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Calculating population estimates Problem


The following table shows information about population change in the United States from 1993 to 1998. Birth and death rates are percentages. Numbers for population are approximate, and the numbers for both population and immigrants are given in thousands. Year Population Birth Rate Death Rate Number of Immigrants 1993 257,796 1.55 0.88 880.014 1994 260,292 1.52 0.88 804.416 1995 262,890 1.48 0.88 720.461 1996 265,180 1.47 0.87 915.900 1997 267,636 1.45 0.86 798.378 1998 270,029 1.46 0.87 660.477
Sources: National Center for Health Statistics, Immigration and Naturalization Service

Using matrices can help you make calculations with the information in the table. 1. The birth rate is given as a percentage of the current population. To nd the number of births in a year, you must multiply the population for that year by the decimal form of the birth rate. Use the table to nd the total number of births from 1993 to 1998. Examine these two matrices. 257, 796 260, 292 262, 890 265, 180 267, 636 270, 029 0.0155 0.0088 0.0152 0.0088 0.0148 0.0088 0.0147 0.0087 0.0145 0.0086 0.0146 0.0087 (a) What information is given in each matrix? Explain what data is included in each column and row. (b) Multiply the matrices, with the rst matrix on the left. As you do so, think about the process you go through to nd the productwhat data is multiplied and added
Problems with a Point: January 16, 2001 c EDC 2001

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Calculating population estimates: Problem

together. Then state what information is given by the product matrix. (c) Compare the process you followed to multiply these matrices with the process you followed in problem 1. How are they similar, and how are they dierent? Compare the results as well. 3. Now consider the following matrices:

B=

0.0155 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0152 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0148 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0147 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0145 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0146 0.0088 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0088 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0088 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0087 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0086 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0087

D=

P =

257, 796 260, 292 262, 890 265, 180 267, 636 270, 029

(a) What information is given in each matrix? (b) Find the product P B . Then state what information is given by the product matrix. (c) Find the product P D and state what information is given by the product matrix. (d) Except for the diagonals, every entry in matrices B and D is 0. What would have happened if any of the 0 entries were nonzero? 4. Create a matrix that will allow you to add the number of immigrants for each year to the population. Call the matrix M . Write an expression using the matrices from problems 2 and 3 that will give estimated populations for years 1994 to 1999. Calculate your expression. Compare the populations given in the table to the populations you calculated in problem 4.
Although I may seem like a better choice for the matrix name, that letter has special meaning for matrices: the identity matrix. Mathematicians avoid using I unless they mean the identity matrix.

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Problems with a Point: January 16, 2001

c EDC 2001

Calculating population estimates: Hints

Hints
Hint to problem 1: Find the number of births for each year, and add the results. Hint to problem 2a: You may want to convert the decimals in matrices B and D to percentages. Hint to problem 3a: Dont worry about what each row or column represents or what all the 0s mean. Focus on the nonzero data. Hint to problem 5: Approximate the population in the new year by starting with the current population, then adjust for births, deaths, and then immigrants. Hint to problem 6: First identify which years your nal matrix represents.

Problems with a Point: January 16, 2001

c EDC 2001

Calculating population estimates: Answers

Answers
1. 23,564 The rst matrix gives population data. Each column represents a dierent year. The second matrix gives birth and death rates as decimals (rather than as percentages). The rst column is the birth rates, and the second column is the death rates. Each row represents a dierent year. 23, 564 13, 830 (b) The product matrix gives the total births (23,564) and the total deaths (13,830) over the six years. 2. (a)

3. (a)

Matrix B gives the birth rates for each year, along the diagonal. Matrix D gives the death rates for each year. Matrix P is the population for each year. (b) P B = 3, 996 3, 956 3, 891 3, 898 3, 881 3, 942 The product matrix gives the number of births in each year. (c) P D = 2, 269 2, 291 2, 313 2, 307 2, 302 2, 349 The product matrix gives the number of deaths in each year. (d) If any of the 0 entries were nonzero, a proportion of the population for a year other than the one being calculated would be added. The result would not make sense. M= 880.014 804.416 720.461 915.900 789.378 660.477

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P + PB PD + M = 260, 403 262, 762 265, 188 267, 687 270, 004 272, 283 The populations and their dierences are as follows: Year Given Calculated Given Calculated 1993 257,796 1994 260,292 260,403 -111 1995 262,890 262,762 128 1996 265,180 265,188 -8 1997 267,636 267,687 -51 1998 270,029 270,004 25 1999 272,283

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Problems with a Point: January 16, 2001

c EDC 2001

Calculating population estimates: Solutions

Solutions
1. Multiply each population by the birth rate (as a decimal) for the same year, and then add the results together.

2. (a) See answers. (b) When multiplying the matrices, you rst multiply the population in each year by the birth rate for that year, then you add those products. Thats one entry in the product matrix, and its exactly the calculation needed to answer problem 1. Next, you do a similar calculation with the death rates, to get the other entry. So the entries are the total number of births and the total number of deaths over the six years. 3. (a) See answers. Identifying what each column and row represents can be tricky and so is not expected for this problem. Each column represents the birth rate for a particular year, each row represents the year. For the year 1994, the birth rate of the 1993 population is 0if a child were to be born in 1994, that birth would be included in the 1994 birth rate, not the 1993 rate. So the 1st entry in the 2nd row is 0. (b) For each entry, you multiply all but one population by 0. That one population is multiplied by the birth rate for the same year. So the product matrix gives the number of births for each year. (c) This part works the same as part (b) except the result is the number of deaths for each year. (d) See answers. To add the data, you can just add two matrices. To add, the matrices must have the same dimensions. Put the number of immigrants for each year in the same position as the population for that year. To calculate the population for next year, take the current years population, add the number of births, subtract the number of deaths, and add the number of immigrants. Using the matrices to do this for all six years, the terms would be P , P B , P D, and M , respectively. So the expression is P + PB PD + M. See answers. The expression in problem 4 calculates the populations for the subsequent years (1994 to 1999).

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Problems with a Point: January 16, 2001

c EDC 2001

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