Deterministic Performance Estimation

Deterministic Performance Estimation
Prof. dr. K.J. Roodbergen Prof. dr. I.F.A. Vis Prof. dr. M.B.M. de Koster
Contents
Learning objectives .................................................................................... 2 Flow diagram .............................................................................................. 3 Incorporating data into a flow diagram ........................................................... 3 Other tools ....................................................................................................... 4 Exercises .......................................................................................................... 5 3 Throughput times ....................................................................................... 6 Throughput times with multiple paths............................................................. 6 Throughput time estimates for different types of products in one system ...... 7 Difference between actual and estimated throughput times............................ 8 Exercises .......................................................................................................... 9 4 Design and effective capacity .................................................................. 10 Sufficiency of design capacity ...................................................................... 10 Effective capacity .......................................................................................... 11 Exercises ........................................................................................................ 11 5 Bottleneck ................................................................................................. 13 Exercises ........................................................................................................ 14 6 Departure rate .......................................................................................... 16 7 Utilisation and efficiency ......................................................................... 18 Utilisation rate for n identical parallel machines........................................... 18 Difficulties in calculating utilisation rates..................................................... 19 Productive utilisation rate.............................................................................. 20 Relation between utilisation rate and throughput time.................................. 20 Exercises ........................................................................................................ 21 8 Work-in-progress ..................................................................................... 23 Exercises ........................................................................................................ 23 9 Solving bottleneck problems ................................................................... 25 Exercises ........................................................................................................ 26 10 Large exercises ...................................................................................... 27 Answers to exercises ....................................................................................... 30 Flow diagrams ............................................................................................... 30 Throughput times .......................................................................................... 31 Design and Effective Capacity ...................................................................... 31 Bottlenecks .................................................................................................... 32 Departure rate ................................................................................................ 33 Utilisation and efficiency .............................................................................. 33 Work-in-Progress .......................................................................................... 34 Solving bottleneck problems ......................................................................... 34 Large exercises .............................................................................................. 34 1 2
Learning objectives
The learning objectives related to this subject are: You must be able to draw a flow diagram for a given situation description. For any given description of a production/service facility, using the assumption that all values are deterministic, you must be able to determine the following performance criteria: - throughput time, - design capacity - location and maximum design capacity of the bottleneck, - throughput (= departure rate), - (productive) utilisation - work-in-progress, You must understand the following concepts and be able to estimate the effects of these concepts on the mentioned performance criteria: - varying arrival rates and operating times, - impact of stochasticity on various performance criteria, - bottleneck processes, - product batching and machine setup times (or switchover times), - using serial and parallel production machines/servers, - using additional machines/servers. You must be able to calculate the minimum batch size for a process such that a given process will not be a bottleneck.
Flow diagram
Flow diagrams (see also Heizer and Render, Chapter 7) illustrate the movement of materials, information or people through all processes required to transform resources into products or services. Here we will just introduce a very rudimentary approach, using only square blocks and arrows. Actually, there exists a formal guideline for making such drawings, which we will ignore here. Our main purpose is to show how you can transform a certain amount of information into a structured drawing. Blocks will be used to represent a production or service process. With arrows you can indicate the direction of flow from one activity to another (e.g. transport of products or walking of customers). Flow diagrams can be used to analyse and record activities in an objective and structured way. For example, a manager might use a flow diagram to determine the time that passes between the moment the customer/product is taken into production and the moment the customer/product is ready (i.e. throughput time). In the next sections, we will discuss several quantitative performance measures, which can be used to analyse activities with flow diagrams. Example 2.1 presents a flow diagram, illustrating the production process of a CD.
Example 2.1
Empty CDs arrive in the production system. In this production system a CD will be automatically wrapped in a box. The CD will be transported to the labelling machine and thereafter a label will be attached to the box. Next, the CD will be transported to a checking point where the quality of the wrapping will be checked. It is decided if the product can be transported to the warehouse or should be transported to an employee to be unwrapped and wrapped and labelled again. Thereafter the CD will also be transported to the warehouse. The related flow diagram is given in Figure 1 .
Figure 1: Flow diagram related to example 2.1

CD wrapping labeling checking
warehouse
unwrapping
wrapping and labeling
Incorporating data into a flow diagram To study the performance of the production system we need to use quantitative data related to the various production processes. We can incorporate interarrival times, arrival rates, production times, travel times or storage times into a flow diagram. The interarrival time can be defined as the time between two subsequent arrivals of products at their entrance in the process. The arrival rate indicates
the number of products that arrive per time unit (e.g. number of products that arrive per hour). The interarrival time can be translated into the arrival rate. For example, if the average interarrival rate is 10 minutes than 6 products will arrive per hour. Clearly, the arrival rate thus equals 6 products per hour. Both deterministic and stochastic values can be used to indicate production, travel and storage times. Deterministic values are constant and do not react to changes in the system. Stochastic values change over time and are usually expressed in terms of a probability distribution. For example, the time required for a certain production process follows a normal distribution with a mean of 6 minutes and a standard deviation of 30 seconds. Example 2.2 illustrates the drawing of a flow diagram with data. Example 2.2
Every 10 minutes an empty CD arrives in the production system. In this production system a CD will automatically be wrapped in a box in 660 seconds. The CD will be transported to the labelling machine in 1 minute and thereafter a label will be attached to the box. The time to attach a label follows a normal distribution with a mean of 6 minutes and a standard deviation of 1 minute. Next, the CD will be transported to a checking point in 1 minute where the quality of the wrapping is checked in 2 minutes. On average 90% of the CDs can be directly transported to the warehouse in 5 minutes. The remaining CDs are transported in 1 minute to an employee to be unwrapped in 2 minutes. Next, the CD needs to be packed and labelled again by an employee. The time to wrap and label again follows a normal distribution with a mean of 8 minutes and a standard deviation of 2 minutes. Thereafter, the CD will be transported in 5 minutes to the warehouse. The related flow diagram with important data is given in Figure 2.
5 min.
warehouse
5 min.
90%
CD
packing
660 sec.
labeling
Normal (6,1) min
Quality check
2 min.
10% One CD arrives every 10 minutes 1 min. 1 min. 1 min.
unpacking
2 min. 1 min.
Pack+label
Normal(8,2) min
Other tools Except for flow diagrams, the following tools exist to illustrate the movement of people or products through a system (see also Heizer and Render, Chapter 7). Namely, time-function mapping: flow diagram in which the time is added on a horizontal axis process charts: analysing the movement of people or material by using symbols, time and distance Service blueprinting: used to focus on the customer and the interaction with the customer
Exercises Exercise 2.1

