Pakistan Weekly Update

StockSmart

AKD Equity Research / Pakistan

28 March 2014

AKD Research

Weekly Review

research@akdsecurities.net
009221 111 253 111

After initial weakness which was led by profit taking by foreign institution, particularly in

Indices
KSE-100
KSE-30
This week 27,116.13 19,200.54
Last week 26,765.49 18,990.38
Change
1.31%
1.11%

OGDC and MCB, the market posted recovery with the KSE-100 Index closing for the
week at 27,116 points, up by 1.3%WoW. However, volumes stuttered as the average
daily traded volume declined by 18.5%WoW to 154mn shares. Major news flow during
the week included 1) Disbursement of US$556mn from the IMF, 2) World Bank to provide

Indices
KMI-30
Allshare
This week 44,488.95 20,379.22
Last week 44,606.35 20,026.10
Change
-0.26%
1.76%

Pakistan with US$1.7bn loan for different energy and infrastructure projects including the
Dasu Hydro Power Project, 3) significant debt of PkR530bn raised through the PIB auction as against a target of PkR60bn and 4) PPL discovery 11.2mmcfd tight gas in
Naushahro Firoz block (PPL has 90% stake in the block). Within the AKD Universe, ma-

(+12.7%WoW) while major losers during the week included SNGP (-7.6%WoW), SSGC (5.1%WoW) and NML (-4.5%WoW).

Index & Volume Chart

Universe Gainers & Losers

5.0%

100,000

26,400

1.0%

44.86

50,000

26,200

3.0%

26,000

7.0%

SMBL

37.89

EFERT

27.36

TRG

27.29
ReadyVolume(LHS)

28Mar

9.0%

26,800
26,600

27Mar

BOP

60.12

26,822

26Mar

26,391

25Mar

FABL

150,000

27,000

KSE100Index(RHS)

11.0%
SSGC

Volum e (m n)

26,670

24Mar

Sym bol

27,116

200,000

Top-5 Volum e Leaders

13.0%

SNGP

27,200

NCL

27,165

250,000

17.0%

NML

27,400

EPCL

(Index)

300,000

DGKC

(Shrs'000)

HMB

Avg. Daily Turnover ('mn shares)

This week
154.00
Last week
188.87
Change
-18.46%

jor gainers during the week were HBL(+15.7%WoW), ABL (+14.9%WoW) and UBL

ABL

US$bn
67.05
65.80
1.89%

UBL

PkRbn
6,573.10
6,460.62
1.74%

HBL

Mkt Cap.
This week
Last week
Change

Source: KSE & AKD Research

(Index)
28,000

(mn)
700

26,700

600

25,400

500

24,100

400

22,800

300

20,200

21,500
18,900

200

17,600

100

16,300
15,000

Volume (LHS)

Investors are likely to focus on the CPI reading next week to gauge any potential change
in SBPs stance on interest rate going forward. The textile sector, particularly spinning
heavy players are likely to stay under pressure in strong PkR scenario. While banks are
expected to perform well in the aftermath of better banking spreads.

Mar-14

Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14

Mar-13

Outlook

KSE- 100 Index

Important disclosures including investment banking relationships and analyst certification at end of this report. AKD Securities does and seeks to do business with companies

Important disclosures covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investors
should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

AKD SECURITIES
Member: Karachi Stock Exchange

Find AKD research on Bloomberg

(AKDS<GO>), firstcall.com
and Reuters Knowledge

Copyright2014 AKD Securities Limited. All rights reserved. The information provided on this document is not intended
for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be
contrary to law or regulation or which would subject AKD Securities or its affiliates to any registration requirement within
such jurisdiction or country. Neither the information, nor any opinion contained in this document constitutes a solicitation
or offer by AKD Securities or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities or provide any investment advice or service. AKD
Securities does not warrant the accuracy of the information provided herein.

www.akdsecurities.net

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

28 March 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

This Weeks Daily Reports

Mar 28, 2014

ICI_Growthintactbutoverpriced,(AKDDaily,March28,2014)

