Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Investment Thesis
Key Statistics
52 Week Price Range 50-Day Moving Average Estimated Beta Dividend Yield Market Capitalization 3-Year Revenue CAGR $34.45 - $78.25 $XX$XX.XX $45.82 1.79 1.93 $2.97 billion 12.39%
Abercrombie & Fitch has upheld its brand image through economic recessions and continues to operate as a forward-looking company under guidance of CEO Michael S. Jeffries Recent and forecasted international expansion proves to be very promising in European and Asian markets Domestic consolidation and the reassessment of efficiency levels have demonstrated to be rewarding and has also led to comparable store growth
Trading Statistics
Diluted Shares Outstanding Average Volume (3-Month) Institutional Ownership Insider Ownership EV/EBITDA 84.7 million 2.996 million 93% 1% 5.11x
$90.00 $80.00 $70.00 $60.00
25000000
20000000
15000000
$50.00 $40.00
10000000
$30.00
$20.00 $10.00 $0.00 May-07 Nov-07 May-08 Nov-08 May-09 Nov-09 May-10 Nov-10 May-11 Nov-11
Volume Price 50-Day Avg 200-Day Avg
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Business Overview
Founded in 1892, Abercrombie & Fitch has gone through many transformations since its inception. Once known for being a notable outfitter of outdoor and hunting equipment, Abercrombie & Fitch has made the transition to becoming a specialty retailer of apparel. The Ohio-based company has gone through many dramatic turns which include filing for chapter 11 bankruptcy in 1976, and a short-lived acquisition by Limited Brands in 1988. However, thanks to the direction of CEO Michael Jeffries, Abercrombie & Fitch has firmly established itself in the apparel industry. The company is unique in that it views its brand image and in-store experience as its greatest marketing vehicles. There are a total of four brands that the company operates as sources of revenue: Abercrombie & Fitch, abercrombie, Hollister, and Gilly Hicks. Each brand has a unique client base and targets separate demographic and psychographic audiences in order to avoid the cannibalization of sales.
abercrombie
Much like Abercrombie & Fitch in terms of style and product offerings, abercrombie differs by targeting kids ages 7 to 14. This brand aspires to adhere directly to the All-American vibe that resonates with Hollister and Abercrombie & Fitch, while keeping a strong emphasis on its East Coast heritage. At the end of Fiscal 2011, there were 159 abercrombie stores in operation, a decrease from previous years.
Hollister
The Hollister brand aims to capture the laidback spirit of Southern California in its product offerings. Hollister brings the beach to the world, targeting 14-18 year olds in the United States and abroad. Its product mix includes jeans, shorts, t-shirts, dress shirts, dresses, and fragrances. Since Fiscal 2009, Hollister has become the companys largest source of revenue and shows no sign of relinquishing the lead position. At the end of Fiscal 2011, there were 571 Hollister stores in operation, an increase from previous years.
Gilly Hicks
Gilly Hicks is the companys newest endeavor and most unique; the brand specializes in making bras and underwear for young women. The target demographic is very similar to that of Limited Brands lingerie superpower, Victorias Secret. Gilly Hicks cites Sydney, Australia as the main source of its carefree and sexy inspiration. At the end of Fiscal 2011, there were 21 Gilly Hicks stores in operation, an increase from previous years.
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Strategic Positioning
Brand Image
Abercrombie & Fitch views brand image as its most important asset; it is because of their positioning that they are able to charge a premium on their apparel. Many of Abercrombie & Fitchs competitors have been quick to lower prices in slow economic times. However, Abercrombie & Fitch has continually refused, believing that doing so would permanently tarnish their iconic brands. The company has stayed true to its philosophy of only providing quality products to the customer, and believes that their efforts will be rewarded in the years to come.
