NamdrikAtollRapidCoastalHazardAssessment 1.Introduction 1.1Background InrecentyearstheMarshallIslandsnationalconservationandbiodiversitystrategy(theReimaanlok)has broadened the scope of work to incorporate climate change and coastal management activities.

s. As a result, Reimaanlok field visits currently have an added focus placed on assessing coastal hazards and potential adaptation strategies. The following assessment is a component of the larger community drivenresourcemanagementplancurrentlyinprogressforNamdrikAtoll. The assessmentispartofthe Reimaanlok process and is intended to provide a synthesis of information on hazards within the coastal zone. The purpose of the assessment is to use the community driven Reimaanlok process along with a brief field investigation to isolate key coastal hazards to aid in the implementation of adaptation strategies. Tip:ThisisagenericintroductiontotheReimaanlokandthepurposeofintegratingclimateactivitiesinto thedevelopmentofthemanagementplan.Thissectionwillbelargelythesamebetweenislands. 1.2NamdrikAtoll Atoll islands are lowlying accumulations of sediment perched atop a coral reef composed of material produced on the surrounding reef. These islands are widely considered to be some of the most vulnerablelandformsonearthwithregardstotheimpactsofclimatechange.Atollislandstypicallyhave highlydynamicshorelines, witherosionandaccretionconstantlyreshapingislands.Bothclimatechange and locally induced stressors are acknowledged as drivers of coastal change and hazards along populatedatollcoastlines. Namdrik Atoll (lat/long) is located (240 miles) west southwest of Majuro, within the Marshall Islands Ralik chain of islands (Fig X). As part of the National Conservation and Biodiversity Strategy (the Reimaanlok) a rapid coastal hazard assessment was undertaken during (date) in order to assess the currentstatusoftheNamdrikcoastalzonewhileaddressingissuesraisedbythelocalcommunity.

 FigureX.NamdrikAtoll(53645N,1680645E)islocated240mileswestsouthwestofMajuroAtoll. Tip: This is a generic introduction to the atoll in question and the dates of the assessment. Include information on lat/long, you might want to include distance and bearing from Majuro (as thats what mostpeoplearefamiliarwith)i.e.Namdrikis240mileswestsouthwestofMajuroatoll. 1.3PhysicalSetting Namdrikatollisamidoceanatoll,withalagoonapproximatelyXkm2,withXkm2ofislandsandXkm2of reef flat. It consists of two islands (name and Madmad). Madmad , located in the northwest corner of the atoll is uninhabited and contains large stands of mangrove swamp. NAME is a continuous island typicallyXm wide.In thesouthwestsectionoftheatollNAMEis wider(upto Xm)andishometobotha freshwaterlensandthemajorityofthepopulation. Tip: This section should describe the atoll. The shape, size, key islands etc. If atolls have passes, mention the names and locations of the passes. Offshore reefs and any other key physical features should be

mentioned. Including, but not limited to swamps, mangroves, areas of high dunes, reef deposits of sand, significantpatchreefsetc. SatImage

FigureXSatelliteimageofNamdrikAtoll. Tip: A satellite image of each atoll should be acquired before ANY Reimaanlok visits are undertaken. If they are not publically available through the RMI EPA, try SOPAC or in the event no imagery is available funds should be allocated to obtain recent imagery . High resolution satellite imagery is very useful in mapping the key coastal features and when digitized within GIS packages provide a lot of information thatcannoteasilybecollectedinthefield.Somesources:RMIEPA,SOPAC,www.digitalglobe.com

! ! ! ! ! !

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Legend
Deep lagoon Shallow lagoon Vegetation Reef flat Airport
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Buildings

500

1,000 Meters

Figure X Key physical zones and assets of Namdrik Atoll. Namdrik is notable for the relatively small lagoon and the absence of any passages connecting the lagoon to the open ocean. The population is largely clustered in the southwest section of the island, with the majority of assets/infrastructure on the lagoon side of the island.