27,300
27,275
27,250
27,225
27,200
27,175
27,150
27,125
27,100
16:30

15:46

15:02

14:18

13:35

12:53

12:10

11:26

9:59

10:43

9:15

27,075

Mar 27, 2014

27,201
27,162
27,123
27,084

ICIpostedastrongresultin1HFY14reportingearningsofPkR835mn(EPS:PkR9.04),up
by26%YoYdespitearelativelysubdued4%YoYgrowthinthetoplinetoPkR18,541mn.
The growth in earnings was driven primarily by sharp improvement in profitability of
theSodaAshdivisionduetoabetterenergymixduring1HFY14.Goingforward,earn
ingsgrowthislikelytobedrivenbyheavierrelianceoncoalasthecoalboilersforthe
Soda Ash division have already come online. Whereas coal boilers in the PSF division
areexpectedtocomeonlineby1HFY14.Furthergrowthmaybedrivenbyaggressive
expansionintheLifeSciencesbusinesswherethecompanyhassignedadealwithUni
brands(Pvt.)Ltdfortheimportandmarketingoftheirproducts.Atcurrentlevels,the
scripistradingatFY14FandFY15FP/Eof15.48xand10.57x,respectively.Webelieve
thatstronggrowthinearningsisoverlypricedinthemarketasthestockoffersadown
sideof9.6%toourupwardrevisedDec14TPof311/share.Reduce!
FertilizerNumbers_2MCY14ureasalesup6.6%,(AKDDaily,March27,2014)

27,045
27,006
26,967
26,928
26,889
14:38

14:35

15:30

13:47

13:57

12:55

12:04

11:13

9:30

10:21

26,850

Mar 26, 2014

26,844
26,826
26,808
26,790
26,772
26,754
26,736
26,718
15:13

13:19

12:41

12:03

11:25

10:46

9:30

10:08

26,700

Mar 25, 2014

26,688

FAsperthelatestnumbersreleasedbyNationalFertilizerDevelopmentCenter(NFDC),
ureasalesfor2MCY14haveclockedinat997.6ktonsasagainst936.1ktonssoldinthe
sameperiodlastyear,depictinggrowthof6.6%YoY.AsforDAP,thephosphatebased
fertilizers offtake during the same period grew by impressive 67.4%YoY and was re
corded at 128.1k tons versus 76.5k tons in the corresponding period previous year.
Blessedwiththeluxurytooperatebothitsplants,EngroFertilizers(EFERT)remained
theonlymajorplayertopostimpressiveofftakegrowth(62.5%YoY)withureasalesof
335.7ktons.ApartfromEFERT,FATIMAremainedtheonlyothermajormanufacturer
withpositiveureaofftakegrowth.Cumulativelocalureaofftakewasrealizedat743.4k
tons, up 13.6%YoY. With ample availability of locally manufactured urea, sales of im
portedureafalteredby9.7%YoYto254.1ktonsintheaforementionedperiod.During
theperiodunderreview,sectorsDAPsalespostedimpressivefiguresaswell,growing
by67.4%YoYto128.1ktonsasagainst76.5ktonssoldduringthesameperiodlastyear.
WebelievehigherDAPsalescanbeduetopotentialpriceincreasegoingforward.On
individualbasis,DAPsalesofFFBLcameoffby15.2%YoYto37.2ktonsfollowinglower
production due to gas curtailment. EFERTs DAP offtake grew by 112.6%YoY to 37.8k
tonsduringtheperiodunderreview.
PakistanEconomy_Mar14CPIprojectedat8.2%YoY,(AKDDaily,March26,2014)

26,657
26,626
26,595
26,564
26,533
26,502
26,471
15:27

14:42

13:58

13:13

12:29

11:44

11:00

9:30

10:15

26,440

Mar 24, 2014

26,679
26,641
26,603
26,565
26,527
26,489
26,451
26,413
15:29

14:38

13:46

12:55

12:04

11:13

9:30

10:22

26,375

With the SBP maintaining the DR at 10% in the last MPS but expectations persisting
thatinterestratesmaycomeoffoverthenext3m6m,inflationdataislikelytoretain
investorattention.Inthisregard,weexpectMar'14CPItoclockinat8.2%YoY,which
impliesasequentialincreaseof0.65%MoM.ThisiscorroboratedbytheSPItrendwhich
hasdepicteda2%MoMincrease.Thesequentialincreaseinpricepressuresisexpected
to arise on the back of higher food inflation and clothing & footwear even as other
heavyweightsintheCPIbasketareexpectedtoremainflat.Asaresult,the9MFY14CPI
averageshouldclockinat8.6%YoY,leadinguptoaprojectedFY14CPIaverageof8.5%
YoY.Consideringthepositiverealinterestratestandsat~1.5%,weseeinterestrates
coming off in the next MPS particularly as: 1) PkRUS$ has stabilized with 1.7%FYTD
depreciation, 2) successful approval of the second EFF tranche of US$555mn, and 3)
furtherbuildup in FX reserves (currently at US$9.65bn, implying import cover of 2.75
months). Within this backdrop, ENGRO, NML and DGKC can potentially outperform.
Furthermore, with new regulatory directives entailing NIMs are largely shielded from
interest rate fluctuations, we would take any weakness in Banks to build positions in
namessuchasBAFLandNBP.