In-Store Experience
Abercrombie & Fitch considers itself one of the pioneers of using the in-store experience as a marketing vehicle. Because the company prefers to limit its outreaching marketing efforts, Abercrombie & Fitch regards their in-store experience as the greatest medium for each brand to communicate its ethos. Upon entering a store, customers are greeted with scents, music, lighting, furnishings, and sales associates that all encompass the culture of that stores brand. Merchandise is meticulously placed and presented as well, maximizing the use of subliminal marketing. Attention to detail and uniformity across each store ensures that a consistent atmosphere is projected, regardless of location.
Direct-to-Consumer
Direct-to-consumer is considered an online extension of the companys trademark in-store experience. Through independent websites, customers are reintroduced to each brands personality. These websites allow domestic and international customers to view and purchase products directly. Alongside social media, direct-to-consumer websites are used as a means of exposure in international markets. .
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Domestic Consolidation
The company has found that it has saturated many of its domestic markets, and has been in the process of closing underperforming stores through natural lease expirations. A total of 68 stores were closed in Fiscal 2011, reaching a sum of 135 stores since Fiscal 2010. Along with the closures, Abercrombie & Fitch is attempting to focus its efforts on increasing sales in comparable stores (a store that has been in operation under the same brand for over one year). After a 23% decrease in comparable store sales in Fiscal 2009, the company has seen an increase of 7% and 5% for fiscal years 2010 and 2011, respectively. Abercrombie & Fitch has also extended its domestic efforts to its two distribution centers in New Albany, Ohio. By the end of Fiscal 2012, the company expects to finish consolidating the distribution centers into one, and foster the sale or lease of the second facility. This decision is projected to increase efficiencies and lower future operating costs.
30
20 10 0 A&F abercrombie Hollister Gilly Hicks Total
Industry
Overview
Ironically, one of the most consistent aspects of the Specialty Apparel Retail Industry is that there will always be change. Consumer tastes can shift on a weekly or monthly basis, requiring companies to anticipate and quickly respond to changing fashion trends in order to stay relevant. Specialty apparel is unique in that there are usually premiums associated with products due to the luxurious nature of the industry. Although this is a gateway to other macroeconomic disadvantages, it also leads to higher profit margins relative to the apparel industry as a whole.
The Apparel Industry is a very seasonal business and is divided into two primary seasons: Spring (Q1 and Q2) and Fall (Q3 and Q4). Fall is always guaranteed to be the more lucrative of the two seasons, with back-to-school shopping and holiday season as the main drivers behind this. Specialty retailers of apparel have always operated through traditional brickand-mortar stores. Often times, the success of a brick-and-mortar store is reliant on how their respective malls perform. With a general decline in the popularity of malls, the application of direct-to-consumer websites and social media has become a necessity.
Macro factors
A&F abercrombie Hollister Gilly Hicks Total
The Specialty Apparel Retail Industry is observed to be directly correlated with many macroeconomic factors. As with most industries, when disposable income levels decrease, consumers turn to cheaper substitutes. However, when there is an economic recovery, specialty apparel retailers outperform the industry overall. The industry is also seen to be in direct correlation with consumer sentiment, which has reached a four year high of 79.3 (previous high was recorded in October 2007) according to the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan index.
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Other microeconomic factors include input costs, with a heavy emphasis on the price of cotton, which drives average unit costs up; cotton prices reached an alltime high during Fiscal 2011, but are projected to decrease in the second half of Fiscal 2012. Also, increasing transportation costs are not helped by continued unrest in the Middle East. However, futures curves project oil prices to trend downwards in the coming years. An important industry trend to note is international expansion, a concept that was very foreign to specialty retailers until recent years. Also, consumers are beginning to favor direct-to-consumer systems, which have rapidly gained popularity and are continuing to generate a higher percent of revenue every year.
