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A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD

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Table of Contents

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E"e#$t%&e S$''a() Co'-an) P(of%le H%sto() O&e(&%e. Abo$t Ka(&) G(o$Sto#/ 0(o/%n Se(&%#es Abo$t Ka(&) Co''o1%t%es 0(o/%n L%'%te1 KAR2Y A1&anta e

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O( an%3at%on C4a(t Int(o1$#t%on to #o''o1%t) 'a(/et 6 Resea(#4 Met4o1olo ) + 5 In1%an Co''o1%t) F$t$(es Ma(/et Int(o1$#t%on Co''o1%t) t(a1%n #ont(a#ts F$t$(e 'a(/et 'e#4an%s's Pa(t%#%-ants %n f$t$(es 'a(/et 9 t(a1%n -(o#e1$(e L%'%tat%ons of #o''o1%t) f$t$(e 'a(/et Gol1 Co''o1%t) F$t$(e Ma(/et Int(o1$#t%on 7 Gol1 %n In1%an S#ena(%o Wo(l1 Ma(/ets Gol1 an In1e-en1ent Asset +;*7: ,7*,8 6:*+7 !5*,5

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD

; = 8 !: !! !, !6

T$(n%n to 1e'an1
W4at 'a/es Gol1 S-e#%al< F%"%n of s-ot ol1 -(%#es So$(#es Of Gol1 Fo( T4e Gol1s'%t4s 7!*75 In&est'ent A.a(e In&est'ent %n #o''o1%t) f$t$(e F$t$(e %n&est'ent an1 se(&%#es e"-e#tat%on 77*78 ;:*;= ;8*=: =! =, =6

In&esto( A.a(eness An1 T4e%( Pe(#e-t%on

I'-a#t of S-ot Gol1 Ma(/et on F$t$(e Gol1 Ma(/et


Fa#to(s Affe#t%n F$t$(e Gol1 Ma(/et FINDINGS SUGGESTIONS CONCLUSION 0I0LIOGRAPHY

E"e#$t%&e S$''a()

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD Investing in various types of assets is an interesting activity that attracts people from all walks of life. Investors who are having extra cash could invest it in securities like shares or any other assets like gold, which comes under commodity futures market. Commodity Futures are contracts to buy specific quantity of a particular commodity at a future date. It is similar to the index futures and stock futures but the underlying happens to be commodities instead of stocks. Now days, the commodity market is in growth stage and the Ka(&) F%na-ol%s 0el a$' working as a broking firm wants to expand and for extensive reach thinking of establishing branches in various cities of !arnataka. I have taken the commodity futures, to study and analy"e, as it is the emerging trend in the market, at Ka(&) F%na-ol%s 0el a$'> I have taken #old as the commodity to study the Impact of present gold price on future gold market and its trading mechanism.

T%tle? @St$1) of Co''o1%t) Ma(/et .%t4 S-e#%al Refe(en#e to Gol1.A at !$%&'


Finapolis (elgaum

ObBe#t%&es?
)o study the mechanism of commodity market.

)o study the spot gold market.

)o study whether the goldsmiths of (elgaum city aware of commodity market and their perception.

)o analyses the impact of spot gold market on future gold market.

)o study the factors such as economic factors of *+, world political and other factors affect on future market.

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD

Resea(#4 'et4o1olo )?
SAMPLE SICE? ,-- random sample si"e SAMPLE TYPE? +imple random sampling SAMPLE AREA? (elgaum city TOOL USED FOR ANALYSES? ,. #raphical %epresentation of $nalysis. /ie charts 0ine Chart 1. +/++ 2. Correlation

SOURCES OF DATA COLLECTION? 5uestionnaire 6bservation and personal discussion with gold traders.

/rimary 3ata4

+econdary data4 Information collected from different websites likes #old 7orld, 8C9 etc. From various text books, :ournals, maga"ines, news papers and booklets from company.

LIMITATION OF THE STUDY? +pot prices are varying from shop to shop. Commission has not included spot prices of the commodity. +tudy of awareness and perception of the investor is only based on sample si"e. )he study of awareness is limited to (elgaum city.

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD

F%n1%n s?
)here is positive correlation between both market traders can easily predict the future prices of the commodities and hedge their positions. 8ost of the respondents are interested in investing in equity ;i.e. <=>? when compared to the other investment alternatives because they feel investing in equity will provide more returns to them. @1> of Investors are aware about commodity future market. AB> of Investors have not invested as they have a perception that it is risky and they even do not have much knowledge about trading mechanism. For gold price fluctuation main reasons are 3ollar depreciation C appreciation 7orld distress Increase in money supply Inflation

S$

est%ons?
(oth the markets are positively correlated the traders have knowledge about the commodity demand and supply and their price fluctuations. +o !arvy can approach these traders and they can easily convince them so these people are the targeted customers for !arvy. 8ore $wareness program has to be conducted by !arvy consultants so that already aware investor takes the challenge to invest in this commodity future market. (ecause since this was new to the market and also risky but gives good

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD return. so it can be done through by giving advertisements in local channels, News papers, by sending D4mail to present customers etc From survey it is found that most of the potential customers are concerned about the genuine information and moderate brokerage so !arvy can look upon this. If it can give good information and charge moderate brokerage it will help to attract more and more customers.

Con#l$s%on
Capital market is already matured and reached at high level, every investor interested to invest but not in commodity Future 8arket due to lack of awareness. $s per 3ata analysis most of the investors do not have much idea of commodity market in (elgaum they are required to be given awareness training and knowledge with the help of workshops and seminars, as investors are willing to know more about commodity market. )here exists a high degree of positive correlation between +pot Commodity 8arket and Commodity Future 8arket. If an amount of small change in the spot gold market prices has the direct impact on the future prices of gold in commodity market.

COMPAN PROFILE
)he birth of !arvy was on a modest scale in ,=@,. It began with the vision and enterprise of a small group of practicing Chartered $ccountants who founded the flagship company E!arvy Consultants 0imited. 7e started with consulting and financial accounting automation, and carved inroads into the field of registry and share accounting by ,=@F. +ince then, we have utili"ed our experience and superlative expertise to go from strength to strengthEto better our services, to provide new ones, to innovate, diversify and in the process, evolved !arvy as one of IndiaGs premier integrated financial service enterprise. )hus over the last 1- years !arvy has traveled the success route, towards building a reputation as an integrated financial services provider, offering a wide spectrum of services. $nd we have made this :ourney by taking the route of quality service, path breaking innovations in service, versatility in service and finallyEtotality in service.

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD 6ur highly qualified manpower, cutting4edge technology, comprehensive infrastructure and total customer4focus has secured for us the position of an emerging financial services giant en:oying the confidence and support of an enviable clientele across diverse fields in the financial world. 6ur values and vision of attaining total competence in our servicing has served as the building block for creating a great financial enterprise, which stands solid on our fortresses of financial strength 4 our various companies.

7ith the experience of years of holistic financial servicing behind us and years of complete expertise in the industry to look forward to, we have now emerged as a premier integrated financial services provider. $nd today, we can look with pride at the fruits of our mastery and experience H comprehensive financial services that are competently segregated to service and manage a diverse range of customer requirements. O&e(&%e.? !$%&', is a premier integrated financial services provider, and ranked among the top five in the country in all its business segments, services over ,A million individual investors in various capacities, and provides investor services to over 2-- corporate, comprising the who is who of Corporate India. !$%&' covers the entire spectrum of financial services such as +tock broking, 3epository /articipants, 3istribution of financial products 4 mutual funds, bonds, fixed deposit, equities, Insurance (roking, Commodities (roking, /ersonal Finance $dvisory +ervices, 8erchant (anking I Corporate Finance, placement of equity, I/6, among others. !arvy has a professional management team and ranks among the best in technology, operations and research of various industrial segments. 2al$e an1 2%s%on of Ka(&) Sto#/ 0(o/%n Lt1?

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD J6ur values and vision of attaining total competence in our servicing has served as the building block for creating a great financial enterprise, which stands solid on our fortress of financial strength H our various companiesK.

Abo$t KAR2Y G(o$-

!arvy has traveled the success route, towards building a reputation as an integrated financial services provider, offering a wide spectrum of services for over 1years. !arvy, a name long committed to service at its best. $ fame acquired through the range of corporate and retail services including mutual funds, fixed income, equity investments, insurance EEE to name a few. 6ur values and vision of attaining total competence in our servicing has served as a building block for creating a great financial enterprise. )he birth of !arvy was on a modest scale in the year ,=@1. It began with the vision and enterprise of a small group of practicing Chartered $ccountants based in Lyderabad, who founded !arvy. 7e started with consulting and financial accounting automation, and then carved inroads into the field of %egistry and +hare )ransfers. +ince then, we have utili"ed our quality experience and superlative expertise to go from strength to strength to provide better and new services to the investors. $nd today, we can look with pride at the fruits of our experience into comprehensive financial services provider in the Country.

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD

KAR2Y G(o$- #o'-an%es a(e?


!arvy Consultants 0imited !arvy +tock (roking 0imited !arvy Investor +ervices 0imited !arvy Computershare /rivate 0imited !arvy #lobal +ervices 0imited !arvy Comtrade 0imited !arvy Insurance (roking /rivate 0imited !arvy 8utual Fund +ervices !arvy +ecurities 0imited

Sto#/ 0(o/%n Se(&%#es?


It is an undisputed fact that the stock market is unpredictable and yet en:oys a high success rate as a wealth management and wealth accumulation option. )he difference between unpredictability and a safety anchor in the market is provided by in4 depth knowledge of market functioning and changing trends, planning with foresight and choosing one I rescueGs options with care. )his is what we provide in our +tock (roking services.

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD 7e offer services that are beyond :ust a medium for buying and selling stocks and shares. Instead we provide services, which are multi dimensional and multi4focused in their scope. )here are several advantages in utili"ing our +tock (roking services, which are the reasons why it is one of the best in the country. 7e offer trading on a vast platform National +tock Dxchange, (ombay +tock Dxchange and Lyderabad +tock Dxchange. 8ore importantly, we make trading safe to the maximum possible extent, by accounting for several risk factors and planning accordingly. 7e are assisted in this task by our in4depth research, constant feedback and sound advisory facilities. 6ur highly skilled research team, comprising of technical analysts as well as fundamental specialists, secure result4oriented information on market trends, market analysis and market predictions. )his crucial information is given as a constant feedback to our customers, through daily reports delivered thrice daily )he /re4 session %eport, where market scenario for the day is predicted, )he 8id4session %eport, timed to arrive during lunch break , where the market forecast for the rest of the day is given and )he /ost4session %eport, the final report for the day, where the market and the report itself is reviewed. )o add to this repository of information, we publish a monthly maga"ine. )he Finapolis, which analy"es the latest stock market trends and takes a close look at the various investment options, and products available in the market, while a weekly report, called !arvy (a"aar (aatein keeps you more informed on the immediate trends in the stock market. In addition, our specific industry reports give comprehensive information on various industries. (esides this, we also offer special portfolio analysis packages that provide daily technical advice on scripts for successful portfolio management and provide customi"ed advisory services to help you make the right financial moves that are specifically suited to your portfolio.

6ur +tock (roking services are widely networked across India, with the number of our trading terminals providing retail stock broking facilities. 6ur services have increasingly offered customer oriented convenience, which we provide to a spectrum of investors, high4net worth or otherwise, with equal dedication and competence.

