, In countries as dis"arate as 7ra=il, Me/ico, and Peru, the benefits of

democrac& and o"en mar5ets are no# finall& beginning to tric5le do#n to a citi=enr& that had lost faith in elected go3ernments, %his socioeconomic "ros"erit&, in turn, is legitimi=ing the democratic s&stem--a sort of 3irtuous c&cle in a region more accustomed to 3icious ones, Ces"ite #hat the fier& rhetoric of leaders such as Cha3e= might indicate, in toda&8s climate, 4atin 2mericans #ant results, not blame, 2rmed re3olution is no# dead in the region that #as once its cradle, In its stead, the region no# has a ne# brand of leaders #ho ha3e ta5en office through the ballot bo/ and ha3e stri3en to "ro3ide education, securit&, and o""ortunities for their constituents, @uman ca"ital and economic com"etiti3eness, not rote antica"italist slogans, are #hat occu"& the thoughts of these "oliticians, %he& "oint "roudl& to the fact that .* million 4atin 2mericans #ere lifted out of "o3ert& bet#een )**) and )**X, a feat accom"lished largel& through inno3ati3e and homegro#n social "rograms, It has long been said that #hen the 9nited !tates catches a cold, 4atin 2merica catches the flu, %his has certainl& been true in the economic realm, #here Fitters in the 9,!, econom& could Buic5l& undermine 4atin

during the recent global economic crisis, 4atin 2merica remained relati3el& unscathed, 2t the time, man& "redicted that 4atin 2merican go3ernments -es"eciall& leftist ones
2merica8s chronicall& #ea5 financial and fiscal fundamentals, 7ut sus"ected of being more "redis"osed to fiscal "rofligac&--#ould turn to the seducti3e tonic of "o"ulism, 7ut leftist go3ernments in 7ra=il, Chile, and 9rugua&, to name a fe#, res"onded to the crisis #ith "rudence, %he& refused to abandon mar5et-friendl& "olicies such as fle/ible e/change rates, inde"endent central ban5s, and fiscal restraint, !ome countries, such as 7ra=il and Peru, e3en continued to gro# at almost China-li5e rates, In the "ast, #hen 4atin 2merica #as in economic trouble, outsiders "rescribed bitter medicine, such as se3ere fiscal austerit& measures, In the last se3eral &ears, ho#e3er, the

region has sho#n that it can address its o#n "roblems, e3en e/"orting its solutions globall&, %here is no greater e/am"le of the region8s autonom& in economic "olic&ma5ing than 7ra=il8s 7olsa Familia or

Me/ico8s >"ortunidades, conditional cash-transfer "rograms that gi3e mone& to "oor families if the& meet certain reBuirements, such as enrolling their children in school, 2s the Dorld 7an5 has noted, 7olsa Familia targets the 0) million 7ra=ilians #ho des"eratel& need the assistanceN most of the mone& is used to bu& food, school su""lies, and clothes for children, %he "rogram is also credited #ith hel"ing reduce 7ra=il8s notoriousl& high income ineBualit&, %he 7ra=ilian and Me/ican efforts ha3e been #idel& emulated outside the region, including in the 9nited !tates, 2nother e/am"le is Chile8s creation of a rain&-da& fund, filled #ith national sa3ings from the countr&8s co""er "roduction, %his [0),X billion account ga3e Chile a le3el of "olic& fle/ibilit& during the recent global economic do#nturn that the 9nited !tates and man& other industrial economies could onl& en3&, 2s 4atin 2merica8s achie3ements suggest, the

region is gro#ing u" fast, P>DER P42G! 4atin 2merica8s economic gro#th and "olitical stabilit& are dri3ing an un"recedented "o#er shift #ithin the region, Countries are reassessing their interests and alliances, and the more confident among them are fle/ing their muscles, Instead of loo5ing to Dashington for guidance, 4atin 2merican countries are increasingl& #or5ing among themsel3es to conduct di"lomac&, "ursue shared obFecti3es, and, at times, e3en s"ar5 ne# ri3alries, 7ra=il8s emergence as a serious "o#er is a direct result of the

increasing absence of 9,!, influence in the region, !ensing an o""ortunit& to gain the regional stature that has long eluded it, the countr& has begun to act more asserti3el&, 7ut com"licating 7ra=il8s "o#er "la& is the reaction from its fello# 4atin 2merican nations, Colombian, Me/ican, and Peru3ian officials, among others, tal5 "ri3atel& about their disli5e of 7ra=il8s arrogant di"lomac&, In some Buarters, 7ra=il8s res"onses to de3elo"ments such as Cha3e=8s ongoing assault on :ene=uela8s democrac& and e3en the )**? cou" in @onduras ha3e undermined its credibilit& as a serious leader,

(7rasilia8s reluctance to s"ea5 out for hemis"heric democrac& is "articularl& ine/cusable for a go3ernment that includes man& officials #ho suffered under the successi3e militar& regimes of the 0?+*s, 0?(*s, and 0?X*s,1

*( eg forces co&ps # ic 'esta!li6es all of Latin America + yne/ 1? W Professor in the Ce"artment of Political !cience, 9ni3ersit& of Kentuc5&, Ph,C,, Political !cience, 9ni3ersit& of Io#a, )**( (Cla&ton 4,, 'ournal of Peace Research, L!u""orter of stabilit& or agent of agitation6 %he effect of 9! foreign "olic& on cou"s in 4atin 2merica, 0?+*W ??,M htt"J--F"r,sage"ub,com-content-.(-.-..?1--@24
IntroductionS >n E No3ember 0?(*, Chiles !al3ador 2llende became the S first democraticall& elected Mar/ist head of state in the histor&S of 4atin 2merica, Fearing a s"read of 4eft-leaning leadershi" S across the continent, President Ni/on ta""ed @enr& KissingerS to lead a concentrated effort to oust 2llende from "o#er b&S su""l&ing anti-2llende "oliticians and media #ith co3ert S funds, building alliances #ith militar& officers, a""l&ing S di"lomatic "ressure, and #or5ing to den& Chile international S financial assistance (Kornbluh, 0???1, In more gra"hic terms,S recentl& released CI2 documents confirm that Ni/on orderedS the CI2 to ^ma5e the econom& scream in order to unseat theS democraticall& elected "resident (CI2, 0?(*1, 2fter three &ears S of intense "ressure, the 2llende go3ernment #as o3erthro#nS in a cou" in !e"tember 0?(E, bringing General Pinochets S blood& dictatorshi" to "o#er,S Dhile toda&s efforts are "erha"s less ob3ious, "lent& of S e3idence indicates that the 9!2

continues to a "la& a 5e& roleS in go3ernmental stabilit& in 4atin 2merica, For e/am"le,S President @ugo
Cha3e= recentl& blamed the 9!2 for attem"tingS to foment a cou" in :ene=uelaJ ^I 5no# I am condemned,,,, S Im sure in Dashington the& are "lanning m& death,,,, If the&S manage to 5ill me there #ill onl& be one "erson in this #orld to S blameJ the "resident of the 9nited !tates (Mar5e&, )**I1, %heS rise of other 4eft-leaning leaders , such as Cristina Kirchener inS 2rgentina and E3o Morales in 7oli3ia, reflects

the same basis forS the 9!2s Cold Dar efforts to foment cou"s in the region,0S %hus, it a""ears that cou"s continue to be rele3ant in 4atin S 2merica, and #e can e/"ect the 9nited !tates to continue to "la&S a 5e& role in these e3ents,S %his article ta5es a t#o-ste" a""roach to
im"ro3e ourS understanding of ho# relations #ith the 9!2 affect cou"s in S 4atin 2merica, %he Bualitati3e literature on this subFect re3ealsS a ^con3entional #isdom, suggesting that the 9!2 "la&s anS integral role in (de1stabili=ing e/ecuti3es in

4atin 2merica, %his is not to sa& that the general rise of 4eftist go3ernments #illS automaticall& dra# the ire of the 9!2, Man&
ne#l& elected 4eftist leaders,S including Presidents 7achelet (Chile1, :amS =Bue= (9rugua&1, and 4ula (7ra=il1S ha3e forged strong ties #ith the 9!2 (@a5im, )**EN Castaneda, )**+1,%his #or5 includes rich detail of 9! efforts to o3erthro# both

dictators andS democraticall& elected regimes (4aFeber, 0??E1, and anal&ses of recentl& declassified documents unco3ering co3ert o"erations during the Cold Dar eraS (Kornbluh, 0???1, %he 3olume of #or5 discussing the 9! in3ol3ement in theS cou" to o3erthro# 2llende alone is im"ressi3e, not to mention the entire S shel3es of boo5s discussing do=ens of other #ell-5no#n cou"s in the region ,S !ee ]immermann (0?XE1 for an e/cellent (albeit dated1 re3ie# of the literature S considering the effect of outside actors on cou"s in 4atin 2merica, Dhile man& countries ha3e li5el& "la&ed a role in affecting cou"s in 4atin 2merica, the historical dominance of the 9!2 in the region ma5e it reasonable to focus e/clusi3el& on signals sent from the 9!2, 7eginning #ith the Monroe Coctrine (0X)E1, the 9!2 made clear its intent to 5ee" Euro"ean "o#ers out of the region,
%his "olic& #as reinforced #ith the ^Roose3elt Corollar& (0?*.1, #hich "ro3ided Fustification for direct 9! in3ol3ement based on Roose3elts 3ie# that the 9!2 had a ^moral mandate to enforce "ro"er beha3ior in 4atin 2merica, %his e3idence suggests

that the 9!2 has "la&ed a uniBue role regarding the securit& of 4atin 2merican states, "ro3iding a focal "oint for this stud&, Relations bet#een the 9!2 and 4atin 2merican states ha3e t#o "rimar& effects on the "robabilit& of a cou", First, case e3idence sho#s that the 9!2 has "la&ed a 5e& role in inciting cou"s b& sending forces and su""lies to cou" "lotters, #hich ser3e as hostile signals that increase their "ercei3ed "robabilit& of successfull& o3erthro#ing the go3ernment, >ne of the most famous e/am"les is the
CI2-ins"ired o3erthro# of Guatemalan President 'acobo 2m rben= Gu=mamn (0?I.1 follo#ing the im"lementation of 4eft-leaning land redistribution "olicies (including the e/"ro"riation of land o#ned b& the 9!-based 9nited Fruit Com"an&1, In this case, the CI2 used economic, "aramilitar&, "s&chological and di"lomatic actions to destabili=e the leader and "ut anti-communist elements in "o#er, %he efforts culminated in a cou" attem"t b& Colonel Carlos Castillo in 0?I. (2&bar de !oto, 0?(XN Cullather, 0???1, %he e/tensi3e hostile signals sent from the 9!2 to the 2m rben= go3ernment indicated that e3en Castillos meager force could successfull& attain and sustain "o#er #ith 9! su""ort, More generall&, hostile signals channeled from the 9!2 should

increase cou" "lotters "ercei3ed "robabilit& of staging a successful cou" (right on the /-a/is1 because the& gi3e the "lotters an ad3antage o3er the go3ernment in solidif&ing "o#er once the cou" is attem"ted, and de"lete the resources a3ailable to the go3ernment to deter cou" attem"ts b& bloc5ing foreign aid or international in3estment, Dhile the e/am"les su""ort the discussion to this "oint, it is
unli5el& that lum"ing all hostile foreign "olic& signals into one grou" #ill "ro3ide satisfactor& findings for either scholars or "olic&ma5ers, Dhat is needed is a more detailed understanding of ho# 3ariations in hostile signals might affect the li5elihood of cou"s in the region, >ne #a& that #e can brea5 do#n signals is b& considering the factors that #ould be most im"ortant to a cou" "lotter, Namel&, a leader must be con3inced that the signals are credible before ta5ing the ris5& decision to stage a cou", If a signal lac5s credibilit&, then the signal is li5el& dismissed as noise, !cholars in the international relations literature ha3e long considered

the credibilit& of signals, generall& concluding that credibilit& is deri3ed from the costs incurred in sending the signal (Po#ell, 0??*N Fearon, 0??(1,

+ at ca&ses glo!al #arfare 9oc lin/ 0E Z'ames Francis, Professor of Political !cience at >5anagan 9, College, Discovering the Americas: The Evolution of Canadian Foreign Policy Towards Latin America , 0E*-0E0, Da5e Earl& 7ird FileR
Dhile there #ere economic moti3ations for Canadian "olic& in Central 2merica, securit& considerations #ere "erha"s more im"ortant, Canada "ossessed an interest in "romoting stabilit& in the face of a "otential decline of 9,!, hegemon& in the 2mericas, Perce"tions of declining 9,!, influence in the region W #hich had some credibilit& in 0?(?-0?X. due to the #ildl& ineBuitable di3isions of #ealth in some 9,!, client states in 4atin 2merica, in addition to "olitical re"ression, underde3elo"ment, mounting e/ternal debt, anti-2merican sentiment "roduced b& decades of subFugation to 9,!, strategic and economic interests, and so on W #ere lin5ed to the "ros"ect of e/"losi3e e3ents occurring in the hemis"here, @ence, the Central 2merican imbroglio #as 3ie#ed as a fuse #hich could ignite a catacl&smic "rocess throughout the region, 2nal&sts at the time #orried that in a #orstcase scenario, instabilit& created b& a regional #ar , beginning in Central 2merica and s"reading else#here in

4atin 2merica, might "reoccu"& Dashington to the e/tent that the 9nited !tates #ould be unable to "erform adeBuatel& its im"ortant hegemonic role in the international arena W a concern e/"ressed b& the director of research for Canadas !tanding Committee Re"ort on Central 2merica, It #as feared that s&c a pre'icament co&l' generate increase' global instability an' "erha"s e3en a hegemonic war, %his is one of the moti3ations #hich
led Canada to become in3ol3ed in efforts at regional conflict resolution, such as Contadora, as #ill be discussed in the ne/t cha"ter,

%e@ican 9elations DA 1NC

*( egemony in Latin America 'e"astates any relation #it %e@ico Falcoff E (Mar5 Falcoff -- "rofessional staff member of the !enate Foreign Relations and senior constultant to the National 7i"artisan Comission on Central 2merica, $9!-4atin 2merican Relations, 2ugust 0st, )**. ###,aei,org-outloo5-foreign-and-defense-"olic&-regional-latinamerica-us-latin-american-relations-outloo5-1 !M %his series began more than a do=en &ears ago #ith an essa& titled L 9,!,-4atin 2merican RelationsJ Dhere 2re De No#6M !ince this is the last issue of 4atin 2merican >utloo5, it seems #orth#hile to "ose the Buestion again, %he ans#er is bound to be less o"timistic than #hen it #as first as5ed, For one thing, in the inter3ening &ears man& 4atin 2mericans ha3e become disillusioned #ith economic reform, "ri3ati=ation, and Lneo-liberalism M--as the& call itHand are loo5ing once again to the state to sol3e all their "roblem s, For another, corru"tion and Fobber& ha3e
discredited much of the "olitical class at all le3els, %he most recent, lurid e/am"le has been a s"ate of l&nchings of small-to#n officials in Guatemala, Peru, and 7oli3ia, For &et another, the LDashington consensusM--the commitment to

more o"en, freer economiesHis no# regarded as an unfortunate e"isode forced u"on the region b& a selfish, gras"ing, and unfeeling 9nited !tates, %he "roFect for a Free %rade 2rea of the 2mericas (F%221 s"onsored b& the first 7ush and Clinton administrations is often de"icted as a cons"irac& to e@ploit an' s&!=&gate 4atin economies, In its "lace man& no# loo5 to the creation of regional trade blocs as a
better alternati3e, 2t the same time, there is a dee" resentment against the 7ush administration for allegedl& ignoring the region and its "roblems, %o be sure, not all of notions abo3e are accurate, or e3en coherent, Dhat is true is that 4atin 2merica is

not the most im"ortant region for 9,!, "olic&ma5ers and is not li5el& to be at an& time in the foreseeable future, It #ould be Buite ama=ing if it #ere, Partl& due to the ?-00 terrorist attac5s, "artl& as the result of the
emergence of a rogue nuclear state in North Korea, 9,!, securit& concerns ha3e decisi3el& shifted to the Middle East and North 2sia, E3en our relations #ith Destern Euro"e ha3e lost some of their salience, E3en so, this does not mean that 4atin 2merica #ill disa""ear entirel& from the 9,!, national agenda, or e3en that it has done so during the course of the "resent administration, It is #orth recalling that last &ear a free trade agreement #ith Chile #as concluded after nearl& a decade of "ost"onements b& the "re3ious administration, and there is significant mo3ement to#ard a similar agreement #ith the Central 2merican re"ublics, Immigration issues #ill remain im"ortant, "articularl& in the 9,!, relationshi" #ith Me/ico, Gi3en the #ea5 economic "erformance in most of the region--as #ell as a fractious "olitical en3ironment in :ene=uela and Cubas "roblematic future--#e can e/"ect the 9,!,-based dias"oras of all the re"ublics to gro# in si=e, :ie#s from 2broad %he #hole notion of L4atin 2mericaM is something of a geogra"hical abstraction, Dhat #e ha3e south of the 9nited !tates are a series of societies, man& of them--in s"ite of su"erficial similarities--sur"risingl& different from one another, 4i5e#ise, attitudes to#ard the 9nited !tates 3ar&, according to historical e/"erience and cultural "redis"osition, %he classic case of a Llo3e-hateM relationshi" is Me/ico, #hich

admires, en3ies, and attem"ts to re"licate the 9nited !tates, 7ut it also resents it--dee"l&, Me/icans ha3e ne3er forgotten the loss of nearl& half of their territor& to the 9nited !tates in 0X.X or the inter3ention of 9,!, militar& forces during the Re3olution of 0?0*, 2t the same time, the 3er& "ro/imit& of the 9nited !tates--a far more successful societ&--acts as a "ermanent #ound to Me/ican selfesteem, guite a"art from their histor& and because their consumer culture has been so hea3il& influenced b& the 9nited !tates,
"articularl& since the N2F%2 agreements, Me/icans feel the "eriodic need to reassert their inde"endence, %his e/"lains, for e/am"le, Me/icos reluctance to su""ort efforts to in3o5e the Inter-2merican %reat& of Reci"rocal 2ssistance (the so-called Rio %reat&1 after the attac5 on the Dorld %rade Center, as #ell as its refusal last &ear to su""ort the 9nited !tates at the 9N !ecurit& Council on IraB,Z0R Me/ican ambi3alence to#ard the 9nited !tates is buttressed b& the incon3enient fact that some X million or more of its nationals li3e and #or5 here, and their remittances to their families bac5 home constitute a safet& net crucial to the nations stabilit&, Indeed, President :icente Fo/ has "ublicl& stated more than once that the "ros"erit& of Me/ico is de"endent u"on continued 9,!, economic e/"ansion, E3en Me/ican attitudes to#ard the 9nited !tates as a societ& are

com"licated, %he 9,!, media made much of a soccer game last &ear at #hich Me/ican cro#ds cheered for >sama bin 4aden, but a recent sur3e& re3eals ordinar& citi=ens of that countr& di3ided right do#n the middle in their attitudes to#ard their northern neighbor--as man& #ith "ositi3e as negati3e 3ie#s, %his is all the more remar5able because the maFor Me/ican media does all it can to de"ict this
countr& in the dar5est tones, "articularl& #ith regard to the treatment of racial and national minorities, 2""arentl& its re"resentations are not #holl& "ersuasi3e, to Fudge b& the number of Me/icans #ho #ish to come to this countr& and are turned a#a& at the border e3er& da&,

9elations sol"e 'r&gs an' terrorism (torrs $ (K, 4arr& !torrs, !"ecialist in 4atin 2merican 2ffairs, Foreign 2ffairs, Cefense, and %rade Ci3ision of CR!, 0-0X-)**+ LMe/icos Im"ortance and Multi"le

Relationshi"s #ith the 9nited !tatesM, htt"J--assets,o"encrs,com-r"ts-R4EE)..Q)**+*00X,"df, -- 'G1 !haring a ),***-mile border and e/tensi3e interconnections through the Gulf ofS Me/ico, the 9nited !tates and Me/ico are so intricatel& lin5ed together in an S enormous multi"licit& of #a&s that President George D, 7ush and other 9,!,S officials ha3e stated that no countr& is more im"ortant to the 9nited !tates thanS Me/ico, 2t the same time, Me/ican President :icente Fo/ ()***-)**+1, the firstS "resident to be elected from an o""osition "art& in (0 &ears, has sought to strengthenS the relationshi" #ith the 9nited !tates through #hat some ha3e called a LgrandS bargain,M 9nder this "ro"osed bargain, the 9nited !tates #ould regulari=e the statusS of undocumented Me/ican #or5ers in the 9nited !tates and economicall& assist theS less de3elo"ed "artner in the North 2merican Free %rade 2greement (N2F%21,S #hile Me/ico #ould be more coo"erati3e in efforts to control the illegal traffic ofS drugs, "eo"le, and goods into the 9nited !tates,S %he southern neighbor is lin5ed #ith the 9nited !tates through trade andS in3estment, migration and tourism, en3ironment and health concerns, and famil& and S cultural relationshi"s, It is the second most im"ortant trading "artner of the 9nited S !tates, and this trade is critical to man& 9,!, industries and border communities, ItS is a maFor source of undocumented migrants and illicit drugs and a "ossible a3enueS for the entr& of terrorists into the 9nited !tates, 2s a result, coo"eration #ith Me/icoS is essential to deal effecti3el& #ith migration, 'r&g traffic.ing, and border, terrorism,S health, en3ironment, and energ& issues, +errorism lea's to great po#er #arfare ----- only scenario for escalation Ayson/ 1? ZRobert 2&son, Professor of !trategic !tudies and Cirector of the Centre for !trategic !tudiesJ Ne# ]ealand at the :ictoria 9ni3ersit& of Dellington,L2fter a %errorist Nuclear 2ttac5J En3isaging Catal&tic Effects,M (t&'ies in Conflict N +errorism, :olume EE, Issue (, 'ul&, 23ailable >nline to !ubscribing Institutions 3ia InformaDorldR
2 terrorist nuclear attac5, and e3en the use of nuclear #ea"ons in res"onse b& the countr& attac5ed in the first "lace, #ould not necessaril& re"resent the #orst of the nuclear #orlds imaginable, Indeed, there are reasons to #onder #hether nuclear terrorism should e3er be regarded as belonging in the categor& of trul& e/istential threats, 2 contrast can be dra#n here #ith the global catastro"he that #ould come from a massi3e nuclear e/change bet#een t#o or more of the so3ereign states that "ossess these #ea"ons in significant numbers, E3en the #orst terrorism that the t#ent&-first centur& might bring #ould fade into insignificance alongside considerations of #hat a general nuclear #ar #ould ha3e #rought in the Cold Dar "eriod, 2nd it must be admitted that as

long as the maFor nuclear #ea"ons states ha3e hundreds and e3en thousands of nuclear #ea"ons at their dis"osal, there is al#a&s the "ossibilit& of a trul& a#ful nuclear e/change ta5ing "lace "reci"itated entirel& b& state "ossessors themsel3es, 7ut these t#o nuclear #orldsHa non-state actor nuclear attac5 and a catastro"hic interstate nuclear e/changeHare not necessaril& se"arable, It is Fust "ossible that some sort of terrorist attac5, and es"eciall& an act of nuclear terrorism, could "reci"itate a chain of e3ents leading to a massi3e e/change of nuclear #ea"ons bet#een t#o or more of the states that "ossess them, In this conte/t, toda&s and tomorro#s terrorist grou"s might assume the "lace allotted during the earl& Cold Dar &ears to ne# state "ossessors of small nuclear arsenals #ho #ere seen as raising the ris5s of a catal&tic nuclear #ar bet#een the su"er"o#ers started b& third "arties, %hese ris5s #ere considered in the late 0?I*s and earl&
0?+*s as concerns gre# about nuclear "roliferation, the so-called nY0 "roblem, It ma& reBuire a considerable amount of imagination to de"ict an es"eciall& "lausible situation #here an act of nuclear terrorism could lead to such a massi3e inter-state nuclear #ar, For e/am"le, in the e3ent of a terrorist nuclear attac5 on the 9 nited !tates, it might #ell be #ondered

Fust ho# Russia and-or China could "lausibl& be brought into the "icture, not least because the& seem unli5el& to be fingered as the most ob3ious state s"onsors or encouragers of terrorist grou"s, %he& #ould seem far too res"onsible to be in3ol3ed in su""orting that sort of terrorist beha3ior that could Fust as easil& threaten
them as #ell, !ome "ossibilities, ho#e3er remote, do suggest themsel3es, For e/am"le, ho# might the 9nited !tates react if it #as thought or disco3ered that the fissile material used in the act of nuclear terrorism had come from Russian stoc5s,.* and if for some reason Mosco# denied an& res"onsibilit& for nuclear la/it&6 %he correct attribution of that nuclear material to a "articular countr& might not be a case of science fiction gi3en the obser3ation b& Michael Ma& et al, that #hile the debris resulting from a nuclear e/"losion #ould be Ls"read o3er a #ide area in tin& fragments, its radioacti3it& ma5es it detectable, identifiable and collectable, and a #ealth of information can be obtained from its anal&sisJ the efficienc& of the e/"losion, the materials used and, most im"ortant c some indication of #here the nuclear material came from,M.0 2lternati3el&, if the act of nuclear terrorism came as a

complete s&rprise, and 2merican officials refused to belie3e that a terrorist grou" #as full& res"onsible (or res"onsible at all1 sus"icion #o&l'

s ift imme'iately to state possessors 2 9&ling o&t Western ally co&ntries li5e the #ould be left #ith a 3er& short list consisting of North Korea, "erha"s Iran if its "rogram continues, and "ossibl& Pa5istan2 B&t at # at stage #o&l' 9&ssia an' C ina !e 'efinitely r&le' o&t in t is ig sta.es game of n&clear Cl&e'oI In "articular, if the act of nuclear terrorism occurred against a bac5dro" of e/isting tension in Dashingtons relations #ith Russia and-or China / an' at a time # en t reats a' alrea'y !een tra'e' !et#een t ese ma=or po#ers/ #o&l' officials an' political lea'ers not !e tempte' to ass&me t e #orstI >f course, the chances of this occurring #ould onl& seem to
9nited Kingdom and France, and "robabl& Israel and India as #ell, authorities in Dashington increase if the 9nited !tates #as alread& in3ol3ed in some sort of limited armed conflict #ith Russia and-or China, or if the& #ere confronting each other from a distance in a "ro/& #ar, as unli5el& as these de3elo"ments ma& seem at the "resent time, %he re3erse might #ell a""l& tooJ should a nuclear terrorist attac5 occur in Russia or China during a "eriod of heightened tension or e3en limited conflict #ith the 9nited !tates, could Mosco# and 7eiFing resist the "ressures that might rise domesticall& to consider the 9nited !tates as a "ossible "er"etrator or encourager of the attac56 Dashingtons early response to a terrorist

n&clear attac. on its o#n soil might also raise the "ossibilit& of an un#anted (and nuclear aided3 confrontation #it 9&ssia an'Oor C ina, For e/am"le, in the noise and confusion during the immediate aftermath of the terrorist nuclear attac5, the 9,!, "resident might be e/"ected to "lace the co&ntryCs arme' forces/ incl&'ing its n&clear arsenal/ on a ig er stage of alert2 In s&c a tense en"ironment, #hen careful "lanning runs u" against the friction of realit&, it is =&st possi!le t at %osco# an'Oor C ina mig t mista.enly rea' t is as a sign of *2(2 intentions to &se force Gan' possi!ly n&clear force3 against t em2 In t at sit&ation/ t e temptations to preempt s&c actions mig t gro#, although it must be admitted that an& "reem"tion
#ould "robabl& still meet #ith a de3astating res"onse, 2s "art of its initial res"onse to the act of nuclear terrorism (as discussed earlier1 Dashington might decide to order a significant con"entional Gor n&clear3 retaliatory or 'isarming attac.

against t e lea'ers ip of t e terrorist gro&p an'Oor states seen to s&pport t at gro&p, Ce"ending on the identit& and es"eciall& the location of these targets, Russia and-or China might inter"ret such action as being far too close for their comfort, and "otentiall& as an infringement on their s"heres of influence an' e"en on t eir so"ereignty, >ne far-fetched but "erha"s not im"ossible scenario might stem from a Fudgment in Dashington that some of the main aiders and abetters of the terrorist action resided some#here such as Chechn&a, "erha"s in connection #ith #hat 2llison claims is the LChechen insurgents c long-standing interest in all things nuclear,M.) 2merican "ressure on that "art of the #orld #ould almost certainl& raise alarms in Mosco# that might reBuire a degree of ad3anced consultation from Dashington that the latter found itself unable or un#illing to "ro3ide, %here is also the Buestion of ho# other nuclear-armed states respon' to t e act of n&clear terrorism on anot er mem!er of t at special cl&!, It could reasonabl& be e/"ected that follo#ing a nuclear terrorist attac5 on the 9nited !tates, both Russia and China #ould e/tend immediate s&m"ath& and su""ort to Dashington and #ould #or5 alongside the 9nited !tates in the !ecurit& Council, 7ut there is Fust a chance, albeit a slim one, #here the su""ort of Russia and-or China is less automatic in some cases than in others, For e/am"le, #hat #ould ha""en if the 9nited !tates #ished to discuss its right to retaliate against grou"s based in their territor&6 If, for some reason, Dashington found the res"onses of Russia and China dee"l& under#helming, (neither Lfor us or against usM1 might it also sus"ect that the& secretl& #ere in cahoots #ith the grou", increasing (again "erha"s e3er so slightl&1 t e c ances of a ma=or e@c ange, If the terrorist grou" had some
connections to grou"s in Russia and China, or e/isted in areas of the #orld o3er #hich Russia and China held s#a&, and if Dashington felt that Mosco# or 7eiFing #ere "lacing a curiousl& modest le3el of "ressure on them, #hat conclusions might it then dra# about their cul"abilit&6 If Dashington decided to use, or decided to threaten the use of, nuclear #ea"ons,

the res"onses of Russia and China #ould be crucial to the chances of a3oiding a more serio&s n&clear e@c ange, %he& might surmise, for e/am"le, that #hile the act of nuclear terrorism #as es"eciall& heinous and demanded a strong res"onse, the res"onse sim"l& had to remain belo# the nuclear threshold, It #ould be one thing for a non-state actor to ha3e bro5en the nuclear use taboo, but an entirel& different thing for a state actor, and indeed the leading state in the international s&stem, to do so, If Russia and China felt sufficientl& strongl& about that "ros"ect, there is then the Buestion of #hat o"tions #ould lie o"en to them to dissuade the 9nited !tates from such actionJ and as has been seen o3er the last se3eral decades, the central dissuader of the use of nuclear #ea"ons b& states has been the threat of nuclear retaliation, If some readers find

this sim"l& too fanciful, and "erha"s e3en offensi3e to contem"late, it ma& be informati3e to re3erse the tables, 9&ssia,

#hich "ossesses an arsenal of thousands of nuclear #arheads and that has been one of the t#o most im"ortant trustees of the non-use taboo, is subFected to an attac5 of nuclear terrorism2 In
response/ %osco# places its n&clear forces "ery "isi!ly on a ig er state of alert an' 'eclares t at it is consi'ering t e &se of n&clear retaliation against t e gro&p an' any of its state s&pporters2 Ho# #o&l' Was ington "ie# s&c a possi!ilityI Dould it reall& be 5een to su""ort Russias use of nuclear #ea"ons, including outside Russias traditional s"here of influence6 2nd if not, #hich seems Buite "lausible, #hat o"tions #ould Dashington ha3e to communicate that dis"leasure6 If China had been the 3ictim of the nuclear terrorism and seemed li5el& to retaliate in 5ind, #ould the 9nited !tates and Russia be ha""& to sit bac5 and let this occur6 In t e c arge' atmosp ere imme'iately after a n&clear terrorist

attac./ o# #o&l' t e attac.e' co&ntry respon' to press&re from ot er ma=or n&clear po#ers not to respon' in .in'I + e p rase A o# 'are t ey tell &s # at to 'oB imme'iately springs to min'2 (ome mig t e"en go so far as to interpret t is concern as a tacit form of sympat y or s&pport for t e terrorists2 + is mig t not elp t e c ances of n&clear restraint2

<ene6&ela )rolif DA 1NC

*nipolarity ris.s <ene6&elan proliferation We!er > (!te3en, Cirector of the Institute for International !tudies at the 9ni3ersit& of California -- 7er5ele&, Foreign Polic&, 'an-Feb )**( -- Page .X, htt"J--boo5s,google,com-boo5s6 idOf2EgsQgB0C#CP"gOP2.?XPl"gOP2.?XPdBO))%heYtrul&YdangerousY"lacesYareYtheY"o intsY#hereYtheYsubterraneanYnet#or5sYtouchYtheYmainstreamYofYglobalY"oliticsYandYec onomics, _))PsourceOblPotsO!dabli#'niPsigOe9mn(@haoM9KB(FClnrCfbmG&?9PhlOenPsaOaPeiO !Rc49>K:EXB2Bg@su4G+CgP3edO*CFGg+2E#22k3Oone"agePBO_))%he_)*trul& _)*dangerous_)*"laces_)*are_)*the_)*"oints_)*#here_)*the_)*subterranean _)*net#or5s_)*touch_)*the_)*mainstream_)*of_)*global_)*"olitics_)*and _)*economics,_))PfOfalse1 !M %hat8s nice #or5 if &ou can get it, 7ut the 9nited !tates almost certainl& cannot, Not onl& because other countries #on8t let it, but, more "rofoundl&, because that line of thin5ing is fault& , %he "redominance of 2merican "o#er has man& benefits, but the management of globali=ation is not one of them, %he mobilit& of ideas, ca"ital, technolog&, and "eo"le is hardl& ne#, 7ut the ra"id ad3ance of globali=ation8s e3ils is, Most of that ad3ance has ta5en "lace since 0??*, Dh&6 7ecause #hat changed "rofoundl& in the 0??*s #as the "olarit& of the international s&stem, For the first time in modern histor&, globali=ation #as su"erim"osed onto a #orld #ith a single su"er"o#er, Dhat #e ha3e disco3ered in the "ast 0I &ears is that it is a dangerous mi/ture, %he negati3e effects of globali=ation since 0??* are not the result of globali=ation itself, %he& are the dar5 side of 2merican "redominance , %@E C2NGER! >F 9NIP>42RI% 2 straightfor#ard "iece of logic from mar5et economics hel"s e/"lain #h& uni"olarit& and globali=ation don8t mi/, Mono"olies, regardless of #ho holds them, are almost al#a&s bad for both the mar5et and the mono"olist, De "ro"ose three sim"le a/ioms of $globali=ation under uni"olarit&$ that re3eal these dangers, 2/iom 0J 2bo3e a certain threshold of "o#er, the rate at #hich ne# global "roblems are generated #ill e/ceed the rate at #hich old "roblems are fi/ed Po#er does t#o things in international "oliticsJ It enhances the ca"abilit& of a state to do things, but it also increases the number of things that a state must #orr& about, 2t a certain "oint, the latter starts to o3erta5e the former, It8s the familiar la# of diminishing returns, 7ecause "o#erful states ha3e large s"heres of influence and their securit& and economic interests touch e3er& region of the #orld, the& are threatened b& the ris5 of things going #rong-an&#here , %hat is "articularl& true for the 9nited !tates, #hich le3erages its abilit& to go an&#here and do an&thing through massi3e debt, No one 5no#s e/actl& #hen the la# of diminishing returns #ill 5ic5 in, 7ut, historicall&, it starts to ha""en long before a single great "o#er dominates the entire globe , #hich is #h& large em"ires from 7&=antium to Rome ha3e al#a&s reached a "oint of unsustainabilit&, %ha t ma& alread& be ha""ening to the 9nited !tates toda&, on issues ranging from oil de"endenc& and nuclear "roliferation to "andemics and global #arming, Dhat 2/iom 0 tells &ou is that more 9,!, "o#er is not the ans#erN it8s actuall& "art of the "roblem, 2 multi"olar #orld #ould almost certainl& manage the globe8s "ressing "roblems more effecti3el&, %he larger the number of great "o#ers in the global s&stem, the greater the chance that at least one of them #ould e/ercise some control o3er a gi3en combination of s"ace, other actors, and "roblems, !uch reasoning doesn8t rest on ho"eful notions that the great "o#ers #ill #or5 together, %he& might do so, 7ut e3en if the& don8t, the result is distributed go3ernance, #here some great "o#er is interested in most e3er& "art of the #orld through "roducti3e com"etition 2/iom )J In an increasingl& net#or5ed #orld, "laces that fall bet#een the net#or5s are 3er& dangerous "laces-and there #ill be more ungo3erned =ones #hen there is onl& one net#or5
to Foin %he second a/iom ac5no#ledges that highl& connected net#or5s can be efficient, robust, and resilient to shoc5s, 7ut in a highl& connected #orld, the "ieces that fall bet#een the net#or5s are increasingl& shut off from the benefits of connecti3it&, %hese

"roblems fester in the form of failed states, mutate li5e "athogenic bacteria, and, in some cases, reconnect in subterranean net#or5s such as al gaeda, %he trul& dangerous "laces are the "oints #here the subterranean net#or5s touch the mainstream of global "olitics and economics , Dhat made 2fghanistan so dangerous under the %aliban #as not that it #as a failed state, It #asn8t, It #as a "artiall& failed and

"artiall& connected state that #or5ed

the interstices of globali=ation through the drug trade , counterfeiting, and terrorism Can an& single su"er"o#er monitor all the seams and bac5 alle&s of globali=ation6 @ardl&, In fact, a lone hegemon is unli5el& to loo5 closel& at these "roblems , because more "ressing issues are ha""ening else#here, in "laces #here trade and technolog& are gro#ing, 7& contrast, a #orld of se3eral great "o#ers is a more interest-rich en3ironment in #hich nations must loo5 in less ob3ious "laces to find ne# sources of ad3antage , In such a s&stem, it8s harder for troublema5ers to s"ring u", because the crac5s and seams of globali=ation are held together b& stronger ties 2/iom EJ
Dithout a real chance to find useful allies to counter a su"er"o#er, o""onents #ill tr& to neutrali=e "o#er, b& going underground, going nuclear, or going $bad, 2/iom E is a stor& about the "referred strategies of the #ea5, It8s a basic insight of

international relations that states tr& to balance "o#er , %he& "rotect themsel3es b& Foining grou"s that can hold a hegemonic threat at ba&, 7ut #hat if there is no 3iable grou" to Foin6 In toda&8s uni"olar #orld, e3er& nation from :ene=uela to North Korea is loo5ing for a #a& to constrain 2merican "o#er, 7ut in the uni"olar #orld, it8s harder for states to Foin together to do that, !o the& turn to other means, %he&
"la& a different game, @amas, Iran, !omalia, North Korea, and :ene=uela are not going to become allies an&time soon, Each is better off finding other #a&s to ma5e life more difficult for Dashington , Going nuclear is one #a&,

Counterfeiting 9,!, currenc& is another, Raising uncertaint& about oil su""lies is "erha"s the most ob3ious method of all @ere8s the im"ortant do#nside of uni"olar globali=ation , In a #orld #ith multi"le great "o#ers, man& of these threats #ould be less troublesome, %he relati3el& #ea5 states #ould ha3e a choice among "otential "artners #ith #hich to all& , enhancing their influence, Dithout
that more attracti3e choice, facilitating the dar5 side of globali=ation becomes the most effecti3e means of constraining 2merican "o#er %he #orld is "a&ing a hea3& "rice for the instabilit& created b& the combination of

globali=ation and uni"olarit&, and the 9nited !tates is bearing most of the burden , Consider the case of nuclear "roliferation, %here8s effecti3el& a mar5et out there for "roliferation, #ith its o#n su""l& (states #illing to share nuclear technolog&1 and demand (states that badl& #ant a nuclear #ea"on1, %he o3erla" of uni"olarit& #ith globali=ation ratchets u" both the su""l& and demand, to the detriment of 9,!, national securit&, <ene6&elan proliferation ca&ses e@tinction %I+/ 0 (Citing 4icio da !il3a, 2stro"h&sicist at the >bser3atorio Nacional de R o de 'aneiro7rasil, L%he 27C8s of Nuclear Cisarmament in 4atin 2mericaM , htt"J--oc#,mit,edu-courses-"olitical-science-0(-?I0-nuclear-#ea"ons-in-international-"olitics"ast-"resent-and-future-s"ring-)**?-"roFects-MI%0(Q?I0!*?Qabcs,"df1 %here are se3eral resources that indicate that 4atin 2merican "olitical scientists #ere #orried about the effect nuclear #ea"ons #ould ha3e on the region, !e3eral theorists belie3ed that the introduction of e3en the hint of a #ea"ons "rogram #ould ma5e the entire region "aranoid and further increase a state8s incenti3e to "roduce a bomb, >ther theorists 3ie# the de3elo"ment of nuclear #ea"ons in the region as a ris5 in that it dra#s attention from the rest of ) $los conce"tos de eBuilibrio intrarregional & de confian=a entre los "a ses de la regi;n (Portales )I1$ ? the #orld onto 4atin 2merica, %his un#anted attention could lead to disastrous affects for the region if an& countr& #as "ercei3ed as a threat to an& of the greater su"er"o#ers, !ecurit& "erce"tion moti3ates a countr&8s #ea"ons de3elo"ment, Carlos Portales discusses ho# the introduction of a ne# #ea"on to the 4atin 2merican region has a $contagious$ effectN first one countr& has it and then the rest of them struggle to obtain it , If an& countr& is "ercei3ed to be loo5ing or de3elo"ing a ne# #ea"on, all countries #ill follo# in order to 5ee" the balance of "o#er #ithin the region, %he introduction of a ne# #ea"on limits an& arms control treaties until all
countries "ossess the ne# #ea"on (Mercado 'arr nN Portales )(1, In his article $ConseBuences of a Nuclear Conflict for the Climate in !outh 2merica,$ 4icio da !il3aE describes the conseBuences to !outh 2merica if there #ere to be a nuclear attac5 on North 2merica, @e calls this the $>"timistic @i"othesis ZsicR$ for !outh 2merica and calculates "o"ulation death b& smo5e in the atmos"here, @is $Pessimistic @i"othesis ZsicR$ in3ol3es attac5s on !outh 2merican cities and the destruction that could be cause, he e3en ta5es into account the "ossibilit& of the 2ma=on going u" in flames, @is article is Buite alarming and one can see that he is trul& terrified at the "ossibilities, 2s a conclusion, he calls for countries to be "re"ared for the #orse and for the region to tr& and a3oid international conflict b& not obtaining nuclear #ea"ons, da !il3a states that if no !outh 2merican countr& "ossesses a nuclear #ea"on, then no nuclear #ea"on state should "ercei3e !outh 2merica as a threat, If a 4atin 2merican state #ere to

ha3e a nuclear #ea"on, then that countr& could be "ercei3ed as a threat and thus could be targeted in an international conflict if it is seen as ta5ing sides J $Dhen a countr& becomes the o#ner of a

nuclear arsenal, it also becomes a "otential target (da !il3a I+1,$ %herefore, da !il3a calls for 4atin 2merican countries to remain disarmed so as not to "ut the E 2stro"h&sicist at the >bser3atorio Nacional de R o de 'aneiro- 7rasil0* region in "eril, @is directl& names 2rgentina and 7ra=il for their in3ol3ement in nuclear #ea"ons "rograms and accuses them of "utting the entire region at ris5J %his sho#s the temerit& of 2rgentine and 7ra=ilian militar& #ho are in fa3our of the "ossession of nuclear #ea"ons in their res"ecti3e countriesN #e belie3e that the "rice #e #ould ha3e to "a& for the dubious "ride of belonging to the small grou" of nations in "ossession of nuclear technolog& for militar& "ur"oses is too high, @ere #e see a sincere fear of the securit& ris5s that one countr& can "ose on an entire region, For da !il3a, the destabili=ing effect that nuclear #ea"ons #ould ha3e on !outh 2merica alarm him enough to single out the t#o countries and negati3el& describe their search for nuclear #ea"ons as $dubious "ride,$ @e continues on to as5 for $the commitment not to install an& nuclear arms in their Z!outh 2merican8sR territor& (da !il3a I+1,$ %he use of the #ord $their$ refers to a collecti3e identit& shared b& those in !outh 2merica, Militar& im"ro3ements of indi3idual countries should not be as im"ortant as the #ell being of the entire region, !outh 2mericans countries are lum"ed together and thus, must ta5e into account the entire region before "ursuing "recarious "rograms, 2n arms race in the region #ould affect all countries in

4atin 2merica since such an arms race $contributes to increase both international tensions and the danger of armed conflicts, in addition to di3erting resources indis"ensable to the economic and social "rogress of the "eo"les of the #orld, (7ra=il and the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Dea"ons 0?1,$ >ne countr&8s search for nuclear #ea"ons or e3en nuclear "o#er, increases all the other countries8 li5elihood to obsess, o3erreact or become hostile during the situation, Regions that are economicall& de"endent on each other, such as !outh 2merica, #o&l' a"e a "ery ar' time s&r"i"ing if t ere e@iste' no tr&st !et#een t e nations2

<ene6&ela )rolif DA Lin. Wall

C&rrent *( post&re ris.s <ene6&elan proliferation Bolton 1? (Former 9! Ci"lomat to the 9nited Nations $%he Cha3e= %hreat$ !e"tember 0+th, )*0* ###,aei,org-article-foreign-and-defense-"olic&-regional-latin-america-the-cha3e=threat-1 !M
:ene=uela8s !e"t, )+ national "arliamentar& elections "resent a maFor o""ortunit& for strongman @ugo Cha3e= to cement his gri" on "o#er, Ces"ite a tradition of a free "ress and com"etiti3e "olitics, a cosmo"olitan elite and e/tensi3e natural resources, :ene=uela is increasingl& a case stud& in ho# to lose "olitical and economic freedom, %he sta5es are es"eciall& high in light of e3idence consistent #ith an emerging :ene=uelan nuclear #ea"ons "rogram, Ironicall&, Cha3e=8s freBuentl& clo#nish beha3ior "rotects him, camouflaging the seriousness of his "otential threat to 9,!, securit& and to democratic societies throughout 4atin 2merica, Dashington, under Re"ublican and Cemocratic administrations, has "ro3ed unable or un#illing to slo# Cha3e=8s descent into authoritarianism, 9nli5e cou"s b& "rior caudillos in the 2mericas, the situation in :ene=uela toda& is li5e a slo#-

motion train #rec5, #hich ma5es it all the more frustrating, 2 lac5 of international outrage is discouraging "ro-democrac& :ene=uelans across the ideological s"ectrum, %he& #orr& the& ha3e been forgotten, es"eciall& b& an >bama
administration that finds foreign "olic& a distraction, Cha3e=8s "urchases of ad3anced-model Kalashni5o3 assault rifles, some :ene=uelan businessmen and former di"lomats suggest, are meant to arm cam"esino $militias$ that #ill rall& to him if :ene=uela8s militar& e3er threatens his regime, or the #ea"ons ma& be destined for re3olutionar& or terrorist grou"s, %his month8s elections, therefore, ma& be a last chance for change before Cha3e= com"letes his ta5eo3er, @e has ad3anced his agenda since ta5ing office in 0??? b& fragmenting his domestic o""osition, mani"ulating election rules, closing do#n o""osition ne#s sources and e/"ro"riating the considerable assets of businesses and entre"reneurs, @e has materiall& im"aired :ene=uela8s "ros"erous "etroleum econom& b& failing to ma5e "rudent in3estments and im"ro3ements, #hile using substantial oil re3enues to consolidate his hold on "o#er, E3en more disturbing are Cha3e=8s international threats, Dhile 4atin 2merican democracies ha3e refrained from doing an&thing that smac5s of $interference$ in :ene=uela8s internal affairs, Cha3e= has felt no similar com"unction, For e/am"le, it8s clear he has sheltered, su""lied and financed F2RC guerrillas #ho see5 to o3erthro# the go3ernment in neighboring, and still-democratic, Colombia, In decades "ast, accusations that the 9nited !tates #as engaged in such tactics #ould ha3e brought millions into the streets shouting $GanBui go homeq$ 4ast &ear, Cha3e= led the charge against those in @onduras tr&ing to "re3ent its fragile democrac& (and one of the Destern @emis"here8s "oorest countries1 from being sub3erted b& Manuel ]ela&a, a #ould-be caudillo, Cha3e= has "oured mone&--o"enl& or through sus"ected clandestine channels--into elections in Peru, 7oli3ia, Nicaragua and Ecuador to su""ort leftist candidates of his il5, %o that same end, he Buestioned the legitimac& of President Feli"e Calderon8s election in Me/ico and "urchased much of 2rgentina8s so3ereign debt, >ne can onl& imagine #hat he might be doing to su""ort the Me/ican drug cartels, as #ith their cohorts in Colombia, For that reason, :ene=uelan in3ol3ement in hemis"heric drug traffic5ing should be a to" 9,!, intelligence "riorit&, >n the #orld stage, Cha3e=8s beha3ior is increasingl& ominous, 2s Fidel Castro has aged and Cuba8s relations #ith Russia ha3e faded, Cha3e= has ste""ed for#ard, @e has engaged in e/tensi3e militar& coo"eration #ith Mosco#, including maFor acBuisitions of con3entional #ea"ons, from infantr& rifles to so"histicated, high-end #ea"ons #ell be&ond an& concei3abl& legitimate reBuirements of :ene=uela8s militar&, Cha3e=8s "urchases of ad3anced-model Kalashni5o3 assault rifles, some :ene=uelan businessmen and former di"lomats suggest, are meant to arm cam"esino $militias$ that #ill rall& to him if :ene=uela8s militar& e3er threatens his regime, or the #ea"ons ma& be destined for re3olutionar& or terrorist grou"s, In either case, the conseBuences #ould be "rofoundl& negati3e, 7e&ond enhancing his o#n s#aggering re"utation, Cha3e=8s gro#ing closeness #ith Russia and Iran on nuclear matters should be our greatest concern, For decades, after militar& go3ernments fell in 7ra=il and 2rgentina, 4atin 2merica "rided itself on a3oiding the dangers of nuclear "roliferation , %he 0?+( %reat& of %latelolco s&mboli=ed this "ercei3ed immunit&, but the

region8s nuclear-free status is toda& gra3el& threatened, No#, :ene=uela is o"enl& hel"ing Iran e3ade international sanctions im"osed because of %ehran8s nuclear #ea"ons "rogram, 2long #ith the refined "etroleum "roducts it su""lies %ehran, Cha3e= allo#s Iranian ban5s and other sanctioned enter"rises to use Caracas as a base for conducting business internationall& and, re"ortedl&, to facilitate @e=bollah8s acti3it& in the hemis"here, E3en more alarming, :ene=uela claims Iran is hel"ing de3elo" its uranium reser3es, re"ortedl& among the largest in the #orld, Indeed, the formal agreement bet#een them signed t#o &ears ago for coo"eration in the nuclear field could easil& result in a uranium-for-nuclear5no#ho# trade, In addition, Cha3e= has a deal #ith Russia to build a reactor in :ene=uela, 2ll of #hich ma& signal a
dangerous clandestine nuclear #ea"ons effort, "erha"s as a surrogate for Iran, as has been true else#here, such as in !&ria,

President >bama and other freel& elected Destern @emis"here leaders at a minimum need to tell Cha3e= clearl& that his disassembling of :ene=uela8s democrac& is unacce"table, %his is 3er& nearl& the e/act o""osite of current Dhite @ouse "olic&, #hich attem"ts to a""ease Cha3e=, Castro and other leftists, as it did b& Foining them against the democratic forces in @onduras, 9nfortunatel&, #ith our o#n elections a""roaching in No3ember, it is hard to get >bama8s attention directed to 4atin 2merican affairs, or foreign "olic& generall&, 7ut ma5e no mista5e, if Cha3e= can intimidate his domestic o""osition, mani"ulate election la#s and e/tend his authoritarian control, :ene=uela #ill increasingl& be a global menace,

A+F (ol"es C ina War

No C ina #ar Gol'stein 11 - Professor and Cirector of the China Maritime !tudies Institute ` 9! Na3al Dar College ZCr, 4&le ', Goldstein, LResetting the 9!WChina !ecurit& Relationshi",M !ur3i3al d 3ol, IE no, ) d 2"rilWMa& )*00 d "", X?W00+ Deighed in the aggregate, Chinas rise remains a "eaceful "rocess, and the record to date should engender significant confidence, 7eiFing has not resorted to a significant use of force against another state in more than three decades, Its de"lo&ments of troo"s as 9N "eace5ee"ers to hot s"ots such as 4ebanon and the Cemocratic Re"ublic of the Congo ha3e "la&ed a hel"ful role, as ha3e the counter-"irac& o"erations of its fleet in the Gulf of 2den, Dhen dealing #ith #ea5 and occasionall& unstable states on its borders, such as K&rg&=stan or %aFi5istan, 7eiFing has not resorted to militar& inter3ention , nor e3en fle/ed its militar& muscles to gain ad3antage, Chinese maritime claims, #hether in the !outh or the East China seas, are generall& being enforced b& unarmed "atrol cutters, a clear signal that 7eiFing does not see5 escalation to a maFor crisis on these matters , Contrar& to the "erce"tion that Chinas senior militar& officers are all irreconcilable ha#5s, one influential Peo"les 4iberation 2rm& Na3& (P42N1 admiral recentl& said in an inter3ie#, #ith reference to lessons learned from recent border negotiations on Chinas "eri"her&J ^If there are ne3er an& concessions or com"romises, there is sim"l& no "ossibilit& of reaching a brea5through in border negotiations,) "g, ?* No #ar or escalation- n&clear primacy pre"ents 9oss P: (Robert !,, !taff Driter for the National Interest, Fall, 2ssessing the China %hreat, %he National Interest, 4e/is1
2t the strategic le3el, after decades of research and testing, China is "re"aring to de"lo& solid-fuel ballistic missiles that can target 9,!, allies in East 2sia and ma& be nearing com"letion of an intercontinental ballistic missile that can target the continental 9nited !tates, It is also ma5ing ad3ances in de3elo"ment of its ne/t-generation submarine-launched ballistic missiles, None of these de3elo"ments should come as a sur"riseN 9,!, intelligence has been follo#ing these "rograms since their ince"tion, Moreo3er, these "rograms should not be consi'ere' a c allenge to 9,!, militar& su"eriorit&, >nce these #ea"ons are full& o"erational, "erha"s b& the end of the decade, China #ill ha3e a more credible minimal second-stri5e ca"abilit&,

Ces"ite recent Chinese bra3ado, not onl& is it ar' to imagine a scenario in #hich C ina #o&l' &se n&clear #eapons in res"onse to con3entional hostilities, but 9,!, retaliator& ca"abilities #ould ma5e Chinese first-use s&ici'al, Continued moderni=ation of its nuclear forces and massi3e Buantitati3e su"eriorit& o3er China gi3e the 9nited !tates a far more ro!&st 'eterrent "osture 3is-a -3is China than it e3er "ossessed 3is-a -3is the !o3iet 9nion, !imilarl&, o"er# elming 9,!, nuclear s&periority "ro3ides greater strategic securit& for our East 2sian allies than 9,!, nuclear ca"abilities e3er "ro3ided for our Euro"ean allies during the Cold Dar,

A+F (ol"es Cre'i!ility

No impact to cre'i!ility allies #onCt a!an'on &s an' a'"ersaries canCt e@ploit it Walt 11 (!te"hen, Professor of International Relations W @ar3ard 9ni3ersit&, LCoes the 9,!, still need to reassure its allies6M Foreign Polic&, 0)-I, htt"J--#alt,foreign"olic&,com-"osts-)*00-0)-*I-usQcredibilit&QisQnotQourQ"roblem, GCI File1 2 "erennial "reoccu"ation of 9,!, di"lomac& has been the "ercei3ed need to reassure allies of our reliabilit&, %hroughout the Cold Dar, 9,!, leaders #orried that an& loss of credibilit& might cause dominoes to fall, lead 5e& allies to $band#agon$ #ith the !o3iet 9nion, or result in some form of
$Finlandi=ation,$ !uch concerns Fustified fighting so-called $credibilit& #ars$ (including :ietnam1, #here the main concern #as not the direct sta5es of the contest but rather the need to retain a re"utation for resol3e and ca"abilit&, !imilar fears also led the 9nited !tates to de"lo& thousands of nuclear #ea"ons in Euro"e, as a su""osed counter to !o3iet missiles targeted against our N2%> allies, %he "ossibilit& that 5e& allies #ould abandon us #as almost al#ays e@aggerate', but 9,!,

leaders remain o3erl& sensiti3e to the "ossibilit&, !o :ice President 'oe 7iden has been out on the road this "ast #ee5, telling 3arious 9,!, allies that $the 9nited !tates isn8t going an&#here,$ (@e #asn8t suggesting #e8re stuc5 in a
rut, of course, but sa&ing that the imminent #ithdra#al from IraB doesn8t mean a retreat to isolationism or an&thing li5e that,1 %here8s nothing reall& #rong #ith offering u" this sort of comforting rhetoric, but I83e ne3er reall& understood #h&

9!!,!, leaders #ere so #orried about the credibilit& of our commitments to others, For starters, gi3en our remar5abl& secure geo"olitical "osition, #hether 9,!, "ledges are credible is first an' foremost a "roblem for those #ho are de"endent on 9,!, hel", De should therefore ta5e our allies8 occasional hints about realignment or neutralit& #ith some s5e"ticismN the& ha3e e3er& incenti3e to tr& to ma5e us #orr& about it, but in most cases little incenti3e to act&ally 'o it,

A+F (ol"es Economy

Latin America isnCt important to *( economic primacy; Bran' et al 1,, 2le/ander 7rand is 4ecturer and Post-Coc Researcher at the Ce"artment of
Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Main=, !usan McE#en-Fial is 4ecturer at the Ce"artment of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Main=, Dolfgang Muno is :isiting Professor of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Erfurt, 2ndrea Ribeiro @offmann is 4ecturer at the Dill& 7randt !chool of Public Polic&, 9ni3ersit& of Erfurt, (*.-)*0), L7RICs and 9,!, @egemon&J %heoretical ReVections on !hifting Po#er Patterns and Em"irical E3idence from 4atin 2mericaM,Main= Pa"ers on International and Euro"ean Politics (MPIEP1 Pa"er No, ., htt"J--international,"olitics,uni-main=,de-files-)*0)-0*-m"ie"*.,"df,FF1
In the economic dimension, the

9,!, still is 3er& im"ortant for 4atin 2merica, Dhat is more,S des"ite the acti3ities of traditional as&mmetricall& "atterned relationshi" still continues to e/istJ Dhile Latin America on t e # ole is not t e *2(2Cs most important tra'ing partner, 4atin 2merican states are still b& and large de"endent on their S e/"orts to the 9,!, mar5et W either hea3il& (Me/ico1 or to still im"ressi3e degrees, %he sameS is true for the 9,!, as the main source of FCI Vo#s to
7RIC states throughout the region, the 4atin 2mericaN although 7ra=ilian andS Chinese acti3ism is surging, it is still at a com"arati3el& lo# le3el, %hus, the 3er& "henomenaS that ha3e ca"tured the attention of anal&sts recentl& W Chinese FCI targeted to resource and infrastructure "roFects, intensiTed economic e/change bet#een e,g, 7ra=il and China themsel3es, S the gro#th of trade 3olumes bet#een China and 42 as #ell as 7ra=il and its regional neighborsS still do not, in essence and so far, signal a fundamental brea5 #ith the established "atterns ofS as&mmetrical economic relations bet#een the 9,!, and 4atin 2merica and hence, the strong 9,!, S inVuence in the region, In terms of monetar& and currenc& "olic&, the 9,!, "osition in terms ofS a dominance of the dollar throughout

4atin 2merica remains intact so far as #ell , %his meansS that Tscal and monetar& "olicies on behalf of the 9nited !tates still e/ert considerable inVuenceS #ithin the region, be the& intentionall& targeted at achie3ing certain outcomes or not, Economy is resilient MA5A9IA 0 (Fareed, Ph,C, in Political !cience W @ar3ard 9ni3ersit& and Editor W Ne#s#ee5 International, L%he !ecrets of !tabilit&M, Ne#s#ee5, 0)-)0, 4e/is1 >ne &ear ago, the #orld seemed as if it might be coming a"art , %he global financial s&stem, #hich had fueled a great e/"ansion of ca"italism and trade across the #orld, #as crumbling, 2ll the certainties of the age of
-globali=ation--about the 3irtues of free mar5ets, trade, and technolog&--#ere being called into Buestion, Faith in the 2merican model had colla"sed, %he financial industr& had crumbled, >nce-roaring emerging mar5ets li5e China, India, and 7ra=il #ere sin5ing, Dorld#ide trade #as shrin5ing to a degree not seen since the 0?E*s, Pundits #hose bearishness had been 3indicated

"redicted #e #ere doomed to a long, "ainful bust, #ith cascading failures in sector after sector, countr& after countr&, In a #idel& cited essa& that a""eared in %he 2tlantic this Ma&, !imon 'ohnson, former chief economist of the
International Monetar& Fund, #roteJ $%he con3entional #isdom among the elite is still that the current slum" 8cannot be as bad as the Great Ce"ression,8 %his 3ie# is #rong, Dhat #e face no# could, in fact, be #orse than the Great Ce"ression,$ >thers

"redicted that these economic shoc5s #ould lead to "olitical instabilit& and 3iolence in the #orst-hit countries, 2t
his confirmation hearing in Februar&, the ne# 9,!, director of national intelligence, 2dm, Cennis 7lair, cautioned the !enate that $the financial crisis and global recession are li5el& to "roduce a #a3e of economic crises in emerging-mar5et nations o3er the ne/t &ear,$ @illar& Clinton endorsed this grim 3ie#, 2nd she #as hardl& alone, Foreign Polic& ran a co3er stor& "redicting serious unrest in se3eral emerging mar5ets, >f one thing e3er&one #as sureJ nothing #ould e3er be the same again, Not the financial industr&, not ca"italism, not globali=ation, >ne &ear later, ho# much has the #orld reall& changed6 Dell, Dall !treet is home to t#o fe#er in3estment ban5s (three, if &ou count Merrill 4&nch1, !ome regional ban5s ha3e gone bust, %here #as some turmoil in Moldo3a and (entirel& unrelated to the financial crisis1 in Iran, !e3ere "roblems remain, li5e high unem"lo&ment in the Dest, and #e face ne# "roblems caused b& res"onses to the crisis--soaring debt and fears of inflation, 7ut o3erall, things loo5

nothing li5e the& did in the 0?E*s, %he "redictions of economic and "olitical colla"se ha3e not materiali=ed at all, 2 5e& measure of fear and fragilit& is the abilit& of "oor and unstable countries to borro# mone& on the debt mar5ets, !o consider thisJ the so3ereign bonds of tottering Pa5istan ha3e returned 0+X "ercent so far this &ear, 2ll this doesn8t add u" to a reco3er& &et, but it does reflect a return to some le3el of normalc&, 2nd that rebound has been so ra"id that e3en the shre#dest obser3ers remain "u==led, $%he
Buestion I ha3e at the bac5 of m& head is 8Is that it68 $ sa&s Charles Ka&e, the co-head of Darburg Pincus, $De had this huge crisis, and no# #e8re bac5 to business as usual6$ %his re3i3al did not ha""en because mar5ets managed to stabili=e themsel3es on their

o#n, Rather, go3ernments,

ha3ing learned the lessons of the Great Ce"ression, #ere determined not to re"eat the same mista5es once this crisis hit, 7& massi3el& e/"anding state su""ort for the econom&--through central ban5s and national treasuries--the& buffered the #orst of the damage , (Dhether the& made ne# mista5es in the "rocess remains to be seen,1 %he e/tensi3e social safet& nets that ha3e been established across the industriali=ed #orld also cushioned the "ain felt b& man&, %imes are still tough, but things are no#here near as bad as in the 0?E*s, #hen go3ernments "la&ed a tin& role in national economies, It8s true that the
massi3e state inter3entions of the "ast &ear ma& be fueling some ne# bubblesJ the chea" cash and go3ernment guarantees "ro3ided to ban5s, com"anies, and consumers ha3e fueled some irrational e/uberance in stoc5 and bond mar5ets, Get these rallies also

demonstrate the return of confidence, and confidence is a 3er& "o#erful economic force , Dhen
'ohn Ma&nard Ke&nes described his o#n "rescri"tions for economic gro#th, he belie3ed go3ernment action could "ro3ide onl& a tem"orar& fi/ until the real motor of the econom& started cran5ing again--the animal s"irits of in3estors, consumers, and com"anies see5ing ris5 and "rofit, 7e&ond all this, though, I belie3e ther e8s a fundamental reason #h& #e ha3e not faced

global colla"se in the last &ear, It is the same reason that #e #eathered the stoc5-mar5et crash of 0?X(, the recession of 0??), the 2sian crisis of 0??(, the Russian default of 0??X, and the tech-bubble colla"se of )***, %he current global economic s&stem is inherentl& more resilient than #e thin5, %he #orld toda& is characteri=ed b& three maFor forces for stabilit&, each reinforcing the other and
each historical in nature,

A+F (ol"es En"ironment

No e@tinction Easter!roo./ 4 ZLDe8re 2ll Gonna CieqM, htt"J--###,#ired,com-#ired-archi3e-00,*(-doomsda&,html6"gO0Pto"icOPto"icQsetOR If #e8re tal5ing about doomsda& - the end of human ci3ili=ation - man& scenarios sim"l& don8t measure u", 2 single nuclear bomb ignited b& terrorists, for e/am"le, #ould be a#ful be&ond #ords, but life #ould go on, Peo"le
and machines might con3erge in #a&s that &ou and I #ould find ghastl&, but from the stand"oint of the future, the& #ould "robabl& re"resent an ada"tation, En3ironmental colla"se might ma5e "arts of the globe un"leasant, but

considering that the bios"here has sur3i3ed ice ages, it #o&l'n7t !e t e final c&rtain,
Ce"ression, #hich has become 0* times more "re3alent in Destern nations in the "ost#ar era, might gro# so #ides"read that 3ast numbers of "eo"le #ould refuse to get out of bed, a "ossibilit& that Petrane5 suggested in a doomsda& tal5 at the %echnolog& Entertainment Cesign conference in )**), 7ut Marcel Proust, as miserable as he #as, #rote Remembrance of Things Past #hile l&ing in bed,

A+F (ol"es Glo!al Hegemony

Latin America not .ey to *( Hegemony Walton > (Cale C, Dalton H 4ecturer in International Relations and !trategic !tudies at the 9ni3ersit& of Reading W LGeo"olitics and Great Po#ers in the %#ent&-First Centur&M, "g, X htt"J--boo5s,google,com-boo5s6 idOu3GKm&5(%bgCP"gOP2()Pl"gOP2()PdBOGeo"oliticsYandYGreatYPo#ersYinYtheY%#ent &-FirstYCentur&PsourceOblPotsO/DDI>ab-?BPsigOR.C/9C)4K"NmGr?RR)e'9l+#@GPhlOenPsaOaPeiOE%Q49])G2ei7&#GtE.Cg7gP3edO*CEEg+2E#2gk 3Oone"agePBOlatin_)*americaPfOfalse1 !M Man& of the countries in other regions of the #orld W sub-!aharan 2frica, 4atin 2merica, Central 2merica, Central 2sia, and the Middle East W contain im"ortant resources, straddle trade routes, or are other#ise strategicall& note-#orth&, @o#e3er, none of these areas has the com"elling combination of #ealth, "o"ulation, and strategic geogra"h& that #ould ma5e them li5el& arenas for great "o#er com"etition #ith higher sta5es, >b3iousl&, much of the #orlds energ& reser3es are contained in the Middle East and
Central 2sia, but great "o#er com"etition in central Eurasia #ill be of a different character than on its eastern rim,