Consider economy passengers at an airport. Every minute a new passenger arrives. A passenger walks in approximately 4 minutes to the 3 check-in counters. The passengers are waiting in a single line for the counters. The time to check in follows a normal distribution with a mean of 12 minutes and a standard deviation of 4 minutes. After the check-in procedure the passengers go, with a travel time of 2 minutes, to the customs. The time required at the customs equals 5 minutes. There is one customs officer. Thereafter, the passengers walk with luggage trolleys to their gates in 10 minutes. Draw a flow diagram to indicate the movement of the passengers. Incorporate all available data.
Exercise 2.2
Consider the production process, where 12 products arrive per hour. Products are randomly assigned to process 1a or 1b. From multiple observations it is known that on average 60% of the products is assigned to process 1a and 40% to process 1b. One operator is available at process 1a. The operation time for process 1a follows a normal distribution with a mean of 3 minutes and a standard deviation of 1/2 minute. Conveyor A, capable of transporting a large number of products simultaneously, transports a product in 9 minutes to process 2. Also one operator is available for process 1b. The operation time for process 1b takes exactly 6 minutes. Conveyor B, capable of transporting a large number of products simultaneously, transports a product in 5 minutes to process 2. 4 operators are working in parallel at process 2. The operation time per product equals exactly 30 minutes. Thereafter, product A leaves the system. Draw a flow diagram to indicate the movement of the products. Incorporate all available data.
Exercise 2.3
From 9.00 am to 5.00 pm one customer arrives every 2 minutes. 60% of the customers need to withdraw money from one automated teller machine. The time to withdraw money follows a normal distribution with a mean of 2 minutes and a standard deviation of 30 seconds. 50% of these customers want a receipt. It takes another 45 seconds to wait for the receipt to be printed. After receiving the money and, if applicable, a receipt the customers leave the bank. The second type of customers (30%) are customers that want to be helped by one clerk to withdraw and/or deposit Euros. 45% need to withdraw Euros, 35% need to deposit Euros and 20% want both. The time to withdraw Euros takes on average 4 minutes and the time to deposit takes on average 5 minutes. After receiving the money the customer leaves the bank. The third type of customers wants to withdraw or deposit foreign money. There is another counter with one clerk where these types of customers are helped. The time to order foreign money takes 30 seconds. Thereafter, the customer and the employee need to wait for 1 minute until the time-lock of the safe is opened. Thereafter, the employee counts the foreign money and prepares a receipt for the customer. The time to perform these two actions follows a normal distribution with a mean of 2 minutes and a standard deviation of 15 seconds. Thereafter, the customer leaves the bank. Draw a flow diagram to indicate the movement of the customers. Incorporate all available data.
Throughput times
The throughput time (also called manufacturing cycle time, see Heizer and Render, Chapter 16) can be defined as the time that passes between the moment at which the product/customer enters the system and the moment at which the product/customer is ready. For example, the time required for a patient from entering the emergency room of a hospital until being treated and having left the hospital. We can estimate deterministic throughput times by simply adding up the expected processing times of the different processes. In estimating the deterministic throughput time we ignore any stochastic effects, such as probability distributions for processing times and just use the average value (also called mean or expected value). Furthermore, we ignore waiting line effects. The calculated throughput time is, therefore lower than or equal to the actual throughput time.
Example 3.1
Every 5 minutes a product arrives to be processed. The time required at machine 1 equals exactly 4 minutes. With a conveyor, the product will be transported to process 2 in 10 minutes. The time required at process 2 follows a normal distribution with a mean of 3 minutes and a standard deviation of 1 minute. Thereafter, the product leaves the system. This production process is illustrated in Figure 3.
Figure 3 Flow diagram related to example 3.1
In
Process 1
Process 2
Out
Transport (on conveyor) Interarrival time Time required: requires Exactly 4 on average 10 5 minutes minutes minutes
Time required: Normal (3,1) minutes
We calculate the throughput time by just adding up the various average processing times. Thus, the throughput time equals 4 + 10 + 3 = 17 minutes. Note, that you should not include the interarrival time in your calculations, because until a product has arrived, it is not yet in the system, which we intend to measure.
Throughput times with multiple paths At the start of the system it might be uncertain which path will be followed by the product or customer through the various processes in the system. For example, the CD in the production system of Figure 1 may or may not need to be unwrapped and rewrapped before being transported to the warehouse. For path the probability is given that products/customers will follow this specific path. In estimating throughput times you need to use these probabilities. Follow the next steps in calculating throughput times with multiple paths: 1. Estimate the throughput time for one of the possible paths in the production process 2. Multiply the resulting throughput time with the probability that this path will be followed by a product/customer 3. Repeat steps 1 and 2 until all paths have been handled. 4. Estimate the throughput time by adding up the results of step 2 for all paths.
Example 3.2
We calculate the throughput time for the production system with multiple paths as illustrated in Figure 4.
Process 1a 80% Time required: Exactly 4 minutes
Figure 4: Production system with multiple paths
In
Interarrival time 5 minutes Process 1b 20% Time required: Exactly 6 minutes
Transport (on conveyor) requires on average 10 minutes
Process 2 Time required: Normal (3,1) minutes
Out
Path 1: takes 4+10 + 3 minutes = 17 minutes Path 2: takes 6 + 10 + 3 minutes = 19 minutes Throughput time: 0.8*17 + 0.2 * 19 = 17.4 minutes
Throughput time estimates for different types of products in one system If different types of products/customers follow processes in the same production/service system, you might be asked to estimate a throughput time for each type of product/customer. Example 3.3
Both DVDs and CDs are handled in the same system. DVDs are wrapped in production process 1a, whereas CDs are wrapped at production process 1b. Both CDs and DVDs are transported by conveyor to production process 2 where they are labelled. All important data are illustrated in the flow diagram in Figure 5.
Process 1a DVD
Figure 5: Production system related to example 3.3
Time required: Exactly 4 minutes
In
Interarrival time 5 minutes CD Process 1b Time required: Exactly 6 minutes
Transport (on conveyor) requires on average 10 minutes
Process 2 Time required: Normal (3,1) minutes
Out
The throughput time for a DVD equals 4 + 10 + 3 = 17 minutes. The throughput time for a CD equals 6 + 10 + 3 = 19 minutes.
Difference between actual and estimated throughput times It is important to realise that there may be a large difference between a deterministic estimate of a throughput time and the actual throughput time. This has mainly to do with the fact that we have excluded the effect of waiting lines (also called buffers) on the throughput time. So let us momentarily put aside our assumption that all processing times are deterministic. We will use a triangle (upside down) to depict a waiting line. Consider the following example. Example 3.4
Consider the production system depicted in Figure 6. Products arrive at this process at a rate of 7 product per hour (Poisson distributed). First, give a deterministic estimate of the throughput time. Then determine the average time products spend in the buffer before process 1.
In
Process 1
1 machine Time required per product On average 7.5 min. Neg. exponentially distributed
Process 3
3 parallel operators Time required per product Normal (23,4) minutes
Out
Process 3
2 parallel operators Time required per product on average 14 min.
A deterministic estimate for throughput time means we ignore any waiting line effects (as we did before), so: 7.5+23+14 = 44.5 minutes The time product spend in the waiting line can be estimated with an M/M/1 waiting line model (see e.g. Heizer and Render, Module D). = 7 products/hour and = 60/7.5 = 8 products per hour. Then the time in the waiting line can be calculated as:
Wq =
= 7/8=0.875 hours = 52.5 minutes ( )
Example 3.4 clearly shows that the deterministic estimate of 44.5 minutes underestimates the true throughput time significantly: already in the first buffer products spend 52.5 minutes, so real throughput time is at least 97 minutes. In general, a deterministic estimate of throughput time will always underestimate true throughput time (i.e. the deterministic estimate is always lower than the true throughput time). Deterministic throughput time estimates are useful though for mutual comparisons, and simple because they provide information that is very simple to obtain. Information on buffers, is generally much more difficult to obtain. In example 3.4 we had the luxury of meeting the exact requirements of an M/M/1 waiting line model for the first buffer, however, it is far from straightforward to estimate the time products spend in the buffer before process 2 (an M/G/S model may be helpful, but that is outside the scope of this course). And it is even more problematic to estimate the time in the third buffer, because we do not even know the distribution function for process 3.
In practice, simulation is often used to be able to estimate performance criteria for complex systems, including the effect of waiting lines (sse Heizer and render, Module F). Exercises Exercise 3.1
Give a deterministic estimate for the throughput time (in minutes) of an economy passenger for the situation as described in Exercise 2.1.
Exercise 3.2
Give a deterministic estimate for the throughput time (in minutes) of a product for the situation as described in Exercise 2.2.
Exercise 3.3
Give a deterministic estimate for the throughput time (in minutes) for each of the three types of customers (withdraw money at automated machine, withdraw/deposit Euros at clerk and withdraw/deposit foreign money) for the situation as described in Exercise 2.3.
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Design and effective capacity