Competition
Abercrombie & Fitch has many competitors in the Specialty Apparel Retail Industry, most of them being mid cap companies. In some cases, competitors even have identical business models. American Eagle Outfitters currently operates three brands that align directly with Abercrombie & Fitchs brands: AE targets the demographics covered by both the Hollister and Abercrombie & Fitch brands; the aerie brand sells intimates and competes directly with Gilly Hicks; and 77kids is a direct competitor for abercrombie. There are many other direct and indirect players in the industry, which consists of companies like Urban Outfitters, Express, Gap, H&M, Ralph Lauren, Buckle, Zumiez, Guess?, and Aeropostale. The main determinant of success among competitors is the ability to predict and adapt to the changing fashion trends in order to maintain a reputable brand image.
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Financial Officer of TWBA Worldwide, he served as Controller and Principal Accounting Officer of Omnicom Group Inc. from June 1996 to December 1998. Reuters In Fiscal 2011, Ramsden received $4,043,170 in total compensation.
Portfolio History
Svigals Portfolio
On May 2, 2011, the Svigals portfolio purchased 50 shares of ANF at $71.16 for a cost basis of $3,566. Since then, 33 shares have been shed at $45.0201 for a market value of $1,477.66. There are 17 shares remaining, with a current market value of $615.91.
Recent News
May 25, 2012 Abercrombie & Fitch drops price, entertains lease option on huge warehouse In March, Abercrombie & Fitch put its second distribution center up for sale as part of its attempt to reduce distribution expense and increase efficiency. With an initial asking price of $90 million, it has dropped down significantly to $50 million. This is most likely due to Abercrombie & Fitchs thirst for extra cash to help fund its international efforts. Holding the property does not hurt Abercrombie, but any extra revenue is gladly accepted. May 27, 2012 PayPal Expands Technology to These 15 New Retailers PayPal has recently developed in-store payment technology, giving customers the option to access their PayPal sources at the register. At their most recent press conference, PayPal announced that Abercrombie & Fitch is one of 15 new retailers to be added onboard. This introduces yet another method of payment for customers to choose from, and can prove to help Abercrombie & Fitchs direct-to-consumer websites as well as their brick-and-mortar stores.
Catalysts
Upside
Decrease in Cotton and Petroleum prices could expand margins Success/Continuation of international expansion Longevity of Gilly Hicks brand Decrease in Unemployment Rate Increase in Consumer Sentiment and Disposable Income per Capita
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Downside
Increases in costs of Cotton, Petroleum, and Labor Potential failure of Gilly Hicks brand Inability to preserve brand image could result in adverse effects Closing too many domestic stores could potentially decrease margins
Comparable Analysis
Abercrombie & Fitch has many competitors, but few that obtained similar growth patterns. In the selection process for the comparable analysis, the basic aspects I first noted were companies size, business models, risks relative to the market, debt to equity, and price to earnings. Afterwards, I looked at the 3-year historical and 3-year estimated growth rates for every company in each of the following categories: EBITDA, Free Cash Flow, Revenue, Gross Income, and Earnings Per Share. After mapping everything out, I rewarded a point towards whichever company had the rate most similar to Abercrombie & Fitchs in each year (historical and estimate) and category. From my list of highest ranking companies, I then made qualitative assessments and chose Urban Outfitters, Zumiez, Guess?, and American Eagle Outfitters as my comparables. Company weightings were also assigned using ratios from the system aforementioned, along with qualitative reasoning.
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snowboards and ancillary gear, such as boots and bindings. The Company also offers a selection of other items, such as miscellaneous novelties. Reuters Zumiez was chosen and weighted at 34% after calculations stemming from the selection process were made.