Tip: Before any visit is even undertaken baseline maps should be produced through digitizing satellite imagery. Both natural and manmade features should be digitized and stored as shapefiles. Additional informationcollectedinthefieldshouldbeaddedtothesemaps. 1.4TidalRegime At present there are no tidal predictions issued for Namdrik Atoll. During the assessment it was not possible to accurately determine features of the tidal regime including MSL, mean high water or spring tidelevel. Tip:Tidalinformationisavailableformany,butnotallRMIatolls.PredictionsareproducedbyNOAAand the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ and

http://www.bom.gov.au/oceanography/tides/ are two valuable websites with tidal information.

Kwajalein (NOAA) and Majuro (BOM) have tide gauges, other atolls are corrections based off Kwajalein andMajuro. 1.5Fetch Namdrik lagoon is small relative to other atolls in the Marshall Islands. Land encircles 64 % of the lagoon. As a result, lagoon shorelines are largely fetch limited. While oceanic waves are able to pass over the exposed reef flat and into the lagoon during period of high water (high tide), these waves are largely filtered by the reef flat. Fetch within Namdrik lagoon is a maximum of ~5km and along most stretches of shoreline is between 34km. Waves within the lagoon are for the large part fetch limited due to the deep lagoon >30m in most places. However, in areas of shallow lagoon depth induced breakingofwaveswouldoccur,resultinginsmallerwavesreachingtheshoreline.Modelingwavesinthe nearshore is complex and largely beyond the scope of this assessment. For the purposes of this assessment a simple maximum lagoon wave height is calculated using US Army Core of Engineers formulausinganonlineapplet1.Thelagoonisconsideredauniformlydeepbasinofwater30mdeepand awindspeedof12ms1wasused.Thisisconsideredupperlimitsoflikelynonstormwindspeed. The limited fetch along the lagoon shoreline limits waves to approximately 54 cm. This was verified during community consultations, where the local Mayor (insert name) indicated that waves rarely exceed shin/knee height. Based on the maximum wave height wave calculation and observations made by community members it is unlikely that locally generated waves would exceed 50cm, except under rarecircumstances.However,evenwavesofthissizeareabletomobilizebeachsediment,driveerosion andincreaselocalizedfloodingwhencoincidingwithhightide. Tip:Wind strengthandduration,combinedwithwaterdepth and fetchare the keycharacteristicswhich determine wave height. Ocean shorelines are subjects to both locally generated wind waves and swell waves which can be produced many thousands of miles offshore. To get an understanding of the maximum conditions within the lagoon we must measure the fetch (from satellite imagery using GIS software) and come up with values for lagoon depth and wind strength. It is rare in the RMI for lagoon depthtobeknown,butassume30mdepthinareaswheretheseafloorisnotsurveyedorvisiblefromthe surface. Wind speed varies a lot and in the absence of any meteorological data one must make an
1

http://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/staffpages/csherwood/sedx_equations/RunSPMWave.html

assumption. For Namdrik 12 ms1 was used, this equates to 27 mph. Wave information can also be extracted from community consultations, for Namdrik talking to local residents about how large waves gotonthebeachadjacenttotheirpropertyverifiedthenumericalcalculations. 1.6MarshallIslandsTyphoonHazardsTAKENFROMSPENNEMANN2 In the Marshall Islands there is a common belief that the southern atolls do not experience serious typhoons, and that Majuro Atoll is relatively "safe." The previous examples of the 1905 and 1918 typhoons or the 1979 flooding are seen by many in the RMI as "freak" exceptions, rather than as the standard level of threat. The question arises whether this is indeed so. In a review of 40 years of typhoon data, Birdwell and Daniels (1991) showed that probability of a tropical storm center occurring per year in the 5x5 degree areas in which the Marshall Islands are located is 28.75%, while the probabilityofatyphoon/hurricaneis10%.Butthereisevidencethatthesetyphoonsareclustered. An analysis of the historic record of typhoons in the Marshall Islands has identified a significant association between the occurrence of ENSO and the occurrence of typhoons in the Marshall Islands (Spennemann and Marschner, 1994). Whilst typhoons normally occur further to the west, the warming of the ocean waters around the Marshall Islands, as part of the ENSO phenomenon, spawns typhoons further to the east. The results of the statistical analysis suggest that typhoons are 2.6 times more likely to occur during ENSO years, with a 71% chance of a typhoon or severe tropical storm striking during an ENSO year, and only a 26% chance of one happening during a nonENSO year. The observed association betweenENSOandthehistoricoccurrenceoftyphoons(SpennemannandMarschner1994,inpress)fits well within the expectation of the assumption of typhoon genesis and seasurface temperature developments during ENSO phenomena. Further, the observed ratio of 2.6 times higher likelihood of typhoonsduringENSOyearsfitswellthefrequencypostulatedbyWendland(1977). Tip:ThissectionisliftedstraightoutofSpennemannandisgoodintroductiontotyphoonsinthe MarshallIslands. 1.6.1NamdrikStorms

