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O N T H L Y

Political Report
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O mp I L a T I O N

Volume 10, Issue 4 April 2014

Tax Time
At the beginning of each year, a handful of pollsters ask about priorities for the President and Congress. We show here the top issues in each poll and where taxes (described in different ways) ranked. None of the various descriptions of taxes ranked in the top tier of issues people wanted President Obama and Congress to address. In Gallups March 2014 question (not shown here) about the most important problem facing the country today, 1 percent volunteered taxes. The top response was unemployment/jobs, volunteered by 19 percent, followed by dissatisfaction with Washington (18 percent).
Pew NBC/WSJ Top priority for President Absolute priority for the Obama and Congress President and Congress Strengthening the Creating jobs 91% nations economy 80% Reforming the nations Closing corporate tax system 55 tax loopholes 59 (Ninth of 20 issues) (Fifth of 15 issues)

Gallup Quinnipiac (RV) Extremely/very important Most important priority for that the President and President Obama and Congress Congress deal with it The economy 89% Economy 39% Taxes 62 Taxes 4 (Ninth of 19 issues) (Fourth of 6 issues) Q: Id like to ask you about priorities for President Obama and Congress this year. As I read from a list, tell me if you think each should be a top priority, important but lower priority, not too important, or should it not be done. First, should _______ be a top priority, important but lower priority, not too important, or should it not be done? What about . . . ? (Pew, January 2014) Q: Now thinking about something slightly different . . . As President Obama prepares to deliver his State of the Union address, there are many important issues facing the country. Im going to list some of these issues. Recognizing that all these issues may be important but that not every single one can be a top priority for the President and Congress, for each one please tell me whether you think it should be an absolute priority for the Obama administration and this years Congress, it is something that can be delayed until next year, or something that you think the Obama administration and Congress should not pursue. (NBC News/Wall Street Journal, January 2014) Q: Next, how important is it that the president and Congress deal with the following issues in the next year? (Gallup, January 2014) Q: Which of the following do you think should be the most important priority for President Obama and Congress in 2014 . . . ? (Quinnipiac, January 2014)

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Are We Overtaxed?
If taxes arent a top priority, does that mean people are relatively satised with the taxes they pay? In one of the longest trends we have, more people in a number of recent polls have said that the federal incomes taxes they themselves pay are about right rather than too high. This is a relatively recent development as the trend here shows. A January 2014 Gallup question nds that a third are very dissatised with the amount Americans pay in federal taxes and another 28 percent are somewhat dissatised.
Q: Do you consider the amount of federal income tax you have to pay as too high, about right, or too low?
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Too low
1947 1949 1951 1953 1955 1957 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Too high

50% 45% About right

2%

Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of April 2013.

Q: Next, wed like to know how you feel about the state of the nation in each of the following areas. For each one, please say whether you are . . . ? The amount Americans pay in federal taxes Very satised 5% Somewhat satised 33 Somewhat dissatised 28 Very dissatised 32
Source: The Gallup Organization, January 2014.

Of those who were dissatised (60 percent), 10 percent wanted taxes increased, 67 percent wanted them decreased, and 23 percent wanted them to remain the same.

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Do Upper, Middle, and Low Income People Pay Their Fair Share?
Every year since 1992, the Gallup Organization has asked people whether upper-income, middle-income, and lowerincome people pay their fair share in taxes. Around 6 in 10 Americans believe that upper-income people pay too little in taxes, though this is down from 77 percent in 1992. A slight majority think that middle-income people pay their fair share in taxes, and 4 in ten say they pay too much. Perhaps most surprisingly, about 2 in 10 Americans believe that lower-income people pay too little in taxes, up from 8 percent in 1992 (see next page). Most of this increase has occurred since the start of the recession in 2008.
Q: As I read off some different groups, please tell me if you think they are paying their fair share in federal taxes, paying too much, or paying 90 too little
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 26% Too much in taxes

Responses about Upper-Income People

Paying too little in taxes 61%

Fair share

11%

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Responses about Lower-Income People

Paying too much in taxes

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40 Fair share

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Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of April 2013.

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Taxes and the Middle Class

Most Americans consider themselves part of the middle class, and so it is not surprising that only 3 percent of Americans feel that middle-income people pay too little in taxes. Pollsters ask about President Obamas handling of taxes only occasionally. We show the most recent rating we have from Gallup and compare it to his overall rating at the same point in time. The ratings move in tandem.
Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of April 2013.
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
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Responses about Middle-Income People

Paying too much in taxes 53%

Fair share

42%

Too little in taxes 3%

President Obamas Handling of Taxes

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling taxes? Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
60 Approve of President Obama's handling of his job as President

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44% 40 Approve of President Obama's handling of taxes 30 36%

20

Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of August 2013.