Heg 'oesnCt sol"e #ar2

)re!le 1? W director of foreign "olic& studies at the Cato Institute (Christo"her, L9,!, Militar& Po#erJ Preeminence for Dhat Pur"ose6M 2ugust )*0*, htt"J--###,cato-at-libert&,org-u-smilitar&-"o#er-"reeminence-for-#hat-"ur"ose-1 Most in Dashington still embraces the notion that 2merica is , and fore3er #ill be, the #orlds indis"ensable nation, !ome scholars, ho#e3er, Buestioned the logic of hegemonic stabilit& theor& from the 3er& beginning, 2 number continue to do so toda&, %he& ad3ance arguments diametricall& at odds #ith the "rimacist consensus, %rade routes need not be "oliced b& a single dominant "o#erN the international econom& is com"le/ and resilient, !u""l& disru"tions are li5el& to be tem"orar&, and the costs of mitigating their effects should be borne b& those #ho stand to lose H or gain H the most, Islamic e/tremists are scar&, but hardl& com"arable to the threat "osed b& a globe-straddling !o3iet 9nion armed #ith thousands of nuclear #ea"ons, It is fran5l& absurd that #e s"end more toda& to fight >sama bin 4aden and his tin& band of murderous thugs than #e s"ent to face do#n 'ose"h !talin and Chairman Mao, Man& factors ha3e contributed to the dramatic decline in the number of #ars bet#een nation-statesN it is unrealistic to e/"ect that a ne# s"asm of global conflict #ould eru"t if the 9nited !tates #ere to modestl& refocus its efforts, dra# do#n its militar& "o#er, and call on other countries to "la& a larger role in their o#n defense, and in the securit& of their res"ecti3e regions, 7ut #hile there are credible alternati3es to the 9nited !tates ser3ing in its current dual role as #orld "oliceman - armed social #or5er, the foreign "olic& establishment in Dashington has no interest in e/"loring them, %he "eo"le here ha3e gro#n accustomed to li3ing at the center of the earth, and indeed, of the uni3erse, %he tangible benefits of all this militar& s"ending flo# dis"ro"ortionatel& to this tin& corner of the 9nited !tates #hile the schlubs in fl&-o3er countr& "ic5 u" the tab,

A+F (ol"es H&man 9ig ts

+ ere are tons of alternati"e ca&salities t at #ill contin&e to &n'ermine &man rig ts )o#ell/ 8 W 2ssociate Professor of 4a# at Fordham 4a# !chool (Catherine Po#ell, 2merican Constitution !ociet& for 4a# P Public Polic& L@uman Rights at @omeJ 2 Comestic Polic& 7lue"rint for the Ne# 2dministration,M >ctober )**X, htt"J--###,acsla#,org-files-C_)*Po#ell_)*7lue"rint,"df1
E3en so, there remains a ga" bet#een the human rights ideals that the 9nited !tates "rofesses and its actual domestic "ractice, resulting in both a ga" in credibilit& and a #ea5ening of 9,!, moral authorit& to lead b& e/am"le, @uman rights include

the right to be free from torture or cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment, and &et the 9nited !tates has committed such acts in the name of counterterrorism efforts , @uman rights include the rights to emergenc& shelter, food, and #ater, as #ell as securit& of "erson, and &et the 9nited !tates failed to adeBuatel& guarantee these rights in the aftermath of @urricane Katrina, @uman rights include the right to eBualit& of o""ortunit&, and &et ineBualities "ersist in access to housing, education, Fobs, and health care, @uman rights include the right to eBualit& in the a""lication of la# enforcement measures, and &et there are gross racial dis"arities in the a""lication of the death "enalt&, and racial and ethnic "rofiling has been used unfairl& to target 2frican 2mericans, 4atinos, and those #ho a""ear 2rab, Muslim, !outh 2sian, or immigrant (#hether
through traffic sto"s, air"ort screening, or immigration raids1, @uman rights include the right to eBual "a& and gender eBualit&, and &et a "a& ga" "ersists bet#een female and male #or5ers, Certainl&, the Fourne& to full& reali=ing human rights is a #or5-in-"rogress, but to ma5e "rogress, #e must #or5 W through smart, "rinci"led "olicies that ad3ance the abilit& of the 9nited !tates to li3e u" to its o#n highest ideals,

A+F (ol"es Iran E@pansionism

Iran not p&rs&ing n&clear #eapons LNE+ 1,, (L2nd #hile Iran continues to enrich uranium at lo# le3els, 9! officials sa& the&
ha3e not seen e3idence that has caused them to significantl& re3ise that FudgmentMN htt"J--###,&netne#s,com-articles-*,(E.*,4-.0?.E*(,**,html1

2s the 9! and Israel "re"are for the >bama-Netan&ahu summit it a""ears that Dashington is tr&ing to ma5e it 3er& clearJ %ehran is not currentl& see5ing to build a nuclear bomb, >r at least, that is #hat a classified intelligence document mentioned in an 42 %imes re"ort states,S S 2 highl& classified 9! intelligence assessment circulated among "olic&ma5ers earl& last &ear largel& affirms the 3ie#, originall& made in )**(, 7oth re"orts, 5no#n as national intelligence estimates, conclude that Iran halted efforts to de3elo" and build a nuclear #arhead in )**E,%he 42 %imes goes on to claim that the most recent re"ort, #hich re"resents the consensus of 0+ 9! intelligence agencies, indicates that Iran is "ursuing research that could "ut it in a "osition to build a #ea"on, but t at it as not so&g t to 'o so,S 2nd #hile Iran continues to enrich uranium at lo# le3els, 9! officials sa& the& ha3e not seen e3idence that has caused them to significantl& re3ise that Fudgment,

Iran #o&l'nCt !e aggressi"e if t ey got n&clear #eapons; )illar 11, Paul Pillar is a )X-&ear 3eteran of the Central Intelligence 2genc&, a 3isiting

"rofessor at Georgeto#n 9ni3ersit& for securit& studies and a member of the Center for Peace and !ecurit& !tudies,(0)-))-00, LDorst-Casing and 7est-Casing IranMN htt"J--nationalinterest,org-blog-"aul-"illar-#orst-casing-best-casing-iran-+E*(,FF1 Kroenig8s article, li5e other #ar-"romoting "ieces, ne3er "ro3ides an& anal&sis to su""ort the oft-re"eated notion, #hich Kroenig himself re"eats, that "ossession of nuclear #ea"ons #ould someho# lead to Iran beha3ing more aggressi3el& in its region e3en if it ne3er actuall& fired the #ea"ons , Dalt notes that nuclear #ea"ons sim"l& don8t #or5 that #a&, I ha3e e/amined this "articular Buestion #ith regard to Iran, Rather than anal&sis, the notion of greater Iranian aggressi3eness is su""orted b& nothing more than a 3ague sense that someho# those nu5es ought to ma5e such a difference ,
Kroenig im"arts a "atina of Cold Dar res"ectabilit& to some of his assertions b& stating that Iran and Israel lac5 man& of the LsafeguardsM that 5e"t the 9nited !tates and the 9!!R out of a nuclear e/change, 7ut actuall& his "iece ignores the rich

and e/tensi3e bod& of strateg& and doctrine de3elo"ed during the Cold Dar that e/"lains things li5e escalation dominance and that underlies Dalt8s correct obser3ation about #hat nuclear #ea"ons can and cannot do, @erman Kahn, the Cold Dar8s foremost guru of escalation, #ould be rolling o3er in his
si=able gra3e if he could see #hat "asses for anal&sis in Kroenig8s "iece,

A+F (ol"es N&clear )o#er

+ eir e"i'ence is !ase' in me'ia !ias an' money;n&clear po#er canCt act&ally sol"e Grossman ?8, Karl Grossman is a Professor of Fournalism at the !tate 9ni3ersit& of Ne#
Gor5 College at >ld Destbur& (*)-*0-)**X, LMone& Is the Real Green Po#erJ %he hoa/ of eco-friendl& nuclear energ&MN htt"J--fair,org-e/tra-online-articles-mone&-is-thereal-green-"o#er-, FF1

Nuclear ad3ocates in go3ernment and the nuclear industr& are engaged in a massi3e, hea3il& financed dri3e to re3i3e atomic "o#er in the 9nited !tatesH#ith most of the mainstream media either not Buestioning or actuall& assisting in the "romotion,S LDith a 3er& fe# notable e/ce"tions, such as the 4os 2ngeles %imes, the 9,!, media ha3e turned the same sort of blind, uncritical e&e on the nuclear industr&s claims that led an earlier generation of 2mericans to belie3e atomic energ& #ould be too chea" to meter,M comments Michael Mariotte, e/ecuti3e director of the Nuclear Information and Resource !er3ice, L%he nuclear industr&s "ublic relations effort has im"ro3ed o3er the "ast I* &ears, #hile the natural s5e"ticism of re"orters to#ard cor"orate claims seems to ha3e disa""eared,M S %he Ne# Gor5 %imes continues to be, as it #as a half-centur& ago #hen nuclear technolog& #as first ad3anced, a media leader in "ushing the technolog&, #hich colla"sed in the 9,!, #ith the 0?(? %hree Mile Island and 0?X+ Chernob&l nuclear "lant accidents, %he %imes has sho#ered readers #ith a 3ariet& of "ieces ad3ocating a nuclear re3i3al, all marbled #ith omissions and untruths, 2 lead editorial headlined L%he Greening of Nuclear Po#erM (I-0E-*+1 o"enedJS Not so man& &ears ago, nuclear energ& #as a hobgoblin to en3ironmentalists, #ho feared the "otential for catastro"hic accidents and longterm radiation contamination, , , , 7ut this is a ne# era, dominated b& fears of tight energ& su""lies and global #arming, !uddenl& nuclear "o#er is loo5ing better,

N&clear po#er canCt sol"e glo!al #arming fast eno&g Lean ?E, staff#riter for the Inde"endent (Geoffre&, *+-)+-*., LNuclear Po#er 8Can8t !to"
Climate ChangeMN htt"J--###,commondreams,org-headlines*.-*+)+-*I,htm,FF1 Nuclear "o#er cannot sol3e global #arming, the international bod& set u" to "romote atomic energ& admits toda&, S %he International 2tomic Energ& 2genc& (I2E21, #hich e/ists to s"read the "eaceful use of the atom, re3eals in a ne# re"ort that it could not gro# fast enough o3er the ne/t decades to slo# climate change - e3en under the most fa3orable circumstances,S %he re"ort - "ublished to celebrate &esterda&8s I*th anni3ersar& of nuclear "o#er contradicts a recent surge of su""ort for the atom as the ans#er to global #arming ,S %hat surge #as
"ro3o5ed b& an article in %he Inde"endent last month b& Professor 'ames 4o3eloc5 - the creator of the Gaia theor& - #ho said that onl& a massi3e e/"ansion of nuclear "o#er as the #orld8s main energ& source could "re3ent climate change o3er#helming the globe,S Professor 4o3eloc5, a long-time nuclear su""orter, #roteJ $Ci3ili=ation is in imminent danger and has to use nuclear - the one safe, a3ailable, energ& source - no# or suffer the "ain soon to be inflicted b& our outraged "lanet,$ S @is comments #ere bac5ed b& !ir 7ernard Ingham, 4ad& %hatcher8s former PR chief, and other commentators, but ha3e no# been rebutted b& the most authoritati3e organi=ation on the matter,S 9nli5e fossil fuels, nuclear "o#er emits no carbon dio/ide, the main cause of climate change, @o#e3er, it has

long been in decline in the face of rising "ublic o""osition and increasing reluctance of go3ernments and utilities to finance its enormous construction costs ,S No ne# atomic "o#er station has been ordered in the 9! for a Buarter of a centur& , and onl& one is being built in
Destern Euro"e - in Finland, Mean#hile, German&, 7elgium, the Netherlands and !#eden ha3e all "ledged to "hase out e/isting "lants,S %he I2E2 re"ort considers t#o scenarios, In the first, nuclear energ& continues to decline, #ith no ne# stations built be&ond those alread& "lanned, Its share of #orld electricit& - and thus its relati3e contribution to fighting global #arming - dro"s from its current 0+ "er cent to 0) "er cent b& )*E*,S !ur"risingl&, it made an e3en smaller relati3e contribution to combating climate change under the I2E28s most fa3orable scenario, seeing nuclear "o#er gro# b& (* "er cent o3er the ne/t )I &ears, %his is because the #orld #ould ha3e to be so "ros"erous to afford the e/"ansions that traditional #a&s of generating electricit& from fossil fuels #ould ha3e gro#n e3en faster, Climate change #ould doom the "lanet before nuclear "o#er could sa3e it ,S 2lan

McConald, an I2E2 nuclear energ& anal&st, told %he Inde"endent on !unda& last nightJ $!a&ing that nuclear "o#er can sol3e global #arming b& itself is #a& o3er the to",$ 7ut he added that closing e/isting nuclear "o#er stations #ould ma5e tac5ling climate change harder,S

A+F (&stains Dil Depen'ence

Dil 'epen'ence ca&ses e@tinction Len'man/ > (!te"hen, reno#ned author and research associate at the Center for Research on Globali=ation, LResource Dars - Can De !ur3i3e %hem6M, 'ul& )**(, htt"J--###,rense,com-general(+--resrouce,htm1 bbb%his card edited to remo3e holocaust rhetoric #hich #e do not endorse Dith the #orld8s energ& su""lies finite, the 9! hea3il& de"endent on im"orts, and $"ea5 oil$ near or a""roaching, $securit&$ for 2merica means assuring a sustainable su""l& of #hat #e can8t do #ithout, It includes #aging #ars to get it, "rotect it, and defend the maritime trade routes o3er #hich it tra3els, %hat means energ&8s "artnered #ith "redator& Ne# Dorld >rder globali=ation, militarism, #ars, ecological rec5lessness, and no# an e/tremist 9! administration #illing to ris5 2rmageddon for #orld dominance, Central to its "lan is first controlling essential resources e3er&#here, at an& cost , starting #ith oil and #here most of it is located in the Middle East and Central 2sia, %he Ne# $Great Game$ and Perils From It %he ne# $Great Game8s$ begun, but this time the sta5es are greater than e3er as e/"lained abo3e, %he old one
lasted nearl& 0** &ears "itting the 7ritish em"ire against %sarist Russia #hen the issue #asn8t oil, %his time, it8s the 9! #ith hel" from Israel, 7ritain, the Dest, and satellite states li5e 'a"an, !outh Korea and %ai#an challenging Russia and China #ith toda&8s #ea"ons and technolog& on both sides ma5ing earlier ones loo5 li5e to&s, 2t sta5e is more than oil, It8s "lanet earth #ith

sur3i3al of all life on it issue number one t#ice o3er, Resources and #ars for them means militarism is increasing, "eace declining, and the "lanet8s abilit& to sustain life front and center, if an&one8s "a&ing attention, %he&8d better be because be&ond the "oint of no return, there8s no second chance the #a& Einstein e/"lained after the atom #as
s"lit, @is famous Buote on future #ars #as J $I 5no# not #ith #hat #ea"ons Dorld Dar III #ill be fought, but Dorld Dar I: #ill be fought #ith stic5s and stones,$ 9nder a #orst case scenario, it8s more dire than that, %here ma& be nothing left but resilient beetles and bacteria in the #a5e of a nuclear Zcatastro"heR meaning e3en a ne# stone age is #a& in the future, if at all, %he threat is real and once nearl& ha""ened during the Cuban Missile Crisis in >ctober, 0?+), De later learned a miracle sa3ed us at the .*th anni3ersar& >ctober, )**) summit meeting in @a3ana attended b& the 9! and Russia along #ith host countr& Cuba, For the first time, #e #ere told ho# close #e came to nuclear 2rmageddon, Ce3astation #as a3oided onl& because !o3iet submarine ca"tain :asil& 2r5hi"o3 countermanded his order to fire nuclear-ti""ed tor"edos #hen Russian submarines #ere attac5ed b& 9! destro&ers near Kenned&8s $Buarantine$ line, @ad he done it, onl& our imagination can s"eculate #hat might ha3e follo#ed and #hether "lanet earth, or at least a big "art of it, #ould ha3e sur3i3ed,

A+F (ol"es (oft )o#er

*nite' (tates soft po#er in Latin America empirically fails Bran' et al 1, (7rand, 2le/ander, 4ecturer and Post-Coc Researcher at the Ce"artment of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Main=, !usan McE#an-Fial, 4ecturer at the Ce"artment of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Main=, Dolfgang Muno, :isiting Professor of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Erfurt, and 2ndrea Ribeiro @offmann, 4ecturer at the Dill& 7randt !chool of Public Polic&, 9ni3ersit& of Erfurt, )*0), L7RICs and 9,!, @egemon&J %heoretical ReVections on !hifting Po#er Patterns and Em"irical E3idence from 4atin 2merica,M Main= Pa"ers on International and Euro"ean Politics, )*0)-*., Main=J Chair of International Relations, 'ohannes Gutenberg 9ni3ersit&, Google !cholar, htt"sJ--international,"olitics,unimain=,de-files-)*0)-0*-m"ie"*.,"df1--@24 !oft Po#er C&namics L!oft "o#erM, as described abo3e, might be related to conscious "ublic di"lomac& efforts as #ell as to an e/ternall& ascribed attracti3eness , In terms of "ublic di"lomac&, the 9,!, has not "rioriti=ed its outreach to 4atin 2merica throughout the last decade, %he Trst 3isit abroad b& then-President George D, 7ush led him to Me/ico, in Februar& )**0, #hich #as seen as a s&mbolic 3isit sho#ing high esteem for 4atin 2merica and #as the Trst of se3eral 3isits in the region (Crandall )**X1, 7ut soon, interest faded and other "roblems and regions #ere of higher "riorit&, >bama, besides summit meetings in GuadalaFara, Me/ico (N2F%21 and Port of !"ain and Cartagena (!ummit of the 2mericas1 Fust 3isited Me/ico in )**? and 7ra=il, Chile and El !al3ador in March )*00, @is Lcharm offensi3esM at the !ummit )**? in Port of !"ain, #here he declared a ne# era of L"artnershi" among eBualsM #as #idel& esteemed in 4atin 2merica, but #as onl& a tem"orar& e/ce"tion, 2dditionall&, the 9,!, is, to sa& the least, not at the forefront of institutional inno3ation in the region, so it might be more elucidating to loo5 for the le3el of attracti3eness ascribed to the 9,!, in the e&es of 4atin 2merican societies, *nite' (tates soft po#er terminally &ns&staina!le;C ina an' Bra6ilian soft po#er as fille' t e gap Bran' et al 1, W 2le/ander, 4ecturer and Post-Coc Researcher at the Ce"artment of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Main=, !usan McE#an-Fial, 4ecturer at the Ce"artment of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Main=, Dolfgang Muno, :isiting Professor of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Erfurt, and 2ndrea Ribeiro @offmann, 4ecturer at the Dill& 7randt !chool of Public Polic&, 9ni3ersit& of Erfurt, )*0), (L7RICs and 9,!, @egemon&J %heoretical ReVections on !hifting Po#er Patterns and Em"irical E3idence from 4atin 2merica,M Main= Pa"ers on International and Euro"ean Politics, )*0)-*., Main=J Chair of International Relations, 'ohannes Gutenberg 9ni3ersit&, Google !cholar, htt"sJ--international,"olitics,unimain=,de-files-)*0)-0*-m"ie"*.,"df1--@24 2gain, since 9,!, Lsoft "o#erM in the region toda& might not be directl& related to 9,!, foreign and regional "olicies or resulting from such "olicies in the Trst "lace , it seems interesting to loo5 for acti3ities of
China and 7ra=il in this regard, !ince @us "romotion of soft "o#er in )**(, Chinese scholars and ofTcials ha3e debated the e/act deTnitions of soft "o#er, 0+ In line #ith an emerging strateg&, Chinese leaders ha3e e/"anded their ties

#ith 4atin 2merica, For e/am"le, Chinese leaders and their 4atin 2merican counter"arts ha3e often e/changed 3isits during the "ast ten &ears, Curing his time in "o#er, @u 'intao has 3isited the continent four times, #hile his assumed successor, ai 'in"ing 3isited the region in )**? and )*00, 7& )**X, Chinese leaders had 3isited 0? 4atin 2merican countries and (. 4atin 2merican leaders had 3isited China ('iang )*00J .E1, 2side from this, China is tr&ing to build u" its image through the establishment of language institutes, !"anish-s"ea5ing tele3ision, the s"onsoring of student e/change "rograms and its general image of a successful de3elo"ing countr&, 2ll the same, Chinas soft "o#er in 4atin 2merica remains
limited des"ite Chinas efforts to raise its cultural "roTle in 4atin 2merica due to language and distance issues, For e/am"le, b& )*00, China had established o3er )* Confucius institutes throughout the region to "romote the stud& of Chinese language and culture (@anban )*0)1, Moreo3er, in !e"tember )*00 China, in "artnershi" #ith the >2!, began to offer scholarshi"s for students to stud&

in China, In addition, the China !cholarshi" Council has recruiting ofTces throughout 4atin 2merica (7liss )**?1, It also funded the >2!-C2RIC>M Electoral >bser3ation in @aiti (C2RIC>M )*001, China has also established CC%: in !"anish, broadcasting throughout the region, Furthermore, it has Fust established a ne# "rogram out of Dashington called 2mericas No#, #hich features re"orts from throughout 4atin 2merica and the 9,!, (F% )*0)b1, China has also made countries such as Cuba,

2rgentina, Me/ico, 7ra=il, Chile, Peru and :ene=uela a""ro3ed destinations for tourism (7liss
)**?1, @o#e3er, unli5e the 9,!,, e/changes and immigration to and from 4atin 2merica remain limited for a number of reasons, including distance and lac5 of historical connections, In terms of international education, neither China nor 4atin 2merica constitute a to" "riorit& for students of these t#o regions, 2ccording to the China !cholarshi" Council, the to" destinations for Chinese students in )**? #ere the 9,!,, 2ustralia, the 9,K,, !outh Korea, 'a"an, Canada, !inga"ore, Ne# ]ealand, France and Russia (IEE )*0)1, %he main sources for foreign students in China in )**? #as !outh Korea, the 9,!,, 'a"an, :ietnam, %hailand, Russia, India, Indonesia, Ka=a5hstan, and Pa5istan (ibid,1, @ence, no 4atin 2merican countr& a""ears on the list as a "rimar& origin for foreign students in China, %hus, in com"arison to the outVo# of 4atin 2merican students to the 9,!,, China still "ales in com"arison, Dhere China has been more successful is the general "erce"tion that China #ill be a

great "o#er, 2s Ellis argues, this "ull of Chinas "otential gi3es the countr& another 5ind soft "o#er that is harder to Buantif&
(Ellis )*00aJ XI1, In the Pe# Global 2ttitudes !ur3e& of )*00, IE_ "olled in Me/ico sa# China as either ha3ing re"laced or #ill re"lace the 9,!, o3er as a global su"er"o#er, %he "ercentage in 7ra=il #as E(_ (PED )*001, @o#e3er, des"ite Chinas efforts to raise its "roTle in 4atin 2merica, "ublic "erce"tion is mi/ed, For e/am"le, dis"utes ha3e arisen in countries such as Peru o3er com"ensation and the en3ironment (7liss )**?J +01, %he Pe# sur3e& demonstrates the range in attitudes concerning China #ith !outhern Cone countries li5e 7ra=il generall& more fa3orable to China at .?_ in )*00, do#n from I)_ in )*0* (PED )*001, 2 countr& such as Me/ico #hich does not beneTt as much economicall& from the relationshi" onl& had a fa3orabilit& rating to#ards China of E?_ in both )*0* and )*00 (ibid,1, %his lag in soft "o#er has been ac5no#ledged b& Chinese 4atin 2merican e/"erts (!un )*0*1, It seems that so far, China has not been able to LcharmM 4atin 2merica, 7urges deTnes 7ra=ilian acti3ism as a

leadershi" "roFect based on the conce"t of consensual hegemon&, in #hich Lthe central idea is the construction of a structural 3ision, or hegemon&, 0+ !ee Glaser-Mur"h& ()**?1 for a discussion on this
subFect, %he Chinese tend to fold "ublic di"lomac& into soft "o#er (see !hambaugh )*001, @o#e3er for the sa5e of anal&tical clarit&, this anal&sis #ill consider institutional "o#er as se"arate from soft "o#er, 0(7RICs and 9,!, @egemon&J !hifting Po#er Patterns and Em"irical E3idence from 4atin 2merica that s"eciTcall& includes the nominall& subordinate, engaging in a "rocess of dialogue and interaction that causes the subordinate "arties to a""ro"riate and absorb the substance and reBuisites of the hegemon& as their o#nM, #ithout rel&ing on force (7urges )**XJ +I1, %he data "resented in this "a"er is in line #ith the argument ad3anced b& authors #or5ing on 7ra=ilian leadershi" that the countr& cannot "erform the traditional, i,e, militar& and economic t&"es of hegemon& gi3en its relati3e ca"abilities limitations and the domestic instabilit& deri3ed from economic ineBualit& and &oung democratic regime (4ima-@irst )**+N Malamud )**?N :ieira )*001, In this sense, the conce"t of consensual hegemon&, #hich

corres"onds to a large e/tent #ith the conce"t of soft "o#er as deTned in this "a"er, fulTlls the ga" to understand 7ra=ilian role in 4atin 2merica, or rather, !outh 2merica, 2 combination of mostl& soft "o#er #ith institutional acti3ism seems to sustain the 7ra=ilian claim for leadershi" ,
!ome le3erage of militar& and economic "o#er contributes to su""ort that claim, but the& are not enough to consolidate a hegemonic role for 7ra=il in !outh 2merica, If 7ra=il #anted to "resent itself as a ri3al to the 9,!, or "erha"s China in the future, Lsoft "o#erM is a central conce"t, %he content of this soft "o#er strateg& does not include traditional cultural "olicies such as media and the creation of cultural institutes abroad, %his has been seen b& some di"lomats as a handica", and "ro"osals to e/"lore it more thoroughl& are being currentl& discussed, %he 7ra=ilian di"lomat Edgar %elles Ribeiro argues for a re3ision of the lac5 of a more strategic cultural foreign "olic&, as5ing if Lthe international insertion of the countr& #ould not beneTt from -as an additional element, and in light of the e/"erience of de3elo"ed countries , , , , a cultural engagement abroad characteri=ed b& more substance, continuit& and com"rehensi3enessM (Ribeiro )*00J XX1, 2s for state 3isits, the number is e/tremel& high, es"eciall& in com"arison #ith the 9,!, and China, !outh 2merican "residents and lo#er ran5s 3isit themsel3es regularl& both bilaterall& and multilaterall& in the conte/t of Mercosur and 9N2!9R for instance, 2cademic e/change is also common both at the student and staff le3el, 7ra=ilian uni3ersities are no com"etitors to their 9,!, counter"arts for !outh 2merican students, but there is a certain Vo# gi3en better structural conditions, %he data for 4atin 2merican immigrants in 7ra=il sho# an increase from 0?+* (+E,.(.1 to 0??0 (00X,+*+1 to )*** (0..,I)X1, 2ccording to MarBues and 4ima ()*001, the e/"ectation for the demogra"hic census of )*0) is that of a further increase, 2s for the nationalities, the "attern remained stable o3er the &ears, in )*** the Trst grou" #as of 2rgentinean origin ()0,._1, follo#ed b& Paragua&ans (0X,+_1 and 9rugua&ans (0+ _1, %he soft "o#er a""roach "ursued b& 7ra=il so

far has consisted rather in the 3er& "romotion of a debate on the legitimac& of the international order and the demand for a more consensual, democratic, legitimate international order , %o the
e/tent that the criticism of the contem"orar& status Buo is based on the claim of the unfair, dis"ro"ortional and as&mmetric "osition of Destern "o#ers in general, and the 9,!, in "articular, the 7ra=ilian leadershi" "roFect is based on a com"etition #ith the 9,!, role in the region, @o#e3er, the substanti3e "riorities of the 7ra=ilian foreign "olic& are not that di3ergent from that of the 9,!,N the "roblem is distributi3e rather than substanti3e, 2s alread& mentioned, the central "illars of 7ra=ilian foreign "olic& are a "reference of di"lomatic settlement of dis"utes, the res"ect of international la#, so3ereignt&, non-inter3ention and multilateralism, %he

"romotion of democrac& and human rights has become a "riorit& since democrati=ation and central to the "resent administration of Cilma Roussef, E/ce"t for 7ra=ils resistance against conce"ts regarding res"onsibilit& to "rotect and "re3enti3e inter3ention, these are actuall& Buite Destern "illars and "riorities, %he contradiction bet#een these aims might "ose a challenge to 7ra=ilian foreign "olic&
and its hegemonic bid (!antiso )**EN Ribeiro @offmann )*001, and this inconsistenc& might undermine the soft "o#er a""roach, but so far, it has contributed to the "ercei3ed legitimac& of its hegemon& in !outh 2merica,

*2(2 legitimacy is resilient an' #ill reco"er 5agan/ ?$ (Robert, senior fello# at the Carnegie Endo#ment for International Peace, %he Dashington Post, 0-0I, htt"J--###,carnegieendo#ment,org-"ublications-inde/,cfm6 faO3ie#PidO0(X?.P"rogO=g"P"roFO=usr1 %his does not mean the 9nited !tates has not suffered a relati3e decline in that intangible but im"ortant commodit&J legitimac&, 2 combination of shifting geo"olitical realities, difficult circumstances and some ine"t "olic& has certainl& damaged 2merica8s standing in the #orld, Get, des"ite e3er&thing, the 2merican "osition in the #orld has not deteriorated as much as "eo"le thin5, 2merica still $stands alone as the #orld8s indis"ensable nation,$ as Clinton so humbl& "ut it in 0??(, It can resume an effecti3e leadershi" role in the #orld in fairl& short order, e3en during the "resent administration and certainl& after the )**X election, regardless of #hich "art& #ins, %hat is a good thing, because gi3en the gro#ing dangers in the #orld, the intelligent and effecti3e e/ercise of 2merica8s bene3olent global hegemon& is as im"ortant as e3er,

A+F (ol"es +errorism

*( Heg in Latin America 'oesn7t pre"ent terrorism an' only trains 'ictators to .ill t eir o#n people in t e name of s&pporting t e *( Emerson/ 1? W PhC from the 2N9 !chool of !ocial !ciences, studied Communication Cesign in Melbourne, before mo3ing to Canberra to stud& International Relations at the 2N9 in )**+, he has studied in Me/ico and Chile, and is currentl& associated #ith the 2ustralian National Centre for 4atin 2merican !tudies (2NC42!1, at the 2N9 (Gu&, LRadical Neglect6 %he LDar on %errorM and 4atin 2merica,M 42%IN 2MERIC2N P>4I%IC! 2NC !>CIE%G, :olume I), Issue 0, "ages EEW+), !"ring )*0*, March Xth, )*0*, '!%>R1--@24 2fter a brief dro" in )**0, 9,!, militar& s"ending in 4atin 2merica has increased significantl& (figure 01, 7eginning in the "eriod )**IW)**(, I countries in the region #ere among the to" )* global reci"ients of 9,!, militar& assistance ('ust the Facts )**(1,0* In addition, bet#een )**0 and )**I, XI,X)* 4atin 2merican soldiers #ere
trained in the 9nited !tates, %his com"ares #ith the +0,*** soldiers and "olice trained b& the infamous !chool of the 2mericas bet#een 0?.+ and )*** (%o5atlian )**X1, %he Fustification for the increase in s"ending #as made through

reference to the LDar on %error,M !outhcom Commander General 'ames @ill declared, Las #ith e3er& other combatant
commander, the #ar on terrorism is m& number one "riorit&M (cited b& Ci"online )**., E1, 2dditionall&, in his )**. Posture !tatement, General @ill asserted that Lterrorists throughout the !outhern Command area of

res"onsibilit& bomb, murder, 5idna", traffic drugs, transfer arms, launder mone&, and smuggle humansM (cited b& Ci"online )**., E1, %hese statements ha3e had direct "olic& im"lications, Cubbed Leffecti3e so3ereignt&,M the "olic& "romoted b& the Pentagon contends that 9,!, national securit& is threatened b& 4atin 2merican go3ernments failure to e/ercise control o3er the 3ast Lungo3erned s"acesM #ithin their borders, 2s General @ill e/"lained in March )**E, Ltoda&s foe is the terrorist, the
narcotraffic5er, the arms traffic5er, the document forger, , , , %his threat is a #eed that is "lanted, gro#n and nurtured in the fertile ground of ungo3erned s"aces such as coastlines, ri3ers and un"o"ulated border areasM (@ill )**E1, %his "olic& "osition #as reinforced b& thenWsecretar& of defense Conald Rumsfeld, L%errorists and transnational criminals,M he

remar5ed, Loften find shelter in border regions or areas be&ond the effecti3e reach of go3ernment, %he& #atch, the& "robe, loo5ing for areas of 3ulnerabilit&, for #ea5nesses, and for seams in our collecti3e securit& arrangements that the& can tr& to e/"loitM (cited b& Isacson )**I1, %hese statements "aint 4atin 2merica as a Lsoft underbell&M for the terrorist grou" 2l-gaeda to mount attac5s on the continental 9nited !tates (!teinit= )**E1, :ie#ed from a historical "ers"ecti3e, the "olic& of Leffecti3e so3ereignt&M is the latest 3ersion of the Linternal enem&M threat circulated during the Cold Dar, Part of the 9,!, national securit& doctrine to combat local communism in 4atin 2merica, defense against the internal enem& had t#o intert#ined com"onentsJ militar& training and the teaching of the national securit& doctrine (Dright )**(1, In addition to a Buantitati3e increase in o"erational training, the teaching of the
national securit& doctrine Bualitati3el& reoriented militar& training b& situating the internal enem& as the chief threat to national securit&, %his ne# method of training a' 'angero&s reperc&ssions, Militar& dictatorshi"s in

the region a""ro"riated the language of the Linternal enem&M and e/"anded it to include unions, o""osition "art& leaders, human rights defenders, Fournalists, authors, and leftist intellectuals, and to Fustif& the censure of democratic institutions (%o5atlian )**XN Isacson )**I1, Dhile this threat is less a""arent toda&, the "olic& of Leffecti3e so3ereignt&M sets a dangerous "recedent in 4atin 2merica, 2t its most fundamental, Leffecti3e so3ereignt&M establishes the ideological and "h&sical tools necessar& for regional militaries to undermine ci3ilian authorities (4obe )**.N Isacson )**I1, Central to
this danger is the ris5 of "olitici=ing the armed forces b& #idening their res"onsibilit& to fight- ing crime or other roles that ci3ilians can "erform, %he mono"ol& the militar& de3elo"s on the use of force (or the threat of force1 means

that #hen it disagrees #ith the ci3ilian consensus there is a heightened "ossibilit& of 3iolence
(Ci"online )**.1, %his line has further blurred as !outhcom, traditionall& a trainer of defense "ersonnel, has en3isaged a greater role for itself in the training of regional "olice forces (Ci"online )**X1,00 %he a""lication of the LDar on %errorM

"aradigm through Leffecti3e so3ereignt&M strengthens the militar&, securit&, and intelligence forces that ha3e historicall& "osed a danger to democrac& #hile also #ea5ening ci3ilian and democratic institutions (Ciamint )**.1, Far from acting as a ne# "aradigm, ho#e3er, the in3ocation of Leffecti3e so3ereignt&M and the re"olitici=ation of the Linternal enem&M reflect a continuit& of logic bet#een

the LDar on %errorM and "re3ious Cold Dar a""roaches, 'ust as the Linternal enem&M historicall& "ro3ided a
Fustification for continued 9,!, in3ol3ement in militar& and "olitical bodies throughout 4atin 2merica, so does Leffecti3e so3ereignt&M toda&, %his continuit& is illustrated in reference to the Dar on Crugs and Plan Colombia, in #hich the "ur"orted ne# securit& discourse associated #ith the LDar on %errorM a""ears to be based firml& in an old threat anal&sis,

Mero ris. of n&clear terrorism C apman 1, I-)), b!te"hen Cha"man is a columnist and editorial #riter for the Chicago %ribune, LC@2PM2NJ Nuclear
terrorism unli5el&,M htt"J--###,oaoa,com-articles-cha"man-X((0?-nuclear-terrorism,html, 2' E3er since !e"t, 00, )**0, 2mericans ha3e had to li3e #ith the 5no#ledge that

the ne/t time the terrorists stri5e, it could be not #ith air"lanes ca"able of 5illing thousands but atomic bombs ca"able of 5illing hundreds of thousands, %he "ros"ect has created a sense of "rofound 3ulnerabilit&, It has sha"ed our 3ie# of go3ernment "olicies aimed at combating terrorism (filtered through 'ac5 7auer1, It hel"ed mobili=e su""ort for the IraB #ar, Dh& are #e #orried6 7omb designs can be found on the Internet, Fissile
material ma& be smuggled out of Russia, Iran, a longtime s"onsor of terrorist grou"s, is tr&ing to acBuire nuclear #ea"ons, 2 la&"erson ma& figure its onl& a matter of time before the unimaginable comes to "ass, @ar3ards Graham 2llison, in his boo5 LNuclear %errorism,M concludes, L>n the current course, nuclear terrorism is ine3itable,M 7ut rememberJ 2fter !e"t, 00,

)**0, #e all thought more attac5s #ere a certaint&, Get al-gaida and its ideological 5in ha3e "ro3ed &na!le to mo&nt a secon' stri.e, Gi3en their inabilit& to do something sim"le H sa&, shoot u" a sho""ing mall or set off a truc5 bomb H its reasonable to as5 #hether the& ha3e a chance at something much more ambitious, Far from being "lausible, argued >hio !tate 9ni3ersit& "rofessor 'ohn Mueller in a "resentation at the 9ni3ersit& of Chicago, Lt e li.eli oo' t at a terrorist gro&p #ill come &p #it an atomic !om! seems to !e "anis ingly small ,M %he e3ents reBuired to ma5e that ha""en com"rise a multitude of @erculean tas5s, First, a terrorist grou" has to get a bomb or fissile material, "erha"s from Russias in3entor& of decommissioned #arheads, If that #ere eas&, one #ould ha3e alread& gone missing, 7esides, those de3ices are "robabl& no longer a danger, since #ea"ons that are not maintained Buic5l& become #hat one e/"ert calls Lradioacti3e scra" metal,M If terrorists #ere able to steal a Pa5istani bomb, the& #ould still ha3e to defeat the arming codes and other safeguards designed to "re3ent unauthori=ed use, 2s for Iran, no nuclear state has e3er gi3en a bomb to an all& H for reasons e3en the Iranians can gras", !tealing some 0** "ounds of bomb fuel #ould reBuire hel" from rogue indi3iduals inside some go3ernment #ho are "re"ared to Feo"ardi=e their o#n li3es, %hen comes the tas5 of building a bomb, Its not something &ou can gin u" #ith s"are "arts and "o#er tools in &our garage, It reBuires millions of dollars, a safe ha3en and ad3anced eBui"ment H "lus "eo"le #ith s"eciali=ed s5ills, lots of time and a #illingness to die for the cause, 2ssuming the Fihadists 3ault o3er those @imala&as, the& #ould ha3e to deli3er the #ea"on onto 2merican soil , !ure, drug smugglers bring in contraband all the time H but see5ing their hel" #ould confront the "lotters #ith "ossible e/"osure or e/tortion, %his, li5e e3er& other ste" in the entire "rocess, means e/"anding the circle of "eo"le #ho 5no# #hats going on, multi"l&ing the chance someone #ill blab, bac5 out or scre# u", %hat has heartening im"lications, If al-gaida embar5s on the "roFect, it has onl& a minuscule chance of seeing it bear fruit, Gi3en the formidable odds, it pro!a!ly #onCt !ot er, None of this means #e should sto" tr&ing to minimi=e the ris5 b& securing nuclear stoc5"iles, monitoring terrorist communications and im"ro3ing "ort screening, 7ut it offers good reason to thin5 that in this #ar, it a""ears, the #orst e"ent&ality is one t at #ill ne"er appen,

*** LA HEG GDDD

(&staina!le ,AC
%aintaining egemonic infl&ence in Latin America is still possi!le in'icators of 'ecline are e@aggerate' D&''y/ 14 (Patric5, 9,!, ambassador to :ene=uela from )**( until )*0* and is currentl& 3isiting senior lecturer at Cu5e 9ni3ersit&, and Fran5 >, Mora, incoming director of the 4atin 2merican and Caribbean Center, Florida International 9ni3ersit&, and former de"ut& assistant secretar& of Cefense, Destern @emis"here, L4atin 2mericaJ Is 9,!, influence #aning6N DE!%ERN @EMI!P@ERE,M %he Miami @erald, I-0-0E, le/is, %ashma1 2s President >bama tra3els to Me/ico and Costa Rica, its li5el& the "undits #ill once again underscore #hat some "ercei3e to be the eroding influence of the 9nited !tates in the Destern @emis"here, !ome #ill "oint to
the decline in foreign aid or the absence of an o3erarching "olic& #ith an ins"iring moni5er li5e L2lliance for ProgressM or LEnter"rise 2rea of the 2mericasM as e3idence that the 9nited !tates is failing to embrace the o""ortunities of a region that is more im"ortant to this countr& than e3er, %he realit& is a lot more com"licated, Fort&-t#o "ercent of all 9,!,

e/"orts flo# to the Destern @emis"here, In man& #a&s, *2(2 engagement in t e Americas is more per"asi"e t an e"er, e3en if more diffused, %hat is in "art because the "eo"les of the Destern @emis"here are
not #aiting for go3ernments to choreogra"h their interactions, 2 more-nuanced assessment ine3itabl& #ill highlight the com"le/, multidimensional ties bet#een the 9nited !tates and the rest of the hemis"here, In fact, it ma& be that #e need to change the #a& #e thin5 and tal5 about the countries of 4atin 2merica and the Caribbean, De also need to resist the tem"tation to embrace o3erl& reducti3e &ardstic5s for Fudging our standing in the hemis"here, 2s Moises Naim notes in his recent boo5, %he End of Po#er, there has been an im"ortant change in "o#er distribution in the #orld a#a& from states to#ard an e/"anding and increasingl& mobile set of actors that are dramaticall& sha"ing the nature and sco"e of global relationshi"s, In 4atin 2merica, man& of the most substanti3e and d&namic forms of engagement are occurring in a #eb of cross-national relationshi"s in3ol3ing small and large com"anies, "eo"le-to-"eo"le contact through student e/changes and social media, tra3el and migration, %rade and in3estment

remain the most enduring and measurable dimensions of 9,!, relations #ith the region, It is certainl& the case that our economic interests alone #ould Fustif& more 9,!, attention to the region, Man& obser3ers #ho #orr& about declining 9,!, influence in this area "oint to the rise of trade #ith China and the "resence of Euro"ean com"anies and in3estors, Dhile it is true that other countries are im"ortant to the economies of 4atin 2merica and the Caribbean, it is also still true that the 9nited !tates is b& far the largest and most im"ortant economic "artner of the region and trade is gro#ing e3en #ith those countries #ith #hich #e do not ha3e free trade agreements, 2n
area of immense im"ortance to regional economies that #e often o3erloo5 is the e/"onential gro#th in tra3el, tourism and migration, It is common"lace to note the enormous "resence of foreign students in the 9nited !tates but in )*00, according to the Institute of International Education, after Euro"e, 4atin 2merica #as the second most "o"ular destination for 9,!, uni3ersit& students, @undreds of thousands of 9,!, tourists tra3el e3er& &ear to 4atin 2merica and the Caribbean hel"ing to su""ort thousands of Fobs, From )**+-)*00 9,!, non-go3ernment organi=ations, such as churches, thin5 tan5s and uni3ersities increased

the number of "artnershi"s #ith their regional cohorts b& a factor of four, Remittances to 4atin 2merica and the Caribbean from the 9nited !tates totaled [+. billion in )*0), Particularl& for the smaller
economies of Central 2merica and the Caribbean these flo#s can sometimes constitute more than 0* "ercent of gross domestic "roduct, Finall&, one should not underestimate the resilienc& of 9,!, soft "o#er in the region, %he "o#er of national

re"utation, "o"ular culture, 3alues and institutions continues to contribute to 9,!, influence in #a&s that are difficult to measure and im"ossible to Buantif&, E/am"leJ Ces"ite 0. &ears of
strident anti-2merican rhetoric during the ChA3e= go3ernment, tens of thousand of :ene=uelans a""l& for 9,!, nonimmigrant 3isas e3er& &ear, including man& thousands of ChA3e= lo&alists,

+ e *2(2 can maintain egemonic infl&ence in Latin America if it plays its car's rig t imme'iate action is .ey <alencia/ 11 (Robert, C>@2 Research Fello#, L2fter 7in 4adens Cemise, 2re 9,!,-4atin 2merican Relations 2t 7a& 2gain6,M Council on @emis"heric 2ffairs, I-)*-00, htt"J--###,coha,org-after-bin-ladens-demise-are-u-s-latin-american-relations-at-ba&-again-, %ashma1 Ne3ertheless, President >bama attem"ted to #arm relations #ith 4atin 2merica in the earl& months of his administration, Case in "ointJ !i/t& da&s after being s#orn in, he attended the fifth !ummit of the 2mericas in %rinidad

and %obago, stating that the meeting offered Lthe o""ortunit& of a ne# beginningM for the 2mericas, e3en e/"ressing o""osition to the militar& cou" in @onduras, Most recentl&, >bama eased tra3el restrictions to Cuba and "lanned a tri" to !outh 2merica, tra3eling to 7ra=il, Chile, and El !al3adorHe3en in the midst of the 4ib&an crisisHleading some to belie3e that he might continue for#ard #ith his regional initiati3es, @o#e3er, 9,!, commitment to 4atin 2merica #ill hardl& face the burden

of "roof in the &ears to come, %he >bama administration must choose #isel& in their re"lacement of 2rturo :alen=uela,
#ho recentl& ste""ed do#n as the 9,!, 2ssistant !ecretar& of !tate for Destern @emis"here 2ffairs after a some#hat lac5luster tenure in that "osition, In addition, 9,!, trade deals #ith "ermanentl& 3iolent Colombia and eternall& corru"t Panama #ill be 3oted on b& Congress and the >bama administration in 2ugust, %his #ill result in a long o3erdue endorsement that #ill, for man& Colombians, seal a "ledge to Dashingtons most strategic all& in !outh 2merica, !ome of the administrations critics argue that, almost cons"iratoriall&, the 9,!, is far more interested in s#ee"ing 7ogotAs human rights derelictions under the rug in order to get ahead #ith its free trade #ishes #ith Colombia, It seems as though 2mericas economic interests trum" its desire to carr& out a good faith e/amination of Colombias chronicall& s"ott& human rights "erformance in order to resol3e the matter honestl&, 2lso, the most urgent issue for the 9nited !tates, #hen it comes to Me/ico, Central 2merica, and Colombia, is the #ar on drugs, In addition to the long-running Plan Colombia funding, the 9,!, has "ledged the disbursement of the Merida Initiati3e budget, allocated for 9!C 0,+ billion, to Me/ican and Central 2merican authorities attem"ting to control drug smuggling into the 9nited !tates , In this "ost-

bin 4aden era, President >bama must not onl& mend fences #ith the Middle East and ca"itali=e global efforts #ith current and emerging "o#ers, but must also o3ercome the stigma that correlates 4atin 2merica #ith a longbro5en fi/ture s#inging in the 9nited !tates "erennial Lbac5&ard,M @e can begin to do so b& e/tending a brand of "ros"erit& and securit& that is more false than true, #hich #ill in turn continue to distress the 9nited !tates #ith socioeconomic strife along the immediate borders of the region,

(&staina!le Economic Infl&ence

+ e *2(2 still as economic 'ominance o"er t e region C ina is a small c allenger (a!atini/ 14 (Christo"her, Editor in Chief of 2mericas guarterl& and !enior Cirector of Polic& at the 2mericas !ociet& and the Council of the 2mericas, LDI44 42%IN 2MERIC2 MI!! 9,!, @EGEM>NG6,M 'ournal of International 2ffairs, :olume ++, Issue ), !"ring )*0E, "g, 0-a:I, ProBuest, %ashma1 If the economic influence of the 9nited !tates has declined in the region, ho#e3er, its long-term "o#er - economic and "olitical - remains, + e attention on C ina7s historic economic presence in the hemis"here as o"erloo.e' the *nited (tates8 contin&e' economic 'ominance in t e region, both in terms of its trade and the 3alue of its mar5et, In )*00, trade bet#een the 9nited !tates, 4atin 2merica, and the Caribbean totaled [X** billion, and the 3olume of o3erall 4atin 2merican trade #ith the 9nited !tates is still greater than #ith China - and much of that is in manufactured goods,0E %he
goods China consumes from 4atin 2merica are "rimaril& commodities - #ith little 3alue added, 2t the same time, Chinese manufactured e/"orts - man& of them made #ith the commodities "roduced b& the region - com"ete directl& on the global mar5et #ith higher end goods "roduced b& 7ra=il and other emerging economies in the region,0.

(&staina!le %ilitary )o#er

*( ar'po#er in Latin America is ig -!asing an' regional sec&rity agreements Bran' et al 1,, 2le/ander 7rand is 4ecturer and Post-Coc Researcher at the Ce"artment of

Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Main=,!usan McE#en-Fial is 4ecturer at the Ce"artment of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Main=, Dolfgang Muno is :isiting Professor of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Erfurt, 2ndrea Ribeiro @offmann is 4ecturer at the Dill& 7randt !chool of Public Polic&, 9ni3ersit& of Erfurt, (*.-)*0), L7RICs and 9,!, @egemon&J %heoretical ReVections on !hifting Po#er Patterns and Em"irical E3idence from 4atin 2mericaM,Main= Pa"ers on International and Euro"ean Politics (MPIEP1 Pa"er No, ., htt"J--international,"olitics,uni-main=,de-files-)*0)-0*-m"ie"*.,"df,FF1
2dditionall&, the

9nited !tates is the onl& non-regional countr& #ith a "ermanent militar& S "resence in 4atin 2merica, 2ccording to ofTcial Pentagon data, there is acti3e militar& "ersonnel in e3er& 4atin 2merican countr&, in sum about ),*** soldiers (9!C>C )*0)1, %he mostS im"ortant bases are GuantAnamo in Cuba and
!oto Cano 2ir 7ase in @onduras, 9ntil recentl&,S Manta 2ir 7ase in Ecuador #as 3er& im"ortant, too, In 0???, the 9,!, signed an agreementS #ith Ecuador for a ten-&ear-lease of facilities at Manta air"ort, %he left#ing go3ernment under S Corrales did not e/tend this lease, so it ran out in )**?, Currentl&, a ne# air base in Colombia ,S PalanBuero, ser3es as a substitute for Manta, !i/

more bases are "lanned in Colombia, 2dditionall&, so-called Lfor#ard o"erations locationsM in ElS !al3ador, Puerto Rico, Peru, Costa Rica, 2ruba and Curayao (see 4emoine )*0*N !ala=ar )*001,S 2nother im"ortant militar& asset is the reestablishment of the Fourth Fleet in )**X after IXS &ears, seated in Miami and res"onsible in "articular for the Caribbean !ea, S %he militar& "resence is com"lemented b& se3eral securit& treaties and initiati3es li5e theS Plan Colombia, the 2ndean Regional Initiati3e, the M<rida Initiati3e and the Central 2merican S !ecurit& Initiati3e (see Kur=-Muno )**IN @offmann )**X1, %hese securit& initiati3es securedS militar& inVuence through Tnancial militar& aid, Colombia recei3ed about [ I billion duringS the 0* &ears of Plan Colombia from 0??? until )**?, [ 0,+ billion #ere
(#hich is a eu"hemism for base1 e/ist authori=ed b& the 9,!,S Congress for the Trst three &ears of the M<rida Initiati3e for Me/ico, Central 2merica, @aiti and S the Cominican Re"ublic,S For decades, the legitimation of the militar& "resence in 4atin 2merica had been the Tght S against communism, 2fter the brea5do#n of communism and the end of the Cold Dar, theS Dar on Crugs has

re"laced anti-communism as the main rationale of 9,!, securit& "olic& in S the region (see Crandall
)**X1, %hree sub-regional units can be differentiated in the Dar on S CrugsJ the source-countries "roducing cocaine in the 2ndes, es"eciall& Colombia and 7oli3ia, S the transit countries in the Caribbean, Central 2merica, and Me/ico (including :ene=uela1, and S the remote countries in the !outhern Cone and 7ra=il, #hich are less affected, S %o sum u", the 9,!, is the onl& non-4atin

2merican countr& #ith a "ermanent militar& "resence in the region , %his militar& "resence gi3es the 9nited !tates the ca"abilities to inter3ene atS an& time in an& 4atin 2merican countr&, at least through air stri5es, %he most im"ortant securit&S issue is the Dar on Crugs, %he transit countries near the 9,!,-border
and the source countriesS in the 2ndes are the main targets and-or coo"eration "artners, the more southern countries are S less affected,

(&staina!le (oft )o#er

*2(2 soft po#er is on t e rise an' s&staina!le in Latin America (a!atini/ 14 (Christo"her, Editor in Chief of 2mericas guarterl& and !enior Cirector of Polic& at the 2mericas !ociet& and the Council of the 2mericas, LDI44 42%IN 2MERIC2 MI!! 9,!, @EGEM>NG6,M 'ournal of International 2ffairs, :olume ++, Issue ), !"ring )*0E, "g, 0-a:I, ProBuest, %ashma1 @ere, #e turn to the last t#o "ro3ocati3e sources of soft "o#erJ moral leadershi" and as"irational leadershi", Dhile the 9nited !tates ma& ha3e cloa5ed national interests in the rhetoric of shared "rinci"les, there ha3e been times - such as those discussed earlier - #hen its actions ha3e hel"ed to ensure "ositi3e "olitical change and the reinforcement of human rights norms and standards in the region, %he call of a common histor&, of democratic inde"endence, and of a shared commitment to go3ernment b& the "eo"le, #hile hard to Buantif&, remains "o#erful, E3en those #ho ha3e established themsel3es as o""osed to 9,!, influence and democrac&, such as Presidents Cha3e= and Morales, defined their mo3ements and go3ernments as e/"ressions of democratic "artici"ation and inclusion in the region, 2nd as the 9 nited !tates ad3ances its o#n "rocesses of democratic inclusion - in areas of race, gender, or se/ual orientation - its efforts remain an ins"iration and source of su""ort for citi=ens in these countries, 9,!, leadershi" on issues of ci3il rights, gender eBualit&, and more recentl& lesbian, ga&, bise/ual, and transgender (4G7%1 rights ha3e hel"ed to gi3e 3oice to once-discriminated grou"s and ha3e "ressured go3ernments directl& and indirectl& into addressing those concerns, !imilarl&, the as"irational as"ect of 9,!, "o#er remains strong, Dhether it is the desire to immigrate to see5 #or5 or to "ursue higher education in the 9nited !tates, the ineffable allure of the $colossus of the north$ remains im"ortant, 2nd, as "ersonal ties bet#een the 9 nited !tates and 4atin 2merica gro# - through immigration, culture, education, and integration - so too #ill the im"ortance of "eo"le8s sense of "ersonal and cultural connection to the 9 nited !tates, @o#e3er, neither
democrac& nor the "ersonal or educational ties should be goals of 9,!, foreign "olic&, %oo often, these ties ha3e obscured the real interests of the 9nited !tates that ha3e led to moments of false unit& and o"timism, #hich ha3e s5e#ed 9,!, "olic&, %he "roblem is that the 9,!, go3ernment often refers to ideas of democratic go3ernment, educational Bualit&, and inclusion as goals of foreign "olic&, %he& are not, Rather, t e "al&es an' e@amples of t e *nited (tates are tools of 'iplomacyQ toda& t

ey are &n'er"al&e' in the "ublic discussion of the 9,!, role in the region, !&t the& remain strong2

(&staina!le A+F C inese Infl&ence

*( eg isnCt t reatene' in Latin America-C ina is only p&rs&ing peacef&l "ent&res Hilton 14, a 4ondon-based #riter and broadcaster, !he #as S formerl& 4atin 2merica editor

of %he Inde"endent ne#s"a"er and S is editor of ###,chinadialogue,net, a non-"rofit Chinese-English S "latform for en3ironmental and climate change ne#s and anal&sis, S !et u" in )**+, chinadialogue "romotes Fust and eBuitable solutions S to shared "roblems through highBualit&, reliable information (Isabel,MChina in 4atin 2mericaJ @egemonic challenge6MN htt"J--###,"eacebuilding,no-3ar-e=flo#Qsite-storage-original-a""lication-)+ff0a*ccEc*b+dI +?)cXafbc*I.aad?,"df1
%he 9nited !tates is 4atin 2mericas traditional hegemonic "o#er, but Chinas influence in the S region is large and gro#ing, @o# far does Chinas "resence in the 9,!, bac5&ard re"resent a S hegemonic challenge6 China is im"ortant in the region as a bu&er of 4atin 2merican resources, S "rimaril& from four countries, an im"ortant in3estor and an e/"orter of manufactured goods, S %he im"act of Chinas acti3ities 3aries in degree from countr& to countr&, In se3eral countries S local manufacturing has suffered from chea"er Chinese im"ortsN se3eral countries ha3e benefited from Chinese demand for resources, others from large in3estments, and China is ha3ing S an im"ortant im"act on the regions infrastructure, %he ris5s to the region include resource S curse, distorted de3elo"ment and en3ironmental degradation due to a lo#ering of en3ironmental and social standards, Ces"ite its significant economic "resence,

China has been careful S to 5ee" a lo# "olitical and di"lomatic "rofile to a3oid antagonising the 9,!, and to maintain a S benign en3ironment for its economic acti3ities, Chinese su""ort, ho#e3er, has been im"ortant S for "artners, such as Cuba and :ene=uela, that do not enFo& good relations #ith the 9,!, !o far S the t#o "o#ers ha3e sought coo"eration rather than confrontation, but rising tensions #ith 9,!, S allies 'a"an and :ietnam could
ha3e re"ercussions in 4atin 2merica if China feels the 9,!, is S becoming too asserti3e in its o#n East 2sian bac5&ard, S IntroductionS E3er since President 'ames Monroes 0X)E declaration that S Euro"ean "o#ers must res"ect the #estern hemis"here as S the 9,!, s"here of influence, the

9nited !tates has been the S dominant economic, "olitical and militar& "o#er in 4atin 2merica, 2s such, it has faced a series of challengers, from S Na=i German& to the !o3iet 9nion and 'a"an,
In the last S t#o decades, the rise of the Peo"les Re"ublic of China S (PRC1 has been resha"ing the "olitics and economics of the S region, @o# far has the PRC become the ne# hegemonic S challenger6S China has not sought a strategic

confrontation #ith the 9nited !tates in 4atin 2merica, as the 9!!R did in the Cold S Dar, @o#e3er, against the
bac5ground of 9,!,WChina ri3alr& S and "otential confrontation o3er such issues as %ai#an, S this could change in the future, In the meantime, Chinas economic #eight offers its 4atin 2merican "artners a ne# S freedom to def& 9,!, interests, should the& choose to,

C ina canCt f&lly c allenge *2(2 infl&ence in t e region se"eral 'e"elopments ma.e egemonic control o"er Latin America s&staina!le )&rcell/ 11 (!usan Kaufman, director of the Center for @emis"heric Polic& at the 9ni3ersit& of Miami, LDhat @ugo ChA3e=s illness means for 9,!,, ChinaN 42%IN 2MERIC2,M %he Miami @erald, 0)-0E-00, le/is, %ashma1 China had e/"ected to continue increasing its influence in 4atin 2merica at the e/"ense of that of the 9nited !tates, ChA3e= also regarded the 9nited !tates as a declining "o#er in the Destern @emis"here and China, as a rising "o#er, @e belie3ed that 9,!, #ea5ness #ould facilitate his efforts to become the dominant force in an increasingl& anti-2merican region, Instead, ChA3e=s illness has caused his ideological allies , most of #hom belong to the ChA3e=-led 2472 grou" of countries, to begin hedging their bets b& im"ro3ing their damaged relationshi" #ith the 9nited !tates, Furthermore, the 9nited !tates has begun to "romote a %rans-Pacific Partnershi" (%PP1, #hich #ould ultimatel& lin5 the Pacific Coast countries of the Destern @emis"here #ith those of the 2sia-Pacific in order to increase Pacific 7asin trade and securit& and hel" offset Chinas influence in 2sia and 4atin 2merica, Prior to falling ill, the :ene=uelan "resident had used his oil
#ealth to hel" elect and sustain a number of leftist "residents #ho had ha""il& Foined ChA3e= in challenging 9,!, in3ol3ement in the region #hile su""orting Chinas gro#ing influence there, 7oli3ia and Ecuador, as #ell as :ene=uela itself, e/"elled their 9,!, ambassadors, Ecuador also refused to rene# the 9,!, base in Manta, and :ene=uela and 7oli3ia e/"elled 9,!, drug enforcement agents from their countries, %o 3ar&ing degrees, the& also "ursued "olicies that challenged 9,!, "ri3ate in3estments in the region, ChA3e=s announcement that he had cancer caused his allies to conclude that if ChA3e= #ere to die, the chances #ere good that the& #ould lose the economic aid the& #ere recei3ing from him, as #ell as his "rotection, since it #as unli5el& that Lcha3ismoM #ithout ChA3e= #ould sur3i3e, It is not sur"rising, therefore, that as rumors of ChA3e=s deteriorating health increased, 7oli3ia and Ecuador

decided to once again e/change ambassadors #ith the 9nited !tates, E3en if the rumors of ChA3e=s ra"idl& declining health "ro3e to be e/aggerated, it is unli5el& that the 2472 "residents #ill follo# his lead as eagerl& as the& did before his illness, 2s a result, the "otential for a more coo"erati3e relationshi" bet#een these countries and the 9nited !tates is considerabl& better than it #as before ChA3e=s illness, Dashington also restored some of its lost influence in 4atin 2merica b& finall&

a""ro3ing the free-trade agreements #ith Colombia and Panama, 2 free-trade agreement #ith !outh Korea #as also
"art of the "ac5age and constituted an im"ortant ste" in President >bamas goal of e/"anding 9,!, trade lin5s #ith the 2sia Pacific, %he !outh Korean agreement #as follo#ed shortl& thereafter b& President >bamas eight-da& tri" around the Pacific Rim aimed at sending the message that the 9nited !tates is a Pacific "o#er that #ants to e/"and its engagement #ith the countries of the region, Dashingtons interest in3ol3es both economic and securit& concerns, It #ants to e/"and 9,!, trade #ith the region, as #ell as signal to China that it has to "la& fairl& in the global econom&, Dashington also #ants to send a message of reassurance to the 2sian countries that the 9nited !tates #ill not reduce its militar& "resence in the Pacific during a "eriod #hen China is fle/ing its militar& muscles, Dashingtons ultimate goal is to Foin and hel" e/"and the inci"ient %rans-Pacific Partnershi", %o date, the %PP includes Chile, Ne# ]ealand, 7runei, !inga"ore, the 9nited !tates, 2ustralia, Mala&sia, :ietnam and Peru, Me/ico, Canada, 'a"an and Colombia ha3e e/"ressed interest in Foining, %hese recent 9,!, efforts to increase trade among countries on both sides of the Pacific 7asin "resent 4atin 2mericas Pacific coast countries #ith ne# o""ortunities to gro# their economies, "ro3ided the& ta5e the necessar& domestic ste"s to ma5e their countries more economicall& com"etiti3e, %he decision of Chile, Peru, Colombia and Me/ico to create the 2lliance of the Pacific, #hich could become the largest economic bloc in the region, is a good ste" in this direction, Finall&, both the 4atin 2merican and 9,!, efforts re"resent a #elcome attem"t b& North and !outh 2mericas Pacific coast countries to

le3el the economic "la&ing field #ith China, to the benefit of the Destern @emis"here as a #hole,

C ina #ill !ac. 'o#n if *( #ants control of Latin America Coronel 11 (Gusta3o Coronel for the Cato Institute -- :ene=uelan re"resentati3e to %rans"arenc& International from 0??+ to )***, In 0??., he founded Pro Calidad de :ida, an NG> "romoting anti-corru"tion techniBues in go3ernment and ci3ic education for children in :ene=uela, Panama, Paragua&, Me/ico and Nicaragua -- $@as :ene=uela8s Cha3e= 7ecome a Chinese Pu""et in 4atin 2merica6$ >ctober 0*th, )*00 -###,cato,org-"ublications-commentar&-has-3ene=uelas-cha3e=-become-chinese-"u""et-latinamerica1 !M
%he main threat to this Chi-Cha lin5 is re"resented b& a change in go3ernment in :ene=uela, something that seems not onl& "ossible but also "robable in the short term, For a ne#, democratic, go3ernment some of the characteristics of the China-Cha3e= relationshi" are clearl& not in the national interest and, e3en, unconstitutional, 2 ne# go3ernment could denounce this association, endangering Chinas mone& and obFecti3es in :ene=uela, 2nother obstacle could be the "osture of the 9,!, regarding the

relationshi", In case of strong 9,!, obFections China might ha3e to do#nsi=e it or abandon it altogether, since the 9,!, is clearl& more im"ortant to China than :ene=uela in a geo"olitical sense, No c ina ta.eo"er Hilton 14, a 4ondon-based #riter and broadcaster, !he #as S formerl& 4atin 2merica editor of %he Inde"endent ne#s"a"er and S is editor of ###,chinadialogue,net, a non-"rofit Chinese-English S "latform for en3ironmental and climate change ne#s and anal&sis, S !et u" in )**+, chinadialogue "romotes Fust and eBuitable solutions S to shared "roblems through highBualit&, reliable information (Isabel,MChina in 4atin 2mericaJ @egemonic challenge6MN htt"J--###,"eacebuilding,no-3ar-e=flo#Qsite-storage-original-a""lication-)+ff0a*ccEc*b+dI +?)cXafbc*I.aad?,"df1
%he 9nited !tates is 4atin 2mericas traditional hegemonic "o#er, but Chinas influence in the S region is large and gro#ing, @o# far does Chinas "resence in the 9,!, bac5&ard re"resent a S hegemonic challenge6 China is im"ortant in the region as a bu&er of 4atin 2merican resources, S "rimaril& from four countries, an im"ortant in3estor and an e/"orter of manufactured goods, S %he im"act of Chinas acti3ities 3aries in degree from countr& to countr&, In se3eral countries S local manufacturing has suffered from chea"er Chinese im"ortsN se3eral countries ha3e benefited from Chinese demand for resources, others from large in3estments, and China is ha3ing S an im"ortant im"act on the regions infrastructure, %he ris5s to the region include resource S curse, distorted de3elo"ment and en3ironmental degradation due to a lo#ering of en3ironmental and social standards, Ces"ite its significant economic "resence,

China has been careful S to 5ee" a lo# "olitical and di"lomatic "rofile to a3oid antagonising the 9,!, and to maintain a S benign en3ironment for its economic acti3ities, Chinese su""ort, ho#e3er, has been im"ortant S for "artners, such as Cuba and :ene=uela, that do not enFo& good relations #ith the 9,!, !o far S the t#o "o#ers ha3e sought coo"eration rather than confrontation, but rising tensions #ith 9,!, S allies 'a"an and :ietnam could
ha3e re"ercussions in 4atin 2merica if China feels the 9,!, is S becoming too asserti3e in its o#n East 2sian bac5&ard, S IntroductionS E3er since President 'ames Monroes 0X)E declaration that S Euro"ean "o#ers must res"ect the #estern hemis"here as S the

9,!, s"here of influence, the

9nited !tates has been the S dominant economic, "olitical and militar& "o#er in 4atin 2merica, 2s such, it has faced a series of challengers, from S Na=i German& to the !o3iet 9nion and 'a"an,
In the last S t#o decades, the rise of the Peo"les Re"ublic of China S (PRC1 has been resha"ing the "olitics and economics of the S region, @o# far has the PRC become the ne# hegemonic S challenger6S China has not sought a strategic

confrontation #ith the 9nited !tates in 4atin 2merica, as the 9!!R did in the Cold S Dar, @o#e3er, against the
bac5ground of 9,!,WChina ri3alr& S and "otential confrontation o3er such issues as %ai#an, S this could change in the future, In the meantime, Chinas economic #eight offers its 4atin 2merican "artners a ne# S freedom to def& 9,!, interests, should the& choose to,

