Assad Is There To Stay

| by Nicola Nasser* ( April 9, 2014, Bir Zeit, West Bank , Sri Lanka !ar"ian# Lon$ $one t%e "ays &%en t%e '(S()le" so)calle" *+rien"s o, Syria- co!l" pla!sibly clai. t%at t&o t%ir"s o, Syria &as controlle" by rebel ,orces, t%at Syrian capital /a.asc!s &as !n"er sie$e an" its ,all &as 0!st a .atter o, ti.e an" t%at t%e "ays o, 1resi"ent Bas%ar al)Assa" &ere n!.bere" an" accor"in$ly %e *s%o!l" step "o&n(-

2%e &ar on Syria %as taken a ')t!rn "!rin$ t%e past year( Assa" no& ,ir.ly %ol"s t%e .ilitary initiati3e( 2%e lon$ a&aite" ,orei$n .ilitary inter3ention co!l" not take o,,4 it &as pre3ente" by t%e e.er$in$ .!lti)polar &orl" or"er( Syrian an" non)Syrian ins!r$ents are no& on t%e r!n( Assa" stan"s t%ere to stay( 2%e t%inly 3eile" 'N le$iti.acy, &%ic% &as !se" to 0!sti,y t%e in3asions o, 5ra6 an" Libya !n"er t%e prete7ts o, t%e responsibility to protect on %!.anitarian $ro!n"s, ,aile" to i.pose no) ,ly 8ones, %!.anitarian corri"ors an" ot%er instr!.ents o, ,orei$n inter3ention4 t%ey ,o!n"ere" on t%e bor"ers o, Syrian national so3erei$nty( 2%e o,,icial Syrian Arab Ar.y (SAA#, &%ic% &as strate$ically or$ani8e" an" statione" to ,i$%t a re$!lar &ar in "e,ence a$ainst t%e 5sraeli occ!pyin$ po&er in t%e &estern so!t% o, t%e co!ntry, &as taken by s!rprise by an internationally an" re$ionally coor"inate" !ncon3entional attack on its so,t ci3ilian backyar" &%ere it %a" 8ero presence(

Wit%in a relati3ely s%ort perio" o, ti.e t%e SAA s!ccee"e" in containin$ t%e initial attack, in a"aptin$ traine" !nits to !ncon3entional $!errilla &ar in cities an" in &innin$ o3er t%e s!pport o, t%e ci3ilian pop!lation, &it%o!t acce"in$ any $ro!n" o, its "e,ence 3is)9)3is 5srael( :3er since, t%e SAA &as $ainin$ .ore $ro!n", liberatin$ .ore ci3ilian centers ,ro. ins!r$ent terrorists, closin$ .ore bor"er crossin$ points !se" ,or in,iltration o, ,orei$n ,i$%ters into t%e co!ntry, c!ttin$ o, t%eir s!pply lines an" besie$in$ pockets o, t%eir presence in inner ol" cities an" in t%eir isolate" concentrations in t%e co!ntrysi"e( 2%e capital /a.asc!s, .ore t%an 9;< o, t%e co..on bor"ers &it% Lebanon an" t%e central %eart o, Syria aro!n" =o.s are no& sec!re"( :7cept t%e nort%ern city o, >a66a, no &%ere in Syria t%e ins!r$ents can clai. e7cl!si3e control( 2%e SAA is &innin$ all its battles( 2%e "eclare" $oal no& o, t%e '(S(, Sa!"i, ?atari an" 2!rkis% ,inancial, .ilitary an" lo$istical s!pport ,or t%e ins!r$ents is no .ore t%e *re$i.e c%an$e,- b!t creatin$ a balance o, po&er ai.e" at i.pro3in$ t%eir stan"in$ in ,!t!re ne$otiations &it% t%e re$i.e( 2o "o so, t%ey clai. t%ey are e7ten"in$ t%eir s!pport to &%at t%ey "escribe as t%e *.o"erate- ins!r$ents( =o&e3er, *.o"erate- rebels are a rare species in Syrian ins!r$ency( :nterin$ its ,o!rt% year no&, t%e &ar on Syria %as create" a %i$%ly polari8e" &ar 8one t%at %as