http://marshall.csu.edu.au/Marshalls/html/typhoon/typhoon.html

Consultations with the Namdrik community revealed significant damage to housing (estimated up to 90% destroyed) as a result of a typhoon in 1979. Reef flat deposits of large coral boulders suggest that largestormseventshaveoccurredinthepast.

Figure X. Large coral boulders deposited on the western reef flat of Namdrik Atoll indicate high wave energy events associated with typhoons in the past. Coral boulders have been colonized by vegetation suggesting the boulders are stable and have been in place for some time. Local myths are used to explain the deposition of the boulders.

1.7Waveclimate Limited information is available on the oceanic wave climate surrounding Namdrik Atoll. Given the regional wave conditions it is likely to be dominated by northeasterly trade winds between December and May and more settled, sometime variable winds during the remainder of the year. Occasional local ordistantstormscangeneratesignificantswellevents. Tips: With time, the Majuro wave buoy will provide a wave climate for the Marshall Islands. There are likely regional differences throughout the Marshall Islands. However, this buoy will provide the only accuratelongtermmeasureofwaveconditions.http://cdip.ucsd.edu 1.8IslandMorphology

Figures X and X present crosssection profile of Namdrik Atoll (see Figure X for location). The oceanside coast is typically characterized by a beach composed of mediumsized sand with surface deposits of coralgravel.Thebermofvaryingheightispresentalongtheoceanshoreline,withamaximumheight2 3 m above high water mark, particularly in the area around the Copra warehouse at (lat/long). The oceanside berm is typically composed of a mix of sand and gravel. Landward of the berm the terrain slopes relatively evenly towards to the lagoon shoreline. In places, Taro pits and areas of swamp are present towards the lagoon coast. There is little evidence of berm development along the lagoon shoreline,inplaceswhereonewasmeasureditwastypically<0.20mhigh.Thisislikelyafunctionofthe limited wave energy on the lagoon shoreline which ordinarily drives berm formation through overwash and deposition of lagoon beach sediments. It is possible that lagoon berms have been destroyed by erosion or human activity, however, given the lack of berm appears continuous. The lagoon beach is generallynarrowerandflatterthanoceansidebeaches.Itislargelycomposedoffineandmediumsand, with isolated surface deposits of coral gravel. In places there is a steep erosional scarp along the lagoon shoreline.
1.8 1.6

Elevation (meters)

1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0

Floor elevation of community center Erosion scarp Berm High tide level (5/31/2010) Road

Toe of beach
20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Distance (meters)

Figure X Cross-section profile of the lagoon coastal zone at the community center in NAME, Namdrik.

2.4

2.0

Elevation (meters)

1.6 Lagoon High tide level (6/2/2010)

1.2

0.8

Ocean side

0.4 Toe of beach 0 20 40 60 Distance (meters) 80 100 Toe of beach 120

Figure X Cross-section profile through NAME island, Namdrik. Profile extends from lagoon through the island to the ocean coast.