No impact to C inese 'ra#-in Latin America;C ina is intereste' in co&nter-terrorism an' &manitarian ai' Bran' et al 1,, 2le/ander 7rand is 4ecturer and Post-Coc Researcher at the Ce"artment of

Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Main=, !usan McE#en-Fial is 4ecturer at the Ce"artment of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Main=, Dolfgang Muno is :isiting Professor of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Erfurt, 2ndrea Ribeiro @offmann is 4ecturer at the Dill& 7randt !chool of Public Polic&, 9ni3ersit& of Erfurt, (*.-)*0), L7RICs and 9,!, @egemon&J %heoretical ReVections on !hifting Po#er Patterns and Em"irical E3idence from 4atin 2mericaM,Main= Pa"ers on International and Euro"ean Politics (MPIEP1 Pa"er No, ., htt"J--international,"olitics,uni-main=,de-files-)*0)-0*-m"ie"*.,"df,FF1
Chinas militar& buildu", including its recent dis"la& of its Trst aircraft carrier, has been S subFect to great debate among 9,!, foreign "olic&ma5ers regarding Chinas obFecti3es, In theS L9,!, bac5&ardM of 4atin 2merica Chinas militar& acti3it& has

been relati3el& limited, althoughS relations ha3e e/"anded in recent &ears, Chinas Dhite Pa"er on 4atin 2merica targeted gro#thS in militar& ties as one of its obFecti3es for the region, X S China has no conTrmed "h&sical militar& "resence in 4atin 2merica, although some 2mericaS securit& s"ecialists sus"ect that the Chinese might ha3e established at least one listening "ostS in Cuba (@orta )**XN Ellis )*001, Furthermore, defense anal&sts such as E3an Ellis argue thatS China #ill refrain from ta5ing o3ertl& "ro3ocati3e militar& acti3ities such as establishing basesS in 4atin 2merica in order not to a""ear threatening to the 9nited !tates (Ellis )*00J 0*1, >n theS
other hand, it has increased its militar& e/changes of ofTcers #ith 0X 4atin 2merican countries, S including traditional 9,!, allies such as Colombia and Me/ico (ibid,J 0.1, %his more "ersonal S a""roach to the militar& relationshi" is "art of the "eo"le to "eo"le focus em"hasis on ChinasS soft "o#er announced b& @u 'intao in )**(, !enior le3el ministerial 3isits including 3isits at S the Ministr& of Cefense or Chief of !taff le3els also increased during )*0* (ibid,J 001, %heS Peo"les 4iberation 2rm& (P421 also held Foint

counter terrorism e/ercises #ith 7ra=il and aS humanitarian e/ercise #ith Peru (9!C>C )*001,S In terms of sales of militar& eBui"ment, China has been limited due to Bualit& control issues,S
Ne3ertheless, China has sold militar& #ea"ons to countries such as :ene=uela, Ecuador and 7oli3ia, including K-X and M2-+* aircraft and radar eBui"ment, It has also sold non-lethal goods S such as glo3es and #inter hats to the Colombian arm& and tents and uniforms to countries li5eS Gu&ana and 'amaica (Ellis )*00J E*1, In total, militar& sales to 4atin 2merica com"rised a""ro/imatel& ?_ of Chinas militar& #ea"ons sales in )*0*,? China has also donated eBui"ment S and sent militar& doctors and "ersonnel to the region, %hus, Chinas militar& strateg& in 4atin S 2merica follo#s its lo#-5e& attem"ts to establish

dee"er "ersonal and commercial relations asS a strategic all&, >ne area that should be mentioned is the
o3erla" bet#een militar& and commercial interests, For e/am"le, China is coo"erating #ith 7ra=il in satellite technolog&, #hich can ha3eS dual-use a""lication (Flanagan )*00J I.-II1, Furthermore, it is interesting to note the huge S "resence of telecommunication com"anies such as @ua#ei in 4atin 2merica, !us"ected to be anS arm of the Chinese defense industr& and banned from mergers in the 9,!, for national securit&S reasons, @ua#ei has been "articularl& successful in #inning contracts es"eciall& for su""l&ing S chea" eBui"ment and technolog& to rural areas in 4atin 2merica (Koles5i )*00N Kirchgaessner S )*001, %he success of com"anies such as @ua#ei reVect the inter#ea3ing of state and businessS interests that characteri=es Chinas de3elo"ment model as the China Ce3elo"ment 7an5 (CC71,S a go3ernment "olic& ban5, has e/tended loans to @ua#ei in order for the com"an& to offer 3er& S lo# credit to its customers (Koles5i )*00J0)1, S In conclusion, Chinas militar& foot"rint has been relati3el& light , although increased e/changes of "ersonnel and increased militar& sales create o""ortunit& for the Chinese militar& S and the corres"onding defense industr& to broaden their reach, It is an area in #hich relations S #ill undoubtedl& continue to e/"and in the near future, %he Chinese continue to balance theirS interests in establishing dee"er militar& relationshi"s #ith the region #ith

their interest in aS stable relationshi" #ith the 9,!,

C inese infl&ence #onCt e@pan' --- t eir economy is =&st a!o&t 'one gro#ing Fen!y/ 11 ('onathan, China director of the research ser3ice %rusted !ources, LChina can8t - and #on8t - sa3e the #orld,M %he Cail& %elegra"h, X-+-00, le/is, %ashma1 2s the Dest contem"lates a ne# bout of financial meltdo#n, the second biggest econom& on Earth might a""ear to be #ell "laced to ride abo3e the angst ri""ing through the mar5ets - or e3en

use its #ealth to come to the rescue of the richer #orld, >n the surface, China seems to ha3e man& reasons to smile, In the first half of this &ear, it registered gro#th of ?,I "er cent, #ith e/"orts ). "er cent higher than in the same "eriod of )*0*, It sits on a [E trillion mountain of foreign reser3es, and has become the lender of last resort to the 9! administration, Foreign go3ernments, mean#hile, ha3e muted criticism of its human rights recordJ as @illar& Clinton has remar5ed, $@o# do &ou tal5 tough to &our ban5er6$ %he idea of a countr& in #hich hundreds of millions are relati3el& "oor riding to the rescue of the Dest seems "arado/ical, 7ut China8s rise has fanned e/"ectations that it is read& to become a $res"onsible sta5eholder $, in the #ords of Dorld 7an5 President Robert ]oellic5, and "la& its full role in hel"ing to steer the #orld econom& to safet&, Certainl&, China8s leaders, in their immaculate business suits, ha3e made clear their disa""ro3al of Destern "rofligac&, sha5ing their lu/uriant heads of gloss& blac5 hair at the failure of the >bama administration and Euro"ean go3ernments to "ut their houses in order, 2nd the& ha3e been onl& too #illing to highlight the #a& in #hich the Peo"le8s Re"ublic restored strong gro#th after the econom& suffered a short-term di" at the end of )**X, Get the de"ressing truth is that China finds itself in a series of

binds #hich limit its abilit& - or its #illingness - to "la& the global role that should go #ith its economic #eight, %o some e/tent, this is due to the nature of the #orld around it, For instance, 7eiFing #ould li5e to reduce its dollar holdings, gi3en the greenbac58s dismal "erformance, 7ut the Chinese are far from im"ressed b& the financial management of the euro=one - and there is no other currenc&
mar5et #hich can absorb the sums in3ol3ed, %he mone& is clearl& thereJ indeed, it has been calculated that the monetar& reser3es of the Peo"le8s Re"ublic are big enough for it to bu& Ital& outright, Moreo3er, 7eiFing8s leaders ha3e made soothing noises on recent Euro"ean 3isits about bu&ing bonds from beleaguered Mediterranean nations, 7ut the amounts the& ha3e "ut on the table ha3e been small, China8s in3estments in Euro"e remain marginal com"ared #ith the sums it s"ends in

commodit&-rich 2frica, 4atin 2merica and 2ustralia, %here is also the Buestion of #hat China #ould get out of inter3ening, %he countr& surel& #ants the international financial s&stem to be reformed - but it is far from clear about #hat e/actl& China #ould li5e to see in its "lace, Instead, it contents itself #ith denouncing
the "resent set-u" as $2merican hegemon&$, It has also begun to encourage the use of its o#n currenc&, the &uan, in international trade - but the onl& result of that, so long as it continues to register a trade sur"lus and to control the 3alue of its currenc&, #ill be to increase its dollar reser3es e3en further, EBuall& im"ortantl&, China has its o#n "roblems to contend #ith, !ince the& "ulled themsel3es out of an economic hole in )**X-? #ith a z0,E trillion "rogramme of credit e/"ansion and infrastructure s"ending, the bureaucrats in 7eiFing ha3e had t#o great fears, %he first is that the effects of that "rogramme, combined #ith "ressure on food su""lies and rising #ages, #ould s"a#n ram"ant inflation, %he second #as that demand for China8s e/"orts #ould fall as the Dest #ent into a doubledi" recession, Inflation has, indeed, risen - from the ) "er cent a3erage of much of the "ast decade to more than + "ercent this summer, 2s the Communist Part& a""roaches a #holesale change in its senior leadershi" in the autumn of )*0), bringing inflation do#n to around . "er cent and sta3ing off "o"ular anger in the "rocess remains a maFor target of the go3ernment, %hat means getting a firm handle on the su""l& of mone&, #hich roared out of control in )**?, #ith ne# lending b& state ban5s of [0 trillion, 7eiFing also needs to see a decline in the cost of the

ra# materials im"orted to feed its industrial machine, 7oth goals are undermined b& the Buantitati3e easing "ursued b& the Federal Reser3e in the 9!, since the result is to boost the global mone& su""l&, some of #hich feeds into in3estments in commodities, %he snag is that the o""osite a""roach austerit& e la George >sborne - brings the threat of declining demand for China8s e/"orts, 2nd #ithout e/"orts, the Part& can8t maintain the gro#th that has been its main claim to rule since ideolog& #as "ac5ed off to the mausoleum #ith Mao %se-tung, !o China is caught bet#een a roc5 and a hard "lace, It #ants to #ard off inflation, both for economic reasons and to maintain social stabilit&, 7ut it needs e/"ort mar5ets to sta& 3ibrant at a time #hen its im"ort bill is at the merc& of commodit& "rices, %here is

also a dee"er contradiction at #or5, Dhat China8s rulers #ant, abo3e all, is to be left alone - to be able to get on #ith the Fob of creating a $moderatel& "ros"erous societ&$ b& the a""lication of $scientific socialism$ in a one-"art& state, %his means engineering a transition from an econom& that de"ends too
much on e/"orts and on in3estment in infrastructure and "ro"ert& to one #here consumers "la& a much greater role, Get China8s entanglement #ith the rest of the #orld has been crucial to its e/"ansion since Ceng aiao"ing let the mar5et genie out of the Maoist bottle in the late 0?(*s, %he #orld8s most hea3il& "o"ulated nation needs the rest of the #orld as a

source of ra# materials and a destination for its goods, 2 serious do#nturn in the Dest #ould shoot a big hole in the Communist Part&8s trium"hant stor& in the sensiti3e run-u" to the leadershi" transition in
)*0), %he idea that China alread& rules the #orld, or is ine3itabl& destined to, has its de3oteesJ a ne# global "oll found that +I "er cent of 7ritons belie3e the Peo"le8s Re"ublic is set to become the leading su"er"o#er, if it has not alread& done soN the "ro"ortion in the 9! #as .+ "er cent and in China +E "er cent, Get the truth is that, for the "ast three decades, the countr&

has had Buite an eas& ride, o3era#ing foreigners #ith the sheer s"eed and scale of its gro#th #hile being #elcomed into the global econom& because it "ro3ided chea", inflation-curbing goods, + at s&ccess story, ho#e3er, mas.e' C ina7s fail&re to craft a co erent "olitical or economic glo!al policy, be&ond a fe# basic core interests such as retaining an o"en trading s&stem, #inning access to commodities, 5ee"ing its
currenc& under3alued and rebuffing critics of its "olic& in %ibet or %ai#an, %he current crisis is li5el& to highlight the limitations of this blin5ered a""roach - and the fact that China8s leaders #ill almost certainl& "refer to #atch the mess& game disa""ro3ingl& from the stands, rather than charging on to the "itch and tr&ing to "ut things right,

(&staina!le A+F Ne# C allengers

*( eg &nc allenge' in Latin America-C ina an' Bra6il lac. t e material po#er to co&nter t e *( Bran' et al 1,, 2le/ander 7rand is 4ecturer and Post-Coc Researcher at the Ce"artment of

Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Main=, !usan McE#en-Fial is 4ecturer at the Ce"artment of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Main=, Dolfgang Muno is :isiting Professor of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Erfurt, 2ndrea Ribeiro @offmann is 4ecturer at the Dill& 7randt !chool of Public Polic&, 9ni3ersit& of Erfurt, (*.-)*0), L7RICs and 9,!, @egemon&J %heoretical ReVections on !hifting Po#er Patterns and Em"irical E3idence from 4atin 2mericaM,Main= Pa"ers on International and Euro"ean Politics (MPIEP1 Pa"er No, ., htt"J--international,"olitics,uni-main=,de-files-)*0)-0*-m"ie"*.,"df,FF1 China has e/"anded its regional resource base in economic terms and it has used institutional as #ell as soft "o#er instruments to smooth its #a& to#ards enhanced economic e/change, In terms of hegemon&, ho#e3er, it seems to lac5 most of the ingredients to act as aS regional hegemon, es"eciall& since most acti3ities are both modest in si=e and strictl& tied to either narro# economic or narro# di"lomatic goals0(N Chinese hegemonic as"irations can hardl&S be detected in the 4atin 2merican region, 7ra=il has es"eciall& fostered institutional coo"eration and "resented itself as an alternati3e to the 9,!,N it thus has signaled at least rhetoricall&S a #ill to balance 9,!, hegemon&, @o#e3er, it lac5s the material "o#er base and Buite often WS gi3en a lot of similar "olic& obFecti3es W a de facto #ill to challenge the 9,!, in 4atin 2merica asS a #hole,

(&staina!le A+F Ne# Drgani6ations

(oft po#er in Latin America as 'ecline'/ !&t it isnCt e@tinct ne# organi6ations arenCt f&nctional (a!atini/ 14 (Christo"her, Editor in Chief of 2mericas guarterl& and !enior Cirector of Polic& at the 2mericas !ociet& and the Council of the 2mericas, LDI44 42%IN 2MERIC2 MI!! 9,!, @EGEM>NG6,M 'ournal of International 2ffairs, :olume ++, Issue ), !"ring )*0E, "g, 0-a:I, ProBuest, %ashma1 Ci"lomaticall&, the region has become more contentious for the 9 nited !tates, but a greater #illingness to
challenge 9,!, "ositions on drug "olic& or Buestion the #isdom of its Cuba "olic& should not be mista5en for broad-based o""osition to the 9nited !tates, %hese are legitimate "oints of debate - as #as seen at the )*0) !>2 in Cartagena, Colombia, %he& ma& reBuire more di"lomatic foot#or5 but the& are discussions largel& among allies, 2t the same time, the emergence of the ne#

subregional grou"ings such as the 9nion of !outh 2merican Nations (9N2!9R1 and the Communit& of 4atin 2merican and Caribbean !tates (CE42C1 that "ointedl& e/clude the 9nited !tates, manifest a desire for the region to resol3e intra-regional issues - including securit& and human rights - inde"endentl& of the 9nited !tates, 7ut are the& u" to the tas56 Dhile 2472 remains a thorn in the side of the 9nited !tates, e3en before the death of Cha3e=, the 7oli3arian Re"ublic8s "etroleum fueled 3ote bu&ing had alread& started to #ea5en - es"eciall& as countries confronted their o#n internal challenges, 2nd #hile 9N2!9R and CE42C are ambitious di"lomatic initiati3es, both remain for no# Fust a ro3ing series of "residential summits, #ith no institutional or normati3e basis or infrastructure,

Impact C ina War ,AC

Fail&re to force C ina o&t of t e region 'estroys *2(2 international legitimacy --ma.es a +ai#an conflict ine"ita!le <ega/ : ('uan, ',C, candidate at the 9ni3ersit& of Minnesota 4a# !chool, M,7,2 at the 9ni3ersit& of Florida, LChina8s Economic and Political Clout Gro#s in 4atin 2merica at the E/"ense of 9,!, Interests,M 0. Minn, ', Global %rade E((, !ummer )**I, le/is, %ashma1 I, Potential 4oss of Political and 4ogistical !u""ort in the E3ent of a 9,!, Confrontation Dith China China has made militar& mo3es and arms deals that should raise #arning signs in the 9nited !tates, China has sold
missile technolog& to Iran and deli3ered militar& eBui"ment to Cuba, 0(* It also a""ears that China has set u" a "ermanent electronic sur3eillance "ost in Cuba, Fust ninet& miles from the 9nited !tates, 0(0 %hese actions ma& be considered "olitical Foc5e&ing, For e/am"le, China8s sale of militar& eBui"ment to Cuba ma& be in retaliation to the 9nited !tates selling arms to %ai#an, 0() Its electronic sur3eillance out"ost ma& be a "olitical res"onse to the 9nited !tates8s monitoring of Chinese communications from its s"& "lanes, 2 more realistic confrontation ma& occur in the e3ent of a forceful reunification #ith %ai#an, China #ill

continue using its economic "o#er to accom"lish Zb.*ER its o#n "olitical goals, For se3eral decades, the 9nited !tates has had treat& obligations to "rotect %ai#an from mainland aggression, 0(E China "refers a "eaceful resolution but sa&s it #ill use force if necessar& to bring bac5 this $renegade "ro3ince,$ 0(. If the 9nited !tates decides to stand firm, it ma& need the bac5ing of 4atin 2merican countries in order to obtain international legitimac& at the 9nited Nations, #here China is the onl& communist countr& on
the !ecurit& Council, It is also li5el& that China #ill not be seen as an aggressor and regarded instead as merel& reeling in its o#n %ai#anese citi=ens #ho could be considered outla#s for "ushing for secession, %he 9nited !tates, on the other hand, ma& be

seen as an aggressor meddling in the internal affairs of a so3ereign nation , a so3ereign nation #hose economic trade is im"erati3e to continued economic gro#th in 4atin 2merica, Dhile a lac5 of 4atin 2merican "olitical su""ort ma& hurt the 9nited !tates, the region8s logistical coo"eration #ith China ma& "ro3e fatal in the e3ent of a militar& confrontation #ith the 9nited !tates, China ma& sabotage 9,!, trade in 4atin 2merica during a militar& confrontation and ma& e3en "ressure 4atin 2merican countries to sto" trading in goods that $further$ the militar& efforts of the 9nited !tates, China has controlled the
flo# of goods bet#een the 2tlantic and the Pacific >cean since @utchinson Dham"oa 4td,, a Chinese com"an&, #as gi3en control of both the 2tlantic and Pacific "orts of the Panama Canal in 0??(, 0(I 2lthough the 9nited !tates has the right to "rotect the canal "ursuant to the treat& it signed #ith Panama, Panamanian legislators ma& create la#s eliminating such rights, It is concei3able that Panamanian legislators ma& reBuest that the Chinese militar& mo3e into 9,!, built bases in order to $"rotect$ the canalN after all, the Chinese ha3e filled the 3oid left in Cuba #hen the former !o3iet 9nion "ulled out, Zb.*.R 2s China8s need for oil and as its

obsession #ith reining in %ai#an gro#s, China8s control o3er the Panama Canal becomes more im"ortant, %he Chinese militar& recentl& "ublished a boo5 entitled $4iberating %ai#an,$ detailing a "lan to use Chinese #arshi"s
to im"ose oil embargoes on %ai#an, 'a"an, and on the 9nited !tates, 0(+ In the e3ent of such a confrontation the loss of oil from 4atin 2merican countries ma& "ro3e lethal to the 9nited !tates, It is #it t is sense of &rgency t at t e

*nited (tates s o&l' co&nter C ina7s gro#ing infl&ence b& offering fa3orable bilateral trade agreements
and reconsidering the #isdom of its agricultural subsidies,

Glo!al n&clear #ar H&n.o"ic 0 W 2merican Militar& 9ni3ersit& (4ee ',, L%he Chinese-%ai#anese ConflictJ Possible Futures of a Confrontation bet#een China, %ai#an and the 9nited !tates of 2merica,M htt"J--###,lam"-method,org-eCommons-@un5o3ic,"df1 2 #ar bet#een China, %ai#an and the 9nited !tates has the "otential to escalate into a nuclear conflict and a t ir' #orl' #ar, therefore, man& countries other than the "rimar& actors could be affected b& such a conflict, including 'a"an, both Koreas, Russia, 2ustralia, India and Great 7ritain , if the& #ere dra#n into the #ar, as #ell as all ot er co&ntries in the #orld that "artici"ate in the global econom&, in #hich
the 9nited !tates and China are the t#o most dominant members,

Impact Democracy ,AC

C inese ta.eo"er lea's to a transition a#ay from 'emocracy in Latin America <ega/ : ('uan, ',C, candidate at the 9ni3ersit& of Minnesota 4a# !chool, M,7,2 at the 9ni3ersit& of Florida, LChina8s Economic and Political Clout Gro#s in 4atin 2merica at the E/"ense of 9,!, Interests,M 0. Minn, ', Global %rade E((, !ummer )**I, le/is, %ashma1 E, Promotion of Cemocrac& in 4atin 2merica >ne maFor 9,!, interest is the "romotion of democrac& throughout 4atin 2merica, China is a communist countr& that considers democrac& an im"ediment to "rogress, !ome regional and economic e/"erts belie3e that China #ill e3ol3e from an authoritarian regime to a successful democratic societ&, as did !outh Korea and 'a"an, 00I @o#e3er, the Communist Part& is tightening its gri" on Chinese societ& and it is doubtful that China #ill trul& #elcome democratic "olicies, 00+
China had a chance to sho# the #orld that it #ould mo3e to#ards democrac& ZbE?.R #hen it too5 control of @ong Kong in 0???, but instead it chose to curtail democrac& b& "rohibiting elections for certain go3ernment "ositions in @ong Kong, 00( Man& 4atin

2mericans do not #ant to let the free forces of the mar5et dictate, nor ha3e the& seen the benefits of democrac&, 00X Man& of them are #illing to ta5e their chances #ith an authoritarian go3ernment, 00? 4atin 2merican "residents are freBuentl& forced to resign and are re"laced b& leftist grou"s that o""ose globali=ation, 0)* Get, 9,!, administrations ha3e not gi3en enough attention to this disturbing and gro#ing sentiment, 0)0 Democracy is .ey to sol"e for e@tinction %&ra"c i. 1 W Resident !cholar at 2merican Enter"rise Institute 'oshua, LCemocrac& and nuclear "eace,M 'ul 00, htt"J--###,n"ec-#eb,org-s&llabi-mura3chi5,htm %he greatest im"etus for #orld "eace -- and "erforce of nuclear "eace -- is the s"read of democrac&, In a famous article, and subseBuent boo5, Francis Fu5u&ama argued that democrac&8s e/tension #as leading to $the
end of histor&,$ 7& this he meant the conclusion of man8s Buest for the right social order, but he also meant the $diminution of the li5elihood of large-scale conflict bet#een states,$ (01 Fu5u&ama8s "hrase #as intentionall& "ro3ocati3e, e3en tongue-in-chee5, but he #as "ointing to t#o do#n-to-earth historical obser3ationsJ that democracies are more "eaceful than other 5inds of go3ernment and that the #orld is gro#ing more democratic, Neither "oint has gone unchallenged, >nl& a fe# decades ago, as distinguished an obser3er of international relations as George Kennan made a claim Buite contrar& to the first of these assertions, Cemocracies,

he said, #ere slo# to anger, but once aroused $a democrac& , , , , fights in anger , , , , to the bitter end,$ ()1 Kennan8s 3ie# #as strongl& influenced b& the "olic& of $unconditional surrender$ "ursued in Dorld Dar II, 7ut subseBuent e/"erience, such as the negotiated settlements 2merica sought in Korea and :ietnam "ro3ed him #rong, Cemocracies are not onl& slo# to anger but also Buic5 to com"romise, 2nd to forgi3e, Not#ithstanding the insistence on unconditional surrender,
2merica treated 'a"an and that "art of German& that it occu"ied #ith e/traordinar& generosit&, In recent &ears a burgeoning literature has discussed the "eacefulness of democracies, Indeed the "ro"osition that democracies do not go to

#ar #ith one another has been described b& one "olitical scientist as being $as close as an&thing #e ha3e to an em"irical la# in international relations,$ (E1 !ome of those #ho find enthusiasm for democrac&
off-"utting ha3e challenged this "ro"osition, but their challenges ha3e onl& ser3ed as em"irical tests that ha3e confirmed its robustness, For e/am"le, the academic Paul Gottfried and the columnist-turned-"olitician Patric5 ', 7uchanan ha3e both instanced democratic England8s declaration of #ar against democratic Finland during Dorld Dar II, (.1 In fact, after much "rocrastination, England did accede to the "ressure of its !o3iet all& to declare #ar against Finland #hich #as allied #ith German&, 7ut the declaration #as "urel& formalJ no fighting ensued bet#een England and Finland, !urel& this is an e/ce"tion that "ro3es the rule, %he strongest e/ce"tion I can thin5 of is the #ar bet#een the nascent state of Israel and the 2rabs in 0?.X, Israel #as an embr&onic democrac& and 4ebanon, one of the 2rab belligerents, #as also democratic #ithin the confines of its "eculiar confessional di3ision of "o#er, 4ebanon, ho#e3er, #as a reluctant "art& to the fight, Dithin the councils of the 2rab 4eague, it o""osed the #ar but #ent along #ith its larger confreres #hen the& o"ted to attac5, E3en so, 4ebanon did little fighting and soon sued for "eace, %hus, in the case of 4ebanon against Israel, as in the case of England against Finland, democracies nominall& #ent to #ar against democracies #hen the& #ere dragged into conflicts b& authoritarian allies, %he "olitical scientist 7ruce Russett offers a different challenge to the notion that democracies are more "eaceful, $%hat democracies are in general, in dealing #ith all 5inds of

states, more "eaceful than are authoritarian or other nondemocraticall& constituted states , , , ,is a
much more contro3ersial "ro"osition than 8merel&8 that democracies are "eaceful in their dealings #ith each other, and one for #hich there is little s&stematic e3idence,$ he sa&s, (I1 Russett cites his o#n and other statistical e/"lorations #hich sho# that #hile democracies rarel& fight one another the& often fight against others, %he trouble #ith such studies, ho#e3er, is that the& rarel& e/amine the Buestion of #ho started or caused a #ar, %o reduce the data to a form that is Buantitati3el& measurable, it is easier to determine #hether a conflict has occurred bet#een t#o states than #hose fault it #as, 7ut the latter Buestion is all im"ortant,

Cemocracies ma& often go to #ar against dictatorshi"s because the dictators see them as "re& or underestimate their resol3e, Indeed, such e/am"les abound, German& might ha3e beha3ed more cautiousl& in the
summer of 0?0. had it reali=ed that England #ould fight to 3indicate 7elgian neutralit& and to su""ort France, 4ater, @itler #as emboldened b& his notorious contem"t for the flabbiness of the democracies, North Korea almost surel& discounted the li5elihood of an 2merican militar& res"onse to its in3asion of the !outh after !ecretar& of !tate Cean 2cheson "ublicl& defined 2merica8s defense "erimeter to e/clude the Korean "eninsula (a declaration #hich merel& confirmed e/isting 9,!, "olic&1, In 0??*, !addam @ussein8s decision to s#allo# Ku#ait #as "robabl& encouraged b& the inference he must ha3e ta5en from the statements and actions of 2merican officials that Dashington #ould offer no forceful resistance, Russett sa&s that those #ho claim democracies are in general more "eaceful $#ould ha3e us belie3e that the 9nited !tates #as regularl& on the defensi3e, rarel& on the offensi3e, during the Cold Dar,$ 7ut that is not Buite rightJ the #ord $regularl&$ distorts the issue, 2 3ictim can sometimes turn the tables on an aggressor, but that does not ma5e the 3ictim eBuall& bellicose, None #ould dis"ute that Na"oleon #as res"onsible for the Na"oleonic #ars or @itler for Dorld Dar II in Euro"e, but after a time their 3ictims sei=ed the offensi3e, !o in the Cold Dar, the 9nited !tates ma& ha3e initiated some s5irmishes (although in fact it rarel& did1, but the struggle as a #hole #as dri3en one-sidedl&, %he !o3iet "olic& #as $class #arfare$N the 2merican "olic& #as $containment,$ %he so-called re3isionist historians argued that 2merica bore an eBual or larger share of res"onsibilit& for the conflict, 7ut Mi5hail Gorbache3 made nonsense of their theories #hen, in the name of glasnost and "erestroi5a, he turned the !o3iet 9nion a#a& from its historic course, %he Cold Dar ended almost instantl&--as he no doubt 5ne# it #ould, $De #ould ha3e been able to a3oid man& , , , difficulties if the democratic "rocess had de3elo"ed normall& in our countr&,$ he #rote, ((1 %o render Fudgment about the relati3e "eacefulness of states or s&stems, #e must as5 not onl& #ho started a #ar but #h&, In "articular #e should consider #hat in Catholic 'ust Dar doctrine is called $right intention,$ #hich means roughl&J #hat did the& ho"e to get out of it6 In the fe# cases in recent times in #hich #ars #ere initiated b& democracies, there #ere often moti3es other than aggrandi=ement, for e/am"le, #hen 2merica in3aded Grenada, %o be sure, Dashington #as im"elled b& selfinterest more than altruism, "rimaril& its concern for the #ell-being of 2merican nationals and its desire to remo3e a chi", ho#e3er tin&, from the !o3iet game board, 7ut 2merica had no designs u"on Grenada, and the in3aders #ere greeted #ith Fo& b& the Grenadan citi=enr&, 2fter organi=ing an election, 2merica "ulled out, In other cases, democracies ha3e turned to

#ar in the face of "ro3ocation, such as Israel8s in3asion of 4ebanon in 0?X) to root out an enem& s#orn to its destruction
or %ur5e&8s in3asion of C&"rus to rebuff a "o#er-grab b& Gree5 nationalists, In contrast, the #ars launched b& dictators, such as IraB8s in3asion of Ku#ait, North Korea8s of !outh Korea, the !o3iet 9nion8s of @ungar& and 2fghanistan, often ha3e aimed at conBuest or subFugation, %he big e/ce"tion to this rule is colonialism, %he Euro"ean "o#ers conBuered most of 2frica and 2sia, and continued to hold their "ri=es as Euro"e democrati=ed, No doubt man& of the instances of democracies at #ar that enter into the statistical calculations of researchers li5e Russett stem from the colonial era, 7ut colonialism #as a legac& of Euro"e8s "redemocratic times, and it #as abandoned after Dorld Dar II, !ince then, I 5no# of no case #here a democrac& has initiated #arfare #ithout significant "ro3ocation or for reasons of sheer aggrandi=ement, but there are se3eral cases #here dictators ha3e done so, >ne interesting "iece of Russett8s research should hel" to "oint him a#a& from his doubts that democracies are more "eaceful in general, @e aimed to e/"lain #h& democracies are more "eaceful to#ard each other, Immanuel Kant #as the first to obser3e, or rather to forecast, the "acific inclination of democracies, @e reasoned that $citi=ens , , , #ill ha3e a great hesitation in , , , , calling do#n on themsel3es all the miseries of #ar,$ (X1 7ut this 3alid insight is incom"lete, %here is a dee"er e/"lanation, Cemocrac&

is not Fust a mechanismN it entails a s"irit of com"romise and self-restraint, 2t bottom, democrac& is the #illingness to resol3e ci3il dis"utes #ithout recourse to 3iolence, Nations that embrace this ethos in the conduct of their domestic affairs are naturall& more "redis"osed to embrace it in their dealings #ith other nations, Russett aimed to e/"lain #h& democracies are more "eaceful
to#ard one another, %o do this, he constructed t#o models, >ne h&"othesi=ed that the cause la& in the mechanics of democratic decision-ma5ing (the $structural-institutional model$1, the other that it la& in the democratic ethos (the $cultural-normati3e model$1, @is statistical assessments led him to conclude thatJ $almost al#a&s the cultural-normati3e

model sho#s a consistent effect on conflict occurrence and #ar, %he structural-institutional model sometimes "ro3ides a significant relationshi" but often does not, $ (?1 If it is the ethos that ma5es
democratic states more "eaceful to#ard each other, #ould not that ethos also ma5e them more "eaceful in general6 Russett im"lies that the ans#er is no, because to his mind a critical element in the "eaceful beha3ior of democracies to#ard other democracies is their antici"ation of a conciliator& attitude b& their counter"art, 7ut this is too "at, %he attitude of li3e-and-let-li3e cannot be turned on and off li5e a s"igot, %he citi=ens and officials of democracies recogni=e that other states, ho#e3er go3erned, ha3e legitimate interests, and the& are dis"osed to tr& to accommodate those interests e/ce"t #hen the other "art&8s beha3ior seems threatening or outrageous, 2 different 5ind of challenge to the thesis that democracies are more "eaceful has been "osed b& the "olitical scientists Ed#ard G, Mansfield and 'ac5 !n&der, %he& claim statistical su""ort for the "ro"osition that #hile full& fledged democracies ma& be "acific, 2in thZeR transitional "hase of democrati=ation, countries become more aggressi3e and #ar-"rone, not less,$ (0*1 @o#e3er, li5e others, the& measure a state8s li5elihood of becoming in3ol3ed in a #ar but do not re"ort attem"ting to determine the cause or fault, Moreo3er, the& ac5no#ledge that their research re3ealed not onl& an increased li5elihood for a state to become in3ol3ed in a #ar #hen it #as gro#ing more democratic, but an almost eBual increase for states gro#ing less democratic, %his raises the "ossibilit& that the effects the& #ere obser3ing #ere caused sim"l& b& "olitical change "er se, rather than b& democrati=ation, Finall&, the& im"licitl& ac5no#ledge that the relationshi" of democrati=ation and "eacefulness ma& change o3er historical "eriods, %here is no reason to su""ose that an& such relationshi" is go3erned b& an immutable la#, !ince their em"irical base reaches bac5 to 0X00, an& effect the& re"ort, e3en if accuratel& inter"reted, ma& not hold in the contem"orar& #orld, %he& note that $in ZsomeR recent cases, in contrast to some of our historical results, the rule seems to beJ go full& democratic, or don8t go at all,$ 7ut according to Freedom @ouse, some +),I "ercent of e/tant go3ernments #ere chosen in legitimate elections, (0)1 (%his is a much larger "ro"ortion than are adFudged b& Freedom @ouse to be $free states,$ a more demanding criterion, and it includes man& #ea5l& democratic states,1 >f the remaining E(,I "ercent, a large number are e/"eriencing some degree of democrati=ation or hea3& "ressure in that direction, !o the choice $don8t go at all$ (001 is rarel& realistic in the contem"orar& #orld, %hese statistics also contain the ans#er to those #ho doubt the second "ro"osition behind Fu5u&ama8s forecast, namel&, that the #orld is gro#ing more

democratic, !5e"tics ha3e dra#n u"on !amuel @untington8s fine boo5, %he %hird Da3eJ Cemocrati=ation in the 4ate %#entieth Centur&, @untington sa&s that the democrati=ation trend that began in the mid-0?(*s in Portugal, Greece and !"ain is the third such e"isode, %he first $#a3e$ of democrati=ation began #ith the 2merican re3olution and lasted through the aftermath of Dorld Dar I, coming to an end in the inter#ar &ears #hen much of Euro"e regressed bac5 to fascist or militar& dictatorshi", %he second #a3e, in this telling, follo#ed Dorld Dar II #hen #holesale decoloni=ation ga3e rise to a raft of ne# democracies, Most of these, notabl& in 2frica, colla"sed into dictatorshi" b& the 0?+*s, bringing the second #a3e to its end, %hose #ho follo# @untington8s argument ma& ta5e the failure of democrac& in se3eral of the former !o3iet re"ublics and some other instances of bac5sliding since 0?X? to signal the end of the third #a3e, !uch an im"ression, ho#e3er, #ould be misleading, >ne unsatisf&ing thing about @untington8s $#a3es$ is their une3enness, %he first lasted about 0I* &ears, the second about )*, @o# long should #e e/"ect the third to endure6 If it is li5e the second, it #ill ebb an& da& no#, but if it is li5e the first, it #ill run until the around the &ear )0)I, 2nd b& then--#ho 5no#s6-"erha"s man5ind #ill ha3e incinerated itself, mo3ed to another "lanet, or e3en de3ised a better "olitical s&stem, Further, @untington8s meta"hor im"lies a lac5 of o3erall "rogress or direction, Da3es rise and fall, 7ut each of the re3erses that follo#ed @untington8s t#o #a3es #as brief, and each ne# #a3e raised the number of democracies higher than before, @untington does, ho#e3er, "resent a statistic that seems to #eigh hea3il& against an& unidirectional inter"retation of democratic "rogress, %he "ro"ortion of states that #ere democratic in 0??* (.I_1, he sa&s, #as identical to the "ro"ortion in 0?)), (0E1 7ut there are t#o ans#ers to this, In 0?)) there #ere onl& +. statesN in 0??* there #ere 0+I, 7ut the number of "eo"les had not gro#n a""reciabl&, %he difference #as that in 0?)) most "eo"les li3ed in colonies, and the& #ere not counted as states, %he +. states of that time #ere mostl& the ad3anced countries, >f those, t#o thirds had become democratic b& 0??*, #hich #as a significant gain, %he additional 0*0 states counted in 0??* #ere mostl& former colonies, >nl& a minorit&, albeit a substantial one, #ere democratic in 0??*, but since 3irtuall& none of those #ere democratic in 0?)), that #as also a significant gain, In short, there #as "rogress all around, but this #as obscured b& as5ing #hat "ercentage of states #ere democratic, 2s5ing the Buestion this #a& means that a "eo"le #ho #ere subFected to a domestic dictator counted as a non-democrac&, but a "eo"le #ho #ere subFected to a foreign dictator did not count at all, Moreo3er, #hile the criteria for Fudging a state democratic 3ar&, the statistic that .I "ercent of states #ere democratic in 0??* corres"onds #ith Freedom @ouse8s count of $democratic$ "olities (as o""osed to its smaller count of $free$ countries, a more demanding criterion1, 7ut b& this same count, Freedom @ouse no# sa&s that the "ro"ortion of democracies has gro#n to +),I "ercent, In other #ords, the $third #a3e$ has not abated, %hat Freedom @ouse could count 0)* freel& elected go3ernments b& earl& )**0 (out of a total of 0?) inde"endent states1 bes"ea5s a 3ast transformation in human go3ernance #ithin the s"an of ))I &ears, In 0((I, the number of democracies #as =ero, In 0((+, the birth of the 9nited !tates of 2merica brought the total u" to one, !ince then, democrac& has s"read at an accelerating "ace, most of the gro#th ha3ing occurred #ithin the t#entieth centur&, #ith greatest momentum since 0?(., %hat this momentum has slac5ened some#hat since its "innacle in 0?X?, destined to be remembered as one of the most re3olutionar& &ears in all histor&, #as ine3itable, !o man& "eo"les #ere s#e"t u" in the democratic tide that there #as certain to be some bac5sliding, Most countries8 democratic e3olution has included some fits and starts rather than a smooth "rogression, !o it must be for the #orld as a #hole, Nonetheless, the o3erall trend remains "o#erful and clear, Ces"ite the bac5sliding, the number and "ro"ortion of democracies stands higher toda& than e3er before, %his "rogress offers a source of ho"e for enduring nuclear "eace, %he danger of nuclear #ar #as radicall& reduced almost o3ernight #hen Russia abandoned Communism and turned to democrac&, For other ominous corners of the #orld, #e ma& be in a 5ind of race bet#een the emergence or gro#th of nuclear arsenals and the ad3ent of democrati=ation, If this is so, the greatest cause for #orr& ma& rest #ith the Moslem Middle East #here nuclear arsenals do not &et e/ist but #here the "ros"ects for democrac& ma& be still more remote,

Impact En"ironment ,AC

C inese egemonic control o"er t e region 'egra'es t e en"ironment --- t eyCll ta.e o"er Latin American economies an' ignore en"ironmental stan'ar's <ega/ : ('uan, ',C, candidate at the 9ni3ersit& of Minnesota 4a# !chool, M,7,2 at the 9ni3ersit& of Florida, LChina8s Economic and Political Clout Gro#s in 4atin 2merica at the E/"ense of 9,!, Interests,M 0. Minn, ', Global %rade E((, !ummer )**I, le/is, %ashma1 ., En3ironmental !tandards, Mar5et !hare, and an Economic 2lternati3e Dhile the 9nited !tates has "ro3isions for en3ironmental standards in its trade agreements, it is 'o&!tf&l t at C ina #ill let en"ironmental concerns slo# its economic progress in Latin America2 0)) China has e/"erienced economic gro#th at the e/"ense of its en3ironment, containing nine of the #orld8s ten most "olluted cities, 0)E Chronic res"irator& disease has become the ZbE?IR leading cause of death in the countr&, 0).
Chinese manufacturers ha3e been gaining mar5et share in industries #here Me/ico lost mar5et share, 0)I 7& mid-)**E, China sur"assed Me/ico as the second-largest su""lier of goods to the 9nited !tates, 0)+ China has erased man& of Me/ico8s economic ad3antages that the 9nited !tates and Me/ico had #or5ed hard for &ears to obtain under N2F%2, 0)( China ma& be able to de3elo" greater clout relati3e to the 9nited !tates #ith small countries that de"end on the te/tile industr&, 2s China im"orts great

Buantities of ra# materials and e/"orts labor-intensi3e manufactured goods, it dri3es do#n the "rice of its e/"orts and it increases the "rice of ra# materials that it im"orts, 0)X Poor countries that de"end on the te/tile industr& #ill earn lo#er "rices for their e/"orts and #ill ha3e to "a& higher "rices for their ra# materials, 0)? China has an im"ortant bargaining chi" #ith these countries that the 9nited !tates does not, En"ironmental 'estr&ction ca&ses e@tinction Warner/ 0E (Paul Warner, 2merican 9ni3ersit&, Ce"t of International Politics and Foreign Polic&, 2ugust, Politics and 4ife !ciences, 0?0E, " 0((1
Massi3e e/tinction of s"ecies is dangerous, then, because one cannot "redict #hich s"ecies are e/"endable to the s&stem as a #hole, 2s Phili" @oose remar5s, $Plants and animals cannot tell us #hat the& mean to each other,$ Dne can ne"er !e

s&re # ic species ol's &p f&n'amental !iological relations ips in t e planetary ecosystem2 An'/ !eca&se remo"ing species is an irre"ersi!le act/ it may !e too late to sa"e t e system after the e/tinction of 5e& "lants or animals, 2ccording to the 9,!,
National Research Council, $%he ramifications of an ecological change of this magnitude Z3ast e/tinction of s"eciesR are so far reaching that no one on earth #ill esca"e them,$ +rifling #it t e Hli"esH of species is li.e playing

9&ssian ro&lette/ #it o&r collecti"e f&t&re as t e sta.es2

Impact Glo!al Hegemony ,AC

Dominance in Latin America is .ey to s&staining eg in t e rest of t e #orl' (anc e6 an' ( olar 1,, Peter !anche=(PhC1 is a Professor P Graduate Program Cirector
(GPC1 ` 4o&ola 9ni3ersit& in Chicago, Megan !holar is a PhC ` 4o&ola 9ni3ersit& in Chicago, (LPo#er and Princi"leJ 2 Ne# 9! Polic& for 4atin 2mericaMN International 'ournal of @umanities and !ocial !cience :ol, ) No, )EN Cecember )*0)N htt"J--###,iFhssnet,com-Fournals-:olQ)QNoQ)EQCecemberQ)*0)-E,"df, FF1

Mo3ing be&ond criticism, #e then "ro"ose se3eral concrete changes to 9! "olic& that #ould enhance 2mericas S ethical stance to#ard 4atin 2merica, thereb& enhancing 9! hegemon&, In essence #e "ro3ide a "rescri"tion that S sho#s ho# a Great Po#ers "olicies should change once it becomes a hegemonic "o#er, %hese modest "olic& S recommendations, if enacted, #ould "reser3e 9! interests b& im"ro3ing 2mericas image, an also result in S enhanced securit&, democrac&, and "ros"erit& in the #estern hemis"here, %a5ing these ste"s is im"ortant for the S 9nited !tates because 4atin 2merica remains a "ital

region for *( strategic, geo"olitical, and economic interests S (@siang, )**E, I?-+*1, If Dashington cannot secure its 5e& interests and be "ercei3ed "ositi3el& in the Destern S @emis"here, then attaining goals in the rest of the #orld #ill be a "i"e dream, *( primacy pre"ents glo!al conflict 'iminis ing po#er creates a "ac&&m t at ca&ses transition #ars in m&ltiple places Broo.s et al 14 Z!te"hen G, 7roo5s is 2ssociate Professor of Go3ernment at Cartmouth College,G, 'ohn I5enberr& is the 2lbert G, Milban5 Professor of Politics and International 2ffairs at Princeton 9ni3ersit& in the Ce"artment of Politics and the Doodro# Dilson !chool of Public and International 2ffairs, @e is also a Global Eminence !cholar at K&ung @ee 9ni3ersit&,Dilliam C, Dohlforth is the Caniel Debster Professor in the Ce"artment of Go3ernment at Cartmouth College, LCon8t Come @ome, 2mericaJ %he Case against RetrenchmentM, Dinter )*0E, :ol, E(, No, E, Pages (I0,htt"J--###,mit"ressFournals,org-doi-abs-0*,00+)-I!ECQaQ**0*(, GCI FileR 2 core "remise of dee" engagement is that it "re3ents the emergence of a far more dangerous global securit& en3ironment, For one thing, as noted abo3e, the 9nited !tates o3erseas "resence gi3es it the le3erage to restrain "artners from ta5ing "ro3ocati3e action, Perha"s more im"ortant, its core alliance commitments also deter states #ith

as"irations to regional hegemon& from contem"lating e/"ansion and ma5e its "artners more secure, reducing their incenti3e to ado"t solutions to their securit& "roblems that threaten others and thus sto5e securit& dilemmas, %he contention that engaged 9,!, "o#er dam"ens the baleful effects of anarch& is consistent #ith influential 3ariants of realist theor&, Indeed, arguabl& the scariest "ortra&al of the #ar-"rone #orld that #ould emerge absent the L2merican PacifierM is "ro3ided in the #or5s of 'ohn Mearsheimer, #ho forecasts dangerous multi"olar regions re"lete #ith securit& com"etition, arms races, nuclear "roliferation and associated "re3enti3e #artem"tations, regional ri3alries, and e3en runs at regional hegemon& and full-scale great "o#er #ar, () @o# do retrenchment ad3ocates, the bul5 of #hom are realists, discount this benefit6 %heir arguments are com"licated, but t#o ca"ture most of the 3ariationJ (01 9,!, securit& guarantees are not necessar& to "re3ent dangerous ri3alries and conflict in EurasiaN or ()1 "re3ention of ri3alr& and conflict in Eurasia is not a 9,!, interest, Each res"onse is connected to a different theor& or set of theories, #hich ma5es sense gi3en that the #hole debate hinges on a com"le/ future counterfactual (#hat #ould ha""en to Eurasias securit& setting if the 9nited !tates trul& disengaged61, 2lthough a certain ans#er is im"ossible, each of these res"onses is nonetheless a #ea5er argument for retrenchment than ad3ocates ac5no#ledge, %he first res"onse flo#s from defensi3e realism as #ell as other international relations theories that discount the conflict-generating "otential of anarch& under contem"orar& conditions, (E Cefensi3e realists maintain that the high e/"ected costs of territorial conBuest, defense dominance, and an arra& of "olicies and "ractices that can be used credibl& to signal benign intent, mean that Eurasias maFor states could manage regional multi"olarit& "eacefull& #ithout the2merican "acifier, Retrenchment #ould be a bet on this scholarshi", "articularl& in regions #here the 5inds of stabili=ers that nonrealist theories "oint toHsuch as democratic go3ernance or dense institutional lin5agesHare either absent or #ea5l& "resent, %here are three other maFor bodies of scholarshi", ho#e3er, that might gi3e decisionma5ers "ause before ma5ing this bet, First is regional e/"ertise, Needless to sa&, there is no consensus on the net securit& effects of 9,!, #ithdra#al, Regarding each region, there are o"timists and "essimists, Fe# e/"erts e/"ect a return of intense great "o#er com"etition in a "ost-2merican Euro"e, but man& doubt Euro"ean go3ernments #ill "a& the "olitical costs of increased E9 defense coo"eration and the budgetar& costs of increasing militar& outla&s, (. %he result might be

Euro"e that is inca"able of securing itself from 3arious threats that could be destabili=ing #ithin the region and be&ond (e,g,, a regional conflict a5in to the 0??*s 7al5an #ars1, lac5s ca"acit& for global securit& missions in #hich 9,!, leaders might #ant Euro"ean "artici"ation, and is 3ulnerable to the influence of outside rising "o#ers, Dhat about the other "arts of Eurasia #here the 9nited !tates has a substantial militar& "resence6 Regarding the Middle East, the balance begins tos#ing to#ard "essimists concerned that states currentl& bac5ed b& Dashington H notabl& Israel, Eg&"t, and !audi 2rabiaHmight ta5e actions u"on 9,!, retrenchment that #ould intensif& securit& dilemmas, 2nd concerning East 2sia, "essimismregarding the regions "ros"ects #ithout the 2merican "acifier is "ronounced, 2rguabl& the "rinci"al concern e/"ressed b& area e/"erts is that 'a"an and !outh Korea are li5el& to o!tain a n&clear capacity and increase their militar& commitments, #hich could sto5e a 'esta!ili6ing reaction from C ina , It is notable that during the Cold Dar, both !outh Korea and %ai#an mo3ed to
a

obtain a nuclear #ea"ons ca"acit& and #ere onl& constrained from doing so b& astill-engaged 9nited !tates, (I %he second bod& of scholarshi" casting doubt on the bet on defensi3e realisms sanguine "ortra&al is all of the research that undermines its conce"tion of state "references, Cefensi3e realisms o"timism about #hat #ould ha""en if the 9nited !tates retrenched is 3er& much de"endent on its"articularHand highl& restricti3eHassum"tion about state "referencesN once #e rela/ this assum"tion, then much of its basis for o"timism 3anishes, !"ecificall&, the "rediction of "ost-2merican tranBuilit& throughout Eurasia rests on the assum"tion that securit& is the onl& rele3ant state "reference, #ith securit& defined narro#l& in terms of "rotection from 3iolent e/ternal attac5s on the homeland, 9nder that assum"tion, the securit& "roblem is largel& sol3ed as

research across the social and other sciences, ho#e3er,undermines that core assum"tionJ states ha3e "references not onl& for securit& but also for "restige, status , and other aims, and the&engage in trade-offs among the 3arious obFecti3es, (+ In addition, the& define securit& not Fust in terms of territorial "rotection but in 3ie# of man& and 3aried milieu goals , It follo#s that e3en states that are relati3el& secure ma& ne3ertheless engage in highl& com"etiti3e beha3ior, Em"irical studies sho# that this is indeed sometimes the case, (( In sum, a bet on a benign "ostretrenchment Eurasia is a bet that leaders of maFor countries #ill ne3er allo# these nonsecurit& "references to influence their strategic choices, %o the degree that these bodies of scholarl& 5no#ledge ha3e "redicti3e le3erage, 9,!, retrenchment #ould result in a significant deterioration in the securit& en3ironment in at least some of the #orlds 5e& regions, De ha3e alread& mentioned the third, e3en more alarming bod& of scholarshi", >ffensi3e realism "redicts that the #ithdra#al of the 2merican "acifier #ill &ield either a com"etiti3e regional multi"olarit& com"lete #ith associated insecurit&, arms racing, crisis instabilit&, nuclear "roliferation , and the li5e, or bids for regional hegemon&, #hich ma& be be&ond the ca"acit& of local great "o#ers to contain (and #hich in an& case #ould generate intensel& com"etiti3e beha3ior, "ossibl& including regional great "o#er #ar1,
soon as offense and defense are clearl& distinguishable, and offense is e/tremel& e/"ensi3e relati3e to defense, 7urgeoning

C ina is o"erta.ing *2(2 infl&ence in Latin America --- 'estroys glo!al egemony <ega/ : ('uan, ',C, candidate at the 9ni3ersit& of Minnesota 4a# !chool, M,7,2 at the 9ni3ersit& of Florida, LChina8s Economic and Political Clout Gro#s in 4atin 2merica at the E/"ense of 9,!, Interests,M 0. Minn, ', Global %rade E((, !ummer )**I, le/is, %ashma1
For man& &ears during the Cold Dar, the %hird Dorld #as a battleground for t#o su"er"o#ers6the 9nited !tates and the former !o3iet 9nion, %hese t#o nations fought to e/ert their influence throughout 4atin 2merica in order to gain "olitical, economic, and militar& clout, Dhen the !o3iet 9nion fell, the 9nited !tates lost interest in its relationshi" #ith 4atin 2merican countries, Curing the "ast fi3e &ears, China has ste""ed into the 3oid left b& these t#o retreating su"er"o#ers, 0 2s China increases and

solidifies economic ties to the region and secures oil, minerals, and other commodities from this region, it gains economic and "olitical influence at the e/"ense of 9,!, interests, If Chinese economic "o#er sur"asses that of the 9nited !tates, 4atin 2merican countries ma& no longer feel the need to coo"erate #ith 9,!, initiati3es in trade, human rights, antinarcotics, en3ironmental safeguards, an' *2(2 national sec&rity2 In ZbE(XR C ina/ Latin America is li.ely to fin' an attracti"e alternati"e to economic tra'e t at is not contingent &pon *2(2 interests2
%he Monroe Coctrine "roclaimed that the Destern @emis"here is $2merica8s bac5&ard,$ ) %he 9nited !tates hel"ed 4atin 2merican countries gain their inde"endence from !"ain and later in the t#entieth centur&, assisted them in the "rocess of democrati=ation, E !table democracies in 4atin 2merica reduce regional crises and increase coo"eration, %oda&, the 9nited !tates needs a stable 4atin 2merica in order to assure itself an im"ortant source of regional oil, .

Increase' C inese infl&ence 'estroys *2(2 egemony --- *2(2 co&l'nCt oppose C ina <ega/ : ('uan, ',C, candidate at the 9ni3ersit& of Minnesota 4a# !chool, M,7,2 at the 9ni3ersit& of Florida, LChina8s Economic and Political Clout Gro#s in 4atin 2merica at the E/"ense of 9,!, Interests,M 0. Minn, ', Global %rade E((, !ummer )**I, le/is, %ashma1 C, Chinese 4e3erage Dith China8s gro#ing s"here of influence and economic clout comes le3erage that it ma& use to frustrate 9,!, interests and to gain su""ort for di"lomatic, "olitical, and "erha"s militar& ZbE?(R initiati3es, 0E( Much li5e the former !o3iet 9nion8s "o#erful control o3er its $member$ countries, communist China ma& ha3e similar le3erage o3er 4atin 2merica n countries, If China reaches this le3el of influence and if the 9nited !tates confronts China on an economic, "olitical, or militar& matter, no 4atin 2merican countr& could economicall& afford to o""ose China, 0EX Moreo3er, t e *nited (tates itself may not !e in a position to oppose C ina2 %he trade dis"arit& bet#een the 9nited
!tates and China is the greatest of an& countr& "air in the #orldJ China e/"orts [ 00. billion #orth of goods to the 9nited !tates and im"orts onl& [ )* billion from the 9nited !tates, 0E? 9,!, manufacturers ha3e o"ened factories in China, "redicting that in the ne/t fi3e &ears technolog& manufacturing #ill be centered there, 0.* In the e3ent of a confrontation, the 9nited !tates ma& lose 0**,*** e/"ort-oriented Fobs, 0.0 %he 9nited !tates must reali=e that the Chinese threat is real and it must

e/amine its o#n "olicies to#ards 4atin 2merica before China8s le3erage can no longer be countered,

Impact H&man 9ig ts ,AC

C inese egemony in Latin America 'estroys regional 'emocracies --- t at specifically correlates to #i'esprea' &man rig ts a!&ses <ega/ : ('uan, ',C, candidate at the 9ni3ersit& of Minnesota 4a# !chool, M,7,2 at the 9ni3ersit& of Florida, LChina8s Economic and Political Clout Gro#s in 4atin 2merica at the E/"ense of 9,!, Interests,M 0. Minn, ', Global %rade E((, !ummer )**I, le/is, %ashma1 ), Cemocrac& and @uman Rights In a democratic countr&, elected leaders are held accountable b& their constituents, In an authoritarian or communist countr&, there are no such chec5s and balances, Dhile some dictators or communist leaders are benign, there is no "olitical safeguard that #ill "re3ent future, male3olent leaders from ta5ing aggressi3e action against their o#n "eo"le or other countries, In the e3ent that citi=ens "rotest, non-democratic leaders #ill Buic5l& silence dissidents and continue to act #ith im"unit&, 0.? %he safest #a& to ensure "eace and coo"eration is to "romote democrac& and res"ect for human rights, C ina7s gro#ing infl&ence in Latin America represents a ris. to &nsta!le 'emocracies in t e region2 If unchec5ed, China8s economic "rominence #ill cause fragile democracies in 4atin 2merica to thin5 t#ice about the su""osed benefits of democrac&, ca"italism, and globali=ation, 0I* %here is a common misconce"tion that, since 4atin 2merican countries are democracies Zb.**R (#ith the e/ce"tion of Cuba1, democrac& is "ermanent, 0I0 7ased on the re3ersing trends of the "ast four &ears, it is e3ident that regional democrac& is unstable, 0I) 2s
more socialist "residents are elected throughout 4atin 2merica and faith in the benefits of democrac& and ca"italism diminish, 4atin 2mericans ma& begin to fa3or authoritarian regimes, 0IE 2s China in3ests hea3il& in the

region, bringing Fobs and "ro3iding access to 4atin 2merican "roducers for o3er one-and-a-half billion Chinese consumers, 4atin 2merican 3oters ma& begin to belie3e that communism can reall& #or5, Communist China offers
4atin 2merican countries an o""ortunit& to see the economic benefits of such a s&stem, %he 3ices of communism ha3e been e3ident throughout the t#entieth centur&, 9nli5e Karl Mar/8s stateless, classless, communist nation, $communist$ countries ha3e actuall& been ruthless in their "ursuit of "art& lo&alt& and obedience, 0I. 9nli5e the moderate, e3olutionar&, and la#-abiding outloo5 that intellectuals had for communism in the beginning of the t#entieth centur&, histor& has "ro3en that the dictatorshi"

of the "roletariat has in fact su""ressed e/"ression, human rights, and other freedoms that "eo"le hold dear, 0II Dhile the 9nited !tates often offers trade incenti3es as a re#ard for adherence to "rinci"les of human rights, C ina is li.ely to 'isregar' s&c re1&irements2 0I+ E@tinction H9W/ 0E (@uman Rights Deb, 0??., L2n Introduction to the @uman Rights Mo3ementM, (-)*, htt"J--###,hr#eb,org-intro,html1
%he 9nited Nations Charter, 9ni3ersal Ceclaration of @uman Rights, and 9N @uman Rights con3enants #ere #ritten and im"lemented in the aftermath of the @olocaust, re3elations coming from the Nuremberg #ar crimes trials, the 7ataan Ceath March, the atomic bomb, and other horrors smaller in magnitude but not in im"act on the indi3iduals the& affected, 2 #hole lot of "eo"le in a number of countries had a crisis of conscience and found the& could no longer loo5 the other #a& #hile t&rants Failed, tortured, and 5illed their neighbors, Man& also reali=ed that ad3ances in technolog& and changes in social structures had rendered #ar a threat to the continued e/istence of the human race, 4arge numbers of "eo"le in man& countries li3ed under the control of t&rants,

ha3ing no recourse but #ar to relie3e often intolerable li3ing conditions , 9nless some #a& could re3olt and become the catal&st for another #ide-scale and "ossibl& nuclear #ar, For "erha"s the first time, re"resentati3es from the maForit& of go3ernments in the #orld came to the conclusion that basic human rights must be "rotected, not onl& for the sa5e of the indi3iduals and countries in3ol3ed, but to "reser3e the human race,
#as found to relie3e the lot of these "eo"le, the&

Impact H&man 9ig ts 1A9

ItCs 6ero-s&m --- fail&re to re"erse C inese infl&ence in t e region ren'ers *2(2 efforts to c&rtail &man rig ts a!&ses &seless <ega/ : ('uan, ',C, candidate at the 9ni3ersit& of Minnesota 4a# !chool, M,7,2 at the 9ni3ersit& of Florida, LChina8s Economic and Political Clout Gro#s in 4atin 2merica at the E/"ense of 9,!, Interests,M 0. Minn, ', Global %rade E((, !ummer )**I, le/is, %ashma1 ), @uman Right and Narcotics %raffic5ing For &ears the 9nited !tates has #or5ed to "romote human rights throughout 4atin 2merica, In contrast, on 'une ., 0?X? in %iananmen !Buare, 7eiFing, hundreds of student demonstrators #ho #ere ad3ocating for greater freedom #ere 5illed b& soldiers in the Chinese arm&, 00* Fifteen &ears later, some of the sur3i3ing students remain in "rison as do man& "olitical "risoners, 000 In the meantime, democratic countries in 4atin 2merica and Euro"e ha3e been #illing to o3erloo5 China8s 3iolations of human rights, 00) >n the global scale, C ina7s economic in"estments in ot er co&ntries, li5e the !udan, a"e fr&strate' *2(2 efforts to promote &man rig ts2 00E

Impact Iran E@pansionism ,AC

Iran e@pan'ing infl&ence no# in LA to c allenge *( po#er Warric./ 1, - Pulit=er Pri=e-#inning Fournalist, %he Dashington Post @ead Driter s"eciali=ing in the Middle East, di"lomac& and national securit& ('ob&, LIran see5s closer ties in 4atin 2merica,M 'anuar& )nd, )*0), 4e/isNe/is1--@24 Iran is Buietl& see5ing to e/"and its ties #ith 4atin 2merica in #hat 9,!, officials and regional e/"erts sa& is an effort to circum3ent economic sanctions and gain access to much-needed mar5ets and ra# materials, %he ne# di"lomatic offensi3e, #hich comes amid rising tensions #ith Dashington and Euro"ean "o#ers, includes a four-nation s#ing through !outh and Central 2merica this month b& Iranian President Mahmoud 2hmadineFad, @is go3ernment has 3o#ed to increase its economic, "olitical and militar& influence in the 9nited !tates8 bac5 &ard, %he 3isit reinforces recent commitments b& Iran to in3est millions of dollars in economic de3elo"ment "roFects for the region, from a mining Foint 3enture in Ecuador to factories for "etrochemicals and small-arms ammunition in :ene=uela, Iran has also dramaticall& e/"anded its di"lomatic missions throughout the hemis"here and dis"atched members of its elite guds Force - the militar& unit 9,!, officials in >ctober lin5ed to afoiled assassination "lot in Dashington - to ser3e in its embassies, 9,!, officials and Iran e/"erts sa&, %he
im"ortance of 2hmadineFad8s 3isit #as underscored last #ee5b& Iran8s state-o#ned Press %:, #hich said "romotion of $all-out coo"eration #ith 4atin 2merican countries is among the to" "riorities of the Islamic Re"ublic8s foreign "olic&,$ Iran has dis"atched a stream of lo#er-ran5ing officials to the region in recent months, 2hmadineFad granted a li3e inter3ie# Cec, 0E #ith :ene=uela8s state-o#ned broadcaster %ele!9R in #hich he hailed the close ties bet#een the t#o countries and boasted of Iran8s ad3ances in militar& technolog&, including unmanned drones, $No one dares attac5 Iran,$ 2hmadineFad said in the inter3ie#, Dith its latest outreach, Iran a""ears

to be see5ing to #oo bac5 4atin 2merican countries that ha3e gro#n #ar& of doing business #ith %ehran, Iran8s closest all& in the region, :ene=uela, had its largest "etroleum com"an& hit #ith 9,!, sanctions last &ear o3er its ties #ith Iran, !maller countries such as Nicaragua and 7oli3ia ha3e seen little of the millions of dollars in aid "romised b& Iranian officials o3er the "ast decade , 7ut #ith Destern nations threatening to bo&cott Iranian oil, the countr&8s leaders are scrambling to find #illing foreign "artners #ho can soften the blo# of sanctions and "ro3ide di"lomatic co3er for Iran8s nuclear ambitions, current and former 9,!, officials sa&, $Iran has been acti3el& #or5ing for &ears to e/"and its ties and influence in the Destern @emis"here, and it has found #illing "artners in the region8s anti-2merican des"ots,$ said Re", Ileana Ros-4ehtinen (R-Fla,1, chairman of the @ouse Foreign 2ffairs
Committee, Ros-4ehtinen said she #as disturbed b& 2hmadineFad8s "lans for #hat she called a $tour of t&rants,$ sa&ing it #ould bring $the Iranian threat closer to our shores,$ %he 3isit is e/"ected to include :ene=uela, Ecuador, Cuba and Nicaragua, #here the Iranian "resident #ill be a guest at the inauguration of ne#l& reelected leader Caniel >rtega, Get Iran8s efforts in the region also ha3e &ielded disa""ointments, Its 4atin 2merican "artners do far more business #ith the 9nited !tates and other Destern nations than #ith Iran, and most ha3e been reluctant to full& bac5 the Islamic re"ublic in dis"utes o3er sanctions or curbs on Iran8s nuclear "rogram, !ome #ould-be allies also ha3e been disa""ointed #hen Iran failed to deli3er on "romised de3elo"ment "roFects and Foint 3entures, such a "ro"osed [EI* million dee"-#ater "ort for Nicaragua, 2 re"ort released in No3ember b& the Center for !trategic and International !tudies, a Dashington thin5 tan5, Buestioned #hether Iran e3er could succeed at building an effecti3e su""ort net#or5 in the region, e3en if it managed to ma5e good on its grandiose commitments, $Dhile Iran8s o3ertures to "eri"heral states ha3e the "otential to #ea5en 9,!, attem"ts to contain and isolate Iran, %ehran8s #eb is fragile and "ossibl& illusor&,$ the C!I! re"ort said, Iran8s ambitions in the region date bac5 at least t#o decades, and %ehran #as lin5ed in the 0??*s to t#o bombings of 'e#ish centers, including 2rgentina8s #orst-e3er terrorist attac5 in 0??., Relations bet#een Iran and 4atin

2merica began to #arm shortl& after the )**I election of 2hmadineFad , #ho made the region a di"lomatic "riorit&, Iran has since o"ened si/ ne# missions there - in Colombia, Nicaragua, Chile, Ecuador, 9rugua& and 7oli3ia - and has e/"anded embassies in Cuba, 2rgentina, 7ra=il, Me/ico and :ene=uela, Former
9,!, intelligence officials sa& the "resence of guds Force officers and other militar& "ersonnel in di"lomatic missions enhances Iran8s abilit& to carr& out co3ert acti3ities, sometimes in conFunction #ith members of the Iran-bac5ed @e=bollah militant grou" that o"erates e/tensi3e net#or5s in 4atin 2merica and maintains ties #ith drug cartels, 9,!, officials sa& the guds Force #as behind the alleged "lot to hire Me/ican drug gangs to assassinate a !audi di"lomat in Dashington, $ For Iran to be so acti3e in

:ene=uela and for the guds Force to be there can onl& suggest Iran is serious about as&mmetrical force "roFection into our nec5 of the #oods, If Israel bombs Iran, #e ma& #ell see retaliator& stri5es aimed at 9,!, interests coming from these guds Force gu&s in !outh 2merica ,$ said 2rt Keller, a former case officer #ith the CI28s counter"roliferation di3ision, 2s di"lomatic relations ha3e gro#n bet#een Iran and 4atin 2merica, trade has soared, Iran recentl& sur"assed Russia as the biggest im"orter of beef
from 7ra=il, a countr& that sa# its e/"orts to Iran surge se3en-fold o3er the "ast decade to an annual le3el of [),0) billion,