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD Abo$t Ka(&) Co''o1%t%es 0(o/%n L%'%te1? Commodities market, contrary to the beliefs of many people, has been in existence in India through the ages. Lowever the recent attempt by the #overnment to permit 8ulti4commodity National levels exchanges has indeed given it, a shot in the arm. $s a result two exchanges 8ulti Commodity Dxchange ;8C9? and National Commodity and derivatives Dxchange ;NC3D9? have come into being. )hese exchanges, by virtue of their high profile promoters and stakeholders, bundle in themselves, online trading facilities, robust surveillance measures and a hassle4free settlement system. )he futures contracts available on a wide spectrum of commodities like #old, +ilver, Cotton, +teel, +oya oil, +oya beans, 7heat, +ugar, Channa etc., provide excellent opportunities for hedging the risks of the farmers, importers, exporters, traders and large scale consumers. )hey also make open an avenue for quality investments in precious metals. )he commodities market, as the movements of the stock market or debt market do not affect it provides tremendous opportunities for better diversification of risk. %eali"ing this fact, even mutual funds are contemplating of entering into this market.

!arvy Commodities (roking 0imited is another venture of the prestigious !arvy group. 7ith our well established presence in the multifarious facets of the modern Financial services industry from stock broking to registry services, it is indeed a pleasure for us to make foray into the commodities derivatives market which opens yet another door for us to deliver our service to our beloved customers and the investor public at large. 7ith the high quality infrastructure already in place and a committed #overnment providing continuous impetus, it is the responsibility of us, the intermediaries to deliver

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD these benefits at the doorsteps of our esteemed customers. 7ith our expertise in financial services, existence across the lengths and breadths of the country and an enviable technological edge, we are all set to bring to you, the pleasure of investing in this burgeoning market, which can touch upon the lives of a vast ma:ority of the population from the farmer to the corporate alike. 7e are confident that the commodity futures can be a good value addition to your portfolio. )he company provides investment, advisory and brokerage services in Indian Commodities 8arkets. $nd most importantly, we offer a wide reach through our branch network of over 11F branches located across ,@- cities.

KAR2Y A1&anta e?
)rade from anywhere in India !arvy, with its network of branches across the length and breadth of the country, is always within your reach, no matter where you are. )his gives you the facility to trade from anywhere in India. Rel%able (esea(#4 !arvy has a dedicated team of research analysts who work round the clock to provide the best research newsletters and advices. 7e reach your desk daily, weekly and monthly. Pe(sonal%3e1 Se(&%#es !arvy, with its wide array of personali"ed services from registry to stock broking takes the pleasure of adding one more service, commodities broking with the same personal touch

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD

State of Inf(ast($#t$(e )he strong I) backbone of !arvy helps us to provide customi"ed direct services through our back office system, nation4wide connectivity and website. Ro$n1 t4e #lo#/ o-e(at%ons %n #o''o1%t%es t(a1%n Indian commodities market, unlike stock market keeps awake till ,, in the night and !arvy is all professionals. )he account opening forms are available at our branch offices and with our business associates. 'ou are requested to kindly contact a branch nearby your area and complete the account opening formalities for commodities trading at the branches. $lso you can take a print out and fill out a simple account opening form from our website and complete the necessary documentation as per the checklist enclosed in the form. )he form after duly filled up may be deposited at the nearest !arvy (ranch or $ssociate along with a chequeC33 favoring J!arvy Commodities (roking /rivate 0imitedK payable at Lyderabad towards initial margin. /lease remember the 8ember4 Client agreement has to be executed on a non4:udicial stamp paper, as per the applicable by De-os%t the M+tamp 3uty $ctG In%t%al of the relevant state. Ma( %n? poised to offer round the clock services through its dedicated team of

'ou need to deposit an initial upfront margin as specified by the exchange ;usually between F4,-> of the contract value?.)he chequeC33 should be in favour of J!arvy Commodities (roking /rivate 0imitedK Ma(/ to Ma(/et Ma( %n? In addition to initial margin, you also need to keep a mark to market margin for taking care of the adverse price movements, if any.

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD

A#4%e&e'ents
$mong the top F stock brokers in India ;<> of N+D volumes? IndiaNs No. , %egistrar I +ecurities )ransfer $gents $mong the to top 2 3epository /articipants 0argest Network of (ranches I (usiness $ssociates I+6 =--1 certified operations by 3N& $mong top ,- Investment bankers 0argest 3istributor of Financial /roducts $d:udged as one of the top F- I) uses in India by 8I+ $sia Full Fledged I) driven operations

O( an%3at%on C4a(t
8anaging 3irector Chief 8anaging 3irector

&ice4/resident &ice4/resident

&ice4/resident

&ice4/resident

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD

!arvy

!arvy

!arvy
Investors +ervices 0td.

!arvy

+ecurities 0td.

+tock (roking 0td

Consultants 0td.

3eputy #eneral 8anager

3eputy #eneral 8anager

3eputy #eneral 8anager

3eputy #eneral 8anager

+enior 8anager +enior 8anager +enior 8anager

+enoir8anager

(ranch 8anager

Number of )eam 0eaders N number of Dxecutives

Int(o1$#t%on to #o''o1%t) 'a(/et


Dver since the drawn of civili"ation, commodity trading has become an integral part of mankind. )he first and foremost reason is that commodity represents the fundamental elements of lifestyle of human beings. In the early days, people used to exchange goods for goods, which was called as M(arter +ystemG. 7ith the advancement of civili"ation, trading system has gone through various changes and has now entered into an era of Future trading besides existence physical trading across the world. )he history of Commodity Future trading can be traced back to ,A@@ with the introduction of Future trading in rice in Oapan. )his was followed by an increased participation in commodity

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD derivatives, especially in Futures, in the industriali"ed countries like $merica and (ritain. $ll the countries opened the avenue for introduction of Future trading in commodities in ,=th century. 8a:or commodity Future trading platforms opened in the world are Chicago (oard of )rade ;N'(6)? and New 'ork 8ercantile Dxchange ;N'8D9?. $ Commodity derivative is a contract which derives its value from an underlying commodity. )he main purpose of Future market is to provide a mechanism for successfully managing the price risk associated with commodities. Future markets provide a platform for buyers and sellers to trade in a huge number of diverse commodities such as agricultural products, metals and energy. )hese markets are not only meant for hedgers, speculators and arbitrages, but also for retail investors who want to trade in booming commodity market.

In1%an s#ena(%o
)he commodity derivatives markets in India are as old as those of the *+. )he origin of commodity derivatives markets in India can be traced back to ,@BF, when (ombay Cotton )rade $ssociation 0td., was set up to start trading in cotton Futures. +ubsequent to this, many other associations have started Future trading in commodities at different places. For example, the Futures trading in oilseeds started in ,=-- at (ombay, raw :ute and :ute products in ,=,1 in Calcutta, wheat in Lapur in ,=,2, bullion in (ombay in ,=1-. Lowever, in ,=2=, the 6ption trading in cotton was banned by the government of (ombay to restrict the speculative activity in the cotton market. in subsequent years, forward trading in various commodities like oilseeds, food grains, vegetable oil, sugar cloth were also prohibited.

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD IndiaGs commodity exchanges have come a long way since their opening up in the early twenty first century. In India, three national level exchanges namely 8ulti Commodity Dxchange of India ;8CD9?, National Commodity and 3erivatives Dxchange ;NC3D9? and National 8ulti Commodity Dxchanges are operating to cater to the needs of Indian investors. $part from these national level exchanges, nearly 1- regional exchanges are in operation, to deal with specified commodities in that region.

P(esent S#ena(%o
6ver the last 1- years, the prices of commodities have generally been bearish. Dven as recently as 1--14-2, the outlook on the recovery in the global economy and world trade was generally subdued due to depressed equity markets, weakening *+ dollar and geopolitical concerns. Commodity market across the world was impacted by these developments. Lowever, of late, the scenario has completely changed as the global economy recovered from its slump aided by the boom in the *+ markets and increased demand from developing economies like India and China. In the global investment market, the newly hailed, attractive, asset class is commodities. +o, investors are being attracted to this new booming market for investment.

Mean%n of #o''o1%t) 1e(%&at%&e 'a(/et


FC%$ Forward Contracts ;%egulation? $ct, ,=F1 defines JgoodsK as Jevery kind of movable property other than actionable claims, money and securitiesK. FuturesG trading

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD is organi"ed in such goods or commodities as are permitted by the Central #overnment. $t present, all goods and products of agricultural ;including plantation?, mineral and fossil origin are allowed for futures trading under the auspices of the commodity exchanges recogni"ed under the FC%$.

$ commodity derivative is a contract which derives its value from an underlying commodity. )he main purpose of future market is to provide a mechanism for successfully managing the price risks associated with commodities. Future market provides a platform for buyer and seller to trade in a huge number of diverse commodities such as agriculture products, metals and energy. )hese markets are not only meant for hedgers, speculators and arbitrages, but also for retail investors who want to trade in booming commodity market. Commodity derivatives market trade contracts for which the underlying asset is commodity. It can be an agricultural commodity like wheat, soybeans, rapeseed, cotton, etc or precious metals like gold, silver, etc.

D%ffe(en#e bet.een Co''o1%t) an1 F%nan#%al 1e(%&at%&es


)he basic concept of a derivative contract remains the same whether the underlying happens to be a commodity or a financial asset. Lowever there are some features which are very peculiar to commodity derivative markets. In the case of financial derivatives, most of these contracts are cash settled. Dven in the case of physical settlement, financial assets are not bulky and do not need special facility for storage. 3ue to the bulky nature of the underlying assets, physical settlement in commodity derivatives

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD creates the need for warehousing. +imilarly, the concept of varying quality of asset does not really exist as far as financial underlingsG are concerned. Lowever in the case of commodities, the quality of the asset underlying a contract can vary at times.

W4) a(e Co''o1%t) De(%&at%&es ReD$%(e1 India is among the top4F producers of most of the commodities, in addition to being a ma:or consumer of bullion and energy products. $griculture contributes about 11> to the #3/ of the Indian economy. It employees around FB> of the labor force on a total of ,A2 million hectares of land. $griculture sector is an important factor in achieving a #3/ growth of @4,->. $ll this indicates that India can be promoted as a ma:or center for trading of commodity derivatives. It is unfortunate that the policies of F8C during the most of ,=F-s to ,=@-s suppressed the very markets it was supposed to encourage and nurture to grow with times. It was a mistake other emerging economies of the world would want to avoid. Lowever, it is not in India alone that derivatives were suspected of creating too much speculation that would be to the detriment of the healthy growth of the markets and the farmers. +uch suspicions might normally arise due to a misunderstanding of the characteristics and role of derivative product. It is important to understand why commodity derivatives are required and the role they can play in risk management. It is common knowledge that prices of commodities, metals, shares and currencies fluctuate over time. )he possibility of adverse price changes in future creates risk for businesses. 3erivatives are used to reduce or eliminate price risk arising from unforeseen price changes. $ derivative is a financial contract whose price depends on, or is derived from, the price of another asset.

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD

S-(ea1 t(a1e %n #o''o1%t%es


In Future trading, a spread trade refers to the act of buying one commodity or Futures contract and selling a related one, in an attempt to profit from the price difference between the two. (asically, it is an act of entering long ;buying? as well as short ;selling? position simultaneously in an attempt to make profit. )here can be three types of spread one can enter in Commodity 3erivative 8arket. ,. 1. 2. $ spread can be established between different months of the same commodity (etween the same related commodities, usually for the same month ;inter (etween the same or related commodities traded on two different exchanges ;called an inter delivery spread?. commodity spread?. ;inter market spread?. +pread trading can be done at the market price or at desired difference level between the commodities. For example, (uy one contract of February of 3ecember #old and at the same time sell one contract of February #old when the February #old contract is ,-points higher than the 3ecember contract. In this case first and foremost thing that need to be observed is the liquidity present in both the contracts. )he benefits that can be arrived from entering in spread trading is the lower margin requirement, because these strategies normally carry less risk. +preads are usually less volatile and prices move less quickly, which can be good for beginners who may be intimated by the speed and price fluctuations of a single outright trade in Future 8arket.