Tips:Crosssectionswerederivedfromdumpylevelsurveys(seesurveyingguide).AtNamdrikthereare notidalpredictionssoitisdifficulttoreferencetheprofilestoMeanSeaLevel(MSL).Profilelines collectedonatollswithtidalpredictionsshouldbepresentedrelativetoMSL.Thesurveyingguide providesinformationonhowtoundertakesurveysandhowtoprocesstheinformationpresentingit relativetoMSL.Keyfeaturesshouldbenotedontheprofilesuchasbuildings,crops,roadsetc. 2.ClimateChangeintheRMI 2.1Sealevelrise Sealevelriseiswidelyconsideredtobethesinglegreatestclimaticthreattolowlyingatollnations.Sea levelriseisdrivenbythemeltingoficestoredinglaciersandterrestrialicecapsalongwiththe expansionofoceanwaterastemperaturesrise.Sealevelriseisneitheruniformacrossspaceorthrough time.WithintheMarshallIslandsgreatvariationsinsealevelareobservedparticularlyduringperiodsof ElNino. 2.2Past Acrosstimescalesofhours,weeks,yearsandcenturiesglobalandlocalsealevelisconstantlychanging. Someoftheseshorttermchangesinsealevelarearesultoftidesormeteorologicalevents.Longterm sealevelvariabilityisdrivenbychangesinglobaltemperatures.Itisonlyoverthepast100years(and morerecentlyintheRMI)thatequipmenthasbeenusedtomeasurechangesinsealevel.Withinthe

RMIgaugeshavebeeninstalledinEnewetak(19511979),Kwajalein(1946present)andMajuro(1968 present)
1.3 1.2 1.1

Monthlysea level

1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 70 72 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 Year 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09

Figure X Majuro sea-level record (1968-present)

Tips:ThischartisbasedofftheMajurotidegaugeranbyBOM.Formostsouthernatollsthisisthemost appropriatesourceofhistoricSLinformation.ForatollsclosertoKwajaleinthereisSLdataavailable fromtheNOAAtidegaugeatKwajalein.Bothdatasets(usemonthly)areavailablethroughthe UniversityofHawaiiSeaLevelCenter.http://ilikai.soest.hawaii.edu/uhslc/ 2.3Future Atpresent,thereisconsiderablediscussionanddebatesurroundingthemagnitudeandtimingoffuture sealevelrise.Whatiswidelyagreeduponisthatsealevelwillcontinuetoriseandthataccelerationin therateistobeexpected.TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)issuespredictionsfor avarietyofSLRscenarios.Thisisbaseduponacomplexreviewofexistingscientificinformationand models.The2007assessmentissuedpredictionsofSLRbetween0.18mand0.59mbytheendofthe century.Recentscientificresearchundertakenafterthe2007assessmentaddressedsomeofthe shortcomingsintheIPCCmethod(lackofconsiderationofthecontributionofcalvingoficetoSLR) indicatesthatSLRbytheendofthecenturycouldbeupwardsof1m.Despiteshortcomingsandrecent advancesofinthepredictionofSLRthisassessmentadoptstheupperboundsoftheSLRpredictions offeredbytheIPCC(0.59m)

 Tips: There is a great deal of information on SLR available. Reimaanlok teams need a standard message onSLR. The IPCCisthemostrobustassessment ofSLR.However,someconsideritrelativelyconservative andslowmoving,takingsometimetoadoptnewscientifictheoriesandpredictions.TheIPCCprojections should be used in Reimaanlok assessments with mention of the possibility of accelerated rates of SLR. A recent review undertaken by Chip Fletcher of the University of Hawaii is provided at: http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/coasts/publications/fletcher2009_sealevelreview.pdf 2.4ClimateChangeandStorminessintheMarshallIslands 3.ManandCoast 3.1HumanModifications While relatively pristine compared to the urban atolls within the Marshall Islands, Namdrik does exhibit evidence of human modifications within the coastal zone. The most apparent human activity has been thedredgingofaboatchannelontheoceansideadjacenttothecoprawarehouse.Thischannelisused during the loading and unloading of field trip ships and by traditional canoes fishing in the lee of the island. It is likely the boat channel has influenced reef flat circulation and wave processes. However, as the channel is shallow and does not extend to the island shoreline, it is unlikely to play a significant role iserosionofinundationoftheadjacentshoreline. Assessment:Anyfuturemodificationtotheboatchannelshouldincludeadetailedassessmentpriorto commencement.Theimpactsofchannelwideningordeepeningonthecirculation,sedimenttransport andwavepropagationwouldneedtobecarefullyassessed. Otherhumanmodificationswithinthecoastalzoneincludethereclamationofswampsneartheairport inordertoextendtheroad.Communitygroupssuggestthefillingoftheswamphashaddetrimental impactonbothfisheriesandlocalerosion.WithinthedenselypopulateddowntownareaofNamdrik thereisevidenceoferosionandsubsequentattemptsofshorelinestabilizationwithanadhocriprap wall.Thiswall,locatedinfrontofthemayorshouseiscomprisedofrecycledconcretefromthe demolishedoldschool.


