Teachers: Joseph Brass Standard: HS.S-CP.1.

. Describe events as subsets of a sample space using characteristics of the outcomes, or as unions, intersections, or complements of other events. HS.S-MD.5. Weigh the possible outcomes of a decision by assigning probabilities to payoff values and finding expected values. HS.S-MD.6. Use probabilities to make fair decisions HS.S-MD.7. Analyze decisions and strategies using probability concepts. Objective (Explicit): At the conclusion of the lesson students will be able to: Find theoretical and empirical probabilities. Compare theoretical and empirical probabilities Use probability to make fair decisions. Sub-objectives Prior Knowledge: This lesson will be completed at the conclusion of our probability unit. Therefore students will already have the knowledge necessary to: Calculate Theoretical and Empirical probability Count the elements of a set Successfully apply The Fundamental Counting Principle Identify Independent and Dependent events Calculate probabilities of Independent events. Vocabulary (Knowledge): Sample Space Simulation Favorable Outcome Event Probability Theoretical Probability Odds Experimental Probability Independent Events Dependent Events

Inquiry Subject: Algebra I

Skill: In order to calculate Theoretical and Empirical Probability, students will first have to find the number of favorable events as well as the total number of possible outcomes. Once students have found both of those values they will refer to the following equation:

Number _ Of _ Favorable _ Outcomes Number _ Of _ Possible _ Outcomes

In order to compare theoretical and empirical probabilities students will first have to calculate theoretical probability using the equation above. Then students will carry out an experiment, or simulation, in which they will be asked to calculate the same probability, however, they will use the results of their simulation to calculate the empirical probability. Once students have calculated both empirical and theoretical probability they can compare the two values and decide whether or not the theoretical probability holds true. Finally, in order to use probability to make fair decisions, students will first have to calculate the probability of the given event. Once the students have calculated the probability they will analyze their results and use the information to make an educated decision on how to proceed.

Meaningful/Relevant for Students: The great thing about probability is that there are infinite real world applications. Probability is an application of ratios that compares the number of favorable outcomes to the total number of possible outcomes. Two applications of probability in everyday life are risk assessment and quality control. In quality control, manufacturers use experimental probability to predict the percentage of defective products that will be produced. In risk assessment, statisticians determine the probability of an event occurring and the consequences of its occurrence as a first step in a process called risk assessment. Evidence of Mastery (Measurable) (includes Exemplar Student Response): Students will be able to use the knowledge learned from the explore and explain sections of the lesson to complete an assignment, which will include multiple probability word problems. This will serve as students exit ticket and final check for understanding. Engage (Make content and learning relevant to real life and connect to student interest) Students will walk into the classroom and see the daily objective as well as content standard we will be looking to master throughout todays lesson clearly listed on the board. This will give students an idea of what we will be looking to accomplish in todays lesson. This lesson will really be introduced at the conclusion of the class prior to this lesson. The lesson before we will be covering simulations. After students are introduced to the concept and have the opportunity to apply what they have learned I will ask them to complete an experiment for homework. Students task will be to go home and flip a coin 50 times. I will ask the question: Every time I flip a coin, I have a 50/50 chance of landing on heads or tails. So if I flip a coin 50 times, I should get 25 heads and 25 tails, right? This kicks off a discussion about theoretical probability, which I would the ask students to test. For homework each student will flip a coin 50 times and tally how many times heads and tails comes up. When students enter the classroom the following day I will have desks arranged in groups of two, I will assign groups, and they will work together to complete a warm-up that discussing their findings from the experiment. After each group has completed the warm-up I we have a class discussion where I ask several groups to share their findings. This will lead back into our discussion comparing theoretical and experimental probability, and will serve as a foundation for the activity we will be working on today. After several groups have had the opportunity to share I will introduce real life applications of probability and introduce the daily objectives. From there I will ask students if they believe we could use our knowledge of probability to give us an advantage in winning the grand prize in a game show such as Deal or No Deal. Explore Teacher Will: Student Will: Introduce the game Deal or No Deal. Fill out their Deal or No Deal Worksheet as we move between the rounds of the game. Explain the rules of the game and how we will be using probability to At the conclusion of each round students will be make educated decisions. ask to calculate the probability of having a suitcase with a higher cash value then the bank Set clear expectations for students. offer. Distribute Deal or No Deal Using the probability that they calculate at the worksheet and model for students end of each round, decide whether they want to how they should be filling out the accept the bank offer and take the deal, or refuse worksheet. the deal and continue playing. Once the game begins I will pull Popsicle sticks containing students name to determine who gets the pick which briefcase to open up each round.

