FEB 1

Keeping people and tigers safe

As conservation of wild species becomes more successful, higher levels of human-wildlife conflict are being reported in many parts of the country. The outcome of such encounters is a distressing number of human lives lost, and the tragic elimination of the wild creatures involved in the attacks. The man-eating tiger incident in Dodabetta in the Nilgiris, which ended in the gunning down of the cat, brings to the fore the dilemma of ensuring a safe distance between wild animals and people. Evidently, there are no easy answers to this question, not just in India but in several other countries that have well-protected wildlife. Two strategies often adopted to prevent conflict rely on modification of human and animal behaviour. Farmers are encouraged to switch to cash crops to avoid attracting elephants, while forest departments provide access to water within protected areas to stop animals from moving out. Wild creatures in turn learn to avoid places rendered inaccessible through trench-digging and building of fences. Yet, these are by no means fail-safe interventions. It is necessary to identify areas for intensive protection, and encourage forest-dwelling communities to move out of course, with sufficient attention devoted to their rehabilitation at a new location. Removal of problem animals often becomes unavoidable if there are human casualties and there is a prospect of more people being killed. It would appear ironic, but conservation advice in such circumstances is usually to swiftly eliminate the lone animal, such as the Dodabetta tiger, rather than attempt slow capture and risk negative public attitudes to tigers as a whole. Unfortunately, it is not easy to identify the individual tiger or leopard, and the conflict may continue even after one animal is shot dead. In Chikmagalur district, for instance, 17 leopards had to be shot in 1995 before the problem of attacks on people stopped. Research evidence supports a strategy that relies on spatial separation of people and animals as a more rewarding means of conflict reduction. If isolated villages and free ranging cattle are moved out of the small land area that makes up Indias protected forests, the risk of an encounter with fierce creatures can be brought down. The problem today is that successfully managed national parks and sanctuaries are witnessing a rise in tiger and leopard numbers, leading to the dispersal of old and injured animals towards habitations on the periphery and even beyond. Future conservation strategies would have to rely on well-administered wildlife sanctuaries, and equally on a voluntary resettlement programme for forest communities.

Telangana birth-pangs
By getting a resolution rejecting the Andhra Pradesh Reorganisation Bill for creating Telangana passed by the State Assembly just before the deadline set by President Pranab Mukherjee to consider the Bill ended on Thursday, Chief Minister N. Kiran Kumar Reddy did what little he could to protect what he saw as his political constituency: those standing for a united Andhra Pradesh in the Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra regions. Neither the delay nor the ultimate rejection of the Telangana Bill by the Assembly will have any bearing on the creation of the new State if the Centre stands firm on its decision on Telangana. The Chief Minister, in raising legal

and technical objections to the Bill, might have managed to convey the opposition of large sections of the people in Seemandhra to the division of Andhra Pradesh, but the manner in which the proceedings of the House were conducted from the day the Bill was introduced till the day it was rejected reflects badly on his government and the democratic traditions of the legislature. Speaker Nadendla Manohar, who too is politically opposed to Telangana, put the Chief Ministers contentious resolution to a voice vote amid noisy scenes, and declared the motion carried in a matter of two minutes. It was obvious from the regional representation in the House that those opposed to the Bill constituted a majority. The Bill presented a chance to address the concerns raised by the proposal to bifurcate Andhra Pradesh. Instead, the time was used for political posturing and the reiteration of known positions by both sides. Pro-Telangana members, on their part, did not press for a division amid the din, perhaps because they did not want to expose their lack of numbers. The voice vote was, in effect, the only mode of expression of the views of the legislature. Now that the onus is on the Centre to shepherd the Bill through Parliament, the Congress must eschew any temptation to use this issue as part of any electoral strategy before the Lok Sabha polls. With the national leadership of the party backing the creation of Telangana, and the State unit divided on geographical lines, making this a campaign issue is anyway fraught with risks. No political consensus on the Bill is possible at this late stage, but the Centre can bring in amendments to the Bill to incorporate the concerns of other parties and representatives of Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra. As the support of the Bharatiya Janata Party is necessary in the Rajya Sabha, the Congress will have to keep the Bill open for amendments. The State legislature was robbed of a free, reasoned debate on the issue, but hopefully Parliament will consider all aspects of the Bill before bringing Telangana into being.

Caught off guard by taper

The recent announcement by the U.S. Federal Reserve of a further reduction in its monthly bondbuying programme by $10 billion, to $65 billion, seems to have caught emerging market economies off-guard. This is quite in contrast to their equanimous reaction in December when the stimulus-reduction programme was launched. This is attributed to the fact that the announcement of January 29 completely ignored the concerns of emerging- market countries. Many of them were under pressure even earlier and the announcement, without acknowledging the volatility that it had already caused, offered no respite to a number of countries, from Argentina to South Africa. Their currencies weakened, in some cases precipitously. Their stock markets fell in conjunction and bond markets reacted violently. Threatened with a possible choking of easy money, investors started selling emerging market stocks and currencies to invest in the developed countries that offer better risk-adjusted returns at this juncture. Predictably, many central banks of developing countries hiked interest rates to stabilise their currencies, but with mixed results. India has shown greater resilience this time compared to many other similarly placed economies, and even in relation to its record last September when the news of a possible tapering sent global markets into a tizzy. Improved macroeconomic fundamentals and the RBIs determination to check inflation have boosted investor confidence. However, given that growth rates are still sluggish and given the possibility of fiscal slippages, India will continue to faces challenges. Over-reliance on short-term flows to bridge balance of payments

