Vous êtes sur la page 1sur 47

CASE STUDY

Analysis of Situation Objective

Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method

Application: High-Rise Building

Conclusion

Univ.-Doz.Dipl.-Ing.Dr.techn.

Christian Hofstadler
Associate Professor Institute of Construction Management and Economics Graz University of Technology, Austria hofstadler@tugraz.at

Source: Hofstadler

Palisade Risk Conference in London


Construction Management 1

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

CASE STUDY

Analysis of Situation Objective

Construction time is of crucial importance when it comes to utilizing the production factors in an effective and efficient way. Construction periods that are too short usually result in higher cost, poorer quality and a larger number of disputes. This presentation sets out to demonstrate the calculation of construction time and cost whilst considering key construction management parameters. Beyond a simple, deterministic method, other options for calculation are shown that rely on probability calculus. The approaches described to determine construction time and cost are illustrated by a building project example.

Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method

Application: High-Rise Building

Conclusion

Source: Hofstadler

Palisade Risk Conference in London


Construction Management 2

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

Production Factors Control Circuit

Analysis of Situation Objective

Production Factors

Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method

Elementary Production Factors

Construction Time/Cost

Dispositive Production Factors

Application: High-Rise Building

Work
Conclusion

Organisation

Equipment

Planning

Material

Direction

Monitoring

Source:

Palisade Risk Conference in London


Construction Management 3

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

Productivity as a Function of Time

Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

Productivity [%]

Analysis of Situation Objective

Adequate Construction time

Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method

100 %
Application: High-Rise Building

Conclusion

No go

Construction time [d]

Source: Hofstadler

Palisade Risk Conference in London


Construction Management 4

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

Duration: From the Rough Planning to Detailed Planning Construction Time/ Costs

Analysis of Situation Objective

Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method

Rough Planning

Detailed Planning

Application: High-Rise Building

Conclusion

Entire construction

Component Assembly

Component Assembly per Floor

Components/ Production units

Source: Hofstadler

Palisade Risk Conference in London


Construction Management 5

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

Duration: From the Rough Planning to Detailed Planning


Construction Time/ Costs

Analysis of Situation Objective

Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

Rough Planning
Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method

Detailed Planning

Application: High-Rise Building

Entire construction

Component Assembly

Component Assembly per Floor

Components/ Production units

Conclusion

+
Accuracy

+
Processing effort

+
Certainty
Source: Hofstadler

_
6

Palisade Risk Conference in London


Construction Management

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

Calculation of Construction Time and Costs Calculation Construction Time/Costs

Analysis of Situation Objective

Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method

Calculation Mode 1
Application: High-Rise Building

Calculation Mode 2
Simplified Stochastic Approach

Calculation Mode 3
Application of Monte Carlo Method

Deterministic Approach
Conclusion

Source: Hofstadler

Palisade Risk Conference in London


Construction Management 7

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

Calculation of Construction Time and Costs Calculation Construction Time/Costs

Analysis of Situation Objective

Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method

Calculation Mode 1
Application: High-Rise Building

Calculation Mode 2
Simplified Stochastic Approach

Calculation Mode 3
Application of Monte Carlo Method

Deterministic Approach
Conclusion

Source: Hofstadler

Palisade Risk Conference in London


Construction Management 8

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

Calculation of Construction Time: Deterministic Approach

Analysis of Situation Objective

Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method

Application: High-Rise Building

Conclusion

Source: Hofstadler

Palisade Risk Conference in London


Construction Management 9

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

Calculation Equation: Rough planning Calculation of Construction Time for Reinforced Concrete Works
Analysis of Situation Objective

Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method

Application: High-Rise Building

Conclusion

WRCW , MAX WRCW , A

..................... Maximum number of workers [wh/hr] ..................... Average number of workers [wh/hr] ..................... Total duration of reinforced concrete works [d] ..................... Duration of the starting period of reinforced concrete works [d] ..................... concrete works [d]
Duration of the main construction time of reinforced