Figure X. The boat channel on the western side of Namdrik atoll has altered reef flat circulation patterns. Any further modification to the boat channel should only follow a detailed assessment of possible effects on wave attenuation and reef flat circulation which could impact erosion on neighboring shorelines.

Figure X. A local solution to erosion and inundation control involves piling of organic debris, largely coconut husks along the shoreline adjacent to a house. This approach is likely to fail as buoyant organic material will likely to washed away during periods of high water levels.

Assessment:Anyfutureconstructionofseawallsoranystructuresonthebeachshouldcarefully considertheflowoneffectstoadjacentsectionsoftheshoreline. 3.2ShorelineErosion The communityindicatesthaterosionhasbeenobservedoverthepast20yearsintwo particularareas: the airport and the downtown. There is increasing concern regarding the impacts of erosion on buildings, graves, and property. In the northern region of Namdrik, they estimate erosion of approximately32feet(tworowsofcoconuttrees)onthelagoonside,where,graveshavestartedtofall into the lagoon. They associate the erosion here with the filling of the Northern swamp, an area that connects downtown to the airport, which was constructed in 1982. In the downtown area, coconut trees and Japanese shade trees (?) are being undercut. People indicate that the beach used to be 20 feetseaward.ThelargetreeshadbeenplantedbytheJapanese,priortotheSecondWorldWar.

Figure X. Erosion to the lagoon shoreline adjacent to the community center has resulted in many Coconut and Pandanus tree toppling into the lagoon. The root balls of the remaining Coconut palms tend to focus wave energy towards unprotected sections of the shoreline, encouraging further erosion.

In the downtown region, sand has been mined by the residents for construction, including the dispensary(1999),cementhomes(USDAhousingbeganin2005),cementcisterns,andmostrecentlyfor the new school (2007). The cyclone of 1979 destroyed 95% houses, and houses were rebuilt, some of them being made of cement, others with plywood. Traditional houses were made of wood, thatched roofs, and were elevated are not common now, however, there are some in the mid atoll area. In the northern end, the source of the marsh fill in the 1980s was likely the beach as well, which would correspond to the erosion observations. The trees being undercut by erosion exacerbate the problem, sincetherootshavebeenabletohelpstabilizethebeach.Thesetreesactaregroynes,directingincident waveenergyintosoft,unconsolidatedpocketsofsand. Tips: The bulk of the information on shoreline erosion at Namdrik was obtained through the community consultation phase of the Reimaanlok. Resource mapping, timelines and general discussions with the community were the prime sources of the information. It is recommended that Reimaanlok teams take interpretive walks with community members, prompting conversations on shoreline change. Obviously the outputs are highly qualitative and subject to bias, but with an absence of other tools Reimaanlok teamsmustrelyonthecommunitytoobtainnecessaryinformation. Corrective Actions taken: The Mayor indicates that sand for the school and other projects is now taken from the ocean side, not the lagoon side. There has been some corrective action taken by three individuallandownerstobuildwallstoprotecttheirpropertyfromfloodinganderosion.Oneconsistsof rockspiledonthebeach,whileanotheriscoconuthusksandsmallrocks(FiguresXandX).


Figure X. Unless carefully planned, designed and constructed ad hoc seawalls are likely to promote erosion in adjoining sections of the shoreline. A coastal plan is recommended to ensure effective use of coastal protections to mitigate hazards such as erosion and inundation.