Capacity refers to the upper limit a process can handle. The goal of capacity planning is to match supply and demand. There might be a gap between achieved capacity and desired capacity. Overcapacity results in non-working machines and employees and high operational costs. On the other hand, undercapacity might result in loss of customers and strained machines and staff. Also refer to Supplement 7 of Heizer and Render. The design capacity of a production/service process indicates the theoretical maximum output of the process in a given period of time. The design capacity will be calculated for a process in an ideal situation. Thus, without waiting times and by using deterministic processing times. In production processes, design capacity is usually expressed in the number of units that can be produced. In service processes capacity can be measured in varying terms such as number of beds, number of patients treated and number of meals served. To calculate the design capacity of a process in a given time period one can follow the following steps: 1. determine the deterministic processing time of the process 2. translate the processing time into a production rate, which indicates the number of units produced per time unit. If there are multiple operators/machines working in parallel at a process you need to multiply the production rate of a single operator with the number of operators/machines to obtain the total production rate of that process. (Note: use the same time unit in all steps)
Example 4.1
Consider a production process where the process time follows a normal distribution with a mean of 3 minutes and a standard deviation of 1 minute. Determine the maximum number of products that can be handled within 24 hours at this production process 2. 1. 2. 3. deterministic processing time = 3 minutes production rate = 60/3 = 20 products per hour design capacity per 24 hours = 24 * 20 = 480 products
What will be the design capacity if there are two operators in parallel working at this process? 1. deterministic processing time = 3 minutes 2. production rate = 60/3 = 20 products per hour; 2 operators in parallel results in a total production rate of 40 products per hour 3. design capacity per 24 hours = 24 * 40 = 960 products per 24 hours.
Sufficiency of design capacity For each process in a system we can determine the design capacity. An important question for managers is if the design capacity of a process is (theoretically) sufficient to handle the expected number of products that need to be handled at that process. To answer this question, we need to compare the number of arriving products at the process with its design capacity. Follow the next steps to determine whether the design capacity is sufficient for a process:
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1. calculate the design capacity for the process 2. calculate the expected number of products arriving at that process (Note: if products follow different paths, you need to take the related percentage into account when calculating arrival rates for a process) 3. compare the answers to steps 1 and 2. Example 4.2
Examine the production system with multiple paths in Figure 4. Is the design capacity of process 1a sufficient? Step 1: Design capacity of process 1a: 60/4 = 15 products per hour Step 2: Every 5 minutes a product arrives: 60/5 = 12 products per hour. 80% follows process 1a: 9.6 products per hour. Step 3: Design capacity of process 1a: 9.6 products arrive per hour, while the machine can handle 15 products per hour: sufficient
Effective capacity The effective capacity is the capacity that can be expected given the current constraints. The difference between effective and design capacity may be caused by, for example, the fact that a process was designed for a (slightly) different product or has a known machine failure which impacts the performance of the process. By subtracting such known productivity loss from the calculated design capacity, we obtain the effective capacity. Example 4.3
Consider a machine for which it is known that it is in repair for 10% of the time. The machines design capacity is 150 products per hour. What is the effective capacity? Effective capacity = 0.9 * 150 = 135 products per hour
Example 4.4
Consider a machine for which the following information is available. The machines design capacity is 300 products per hour. However, due to the machines age, it is necessary to adjust its settings after every 130 products. This adjustment requires 5 minutes. What is the effective capacity of this machine? During the adjustment, theoretically, 5/60*300 = 25 products could have been made. So after making 130 products we miss production of 25 products. Thus, we make only 130 products out of a theoretical amount of 155 products. The effective capacity is, therefore, 130/155 * 300 = 251.6 products per hour.
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Determine the design capacity per hour of the processes check-in and customs at the airport (expressed in number of economy passengers of the airport) as described in Exercise 2.1.
Exercise 4.2
Consider a gas station at which customers arrive by car between 9am and 9pm. There are three types of customers, namely Euro 95, Diesel and LPG customers. 70% of the customers want Euro 95, 20% want diesel and the rest want LPG. Every 0.75 minutes a customer arrives. 3 fuel pumps contain both Euro 95 and diesel. Customers are waiting in one line for these 3 fuel pumps. A fourth fuel pomp only contains LPG. Filling up a car follows a normal distribution with a mean of 2 minutes and a standard deviation of 20 seconds irrespective of the type of fuel. After filling up, the customer walks in 30 seconds to the shop. All customers need to pay at one counter. 80% of the customers pay electronically, which takes 45 seconds. The rest of the customers pay cash in 30 seconds. Thereafter, they walk back to their cars in 30 seconds and leave by car the fuel pomp. After a customer has left, the next customer can start filling up. a. During opening hours, how many customers can theoretically be handled by the Euro 95/Diesel pumps, how many customers can theoretically be helped by the LPG pomp and how many customers can theoretically be helped by the counter? b. Can you say anything about the number of customers that can be served by the system as a whole? (if not, return to this question after you have read sections 6 and 7).
Exercise 4.3
Determine if the design capacity of the automated teller machine, the Euro clerk and the foreign money clerk are, each individually, sufficient to handle the arriving customers at the bank as described in Exercise 2.3.
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Bottleneck
The bottleneck of a system limits the output of the production/server system. Thus, the bottleneck is the slowest process in the system and has less design capacity than the prior and following processes. If none of the processes in the system is the bottleneck, then we say that the arrival process is the bottleneck. To determine the bottleneck in a system with a single path, you can follow the next steps: 1. Calculate the design capacity of each process 2. Calculate the expected number of products arriving at the system 3. a. if the design capacity of all processes is sufficient you can conclude that the bottleneck of the system is the arrival process b. if one or more processes have insufficient design capacity, select the process with the smallest design capacity. Then, this process forms the bottleneck in the system
To determine the bottleneck in a system with multiple paths, you can follow the next steps: 1. Calculate the design capacity of each process, 2. Calculate for each process the expected number of products arriving at that process, 3. a. if the design capacity of all processes is sufficient, you can conclude that the bottleneck of the system is the arrival process b. Check for each path if one or multiple processes on that path have insufficient design capacity; select the process with the smallest design capacity. Then, this process forms the bottleneck of this path.
Example 5.1
Examine the production system in Figure 7. Every 4 minutes a product arrives at the production system. Process 1 only starts processing products if three products have arrived at the process (batch size = 3). The time to collect these three products before the processing can start equals 5 minutes (setup time). The time per product in the batch equals 5 minutes. Thereafter, products are transported on a conveyor to production process 2. Two operators are working in parallel at this process. The time to handle a single product equals 10 minutes. Thereafter, the product leaves the system. Which of the processes is the bottleneck in the system?
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In
Process 1
Transport (on conveyor) Interarrival Time per Time required: requires individual 5 minutes on average 10 product per product minutes Batch size: 3 4 minutes Setup time per batch: 5 minutes
Process 2 2 operators in parallel Time required: Exactly 10 minutes
Out
System with a single path: Step 1 Calculate design capacity: Design capacity of process 1: processing time per batch = 3*5 + 5 = 20 minutes 60/20 = 3 batches per hour = 9 products per hour Design capacity of process 2: 60/10 * 2 operators = 12 products per hour Step 2 Calculate arrival rate Arrival rate: 60/4=15 products per hour Step 3: Check sufficiency Both the design capacity of process 1 and 2 are insufficient. process 1 has smallest capacity: bottleneck