DTOT DSP
DMCT

DFS

..................... Duration of the final stage of reinforced concrete works [d]


Source: Hofstadler

Palisade Risk Conference in London


Construction Management 10

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

Calculation Equation: Rough planning Calculation of Construction Time for Reinforced Concrete Works
Analysis of Situation Objective

Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method

Application: High-Rise Building

Conclusion

DRCW, BU

QC WRCW WT RCW TRC A, RCW

BU T , RCW 100 %

DRCW, MIN
Source: Hofstadler

DRCW

DRCW, MAX
Palisade Risk Conference in London
Construction Management 11

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

Calculation Equation: Rough planning Calculation of Construction Time for Reinforced Concrete Works
Analysis of Situation Objective

Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method

Application: High-Rise Building

Conclusion

DRCW, BU RC A, FW

QC WRCW WT RCW FRA, BD RC A, RW RRA, BD RC A,CW

BU T , RCW 100 %

DRCW, MIN
Source: Hofstadler

DRCW

DRCW, MAX
Palisade Risk Conference in London
Construction Management 12

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

Calculation Equation: Calculation of Construction Time


QC RC A, FW WRCW WT RCW FRA, BD RC A, RW RRA, BD RC A,CW BU T , RCW 100 %

DRCW, BU
Analysis of Situation Objective

Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

DRCW,BU
QC WRCW WTRCW

. Duration of the reinforced concrete works incl. Buffer [d] . Concrete quantity [m] . Average number of workers [wh/hr] . Average daily working time [hr/d] Average labor consumption rate for . formwork-related activities [wh/m] . Average formwork ratio for the entire building [m/m] . Average labor consumption rate for reinforcement works [wh/t] . Average reinforcement ratio for the entire building [t/m] . Average labor consumption rate for concrete works [wh/m] . Buffer for construction time [%]
Source: Hofstadler

Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method

Application: High-Rise Building

Conclusion

RCA, FW

FRA, BD
RCA, RW

RRA, BD
RCA,CW BUT , RCW

Palisade Risk Conference in London


Construction Management 13

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

Calculation of Cost of Production: Deterministic Approach

Analysis of Situation Objective

Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method

Application: High-Rise Building

Conclusion

Source: Hofstadler

Palisade Risk Conference in London


Construction Management 14

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

Calculation Equation: Rough planning Calculation of Cost of Production for Reinforced Concrete Works
Analysis of Situation Objective

Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

CPRCW , BU

QC

TCR A, RCW WA A, RCW

c A, EM , RCW

MU OHD 100 %

BU C , RCW 100 %

Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method

CRCW, BU
QC
TCRA,RCW

. Duration of the reinforced concrete works incl. Buffer [d] . Concrete quantity [m] Average total labor consumption rate for . reinforced concrete works [wh/m] . Average average wage for reinforced concrete works [/wh] Average equipment and materials costs for . reinforced concrete works [/m] . Mark-up for overhead costs [%] . Buffer for costs [%]
Source: Hofstadler

Application: High-Rise Building

Conclusion

WAA, RCW

c A, EM, RCW
MU OHD
BUC , RCW

Palisade Risk Conference in London


Construction Management 15

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

Calculation Equation: Rough planning Calculation of Cost of Production for Reinforced Concrete Works
Analysis of Situation Objective

Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

CPRCW , BU

QC

TCR A, RCW WA A, RCW

c A, EM , RCW

MU OHD 100 %

BU C , RCW 100 %

Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method

Application: High-Rise Building

Conclusion

CPRCW, MIN

CPRCW

CPRCW, MAX

Source: Hofstadler

Palisade Risk Conference in London


Construction Management 16

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

Calculation Equation: Rough planning

Analysis of Situation Objective

TCRA, RCW

RCA, FW FRA, BD RCA, RW RRA, BD RCA,CW

Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

TCRA,RCW
RCA, FW

Average total labor consumption rate for . reinforced concrete works [wh/m] Average labor consumption rate for . formwork-related activities [wh/m] . Average formwork ratio for the entire building [m/m] . Average labor consumption rate for reinforcement works [wh/t] . Average reinforcement ratio for the entire building [t/m] . Average labor consumption rate for concrete works [wh/m]

Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method

Application: High-Rise Building

FRA, BD
RCA, RW

Conclusion

RRA, BD
RCA,CW

Source: Hofstadler

Palisade Risk Conference in London


Construction Management 17

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

Calculation Equation: Rough planning

Analysis of Situation Objective

c A, EM, RCW

c A, EM, FW FRA, BD c A, EM, RW RRA, BD c A, EM,CW

Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

c A, EM, RCW
c A, EM , FW

Average equipment and materials costs for . reinforced concrete works [/m]

Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method

Average equipment and materials costs for . formwork works [/m]


. Average formwork ratio for the entire building [m/m] Average equipment and materials costs for . reinforcement works [/t] . Average reinforcement ratio for the entire building [t/m] Average equipment and materials costs for . concrete works [/m]

Application: High-Rise Building

FRA, BD
c A, EM , RW

Conclusion

RRA, BD
c A, EM ,CW

Source: Hofstadler

Palisade Risk Conference in London


Construction Management 18

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

Calculation of Construction Time: Application of Monte Carlo Method

Analysis of Situation Objective

Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method

Application: High-Rise Building

Conclusion

Source: Hofstadler

Palisade Risk Conference in London


Construction Management 19

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

Influences on Production Rate

Analysis of Situation Objective


Construction method

Type of construction project

Location of the construction project External

Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

Working time scheme

Working time regulations

Internal
General construction site conditions

Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method


General operating conditions

Daily working time

Disruptive influences

Influences of the construction method

Staff qualification

Application: High-Rise Building

Labor productivity
Conclusion
Influences of the construction method

Production Rate

Practice

Composition of the working group

General operating conditions

Number of workers
Specific structural conditions

Familiarization
General construction site conditions

Specific structure conditions Availability Number of equipment Work space

Construction method

Source: Hofstadler

Palisade Risk Conference in London


Construction Management 20

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

Selection of distribution functions and input of individual values

RCFW

FRBD

RCRW

RRBD

RCCW

Calculation with @RISK Monte Carlo Method

TRCRCW

Presenting the Results as Probability Distribution

Use within Interaction Diagrams

Analysis of Situation Objective

Interaction diagram for reinforced concrete works


12.000 11.500 11.000 10.500 10.000 9.500 9.000 8.500 8.000 7.500 7.000 6.500 6.000 5.500 5.000 4.500 4.000 3.500 3.000 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 0.500 0.000
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method

II

DWT = 8 hr/d DWT = 9 hr/d DWT = 10 hr/d DWT = 11 hr/d


DWT = 12 hr/d DWT = 13 hr/d

Hourly output [m/hr]

Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

Application: High-Rise Building


140

DWT = 14 hr/d DWT = 15 hr/d DWT = 16 hr/d

130

120

110

12.000 W = 10 wh/hr W = 15 wh/hr W = 20 wh/hr 11.500 11.000 W = 25 wh/hr W = 30 wh/hr W = 35 wh/hr 10.500 W = 40 wh/hr W = 45 wh/hr W = 50 wh/hr 10.000 W = 55 wh/hr W = 60 wh/hr W = 65 wh/hr 9.500 W = 70 wh/hr W = 75 wh/hr W = 80 wh/hr 9.000 8.500 8.000 7.500 7.000 6.500 6.000 5.500 5.000 4.500 4.000 3.500 3.000 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 0.500 0.000 5.00 5.25 5.50 5.75 6.00 6.25 6.50 6.75 7.00 7.25 7.50 7.75 8.00 8.25 8.50

Conclusion

Daily output [m/d]


140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
0
DRCW= 40 d DRCW= 45 d DRCW= 50 d DRCW= 55 d DRCW= 60 d DRCW= 65 d DRCW= 70 d DRCW= 75 d DRCW= 80 d DRCW= 85 d DRCW= 90 d DRCW= 95 d DRCW= 100 d DRCW= 105 d DRCW= 110 d

