Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com. ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Melbourne, FL.

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April 11, 2014 The power of the pivots continue for the major equity averages.

Pivots continue to keep the major equity averages locked in choppy trading ranges, but there is not a sell signal unless all major averages end the week below their five-week modified moving averages. The Dow Industrial Average is back below monthly and semiannual pivots at 16297 and 16245. The S&P 500 is back below its quarterly pivot at 1853.5. The Nasdaq is above its quarterly value level at 4039. The Dow Transportation Average is above its quarterly value level at 7407. The Russell 2000 is just below its semiannual pivots at 1133.29 and 1130.79. The daily charts are negative given daily closes below the 21-day SMAs at 16328 Dow Industrials, 1862.8 S&P 500, 4216 Nasdaq, 7535 Dow Transports and 1172.25 Russell 2000. We still have semiannual value levels at 3930 and 3920 on the Nasdaq with semiannual pivots at 16245 Dow Industrials, 1797.3 and 1764.4 S&P 500, 7376 and 7245 Dow Transports, and 1133.29 and 1130.79 on the Russell 2000, and the semiannual risky level at 16860 Dow Industrials. All pivots mentioned have been crossed at least once so far in 2014. To confirm a market top there needs to be simultaneous weekly closes below the five-week modified moving averages at 16256 Dow Industrials, 1850.0 S&P 500, 4203 Nasdaq, 7450 Dow Transports and 1165.28 Russell 2000 with declining 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastics. Only the Nasdaq and Russell have negative weekly charts. If a stock market top is confirmed the risk is to the annual value levels at 14835 and 13467 Dow Industrials, 1539.1 and 1442.1 S&P 500, 3471 and 3063 Nasdaq, 6249 and 5935 on Dow Transports and 966.72 and 879.39 on Russell 2000. Dow Industrials: (16170) Annual value levels are 14835 and 13467 with semiannual and monthly pivots at 16245 and 16297, a quarterly level at 16462, the April 4 all-time intraday high at 16631.63 and weekly and semiannual risky levels at 16772 and 16860. S&P 500 (1833.1) Semiannual and annual value levels are 1797.3, 1764.4, 1539.1 and 1442.1 with a quarterly pivot at 1853.5, the April 4 all-time intraday high at 1897.28, and monthly and weekly risky levels at 1895.6 and 1915.8. NASDAQ (4054) Quarterly, semiannual and annual value levels are 4039, 3930, 3920, 3471 and 3063 with daily and weekly risky levels at 4111 and 4338, the March 6 multiyear intraday high at 4371.71 and monthly risky level at 4446. NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (3488) Semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 3456, 3458, 3424, 3078 and 2669 with daily and weekly risky levels at 3543 and 3695, the March 6 multiyear intraday

high at 3738.32, and monthly risky levels at 3834. Dow Transports (7431) Quarterly, semiannual, and annual value levels are 7407, 7376, 7245, 6249 and 5935 with daily and weekly risky levels at 7533 and 7678, the April 3 all-time intraday high at 7715.91 and monthly risky level at 7812. Russell 2000 (1127.66) Annual value levels are 966.72 and 879.39 with semiannual pivots at 1133.29 and 1130.79, 9, a quarterly pivot at 1169.22, a monthly risky level at 1211.52, the March 4 alltime intraday high at 1212.82 and weekly risky level at 1224.32. The SOX (569.15) Semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 548.36, 507.19, 490.52, 371.58 and 337.74 with a monthly pivot at 581.64, the April 3 multiyear intraday high at 601.40 and weekly risky level at 606.78. Dow Utilities: (534.80) Quarterly, semiannual, monthly and annual value levels are 528.10, 524.37, 504.74, 502.03 and 497.53 with a daily pivot at 532.99, and weekly and annual risky levels at 542.83 and 548.70. The yield on the US Treasury 10-Year note (2.639%) is below the convergence of its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 2.716%, 2.709% and 2.721%. The weekly chart is neutral with its five-week MMA at 2.729% and its 200-week SMA at 2.412%. The yield on the US Treasury 30-Year bond (3.526%) is below its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 3.589%, 3.631% and 3.719%. The weekly chart shows the bond yield between its five-week MMA at 3.631% and its 200-week SMA at 3.532%. Comex Gold ($1318.9) is on the cusp of its 21-day SMA at $1318.1 and above the golden cross of the 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $1313.1 and $1297.1. The weekly chart is negative with the fiveweek MMA at $1310.8 and the 200-week SMA at $1494.3. The golden cross is thus in a tug-of-war with the negative weekly chart. Nymex Crude Oil ($103.35) is above its converged 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $100.32, $100.55 and $100.67. The weekly chart shifts to positive given a close this week above its five-week MMA at $100.98 with its 200-week SMA at $93.86. The Euro (1.3885) is above its 21-day SMA, 50-day SMA and 200-day SMAs at 1.3809, 1.3748 and 1.3542. The weekly chart shifts to neutral give a close this week above its five-week MMA at 1.3769 with its 200-week SMA at 1.3362. To learn more about ValuEngine check out www.ValuEngine.com. Any comments or questions contact me at RSuttmeier@gmail.com.