has been the bane of external sector management, and at times like this the policy shortcomings stand exposed. There are two broad lessons to be drawn from the taper and the reactions to it. RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan has pointed out that policy coordination among countries has been a casualty. In the immediate post-crisis period, emerging economies helped boost global demand through well-coordinated fiscal stimulus programmes. A complete synchronisation of monetary and fiscal policies might not be possible in practice but certain seminal policy measures such as the U.S. taper do require wider consultation and coordination among countries. This has been the consensus view at several forums including the G-20 and IMF-World Bank meetings. Second, it needs to be noted that U.S. monetary policy is framed with reference to the U.S. economy. The gradual withdrawal of the stimulus is dependent on the U.S. economy reaching some well defined milestones such as reduction in unemployment. The ongoing taper signals a stronger U.S. economy, and that should be good news for India and other emerging economies at least in the long run.

Pressure on farmland
The government, it appears, is yet to find ways to address conflicting demands on land. Instead of quickly charting a comprehensive approach to land utilisation, it continues to speak in different voices and at cross purposes. The latest addition to the policy confusion is the move to consider Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in agricultural land bought for real estate purposes. Existing Foreign Exchange Management Act regulations prohibit the use of FDI funds to buy farmland. However, real estate companies have tried to bypass these restrictions. Last year, the Enforcement Directorate imposed a fine of Rs. 8,600 crore on Emaar MGF for allegedly using foreign funds to buy agricultural land. The Ministry of Urban Development now wants to ease these restrictions, and the government has constituted a three-member Cabinet committee to look into it. The reasoning behind this move is that 100 per cent FDI is already permitted in developing townships, housing and other infrastructure projects. Hence, it would be only logical to extend it and allow the purchase of agricultural land for construction purposes. The other arguments are that restrictions create bottlenecks and delay projects, and that buying of agricultural land on the outskirts of a city is inevitable and necessary. On the face of it, relaxing FDI norms may appear to be a rational step, but in the absence of a clear-cut land use policy and plans, it will hasten unrestricted acquisition and unplanned conversion of farmland and lead to hoarding of land. In 2013, the Ministry of Rural Development published a draft National Land Utilisation Policy. It convincingly argued that the shrinkage of per capita ownership of agricultural land and the demand to produce more food 245 million tonnes in 2013 to 307 million tonnes in 2020 necessitates the protection of fertile land. The National Policy for Farmers, announced in 2007, insisted that the government conserve productive land and allow any change in use only under exceptional circumstances. These two policies make no distinction between foreign and local investment. The government has not acted on a recommendation to revive land use boards, which could provide guidelines to State governments. Nor has it implemented the idea of delineating and integrating land utilisation zones under the development plans. These measures are necessary to map the availability of land

and coordinate demands for it. It is imperative to correct any institutional deficiencies and strengthen local level land-management plans to ensure an orderly process of urban development and prevent detrimental effects on agriculture and environment.

An unjustified delay
The interminable delay in resolving the outstanding issues concerning the prosecution of two Italian marines accused of killing two Indian fishermen off the Kerala coast in February 2012 is becoming a diplomatic embarrassment to India. The Supreme Court has been adjourning the matter repeatedly in the hope that the Union government would find a solution, and in the latest instance it has given the Centre one more week to report a settlement. The main issue appears to be the National Investigating Agencys insistence on invoking an anti-piracy law the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against Safety of Maritime Navigation and Fixed Platforms on Continental Shelf Act, 2002 which prescribes the death penalty for those causing death during an act of violence against any ship or vessel. The NIA is ready with its charge sheet, but is awaiting the outcome of proceedings in the Supreme Court before filing it in a special court. While there may be genuine reasons for the delay in resolving the matter, the country cannot afford to be seen as the cause. Italian President Giorgio Napolitano has said Indian authorities have managed the case in contradictory and disconcerting ways. The European Union, which opposes the death penalty in all circumstances, has also warned of a possible adverse impact on trade relations with India. It is particularly surprising that Indias approach should be marked by doubt and uncertainty even after the Supreme Court mapped the contours of the proposed prosecution in a January 2013 verdict, in which it held that only the Centre, and not Kerala, would have jurisdiction to try the case. The issue raised by the marines is whether the anti-piracy and anti-terrorism law can be invoked against them after the court had directed that the proceedings be under the Maritime Zones Act, 1976, the IPC and the CrPC, and the provisions of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, 1982. The wisdom of invoking the anti-piracy law in a case involving a crime that was possibly committed under the impression that the targets were pirates, is open to question. As the incident took place in Indias Contiguous Zone, the Supreme Court had held that the Union government was entitled to prosecute the marines, but that it was subject to Article 100 of UNCLOS 1982, which says all states shall cooperate in the repression of piracy. Caught between national outrage against what many here see as wanton killing by trigger-happy marines, and the imperative of according a fair trial to the suspects, India seems to be faltering at both the diplomatic and legal levels. It needs to finalise a credible and legally sustainable approach to avoid diplomatic setbacks or, worse, a judicial invalidation.