Total consumption rate [wh/m] Total labor productivity [wh/m]


5.00 5.25 5.50 5.75 6.00 6.25 6.50 6.75 7.00 7.25 7.50 7.75 8.00 8.25 8.50 0 1,000

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

Concrete quantity [m]

2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000


TWH= 10,000 TWH= 20,000 TWH= 30,000 TWH= 40,000 TWH= 50,000 wh wh wh wh wh TWH= 12,500 TWH= 22,500 TWH= 32,500 TWH= 42,500 TWH= 52,500 wh wh wh wh wh TWH= 15,000 TWH= 25,000 TWH= 35,000 TWH= 45,000 TWH= 55,000 wh wh wh wh wh TWH= 17,500 TWH= 27,500 TWH= 37,500 TWH= 47,500 TWH= 57,500 wh wh wh wh wh

III

91 d 107 d

5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000

IV
33,000 Std 38,500 Std

Christian HOFSTADLER

Source: Hofstadler

Palisade Risk Conference in London


Construction Management 22

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

Selection of distribution functions and input of individual values

WRCW

WTRCW

RCFW

FRBD

RCRW

RRBD

RCCW

QC

BUT,RCW

Calculation with @RISK Monte Carlo Method

TRCRCW

PRRCW,ML

DRCW

DRCW, BU Presenting the Results as Probability Distribution

Calculation of Cost of Production: Application of Monte Carlo Method

Analysis of Situation Objective

Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method

Application: High-Rise Building

Conclusion

Source: Hofstadler

Palisade Risk Conference in London


Construction Management 24

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

Selection of distribution functions and input of individual values

RCFW

FRBD

RCRW

RRBD

RCCW

cEM,FW

FRBD

cEM,RW

RRBD

cEM,CW

TRCRCW

WARCW

QC

cEM,RCW

QC

DCLC,RCW

DCEM,RCW

DCRCW

MUOHD

CPRCW

BURCW

CPRCW,BU

Application

Analysis of Situation Objective

Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method

Application: High-Rise Building

Conclusion

Source: Hofstadler

Palisade Risk Conference in London


Construction Management 26

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

High-Rise Building Project - Key Details


Sectional view
Analysis of Situation Objective

Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method

Application: High-Rise Building

Conclusion

Source: Hofstadler

Palisade Risk Conference in London


Construction Management 27

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

High-Rise Building Project - Key Details


Floor plan
Analysis of Situation Objective

Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method

Application: High-Rise Building

Conclusion

Source: Hofstadler

Palisade Risk Conference in London


Construction Management 28

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

High-Rise Building Project - Key Details Office building: quantity determination


Analysis of Situation Objective

Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method

Application: High-Rise Building

Conclusion

Components
1

Forming area
[m] 2 [%] 3

Reinforcement quantity
[t] 4 [%] 5

Concrete quantity
[m] 6 [%] 7 24.39 5.85 2.14 15.06 52.56 100

Ground plate Walls Columns Shafts Slabs

225 5,553 3,598 15,554 24,386 49,316

0.46 11.26 7.30 31.54 49.45 100

431 103 89 266 962 1,851

23.28 5.56 4.81 14.37 51.97 100

3,080 739 270 1,902 6,638 12,629

Source: Hofstadler

Palisade Risk Conference in London


Construction Management 29

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

High-Rise Building Project - Key Details Input values to calculate the construction time
Analysis of Situation Objective
Construction method Working time scheme Working time regulations Type of construction project Location of the construction project External

Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

Internal
General construction site conditions

Daily working time

Disruptive influences

Influences of the construction method

General operating conditions

Staff qualification

Labor productivity
Influences of the construction method

Production Rate

Practice

Composition of the working group

Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method


Specific structural conditions

General operating conditions

Number of workers

Familiarization
General construction site conditions

Specific structure conditions

Application: High-Rise Building

Availability Number of equipment

Work space

Construction method

Conclusion

MIN

EXP

MAX

Average labor consumption rate - formwork works Average formwork ratio for the entire building Average labor consumption rate - reinforcement works Average reinforcement ratio for the entire building Average labor consumption rate - concrete works Maximum number of workers Proportion of the average number of workers Daily working time Concrete Quanity Buffer
Source: Hofstadler

0.60 3.60 7.00 140.00 0.42 36.00 75.00 7.00 12,000 7.50

wh/m m/m wh/t kg/m wh/m wh/hr % hr/d m %

0.65 3.90 8.00 150.00 0.45 37.00 80.00 8.50 12,629 10.00

wh/m m/m wh/t kg/m wh/m wh/hr % hr/d m %

0.90 4.00 10.00 160.00 0.60 40.00 88.00 10.00 13,000 13.00

wh/m m/m wh/t kg/m wh/m wh/hr % hr/d m %

Palisade Risk Conference in London


Construction Management 30

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

Calculation of Construction Time: Calculation Mode 1


MIN EXP MAX

Analysis of Situation Objective

DRCW, BU
Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

QC RC A, FW WRCW WT RCW FRA, BD RC A, RW RRA, BD RC A,CW

BU T , RCW 100 %

Average labor consumption rate - formwork works Average formwork ratio for the entire building Average labor consumption rate - reinforcement works Average reinforcement ratio for the entire building Average labor consumption rate - concrete works Maximum number of workers Proportion of the average number of workers Daily working time Concrete Quanity Buffer

0.60 3.60 7.00 140.00 0.42 36.00 75.00 7.00 12,000 7.50

wh/m m/m wh/t kg/m wh/m wh/hr % hr/d m %

0.65 3.90 8.00 150.00 0.45 37.00 80.00 8.50 12,629 10.00

wh/m m/m wh/t kg/m wh/m wh/hr % hr/d m %

0.90 4.00 10.00 160.00 0.60 40.00 88.00 10.00 13,000 13.00

wh/m m/m wh/t kg/m wh/m wh/hr % hr/d m %

Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method

Application: High-Rise Building

Conclusion

DRCW, BU

12,629 m 37 wh / hr 0.8 8.5 hr / d 0.65 wh / m 3.9 m / m 8 wh / t 0.15 t / m 0.45 wh / m

10 % 100 %

231 d

Source: Hofstadler

Palisade Risk Conference in London


Construction Management 31

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

Calculation of Construction Time: Calculation Mode 1


QC RC A, FW WRCW WT RCW FRA, BD RC A, RW RRA, BD RC A,CW BU T , RCW 100 %

DRCW, BU
Analysis of Situation Objective

Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

Productivity [%]

Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method

Adequate Construction time

Application: High-Rise Building

100 %

Conclusion

No go

231d

Construction time [d]


Source: Hofstadler

Palisade Risk Conference in London


Construction Management 32

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

Calculation of Construction Time: Calculation Mode 3

Analysis of Situation Objective

The values from this table are used for the input variables to calculate total labour consumption rate, daily production rate and duration (weighted triangular distribution).

Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method

Application: High-Rise Building

MIN
Conclusion

EXP

MAX

Average labor consumption rate - formwork works Average formwork ratio for the entire building Average labor consumption rate - reinforcement works Average reinforcement ratio for the entire building Average labor consumption rate - concrete works Maximum number of workers Proportion of the average number of workers Daily working time Concrete Quanity Buffer
Source: Hofstadler

0.60 3.60 7.00 140.00 0.42 36.00 75.00 7.00 12,000 7.50

wh/m m/m wh/t kg/m wh/m wh/hr % hr/d m %

0.65 3.90 8.00 150.00 0.45 37.00 80.00 8.50 12,629 10.00

wh/m m/m wh/t kg/m wh/m wh/hr % hr/d m %

0.90 4.00 10.00 160.00 0.60 40.00 88.00 10.00 13,000 13.00

wh/m m/m wh/t kg/m wh/m wh/hr % hr/d m %

Palisade Risk Conference in London


Construction Management 33

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

Calculation of Construction Time: Calculation Mode 3

Analysis of Situation Objective

Monte-Carlo Simulation Results: Duration (incl. Buffer)

Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method

Application: High-Rise Building

Conclusion

5%

95 %

CT 1 = 202 d

Source: @RISK, Hofstadler

CT 2 = 286 d

Palisade Risk Conference in London


Construction Management 34

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

Change of Distribution Functions

Analysis of Situation Objective

Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

Isosceles Triangular Distribution

Weighted Triangular Distribution

Uniform Distribution

Beta Distribution

Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method

Application: High-Rise Building

Conclusion

Consequences

?
Source: Hofstadler

Palisade Risk Conference in London


Construction Management 35

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

Change of Distribution Functions

Analysis of Situation Objective

0.018
Simulation 1 Isosceles Triangular Distribution
Simulation 2 Weighted Triangular Distribution

Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

0.016

0.014
Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method
Simulation 3 Unif orm Distribution

0.012

Simulation 4 Beta Distribution

Application: High-Rise Building

0.010

Conclusion

0.008

0.006

0.004

0.002

0.000 150 200 250 300 350 400

Construction Time incl. Buffer [d]


Source: Hofstadler

Palisade Risk Conference in London


Construction Management 36

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

Productivity and Construction Time

Analysis of Situation Objective

Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

Productivity [%]

Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method

Adequate Construction time

Application: High-Rise Building

100 %

Conclusion

No go

Construction time [d]


Source: Hofstadler

Palisade Risk Conference in London


Construction Management 37

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

High-Rise Building Project - Key Details Input values to calculate the construction time
Analysis of Situation Objective
Construction method Working time scheme Working time regulations Type of construction project Location of the construction project External

Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

Internal
General construction site conditions

Daily working time

Disruptive influences

Influences of the construction method

General operating conditions

Staff qualification

Labor productivity
Influences of the construction method

Production Rate

Practice

Composition of the working group

Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method


Specific structural conditions

General operating conditions

Number of workers

Familiarization
General construction site conditions

Specific structure conditions

Application: High-Rise Building

Availability Number of equipment

Work space

Construction method

Conclusion

MIN

EXP

MAX

Equipment and materials costs - formwork Average formwork ratio for the entire building Equipment and materials costs - reinforcement Average reinforcement ratio for the entire building Equipment and materials costs - concrete Average wage Mark-up for overheads Buffer
Source: Hofstadler

5.00 /m 3.60 m/m 400.00 /t 140.00 kg/m 80.00 /m 27.00 /wh 10.00 % 5.00 %

6.00 /m 3.90 m/m 500.00 /t 150.00 kg/m 90.00 /m 30.00 /wh 14.00 % 10.00 %

8.00 /m 4.00 m/m 600.00 /t 160.00 kg/m 95.00 /m 31.00 /wh 17.00 % 15.00 %

Palisade Risk Conference in London


Construction Management 38

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

Calculation of the Cost of Production: Calculation Mode 1

MIN

EXP

MAX

Analysis of Situation Objective

Equipment and materials costs - formwork Average formwork ratio for the entire building Equipment and materials costs - reinforcement

5.00 /m 3.60 m/m 400.00 /t 140.00 kg/m 80.00 /m 27.00 /wh 10.00 % 5.00 %

6.00 /m 3.90 m/m 500.00 /t 150.00 kg/m 90.00 /m 30.00 /wh 14.00 % 10.00 %

8.00 /m 4.00 m/m 600.00 /t 160.00 kg/m 95.00 /m 31.00 /wh 17.00 % 15.00 %

CPRCW , BU
Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

QC

TCR A, RCW WA A, RCW

c A, EM , RCW

MU OHD 100 %

BU C , RCW 100 %

Average reinforcement ratio for the entire building Equipment and materials costs - concrete Average wage Mark-up for overheads Buffer

Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method

Application: High-Rise Building

Conclusion

CPRCW , BU

QC

TCR A, RCW WA A, RCW

c A, EM , RCW

MU OHD 100 %

BU C , RCW 100 %

Source: Hofstadler

Palisade Risk Conference in London


Construction Management 39

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

Calculation of the Cost of Production: Calculation Mode 1


MIN EXP MAX

Analysis of Situation Objective

CPRCW , BU

QC

TCR A, RCW WA A, RCW

c A, EM , RCW

MU OHD 1 100 %

BU C , RCW 100 %

Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

TCRA, RCW

RCA, FW FRA, BD RCA, RW RRA, BD RCA,CW

Average labor consumption rate - formwork works Average formwork ratio for the entire building Equipment and materials costs - formwork Average formwork labor consumption rate - reinforcement works Average ratio for the entire building Average reinforcement ratio for the entire building Equipment and materials costs - reinforcement Average labor consumption rate - concrete works Average reinforcement ratio for the entire building Maximum number of workers Equipment and materials costs - concrete Proportion of the average number of workers Average wagetime Daily working Mark-up for overheads Concrete Quanity Buffer

0.60 wh/m MIN 3.60 /m m/m 5.00 7.00 m/m wh/t 3.60 140.00 kg/m 400.00 /t 0.42 wh/m 140.00 kg/m 36.00 wh/hr 80.00 /m 75.00 % 27.00 7.00 /wh hr/d 10.00 % 12,000 m 5.00 7.50 % %

0.65 wh/m EXP 3.90 /m m/m 6.00 8.00 m/m wh/t 3.90 150.00 kg/m 500.00 /t 0.45 wh/m 150.00 kg/m 37.00 wh/hr 90.00 /m 80.00 % 30.00 8.50 /wh hr/d 14.00 % 12,629 m 10.00 10.00 % %

0.90 wh/m MAX 4.00 /m m/m 8.00 10.00 wh/t 4.00 m/m 160.00 kg/m 600.00 /t 0.60 wh/m 160.00 kg/m 40.00 wh/hr 95.00 /m 88.00 % 31.00 10.00 /wh hr/d 17.00 % 13,000 m 15.00 13.00 % %

Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method

Application: High-Rise Building

TCR A, RCW

0.65 wh / m 3.90 m / m 8.00 wh / t 0.15 t / m 0.45 wh / m 4.19 wh / m


MIN EXP MAX

Conclusion

Equipment and materials costs - formwork Average formwork ratio for the entire building Equipment and materials costs - reinforcement Average reinforcement ratio for the entire building Equipment and materials costs - concrete Average wage

5.00 /m 3.60 m/m 400.00 /t 140.00 kg/m 80.00 /m 27.00 /wh 10.00 % 5.00 %

6.00 /m 3.90 m/m 500.00 /t 150.00 kg/m 90.00 /m 30.00 /wh 14.00 % 10.00 %

8.00 /m 4.00 m/m 600.00 /t 160.00 kg/m 95.00 /m 31.00 /wh 17.00 % 15.00 %

c A, EM, RCW

c A, EM, FW FRA, BD c A, EM, RW RRA, BD c A, EM,CW

Mark-up for overheads Buffer

c A, EM, RCW

6.00 / m 3.90 m / m 500.00 / t 0.15 t / m 90.00 / m 188.40 / m


Palisade Risk Conference in London
Construction Management 40

Source: Hofstadler

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

Calculation of the Cost of Production: Calculation Mode 1

MIN

EXP

MAX

Analysis of Situation Objective

Equipment and materials costs - formwork Average formwork ratio for the entire building Equipment and materials costs - reinforcement