le,t no roo. ,or any .o"erates( @o.batants are ,i$%tin$ no& to "eat% in a battle o, li,e or "eat%( 2%e ,i$%tin$ lines are strictly "ra&n bet&een %o.elan" "e,ence an" ,orei$n inter3ention, bet&een national ,orces an" international terrorists an" bet&een an e7istin$ sec!lar an" ci3il state an" a ,!t!re state percei3e" to be $o3erne" by an e7tre.ist or, at t%e best, a .o"erate 3ersion o, 5sla.ist i"eolo$y s!pporte" by t%e .ost back&ar", tribal an" !n"e.ocratic re$ional states &it% si.ilar sectarian i"eolo$ies( /!rin$ %is testi.ony at t%e Senate +orei$n >elations @o..ittee on last Septe.ber A, '(S( Secretary o, State Bo%n Cerry "enie" t%at t%e *.o"erate- Syrian rebels are in,iltrate" by t%e al) ?ae"a terrorists as *basically not tr!e(2%e Syrian *opposition %as increasin$ly beco.e .ore "e,ine" by its .o"eration, .ore "e,ine" by t%e brea"t% o, its .e.bers%ip, an" .ore "e,ine" by its a"%erence to so.e, yo! kno&, "e.ocratic process an" to an all)incl!si3e, .inority protectin$ constit!tion, &%ic% &ill be broa")base" an" sec!lar &it% respect to t%e ,!t!re o, Syria,- Cerry testi,ie"( =o&e3er, %ar" ,acts on t%e $ro!n" in Syria as &ell as state.ents by ot%er '(S( %i$% rankin$ o,,icials c%allen$e CerryDs testi.ony as a politically .oti3ate", ,ar ,ro. tr!t% an" .islea"in$ state.ent( Last Earc%, eneral /a3i" >o"ri$!e8, %ea" o, t%e '(S( A,rica @o..an", testi,ie" be,ore t%e =o!se Ar.e" Ser3ices @o..ittee t%at *Syria %as beco.e a si$ni,icant location ,or al)?ae"a) ali$ne" $ro!ps to recr!it, train, an" e6!ip e7tre.ists(2%e pre3io!s .ont%, Ba.es @lapper, t%e '(S( "irector o, national intelli$ence, calle" Syria a

*%!$e .a$net- ,or 5sla.ic e7tre.ists in testi.ony prepare" ,or t%e Senate intelli$ence co..ittee( Last Ban!ary, @lapper also tol" a Senate intelli$ence %earin$ t%at *trainin$ co.ple7es- ,or ,orei$n ,i$%ters &ere spotte" in Syria an" c%air o, t%e Senate intelli$ence co..ittee /ianne +einstein "escribe" Syria as *t%e .ost notable ne& sec!rity t%reat in t%e year- since t%e co..itteeDs last .eetin$( Eatt%e& Flsen, "irector o, t%e '(S( $o3ern.entDs National @o!nterterroris. @enter, &as on recor" to say t%at *Syria %as beco.e really t%e pre"o.inant 0i%a"ist battle,iel" in t%e &orl"(Also on recor" &as Be% @( Bo%nson, Secretary o, =o.elan" Sec!rity, &%o state" t%at t%e Syria &ar *%as beco.e a .atter o, %o.elan" sec!rity,- ,or.er @5A /ep!ty /irector Eic%ael Eorell &%o i"enti,ie" Syria as *t%e $reatest t%reat to '(S( national sec!rity,- +B5 /irector !ntil last Septe.ber >obert E!eller &%o *&arne" t%at an increasin$ ,lo& o, '(S( citi8ens %ea"in$ to Syria an" else&%ere to &a$e 0i%a" a$ainst re$ional po&ers co!l" en" !p in a ne& $eneration o, %o.e)$ro&n terrorists(All t%ese an" ot%er %i$% le3el '(S( concl!sions "o not testi,y to t%e e7istence o, *.o"erateins!r$ents in Syria an" 3in"icate t%e o,,icial Syrian narration as .!c% as t%ey re,!te CerryDs state.ent abo!t t%e *"e.ocratic,- *sec!lar- an" *.o"erate- Syrian *opposition(*Eo"erate- rebels are eit%er .ar$inal or a rare species in Syrian ins!r$ency an" i, t%ey "o e7ist t%ey are alrea"y increasin$ly concl!"in$ *reconciliation- a$ree.ents &it% t%e Syrian $o3ern.ent, accor"in$ to &%ic% t%ey "isar., 0oin t%e $o3ern.ent anti terror an" anti *stran$ers- .ilitary an" sec!rity ca.pai$n or si.ply rec!rrin$ to atten"in$ to t%eir personal li3es( 2%e A.ericans an" t%eir Sa!"i an" 2!rkis% b!llies are le,t &it% t%e only option o, arti,icially creatin$ arti,icial *.o"erates,- &%o. t%ey !nrealistically an" &is%,!lly "rea. o, t!rnin$ into a cre"ible lea"in$ ,orce on t%e $ro!n"( As part o, %is e,,orts to .en" ,ences &it% Sa!"i Arabia, a persistent a"3ocate o, &ar an" .ilitari8ation in Syria, '(S( 1resi"ent Barak Fba.a see.s to %a3e p!rs!e" recently a t&o) pron$e" "iplo.atic an" .ilitary policy( /iplo.atically, %e close" t%e Syrian e.bassy an" cons!lates in t%e 'nite" States an" restricte" t%e .o3e.ent o, t%e Syrian en3oy to t%e 'nite" Nations as a *"o&n pay.ent- a%ea" o, %is 3isit to t%e kin$"o. on last Earc% 2G( Eilitarily, %e pro.ise" .ore ar.s to Syrian *.o"erate- rebels "!rin$ %is 3isit( A,ter t%e 3isit %e &as reporte"ly consi"erin$ ar.in$ t%ose *.o"erate- rebels &it% .ore a"3ance" &eaponry, incl!"in$ anti)aircra,t .issiles or EAN1A/s( W%ile pro3i"in$ t%ose *.o"erates- &it% EAN1A/s is yet to be con,ir.e", 5sraelDs /ebka,ile

&ebsite on t%is April H reporte" t%at t&o .o"erate Syrian rebel .ilitias ) t%e +ree Syrian Ar.y an" t%e Syrian >e3ol!tionary +ront ) %a3e been s!pplie" &it% a"3ance" 'S &eapons, incl!"in$ ar.o!r)piercin$, optically)$!i"e" B E)H1 2FW .issiles, &%ic% enter t%e Ei""le :ast ,or t%e ,irst ti.e( 5.a$es o, rebels e6!ippe" &it% t%ese ar.s %a3e be$!n to circ!late in recent "ays( Bot% .ilitias are coor"inatin$ an" cooperatin$ &it% t%e al)?ae"a o,,s%oot t%e 5sla.ic State in 5ra6 an" al)S%a. (5S5S# an" t%e al)?ae"a a,,iliate Bab%at al)N!sra, bot% liste" as terrorist $ro!ps by t%e '(S(, Sa!"i Arabia Syria an" 5ra6( Abo!t 2i.e ,or '(S( to >econsi"er Wit%in t%is conte7t, t%e e7istin$ @5A)le" pro$ra. in Bor"an ,or trainin$ pre)appro3e" *.o"erates- &ill reporte"ly be e7pan"e" to raise t%e n!.ber o, trainees ,ro. one %!n"re" to si7 %!n"re" a .ont%( At t%is rate, accor"in$ to @%arles Lister, a 3isitin$ ,ello& at t%e Brookin$s @enter in ?atar, &ritin$ on t%is April A, *it &o!l" take close to t&o years to pro"!ce a ,orce- t%at co!l" n!.erically ri3al t%e e7tre.ist *A%rar al)S%a.