M)t4s on #o''o1%t%es t(a1%n


In recent past, we notice that the regulators banned trading in few commodities, thereby creating misconception in the minds of traders about the commodities market. Lence, the following is an attempt to demystify the common myths prevailing among the investors.

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD

!E

Co''o1%t) 'a(/et %s too #o'-le" to $n1e(stan1?

Commodities markets are not complex as the product dealt in are natural and therefore cannot be artificially manipulated. )he demand and supply also depends upon economic factors. It is easier to understand commodities as in our daily life we are familiar with commodities, we know the ruling prices of these commodities in the market, while in stocks, we are not fully aware about internal affairs of the company. ,E t(a1%n ? It is in correct to say that farmers would use this market. $ctually, the farmers only use the commodity future prices as a tool to decide which crop to grow and to what extent and some large formers would use this market to hedge their risk through an intermediary. )hese intermediaries would normally be the same commission agents who help formers to sell their crop in cash market. $part from farmer, others related to commodity trading either directly or indirectly can participate in trading to hedge their price risk. Onl) fa('e(s a(e %nte(este1 In t(a1%n an1 also onl) t4e) s4o$l1 be

6E

Co''o1%t) 'a(/ets a(e o-e(at%n to se(&e t4e nee1s of s-e#$lato(s an1 Commodities markets existence serves for price discovery and price risk

not of t4e (eal %n&esto(s? management. )hrough this platform everybody related to commodities can find better price discovery mechanism. /roducers and consumers of the commodity can minimi"e their price risk by way of hedging. Lowever, speculators constitute only one dimension the market. they can work only because someone is hedging their risk in the market. this market provides the price signals to producers as well as consumers to meet their long term requirement. )hese price signals are not available to users unless there is a commodity futures exchange and in its absence, the markets have price fluctuations. /rice

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD stabili"ation comes from the price discovery process when market participants react positively to the information available to decide a price. +E La( e 'e'be(s4%- %s (eD$%(e1 to ($n #o''o1%t) e"#4an es? It is a misconception that to be a successful commodity exchange it needs large number of members. +uccess of any commodity exchange depends upon good and well4 spread brokerage houses and there penetration levels. 6nce the commodity futures trading is well established, then the services will be broadened to many intermediaries with separate trading rights and have few members with separate trading rights and have few members with clearing rights like banks. 5E Co''o1%t%es a(e onl) #as4 settle1 #ont(a#ts? *nlike equity market, commodities traded through exchanges are deliverable on expiry. )o facilitate smooth delivery process, the Forward 8arkets Commission ;F8C? has categori"ed the delivery mechanism into three dimensions vi"., compulsory delivery contracts, sellersG option contracts. 6n expiry of the contracts, the open positions will be either settled by delivery or cash depending upon sellers and buyers. +ince the delivery process takes long time to materiali"e and one has to keep track of all the delivery process transactions, nobody wants to take burden of delivery handling process. Note? Compulsory delivery option4 it is an option where on the expiry of contract of a particular commodity, all the open outstanding positions are closed out by way of delivery. Leavy penalties are levied in case of default in delivery. +eller option H it is an option where the sellers has right to deliver the particular commodity on the expiry of the contract. In this option seller has to give his intention F working days prior to the expiry of the contract. )he client who has not delivery intention and having open position at the expiry of the contract has to bear a stipulated penalty. (oth 6ptionCIntention 8atching H in both the option contract the delivery happens only case of where the intention from buyer as well as seller received for a prescribed commodity to the extent of matched quantity. )hese contracts are generally cash selected and there is no penalty for open position.

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD

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1e-os%to()F.a(e4o$se? 5uality of produce is stored in exchange designated warehouse is not guaranteed by anyone until the standards in warehousing management improve to ensure preservation of the quality of goods stored. If the quality is not assured no benefit accrues to the user. )herefore, the exchange should provide a system, whereby the seller must ensure quality certification before tendering delivery and the buyer must have option to recheck the at the time of collecting delivery and in case of any discrepancies compare to the contract specifications, they should have an option to re:ect it. 7orldwide no demat delivery is operational in commodity. ;E Co''o1%t) f$t$(e 'a(/ets a(e 'o(e (%s/) an1 so %t %s not a1&%sable to

t(a1e %n #o''o1%t%es? 7hile scrip price can go down even by 2-4<- percent in a single trading session, it cannot happen in commodity futures price is based on the intrinsic value of the commodity. For instance, a scrip future can go down from %s.<--- to %s.1@-- in a trading session, but #old Feb 1--< contract would normally not come down from %s.,-2-- to %s.@<-- in a single trading session, because the inherent value of the gold would not fall so drastically. )herefore it would volatile than stocks.

W4at #an #o''o1%t) 'a(/et offe(<


If you are an investor, commodities futures represent a good form of investment because of the following reasons.. H% 4 Le&e(a e H )he margins in the commodity futures market are less than the Less Man%-$lat%ons 4 Commodities markets, as they are governed by international

FI6 section of the equity market. price movements are less prone to rigging or price manipulations.

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD D%&e(s%f%#at%on H )he returns from commodities market are free from the direct

influence of the equity and debt market, which means that they are capable of being used as effective hedging instruments providing better diversification. If you are an importer or an exporter, commodities futures can help you in the following waysE He1 e a a%nst -(%#e fl$#t$at%ons H 7ide fluctuations in the prices of import or

export products can directly affect your bottom4line as the price at which you importCexport is fixed before4hand. Commodity futures help you to procure or sell the commodities at a price decided months before the actual transaction, thereby ironing out any change in prices that happen subsequently. If you are a producer of a commodity, futures can help you as follows. Lo#/*%n t4e -(%#e fo( )o$( -(o1$#e H If you are a farmer, there is every chance that

the price of your produce may come down drastically at the time of harvest. (y taking positions in commodity futures you can effectively lock4in the price at which you wish to sell your produce Ass$(e1 1e'an1 H $ny glut in the market can make you wait unendingly for a

buyer. +elling commodity futures contract can give you assured demand at the time of harvest. If you are a large scale consumer of a product, here is how this market can help you. Cont(ol )o$( #ost H If you are an industrialist, the raw material cost dictates the final price of your output. $ny sudden rise in the price of raw materials can compel you to pass on the hike to your customers and make your products unattractive in the market. (y buying commodity futures, you can fix the price of your raw material. Ens$(e #ont%n$o$s s$--l) H $ny shortfall in the supply of raw materials can stall

your production and make you default on your sale obligations. 'ou can avoid this risk by buying a commodity futures contract by which you are assured of supply of a fixed quantity of materials at a pre4decided price at the appointed time.

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD

Resea(#4 Met4o1olo )
TOPIC? Study of Commodity Market with Special Reference to Gold. at !$%&' Finapolis (elgaum for fulfillment of requirement of 8($ I&th semester in Institute of 8anagement Dducation and research. It was an opportunity to learn the practical aspects of the firm. O0GECTI2ES? )o study the mechanism of commodity market.

)o study the spot gold market.

)o study whether the goldsmiths of (elgaum city aware of commodity market and their perception.

)o analyses the impact of spot gold market on future gold market.

)o study the factors such as economic factors of *+, world political and other factors affect on future market.

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD

SAMPLE SICE? )he sample si"e is consisting of goldsmiths and gold traders of (elgaum city. ,-- random sample si"es have taken to identify the awareness level of gold commodity market in (elgaum city and to know the spot gold market. SAMPLE TYPE? +imple random sampling is adopted to select respondent. SAMPLE AREA? (elgaum City DURATION OF PROGECT? ,st /hase 4 3ecember to Oanuary

1nd /hase 4 Oanuary to $pril ;weekly two days? TOOL USED FOR ANALYSES? ,. #raphical %epresentation of $nalysis. a. /ie charts b. 0ine Chart 1. 2. +/++ Correlation coefficient. It measures the intensity or the magnitude of linear relationship between two variables.

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD

NP9'4;P9? ;P'? Correlation;r? Q RNP91 H;P9?1S,C1RNP'1 H;P'?1S,C1

/robability Drror. It is an old measure of testing the reliability of an observed value of correlation coefficient in so far as it depends upon the condition of the random sampling. /robable Drror Q -.AB<FT ;,4r1? Un R$les? If, /D TA V r then correlation is not significant. If, /D W r then correlation is significant. In other situation, nothing can be concluding with certainty.

DATA COLLECTION APPROACH? /rimary data is important data for successful research. It has collected through questionnaire and personal discussion with brokers and gold traders. $nd also secondary data which act like key for successful research is collected from 8C9, #old 7orld website and articles in newspapers such as (usiness 0ine, Dconomic +tandards. +pot prices were collected from business line news paper and confirm it from gold smith and future prices were collected from 8C9.

SOURCES OF DATA COLLECTION?

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD /rimary and secondary data are collected from following sourcesE /rimary 3ata4 5uestionnaire 6bservation and personal discussion with gold traders. +econdary data4 Information collected from different websites likes #old 7orld, 8C9 etc. From various text books, :ournals, maga"ines, news papers and booklets from company. LIMITATION OF THE STUDY? +pot prices are varying from shop to shop. Commission has not included spot prices of the commodity. +tudy of awareness and perception of the investor is only based on sample si"e. )he study of awareness is limited to (elgaum city.

INDIAN COMMODITY FUTURES MARKET

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD India has a long history of commodity futures market, extending over ,1F years. +till, such trading was interrupted suddenly since the mid seventies in the fond hope of ushering in an elusive socialistic pattern of society. $s the country embarked on economic liberali"ation policies and signed the #$)) agreement in the early nineties, the government reali"ed the need for futures trading to strengthen the competitiveness of Indian agriculture and the commodity trade and industry. Futures trading began to be permitted in several commodities, and the ushering in of the 1,st century saw the emergence of new MNational Commodity DxchangesG with countrywide reach for trading in almost all primary commodities and their products. )here have been over 1- exchanges existing for commodities all over the country. Lowever these exchanges are commodity specific and have a strong regional focus. )he #overnment, in order to make the commodities market more transparent and efficient, accorded approval for setting up of national level multi commodity exchanges. $ccordingly two widest exchanges are there which deal in a wide variety of commodities and which allow nation4wide trading. )hey are. ,? National Commodity I 3erivatives Dxchange ;NC3D9? 1? 8ulti Commodity Dxchange of India ;8C9? 2? National 8ulti Commodity Dxchange ;N8C9?

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD

!E Nat%onal Co''o1%t) 9 De(%&at%&es E"#4an e HNCDEIE? NC3D9 is a public limited company incorporated on $pril 12, 1--2 under the Companies $ct, ,=FA. NC3D9 is a technology driven commodity exchange with an independent (oard of 3irectors and professionals not having any vested interest in commodity markets. It is committed to provide a world4class commodity exchange platform for market participants to trade in a wide spectrum of commodity derivatives driven by best global practices, professionalism and transparency. Forward 8arket Commission regulates NC3D9 in respect of futures trading in commodities. (esides, NC3D9 is sub:ected to various laws of the land like the Companies $ct, +tamp $ct, Contracts $ct, Forward Commission ;%egulation? $ct and various other legislations, which impinge on its working. NC3D9 is located in 8umbai and to start with would offer facilities in about <- cities throughout India. )he reach will gradually be expanded to other cities. ,E M$lt% Co''o1%t) E"#4an e of In1%a HMCIE?