Heavy burden on the young

The 13.1 per cent rate of unemployment in the 15-24 years age-group globally is more than twice that among the adult population.
With one million more young people joining the ranks of the jobless in 2013, the worlds youth are facing a disproportionate burden, says the latest report of the International Labour Organisation. The Global Employment Trends report 2014 also records slow progress of late in reducing levels of vulnerable employment and working poverty, a result of the continued impact of the 2007-08 financial and economic crisis. The 13.1 per cent rate of unemployment in the 1524 years age-group globally is more than twice that among the adult population. This is a particular concern in India where people below 25 years of age constitute more than 50 per cent of the population. Equally worrying is the finding that the number of youth who are neither in employment nor in education or training is on the rise in many countries. Again for India, the overwhelming majority (around 90 per cent) of the workforce in the unorganised sector lacks even the basic social protection that is necessary for the reproduction of labour. The whole scenario has to be viewed against the ILOs projection that employment will continue to expand at a slower pace than the labour force, resulting in a shortfall of some two million jobs annually over the next five years. As much as 45 per cent of all new job-seekers will be from East and South Asia, the region that already lags behind on several indicators that are critical to human development. The year 2013 seems to have been especially bad, with as many as five million people joining the ranks of the jobless. The figure also lends greater substance to claims regarding uneven recovery from the crisis in the last decade. One comparison in the report is instructive: whereas monetary stimulus in the aftermath of the crisis induced aggregate demand, a rising share of the additional liquidity has not been feeding into the real economy. It is almost axiomatic that slow growth and low levels of job creation reinforce one another, a fact overlooked by fiscal conservatives. If anything, the need to make provision for unemployment and other relevant benefits for large segments of society that are out of work put paid to attempts by governments to balance budgets not to mention other deleterious consequences. Strong social protection measures will not only promote the overall interests of the workforce and the economy in general in the medium term, they will also lay the foundation to face the demographic transition over the next two decades. This is expected to result in a large increase in the numbers of the elderly as a proportion of the overall population, presenting new challenges for policymaking.

No business as usual
In terms of number of bills passed, this Lok Sabha will fare the worst among those that have completed a full five-year term.
The last session of Parliament before a Lok Sabha election is usually politically more charged and legislatively less productive than any other routine session. But the current session of the 15th Lok Sabha will be particularly remembered for the manner in which some members have

managed to highlight contentious issues by stalling the proceedings, and preventing the passage of important bills. Indeed, differences of opinion over the Telangana Bill and the communal violence Bill could end up effectively blocking legislation including the Rights of Persons with Disabilities Bill and the Street Vendors Bill. Instead of looking to push through amendments, the opponents of the Telangana Bill are intent on preventing its introduction in the House. The Bill seems to have been deliberately kept for introduction at this late stage in anticipation of objections. Although the issue has been simmering for quite a while now, the government only managed to come up with a hurriedly drafted legislation, reflecting its half-hearted and confused approach to the creation of a state of Telangana. Whatever the political calculations of the Congress whether it wants to use the Bill to win more seats in the Telangana region or to blame the opposition for its non-passage, or to deliberately send confused signals in an attempt to retain support in both Telangana and Seemandhra regions the current situation is unlikely to yield any political dividend for the party. Clearly, there is no solution that will fully satisfy either the Telangana supporters or those fighting for a united Andhra Pradesh. But the national leadership of the Congress and the Centre could have acted earlier to push through a compromise formula addressing the concerns of both sides to the extent possible. But the approach seems to have been reactive, and calculated to delay matters as much as possible. In terms of number of bills passed, this Lok Sabha will fare the worst among those that have completed a full five-year term. Too many important bills have been left to the very end, and their fate hangs in the balance. Indeed, this situation sums up the performance of the UPA-II government confused, indecisive, and weak. Despite seeing through important pieces of legislation such as the Food Security Act and the Right to Education Act, the governments record on the legislative front is poor. It did precious little to push through the Womens Reservation Bill. If the current session ends the way it has begun, without transacting any substantive business, that would indeed mirror the functioning of UPA-II over the last five years.

Nadella at the top

Mr. Nadella and other Indian immigrants before him in the U.S. could succeed thanks to the meritocracy that is the corner-stone of the American system.
Tuesdays announcement by Microsoft appointing India-born Satya Nadella as its CEO is the culmination of a five-month-long search that began when Steve Ballmer announced his retirement in August last year. After considering some well-known names such as Ford Motor Company CEO Alan Mulally and Ericsson CEO Hans Vestberg, the company seems to have made a safe choice by settling for Mr. Nadella, a Microsoft veteran of 22 years. Mr. Nadella is known to be strong in technology, having headed less-glamorous but high tech businesses such as the Bing search engine and the cloud and enterprise business solutions. His appointment has elicited positive reactions from analysts and long-time observers of the company, but Mr. Nadellas challenge has only begun. Microsoft, once an agile corporation quick on its feet, is now a lumbering giant that is playing catch-up in the market. The proliferation of hand-held devices such as tablets and smartphones at the cost of personal computers is posing a major threat to Microsoft. The $78 billion giant has but a marginal presence in operating software for mobile hand-held devices, which prompted it to acquire Nokias mobile business recently.