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Revenue is segmented by brand, as it is in the companys SEC filings, and then projected on a per store basis. Since international stores have vastly outperformed domestic stores, separate calculations were done for more accurate estimates. Previous years growth from comparable stores was accounted for when calculating revenues generated by each new store. Analysts estimates and company guidance was also taken into consideration. Abercrombie & Fitch Abercrombie & Fitch was projected to grow at a healthy 10% for Fiscal 2012 following the introduction of 5 new flagship stores in unsaturated European and Asian markets. Estimated growth is also fueled by the implementation of similar comparable store growth rates from Fiscal 2011, since domestic consolidation and international expansion rates remains constant. I have progressively trended Abercrombie & Fitch so that it is at 3% in the terminal year. Hollister Hollister was estimated to grow at a 25% rate for Fiscal 2012. This was based on per store revenue projections of 40 confirmed new international Hollister stores, in addition to increased revenue from comparable store growth and consolidation. I gradually trend down because I do not believe Hollister can sustain its ridiculous growth rates, especially amid the uncertainties from the European debt crisis. abercrombie Based on my interpretation of current store trends and historical rates, abercrombie was only estimated to grow 3.75% in Fiscal 2012. Of the companys four brands, abercrombie reported the lowest growth rates for total sales and comparable store sales in Fiscal 2011. Gilly Hicks Gilly Hicks has experienced great year-over-year growth; only a total of 21 stores have been opened, thus each store accounts for a greater percentage of its total revenue. I have projected a decreased growth rate for Gilly Hicks in Fiscal 2012. The downward trend is due to my belief that Gilly Hicks will not be able to capture sufficient market share from Victorias Secret to sustain its current growth rates.
COGS
Costs of Goods Sold was projected as a percent of revenue and slightly decreased in Fiscal 2012. This follows management guidance on average per unit costs dropping in Q3 and Q4. The rationale behind the slight downward trend is economies to scale coming into effect as the company expands internationally.
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Beta
Six different betas were calculated using a regression against the S&P 500: 3 year daily, 1 year weekly, 3 year weekly, 5 year weekly, 3 year monthly, and 5 year monthly. Volatility from consolidation from the last 3 years, and aggressive international expansion from last year, has facilitated the decision to choose the 3 year weekly and 1 year weekly regressions. Each were weighted an even 50%. Hamada betas were omitted since each companys capital structure was similar in that there was little to no debt.
Beta 3 YR Daily 1 YR Weekly 3 YR Weekly 5 YR Weekly 3 YR Monthly 5 YR Monthly 1.36 1.70 1.87 1.72 2.15 1.67
SD
Capital Expenditures
Capital Expenditures for Fiscal 2012 were forecasted to be $400 million, which follows specific management expectations. For future years projections, a downward trending percent of revenue was used based on my belief that Abercrombie & Fitch will not be able to sustain its current level of expansion.
Tax Rate
Abercrombie & Fitchs tax rate was trended downwards because the respective international rates are lower than the 35% domestic rate. As the companys revenue shifts from domestic to international, they will experience a pull towards lower rates.
Recommendation
Although Abercrombie & Fitch experienced unfavorable growth rates in Fiscal 2008 and Fiscal 2009, a dramatic turnaround in the last 2 years reflects positively on its future. Domestic consolidation and further expansion into international markets will continue to help Abercrombie & Fitch achieve high gross margins.
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The Discounted Cash Flow Analysis gives Abercrombie & Fitch an implied price of $40.26, and the Comparable Analysis has implied a price of $59.99. When assigned an even 50-50 weighting, the final implied price is $50.12, yielding an undervaluation of 38.35%. I recommend a hold for both Svigals and Tall Firs portfolios.