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD 8ulti Commodity Dxchange of India 0imited ;8C9?, is an Dxchange with a mandate for setting up a nationwide, online multi4commodity marketplace, offering unlimited growth opportunities to commodities market participants. $s a true neutral market, 8C9 has taken several initiatives to usher in a new4generation commodities futures market in the process, become the countryNs premier Dxchange. 8C9 has started operations from November ,-, 1--2.

Stat$to() f(a'e.o(/ fo( (e $lat%n #o''o1%t) f$t$(es Commodity futures contracts and the commodity exchanges organi"ing trading in such contracts are regulated by the #overnment of India under the Forward Contracts ;%egulation? $ct, ,=F1 ;FC%$?, and the %ules framed there under. )he nodal agency for such regulation is the Forward 8arkets Commission ;F8C?, situated at 8umbai, which functions under the aegis of the 8inistry of Consumer $ffairs, Food I /ublic 3istribution of the Central #overnment. Fo(.a(1 Ma(/ets Co''%ss%on HFMCE Forward 8arkets Commission ;F8C? headquartered at 8umbai is a regulatory authority, which is overseen by the 8inistry of Consumer $ffairs and /ublic 3istribution, #ovt. of India. It is a statutory body set up in ,=F2 under the Forward Contracts ;%egulation? $ct, ,=F1.

X)he $ct /rovides that the Commission shall consist of not less then two but not exceeding four members appointed by the Central #overnment out of them being nominated by the Central #overnment to be the Chairman thereof. Currently Commission comprises three members among whom 3r. !ewal %am, ID+, is acting as Chairman and +mt. /adma +waminathan, C++ and 3r. ;+mt.? Oayashree #upta, C++, are the 8embers of the Commission.X

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD

)he functions of the Forward 8arkets Commission are as follows. )o advise the Central #overnment in respect of the recognition or the withdrawal of recognition from any association or in respect of any other matter arising out of the administration of the Forward Contracts ;%egulation? $ct ,=F1. )o keep forward markets under observation and to take such action in relation to them, as it may consider necessary, in exercise of the powers assigned to it by or under the $ct. )o collect and whenever the Commission thinks it necessary, to publish information regarding the trading conditions in respect of goods to which any of the provisions of the act is made applicable, including information regarding supply, demand and prices, and to submit to the Central #overnment, periodical reports on the working of forward markets relating to such goods )o make recommendations generally with a view to improving the organi"ation and working of forward markets

)o undertake the inspection of the accounts and other documents of any recogni"ed association or registered association or any member of such association whenever it considerers it necessary.

Co''o1%t%es sele#te1 %n P4ase I


0$ll%on #old +ilver

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD AFGRI #o''o1%t%es %ubber Oute /epper Chana ;#ram? #uar 7heat +oya bean +oya oil %apeseedC8ustard +eed %apeseedC 8ustard +eed 6il Crude /alm oil %(3 /almolein

- Co''o1%t%es %nt(o1$#e1 %n P4ase II

COMMODITY TRADING CONTRACTS


$ll the commodities are not suitable for futures trading I for being suitable for futures trading the market for commodity should be competitive, i.e., there should be large demand for and supply of the commodity no individual or group of persons acting in concert should be in a position to influence the demand or supply, and consequently the price substantially. )here should be fluctuations in price. )he commodity should have long shelf life and be capable of standardi"ation and gradation.

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD

$ commodity futures contract is essentially a financial instrument. Following the absence of futures trading in commodities for nearly four decades, the new generation of commodity producers, processors, market functionaries, financial organi"ations, broking agencies and investors at large are, unfortunately, unaware at present of the economic utility, the operational techniques and the financial advantages of such trading. Commodity future market involves particularly different types of forward contracts. Fo(.a(1 #ont(a#ts FC%$ defines forward contract as Xa contract for the delivery of goods and which not a ready delivery contract isX. $ll contracts in commodities providing for delivery of goods andCor payment of price after ,, days from the date of the contract are XforwardX contracts. Forward contracts are of three types H ,? +pecific 3elivery I %eady 3elivery Contracts 1? Futures Contracts 2? 6ption Contracts S-e#%f%# Del%&e()FRea1) Del%&e() #ont(a#ts? +pecific delivery contracts provide for the actual delivery of specific quantities and types of goods during a specified future period, and in which the names of both the buyer and the seller are mentioned. *nder the $ct, a ready delivery contract is one, which provides for the delivery of goods and the payment of price therefore, either immediately or within such period not exceeding ,, days after the date of the contract, sub:ect to such conditions as may be prescribed by the Central #overnment. $lready delivery contract is required by law to be fulfilled by giving and taking the physical delivery of goods. In market parlance, the ready delivery contracts are commonly known as XspotX or XcashX contracts.

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD F$t$(es Cont(a#t? $ commodity futures contract is essentially a financial instrument. Following the absence of futures trading in commodities for nearly four decades, the new generation of commodity producers, processors, market functionaries, financial organi"ations, broking agencies and investors at large are, unfortunately, unaware at present of the economic utility, the operational techniques and the financial advantages of such trading. $ futures contract is a legally binding agreement between two parties to buy or sell in the future, on a designated exchange, a specific quantity of a commodity at a specific price. )he buyer and seller of a futures contract agree now on a price for a product to be delivered, or paid, for at a set time in the future, known as the Xsettlement date.X $lthough actual delivery of the commodity can take place in fulfillment of the contract, most futures contracts are actually closed out or XoffsetX prior to delivery. $ commodity futures contract is a tradable standardi"ed contract, the terms of which are set in advance by the commodity exchange organi"ing trading in it. )he futures contract is for a specified variety of a commodity, known as the XbasisK, though quite a few other similar varieties, both inferior and superior, are allowed to be deliverable or tender4able for delivery against the specified futures contract. )he parties to the contract are required to negotiate only the quantity to be bought and sold, and the price. )he Dxchange prescribes everything else. (ecause of the standardi"ed nature of the futures contract, it can be traded with ease at a momentGs notice. O-t%on Cont(a#t? $n option on a commodity futures contract is a legally binding agreement between two parties that gives the buyer, who pays a market determined price known as a Xpremium,X the right ;but not the obligation?, within a specific time period, to exercise his option. Dxercise of the option will result in the person being deemed to have entered into a futures contract at a specified price known as the Xstrike price.X In some cases, an option may confer the right to buy or sell the underlying asset directly, and these options are known as options on the physical asset.

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD Commodity future trading contracts rarely are for the actual or physical delivery allowed to be settled otherwise than by issuing or giving deliveries. )herefore, speculators use these futures contracts to benefit from changes in prices and are hardly interested in either taking or receiving deliveries of goods.

FUTURE MARKET MECHANISMS


!E P(%#e D%s#o&e() t4(o$ 4 F$t$(e Ma(/et? In an active futures market, the demand for information by traders is enormous. Futures exchanges tend to become collection centers for statistics on supplies, transportation, storage, purchases, exports, imports, currency values, interest rates, and other pertinent information. )hese data, which are compiled and distributed throughout the exchange community on a continuous basis, are immediately reflected in the trading pits as traders digest the new information and ad:ust their bids and offers accordingly. $s a result of active buying and selling of futures contracts, the market determines the best estimate of today and tomorrowNs prices for the underlying commodity. In effect, prices are discovered at futures exchanges. /rices determined via this open and competitive process are considered to be accurate reflections of the supply and demand for a commodity, and for this reason they are widely used as todayNs best estimate of tomorrowNs cash market prices for a standardi"ed quantity of a commodity. /rice discovery is the process of arriving at a figure at which one person will buy and another will sell a futures contract for a specific expiration date. In an active futures market, the process of price discovery continues from the marketNs opening until its close. Futures contracts are standardi"ed as to quantity, quality, and location so buyers and sellers only bargain over price. (ecause of this standardi"ation, commercial interests are better able to compute local cash prices. In many commodities, futures prices have earned

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD a role as key reference prices for those who produce, process, and merchandise the commodity.

1? T(ansfe((%n R%s/? He1 %n t4(o$ 4 f$t$(e 'a(/et

Commodity production and marketing involve si"able price risks, and risk represents a cost that affects the value of a commodity. 7hile there is no way to eliminate uncertainty, futures markets provide a competitive way for commodity producers, merchandisers, processors, and others who may own the actual commodity to transfer some price risk to speculators who will willingly assume such risk in hopes of making a profit. )he process of hedging involves the concurrent use of both cash and futures markets. +ince futures and cash prices tend to move together ;that is, parallel to each other?, and at contract expiration converge to one price, it is possible for a cotton merchant, for example, to hedge an unsold inventory of cotton with a sale of an equivalent amount of futures contracts. +ince the merchant owns the commodity, he would have a loss if prices fell. )o hedge, the merchant would sell futures contracts. Now if prices drop, the cash market loss will be at least partially offset by a gain on the futures contract. 7hen the merchant sells his inventory at the lower cash market price, he will simultaneously lift his hedge by buying back his futures contracts at the lower price. )he gain on his futures contracts should roughly equal the merchantNs loss in the cash market.

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD

Lere are three examples of how hedging helps the cash market work better. ,? Ledging stretches the marketing period. For instance, a livestock feeder does not have to wait until his cattle are ready to market before he can sell them. )he futures market permits him to sell futures contracts to establish the approximate sale price at any time between the time he buys his calves for feeding and the time the fed cattle are ready to market, some four to six months later. Le can take advantage of good prices even though the cattle are not ready for market. 1? Ledging protects inventory values. $ merchandiser with a large, unsold inventory can sell futures contracts that will protect the value of the inventory, even if the price of the commodity drops. 2? Ledging permits forward pricing of products. $ :ewelry manufacturer can determine the cost for gold, silver or platinum by buying a futures contract, translate that to a price for the finished products, and make forward sales to stores at firm prices. Laving made the forward sales, the manufacturer can use its capital to acquire only as much gold, silver, or platinum as may be needed to make the products that will fill its orders. )hese are :ust a few ways that commodity owners use futures markets. It requires skill and knowledge acquired that comes only by study and experience.

PARTICIPANTS

IN

FUTURES

MARKET

TRADING

PROCEDURE
)he Futures market participants comprise of. Farmers

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD )raders /roducers /rocessors Dxporters Importers Industries associated with commodities. )he futures market is used for hedging the price risk and for trading or arbitrage. (rokers of all commodity exchanges, who are located all across the country, serve the futures market users directly through their own branch officesN network or through the network of their franchisees or sub4brokers. P(o#e1$(e fo( In1%&%1$al %n&esto( to sta(t t(a1%n %n Co''o1%t) F$t$(es Ma(/et #an be as follo.s? Sele#t%on of 0(o/e(? $ trustworthy, reliable, efficient, effective I innovative broker, having membership to any of the Dxchange like 8C9 C NC3D9 etc. would be in InvestorGs interest. (roker should be such that recogni"es investorsG needs I aspirations I work as a dedicated team to deliver highly effective I customi"ed solutions to investors risk management needs.

Info('at%on abo$t Self? $fter selecting a broker, investor will be asked to provide information that is personal I financial. $ member client agreement should be signed between the broker I investor. Investor should give photographs, bank details I should possess normal 38$) $ccount or broker opens that account for himCher. If trading is intended with delivery of commodities then Commodity 38$) $ccount is been opened.