Source:KSE&AKDResearch

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

28 March 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

This Weeks Daily Reports

Feb'14TextileExports,(AKDDaily,March25,2014)
AccordingtodetailsreleasedbythePakistanBureauofStatistics(PBS),textileexports
forthemonthofFeb14increasedby3%MoMtoUS$1.131bnbringing8MFY14textile
exportstoUS$9.155bn,up8.28%YoY.ThebenefitofGSPPlusstatusisyettomaterial
ize.Thisisevidentfromthesequentialdeclineinexportsofhighervalueaddedprod
ucts.WebelievebenefitsoftheEUGSPPlusstatuswillcommencefrom4QFY14asit
willtakesometimetobreakawaythemarketshareofothertextilemanufacturerse.g.
Bangladesh that already have duty free access. Though we believe the realized value
forexporterwillfallinPkRtermsduetosharpappreciationofthePkRweexpectthe
impacttobefrontendloadedasmarginsarelikelytorationalizeinthelongrun.We
maintainourlikingforNMLandhighlightthisasanopportunitytobuildfreshpositions
inthestock.NMLoffersanupsideof13%fromcurrentlevelstoourTPofPkR137.5/
share.
PakistanMarket_TheOGDCconundrum,(AKDDaily,March24,2014)
WiththePkRappreciatingby7.2%againsttheUS$fromitsCYTDbottom,therewasan
element of concern thatcurrency gains could tempt foreign investors to book profits
whereFriday'snetsellofUS$4.7mn(primarilyinOil&Gassector;likelyOGDCwhich
cameoffby4.4%)wasthehighestinasingledayinthiscalendaryear.WithFranklin
Templetonlookingtoliquidateasmallfund(173ksharesofOGDC;266ksharesofMCB
asofSep13)coupledwithlikelyprofittakinginitslargerAsiafund,webelievepanic
(unjustified) may have ensued even for local shareholders. That said, OGDC's recent
underperformancemayalsobeafunctionofitsplannedsecondaryoffering(GDR/local
SPO)onconcernsoverconsequentsupplydemandmismatch.Whilethismaykeepalid
on OGDC's nearterm share price performance, a potential local SPO may provide an
attractiveentrypoint/opportunitytoloweraverageholdingcost.Withthecompany's
fundamentals unchanged, we maintain our Buy stance based on our target price of
PkR302/share.

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

28 March 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

Regional Valuations (2014)

Major World Indices Performance

EPSGrowth
Pakistan
25%
Indonesia
13%
Malaysia
18%
Philippines
9%
Vitenam
15%
India
17%
China
15%

PE(x)
8.37
11.50
12.69
14.97
15.32
14.13
6.84

Country

BloombergCode

%
Pakistan
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Vitenam
India
China

DivdYld
5.80
2.32
3.37
2.46
n.a
1.77
4.01

Pakistan
Srilanka
Thailand
Jakarta
Malaysia
Philippines
Vietnam
HongKong
Singapore
Brazil
Russia
India
China
S&P
DJIA
NASDAQComposite
UK
German
Qatar
AbuDhabi
Dubai
Kuwait
Oman
SaudiArabia
MSCIEM
MSCIFM

KSE100Index
CSEALLIndex
SETIndex
JCIIndex
FBMKLCIIndex
PCOMPIndex
VNINDEXIndex
HSIIndex
FSSTIIndex
IBXIndex
RTSSTDIndex
SENSEXIndex
SHCOMPIndex
SPXIndex
INDUIndex
CCMPIndex
UKXIndex
DAXIndex
DSMIndex
ADSMIIndex
DFMGIIndex
KWSEIDXIndex
MSM30Index
SASEIDXIndex
MXEFIndex
MXFMIndex

ROE
21.55
18.68
13.47
14.85
17.85
16.07
14.25

Source: Bloomberg & AKD Universe

28Feb14

21Feb14

25,783
5,940
1,325
4,620
1,836
6,425
586
22,837
3,111
19,497
9,741
21,120
2,056
1,859
16,322
4,308
6,810
9,692
11,772
4,959
4,220
7,693
7,114
9,107
966
617

