Load Forecasting

Load demand forecasting is essentially important for the electric companies. It has many applications including energy purchasing and generation planning, load switching, contract evaluation, and infrastructure development. A large variety of mathematical methods have been developed for load forecasting. Many variables and factors could affect the load forecasting. The most important factor is load peak for the given regions for at least for the last 5 years. Forecasting refers to predict how greatly power will be expected to supply where and when the power must be delivered. Electric load forecasting can be divided into three categories, namely: Short-term load forecasting, Medium-term load forecasting and, Long-term load forecasting. The short-term load forecasting predicts load demand in time interval from one day to several weeks. It can be used to approximate load flows to make decision that can avoid overloading. Therefore, this will help in developing network reliability and decreases occurrences of equipment failures and blackouts. The medium-term load forecasting predicts the load demand from a month to several years. This will provides essential information for future planning operation. The long-term load forecasting predicts the load demand in time interval from a year up to twenty years, it is essentially for power system planning, utility development, and employees hiring.

Forecasting Techniques Forecasting techniques relays only on the extrapolation of past observation of the load using mathematical procedure to extrapolate them into the future. One of the forecasting techniques is the time-series models. These models depend on the fitting of a time series to original data. The load, PL (t), is expressed as a function of time t, f (t). Some of the models are: Straight Line Time Polynomial Exponential PL(t) = a + b.t PL(t) = bi t i
i

PL = a.ebt

The parameters of the above models can be estimated using the least-square technique. Method of Least Squares Example 1- Linear Model Based on the annual peak load data given in Table 1 a. Find the function of the form y = c1 + c2x that is the best least-squares fit to the data points. b. Hence estimate the annual peak load and growth for five more years (6-10).

Table 1 Substation annual peak loads

Solution: The least squares solution that minimizes the least-square error is given by Y = X .C C = X + .Y = X T . X

[(

.X T Y

y1 1 x1 y 1 x C C 17920 2 1 2 = . 1 = . M M M C 2 C 2 4520 y n 1 x n
y = 17920 + 4520 x kW

Based on this model the annual peak load for the subsequent five (6-10) years can be estimated. The results are shown in Table 2 Table 2: Estimated annual peak loads for years 6 to 10

y = 17920 + 4520 x kW
70000

y = 4520x + 17920
60000

R = 0.9377

Annual Peak Load, kW

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

0 0 2 4 6 Year Given Data Forecasted Linear (Given Data) 8 10 12

Example 2- Exponential Model Based on the annual peak load data given in Table 1 a. Find the function of the form y=c1exp(c2x) kW that is the best least-squares fit to the data points. b. Hence estimate the annual peak load and growth for five more years (6-10). Based on this model the annual peak load for the subsequent five (6-10) years can be estimated. The results are shown in Table 3 Table 3 Estimated annual peak loads for years 6 to 10 Year 6 7 8 9 10 Peal Load, kW 48174 55947 64976 75461 87638

y=19633*exp(0.1496*t) kW
100000 90000 80000 Annual Peak Load, kW 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 0 2 4 6 Year Given Data Forecasted Expon. (Given Data) 8 10 12

y = 19633e
2

0.1496x

R = 0.9355