Consider the system depicted in Figure 8:. Which of the processes in the system is the bottleneck?
Figure 8: Flow diagram related to exercise 5.1
Interarrival time (of individual products): 7 minutes Process 1
Tranport (on conveyor) requires 5 minutes Process 2
Out
Time required: 4 minutes per product Batch size: 2 Setup time per batch: 5 minutes
Time required: 5 minutes per product Batch size: 4 Setup time per batch: 9 minutes
Exercise 5.2
Consider the system depicted in Figure 9:. Which of the processes in the system is the bottleneck?
Interarrival time 5 minutes
Figure 9: Flow diagram related to exercise 5.2
Process 1 3 parallel operators Time required per product: Normal(17, ) minutes
Process 2 1 machine
Process 3 2 parallel operators
Out
Time required: exactly 3 minutes
Time required per product: exactly 12 minutes
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Exercise 5.3
Consider a bank during opening hours with three types of customers. Each two minutes a customer arrives from 9.00 am to 5.00 pm. 60% of the customers need to withdraw money from one automated teller machine. The time to withdraw money follows a normal distribution with a mean of 2 minutes and a standard deviation of 30 seconds. 50% of these customers want a receipt. It takes another 45 seconds to wait for the receipt to be printed. After receiving the money and, if applicable, a receipt the customers leave the bank. The second type of customers (30%) are customers that want to be helped by one clerk to withdraw and/or deposit Euros. 45% need to withdraw Euros, 35% need to deposit Euros and 20% want both. The time to withdraw Euros takes on average 4 minutes and the time to deposit takes on average 5 minutes. After receiving the money the customer leaves the bank. The third type of customers wants to withdraw or deposit foreign money. There is another counter with one clerk where these types of customers are helped. The time to order foreign money takes 30 seconds. Thereafter, the customer and the employee need to wait for 1 minute until the time-lock of the safe is opened. Thereafter, the employee counts the foreign money and prepares a receipt for the customer. The time to perform these two actions follows a normal distribution with a mean of 2 minutes and a standard deviation of 15 seconds. Thereafter, the customer leaves the bank. Which of the processes in the system is a bottleneck?
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Departure rate
The departure rate (i.e. throughput) of a system indicates the number of products/customers that leave the system per time unit. Clearly, the departure rate is determined by the output of the bottleneck in the system. As a result, the value of the departure rate only equals the value of the arrival rate if the arrival process is the bottleneck in the system.
Example 6.1
Examine the production system in Figure 7. a. What are the arrival and departure rates of the system per hour? The departure rate of this production system is determined by the output of process 1 (see example 5.1). Thus, the departure rate equals the output of process 1 per hour. The departure rate is 9 products per hour and the arrival rate is 15 products per hour. b. A new automated machine has been purchased for process 1 and its processing time is exactly 3 minutes per product. Products will not be batched anymore but be treated individually. What will be the new departure rate? Design capacity of process 1 is 60/3 = 20 products per hour Process 2 forms bottleneck of the system. Departure rate = 12 products per hour c. The management decides that a third operator will be used at process 2. What will be the new departure rate? Design capacity of process 2: 60/10 *3 = 18 products per hour Design capacity of process 1 is still 20 products per hour Arrival rate is 15 products per hour Arrival process forms bottleneck of the system. Arrival rate = departure rate = 15 products per hour.

