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WATER CRISIS
Dr. Umit Sahin
Co-Spokesperson, Green Party of Turkey
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Global Warming Status
by James Hansen
1. Tipping Level
- Climate forcing (greenhouse gas amount)
reaches a point such that no additional
forcing is required for large climate
change and impacts
2. Point of No Return
- Climate system reaches a point with
unstoppable irreversible climate impacts
(irreversible on a practical time scale)
Example: disintegration of large ice sheet
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Greenland
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Greenland
Melt descending
into a moulin,
a vertical shaft
carrying water
to ice sheet base.
2005
2.50E+07
1998
2002 2007
1987 1991
1995
2.00E+07
1.50E+07
1983
1.00E+07 1996
1996
1992
5.00E+06
1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
Year
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Konrad Steffen and Russell Huff, CIRES, University of Colorado at Boulder
Rongbuk Glacier
0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5
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WINTER SUMMER
+2 C +2-3 C
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(IPCC, 1991 and 1996)
2030 Projections for Turkey
RAINFALL DECREASE!
WINTER SUMMER
+%0-10 –%5-15
• Industrialization (medium)
• Fossil fuel dependency (high)
– 75% of energy, 91% of transport
• Population (17. in the world –
70.000.000)
• Size of economy (19. in the world –
363,300,000 USD)
• High energy intensity (3,8 – two times
OECD avarage, three times Germany)
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TURKEY’S CONTRIBUTION TO GLOBAL WARMING
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CO2 - TOP 25 (2004)
1. ABD %23,6 13. Đspanya %1,4
(AB %15,3) 14. Meksika %1,4
2. Çin %13,8 15. Ukrayna %1,3
3. Rusya %6,7 16. Polonya %1,3
4. Japonya %4,5 17. Đran %1,3
5. Hindistan %4,3 18. Güney Afrika %1,2
6. Almanya %3,4
19. Suudi Arabistan %1,0
7. Kanada %2,5
20. Brezilya %1,0
8. Britanya %2,2
9. Đtalya %1,9 21. Endonezya %1,0
10. Fransa %1,9 22. Türkiye %1,0
11. Avustralya %1,8 23. Tayland %08
12. Güney Kore %1,5 24. Hollanda %0,7
25. Cezayir %0,5 44
Turkey’s share increasing fast
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• 1990-2004 72,6%
• 1990-2005 84%
• 1990-2006 95%
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Turkey’s CO2 emissions -
COAL, NATURAL GAS AND OIL
• 2006
– Coal 101,7 million tonnes
– Natural gas 60,5 million tonnes
– Oil 77,3 million tonnes
• 1990 - 2006 increase
– Coal 75,8%
– Natural gas 826,3%
– Oil 23,7%
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Turkey’s CO2 emissions and energy
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After 2012 business as usual scenario
• 2012 -- 6 tonnes
JAMES HANSEN 50
GREEN ENERGY POLICY
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Kyoto Protocol
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