25,603
5,937
1,304
4,646
1,831
6,308
571
22,568
3,100
19,520
10,035
20,701
2,114
1,836
16,103
4,263
6,838
9,657
11,872
4,915
4,183
7,737
7,167
8,989
959
613

WoW

CYTD

0.70%
2.07%
0.05%
0.47%
1.62%
2.05%
0.56%
8.10%
0.27%
1.68%
1.85%
9.09%
2.79%
16.22%
1.19%
2.01%
0.35%
1.79%
0.12%
8.44%
2.93%
4.28%
2.03%
0.24%
2.72%
2.82%
1.26%
0.60%
1.36%
1.54%
1.05%
3.15%
0.41%
0.90%
0.36%
1.46%
0.85%
13.41%
0.89%
15.58%
0.90%
25.24%
0.58%
1.90%
0.74%
4.09%
1.31%
6.69%
0.75%
3.62%
0.63%
3.81%
Source: Bloomberg

International Major Currencies

SPOT

28Feb14

21Feb14

79.691

80.237

0.546

USD/PkR

104.920

104.952

0.032

0.03%

0.39%

105.0

USD/JPY

101.800

102.510

0.710

0.69%

3.33%

103.0

EUR/USD

1.380

1.375

0.006

0.41%

0.43%

GBP/USD

1.675

1.662

0.013

0.78%

1.14%

AUD/USD

0.892

0.898

0.005

0.59%

0.08%

NZD/USD

0.839

0.828

0.011

1.29%

2.13%

CHF/USD

0.880

0.888

0.007

0.83%

1.41%

CAD/USD

1.106

1.111

0.004

0.40%

4.15%

USD/KRW

1,068

1,072

4.490

0.42%

1.70%

CNY/USD

6.145

6.091

0.054

1.50%
0.88%
Source: Bloomberg

PkR/US$ Trend
109.0

DollarIndex

107.0

101.0

99.0

Mar-14

Feb-14

Dec-13

Oct-13

Aug-13

Jul-13

May-13

Mar-13

97.0

Source: Bloomberg

Chg+/

WoW

CYTD

0.68%

0.43%

Commodities

TRJ-CRB Index

SPOT

Units

28Feb14

21Feb14

WoW

CYTD

305

TRJCRB

Points

302.43

301.58

0.28%

7.95%

300

Nymex(WTI)

US$/bbl.

102.59

102.2

0.38%

4.24%

295

ICEBrent

US$/bbl.

109.3

109.71

0.37%

1.37%

290

N.GasHenryHub

US$/Mmbtu

4.6963

6.2144

24.43%

8.11%

285
280
275

Cotton

USd/Pound

94.05

93.9

0.16%

4.85%

Gold

US$/Tr.Oz

1326.44

1324.28

0.16%

10.02%

Sliver

US$/Tr.Oz

21.225

21.851

2.86%

9.02%
4.01%

Mar-14

Feb-14

Jan-14

Dec-13

Nov-13

Oct-13

Sep-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Jun-13

Apr-13

May-13

Mar-13

270

Source: Bloomberg

Copper

US$/MT

7080

7211

1.82%

Platinum

US$/Oz

1446.63

1429

1.23%

5.64%

Coal

US$/MT

76.15

76.35

0.26%

9.99%

Source: Bloomberg

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

28 March 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

Chart Bank
Earnings Yield vs. T-Bill (12M) Differential

Advance to Decline Ratio

(%)

1.60

12.0

1.50

10.0

1.40

8.0

1.30

6.0

1.20

4.0

FIPI Flows for the week

Mar14

Dec13

Oct13

May13

Mar13

Mar14

Aug13

Jan13

Jun12

Dec11

May11

Oct10

Mar10

0.80
Sep09

(4.0)
Feb09

0.90
Jul08

(2.0)
Dec07

1.00

Jun07

Aug13

1.10

2.0

LIPI Flows for the week

(US$mn)

(US$'000)
4,000

10.00

3,115

3,000

8.00

M.Funds,
(11.11)

Ind.,0.10

2,000
6.00

701

1,000

4.00

(1,000)

2.00

(943)

(2,000)

(3,000)

NBFC,4.70
(2.00)

(4,000)

(4.00)