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD De-os%t%n t4e Ma( %n? In order to trade futures contracts, investor has to deposit margins in cash with broker. )here are two types of margins, namely initial margin I mark to market margin. %E In%t%al Ma( %n* Initial 8argin is set by the exchanges on basis of volatility in the particular commodity I is a percentage of the contract. %%E Ma(/ to 'a(/et Ma( %n* $t the end of the day, the contract is marked to market meaning traderGs account is credited or debited based on the profitC loss made during the session. 6n this profit or loss there broker can charge margin that is nothing but mark to market margin.

Int(a1a) T(a1%n ?
)hen as per individual investors wish he can buy or sell commodities online. Oust he has to specify which commodity I what price is he going to buy or sell. Dlectronic terminals are used for this trading at various broking offices that provides the same information countrywide. )his trading process is called as, JIntraday )radingK.

(enefit of this online trading is that it provides a secure, transparent, fast and user4friendly system. It leads to better price discovery of commodities like (ullion, 8etals and $gro products by bringing large number of (uyers and +ellers on a common National and International platform. Clea(%n T(a1es on Co''o1%t) E"#4an e $ll trades on Commodity Dxchange are supported by an initial margin. $t the Dnd4of day Commodity Dxchange does mark4to4market of all the open positions. )his activity results into final position of all members in respect to booked losses or losses on open positions. 8embers make the shortfalls good by way of pay4ins to Commodity Dxchange by next day and the members in profit on such positions are given the

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD necessary credits. )hese payments are processed electronically through a countrywide network of clearing banks. Settle'ent of t4e Cont(a#t an1 Del%&e() $ contract has a life cycle of two months. $t Commodity Dxchange, F days before the expiry of a contract, the contract enters into a tender period. $t the start of the tender period, both the parties must state their intentions to give or receive delivery, based on which the parties are supposed to act or bear the penal charges for any failure in doing so. )hose who do not express their intention to give or receive delivery at the beginning of tender period are required to square4up their open positions before the expiry of the contract. In case they do not their positions are closed out at Ndue date rateN. )he links to the physical market through the delivery process ensures maintenance of uniformity between spot and futures prices.

Ten1e(%n Del%&e() to a 0$)e( b) E"#4an e Selle( +ellers intimate the exchange at the beginning of the tender period and get the delivery quality certified from empanelled quality certification agencies. )hey also submit the documents to the Dxchange with the details of the warehouse within the city, chosen as a delivery center. +ellers are free to use any warehouse, as they are responsible for the goods until the buyer picks up the delivery, which is a practice followed in the commodities market globally. +eller would receive the money from the exchange against the goods delivered, which happens when the buyer has confirmed its satisfaction over quality and picked up the deliveries within stipulated time. Re#e%&%n Del%&e() of Co''o1%t%es b) 0$)e(

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD (uyers intending to take delivery will receive it, if there are sellers willing warehouse at the designated delivery centers on the designated delivery days. )here are commission agents who help the brokers with handling of the delivery, logistic support, and associated quality certification through to give delivery. )he (uyer will have to make the payment within three days after the delivery is allotted. )he buyer will take actual delivery from the empanelled agencies and associated billings due to tax implications. )his support is required as the buyer may be in a different city than the place where the delivery is being received.

Ut%l%t) of P4)s%#al Del%&e() of Co''o1%t) to Cl%ent of 0$)e( )he client of a buyer may use this delivery for his consumption in the industry, or for exports, or he may sell in the spot market or may sell in futures market in the subsequent contract, if he is a regular trader. #enerally, the commodities available in the physical form are consumed by the industry and, rarely, commodities, are stored in the warehouse for a longer period. Pe(#enta e of Del%&e() %n t4e F$t$(es Ma(/et )hough, Dxchanges have specified the deliverable grades in the contract specifications, which are notified before commencement of trading in a contract. )he seller is required to submit the quality certification issued by empanelled quality certification agencies, like, +#+, #eo Chem. etc. )hus, quality of a commodity is ensured, the percentage is delivery in such market is fairly low. #enerally, the futures markets all over the world are used for hedging where actual delivery percentage is about ,> any user in the commodities ecosystem unlike the physical spot or forward market does not use these markets for regular consumption.

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD

LIMITATIONS OF COMMODITY FUTURE MARKET


Commodity market is very difficult to predict. Commodity prices depend upon region, monsoon, transportation cost, demand4supply theory, importC export policies I #lobal market trends. +o commodity market experience volatility that cannot be predicted easily. 7ithout knowing the spot market for commodities it is very difficult to play with Future market. In capital market it depends upon Companies performance, decisions, long run plans, mergers, etc. there are definite regions to move up I down in the market, but in the case of Commodity market there are so many regions for the market movement, it is like a game of luck to the investor. Customer has to deposit the margin amount that is based on volatility of commodity plus brokerage that is deducted from total losses made. +o if at all there is a loss, the total loss amount will be very huge. In this aspect it is very risky market. Commodity market not yet developed in India so it is less reliable.

Commodity market gives high return but with multiplier of high risk.

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD

Gol1 #o''o1%t) F$t$(e Ma(/et Int(o1$#t%on


#old is a unique asset based on few basic characteristics. First, it is primarily a monetary asset, and partly a commodity. $s much as two thirds of goldGs total accumulated holdings relate to Jstore of valueK considerations. Loldings in this category include the central bank reserves, private investments, and high4cartage :ewelry bought primarily in developing countries as a vehicle for savings. )hus, gold is primarily a monetary asset. 0ess than one third of goldGs total accumulated holdings can be considered a commodity, the :ewelry bought in 7estern markets for adornment, and gold used in industry. )he distinction between gold and commodities is important. #old has maintained its value in after4inflation terms over the long run, while commodities have declined. +ome analysts like to think of gold as a Jcurrency without a countryG. It is an internationally recogni"ed asset that is not dependent upon any governmentGs promise to pay. )his is an important feature when comparing gold to conventional diversifiers like )4bills or bonds, which unlike gold, do have counter4party risk.

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD

Gol1 %n In1%an S#ena(%o.


#old is valued in India as a savings and investment vehicle and is the second preferred investment behind bank deposits. India is the worldGs largest consumer of gold in :ewelry ;much of which is purchased as investment?. )he hoarding tendency is well ingrained in Indian society, not least because inheritance laws in the middle of the twentieth century lent a great desirability to anonymity. Indian people are renowned for saving for the future and the financial savings ratio is strong, with a ratio of financial assets4to4#3/ of =2>. #oldGs circulates within the system and roughly 2-> of gold :ewelry fabrication is from recycled pieces. India is typically also the largest purchaser of coins and bars for investment ;V@-tpa?, although last year it had to concede first place to Oapan in the wake of the heavy buying in the first quarter due to fears for the stability of the Oapanese banking system. In ,==@41--, inclusive, annual Indian demand for gold in :ewelry exceeded A-- tons in 1--1, however, due to rising and volatile prices and a poor monsoon season, this dropped back to <=- tons, and coin and bar demand dropped to AB tons. Indian :ewelry off take is sensitive to price increases and even more so to volatility, although this decline in tonnage since ,==@ is also due in part to increasing competition from white and brown goods and alternative investment vehicles, but is also a reflection of the increase in price. )he Indian brideGs J+treedhanK, the wealth she takes with her when she marries and which remains hers, is still gold, however ;thus giving gold an important role in the JempowermentK of women in India?.

)he distinction between gold and commodities is important. #old has maintained its value in after4inflation terms over the long run, while commodities have declined.

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD +ome analysts like to think of gold as a Jcurrency without a countryG. It is an internationally recogni"ed asset that is not dependent upon any governmentGs promise to pay. )his is an important feature when comparing gold to conventional diversifiers like )4bills or bonds, which unlike gold, do have counter4party risk.

Wo(l1 Ma(/ets )odayNs gold market is a round4the4world, round4the4clock business, played out largely on dealersN trading screens. )he core of the business, however, remains in the key

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD markets of 0ondon, as the great clearing house, New 'ork as the home of futures trading, Yurich as physical turntable, Istanbul, 3ubai, +ingapore and Long !ong as doorways to important consuming regions and )okyo where the Commodity Dxchange ;)6C68? sets the mood of Oapan. Dven /aris still has a small market, a reminder of the days when the French were great hoarders, while 8umbai has increasing importance under IndiaNs liberali"ed gold regime that permits official imports through local markets.

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD

Gol1 an In1e-en1ent Asset


ItGs not difficult to understand why the gold price moves independently from the economic cycle when one considers the diversity of its demand and supply base, the ultimate determinants of price movements. )here are three sources of gold supply. mine production, official sector sales and scrap or recycled gold. 8ine production is by far the largest element, accounting for B-> of total supply last year. Changes in annual mine supply bear no relation to changes in *+ or even global #3/ growth. )he upward trend in mine production that was underway in the late ,=@-s was not arrested by ,==- recession ;the *+ economy suffered an outright contraction, while world #3/ growth slowed to ,.A> from 1.=> the previous year?. Nor was the downtrend in mining output that began in 1--, reversed by the sharp acceleration in world growth. 8ine production is influenced by very specific factors, such as the level of exploration spending, the success or otherwise in discovering new gold deposits and the

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD cost of extraction ;some new discoveries may not be economically viable?. 0ead times in gold mining are often very long. It can take years to re4open a closed mine, let alone find and mine new reserves. )he decision to build a mine shaft ;and often an entire infrastructure? is a long term one that will often see business cycles comes and goes. Central bank decisions to buy or sell gold ;they remain net sellers? are also usually strategic in nature, rather than reactive to the economic cycle. )he decision to buy or sell gold is often made years in advance and then carried out over a period of years. In +wit"erland, for example, the proposition to sell gold ;the first gold sales programmed? was first recommended by a group of experts in ,==B. Lowever, the actual sales programmed did not commence until 8ay 1---, with the sales then taking place over a period of five years. +crap supply is influenced by many factors, perhaps the most important being price and price volatility, but recessions and periods of economic distress have also had an impact. )he most dramatic example is when !orea was pushed into recession during the ,==@ $sian currency crisis its scrap supply increased by almost 1-- tonnes as the government bought gold from the local populace in exchange for won4denominated bonds. It then sold the gold on the international market in order to raise the dollars necessary to avoid defaulting on its external debt.

+imilarly, in Indonesia the ,==@ recession saw scrap supply increase by B1 tonnes in the first quarter of the year, in this instance purely for independent reasons rather than at the behest of the government.

T$(n%n to 1e'an1
Conventional wisdom argues that recessions are bad for commodity prices. )he reasoning goes that as consumer and business confidence falls, demand for goods and services is cut back and hence the materials used in the production of those goods or in the provision of services ;many of which are commodities? declines, thereby depressing their price.