Interarrival time: 4 minutes
Out
Process 1 1operator Required time Normal(3 , ) minutes Proces 1 machine Proces (2 operators parallel)
Required time: Exactly 6 minutes
Required time per product: Exactly 10 minutes
Consider the production process above. What is the expected departure rate per hour?
Exercise 6.2
Consider an airport during lunch time (12.00-13.00). There are two types of passengers, namely business class (20%) and economy class (80%) passengers. Each minute a new passenger arrives. A passenger walks in approximately 4 minutes to the check-in counter. Economy class passengers are waiting in one line for the counters. 3 of the 5 counters are open during lunch time. The time to check in follows a normal distribution with a mean of 12 minutes and a standard deviation of 4 minutes. At one of the counters new employees are trained during lunch time. As a result, the check-in time of this specific counter is on average 2 times as high as at the other counters. For business class passengers there is one counter open
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during lunch time with higher skilled staff. The check-in time follows a normal distribution with a mean of 10 minutes and a standard deviation of 2 minutes. After the check-in procedure both types of passengers go, with a travel time of 2 minutes, to the customs. The time required at the customs equals 5 minutes. There are separate counters for business and economy passengers. Economy class passengers walk with luggage trolleys to their gates. Business class passengers are transferred with a vehicle. Each vehicle has a capacity of 1 passenger. The total time for a vehicle to travel with a passenger to a gate and to return empty to the customs equals on average 13 minutes. Calculate the total number of business class passengers, which need a vehicle during lunch time.
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Utilisation and efficiency

Utilisation can be defined as the fraction of total time in which a machine/service-unit is used for production/service. More mathematically, we define the utilisation rate for a single machine/operator as: total time in operation utilisation rate of a single machine/operator = total time or equivalantly as: utilisation rate of a single machine/operator = actual output design capacity (7.1)
For example, consider an operator, who is busy for 70% of its time and idle for 30% of its time. The utilisation rate of this operator is 0.7.
Example 7.1
Consider a production process where every 5 minutes a product arrives. The production time is 4 minutes per product. The utilisation rate can be calculated according to the two options in equation (7.1). Thus, utilisation rate = 4/5 = 0.8 or arrival rate = 12 products per hour; production rate = 15 products per hour; utilisation = 12/15 = 0.8
In equation (7.1) we divide the total time in operation by the total time. It is important to define these terms properly. In calculating operating time, we need to include setup times of machines (e.g. time required to switch between two colours).
Efficiency We defined utilisation as actual output divided by design capacity. It is, however, often already known in advance that there are certain additional constraints, such as planned lunch breaks and machine failures. These constraints limit the utilisation. To take these factors explicitly into consideration, we define efficiency. Efficiency is a measure for the achieved output compared to the effective capacity. If there are no additional constraints, then efficiency equals utilisation (because then effective capacity equals design capacity). Example 7.2
Consider a machine, which is busy for 70% of its time and idle for 20% of its time. The machine is in repair for 10% of the time. The utilisation of this machine is 0.7 The efficiency of this machine is: 0.7 / (0.7 + 0.2) = 0.778
Utilisation rate for n identical parallel machines We can also calculate the utilisation rate for several machines/operators working in parallel at the same process. In this case, the utilisation rate depends on the number of products that arrive at the process (arrival rate) and the
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number of units handled per machine/operator (production rate). The utilisation rate for a process consisting of n identical machines/operators can be expressed as follows:
, n
(7.2)
where as = arrival rate and = production rate per machine/operator. Note: use the same time-unit for and .
Example 7.3
Consider an airport with three check-in counters. 20 passengers arrive per hour at these counters. Each employee can serve up to 9 passengers per hour. The utilisation rate of the check-in counter equals: 20 = = = 0.74 n 3 * 9
Difficulties in calculating utilisation rates Make sure that you read carefully whether the arrival rate or interarrival time (similarly: production time versus production rate) has been given. Never combine an arrival rate with a production time or an interarrival time with a production rate in calculating utilisation rates. Example 7.4
Process 1
arrival rate: 15 products per hour production rate: 20 products per hour
utilisation rate = 15/20 = 0.75
Process 1
every 15 minutes a product arrives production rate: 20 products per hour
utilisation rate = 4/20 = 0.2 or 3/15 = 0.2
In calculating utilisation rates for serial processes, you need to locate the bottleneck first. In this way, you can calculate the number of products arriving at each of the processes.
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Example 7.5
Consider the production process in Figure 10.

arrival rate: 15 products per hour
Process 1
production rate: 5 products per hour
Process 2
production rate: 12 products per hour
Per hour, 15 products arrive at the system, but due to the bottleneck at process 1 only 5 products arrive at process 2 per hour. Utilisation of process 2 = 5/12 = 0.42
Productive utilisation rate In calculating productive utilisation rates we exclude setup times from operating times. Setup times occur, for example, if the paint cartridge of a painting machine must be replaced. Example 7.6
Consider the production process in Figure 11.
Process 1
Interarrival time: 4 minutes time required: 3 minutes per product production starts when 4 products have arrived (batch size is 4) setup time per batch: 1 minute
Production time per batch: 4*3 + 1 = 13 minutes Time elapsed until next batch is completed: 4*4 = 16 minutes utilisation = 13/16 = 0.81 productive utilisation rate: 12/16 = 0.75
Relation between utilisation rate and throughput time As we noted in Section 3, there may be a large difference between the deterministic estimate of the throughput time and the actual throughput time. This large difference is mainly caused by high utilisation rates. Consider, for example, the following three systems consisting of a single machine with a waiting line. Arrivals follow a Poisson distribution and processing times are negative exponentially distributed (so we can use a M/M/1 waiting line model). a. = 10 product per hour, = 30 products per hour b. = 10 product per hour, = 15 products per hour c. = 10 product per hour, = 11 products per hour
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The time products spend in the waiting line can be calculated as (see Heizer and Render, Module D) WS = 1/( ). So the time in the system is: a. WS = 0.05 hour = 3 minutes b. WS = 0.2 hour = 12 minutes c. WS = 1 hour = 60 minutes As you can see, the waiting time increases rapidly if approaches . In the extreme, if > , then in theory the waiting line would continue to grow indefinitely. In practice, this will generally mean that processes upstream are halted until there is sufficient space again in the buffer. This is the situation where we speak of a bottleneck (refer to Section 5). The example, we sketched here, holds in general. If the utilisation approaches 1 then the waiting time approached infinity. Note that the utilisation approaches 1 is equivalent to the notion approaches we used before, because utilisation = /. This relation is given graphically in Figure 12.
Waiting time
Figure 12: Relation between utilisation and waiting time
utilisation 0% 50 % 100 %