In a March 2014 Battleground poll (conducted by the bipartisan team of Lake Research Partners (D) and The Tarrance Group (R) with George Washington University), 42 percent approved of how President Obama was handling taxes, and 51 percent disapproved. His overall job approval rating was 44 percent approve and 53 percent disapprove. The sample was registered likely voters.

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Party Trust on Taxes

Since 1990, ABC News and the Washington Post have asked Americans which party they trust to do a better job handling taxes, and the long trend reveals that taxes are an issue on which neither party has a distinct edge over the other. Each party has had as much as a 14-point advantage at different points: Republicans led Democrats by that margin in April 2001, while Democrats led Republicans by the same number of percentage points in May 2006. Today, the parties are almost evenly divided, with 42 percent saying Democrats would do a better job handling taxes and 41 percent saying Republicans would.
Q: Which political party, the Democrats or the Republicans, do you trust to do a better job handling taxes?
60 Trust Republicans to do a better job handling taxes 42% 41% Trust Democrats

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Note: In the October 1995, September 1999, and April 2001 askings, the question asked about cutting taxes. In all other askings prior to 2001, the questions asked about holding taxes down. In the new March 2014 Battleground poll (conducted by the partisan team of Lake Research Partners (D) and The Tarrance Group (R) with George Washington University), 47 percent said they had more condence in the Republican Party on taxes and 44 percent had more condence in the Democratic Party. The sample was registered likely voters. Source: ABC News/Washington Post, latest that of March 2014.

Q: Out of every dollar the federal government collects in taxes, how many cents do you think are wasted? Mean Mar. 2012 Jan. 2013 Sep. 2013
Source: Reason-Rupe, latest that of September 2013.

$0.56 $0.47 $0.60

AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS Karlyn Bowman, Senior Fellow; Norman Ornstein, Resident Scholar; Michael Barone, Resident Fellow. Editor: Jennifer Marsico, Senior Research Associate; Interns: Madeline Glista, Hannah Wasco.

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Millennials on the Environment and Global Warming

Fewer Millennials than members of other generations identify strongly with the environmentalist label, but that doesnt mean that they are less committed to a clean and healthful environment. Perhaps they just see the issue as less urgent. As the line graph on the next page shows, young people appear especially concerned about another kind of green: making a lot of money.
Q: Next, Im going to read you some words and phrases and ask you to rate how well each describes you. Please use a scale from 1 to 10, where 10 represents a description that is perfect for you, and 1 represents a description that is totally wrong for you. First, on this scale of 1 to 10, how well does . . . Millennials (ages 1833) Gen Xers (3449) Baby boomers (5068) Silent generation (6986) Millennials Gen Xers Baby boomers Silent generation Points 8-10 where 10 is a perfect description for you A supporter of gay rights 51% 37 33 32 A religious person 36% 52 55 61 An environmentalist 32% 42 42 44 A patriotic person 49% 64 75 81

Source: Pew Research Center, February 2014.

Objectives Considered Essential or Very Important among College Freshmen 1.  Being very well-off nancially (82%) 2. Raising a family (73%) 3. Helping others who are in difculty (72%) 4. Becoming an authority in my eld (61%) 5.  Obtaining recognition from my colleagues for contributions to my special eld (59%) 6.  Improving my understanding of other countries and cultures (50%) 7. Developing a meaningful philosophy of life (45%) 8. Inuencing social values (43%) 9. Becoming successful in a business of my own (41%) 10.  Adopting green practices to protect the environment (39%) 11. Becoming a community leader (37%) 12. Keeping up to date with political affairs (36%) Helping to promote racial understanding (36%) 14. Participating in a community action program (30%) 15.  Becoming involved in programs to clean up the environment (25%) Making theoretical contributions to science (25%) 17. Inuencing the political structure (22%) 18.  Becoming accomplished in one of the performing arts (acting, dancing, etc.) (16%) Writing original works (poems, novels, etc.) (16%) 20.  Creating artistic works (painting, sculpture, etc.) (15%)

Note: Asked of college freshmen. Source: Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA, latest that of 2013.

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90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

What kind of Green is Most Important to Millennials?