Integrating this business with Microsoft seamlessly will be among Mr. Nadellas first challenges. He has to wrest back a share of the consumers mind-space and wallet that Microsoft held during the glory days of the personal computer, grappling with the likes of Apple and Google. In India, the reaction to the appointment has been on predictable lines with the media and the masses alike complimenting themselves on the elevation of one of their own to the top of the technology empire. While there is reason to be proud given that Mr. Nadellas early education was in India and his parents still live here, it would be wrong to scream from the roof-tops that this is yet another event that marks the arrival of India on the world stage. To be sure, Mr. Nadella is not the first person of Indian origin to head a blue-chip American corporation, and nor will he be the last. We should also remember that Mr. Nadella has spent half his life in the U.S. and earned his spurs there. We need to introspect whether this story of an individual forget an immigrant rising to the top at so young an age through sheer merit would have been possible in the Indian system. Mr. Nadella and other Indian immigrants before him in the U.S. could succeed thanks to the meritocracy that is the corner-stone of the American system. While we may have our occasional quibbles with America, we need to appreciate and learn from that country on how to respect and reward talent and merit, in any field of human endeavour.

Dealing with a toxic legacy

President Barack Obamas recent statement of his Afghanistan policy has again revealed the intractable situation the United States has faced since it led the invasion of that country in 2001. In his State of the Union address to Congress on January 28, Mr. Obama said the mission there would be completed by the end of the year, and that thereafter the U.S. and its allies would support a unified Afghanistan as it took responsibility for itself. With the agreement of the Afghan government, a small force could remain to train and assist Afghan forces and carry out counterterrorism operations against any al-Qaeda remnants. Washington has withdrawn 60,000 of its troops from Afghanistan since Mr. Obama took office in 2009, but 36,500 remain, with 19,000 from other countries in the NATO-ISAF coalition. Western plans are for a residual force of 8,000 to 12,000, two-thirds of them American, but sections of the U.S. military have suggested a U.S. strength of 10,000, with 5,000 from the rest of the coalition. Mr. Obama is discussing the options with senior officers. The President wants to avoid a repeat of Iraq, which with the exception of Kurdistan has become a battleground between Sunni and Shia leaders, claiming over 7,000 lives in 2013 alone. But over Afghanistan he is caught in a cleft stick. Afghan President Hamid Karzai is yet to sign the deal for NATO-ISAF troops to stay; he would prefer his successor to sign the agreement after he leaves office in April 2014, but the successor will not take office until September. Secondly, Mr. Karzai has infuriated Washington by planning to release 37 Taliban detainees, by blaming American forces for terrorist attacks on civilians, and by calling the U.S. a colonial power. Yet the Afghan National Security Forces, which include the police, number 334,000, or about 20,000 below the numbers envisaged for them, and the U.S. Department of Defense has reported to Congress that the ANSF cannot operate on their own. The U.S. public have little wish to continue the war, but the military may have its own agenda. The September 2013 quarterly report by the Special Inspector General for Afghan Reconstruction shows that of nearly $100

billion in reconstruction aid, $97 billion went towards counter-narcotics, security, and other operations; only $3 billion was used for humanitarian aid. If the President feels hemmed in, it is because of the toxic legacy of his predecessor George W. Bush who went into the country in search of Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda. At the end of 12 years of American occupation, Afghanistan has not emerged as a more secure place; nor has the U.S. had much of a success in nation-building.

The ways of tobacco companies

For several decades, tobacco companies across the world vehemently denied and blatantly deceived and misled people about the dangers of smoking. That the American companies continued with their abhorrent acts of deception despite the U.S. Surgeon General warning 50 years ago that cigarette smoking is a health hazard is shocking. But the tide is turning, and these companies that continued with their ways are being brought to account. In a second major move, four American companies and the U.S. government recently reached an agreement on the corrective statements that the companies would advertise. Besides stating the facts about smoking, they would admit to deliberate deception, in advertisements that would be carried once a week in 35 newspapers and on TV five times a week for a year. These would also be carried on the companies websites for two years. If all goes well, the agreement would bring to an end a 15-year-old battle that started a year after the November 1998 Master Settlement Agreement that forced the companies into paying the 46 States $206 billion over 25 years for treating smokers who fell sick. The 1998 agreement also placed several advertising and marketing restrictions. Despite the damning exposure and the severe restrictions, the companies have unabashedly continued to improvise strategies to build their customer base; every day they successfully lure over 3,000 U.S. children to try their first cigarette. Despite a significant drop in smoking incidence from 42 per cent in 1965 to 18 per cent in 2012 in the U.S., the habit still kills about half a million people annually. In India, tobacco use causes a million deaths every year. While the U.S. government has put in place several effective measures to reduce smoking, surprisingly it has adopted a regressive stand on implementing pictorial warnings on cigarette packets. In spite of unequivocal evidence supporting the effectiveness of pictorial warnings in preventing smoking initiation and encouraging smokers to quit, a U.S. court has halted its implementation on the ground that the regulation violates freedom of speech. The WHOs 2005 Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) treaty strongly endorses pictorial warnings. Though India introduced such warnings in 2009, these are highly ineffective and fail in their primary objective. It is time India introduced more effective ones and rotated them every year. The country needs to shift gears to battle tobacco use, paying heed to the report of the U.S. Surgeon General released recently that has found a direct link between smoking and many diseases, including Type II diabetes and liver cancer.