Consider a machine, which is busy 25% of its time, idle for 65% of its time and in repair for 10% of its time. What is efficiency for this machine?
Exercise 7.2
Arrival rate: 6 customers per hour
Workstation with 3 parallel employees. One employee can serve a customer in exactly 8 minutes
Consider the service process depicted above. What is the utilisation rate for the process?
Exercise 7.3
Consider a machine where each 10 minutes a single product arrives. The batch size equals 4 products. The set-up time per batch equals 6 minutes. The total processing time for processing 4 products equals 16 minutes. What are the utilisation rate and the productive utilisation rate for this machine?
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23
Work-in-progress
The work-in-progress (WIP) indicates the number of products/customers that have been taken into production/service but have not yet been finished. Generally, we can not compute the WIP exactly. We distinguish between two options to estimate the WIP. Firstly, we can use Littles equation: L=*W (8.1) where, L = average WIP = average number of products arriving per time-unit W = throughput time Note: use the same time-units for and W.
Example 8.1
Consider the production process in Figure 3. A product arrives each 5 minutes. = 1/5 product per minute. Throughput time = 17 minutes (see Example 3.1) WIP = * W = 1/5 * 17 = 3.4 products
Secondly, we can use equation (8.2).

n
i =1
* Xi
(8.2)
where, i = utilisation of machine/service-unit i Xi = batch size on machine/service-unit i n = number of machines/service-units
Example 8.2
Consider the production process in Figure 13:.
Interarrival time (of individual products): 4 minutes
Out
Process 2
Process 1
Required time: Exactly 2 minutes
Required time: 3 minutes per product Batch size = 4 Set-up time = 1 minute
WIP = 2/4*1 + 13/16*4 = 3.75 products (see example 7.6 for utilisation of process 2)
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Interarrival time (of individual products): 7 minutes
Transport (on conveyor) Requires on average 8 minutes
Out
Process 1
Process 2
2 operators in parallel
Required time: Normal (3,1) minutes
Time required per product On average 11 minutes
Consider the process depicted above. Determine the average Work-In-Progress with Littles equation?
Exercise 8.2
What is the average number of economy passengers (WIP) at the airport as described in Exercise 2.1?
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Solving bottleneck problems

If capacity exceeds demand, we may stimulate demand by, for example, reducing production or service tariffs. If demand exceeds capacity we may want to increase capacity by making staffing changes or by adjusting equipment and by redesigning processes and products. Solving bottleneck problems can be viewed in different time horizons. On a long term planning we can adjust capacity by adding facilities and equipment and by adjusting the product design. On an intermediate planning level setup times can be decreased or personnel can be trained to achieve a higher output. To modify capacity on the short run already existing capacity can be used more wisely by scheduling staff and jobs in a different way (for example, by using over-time and working in two groups), or by using larger batch sizes or by outsourcing activities to other companies . In this section we treat two examples for managers to solve capacity problems.
Example 9.1
Process 2 Process 1 (x operators Time required: in parallel) Average Exactly 3 minutes Transport interarrival (on conveyor) Time required time: requires per product 8 minutes on average 10 exactly 15 minutes minutes
In
Out
How many operators (servers) are required at process 2 to ensure a departure rate of at least 20 products per hour? Production rate of process 2 with one operator = 4 products per hour To achieve a production rate of 20 products per hour, at least 20/4 = 5 operators need to work in parallel. However, if we use 5 operators, the utilisation will be exactly 1.0. If there is only a small amount of uncertainty in the system (quite realistic), 5 operators will be insufficient. Therefore, we need a minimum of 6 operators. Did you notice an additional problem? The arrival rate is not high enough to achieve the required departure rate.
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Example 9.2
Process 1
Interarrival time: 4 minutes per product time required: 3 minutes per product batch size = X set-up time per batch = 10 minutes
What is the minimum batch size to prevent process 1 from being a bottleneck? Process 1 is not a bottleneck if the utilisation rate is smaller than 1. Utilisation = (3*X + 10)/4*X < 1 If X = 10 then both arrival and process 1 are bottleneck. So, the minimum batch size is 11.
In
Arrivals: 10 products per hour Process 1 Time required: 4.2 minutes per product Production batch size is x Set-up time per batch: 25 minutes
Out
Consider the process depicted above. What is the minimum batch size to prevent process 1 from being a bottleneck?
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10 Large exercises
Exercise 10.1A
A manufacturer of car audio equipment is planning to produce and to sell a new type of car radio next year. It will be a simple model that will be offered for a very fair price. To restrict the costs of these radios, they will be assembled from modules that are also used for other types. For the production of the radios only one assembly line will be needed.
Car-radio assembly
assembly 2 Interior work
buffer
assembly 1
buffer 1
Cover plates
buffer 2
assembly 3
assembly 2
The above figure shows a schematic overview of the assembly line, as it has been designed for the producer by an engineering consultant. Assembly will take place in three steps. In the first step (assembly 1) the supplied empty casing will be provided with a printed circuit board (PCB) and the mechanics for a CD player (the lining or interior). In the second step (assembly 2), this printed circuit board is soldered to the casing, after which the whole is mounted with a cover. Two parallel workstations are available for this operation. The radio is tested in the third step and a label with the type and serial number will be attached (assembly 3). The following facts are known about the assembly process: An empty casing arrives at the assembly line on average every 150 seconds The assembly of the interior work takes 120 seconds Soldering the PCB and mounting the cover takes 260 seconds Testing and labelling on the radio takes 140 seconds Printed circuit boards and covers are always sufficiently available Use Deterministic Performance Estimation techniques to determine: The number of radios produced in 4 weeks (1 week consists of 5 working days; each working day consists of 8 working hours) The throughput time of radios The utilization rates of the three different operations The average amount of work in progress (WIP)
Exercise 10.1B
One of your colleagues has built a simulation model of the radio assembly as described in question A. In this simulation, she could do what you could not when doing these calculations by hand: include stochasticity (i.e. include uncertainty by specifying a probability distribution of the arrival times and the production times). Some of the results from her simulation model are as follows: Total production: 3834 radios Throughput time: 973 seconds Utilization rate interior work: 0.79 Utilization rate soldering: 0.85 Utilization rate testing: 0.94 WIP: 5.2 products Can you explain the differences with the values that you calculated?
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Exercise 10.2A
The figure below shows a scheme of the production line of scissors. The basic material for scissors is stainless steel, which is offered in plates. A punching machine can make 10 half pairs of scissors out of one plate at once. Two punching machines are used, one for either half. Afterwards, the half pairs of scissors are deburred. The half pairs of scissors are then grinded on a grinding machine, after which they are ready for assembly. Hereto, two workstations are available where both half pairs are being assembled to become one pair of scissors. Then, the scissors are put on a conveyor to be transported to an inspection station where they will be tested thoroughly. The certified scissors will go to a packaging machine, which will pack them per 10 in a box. The unapproved scissors are thrown into a garbage bin, which will be emptied when 4 disapproved scissors are in it.
Scissors factory
B In B
Punching Punching
B B
Deburring
Grinding
B Out
Packing
waste Assembly
Inspection
Assembly
The following is known of the production process: On average every 2.5 minutes a plate is being delivered. The rejection percentage is 5% on average. A batch consists of 10 half pairs of scissors. All operations take place batchwise. In the assembly, a batch is built up of 2x10 half pairs of scissors = 10 scissors. The assembly of 20 half pairs of scissors takes place on one of the machines and lasts 380 sec on average. The capacity of the buffers between the operation steps is 40 scissor-halves (4 batches) per buffer. Furthermore, the following times are known: Parameter Distribution Interarrival time (of plates) Exponential Punching per plate Normal Deburring per batch Normal Grinding per batch Normal Assembly per batch Normal Inspection per pair of scissors Normal Packaging per 10 scissors Normal
Mean 150 160 75 130 380 19 150
Std. deviation 150 5 15 30 120 5 30
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Calculate, with Deterministic Performance Estimation techniques the following performance indicators The daily production of the scissors factory (1 day consists of 8 working hours) The throughput time of scissors in the production process. The utilization rates of the 6 different operation steps. The total amount of Work in Progress (WIP).
Exercise 10.2B
The board of directors of the factory is considering decreasing the prices of the scissors by 15%, since a market survey showed that by this decrease, the market share could be increased by 50%. Certainly production will have to be raised to achieve this. The board proposes to simply decrease the average interarrival time of plate material from 150 to 100 seconds. Will this measure increase the output by the desired 50%? Hint: determine the bottleneck and calculate the design capacity of this bottleneck.
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Answers to exercises
Flow diagrams
Answer exercise 2.1
Time required:
Answer exercise 2.2
Normal(3, ) minutes
Tranport (on conveyor A)