82%

Being very well off financially

Adopting "green" practices to protect the environment Becoming involved in programs to clean up the environment 39%

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Note: Asked of college freshmen. Source: Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA, latest that of 2013.

The Environment vs. the Economy

Most surveys show that Millennials are deeply concerned about the current economic climate. When asked however about whether protection of the environment should be given priority over economic growth, they are the most environmentally conscious age group. We suspect that they, like most people, want both economic growth and a clean environment. Although four in ten say they believe global warming will pose a serious threat to them in their lifetimes, they, like the population as a whole, do not see it as an urgent priority. Fifty-ve percent of 18-29 year olds support building the Keystone XL pipeline (see next page).
Q: Thinking about national issues for a moment, which issue concerns you the most? 1829 year olds General economic issues (top response) Energy 1 Environment 1 21%

Note: In the spring 2013 IOP survey, 1 percent mentioned the energy and 1 percent the environment. Twenty-nine percent mentioned general economic concerns. Source: Institute of Politics, Harvard, OctoberNovember 2013.

Q: How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements . . . ? Government should do more to curb climate change, even at the expense of economic growth Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree 1829 years 29% 45 26

Source: Institute of Politics, Harvard University, MarchApril 2013.

2013

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Q: With which of these statements about the environment do you agree most . . . ? Protection of the environment should be given priority even at the risk of curbing economic growth 60% 1829 years 52 3049 49 5064 39 65+
Source: The Gallup Organization, March 2014.

Economic growth should be given priority even if the environment suffers to some extent 30% 41 41 50

Global Warming
Q: Do you think . . . ? Global warming will pose a serious threat to you and your way of life in your lifetime 1829 years 43% 3049 42 5064 37 65+ 18
Source: The Gallup Organization, March 2014.

Will not 57% 57 63 82

American Oil Production

Q: Do you . . . ? Favor building the Keystone XL pipeline that would transport oil from Canadas oil sands region through the Midwest to reneries in Texas 1829 years 55% 3049 59 5064 65 65+ 68
Source: Pew Research Center, FebruaryMarch 2014.

Q: Please indicate whether you agree or disagree with each of the statements below . . . North American oil production is growing to levels that experts say in a few years the United States will no longer have to rely on supplies from outside the continent American companies are currently only allowed to export crude oil to Canada, and no other countries The United States is now one of the worlds biggest exporters of gasoline Agree Disagree Dont know

43% 17 27

22% 24 28

36% 58 45

(Continued on the next page)

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(Continued from the previous page)

Q: There is in fact a boom in oil production in the US, and experts believe that soon the US will no longer have to rely on supplies from outside the continent. Who or what do you believe is responsible for this boom in oil production? Dont know Oil companies Geologists and scientists President Barack Obama President George W. Bush Other 32% 28 18 9 8 5

Note: This is an online survey. In a separate question in the same poll, 7 percent of Americans said they know a great deal about American oil production. Twenty-one percent said they know a fair amount, 46 percent a little bit, and 26 percent said they know nothing at all about it. Source: Ipsos for Thomson Reuters, March 2014.

Pollpourri March Madness

The National Labor Relations Board recently ruled that college athletes are employees and therefore should be allowed to unionize. This decision has raised other questionsamong them, whether these athletes should be paid. Around 65 percent in several recent polls say student athletes should not be paid. Fifteen percent of those surveyed by HBO Real Sports/ Marist said they planned to ll out March Madness brackets. Those with a college education were far more likely than those without to give this response (26 to 7 percent) and men were more likely to do so than women (23 and 7 percent, respectively).
Q: Top college and university mens football and basketball programs bring in a lot of money to their schools from television, merchandising, endorsements, and alumni support. Do you think student athletes in these programs . . . ? Student athletes should be paid for the hours they are required to spend practicing, travelling and playing They should not be paid given the value of their athletic scholarships and a chance to earn a college degree

29%

67

Note: A late February-early March ABC News poll showed that 33 percent supported paying salaries to college athletes beyond any scholarships they receive, while 64 percent were opposed. Source: HBO Real Sports/Marist, March 2014.

Q: Some people say that since college football and basketball is a multi-billion dollar industry in America today, NCAA athletes should be paid for their efforts. Other people say that the opportunity to receive an education and get the exposure to win a major professional contract is compensation enough and NCAA athletes should not be paid. Which statement comes closest to your own view? NCAA student athletes should be paid Should not be paid 1829 year olds 30% 65

Source: Institute of Politics, Harvard University, December 2013.

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