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD )he argument is logical. Lowever, a few points are worth bearing in mind with respect to gold. 3emand for gold as an intermediate good is relatively small in comparison to many other commodities. 0ast year, :ust ,<> of gold demand came from the industrial sector ;mainly electronics?. )his is in stark contrast to base metals and even other precious metals, where the vast ma:ority of demand comes from industry. $s a result, gold is much less vulnerable to the vagaries of the economic cycle. )hat said, demand for gold in electronics is likely to fall if the economy falls into recession as consumer spending on non4essential electronics goods declines. $ *+ recession would undoubtedly have negative implications for gold :ewelry demand in $merica, as consumer spending slows. Lowever, this negative implication could be at least partially offset by the higher share of gold :ewelry in the retail market that gold :ewelry has en:oyed in recent years. 8oreover, gold is much less vulnerable than other :ewelry materials, such as diamonds or platinum, to a *+ recession as far more demand for gold comes from outside of the *+ H B-> of diamond :ewelry demand comes from the *+ market, compared with :ust ,-> for gold. India is in fact the single largest consumer of gold :ewellery in the world in tonnage terms. 0ast year, Indian households bought FF@ tonnes of gold :ewelry, more than double their *+ counterparts ;Chart B?. Chinese consumers rank second, having bought 22, tonnes. *+ consumers are third in tonnage terms, although *+ demand remains highest in retail value terms due to its higher trade margins. )he extent to which worldwide gold :ewelry demand suffers from a *+ recession will depend partly on the spill4over effects to other countries. If proponents of JdecouplingK prove to be correct ;they argue that emerging market economies are now strong enough domestically to withstand a *+ slowdown? then worldwide :ewelry demand need not fare badly. )he final source of demand comes from investors. Investors buy gold for many reasons. Chief among these are goldGs inflation and dollar4hedging properties, both of which have been proven over long periods of time. Low a recession affects investment demand would depend, in part, on how inflation and the dollar react. )he brewing recession has so far been positive for gold on both fronts. )he dollar has continued its downward tra:ectory, while inflation has ;unusually? headed higher. *+

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD consumer prices increased at an annual rate of <.-> in February this year, up from 1.<> :ust a year earlier. If these trends continue, investment demand for gold as an inflation and dollar hedge is likely to remain strong. $nd if the recession deepens concerns over the health of the *+ banking sector, demand for gold as a safe haven asset is also likely to remain robust. In summary, statistical analysis suggests there is no relationship between changes in *+ #3/ growth and changes in the gold price. )his reflects goldGs unique and diverse demand and supply base, which as for any freely4traded good ultimately determine the price. Consequently, a *+ recession does not have negative implications for the gold price. )he only element of demand likely to be affected by a recession is investment demand, but that in turn will depend on the JtypeK of recession. +o far, the brewing recession has been positive for gold, as it has been accompanied by a rise in inflation and a falling dollar, which has boosted demand for gold as a dollar and inflation hedge. La( est Gol1 0elts? )he famous 7itwatersrand in +outh $frica 4 the worldNs largest gold belt. )he )ian +han #old (elt 4 the second largest belt in the world.

La( est Gol1 P(o1$#%n Co$nt() %n t4e Wo(l1 +outh $frica $ustralia *nited +tates

I'-o(tant .o(l1 'a(/et? 0ondon is the biggest and the oldest gold market in the world. 8umbai is IndiaGs liberali"ed gold regime.

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD New 'ork is the home of gold future trading. Istanbul, 3ubai, +ingapore and Long !ong are doorways to important consuming regions.

W4at 'a/es Gol1 S-e#%al< Z T%'eless an1 2e() T%'el) In&est'ent. For thousands of years, gold has been pri"ed for its rarity, its beauty, and above all, for its unique characteristics as a store of value. Nations may rise and fall, currencies come and go, but gold endures. In todayGs uncertain climate, many investors turn to gold because it is an important and secure asset that can be tapped at any time, under virtually any circumstances. (ut there is another side to gold that is equally important, and that is its day4to4day performance as a stabili"ing influence for investment portfolios. )hese advantages are currently attracting considerable attention from financial professionals and sophisticated investors worldwide. Z Gol1 %s an effe#t%&e 1%&e(s%f%e(? 3iversification helps protect your portfolio against fluctuations in the value of any one4asset class. #old is an ideal diversifier, because the economic forces that determine the price of gold are different from, and in many cases opposed to, the forces that influence most financial assets. Z Gol1 %s t4e %1eal %ft? In many cultures, gold serves as a family treasure or a wealth transfer vehicle that is passed on from generation to generation. #old bullion coins make excellent gifts for birthdays, graduations, weddings, holidays and other occasions. )hey are appreciated as much for their intrinsic value as for their mystical appeal and beauty.

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD $nd because gold is available in a wide range of si"es and denominations, you donGt need to be wealthy to give the gift of gold. Z Gol1 %s 4% 4l) l%D$%1? #old can be readily bought or sold 1< hours a day, in large denominations and at narrow spreads. )his cannot be said of most other investments, including stocks of the worldGs largest corporations. #old is also more liquid than many alternative assets such as venture capital, real estate, and timberland. #old proved to be the most effective means of raising cash during the ,=@B stock market crash, and again during the ,==BC=@ $sian debt crisis. +o holding a portion of your portfolio in gold can be invaluable in moments when cash is essential, whether for margin calls or other needs. Z Gol1 (es-on1s .4en )o$ nee1 %t 'ost? %ecent independent studies have revealed that traditional diversifiers often fall during times of market stress or instability. 6n these occasions, most asset classes ;including traditional diversifiers such as bonds and alternative assets? all move together in the same direction. )here is no JcushioningK effect of a diversified portfolio [ leaving investors disappointed. Lowever, a small allocation of gold has been proven to significantly improve the consistency of portfolio performance, during both stable and unstable financial periods. #reater consistency of performance leads to a desirable outcome [ an investor whose expectations are met. W4at 'a/es Gol1 1%ffe(ent f(o' ot4e( #o''o1%t%es< )he flow demand of commodities is driven primarily by exogenous variables that are sub:ect to the business cycle, such as #3/ or absorption. Consequently, one would expect that a sudden unanticipated increase in the demand for a given commodity that is not met by an immediate increase in supply should, all else being equal, drive the price of the commodity upwards. Lowever, it is our contention that, in the case of gold, buffer stocks can be supplied with perfect elasticity. If this argument holds true, no such upward price pressure will be observed in the gold market in the presence of a positive demand shock.

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD )he existence of a sophisticated liquid market in gold has, over the past ,F years, provided a mechanism for gold held by central banks and other ma:or institutions to come back to the market. $lthough the demand for gold as an industrial input or as a final product ;:ewelry? differs across regions, it is argued that the core driver of the real price of gold is stock equilibrium rather than flow equilibrium. )his is not to say that exogenous shifts in flow demand will have no influence at all on the price of gold, but rather that the large supply of inventory is likely to dampen any resultant spikes in price. )he extent of this to dampening effect depends on the gestation lag within which liquid inventories can be converted in industrial inputs. In the gold industry such time lags are typically very short. #old has three crucial attributes that, combined, set it apart from other commodities. firstly, assayed gold is homogeneous secondly, gold is indestructible and fungible and thirdly, the inventory of aboveground stocks is astronomically large relative to changes in flow demand. 6ne consequence of these attributes is a dramatic reduction in gestation lags, given low search costs and the well4developed leasing market. 6ne would expect that the time required convert bullion into producer inventory is short, relative to other commodities which may be less liquid and less homogenous than gold and may require longer time scales to extract and be converted into usable producer inventory, making them more vulnerable to cyclical price volatility. 6f course, because of the variability of demand, the price responsiveness of each commodity will depend in part on precautionary inventory holding.

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD F%"%n of s-ot ol1 -(%#es?
spot price Frequen y 41 59 100 !er ent 41.0 59.0 100.0 Valid !er ent 41.0 59.0 100.0 "u#ulative !er ent 41.0 100.0

Valid

Investors Daily Trading Bases/Future Market Total

s$ot $ri e

Investors 41.0%

Daily Trading Bases/ 59.0%

Interpretation. In all ,-- sample si"e F= respondents are gold smiths. $ll are fix the price according to daily bases, which are displays in )& time to time. In a day in spot market three times price is changes.

So$(#es Of Gol1 Fo( T4e Gol1s'%t4s?

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD

Valid

Investors (o al su$$lier &'olesaler Total

Frequen y 41 5 54 100

!er ent 41.0 5.0 54.0 100.0

Valid !er ent 41.0 5.0 54.0 100.0

"u#ulative !er ent 41.0 4).0 100.0

o##odities

Investors 41.0%

&'olesaler 54.0%

(o al su$$lier 5.0%

Interpretation. $bove /ie chart shows that out of ,-- sample si"e, F<> of respondents get gold from wholesalers, F> are from local suppliers and remaining are investors. +o most of them get the gold from wholesalers.

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD

To st$1) .4et4e( t4e

ol1s'%t4s of 0el a$' #%t) a.a(e of

#o''o1%t) 'a(/et an1 t4e%( -e(#e-t%on.


W4e(e 1o )o$ -(efe( to %n&est<

invest Frequen y 9 10 49 +* 4 100 !er ent 9.0 10.0 49.0 +*.0 4.0 100.0 Valid !er ent 9.0 10.0 49.0 +*.0 4.0 100.0 "u#ulative !er ent 9.0 19.0 )*.0 9).0 100.0

Valid

,old Bank/Fi-ed De$osit .quity Mutual Funds /eal .state Total

invest
/eal .state 4.0% Mutual Funds +*.0% ,old 9.0% Bank/Fi-ed De$osit 10.0%

.quity 49.0%

Inte(-(etat%on? )he #raph clearly shows that most of the respondents are interested in investing in equity ;<=>? when compared to the other investment alternatives because they feel investing in equity will provide more returns to them.

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD

A(e )o$ a.a(e abo$t #o''o1%t) 'a(/et<

aware Frequen y *+ 1* 100 !er ent *+.0 1*.0 100.0 Valid !er ent *+.0 1*.0 100.0 "u#ulative !er ent *+.0 100.0

Valid

0es 1o Total

a2are
1o 1*.0%

0es *+.0%

Inte(-(etat%on? )he above pie chart describes that @1> of the investors ;goldsmiths or gold traders? are aware about the Commodity Future market and ,@> of them are not aware about Commodity Future 8arket. +o there is a need to create awareness about the commodity future market and its benefits. )here is a lot of potential is there to create customer and influence them to invest in Commodity Future market.

Ha&e )o$ %n&este1 %n #o''o1%t) f$t$(e 'a(/et<

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD

commodity Frequen y 13 1) )3 100 !er ent 13.0 1).0 )3.0 100.0 Valid !er ent 13.0 1).0 )3.0 100.0 "u#ulative !er ent 13.0 44.0 100.0

Valid

1ot a2are 0es 1o Total

o##odity
1ot a2 are 13.0%

0es 1).0% 1o )3.0%

Interpretation: )he pie chart shows that, even though the investors are aware about commodity future market only ,A> of them have actually invested in this market where as the remaining have not invested because among them ,B> are not aware and remaining AB> investors have not invested as they have a perception that it is risky and they even do not have much knowledge about trading mechanism.

In f$t$(e 1o )o$ .ant to t(a1e %n #o''o1%t) f$t$(e 'a(/et<

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD


future Frequen y 1) )1 +4 100 !er ent 1).0 )1.0 +4.0 100.0 Valid !er ent 1).0 )1.0 +4.0 100.0 "u#ulative !er ent 1).0 33.0 100.0

Valid

Investors 0es 1o Total

5uture
1o +4.0% Investors 1).0%

0es )1.0%

Interpretation: )he above pie chart represents that, the investors who have not yet invested in the commodity future market, out of them A,> of the investors are interested to invest in the coming future.

W4at t)-e of se(&%#es 1oes )o$ e"#e-t f(o' )o$( b(o/e(<

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD


service you expect from your broker Frequen y )9 14 14 5 100 !er ent )9.0 14.0 14.0 5.0 100.0 Valid !er ent )9.0 14.0 14.0 5.0 100.0 "u#ulative !er ent )9.0 *+.0 95.0 100.0

Valid

,enuine In5or#ation Moderate Brokerage ,ood 6ervi e /e o##endation Total

servi e you e-$e t 5ro# your 7roker


/e o##endation 5.0% ,ood 6ervi e 14.0% Moderate Brokerage 14.0%

,enuine In5or#ation )9.0%

Inte(-(etat%on? )he graph shows that, the investors expect that the brokers should provide them the genuine information regarding the market. $lso they want moderate brokerage and good services from the brokers.