Moment of truth for India

India is exceptional among democracies in having no legal framework for its intelligence services, nor a system of oversight and accountability for covert operations.
For the first time in the history of independent India, a high official of its intelligence services stands indicted for cold-blooded killing in the service of the Republic. Thursdays Central Bureau of Investigation charge sheet against former Intelligence Bureau Special Director Rajinder Kumar and his subordinates for the alleged extra-judicial execution of Maharashtra residents Ishrat Jahan Raza and Javed Sheikh, as well as two alleged Pakistani Lashkar-e-Toiba operatives, marks an unprecedented challenge for Indias national security system. The CBIs charge sheet has blown the lid off the comforting fiction that extra-judicial killings are aberrations, crimes carried out by brutish policemen and villainous provincial politicians. In this case, the Gujarat Police might have played executioner, but the charges against Mr. Kumar give reason to believe that the death warrants were signed, so to speak, in North Block. Loud and acrimonious political debate has broken out on whether the four victims were linked to terrorism or not, which really is an irrelevant issue. Instead, political leaders must introspect on the role of governments in encouraging murder as a tool of national security, and demonstrate the legislative will needed to set wrongs right. India is exceptional among democracies in having no legal framework for its intelligence services, nor a system of oversight and accountability for covert operations. For individual officers, the absence of a regulatory law for covert operations creates perverse incentives for wrongdoing: who, after all, would want victims of their criminal acts to tell the story in court? In its absence, kidnapping has been substituted for legal detention, torture for criminal investigation, and the bullet delivered to the back of the skull, for trial. Leaders of all parties, though, have been loath to change the system. For years now, figures like Union Minister Manish Tewari, and former intelligence chiefs, have campaigned for the legal regulation of the intelligence services, arguing that the status quo will end up undermining national security. To continue to ignore these voices will ensure the destruction of the intelligence services, and threaten the security of the republic they are charged with defending.

Divesting to bridge the deficit

The government could recompense retail investors by selling its shares in SUUTI exclusively to them. Retail investors will get to own some blue chips, and the capital market will get some depth.
The Specified Undertaking of Unit Trust of India (SUUTI, for short), formed specifically to take over the regular income schemes of the Unit Trust of India, has been in the news recently. Reversing an earlier decision to form an asset management company to take it over, the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs recently decided to encash some blue chip shares held by it. The earlier proposal, while being technically and theoretically sound, would be time-consuming and will not suit a government in a great hurry to raise money to bridge its deficit by March, A divestment of some of SUUTIs prized shareholdings, on the other hand, will be a quicker way to

meet fiscal targets. The government holds through SUUTI 20.72 per cent of Axis Bank with a market value of over Rs.8,060 crore. It also owns 11.3 per cent of ITC (Rs.19,800 crore) and 8.2 percent of L&T (Rs.6,640 crore). A sale of these would fetch the government over Rs.34,500 crore at current prices. Assuming that the modalities of the sale could be gone through in the remaining less-than two months of the current fiscal year, the disinvestment target of Rs.40,000 crore will be very nearly met. Though the 2G spectrum auctions are on course to exceed initial expectations, the boost in disinvestment proceeds will strengthen government finances and make the target of reining in fiscal deficit at less than 4.8 per cent of GDP that much easier. That said, it is important to choose the correct method of selling these shares. The objective is not only to meet financial targets but also fulfil some of the broad objectives of the disinvestment programme. Over the years, the government had adopted ingenious methods to meet its disinvestment targets, including sale to state undertakings, buybacks, cross-holdings, special dividends and setting up of exchange-traded funds. None of these benefit the common man. The disinvestment programme has theoretically espoused retail investors interests. The vision statement of the Department of Disinvestment seeks to promote peoples ownership of shares through disinvestment and spread the equity culture. Over the years, however, the government has ignored retail investors, offering them mere token incentives such as a small discount in the few share offerings of public sector companies. In contrast, large investors have benefited substantially. In fact, the capital market regulator SEBI introduced new schemes that completely bypassed small shareholders. The government could recompense retail investors by selling its shares in SUUTI exclusively to them. That way, retail investors will get to own some blue chips, and the capital market will get some depth.

Disquieting process
In a country and in a region that has witnessed prolonged conflict, there can be no quarrel with the proposition that the smallest chance for peace has to be grasped. But the recently launched talks between the Pakistan government and the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan give rise to too many disquieting questions, including about the kind of peace Pakistan wants, and the Pakistani states vision of itself. After months of contradictory statements, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharifs acceptance of the TTPs long-standing offer of talks came in the midst of a ruthless bombing campaign by the militants from Karachi to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and right after 20 soldiers were killed near the North Waziristan tribal area. Representatives of the two sides have already met once to plan a roadmap for the negotiations. The TTP is not participating directly, but through interlocutors in two of Pakistans Islamic parties, the Jamat-i-Islami and one faction of the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, almost as if these were its political wing. One of the TTPs negotiators is the former head of the Lal Masjid, the Islamabad mosque that under him became a terrorist stronghold. These representatives will be accountable to a 10-member Taliban committee. Through its own interlocutors, the government has said that talks must be held within the framework of the countrys Constitution and that their scope be limited to insurgency-affected areas. It wants the TTP to stop its terrorist attacks, and a time frame fixed for talks. It is yet not known if the Taliban and the government are on the same page on these points.