- $ro!p an" *it &o!l" take se3en years- to create a ,orce t%at co!l" ri3al t%e e7tre.ist *5sla.ic +ront,- let alone t%e .ainstrea. $ro!ps o, terrorist ins!r$ents like t%e 5S5S an" t%e al)N!sra( oin$ a%ea" &it% s!c% a '(S()Sa!"i trainin$ pro$ra. in Bor"an is tanta.o!nt to plannin$ an e7ten"e" &ar on Syria !ntil s!c% ti.e t%at t%e re$i.e c%an$es or t%e co!ntry beco.es a ,aile" state, as t%e planners &is%,!lly %ope( Eo"erate Syrian rebels are a '(S( .ira$e( Wit% lo$istical 3ital %elp ,ro. 2!rkey, t%e Sa!"i an" ?atari '(S( allies &ere "eter.ine" to s!ccess,!lly .ilitari8e an" %i0ack le$iti.ate pop!lar protests ,or c%an$e lest t%ey s&eep alon$ t%eir o&n people an" spill o3er into t%eir o&n territories( 5tDs abo!t ti.e t%at t%e '(S( policy .akers reconsi"er, "eal &it% t%e ,acts on t%e $ro!n" in Syria an" stop yiel"in$ to t%e b!llyin$ o, t%eir re$ional allies &%o contin!e to beat t%e "r!.s o, &ar only to s!r3i3e t%e re$ional ti"al &a3e o, c%an$e( 2o contain t%is ti"al &a3e o, c%an$e, ?atar, Sa!"i Arabia an" 2!rkey %a3e sponsore" an 5sla.ist alternati3e as a co!nterre3ol!tion( 2%e E!sli. Brot%er%oo" 5nternational (EB5# &as a 3ersion o, t%is alternati3e( 'n,ort!nately t%e '(S( $ot alon$ &it% it( 2%e EB5 plan in :$ypt %as pro3e" co!nterpro"!cti3e( 5ts ,ail!re in :$ypt pre)e.pte" ,or $oo" any %ope ,or its s!ccess in Syria( 2%e ens!in$ ri,t a.on$ t%e anti)Syria allies "oo.e" t%e plan re$ionally( 1resi"ent Assa"Ds state.ent on t%is April H t%at t%e *pro0ect o, political 5sla.- %as ,aile" &as not o3eropti.istic or pre.at!re( Neit%er &as t%e state.ent o, %is ally, t%e lea"er o, LebanonDs =e8b!lla%, =assan Nasralla%, on t%e sa.e "ay t%at *t%e p%ase o, brin$in$ "o&n t%e re$i.e or brin$in$ "o&n t%e (Syrian# state is o3erI 2%ey cannot o3ert%ro& t%e re$i.e, b!t t%ey can &a$e a &ar o, attrition(2%e '(S( ca.pai$n ,or .ore t%an t%ree years no& ,or a *re$i.e c%an$e- in Syria %as create" only a *%!$e .a$net- ,or international terroris., t%anks to Sa!"i, ?atari an" 2!rkis% .ilitary, ,inancial an" lo$istical s!pport(

1eace,!l protesters &ere si"eline" to obli3ion( Eore t%an t%ree years o, bloo"s%e" le,t no roo. ,or .o"erates( *>e$i.e c%an$e- by ,orce ,ro. o!tsi"e t%e co!ntry, alon$ t%e 5ra6i an" Libyan lines, %as pro3e" a ,ail!re( '(S( an" &estern calls ,or Syrian 1resi"ent Bas%ar al)Assa" to step "o&n is no& a ,aint cry t%at can %ar"ly be %ear"( All &orl" an" re$ional in"ications as &ell as .ilitary "e3elop.ents on t%e $ro!n" re,er to one ,actJ Assa" is t%ere to stay( @%an$e &ill co.e only !n"er %is lea"ers%ip or %is $!i"ance( 'n"erstan"in$ &it% %i. is t%e only &ay to internal an" re$ional stability( Eore or less %e %as s!ccee"e" in t!rnin$ t%e *%!$e .a$net- ,or international terrorists into t%eir killin$ ,iel"( =is ,inal 3ictory is only a .atter o, ti.e( Ar.in$ rebels, *.o"erates- or terrorists re$ar"less, &ill only perpet!ate t%e Syrian peopleDs pli$%t an" ,!el re$ional anti)A.ericanis.( 2%e sooner t%e 'nite" States act on t%is ,act is t%e better ,or all in3ol3e" parties( * Nicola Nasser is a 3eteran Arab 0o!rnalist base" in Bir Zeit, West Bank o, t%e 5sraeli) occ!pie" 1alestinian territories( nassernicolaKy.ail(co.