'a(/et.

To anal)ses t4e %'-a#t of s-ot ol1 'a(/et on f$t$(e ol1

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD

8y Fourth ob:ective is to identify the impact of +pot gold commodity market on #old Commodity Future market, means how the prices prevailing in the commodities affect the Commodity Future 8arket. )he following table and chart shows the Correlation between these two markets. SPOT PRICE ,-1-B.1= ,-1B,-FBB.@A ,-B1=.,< ,-=-1.,< ,,1=,.<2 ,,<2<.<2 ,,F@1.B, ,,A-=.<2 ,,ABB.<2 ,1-1<.B, ,121-.1= ,1B2F.1= ,1@=F.1= ,1F-2.,< ,1,<=.FB ,,B1<.AB FUTURE PRICE ,-1F2.@A ,-1@,.@A ,-<BB.<2 ,-@<,.<2 ,,11=.<2 ,,2,-.,< ,,<BB.B, ,,A@,.1= ,,FBB.FB ,,A-,,=A-.1= ,11B, ,1B-,1@A2.1= ,1<2F.<2 ,1,<< ,,A==.22

DATE ,-4,A 3ec 1--B ,B412 3ec 1--B 1<42- 3ec 1--B 2,,,4A Oan 1--@ B4,2 Oan 1--@ ,<41- Oan 1--@ 1,41B Oan 1--@ 1@42, :an,,42 Feb 1--@ <4,- Feb 1--@ ,,4,B Feb 1--@ ,@41< Feb 1--@ 1F41= Feb,,41 8ar 1--@ 24= mar 1--@ ,-4,A 8ar 1--@ ,B412 8ar 1--@ 1<42- 8ar 1--@ 2,,,4F $pr 1--@

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD

Correlation;r? Q

N9'4;X) (Y) RNX2 ( X)2]1/2RNY2 ( Y)2]1/2

4**349419+0 8 19)*04919))44.* :4*9019*3+1* 8 4*341*44159;1/+ :4**50)*4)+9 8 4*))5+4*41);1/+

Q 0.9941 /robable Drror Q -.AB<FT;,4r1?Cn = 0.6745*(1- 0.99312)/ 17 Q -.--11< ATprobable error Q -.-,2F Spot & future price
s$ot $ri e 5uture $ri e

14000 1+000 10000 *000 )000 4000 +000 0


1) 13 d e <+ 4 0 +4 d e 3 <4 0 0 41 d e 3 =1 <) 03 3< >an 14 0 14 >a * <+ n 0 0 >a * + +* 1 n < <4 1> +3 > 0* an an =1 <4 0* 4< 5e 7 10 0 11 5e * <1 7 0 +5 1 3 5 e * <+ * <+ 7 0 95 e7 4 5e * =1 7 <+ 0 * # 4< ar 9 10 #a 0* <1 r 0 ) 13 # * a <+ r 4 0 +4 # * <4 ar 0 0 41 #a * =1 r 0 <5 a$ * r0 *

Prices

10 <

Date

Inte(-(etat%on? Lence,

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD Correlation is -.==2, /robable Drror is -.--11< $bove correlation calculation shows the correlation value -.==2, of spot and Future prices of commodity #old and the probable error -.--11<. Lence the six time of probable error i.e. -.-,2F is less than the correlation. )herefore, the prices prevailing in both the market are highly correlated. )his means, the future prices will very much following the trend of +pot commodity market price. In fact the future prices will reflect the spot prices very closely.

Co((elat%on bet.een S-ot Gol1 P(%#e an1 Dolla( Rate


+/6) /%ICD ,-1-B ,-1B,-FB@ ,-B1= ,-=-1 ,,1=, ,,<2< ,,F@2 ,,A-= ,,ABB ,1-1F ,121,1B2F ,1@=F ,1F-2 ,1,F,,B1F

3$)D ,-4,A 3ec 1--B ,B412 3ec 1--B 1<42- 3ec 1--B 2,,,4A Oan 1--@ B4,2 Oan 1--@ ,<41- Oan 1--@ 1,41B Oan 1--@ 1@42, Oan,,42 Feb 1--@ <4,- Feb 1--@ ,,4,B Feb 1--@ ,@41< Feb 1--@ 1F41= feb,,41 8ar 1--@ 24= 8ar 1--@ ,-4,A 8ar 1--@ ,B412 8ar 1--@ 1<42- 8ar 1--@ 2,,,4F $pr 1--@

\ %$)D 2=.<, 2=.A 2=.<F 2@.A= 2=.21 2=.22 2=.<B 2=.<, 2=.A <-.-1 <2=.@= <-.<F <-.<< <-.F1 <-.,F <-

> Changes in prices +pot \ rate -.--A,<<, -.--<BF -.-1==BA< 4-.--2@1 -.-,<2-1, 4-.-,=,= -.-,A,1<2 -.-,A1, -.-2FB-B2 -.---22 -.-,1AA<F -.--2FA -.-,1=A@< 4-.--,FA -.--12-A< -.--<=B -.--F@FB2 -.-,-F -.-1=B2== 4-.---A, -.-1<F@-2 4-.--1A, -.-22A@<2 -.-,2@= -.-,1FA2F 42.FD4-F 4-.-2-<-=@ -.--,=< 4-.-1@1B@A 4-.--=,2 4-.-2<=B1@ 4-.--2B1

Correlation ;r? of +pot #old /rices and 3ollar %ate is -.1-<1 /robable error is -.,AF=

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD

Spot Gold Prices & Dollar Rate


% o5 "'ange in 6$ot $ri es 0.04 0.04 0.0+ % of Chan e in Rate 0.01 0
08 08 08 08 08 08 08 ar m 31 c0 c0 b0 08 0 3 -9 8 m ar ja n 08 ar feb ar ja n ja n ja n de de fe fe pr b 08

% o5 'anges in ? /ate

<0.01 <0.0+
-2 3 17

08

ar

08 m

eb

14

21

4 -1

24

31

,1 -

11

18

,1

10

17

ja n

-3 1

<0.04 <0.04

28

Date

Inte(-(etat%on? $s, /.D. is not more than r ;correlation?, according to rule three nothing can be conclude with certainty. It means that correlation between spot gold price and \ rate is neither significant nor certainty. (ut analy"ing above chart and correlation ;-.1-<1?, it can be concluded that correlation between dollar and spot gold price is not so much significant. It means if one price increases other will be decrease. For example, in the week of 1< to 2- 3ecember and ,< to 1-th Oanuary #old price increases and dollar rate decreases.

25

-2 9

f eb

24

,1 5a

-2 0

-2 7

-6

-1 7

-2 4

-3 0

2m

-1 6

-2 3

7 -1

,1

-3 0

-3 f

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD

To st$1) t4e fa#to(s s$#4 as e#ono'%# fa#to(s of US> .o(l1


NEWS OF 0ILLION

-ol%t%#al an1 ot4e( fa#to(s affe#t on f$t$(e 'a(/et.


Walte( De Wet Stan1a(1 0an/> Lon1on )he current global economic environment remains bullish for gold, but should

ensure that volatile conditions remain. 7e see the *+ economy coming under increased pressure during the first half of 1--@. $s a result credit spreads should widen further. Combined with sovereign and political risk on the rise in certain countries, we should see support for gold in 1--@L,. )he *+ dollarGs woes are linked to *+ interest rates declining. )he Fed is set to continue easing rates, while the DC( seems unperturbed by slowing economic growth, and is unlikely to cut rates for now. $lthough :ewelry demand in ma:or centers showed a decline towards end41--B, this must be a continuous trend before any real price impact will be seen. )he new futures contract that started trading on the +hanghai Futures exchange is bound to renew interest in gold as an investment in China. 7e do believe this impact could be large. Continued portfolio diversification via commodity investment vehicles should provide support to the metal on the downside. )here are three factors that play a dominating role as the driving force of precious metals prices. )he price of crude oil serves as a good proxy for inflation fears. )he next ma:or fundamental factor is the *+ dollar exchange rate, as metals are priced in this currency. Lere, either the *+ dollar index or the D*%C*+3 exchange rate has the closest correlation. $nd finally, precious metals are not necessarily a safe haven. If investors risk appetite drops due to crisis in financial markets, precious metals are often sold to cover losses. )he *+ stock market provides a good indication of risk aversion. Crude oil started the year with a bang as it traded at \,--Cbbl for the first time. Lowever, much of the price increase is based on speculation rather than the underlying supply and demand balance. In 1--@, demand is expected to expand less than the consensus view due to a slowdown of #B economies. In China as well, #3/ growth is likely to be lower than last year. (y the end of this year, (rent is predicted to be trading at \B-Cbbl.

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD )hus, one of the main fundamentals suggests a significant correction rather than a continuation of the upward trend of precious metals in 1--@. Lowever, this does not contradict our forecast. In the first half of the year, other factors will be superimposed on the effect of falling oil prices. )he correlation between gold and crude oil has been greater over the last eight years than that between gold and the D*%C*+3 exchange rate, but there are also phases in which the correlation is rather less close. )hese periods include the beginning of the year, when different seasonal patterns can lead to a divergence. 7hile crude oil often eases over the winter, demand from the :ewelry industry means that gold and silver prices tend to rise until the end of the first quarter. $lthough :ewelry demand may not be quite as great as expected in view of the high current prices, it should support the prices of gold and silver. In the case of platinum it appears that :ewelry demand in China is falling, whereas in gold it remains strong despite price rises. 3emand from financial investors is far more important than demand from the :ewelry industry for the development of precious metal prices. It is often said that investors buy gold as a hedge against rising inflation. Lowever, empirical experience does not bear this out. *+ inflation has no significant effect on the gold price. 3emand from financial investors is largely determined by the *+ dollarGs performance in the currency markets. +ince the sub prime mortgage crisis broke out, what has driven the dollarGs weakness is the expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates so that the dollar becomes less attractive relative to other currencies. Following the recent weak *+ economic data and the rise in the unemployment rate to F>, our *+ economists anticipate that the Fed will start lowering interest rates more aggressively, cutting the Fed funds rate during the first half of the year in four steps of 1Fbp each to 2.1F>.)his means that the Fed Funds target rate is well below the DC( refinancing rate. )he *+ dollar is expected to weaken against the Duro to ,.F2 in 51, but in L1 the tables will be turned. *+ #3/ growth should pick up again as early as 51 and further accelerate after the summer, so that the market will no longer expect further interest rate cuts. In the Duro "one on the other hand weaker growth is expected, so that the DC( should reduce the refinancing rate by 1Fbp.)he *+ dollar is likely to appreciate against the Duro to ,.<2. /recious metals will then face a headwind from falling oil prices and a