26Mar 27Mar

28Mar

KSE-100 vs. MSCI-EM & MSCI-FM

Mar14

Feb14

Dec13

MSCIFM

Jul13

Mar14

MSCIEM

Oct13

AKDUniverse

KSE100

75%
65%
55%
45%
35%
25%
15%
5%
5%
15%

Sep13

KSEAllShareIndex

Dec13

Sep13

Jun13

Mar13

55%
49%
43%
37%
31%
25%
19%
13%
7%
1%
5%

May13

AKD Universe vs. KSE-100 Index

Apr13

25Mar

Feb13

24Mar

Others,
(1.33)

Bank/DFI,
(1.83)

Jan13

(5,000)

(4,226)

Co.,(1.43)

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

28 March 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

AKD Universe Valuations

28Mar14
EPS(PkR)
EPSchg(%)
EPSchg(%)ExFinancials
BookValueperShare(PkR)
Payout(%)
Valuations
PricetoEarnings(x)
PricetoBook(x)
PER(x)ExFinancials
P/BVS(x)ExFinancials
PricetoCF(x)
EarningsYield(%)
DividendYield(%)
EV/EBITDA(x)
Profitability
ReturnonEquity(%)
ReturnonAssets(%)
ChginSales(%)
GrossMargin(%)
OperatingMargin(%)
NetMargin(%)

2011A
8.04
24.30
25.15
37.64
52.26

2012A
8.74
8.67
8.76
43.07
50.30

2013A/E
9.55
9.28
16.62
49.25
50.11

2014F
11.91
24.71
28.70
55.27
48.53

2015F
13.65
14.62
15.41
61.63
48.58

12.39
2.65
13.09
3.16
20.50
8.07
4.22
7.74

11.41
2.31
12.04
2.78
25.44
8.77
4.41
6.81

10.44
2.02
10.32
2.36
8.30
9.58
4.80
6.07

8.37
1.80
8.02
2.05
20.17
11.95
5.80
5.31

7.30
1.62
6.95
1.83
11.34
13.70
6.65
4.71

21.37
3.85
17.34
23.41
14.47
11.38

20.29
3.58
17.57
21.77
12.85
10.52

19.40
3.77
5.67
22.90
13.49
10.88

21.55
4.17
12.59
22.45
13.48
12.05

22.15
4.31
10.84
23.02
14.35
12.47

Source: AKD Research

Market PER Chart 2014F

(x)
15

11

Mar-14

Dec-12

Sep-11

Jun-10

Mar-09

Dec-07

Sep-06

Jul-05

Source: AKD Research

Market P/BVS Chart 2014F

(x)
3.5
2.6
1.7

Mar14

Dec12

Sep11

Jun10

Mar09

Dec07

Sep06

Jul05

0.8

Source: AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

28 March 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

AKD Universe Active Coverage Clusters Valuations

Stocks

Symbol

AutomobileandParts
IndusMotors
PakSuzukiMotors
ConstructionandMaterials
DGKhanCement
Chemicals
EngroPolymerChemicals
ICIPakistanLimited
LotteChemicalPakistanLtd.
EngroCorporation
EngroFertilizersLimited
DawoodHerculesLimited
FaujiFert.BinQasimLtd.
FaujiFertilizerCompany
FatimaFertilizer
FoodProducers
EngroFoodsLimited
Oil&Gas
Oil&GasDevelopmentCo.
PakOilfields
PakistanStateOil
Electricity
HubPowerCo.
KotAdduPowerCompany
FixedLineTelecommunication
PakistanTelecommunication
PersonalGoods
NishatMills
Banks
AlliedBankLimited
BankAlFalah
HabibBankLimited
MCBBankLimited
NationalBankofPakistan
UnitedBankLtd

INDU
PSMC

DGKC

EPCL
ICI
LOTCHEM
ENGRO
EFERT
DAWH
FFBL
FFC
FATIMA

EFOODS

OGDC
POL
PSO

HUBC
KAPCO

PTC

NML

ABL
BAFL
HBL
MCB
NBP
UBL

Price

TP

(PkR)

(PkR)

Stance

EPS

(PkR)
12A 13A/E 14F

PE(x)

12A 13A/E

PB(x)

DY(%)