5.00 /m 3.60 m/m 400.00 /t 140.00 kg/m 80.00 /m 27.00 /wh 10.00 % 5.00 %

6.00 /m 3.90 m/m 500.00 /t 150.00 kg/m 90.00 /m 30.00 /wh 14.00 % 10.00 %

8.00 /m 4.00 m/m 600.00 /t 160.00 kg/m 95.00 /m 31.00 /wh 17.00 % 15.00 %

CPRCW , BU
Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

QC

TCR A, RCW WA A, RCW

c A, EM , RCW

MU OHD 100 %

BU C , RCW 100 %

Average reinforcement ratio for the entire building Equipment and materials costs - concrete Average wage Mark-up for overheads Buffer

Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method

Application: High-Rise Building

Conclusion

CPRCW , BU

12,629 m

4.19 wh / m 30 / wh 188.40 / m

14 % 100 %

10 % 100 %

4,974,328

Source: Hofstadler

Palisade Risk Conference in London


Construction Management 41

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

Calculation of the Cost of Production: Calculation Mode 3

Analysis of Situation Objective

The values from this table are used for the input variables to calculate cost of production (weighted triangular distribution).

Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method

Application: High-Rise Building

Conclusion

MIN

EXP

MAX

Equipment and materials costs - formwork Average formwork ratio for the entire building Equipment and materials costs - reinforcement Average reinforcement ratio for the entire building Equipment and materials costs - concrete Average wage Mark-up for overheads Buffer
Source: Hofstadler

5.00 /m 3.60 m/m 400.00 /t 140.00 kg/m 80.00 /m 27.00 /wh 10.00 % 5.00 %

6.00 /m 3.90 m/m 500.00 /t 150.00 kg/m 90.00 /m 30.00 /wh 14.00 % 10.00 %

8.00 /m 4.00 m/m 600.00 /t 160.00 kg/m 95.00 /m 31.00 /wh 17.00 % 15.00 %

Palisade Risk Conference in London


Construction Management 42

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

Calculation of the Cost of Production: Calculation Mode 3

Analysis of Situation Objective

Monte-Carlo Simulation Results: Costs (incl. Buffer)

Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method

Application: High-Rise Building

Conclusion

5%

95 %

Source: @RISK, Hofstadler

CP 1 = 4,64

CP 2 = 5,40

Palisade Risk Conference in London


Construction Management 43

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

Change of Distribution Functions

Analysis of Situation Objective

Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

Isosceles Triangular Distribution

Weighted Triangular Distribution

Uniform Distribution

Beta Distribution

Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method

Application: High-Rise Building

Conclusion

Consequences

?
Source: Hofstadler

Palisade Risk Conference in London


Construction Management 44

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

Change of Distribution Functions

Analysis of Situation Objective

0.0000020 0.0000018 0.0000016


Simulation 1 Isosceles Triangular Distribution Simulation 2 Weighted Triangular Distribution
Simulation 3 Unif orm Distribution

Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method

0.0000014 0.0000012 0.0000010

Simulation 4 Beta Distribution

Application: High-Rise Building

Conclusion

0.0000008 0.0000006 0.0000004 0.0000002 0.0000000 4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

5,500,000

6,000,000

6,500,000

Cost of Production incl. Buffer []


Source: Hofstadler

Palisade Risk Conference in London


Construction Management 45

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

Construction Time and Construction Costs


Productivity [%]

Analysis of Situation Objective

Adequate Construction time

Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

100 %

No go

Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method

Application: High-Rise Building

Conclusion

Construction time [d]

The specification of a reasonable construction time makes a substantial contribution towards the economical use of elementary and discretionary production factors, or at least creates the preconditions to do so. Workers, equipment and materials can be used cost-efficiently. A realistic construction time can be calculated once construction management boundary conditions have been considered.

Source: Hofstadler

Palisade Risk Conference in London


Construction Management 46

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

Many Thanks!

Analysis of Situation Objective

Calculation Mode 1: Deterministic Approach

Calculation Mode 3: Monte Carlo Method

Application: High-Rise Building

Conclusion

Source: Hofstadler

Palisade Risk Conference in London


Construction Management 47

ChristianHOFSTADLER2010

Vous aimerez peut-être aussi