Final Valuation Comparable Analysis DCF Analysis Implied Price Current Price Undervalued
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Max $36.23 45.82 47.72 2.03 0.00 57.85 719.55 8.29 0.00 194.54 4,126.91 3,891.79 60.58% 14.78% 17.64% 10.07% $3.58 2.39% 0.12 23690.26% $4,158.06 2,518.87 397.24 474.28 270.65 1.69x 4.65x 14.40x 11.05x 25.12x
Min Weight Avg. $19.99 $29.61 18.59 29.41 15.68 27.64 0.89 1.39 0.00 0.00 172.80 0.00 0.00 31.17 1,110.91 938.11 34.79% 5.80% 11.40% 3.07% $0.00 0.00% 0.00 13253.54% $555.87 201.68 65.16 84.90 37.35 0.58x 0.96x 4.82x 4.04x 7.07x 0.00 0.00 310.28 1.08 0.00 107.49 2,845.80 2,536.60 36.52% 11.44% 15.34% 7.21% $0.26 0.00% 0.00 3079.73% $1,938.74 710.83 217.10 295.36 141.71 1.43x 3.97x 12.80x 9.37x 20.58x
Median $27.77 28.08 28.98 1.28 0.00 0.00 363.47 0.00 0.00 119.78 3,143.56 2,542.03 35.99% 11.58% 15.54% 7.10% $0.00 0.00% 0.00 23690.26% $2,580.92 994.44 257.15 381.53 168.48 1.29x 3.67x 13.73x 9.24x 20.95x
Multiple EV/Revenue EV/Gross Profit EV/EBIT EV/EBITDA EV/Net Income Price Target Current Price Undervalued
Implied Price Weight $77.19 33% $125.22 0.00% $43.64 34% $59.63 33% $38.21 0.00% $59.99 36.23 65.57%
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723.6 20.77%
356.7 12.18%
461.1 13.29%
423.0 10.17%
639.5 13.10%
814.4 14.50%
914.9 14.50%
1011.0 14.50%
1114.0 14.75%
1189.3 14.75%
1263.7 14.75%
1347.7 15.00%
1406.9 15.00%
1450.9 15.00%
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2022.002 2527.5025
109.5255 158.81198 222.33677 300.15463 375.19329 450.23195 517.76674 569.54342 609.41145 639.88203
4158.058 4881.5019 5616.6182 6309.8039 6972.6267 7552.5916 8063.3719 8567.2259 8984.6939 9379.3934 9672.9634
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$522.12 14.99% $53.11 5.6 1.52% $372.42 117.9 10.69% $43.41 13.7 1.25% $93.76 29.7 2.69% $1,084.83 31.15% $1,318.29 $367.60 ($225.33) $1,398.66 $2,483.48 40.16% $92.81 29.4 2.66% $241.23 76.4 6.93% $16.46 5.2 0.47% $42.36 1.22% $449.80 12.91%
$702.31 23.98% $90.87 11.4 3.10% $310.65 108.8 10.61% $44.57 15.6 1.52% $77.30 27.1 2.64% $1,225.68 41.85% $1,398.66 $175.47 ($238.75) $1,244.02 $2,469.70 42.48% $150.13 52.6 5.13% $246.29 86.3 8.41% $9.35 3.3 0.32% $43.60 1.49% $449.37 15.34%
$826.35 23.82% $74.78 7.9 2.16% $385.86 112.1 11.12% $60.41 17.5 1.74% $79.39 23.1 2.29% $1,426.78 41.13% $1,244.02 $160.94 ($229.15) $1,154.76 $2,581.54 33.29% $137.24 39.9 3.96% $300.10 87.2 8.65% $73.49 21.3 2.12% $41.54 1.20% $552.36 15.92%
$668.15 16.07% $89.35 7.8 2.15% $569.82 125.8 13.70% $77.12 17.0 1.85% $84.34 18.6 2.03% $1,488.78 35.80% $1,154.76 $318.60 ($232.96) $1,197.27 $2,686.05 28.79% $211.37 46.7 5.08% $375.02 82.8 9.02% $77.92 17.2 1.87% $41.05 0.99% $705.35 16.96%