14F 12A13A/E 14F

12A13A/E

14F

396.9 384.29 Neutral 54.7 42.7 49.17.39.38.1 1.81.8 1.68.1 6.36.3

196.5 194.99 Neutral 11.9 22.5 23.016.58.78.5 1.00.9 0.91.3 2.02.5

91.1 106.95 Accumulate 9.4 12.6 12.99.77.37.0 1.20.8 0.81.6 3.33.6

15.6 16.49 Accumulate 0.11.11.1 134.6 14.7 13.6 1.61.5 1.3

346.1 310.52 Reduce 10.57.4 22.232.8 46.5 15.6 3.33.0 2.51.6 0.62.0
7.2 8.53 Accumulate 0.0(0.3) 0.6 n.m n.m 12.2 0.90.9 0.83.5
186.7 196.20 Accumulate 2.6 18.7 22.971.6 10.08.2 2.21.3 1.2
49.1 55.45 Accumulate (2.3) 4.25.6(21.7) 11.68.7 4.02.9 2.2
82.3 71.83 Reduce 2.09.2 13.140.38.96.3 2.0 n.a n.a1.2
42.4 49.33 Accumulate 4.66.06.69.17.16.4 3.12.5 2.5 10.6 13.0 14.7
110.2 138.62
Buy
16.4 15.8 16.46.77.06.7 6.45.8 5.6 14.1 14.5 14.7
31.5 35.09 Accumulate 2.94.15.010.87.86.3 2.32.0 1.76.4 6.46.4

116.8 80.92
Sell
3.40.32.634.5 424.4 44.9 8.97.8 6.7

247.5 302.09
Buy
22.5 21.1 28.911.0 11.78.6 4.03.3 2.72.9 3.34.7
540.8 612.57 Accumulate 50.1 45.8 59.110.8 11.89.1 3.63.7 3.49.7 8.38.5
422.2 345.59 Reduce 36.7 50.8 91.511.58.34.6 2.11.7 1.31.3 1.22.4

52.4 72.19
Buy
7.18.87.07.45.97.5 2.01.8 2.0 11.4 15.3 17.2
59.0 64.00 Accumulate 6.98.48.08.67.17.4 2.22.1 2.1 11.7 12.7 13.1

30.7 29.71 Neutral 2.23.14.213.79.97.3 1.31.3 1.27.39.8

117.3 137.54 Accumulate 10.0 16.6 18.711.77.16.3 1.10.7 0.63.0 3.44.1

97.0 86.99 Reduce 11.4 14.2 11.08.56.88.8 2.01.7 1.66.1 5.76.2

26.9 32.0* Accumulate 3.43.53.88.07.87.1 1.21.1 1.17.4 7.45.6
170.2 149.99 Reduce 17.0 17.1 19.110.09.98.9 1.71.6 1.54.0 4.75.3
250.1 245.48 Neutral 18.8 19.7 20.913.3 12.7 11.9 2.62.4 2.24.3 5.15.3
54.5 59.99 Accumulate 7.32.57.47.5 22.07.4 0.80.7 0.7 11.2 3.7 10.1
163.2 150.03 Reduce 15.6 15.8 16.510.4 10.49.9 2.01.8 1.75.2 5.25.5