Commerce #ith 2rgentina has climbed nearl& as ra"idl&, %rade #ith Ecuador lea"ed from [+ million to [0+X million in a single &ear, from )**( to )**X, 2nal&sts argue that an e/"anded foothold in 4atin 2merica also could "ro3ide Iran

#ith strategic ad3antages in its "rotracted struggle #ith Destern "o#ers , In :ene=uela, #here President @ugo Cha3e= is an a3o#ed su""orter of %ehran8s nuclear ambitions, Iran has o"ened ban5 branches and trans"ortation com"anies that 9,!, officials sa& enable Iran to circum3ent sanctions , >ne Iraniano#ned ban5 dre# s"ecial scrutin& in a stud& commissioned b& the Pentagon8s Cefense %hreat Reduction 2genc&, %he stud&, released in Ma&, described :ene=uela8s 7anco Internacional de Cesarrollo as an $o"aBue$ institution #ith an all-Iranian board of trustees, %he ban5, #hich is no# under 9,!, sanctions for su""orting terrorist net#or5s, o"erates #ith onl& a single branch in Caracas and a""ears immune from o3ersight b& the countr&8s regulators, according to the re"ort8s author, Couglas Farah, a senior fello# at the International 2ssessment and !trateg& Center, !uch institutions $afford Iran and its "ro/& elements state co3er and effecti3e immunit& for its co3ert acti3ities,$ Farah said in testimon& in 'ul& to the @ouse @omeland !ecurit& subcommittee on counterterrorism and intelligence, %hrough them, Iran can achie3e such goals as $unfettered access to global

ban5ing facilities, "orts and air"ortsN mining of "recursor elements for DMC and ad3anced #ea"ons s&stems fabricationN and a regional base for infiltration and contingenc& o"erations aimed at undermining the 9nited !tates and its interests,$ Farah said, Iran e@pansionism .ills *( egemony/ !&il's Iran n&clear stoc.pile an' ca&ses *(-Iran #ar Berman/ 1, W :ice President of the 2merican Foreign Polic& Council in Dashington, CC, 2n e/"ert on regional securit& in the Middle East, Central 2sia, and the Russian Federation, he has consulted for both the 9,!, Central Intelligence 2genc& and the 9,!, Ce"artment of Cefense, and "ro3ided assistance on foreign "olic& and national securit& issues to a range of go3ernmental agencies and congressional offices, a member of the 2ssociated Facult& at Missouri !tate 9ni3ersit&8s Ce"artment of Cefense and !trategic !tudies, 72 in Politics from 7randeis 9ni3ersit&, an M2 in International Politics from 2merican 9ni3ersit&, and a 'C from Dashington College of 4a# (Ilan, LIran Courts 4atin 2merica,M !ummer )*0), %he Middle Eastern guarterl&, :>49ME aIaJ N9M7ER E, "", +E-+?, htt"J--###,meforum,org-E)?(-iran-latin-americakQftnrefE*1--@24 >utreach to 4atin 2merica is seen b& the Iranian regime first and foremost as a means to lessen its dee"ening international isolation, !ince )**E, #hen its "re3iousl& clandestine nuclear "rogram became a "ressing international issue, %ehran has sought to mitigate the mounting "olitical and economic restrictions le3ied against it b& the 9nited !tates and its allies through intensified di"lomatic outreach abroad, Cue to its fa3orable geo"olitical climateHt&"ified b& 3ast ungo3erned areas and #ides"read anti-2mericanismH4atin 2merica has become an im"ortant focus of this effort, >3er
the "ast decade, the regime has nearl& doubled the number of embassies in the region (from si/ in )**I to ten in )*0*1 and has de3oted considerable energ& to forging economic bonds #ith s&m"athetic regional go3ernments,Z)R Far and a#a& the most "rominent such "artnershi" has been #ith :ene=uela, !ince @ugo Cha3e= became "resident in 0???, alignment #ith %ehran has emerged as a cardinal tenet of Caracas8s foreign "olic&, %he subseBuent election of Mahmoud 2hmadineFad to the Iranian "residenc& in )**I 5ic5ed coo"eration into high gear #ith dramatic results, %oda&, the t#o countries enFo& an e/tensi3e and 3ibrant strategic "artnershi", :ene=uela has emerged as an im"ortant source of material assistance for %ehran8s

s"ra#ling nuclear "rogram as #ell as a 3ocal di"lomatic bac5er of its right to atomic "o#er ,ZER %he
Cha3e= regime also has become a safe ha3en and source of financial su""ort for @e=bollah, Iran8s most "o#erful terrorist "ro/&,Z.R In turn, %ehran8s feared Re3olutionar& Guard has become in3ol3ed in training :ene=uela8s secret ser3ices and "olice,ZIR Economic contacts bet#een Caracas and %ehran li5e#ise ha3e e/"lodedHe/"anding from 3irtuall& nil in the earl& )***s to more than [)* billion in total trade and coo"eration agreements toda&,Z+R 'ust as significantl&, :ene=uela has ser3ed as Iran8s

gate#a& for further economic and di"lomatic e/"ansion into the region , 2ided b& its "artnershi" #ith
Caracas and bolstered b& a shared anti-2merican outloo5, %ehran has succeeded in forging significant strategic, economic, and "olitical lin5s #ith the regime of E3o Morales in 7oli3ia and Rafael Correa in Ecuador, E3en Iran8s relations #ith 2rgentina, #here Iranian-su""orted terrorists carried out maFor bombings in 0??) and 0??., ha3e im"ro3ed in recent times, as the go3ernment of President Cristina Fernande= de Kirchner has he#ed a more conciliator& line to#ard %ehran,Z(R It #ould be a mista5e, ho#e3er, to 3ie# these contacts as sim"l& "ragmaticHor strictl& defensi3e, %he Iranian regime8s sustained s&stematic

outreach to regional states suggests that it sees the Destern @emis"here as a crucial strategic theater for e/"anding its o#n influence and reducing that of the 9nited !tates , Indeed, a )**? dossier "re"ared b& Israel8s Ministr& of Foreign 2ffairs noted that $since 2hmadineFad8s rise to "o#er, %ehran has been "romoting an aggressi3e "olic& aimed at bolstering its ties #ith 4atin 2merican countries #ith the declared goal of 8bringing 2merica to its 5nees,8$ZXR %his 3ie# is increasingl& shared b& the 9,!, militar&J In its

)*0* re"ort on Iranian militar& "o#er, the >ffice of the !ecretar& of Cefense noted that $ Iran

see5s to increase its stature b& countering 9,!, influence and e/"anding ties #ith regional actors $ in 4atin 2merica,Z?R
%o this end, %ehran is ram"ing u" its strategic messaging to the region, In late 'anuar&, on the heels of 2hmadineFad8s 3er& "ublic four-countr& tour of 4atin 2merica, the Iranian regime formall& launched @is"an%:, a !"anish-language analogue to its Englishlanguage Press %: channel,Z0*R %he tele3ision outlet has been de"icted b& 2hmadineFad as "art of his go3ernment8s efforts to $limit the ground for su"remac& of dominance see5ers$Ha thinl&-3eiled reference to 9,!, influence in the Destern @emis"here,Z00R 2s 2hmadineFad8s statement indicates, %ehran is "ursuing a strateg& that "romotes its o#n ideolog& and

influence in 4atin 2merica at Dashington8s e/"ense, In this endea3or, it has been greatl& aided b& Cha3e=, #ho
himself has #or5ed diligentl& to diminish 9,!, "olitical and economic "resence in the region under the banner of a ne# $7oli3arian$ re3olution, !ince the start of the international crisis o3er Iran8s nuclear ambitions nearl& nine &ears ago, it has become an acce"ted belief that %ehran8s atomic "rogram is no# largel& self-sufficient and that its "rogress is, therefore, largel& ine/orable, %his, ho#e3er, is far from the truthN in fact, the Iranian regime currentl& runs a considerable, and gro#ing,

deficit of uranium ore, the critical ra# material needed to fuel its atomic effort, 2ccording to non"roliferation e/"erts, %ehran8s indigenous uranium ore reser3es are 5no#n to be both $limited and mostl& of "oor Bualit&,$Z0)R Dhen !hah Mohammed Re=a Pahla3i ma""ed out an ambitious national "lan for nuclear "o#er
in the 0?(*s, his go3ernment #as forced to "rocure significant Buantities of the mineral from !outh 2frica, Nearl& four decades later, this aging stoc5"ile has re"ortedl& been mostl& de"leted,Z0ER 2s a result, in recent &ears, %ehran has embar5ed

on a #idening Buest to acBuire uranium ore from abroad, In )**?, for e/am"le, it is 5no#n to ha3e attem"ted
to "urchase more than 0,*** tons of uranium ore from the Central 2sian re"ublic of Ka=a5hstan at a cost of nearl& half-a-billion dollars,Z0.R In that "articular case, deft di"lomac& on the "art of Dashington and its Euro"ean allies hel"ed st&mie %ehran8s efforts Hat least for the time being, %he Iranian Buest, ho#e3er, has not abated, In Februar& )*00, an intelligence summar& from a member state of the International 2tomic Energ& 2genc& reaffirmed the Islamic regime8s continued search for ne# and stable sources of uranium to fuel its nuclear "rogram,Z0IR %his effort has recentl& focused on t#o "rinci"al geogra"hic areas, %he first is 2frica #here %ehran has made concerted efforts to engage a number of uranium "roducers such as ]imbab#e, !enegal, Nigeria, and the Cemocratic Peo"le8s Re"ublic of Congo,Z0+R %he second is 4atin 2merica #here %ehran no# is e/"loring and

de3elo"ing a series of significant resource "artnershi"s, %he best 5no#n of these "artnershi"s is #ith
:ene=uelaN coo"eration on strategic resources has emerged as a defining feature of the alliance bet#een the Islamic Re"ublic and the Cha3e= regime, %he Iranian regime is currentl& 5no#n to be mining in the Roraima 7asin, adFacent

to :ene=uela8s border #ith Gu&ana, !ignificantl&, that geological area is belie3ed to be analogous to Canada8s 2thabasca 7asin,
the #orld8s largest de"osit of uranium,Z0(R 7oli3ia, too, is fast becoming a significant source of strategic resources for the Iranian regime, Dith the sanction of the Morales go3ernment, %ehran is no# belie3ed to be e/tracting uranium from as man& as ele3en different sites in 7oli3ia8s east, "ro/imate to the countr&8s industrial ca"ital of !anta Cru=,Z0XR Not coincidentall&, it is rumored that the no#-infamous %ehran-Caracas air route o"erated Fointl& b& Con3iasa, :ene=uela8s national airline, and Iran8s state carrier, Iran 2ir, #ill be e/tended in the near future to !anta Cru=,Z0?R 2dditionall&, a series of coo"eration agreements concluded in )*0* bet#een 4a Pa= and %ehran ha3e made Iran a $"artner$ in the mining and e/"loitation of 7oli3ia8s lithium, a 5e& strategic mineral #ith a""lications for nuclear #ea"ons de3elo"ment,Z)*R Iran e3en a""ears to be e&eing Ecuador8s uranium de"osits, 2 [E* million Foint mining deal concluded bet#een %ehran and guito bac5 in )**? has "ositioned the Correa regime to e3entuall& become a su""lier for the Islamic Re"ublic,Z)0R Regional e/"erts note that Iran8s mining and e/traction efforts in 4atin 2merica are still com"arati3el& modest in nature, constrained b& com"etition from larger countries such as Canada and China and b& %ehran8s o#n a3ailable resources and 5no#-ho#,Z))R @o#e3er, the region is unBuestionabl& 3ie#ed as a target of o""ortunit&

in Iran8s #idening Buest for strategic resourcesHboth because of its fa3orable "olitical o"erating en3ironment and because states there (es"eciall& 7oli3ia1 re"resent un5no#n Buantities in terms of resource #ealth, %his raises the "ossibilit& that 4atin 2merica could emerge in the near future as a significant "ro3ider of strategic resources for the Iranian regime and a 5e& source of sustenance for Iran8s e/"anding nuclear "rogram, 2 7ase for 2ttac56 Con3entional #isdom in Dashington has long held that %ehran8s acti3ism in the 2mericas is o""ortunisticH rather than o"erational, Get Iran8s gro#ing as&mmetric ca"abilities throughout the region ha3e the "otential to be directed against the 9,!, homeland, %his #as hammered home b& the foiled >ctober )*00 "lot, an attac5 #hichHhad it been successfulH#ould "otentiall& ha3e 5illed scores of 9,!, citi=ens in the nation8s ca"ital in the most significant terrorist e3ent since ?-00, %he incident re"resents a seismic shift in %ehran8s strategic calculations, 2s Cirector of National Intelligence 'ames Cla""er obser3ed in his 'anuar& )*0) testimon& before the !enate !elect Committee on Intelligence, in res"onse to mounting international "ressure and as&mmetric acti3it& against %ehran8s nuclear "rogram, it a""ears that $Iranian officialsH"robabl& including !u"reme 4eader 2li Khamene8iHha3e changed their calculus and are no# #illing to conduct an attac5 in the 9nited !tates,$Z)?R 4atin 2merica figures "rominentl& in this eBuation, %he foiled >ctober )*00 "lot suggests that %ehran increasingl& deems the region an ad3antageous o"erational theater, Moreo3er, as its influence and acti3ities there intensif&, the Iranian regime #ill be able to field a "rogressi3el& more robust o"erational "resence in the 2mericas , Cla""er concluded

his !enate testimon& #ith an ominous #arningJ $%he

Iranian regime has formed alliances #ith Cha3e=, >rtega, Castro, and Correa that man& belie3e can destabili=e the hemis"here, $ he noted, $%hese alliances can "ose an immediate threat b& gi3ing Iran Hdirectl& through the IRGC, the gods force, or its "ro/ies li5e @e=bollahHa "latform in the region to carr& out attac5s against the 9nited !tates, our interests, and allies,$ZE*R

Impact Iran E@pansionism Hegemony

Iranian infl&ence ca&ses a cy!erattac. an' .ills *( egemony %a =ar-Bar'&cci/ 11 W Moroccan-Italian researcher and author, based in 'erusalem, !he #or5ed for Euro"ean and Middle Eastern media, @er o"inion "ieces ha3e been "ublished in Corriere della !era (Ital&1, 2l-2rabi&a (92E1, @aaret= (Israel1, Cail& !tar (4ebanon1 and she has a""eared as a guest anal&st also in 2frican media, !he has "ublished se3eral boo5s including $Italo-Marocchina$ (Ital&, )**?1 and $Pa5istan E/"ress$ (Ital&, )*001, (2nna, LIran Pre"aring !erious C&ber 2ttac5 2gainst the 9,!, from 4atin 2merica,M Cecember 0.th, )*00, htt"J--###,gatestoneinstitute,org-)++)-iran-c&ber-attac5-against-us1--@24 9ni3ision, the largest %: broadcaster in !"anish of the 9nited !tates, recentl& "resented a re"ort sho#ing that Iran is acti3el& "re"aring an attac5 against the 9! to be carried out from bases in 4atin 2merica, %he documentar&, $4a 2mena=a Irani$ ($%he Iranian %hreat$1, illustrated, though underco3er footage, ho# the gro#ing economic, "olitical and militar& ties Iran has de3elo"ed in !outh 2merican countries are ra"idl& e3ol3ing into a tangible threat for the securit& of the 9!, %he documentar& re3eals e/clusi3e findings, including secret 3ideo and audio recordings that "ro3ide information about a
"lanned Iranian-bac5ed c&ber attac5 against the 9nited !tates from Me/ico, %he 3ideos sho#n #ere "art of a se3en month in3estigation during #hich a team of Fournalists trac5ed the e/"ansion of Iranian interests in the 4atin 2merica W including mone& laundering and drug traffic5ing acti3ities b& terrorist grou"s su""orted b& Iran, In :ene=uela, the team managed to infiltrate Iranian militar& training cam"s organi=ed from Iranian-financed mosBues #ithin the countr&, %he documentar& also confirms that Iran

is behind mone& laundering and drug traffic5ing acti3ities that are used to su""ort Islamist net#or5s and training cam"s in :ene=uela and else#here, #ith the ultimate goal of undermining 2merican interests in 4atin 2merica and inside the 9!, %he team of Fournalist also infiltrated the di"lomatic milieu in Me/ico #ith the hel" of &oung uni3ersit& students #ho "osed as s"ies and offered their ser3ices to different officials from Iran, :ene=uela and Cuba for carr&ing out a c&bernetic attac5 on sensiti3e 2merican targets that #ould cri""le 9,!, com"uter s&stems of command centers such as the Dhite @ouse, the Pentagon, the F7I, the CI2 and different 9! nuclear "lants, >ne of the officials contacted #as former 2mbassador of Iran to Me/ico, Mohamad @assan Ghadiri, #ho #as 3ideoed #hile acce"ting the hel" of the Me/ican students for carr&ing out a maFor informatics
attac5 to the 9!, 9ni3ision re"orts that during his sta& in Me/ico, Ghadiri $embar5ed on a cam"aign to increase the "resence of Iran in Me/ico, @is "lan e3en included a "roFect to o"en a consulate in %iFuana,$ %he %: channel also re"orted that Ghadiri tried to grant access into Me/ico to Edgardo Ruben 2ssad, an Islamic acti3ist accused b& 2rgentina of "artici"ating in the attac5s on 'e#ish organi=ations in 7uenos 2ires in 0??) and 0??.,

Ghadiri is sho#n in the documentar& as acce"ting a "lan to launch from Me/ico a c&ber #ar on the 9,!, !imilar attitudes #ere found #ith :ene=uelan and Cuban high officials, all 3er& interested in su""orting an Iranian-s"onsored "lot against the 9!, %he idea of the Iranian officials is to create a

net#or5 of "eo"le in !outh 2merica, >ne Me/ican student #as in3ited to Iran to stud& Islam for t#o months, @e #as ordered to learn about the Islamic religion and the Islamic re3olution in order to be sent bac5 to Me/ico to "reach Islam, Dhile in Iran, the infiltrated Me/ican met Muslims from :ene=uela, Ecuador, 2rgentina and 7oli3ia , all of #hom had con3erted to Islam and #ere stud&ing to o"en mosBues bac5 in 4atin 2merica, $>ne of the Iranian shei5s, 2li gomi, #hen I first gained his trust, told me that #hat the& are no# doing is #aging an intellectual #arN #hat the& are "lanning to do is "re"are "eo"le #ith information so that the& can attac5 the masses intellectuall&, %his is #hat the& are doing directl& from gom, Precisel& in gom,$said the underco3er student, #ho #as ris5ing his life in Iran, In a "ress release, 9ni3ision said that it had at its dis"osal $tens of hours of secret recordings, and had conducted e/tensi3e inter3ie#s #ith "eo"le #ho "artici"ated in the meetings, including a former Iranian ambassadorN and Zthat the& hadR e/amined documents ranging from hand-#ritten notes to internal federal re"orts, and obtained an un"ublished 3ideo of a failed bomb attac5 against Ne# Gor58s 'FK air"ort,$ 9ni3ision8s cr& of alarm against Iranian acti3ities in !outh 2merica is not the first of its 5ind, Iran8s ties #ith :ene=uela ha3e been gro#ing steadil& during the "residenc& of @ugo Cha3e=, Iran

also enFo&s e/cellent relations #ith countries such as 7oli3ia, Ecuador, Nicaragua, not to mention the !outh 2merican giants, 2rgentina and 7ra=il, %he im"ro3ement of these relations has gone hand in hand #ith the e/"ansion of Islamist grou"s in !outh 2merica, in "articular @e=bollah, #hich once #ere relegated to the %ri-7order 2rea (Paragua&, 7ra=il and 2rgentina1, !ince then, the& ha3e been e/"anding their =one of interest farther and farther north to reach :ene=uela and Me/ico, at the doorste" of the 9!, %he 9nited !tated has constantl& underestimated the danger coming from Iranian acti3ities both in Iran and in !outh 2merica, In "articular, the >bama administration has failed to confront the Iranian threat #ith effecti3e firmness, 2fter his election, President 7arac5 >bama declared that he #as #illing to tal5 to Iran
$#ithout "re-conditions,$,onl& to recei3e, in e/change, threats from the Iranian regime, $4a 2mena=a Irani$ is a courageous testament to in3estigati3e Fournalism, It #arns of a genuine threat to be dealt #ith utmost urgenc&, 4et us ho"e that its #arning does not fall, once again, on deaf ears in Dashington,

*( primacy pre"ents glo!al conflict 'iminis ing po#er creates a "ac&&m t at ca&ses transition #ars in m&ltiple places Broo.s et al 14 Z!te"hen G, 7roo5s is 2ssociate Professor of Go3ernment at Cartmouth College,G, 'ohn I5enberr& is the 2lbert G, Milban5 Professor of Politics and International 2ffairs at Princeton 9ni3ersit& in the Ce"artment of Politics and the Doodro# Dilson !chool of Public and International 2ffairs, @e is also a Global Eminence !cholar at K&ung @ee 9ni3ersit&,Dilliam C, Dohlforth is the Caniel Debster Professor in the Ce"artment of Go3ernment at Cartmouth College, LCon8t Come @ome, 2mericaJ %he Case against RetrenchmentM, Dinter )*0E, :ol, E(, No, E, Pages (I0,htt"J--###,mit"ressFournals,org-doi-abs-0*,00+)-I!ECQaQ**0*(, GCI FileR 2 core "remise of dee" engagement is that it "re3ents the emergence of a far more dangerous global securit& en3ironment, For one thing, as noted abo3e, the 9nited !tates o3erseas "resence gi3es it the le3erage to restrain "artners from ta5ing "ro3ocati3e action, Perha"s more im"ortant, its core alliance commitments also deter states #ith

as"irations to regional hegemon& from contem"lating e/"ansion and ma5e its "artners more secure, reducing their incenti3e to ado"t solutions to their securit& "roblems that threaten others and thus sto5e securit& dilemmas, %he contention that engaged 9,!, "o#er dam"ens the baleful effects of anarch& is consistent #ith influential 3ariants of realist theor&, Indeed, arguabl& the scariest "ortra&al of the #ar-"rone #orld that #ould emerge absent the L2merican PacifierM is "ro3ided in the #or5s of 'ohn Mearsheimer, #ho forecasts dangerous multi"olar regions re"lete #ith securit& com"etition, arms races, nuclear "roliferation and associated "re3enti3e #artem"tations, regional ri3alries, and e3en runs at regional hegemon& and full-scale great "o#er #ar, () @o# do retrenchment ad3ocates, the bul5 of #hom are realists, discount this benefit6 %heir arguments are com"licated, but t#o ca"ture most of the 3ariationJ (01 9,!, securit& guarantees are not necessar& to "re3ent dangerous ri3alries and conflict in EurasiaN or ()1 "re3ention of ri3alr& and conflict in Eurasia is not a 9,!, interest, Each res"onse is connected to a different theor& or set of theories, #hich ma5es sense gi3en that the #hole debate hinges on a com"le/ future counterfactual (#hat #ould ha""en to Eurasias securit& setting if the 9nited !tates trul& disengaged61, 2lthough a certain ans#er is im"ossible, each of these res"onses is nonetheless a #ea5er argument for retrenchment than ad3ocates ac5no#ledge, %he first res"onse flo#s from defensi3e realism as #ell as other international relations theories that discount the conflict-generating "otential of anarch& under contem"orar& conditions, (E Cefensi3e realists maintain that the high e/"ected costs of territorial conBuest, defense dominance, and an arra& of "olicies and "ractices that can be used credibl& to signal benign intent, mean that Eurasias maFor states could manage regional multi"olarit& "eacefull& #ithout the2merican "acifier, Retrenchment #ould be a bet on this scholarshi", "articularl& in regions #here the 5inds of stabili=ers that nonrealist theories "oint toHsuch as democratic go3ernance or dense institutional lin5agesHare either absent or #ea5l& "resent, %here are three other maFor bodies of scholarshi", ho#e3er, that might gi3e decisionma5ers "ause before ma5ing this bet, First is regional e/"ertise, Needless to sa&, there is no consensus on the net securit& effects of 9,!, #ithdra#al, Regarding each region, there are o"timists and "essimists, Fe# e/"erts e/"ect a return of intense great "o#er com"etition in a "ost-2merican Euro"e, but man& doubt Euro"ean go3ernments #ill "a& the "olitical costs of increased E9 defense coo"eration and the budgetar& costs of increasing militar& outla&s, (. %he result might be

Euro"e that is inca"able of securing itself from 3arious threats that could be destabili=ing #ithin the region and be&ond (e,g,, a regional conflict a5in to the 0??*s 7al5an #ars1, lac5s ca"acit& for global securit& missions in #hich 9,!, leaders might #ant Euro"ean "artici"ation, and is 3ulnerable to the influence of outside rising "o#ers, Dhat about the other "arts of Eurasia #here the 9nited !tates has a substantial militar& "resence6 Regarding the Middle East, the balance begins tos#ing to#ard "essimists concerned that states currentl& bac5ed b& Dashington H notabl& Israel, Eg&"t, and !audi 2rabiaHmight ta5e actions u"on 9,!, retrenchment that #ould intensif& securit& dilemmas, 2nd concerning East 2sia, "essimismregarding the regions "ros"ects #ithout the 2merican "acifier is "ronounced, 2rguabl& the "rinci"al concern e/"ressed b& area e/"erts is that 'a"an and !outh Korea are li5el& to o!tain a n&clear capacity and increase their militar& commitments, #hich could sto5e a 'esta!ili6ing reaction from C ina , It is notable that during the Cold Dar, both !outh Korea and %ai#an mo3ed to
a obtain a nuclear #ea"ons ca"acit& and #ere onl& constrained from doing so b& astill-engaged 9nited !tates, (I %he second bod& of scholarshi" casting doubt on the bet on defensi3e realisms sanguine "ortra&al is all of the research that undermines its conce"tion of state "references, Cefensi3e realisms o"timism about #hat #ould ha""en if the 9nited !tates retrenched is 3er& much de"endent on its"articularHand highl& restricti3eHassum"tion about state "referencesN once #e rela/ this assum"tion, then much of its basis for o"timism 3anishes, !"ecificall&, the "rediction of "ost-2merican tranBuilit& throughout Eurasia rests on the assum"tion that securit& is the onl& rele3ant state "reference, #ith securit& defined narro#l& in terms of "rotection from 3iolent e/ternal attac5s on the homeland, 9nder that assum"tion, the securit& "roblem is largel& sol3ed as soon as offense and defense are clearl& distinguishable, and offense is e/tremel& e/"ensi3e relati3e to defense, 7urgeoning

research across the social and other sciences, ho#e3er,undermines that core assum"tionJ states ha3e "references not onl& for securit& but also for "restige, status , and other aims, and the&engage in trade-offs among the 3arious obFecti3es, (+ In addition, the& define securit& not Fust in terms of territorial "rotection but in 3ie# of man& and 3aried milieu goals , It follo#s that e3en states that are relati3el& secure ma& ne3ertheless engage in highl& com"etiti3e beha3ior, Em"irical studies sho# that this is indeed sometimes the case, (( In sum, a bet on a benign "ostretrenchment Eurasia is a bet that leaders of maFor countries #ill ne3er allo# these nonsecurit& "references to influence their strategic choices, %o the degree that these bodies of scholarl& 5no#ledge ha3e "redicti3e le3erage, 9,!, retrenchment #ould result in a significant deterioration in the securit& en3ironment in at least some of the #orlds 5e& regions, De ha3e alread& mentioned the third, e3en more alarming bod& of scholarshi", >ffensi3e realism "redicts that the #ithdra#al of the 2merican "acifier #ill &ield either a com"etiti3e regional multi"olarit& com"lete #ith associated insecurit&, arms racing, crisis instabilit&, nuclear "roliferation , and the li5e, or bids for regional hegemon&, #hich ma& be be&ond the ca"acit& of local great "o#ers to contain (and #hich in an& case #ould generate intensel& com"etiti3e beha3ior, "ossibl& including regional great "o#er #ar1,

Impact Iran E@pansionism +errorism

Iran e@pansionism into Latin America lea's to W%D terrorism;*( engagement sol"es Fo@man/ 0 - National Cirector of the 2nti-Cefamation 4eague, PhC in 'e#ish studies at the 'e#ish %heological !eminar& and in international economics at Ne# Gor58s Ne# !chool for !ocial Research (2braham, LIran Is Not a Good Partner For 4atin 2merica,M %his article originall& a""eared in Council of the 2mericas (:ie#"oints 2mericas1 on 'ul& )E, )**?, htt"J--###,adl,org-"ress-center-c-iran-is-not-a-good-"artner-for-latin-america,html1--@24
%he fraudulent Iranian "residential election and its re"ressi3e aftermath "ut the focus on the Islamic regime8s beha3ior in an un"recedented manner, E3en during the more than one &ear hostage crisis of 0?(?-0?X*, Iran had its defenders, based on criticism of 9,!, treatment of Iran going bac5 to the 9,!,-su""orted cou" against Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh in 0?IE, %oda&, Iran has been e/"osed, Efforts to blame the 9,!,, Israel, and 7ritain e/"ectedl& continue but ha3e no im"act, %he go3ernment has attac5ed its o#n "eo"le, has abandoned an& "retense of res"ecting the 3oice of its citi=ens, and has come under attac5 from some fairl& conser3ati3e clerics, It has lost legitimac& and can8t successfull& conFure u" the usual enemies to di3ert attention from its abuses, 2s a result, internal and e/ternal actors are more #illing to "a& attention to Iran

as a destructi3e force in the #orld , Most im"ortantl&, this a""lies to the "otential of a nuclear Iran and its clear intention to de3elo" nuclear arms, %here is ne# o""ortunit& to "ut the sBuee=e on %eheran, It also a""lies, ho#e3er, to another troubling area #hich has been the subFect of far less attentionJ Iran8s threatening e/"ansion in 4atin 2merica, Iran has seen 4atin 2merica as a region of o""ortunit& at least for )* &ears, Its "lanning and im"lementation in the earl& 0??*s of the terrorist attac5s against the Israeli Embass& and the 'e#ish Communit& Center in 7uenos 2ires (2MI21, and its use of its surrogate @e=bollah in those destructi3e o"erations signaled that Iran belie3ed it had a certain freedom to carr& out terrorist attac5s on 4atin 2merican territor&, !ince then, a series of factors ha3e come together to allo# Iran to s"read its influence on the continent, Most im"ortant has been the coming to "o#er in se3eral countries of leaders and "arties #ho are inimical to the
9nited !tates, %his has translated into economic deals because of a 5e& factor at #or5, Iran8s oil #ealth, @ad Iran sim"l& loo5ed for allies based on $the enem& of m& enem& is m& friend,$ that #ould ha3e been one thing, 7ut Iran has cut a series of deals

in the region that ma5e tangible its influence, It is no# the second-largest in3estor in :ene=uela,
"la&ing a substantial financial role in the further de3elo"ment of :ene=uelan oil de"osits and is funding housing "roFects for the "oor, In 7oli3ia, Iran has a coo"erati3e arrangement #orth o3er [0 billion to de3elo" 7oli3ia8s oil, gas, and industrial sectors, It has set u" health clinics and training "rograms for "h&sicians, In Ecuador, Iran has signed a series of economic agreements in the last &ear including one for energ& "roduction, In Nicaragua, Iran has "romised millions in aid to#ard building a dam and a h&droelectric "o#er station, and donated [) million for the construction of a hos"ital, In these "roFects, the Iranians are follo#ing the

"rescri"tion that Islamic e/tremist grou"s ha3e been using for &ears to e/tend their influence in Middle Eastern countriesJ build a re"utation for social res"onsibilit& b& "ro3iding ser3ices, "articularl& to the need&, @e=bollah and @amas ha3e mastered this techniBue in an effort to #in "ublic su""ort and mas5 their e/tremist goals , Iran #as loo5ing for "olitical su""ort from these and other 4atin 2merican countries at a time #hen the 9,!, and Euro"e #ere tr&ing to isolate Iran o3er the nuclear issue, 7uilding hos"itals and housing for the "oor, in addition to the large business in3estments, clearl& #as intended to reinforce su""ort from the bottom u", 2ll of #hich is intended to ser3e the radical goals of the regime that has suddenl& dra#n more attention because of its gross domestic re"ression, Included in these goals are the s"read of Iran8s Islamic e/tremist ideolog&, the building of a "olitical alliance to offset international "ressures, and sustaining a net#or5 of agents through @e=bollah to be able to engage in terrorism in 4atin 2merica should the "ercei3ed need arise , No# that Iran has sho#n its true colors, there is a uniBue o""ortunit& to build international "ressureHthrough "ublicit& and di"lomatic, financial, and resource actionsHnot onl& against the regime8s nuclear "rogram but its 4atin 2merican agenda, 2 regime that so blatantl& denies the 3oice of its "eo"le b& rigging an election and 3iolentl& su""ressing "ublic outrage cannot be trusted on the international scene ,
Ma&be a united outrage from the international communit& could ma5e some of these 4atin 2merican leaders "ause before engaging #ith this illegitimate regime, Ma&be the& #ill reali=e that the future #ell-being of the "eo"le of 4atin 2merica

cannot be secured b& the connection to the 3icious e/tremists in charge in %ehran, 9es&lts in W%D terrorism on t e *2(2

An'erson/ ?8 (0*-X-)**X, Curt, 2P, L9! officials fear terrorist lin5s #ith drug lords,M
htt"J--usatoda&E*,usatoda&,com-ne#s-nation-)**X-0*-*X-X*I0.+(*?Q/,htm1 MI2MI H %here

is real danger that Islamic e/tremist grou"s such as al-gaida and @e=bollah could form alliances #ith #ealth& and "o#erful 4atin 2merican drug lords to launch ne# terrorist attac5s, 9,!, officials said Dednesda&, E/tremist grou" o"erati3es ha3e alread& been identified in se3eral 4atin 2merican countries, mostl& in3ol3ed in fundraising and finding logistical su""ort, 7ut Charles 2llen, chief of intelligence anal&sis at the @omeland !ecurit& Ce"artment, said the& could use #ell-established smuggling routes and drug "rofits to bring "eo"le or e3en #eapons of mass 'estr&ction to the 9,!, $%he "resence of these "eo"le in the region lea3es o"en the "ossibilit& that the& #ill attem"t to attac5 the *nited (tates,$ said 2llen, a 3eteran CI2 anal&st, $%he threats in this hemis"here are real, E@tinction Corsi P: RSerome2 ) D in )oli (ci from Har"ar'/ E@pert in )olitically-

De cannot ignore them,$ 2dded 9,!, Crug Enforcement 2dministration o"erations chief Michael 7raunJ $It is not in our interest to let that "ot"ourri of scum to come together,$

%oti"ate' <iolence2 Atomic Iran/ )g 1>$-8OOS<D((T

%he combination of horror and outrage that #ill surge u"on the nation #ill demand that the "resident retaliate for the incom"rehensible damage done b& the attac5, %he "roblem #ill be that the "resident #ill not immediatel& 5no# ho# to res"ond or against #hom , %he "er"etrators #ill ha3e Nor #ill there be an& "ossibilit& of finding an& clues, #hich either #ere 3a"ori=ed instantl& or are no# l&ing "h&sicall& inaccessible under tons of radioacti3e rubble, !till, the "resident, members of Congress, the militar&, and the "ublic at large #ill sus"ect another attac5 b& our 5no#n enem& WIslamic terrorists, %he first im"ulse #ill be to launch a nuclear stri5e on Mecca, to destro& the #hole religion of Islam, Medina could "ossibl& be added to the target list Fust to ma5e the "oint #ith cr&stal clarit&, Get #hat #ould #e gain6 %he moment Mecca and Medina #ere #i"ed off the ma", the Islamic #orld W more than 0 billion human beings in countless different nations W #ould feel attac5ed, Nothing #ould emerge intact after a #ar bet#een the 9nited !tates and Islam, %he a"ocal&"se #ould be u"on us, ZC>N%IN9E!{ >r the "resident might decide sim"l& to
at the Em"ire !tate 7uilding, launch a limited nuclear stri5e on %ehran itself, %his might be the most rational o"tion in the attem"t to retaliate but still communicate restraint, %he "roblem is that a stri5e on %ehran #ould add more nuclear de3astation to the #orld calculation, Muslims

been incinerated b& the e/"losion that destro&ed Ne# Gor5 Cit&, 9nli5e ?-00, there #ill ha3e been no inter3al during the attac5 #hen those hiFac5ed could ma5e "hone calls to lo3ed ones telling them before the& died that the hiFac5ers #ere radical Islamic e/tremists, %here #ill be no such "hone calls #hen the attac5 #ill not ha3e been antici"ated until the instant the terrorists detonate their im"ro3ised nuclear de3ice inside the truc5 "ar5ed on a curb

around the #orld #ould still see the retaliation as an attac5 on Islam, es"eciall& #hen the 9nited !tates had no "ositi3e "roof that the destruction of Ne# Gor5 Cit& had been triggered b& radical Islamic e/tremists #ith assistance from Iran, 7ut for the "resident not to retaliate might be unacce"table to the 2merican "eo"le, !o #ea5ened b& the loss of Ne#
#ould be no effecti3e ans#er, %hat

Gor5, 2mericans #ould feel 3ulnerable in e3er& cit& in the nation, $Dho is going to be ne/t6$ #ould be the Buestion on e3er&one8s mind, For this there

the "resident might thin5 "oliticall& at this instant seems almost "ett&, &et e3er& "resident is b& nature a "olitician, %he "olitical "art& in "o#er at the time of the attac5 #ould be destro&ed unless the "resident retaliated #ith a nuclear stri5e against somebod&, %he 2merican "eo"le #ould feel a "rice had to be "aid #hile the countr& #as still ca"able of e/acting re3enge,

Impact Iran E@pansionism LA Heg (ol"es

Increase' engagement sol"es Iranian e@pansionism 5arpo"a/ 1, W (4isa, L9! #ar& of Iranian influence in 4atin 2merica,M >ctober 0* th, )*0), htt"J--english,"ra3da,ru-hots"ots-crimes-0*-*I-)*0)-0)0*XE9!Q#ar&QofQIranianQinfluence-*-1--@24 Iranian influence in 4atin 2merica gi3es rise to #orr& in 9nited !tates , %he !"ea5er of the @ouse of Re"resentati3es, Re"ublican 'ohn 7oehner, has e/"ressed concern about the e/"ansion of Iranian influence in 4atin 2merica and claimed that Iran8s "resence in this region is a maFor and significant threat, Curing a conference held %uesda& at the 9,!, !tate Ce"artment, 'ohn 7oehner said that a "ossible rift bet#een the 9,!, and 4atin 2merica could threaten unit& and democrac& in the region , sa&ing that, $%he 9,!, go3ernment needs to intensif& its coo"eration #ith 4atin 2merica to sto" Iranian e/"ansion,$ Referring to the last 3isit of Iranian President Mahmud 2hmadineFad to 4atin 2merican countries, he said that $the 3isit of the Persian to the region re3eals that Iran has "lans to increase its influence in 4atin 2merica,$ @e noted also that the Iranian "resident8s 3isit to Cuba and :ene=uela stressed Iran8s interest in e/"anding its ties #ith the current go3ernments in the Destern @emis"here, @e #arned against $3oices$ of both the Cemocratic Part& of President 7arac5 >bama and Re"ublican ad3ocates of reducing coo"eration #ith the region to sto" aid to countries li5e Colombia and Me/ico, @e urged 9,!, authorities to increase their direct coo"eration "olic& #ith 4atin 2merican countries , 7oehner, #ho #elcomed the ratification in >ctober in the 9,!, Congress of the free trade agreements #ith Colombia and Panama, said the goal no# should be to achie3e a continent #ith $free mar5et, free trade and free citi=ens$ and thereb& the 9,!, can com"romise #ith 4atin 2merican countries, %he increasing trend of "ublic o"inion in 4atin 2merica to the "rogressi3e go3ernments in the region has considerabl& declined 9,!, influence, and thus the go3ernment in Dashington has lost man& regional allies,

Impact LA Insta!ility ,AC

9etaining *2(2 lea'ers ip in Latin American is "ital to sta!ility (a!atini/ 14 (Christo"her, Editor in Chief of 2mericas guarterl& and !enior Cirector of Polic& at the 2mericas !ociet& and the Council of the 2mericas, LDI44 42%IN 2MERIC2 MI!! 9,!, @EGEM>NG6,M 'ournal of International 2ffairs, :olume ++, Issue ), !"ring )*0E, "g, 0-a:I, ProBuest, %ashma1 From the co3er of the !e"tember )*0* issue of %he Economist to the "ages of Foreign 2ffairs Fournalists and obser3ers are "roclaiming the decline of 9,!, "o#er in 4atin 2merica, 0 Dhile some "o"ulist leaders, such as former President
@ugo Cha3e= of :ene=uela, ma& celebrate #hat the& call the end of 9,!, dominance (and a number of 9,!, academics as #ell1, other more sober go3ernments such as 7ra=il and Chile are alread& calling for a rebalancing of "o#er in the #estern hemis"here, %he

standard frame#or5 for describing and understanding 9,!,-4atin 2merican relations these "ast decades has been one #here the 9nited !tates stands as the "rimar& hegemonic "o#er - the $colossus of the north,$) !ince the Monroe Coctrine, that "o#er has sha"ed a 9,!, "olic& that has allo#ed it to inter3ene either o3ertl& or co3ertl& at #ill to im"ose its national interests N su""ort "olic& "references and alliesN and in some cases, e3en o3erturn go3ernments, often #ith blood& conseBuences, 7ut #hile 4atin 2merica has long chafed o3er 9,!,
militar&, economic, and "olitical o3er#helming "redominance, is it "ossible that, if 9,!, "o#er south of its border has indeed #aned, 4atin 2merica #ill actuall& miss the reduced 9,!, "resence and e3en 9,!, hegemon&6 %he united !tates8 reduced abilit& to unilaterall& get #hat it #ants in the hemis"here is alread& sha"ing 4atin 2merican countries8 calculations of domestic and foreign "olicies and the formation of multilateral alliances, %he last ten &ears ha3e #itnessed the emergence of regional and multilateral "o#ers see5ing to assert regional di"lomatic "o#er, if not to s"ecificall& reduce the role of the 9nited !tates in intra-regional di"lomac&, %he most ob3ious and "ointed e/am"le is the 7oli3arian 2lliance for the Peo"les of our 2mericas (24721 formed b& former President of :ene=uela @ugo Cha3e=, #hich includes 7oli3ia, Cuba, Ecuador, Nicaragua, and :ene=uela among others in a bloc 3o#ed to o""ose a no#-defunct "lan to establish a hemis"here-#ide free-trade agreement, 2t the same time, as its econom& rebounded Buic5l& and strongl& from the )**( global financial crisis until )*0), 7ra=il has sought a greater regional and e3en global role, e/erting its ne#-found di"lomatic and economic muscle, often as an alternati3e to 9,!, influence in matters as di3erse as the threat of "olitical u"hea3al in :ene=uela to the 9N dri3e to sanction Iran for its nuclear ambitions,E Get, t ere may li5el& !e

a 'o#n si'e to t e retrenc ment of *2(2 lea'ers ip and "rerogati3e in t e region2 Dhile there
are multi"le tragic e/am"les of 9,!, inter3ention and a long histor& of abuse b& 9,!, "o#er that ha3e th#arted the "olitical and economic de3elo"ment of countries such as Guatemala or @aiti, 9,!, leadershi" and "o#er ha3e also brought

benefits, For e/am"le, go3ernments ha3e long relied on 9,!, leadershi" to cham"ion s"ecific causes, at times $"assing the buc5$
to ha3e 9,!, su""ort ser3e as a foil for a general "rinci"le or "olic& that the& su""ort but do not #ant to lead "ublicl&, !imilarl&,

recent cases of 9,!, technical assistance and coo"eration hel"ed focus national attention and energ& on addressing 3iolence and crime in countries li5e Colombia and Me/ico, Moreo3er, countries in the region ha3e long benefited from the securit& "ro3ided b& being in the 9,!, di"lomatic and militar& s"here of influence, %his securit& has hel"ed states struggling #ith 3iolence and instabilit& and contributed to intra-regional "eace, Dill a shift in 9,!, "o#er #ea5en these hemis"heric "ublic
goods6

+ at sol"es glo!al #arfare 9oc lin/ 0E Z'ames Francis, Professor of Political !cience at >5anagan 9, College, Discovering the Americas: The Evolution of Canadian Foreign Policy Towards Latin America , 0E*-0E0, Da5e Earl& 7ird FileR
Dhile there #ere economic moti3ations for Canadian "olic& in Central 2merica, securit& considerations #ere "erha"s more im"ortant, Canada "ossessed an interest in "romoting stabilit& in the face of a "otential decline of 9,!, hegemon& in the 2mericas, Perce"tions of declining 9,!, influence in the region W #hich had some credibilit& in 0?(?-0?X. due to the #ildl& ineBuitable di3isions of #ealth in some 9,!, client states in 4atin 2merica, in addition to "olitical re"ression, underde3elo"ment, mounting e/ternal debt, anti-2merican sentiment "roduced b& decades of subFugation to 9,!, strategic and economic interests, and so on W #ere lin5ed to the "ros"ect of e/"losi3e e3ents occurring in the hemis"here, @ence, the Central 2merican imbroglio #as 3ie#ed as a fuse #hich could ignite a catacl&smic "rocess throughout the region, 2nal&sts at the time #orried that in a #orstcase scenario, instabilit& created b& a regional #ar , beginning in Central 2merica and s"reading else#here in

4atin 2merica, might "reoccu"& Dashington to the e/tent that the 9nited !tates #ould be unable to "erform adeBuatel& its im"ortant hegemonic role in the international arena W a concern e/"ressed b& the director of research for Canadas

!tanding Committee Re"ort on Central 2merica, It #as feared that s&c

a pre'icament co&l' generate increase' global instability an' "erha"s e3en a hegemonic war, %his is one of the moti3ations #hich
led Canada to become in3ol3ed in efforts at regional conflict resolution, such as Contadora, as #ill be discussed in the ne/t cha"ter,

Impact LA Insta!ility 1A9

*( eg promotes sta!ility in Latin America t ro&g free tra'e an' 'emocracy (anc e6 an' ( olar 1,, Peter !anche=(PhC1 is a Professor P Graduate Program Cirector
(GPC1 ` 4o&ola 9ni3ersit& in Chicago, Megan !holar is a PhC ` 4o&ola 9ni3ersit& in Chicago, (LPo#er and Princi"leJ 2 Ne# 9! Polic& for 4atin 2mericaMN International 'ournal of @umanities and !ocial !cience :ol, ) No, )EN Cecember )*0)N htt"J--###,iFhssnet,com-Fournals-:olQ)QNoQ)EQCecemberQ)*0)-E,"df, FF1
9sing Lhegemon&M more broadl&, scholars #ho focus on securit& ha3e "ointed out that hegemonic

"o#ers also S "romote stabilit& and coo"eration (!ee Gil"in, 0?(IN Krasner, 0?(+N Krasner, 0??I1, @egemonic stabilit& theor& S suggests that a hegemonic "o#er #ill "ro3ide both "eace and "ros"erit& to the s&stem at large, meaning that the S subordinate states #ill enFo& these collecti3e goods b& coo"erating #ith the hegemon (!ee Krasner and Debb, S 0?X?1, Dhen loo5ing at 4atin 2merica, #e see a region that since "olitical inde"endence has suffered almost no S inter-state conflict, %his sustained regional "eace can be attributed to the "resence of a 9! "re"onderance of S "o#er, Peace of course is deemed a "recondition for "ros"erit&, so in addition to securit&, hegemon& is deemed to S be more conduci3e to "ros"erit& than is an anarchical, conflict-"rone, or non-liberal international s&stem, De can S argue then that #ea5 states #ill come to acce"t the leadershi" of a
hegemonic "o#er onl& as long as that hegemon S offers im"ortant collecti3e goods, mainl& "ros"erit& and "eace, If not, as balance of "o#er theorists suggest, S states #ill see5 to challenge, or balance, the #ould-be hegemon at the first o""ortunit&, %hus, #hile a S "re"onderance of "o#er is "roduced and maintained "rinci"all& b& forceHreal"oliti5H hegemon& constitutes a S uniBue

"o#er arrangement that reBuires more than real"oliti5 from the hegemonic "o#er, S 2s a freemar5et, democratic hegemon, the 9nited !tates through its ideological influence e/"ects subordinate S states in 4atin 2merica to embrace democratic "rinci"les and institutions, as #ell as free-mar5et "olicies, S ConseBuentl&, democrac& and self-

determination, in addition to "eace and "ros"erit&, are also 3alues that S subordinate states e/"ect as deri3ati3es of 2merican hegemon&, 2fter the Great Ce"ression, the countries of 4atin S 2merica began to
embrace economic "olicies that "laced the state at the economic helm, %hese statist economic S "olicies, "rinci"all& im"ort substitution industriali=ation, #ere deemed b& man& nationalist leaders as the best S route to#ard national de3elo"ment, @o#e3er, since the dominance of the Dashington Consensus in the 0?X*s , S #hich "romoted neoliberal "olicies, the

countries of 4atin 2merica ha3e esche#ed statism and increasingl& S embraced free trade, "ri3ati=ation, and laisse= faire economics in genera l, Perha"s the most salient e/am"le is S President Fernando EnriBue Cardoso of 7ra=il, Cardoso #as a leading de"endenc& theorist #ho argued that global S ca"italism 5ee"s "oor countries from de3elo"ingN ho#e3er, #hen he became "resident of 7ra=il in 0??I, Cardoso S "romoted neoliberal economic "olicies,

Impact Dil Depen'ence Goo' ,AC

Fail&re to strengt *2(2 infl&ence in Latin America sacrifices oil tra'e <ega/ : ('uan, ',C, candidate at the 9ni3ersit& of Minnesota 4a# !chool, M,7,2 at the 9ni3ersit& of Florida, LChina8s Economic and Political Clout Gro#s in 4atin 2merica at the E/"ense of 9,!, Interests,M 0. Minn, ', Global %rade E((, !ummer )**I, le/is, %ashma1
C, 4atin 2merica and 9,!, Interests 0, 9,!, >il Interests Roger Noriega, 2ssistant !ecretar& of !tate for Destern @emis"here 2ffairs, has stated that President 7ush8s "olic& on 4atin 2merica $is based on "romoting democrac& through "rograms aimed at curbing corru"tion and im"ro3ing education, "romoting trade, and fighting drug traffic5ing,$ 0*E 4atin 2merica is also an

essential source of oil for the 9nited !tates, 0*. 2s China gains more clout in 4atin 2merica, the 9nited !tates ma& obtain less coo"eration from 4atin 2merican countries #ith regard to securing oil, "romoting human rights, e/"anding antinarcotics "rograms, fighting terrorism, assuring 9,!, national securit&, "romoting democrac& and higher en3ironmental standards, and reaching long-term trade agreements, 0*I It is im"erati3e for the 9nited !tates to secure future sources of oil from 4atin 2merica, %#ent& "ercent of 9,!, energ& originates in the 2ndean countries, #hich com"rise Colombia, 7oli3ia, Peru, Ecuador, and :ene=uela, 0*+ Fourteen of
that t#ent& "ercent originates in :ene=uela, 0*( 9nrest in :ene=uela and other oil-"roducing countries in 4atin 2merica as #ell as rising anti-9,!, sentiment throughout the region may =eopar'i6e the *nited (tates8s access to

Latin American oil2 0*X %he election ZbE?)R of leftist leaders to "ositions of "o#er and a mo3ement throughout 4atin
2merica to nationali=e the oil industr& further add to this "otential decrease in 9,!, access to 4atin 2merican oil, 0*?

9ece'ing oil 'epen'ence ca&ses glo!al collapse an' creates m&ltiple scenarios for glo!al #arfare La#rence/ 8 (2ndre# 4a#rence, !tanford, International Relations, L^%he Most Incon3enient %ruthJ %he Necessit& of Good Go3ernance in >il-E/"orters,M !tanford 'ournal of International Relations, Fall-Dinter )**X, htt"J--###,stanford,edu-grou"-sFir-"df->ilQGo3ernanceQRE24Qfinal,"df1 Get because Loil #ealth is robustl& associated #ith more durable regimesM ? that sometimes remain in "o#er for decades at a time, oil-de"endent countries ma& lac5 a 3iable "olitical alternati3e to the status Buo should
the go3ernment colla"se, In fact, e3en if the go3ernment e/ercises an autocratic, un"o"ular gri" on "o#er, o""osition mo3ements remain largel& untested and could "ro3e eBuall& ine"t, For e/am"le, as the ram"ant 3iolence in the immediate aftermath of "ost!addam @ussein IraB demonstrated, an& abru"t "olitical change in an oil-e/"orter can lead to a "o#er

3acuum and the dangerous re3itali=ation of embedded social conflicts (i,e, sectarian 3iolence1, Furthermore, #ith a militar& budget near [I** billion and a militar& stretched thin b& simultaneous #ars, the 9nited !tates cannot afford to shoc5 the international oil regime b& ceasing its e/"enditures on oil #ithout "reci"itating conflict W conflicts that #ould li5el& reBuire foreign (most "robabl& 2merican1 militar& inter3ention, In addition, because e/"enditures on militar& and securit& forces as a "ercentage of re3enues are greater in oil-e/"orting countries than those of their im"orting counter"arts, 0* a trauma to the international oil s&stem ma& allo# for the "roliferation of hea3il&-armed factions in other#ise la#less en3ironments, Es"eciall& #ith "o"ulations historicall& "lagued b& #ides"read "o3ert&, the a3ailabilit& of #ea"ons in oil-e/"orting countries could "otentiall& create insurgencies com"osed of "oor citi=ens see5ing to address grie3ances against the "ros"erous "olitical elites, %he Niger Celta, for e/am"le, currentl& contains hea3il&-armed, anti-go3ernment factions aggrie3ed b& their e/clusion from "etroleum re3enues, 00 2s such, should the 9nited !tates hastil& abandon the current oil regime and #ithdra# its militar& and "olitical su""ort from the oil e/"ort-de"endent Nigerian go3ernment, the long-o""ressed &et oil-rich communities in the Celta region ma& sei=e u"on the o""ortunit& to e/act re3enge for historical inFustices, Nigeria is not the onl& countr& susce"tible to conflict as oil re3enues
diminish, 'ust as the oil mar5et de3elo"ed onto an international scale, so too did the resource curse s&m"toms that so often accom"an& oil e/"orters "roliferate from countr& to countr&, Russia, for instance, needs high oil "rices to 5ee"

its

econom& afloat, as nearl& .* "ercent of e/"ort re3enue deri3es from oil and gas, 0) !audi 2rabia W a countr& that "roduced fifteen of the nineteen hiFac5ers in the ?-00 terrorist attac5s W de"ends on oil re3enues for .. "ercent of its GCP, 0E Irans oil rents allo# the go3ernment to subsidi=e food and gas at a rate that Laccounted for 0) "ercentM of the nations GCP, 0. 7ecause oil #ealth sustains the economies of so man& oil-"roducing countries, the colla"se of oil "rices that #ould surel& accom"an& the 9! #ithdra#al from the international oil regime

could ha3e "rofound and "otentiall& de3astating effects in these countries and, b& e/tension, throughout the
#orld,

Impact N&clear )o#er Goo' ,AC

*(-Latin America relations are .ey to n&clear po#er implementation Bars efs.y et al ?8, Charlene 7arshefs5&, 'ames %, @ill, !hannon K, >Neil, 'ulia E, !#eig, %as5 Force Chairs
(L9,!,-4atin 2mericaS RelationsJS 2 Ne# Cirection for aS Ne# Realit&S Re"ort of anS Inde"endent %as5 ForceM, Council on Foreign Relations, ###,cfr,org-content-"ublications-attachments-4atin2mericaQ%F,"df, FF1

4atin 2merica has also seen resurgent interest in nuclear "o#er, 2S little o3er fort& &ears ago, there a""eared to be a genuine ris5 of aS nuclear arms race in the regionHa trend that #as short-circuited b&S the establishment of a Nuclear Dea"ons Free ]one b& the 0?+( %reat&S of %latelolco, !ince then, 2rgentina, 7ra=il, and Me/ico ha3e builtS se3en nuclear "o#er "lants, although onl& 2rgentina has established aS strong technical ca"acit& in this areaHa ca"acit& that recentl& has been ta""ed b& :ene=uela to e/"lore the "ossible de3elo"ment of a nuclear S energ& "rogram of its o#n, %oda& there is a com"elling argument forS the e/"ansion of nuclear energ&, #hich "ro3ides base "o#er #ith =eroS greenhouse gas emissions, as 7ra=ils construction of ne# reactors andS use of nuclear-"o#ered submarines attest, @o#e3er, achie3ing
suchS e/"ansion #ill reBuire that 4atin 2merica address the com"le/ challengesS of managing and dis"osing of uranium and nuclear #aste andS meeting international standards (es"eciall& gi3en concerns o3erCham3e=sS desire for nuclear-enrichment ca"abilit& and a relationshi" #ith Iran1, S %he %as5 Force finds that although biofuels #ill not dis"lace oil and gas,S the& can hel" di3ersif& energ& choices,

lo#er the energ& intensit& of nationalS economies, decrease greenhouse gas emissions, and foster greater energ& securit&S for the entire hemis"here, Dhile being mindful of the need to guarantee S food securit&, di3ersif&ing energ& sources could be an im"ortant dri3erS of economic de3elo"ment in 4atin 2merica as the region becomes anS im"ortant technolog&, "roduction, and research hub in the long-term S de3elo"ment of a global biofuels mar5et, E/"anding nuclear "o#erS #ould further efforts at energ& di3ersification, Coo"eration on suchS issues "ro3ides a uniBue o""ortunit& for the 9nited !tates to reengageS 4atin 2merica "roacti3el&, #ith shared en3ironmental and energ& concernsS dee"ening di"lomatic relationshi"s,I.