This is not the first time that Islamabad has tried to make peace with the militants. Every previous effort failed because the Taliban refused to submit to the states writ. Each time they came back stronger, their network of militancy in Pakistan expanding constantly, while the states own confusion on militancy and jihad helped Islamists occupy a large share of the national mindspace. It has come to a point where the Taliban now dictate terms, confident too with their brethren Taliban in Afghanistan on the ascendant. If Pakistans political leadership and its security establishment had at all absorbed the lessons of 2001, they would have been doing everything to prevent a repeat of history after the drawdown of foreign troops from Afghanistan. Instead, what appears to have trumped again is Pakistans desire for influence in Afghanistan, plus the delusion that it can somehow control the Taliban and other militants on both sides of the Durand Line. It is hard to escape the feeling that the regions instability is going to get worse. India has to be on guard.

A chance not to be squandered

The Bill now placed before Parliament is the best chance yet to enact a ground-breaking law for an estimated 70 million people with impairments an overwhelming majority of whom, and their care-givers, live in conditions of abject poverty and deprivation. The definition of disability in the Bill is a big departure: it means all long-term physical, mental, intellectual and sensory impairments which, in interaction with barriers in the environment, hinder persons effective participation in society on an equal basis. As many as 19 impairments are sought to be accorded legal protection, as opposed to seven under the 1995 Persons with Disabilities Act. Correspondingly, the proportion of reservations is proposed to be increased to 5 per cent from the existing 3 per cent. The provision to ensure that the disabled enjoy legal capacity on an equal basis with every other person is a strong protection, especially for people with mental retardation. And finally, the incorporation of penal provisions to ensure accountability for law enforcement a lacuna in the current law could potentially bridge the gap between professed intentions and practice. The issue of disabilities has seldom in the past been regarded as politically divisive and the Bill stands a fair chance of mustering the support of parties across the political spectrum. Moreover, the constituents in the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance government were instrumental in the incorporation of the question on disability in the 2001 decennial population census. This was a step that perhaps has permanently reversed the earlier exclusion of this segment from a crucial national exercise in post-Independence India. Similarly, the political parties of the Left had always supported the passage of important social legislation. Members of both Houses should demonstrate a strong sense of purpose, urgency and sensitivity to make a new law a reality during the current term of Parliament, overcoming the continuing impasse on various other counts. While the concerns expressed by well-meaning non-governmental organisations may be valid in principle, they should weigh the huge practical gains to be made from seeing through this Bill, rather than wait for eternity for the perfect piece of legislation. Parliament could consider incorporating a provision in the new law, mandating that revenues from the levy on corporate social responsibility be channelled to promote employment for the disabled. The disabled are said to constitute the single largest minority in society, as per the

World Health Organization and the World Bank report of 2011. Legal protections would go a long way to promote their full participation in society as equal members.

FEB 10 Road tolls and resentments

The recent attacks by Maharashtra Navnirman Sena activists on toll booths in Maharashtra are to be condemned. However valid their protest against paying road toll may appear, it does not legitimise violence. Such acts at one level exposes the uncertainties involved in collecting toll, which could potentially harm plans to build an extensive road network. At another level, they highlight public concern over opaque ways of determining road-user charges. The government, which is trying to find ways to ensure safe ways of toll collection, must bear in mind that both issues are inextricably linked. Since 2000, the Central government has been promoting the levy of toll as an important tool to finance road construction. It now considers toll as being indispensable to attract private investment. The existing rules permit investors on road projects to charge users for an agreed period and retain the amount collected. To the investor, the projected rate of return of 14 to 16 per cent looks attractive. The Central government plans to build the bulk of the 10,000 km of national highways and 1,000 km of expressways in the next four years as toll roads, with private investment. State governments are taking a similar route to upgrade road networks. However, in recent times investors have started to complain that their revenues are less than projected because of imprecise traffic estimates. As a 2012 study on Indian toll roads done by Fitch Rating, an international company that evaluates project finance, shows, the figures of actual usage of many roads are less than the projected figures. Protests against tolls only add to their woes and increase risks, developers lament. These issues need quick remedies, and so does the plight of users. Unlike other parts of the world where alternative toll-free roads are available in a given route, in India there are hardly any. Those who find the user charges steep and want to take an alternative route, even if it is longer and winding, have no option. Governments too overlook the improvement of alternative routes, to reduce leakage of toll revenue. Second, as cities expand rapidly, toll roads on the periphery, originally conceived as inter-city roads, become part of the city. The toll plan does not accommodate such changes in travel patterns. This causes hardships to users and increases resentment. Another contention is that even before roads are completed, toll charges commence. It is possible to remove distrust about tolls by bringing in transparency in the contracting process. The projected traffic volumes, estimated revenue collection and details of actual amounts collected should be available in the public domain. The long-term solution, however, lies in treating roads as a public good and spending more government funds on developing them.