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD firmer dollar. )hey will not be able to withstand this pressure and prices should ease significantly. +ilver is likely to perform better than gold in L, but to perform worse in L1. 3ue to production problems in +outh $frica and the demand pattern of the automobile industry, platinum is expected to hold better than palladium. Da&%s> Da&%1 Credit Suisse Standard Securities Johannesburg *pward pressure on the gold price is likely being driven by the *+ economic environment, rising oil and commodity prices and a change in the dynamics surrounding supply and demand. )hese combined factors have resulted in a weakening of the *+ dollar, which in turn has driven gold higher. )he economic environment in the *+ was recently :olted by sub prime mortgage losses, the tightening of the credit market and the lowering of interest rates. Ligher oil prices will likely result in inflationary pressures, which in turn will put upward pressure on gold. )urning to supply4and4demand fundamentals, over the longer term, our studies indicate that global gold production ;primary supply? will begin to decline as the diminishing number of new reserves fails to compensate for dying mines. )he decline in production will likely be accelerated should the gold mining industry continue to incur significant year4on4year inflation rates which are not offset by similar or significantly higher gold price increases. #eopolitical tensions, which generally lead to higher gold prices and price volatility, have heightened with the political turmoil in /akistan after the assassination of (ena"ir (hutto and the cross border operations of )urkish troops to hunt down !urdish separatists in Iraq. )ensions are also ever4present between the *+ and Iran and the *+ and North !orea. #iven this longer4term scenario, we believe the supply4demand imbalance going forward will begin to accelerate at an ever4increasing pace into a net deficit, which in turn will likely put significant upward pressure on the gold price. S$/% Coo-e( arclays Capital! "ondon In our view, gold prices are set to post positive gains for the seventh consecutive

year on an annual average basis. Following a significant swing into deficit last year, the market fundamentals remain tightly balanced and external drivers remain positive. Dven

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD with the dollar stabili"ing at its recent lower levels, investment demand remains strong. #old prices were buoyed by investor interest and this is likely to remain the key price determinant this year. Dxternal factors such as higher inflation expectations, broader economic concerns, geopolitical tensions and Fed rate easing are likely to drive prices higher. 6n a fundamental basis mine supply remains constrained and physical and investment demand should emerge upon price dips providing a price floor. F%fteen F$n1a'ental Reasons fo( b$ll%s4 ($n of Gol1 !. Global C$((en#) Debase'ent? )he *+ dollar is fundamentally I technically very weak and should fall dramatically. Lowever, other countries are very reluctant to see their currencies appreciate and are resisting the fall of the *+ dollar. )hus, we are in the early stages of a massive global currency debasement, which will see tangibles, and most particularly gold, rise significantly in price. ,. In&est'ent De'an1 fo( Gol1 %s A##ele(at%n ? 7hen the crowd recogni"es what is unfolding, they will seek an alternative to paper currencies and financial assets and this will create an enormous investment demand for gold. )o facilitate this demand, a number of new vehicles like Central #old )rust and gold Dxchange )raded Funds ;DlfNs? are being created. 6. Ala('%n F%nan#%al Dete(%o(at%on %n t4e US? In the space of two years, the federal government budget surplus has been transformed into a yawning deficit, which will persist as far as the eye can see. $t the same time, the current account deficit has reached levels which have portended currency collapse in virtually every other instance in history. +. Ne at%&e Real Inte(est Rates %n Rese(&e C$((en#) HUS 1olla(E? )o combat the deteriorating financial conditions in the *+, interest rates have been dropped to rock bottom levels, real interest rates are now negative and, according to statements from the Fed spokesmen, are expected to remain so for some time. )here has

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD been a very strong historical relationship between negative real interest rates and stronger gold prices.

5. D(a'at%# In#(eases %n Mone) S$--l) %n t4e US an1 Ot4e( Nat%ons? *+ authorities are terrified about the prospects for deflation given the unprecedented debt burden at all levels of society in the *+. Fed #overnor (en (ernanke is on record as saying the Fed has a printing press and will use it to combat deflation if necessary. 6ther nations are following in the *+Ns footsteps and global money supply is accelerating. )his is very gold friendly. 7. E"%sten#e of a H$ e an1 G(o.%n Ga- bet.een M%ne S$--l) an1 T(a1%t%onal De'an1. #old mine supply is roughly 1F-- tonnes per annum and traditional demand ;:ewellery, industrial users, etc.? has exceeded this by a considerable margin for a number of years. +ome of this gap has been filled by recycled scrap but central bank gold has been the primary source of above4ground supply. ;. M%ne S$--l) %s ant%#%-ate1 to De#l%ne %n t4e ne"t T4(ee to Fo$( Yea(s? Dven if traditional demand continues to erode due to ongoing worldwide economic weakness, the supply demand imbalance is expected to persist due to a decline in mine supply. 8ine supply will contract in the next several years, irrespective of gold prices, due to a dearth of exploration in the post (re49 era, a shift away from high grading which was necessary for survival in the sub4economic gold price environment of the past five years and the natural exhaustion of existing mines.

=. La( e S4o(t Pos%t%ons?

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD )o fill the gap between mine supply and demand, central bank gold has been mobili"ed primarily through the leasing mechanism, which facilitated producer hedging and financial speculation. +trong evidence suggests that between ,-,--- and ,A,--- tonnes ;2-4 F-> of all central bank gold? is currently in the market. )his is owed to the central banks by the bullion banks, which are the counter party in the transactions. 8. Lo. Inte(est Rates D%s#o$(a e He1 %n ? %ates are low and falling. 7ith low rates, there isnNt sufficient contango to create higher prices in the out years. )hus there is little incentive to hedge, and gold producers are not only hedging, they are reducing their existing hedge positions, thus removing gold from the market. !:. R%s%n Gol1 P(%#es an1 Lo. Inte(est Rates D%s#o$(a e F%nan#%al S-e#$lat%on on t4e S4o(t S%1e? 7hen gold prices were continuously falling and financial speculators could access central bank gold at a minimal leasing rate ;-.F 4 ,> per annum?, sell it and reinvest the proceeds in a high yielding bond or )reasury bill, the trade was viewed as a lay up. Dveryone did it and now there are numerous stale short positions. Lowever, these trades now make no sense with a rising gold price and declining interest rates. !!. T4e Cent(al 0an/s a(e nea(%n an Infle#t%on Po%nt .4en t4e) .%ll be Rel$#tant to -(o&%1e 'o(e Gol1 to t4e Ma(/et? )he central banks have supplied too much already via the leasing mechanism. In addition, Far Dastern central banks who are accumulating enormous quantities of *+ dollars are rumored to be buyers of gold to diversify away from the *+ dollar. !,. Gol1 %s In#(eas%n %n Po-$la(%t)? #old is seen in a much more positive light in countries beginning to come to the forefront on the world scene. /rominent developing countries such as China, India and %ussia have been accumulating gold. In fact, China with its ,.2 billion people recently established a

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD National #old Dxchange and relaxed control over the asset. 3emand in China is expected to rise sharply and could reach F-- tonnes in the next few years. !6. Gol1 as Mone) %s Ga%n%n C(e1en#e? Islamic nations are investigating a currency backed by gold ;the #old 3iner?, the new /resident of $rgentina proposed, during his campaign, a gold backed peso as an antidote for the financial catastrophe which his country has experienced and %ussia is talking about a fully convertible currency with gold backing. !+. R%s%n Geo-ol%t%#al Tens%ons? )he weakening conditions in the 8iddle Dast, the *+ occupation of Iraq, the nuclear ambitions of North !orea and the growing conflict between the *+ and China due to ChinaNs refusal to allow its currency to appreciate against the *+ dollar headline the geopolitical issues, which could explode at anytime. $ fearful public has a tendency to gravitate towards gold. !5. L%'%te1 S%3e of t4e Total Gol1 Ma(/et P(o&%1es T(e'en1o$s Le&e(a e? $ll the physical gold in existence is worth somewhat more than \, trillion *+ dollars while the value of all the publicly traded gold companies in the world is less than \,-billion *+ dollars. 7hen the fundamentals ultimately encourage a strong flow of capital towards gold and gold equities, the trillions upon trillions worth of paper money could propel both to unfathomably high levels.

Conclusion. )he dollar is in an irreversible death spiral, crude oil prices have topped ] \,--Cbarrel, and the stability of societies around the world are becoming more and more fragile by the day as political and religious factions continue to furiously battle. )hese fundamentals are compounded by an approaching recession triggered by the housing and credit crisis building in the *nited +tates. +o Foreign investors are going to think twice

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD about putting their money into *+ stocks especially with the dollar entrenched in a long term bear market. $s #old and silver are also commodities and when paper markets and governments are performing well, precious metals like gold and silver go back to their status as commodities. 7hat we are seeing now, however, because of the lower dollar and investor flows because of safe haven type of purchasing, everyone looking to precious metals, and investors are moving into the precious metals to protect their hard4 earned savings. +o gold is becoming money again. I think gold prices may move from \,--- to \1--- ;i.e. around %s,2--- to %s.11---? an ounce in a matter of six to eight months, depending on how the issues with the dollar pan out from here.

F%n1%n s
In India 8C9 is trading in bullion market. #oldsmiths get their raw material from wholesale dealers. )hey fix the prices on daily trading bases. Lence there is positive correlation between both market traders can easily predict the future prices of the commodities and hedge their positions.

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD Correlation between spot gold price and dollar rate is -.1-<@ I probable error is -.,AF=. +o it would not be concluded that both spot gold prices and dollar rates are highly correlated or not. 8ost of the respondents are interested in investing in equity ;i.e. <=>? when compared to the other investment alternatives because they feel investing in equity will provide more returns to them. Now commodity future market is not new to the investors as almost @1> of respondents are aware about commodity future market out of them only ,A> have actually invested. AB> of Investors have not invested as they have a perception that it is risky and they even do not have much knowledge about trading mechanism.

)he investors who have not yet invested in the commodity future market, out of them A,> of the investors are interested to invest in the coming future. )he investors expect that the brokers should provide them the genuine information regarding the market. $lso they want moderate brokerage and good services from the brokers.

For gold price fluctuation main reasons are 3ollar depreciation C appreciation 7orld distress

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD Increase in money supply Inflation

SUGGESTIONS
(oth +pot #old I Future #old 8arkets are positively correlated the traders have knowledge about the commodity demand and supply and their price fluctuations. +o !arvy can approach these traders and they can easily convince them so these people are the targeted customers for !arvy. 8ore $wareness program has to be conducted by !arvy consultants so that already aware investor takes the challenge to invest in this commodity future market. (ecause since this was new to the market and also risky but gives good

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD return. so it can be done through by giving advertisements in local channels, News papers, by sending D4mail to present customers etc From survey it is found that most of the potential customers are concerned about the genuine information and moderate brokerage so !arvy can look upon this. If it can give good information and charge moderate brokerage it will help to attract more and more customers. $s correlation between spot gold rate and dollar rate is not high, investor can hedge their risk by investing in gold future and dollar. +o they get benefit of diversification. )he best opportunities for investors to protect themselves against the coming financial reckoning are with precious metals and mining stocks.

CONCLUSION
Capital market is already matured and reached at high level, every investor interested to invest but not in commodity Future 8arket due to lack of awareness. $s per 3ata analysis most of the investors do not have much idea of commodity market in (elgaum they are required to be given awareness training and knowledge with the help of workshops and seminars, as investors are willing to know more about commodity market i.e. A,> of the respondents are willing to invest in the market )he !arvy Consultancy and other (rokers should take ma:or steps to give fare knowledge about the commodity market and its operations to the public. Compared to Capital market Commodity market is less risky ;minimum margin, easy to hold, no manipulation I fraud?, maximum profitability. Commodity market is in growing stage.

A STUDY OF COMMODITY MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GOLD $s in my study it is found that, there exists a high degree of positive correlation between +pot Commodity 8arket and Commodity Future 8arket. If an amount of small change in the spot gold market prices has the direct impact on the future prices of gold in commodity market. +o )raders can take more advantage of this. (ecause they can predict the future prices, depending upon the present demand and +upply in the spot market. $s they also get benefits of diversification, means in case of uncertainty in gold market they can invest in dollar i.e. forex market. It helps to all such as Individual investors and gold traders. )here is a maximum hours of trading that is from ,-am to ,,.FF pm. It is better for working class people to deal at evening.

XIn the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. )here is no safe store of value.X