N&clear po#er .ey to sol"ing glo!al #arming;ne# tec nologies ma.e fission safer an' more efficient Williams 14/ 2rthur Dilliams is a condensed-matter theorist, retired from I7M8s %homas ',
Datson Research Center after E* &ears there, Datson is located near the Indian Point nuclear"o#er facilit&, 4i3ing and #or5ing near Indian Point continues to moti3ate him to learn about the issues surrounding nuclear "o#er, @e is no# a registered and "racticing "atent agent, (*.-*X-0E, LNuclear "o#erJ %he onl& a3ailable solution to global #armingMN htt"J--###,"h&sicstoda&,org-dail&Qedition-"ointsQofQ3ie#-nuclearQ"o#erQtheQonl&Qa3ailab leQsolutionQtoQglobalQ#armingkbio, FF1

Global #arming, energ& inde"endence, #ater scarcit& and third-#orld economic gro#th are all amenable to a common, safe, clean, cost-com"etiti3e and field-tested nuclear solution, Dh& isnt this solution uni3ersall&
embraced and im"lemented6S I suggest t#o reasons, First, #e humans res"ond much more strongl& to dramatic e3ents, li5e earthBua5es, 3iolent #eather and terrorist acts, than #e do to stead&-state threats, such as auto accidents, medical errors and coal "articles, 2t a cost of [. trillion, #e started t#o #ars in res"onse to the terrorist attac5s of ?-00 that 5illed )??+, %he death tolls in the 9! from auto accidents (E****1, medical errors (..***W)*****1, and coal dust (0E***1 are not onl& higher, but also "erennial, %he gradual character of carbon dio/ide emissions and global #arming is ele3ating our

Lboiling frogM tendencies to an entirel& ne# scale of danger, 2lthough the "roblem ma& not e/cite us, our "ot is #arming so Buic5l& that #e must lea" to sur3i3e, 2 measure of the magnitude and urgenc& of this

challenge can be found in 7ill Gates summar& of his #onderful %EC lecture on this to"icJ Ces"ite the time, effort and mone& he has de3oted to ne# 3accines and seeds, if he could be granted a single #ish for the coming decades, it #ould be for a "ractical, C>)-free energ& source, %hat e/"licit "rioriti=ation reflects his a#areness of an es"eciall& unfortunate feature of #arming, that its burden falls most hea3il& on the "oliticall& 3oiceless "oor, and less hea3il& on those #ith the means to address the challenge, %he dis"arit& adds to our inertia,S %he second reason lies in dee"l& entrenched m&ths (#hich for m& "ur"oses I shall define as untruths breeding com"lacenc&1, rooted in unrealisticall& high e/"ectations for rene#able energ& and unrealisticall& negati3e e/"ectations for nuclear "o#er, Criticism of nuclear "o#er focuses on histor& and ignores dramatic ad3ances in fission

technolog&, %his incom"lete "icture gi3es rise to m&ths that conflict directl& #ith the assertions of Gates and of 'ohn

Parmentola, the 9! arm&8s director of research and laborator& managementJ that nuclear fission is the onl& L"racticalM solution in

3ie#,S %he remainder of this essa& comments on Gates criteria for L"racticalit&,M and e/amines the factors of a3ailabilit&, reliabilit&, cost, scale, safet&, "roliferation and #aste, %he good ne#s is that ne# fission tec nologies ma.e

fission clean/ safe/ competiti"ely ine@pensi"e/ an' resistant to terrorism , Moreo3er, the& sol3e the nuclear-#aste challenge, >ne technolog& claims to reduce the high-le3el #aste out"ut of a t&"ical "o#er "lant from )* tons "er &ear to a fe# 5ilograms, 2merican startu"s are "ursuing
commerciali=ation, but much of the action is in other countries, notabl& China and India, S Gates and Parmentola also em"hasi=e the urgenc& for halting C>) emissions, In m& 3ie#, the follo#ing si/ #ides"read and "aral&=ing m&ths must be addressed, S M&th k0J Dind and solar can do itS Rene#able sources, li5e #ind, solar, and tide, emit no C>), and thats undeniabl& good, Dhile the discussion of rene#ables often focuses on cost, it is "o#er densit& and intermittenc& that cons"ire #ith cost to "re3ent these technologies from "ro3iding adeBuate solutions, S 2s Gates "uts it, technologies for rene#able energ& re"resent energ& farming,

7ecause the intrinsic "o#er densit& of rene#able sources is orders of magnitude lo#er than that of h&drocarbons and nuclear "rocesses, large tracts of land are reBuired to rea" e3en modest Buantities of "o#er,S E3en if large tracts of land, such as those in the !ahara or the 2merican !outh#est, are em"lo&ed, the electricit& "roduced is inherentl& intermittent, and must be stored and trans"orted , For e/am"le,

Gates estimates that all the #orlds e/isting batteries can store onl& about 0* minutes of electricit& consum"tion, 2lso, because land is not a3ailable near "o"ulation centers, trans"ort such as high-tension to#ers must be "ro3ided, S Dhile the relati3e cost of rene#able sources is im"ro3ing, cost still re"resents a disad3antage of se3eral hundred "ercent that has been com"ensated b& go3ernment subsidies, !ubsidies might continue, but as @argra3es em"hasi=es in his e/tensi3el& researched boo5, %horiumJ Energ& Chea"er than Coal, the "ros"ects for eliminating C>) emissions are greatl& im"ro3ed if the alternati3e "o#er source is chea"er than h&drocarbons, %he high energ& densit& and a3ailabilit& of coal ma5e it misleadingl& attracti3e, @argra3es concludes that at least one of the ne/t-generation breed-and-burn fission technologies can "roduce electricit& for about [*,*E-5Dh, ma5ing it costcom"etiti3e, e3en #ith coal, %he intrinsic safet& and relati3e sim"licit& of the coming generation of

breed-and-burn fission reactors ma5es them significantl& less e/"ensi3e than those of the "resent generation,S M&th k)J Nuclear is unsafeS %here are t#o safet& issues in the conte/t of nuclear "o#erJ meltdo#n and terrorism, 7oth are essentiall& eliminate' !y ne@t-generation fission tec nologies,S Concerns raised b& incidents at %hree Mile Island and Chernob&l #ere seriousl& aggra3ated b& recent e3ents at Fu5ushima, !uch dangers are not intrinsic to fission, but stem from militar& "riorities fa3oring fuel rods com"rised of metal-clad ceramics, Ceramics conduct heat "oorl&, and acti3e cooling ("o#ered e/ternall&1 is reBuired to "re3ent o3erheating, melting and ru"ture of the cladding, Molten-salt reactors are Bualitati3el& different, First, the e/"loiting the molten state leads to an inherentl& safe reactor design, since no additional melting is "ossible, More s"ecificall&, the far su"erior thermal conducti3it& of molten salt eliminates the need for acti3e cooling, 2t an& time and #ithout an& e/ternal "o#er, the reactor can be drained, b& gra3it&, into a subterranean 3essel in #hich "assi3e cooling suffices , !uch reactors are termed L#al5-a#a&M safe, 2 molten-salt reactor ran successfull& and #ithout incident at >a5 Ridge National
4aborator& for four &ears,S @igh-le3el #astes "roduced b& fission are una3oidable, but the& are onl& a tin& fraction of #hat #e call nuclear #aste, %he com"lete burning of nuclear fuel in molten-salt reactors "ro3ides all the benefits

of re"rocessing, #hich has "ermitted France, for e/am"le, to "roduce about X*_ of its electricit& from fission for decades, #ithout theft of fissile material b& terrorists, although Green"eace did bloc5 a
"lutonium shi"ment, 7ecause ne/t-generation reactors integrate breeding and burning into a single "rocess, fissile material does not e/ist outside the reactor, #here it is both hot and diluted, thereb& reducing the ris5 of theft significantl& belo# e3en that of re"rocessing,S M&th kEJ Nuclear #aste remains an unsol3ed "roblem S 2s the term Lbreed-and-burnM suggests, ne/t-generation fission technologies are related to and "ro3ide the benefits of re"rocessing, 2n inde"endent benefit of molten-salt

technologies is that the fissile material can remain in the reactor until it is com"letel& consumed, thereb& "roducing dramaticall& less #aste, In toda&s solid-fuel reactors the fuel is clad in metals that can tolerate
onl& a limited amount of neutron bombardment, necessitating remo3al of the fuel long before it is full& consumed, %his distinction is the basis of the claim b& the MI%-based startu", %ransatomic Po#er, that #aste "roduction can be reduced from tons to 5ilograms, increasing b& a factor of E* the energ& obtained from a gi3en Buantit& of fuel, Refueling freBuenc& is also reduced in

molten-salt reactors b& the continuous remo3al of neutron-absorbing /enon, #hose accumulation in solid-fuel reactors also reduces the time that fuel can remain in the reactor, S 2
bonus, but not a sur"rise, gi3en the connection bet#een breed-and-burn reactors and re"rocessing, is that some ne# reactors can consume e/isting nuclear #asteHboth de"leted and s"ent fuel, In this #a&, ne/t-generation fission can sol3e the

#aste "roblem created b& "resent-generation fission, S M&th k.J Fission ma& "ro3ide electricit&, but it neither fuels trans"ortation nor "ro3ides clean #aterS Fission "roduces chea" heat, #hich is broadl& useful , In the "resent conte/t, the cost-effecti3e heat "roduced b& fission is s&mbiotic #ith t#o highl& de3elo"ed technologies that address t#o of our most critical challenges, C>)-free trans"ortation and sea#ater desalination, S %rans"ortation
consumes a large fraction of the energ& budget, Its fractional share is a""roaching that of industr&, #hich is about t#ice that of both residential and commercial energ& consum"tion, !ince fission reactors are unli5el& to be "laced in cars and truc5s, in #hat sense can fission contribute to C>)-free trans"ortation6 %he ans#er is the s&nthesis of ammonia, N@E s&nthesis is among the most "romising

e/"loitations of heat from fission, N@E can be 3ie#ed as an es"eciall& effecti3e medium for h&drogen storage and deli3er&, %he infrastructure for N@E "roduction and distribution is alread& #ides"read, N@E has about half the energ& content b& #eight of gasoline, but its much lo#er cost gi3es it a "rice-"erformance ad3antage, Most im"ortantl&, N@E burns to form air and #aterJ S .N@EYE>)O)N)Y+@)>S Fission also offers a choice bet#een electricall& "o#ered re3erse osmosis and traditional distillation as means to "roduce "otable #ater, Cistillation can use fission-"roduced heat directl&, #hereas re3erse osmosis is 3er& energ& demanding, and can use fission-"roduced electricit&, Either #a&, the 3alue of "otable #ater is rising ra"idl&, and #ill benefit directl& from chea" clean "o#er,S M&th kIJ Nuclear installations are large, e/"ensi3e and "roblematic to site S %he greater efficienc&

of molten-salt reactors ma5es them smaller for a gi3en ca"acit&, More im"ortantl&, the& o"erate at

atmos"heric "ressure, #hich eliminates both the threat of e/"losion and the need for a large containment structure, the 3isual signature of toda&s fission "lants, In combination #ith the "er3asi3e relati3e sim"licit& of molten-fuel reactors, elimination of the containment structure renders molten-salt facilities relati3el& small and ine/"ensi3e, !uch reactors also lend themsel3es to factor& manufacture, further reducing their cost, %he original molten-fuel reactor #as intended to "o#er air"lanes, In the "resent conte/t,

the efficienc&, reduced si=e, and guaranteed safet& of ne/t-generation fission "lants combine to reduce the NIM7G (not in m& bac5&ard1 resistance to their siting,S M&th k+J Nuclear reBuires length& de3elo"ment (ne# game changer needed1S Driting in the Februar& )*0E issue of Ph&sics %oda&, 'ohn Parmentola called for the in3ention of a
game-changing fission technolog&, Corres"ondingl&, Gates calls for hundreds of startu"s "ursuing different 3ariations on the common theme, Gates is in3ol3ed #ith one such com"an&, %erraPo#er, #hich #ill commerciali=e an inno3ati3e solid-fuel breedand-burn technolog&,S %he call for startu"s and game changers re3eals the great iron& of this conte/tJ

that arguabl& the most "romising of the breed-and-burn technologies is not at all ne# , 2s mentioned
abo3e, the molten-salt thorium reactor #as de3elo"ed at >a5 Ridge National 4ab in the 0?+*s, #here it ran successfull& for four &ears,S 2 measure of the significance of the >a5 Ridge effort is the con3iction and enthusiasm of the >a5 Ridge lab director, 2l3in Deinberg, @is =eal for the intrinsic safet& and other 3irtues of the molten-salt reactor, no# called 4F%R (lithium-fluoride thorium reactor1, #as not "oliticall& #elcome, and led to his firing b& President Ni/on in 0?(E, Deinberg de3oted the rest of his life to the "romotion of 4F%RN the Deinberg Foundation continues his mission, S 2 contem"orar& "ro"onent of 4F%R, Kir5 !orensen, leads the startu" Flibe, #hich is focused on 4F%R commerciali=ation, %he MI%-based startu" %ransatomic Po#er recentl& #on an 2RP2-E com"etition as "art of its efforts to commerciali=e a 4F%R-related technolog& that #ill burn Ls"entM fuel or uranium, at least initiall&, S Dhere the action isS 2s Ca3id Kramer re"orted in the No3ember )*0) issue of Ph&sics %oda&, enthusiasm for nuclear "o#er has #aned in the 9!, %he Fu5ushima e3ents ha3e led to similar declines in 'a"an and German&, Fortunatel& for the #orld, others are mo3ing for#ardN consider fission facilities in ChinaJ S 0. o"erationalS )( under constructionS I0 "lannedS 0)* "ro"osedS )0) totalS %he central assertion here echoes that of both Gates and ParmentolaJ n&clear fission is t e only .no#n

tec nology capa!le of !ringing CD, emissions &n'er control , M& ho"e is that greater a#areness
of the benefits "romised b& coming fission technologies #ill debun5 the m&ths currentl& stalling "ublic and "ri3ate in3estment, and re3erse the unfortunate trend in the 9!, 'a"an and German&,

9&na#ay #arming ca&ses e@tinction Dei!el >, Professor of IR ` National Dar College (%err& 4,, )**(l LForeign 2ffairs !trateg&J
4ogic for 2merican !tatecraftM, ConclusionJ 2merican Foreign 2ffairs !trateg& %oda&1
Finall&, there is one maFor e/istential threat to 2merican securit& (as #ell as "ros"erit&1 of a non3iolent nature, #hich, though far in the future, demands urgent action, It is the threat of global #arming to the stabilit& of the climate u"on

#hich all earthl& life de"ends, !cientists #orld#ide ha3e been obser3ing the gathering of this threat for three decades

no#, and #hat #as once a mere "ossibilit& has "assed through "robabilit& to near certaint&, Indeed not one of more than ?** articles on climate change "ublished in refereed scientific Fournals from 0??E to )**E doubted that anthro"ogenic #arming

is occurring, LIn legitimate scientific circles,M #rites Eli=abeth Kolbert, Lit is 3irtuall& im"ossible to find e3idence of disagreement o3er the fundamentals of global #arming,M E3idence from a 3ast international scientific monitoring effort

accumulates almost #ee5l&, as this sam"le of ne#s"a"er re"orts sho#sJ an international "anel "redicts Lbrutal droughts, floods and 3iolent storms across the "lanet o3er the ne/t centur&MN climate change could Lliterall& alter ocean currents, #i"e a#a& huge "ortions of 2l"ine !no#ca"s and aid the s"read of cholera and malariaMN Lglaciers in the 2ntarctic and in Greenland are melting much faster than e/"ected, andc#orld#ide, "lants are blooming se3eral da&s earlier than a decade agoMN Lrising sea tem"eratures ha3e been accom"anied b& a significant global increase in the most destructi3e hurricanesMN LN2!2 scientists ha3e concluded from direct tem"erature measurements that )**I #as the hottest &ear on record, #ith 0??X a close secondMN L Earths #arming climate

is estimated to contribute to more than 0I*,*** deaths and I million illnesses each &ear M as disease
s"readsN L#ides"read bleaching from %e/as to %rinidadc5illed broad s#aths of coralsM due to a )-degree rise in sea tem"eratures, L%he #orld is slo#l& disintegrating,M concluded Inuit hunter Noah MetuB, #ho li3es E* miles from the 2rctic Circle, L%he& call it climate changecbut #e Fust call it brea5ing u",M From the founding of the first cities some +,*** &ears ago until the beginning of the industrial re3olution, carbon dio/ide le3els in the atmos"here remained relati3el& constant at about )X* "arts "er million (""m1, 2t "resent the& are accelerating to#ard .** ""m, and b& )*I* the& #ill reach I** ""m, about double "re-industrial le3els, 9nfortunatel&, atmos"heric C>) lasts about a centur&, so there is no #a& immediatel& to reduce le3els, onl& to slo# their increase, #e are thus in for significant global #armingN the onl& debate is ho# much and ho# serous the effects #ill be, 2s the ne#s"a"er stories Buoted abo3e sho#, #e are alread& e/"eriencing the effects of 0-) degree #arming in more

3iolent storms, s"read of disease, mass die offs of "lants and animals, s"ecies e/tinction , and

threatened inundation of lo#-l&ing countries li5e the Pacific nation of Kiribati and the Netherlands at a #arming of I degrees or less the Greenland and Dest 2ntarctic ice sheets could disintegrate, leading to a sea le3el of rise of )* feet that #ould co3er North Carolinas outer ban5s, s#am" the southern third of Florida, and inundate Manhattan u" to the middle of Green#ich :illage,

2nother catastro"hic effect #ould be the colla"se of the 2tlantic thermohaline circulation that 5ee"s the #inter #eather in Euro"e far #armer than its latitude #ould other#ise allo#, Economist Dilliam Cline once estimated the damage to the 9nited !tates alone from moderate le3els of #arming at 0-+ "ercent of GCP annuall& N se3ere #arming could cost 0E-)+ "ercent of GCP, 7ut the most frightening scenario is runa#a& greenhouse #arming, based on "ositi3e feedbac5 from the buildu" of #ater

3a"or in the atmos"here that is both caused b& and causes hotter surface tem"eratures, Past ice age transitions, associated #ith onl& I-0* degree changes in a3erage global tem"eratures, too5 "lace in Fust decades, e3en though no one #as then "ouring e3erincreasing amounts of carbon into the atmos"here, Faced #ith this s"ecter, the best one can conclude is that Lhuman5inds continuing enhancement of the natural greenhouse effect is a5in to "la&ing Russian roulette #ith the earths climate and humanit&s life su""ort s&stem, 2t #orst, sa&s "h&sics "rofessor Mart& @offert of Ne# Gor5 9ni3ersit&, L#ere Fust going to burn e3er&thing u"N #ere going to heat the atmos"here to the tem"erature it #as in the Cretaceous #hen there #ere crocodiles at the "oles, and then e3er&thing #ill colla"se,M Curing the Cold Dar, astronomer Carl !agan "o"ulari=ed a theor& of nuclear #inter to describe ho# a thermonuclear #ar bet#een the 9ntied !tates and the !o3iet 9nion #ould not onl& destro& both countries but "ossibl& end life on this "lanet, Global #arming is the "ost-Cold Dar eras eBui3alent of nuclear #inter at least as

serious and considerabl& better su""orted scientificall& , >3er the long run it "uts dangers form terrorism and traditional militar& challenges to shame, It is a threat not onl& to the securit& and "ros"erit& to the 9nited !tates, but "otentiall& to the continued e@istence of life on t is planet2

Impact +errorism ,AC

*( infl&ence stops t e contin&e' 'isconnect an' presence sp&rs Latin American policies to sol"e t e War on +error Emerson/ 1? W PhC from the 2N9 !chool of !ocial !ciences, studied Communication Cesign in Melbourne, he has studied in Me/ico and Chile, and is currentl& associated #ith the 2ustralian National Centre for 4atin 2merican !tudies (2NC42!1, at the 2N9 (Gu&, LRadical Neglect6 %he LDar on %errorM and 4atin 2merica,M 42%IN 2MERIC2N P>4I%IC! 2NC !>CIE%G, :olume I), Issue 0, "ages EEW+), !"ring )*0*, March Xth, )*0*, '!%>R1--@24 2 Priori !hortcomings 2t first glance, the argument that t e AWar on +errorB e@plains the 'iplomatic 'isconnect a""ears "ersuasi3e, :ie#ed through a geostrategic lens, 9,!, in3ol3ement in IraB and 2fghanistan, in addition to claims of hegemonic o3erreach, enables 4atin 2merica to challenge its subordination in interamerican relations, 9,!, "reoccu"ation be&ond the hemis"here not onl& a""ears to offer 4atin 2merica the fle/ibilit& to generate "olic& o"tions according to its o#n interests, but also reduces the fear of "ossible retribution should those interests contradict 9,!, obFecti3es, %hese inter"retations of change are based on an understanding of
autonom& as LnoninterferenceMN that is, an understanding of interamerican relations that em"hasi=es the im"ortance of fa3orable geo"olitical factors largel& be&ond 4atin 2mericas control, %he hemis"heric disconnect has occurred due to 9,!,

#ithdra#al from the region and not through action in 4atin 2merica itself , %he logical e/tension of this 3ie# is that the abilit& of 4atin 2merican states to act inde"endentl& e/"ands and contracts irres"ecti3e of their action, 2 change in hemis"heric relations, it is argued, de"ends on the 9nited !tates and its strategic interest at an& gi3en time, %he "rinci"al #ea5ness of defining change according to a conFuncture of e/ternal factors is that it fails to recogni=e 4atin 2merican states and their ca"acit& to influence e/ternal factors, %o o3ercome this #ea5ness, it is necessar& to mo3e be&ond a restricti3e 3ie# of autonom& as noninterference to the aforementioned 3ie# that is mindful of 4atin 2merican agenc& , Dhile anal&sis needs to recogni=e 9,!, interests, these interests are not absolute and should not o3ershado# e3ents in 4atin 2merica, 2 multidimensional a""roach ac5no#ledging both 9,!, and 4atin 2merican interests better e/"lains the "resent state of interamerican relations, +errorism lea's to great po#er #arfare ----- only scenario for escalation Ayson/ 1? ZRobert 2&son, Professor of !trategic !tudies and Cirector of the Centre for !trategic !tudiesJ Ne# ]ealand at the :ictoria 9ni3ersit& of Dellington,L2fter a %errorist Nuclear 2ttac5J En3isaging Catal&tic Effects,M (t&'ies in Conflict N +errorism, :olume EE, Issue (, 'ul&, 23ailable >nline to !ubscribing Institutions 3ia InformaDorldR
2 terrorist nuclear attac5, and e3en the use of nuclear #ea"ons in res"onse b& the countr& attac5ed in the first "lace, #ould not necessaril& re"resent the #orst of the nuclear #orlds imaginable, Indeed, there are reasons to #onder #hether nuclear terrorism should e3er be regarded as belonging in the categor& of trul& e/istential threats, 2 contrast can be dra#n here #ith the global catastro"he that #ould come from a massi3e nuclear e/change bet#een t#o or more of the so3ereign states that "ossess these #ea"ons in significant numbers, E3en the #orst terrorism that the t#ent&-first centur& might bring #ould fade into insignificance alongside considerations of #hat a general nuclear #ar #ould ha3e #rought in the Cold Dar "eriod, 2nd it must be admitted that as

long as the maFor nuclear #ea"ons states ha3e hundreds and e3en thousands of nuclear #ea"ons at their dis"osal, there is al#a&s the "ossibilit& of a trul& a#ful nuclear e/change ta5ing "lace "reci"itated entirel& b& state "ossessors themsel3es, 7ut these t#o nuclear #orldsHa non-state actor nuclear attac5 and a catastro"hic interstate nuclear e/changeHare not necessaril& se"arable, It is Fust "ossible that some sort of terrorist attac5, and es"eciall& an act of nuclear terrorism, could "reci"itate a chain of e3ents leading to a massi3e e/change of nuclear #ea"ons bet#een t#o or more of the states that "ossess them, In this conte/t, toda&s and tomorro#s terrorist grou"s might assume the "lace allotted during the earl& Cold Dar &ears to ne# state "ossessors of small nuclear arsenals #ho #ere seen as raising the ris5s of a catal&tic nuclear #ar bet#een the su"er"o#ers started b& third "arties, %hese ris5s #ere considered in the late 0?I*s and earl&
0?+*s as concerns gre# about nuclear "roliferation, the so-called nY0 "roblem, It ma& reBuire a considerable amount of imagination to de"ict an es"eciall& "lausible situation #here an act of nuclear terrorism could lead to such a massi3e inter-state nuclear #ar, For e/am"le, in the e3ent of a terrorist nuclear attac5 on the 9 nited !tates, it might #ell be #ondered

Fust ho# Russia and-or China could "lausibl& be brought into the "icture, not least because the& seem unli5el& to be fingered as the most ob3ious state s"onsors or encouragers of terrorist grou"s, %he& #ould seem far too res"onsible to be in3ol3ed in su""orting that sort of terrorist beha3ior that could Fust as easil& threaten
them as #ell, !ome "ossibilities, ho#e3er remote, do suggest themsel3es, For e/am"le, ho# might the 9nited !tates react if it #as thought or disco3ered that the fissile material used in the act of nuclear terrorism had come from Russian stoc5s,.* and if for some reason Mosco# denied an& res"onsibilit& for nuclear la/it&6 %he correct attribution of that nuclear material to a "articular countr& might not be a case of science fiction gi3en the obser3ation b& Michael Ma& et al, that #hile the debris resulting from a nuclear e/"losion #ould be Ls"read o3er a #ide area in tin& fragments, its radioacti3it& ma5es it detectable, identifiable and collectable, and a #ealth of information can be obtained from its anal&sisJ the efficienc& of the e/"losion, the materials used and, most im"ortant c some indication of #here the nuclear material came from,M.0 2lternati3el&, if the act of nuclear terrorism came as a complete s&rprise, and 2merican officials refused to belie3e that a terrorist grou" #as full& res"onsible (or res"onsible at all1 sus"icion #o&l'

s ift imme'iately to state possessors 2 9&ling o&t Western ally co&ntries li5e the #ould be left #ith a 3er& short list consisting of North Korea, "erha"s Iran if its "rogram continues, and "ossibl& Pa5istan2 B&t at # at stage #o&l' 9&ssia an' C ina !e 'efinitely r&le' o&t in t is ig sta.es game of n&clear Cl&e'oI In "articular, if the act of nuclear terrorism occurred against a bac5dro" of e/isting tension in Dashingtons relations #ith Russia and-or China / an' at a time # en t reats a' alrea'y !een tra'e' !et#een t ese ma=or po#ers/ #o&l' officials an' political lea'ers not !e tempte' to ass&me t e #orstI >f course, the chances of this occurring #ould onl& seem to
9nited Kingdom and France, and "robabl& Israel and India as #ell, authorities in Dashington increase if the 9nited !tates #as alread& in3ol3ed in some sort of limited armed conflict #ith Russia and-or China, or if the& #ere confronting each other from a distance in a "ro/& #ar, as unli5el& as these de3elo"ments ma& seem at the "resent time, %he re3erse might #ell a""l& tooJ should a nuclear terrorist attac5 occur in Russia or China during a "eriod of heightened tension or e3en limited conflict #ith the 9nited !tates, could Mosco# and 7eiFing resist the "ressures that might rise domesticall& to consider the 9nited !tates as a "ossible "er"etrator or encourager of the attac56 Dashingtons early response to a terrorist

n&clear attac. on its o#n soil might also raise the "ossibilit& of an un#anted (and nuclear aided3 confrontation #it 9&ssia an'Oor C ina, For e/am"le, in the noise and confusion during the immediate aftermath of the terrorist nuclear attac5, the 9,!, "resident might be e/"ected to "lace the co&ntryCs arme' forces/ incl&'ing its n&clear arsenal/ on a ig er stage of alert2 In s&c a tense en"ironment, #hen careful "lanning runs u" against the friction of realit&, it is =&st possi!le t at %osco# an'Oor C ina mig t mista.enly rea' t is as a sign of *2(2 intentions to &se force Gan' possi!ly n&clear force3 against t em2 In t at sit&ation/ t e temptations to preempt s&c actions mig t gro#, although it must be admitted that an& "reem"tion
#ould "robabl& still meet #ith a de3astating res"onse, 2s "art of its initial res"onse to the act of nuclear terrorism (as discussed earlier1 Dashington might decide to order a significant con"entional Gor n&clear3 retaliatory or 'isarming attac.

against t e lea'ers ip of t e terrorist gro&p an'Oor states seen to s&pport t at gro&p, Ce"ending on the identit& and es"eciall& the location of these targets, Russia and-or China might inter"ret such action as being far too close for their comfort, and "otentiall& as an infringement on their s"heres of influence an' e"en on t eir so"ereignty, >ne far-fetched but "erha"s not im"ossible scenario might stem from a Fudgment in Dashington that some of the main aiders and abetters of the terrorist action resided some#here such as Chechn&a, "erha"s in connection #ith #hat 2llison claims is the LChechen insurgents c long-standing interest in all things nuclear,M.) 2merican "ressure on that "art of the #orld #ould almost certainl& raise alarms in Mosco# that might reBuire a degree of ad3anced consultation from Dashington that the latter found itself unable or un#illing to "ro3ide, %here is also the Buestion of ho# other nuclear-armed states respon' to t e act of n&clear terrorism on anot er mem!er of t at special cl&!, It could reasonabl& be e/"ected that follo#ing a nuclear terrorist attac5 on the 9nited !tates, both Russia and China #ould e/tend immediate s&m"ath& and su""ort to Dashington and #ould #or5 alongside the 9nited !tates in the !ecurit& Council, 7ut there is Fust a chance, albeit a slim one, #here the su""ort of Russia and-or China is less automatic in some cases than in others, For e/am"le, #hat #ould ha""en if the 9nited !tates #ished to discuss its right to retaliate against grou"s based in their territor&6 If, for some reason, Dashington found the res"onses of Russia and China dee"l& under#helming, (neither Lfor us or against usM1 might it also sus"ect that the& secretl& #ere in cahoots #ith the grou", increasing (again "erha"s e3er so slightl&1 t e c ances of a ma=or e@c ange, If the terrorist grou" had some
connections to grou"s in Russia and China, or e/isted in areas of the #orld o3er #hich Russia and China held s#a&, and if Dashington felt that Mosco# or 7eiFing #ere "lacing a curiousl& modest le3el of "ressure on them, #hat conclusions might it then dra# about their cul"abilit&6 If Dashington decided to use, or decided to threaten the use of, nuclear #ea"ons,

the res"onses of Russia and China #ould be crucial to the chances of a3oiding a more serio&s n&clear e@c ange, %he& might surmise, for e/am"le, that #hile the act of nuclear terrorism #as es"eciall& heinous and demanded a strong res"onse, the res"onse sim"l& had to remain belo# the nuclear threshold, It #ould be one thing for a non-state actor to ha3e bro5en the nuclear use taboo, but an entirel& different thing for a state actor, and indeed the leading state in the international s&stem, to do so, If Russia and China felt sufficientl& strongl& about that "ros"ect, there is then the Buestion of #hat o"tions #ould lie o"en to them to dissuade the 9nited !tates from such actionJ and as has been seen o3er the last se3eral decades, the central dissuader of the use of nuclear #ea"ons b& states has been the threat of nuclear retaliation, If some readers find this sim"l& too fanciful, and "erha"s e3en offensi3e to contem"late, it ma& be informati3e to re3erse the tables, 9&ssia, #hich "ossesses an arsenal of thousands of nuclear #arheads and that has been one of the t#o most im"ortant trustees of the non-use taboo, is subFected to an attac5 of nuclear terrorism2 In
response/ %osco# places its n&clear forces "ery "isi!ly on a ig er state of alert an' 'eclares t at it is consi'ering t e &se of n&clear retaliation against t e gro&p an' any of its state s&pporters2 Ho# #o&l' Was ington "ie# s&c a possi!ilityI Dould it reall& be 5een to su""ort Russias use of nuclear #ea"ons, including outside Russias traditional s"here of influence6 2nd if not, #hich seems Buite "lausible, #hat o"tions #ould Dashington ha3e to communicate that dis"leasure6 If China had been the 3ictim of the nuclear terrorism and seemed li5el& to retaliate in 5ind, #ould the 9nited !tates and Russia be ha""& to sit bac5 and let this occur6 In t e c arge' atmosp ere imme'iately after a n&clear terrorist

attac./ o# #o&l' t e attac.e' co&ntry respon' to press&re from ot er ma=or n&clear po#ers not to respon' in .in'I + e p rase A o# 'are t ey tell &s # at to 'oB imme'iately springs to min'2 (ome mig t e"en go so far as to interpret t is concern as a tacit form of sympat y or s&pport for t e terrorists2 + is mig t not elp t e c ances of n&clear restraint2

Impact +errorism 1A9

Lac. of American egemony cataly6es terrorism Fel6en!erg an' Gray 11 (2l3in !, Fel=enberg W 4e/turer at the 9ni3ersit& of Penn&sl3ania and Gale 9ni3ersit&, 4ecturer W 9ni3ersit& of Penns&l3ania and Gale 9ni3ersit& and 2le/ander 7, Gra& -- Ph,C, Candidate in International 2ffairs at the George Dashington 9ni3ersit&, L%he Ne# IsolationismM, %he National Re3ie#, 0-E, htt"J--###,nationalre3ie#,com-articles-)I+0I*-ne#isolationism-al3in-s-fel=enberg1 !M Messrs, Fran5 and Paul and their su""orters ha3e ta5en it into their minds that a reduced 2merican "resence in #orld affairs, "articularl& #here the militar& is in3ol3ed, #ould be a good thing, %he& had better thin5 againJ Dorld "olitics, li5e nature, is hardl& "rone to res"ect 3acuums, Iran and :ene=uela remain as bellicose and destabili=ing as e3er, in s"ite of t#o &ears of >bama Lengagement,M Iran sBuats beside the !trait of
@ormu=, through #hich much of the #orlds energ& su""l& tra3els, Iran has also, the original Monroe Coctrine be damned, e/tended its militar& coo"eration #ith @ugo ChA3e=s authoritarian regime, E3idence is strong that :ene=uela is "ro3iding

sanctuar& for @e=bollah terrorists in !outh 2merica, %he alliance of these t#o anti-2merican and increasingl& menacing states could "ose a threat to the 9nited !tates of a 5ind that #ould ma5e us nostalgic for the Cuban
Missile Crisis,

A+F Alliance DA ,AC

+&rn-*( egemony in Latin America em!ol'ens regional organi6ations Bran' et al 1,, 2le/ander 7rand is 4ecturer and Post-Coc Researcher at the Ce"artment of

Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Main=, !usan McE#en-Fial is 4ecturer at the Ce"artment of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Main=, Dolfgang Muno is :isiting Professor of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Erfurt, 2ndrea Ribeiro @offmann is 4ecturer at the Dill& 7randt !chool of Public Polic&, 9ni3ersit& of Erfurt, (*.-)*0), L7RICs and 9,!, @egemon&J %heoretical ReVections on !hifting Po#er Patterns and Em"irical E3idence from 4atin 2mericaM,Main= Pa"ers on International and Euro"ean Politics (MPIEP1 Pa"er No, ., htt"J--international,"olitics,uni-main=,de-files-)*0)-0*-m"ie"*.,"df,FF1
Dhile Chinas efforts "rimaril& follo# an economic rationale, 7ra=ils acti3ities in regional S institutional matters ta5e a slightl& different sha"e, >ne of the reasons attributed to the creationS of the !outh 2merican Common Mar5et (Mercosur1 is the

7ra=ilian attem"t to !alance t e *2(2K economic egemony in !outh 2merica, and to change the terms of the 9,!,-led negotiations forS the creation of a free trade area in the hemis"here, the Free %rade 2rea of the 2mericas (F%221,S Part of this "rocess #as also the ra""rochement bet#een %ercos&r and the 2ndean Communit&S (CAN1 "romoted b& the go3ernment of President Itamar Franco in 0??E, %he interregionalS coo"eration "roFect e3ol3ed from a mere free trade agreement to#ards a broader initiati3e,S #hich included the coo"eration on infrastructure and "olitical matters, and culminated #ithS the creation of the Communit& of !outh 2merican Countries (C2!21 in )**., In )**(, C2!2 #asS renamed as 9nion of !outh 2merican Nations (9N2!9R1, and included ne# elements such asS coo"eration in securit& and defense (7riceno )*0*1,S 9N2!9R is therefore another e/am"le in #hich balancing the 9,!, #as a main dri3ing forceS in the 7ra=ilian foreign "olic&, Ces"ite a range of disagreements bet#een 7ra=il and :ene=uela,S and their o#n dis"ute for sub-regional hegemon& in !outh 2merica, both countries share theS discontentment #ith 9,!,s historical inVuence in 4atin 2merica, and also, in "articular, #ith S its militari=ed a""roach to the narcotrafTc conVicts in Colombia, %he inclusion of securit& inS 9N2!9Rs obFecti3es,
and the creation of the !outh 2merican Cefence Council (!CC1 under its S aus"ices, has been a no3elt& to !outh 2merican "ractices of multilateral coo"eration, %hese de3elo"ments ha3e not onl& affected the bilateral relations bet#een

the 9,!, and !outh 2mericanS countries, but also the role of the >2! in the region , Its collecti3e
defense com"onent, the Interamerican %reat& of Reci"rocal 2ssistance (%I2R1 #as discredited after the 9,!, chose to su""ort S Great 7ritain and N2%> o3er 2rgentina during the Fal5lands Dar in 0?X), and "racticall& dead S after Me/ico renounced it in )**) (Ribeiro-@offmann-@er= )*0*1,

A+F Alliance DA ALBA ,AC

C a"e6Cs passing #as t e 'eat .nell of ALBA 9angel/ 14 (7eatrice, member of the 2d3isor board and director of 2M42 Consulting in Miami 7each, LDho Dould %a5e @ugo ChA3e=8s Place at 24726,M Inter-2merican Cialogues 4atin 2merica 2d3isor, )-.-0E, htt"J--###,ce"r,net-documents-CEPRQNe#s-4220E*)*.,"df, %ashma1 2J 7eatrice Rangel, member of the 2d3isor board and director of 2M42 Consulting in Miami 7eachJ$ It seems Buite unli5el& that 2472 #ill transcend its founding figure, %o be sure, President ChA3e= has been one of the defining "olitical
leaders in 4atin 2merica8s )0st centur&, @is 3ocal defense of "o"ulism, along #ith his charisma and "ersonal magnetism, redefined 4atin 2merican "olitical geogra"h&, establishing a clear di3ide bet#een his standing, #hich has staunch follo#ers, and those leaders #ho ha3e a mar5et-oriented 3ision of economics, President ChA3e=8s leadershi" has also sailed on the tail #inds

of high energ& "rices, #hich allo#ed him to u"hold a #holl& subsidi=ed domestic econom& and e/tend subsidies to other 4atin 2merican nations, 7ut none of the leaders of 2472 nations ha3e President ChA3e=8s "olitical a""eal or :ene=uela8s oil income, %hus ALBA mig t #ell !ecome a memory sooner rat er t an later2$ E"en if ALBA 'oesnCt fall apart/ itCs no# ineffecti"e ( ifter/ 14 (Michael, "resident of the Inter-2merican Cialogue, LDho Dould %a5e @ugo ChA3e=8s Place at 24726,M Inter-2merican Cialogues 4atin 2merica 2d3isor, )-.-0E, htt"J--###,ce"r,net-documents-CEPRQNe#s-4220E*)*.,"df, %ashma1 2J Michael !hifter, "resident of the Inter-2merican CialogueJ $!ince its ince"tion, 2472, a bloc of ideologicall& li5e-minded go3ernments, has been largel& dri3en and financed b& ChA3e=, Dithout ChA3e=, 2472 #ill not disa""ear but #ill "robabl& lose some of its force , 3isibilit&, and stridenc&, ChA3e= #as uniBuel& able to get 2472 off the ground because of his mone& and enormous ambitions, @e has long modeled himself after his idol
!im;n 7ol 3ar and, since coming to "o#er in 0???, has been intent on fostering a cohesi3e anti-9,!, bloc of 4atin 2merican go3ernments, @e has managed to bring in a handful of go3ernments, but has failed to construct

the region-#ide solidarit& that he en3isioned, !ome anal&sts ha3e s"eculated that "erha"s Ecuadorean "resident Rafael Correa might be in a "osition to assume 24728s leadershi" mantle, 7ut li5e other 2472 leaders, Correa lac5s ChA3e=8s resources and also a""ears content to "er"etuate himself in "o#er in his o#n countr&, %o be sure, ChA3e= has contributed and gi3en sha"e to a number of regional organi=ations in recent &ears such as 9N2!9R and CE42C, but at the same time he has been a "olari=ing figure #ho has hel"ed accentuate di3isions among 4atin 2merican and Caribbean countries, %he result is a notabl& fragmented "olitical landsca"e, mar5ed b& more regional grou"ings, but also considerable disunit& on 5e& economic and "olitical Buestions, %o some degree, the e/ce"tion ma& be Petrocaribe, through #hich ChA3e= has "ro3ided discounted
oil to a collection of "oor countries, es"eciall& in Central 2merica and the Caribbean, #ith the most generous subsid& going to Cuba,$

ALBA as !een ero'ing for years --- C a"e6Cs 'istractions .ic.e' off t e 'ecline ( ifter/ 1, (Michael, President of the Inter-2merican Cialogue, 2dFunct Professor of 4atin 2merican !tudies at Georgeto#n 9ni3ersit&8s !chool of Foreign !er3ice, L%he !hifting 4andsca"e of 4atin 2merican Regionalism,M Current @istor&, :olume 000, Issue (.), Februar& )*0), "g, I+-+0, ProBuest, %ashma1 %@E 2N%I-EMPIRE C497 2s a clear measure of ho# s#iftl& the region8s institutional landsca"e has been transformed, Fust a fe# &ears ago there #ere signs that 2472, a notabl& more defiant bloc of countries, had considerable momentum, 2472, launched in )**., #as concei3ed, and has been mainl& financed, b& ChA3e=, It sought to offer a radical
alternati3e to the 9!bac5ed F%22 and to "romote solidarit& among a coalition of nations that stand u" to Dashington, :ene=uela is the unmista5able leaderN other members include Cuba, Nicaragua, 7oli3ia, Ecuador, and se3eral Caribbean nations, @onduras #as also an 2472 member before that countr&8s 'une )**? militar& cou", but has since #ithdra#n from the bloc, 2472 ma& ha3e reached its =enith at a !ummit of the 2mericas gathering in Mar del Plata, 2rgentina, in )**I, #here an acrimonious atmos"here "re3ailed, %hat 9! "resident George D, 7ush #as so disli5ed in the region, and the IraB Dar #as so uni3ersall& o""osed, onl& hel"ed fuel the ChA3e=-led coalition, %he organi=ation seemed "oised to e/"and in a region that offered fertile ground for more leftist reci"es to social and economic "roblems, 7ut 2472 began losing much of its energ&, chiefl& because of

mounting "roblems in :ene=uela, but also in other 2472 member states (for e/am"le, 7oli3ia1, 2fter 0E

&ears in office, ChA3e=

began to confront more serious challenges, including a 3er& bad econom&, a shar"l& deteriorating securit& situation, and, finall&, the cancer diagnosis, !uch #ea5nesses ha3e significantl& undercut his abilit& to "la& a more energetic regional role, %he& ha3e also made it e3en more
difficult to underta5e some of ChA3e=8s more granthose schemes, such as the 7an5 of the !outh, a "ro"osed alternati3e to traditional multilateral lending institutions, 2t the same time, 7ra=il8s rise - under 4ula and no#, es"eciall&, Rousseff - has mitigated

ChA3e=8s more disru"ti3e im"act, as has Colombia8s ra""rochement #ith :ene=uela, In )**? ChA3e=
lost his fa3orite foil in George 7ush, and in )*0*, 9ribe, his other main antagonist,

A+F Alliance DA ALBA Democracy +&rn ,AC

ALBA 'estroys 'emocracy --- it res&lts in free elections t at 'issol"e into a&t oritarian regimes --- sprea'ing no# 5a&fman/ 11 (Chuc5, national coordinator of the 2lliance for Global 'ustice, LRight-Ding 9nleashes Cam"aign 2gainst Cemocrac& in 4atin 2merica,M +-E-00, htt"J--3ene=uelanal&sis,com-anal&sis-+).*, %ashma1 9! 4atin 2mericanist Cold Darriors and their far-right allies in the region 5ic5ed off a "ro"aganda cam"aign in Ma& to influence Congress and 9! citi=ens against :ene=uela and fello# 2472 (7oli3arian 2lliance for the Peo"les of >ur 2mericas1 countries, Dith declining attention being "aid to the #ars in 2fghanistan and IraB, neoconser3ati3es and neoliberals #ant to turn our attention to rolling bac5 social and economic ad3ances in 4atin 2merica, %he cam"aign began #ith a !unda&, Ma& )), )*00, o"inion "iece
in the Miami @erald "enned b& Reagan administration chief "ro"agandist >tto Reich and continued #ith a Congressional briefing that he moderated on Ma& )+, @is "remise in the Miami @erald articleJ L Cictatorshi"s are being established in

:ene=uela, 7oli3ia, Ecuador and Nicaragua b& an alliance of self-a3o#ed ^)0st-centur& socialist leaders #ho utili=e free elections to reach "o#er and then set about destro&ing the 3er& institutions of democrac& that "ut them there,M @e claimed that ALBA, #hich is a trade agreement based on
coo"eration rather than com"etition, Lhas not onl& managed to sur3i3e as a retrograde mo3ement in a moderni=ing hemis"here, but is no# acti"ely e@porting its s&!"ersi"e mo'el to neig !oring co&ntries ,M

Democracy is .ey to sol"e for e@tinction %&ra"c i. 1 W Resident !cholar at 2merican Enter"rise Institute 'oshua, LCemocrac& and nuclear "eace,M 'ul 00, htt"J--###,n"ec-#eb,org-s&llabi-mura3chi5,htm %he greatest im"etus for #orld "eace -- and "erforce of nuclear "eace -- is the s"read of democrac&, In a famous article, and subseBuent boo5, Francis Fu5u&ama argued that democrac&8s e/tension #as leading to $the
end of histor&,$ 7& this he meant the conclusion of man8s Buest for the right social order, but he also meant the $diminution of the li5elihood of large-scale conflict bet#een states,$ (01 Fu5u&ama8s "hrase #as intentionall& "ro3ocati3e, e3en tongue-in-chee5, but he #as "ointing to t#o do#n-to-earth historical obser3ationsJ that democracies are more "eaceful than other 5inds of go3ernment and that the #orld is gro#ing more democratic, Neither "oint has gone unchallenged, >nl& a fe# decades ago, as distinguished an obser3er of international relations as George Kennan made a claim Buite contrar& to the first of these assertions, Cemocracies,

he said, #ere slo# to anger, but once aroused $a democrac& , , , , fights in anger , , , , to the bitter end,$ ()1 Kennan8s 3ie# #as strongl& influenced b& the "olic& of $unconditional surrender$ "ursued in Dorld Dar II, 7ut subseBuent e/"erience, such as the negotiated settlements 2merica sought in Korea and :ietnam "ro3ed him #rong, Cemocracies are not onl& slo# to anger but also Buic5 to com"romise, 2nd to forgi3e, Not#ithstanding the insistence on unconditional surrender,
2merica treated 'a"an and that "art of German& that it occu"ied #ith e/traordinar& generosit&, In recent &ears a burgeoning literature has discussed the "eacefulness of democracies, Indeed the "ro"osition that democracies do not go to

#ar #ith one another has been described b& one "olitical scientist as being $as close as an&thing #e ha3e to an em"irical la# in international relations,$ (E1 !ome of those #ho find enthusiasm for democrac&
off-"utting ha3e challenged this "ro"osition, but their challenges ha3e onl& ser3ed as em"irical tests that ha3e confirmed its robustness, For e/am"le, the academic Paul Gottfried and the columnist-turned-"olitician Patric5 ', 7uchanan ha3e both instanced democratic England8s declaration of #ar against democratic Finland during Dorld Dar II, (.1 In fact, after much "rocrastination, England did accede to the "ressure of its !o3iet all& to declare #ar against Finland #hich #as allied #ith German&, 7ut the declaration #as "urel& formalJ no fighting ensued bet#een England and Finland, !urel& this is an e/ce"tion that "ro3es the rule, %he strongest e/ce"tion I can thin5 of is the #ar bet#een the nascent state of Israel and the 2rabs in 0?.X, Israel #as an embr&onic democrac& and 4ebanon, one of the 2rab belligerents, #as also democratic #ithin the confines of its "eculiar confessional di3ision of "o#er, 4ebanon, ho#e3er, #as a reluctant "art& to the fight, Dithin the councils of the 2rab 4eague, it o""osed the #ar but #ent along #ith its larger confreres #hen the& o"ted to attac5, E3en so, 4ebanon did little fighting and soon sued for "eace, %hus, in the case of 4ebanon against Israel, as in the case of England against Finland, democracies nominall& #ent to #ar against democracies #hen the& #ere dragged into conflicts b& authoritarian allies, %he "olitical scientist 7ruce Russett offers a different challenge to the notion that democracies are more "eaceful, $%hat democracies are in general, in dealing #ith all 5inds of

states, more "eaceful than are authoritarian or other nondemocraticall& constituted states , , , ,is a
much more contro3ersial "ro"osition than 8merel&8 that democracies are "eaceful in their dealings #ith each other, and one for #hich there is little s&stematic e3idence,$ he sa&s, (I1 Russett cites his o#n and other statistical e/"lorations #hich sho# that #hile democracies rarel& fight one another the& often fight against others, %he trouble #ith such studies, ho#e3er, is that the& rarel& e/amine the Buestion of #ho started or caused a #ar, %o reduce the data to a form that is Buantitati3el& measurable, it is easier to

determine #hether a conflict has occurred bet#een t#o states than #hose fault it #as, 7ut the latter Buestion is all im"ortant,

Cemocracies ma& often go to #ar against dictatorshi"s because the dictators see them as "re& or underestimate their resol3e, Indeed, such e/am"les abound, German& might ha3e beha3ed more cautiousl& in the
summer of 0?0. had it reali=ed that England #ould fight to 3indicate 7elgian neutralit& and to su""ort France, 4ater, @itler #as emboldened b& his notorious contem"t for the flabbiness of the democracies, North Korea almost surel& discounted the li5elihood of an 2merican militar& res"onse to its in3asion of the !outh after !ecretar& of !tate Cean 2cheson "ublicl& defined 2merica8s defense "erimeter to e/clude the Korean "eninsula (a declaration #hich merel& confirmed e/isting 9,!, "olic&1, In 0??*, !addam @ussein8s decision to s#allo# Ku#ait #as "robabl& encouraged b& the inference he must ha3e ta5en from the statements and actions of 2merican officials that Dashington #ould offer no forceful resistance, Russett sa&s that those #ho claim democracies are in general more "eaceful $#ould ha3e us belie3e that the 9nited !tates #as regularl& on the defensi3e, rarel& on the offensi3e, during the Cold Dar,$ 7ut that is not Buite rightJ the #ord $regularl&$ distorts the issue, 2 3ictim can sometimes turn the tables on an aggressor, but that does not ma5e the 3ictim eBuall& bellicose, None #ould dis"ute that Na"oleon #as res"onsible for the Na"oleonic #ars or @itler for Dorld Dar II in Euro"e, but after a time their 3ictims sei=ed the offensi3e, !o in the Cold Dar, the 9nited !tates ma& ha3e initiated some s5irmishes (although in fact it rarel& did1, but the struggle as a #hole #as dri3en one-sidedl&, %he !o3iet "olic& #as $class #arfare$N the 2merican "olic& #as $containment,$ %he so-called re3isionist historians argued that 2merica bore an eBual or larger share of res"onsibilit& for the conflict, 7ut Mi5hail Gorbache3 made nonsense of their theories #hen, in the name of glasnost and "erestroi5a, he turned the !o3iet 9nion a#a& from its historic course, %he Cold Dar ended almost instantl&--as he no doubt 5ne# it #ould, $De #ould ha3e been able to a3oid man& , , , difficulties if the democratic "rocess had de3elo"ed normall& in our countr&,$ he #rote, ((1 %o render Fudgment about the relati3e "eacefulness of states or s&stems, #e must as5 not onl& #ho started a #ar but #h&, In "articular #e should consider #hat in Catholic 'ust Dar doctrine is called $right intention,$ #hich means roughl&J #hat did the& ho"e to get out of it6 In the fe# cases in recent times in #hich #ars #ere initiated b& democracies, there #ere often moti3es other than aggrandi=ement, for e/am"le, #hen 2merica in3aded Grenada, %o be sure, Dashington #as im"elled b& selfinterest more than altruism, "rimaril& its concern for the #ell-being of 2merican nationals and its desire to remo3e a chi", ho#e3er tin&, from the !o3iet game board, 7ut 2merica had no designs u"on Grenada, and the in3aders #ere greeted #ith Fo& b& the Grenadan citi=enr&, 2fter organi=ing an election, 2merica "ulled out, In other cases, democracies ha3e turned to

#ar in the face of "ro3ocation, such as Israel8s in3asion of 4ebanon in 0?X) to root out an enem& s#orn to its destruction
or %ur5e&8s in3asion of C&"rus to rebuff a "o#er-grab b& Gree5 nationalists, In contrast, the #ars launched b& dictators, such as IraB8s in3asion of Ku#ait, North Korea8s of !outh Korea, the !o3iet 9nion8s of @ungar& and 2fghanistan, often ha3e aimed at conBuest or subFugation, %he big e/ce"tion to this rule is colonialism, %he Euro"ean "o#ers conBuered most of 2frica and 2sia, and continued to hold their "ri=es as Euro"e democrati=ed, No doubt man& of the instances of democracies at #ar that enter into the statistical calculations of researchers li5e Russett stem from the colonial era, 7ut colonialism #as a legac& of Euro"e8s "redemocratic times, and it #as abandoned after Dorld Dar II, !ince then, I 5no# of no case #here a democrac& has initiated #arfare #ithout significant "ro3ocation or for reasons of sheer aggrandi=ement, but there are se3eral cases #here dictators ha3e done so, >ne interesting "iece of Russett8s research should hel" to "oint him a#a& from his doubts that democracies are more "eaceful in general, @e aimed to e/"lain #h& democracies are more "eaceful to#ard each other, Immanuel Kant #as the first to obser3e, or rather to forecast, the "acific inclination of democracies, @e reasoned that $citi=ens , , , #ill ha3e a great hesitation in , , , , calling do#n on themsel3es all the miseries of #ar,$ (X1 7ut this 3alid insight is incom"lete, %here is a dee"er e/"lanation, Cemocrac&

is not Fust a mechanismN it entails a s"irit of com"romise and self-restraint, 2t bottom, democrac& is the #illingness to resol3e ci3il dis"utes #ithout recourse to 3iolence, Nations that embrace this ethos in the conduct of their domestic affairs are naturall& more "redis"osed to embrace it in their dealings #ith other nations, Russett aimed to e/"lain #h& democracies are more "eaceful
to#ard one another, %o do this, he constructed t#o models, >ne h&"othesi=ed that the cause la& in the mechanics of democratic decision-ma5ing (the $structural-institutional model$1, the other that it la& in the democratic ethos (the $cultural-normati3e model$1, @is statistical assessments led him to conclude thatJ $almost al#a&s the cultural-normati3e

model sho#s a consistent effect on conflict occurrence and #ar, %he structural-institutional model sometimes "ro3ides a significant relationshi" but often does not, $ (?1 If it is the ethos that ma5es
democratic states more "eaceful to#ard each other, #ould not that ethos also ma5e them more "eaceful in general6 Russett im"lies that the ans#er is no, because to his mind a critical element in the "eaceful beha3ior of democracies to#ard other democracies is their antici"ation of a conciliator& attitude b& their counter"art, 7ut this is too "at, %he attitude of li3e-and-let-li3e cannot be turned on and off li5e a s"igot, %he citi=ens and officials of democracies recogni=e that other states, ho#e3er go3erned, ha3e legitimate interests, and the& are dis"osed to tr& to accommodate those interests e/ce"t #hen the other "art&8s beha3ior seems threatening or outrageous, 2 different 5ind of challenge to the thesis that democracies are more "eaceful has been "osed b& the "olitical scientists Ed#ard G, Mansfield and 'ac5 !n&der, %he& claim statistical su""ort for the "ro"osition that #hile full& fledged democracies ma& be "acific, 2in thZeR transitional "hase of democrati=ation, countries become more aggressi3e and #ar-"rone, not less,$ (0*1 @o#e3er, li5e others, the& measure a state8s li5elihood of becoming in3ol3ed in a #ar but do not re"ort attem"ting to determine the cause or fault, Moreo3er, the& ac5no#ledge that their research re3ealed not onl& an increased li5elihood for a state to become in3ol3ed in a #ar #hen it #as gro#ing more democratic, but an almost eBual increase for states gro#ing less democratic, %his raises the "ossibilit& that the effects the& #ere obser3ing #ere caused sim"l& b& "olitical change "er se, rather than b& democrati=ation, Finall&, the& im"licitl& ac5no#ledge that the relationshi" of democrati=ation and "eacefulness ma& change o3er historical "eriods, %here is no reason to su""ose that an& such relationshi" is go3erned b& an immutable la#, !ince their em"irical base reaches bac5 to 0X00, an& effect the& re"ort, e3en if accuratel& inter"reted, ma& not hold in the contem"orar& #orld, %he& note that $in ZsomeR recent cases, in contrast to some of our historical results, the rule seems to beJ go full& democratic, or don8t go at all,$ 7ut according to Freedom @ouse, some +),I "ercent of e/tant go3ernments #ere chosen in legitimate elections, (0)1 (%his is a much larger "ro"ortion than are adFudged b& Freedom @ouse to be $free states,$ a more demanding criterion, and it includes man& #ea5l& democratic states,1 >f the remaining E(,I "ercent, a large number are e/"eriencing some degree of democrati=ation or hea3& "ressure in that direction, !o the choice $don8t go at all$ (001 is rarel& realistic in the contem"orar& #orld, %hese statistics also

contain the ans#er to those #ho doubt the second "ro"osition behind Fu5u&ama8s forecast, namel&, that the #orld is gro#ing more democratic, !5e"tics ha3e dra#n u"on !amuel @untington8s fine boo5, %he %hird Da3eJ Cemocrati=ation in the 4ate %#entieth Centur&, @untington sa&s that the democrati=ation trend that began in the mid-0?(*s in Portugal, Greece and !"ain is the third such e"isode, %he first $#a3e$ of democrati=ation began #ith the 2merican re3olution and lasted through the aftermath of Dorld Dar I, coming to an end in the inter#ar &ears #hen much of Euro"e regressed bac5 to fascist or militar& dictatorshi", %he second #a3e, in this telling, follo#ed Dorld Dar II #hen #holesale decoloni=ation ga3e rise to a raft of ne# democracies, Most of these, notabl& in 2frica, colla"sed into dictatorshi" b& the 0?+*s, bringing the second #a3e to its end, %hose #ho follo# @untington8s argument ma& ta5e the failure of democrac& in se3eral of the former !o3iet re"ublics and some other instances of bac5sliding since 0?X? to signal the end of the third #a3e, !uch an im"ression, ho#e3er, #ould be misleading, >ne unsatisf&ing thing about @untington8s $#a3es$ is their une3enness, %he first lasted about 0I* &ears, the second about )*, @o# long should #e e/"ect the third to endure6 If it is li5e the second, it #ill ebb an& da& no#, but if it is li5e the first, it #ill run until the around the &ear )0)I, 2nd b& then--#ho 5no#s6-"erha"s man5ind #ill ha3e incinerated itself, mo3ed to another "lanet, or e3en de3ised a better "olitical s&stem, Further, @untington8s meta"hor im"lies a lac5 of o3erall "rogress or direction, Da3es rise and fall, 7ut each of the re3erses that follo#ed @untington8s t#o #a3es #as brief, and each ne# #a3e raised the number of democracies higher than before, @untington does, ho#e3er, "resent a statistic that seems to #eigh hea3il& against an& unidirectional inter"retation of democratic "rogress, %he "ro"ortion of states that #ere democratic in 0??* (.I_1, he sa&s, #as identical to the "ro"ortion in 0?)), (0E1 7ut there are t#o ans#ers to this, In 0?)) there #ere onl& +. statesN in 0??* there #ere 0+I, 7ut the number of "eo"les had not gro#n a""reciabl&, %he difference #as that in 0?)) most "eo"les li3ed in colonies, and the& #ere not counted as states, %he +. states of that time #ere mostl& the ad3anced countries, >f those, t#o thirds had become democratic b& 0??*, #hich #as a significant gain, %he additional 0*0 states counted in 0??* #ere mostl& former colonies, >nl& a minorit&, albeit a substantial one, #ere democratic in 0??*, but since 3irtuall& none of those #ere democratic in 0?)), that #as also a significant gain, In short, there #as "rogress all around, but this #as obscured b& as5ing #hat "ercentage of states #ere democratic, 2s5ing the Buestion this #a& means that a "eo"le #ho #ere subFected to a domestic dictator counted as a non-democrac&, but a "eo"le #ho #ere subFected to a foreign dictator did not count at all, Moreo3er, #hile the criteria for Fudging a state democratic 3ar&, the statistic that .I "ercent of states #ere democratic in 0??* corres"onds #ith Freedom @ouse8s count of $democratic$ "olities (as o""osed to its smaller count of $free$ countries, a more demanding criterion1, 7ut b& this same count, Freedom @ouse no# sa&s that the "ro"ortion of democracies has gro#n to +),I "ercent, In other #ords, the $third #a3e$ has not abated, %hat Freedom @ouse could count 0)* freel& elected go3ernments b& earl& )**0 (out of a total of 0?) inde"endent states1 bes"ea5s a 3ast transformation in human go3ernance #ithin the s"an of ))I &ears, In 0((I, the number of democracies #as =ero, In 0((+, the birth of the 9nited !tates of 2merica brought the total u" to one, !ince then, democrac& has s"read at an accelerating "ace, most of the gro#th ha3ing occurred #ithin the t#entieth centur&, #ith greatest momentum since 0?(., %hat this momentum has slac5ened some#hat since its "innacle in 0?X?, destined to be remembered as one of the most re3olutionar& &ears in all histor&, #as ine3itable, !o man& "eo"les #ere s#e"t u" in the democratic tide that there #as certain to be some bac5sliding, Most countries8 democratic e3olution has included some fits and starts rather than a smooth "rogression, !o it must be for the #orld as a #hole, Nonetheless, the o3erall trend remains "o#erful and clear, Ces"ite the bac5sliding, the number and "ro"ortion of democracies stands higher toda& than e3er before, %his "rogress offers a source of ho"e for enduring nuclear "eace, %he danger of nuclear #ar #as radicall& reduced almost o3ernight #hen Russia abandoned Communism and turned to democrac&, For other ominous corners of the #orld, #e ma& be in a 5ind of race bet#een the emergence or gro#th of nuclear arsenals and the ad3ent of democrati=ation, If this is so, the greatest cause for #orr& ma& rest #ith the Moslem Middle East #here nuclear arsenals do not &et e/ist but #here the "ros"ects for democrac& ma& be still more remote,

A+F Alliance DA ALBA Democracy +&rn 1A9

Dismantling ALBA t ro&g increase' *2(2 infl&ence is .ey to resol"e t reats to 'emocracy --- it #onCt 'ie off !y itself 5a&fman/ 11 (Chuc5, national coordinator of the 2lliance for Global 'ustice, cites >tto Reich, former senior official in the administrations of Presidents Ronald Reagan, George @, D, 7ush and George D, 7ush, and cites 'oel @irst, a Fello# on the Council of Foreign Relations, former 2cting @ead of the >ffice of %ransition Initiati3es in the 9! embass& in :ene=uela, LRight-Ding 9nleashes Cam"aign 2gainst Cemocrac& in 4atin 2merica,M +-E-00, htt"J--3ene=uelanal&sis,com-anal&sis-+).*, %ashma1
%he attac5s on 2472 #ould be laughable if it #erent for the fact that those ma5ing the charges hold "ositions ca"able of setting "ublic "olic& and molding "ublic o"inion, 2472 is a coo"erati3e trade agreement entered into b&

:ene=uela, Cuba, Nicaragua, 7oli3ia, Ecuador and se3eral small Caribbean island nations, 9nder
2472, :ene=uela trades oil to Cuba in e/change for Cuban doctors, It trades oil to Nicaragua in e/change for beef and blac5 beans (#hich Nicaraguans #ont eat1, Nicaragua trades beef and other food "roducts to Cuba in e/change for doctors and literac& trainers,

Coo"erati3e trade is anathema to the neoliberal LfreeM trade ideolog& because it doesnt force nations to com"ete and most im"ortantl& does not force do#n #ages, Ros-4ehtinen made the lin5 clear

#hen she used the briefing to critici=e 9! Ls"ecial interest grou"sM that stand in the #a& of signing free trade agreements, singling out the the Colombia F%2 as an e/am"le, %he congress#oman critici=ed the role that Cha3e= "la&ed (along #ith Colombian President 'uan Manuel !antos #hom she didnt mention1 in the negotiated return of ousted @onduran President Manuel ]ela&a, 9nder ]ela&a, @onduras #as also a member countr& of 2472, Ros-4ehtinen, #ho 3ocall& su""orted the cou" in @onduras said about the li5el& return of its membershi" in the >rgani=ation of 2merican !tates made "ossible b& ]ela&as return, L@onduras should not ha3e been sus"ended and its return is long o3erdue,M !he #ent on to sa& about :ene=uela that sanctions are LFust the first ste" and more must be done,M !he #ent on to sa& that >tto Reich L#ill be 3er& in3ol3ed in these effortsM and #ill ta5e a more Lacti3e roleM on trade, democrac& and securit&, !ince he is no# a "aid lobb&ist, one #onders Fust #hat role Ros-4ehtinen sees for Reich6 %he role she sees for the master "ro"agandist ma& ha3e been re3ealed in Reichs remar5s follo#ing hers, @e called 2472 an

Lideolog&M and a Lthreat to democrac&,M @e said the Ldictatorshi"sM are tr&ing to s"read their ideolog& to other 4atin 2merican countries, 9eic , #ho is an e/"ert in the L7ig 4ieM techniBue "erfected in his namesa5e, the %hird Reich, calle' for t e *( to ta.e more of a role in Aen'ing ALBA M because, he claimed, L2472 e/iles or im"risons #ithout charges #hoe3er disagrees #ith it,M Most of the other "anel
s"ea5ers said the "redictable things, usuall& #ithout an& e3idence to bac5 their claims, Notable though for one u""ing Reich #as 'oel @irst, a Fello# on the Council of Foreign Relations, @irst #as 2cting @ead of the >ffice of %ransition Initiati3es in the 9! embass& in :ene=uela from )**.-)**X, In that "osition he had the res"onsibilit& for allocating funds to the :ene=uelan o""osition, In )**+, #hen I led a delegation to :ene=uela to in3estigate 9! interference in that &ears "residential elections, #e #ere refused a meeting #ith @irst, @e accused the 2472 countries of su""orting the doctrine of Las&mmetric

#arfareM, #hich he described as guerrilla #arfare, terrorism, arming children, contem"t for the Rules of Dar and International @umanitarian 4a#, and Lim"erialM control, @e "redictabl& thre# the
F2RC, @e=bollah, and Iran into the mi/, Carlos Ponce, the Reagan-Fascell Fello# at the mis-named National Endo#ment for Cemocrac&, laid out the right-#ing case that the "residents of :ene=uela, Ecuador, Nicaragua and 7oli3ia, though democraticall& elected, then "roceed to brea5 do#n democratic institutions in their countries, @e used as an e/am"le Caniel >rtegas #inning of a ruling b& the Nicaraguan !u"reme Court that the constitutional "ro3ision against running for a consecuti3e term #as 3oid, @o#e3er, the strateg& >rtega used to "ermit him to run again is "recisel& the same as that used b& Nobel Peace Pri=e #inner >scar 2rias in Costa Rica #hich allo#ed him to ser3e run and #in a second term, No one on the right uttered a breath of criticism #hen Colombian President 2l3aro 9ribe amended the constitution to run a second time, 9ribe tried, and failed, to amend it again so he could run for a third term, In the 2472 countries, @irst said, Lno one else can be elected because the current

elected leaders ha3e changed the la#s,M %his is an absurd statement, In these countries no one else has &et to be elected because the "o3ert& reduction "rograms and economic and "olitical democrac& the&3e im"lemented ha3e made the current leaders the most "o"ular candidates in their countries,
:ene=uela has the most fraud-"roof election mechanisms in the #orld W much more so than the 9!, Its electronic 3oting com"lete #ith "a"er trail, thumb "rint 3erification and large sam"le recount s&stem lea3es little room for mani"ulation, %here is no legitimate #a& that an&one can claim election fraud in :ene=uela,

A+F Alliance DA CELAC ,AC

CELAC is ineffecti"e an' 'eprioriti6e' --- #onCt !ecome a ma=or player in Latin America ( ifter/ 1, (Michael, President of the Inter-2merican Cialogue, 2dFunct Professor of 4atin 2merican !tudies at Georgeto#n 9ni3ersit&8s !chool of Foreign !er3ice, L%he !hifting 4andsca"e of 4atin 2merican Regionalism,M Current @istor&, :olume 000, Issue (.), Februar& )*0), "g, I+-+0, ProBuest, %ashma1 Get, unless a regional leader decides to gi3e it a high "riorit& and more structure, it is 'o&!tf&l t at CELAC #ill !e transforme' into a formal instit&tion2 %here #ill be "eriodic meetings of heads of state the ne/t ones are scheduled to ta5e "lace in Chile, follo#ed b& Cuba - but #ithout a secretariat or an& "olitical decisions #ith teeth, Me/ico is content to be "art of the grou"ing, #hich reconnects it to !outh 2merican "olitical affairs, but at the same time enables it to focus on its N2F%2 "artners, 7ra=il8s "riorit& in the 2mericas is clearl& centered on 9N2!9R, #hich is seen as an instrument for maintaining social "eace and order in the #ider region,

A+F Alliance DA %E9CD(*9 ,AC

%E9CD(*9 'eclining no# Carran6a/ E (Cr, Mario E,, 2ssociate Professor of Political !cience, %e/as 2 P M 9ni3ersit&Kings3ille, Ph,C,, 9ni3ersit& of Chicago, L42%IN 2MERIC2N PER!PEC%I:EJ MERC>!9R, %@E FREE %R2CE 2RE2 >F %@E 2MERIC2!, 2NC %@E F9%9RE >F 9,!, @EGEM>NG IN 42%IN 2MERIC2,M )( Fordham Int8l 4,', 0*)?, Februar& )**., le/is, %ashma1 First, the recharged hegemon& thesis argues that $the end of the Cold Dar has if an&thing strengthened the dri3e in Dashington to consolidate its informal em"ire in 4atin 2merica, $ 0* MERC>!9R #ould be Fust an instrument to achie3e that goal, ser3ing the function $of more thoroughl& incor"orating ,,, Zmember countriesR #ithin the #orld ca"italist s&stem #hile "reser3ing their subordinate status in that s&stem,$ 00 From this "ers"ecti3e, MERC>!9R is not an autonomous "roFect of regional integration and is destined to "erish, absorbed b& the Free %rade 2rea of the 2mericasN or to become irrele3ant, after the Zb0*E.R successful conclusion of the Coha round of global free trade negotiations, %E9CD(*9 is ineffecti"e --- 'eclining o"er time ( ifter/ 1, (Michael, President of the Inter-2merican Cialogue, 2dFunct Professor of 4atin 2merican !tudies at Georgeto#n 9ni3ersit&8s !chool of Foreign !er3ice, L%he !hifting 4andsca"e of 4atin 2merican Regionalism,M Current @istor&, :olume 000, Issue (.), Februar& )*0), "g, I+-+0, ProBuest, %ashma1
In fact, careful e/amination of the "erformance and record of subregional grou"ings to date raises Buestions about the "otential effecti3eness of more far-reaching regional arrangements, Mercosur, #hich #as to ser3e as a customs union in3ol3ing 7ra=il, 2rgentina, 9rugua&, and Paragua&, #itnessed

a Fum" in trade in the 0??*s, but o3er time its functioning has become "roblematic, Protectionist "ractices ha3e introduced considerable strain #ithin the bloc, In addition, Mercosur8s inabilit& to resol3e a rancorous dis"ute bet#een 2rgentina and 9rugua& o3er the o"eration of a "a"er mill on their border e@pose' serio&s limitations in its effecti"eness2 Get, for all of its shortcomings, Mercosur is generall& regarded as less troubled than other subregional
grou"ings in 4atin 2merica, For e/am"le, the 2ndean Communit& of Nations, #hich has e/isted since 0?+?, has been ri3en b& "olitical differences and high le3els of mistrust, >ther subregional arrangements face similar obstacles,

A+F Alliance DA %E9CD(*9 Hegemony +&rn

Fail&re to reassert *2(2 infl&ence in Latin America lea's to a egemonic transition to#ar' %E9CD(*9 Carran6a/ E (Cr, Mario E,, 2ssociate Professor of Political !cience, %e/as 2 P M 9ni3ersit&Kings3ille, Ph,C,, 9ni3ersit& of Chicago, L42%IN 2MERIC2N PER!PEC%I:EJ MERC>!9R, %@E FREE %R2CE 2RE2 >F %@E 2MERIC2!, 2NC %@E F9%9RE >F 9,!, @EGEM>NG IN 42%IN 2MERIC2,M )( Fordham Int8l 4,', 0*)?, Februar& )**., le/is, %ashma1
:, FR>M C>>PER2%I>N %> CI!I449!I>NMEN%J 9,!,-42%IN 2MERIC2N RE42%I>N! 7EF>RE 2NC 2F%ER !EP%EM7ER 00%@ Zb0*.?R Most "eo"le in the region feel that t#o decades of neoliberal economic "olicies ha3e

done little to alle3iate "o3ert& in 4atin 2merica, !e3eral 9,!, anal&sts noted that b& ignoring the 4atin 2merican economic and social "redicament, the 9nited !tates #as $losing 4atin 2merica,$ +I 2s a result, the strong 4atin 2merican solidarit& #ith the 9nited !tates after the !e"tember 00th traged& slo#l& 3anished, %hese sentiments turned into resentment and animosit& , es"eciall& after the 9,!, decision to in3ade IraB, #hich #as #idel& "ercei3ed in 4atin 2merica as a neocolonial enter"rise, %his decision #as not su""orted b& the 4atin
2merican non-"ermanent members of the 9nited Nations !ecurit& Council, Me/ico and Chile, des"ite their close economic ties #ith the 9nited !tates, %he !ummit of the 2mericas Process and the F%22 negotiations, launched at the !econd !ummit of the 2mericas in !antiago, Chile, 0??X, #ere originall& "ercei3ed in 4atin 2merica as mar5ing the beginning of a ne# era in 9,!,-4atin 2merican relations, Ces"ite structural as&mmetries bet#een the 9nited !tates and 4atin 2merica, the t#o sides #ould embar5 on a mature relationshi" and the 9nited !tates #ould be #illing and able to deli3er sufficient concessions in the F%22 tal5s to com"ensate the concessions it #anted from 4atin 2merica, @o#e3er, the inabilit& of the Clinton administration to obtain fast-trac5 negotiating authorit& from the 9,!, Congress raised serious doubts during and after the !antiago summit about the seriousness of the 9,!, commitment to the F%22, In >ctober )**), the 9,!, Congress finall& granted fast-trac5 authorit& (renamed %rade Promotion 2uthorit&, $%P2$1 to President 7ush, but it im"osed se3ere limitations on his "o#er to sign free trade agreements #ithout amendments from Congress, ++ !ince the last stage of the F%22 tal5s coincides #ith the Zb0*I*R )**. election &ear, the 7ush administration is unli5el& to ma5e concessions on issues such as agricultural subsidies, #hich ha3e strong domestic constituencies in states li5e Florida (#hich are crucial battlegrounds in President 7ush8s dri3e for reelection1, %hese domestic "olitical constraints ha3e made it difficult to achie3e a com"rehensi3e F%22 treat& in 'anuar& )**I, >n one hand, 7ra=il has consistentl& refused to acce"t the 9,!, "osition of e/cluding farm subsidies from the F%22 negotiations, lea3ing them for the Coha Round of global trade tal5s (#hich ha3e stalled1, >n the other hand, as 7ra=ilian Foreign Minister Celso 2morim recogni=ed at the Miami %rade ministerial meeting in No3ember )**E, tr&ing to "ush the 9nited !tates to discuss 9,!, agricultural subsidies in the F%22 tal5s is li5e $belie3ing in fair& tales,$ +( %he histor& of the F%22 negotiations challenges former 9,!, %rade Re"resentati3e Charlene