*TPforBAFLrisestoPkR33.8/shareuponsuccessfulWaridstakesale

Source: AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

28 March 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

AKD Universe Coverage Clusters Performance

Stocks

Sym bol

Price
28-Mar-14

1M

CYTD

1 Year
High

1 Year
Low

27116.13

5.2

7.4

21.1

51.1

7.3

27104.70

17492.00

AGTL
MTL

207.93
462.80

-24.3
-4.6

-1.5
-3.7

2.6
-4.7

-1.0
-1.2

-2.1
-4.1

273.49
519.58

197.00
433.73

INDU
PSMC

396.89
196.51

11.2
23.5

18.8
34.3

19.8
40.4

34.5
100.3

19.2
27.7

398.10
167.70

282.00
97.29

DGKC
LUCK

91.07
313.14

4.5
-3.9

6.8
5.0

25.8
35.9

33.4
87.5

6.2
4.4

96.43
321.67

61.23
160.97

EPCL
ICI
LOTCHEM
DAWH
EFERT
ENGRO
FATIMA
FFBL
FFC

15.62
346.05
7.21
82.26
58.82
186.69
31.47
42.38
110.19

4.1
15.5
9.7
-1.1
-1.4
-1.1
10.0
-3.2
1.3

17.0
36.5
0.8
46.9
n.a
16.1
10.0
-4.3
-3.2

14.5
93.4
4.5
59.7
n.a
31.7
22.3
11.6
5.5

55.3
154.3
-0.3
58.5
n.a
45.5
46.3
13.0
1.2

16.5
36.8
-1.8
46.6
n.a
17.9
10.2
-3.3
-1.6

16.66
326.31
8.89
85.56
56.85
187.38
30.16
45.42
119.52

9.29
135.37
6.46
37.88
29.66
103.25
21.29
36.90
101.37

EFOODS

116.79

21.0

11.7

9.1

-8.5

11.8

162.22

80.37

46.56

11.9

24.9

69.5

88.7

24.6

74.12

23.57

OGDC
POL
PSO

247.47
540.79
422.20

-5.7
8.3
17.1

-10.4
8.4
27.0

3.4
22.6
55.8

22.2
19.4
108.3

-10.5
8.7
27.1

287.84
539.63
367.10

197.32
428.73
184.67

HUBC
KAPCO

52.41
58.99

-4.1
2.1

-14.1
-3.8

-17.1
-7.6

4.5
11.9

-13.7
-4.5

73.42
68.34

50.13
49.53

PTC

30.69

4.9

4.6

15.0

54.2

7.9

31.70

17.46

NCL
NML

46.40
117.27

-12.9
-11.2

-22.5
-8.9

-19.4
23.7

-4.7
40.4

-22.9
-7.8

68.82
140.79

43.31
69.03

ABL
AKBL
BAFL
HBL
HMB
MCB
MEBL
NBP
UBL

97.03
17.00
26.88
170.15
27.00
250.05
38.34
54.54
163.23

9.7
24.5
-3.4
15.3
11.1
2.3
0.9
-3.7
22.4

7.8
24.0
-1.9
15.7
8.1
-2.0
-1.0
-6.2
22.9

23.8
27.7
22.1
16.6
24.3
-0.7
2.5
5.1
18.4

65.6
9.0
79.4
93.7
76.5
44.0
50.4
39.8
95.5

7.8
21.4
-0.6
12.3
7.7
-2.2
-2.6
-6.1
23.1

94.51
16.15
28.66
181.57
26.16
316.87
40.87
60.01
154.21

55.01
10.76
14.77
88.00
14.61
183.00
24.11
37.66
82.16

KSE-100 Index

Absolute Perform ance (%)

3M
6M
12M

Industrial Engineering
Al-Ghazi Tractor
Millat Tractors
Autom obile and Parts
Indus Motors
Pak Suzuki Motors

Construction and Materials

DG Khan Cement
Lucky Cement
Chem icals
Engro Polymer Chemicals
ICI Pakistan Limited
Lotte Pakistan PTA Limited
Daw ood Hercules
Engro Fertilizers Ltd.
Engro Chemical
Fatima Fertilizer
Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd.
Fauji Fertilizer Company
Food Producers
Engro Foods Limited
Non Life Insurance
Adamjee Insurance

AICL

Oil & Gas

Oil & Gas Development Co.
Pak Oilfields
Pakistan State Oil
Electricity
Hub Pow er Co.
Kot Addu Pow er Company

Fixed Line Telecom m unication

Pakistan Telecommunication
Personal Goods
Nisaht (Chunian) Ltd.
Nishat Mills
Banks
Allied Bank Limited
Askari Bank Limited
Bank AlFalah
Habib Bank Limited
Habib Metropolitan Bank
MCB Bank Limited
Meezan Bank Limited
National Bank of Pakistan
United Bank Ltd

Source: KSE & AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

28 March 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

Economic Snapshot
End Month Data

Units

Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13

Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14

T-bill
3M

9.42

9.41

9.26

8.93

9.00

9.15

9.47

9.63

9.93

9.92

9.91

6M

9.44

9.42

9.16

9.01

9.20

9.35

9.68

9.88

10.02

9.98

9.95

12M

9.46

9.43

9.19

9.03

9.34

9.48

9.81

9.96

10.12

10.05

9.99

PIB 10Y

11.92

11.25

10.86

11.57

11.97

12.28

12.83

12.93

12.90

12.59

12.80

KIBOR 6M

9.58

9.60

9.39

9.08

9.15

9.29

9.55

9.52

10.13

10.14

10.15

Discount rate

9.50

9.50

9.00

9.00

9.00

9.50

9.50

10.00

10.00

10.00

10.00

Headline inflation

5.80

5.10

5.90

8.26

8.55

7.40

9.10

10.90

9.18

7.90

7.90

Core inflation

8.70

8.10

7.80

8.20

8.50

8.70

8.40

8.50

8.20

8.00

7.80

Food inflation

5.50

6.50

7.90

9.20

10.30

7.90

9.80

13.00

9.30

7.20

7.60

Export (PBS)

US$ (mn)

2,130

2,175

2,197

2,095

1,996

2,622

1,864

1,804

2,275

2,061

2,167

Import (PBS)