$781.04 16.00% $104.03 7.8 2.13% $613.26 121.0 12.56% $86.16 17.0 1.77% $96.30 19.0 1.97% $1,680.78 34.43% $1,197.27 $400.00 ($146.42) $1,450.85 $3,131.64 29.72% $238.21 47.0 4.88% $425.73 84.0 8.72% $91.23 18.0 1.87% $48.33 0.99% $803.49 16.46%
$842.49 15.00% $120.03 7.8 2.14% $699.98 120.5 12.46% $98.75 17.0 1.76% $110.37 19.0 1.97% $1,871.62 33.32% $1,450.85 $393.16 ($182.46) $1,661.56 $3,533.18 29.58% $273.02 47.0 4.86% $493.76 85.0 8.79% $104.56 18.0 1.86% $56.17 1.00% $927.51 16.51%
$914.92 14.50% $134.84 7.8 2.14% $777.92 120.0 12.33% $110.21 17.0 1.75% $123.82 19.1 1.96% $2,061.71 32.67% $1,661.56 $378.59 ($217.16) $1,822.99 $3,884.70 28.89% $304.69 47.0 4.83% $551.03 85.0 8.73% $116.69 18.0 1.85% $63.10 1.00% $1,035.50 16.41%
$1,045.89 15.00% $149.00 7.8 2.14% $850.35 119.5 12.20% $120.97 17.0 1.73% $135.91 19.1 1.95% $2,302.13 33.02% $1,822.99 $348.63 ($249.12) $1,922.50 $4,224.64 27.57% $334.45 47.0 4.80% $604.85 85.0 8.67% $128.09 18.0 1.84% $73.21 1.05% $1,140.60 16.36%
$1,170.65 15.50% $160.96 7.8 2.13% $908.58 119.0 12.03% $129.80 17.0 1.72% $146.59 19.2 1.94% $2,516.58 33.32% $1,922.50 $302.10 ($276.81) $1,947.80 $4,464.38 25.79% $358.85 47.0 4.75% $648.99 85.0 8.59% $137.43 18.0 1.82% $79.30 1.05% $1,224.57 16.21%
$1,269.98 15.75% $172.31 7.8 2.14% $962.05 118.5 11.93% $138.02 17.0 1.71% $155.88 19.2 1.93% $2,698.24 33.46% $1,947.80 $241.90 ($298.98) $1,890.71 $4,588.96 23.45% $381.57 47.0 4.73% $690.08 85.0 8.56% $146.13 18.0 1.81% $88.70 1.10% $1,306.49 16.20%
$1,370.76 16.00% $183.08 7.8 2.14% $1,010.93 118.0 11.80% $145.64 17.0 1.70% $165.35 19.3 1.93% $2,875.76 33.57% $1,890.71 $257.02 ($322.54) $1,825.19 $4,700.95 21.30% $402.66 47.0 4.70% $728.21 85.0 8.50% $154.21 18.0 1.80% $94.24 1.10% $1,379.32 16.10%
$1,527.40 17.00% $192.00 7.8 2.14% $1,048.47 117.5 11.67% $151.69 17.0 1.69% $172.22 19.3 1.92% $3,091.78 34.41% $1,825.19 $269.54 ($347.25) $1,747.48 $4,839.26 19.45% $419.39 47.0 4.67% $758.47 85.0 8.44% $160.62 18.0 1.79% $103.32 1.15% $1,441.80 16.05%
$1,688.29 18.00% $199.89 7.8 2.13% $1,079.40 117.0 11.51% $156.84 17.0 1.67% $178.98 19.4 1.91% $3,303.39 35.22% $1,747.48 $281.38 ($363.07) $1,665.79 $4,969.18 17.76% $433.60 47.0 4.62% $784.18 85.0 8.36% $166.06 18.0 1.77% $107.86 1.15% $1,491.71 15.90%
$1,837.86 19.00% $206.71 7.8 2.14% $1,103.74 116.5 11.41% $161.06 17.0 1.67% $183.80 19.4 1.90% $3,493.18 36.11% $1,665.79 $290.19 ($289.90) $1,666.08 $5,159.26 17.22% $445.29 47.0 4.60% $805.31 85.0 8.33% $170.54 18.0 1.76% $111.24 1.15% $1,532.37 15.84%
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Appendix 8 Sources
SEC Filings Abercrombie & Fitch Investor Relations page Factset Yahoo! Finance Google Finance Thomson Reuters University of Michigan Seeking Alpha
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