7arshef5&8s claim that the 9nited !tates, #ill al#a&s be at the center Fust because of the structural #eight of its 9![ ten trillion econom&, In the mid-0??*s it #as #idel& belie3ed that the 4atin 2merican countries had no alternati3e to mo3ing in the direction of the F%22, %his inter"retation underestimated the "otential of subregional blocs such as MERC>!9R to c allenge *2(2 egemony, *( primacy pre"ents glo!al conflict 'iminis ing po#er creates a "ac&&m t at ca&ses transition #ars in m&ltiple places Broo.s et al 14 Z!te"hen G, 7roo5s is 2ssociate Professor of Go3ernment at Cartmouth College,G, 'ohn I5enberr& is the 2lbert G, Milban5 Professor of Politics and International 2ffairs at Princeton 9ni3ersit& in the Ce"artment of Politics and the Doodro# Dilson !chool of Public and International 2ffairs, @e is also a Global Eminence !cholar at K&ung @ee 9ni3ersit&,Dilliam C, Dohlforth is the Caniel Debster Professor in the Ce"artment of Go3ernment at Cartmouth College, LCon8t Come @ome, 2mericaJ %he Case against RetrenchmentM, Dinter )*0E, :ol, E(, No, E, Pages (I0,htt"J--###,mit"ressFournals,org-doi-abs-0*,00+)-I!ECQaQ**0*(, GCI FileR 2 core "remise of dee" engagement is that it "re3ents the emergence of a far more dangerous global securit& en3ironment, For one thing, as noted abo3e, the 9nited !tates o3erseas "resence gi3es it the le3erage to restrain "artners from ta5ing "ro3ocati3e action, Perha"s more im"ortant, its core alliance commitments also deter states #ith

as"irations to regional hegemon& from contem"lating e/"ansion and ma5e its "artners more secure, reducing their incenti3e to ado"t solutions to their securit& "roblems that threaten others and thus sto5e securit& dilemmas, %he contention that engaged 9,!, "o#er dam"ens the baleful effects of anarch& is consistent #ith influential 3ariants of realist theor&, Indeed, arguabl& the scariest "ortra&al of the #ar-"rone #orld that #ould emerge absent the L2merican PacifierM is "ro3ided in the #or5s of 'ohn Mearsheimer, #ho forecasts dangerous multi"olar regions re"lete #ith securit& com"etition, arms races, nuclear "roliferation and associated "re3enti3e #artem"tations, regional ri3alries, and e3en runs at regional hegemon& and full-scale great "o#er #ar, () @o# do retrenchment ad3ocates, the bul5 of #hom are realists, discount this benefit6 %heir arguments are com"licated, but t#o ca"ture most of the 3ariationJ (01 9,!, securit& guarantees are not necessar& to "re3ent dangerous ri3alries and conflict in EurasiaN or ()1 "re3ention of ri3alr& and conflict in Eurasia is not a 9,!, interest, Each res"onse is connected to a different theor& or set of theories, #hich ma5es sense gi3en that the #hole debate hinges on a com"le/ future counterfactual (#hat #ould ha""en to Eurasias securit& setting if the 9nited !tates trul& disengaged61, 2lthough a certain ans#er is im"ossible, each of these res"onses is nonetheless a #ea5er argument for retrenchment than ad3ocates ac5no#ledge, %he first res"onse flo#s from defensi3e realism as #ell as other international

relations theories that discount the conflict-generating "otential of anarch& under contem"orar& conditions, (E Cefensi3e realists maintain that the high e/"ected costs of territorial conBuest, defense dominance, and an arra& of "olicies and "ractices that can be used credibl& to signal benign intent, mean that Eurasias maFor states could manage regional multi"olarit& "eacefull& #ithout the2merican "acifier, Retrenchment #ould be a bet on this scholarshi", "articularl& in regions #here the 5inds of stabili=ers that nonrealist theories "oint toHsuch as democratic go3ernance or dense institutional lin5agesHare either absent or #ea5l& "resent, %here are three other maFor bodies of scholarshi", ho#e3er, that might gi3e decisionma5ers "ause before ma5ing this bet, First is regional e/"ertise, Needless to sa&, there is no consensus on the net securit& effects of 9,!, #ithdra#al, Regarding each region, there are o"timists and "essimists, Fe# e/"erts e/"ect a return of intense great "o#er com"etition in a "ost-2merican Euro"e, but man& doubt Euro"ean go3ernments #ill "a& the "olitical costs of increased E9 defense coo"eration and the budgetar& costs of increasing militar& outla&s, (. %he result might be

Euro"e that is inca"able of securing itself from 3arious threats that could be destabili=ing #ithin the region and be&ond (e,g,, a regional conflict a5in to the 0??*s 7al5an #ars1, lac5s ca"acit& for global securit& missions in #hich 9,!, leaders might #ant Euro"ean "artici"ation, and is 3ulnerable to the influence of outside rising "o#ers, Dhat about the other "arts of Eurasia #here the 9nited !tates has a substantial militar& "resence6 Regarding the Middle East, the balance begins tos#ing to#ard "essimists concerned that states currentl& bac5ed b& Dashington H notabl& Israel, Eg&"t, and !audi 2rabiaHmight ta5e actions u"on 9,!, retrenchment that #ould intensif& securit& dilemmas, 2nd concerning East 2sia, "essimismregarding the regions "ros"ects #ithout the 2merican "acifier is "ronounced, 2rguabl& the "rinci"al concern e/"ressed b& area e/"erts is that 'a"an and !outh Korea are li5el& to o!tain a n&clear capacity and increase their militar& commitments, #hich could sto5e a 'esta!ili6ing reaction from C ina , It is notable that during the Cold Dar, both !outh Korea and %ai#an mo3ed to
a obtain a nuclear #ea"ons ca"acit& and #ere onl& constrained from doing so b& astill-engaged 9nited !tates, (I %he second bod& of scholarshi" casting doubt on the bet on defensi3e realisms sanguine "ortra&al is all of the research that undermines its conce"tion of state "references, Cefensi3e realisms o"timism about #hat #ould ha""en if the 9nited !tates retrenched is 3er& much de"endent on its"articularHand highl& restricti3eHassum"tion about state "referencesN once #e rela/ this assum"tion, then much of its basis for o"timism 3anishes, !"ecificall&, the "rediction of "ost-2merican tranBuilit& throughout Eurasia rests on the assum"tion that securit& is the onl& rele3ant state "reference, #ith securit& defined narro#l& in terms of "rotection from 3iolent e/ternal attac5s on the homeland, 9nder that assum"tion, the securit& "roblem is largel& sol3ed as soon as offense and defense are clearl& distinguishable, and offense is e/tremel& e/"ensi3e relati3e to defense, 7urgeoning

research across the social and other sciences, ho#e3er,undermines that core assum"tionJ states ha3e "references not onl& for securit& but also for "restige, status , and other aims, and the&engage in trade-offs among the 3arious obFecti3es, (+ In addition, the& define securit& not Fust in terms of territorial "rotection but in 3ie# of man& and 3aried milieu goals , It follo#s that e3en states that are relati3el& secure ma& ne3ertheless engage in highl& com"etiti3e beha3ior, Em"irical studies sho# that this is indeed sometimes the case, (( In sum, a bet on a benign "ostretrenchment Eurasia is a bet that leaders of maFor countries #ill ne3er allo# these nonsecurit& "references to influence their strategic choices, %o the degree that these bodies of scholarl& 5no#ledge ha3e "redicti3e le3erage, 9,!, retrenchment #ould result in a significant deterioration in the securit& en3ironment in at least some of the #orlds 5e& regions, De ha3e alread& mentioned the third, e3en more alarming bod& of scholarshi", >ffensi3e realism "redicts that the #ithdra#al of the 2merican "acifier #ill &ield either a com"etiti3e regional multi"olarit& com"lete #ith associated insecurit&, arms racing, crisis instabilit&, nuclear "roliferation , and the li5e, or bids for regional hegemon&, #hich ma& be be&ond the ca"acit& of local great "o#ers to contain (and #hich in an& case #ould generate intensel& com"etiti3e beha3ior, "ossibl& including regional great "o#er #ar1,

A+F Alliance DA %E9CD(*9 A+F +ra'e

%ercos&r &rts tra'e an' str&ct&ral asymmetries means %ercos&r ine"ita!ly fails Horn!ec. ?8, ', F, @ornbec5 !"ecialist in International %rade and FinanceS Foreign
2ffairs, Cefense, and %rade Ci3ision (9"dated March )+, )**X, LMercosurJ E3olution and S Im"lications for 9,!, %rade Polic&M, CR! Re"ort for Congress, htt"J--assets,o"encrs,com-r"ts-R4EE+)*Q)**X*E)+,"df, FF1
outset, Mercosur

%he Mercosur "act calls for an incremental "ath to a common mar5et, but after 0I &ears onl& a limited customs union has been achie3ed, From the

struggled to reconcile a basic inconsistenc& in its goals for "artial economic unionJ ho# to achie3e trade integration, #hile also ensuring that the benefits #ould be balanced among members and that each countr& #ould retain some control o3er its trade, "roduction, and consum"tion structure, %his delicate balance faced serious structural and "olic& as&mmetries that became clear #hen 7ra=il and 2rgentina e/"erienced financial crises and dee" recessions, %hese economic setbac5s disru"ted trade flo#s among members, causing friction , the ado"tion of ne# bilateral safeguards, and a retreat from the commitment to dee"er integration, S For no#, Mercosur has turned to e/"anding rather than dee"ening the agreement, Man& !outh 2merican countries ha3e been added as $associate members$ and Mercosur has reached out for other !outh-!outh arrangements in 2frica and 2sia, %hese are limited agreements and unli5el& "aths to continental economic integration, Internal conflicts ha3e highlighted Mercosur8s institutional #ea5nesses and slo#ed the integration "rocess, 9rugua& has di3ersified its trade more to#ard the 9nited !tates, and is sho#ing signs of reconsidering the benefits of an $e/clusi3e$ Mercosur trade arrangement, :ene=uela8s accession to the "act adds a decidedl& anti-2merican factor and ma& com"licate both Mercosur8s internal balance and regional trade relationshi"s,

A+F Alliance DA *NA(*9 ,AC

Lac. of Bra6ilian in"ol"ement ma.es *NA(*9 ineffecti"e --- no prospects for gro#t Flannery/ 1, (Nathaniel Parish, Contributor at Forbes, LCan !outh 2merica 7ecome the Ne# Euro"ean 9nion6,M Forbes, 00-E*-0), htt"J--###,forbes,com-sites-nathaniel"arishflanner&-)*0)-00-E*-can-south-americabecome-the-ne#-euro"ean-union-, %ashma1
>n No3ember E*, )*0) the heads of state from !outh 2merica gathered in Peru, for a meeting under the banner of 9N2!9R, an international organi=ation that "romotes economic integration and regional dialogue bet#een countries in !outh 2merica, 2 fe#

&ears ago, 9N2!9R #as touted an im"ortant "olitical de3elo"ment for the region, Follo#ing the outbrea5 of troubles in the Euro"ean 9nion, t e organi6ationCs prospects no# seem a bit more 'im2 In a
recent article for the 2mericas !ociet&, I e/"lained L2lthough 9N2!9R had loo5ed to the Euro"ean 9nion as a model for creating a common currenc& and central ban5, its members shel3ed such "ro"osals in the summer of )*00, Curing its tenure, the grou" has hel"ed mediate conflicts bet#een member countries, aided in disaster res"onse, and fostered collaboration on collecti3e defense and de3elo"ment "roFects,M 2lthough 9N2!9R has ser3ed as an effecti3e forum for dialogue and has hel"ed member countries "eacefull& resol3e a number of di"lomatic dis"utes, the grou" has had less

success in building Euro"ean-st&le multinational institutions, %hree da&s before the No3ember E*, )*0) 9N2!9R meeting, 7ra=ils "resident, Cilma Rousseff, announced she #ould not attend the summit in 4ima due to conflicts #ith other LcommitmentsM in her schedule, @er failure to attend ma& hint at the le3el of im"ortance 7ra=il "laces on the coo"erati3e club, 7ra=il has also shied a#a& from financing a !outh 2merican de3elo"ment ban5,
but has enthusiasticall& #or5ed to finance the construction of the Interoceanic @igh#a&, a free#a& that lin5s 7ra=il to Pacific coast "orts in Peru, 7ra=il has not emerged as a 3ocal "ro"onent of collecti3e financing of regional infrastructure "roFects that #ould foster more trade ties bet#een 9N2!9R member countries, Curing a recent con3ersation :ictoria Murillo a 4atin 2merica-focused "olitical scientist from Columbia 9ni3ersit& told me L7ra=il #ants access to the Pacific ZandR needs infrastructure to access 2sia, thats #here the mar5ets are no#,M 9N2!9R has had less success in coordinating collecti3e action to

finance regional infrastructure "roFects, 7ra=il is currentl& focused mainl& on building u" its internal mar5et and e/"anding its e/"orts to 2sia, %he o""ortunities for economic coo"eration #ith the rest of !outh 2merica seem at the "resent to be some#hat limited for 7ra=il, In m& article for the 2mericas !ociet&, I e/"lained that 9N2!9Rs Labilit& to coo"erate is affected b& the dis"ro"ortionate si=e of 7ra=ils econom&, #hich accounts for about +* "ercent of 9N2!9Rs total economic out"ut, Dorld 7an5 data sho#s that
7ra=il, the countr& #ith the strongest internal mar5et in 4atin 2merica, is also the least trade-de"endent econom& in 9N2!9R, In )*00, 7ra=ils e/"orts accounted for less than 0) "ercent of GCP, less than half of the a3erage rate of the !"anish-s"ea5ing countries in !outh 2merica,M :ictoria Murillo told me, L7ra=il to 9N2!9R is li5e German& to the E9, !uccess #ill de"end on member countries #illingness to acce"t 7ra=il as a leader,M For 9N2!9R to come together 7ra=il #ill need to ta5e on more of a leadershi" role, #or5ing #ith other member-countries to lo#er trade barriers and create a common mar5et, 'oao Castro Ne3es, a 7ra=il anal&st at the Eurasia Grou", a "olitical ris5 consultanc& recentl& told me that in the short term 9N2!9Rs

institutionali=ation L#ill be 3er& slo# and incremental M and the grou" #ill Lremain a forum for dialogue in the
foreseeable future,M

+ons of regional !arriers to t e effecti"eness of *NA(*9 (aa"er'ra/ 0 (4uis 2ngel, LREGI>NJ 9N2!9R--M>RE DE2KNE!!E! %@2N !%RENG%@!,M Noti!ur - !outh 2merican Political and Economic 2ffairs, X-)0-*?, htt"J--###,thefreelibrar&,com-REGI>N_E2Y9N2!9R-M>REYDE2KNE!!E!Y%@2NY!%RENG%@!,-a*)*+)0EE?(, %ashma1 %he future of the 9nion de Naciones !uramericanas (9N2!9R1 seems to be that of an entit& #ithout much #eight in 4atin 2merican geo"olitics, since there are no common guidelines moti3ating the countries to #or5 for its immediate consolidation, 9N2!9R #as more a res"onse to demagogic discourse than a
real interest in creating an organi=ation that unifies 4atin 2merican nations, In No3ember )**(, its first secretar&-general, former Ecuadoran President Rodrigo 7orFa (0?XX-0??)1, e/"ressed his doubts about the efficac& of the ne# regional bloc, $ 9N2!9R is

on the road to becoming a ne# source of bureaucracies and budgets because it #ill not achie3e concrete and Buantifiable results in integration matters,$ said 7orFa u"on resigning from the 9N2!9R leadershi" in
Ma& )**X, !imilarl&, Ecuadoran President Rafael Correa called for a change in the founding statutes of 9N2!9R, since, he said, the statutes as "resented #ould not contribute to integration, Ces"ite the criticism, Correa signed the document #ith the "romise that modifications #ould be made to facilitate real !outh 2merican integration, but this commitment remains unfulfilled, %ensions

bet#een and among countries create obstacles %he first criticisms of 9N2!9R #ere follo#ed b& a series of disagreements so serious that the mere election of a ne# secretar&-general in Cecember )**X re5indled the animosit& bet#een some delegations, and 9rugua& threatened to #ithdra# if former 2rgentine President Nestor Kirchner ()**E-)**(1 #as elected secretar&-general, %rade

interests and e/isting as&mmetries in the !outh 2merican countries are the "rinci"al stumbling bloc5s for total integration, since MERC>!9R , led b& 7ra=il and 2rgentina, #ants to im"ose its commercial interests on the other countries, :ene=uela, #ith influence in some Comunidad 2ndina de Naciones
(C2N1 countries, also #ants to lead the integration "rocess, in 5ee"ing #ith its strengths in the energ& area, If the regional blocs8 trade barriers #ere not enough, ne# obstacles ha3e arisen #ith the indi3idual initiati3es of countries that

are mo3ing a#a& from regional trade and "refer trade agreements #ith the 9! and Euro"e , li5e
Chile, Peru, and Colombia, >ther countries ha3e unilaterall& "ut safeguards on an e/tensi3e list of "roducts to "rotect their domestic industries and the $hard currenc& that began to dr& u" because of the global financial crisis,$ such as Ecuador, #hich has restricted trade #ith its neighbors on more than 0,E** "roducts, %o com"licate the situation further, "roblems on the Colombia-Ecuador border led to a brea5 in di"lomatic relations bet#een the t#o countries, follo#ing Colombia8s bombing of a Fuer=as 2rmadas Re3olucionarias de Colombia (F2RC1 cam" in Ecuadoran territor& (see Noti!ur, )**X-*E-*(1, More recentl&, the Colombian go3ernment8s decision to allo# 9! troo"s to use its militar& bases thre# more fuel onto the fire (see Noti!ur, )**?-*(-E01, In this situation, the !outh 2merican "residents agreed to meet in guito, Ecuador, on 2ug, 0*, ta5ing ad3antage of President Correa8s in3itation to attend his in3estiture for a second term, 2t the meeting, Ecuador became "resident "ro tem of 9N2!9R, %he tense di"lomatic situation and the reBuest b& 3arious 9N2!9R countries that Colombia e/"lain the sco"e of the agreement that it is negotiating #ith the 9!, #hich #ill allo# that countr& to use se3en Colombian militar& bases to monitor the region, "ro3o5ed a reaction from the Colombian go3ernment, It announced that it #ould not attend the meeting, and, at the same time, it Buestioned the choice of Correa to lead 9N2!9R, $Ecuador8s ta5ing o3er as "resident "ro tem of the 9nion de Naciones !uramericanas could lead to the regional organi=ation8s failure because of the tensions that it maintains #ith Colombia,$ said Colombian :ice President Francisco !antos, 9!J %he ele"hant in the room %he meeting in guito too5 "lace #ithout Presidents 2l3aro 9ribe of Colombia or 2lan Garcia of Peru, both seen as allies of 9! "olic&, 7oth countries ha3e negotiated free-trade agreements (F%2s1 #ith the 9! and are in similar "rocesses #ith the Euro"ean 9nion (E91, Dithout their "resence, the issues dealt #ith at the guito meeting #ere not momentous and #ere limited to a series of di"lomatic statements, most notabl& the denunciation of the militar& cou" that ousted @onduran President Manuel ]ela&a, although the statement did not s"ecif& concrete actions to "ressure for his return to "o#er (see NotiCen, )**?-*X-0E1, Faced #ith the e3ident failure of the guito meeting, 7ra=ilian President 4ui= Inacio 4ula da !il3a called for a ne# 9N2!9R meeting, and this time he "ro"osed t#o concrete issues for discussionJ to anal&=e relations #ith the 9!, for #hich he "ro"osed setting u" a meeting bet#een 9N2!9R and 9! President 7arac5 >bama, and to anal&=e the imminent militar& agreement bet#een Colombia and the 9!, %he go3ernments of :ene=uela, 7oli3ia, and Ecuador ha3e e/"ressed their uneBui3ocal o""osition to the installation of 9! militar& bases in Colombia, arguing that this #ould strengthen 9ribe8s bellicose "olicies, In that regard, 4ula #ill tr& to ease the tension at the ne/t meeting, to be held in 2rgentina, but he "oints out that it is necessar& to discuss the militar& issue since the 9! is still interfering in the internal affairs of 3arious countries in the region, 4ula sa&s that the fe#

ad3ances achie3ed and the e/isting climate of confrontation threaten the future of regional integration, $De are going to ha3e to come to an agreement regarding 9N2!9R8s future because #e need to ha3e a cordial
relationshi" among oursel3es, a le3el of trust and sincerit& among us,$ said 4ula, %he Colombian go3ernment has indicated that it might attend a future 9N2!9R meeting, but it insists that signing a militar& agreement #ith the 9! is $a so3ereign act,$ %he 9! militar& bases ha3e become a highl& sensiti3e "olitical issue and ha3e forced the 9! to clarif& its role in Colombia, $De ha3e said 3er& clearl& that #e are not creating or establishing an& bases in Colombia, De are #or5ing #ith our Colombian "artner to tr& to deal #ith a "roblem in the hemis"here, #hich is drug traffic,$ said !tate Ce"artment de"ut& s"o5es"erson Robert Dood, Dood8s e/"lanation does not con3ince :ene=uelan President @ugo Cha3e=, #ho sa&s the agreement could $set off a #ar in !outh 2merican,$ nor does it con3ince 7oli3ian President E3o Morales, #ho accuses the 9! of using the militar& bases $to halt the re3olutionar& "rocesses ta5ing sha"e in 2merica,$ %he initial difficulties and those that ha3e arisen in the short three

&ears of this ne# !outh 2merican integration "rocess ma5e it clear that its consolidation #ill not be eas&, and current circumstances e3en in'icate t at it is not a "ia!le process, 2lthough theoreticall& necessar& for regional de3elo"ment, *NA(*9 as man& more #ea.nesses t an strengt s/ # ic is # at, in the long term, is lea'ing it to#ar' fail&re2 (!ourcesJ 1

A+F Alliance DA *NA(*9 A+F LA Insta!ility

Latin america literally poses no sec&rity t reat Naim $ (Moises, Foreign Polic& no0I( .*-E, .I-( N-C )**+, editor of foreign "olic& maga=ine1 For decades, 4atin 2merica8s #eight in the #orld has been shrin5ing, It is not an economic "o#erhouse, a securit& threat, or a "o"ulation bomb, E3en its tragedies "ale in com"arison to 2frica8s, %he
region #ill not rise until it ends its search for magic formulas, It ma& not ma5e for a good sound bite, but "atience is 4atin 2merica8s biggest deficit of all, 4atin 2merica has gro#n used to li3ing in the bac5&ard of the 9nited !tates, For decades, it has been a region #here the 9,!, go3ernment meddled in local "olitics, fought communists, and "romoted its business interests, E3en if the rest of the #orld #asn8t "a&ing attention to 4atin 2merica, the 9nited !tates occasionall& #as, %hen came !e"tember 00, and e3en the 9nited !tates seemed to tune out, Naturall&, the #orld8s attention centered almost e/clusi3el& on terrorism, the #ars in 2fghanistan, IraB, and 4ebanon, and on the nuclear ambitions of North Korea and Iran, 4atin 2merica became 2tlantis--the lost continent, 2lmost o3ernight, it disa""eared from the ma"s of in3estors, generals, di"lomats, and Fournalists, Indeed, as one commentator recentl& Bui""ed, 4atin 2merica can8t com"ete on the #orld stage in an& as"ect, e3en as a threat, 9nli5e

anti-2mericans else#here, 4atin 2mericans are not #illing to die for the sa5e of their geo"olitical hatreds, 4atin 2merica is a nuclear-#ea"ons free =one, Its onl& #ea"on of mass destruction is cocaine, In contrast to emerging mar5ets li5e India and China, 4atin 2merica is a minor economic "la&er #hose global significance is declining , !ure, a fe# countries e/"ort oil and gas, but onl&
:ene=uela is in the to" league of the #orld8s energ& mar5et, Not e3en 4atin 2merica8s disasters seem to elicit global concern an&more, 2rgentina e/"erienced a massi3e financial stro5e in )**0, and no one abroad seemed to care, 9nli5e "rior crashes, no go3ernment or international financial institution rushed to bail it out, 4atin 2merica doesn8t ha3e 2frica8s famines,

genocides, an @I:-2IC! "andemic, #holesale state failures, or roc5 stars #ho routinel& ado"t its tragedies, 7ono, 7ill Gates, and 2ngelina 'olie #orr& about 7ots#ana, not 7ra=il, 7ut Fust as the fi3e-&ear-old #ar on terror
"ronounced the necessit& of confronting threats #here the& linger, it also underscored the dangers of neglect, 4i5e 2fghanistan, 4atin 2merica sho#s ho# Buic5l& and eas& it is for the 9nited !tates to lose its influence #hen Dashington is distracted b& other "riorities, In both "laces, Dashington8s disinterest "roduced a 3acuum that #as filled b& "olitical grou"s and leaders hostile to the 9nited !tates, No, 4atin 2merica is not churning out Islamic terrorists as 2fghanistan #as during the da&s of the %aliban, In 4atin 2merica, the "o#er ga" is being filled b& a grou" of dis"arate leaders often lum"ed together under the banner of "o"ulism, >n the rare occasions that 4atin 2merican countries do ma5e international ne#s, it8s the election of a so-called "o"ulist, an a""arentl& anti-2merican, anti-mar5et leader, that raises hac5les, @o#e3er, 4atin 2merica8s "o"ulists aren8t a monolith, !ome are #orse for international stabilit& than is usuall& re"orted, 7ut some ha3e the "otential to chart a ne#, "ositi3e course for the region, 9nderl&ing the ascent of these ne# leaders are se3eral real, stubborn threads running through 4atin 2mericans8 frustration #ith the status Buo in their countries, 9nfortunatel&, the 9nited !tates8---and the rest of the #orld8s--lac5 of interest in that region means that the forces that are sha"ing dis"arate "olitical mo3ements in 4atin 2merica are often glossed o3er, misinter"reted, or ignored, 9ltimatel&, though, #hat matters most is not #hat the northern giant thin5s or does as much as #hat half a billion 4atin 2mericans thin5 and do, 2nd in the last cou"le of decades, the #ild s#ings in their "olitical beha3ior ha3e created a highl& unstable terrain #here building the institutions indis"ensable for "rogress or for fighting "o3ert& has become increasingl& difficult, %here is a #a& out, 7ut it8s not the Buic5 fi/ that too man& of 4atin 2merica8s leaders ha3e "romised and that an im"atient "o"ulation demands,

A+F Bac.las DA ,AC

No !ac.las Latin America lo"es D!ama Gran'in 1? (Greg Grandin -- "rofessor of histor& at NG9 -- $EMPIRE8! !ENE!CENCEJ 9,!, Polic& in 4atin 2merica -- Proguest -- Dinter )*0* search,"roBuest,com,"ro/&,lib,umich,edu-doc3ie#-)E())+*?X1 !M %here are no immediate threats to the 9,!, in 4atin 2merica, 2 maForit& of the region8s "olitical elite - e3en most of its current go3erning leftists - share man& of the same 3alues the 9nited !tates claims to embod&, e3en more so follo#ing the election of the first 2frican-2merican "resident, #ho is #ildl& "o"ular in 4atin 2merica, 2s a result, there is no other "lace in the #orld that offers 9,!,
"resident 7arac5 >bama the o""ortunit& to "ut into "lace the 5ind of intelligent foreign "olic& that he and his closest ad3isors, such as 9nited Nations (9N,1 ambassador !usan Rice, belie3e is necessar& to sto" the hemorrhaging of 9,!, "restige - one that #ould both im"ro3e Dashington8s abilit& to de"lo& its man& com"etiti3e ad3antages, #hile remo3ing 5e& "oints of friction,

D!ama a'ministration is #or.ing to#ar's a policy of s are' lea'ers ip Ni!lett 0 (Robin Niblett -- PhC #ith e/"ertise 9K foreign "olic&, 9! foreign "olic&, and economic securit& -- Cirector of the Chatham @ouse -- %he Ro&al Institute of Internatoinal 2ffairs in the 9nited King5dom ###,chathamhouse,org-sites-default-files-"ublic-Research-2mericas-r*)*?usQrole,"df1 !M Curing his inaugural address on )* 'anuar& )**?, 7arac5 >bama declared to ^all other "eo"les and go3ernments #ho are
#atching toda&, c 5no# c that #e are read& to lead once more, In the follo#ing four #ee5s to the "ublication of this re"ort, President >bama has set the 9nited !tates on a course that is meeting #ides"read a""ro3al around the #orld, @e has ordered the closure as soon as "ossible of the GuantAnamo 7a& detention facilities and of other secret facilities outside the 9nited !tates that had so undermined 2mericas international anti-9! narrati3e of its o""onents, @e has a""ointed s"ecial en3o&s

credibilit& #ith its allies and confirmed the for Middle East Peace and to im"lement an integrated strateg& for both 2fghanistan and Pa5istan, @e has offered to ^see5 a ne# #a& for#ard #ith the Muslim #orld as #ell as to ^e/tend a hand to authoritarian go3ernments if the& are #illing ^to unclench ZtheirR fist, @is !ecretar& of !tate, @illar& Clinton, has said that 2merica #ill be more effecti3e if it can ^build a #orld #ith more "artners and fe#er ad3ersaries, 7oth ha3e recogni=ed the 3irtues of "ragmatism o3er ideolog& and the realit& of interde"endence, 2t the core of this ambitious international agenda lies the belief that 2merica must strengthen its "osition of global leadershi" if it is to remain a ^"ositi3e force in the #orld, 7ut the call for a rene#al of 9! leadershi" comes at a time #hen,
as President >bama also recogni=ed during his inauguration, ^the #orld has changed, %his re"ort loo5s at 2mericas future international role from an outside "ers"ecti3e and as5s ho# 2merican global leadershi" might be rethought in the

conte/t of a changed #orld, Its conclusion is that the >bama administration needs to introduce an im"ortant shift in ho# 2merica #ields its "o#er W leading directl& #here its leadershi" is still clearl& needed, but also sharing leadershi" #here "artners ha3e as much or more to offer, su""orting international institutions #here the need for collecti3e res"onse out#eighs the 3alue of 2merican leadershi" and leading b& e/am"le #here collecti3e res"onses are not &et being formed, *( lea'ers ip policies are foc&se' on !&il'ing ne# partners ips an' alliances Ni!lett 0 (Robin Niblett -- PhC #ith e/"ertise 9K foreign "olic&, 9! foreign "olic&, and economic securit& -- Cirector of the Chatham @ouse -- %he Ro&al Institute of Internatoinal 2ffairs in the 9nited King5dom ###,chathamhouse,org-sites-default-files-"ublic-Research-2mericas-r*)*?usQrole,"df1 !M President >bama and !ecretar& Clinton ha3e laid out the ste"s that the 9nited !tates #ill ta5e in order to rene# its leadershi" "osition, !trengthening alliances and institutions, building ne# "artnershi"s, engaging o""onents #here "ossible, tac5ling common global challenges such as climate change and nuclear #ea"ons "roliferation, as #ell as immediate crises in the Middle East and !outh 2sia and tightening the bond bet#een the 9nited !tates internal 3alues and its e/ternal "olicies W these are all laudable goals and 3ital ingredients of a more "ositi3e 2merican international role, Indeed, the&

are ste"s #hich are ad3ocated in the 9!-authored re"orts mentioned abo3e and #hich are also echoed later in this re"ort, Moreo3er, as the 9! re"orts obser3e and as this re"ort also recogni=es, 2merica remains the onl& countr& in the #orld that both as"ires to lead and has the attributes to li3e u" to its as"iration,

A+F Bra6il DA ,AC

Bra6il infl&ence 'oes not ing for Latin America;fo&r reasons Espac an' +&lc in/ 1? - Ral"h @, Es"ach, Ph,C, is a senior research scientist and director of the 4atin 2merican 2ffairs "rogram at CN2s Center for !trategic !tudies, 'oe %ulchin is a 4atin 2mericanist #ith e/traordinaril& broad e/"erience, !enior Fello# in the Me/ico and Central 2merica Program at @ar3ard 9ni3ersit&8s Ca3id Roc5efeller Center for 4atin 2merican !tudies (L7ra=ils Rising Influence and Its Im"lications for >ther 4atin 2merican Nations,M 'une )*0*, htt"J--###,cna,org-sites-default-files-CN2_)*7ra=ils _)*Rise_)*and_)*Im"lications_)*for_)*Neighbors,"df1--@24 2s it has emerged on the global stage, 7ra=il has stri3ed to establish mutuall& su""orti3e strategies at the regional and global le3els, Most im"ortantl&, 7ra=il desires a stable, "eaceful, and economicall& 3ibrant !outh 2merica so that 7rasilia can focus its di"lomatic efforts on establishing its role as a great "o#er , @o#e3er, the reali=ation of this 3ision is com"licated b& se3eral factors #ithin the hemis"hereJ s !ignificant ideological fractures #ithin 4atin 2merica that ma5e acti3e leadershi" "otentiall& treacherous for 7ra=il , #hose traditional "olic& has been to maintain friendl& relations #ith all ten of its neighbors s Resistance to 7ra=ilian leadershi" on the "art of other 4atin 2merican countries, #hich belie3e that 7ra=ils "olicies reflect selfinterest more than a commitment to collecti3e securit& and de3elo"ment s %he #ea5ness of international institutions in the 2mericas, #hich com"licates regional coordination or leadershi" as di"lomatic initiati3es must be "ursued countr& b& countr& s %he "er3asi3e, and in man& #a&s dominant, influence of the 9nited !tates, 2nother com"licating factor , Fust as im"ortant as these e/ternal conditions, is that 7ra=ils foreign "olic& elite remain loc5ed in a debate o3er the nations foreign "olic& strateg&, %here are three general grou"s #ithin this debate, >ne, led in the "ublic arena b& former President Cardoso, en3isions 7ra=ils future as a #orld "o#erHa rule ma5er in the international s&stem, #hose %he current go3ernment under President 4ula includes the t#o other intellectual grou"s, >ne, the Lleftists,M consists of ideologicall& minded former academics and s"ecial ad3isors #ho still adhere to ideas and strategies from the neoMar/ist 4eftist mo3ement of the 0?+*s and 0?(*s, %hese indi3idualsHre"resented b& the Cirector of the Ministr& for !trategic 2ffairs !amuel Pinheiro and "residential ad3isor Marco 2urelio GarciaH tend to be strident anti2mericanists and belie3ers in the logic of !outh-!outh collaboration, %he final grou", #hich #e term the Lrealists,M can be considered as less ideological, more "ragmatic, but eBuall& nationalistic, %hese realists, re"resented b& the current Foreign Minister
international communit& of democratic "o#ers see5ing "eace, non-"roliferation, and free-mar5et-based de3elo"ment throughout the #orld, Celso 2morim and concentrated #ithin the di"lomatic cor"s of Itamarat&, en3ision a 7ra=il acti3e in #orld institutions and see5ing "eace and non"roliferation, but also enFo&ing autonom& b& 3irtue of its strong relations #ith "o#ers around the #orld, including China, Russia, and Iran,

influence #ould flo# from its democratic 3alues, its economic #eight, and its "roducti3e coo"eration #ith other great "o#ers #ithin the 9nited Nations and other institutions, %hese LinternationalistsM #ould li5e to see 7ra=il "artici"ate #ith traditional allies in North 2merica and Euro"e in creating an

Bra6il can ne"er ta.e o"er *( infl&ence in t e region Sor'an/ 14 W PhC from the 4ondon !chool of Economics, former Minister of En3ironmental 2ffairs and %ourism for !outh 2frica (] Pallo, L7rics aiming for no less than a ne# #orld order,M 7usiness Ca& (!outh 2frica1, March )X, )*0E, 7CFM Publishers P%G 4td, 4e/isNe/is1--@24 7ra=il, too, has a di3erse "o"ulation, numericall& dominated b& 2fro-7ra=ilians, but other#ise dominated b& #hites, It li3es in the shado# of the 9!, #hich, in3o5ing the Monroe Coctrine, regards that countr& as "art of its s"here of influence, ConseBuentl&, unli5e tin& Cuba, 7ra=il has been unable to "roFect its "o#er in the region, let alone challenge the 9! on the #orld stage, 7ra=il8s leftist go3ernment has redefined its role and see5s to build ne# transcontinental alliances #ith other de3elo"ing countries, 9ntil recentl&, 7ra=il8s ra"acious ca"italist class "lundered the rainforests and brutall& e/"loited the indigenous "eo"les to near e/tinction , (e"eral !arriers to Bra6ilian egemony )B/ 1, (%he Political 7ouillon, an inde"endent and non-"artisan inter-uni3ersit& Fournal of "olitical anal&sis run b& uni3ersit& students from McGill 9ni3ersit&, Concordia 9ni3ersit&,

9ni3ersit< de Montr<al and 9ni3ersit< du gu<bec e Montreal, LFinall&, 7ecoming 7ra=il,M E-)(-0), htt"J--the"oliticalbouillon,com-en-finall&-becoming-bra=il-, %ashma1
!5e"tical :ie# !ome belie3e, ho#e3er, that the

7RIC! ma& not &et be ca"able of becoming #orld "o#ers, mainl& because of the Dests militar& and di"lomatic muscle, Ces"ite their im"ressi3e economic and regional e/"ansion recentl&, the e/tent to #hich this has been translated effecti3el& into "olitical #eight is still Buestionable, For e/am"le, 7ra=il W e3en if it is no# the si/th largest econom& in the #orld W could not ha3e "roFected its o#n militar& "o#er to inter3ene in 4ib&an theatre, com"ared to the 7ritish or French or an& other N2%> "o#er, or e3en ha3e much of a sa& in the geostrategicall& 3ital Middle East, %he Destern hemis"here is still under the 9,! hegemonic umbrella at least for a #hile, and there are sim"l& limits to 7ra=ilian geo"olitical rise for the time being, Ne3ertheless, it is clear 7ra=il #ill be a strong "ole to be regarded highl& b& other hegemonic "o#ers, Get one of the "roblems, not limited to 7ra=il alone, is the recent deindustriali=ation #hich has led to "rotectionist measures, 9ndermining the idea of a customs union (Mercosur1, 7ra=il has im"osed trade tariffs, Intra-4atin 2merican trade is relati3el& lo# com"ared to intraregional trade else#here, 7ra=il should send a different economic message to its o#n neighbors W that it is committed to economic moderni=ation, before "roFecting its "o#er an& further, 2lso, according to %he Economist, 7ra=il is in the red =one #ith regards to its monetar& maneu3erabilit& and fiscal fle/ibilit&, %he L#iggle-room inde/M offers a rough ran5ing of #hich economies are best "laced to #ithstand another global do#nturn, and 7ra=ils indicators are concerning in that res"ect, Bra6ilian lea'ers ip 'oes not ing %alam&'/ 11 research fello# at the Institute of !ocial !ciences (IC!1 of the 9ni3ersit& of 4isbon, PhC in Political !cience from the Euro"ean 9ni3ersit& Institute (E9I1 in Florence, (2ndres, L2 4eader Dithout Follo#ers6 %he Gro#ing Ci3ergence 7et#een the Regional and Global Performance of 7ra=ilian Foreign Polic&,M 42%IN 2MERIC2N P>4I%IC! 2NC !>CIE%G, u )*00 9ni3ersit& of Miami, M242M9CJ 7R2]I4! F>REIGN P>4ICG, htt"J--americo,usal,es-iberoame-sites-default-files-malamudQbrasilQleaderQ#ithoutQfollo#er s,"df1--@24 In s"ite of its regional "reeminence, 7ra=il has been unable to translate its structural and instrumental resources into effecti3e leadershi", Its "otential follo#ers ha3e not aligned #ith 7ra=ils main foreign "olic& goals, such as its "ursuit of a "ermanent seat on the 9N!C, of the D%> Cirectorshi"-General, or of the IC7 "residenc&, and some ha3e e3en challenged its regional influence , 7& "la&ing the regional card to achie3e global aims, 7ra=il has ended u" in an une/"ected situationJ #hile its regional leadershi" has gro#n on "a"er, in "ractice it has met gro#ing resistance , Get the countr& has gained increasing global recognition, %oda&,
7ra=il is ac5no#ledged as an emergent global "la&er b& the established #orld "o#ers, such as the G-X members and the Euro"ean 9nion, %his article has anal&=ed the mounting mismatch bet#een the regional and global recognition of 7ra=ilian status, Cue to

lasting clea3ages, di3ergent interests, and "o#er ri3alries in !outh 2merica, the mismatch is not li5el& to be bridged an&time soon, Parado/icall&, ho#e3er, if the 7ra=ilian Buest for regional leadershi" has been unsuccessful, "romoting it has been beneficial for 7ra=ils national interests, %his "arado/ has latel& come to the
attention of the countr&s foreign "olic& elite, #hich is increasingl& ad3ocating a more "ragmatic stance based on di3ersified strategies to minimi=e de"endence on a troublesome region (CE7RI-CINCE! )**(1, 2lthough subregional integration has not ceased to be a goal, it is no longer a "riorit& (:ige3ani et al, )**X1, Furthermore, the increasing "lurali=ation of actors #ith a sta5e in foreign "olic& (Cason and Po#er )**?1 ma& also be ma5ing 7ra=il more globall&Has o""osed to regionall&Hsensiti3e, %he

7ra=ilian bid for leadershi" has been hindered b& se3eral factors, #hich can be understood in light of the conce"ts "resented in the first section of this article, %he structural com"onents of its leadershi" "roFect (i,e,, militar& "o#er and economic might1 ha3e been insufficient to caFole or bu& su""ort, es"eciall& facing ri3als such as :ene=uela, the 9nited !tates, and e3en %ai#an, #hich are #illing to gi3e mone& or militar& su""ort to #in o3er undecided follo#ers , %he instrumental com"onents of leadershi" ha3e been either una3ailable or insufficient, 7ra=il is reluctant to build common institutions because it feels the& #ould tie it to unreliable neighbors rather than consolidate regional integration, In terms of ideas and 3alues, its regional strategies loo5 to some neighbors li5e hegemonic incursions rather than enlightened leadershi" based on the "ursuit of shared

interests, 2nd regarding higher education and migrant destinations, the main attractors for most !outh 2merican countries continue to be e/traregional "o#ersN namel&, the 9nited !tates and Euro"e, No rising Bra6il;lac. of inno"ation Bo'man an' Wolfenso n/ 11 - 9,!, secretar& of energ& from )**I to )**?, a 7! from Cornell 9ni3ersit& and a PhC from MI%, #here he #as also associate "rofessor of chemical engineering, 'ames C, Dolfensohn is chairman of Dolfensohn P Com"an&, 44C, chairman of Citigrou"s international ad3isor& board, and ad3iser to Citigrou"s senior management on global strateg& and on international matters, @e is a honorar& trustee of the 7roo5ings Institution, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, Master of 7usiness 2dministration (M721 degree at @ar3ard 7usiness !chool, (LGlobal 7ra=il and 9,!,-7ra=il Relations,M Inde"endent %as5 Force Re"ort No, ++, Council on Foreign Relations, 'ul& 0)th, )*00, htt"J--###,cfr,org-bra=il-global-bra=il-us-bra=il-relations-")I.*(1--@24
Fostering inno3ation and enter"rise is sBuarel& on the domestic and international agenda of the 7ra=ilian go3ernment, Indeed, the Ministr& of !cience and %echnolog& has ac5no#ledged and begun to address 7ra=ils deficit in inno3ation, %he 7ra=ilian go3ernment also recogni=es the im"ortance of technolog& transfer from abroad as an engine of domestic inno3ation and gro#th, %rends are "ositi3e as, o3er the "ast fi3e &ears, the 7ra=ilian go3ernment has mo3ed to#ard the commerciali=ation of inno3ation, shifting a#a& from the state-based in3estment in science and technolog& that characteri=ed the militar& era and has since remained, For e/am"le, the Rousseff administration has mo3ed to "ri3ati=e 7ra=ils ci3il a3iation industr&, #hich has traditionall& been controlled b& the militar&, Research and de3elo"ment (RPC1 are underfunded in 7ra=il relati3e to other countries, and the

funding that is in "lace does not "roduce results at the rates seen else#here, 0) Notabl&, 7ra=il and
!outh Korea had similar le3els of GCP "er ca"ita thirt& &ears ago, %oda&, ho#e3er, !outh Korea has gro#n to be more than three times richer than 7ra=il (in "urchasing "o#er "arit& terms1, !outh Korea in3ests more than E "ercent of its GCP in inno3ationN in 7ra=il the figure is Fust o3er 0 "ercent, 7ra=ils historic and current com"arati3e ad3antage in commodities has itself distorted the incenti3e structure for inno3ation, In )***, manufactured goods accounted for nearl& +* "ercent of 7ra=ils e/"orts, and "rimar& goods totaled Fust o3er )* "ercent, In )**?, "rimar& goods o3ertoo5 manufactured goodsHa re3ersal that star5l& illustrates the gro#ing com"etiti3e disad3antage, %he sheer 3olume of foreign demand, from India and es"eciall& China, for ra# goods li5e so&a, iron ore, and beef dri3es 7ra=ils gro#ing em"hasis on commodities e/"orting, %he Bualit& of science education and 5no#-ho# in 7ra=ilian academia is strong, but the gulf bet#een the academ& and ideas reaching the mar5et is large, 2t uni3ersities, leading academics tend to 3ie# a disconnection bet#een the scholarl& research the& conduct and the commercial a""lication of their results, 2cademia is not 3ie#ed as an instrument of economic de3elo"ment as it is in 7oston or !an Francisco, for e/am"le, 7ra=ils

inefficient and com"le/ regulator& en3ironmentHalong #ith "oor infrastructure, inadeBuate education, high and com"le/ ta/es, and rigid labor reBuirementsHma5e it costl& and difficult to commerciali=e ne# technolog& and start ne# businesses in 7ra=il, 2ccording to the Dorld 7an5, it ta5es 0)*
da&s to register a business in 7ra=il, com"ared #ith t#ent&-t#o in Chile and Fust si/ in the 9nited !tates, 2 tradition of hea3& state in3ol3ement in industr& from the time of 7ra=ils inde"endence, through industriali=ation, and u" to the "resent da& has led 7ra=ilians to loo5 to the state for guidance in #hat and ho# to "roduce, 7ra=ils Financing 2genc& for !tudies and ProFects (FINEP, associated #ith the Ministr& of !cience and %echnolog&1 has an annual budget of a""ro/imatel& [),I billion to fund scientific and technological de3elo"ment, from RPC for large com"anies to local inno3ation s&stems, 2nnuall&, FINEP "ro3ides financing for three thousand com"anies in 7ra=il (both domestic and foreign1, the maForit& of #hich are start-u"s, Moreo3er, some "arastatal com"anies ha3e themsel3es been sources of inno3ation and demonstrate 7ra=ils abilit& to become a #orld-class inno3ator in certain scientific and technical sectors, 7ra=il increased its agricultural "roducti3it& 3ia Embra"a and built the #orlds second-largest biofuels industr&, as a result of Pro-alcool, the go3ernments ethanol "romotion "rogram, !tate-controlled Petrobras has li5e#ise emerged at the forefront of dee"-sea oil drilling technolog&, %he Fundaypo >s#aldo Cru= (Fiocru=1, a state-funded "ublic health institution, and its Farmanguinhos and 7io-Manguinhos "rograms in "articular, are #orld-class e/am"les of inno3ation in the health sector, %hese successes suggest that state-dri3en industrial "olic& can &ield significant results on a large scale, although economists are di3ided o3er the long-term benefits of state-directed industrial "olicies, 2lthough 7ra=il lac5s a strong

culture of "ri3ate inno3ation , indi3idual entre"reneurshi" is commonHone of e3er& eight adults has created his or her
o#n business, one of the highest rates in the #orld, though man& of these businesses are li5el& outside the formal econom&, Conclusions and Recommendations %he %as5 Force finds that lo# le3els of inno3ation in 7ra=il and a dearth

of mechanisms needed to foster inno3ation ham"er the countr&s "otential o3er the long run, 0E %he legac& of hea3& state inter3ention in industr& #ill be hard to o3ercome, and, indeed, man& 7ra=ilians "refer the status Buo, %hough a drastic shift in the culture of inno3ation is unli5el& in the near term, the 7ra=ilian go3ernment can "ursue ste"s to encourage small and medium-si=ed businesses b& beginning to
sim"lif& go3ernment bureaucrac& and b& "romoting "ri3ate-sector collaboration #ith the nations uni3ersities,

No rising Bra6il;str&ct&ral c allenges (te#art/ 11 - 2rm& Com"troller Colonel, has ser3ed in 7osnia, German&, 'a"an, as #ell as dut& on the 2rm&, 'oint, and >ffice of the !ecretar& of Cefense !taffs at the Pentagon (:ance, LIs

7ra=il 2ctuall& Read& to be a Dorld Economic Po#er6,M Center for !trategic 4eadershi", 9,!, 2rm& Dar College, :olume 0E-00, 'ul& )*00, htt"J--###,csl,arm&,mil-usacsl-"ublications-IP0EQ00,"df1--@24 Ces"ite disci"lined go3ernment "olic& and a booming econom&, 7ra=il has not &et sol3ed all its "roblems and still faces considerable social ills, %he go3ernment and the "eo"le continue to struggle #ith dismal "o3ert&, soaring crime, limited infrastructure to facilitate future gro#th, and a no3ice ca"abilit& in handling trade dis"utes, First, des"ite reducing the "ercentage of the "o"ulation subsisting belo# the "o3ert& line, a
significant "ortion of the "o"ulation li3es in isolated rural 3illages or urban ^fa3elas,0E Estimates of more than E+ million li3e in these 3ast urban slums or shant& to#ns, on the outs5irts of 7ra=ils metro"olises, #ithout access to clean #ater, electricit& or sustainable housing,0. !econd, an anal&sis conducted b& the 4ibrar& of Congress states, Lthe s5e#ed distribution of income in 7ra=il, one of the most uneBual in the #orld, ma& be "artiall& res"onsible for an endemic and increasing "roblem of non"olitical crime,M0I Roberto Ramos, CE> of %he :io Collecti3e, attributes the high crime rate to L3iolence #rought b& drugs,M0+ %he 9,!, !tate Ce"artment issues caution to 2mericans 3isiting 7ra=il, notingJ Lc crime throughout 7ra=il has reached 3er& high

le3els, 7ra=ils murder rate is more than four times higher than that of the 9,!,M0( Ne/t,

Mr, 7iato summari=es the current status of 7ra=ilian infrastructureJ L%he dearth of trans"ort, communications and energ& lin5s goes a long #a& to e/"laining the regions long histor& of economic fragmentation and meager trade, E3en toda&, 4atin 2merica has no#here as dense an infrastructure grid as that enFo&ed b& the 9nited !tates or Destern Euro"e in the mid-0?th centur&,M0X Dhile the a#ard of both the Dorld Cu" and the >l&m"ic Games "ro3ided the im"etus for massi3e infrastructure im"ro3ements, man& of #hich #ill ha3e use after the com"etitions, these "lans ma& "ro3e too ambitious for the 7ra=ilian go3ernment, 4egal, business and labor entities still need to be o3ercome in order to ensure construction is com"leted on time, Instead, these e3ents ma& &et end u" "ro3iding a ^blac5 e&e for the go3ernment and the "eo"le collecti3el&, 2ccording to a Reuters in3estigation, the more than [0 trillion in construction "roFectsJ Lcno# seem li5el& to fall #ell short of President Cilma Rousseffs ambitions, Numerous high-"rofile "roFects are falling 3ictim

to a long list of "roblems including endemic corru"tion, red ta"e, insufficient funds and W abo3e all W a glaring lac5 of leadershi" and 5no#-ho#,M 0? %he in3estigators also note that these shortfalls are not limited to President Rousseffs critics, LPaulo Resende, one of the countr&s to" inde"endent infrastructure e/"erts, "leads #ith #orld in3estors to sto" treating 7ra=il li5e an ine3itable success stor& , @e sa&s the go3ernments current "roFections are ^totall& unrealistic and estimates that fe#er than half of the "lanned #or5s #ill be com"leted on time,M )* Dhile "o3ert&, crime, corru"tion and inefficient go3ernment institutions are not e/clusi3e to 7ra=il, in order to be considered among the to"-tier of de3elo"ed nations, it must redouble its efforts to combat these social ills and strengthen the effecti3eness of its go3ernmental bodies, Finall&, the go3ernment of 7ra=il has recentl& sho#n its limited s5ills in dealing #ith international trade dis"utes, 9"set b& #hat the& "ercei3e as continued Chinese currenc& mani"ulation, L"rom"ted 7ra=ils finance minister,
Guido Mantega, to com"lain in >ctober )*0*, that his countr& #as a "otential casualt& of a ^currenc& #ar,M)0 2""arentl& unable to counter the effect on 7ra=ilian goods of #hat the 7ra=ilians identif& as an under3alued Chinese Renminbi, on the e3e of the 2"ril )*00 7RIC session in China, President Rousseff announced the a""lication of Lim"ort tariffs on s"ecific goods

from China and the 9nited !tates, the latest measures to hel" stem a flood of chea" im"orts that is eroding the countr&s trade balance,M)) 2""l&ing ne# tariffs is not a lasting solution, merel& a 5nee-Fer5 reaction that stifles trade bet#een nations and further globali=ation, Critics also lash bac5 at President Rousseff, claiming, Lc a rising ta/ burden and lo# "roducti3it& at home are eBuall& to blame for the falling com"etiti3eness of 4atin 2mericas largest econom&M)E If 7ra=il desires to be among the #orlds economic leaders, it should #or5 to create
lasting solutions, not resort to retaliator& measures,

No Bra6ilian egemonic rise --- t ey lac. ar' po#er reso&rces H&rrell/ 1? (2ndre#, Montague 7urton Professor of International Relations, 7alliol College at the 9ni3ersit& of >/ford, LRising !tates, Rising InstitutionsJ Challenges for Global Go3ernance,M "g, 0.0-0.), %ashma1 9nli5e India or China, 7ra=il does not ha3e the hard-"o#er resources to claim status #ithin a more traditionall& Great Po#erWcentric concert or club, %he more international societ& mo3es to#ard Dest"halia, the more serious is the dilemma for 7ra=ilian foreign "olic&, It is true that 7ra=ils natural resources and en3ironmental goods are im"ortant in an age of geo"olitical com"etition and neo-Malthusian resource
conflicts, Not#ithstanding the concentration on soft "o#er, it is also #orth noting that the "ast fi3e &ears ha3e seen the first glimmering of a more focused discussion of the lin5s bet#een foreign "olic& and militar& strateg&, es"eciall& #ithin the region, %he reassessment of the im"ortance of nuclear technolog& and "lans to de3elo" a nuclear-"o#ered submarine also "oint in this direction, 7ut it is "recisel& in such a #orld that the limits on 7ra=ils hard material "o#er

ca"abilities come shar"l& into focus, %hese limits a""l& both to the countr&s ca"acit& to be a "la&er in core maFor "o#er relations an' to its role as a regional po#er2

(prea'ing resentment in t e region an' lac. of 'irection ero'e Bra6ilian lea'ers ip ( ifter/ 1, (Michael, President of the Inter-2merican Cialogue, 2dFunct Professor of 4atin 2merican !tudies at Georgeto#n 9ni3ersit&8s !chool of Foreign !er3ice, L%he !hifting 4andsca"e of 4atin 2merican Regionalism,M Current @istor&, :olume 000, Issue (.), Februar& )*0), "g, I+-+0, ProBuest, %ashma1 7ut it is not hard to discern s"reading resentment among some of 7ra=il8s !outh 2merican neighbors - a natural "roduct of increasingl& mar5ed "o#er as&mmetries in the continent, 2s %he
Ne# Gor5 %imes noted in a No3ember )*00 re"ort, some of the misgi3ings 3oiced b& 7ra=il8s neighbors ha3e echoes of longstanding grie3ances le3eled at the 9nited !tates, including hea3&handed tactics, and dictating rather than negotiating as eBual "artners,

>ther common com"laints include 7ra=il8s failure to consult adeBuatel& #ith its neighbors before it ta5es stands at global meetings, 2lso, other !outh 2merican nations tend to identif& more closel& #ith $4atin 2merica$ than 7ra=il does, and are therefore uneas& #ith #hat the& 3ie# as 7ra=ilians8 focus on !outh 2merica at times to the e/clusion of the rest of the region, including !"anish-s"ea5ing
Me/ico, 7ra=il, acutel& a#are of such sentiments, see5s to mollif& its neighbors8 concerns, often resorting to multilateral instruments, Regional mechanisms li5e 9N2!9R are in "art designed to smooth the rough edges that ine3itabl& accom"an& the differentials in "o#er on man& crucial dimensions bet#een 7ra=il and its neighbors, Ces"ite its dominant role, ho#e3er, 7ra=il

has no discernible agenda for regional go3ernance, 2nd it is "robabl& a stretch to refer to #hat is ta5ing "lace as $integration$ in an& strict sense of the term, Rather, there is a mo3e to#ard increased coo"eration and "olitical dialogue, #hich constitute the s"irit and tenor of $regionalism,$ but #ithout an& serious attem"t to cede so3ereignt&, #hich is the essence of integration, In fact, careful e/amination of the "erformance and
record of subregional grou"ings to date raises Buestions about the "otential effecti3eness of more far-reaching regional arrangements, Mercosur, #hich #as to ser3e as a customs union in3ol3ing 7ra=il, 2rgentina, 9rugua&, and Paragua&, #itnessed a Fum" in trade in the 0??*s, but o3er time its functioning has become "roblematic, Protectionist "ractices ha3e introduced considerable strain #ithin the bloc, In addition, Mercosur8s inabilit& to resol3e a rancorous dis"ute bet#een 2rgentina and 9rugua& o3er the o"eration of a "a"er mill on their border e/"osed serious limitations in its effecti3eness, Get, for all of its shortcomings, Mercosur is generall& regarded as less troubled than other subregional grou"ings in 4atin 2merica, For e/am"le, the 2ndean Communit& of Nations, #hich has e/isted since 0?+?, has been ri3en b& "olitical differences and high le3els of mistrust, >ther subregional arrangements face similar obstacles, In this conte/t, some 4atin 2merican countries ha3e intensified

bilateral ties #ith economic "o#erhouses li5e 7ra=il - !&t a"e sim&ltaneo&sly p&rs&e' options to offset an& one nation8s e@cessi"e infl&ence, %he case of Colombia is "articularl& telling, From the
start of his "residenc& in 2ugust )*0*, 'uan Manuel !antos has assigned a high "riorit& to reengaging #ith !outh 2merica, from #hich Colombia had become relati3el& isolated during the 9ribe administration, 9ribe had concentrated on his countr&8s battle against domestic insurgents and had, as a result, in3ested hea3il& in culti3ating Dashington to ensure continued su""ort,

A+F Bra6il DA *2(2 Hegemony +&rn

No positi"e conse1&ence to rising Bra6il !&t Bra6il regional po#er .ills *( egemony (oares 'e Lima an' Hirst/ $ - PhC in Political !cience from :anderbilt 9ni3ersit& (0?X+1, Currentl& she is a "rofessor at the Institute of !ocial and Political !tudies (IE!P-9ER'1 and coordinator of the !outh 2merican Politics >bser3ator&, >P!2-9ER' (Maria and Monica, L7ra=il as an intermediate state and regional "o#erJ action, choice and res"onsibilities,M International 2ffairs, )**+, htt"J--disci"linas,stoa,us",br-"luginfile,"h"-.E0*E-modQresource-content-0-7ra=il_)*as _)*an_)*intermediate_)*state_)*and_)*regional_)*"o#er_)*-_)*action,_)*"o#er _)*and_)*res"onsabilities,"df1--@24 9!W7ra=il relations ha3e gone through different "hases, oscillating bet#een ^good and ^cool #ithout e3er ti""ing into o"en hostilit&, %he t#o states ha3e shared a notion of ^limited di3ergence #hich, #hile al#a&s a3oiding o"en confrontation, has resulted in frustrations on both sides that ha3e long dominated their relationshi", 9!W7ra=il relations ha3e faced c&clical crises of e/"ectations caused b& erroneous calculations on both sides, Ne3ertheless, all through the t#entieth centur&, bilateral relations "la&ed a crucial role in

7ra=ils foreign affairs as #ell as in the 9! hemis"heric agenda, %hough 9!W7ra=il relations ha3e al#a&s been dominated b& an intergo3ernmental agenda, non-go3ernmental actors ha3e recentl& e/"anded their "resence and gro#n in im"ortance, NG>s, cultural and educational entities, as #ell as a di3erse set of "ri3ate economic interests, all no# contribute to a com"le/ and increasingl& intense bilateral interaction, 2s 9!W7ra=il relations ha3e become more com"le/ on both sides ,

militar&, economic, "olitical and cultural interests ha3e led to a more o"en agenda and introduced a broader range of concerns and "ressures, For the 9nited !tates, the im"ortance of 7ra=il in #orld "olitics and international securit& is small, es"eciall& #hen com"ared to crucial allies such as Canada and the 9K, or to other states such as German&, 'a"an and Russia, For 7ra=il, the "icture is 3er& different, 7ra=il 5ee"s a "ermanent #atch on the 9nited !tates and #hat it does in #orld "olitics, and its foreign "olic& decisions consistentl& in3ol3e an assessment of the costs and benefits of con3ergence #ith or di3ergence from the 9!, !uch caution has increased in the uni"olar #orld, "articularl& since !e"tember 00, Cifferences
bet#een 7ra=il and the 9nited !tates o3er the latters inter3ention in #orld and regional crises ha3e been 3isible in such e"isodes as the Gulf Dar (0??01, the crisis in @aiti (0??+1 and the Koso3o traged& (0??X1, In all cases, the 9! #ould ha3e #elcomed 7ra=ils full su""ort, In summar&, stateto-state "olitical relations bet#een the 9nited !tates and 7ra=il "rimaril& aim for "rudent coe/istence, "ossible collaboration and minimal collision, Dhile the 9nited !tates mo3es ahead to#ards the

consolidation of an uncontested "o#er "osition, 7ra=il searches for a secure and legitimate economic and "olitical "latform in !outh 2merica, 7ra=ils economic relations #ith the 9nited !tates toda& are

far more com"le/ than the& #ere E* &ears ago, co3ering a multifaceted set of trade negotiations and financial-monetar& "ressures, 7ilateral trade de3elo"ments ha3e become ine/tricabl& lin5ed to multilateral trade dis"utes carried for#ard at the D%> and to regional trade negotiations, From the beginning of the 4ula administration more inno3ations #ere e/"ected in interstate regional trade negotiations than in the relationshi" #ith "ri3ate in3estors, the ban5ing s&stem and the Dashington-based multilateral credit institutions, Curing the first &ear of the 4ula administration the Free %rade of the 2mericas (F%221 negotiations became the crucial terrain of bilateral relations, and an increasingl& fragile one, %hrough )**EW)**., as both countries co-chaired the "rocess, the F%22 negotiations lost their #a& and turned into a 9!WMercosur battlefield, fragmenting into sets of "arallel negotiations bet#een Dashington and the other subregional blocs (Caribbean, Central 2merica and 2ndean communit&1, Concerns #ere raised

in the 9!, albeit discreetl&, regarding the "ossibilit& that a more acti3e 7ra=il could assemble !outh 2merica into a single bloc that #ould destabili=e Dashingtons "re-eminence in the hemis"here, 2s 7ra=il aims to become more acti3e in regional affairs, clashes #ith the 9! in regional trade and securit& issues tend to "olitici=e 9! hemis"heric affairs, and the idea that 7ra=il could be forging a unified regional front in negotiations #ith the 9nited !tates has gained some im"etus #ithin !outh 2merican di"lomatic and "olitical circles, In fact, ho#e3er, the inauguration of
the 4ula administration has led to a more "ositi3e character in the sha"e and direction of 9!W7ra=il relations, For 7ra=il, it is not eas& to deal #ith the constraints im"osed b& the "erennial status of !outh 2merica as a 9! s"here of influence,

*( primacy pre"ents glo!al conflict 'iminis ing po#er creates a "ac&&m t at ca&ses transition #ars in m&ltiple places Broo.s et al 14 Z!te"hen G, 7roo5s is 2ssociate Professor of Go3ernment at Cartmouth College,G, 'ohn I5enberr& is the 2lbert G, Milban5 Professor of Politics and International 2ffairs at Princeton 9ni3ersit& in the Ce"artment of Politics and the Doodro# Dilson !chool of Public and International 2ffairs, @e is also a Global Eminence !cholar at K&ung @ee 9ni3ersit&,Dilliam C, Dohlforth is the Caniel Debster Professor in the Ce"artment of Go3ernment at Cartmouth College, LCon8t Come @ome, 2mericaJ %he Case against RetrenchmentM, Dinter )*0E, :ol, E(, No, E, Pages (I0,htt"J--###,mit"ressFournals,org-doi-abs-0*,00+)-I!ECQaQ**0*(, GCI FileR 2 core "remise of dee" engagement is that it "re3ents the emergence of a far more dangerous global securit& en3ironment, For one thing, as noted abo3e, the 9nited !tates o3erseas "resence gi3es it the le3erage to restrain "artners from ta5ing "ro3ocati3e action, Perha"s more im"ortant, its core alliance commitments also deter states #ith

as"irations to regional hegemon& from contem"lating e/"ansion and ma5e its "artners more secure, reducing their incenti3e to ado"t solutions to their securit& "roblems that threaten others and thus sto5e securit& dilemmas, %he contention that engaged 9,!, "o#er dam"ens the baleful effects of anarch& is consistent #ith influential 3ariants of realist theor&, Indeed, arguabl& the scariest "ortra&al of the #ar-"rone #orld that #ould emerge absent the L2merican PacifierM is "ro3ided in the #or5s of 'ohn Mearsheimer, #ho forecasts dangerous multi"olar regions re"lete #ith securit& com"etition, arms races, nuclear "roliferation and associated "re3enti3e #artem"tations, regional ri3alries, and e3en runs at regional hegemon& and full-scale great "o#er #ar, () @o# do retrenchment ad3ocates, the bul5 of #hom are realists, discount this benefit6 %heir arguments are com"licated, but t#o ca"ture most of the 3ariationJ (01 9,!, securit& guarantees are not necessar& to "re3ent dangerous ri3alries and conflict in EurasiaN or ()1 "re3ention of ri3alr& and conflict in Eurasia is not a 9,!, interest, Each res"onse is connected to a different theor& or set of theories, #hich ma5es sense gi3en that the #hole debate hinges on a com"le/ future counterfactual (#hat #ould ha""en to Eurasias securit& setting if the 9nited !tates trul& disengaged61, 2lthough a certain ans#er is im"ossible, each of these res"onses is nonetheless a #ea5er argument for retrenchment than ad3ocates ac5no#ledge, %he first res"onse flo#s from defensi3e realism as #ell as other international relations theories that discount the conflict-generating "otential of anarch& under contem"orar& conditions, (E Cefensi3e realists maintain that the high e/"ected costs of territorial conBuest, defense dominance, and an arra& of "olicies and "ractices that can be used credibl& to signal benign intent, mean that Eurasias maFor states could manage regional multi"olarit& "eacefull& #ithout the2merican "acifier, Retrenchment #ould be a bet on this scholarshi", "articularl& in regions #here the 5inds of stabili=ers that nonrealist theories "oint toHsuch as democratic go3ernance or dense institutional lin5agesHare either absent or #ea5l& "resent, %here are three other maFor bodies of scholarshi", ho#e3er, that might gi3e decisionma5ers "ause before ma5ing this bet, First is regional e/"ertise, Needless to sa&, there is no consensus on the net securit& effects of 9,!, #ithdra#al, Regarding each region, there are o"timists and "essimists, Fe# e/"erts e/"ect a return of intense great "o#er com"etition in a "ost-2merican Euro"e, but man& doubt Euro"ean go3ernments #ill "a& the "olitical costs of increased E9 defense coo"eration and the budgetar& costs of increasing militar& outla&s, (. %he result might be

