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December 2009
GLOBAL OUTLOOK
BEYOND THE RECOVERY TRADE
PLEASE REFER TO THE LAST PAGE FOR ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
FOREWORD
Given the massive swings in economies and markets over the past couple of years, it seems unusual that not much has changed since the September issue of the Global Outlook (Still in the sweet spot). The global economy remains in recovery mode, which, after such a severe recession, translates into above-trend growth. The expansion in Asia where the recovery began is now downshifting to a more sustainable pace, but this is being offset by activity in the laggards such as the US, which is just now gaining a head of steam. Meanwhile, much of the extreme policy stimulus including direct purchases of financial assets remains in place. The combination of economic recovery and unusually low policy rates continues to provide strong support to asset prices of nearly all stripes in most regions of the world. Until signs emerge of a change in that environment, we recommend that investors maintain their allocations to risky assets. All good things come to an end, and this unusually friendly environment for financial assets will too, probably in the first half of 2010. Ironically, the signal could well be a confirmation of above-trend economic growth in the US the last shoe to drop in the global recovery story. We believe contrary to the consensus that the US economy has shifted to a 4-5% GDP range for this quarter and next, and that the labor market will generate job growth and establish a peak in the unemployment rate by the end of the first quarter. Such a development would likely generate concerns that the Fed will soon begin to remove its extraordinarily accommodative stance. History suggests that this would interrupt the steady rise in asset prices and produce a market correction. We look for the biggest impacts to be on money market rates (up), the dollar (up) and gold prices (down). That said, any sign of change in the enormously supportive environment is likely to trigger a broad-based correction (just as the lift to asset prices has been broad based), and the equity and credit markets will not be immune. But we do not see the onset of Fed tightening as triggering a bear market in either sector. Valuations are not extreme, and it will be a long time before Fed policy is even remotely restrictive. This publication strives to serve you our clients by providing objective in-depth analysis across all asset classes and regions. We sincerely hope that it helps you make informed investment decisions.
10 December 2009