requires on average 9 minutes
60%
Arrival process:
arrival rate: 12 per hour
Process 1a 1 operator
Process 2 (4 operators in parallel)

Process 1b Time required per product
Out
40%
Tranport 10 min (on conveyor B)

requires on average 5 minutes
1 operator Time required: 6 minutes
exactly 30 minutes
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Answer exercise 2.3

60%
arrival
30%
interarrival time: 2 minutes between 9am and 5 pm 10%
withdraw automated teller

Norm (2,1/2) min 50% 50%
withdraw/deposit clerk
45% 35% Withdraw 4 min both 9 min deposit 5 min 20%
foreign clerk
1/2 + 1 + Norm(2,1/4) min
receipt
3/4 min
leave
Throughput times
Answer exercise 3.1 Answer exercise 3.2 Throughput time of economy passenger = 4 + 12 + 2 +5 +10 = 33 minutes Throughput time of a product: step 1 and 2: path 1: 0.60*(3+9+30) = 25.2 path 2: 0.40*(6+5+30) = 16.4 step 3: 25.2 + 16.4 = 41.6 minutes Withdraw at automated teller: 2 + * = 2.375 min Withdraw/Deposit Euro: 0.45*4 + 0.35*5 + 0.20*9 = 5.35 min Withdraw/Deposit foreign: + 1 + 2 = 3.5 min
Answer exercise 3.3
Design and Effective Capacity

Answer exercise 4.1 Design capacity check-in: step 1: deterministic processing time = 12 min step 2: production rate = 5 passengers per hour per counter production rate = 15 passengers per hour in total step 3: design capacity = 15 passengers per hour Design capacity customs: step 1: deterministic processing time = 5 min step 2: production rate = 12 per hour step 3: design capacity = 12 passengers per hour
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Answer Exercise 4.2
a. Design capacity Euro95/diesel: step 1: processing time of car at fuel pomp = time to fill up + time to walk to shop + time to pay + time to walk to car = 2 + 0.5 + 0.80*0.75 + 0.20*0.5 + 0.5 = 3.7 min step 2: production rate = 60/3.7* 3 fuel pumps = 48.6 cars step 3: design capacity during opening hours = 12 * 48.6 = 583 cars Design capacity LPG: step 1: processing time of car at fuel pomp = time to fill up + time to walk to shop + time to pay + time to walk to car = 2 + 0.5 + 0.80*0.75 + 0.20*0.5 + 0.5 = 3.7 min step 2: production rate = 60/3.7* 1 fuel pumps = 16.2 cars step 3: design capacity during opening hours = 12 * 16.2 = 194 cars Design capacity counter: step 1: processing time = 0.80*0.75 + 0.20*0.5 = 0.7 min step 2: production rate = 60/0.7* 1 counter = 85.7 cars step 3: design capacity during opening hours = 12 * 85.7 = 1028 cars b. Total number of customers arriving during opening hours = 960. 90% wants Euro95/diesel = 864 customers. However, only 583 can be handled. 10% wants LP = 96 customers. All LPG customers can be served. Total number of customers that get to the counter during opening hours = 583 + 96 = 679 customers. This is less than the design capacity, thus they can all be served at the counter. Total number of customers served during opening hours = 583 + 96 = 679 customers.
Answer exercise 4.3
Step 1: Deterministic processing time automated teller machine: 2 + *3/4 = 2.375 min per customer; design capacity = 202 customers per 8 hour Deterministic processing time Euro clerk: 0.45*4 + 0.35*5 + 0.20*9 = 5.35 min; design capacity = 89 customers per 8 hour Deterministic processing time foreign clerk: + 1 + 2 = 3.5 min; design capacity = 137 customers per 8 hour Step 2: Arrival process = 60/2 = 30 customers per hour * 8 hours = 240 customers Automated teller machine = 0.60 * 240 = 144 customers per day Withdraw/Deposit Euro clerk = 0.30 * 240 = 72 customers per day Withdraw/Deposit foreign clerk = 0.10 * 240 = 24 customers per day Step 3: Automated teller machine: sufficient Withdraw/deposit Euro clerk: sufficient Withdraw/deposit foreign clerk: sufficient
Bottlenecks
Answer exercise 5.1 System with single path: Step 1: Design capacity process 1: deterministic processing time for 2 products = 4*2 + 5 = 13 minutes production rate = 4.6 batches per hour design capacity = 9.2 products per hour Design capacity process 2: deterministic processing time = 4*5 + 9 = 29 min production rate = 2.07 batches per hour design capacity = 8.28 products per hour Step 2: Arrival rate: 60/7 = 8.6 products per hour Step 3: Thus, design capacity process 1 is sufficient and design capacity process 2 is insufficient. Process 2 is bottleneck.
Deterministic Performance Estimation Answer exercise 5.2
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System with single path: Step 1: Design capacity process 1: deterministic processing time = 17 minutes production rate = 60/17* 3 operators = 10.6 per hour design capacity = 10.6 products per hour Design capacity process 2: deterministic processing time = 3 min production rate = 20 products per hour design capacity = 20 products per hour Design capacity process 3: deterministic processing time = 12 min production rate = 60/12 * 2 operators = 10 products per hour design capacity = 10 products per hour Step 2: Arrival rate: 60/5 = 12 products per hour Step 3: Thus, design capacity process 1 is insufficient, design capacity process 2 is sufficient and design capacity process 3 is insufficient. Design capacity process 3 is smaller than design capacity process 1, process 3 is bottleneck.
Answer exercise 5.3
System with multiple paths: Steps 1, 2 (see answer exercise 4.3): Automated teller machine: sufficient Withdraw/deposit Euro clerk: sufficient Withdraw/deposit foreign clerk: sufficient Step 3: Design capacity all processes is sufficient: Arrival process is bottleneck
Departure rate
Answer exercise 6.1 design capacity process 1: 20 per hour design capacity process 2: 10 per hour design capacity process 3: 12 per hour arrival rate: 15 per hour bottleneck: process 2 departure rate = 10 products per hour arrival rate: 60 passengers per hour of which 20% is a business class passenger = 12 per hour design capacity check-in: 6 passengers per hour design capacity customs: 12 passengers per hour bottleneck: check-in, consequently departure rate = 6 business class passengers which require a vehicle per hour
Answer exercise 6.2
Utilisation and efficiency