Euro"e that is inca"able of securing itself from 3arious threats that could be destabili=ing #ithin the region and be&ond (e,g,, a regional conflict a5in to the 0??*s 7al5an #ars1, lac5s ca"acit& for global securit& missions in #hich 9,!, leaders might #ant Euro"ean "artici"ation, and is 3ulnerable to the influence of outside rising "o#ers, Dhat about the other "arts of Eurasia #here the 9nited !tates has a substantial militar& "resence6 Regarding the Middle East, the balance begins tos#ing to#ard "essimists concerned that states currentl& bac5ed b& Dashington H notabl& Israel, Eg&"t, and !audi 2rabiaHmight ta5e actions u"on 9,!, retrenchment that #ould intensif& securit& dilemmas, 2nd concerning East 2sia, "essimismregarding the regions "ros"ects #ithout the 2merican "acifier is "ronounced, 2rguabl& the "rinci"al concern e/"ressed b& area e/"erts is that 'a"an and !outh Korea are li5el& to o!tain a n&clear capacity and increase their militar& commitments, #hich could sto5e a 'esta!ili6ing reaction from C ina , It is notable that during the Cold Dar, both !outh Korea and %ai#an mo3ed to
a obtain a nuclear #ea"ons ca"acit& and #ere onl& constrained from doing so b& astill-engaged 9nited !tates, (I %he second bod& of scholarshi" casting doubt on the bet on defensi3e realisms sanguine "ortra&al is all of the research that undermines its conce"tion of state "references, Cefensi3e realisms o"timism about #hat #ould ha""en if the 9nited !tates retrenched is 3er& much de"endent on its"articularHand highl& restricti3eHassum"tion about state "referencesN once #e rela/ this assum"tion, then much of its basis for o"timism 3anishes, !"ecificall&, the "rediction of "ost-2merican tranBuilit& throughout Eurasia rests on the assum"tion that securit& is the onl& rele3ant state "reference, #ith securit& defined narro#l& in terms of "rotection from 3iolent e/ternal attac5s on the homeland, 9nder that assum"tion, the securit& "roblem is largel& sol3ed as soon as offense and defense are clearl& distinguishable, and offense is e/tremel& e/"ensi3e relati3e to defense, 7urgeoning

research across the social and other sciences, ho#e3er,undermines that core assum"tionJ states ha3e "references not onl& for securit& but also for "restige, status , and other aims, and the&engage in trade-offs among the 3arious obFecti3es, (+ In addition, the& define securit& not Fust in terms of territorial "rotection but in 3ie# of man& and 3aried milieu goals , It follo#s that e3en states that are relati3el& secure ma& ne3ertheless engage in highl& com"etiti3e beha3ior, Em"irical studies sho# that this is indeed sometimes the case, (( In sum, a bet on a benign "ostretrenchment Eurasia is a bet that leaders of maFor countries #ill ne3er allo# these nonsecurit& "references to influence their strategic choices, %o the degree that these bodies of scholarl& 5no#ledge ha3e "redicti3e le3erage, 9,!, retrenchment #ould result in a significant deterioration in the securit& en3ironment in at least some of the #orlds 5e& regions, De ha3e alread& mentioned the third, e3en more alarming bod& of scholarshi", >ffensi3e realism "redicts that the #ithdra#al of the 2merican "acifier #ill &ield either a com"etiti3e regional multi"olarit& com"lete #ith associated insecurit&, arms racing, crisis instabilit&, nuclear "roliferation , and the li5e, or bids for regional hegemon&, #hich ma& be be&ond the ca"acit& of local great "o#ers to contain (and #hich in an& case #ould generate intensel& com"etiti3e beha3ior, "ossibl& including regional great "o#er #ar1,

A+F Bra6il DA 9elations +&rn

Bra6ilian rise .ills *(-Bra6ilian relations Wigell/ 11 W Researcher at the Finnish Institute of International 2ffairs, Global !ecurit& Programme, focusing on 4atin 2merican "olitics, PhC, 4ondon !chool of Economics, )*00 (Mi5ael, L2!!ER%I:E 7R2]I4J 2N EMERGING P>DER 2NC I%! IMP4IC2%I>N!, FII2 7RIEFING P2PER X) s Ma& )*00, %he Finnish Institute of International 2ffairs, ###,fiia,fi-assets-"ublications-b"X),"df1--@24 Bra6ilCs more asserti"e foreign policy as ca&se' fric tion in its relations #it t e *nite' (tates, Indeed, under 4ula, 7ra=il assumed a series of "ostures "ercei3ed as Lunhel"fulM b& the 7ush and >bama administrations, 7ra=il 3oiced strong criticism of the 9!s unilateral inter3entions, such as that in IraB, It also critici=ed "lans to e/"and the 9! militar& "res ence in Colombia as #ell as in @aiti for the "ur"ose of disaster reco3er&, and refused to su""ort the 9! "osition o3er the @onduras
affair follo#ing the ousting of President ]ela&a in 'une )**?, 4ulas embrace of Mahmoud 2hmadineFad and the nuclear deal he hel"ed bro5er #ith Iran enraged the >bama administration as #ell as the E9, #ho argued that it enabled Iran to em"lo& a dela&ing tactic to a3oid 9N sanctions, #hile continuing to de3elo" a nuclear #ea"on, >ther "ostures such as the courting of Cubas Castro brothers, #arning the !tates of strong 7ra=ilian reactions if the 9! tried to destabili=e :ene=uelan President @ugo ChA3e=, and organi=ing the initiati3e for 4atin 2merican countries to recogni=e Palestine as a so3ereign state according to its 0?+( borders also formed "art of 4ulas more inde"endent foreign "olic&, through #hich he sought to boost multilateralism and car3e out a more autonomous and "roacti3e role for 7ra=il in international "olitics, Cruciall&, 7ra=ils efforts to "romote regional

integration ha3e deliberatel& e/cluded the 9nited !tates, 4ula reFected the F%22 (Free %rade 2rea of the 2mericas1 sought b& the 9!, Instead, initiati3es such as 9N2!9R and the e/"ansion of Mercosur to include countries li5e :ene=uela #ere designed to cut loose from restricti3e trade agreements and undercut 9! hegemon& in the region, 7ra=il has also 3oiced strong criticism of 2mericas handling of the financial crisis, accusing it of triggering a Lcurrenc& #arM through its "olic& of Buantitati3e easing, #hile dis"utes o3er trade
issues such as the 9! tariff on ethanol and its farm subsidies remain unresol3ed, 7ra=ils asserti3eness does not, ho#e3er, mean it is ado"ting the abrasi3e st&le of :ene=uelas ChA3e=, %o be sure, #ithin the Itamarat&, 7ra=ils foreign office, LautonomistsM ha3e become the dominant grou" of "olic&ma5ers,. %he& ha3e

reser3ations about 9! hegemon& in the region and #ant to boost the autonom& of 7ra=ilian actions, 7ut the& are ultimatel& "ragmatists #ho, 3ia engagement

and negotiation, rather than b& direct confrontation, #ant to create a fa3ourable conte/t for 7ra=ils rise, Regional and international multilateralism is seen as the main instrument for curbing 9! hegemon& and im"ro3ing 7ra=ils relati3e "osition in the global "o#er structure,

*( Bra6il relations ., sol"e %i''le Eastern oil 'epen'ence Wigell/ 11 W Researcher at the Finnish Institute of International 2ffairs, Global !ecurit& Programme, focusing on 4atin 2merican "olitics, PhC, 4ondon !chool of Economics, )*00 (Mi5ael, L2!!ER%I:E 7R2]I4J 2N EMERGING P>DER 2NC I%! IMP4IC2%I>N!, FII2 7RIEFING P2PER X) s Ma& )*00, %he Finnish Institute of International 2ffairs, ###,fiia,fi-assets-"ublications-b"X),"df1--@24 %he 9! has much to gain from a closer relationshi" #ith 7ra=il , 7ra=ils gro#ing economic and di"lomatic clout "ro3ides a strong incenti3e for the 9! to im"ro3e relations , 2s the 9! loo5s for #a&s to boost its e/"ort industr& in the #a5e of the financial crisis, closer economic coo"eration #ith a booming 7ra=il loo5s increasingl& attracti3e, 9! com"anies see great o""ortunities in 7ra=ils large and e/"anding consumer mar5et,
%he& also #ant to enter the burgeoning mar5et forming around 7ra=ils massi3e natural gas and oil disco3eries, as #ell as the 3ast business o""ortunities associated #ith its u"coming organi=ation of the )*0. Dorld Cu" and the )*0+ >l&m"ic Games, 2s 7ra=il

is set to become a maFor energ& "la&er #ithin the ne/t ten &ears, it also "ro3ides an o""or tunit& for the 9! to reduce its de"endence on oil im"orts from the 3olatile Middle East , 2lso, closing an& ne# deal on international trade #ill reBuire the coo"eration of 7ra=il , as demonstrated b& the failed Coha
Ce3elo"ment Round,

Dil 'epen'ence ca&ses e@tinction

Len'man/ > (!te"hen, reno#ned author and research associate at the Center for Research on Globali=ation, LResource Dars - Can De !ur3i3e %hem6M, 'ul& )**(, htt"J--###,rense,com-general(+--resrouce,htm1 bbb%his card edited to remo3e holocaust rhetoric #hich #e do not endorse Dith the #orld8s energ& su""lies finite, the 9! hea3il& de"endent on im"orts, and $"ea5 oil$ near or a""roaching, $securit&$ for 2merica means assuring a sustainable su""l& of #hat #e can8t do #ithout, It includes #aging #ars to get it, "rotect it, and defend the maritime trade routes o3er #hich it tra3els, %hat means energ&8s "artnered #ith "redator& Ne# Dorld >rder globali=ation, militarism, #ars, ecological rec5lessness, and no# an e/tremist 9! administration #illing to ris5 2rmageddon for #orld dominance, Central to its "lan is first controlling essential resources e3er&#here, at an& cost , starting #ith oil and #here most of it is located in the Middle East and Central 2sia, %he Ne# $Great Game$ and Perils From It %he ne# $Great Game8s$ begun, but this time the sta5es are greater than e3er as e/"lained abo3e, %he old one
lasted nearl& 0** &ears "itting the 7ritish em"ire against %sarist Russia #hen the issue #asn8t oil, %his time, it8s the 9! #ith hel" from Israel, 7ritain, the Dest, and satellite states li5e 'a"an, !outh Korea and %ai#an challenging Russia and China #ith toda&8s #ea"ons and technolog& on both sides ma5ing earlier ones loo5 li5e to&s, 2t sta5e is more than oil, It8s "lanet earth #ith

sur3i3al of all life on it issue number one t#ice o3er, Resources and #ars for them means militarism is increasing, "eace declining, and the "lanet8s abilit& to sustain life front and center, if an&one8s "a&ing attention, %he&8d better be because be&ond the "oint of no return, there8s no second chance the #a& Einstein e/"lained after the atom #as
s"lit, @is famous Buote on future #ars #as J $I 5no# not #ith #hat #ea"ons Dorld Dar III #ill be fought, but Dorld Dar I: #ill be fought #ith stic5s and stones,$ 9nder a #orst case scenario, it8s more dire than that, %here ma& be nothing left but resilient beetles and bacteria in the #a5e of a nuclear Zcatastro"heR meaning e3en a ne# stone age is #a& in the future, if at all, %he threat is real and once nearl& ha""ened during the Cuban Missile Crisis in >ctober, 0?+), De later learned a miracle sa3ed us at the .*th anni3ersar& >ctober, )**) summit meeting in @a3ana attended b& the 9! and Russia along #ith host countr& Cuba, For the first time, #e #ere told ho# close #e came to nuclear 2rmageddon, Ce3astation #as a3oided onl& because !o3iet submarine ca"tain :asil& 2r5hi"o3 countermanded his order to fire nuclear-ti""ed tor"edos #hen Russian submarines #ere attac5ed b& 9! destro&ers near Kenned&8s $Buarantine$ line, @ad he done it, onl& our imagination can s"eculate #hat might ha3e follo#ed and #hether "lanet earth, or at least a big "art of it, #ould ha3e sur3i3ed,

A+F Bra6il DA A+F Africa War Impact

No ris. of great po#er conflict o"er Africa Barrett ?: Robert, PhC Militar& P !trategic !tudies, 9 of Calgar&, +-0, htt"J--"a"ers,ssrn,com-solE-Celi3er&,cfm-!!RNQIC()+0+)QcodeE)(I00,"df6 abstractidO()+0+)PmiridO0
Desterners eager to "romote democrac& must be #ar& of 2frican "oliticians #ho "romise democratic reform #ithout sincere commitment to the "rocess, >ffering mone& to corru"t leaders in e/change for their ta5ing small ste"s a#a& from autocrac& ma& in fact be a #a& of "ushing countries into anocrac&, 2s such, #orld financial lenders and inter3entionists #ho #ield le3erage and influence must ta5e res"onsibilit& in considering the ramifications of 2frican nations #ho ado"t democrac& in order to maintain elite "olitical "ri3ileges, %he ob3ious reason for this, aside from the "otential costs in human life should conflict arise from hastil& constructed democratic reforms, is the fact that Destern donors, in the face of intrastate #ar #ould then be faced #ith channeling funds and resources a#a& from democrati=ation efforts and to#ard conflict inter3ention based on issues of human securit&, %his is a "roblem, as Destern nations ma& be increasingl& #ar& of inter3ening in 2frica hots"ots after

e/"eriencing firsthand the un"redictable and unforgi3ing nature of societal #arfare in both !omalia and R#anda, >n a costbenefit basis, the Dest continues to be some#hat reluctant to get in3ol3ed in 2fricas dirt& #ars, e3idenced b& its "olitical hesitation #hen discussing ongoing sanguinar& grassroots conflicts in 2frica, E3en as the #orld a"ologi=es for bearing
#itness to the R#andan genocide #ithout ha3ing inter3ened, the 9 nited ! tates, recentl& using the label ^genocidein the conte/t of the !udanese conflict (in !e"tember of )**.1, has onl& "roclaimed sanctions against !udan, #hile dismissing an& suggestions at actual inter3ention (Gir&, )**I1, Part of the "roblem is that traditional militar& and di"lomatic a""roachs at

se"arating combatants and enforcing ceasefires ha3e &ielded little in 2frica, No "o#erful nations #ant to get embroiled in conflicts the& cannot #in W es"eciall& those conflicts in #hich the inter3ening nation has
3er& little interest,

D&tsi'e po#ers #onCt inter"ene in African conflicts Doc.ing ?> %im, 2frican 2ffairs !"ecialist #ith the 9nited !tates Institute of Peace, )**(, %a5ing !ides Clashing :ie#s on
2frican Issues, ", E(+ !ince the traged& in !omalia,

the trend has been for Destern nations to refuse to send troo"s into 2frica8s hot s"ots, 'ordan recentl& underscored this "oint #hen it e/"ressed frustration #ith the Dest8s failure to commit soldiers to the 9N2M!I4 mission as a reason for the #ithdra#al of its troo"s from !ierra 4eone, 2merica8s a3ersion to "eace5ee"ing in 2frica also reflects broader 9,!, foreign "olic& on the continent, 2frica occu"ies a marginal role in 2merican foreign "olic& in general (a "oint highlighted b& conference "artici"ants1,

A+F Bra6il DA A+F AID( Impact

+ e en' of AID( is #it in sig t Gerson 11 (Michael Gerson -- 2ide to President George D, 7ush as 2ssistant to the President for Polic& and !trategic Planning -- Driter for the Dashington Post -- $Putting 2IC! on the road to e/tinction$ No3ember 0*th, )*00 charticles,#ashington"ost,com-)*00-000*-o"inions-EI)X)0*XQ0Qaids-"re3ention-aids-treatment-aids-free-generation1 !M 2fter E* &ears and E* million funerals, the end of the global 2IC! e"idemic is suddenl&, une/"ectedl&, #ithin sight, It #ould be a final 3ictor& for this cle3er 5iller if 2merica #ere too "reoccu"ied and in#ard-loo5ing to notice and act, Curing the last 0X months, the science of 2IC! "re3ention has been transformed, !tudies ha3e sho#n dramatic results from male circumcision H a more than +* "ercent reduction in the ris5 of transmission from #omen to men, Ne# technologies such as microbicides ha3e "ro3ed effecti3e #hen used before e/"osure to the disease, %hen, three months ago, came an article in the Ne# England 'ournal of Medicinetitled LPre3ention of @I:-0 Infection #ith Earl& 2ntiretro3iral %hera"&,M %he stud& found a ?+ "ercent decrease in transmission to a heterose/ual "artner #hen 2IC! treatment #as begun earl&, %reating 2IC! sooner than later is a dramaticall& effecti3e form of 2IC! "re3ention,
!cientists began considering something "re3iousl& unimaginable, Dhat if these methods of 2IC! "re3ention #ere combined H along #ith condom use and the "re3ention of mother-to-child transmission H and aggressi3el& a""lied in the most affected regions and among the most 3ulnerable grou"s in 2frica6 !cientific models "roFect that transmission rates, alread& declining in most "laces, #ould fall an additional .* "ercent to +* "ercent, %his raises a "ros"ect com"arable to medical achie3ements such as the eradication of small"o/ or ad3ances in cancer treatment, Currentl&, for e3er& ne# 2IC! "atient "ut on treatment, about t#o more become infected, Millions of li3es are sa3ed H but ground is still lost to the disease, Dith combination "re3ention, the balance #ould shift, For e3er& "erson #ho begins treatment, there #ould be fe#er than one #ho becomes infected, %his #ould effecti3el& be the e"idemics end, %he >bama administration has officiall& ado"ted the goal of

Lcreating an 2IC!-free generation,M LDhile the finish line is not &et in sight,M said !ecretar& of !tate @illar& Rodham Clinton on %uesda&, L#e 5no# #e can get there, because no# #e 5no# the route #e need to ta5e, It reBuires all of us to "ut a 3ariet& of scientificall& "ro3en "re3ention tools to #or5 in concert #ith
each other,M 7ut the "olitical timing of these scientific brea5throughs is "oor, %he budget crisis has resulted in a Car#inian com"etition for resources, Clinton accom"anied her ambitious 2IC! obFecti3e #ith the not-3er&-ambitious re"rogramming of [+* million for demonstration "roFects in four countries, 2dditional resources can e3entuall& be sBuee=ed from e/isting 2IC! "rograms, In )**., the cost of treatment a3eraged about [0,)** "er "erson, %oda&, it is less than [EI* and still declining, >ther donor nations, along #ith 2frican countries themsel3es, can ta5e additional burdens, Get the obFecti3e is not a minor one, Earlier 2IC! treatment in the de3elo"ing #orld #ould e/"and the "ool of "eo"le in need of medicine, In the main 9,!, @I:-2IC! "rogram, 2fricans currentl& start drugs #hen their CC. count H the measure of immune s&stem strength H is, on a3erage, about 0I*, 7eginning at a CC. count of EI* H the recommendation of the Dorld @ealth >rgani=ation H #ould increase the number of 2fricans on treatment b& more than I million, 2n aggressi3e treatment-as-"re3ention "rogram #ould start treatment e3en earlier, In normal economic times, the case for this effort #ould be fairl& eas&, 2merican s"ending on all humanitarian aid "rograms amounts to about *,( "ercent of the budget, Dhat other marginal s"ending increase could sa3e millions of li3es, end an e"idemic and allo# "ublic officials to ta5e "art in a historic enter"rise as admirable as the Marshall Plan6 %he "ro"osed "re3ention strategies do not in3ol3e much culture #ar contro3ers&, Religious conser3ati3es ha3e no obFections to treatment and are neither shoc5ed nor alarmed b& circumcision H an old biblical acBuaintance, 7ut #ith economic times far from normal, the case is com"licated, Ending the global 2IC! e"idemic #ould reBuire a maFor "residential "ush, It #ould also reBuire congressional Re"ublicans to ma5e a human life e/ce"tion to austerit&, %his u"hill effort #ould, ho#e3er, be aided b& a "ragmatic argument, !ince )**E, the 9nited !tates has hel"ed "lace millions on 2IC! treatment, In the "rocess, #e ha3e assumed #hat economists call a Ltreatment mortgageM H obligations that cant be abandoned #ithout catastro"hic conseBuences, 2 maFor "re3ention effort H reducing the number of ne# infections to belo# the number of ne# "eo"le "laced on treatment H is the onl& morall& acce"table strateg& that e3entuall& reduces 2merican commitments on 2IC!, @a3ing abru"tl& gained the scientific tools to defeat this e"idemic, #hat remains is a test of #ill and conscience,

AID( 'oesnCt lea' to #ar (ec&rity Co&ncil )ress 9elease 1/ L!C Meets on @I:-2IC! and PK>s, 0-0?-*0, !C-+??),
htt"J--###,un,org-Ne#s-Press-docs-)**0-sc+??),doc,htm K2M24E!@ !@2RM2 (India1 said India had tried to follo# the Councils reasoning on the issue, because @I:-2IC!

#as not, and had not been, a cause of conflict, No countr& had gone to #ar because of 2IC!, Resolution 0E*X ()***1 had, of course, made no such claim, but it did sa& that the L"andemic is

also e/acerbated b& conditions of 3iolence and instabilit&M, %he e3idence did not su""ort that either, AID( #ill !e c&re' in t e ne@t fi"e years (ample 1? (Ian !am"le -- PhC in biomedical materials from gueen Mar&8s, 9ni3ersit& of 4ondon, !cience Corresondent at %he Guaradian $7lan5et @I: testing 8could see 2IC! d&ing out in .* &ears8$ Februar& )0st, )*0* "o###,guardian,co,u5-#orld-)*0*-feb-)0-blan5et-testinghi3-aids1 !M @ealth officials are considering a radical shift in the #ar against @I: and 2ids that #ould see e3er&one tested for the 3irus and "ut on a lifetime course of drugs if the& are found to be "ositi3e, %he strateg&, #hich
#ould in3ol3e testing most of the #orld8s "o"ulation for @I:, aims to reduce the transmission of the 3irus that causes 2ids to a le3el at #hich it dies out com"letel& o3er the ne/t .* &ears, 7rian Dilliams, "rofessor of e"idemiolog& at the !outh 2frican Centre for E"idemiological Modelling and 2nal&sis in !tellenbosch, said that transmission of @I: could effecti3el& be halted

#ithin fi3e &ears #ith the use of antiretro3iral drugs (2R:s1, $%he e"idemic of @I: is reall& one of the #orst

"lagues of human histor&,$ Dilliams told the 2merican 2ssociation for the 2d3ancement of !cience meeting in !an Ciego, $I ho"e #e can get to the starting line in one to t#o &ears and get com"lete co3erage of "atients in fi3e &ears, Ma&be that8s being o"timistic, but #e8re facing 2rmageddon,$ MaFor trials of the strateg& are "lanned in 2frica and the 9! and #ill feed into a final decision on #hether to ado"t the measure as "ublic health "olic& in the ne/t t#o &ears, %he mo3e follo#s research that sho#s blan5et "rescribing of 2R:s could sto" @I: transmission and hal3e cases of 2ids-related tuberculosis

#ithin 0* &ears, More than E* million "eo"le are infected #ith @I: globall& and t#o million die of the disease each &ear, Dhile accounts for a Buarter of all @I:-2ids cases globall&, @alf of these are in !outh 2frica, In general e"idemics, a "erson #ith @I: infects bet#een fi3e to 0* others before succumbing to com"lications of 2ids, %reating "atients #ith 2R:s #ithin a &ear of becoming infected can reduce transmission tenfold, enough to cause the e"idemic to die out, In the trials, "eo"le #ill be offered
@I: tests once a &ear, either as routine #hen the& 3isit their GP, or through mobile clinics in more remote regions, %hose testing "ositi3e #ill be "ut on a lifetime course of 2R:s, $>3er the "ast )I &ears #e ha3e sa3ed the li3es of "robabl& t#o to three million "eo"le using antiretro3iral drugs, but almost nothing #e ha3e done has had an& im"act on transmission of the disease,$ Dilliams said, $De ha3e sto""ed "eo"le d&ing but #e ha3en8t sto""ed the e"idemic,$ If "atients ta5e 2R:s

2R:s ha3e been a huge success in "re3enting the 3irus from causing full-blo#n 2ids, scientists estimate onl& 0)_ of those li3ing #ith the infection recei3e the drugs, %he disease is o3er#helmingl& "re3alent in sub-!aharan 2frica, #hich

#hen the& should, the amount of 3irus in their bodies can fall b& 0*,*** times, to a le3el at #hich the& are e/tremel& unli5el& to "ass the 3irus on, $%he Buestion is, can #e use these drugs not onl& to 5ee" "eo"le ali3e, but also to sto" transmission and I belie3e that #e can, De could effecti3el& sto" transmission of @I: in fi3e &ears,$ !cientists estimate that the cost of im"lementing the strateg&

in !outh 2frica alone #ill be [Ebn-[.bn a &ear, %he #orld currentl& s"ends [E*bn (z0?,.bn1 a &ear on 2ids research and treatment, a figure that some e/"erts belie3e #ill double o3er the ne/t decade, !ub-!aharan 2frica has seen a dramatic rise in cases of tuberculosis among @I: "atients, #ho are also susce"tible to other infections because their immune s&stems are #ea5ened, $If &ou factor in all of the costs, in m& o"inion, doing this #ould be cost sa3ing from da& one, because the cost of the drugs #ould be more than balanced b& the cost of treating "eo"le for all of these other diseases and then letting them die,$ Dilliams said, $De8re 5illing "robabl& half a million &oung adults e3er& &ear in the "rime of their life Fust at the "oint #here the& should be contributing to societ& and the cost of that to societ& is enormous,$ he added, $%he onl& thing that8s more e/"ensi3e than doing this is not doing this,$ @I: "atients in southern 2frica are more li5el& to ta5e 2R:s #hen the& should than "eo"le li3ing in de3elo"ed countries, according to health officials, %he finding gi3es doctors ho"e that the blan5et administering of drugs might su""ress the 3irus enough that it dies out naturall&, 4ast &ear, scientists re"orted marginal success of a @I: 3accine follo#ing a large scale trial in %hailand, %he 3accine benefited onl& E0_ of those #ho recei3ed it, 2 3accine is generall& regarded as #orth#hile if it "rotects more than (*_ of those treated,

A+F Bra6il DA A+F B9IC( Impact

No impact --- t eyCll =&st !an'#agon #it t e *2(2 Brilliant/ 1, H senior 3ice "resident for international affairs at the 9,!, Chamber of Commerce (M&ron, L%he Dorld in )*E*J 2re #e on the "ath to con3ergence or di3ergence6M, Global %rends )*E*, I-)(-)*0), htt"J--gt)*E*,com-)*0)-*I-)(-the-#orld-in-)*E*-are-#e-on-the-"ath-tocon3ergence-or-di3ergence-, Ceech1 Dhile it is true that lea'ers from Bra6il/ 9&ssia/ C ina an' In'ia no# meet to discuss regional and global
issues, this is at this time largel& a tal5-sho"N nothing "rofound has come out of these discussions, Certainl&, it is hard to see these countries agreeing to ma" out a radical de"arture from the e/isting international s&stem through alternati3e institutions, @o#e3er, these countries #ill begin to demand changes to the e/isting s&stem or the& #ont "la& ball #ith the mandates issued b& these go3ernance organi=ations, It is #orth noting that most of these countries see 'irectional alignment #it t e

*nited (tates as essential for glo!al sta!ility H e3en if the& at times ha3e different 3ie#s on critical geo"olitical issues (e,g,, fi3e "lus one on Iran or si/-"art& tal5s #ith North Korea1, Certainl&, China sees itself as more of a "artner of the 9nited !tates on economic and securit& matters than it #ould India or Russia, #here the de"endenc& and trust factor is e3en lo#er, 2nd 7ra=ilian President Cilma made it Buite e/"licit #hen she articulated in Dashington, C,C, during her #inter 3isit that her countr&s as"iration is to ha3e a strategic relationshi" #ith the 9nited !tatesN in contrast, she said 7ra=il onl& #anted a commercial relationshi" #ith China,

A+F Bra6il DA A+F Democracy Impact

Democracies go to #ar Israel an' In'ia !ot pro"e ( a#/ ?? (Martin, Professor of International Relations and Politics, 9ni3ersit& of !usse/, )***, LCemocrac& and "eace in the global re3olution,M htt"J--###,susse/,ac,u5-9sers-hafaE-democrac&,htm, @ensel1 In the global era, established liberal-democratic states do not fight each other , 7ut once again, it ob3ious that this is not sim"l& !eca&se t ey are 'emocracies, but because the& are embedded in the raft of common Destern and global state institutions , Indeed it is not Fust liberal democracies #hich do not fight each otherJ the maFor non-Destern states (Russia, China, India, 7ra=il, etc,1, #hether democratic or not, are not li5el& to fight #ith the dominant Destern "o#ers, >utside the Destern core of global state "o#er, ho#e3er, national centres are more #ea5l& integrated #ith its institutional structures, and regional institutions #hich might inhibit local conflicts are much #ea5er than the& are in the core , In the
Cold Dar era, interstate ri3alries bet#een maFor regional "o#ers - such as bet#een Russia and China, India and Pa5istan and China, Indonesia and Mala&sia, Iran and IraB, Israel and the 2rab states - led to #ars and border incidents, Dhile the integrati3e

tendencies in the emerging global "olit&, including the democratisation trends, ma& increasingl& inhibit #ars, it clearl& remains possi!le t at s&c interstate ri"alries #ill generate ne# #ars, It is clear that democratisation in itself is not a guarantee of #ar-a3oidance in such conficts , Israel, the onl& internall& democratic state in the Middle East, has also been the most belligerentN Indian democrac& has been Buite com"atible #ith bellicosit& to#ards Pa5istan , Cemocratic as #ell as
militar& go3ernments ma& see #ar, so long as it can be 5e"t limited and relati3el& cost-free, as a means of boosting "o"ularit&, %hus Geltsins Russia sought a militar& solution in the brea5a#a& re"ublic of Chechn&a, des"ite the lessons of the late-!o3iet failure in 2fghanistan, >nl& in defeat did Russias #ea5 democrac& "enalise the regime for the ne# disaster, and then not decisi3el&,

Democracy 'oesnCt sol"e "iolence #it in states empirics Ferg&son/ ?$ (Niall, 4aurence 2, %isch Professor of @istor& at @ar3ard 9ni3ersit&, senior fello# at the @oo3er Institution, !tanford 9ni3ersit&, )**+, The ar of the orld: !istory"s Age of !atred, ", ///3iii, @ensel1
Cid it matter ho# states #ere go3erned6 It has become fashionable among "olitical scientists to "osit a correlation bet#een democrac& and "eace, on the ground that democracies tend not to go to #ar #ith one another, >n that basis, of course, the long-run rise of democrac& during the t#entieth centur& should ha3e reduced the incidence of #ar, It ma& ha3e reduced the incidence of #ar bet#een statesN there is, ho#e3er, at least some e3idence that #a3es of democrati=ation in the 0?)*s,

0?+*s, and 0?X*s #ere follo#ed b& increases in the number of ci3il #ars and #ars of secession , %his brings us to a central "oint, %o consider t#entieth-centur& conflict "urel& in terms of #arfare bet#een states is to o3erloo5 the im"ortance of organi=ed 3iolence #it in states, %he most notorious e/am"le is, of course, the #ar #aged b& the Na=is and their collaborators against the 'e#s, nearl& si/ million of #hom "erished, %he Na=is simultaneousl& sought to annihilate a 3ariet& of other social
grou"s deemed to be ^un#orth& of life, notabl& mentall& ill and homose/ual Germans, the social elite of occu"ied Poland and the !inti and Roma "eo"les, In all, more than three million "eo"le from these other grou"s #ere murdered, Prior to these e3ents,

!talin had "er"etrated com"arable acts of 3iolence against national minorities #ithin the !o3iet 9nion as #ell as e/ecuting or incarcerating millions of Russians guilt& or merel& sus"ected of "olitical dissidence, >f around four million non-Russians #ho #ere de"orted to !iberia and Central 2sia, at least 0,+ million
are estimated to ha3e died as a result of the hardshi"s inflicted on them, 2 minimum estimate for the total 3ictims of all "olitical 3iolence in the !o3iet 9nion bet#een 0?)X and 0?IE is t#ent&-one million, Get genocide "redated totalitarianism, 2s #e shall see, the

"olicies of forced resettlement and deliberate murder directed against Christian minorities in the last &ears of the >ttoman Em"ire amounted to genocide according to the 0?.X definition of the term,

A+F Bra6il DA A+F Israeli Conflict Impact

IsraelO)alestine conflict as ne"er escalate' (atloff/ $ (Robert, E/ecuti3e Cirector W Dashington Institute, L%he IraB !tud& Grou"J 2ssessing Its Regional ConclusionsM, 0)-)0, htt"J--###,#ashingtoninstitute,org-tem"lateC*I,"h"6CICO)I.?1 + e re"ort8s greatest analytical leap of fait is t e notion t at all the 5e& iss&es in t e %i''le East are $ine/tricabl& lin.e',$ In t e past/ it #as !elie"e' t at the e/"ort of the Iranian re3olution #ould undermine "ro-Dest regimes throughout the Middle East, or that failure to resol3e the Israeli)alestinian conflict #o&l' spar. a regional #ar, %oda&, the idea of lin5age im"lies that !unni-!hiite 3iolence #ill s"read throughout the region, + e pro!lem #it all these t eories is t at t ere is no e"i'ence to !ac. t em &p, %o the contrar&, militar& success in the Gulf does not translate into di"lomatic success in
the 2rab-Israeli arena, %he Madrid "rocess had a "romising o"ening session, but #hen it came do#n to bargaining it ran u" against the realit& of Israeli-Palestinian differences, Furthermore, there is no e"i'ence t at local 'isasters

translate into regional 'isasters, 2&atollah Ruhollah 5 omeini7s Iran faile' to e@port t e re"ol&tion des"ite national efforts, + ere is no e"i'ence to su""ort the "ro"osition t at Israeli)alestinian "iolence as substantial regional reperc&ssions/ let alone t at it can lea' to regional #ar, %he &ears ,??? to ,??4 sa# t e #orst perio' of Israeli-)alestinian relations/ !&t t e regional implication #as 6ero, Not one state t reatene' to fig t Israel/ t e Ara! street 'i' not rise to protest/ an' no Ara! regime7s sta!ility #as t reatene', %he 9nited !tates should not 3ie# the Middle East as an organic unit, IraB8s "roblems are "rimaril& IraBi in
origin and IraBi in solution, Iran alone "oses a serious challenge, and the Israeli-Palestinian "roblem is im"ortant to sol3e because it is the right thing to do,

A+F Bra6il DA A+F LA Insta!ility Impact

Latin america literally poses no sec&rity t reat Naim $ (Moises, Foreign Polic& no0I( .*-E, .I-( N-C )**+, editor of foreign "olic& maga=ine1 For decades, 4atin 2merica8s #eight in the #orld has been shrin5ing, It is not an economic "o#erhouse, a securit& threat, or a "o"ulation bomb, E3en its tragedies "ale in com"arison to 2frica8s, %he
region #ill not rise until it ends its search for magic formulas, It ma& not ma5e for a good sound bite, but "atience is 4atin 2merica8s biggest deficit of all, 4atin 2merica has gro#n used to li3ing in the bac5&ard of the 9nited !tates, For decades, it has been a region #here the 9,!, go3ernment meddled in local "olitics, fought communists, and "romoted its business interests, E3en if the rest of the #orld #asn8t "a&ing attention to 4atin 2merica, the 9nited !tates occasionall& #as, %hen came !e"tember 00, and e3en the 9nited !tates seemed to tune out, Naturall&, the #orld8s attention centered almost e/clusi3el& on terrorism, the #ars in 2fghanistan, IraB, and 4ebanon, and on the nuclear ambitions of North Korea and Iran, 4atin 2merica became 2tlantis--the lost continent, 2lmost o3ernight, it disa""eared from the ma"s of in3estors, generals, di"lomats, and Fournalists, Indeed, as one commentator recentl& Bui""ed, 4atin 2merica can8t com"ete on the #orld stage in an& as"ect, e3en as a threat, 9nli5e

anti-2mericans else#here, 4atin 2mericans are not #illing to die for the sa5e of their geo"olitical hatreds, 4atin 2merica is a nuclear-#ea"ons free =one, Its onl& #ea"on of mass destruction is cocaine, In contrast to emerging mar5ets li5e India and China, 4atin 2merica is a minor economic "la&er #hose global significance is declining , !ure, a fe# countries e/"ort oil and gas, but onl&
:ene=uela is in the to" league of the #orld8s energ& mar5et, Not e3en 4atin 2merica8s disasters seem to elicit global concern an&more, 2rgentina e/"erienced a massi3e financial stro5e in )**0, and no one abroad seemed to care, 9nli5e "rior crashes, no go3ernment or international financial institution rushed to bail it out, 4atin 2merica doesn8t ha3e 2frica8s famines,

genocides, an @I:-2IC! "andemic, #holesale state failures, or roc5 stars #ho routinel& ado"t its tragedies, 7ono, 7ill Gates, and 2ngelina 'olie #orr& about 7ots#ana, not 7ra=il, 7ut Fust as the fi3e-&ear-old #ar on terror
"ronounced the necessit& of confronting threats #here the& linger, it also underscored the dangers of neglect, 4i5e 2fghanistan, 4atin 2merica sho#s ho# Buic5l& and eas& it is for the 9nited !tates to lose its influence #hen Dashington is distracted b& other "riorities, In both "laces, Dashington8s disinterest "roduced a 3acuum that #as filled b& "olitical grou"s and leaders hostile to the 9nited !tates, No, 4atin 2merica is not churning out Islamic terrorists as 2fghanistan #as during the da&s of the %aliban, In 4atin 2merica, the "o#er ga" is being filled b& a grou" of dis"arate leaders often lum"ed together under the banner of "o"ulism, >n the rare occasions that 4atin 2merican countries do ma5e international ne#s, it8s the election of a so-called "o"ulist, an a""arentl& anti-2merican, anti-mar5et leader, that raises hac5les, @o#e3er, 4atin 2merica8s "o"ulists aren8t a monolith, !ome are #orse for international stabilit& than is usuall& re"orted, 7ut some ha3e the "otential to chart a ne#, "ositi3e course for the region, 9nderl&ing the ascent of these ne# leaders are se3eral real, stubborn threads running through 4atin 2mericans8 frustration #ith the status Buo in their countries, 9nfortunatel&, the 9nited !tates8---and the rest of the #orld8s--lac5 of interest in that region means that the forces that are sha"ing dis"arate "olitical mo3ements in 4atin 2merica are often glossed o3er, misinter"reted, or ignored, 9ltimatel&, though, #hat matters most is not #hat the northern giant thin5s or does as much as #hat half a billion 4atin 2mericans thin5 and do, 2nd in the last cou"le of decades, the #ild s#ings in their "olitical beha3ior ha3e created a highl& unstable terrain #here building the institutions indis"ensable for "rogress or for fighting "o3ert& has become increasingl& difficult, %here is a #a& out, 7ut it8s not the Buic5 fi/ that too man& of 4atin 2merica8s leaders ha3e "romised and that an im"atient "o"ulation demands,

A+F Bra6il DA A+F (mo.ing Impact

(mo.ing isnCt t at !a'- as ealt !enefits (ample/ 4 R L!mo5ing is good for &ouM - bIan !am"le %he Guardian, Dednesda& + 2ugust
)**E citing 'odi Fla#s at the 9ni3ersit& of Mar&land school of medicine,htt"J--###,guardian,co,u5-lifeandst&le-)**E-aug-*(-sho""ing,healthR--2C7
!mo5ing %al5 to "h&sicians and the&8ll tell &ou there are fe# things &ou can "ut in &our mouth that are #orse for &ou than a cigarette, 7ut it8s not all doom and gloom, !mo5ers are at least doing their bit to slo# do#n the

runa#a& obesit& e"idemic that is s#ee"ing through the #estern #orld, $In man& studies, &ou often find smo5ers are slimmer, De83e certainl& seen it in our studies,$ sa&s 'odi Fla#s at the 9ni3ersit& of Mar&land school of medicine, $!ome "eo"le thin5 it8s due to certain chemicals in cigarettes someho# ma5ing them burn more calories, but others belie3e it su""resses a""etite, It ma& #ell be
both,$ Crasticall& u""ing &our chances of cancer and heart disease might not be the best #a& to a3oid obesit&, but it8s certainl& easier than running round the bloc5, !cientists ha3e also found e3idence that smo5ing might, in some

circumstances, hel" "re3ent the onset of 3arious dementias, Man& dementias go hand-in-hand #ith a loss of chemical rece"tors in the brain that Fust ha""en to be stimulated b& nicotine, !mo5ing seems to
bolster these rece"tors, and smo5ers ha3e more of them, %he theor& is that smo5ers ma& then ha3e more to lose before the& start losing their minds, $It does seem that nicotine has a "re3entati3e effect, but the "roblem is that the other stuff in the cigarette tends to rot e3er&thing else,$ sa&s Roger 7ulloc5, a s"ecialist in dementia and director of the Kingshill Research Centre in !#indon, !o if &our time is nearl& u" an&#a&, and &ou ha3e someho# managed to steer a course "ast the !c&lla and Char&bdis of heart attac5s and tumours, smo.ing

mig t =&st elp yo& retain yo&r mar!les 2

A+F Bra6il DA A+F (oft )o#er Impact

Empirics pro"e no n&.e prolif an' no impact Ga"in/ 0 (Ph,C, in Ci"lomatic @istor& from the 9ni3ersit& of Penns&l3ania, a Master of !tudies in Modern Euro"ean @istor& from >/ford, and a 7,2, in Political !cience (#ith honors1 from the 9ni3ersit& of Chicago, Professor of International 2ffairs at 4&ndon 7, 'ohnson !chool of Public 2ffairs at the 9ni3ersit& of %e/as at 2ustin, L!ame as it e3er #as,M MI% "ress Fournals, htt"J--###,mit"ressFournals,org-doi-"df"lus-0*,00+)-isec,)*0*,E.,E,(1 >ne of the greatest fears of nuclear alarmists is that if a 5e& state acBuires nuclear #ea"ons, others #ill follo#, %his idea of a nuclear ti"- "ing "oint, chain reaction, or LdominoM effect, ho#e3er, is b& no means ne#, Consider this headline
HLMan& Nations Read& to 7rea5 into Nuclear ClubMH from a front-"age article in the Dashington Post from 'une 0?X0,E? 2rticles #ith similar titles can be found from almost e3er& &ear since at least the earl& 0?+*s, Fears of a ti""ing "oint #ere

es"eciall& acute in the aftermath of Chinas 0?+. detonation of an atomic bombJ it #as "redicted that India, Indonesia, and 'a"an might follo#, #ith conseBuences #orld#ide , as LIsrael, !#eden,
German&, and other "otential nuclear countries far from China and India #ould be affected b& "roliferation in 2sia,M.* 2 9,!, go3ernment document identiaed Lat least ele3en nations (India, 'a"an, Israel, !#eden, Dest German&, Ital&, Canada, C=echoslo3a5ia, East German&, Rumania, and Gugosla3ia1M #ith the ca"acit& to go nuclear, a number that #ould soon Lgro# substantiall&M to include L!outh 2frica, the 9nited 2rab Re"ublic, !"ain, 7ra=il and Me/ico,M and com"le/it& of this "roblem b& creating strong "ressures to de3elo" inde- "endent nuclear forces, #hich, in turn, could strongl& inouence the "lans of other "otential nuclear "o#ers,M%hese "redictions #ere largel& #rong, In 0?XI the National Intelligence Council noted that

2ll of these esti- mates based their largel& "essimistic and ultimatel& incorrect estimates on fac- tors such as the increased Laccess to assile materials,M im"ro3ed technical ca"abilities in countries, the li5elihood of Lchain reactions,M or a LscrambleM to "roliferation #hen Le3en one additional state demonstrates a nuclear ca"a- bilit&,M %he 0?XI re"ort goes on, L%he most stri5ing characteristic of the "resent-da&
for Lalmost thirt& &ears the Intelligence Communit& has been #riting about #hich nations might ne/t get the bomb,M nuclear "roliferation scene is that, des"ite the alarms rung b& "ast Estimates, no additional o3ert "roliferation of nuclear #ea"ons has actuall& occurred since China tested its bomb in 0?+.,M 2lthough Lsome "roliferation of nuclear e/"losi3e

ca"abilities and other maFor "roliferation-related de3elo"- ments ha3e ta5en "lace in the "ast t#o decades,M the& did not ha3e Lthe damaging, s&stem#ide im"acts that the Intelligence communit& generall& an- tici"ated the& #ould,M.E

A+F Bra6il DA A+F Warming Impact

Bra6il #onCt sol"e #arming conflicting priorities Bo'man an' Wolfenso n/ 11 - 9,!, secretar& of energ& from )**I to )**?, a 7! from Cornell 9ni3ersit& and a PhC from MI%, #here he #as also associate "rofessor of chemical engineering, 'ames C, Dolfensohn is chairman of Dolfensohn P Com"an&, 44C, chairman of Citigrou"s international ad3isor& board, and ad3iser to Citigrou"s senior management on global strateg& and on international matters, @e is a honorar& trustee of the 7roo5ings Institution, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, Master of 7usiness 2dministration (M721 degree at @ar3ard 7usiness !chool, (LGlobal 7ra=il and 9,!,-7ra=il Relations,M Inde"endent %as5 Force Re"ort No, ++, Council on Foreign Relations, 'ul& 0)th, )*00, htt"J--###,cfr,org-bra=il-global-bra=il-us-bra=il-relations-")I.*(1--@24 Ces"ite 7ra=ils goals, mitigating climate change often conflicts #ith other go3ernmental "riorities, such as "o3ert& reduction, economic de3elo"ment, and e/"ansion of trade , Reducing 2ma=on deforestation com"etes #ith large-scale h&dro"o#er de3elo"ment and construction of transcontinental high#a&s to lin5 7ra=ils hinterland #ith the Pacific >cean, Reductions in land-use and agricultural emissions com"ete #ith 7ra=ils gro#ing agricultural sector, E3en the "ro"osed reduction "lans ha3e limited ca"acit& and can offset each otherHe/"anding biofuels and h&dro"o#er ma& result in greater land-use emissions, %he %as5 Force #arns that these conflicts can reduce the effecti3eness of G@G reduction "rograms and "ut their sustainabilit& at ris5, %he %as5 Force #elcomes 7ra=ils aggressi3e "osition to#ard reducing domestic G@G emissions, going materiall& be&ond its obligations under current climate agreements, 2chie3ing these goals, ho#e3er, #ill be com"licated b& multi"le com"eting "riorities of economic gro#th, social de3elo"ment, and trade, De"eloping co&ntries/ la@ reg&lation/ an' profit ma@imi6ation means #arming is ine"ita!le )orter/ 14 - #rites the Economic !cene column for the Dednesda& 7usiness section (March 0?, Eduardo, L2 Model for Reducing EmissionsM htt"J--###,n&times,com-)*0E-*E-)*-business-us-e/am"le-offers-ho"e-for-cutting-carbonemissions,html6QrO0P1 E"en if e"ery American coal-fired power plant were to close, that #ould not ma5e u" for the coal-based generators being built in de3elo"ing countries li5e India and China, L!ince )***, the gro#th in coal has been 0* times that of rene#ables,M said Caniel Gergin, chairman of I@! Cambridge Energ& Research 2ssociates,S Fatih 7irol, chief economist of the International Energ& 2genc& in Paris, "oints out that if ci3ili=ation is to a3oid catastro"hic climate change, onl& about one third of the E,*** gigatons of C>) contained in the #orlds .no#n reser"es of oil, gas and coal can be released into the atmos"here,S 7ut the #orld econom& does not #or5 as if this #ere the case H not go3ernments, nor businesses, nor consumers, S LIn all m& e/"erience as an oil com"an& manager, not a single oil com"an& too5 into the "icture the "roblem of C>),M said 4eonardo Maugeri, an energ& e/"ert at @ar3ard #ho until )*0* #as head of strateg& and de3elo"ment for Ital&s state-o#ned oil com"an&, Eni, L%he& are all totall& de3oted to re"lacing the reser3es the& consume e3er& &ear,M + eir st&'ies pro"e t e e@istence of #arming/ not t e impact 'ooms'ay pre'ictions are empirically 'enie' an' ignore scientists 'ohn (tossel, 2#ard-#inning 27C Ne#s corres"ondent, ,??> %he Global Darming M&th6, htt"J--abcne#s,go,com-)*)*-!tor&6idOE*+0*0IP"ageO0

Cr, 'ohn Christ&, "rofessor of 2tmos"heric !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of 2labama at @unts3ille saidJ $I remember as a college student at the first Earth Ca& being told it #as a certaint& that b& the &ear )***, the #orld #ould be star3ing and out of energ&, !uch doomsda& "ro"hecies grabbed headlines, but ha3e pro"en to !e completely false2H $!imilar "ronouncements toda& about catastro"hes due to human-induced climate change,$ he continued, $sound all too familiar and all too e@aggerate' to me as someone #ho actuall& "roduces and anal&=es climate information,$ %he media, of course, li5e the e/aggerated claims, Most are based on com"uter models that "ur"ort to "redict future climates, 7ut com"uter models are lo&sy at pre'icting climate because #ater 3a"or and cloud effects cause changes that com"uters fail to "redict, In the mid-0?(*s, com"uter models told us #e should "re"are for global cooling, !cientists tell re"orters that com"uter models should $be 3ie#ed #ith great s5e"ticism,$ Dell, #h& aren8t the&6 %he fundamentalist doom mongers also ignore scientists #ho sa& the effects of global #arming ma& be benign, @ar3ard astro"h&sicist !allie 7aliunas said added C>) in the atmos"here may act&ally !enefit t e #orl' because more C>) hel"s "lants gro#, Darmer #inters #ould gi3e farmers a longer har3est season, and might end the droughts in the !ahara Cesert, Dh& don8t #e hear about this "art of the global #arming argument6 $It8s the mone&q$ said Cr, 7aliunas, $%#ent&-fi3e billion dollars in go3ernment funding has been s"ent since 0??* to research global #arming, If scientists and researchers #ere coming out releasing re"orts that global #arming has little to do #ith man, and most to do #ith Fust ho# the "lanet #or5s, there #ouldn8t be as much mone& to stud& it,$

A+F Democracy DA ,AC

)romoting *2(2 infl&ence in t e region no# is .ey past 'emocratic a'"ances are slo#ly !eing re"erse' (a!atini/ 14 (Christo"her, Editor in Chief of 2mericas guarterl& and !enior Cirector of Polic& at the 2mericas !ociet& and the Council of the 2mericas, LDI44 42%IN 2MERIC2 MI!! 9,!, @EGEM>NG6,M 'ournal of International 2ffairs, :olume ++, Issue ), !"ring )*0E, "g, 0-a:I, ProBuest, %ashma1
>ne such area is human rights, President Cha3e= "ulled :ene=uela out of the esteemed Inter-2merican Court of @uman Rights and Presidents Correa (of Ecuador1 and Morales ha3e sought to reduce the inde"endence of the Inter2merican Commission on @uman Rights - t#o regional human rights bodies nominall& under the >2!, In its fift& "lus &ears of histor&, the inter-

2merican s&stem of human rights has "rotected citi=ens and defended human rights against unelected t&rants and unaccountable elected go3ernments, 9nfortunatel&, much of the region remained silent as countries ha3e tried to gut these institutions, 2t the same time, the much-lauded ad3ances in electoral standards that ushered in the longest histor& of democrac& in the region and led to greater le3els of "olitical and social inclusion are at ris5 of being rolled bac5, In countries li5e the
Cominican Re"ublic in 0??. and Peru in )***, after sitting "residents attem"ted to den& citi=ens their right to 3ote to choose their leaders, the 9nited !tates hel"ed to catal&=e the regional coalitions that ultimatel& ensured that those

citi=ens8 demands and rights #ere recogni=ed, %he standards that the 9nited !tates su""orted and 9,!, leadershi" are no# being eroded, as go3ernments li5e :ene=uela and Ecuador are refusing to in3ite electoral missions, Democracies go to #ar Israel an' In'ia !ot pro"e ( a#/ ?? (Martin, Professor of International Relations and Politics, 9ni3ersit& of !usse/, )***, LCemocrac& and "eace in the global re3olution,M htt"J--###,susse/,ac,u5-9sers-hafaE-democrac&,htm, @ensel1 In the global era, established liberal-democratic states do not fight each other , 7ut once again, it ob3ious that this is not sim"l& !eca&se t ey are 'emocracies, but because the& are embedded in the raft of common Destern and global state institutions , Indeed it is not Fust liberal democracies #hich do not fight each otherJ the maFor non-Destern states (Russia, China, India, 7ra=il, etc,1, #hether democratic or not, are not li5el& to fight #ith the dominant Destern "o#ers, >utside the Destern core of global state "o#er, ho#e3er, national centres are more #ea5l& integrated #ith its institutional structures, and regional institutions #hich might inhibit local conflicts are much #ea5er than the& are in the core , In the
Cold Dar era, interstate ri3alries bet#een maFor regional "o#ers - such as bet#een Russia and China, India and Pa5istan and China, Indonesia and Mala&sia, Iran and IraB, Israel and the 2rab states - led to #ars and border incidents, Dhile the integrati3e

tendencies in the emerging global "olit&, including the democratisation trends, ma& increasingl& inhibit #ars, it clearl& remains possi!le t at s&c interstate ri"alries #ill generate ne# #ars, It is clear that democratisation in itself is not a guarantee of #ar-a3oidance in such conficts , Israel, the onl& internall& democratic state in the Middle East, has also been the most belligerentN Indian democrac& has been Buite com"atible #ith bellicosit& to#ards Pa5istan , Cemocratic as #ell as
militar& go3ernments ma& see #ar, so long as it can be 5e"t limited and relati3el& cost-free, as a means of boosting "o"ularit&, %hus Geltsins Russia sought a militar& solution in the brea5a#a& re"ublic of Chechn&a, des"ite the lessons of the late-!o3iet failure in 2fghanistan, >nl& in defeat did Russias #ea5 democrac& "enalise the regime for the ne# disaster, and then not decisi3el&,

Democracy 'oesnCt sol"e "iolence #it in states empirics Ferg&son/ ?$ (Niall, 4aurence 2, %isch Professor of @istor& at @ar3ard 9ni3ersit&, senior fello# at the @oo3er Institution, !tanford 9ni3ersit&, )**+, The ar of the orld: !istory"s Age of !atred, ", ///3iii, @ensel1
Cid it matter ho# states #ere go3erned6 It has become fashionable among "olitical scientists to "osit a correlation bet#een democrac& and "eace, on the ground that democracies tend not to go to #ar #ith one another, >n that basis, of course, the long-run rise of democrac& during the t#entieth centur& should ha3e reduced the incidence of #ar, It ma& ha3e reduced the incidence of #ar bet#een statesN there is, ho#e3er, at least some e3idence that #a3es of democrati=ation in the 0?)*s,

0?+*s, and 0?X*s #ere follo#ed b& increases in the number of ci3il #ars and #ars of secession ,

%his brings us to a central "oint, %o

consider t#entieth-centur& conflict "urel& in terms of #arfare bet#een states is to o3erloo5 the im"ortance of organi=ed 3iolence #it in states, %he most notorious e/am"le is, of course, the #ar #aged b& the Na=is and their collaborators against the 'e#s, nearl& si/ million of #hom "erished, %he Na=is simultaneousl& sought to annihilate a 3ariet& of other social
grou"s deemed to be ^un#orth& of life, notabl& mentall& ill and homose/ual Germans, the social elite of occu"ied Poland and the !inti and Roma "eo"les, In all, more than three million "eo"le from these other grou"s #ere murdered, Prior to these e3ents,

!talin had "er"etrated com"arable acts of 3iolence against national minorities #ithin the !o3iet 9nion as #ell as e/ecuting or incarcerating millions of Russians guilt& or merel& sus"ected of "olitical dissidence, >f around four million non-Russians #ho #ere de"orted to !iberia and Central 2sia, at least 0,+ million
are estimated to ha3e died as a result of the hardshi"s inflicted on them, 2 minimum estimate for the total 3ictims of all "olitical 3iolence in the !o3iet 9nion bet#een 0?)X and 0?IE is t#ent&-one million, Get genocide "redated totalitarianism, 2s #e shall see, the

"olicies of forced resettlement and deliberate murder directed against Christian minorities in the last &ears of the >ttoman Em"ire amounted to genocide according to the 0?.X definition of the term,

A+F Dollar Ba' DA ,AC

No 'ollar replacement in Latin America Wei!el/ 11 (Mauricio, LE9 crisis "ushes billions of dollars into 4atin 2merica,M CP2, 79!INE!! 2NC FIN2NCI24 NED!, 00-0I-00, le/is, %ashma1 No3, 0I--!2N%I2G> -- 7illions of dollars continue to flo# into 4atin 2merica amid the ongoing economic crisis in Euro"e and the 9nited !tates, $%oda& 4atin 2merica is seen as an interesting alternati3e for foreign direct in3estment, gi3en the lo#er demand in de3elo"ed countries ,$ Caniel
%itelman, head of Ce3elo"ment !tudies at the 9N8s Economic Commission for 4atin 2merica and the Caribbean (EC42C1, told d"a, 2ccording to the EC42C, foreign direct in3estment in 4atin 2merica gre# b& I. "ercent , or X) billion dollars, in the first half of this &ear, 7ra=il, Me/ico, Chile and Colombia alone recei3ed a total of +X billion dollars o3er that "eriod, Foreign direct in3estment #as Foined b& short-term funds and e/"orts, #hich alone amounted to more than 0** billion dollars from 'anuar& to 'une, $%he challenge for the region is to get that ca"ital to finance "roducti3e in3estment,$ %itelman said, as he called for restructuring 4atin 2merica8s financial mar5ets, %he EC42C official noted that China is crucial for the future of !outh 2merica, and stressed that 4atin 2merica #ill continue to benefit from e/tra funds for as long as Euro"e and the

9nited !tates continue to gro#, e3en if the& do so modestl&, Latin American !an.s are resilient --- no collapse %al.in/ 11 (Elisabeth, LPushing 4atin 2merican 7an5s to 4end,M %he Ne# Gor5 %imes, 00-)?-00, htt"J--economi/,blogs,n&times,com-)*00-00-)?-"ushing-latin-american-ban5s-tolend-, %ashma1 MEaIC> CI%G H 2s economic turmoil #hi"lashes ban5s in Euro"e and "oses ne# threats to 2merican financial institutions, the 3ie# from 4atin 2merica is 3er& different, Dell off the radar screen of the global economic crisis, Latin AmericaCs !an.s a"e pro"en t eir st&r'iness/ emerging relati3el& &nscat e' from t e collapse2 %he "roblem, according to a stud& released b& the Dorld 7an5 on %uesda&, is that the& Fust dont lend 3er& much, 4atin 2mericas ban5ing crises are #ell behind it, "art of the detritus of economic mismanagement in the 0?X*s and 0??*s, !ince then, regulators , "articularl& in the regions most de3elo"ed countries, ha3e focused on ensuring the ban5s stabilit& and resilienc&, Dorries about a contagion effect on the 4atin 2merican subsidiaries of Euro"ean and North 2merican ban5s are held in chec5 because the& ha3e to follo# local ca"ital reBuirements,

A+F Dollar Ba' DA A+F Inflation Impact

No yperinflation Ba.er/ 1? (Cean, Co-director, Center for Economic Polic& and Research, !e"tember )*0*, htt"J--###,ce"r,net-documents-"ublications-deficits-)*0*-?,"df1 For these reasons, an& inflation that resulted from the Feds decision to bu& large amounts of debt at "resent #ould be a "lus for the econom& rather than something to be feared, If inflation threatened to get out of control, then it
#ould be a serious "roblem, but there is little "ossibilit& that this could ha""en gi3en the de"th of the do#nturn, Furthermore, inflation does not Fust begin s5&roc5eting o3ernight in de3elo"ed economies, Inflation increases

graduall& in res"onse to e/cess demand, If there #as e3idence that tight labor mar5ets or bottlenec5s in "roduction #ere creating inflationar& "ressures, then the Fed #ould ha3e "lent& of time to re3erse course and ado"t "olicies to slo# the econom&, In short, the decision to bu& large amounts of debt at "resent holds little ris5, %oney s&pply is 'o#n fo&r trillion in last fi"e years Bro#n/ 1, (Ellen, attorne& and "resident of the Public 7an5ing Institute, ?-)0-0), LDh& gEE Dont 'um"start the Econom&Hand Dhat DouldM htt"sJ--#ebofdebt,#ord"ress,com-)*0)-*?-)0-#h&-BeE-#ont-Fum"start-the-econom&-and#hat-#ould-)-1 None of these mo3es #ould dri3e the econom& into h&"erinflation, 2ccording to the Feds figures, as of 'ul& )*0*, the mone& su""l& #as actuall& [. trillion 4E!! than it #as in )**X, %hat means that as of that date, [. trillion more needed to be "um"ed into the mone& su""l& Fust to get the econom& bac5 to #here it #as before the ban5ing crisis hit, + eir epistemological !asis is fla#e' --- yperinflation t eories are non-falsifia!le an' itCs at a :? year lo# 5ara!ell/ 14 (]achar& Karabell, PhC from @ar3ard, historian, mone& manager and economist, "resident of Ri3er %#ice Research, #here he anal&=es economic and "olitical trends, 0-0X-0E, LInflation @a#5s 2re Daging Dar 2gainst %heir >#n @allucinationsM, htt"J--###,theatlantic,com-business-archi3e-)*0E-*0-inflation-ha#5s-are-#aging-#aragainst-their-o#n-hallucinations-)+(EEE-1 Earlier this #ee5 the 7ureau of 4abor !tatistics released its monthl& inflation re"ort , %he numbers came in at 0,( "ercent a &ear for all items, E/cluding the e3er-3olatile food and energ&, it #as 0,? "ercent, %hat8s about as lo# as inflation has been in the last I* &ears, >nl& 0?X+ (0,0 "ercent1, 0??X and )**0 (0,+ "ercent1, )**X (*,0 "ercent1 and )*0* (0,I "ercent1 ha3e come in lo#er, and a fe# &ears in the mid-)***s registered the same, %he disa""earance of inflation o3er the "ast )* &ears, ho#e3er, has barel& dented the "er3asi3e belief that inflation remains one of the greatest threats to economic stabilit& , %hese con3ictions "ersist in s"ite of all e3idence to the contrar&J Inflation is no#here 3isible, For man&, that is Fust "roof that #e are li3ing in a lull -- a "hon& #ar soon to be disru"ted #hen that age-old enem& rea""ears and #rea5s ha3oc, 2t the Federal Reser3e -- legall& mandated guardian of "rice stabilit& and res"onsible for monitoring and containing inflation -- the "resident of the Richmond Fed, 'effre& 4ac5er, has been #arning that the current "olic& of 3er& lo# interest rates and e/"ansion of the balance sheet is almost certain to s"ar5 inflation in the near future, In Euro"e, those 3ie#s are e3en more
dee"l& held, %he German 7undesban5 -- still seared b& memories of h&"erinflation in the 0?)*s and the colla"se of "olitical order that ga3e rise to the Na=is -- remains e3er 3igilant, Its "resid ent, 'ens Deidman, is strongl& o""osed to man& of

the recent so3ereign bailouts to "reser3e the euro on the grounds that good mone& chasing bad #ill s"ar5 inflation, %hese officials tend to be firm &et measured in their concern - something that cannot be said of "o"ulist "oliticians and anal&sis, %he %ea Part& is fueled not Fust b& debt animus but b& a dee"-seated belief that $real$ inflation is much higher than #hat the go3ernment re"orts, and it insists that the s"ending habits of the go3ernment #ill end in the colla"se of the dollar, h&"erinflation and the go3ernment8s de facto stealing from hard-#or5ing

2mericans8 mone&, %hat is the fear of gold bugs, and added to the mi/ are the 3ie#s of former Re"resentati3e Ron Paul and his son, !enator Rand Paul (R-K&,1, that the Fed is "utting the 9nited !tates in inflation "eril, Man& "rofessional in3estors and economists are similarl& con3inced that the current "olicies of =ero interest rates and deficit s"ending are setting the stage for massi3e inflation, @o# to e/"lain the in3erse relationshi" bet#een inflation concerns and inflation realities6 Ges, lo# inflation in recent &ears has been Fu/ta"osed #ith modest economic gro#th and #age stagnation for most 2mericans - as #ell as for most Euro"eans and 'a"anese, Gi3en that "erce"tions of economic #ell-being are ultimatel& tied to dis"osable income, these forces ha3e largel& canceled each other out, In addition, "eo"le tend to be acutel& a#are of the 3olatilit& of energ& and food "rices, #hich ha3e s"i5ed - and then receded - man& times in "ast &ears, Get e3en #ith food and fuel, inflation "erce"tions can be dece"ti3e, Man& "eo"le are a#are that the "rice of a loaf of bread has risen from less than .* cents in the 0?(*s to an a3erage of more than [) toda&, Food "rices ha3e also risen "eriodicall& o3er the "ast fe# &ears in the face of global demand and droughts, %hat cements a "erce"tion of inflation, Get o3er the "ast fe# decades, food as an o3erall "ercent of income has gone do#n, do#n and do#n , In 0?(), 2mericans s"ent 0I "ercent of their dis"osable income on foodN toda&, that figure is 00 "ercent , %he onl& shift has been in eating out "eo"le s"end more on restaurants and much less on food at home, 2nd that has ha""ened e3en as incomes ha3e stagnated, Gasoline, #hich has fluctuated #idel&, has maintained a stead& share of dis"osable income for decades, at about E,I "ercent, #hich is no# decreasing because of "roduction from shale oil de"osits and e3er-more-efficient 3ehicles, >ne of the strongest arguments for 3igilance against inflation comes from economists follo#ing the dicta of Milton Friedman that $inflation is al#a&s and e3er&#here a monetar& "henomenon,$ In that 3ie#, the actions of go3ernments and central ban5ers are the determining factor, and the e/"erience of the )*th centur& #as that inflation often follo#ed go3ernment "olicies, es"eciall& "romiscuous go3ernment s"ending, !ince that is #hat ha""ened in the "ast, man& are firml& con3inced that it #ill, "erforce, ha""en in the future, >ne "ernicious clich< is that histor& re"eats itself, It doesn8t, @istorians re"eat each other - and economists then "ile on #ith theorems based on a limited amount of histor& that then constitute $la#s$ of economics, 9nBuestionabl&, inflation #as a s&stemic threat not Fust in the )*th centur& but for centuries before, %hus the absence of inflation toda& is e/"lained as an anomal& soon to endN an artificial state of affairs generated b& eas&-mone& "olicies of go3ernments and central ban5s around the #orldN or a false statement in that inflation is underre"orted b& go3ernments interested in "retending it doesn8t e/ist, %he 3irtue of these arguments is that the& are not falsifiable, Gou can8t "ro3e there isn8t a go3ernment cons"irac& about $real$ inflation, and &ou can8t "ro3e that something isn8t about to ha""en, If &ou argue that there has been a s&stemic shift - that, sa&, technolog& and globali=ation ha3e
combined to send manufactured goods e3er lo#er (#ith food as much a manufactured good as a com"uter1 - &ou can easil& be dismissed for foolishl& contending that $this time it8s different,$ Dhat, then, is the statute of limitations for inflation6 @o# long must there be lo#, lo# inflation before the ris5 of it is Fudged as de minimus6 Ges, it might rear u" in future, Ges, "ast "atterns ma& "ro3e

"ossibilit& and the ris5 - Fust as it #ould be foolish not to forget that #e still li3e in a #orld suffused #ith nuclear #ea"ons, Get it #ould be eBuall& foolish to ignore the #eight of e3idence about lo# inflation e3er&#here around the globe, not Fust for the "ast fe# &ears but o3er the "ast fe# decades, %he conseBuences of "lanning for a #ar that ne3er ha""ens can be Fust as deleterious as fighting that #ar un"re"ared, If inflation is not the "ro/imate ris5 of toda&8s econom&, then #e are radicall& misFudging our "roblems and missing solutions, If inflation is not a dire threat, then #e need not be so concerned about go3ernment s"ending or central ban5 "olic&, De should instead focus on the abilit& of our national economies and the global economic s&stem to generate sustainable li3ing standards for billions of "eo"le, Right no#,
correct, It #ould be foolish not to be on guard about the so man& are so fi/ated on inflation that these other challenges recei3e short shrift, If inflation re3i3es, that fi/ation ma& be Fustified, If not, #e #ill ha3e sBuandered our time chasing echoes instead of meeting our "resent #ith e&es #ide o"en to the "ossibilities of the future,

A+F Free +ra'e DA ,AC

+ra'e conflicts #onCt escalate

NLE P0$ ('ose"h, Cean of the Kenned& !chool of Go3ernment W @ar3ard 9ni3ersit&, Dashington guarterl&, Dinter1