Memorial excesses

The Congress government in Maharashtra is gripped by memorial mania. It has sanctioned Rs.100 crore to build a grand memorial for Chhatrapati Shivaji, the Maratha ruler, on an islet in the Arabian Sea, about 2.5 km off Nariman Point in Mumbai. The State government approved this project in 2009, called for designs and even planned to spend Rs.350 crore on it. However, the project did not move forward. If the approaching election is one reason behind the revival of the project, the commencement of work on a 182-metre-tall statue of Sardar Patel, in the adjoining State of Gujarat, is another. The Patel statue, which it is claimed would be the tallest in the world when completed, has provided the Narendra Modi government and the Bharatiya Janata Party high political visibility. The Gujarat government is aggressively pursuing the project. This in turn seems to have created a sense of urgency in the Congress. It appears that the Maharashtra government, which originally planned a 94-m-tall Shivaji statue, is planning to increase the height significantly. Though the government has not yet announced the revised financial estimate for the Shivaji memorial, the final figures are bound to match the grandeur of the Rs.2,063-crore Gujarat project. Political one-upmanship between the two parties is on, and the casualty is public money and space. For many years, political parties have indiscriminately imposed statues of leaders on Indian cities. They have not spared road junctions, traffic islands and even footpaths, leading to hardships and safety issues. It was only in January 2013 that the Supreme Court ordered the State governments not to permit any more statues that would affect traffic in public spaces. In a similar way, the construction of large memorials too requires regulation. Their claim to serve a public purpose must be tested. Governments often try to legitimise memorial projects as efforts to create public spaces. They point to amenities such as exhibitions, museums, auditoriums and parks built along with them. Any attempt to improve and expand public spaces is to be welcomed, but parties in power cannot use it as an excuse to install statues and symbols, which would only serve their agenda. Installing memorials in urban spaces is a colonial legacy, and this practice has to be discontinued. Only genuine collective remembrance of people and events, such as the Bhopal gas tragedy, can be encouraged. The government too has to get its priorities right. For instance, in Maharashtra, many heritage structures are in need of protection and assistance. Instead of mindlessly spending money on gigantic memorials, it would serve the public good if it is spent on conserving neglected heritage structures.

FEB 13 Publish and perish

In a distressing pattern that has come to define the fate of publishing in India, another book whimsically determined to have transgressed cultural sensitivities, has been withdrawn from circulation. Bowing to the diktats of a Delhi-based Hindutva group, Penguin Books India has agreed, in an out-of court- settlement, to recall, pulp and destroy all copies of Indologist Wendy Donigers 2009 bestseller, The Hindus: An Alternative History. The trouble for Penguin Books started with a 2010 legal notice by a Hindu fundamentalist group, Shiksha Bachao Andolan, asking that the publisher and the author unconditionally apologise for the book and withdraw it. By 2013 Penguin Books was enmeshed in a legal maze, fighting a civil suit as well as two

criminal complaints. Penguin Books is an international publishing giant with a record of standing its ground in the face of the worst intimidation. As Kenan Malik pointed out in an article in The Hindu, the same publisher had shown exemplary courage in the defence of The Satantic Verses, arguing that what was at stake was the future of free speech itself. Against this sterling backdrop, and given its not inconsiderable resources, Penguin was unarguably in a position to fight a longer legal battle in defence of Wendy Donigers right to be read, and by implication the right of every Indian to choose what she wants to read. That the publisher allowed itself to be browbeaten into submission by a little-known outfit that saw no contradiction in its own sweeping slander of the author among other things, the petitioner called her sex hungry is a comment on the illiberalism incrementally taking India in its sweep. To an extent this was unavoidable because the churn in Indian politics was inevitably leading to a heightened awareness about community identities and group rights. However, sensibilities have become so susceptible to hurt that virtually anything written can be contested and asked to be withdrawn. The intolerance, visible especially on the social media, is towards anything seen as modern and forward-looking, with the unofficial censors assuming the right to attack and abuse at will. This twin intimidation of censorship combined with licence has flourished all the more in a political environment increasingly supportive of moral policing and guilty of an almost kneejerk willingness to ban books. The Maharashtra government banned Shivaji: Hindu King in Islamic India, under pressure from vandals who attacked the Bhandarkar Oriental Research Institute in protest. More recently, cartoon depictions of B.R. Ambedkar had to be withdrawn from NCERT text-books. A quarter century after The Satanic Verses, the written word seems to be more and more under threat.

Challenges for a new IOA

For more than 14 months, the Indian Olympic Association (IOA) stubbornly refused to listen to reason. It engaged in a no-win stand-off with the International Olympic Committee (IOC), staking the countrys Olympic future. It drew contempt for its officials amidst a power struggle, before accepting the inevitable. Suspended by the IOC in December 2012 for violation of the Olympic Charter, the IOA eventually bowed to every diktat of the former in holding fresh elections on February 9 under IOC-dictated rules. This has paved the way for Indias return to the Olympic fold. What started off as a tussle between the Union government and the IOA regarding the implementation of the National Sports Code, ended up in a cleansing operation that kept out officials charge-framed by courts from the elections ordered by the IOC. The IOC advocates principles of good governance while the IOA has through the years tried to hide behind the cloak of autonomy ordained in the Charter. The government, faced with criticism both within and outside Parliament about poor administration of sports in the country, had started tightening the rules governing the IOA and the national federations, when the IOC slapped the suspension on India.