US$ (mn)

3,909

4,346

3,940

3,814

3,572

3,791

3,281

3,651

3,561

4,137

3,600

Trade Deficit (PBS)

US$ (mn)

Home Remittances

US$ (mn)

1,216

1,186

1,165

1,404

1,233

1,283

1,348

1,131

1,385

n.a

1,210

Current Account

US$ (mn)

(354)

(346)

(163)

46

(575)

(574)

(166)

(572)

285

(464)

164

1,779

2,171

1,743

1,719

1,576

1,169

1,417

1,847

1,286

Inflation

External Indicators

(1,779) (2,171) (1,743) (1,719) (1,576) (1,169) (1,417) (1,847) (1,286) (2,076) (1,433)

Banking Sector
Deposits

PkR (bn)

6,709

6,950

7,316

7,069

7,174

7,125

7,133

7,309

7,529

7,566

7,599

Advances

PkR (bn)

3,857

3,906

3,869

3,788

3,817

3,831

3,921

4,008

4,071

4,127

4,110

Investments

PkR (bn)

3,893

3,942

4,129

3,837

3,708

3,873

3,776

4,035

4,070

4,217

4,443

Weighted Avg. lending rate

11.42

11.49

11.36

11.28

11.11

11.10

11.10

11.13

11.07

n.a

n.a

Weighted Avg. deposit rate

5.23

5.15

5.01

4.97

4.83

4.79

4.90

4.89

5.05

n.a

n.a

Spread rate

6.19

6.34

6.35

6.31

6.28

6.31

6.20

6.24

6.02

n.a

n.a

153,199 173,268 267,608

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

60,982 128,889

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

104,737 112,286 138,719

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

Public Finance
Tax collection

PkR (mn)

Direct taxes

PkR (mn)

Indirect Taxes

PkR (mn)

48,462

Currency
Reserves (RHS)

US$ (mn)

11,812

11,474

11,020

10,287

9,998

9,995

9,525

8,238

8,168

8,017

8,737

USDPkR - Interbank

PkR/USD

98.48

98.52

98.94

101.90

104.51

105.24

106.89

107.56

107.13

105.47

104.89

Source: SBP, PBS & AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

28 March 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

Analyst Certification
We, the AKD Research Team, hereby individually & jointly certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject securities and issuers. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is,or will be, directly or indirectly,
related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. We further certify that we do not have any beneficial holding
of the specific securities that we have recommendations on in this report.

AKD Research Team

Analyst

Tel no.

E-mail

Coverage

Naveed Vakil
Raza Jafri, CFA
Anum Dhedhi
Bilal Alvi
Qasim Anwar
Hassan Quadri
Azher Ali Quli
Nasir Khan
Tariq Mehmood

+92 111 253 111 (692)

+92 111 253 111 (693)
+92 111 253 111 (637)
+92 111 253 111 (647)
+92 111 253 111 (680)
+92 111 253 111 (639)
+92 111 253 111 (646)
+92 111 253 111 (646)
+92 111 253 111 (643)

naveed.vakil@akdsecurities.net
raza.jafri@akdsecurities.net
anum.dhedhi@akdsecurities.net
bilal.alvi@akdsecurities.net
qasim.anwar@akdsecurities.net
hassan.quadri@akdsecurities.net
azher.quli@akdsecurities.net
nasir.khan@akdsecurities.net
tariq.mehmood@akdsecurities.net

Director - Research & Business Development

Pakistan Economy & Commercial Banks
Pakistan Economy
Textiles, Cements & Chemical
Technical Analysis
Research Production / Autos
Research Production
Research Production
Library Operations

DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS

This publication/communication or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of AKD Securities
Limited. AKD Securities Limited has produced this report for private circulation to professional and institutional clients only. The information,
opinions and estimates herein are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction where doing so
would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject AKD Securities Limited to any additional registration or licensing requirement
within such jurisdiction. The information and statistical data herein have been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable and complied by
our research department in good faith. Such information has not been independently verified and we make no representation or warranty as to
its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Any opinions or estimates herein reflect the judgment of AKD Securities Limited at the date of this
publication/ communication and are subject to change at any time without notice.
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intended to provide professional, investment or any other type of advice or recommendation and does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual recipients. Before acting on any information in this publication/communication, you
should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice. Neither AKD Securities
Limited nor any of its affiliates or any other person connected with the company accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential
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including but not limited to, the participation or investment in commercial banking transaction (including loans) with some or all of the issuers
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10