%he lo# li5elihood of direct great "o#er clashes does not mean that there #ill be no tensions bet#een
them, Cisagreements are li5el& to continue o3er regional conflicts, li5e those that ha3e arisen o3er ho# to deal #ith the conflict in the former Gugosla3ia, Efforts to sto" the s"read of #ea"ons of mass destruction and means of their deli3er& are another source of friction, as is the case o3er Russian and Chinese nuclear coo"eration #ith Iran, #hich the 9nited !tates steadfastl& o""oses, %he sharing of burdens and res"onsibilities for maintaining international securit& and "rotecting the natural en3ironment are a further subFect of debate among the great "o#ers, Furthermore, in contrast to the 3ie#s of classical 4iberals, increased trade and economic interde"endence

can increase as #ell as decrease conflict and com"etition among trading "artners, %he main "oint, ho#e3er, is that such disagreements are 3er& unli5el& to escalate to militar& conflicts, +ra'e is resilient2 C icago +ri!&ne/ P8 ZL2fter Coha,M X-?, htt"J--###,chicagotribune,com-ne#s-o"inion-chi*X*?edit)aug*?,*,(XI?+XX,stor&R E3en "eo"le in3ol3ed dail& in ongoing international trade aren8t reacting much differentl& , %he&8re
bu&ing and selling goods across borders and oceans, dealing #ith the logistical com"lications of high oil "rices, currenc& fluctuations, the "rice of labor, unit cost, Bualit& control and the li5e, %his doesn8t mean that a successful com"letion of the Coha tal5s #ouldn8t ha3e mattered, It8s a big deal that for the first time in half a centur&, global trade tal5s ha3e failed, %he Coha tal5sH se3en &ears in negotiationH#ould ha3e slashed farm subsidies and further o"ened mar5ets for manufactured goods and ser3ices, 7ut #ith or #ithout Coha, countries #ill continue to trade aggressi3el&, %he benefits and

o""ortunities are Fust too great, International trade e/"anded from .* "ercent of the #orld econom& in 0??* to more than II "ercent b& )**., according to the Dorld 7an5, %he fastest gro#ing countriesH
among them China, :ietnam, IrelandH#ere those that e/"anded their trade, Countries left behind, including much of sub-!aharan 2frica, traded the least, E3en #ith the current slo#do#n in the international econom&, the D%>

"redicts that trade #ill still gro# .,I "ercent this &ear, (%hat #ill be do#n from X,I "ercent in )**+ and I,I
"ercent last &ear,1

+ra'e 'oes not sol"e #ar;t ereCs no correlation !et#een tra'e an' peace

%A9+IN et al P8 (Philli"e, 9ni3ersit& of Paris 0 PantheonH!orbonne, Paris !chool of Economics, and Centre for
Economic Polic& ResearchN %hierr& M2GER, 9ni3ersit& of Paris 0 PantheonH!orbonne, Paris !chool of Economics, CEPII, and Centre for Economic Polic& Research, Mathias %@>ENIG, 9ni3ersit& of Gene3a and Paris !chool of Economics, %he Re3ie# of Economic !tudies (I1 Coes globali=ation "acif& international relations 6 %he LliberalM 3ie# in "olitical science argues that increasing trade flo#s and the s"read of free mar5ets and democrac& should limit the incenti3e to use militar& force in interstate relations, %his 3ision, #hich can "artl& be traced bac5 to Kants Essa& on Per"etual Peace (0(?I1, has been 3er& influentialJ %he main obFecti3e of the Euro"ean trade integration "rocess #as to "re3ent the 5illing and destruction of the t#o Dorld Dars from e3er ha""ening again,0 Figure 0 suggests) ho#e3er, that during the 0X(*W)**0 "eriod, the correlation bet#een trade

o"enness and militar& conflicts is not a clear cut one, %he first era of globali=ation, at the end of the 0?th centur&, #as a "eriod of rising trade o"enness and multi"le militar& conflicts, culminating #ith Dorld Dar I, %hen, the inter#ar "eriod #as characteri=ed b& a simultaneous colla"se of #orld trade and conflicts, 2fter Dorld Dar II, #orld trade increased ra"idl& , #hile the number of conflicts decreased (although the ris5 of a global conflict #as ob3iousl& high1, %here is no clear e3idence that the 0??*s, during #hich trade flo#s increased dramaticall&, #as a "eriod of lo#er "re3alence of militar& conflicts, e3en ta5ing into account the increase in the number of so3ereign states,

A+F Genoci'e DA ,AC

Any &se of n&clear #eapons ris.s e@tinction t is n&llifies all calc&lations of costs an' !enefits an' m&st !e a"oi'e' at all costs 5ate!/ 0, --- Professor of Politics and Cirector of the Program in Political Philoso"h& at Princeton (George, %he Inner >cean, ",00*-0001
%he highest #orth of !chell8s boo5 lies in his insistence that #e should all contem"late the nuclear situation from the "ers"ecti3e of "ossible human e/tinction and be o3ercome b& the obligation, no matter #hat, to tr& to a3oid human e/tinction, Get as !chell sa&s, human e/tinction (as #ell as the e/tinction of most s"ecies in nature1 is not the intention of an&one in "o#er, Dhat must be seen is that the absolute end can come about e3en though no one intends it, $De can do it,$ he sa&s, $onl& if #e don8t Buite 5no# #hat #e8re doing,$ !chell8s #or5 attem"ts to force on us an ac5no#ledgment that sounds far-fetched and e3en ludicrous, an ac5no#ledgment that the

"ossibilit& of e/tinction is carried b& an& use of nuclear #ea"ons, no matter ho# limited or ho# seemingl& rational or seemingl& morall& Fustified, @e himself ac5no#ledges that there is a difference bet#een
"ossibilit& and certaint&, 7ut in a matter that is more than a matter, more than one "ractical matter in a 3ast series of "ractical matters, in the $matter$ of e/tinction, #e are obliged to treat a "ossibilit&-a genuine "ossibilit&-as

certaint&, @umanit& is not to ta.e any step that contains e"en t e slig test ris. of e@tinction2
%he doctrine of no-use is based on the "ossibilit& of e/tinction, !chell8s "ers"ecti3e transforms the subFect, @e ta5es us a#a& from the arid stretches of strateg& and as5s us to feel continuousl&, if 8#e can, and feel 5eenl& if onl& for an instant no# and then, ho#

utterl& distinct the nuclear #orld is, Nuclear discourse must 3i3idl& register that distincti3e-ness, It is of no moral account that e/tinction ma& be onl& a slight "ossibilit&, No one can sa& ho# great the "ossibilit& is, but no one has &et credibl& denied that b& some seBuence or other a "articular use of nuclear #ea"ons ma& lead to human and natural e/tinction, If it is not impossi!le it m&st !e treate' as certainF t e loss signifie' !y e@tinction n&llifies all calc&lations of pro!a!ility as it n&llifies all calc&lations of costs an' !enefits2

D&r impacts come first t eir moral t eori6ing fails in t e political realm Ignatieff/ > (Michael, member of the inde"endent international commission on Koso3o, chaired b& 'udge Richard Goldstone of !outh 2frica, former fello# at Kings College, LGetting IraB Drong,M Ne# Gor5 %imes, X-I-*(, htt"J--###,n&times,com-)**(-*X-*I-maga=ine-*IiraB-t,html6 eiOI*?*PenOcbE*.d*.accc+dfXPe/O0E.E?++.**P"artnerOrssuserlandPemcOrssP"a ge#antedOall1
%he unfolding catastro"he in IraB has condemned the "olitical Fudgment of a "resident, 7ut it has also condemned the Fudgment of man& others, m&self included, #ho as commentators su""orted the in3asion, Man& of us belie3ed, as an IraBi e/ile friend told me the night the #ar started, that it #as the onl& chance the members of his generation #ould ha3e to li3e in freedom in their o#n countr&, @o# distant a dream that no# seems, @a3ing left an academic "ost at @ar3ard in )**I and returned home to Canada to enter "olitical life, I 5ee" re3isiting the IraB debacle, tr&ing to understand e/actl& ho# the Fudgments I no# ha3e to ma5e in the "olitical arena need to im"ro3e on the ones I used to offer from the sidelines, I3e learned that acBuiring good Fudgment in "olitics starts #ith 5no#ing #hen to admit &our mista5es, %he "hiloso"her Isaiah 7erlin once said that the trouble #ith academics and commentators is that the& care more about #hether ideas are interesting than #hether the& are true, Politicians li3e b& ideas Fust as much as "rofessional thin5ers do, but the& cant afford the lu/ur& of entertaining ideas that are merel& interesting, %he& ha3e

to #or5 #ith the small number of ideas that ha""en to be true and the e3en smaller number that ha""en to be a""licable to real life, In academic life, false ideas are merel& false and useless ones can be fun to "la& #ith, In "olitical life, false ideas can ruin the li3es of millions and useless ones can #aste "recious resources, 2n intellectuals res"onsibilit& for his ideas is to follo# their conseBuences #here3er the& ma& lead, 2 "oliticians res"onsibilit& is to master those conseBuences and "re3ent them from doing harm, I3e learned that good Fudgment in "olitics loo5s different from good Fudgment in intellectual life, 2mong intellectuals, Fudgment is about generali=ing and inter"reting "articular facts as instances of some big idea, In "olitics, e3er&thing is #hat it is and not another thing, !"ecifics matter more than generalities, %heor& gets in the #a&, %he attribute that under"ins
good Fudgment in "oliticians is a sense of realit&, LDhat is called #isdom in statesmen,M 7erlin #rote, referring to figures li5e Roose3elt and Churchill, Lis understanding rather than 5no#ledge H some 5ind of acBuaintance #ith rele3ant facts of such a 5ind that it enables those #ho ha3e it to tell #hat fits #ith #hatN #hat can be done in gi3en circumstances and #hat cannot, #hat means

#ill #or5 in #hat situations and ho# far, #ithout necessaril& being able to e/"lain ho# the& 5no# this or e3en #hat the& 5no#,M Politicians cannot afford to cocoon themsel3es in the inner #orld of their o#n imaginings, %he& must not confuse the

#orld as it is #ith the #orld as the& #ish it to be, %he& must see IraB H or an&#here else H as it is, Conse1&entialism is goo' Greene/ 1? ('oshua, 2ssociate Professor of !ocial science in the Ce"artment of Ps&cholog& at @ar3ard 9ni3ersit&, L%he !ecret 'o5e of Kants !oul "ublished in Moral Ps&cholog&J @istorical and Contem"orar& Readings,M @istorical and Contem"orar& Readings, ###,fed,cuh5,edu,h5-|lchang-material-E3olutionar&-Ce3elo"mental-Greene-Kant!oul,"df1 Dhat turn-of-the-millennium science is telling us is that human moral Fudgment is not a "ristine rational enter"rise, that our moral Fudgments are dri3en b& a hodge"odge of emotional dis"ositions, #hich themsel3es #ere
sha"ed b& a hodge"odge of e3olutionar& forces, both biological and cultural, 7ecause of this, it is e/ceedingl& unli5el& that there is an& rationall& coherent normati3e moral theor& that can accommodate our moral intuitions, Moreo3er, an&one #ho claims to ha3e such a theor&, or e3en "art of one, almost certainl& doesn8t, Instead, #hat that "erson "robabl& has is a moral rationali=ation, It seems then, that #e ha3e someho# crossed the infamous $is$-$ought$ di3ide, @o# did this ha""en6 Cidn8t @ume (@ume, 0?(X1 and Moore (Moore, 0?++1 #arn us against tr&ing to deri3e an $ought$ from and $is6$ @o# did #e go from descri"ti3e scientific theories concerning moral "s&cholog& to s5e"ticism about a #hole class of normati3e moral theories6 %he ans#er is that #e did not, as @ume and Moore antici"ated, attem"t to deri3e an $ought$ from and $is,$ %hat is, our method has been inducti3e rather than deducti3e, De ha3e inferred on the basis of the a3ailable e3idence that the "henomenon of rationalist deontological "hiloso"h& is best e/"lained as a rationali=ation of e3ol3ed emotional intuition (@arman, 0?((1, Missing the Ceontological Point I sus"ect that rationalist deontologists #ill remain unmo3ed b& the arguments "resented here, Instead, I sus"ect, the&

#ill insist that I ha3e sim"l& misunderstood #hat Kant and li5e-minded deontologists are all about, Ceontolog&, the&
#ill sa&, isn8t about this intuition or that intuition, It8s not defined b& its normati3e differences #ith conseBuentialism, Rather, deontolog& is about ta5ing humanit& seriousl&, 2bo3e all else, it8s about res"ect for "ersons, It8s about treating others as fello# rational creatures rather than as mere obFects, about acting for reasons rational beings can share, 2nd so on (Korsgaard, 0??+aN Korsgaard, 0??+b1, %his is, no doubt, ho# man& deontologists see deontolog&, 7ut this insider8s 3ie#, as I83e suggested, ma& be misleading, %he "roblem, more s"ecificall&, is that it defines deontolog& in terms of 3alues that are not

distincti3el& deontological, though the& ma& a""ear to be from the inside, Consider the follo#ing analog& #ith religion,
Dhen one as5s a religious "erson to e/"lain the essence of his religion, one often gets an ans#er li5e thisJ $It8s about lo3e, reall&, It8s about loo5ing out for other "eo"le, loo5ing be&ond oneself, It8s about communit&, being "art of something larger than oneself,$ %his sort of ans#er accuratel& ca"tures the "henomenolog& of man& "eo"le8s religion, but it8s ne3ertheless inadeBuate for distinguishing religion from other things, %his is because man&, if not most, non-religious "eo"le as"ire to lo3e dee"l&, loo5 out for other "eo"le, a3oid self-absor"tion, ha3e a sense of a communit&, and be connected to things larger than themsel3es, In other #ords, secular humanists and atheists can assent to most of #hat man& religious "eo"le thin5 religion is all about, From a secular humanist8s "oint of 3ie#, in contrast, #hat8s distincti3e about religion is its commitment to the e/istence of su"ernatural entities as #ell as formal religious institutions and doctrines, 2nd the&8re right, %hese things reall& do distinguish religious from non-religious "ractices, though the& ma& a""ear to be secondar& to man& "eo"le o"erating from #ithin a religious "oint of 3ie#, In the same #a&, I belie3e that most of the standard deontological-Kantian self-characteri=atons fail to distinguish deontolog& from other a""roaches to ethics, (!ee also Kagan (Kagan, 0??(, "", (*-(X,1 on the difficult& of defining deontolog&,1 It seems to me that conseBuentialists, as much as an&one else, ha3e

res"ect for "ersons, are against treating "eo"le as mere obFects, #ish to act for reasons that rational creatures can share, etc, 2 conseBuentialist res"ects other "ersons, and refrains from treating them as mere obFects, b& counting e3er& "erson8s #ell-being in the decision-ma5ing "rocess,
4i5e#ise, a conseBuentialist attem"ts to act according to reasons that rational creatures can share b& acting according to "rinci"les that gi3e eBual #eight to e3er&one8s interests, i,e, that are im"artial, %his is not to sa& that conseBuentialists and deontologists don8t differ, %he& do, It8s Fust that the real differences ma& not be #hat deontologists often ta5e them to be, Dhat, then, distinguishes deontolog& from other 5inds of moral thought6 2 good strateg& for ans#ering this Buestion is to start #ith concrete disagreements bet#een deontologists and others (such as conseBuentialists1 and then #or5 bac5#ard in search of dee"er "rinci"les, %his is #hat I83e attem"ted to do #ith the trolle& and footbridge cases, and other instances in #hich deontologists and conseBuentialists disagree, If &ou as5 a deontologicall&-minded "erson #h& it8s #rong to "ush someone in front of s"eeding

trolle& in order to sa3e fi3e others, &ou #ill get characteristicall& deontological ans#ers, !ome #ill be tautologicalJ $7ecause it8s murderq$ >thers #ill be more so"histicatedJ $%he ends don8t Fustif& the means,$ $Gou ha3e to res"ect "eo"le8s rights,$ 7ut, as #e 5no#, these ans#ers don8t reall& e/"lain an&thing, because if &ou
gi3e the same "eo"le (on different occasions1 the trolle& case or the loo" case (!ee abo3e1, the&8ll ma5e the o""osite Fudgment, e3en though their initial e/"lanation concerning the footbridge case a""lies eBuall& #ell to one or both of these cases, %al5 about rights, res"ect for "ersons, and reasons #e can share are natural attem"ts to e/"lain, in $cogniti3e$ terms, #hat #e feel #hen #e find oursel3es ha3ing emotionall& dri3en intuitions that are odds #ith the cold calculus of conseBuentialism, 2lthough these e/"lanations are ine3itabl& incom"lete, there seems to be $something dee"l& right$ about them because the& gi3e

3oice to "o#erful moral emotions, 7ut, as #ith man& religious "eo"le8s accounts of #hat8s essential to religion, the& don8t reall& e/"lain #hat8s distincti3e about the "hiloso"h& in Buestion,

A+F %e@ican 9elations DA ,AC

*( %e@ico Cooperation no# +)) negotiations an' sec&rity policies Ha.im et2 al2 ,O1O14 W (Peter @a5im, member of the 2d3isor board and "resident emeritus of the Inter-2merican Cialogue 2ndr<s Ro=ental, member of the 2d3isor board, "resident of Ro=ental P 2sociados in Me/ico Cit& and senior fello# at the 7roo5ings Institution and 4aura Carlsen, director of the 2mericas "rogram at the Center for International Polic&, 4atin 2merica 2d3isor, Februar& 0, )*0E L@a3e Pros"ects for 9,!,-Me/ican Relations Im"ro3ed6M htt"J--###,thedialogue,org-"age,cfm6"ageICOE)P"ubICOE)))1 CF gJ Eduardo Medina-Mora formall& "resented his credentials to 9,!, President 7arac5 >bama on 'an, 0., succeeding 2rturo !aru5hAn as Me/ico8s ambassador to Dashington, %his &ear also mar5s the first time in 0) &ears that both countries are e/"eriencing a change in administrations at the same time, Dith a ne# administration in Me/ico s#orn in last month and a rene#ed mandate for >bama this &ear, ha3e the "ros"ects for 9,!,Me/ico relations im"ro3ed6 Dhat is on the hori=on for 9,!,-Me/ican relations, and ho# might the& change from recent &ears6 Dhich bilateral issues are most li5el& to be addressed6 Dhere do trade ties stand6S 2J Peter @a5im, member of the 2d3isor board and "resident emeritus of the Inter-2merican CialogueJ $4ast &ear8s concurrent elections in Me/ico and the 9nited !tates "roduced new opportunities for u"grading the t#o countries8 alread& robust economic "artnershi" and resol3ing longstanding bilateral tensions, %he decisi3e im"act of the 4atino 3ote on >bama8s re-election dramaticall& increased the "ros"ects for an immigration reform that #ould ma5e 9,!, la#s more humane and boost the 9,!, and Me/ican economies, No "olic& change #ould do more to increase good#ill bet#een the t#o nations, Me/ico8s econom& has sho#n remarkable vigor in the "ast three &ears, and the future could be e3en brighter, President PeUa Nieto is committed to far-reaching economic reforms, including the o"ening of Me/ico8s languishing energ& sector to "ri3ate "artici"ation, 2lthough it still faces some formidable o""osition, energ& reform has been gaining "olitical su""ort across the s"ectrum, Plans include freeing Me/ico8s national oil com"an& from suffocating constitutional constraints and allo#ing e/"loitation of Me/ico8s immense shale gas reser3es, %his #ould be a gamechanger for both nations--gi3ing Me/ico access to the ca"ital and technolog& it reBuires to remain a maFor oil e/"orter and setting the stage for a North 2merican energ& mar5et, %he 9,!, and Me/ico, along #ith Canada, are "artici"ating in the %rans-Pacific Partnershi" (%PP1 negotiations, If successful, the %PP #ould transform N2F%2 into an e3en stronger trade and in3estment regime, #ith common rules of origin and far greater reach, %he 9,!, and Me/ico also ha3e the o""ortunit& to initiate a significant bilateral discussion about alternati3e crime and drug control "olicies, including a hard loo5 at legali=ation measures, It has been decades since e3en modest head#a& #as made on an& of these issues, 7ut the shifting political climate in both countries has paved the way for change, It is no# u" to the t#o "residents to ta5e ad3antage of it,$ Cooperation ig no# itCs str&ct&rally resilient Woo' 1? W PhC in Political !tudies ` gueens, Professor ` I%2M in Me/ico Cit& (Cuncan, Doodro# Dilson International Center for !cholars, htt"J--###,statealliance"artnershi",org-resourcesQfiles-9!Me/icoQCoo"erationQRene#ableQ Energies,"df1--77 %he histor& of coo"eration bet#een Me/ico and the 9nited !tates in rene#able energ& is sur"risingl& long an' m&lti-facete' and it has been a 3ital, albeit unheralded, dimension to bilateral relations and a significant boost to rural and later national

de3elo"ment for o"er 18 years, Coo"eration in some areas goes bac5 e3en further than that, #ith geothermal energ& collaboration e/tending bac5 to the 0?(*s, 2lthough it is no# seen as crucial in the conte/t of efforts to mitigate climate change, rene#able energ& in Me/ico has and al#a&s has been seen as a de3elo"ment tool, hel"ing to bring energ& and em"lo&ment to marginali=ed areas that are not connected to the national electricit& grid, S 7eginning in the 0??*s, 9!2IC has in3ested in long term "rograms see5ing to increase o""ortunities for rene#able energ& in Me/ico, focusing mainl& on small "roFects in rural areas but also increasingl& on "roFects that a ha3ing a far-reaching im"act on Me/ico8s energ& "rofile, %he investments made by the US government in ma""ing Me/ico8s #ind energ& resources in >a/aca and other "arts of the countr& ha3e hel"ed to de3elo" a ne# source of energ& for the national grid and for "ri3ate consum"tion, and a ne# source of em"lo&ment, in3estment, technical e/"ertise and economic gro#th ,

A+F <ene6&elan )rolif DA ,AC

Mero c ance of <ene6&elan proliferation Ban'o# an' Hi'algo 11 W 7ando# is a senior fello# at the Cato Institute, s"eciali=ing in

foreign "olic& and ci3il liberties and holds a ',C, from !tanford 9ni3ersit&, @ildalgo is a "olic& 2nal&st on 4atin 2merica at the Center for Global 4ibert& and Pros"erit& and has a masters degree in International Commerce and Polic& from George Mason 9ni3ersit& (LCoug and 'uan Carlos, LCefusing :ene=uelas Nuclear %hreat6M %he @uffington Post on 'anuar& 0)th )*00, htt"J--###,cato,org-"ublications-commentar&-defusing-3ene=uelas-nuclear-threat1--@24 :ene=uelas close relationshi" #ith Iran and "lans to build nuclear facilities #ith Russian hel" are raising fears in Dashington of another nuclear crisis, %he incoming Re"ublican @ouse maForit& ma& "lace increased "ressure on the >bama administration to confront Caracas, Dashington need not "anic, 2 LChA3e= bombM is but
a distant "ossibilit& and much #ill ha""en in :ene=uela in the meantime, %he 9,!, should #or5 #ith other interested states to discourage Caracas from "ursuing nuclear #ea"ons, :ene=uela suffers from se3ere energ& shortages H "rimaril&

due to the ChA3e= go3ernments mismanagement H and theres reason to doubt ChA3e=s claim that his nuclear "rogram is
for "urel& "eaceful "ur"oses, For one H ChA3e=s arms "urchases far outstri" his nations securit& needs, >3er the last decade Caracas has "urchased fighters, attac5 helico"ters, antiaircraft missiles, and 0**,*** assault rifles, Get :ene=uela has been

at "eace since 0X)E and faces no e/ternal threats, Get e3en if :ene=uela chooses to "ursue nuclear #ea"ons, its far from certain that Caracas #ill succeed, %he difficult "rocess reBuires time, mone&, technolog&, and science, Ce3elo"ing nuclear #ea"ons is e3en harder in the face of international o""osition, Moreo3er, creating #ea"ons of deli3erable si=e "oses another significant challenge, Ces"ite ChA3e=s "retensions of global leadershi", his corru"tion-ridden and ine"t regime ma& be the biggest obstacle to a :ene=uelan nuclear bomb, Dorst is his gross economic mismanagement des"ite the go3ernments recei"t of billions in oil re3enues, %he countr&s infrastructure is crumbling, 4ast 2"ril an offshore
drilling rig rented b& PC:!2, :ene=uelas state-o#ned oil com"an&, san5, %he deal in3ol3ed a Buestionable rental contract #ith former PC:!2 e/ecuti3es and the accident #as ne3er "ro"erl& in3estigated, Earlier this &ear "o#er blac5outs caused b& a series of e/"losions at electrical "lants and inadeBuate maintenance at the Guri h&dro-electrical dam forced the go3ernment to im"ose electricit& rationing, :ene=uelas trans"ortation infrastructure is literall& falling a"art, %he go3ernment agenc& that manages the countr&s food su""l& let 0)*,*** tons of im"orted food rot in "ort #hile its o#n su"ermar5ets suffered shortages of basic sta"les, ChA3e=s anti-business "olicies discourage "ri3ate in3estment, 2lthough Caracas is a maFor oil su""lier, it cannot easil& afford an e/"ensi3e nuclear "rogram, Dith the da&s of s5&roc5eting oil "rices o3er, at least in the foreseeable future, the go3ernment faces serious financial difficulties, For e/am"le, ChA3e=s regime o#es Colombian businesses a""ro/imatel& [I** million for "ast e/"orts, PC:!2 has dela&ed "a&ments to its contractors, 2fter ChA3e=s allies lost the legislati3e elections in >ctober, his go3ernment launched an e/"ro"riation s"ree but onl& ? "ercent of the confiscated industries ha3e been "aid for, Moreo3er, ChA3e= is not certain to retain "o#er in the face of a contracting econom&, staggering crime rate, unbridled corru"tion and an increasingl& united o""osition, E3en if he #ins reelection in )*0), ChA3e= li5el& #ill find it more difficult to achie3e his international ambitions, >b3iousl&, it #ould be foolish to dismiss the "ossibilit& of :ene=uela becoming a nuclear "o#er, but it is eBuall& mista5en to

s"ea5 of Lan o3er-the-hori=on Cuban Missile Crisis,M in the #ords of the @eritage Foundations Peter 7roo5es,
:ene=uela is no#here close to or certain of becoming a threat to the 9,!, %hus, the >bama administration should de3elo" a longterm strateg& to head off an& LChA3e= bomb,M %he 9,!, should maintain a lo# "rofile in :ene=uelan affairs, %he chief issue in the u"coming election should be ChA3e=s disastrous record, %he less attention recei3ed b& 9,!, officials and "olic&, the less blame ChA3e= can off-load on Dashington, and the less he can claim that 2merica "oses a threat, 2t the same time, 2merican indi3iduals and grou"s should su""ort :ene=uelan ad3ocates of libert&, %he strongest o""osition to ChA3e= comes from grassroots acti3ists committed to a free societ&, %he 9,!, also should engage Mosco#, %he >bama administration should be "re"ared to ma5e concessions on matters of N2%> e/"ansion and missile defense as "art of a larger "olitical understanding, #hich #ould limit or end Russias militar& relationshi" and nuclear "lans #ith Caracas, Dashington should encourage :ene=uelas neighbors and 9nited Nations !ecurit& Council members to "ress Caracas, as a signator& of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation %reat&, to com"l& #ith International 2tomic Energ& 2genc& safeguards, Particularl& im"ortant are the roles of 7ra=il and 2rgentina, #hich ha3e had nuclear ambitions in the "ast, No one, other than, "resumabl&, @ugo ChA3e=, #ants :ene=uela to build nuclear #ea"ons, Dith the threat still distant, "atience is a 3irtue, %he 9,!, should assemble a di"lomatic coalition to constrain an& nuclear ambitions in Caracas,

*** AD<AN+AGE CD*N+E9)LAN(

F+AA C) 1NC
+ e *nite' (tates fe'eral go"ernment s o&l' restart negotiation of a Free +ra'e of t e Americas agreement mo'ele' after t e Nort American Free +ra'e Agreement as 'escri!e' !y t e Carran6a e"i'ence2 9estores *2(2 infl&ence in Latin America --- &nprece'ente' tra'e ens&res economic 'ominance Carran6a/ E (Cr, Mario E,, 2ssociate Professor of Political !cience, %e/as 2 P M 9ni3ersit&Kings3ille, Ph,C,, 9ni3ersit& of Chicago, L42%IN 2MERIC2N PER!PEC%I:EJ MERC>!9R, %@E FREE %R2CE 2RE2 >F %@E 2MERIC2!, 2NC %@E F9%9RE >F 9,!, @EGEM>NG IN 42%IN 2MERIC2,M )( Fordham Int8l 4,', 0*)?, Februar& )**., le/is, %ashma1
I, %@E FREE %R2CE 2RE2 >F %@E 2MERIC2! NEG>%I2%I>N!

%he F%22 negotiations #ere formall& launched at the !econd !ummit of the 2mericas in !antiago, Chile, on 2"ril 0X-0?, 0??X, %he F%22 #as originall& concei3ed as an e/tension of the N2F%2 model to the rest of the Destern @emis"here, @o#e3er, the inabilit& of President Clinton to obtain $fast-trac5$ authorit& from the 9,!, Congress and the 3ictor& of the 7ra=il-MERC>!9R "osition during the negotiations to negotiate from 0??. through 0??X eliminated the N2F%2 e/tension a""roach
(also 5no#n as the hub-and-s"o5es model1 and established a more balanced format for the negotiations, 2t the %rade Ministerial Meeting in !an 'ose, Costa Rica, on March 0?, 0??X, the 9nited !tates had to ma5e significant concessions, First, the F%22 "rocess #ould be a single underta5ing (#here nothing is agreed until e3er&thing is agreed u"on1, !econd, countries can negotiate as members of a sub-regional trading bloc and $the F%22 can co-e/ist #ith bilateral and sub-regional agreements, to the e/tent that the rights and obligations under these agreements are not co3ered b& or go be&ond the rights and obligations of the F%22,$ ) 2s Gilmore notes, $the 9nited !tates "osition is considerabl& #ea5er in this format than under the 8hub and s"o5es8 a""roach, as it #ill

face the gro#ing economic "o#er of 7ra=il and MERC>!9R in achie3ing man& of its trade obFecti3es,$ E 2lthough the 9nited !tates acce"ted the creation of a negotiating grou" for agriculture - a 5e& "roblem for man&
4atin 2merican countries see5ing to sell in the 9,!, mar5et - most of the other negotiating grou"s deal #ith the dee" integration agenda of the 9nited !tates, !ince 0??X, nine technical #or5ing grou"s ha3e Zb0*E0R been in3ol3ed in the F%22 negotiationsJ (01 mar5et access, ()1 agriculture, (E1 ser3ices, (.1 in3estment, (I1 go3ernment "rocurement, (+1 intellectual "ro"ert& rights, ((1 subsidies, antidum"ing, and counter3ailing duties, (X1 dis"ute settlement, and (?1 com"etition "olic&, . 2lthough the F%22 tal5s ha3e made significant "rogress at the technical le3el, considerable "olitical obstacles remain

to achie3e a F%22 on schedule in 'anuar& )**I, %he commitment to ma5e concessions, es"eciall&, but not onl& on the
"art of the 9nited !tates and 7ra=il is still missing, 2s Poitras notes, $finding common ground

bet#een the N2F%2 three and the rest of the !tates in the 2mericas could ultimatel& transform hemis"heric relations,$ I @o#e3er, ma5ing N2F%2 com"atible #ith the
other sub-regional blocs in the Destern hemis"here is a formidable underta5ing, MERC>!9R and N2F%2 follo# different models of regional integration, MERC>!9R is an ambitious "roFect to become a customs union and a common mar5et, #hereas N2F%2 is a free trade area #hich allo#s the 9nited !tates to "ursue its dee" integration agenda #ith Me/ico and Canada through 3er& detailed go3erning clauses, %he N2F%2 treat& is 3er& broad in sco"e and e/tremel& detailed, #ith t#ent&-t#o cha"ters, )?I articles, and ninet& anne/es, In contrast, the %reat& of 2suncion #hich created MERC>!9R in March 0??0 has onl& t#ent&-four articles, %he !outhern Cone grou"ing is still loosel& organi=ed, #ith a strong inter-go3ernmental com"onent, e3en after the Protocol of >uro Preto, #hich ga3e MERC>!9R international "ersonalit&, If MERC>!9R sur3i3es the F%22 negotiations, it #ill "robabl& establish su"ranational institutions resembling those of the Euro"ean 9nion (the $E9$1, In contrast, the 9nited !tates is unli5el& to acce"t the creation of a su"ranational go3erning bod& in N2F%2, E3en if the F%22 negotiations can bridge the ga" bet#een N2F%2 and MERC>!9R, formidable obstacles remain to achie3e a balanced agreement bet#een the thirt&-four "artici"ating countries, %he greatest obstacle is the as&mmetric distribution Zb0*E)R of "o#er in the Destern @emis"hereJ $the 9! econom&, for e/am"le, is 0* times larger than that of 7ra=il, the second biggest econom& in the hemis"here, and almost 0** times larger than the combined total of all of the countries of Central 2merica and the Caribbean,$ + II, @EMI!P@ERIC REGI>N24I!M 2NC 9,!, @EGEM>NG From t e perspecti"e of t e *2(2 go"ernment and big business interests, t e F+AA offers a

&ni1&e opport&nity to pry open t e %E9CD(*9 mar.et (as 9,!, e/"orts and im"orts from the MERC>!9R region gre# steadil& in the 0??*s1, # ile ma.ing permanent t e r&les of t e neo-li!eral gameQ t e so-called HWas ington Consens&sH , that became the dominant ideological discourse in the region in the 0??*s, ( 2s !chott "uts it, $9! firms ha3e a 9,!, [ I* billion bet on the future of the MERC>!9R economies,$ X %he F%22 "roFect is aimed at loc5ing in a dee" integration agenda that if im"lemented #ould amount to the 3irtual anne/ation of the 4atin 2merican economies to the 9,!, econom&, much in the #a&

N2F%2 con3erted the Me/ican econom& in an a""endi/ of the 9,!, econom&, 2 N2F%2-st&le F%22 #ith a D%>-"lus format #ould eliminate all the e/isting barriers to 9,!, foreign in3estment in the region, e/tending international rules (or trade disci"lines1 from trade to in3estment, %he com"rehensi3e F%22 sought b& the 9nited !tates #ould o"en the 4atin 2merican mar5ets for a #ide range of 9,!, ser3ice industries, #hile eliminating national restrictions on go3ernment "rocurement and
establishing trade courts in #hich 9,!, multinational cor"orations #ould be able to sue the 4atin 2merican go3ernments o3er health, labor, and en3ironmental la#s, 2 N2F%2-st&le F%22 #ould also eliminate differences in national

regulator& regimes that ha3e discriminator& effects

Zb0*EER go3erning intellectual "ro"ert&, or discriminating against foreign com"etition,

on trade and in3estment, such as rules

F+AA C) (ol"ency ,NC

Allo#s t e *2(2 to regain military s&periority in Latin America --- loc.s in egemony <ega/ : ('uan, ',C, candidate at the 9ni3ersit& of Minnesota 4a# !chool, M,7,2 at the 9ni3ersit& of Florida, LChina8s Economic and Political Clout Gro#s in 4atin 2merica at the E/"ense of 9,!, Interests,M 0. Minn, ', Global %rade E((, !ummer )**I, le/is, %ashma1 %he F%22 #ould "ro3ide Fudicial tools beneficial to 9,!, domestic "roduction, For e/am"le, 9,!, multinational cor"orations #ould be able to sue 4atin 2merican go3ernments in s"ecial trade courts if those go3ernments allo# their cor"orations to cut corners b& ignoring en3ironmental la#s,
2dditionall&, #hen the #ages of 9,!, laborers increase, 9,!, firms ma& be able to use this Fudicial tool to sue 4atin 2merican go3ernments in order to ma5e sure that their #ages also increase, 0?I 2nother one-sided benefit for the 9nited !tates

is the elimination of national restrictions on go3ernment "rocurement, 9,!, com"anies could afford to bid for "ri=ed go3ernment contracts in militar& bases and "orts throughout 4atin 2merica, It is highl& unli5el& that 4atin 2merican com"anies could com"ete for similar go3ernment "roFects in the 9nited !tates, 0?+ + e F+AA, it is said, #o&l' allo# t e *nited (tates to reassert its egemony o"er Zb.*XR Latin America to com"ensate for the relati3e decline of 9,!, global economic "osition, 0?(

F+AA C) (ol"ency +ra'e Deficit

(ol"es t e tra'e 'eficit an' any ot er iss&es --- completely re"itali6es *2(2 glo!al lea'ers ip Carran6a/ E (Cr, Mario E,, 2ssociate Professor of Political !cience, %e/as 2 P M 9ni3ersit&Kings3ille, Ph,C,, 9ni3ersit& of Chicago, and cites 'ames Petras, 7artle Professor of !ociolog& at 7inghamton 9ni3ersit&, L42%IN 2MERIC2N PER!PEC%I:EJ MERC>!9R, %@E FREE %R2CE 2RE2 >F %@E 2MERIC2!, 2NC %@E F9%9RE >F 9,!, @EGEM>NG IN 42%IN 2MERIC2,M )( Fordham Int8l 4,', 0*)?, Februar& )**., le/is, %ashma1 'ames Petras has argued that the 9nited !tates $is "ushing to e/tend and dee"en its control Zof 4atin 2mericaR 3ia the F%22,$ 0) 2ccording to Petras, the F%22 is "art of the 9,!, $im"erial "roFect$ to consolidate $client regimes$ in 4atin 2merica, 0E A NAF+A-style F+AA #o&l' allo# t e *nited (tates to compensate t e relati3e 'ecline of its position in t e #orl' economy !y reasserting *2(2 egemony in t e Western emisp ere2 %he 9,!, gro#ing international debt burden, no# close to 9![ E trillion, is a""roaching E*_ of the 9,!, GCP, forcing the 9nited !tates to see5 ne# mar5ets for 9,!, e/"orts in order to reduce the 9,!, trade deficit and current account deficit, 0. From this "ers"ecti3e, the 9,!, rationale for the F%22 is to gain "ri3ileged access to MERC>!9R (#here 7ra=il is the big "ri=e1 before the sub-regional bloc manages to stri5e a free trade deal #ith the Euro"ean 9nion, In a #orld of com"eting regional trading blocs, the F%22 #ould allo# the 9nited !tates to use 4atin 2merica $as a staging ground for an im"ending battle for the #orld mar5et among the leading centers of ca"italist "o#er,$ 0I

F+AA C) (ol"ency A+F LA (ays No

Latin American nations may ate t e co&nterplan/ !&t t ey a"e no c oice !esi'es getting on !oar' --- ol'ing o&t 'estroys t eir economies Carran6a/ E (Cr, Mario E,, 2ssociate Professor of Political !cience, %e/as 2 P M 9ni3ersit&Kings3ille, Ph,C,, 9ni3ersit& of Chicago, and cites 4lo&d Gruber, 4ecturer in Political Econom& of Ce3elo"ment at the 4ondon !chool of Economics and Political !cience, L42%IN 2MERIC2N PER!PEC%I:EJ MERC>!9R, %@E FREE %R2CE 2RE2 >F %@E 2MERIC2!, 2NC %@E F9%9RE >F 9,!, @EGEM>NG IN 42%IN 2MERIC2,M )( Fordham Int8l 4,', 0*)?, Februar& )**., le/is, %ashma1
III, CEFEN!I:E INCEN%I:E! %> $72NCD2G>N$ DI%@ %@E 9NI%EC !%2%E! 4lo&d Gruber has argued that regional collecti3e action and the emergence of su"ranational regional institutions can be e/"lained b& the logic of go-it-alone "o#erJ Institutionali=ed coo"eration b& one grou" of actors (the #inners1 can ha3e the effect of restricting the o"tions a3ailable to another grou" of actors (the losers1, altering the rules of the game such that members of the latter grou" are better off "la&ing b& the ne# rules des"ite their strong "reference for the original, "re-coo"eration status-Buo, .* If Gruber is correct, all the 4atin 2merican countries

#ill end u" Fum"ing on the band#agon of the hemis"heric hegemonic "o#er for fear of being e/cluded from a hemis"heric accord that grants "referential access to the 9,!, mar5et , one of the largest mar5ets in the #orld, 2ccording to Gruber, the losers are forced to acce"t the institutional arrangements (including su"ranational institutions1 "ro"osed b& the $enacting coalition$ because the& ha3e no alternati3eJ %he #inners8 actions ha3e had the effect of remo3ing the status Buo from their choice sets, lea3ing them #ith #hat the& 3ie# as a bad o"tion (coo"erating #ith the #inners1 and an e3en #orse alternati3e (incurring the costs of e/clusion1, .0 Zb0*.)R In the earl& 0??*s, the e/tension of N2F%2, and
N2F%2-"lus scenarios #ere based on this frame#or5, For e/am"le, Roberto 7ou=as and others argued that after N2F%2, defensi3e incenti3es #ould lead the 4atin 2merican countries to eagerl& see5 either N2F%2 membershi" or bilateral free trade agreements #ith the 9nited !tates, $to a3oid the costs of e/clusion,$ .) %he assum"tion #as that a rule-constrained hegemonic

order under 9,!, leadershi" left the 4atin 2merican countries #ith no choice but to acce"t the rules of the game im"osed b& the 9nited !tates in e/change for 3ague "romises for access to the 9,!, mar5et, From this "ers"ecti3e, a free trade regime in the 2mericas #ould come into e/istence through the "rogressi3e
e/tension of N2F%2 (Gruber8s $enacting coalition$1 to Central 2merica, the Caribbean, and !outh 2merica, beginning #ith Chile,

For t ese co&ntries/ o&trig t opposition to NAF+A7s Hr&les of t e gameH #o&l' !e H'angero&s an' costly2$ .E !imilarl&, 2ndre# @urrell com"ared the $far stronger states$ of the 2sia Pacific region to
the $#ea5er$ !outh 2merican states, @e argued that the $balance of incenti3es$ #ould force the latter to acce"t the $maFor 9,!, obFecti3es$ in e/change for $more secure access to the crucial 9,!, mar5et$ ho"ing that $high le3els of institutionali=ation$ #ould e3entuall& $restrict their 3ulnerabilit& to the unilateral e/ercise of 9,!, "o#er,$ .. If the Gruber-7ou=as thesis is correct, band#agoning #ith the 9nited !tates is ine3itable and e3entuall& MERC>!9R and the other sub-

regional trading blocs in the Destern hemis"here #ill dance to the tune of the 9,!, 3ision of hemis"heric regionalism, @o#e3er, the histor& of the F%22 negotiations after the Miami (0??.1 and !antiago (0??X1
summits of the 2mericas has not follo#ed the logic of go-it-alone "o#er, >nl& Me/ico #as "re"ared to "a& the high entr& fees reBuired b& the 9nited !tates to acce"t a 4atin 2merican countr& as a reliable trading "artner, N2F%2 standards assumed man& conditions that #ere uniBue to Zb0*.ER Me/ico, 7ou=as argues that #hether other countries #ould be read& to "a& high $entr& fees$ #ill 3ar& $according to the si=e of the costs of e/clusion for those left out of an e/"anding N2F%2,$ .I %he costs of e/clusion #ere high for the Central 2merican and Caribbean countries but rather lo# for the MERC>!9R countries, 2rgentina to&ed for a #hile #ith the "ossibilit& of Foining N2F%2 to attract foreign in3estments but 7ra=il #as dee"l& concerned about the high short-term costs of entering N2F%2,

F+AA C) A+F Lin.s to )olitics

DoesnCt lin. to politics --- t e !&siness lo!!ies t at matter p&s for t e co&nterplan Carran6a/ E (Cr, Mario E,, 2ssociate Professor of Political !cience, %e/as 2 P M 9ni3ersit&Kings3ille, Ph,C,, 9ni3ersit& of Chicago, L42%IN 2MERIC2N PER!PEC%I:EJ MERC>!9R, %@E FREE %R2CE 2RE2 >F %@E 2MERIC2!, 2NC %@E F9%9RE >F 9,!, @EGEM>NG IN 42%IN 2MERIC2,M )( Fordham Int8l 4,', 0*)?, Februar& )**., le/is, %ashma1 2s originall& concei3ed, hemis"heric regionalism #as a strateg& on the "art of the Clinton administration, su""orted b& $internationalist$ business interests, $to 8loc5 in8 a "olitical econom& ideologicall& and strategicall& hos"itable to the rules of the neo-liberal game, $ +* For e/am"le, the fi3e-hundred 9,!, com"anies #ith the closest lin5s to 4atin 2merica are p&s ing for fast implementation of a NAF+A-style F+AA incor"orating all the trade disci"lines of the dee" integration agenda, +0 Get im"lementing the
Dashington Consensus undermined democrac& in 4atin 2merica and laid the basis for the bac5lash against globali=ation in the 0??*s,

A+F F+AA C) No (ol"ency ,AC

Co&nterplan is &nnecessary to sol"e --- c&rrent !ilateral tra'e agreements a"e similar effects --- only a ris. t at t e c&m!ersome process of t e co&nterplan 'erails progress Carran6a/ E (Cr, Mario E,, 2ssociate Professor of Political !cience, %e/as 2 P M 9ni3ersit&Kings3ille, Ph,C,, 9ni3ersit& of Chicago, L42%IN 2MERIC2N PER!PEC%I:EJ MERC>!9R, %@E FREE %R2CE 2RE2 >F %@E 2MERIC2!, 2NC %@E F9%9RE >F 9,!, @EGEM>NG IN 42%IN 2MERIC2,M )( Fordham Int8l 4,', 0*)?, Februar& )**., le/is, %ashma1 Zb0*E+R Regime theorists argue that there is no need for a multilateral regime #hen there are e/treme "o#er dis"arities bet#een a hegemonic "o#er and smaller "o#ers because the hegemon #ill rel& on its su"erior relational "o#er to im"ose its #ill through inde"endent decision ma5ing or, at the most, bilateral arrangements, 0? If !mith is correct, t e *nited (tates 'oes not really nee' t e F+AA to e@ercise egemony in t e Western emisp ere2 7ilateral free trade agreements ($F%28s$1, such as the one signed #ith Chile on 'une +, )**E, #ould allo# the 9nited !tates to obtain concessions from indi3idual countries #ithout going through the cumbersome F%22 "rocess, Latin American nations say no to t e co&nterplan Carran6a/ E (Cr, Mario E,, 2ssociate Professor of Political !cience, %e/as 2 P M 9ni3ersit&Kings3ille, Ph,C,, 9ni3ersit& of Chicago, L42%IN 2MERIC2N PER!PEC%I:EJ MERC>!9R, %@E FREE %R2CE 2RE2 >F %@E 2MERIC2!, 2NC %@E F9%9RE >F 9,!, @EGEM>NG IN 42%IN 2MERIC2,M )( Fordham Int8l 4,', 0*)?, Februar& )**., le/is, %ashma1 7ra=il has fe# defensi3e incenti3es for free trade band#agoning #ith the 9nited !tates and strong incenti3es not to sign u" to a N2F%2-st&le F%22, >n the other hand, the smaller 4atin 2merican and Caribbean economies ha3e more defensi3e incenti3es, including the need $to de3elo" their role as e/"ort and ser3ices "latforms for larger mar5ets ,,, Z#hile attractingR maFor #orld-class in3estments,$ ?E to stri5e bilateral
free trade agreements #ith the 9nited !tates, and are "re"ared to "a& entr& fees in areas such as go3ernment "rocurement, and "rotection of intellectual "ro"ert& and foreign in3estment, that are unacce"table for 7ra=il, Get, the smaller economies

ha3e strong disincenti3es to Foin a N2F%2-st&le F%22 #ithout com"ensator& mechanisms , similar
to those "ro3ided b& the Euro"ean 9nion to the lesser de3elo"ed Euro"ean countries and regions, ?. Dhether these countries Foin a N2F%2-st&le F%22 through bilateral deals #ith the 9nited !tates (a re3i3ed hub-and-s"o5es model1 or #hether the& abandon the F%22 "rocess and Foin a !outh 2merican trading bloc de"ends on the number of concessions MERC>!9R is "re"ared to ma5e in the 2ndean Communit&-MERC>!9R free trade tal5s, ?I

+ e co&nterplan fosters an &ns&staina!le form of egemony --- itCs a neoli!eral inferno t at scre#s o"er Latin America Carran6a/ E (Cr, Mario E,, 2ssociate Professor of Political !cience, %e/as 2 P M 9ni3ersit&Kings3ille, Ph,C,, 9ni3ersit& of Chicago, L42%IN 2MERIC2N PER!PEC%I:EJ MERC>!9R, %@E FREE %R2CE 2RE2 >F %@E 2MERIC2!, 2NC %@E F9%9RE >F 9,!, @EGEM>NG IN 42%IN 2MERIC2,M )( Fordham Int8l 4,', 0*)?, Februar& )**., le/is, %ashma1 Zb0*EXR %he no3elt& of hegemonic stabilit& theor& is the claim that smaller !tates gain e3en more than the international hegemon #hen the latter "ro3ides the "ublic good of leadershi" for the emergence of a stable international regime of free trade, )( + is claim is clearly &n#arrante' in t e *2(2OLatin American conte@t2 !e3eral studies ha3e sho#n that if a N2F%2-st&le Free %rade 2rea of the 2mericas comes into e/istence, the 9nited !tates #ill obtain greater benefits than its 4atin 2merican counter"arts #ill, $It is highl& doubtful that 4atin 2merican countries stand to gain much from entering into an arrangement #hich gi3es their rich counter"arts -- the 9!2 and Canada -a much greater "referential mar5et access than the latter are able to offer in return,,, , Ciscriminator& liberali=ation #ith the 9nited !tates under these circumstances is unli5el& to confer maFor gains and #ill,

3er& li5el&, lo#er

#elfare,$ )X If Me/ico8s e/"erience #ith N2F%2 is of an& guide, the 4atin 2merican countries are not li5el& to benefit from the F%22, unless the 9nited !tates trul& o"ens its large mar5et to 4atin
2merican agricultural and industrial e/"orts, In 0??I, the !alinas miracle colla"sed together #ith the Me/ican "eso crisis, 2s a result, em"lo&ment in manufacturing fell, the "oorl& "aid informal sector of the econom& gre#, and assets became more concentrated, 23erage #ages for most of Me/ico8s industrial #or5ers dro""ed 0*_ since the earl& 0??*s,,, , Relati3e social s"ending has declined since the late 0?X*s, %he North 2merican Ce3elo"ment 7an5 has &et to ha3e a maFor im"act on cleaning u" the 9,!,Me/ican border,,, , Man& Me/icans ha3e not &et su""ed at the table of free trade "ros"erit&, )?

2ccording to t#o Dorld 7an5 e/"erts, $o3erall, full Free %rade 2greement "references #ould raise 4atin 2merican e/"orts onl& X or ?Z_R ,,, 9,!, trade gains , "articularl& for highl& "rotected trans"ort and machiner& "roducts, are li5el& to be considerabl& greater than those for 4atin 2merica are in the 9,!, mar5et,$ E* + at 'estroys sol"ency Carran6a/ E (Cr, Mario E,, 2ssociate Professor of Political !cience, %e/as 2 P M 9ni3ersit&Kings3ille, Ph,C,, 9ni3ersit& of Chicago, L42%IN 2MERIC2N PER!PEC%I:EJ MERC>!9R, %@E FREE %R2CE 2RE2 >F %@E 2MERIC2!, 2NC %@E F9%9RE >F 9,!, @EGEM>NG IN 42%IN 2MERIC2,M )( Fordham Int8l 4,', 0*)?, Februar& )**., le/is, %ashma1 Zb0*E?R >""osition to the F%22 in 4atin 2merica is #ides"read, because it is "ercei3ed as a narro#, free-mar5et oriented agreement, $a brainchild of big business, #hose interests it #ould ser3e from start to finish,$ E0 >n the other hand, the 9nited !tates "resents itself as a bene3olent hegemon, attem"ting to debun5 the m&ths of the F%22 as an instrument of 9,!, "redator& hegemon&, %he >ffice of the 9,!, %rade Re"resentati3e has "roduced a series of fact sheets on the F%22 tr&ing to "ro3e that (a1
N2F%2 has been a huge success for the 9nited !tates and its N2F%2 "artners, E) (b1 far from s"reading "o3ert&, $free trade and o"en mar5ets are among the most "o#erful tools a3ailable to fight "o3ert&,$ EE and (c1 the F%22 #ould not "ro3ide e/cessi3e "ri3ileges to 9,!, cor"orations, such as the right to sue go3ernments to o3erturn la#s, E. Ces"ite the 9,!, rhetoric on the

benefits of free trade in the 2mericas, after the Cancun debacle in !e"tember )**E the 9nited !tates has de"lo&ed a coerci3e, rather than bene3olent, di"lomac&, 2ccording to hegemonic stabilit& theor&, EII $#hen "o#er is distributed as&mmetricall& but hegemon& is e/ercised in #a&s that do not benefit all states, s&!or'inate states #ill c afe &n'er t e Gcoerci"e3 lea'ers ip2 $ E+ 2fter Cancun, the 9nited !tates used its structural "o#er, attem"ting to destro& the Grou" of t#ent&-t#o de3elo"ing nations that stood their ground in the D%> negotiations, Economic threats and re"risals #ere deli3ered against the 4atin 2merican nations that had stood #ith 7ra=il at CancunJ %he im"o3erished island
nations of the Caribbean #ere told the& could forget about their ne#l& negotiated 9! trade agreement, %he& folded, Central 2merican countries #ere threatened #ith loss of the modest trade "references,,, alread& granted to their "roducts, Costa Rica,,,#as hammered Zb0*.*R - "ri3ati=e &our energ& and telecommunications sectors or be left in the cold - and ga3e in, Peru and Colombia both resigned from 4ula8s grou",,, , Dithin a fe# #ee5s, 4ula8s G-)) coalition had shrun5 to the G-0), E( Get, these defections

did not lead the smaller economies to band#agon #ith the 9nited !tates in the F%22 negotiations,
as "redicted b& the Gruber thesis, #hich is discussed in detail in the ne/t section, Gruber e/"licitl& ma5es the distinction bet#een $go-it-alone "o#er$ and coerci3e "o#er, 9nli5e the latter, go-it-alone "o#er does not reBuire the #inners to force their o""onents into submissionJ 2t no "oint does an&one in the "o#er-"olitics model I "ut for#ard coerce, or e3en attem"t to coerce, an&one else, Nor, for that matter, do the beneficiaries of coo"eration engage in 8lin5age "olitics,8 %he #inners do not get the losers to acBuiesce b& com"ensating them (3ia side "a&ments1 in some other s"here of interaction, %he losers acBuiesce because the& 5no#

that the #inners are in a "osition to "roceed #ithout them, EX + e co&nterplan lea's to massi"e anti-American !ac.las t ro&g o&t Latin America <ega/ : ('uan, ',C, candidate at the 9ni3ersit& of Minnesota 4a# !chool, M,7,2 at the 9ni3ersit& of Florida, LChina8s Economic and Political Clout Gro#s in 4atin 2merica at the E/"ense of 9,!, Interests,M 0. Minn, ', Global %rade E((, !ummer )**I, le/is, %ashma1 2n aggressi3e "ush for the F%22 b& the 9nited !tates could erase a decade of "rogress #ith regards to the lo#ering of tariffs and #ould ma5e it easier for leftist, anti-2merican, "ro-"rotectionist candidates to be elected to office throughout 4atin 2merica, %he 9nited !tates has em"lo&ed aggressi3e, if not
coerci3e, "ressure in "romoting the F%22, 0?* Robert ]oellic5, 9,!, Zb.*(R %rade Re"resentati3e, has said that $2merica #ill not #ait for the #on8t-do countries,$ 0?0 2n aggressi3e "ush for the F%22 also adds to the "erce"tion that onl&

the 9nited !tates #ill benefit from such an agreement, %his belief is further fueled b& the 9nited

!tates8s refusal to find a fair trade balance and the #a& in #hich the 9nited !tates has "ressured 7ra=il b& attem"ting to
isolate it, 0?) E3en seemingl& non-"rotectionist measures em"lo&ed b& the 9nited !tates are "ercei3ed as an attem"t to benefit the 9nited !tates, 4abor and en3ironmental standards, for e/am"le, are seen as e/cuses to remo3e an& com"etiti3e ad3antage that a smaller countr& ma& ha3e o3er the 9nited !tates, 0?E !tudies su""ort this notion and sho# that the F%22 #ill "ro3ide greater benefits to the 9nited !tates than to 4atin 2merica, 0?.

A+F F+AA C) No (ol"ency (ay No 1A9

+ e co&nterplan fails to get Latin American co&ntries on !oar' --- empirics pro"e Carran6a/ E (Cr, Mario E,, 2ssociate Professor of Political !cience, %e/as 2 P M 9ni3ersit&Kings3ille, Ph,C,, 9ni3ersit& of Chicago, L42%IN 2MERIC2N PER!PEC%I:EJ MERC>!9R, %@E FREE %R2CE 2RE2 >F %@E 2MERIC2!, 2NC %@E F9%9RE >F 9,!, @EGEM>NG IN 42%IN 2MERIC2,M )( Fordham Int8l 4,', 0*)?, Februar& )**., le/is, %ashma1
%he "ost-Cancun 9,!, offensi3e #as meant to soften u" 7ra=il for the Miami %rade Ministerial Conference in No3ember )**E, 2lthough the 9nited !tates managed to #ea5en the !outhern coalition formed in Cancun, 9,!,

economic threats #ere not enough to form a "ro-N2F%2-st&le F%22 in Miami, #here the countries #hich abandoned the G-)) still su""orted 7ra=il8s "ro"osal for a multi-s"eed F%22
(see belo#1, 7argaining "o#er, not go-it-alone "o#er #as at #or5 in Miami, %he 9nited !tates did not e3en offer meaningful side "a&ments to the smaller economies, such as redistributi3e mechanisms or some t&"e of com"ensation for the loss of trade ta/es that #ould result from the F%22, Go-it-alone "o#er #ould ha3e #or5ed in the earl& 0??*s, #hen N2F%2 e/tension #as still a "ossible "ath#a& to the F%22, and the

4atin 2merican countries still had strong defensi3e moti3ations to Foin an enlarged N2F%2, to a3oid the costs of e/clusion, @o#e3er, bet#een the Miami (0??.1 and !antiago (0??X1 Zb0*.0R summits of the 2mericas, the 9nited !tates #as unable to con3ince the !outh 2merican countries that a N2F%2-st&le F%22 #as in their best interests, Instead of a 9,!,-dominated Destern hemis"here trading
bloc, #hich #ould undermine sub-regional coo"eration, sub-regional trading blocs, "articularl& MERC>!9R, seemed to be trum"ing the "ossibilit& of a $Destern @emis"here Free %rade 2rea,$ For domestic "olitical reasons (including strong domestic "olitical o""osition to N2F%21, the 9nited !tates #as reluctant to mo3e from a mere regionalist o"tion to strongl& committing to a regionalist "olic& and thus $failed to "ro3ide strong leadershi" or a clear 3ision in its "olic& on hemis"heric regionalism,$ E?

E"eryone says no to t e co&nterplan --- t eyCll t&rn to C ina for tra'e instea' <ega/ : ('uan, ',C, candidate at the 9ni3ersit& of Minnesota 4a# !chool, M,7,2 at the 9ni3ersit& of Florida, LChina8s Economic and Political Clout Gro#s in 4atin 2merica at the E/"ense of 9,!, Interests,M 0. Minn, ', Global %rade E((, !ummer )**I, le/is, %ashma1 Man& 4atin 2merican go3ernments and their citi=ens do not su""ort the F%22, E) Presidents Nestor
Kirchner of 2rgentina ZbEX)R and 4ui= Inacio 4ula da !il3a of 7ra=il ha3e "ublicl& critici=ed it, EE Mr, EnriBue Es"inosa, a former trade negotiator for Me/ico, said $It #ould be 3er& bad to rush the negotiation in order to meet the deadline,$ E. President da !il3a recentl& tra3eled to China as "art of a mission to rearrange global trade, EI 7& negotiating trade deals #ith China,

7ra=il and 2rgentina are attem"ting to challenge 9,!, domination in free-trade tal5s in the Destern @emis"here, E+ %he maFor sources of friction include the "erce"tion of h&"ocris& on the "art of the 9nited !tates on free trade and the "erce"tion of lo"sided benefits gi3en to the 9nited !tates from the F%22, E( Man& 4atin 2mericans, correctl& or not, thin5 that the 9nited !tates treats their countries as inferior nations that are e/"ected to su""ort 9,!, interests, rather than as eBual trading "artners, EX 2nother source of friction ZbEXER is that man& 4atin 2mericans ha3e not seen the "romised benefits of ca"italism and ha3e gro#n s5e"tical of democrac& in general, E?
%he "ercei3ed 9,!, h&"ocris& #as at its highest le3el in March )**), #hen President 7ush im"osed tariffs on steel from 7ra=il and :ene=uela .* and announced a [ 0E* billion subsid& "ac5age for 9,!, farmers, .0 %he 7ush 2dministration also im"osed a si/t& "ercent surcharge on orange-Fuice concentrate from 7ra=il, "rotecting ?*,*** orange-gro#ing farmers in Florida, .) 7ra=il and 2rgentina are demanding that the 9nited !tates cut its agricultural subsidies, but the 9nited !tates insists that it #ill address the issue of agricultural subsidies onl& at the Dorld %rade >rgani=ation (D%>1, #hich offers a fle/ible legal frame#or5 #ithin #hich the 9nited !tates can continue its agricultural subsidies, .E %hese "rotectionist measures add to 4atin 2mericans8

"erce"tion of the 9nited !tates being not full& committed to free trade in the 2mericas, .. China, on the other hand, has lo#ered its o#n tariffs from fort&-one "ercent in 0??) to si/ "ercent after Foining the D%> in Cecember of )**0, .I It has the lo#est tariff "rotection of an& ZbEX.R de3elo"ing nation in the #orld, .+ %here is #ide disa""ointment in ca"italism and in democrac& among man& 4atin 2mericans, Political and economic mo3ements in 4atin 2merica made u" of unions, farmers, and Indian grou"s are becoming more common and "o#erful, .( %he adFustments that 4atin 2mericans ha3e made for globali=ation ha3e damaged certain sectors of their economies , "articularl& in infrastructure-related areas such as trans"ortation, communications, and technolog&, .X Man& 4atin 2mericans ha3e lost faith in the democratic "rocess and in "oliticians, .? %he& ha3e resorted to 3oting for "riests, e/-cou" leaders, and

ine/"erienced "o"ulists, I* man& of #hom ha3e successfull& encouraged sus"icion of ca"italism, I0 Man& 4atin 2mericans feel that the 9nited !tates does not treat their countries as eBual "artners, 2n integral "art
of the @is"anic culture can be summed u" #ith the #ord cortesia, meaning courtes&, I) It is this s&stem of $courtesies, traditions, and 3alues that bind 4atin 2merican societ&,$ IE @o#e3er, instead of res"ecting this cultural understanding, the 9nited !tates has alternated bet#een bull&ing and ignoring 4atin 2merica, I. 4atin 2mericans belie3e that during its Dar on

%error, ZbEXIR the 9nited !tates seems to a"e forgotten Latin America, II E3en before the
"reoccu"ation #ith the Dar on %error, 9,!, embassies in 7ra=il, 2rgentina, and Me/ico had no ambassadors for a "eriod of at least t#o &ears during the 0??*8s, I+ %his lac5 of cortesia and other sources of friction ha3e created the o""ortunit& for an economic and "olitical alternati3e6China re"lacing the 9nited !tates,

A+F F+AA C) Bra6il 9elations DA ,AC

E"eryone says no to t e co&nterplan --- fail&re e"iscerates *2(2 infl&ence in Latin America an' collapses *2(2-Bra6il relations Carran6a/ E (Cr, Mario E,, 2ssociate Professor of Political !cience, %e/as 2 P M 9ni3ersit&Kings3ille, Ph,C,, 9ni3ersit& of Chicago, L42%IN 2MERIC2N PER!PEC%I:EJ MERC>!9R, %@E FREE %R2CE 2RE2 >F %@E 2MERIC2!, 2NC %@E F9%9RE >F 9,!, @EGEM>NG IN 42%IN 2MERIC2,M )( Fordham Int8l 4,', 0*)?, Februar& )**., le/is, %ashma1 %he histor& of the F%22 negotiations sho#s the difficulties faced b& the 9 nited !tates in consolidating hegemon& o3er 4atin 2merica and the im"ortant role "la&ed b& MERC>!9R as a counter#eight to the e/ercise of 9,!, structural "o#er in the region, 0*. %he stalled Coha round of global trade negotiations and the "ros"ects for (at best1 a modest F%22 in )**I sho# that 9,!, %rade Re"resentati3e Robert ]oellic58s strateg& of com"etiti3e Zb0*+IR trade liberali=ation is in trouble, If the 9nited !tates is reall& interested in o"ening the
!outhern Cone mar5et for 9,!, e/"orts and in3estments, it should reconsider its refusal to discuss agricultural subsidies and 9,!, antidum"ing actions in the F%22, %he 9,!, should also recogni=e the 4atin 2merican countries8 legitimate demand for a fair F%22 #hich #ould trul& contribute to the region8s economic and social de3elo"ment and hel" lift millions of 4atin 2mericans from absolute "o3ert&, %he F%22 has "olitical im"lications aside the economic effects, In the absence of maFor concessions on the "art of the 9nited !tates, strong o""osition across 4atin 2merica to a N2F%2-st&le F%22 co&l' so&n' t e

'eat .nell for t e F+AA an' en' t e fragile Bra6ilian-*2(2 partners ip2 %hus, disillusionment #ith the 9nited !tates in 4atin 2merica #ould increase, and a ne# cha"ter ma& begin in the troubled histor& of 9,!,-4atin 2merican relations,

A+F F+AA C) Lin.s to )olitics ,AC

Co&nterplan lin.s to politics --- !&siness lo!!ies #ill rally against t e plan --- t&rns p&!lic opinion Carran6a/ E (Cr, Mario E,, 2ssociate Professor of Political !cience, %e/as 2 P M 9ni3ersit&Kings3ille, Ph,C,, 9ni3ersit& of Chicago, L42%IN 2MERIC2N PER!PEC%I:EJ MERC>!9R, %@E FREE %R2CE 2RE2 >F %@E 2MERIC2!, 2NC %@E F9%9RE >F 9,!, @EGEM>NG IN 42%IN 2MERIC2,M )( Fordham Int8l 4,', 0*)?, Februar& )**., le/is, %ashma1
I:, %@E F%22 NEG>%I2%I>N! 2! 2 %D>-4E:E4 G2ME 2NC %@E 9,!,-7R2]I4 !%R2%EGIC G2ME 2s Feinberg notes, 9,!, trade "olic& $does not arise from some unitar& 8national interest8 embodied in the "residenc& but rather boils u" from the man& strands of domestic "olitics, 2nd *2(2 society is 'eeply 'i"i'e' on tra'e policy , es"eciall& #ith

regard to de3elo"ing countries,$ I. Comestic "olitical constraints #ill significantl& affect the outcome of the F%22 negotiationsJ %he choices of 9,!, trade negotiators are greatl& affected b& the demands of a number of domestic constituencies, including labor, en3ironmental, and business grou"s, all of #hich in turn im"act the more general "erce"tions of the 2merican "ublic , lea3ing the
9!%R #ith a com"le/ and often contradictor& set of marching orders, 7ra=il, for its "art, encounters significant constraints in the form of intra-MERC>!9R and !outh 2merican relations, #hich must be carefull& managed if 7ra=il is to achie3e its goal of e/erting greater le3erage through bloc negotiation of the F%22, II 2n F%22 #ill dramaticall& affect domestic "olitics in

indi3idual countries, # ic

elps e@plain t e 7ra=ilian tough negotiating "osition at the Miami tal5s (Buietl& su""orted b& much of the rest of 4atin 2merica1 and the opposition to t e F+AA on t e part of se"eral 9,!, !&siness organi6ations and the 2F4-CI>, I+ In the end, the fate of the F%22 ma& be decided in the corridors of the 9,!, Congress, in the Dhite @ouse, and in the "residential "alace (the Planalto1 in 7rasilia, rather
than in the nine negotiating grou"s or in the trade ministerial conferences,