Assessment:Itishighlylikelythaterosionwillcontinueandpossiblyaccelerategiventhelikelihoodof acceleratedsealevelrise.Itisuncertainifstorminesswillincrease,whichcouldbringepisodesof erosion.Carefulmanagementoflocalsandminingneedstobeconsideredtoreduceimpactswithinthe coastalzone.Sandandaggregateshouldbesourcedfromareasofthelagoonwherematerialdoesnot contributetothebeachsystem.Thisiseithera)sandfromdeepersectionsofthelagoon,orb)sand fromreefflatdepositsbetweenMadmadandthetipofNamdrik(NAME) 3.3Stormandtidalinducedflooding Thehistoricaltimelineindicatesthatflooding(approximately3feet)uptotheroadinthedowntown areaoccurredduringtheJanuary2007Kingtides.Duringthe2005Kingtides,cropsweredamaged extensively.Inadditiontothetidalflooding,thecommunityrecallstyphoonsin1957(100%homeslost, majorcroploss,andthelocaltapiocadidnotrecover),1979(95%homeslost,cropsdamaged,fallen trees,saltwatercontaminationofwells),and1991(northernreefpinnacleoceansidebrokenoff,lossof giantclamscollectionareaandspearfishingareas).Thecommunityindicatesthatwhiletheyhave receivedwarningabouthighwindsassociatedwithcyclone,theydonotreceivewarningoftidalsurge

orfloodingpotential.OneoftheareasthatfloodsregularlyisdowntownneartheCatholicand ProtestantChurches. CorrectiveActionstaken:Therehasbeensomecorrectiveactiontakenbythreeindividuallandowners tobuildwallstoprotecttheirpropertyfromfloodinganderosion.Oneconsistsofrockspiledonthe beach,whileanotheriscoconuthusksandsmallrocks.Intermsofcropdamage,peoplehavewashed theircropswithfreshwaterfollowingtheflood.SomeofthenewUSDAhouseshavefoundationsthat areapproximately812abovegroundlevel.Thetraditionalhousesareelevatedonwoodenstilts,but arenolongerbuilt.Thereisoneconcretehouseindowntownthatiselevatedapproximately???feet. Assessment:Futuresealevelrisewillincreasethefrequencyandmagnitudeofinundationand flooding.Giventhelowelevationofpopulatedareas(lagoonwardoftheroad)itislikelythatsmall increasesinsealevelwillresultinregularflooding.Topographicprofilingindicatesthatlargesectionsof theislandarepresentlyatoraroundtheverticallimitofpresentdaysealevel.Itislikelythatany additionalsealevelrise,whichisconsideredhighlylikely,willresultinregularinundationwithinthese areas.Optionstoaddressthishazardinclude: Ceaseanynewconstructionwithinthemostvulnerableareas(lagoonwardofroad). Relocationofhousestohighersectionsoftheisland(seawardside). Constructionofhousesresilienttoflooding(raisedhousing). Carefulmanagementofgroundwaterresources,salinityandlevelshouldbemonitoredto determineanyimpactsofsaltwaterintrusion. Efficientcollectionandstorageofrainwaterincisterns/tanksshouldcontinuetobe encouragedtoprepareforlikelyintrusionofsaltwaterintogroundwater. KeyFindings Erosionisacriticalissuetothecommunitywhoestimateratesapproximately1ft/yralongthe lagooncoast.ThereisevidenceofongoingerosionwithrecenterosionscarpsandCoconut palmsclosetobeingfullyundercut. Floodingoccursduringstormsandduringseasonalkingtides. Floodingdrivenbylagoonwavesisrareduetothefetchlimitedconditions. Constructionofseawallsalonglagoonshoreline. Introductionofsalttolerantcropsinvulnerableareas.

Occasionalstormsarelikelytohavecatastrophicimpactsontheisland,itsinfrastructureand residents.Communityconsultationsuggestover95%ofhousesweredestroyedduringa typhoonin1979.