Explain

At the end of each round I will pretend to receive a phone call or text message from the bank with the buy out offer for the brief case. If students get off track the teacher will ask prompting questions to get them back on the right track. Observe student work and collect student comments/observations that might be helpful in the explain section. Co-Teaching Strategy/Differentiation This is a great real life applications that will help students understand the importance probability plays in everyday life. Including a popular game show activity will keep the students engaged and interested throughout the entire lesson. Students names will be selected by drawing Popsicle sticks, which will serve as a way to manage student behavior and keep the game running smooth and organized. Teacher Will: Student Will: Ask students to complete a quick Independently complete a quick write, which write explaining how they used asks them to explain what they discovered in probability to decide whether or not their own words throughout the activity. to take the deal, and if they believe Once each student has completed their quick that probability was useful in this write they will turn to their peer next to them situation. and take part in a think-pair-share activity. Once students have completed their After each group has had an opportunity to quick write I will ask them to take discuss their findings, select groups will be part in a think-pair-share activity asked to share their findings with the rest of the where they turn to their peer next to class. them (students will have already Strive to make connections between the activity been placed in cooperative learning and the content we have been discussing in groups of two) and share with each class, being sure to ask for clarification when other their findings. necessary. I will then select a few groups to share their findings with the class. After several groups shared their findings I will connect what we learned throughout the activity back to the everyday applications of experimental and theoretical probability. Co-Teaching Strategy/Differentiation Quick write is a literary strategy, which will require students to use higher level thinking skills. Students must use their findings from the activity to explain why they think they reached particular outcomes of conclusions in their own words. Think-pair-share is a great strategy, which promotes affective small group discussions. It is often intimidating for some students to share their findings with a large class because they are afraid to be wrong. These small group discussions take away that intimidation factor and force students to use higher level thinking skills to draw conclusions. The pairs that students will be placed in will be cooperative learning groups that I assigned based on academic performance, race, gender, behavior, etc. Establishing groups that will work affectively together is key for success throughout this lesson.

Elaborate

Teacher Will: Student Will: Ask students if they believe that Actively participate in class discussions, sharing experimental probability and their views on experimental and theoretical theoretical probability always result probability. in the same value. Once the discussion has concluded students will independently work to complete a set of Once we have discussed this idea a little further I will distribute a set of probability word problems. probability word problems that These problems will ask students to use skills students will be asked to complete developed throughout todays lesson and apply independently. them to other real world applications. These word problems will require Students should ask questions when students to use the skills developed clarification is necessary. throughout todays lesson and apply them to other real world applications. Co-Teaching Strategy/Differentiation This section asks students to use knowledge gained throughout todays lesson and apply them to other real world situations. This requires students to use higher level thinking skills to complete a task. The set of word problems will serve as students exit tickets, which is a great way for me to check individually each students level of mastery for the day.

Evaluate For this lessons evaluation, the students will be asked to complete a set of probability word problems, which will test their level of mastery of the content. This will serve as students exit tickets for the day, or for those students who do not finish they will be asked to complete the assignment for homework. With a few minutes left in class I will regain students attention and go through the daily objectives with them ensuring that we accomplished our goals for the day. I will ask volunteer students to explain how we accomplished each objective and close out the lesson. * Attached are rules of the game show Deal or No Deal and an explanation of how the game will be applied throughout todays lesson.

Deal or No Deal Probability Game

Building Background
The first thing I did was introduce probability the day before the game. I started with a question: "Every time I flip a coin, I have a 50/50 chance of landing on heads or tails. So if I flip it 50 times, I should get 25 heads and 25 tails, right?" This kicks off a discussion about theoretical probability, which we then tested. Students were asked to complete an experiment for homework where they flipped a coin 50 times and tallied heads and tails. The next day, or introduction to todays lesson, we will discuss their findings and compare their data (experimental probability) to our theoretical probability. This would provide a foundation for our game in todays lesson.

Adapting the Game

The card game has a 4 decks: Briefcase cards are numbered 1-26 Round cards show how many briefcases to open each round Bank offer cards to provide a random offer each round Cash cards to hide under the Briefcase cards The game play is simple: Take one briefcase to hold onto which could be yours at the end of the game. Each round, players open a diminishing number of briefcases, starting with six in Round One and ending with one in Round Nine. After the briefcases are opened, the bank makes an offer, and the player can accept it (deal) and the game is over, or reject it (no deal) and keep playing. If the player rejects all bank offers, they will be left with their briefcase and one other, and choose which they will open. Whatever they choose is the amount they win. I only needed to add students finding the probability of getting a better deal if they rejected the bank offer. So I created a simple graphic organizer combining the enclosed game sheets and a table that looked like this:

Students would write in the results of each round, like so: Roun d 1 Bank Offer $100,000 # of briefcases left with more money than Bank Offer 5 Probability of winning more than Bank Offer 5/20 = .25 = 25% Deal or No Deal? No Deal

Playing the Game

After picking a student to start us off by claiming "our" case, I will draw popsicle sticks with students names to decide who will choose the briefcases to open each round. When it came time for the bank offer, I will pretend to get calls and text messages from the bank on my cell phone. Students will figure out the probability, fill in the graphic organizer like the example above, and decide whether to take the deal. If there are mixed views on whether to take the deal or not we will have a class vote.