Answer exercise 7.1 Answer exercise 7.2 efficiency = 0.25/(0.25 + 0.65) = 0.28
utilisation rate =
n*
6 = 0.27 60 3* ( ) 8
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Answer exercise 7.3
Production time per batch = 16 + 6 = 22 minutes Time elapsed = 4*10 = 40 minutes utilisation rate = 22/40 = 0.55 productive utilisation rate = 16/40 = 0.4
Work-in-Progress
Answer exercise 8.1 W = 3 + 8 + 11 = 22 minutes = 1/7 per minute WIP = 1/7 * 22 = 3.14 products
Answer exercise 8.2
W = 33 minutes (see exercise 3.1) = 1 passenger per minute WIP = 33 passengers
Solving bottleneck problems

Answer exercise 9.1 Process 1 is not a bottleneck if the utilisation rate is smaller than 1. Utilisation = (4.2x+25) / 6x 1 > (4.2x+25) / 6x 6x > 4.2x+25 1.8x > 25 x > 25/1.8 x > 13.9 So, minimum batch size is 14.
Large exercises indicator

Answer exercise 10.1A tot. radios throughput time ut.rate interior work ut.rate soldering ut.rate testing WIP
expected
4 weeks=576000 sec. prod. rate: 1 per 150 sec 3840 120+260+140 = 520 sec 120/150 = 0.8 130/150 = 0.87 140/150 = 0.93 (average # prod/sec) = 1/150 S=520, L=W= 3.47 iXi = ut.rates*batchsize = 0.8*1+0.87*1+0.87*1+0.93*1= 3.47
Answer exercise 10.1B
To explain the effect that occurs, imagine the following. There is a process that requires exactly 5 minutes per product. Products arrive at this process every 6 minutes. How long do you expect the queue to be? The queue length will be zero, because every time the process is ready, it will need to wait 1 minute until the next product arrives. Now assume that the arrival times are uncertain. The average is still 6 minutes, but the time between two arrivals may vary. Suppose 3 products arrive shortly after each other. Then 1 product is taken into production, and the other 2 products must wait. So now there is a queue! On the other hand, you may ask But what happens if the time between arrivals is temporarily larger? In our initial situation, the queue length was zero. If even fewer products arrive, then the queue length will still be zero (it clearly cannot become negative). These quiet periods can only be used to reduce the length of the waiting line that appeared due to the first effect. In total we, therefore, see an increase in the queue length. If the queue length increases, this means that products are waiting, which will increase the throughput time and the WIP. The effects in the situation described in this exercise are similar, only now we have the assembled effect of many uncertainties. The basic line of reasoning is, however, the same. Uncertainty usually increases
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WIP and throughput times. Note that in this case the simulated throughputtime is 87% higher than the deterministic throughput time. Then why are the utilization and the total production almost equal between the simulation and the calculation (if you would run the simulation for a couple of years, then the numbers will be even closer to each other)? Lets take the same example as before. The process requires exactly 5 minutes per product. One product arrives every 6 minutes. The utilization is 5/6 = 0.83. Now assume that there is uncertainty in the production time, 50% of the time it is 2 minutes and 50% of the time it is 8 minutes. What is the utilization? Simply (0.5*2+0.5*8)/6 = 0.83. The same holds if you introduce other probability distributions (e.g. a normal distribution). Sometimes the process is faster, sometimes slower, but the average remains the same.
indicator
Answer exercise 10.2A daily production throughput time ut.rate punching ut.rate deburring ut.rate grinding ut.rate assembly ut.rate inspection ut.rate packaging WIP
expected
91.2 boxes 914 (=160 + 75 + 130 + 380 + 19 + 150) 0.533 0.50 0.867 380/(4150) = 0.633 0.633 0.475 30.5 scissors (30.22 via i iXi)
Explanation: Daily production. The bottleneck is the interarrival rate, 150 seconds. Each 150 seconds, 1 plate is being delivered. 1 plate = 10 half pairs of scissors = 5 scissors. Of these, 5% is rejected. So, on average only 0.95 * 5 = 4.75 scissors can be produced per 150 seconds. Thus, the daily production is 3600 8 4.75 / 150 = 912 scissors = 91.2 boxes. Note that production is always measured in terms of the end products, which are boxes of 10 scissors in this case. Utilization. When computing the utilization rate for packaging, you have to take the rejection percentage into account as well as the fact that the arrival time for packaging is 300 seconds, because 2 batches are needed and the arrival time of batches is 150 seconds. So the utilization rate for packaging is (150*0.95)/300 = 0.475. WIP via Littles formula (L=W): W = 914, = 5 products/150 seconds L = 1/30*914 = 30.5 products. It is important to express both W and in the same units (we used seconds). WIP = i iXi = 0.533 5 + 0.533*5 + 0.5 5 + 0.867 5 + 0.633 10 + 0.633 10 + 0.633*1 + 0.475 10 = 30.22.
Answer exercise 10.2B
The new bottleneck is grinding with an operating time of 130 seconds. So the daily production is now 3600*8*5 (number of scissors per plate) * 0.95 (percentage of good scissors) / (130 * 10 (10 scissors per box)) = 105.2 boxes. Note that the daily production is exactly the production of the bottleneck, grinding. Increasing the daily production by 50% is therefore not possible without adapting the current machinery (more specifically, at least one extra grindingmachine would be needed to increase the production).

Deterministic Performance Estimation

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