The quick response of the IOC in lifting the suspension to enable the Indian tricolour to be flown at the ongoing Winter Olympics at Sochi, Russia, showed that it was completely satisfied with a repentant IOA. The IOC might have managed to push through more stringent clauses than that could have been possible in other times while demanding clarity to the IOA constitution. But problem areas still remain. The IOA could be expected to bargain hard with the government in order to retain what is left of its autonomy and that of the national federations when the draft National Sports Development Bill is amended. The 25 per cent representation in the Executive to Athletes Commission members, as incorporated in the draft, is far from reality. The continuation of State Olympic associations as voting-members in the IOA, in a clear attempt to manipulate vote banks, is much against the provisions in the Olympic Charter, and the wishes of the IOC and the government. National federations in boxing, fencing and taekwondo remain suspended by the respective international federations and were barred from voting in the recent IOA elections. The IOA needs to facilitate their quick return to international sports. Faction feuds within federations should be tackled urgently, and so too questions related to the democratic functioning of the sports bodies that have come up in court cases. The IOA chief, N. Ramachandran, who represents a new phase and has taken over in challenging circumstances, has his task cut out.

Dealing with new lows

Even for a country with a long and unedifying history of parliamentary pandemonium, nothing can be as shameful and disgraceful as the use of pepper spray by a member on his peers to disrupt proceedings. Vijayawada MP Lagadapati Rajagopal, one of six Congress lawmakers expelled for disorderly behaviour earlier, wielded this weapon in the Lok Sabha in a desperate bid to stall the introduction of the Telangana Bill. The Speaker herself was affected by the lachrymatory substance, and quite a few members required medical attention. Mr. Rajagopals claim that he used pepper spray in self-defence is absurd. Another member has been accused of brandishing a knife, but he has denied it, claiming what he was holding was a microphone, probably one wrenched from its fixture. Parliamentary security was perhaps prepared for what many saw as the final battle for Telangana as the time came to introduce the contentious Bill that will pave the way for the reorganisation of Andhra Pradesh. One MP had threatened to set himself on fire if the Bill was introduced, but no one could have expected that assorted weaponry would find its way inside for actual use. Many a distressed observer of bedlam in the House had been dreading such an incident, and it was only a matter of time before a desperate member went beyond routine ruckus. Speaker Meira Kumar should no more restrict herself to feeble entreaties to maintain decorum but adopt sterner measures, ranging from ordering eviction to allowing criminal prosecution in select instances. Legislative business is often the casualty of unseemly behaviour and even though Home Minister Sushilkumar Shinde managed to introduce the Telangana Bill, the principal opposition, the Bharatiya Janata Party, doubts whether it had been introduced at all. The incident raises the question whether Parliament should go the way of State legislatures and resort to eviction of unruly members to ensure the smooth functioning of the House. En masse eviction of whole groups of legislators is quite common in State Assemblies. Parliament has been more democratic and tolerant but this restraint has often led to a small group of obstreperous members blocking

key legislation, such as the womens reservation bill. The Congress must bear responsibility for the present logjam, as it has been unable to build enough support through discussions. The BJPs stand has been ambiguous: it supports the formation of Telangana in principle, wants the concerns of Seemandhra to be addressed, blames the UPA for the mess in Parliament and has demanded that there should first be order in the House. Political consensus may be the ideal way, but legislative activity cannot forever be hostage to deliberate disorder.

A formal exercise
Being an interim budget and a vote on account for four months, Railway Minister Mallikarjun Kharges maiden budget could not have gone farther than it has. It was only a holding operation to enable the Indian Railways to spend for the first four months of the next financial year, till a new Railway Minister presents a full-fledged budget for 2014-15. Like the Union government, the Indian Railways has been on autopilot for some time, given the scandals and crises that have confronted UPA-II. Despite these limitations, the Railways have done reasonably well, considering the slowdown in the economy. Freight loading and operations have done well, but there has been a dent in passenger traffic, more so in terms of earnings. Mr. Kharge appears confident of finishing the current fiscal year with a surplus of about Rs.8,000-plus crore. One has to wait and see if the current trend is sustained and if that becomes possible. All that the Minister could announce were 73 new trains, extension of rail linkages to the Northeast, 24 surveys for new lines or doubling projects, and a new generation of superfast trains with dynamic fares. He has taken a leaf out of the airlines to introduce this concept of dynamic pricing, where passengers could get tickets at a premium price, depending on demand. The Railway Minister has projected an annual plan of Rs.64,305 crore, of which Rs.30,223 crore will come from Central budgetary support. There will be no increase in freight or passenger fares. Now that a Railway Tariff Authority will become functional in the coming year, any change in the fare structure will be handled by it, taking the difficult political decisions out of the hands of the Minister or the government. Unfortunately, the operating ratio is still hovering around 90 per cent, creating serious concerns about efficiency. As for the political leadership, unlike UPA-I, where one Railway Minister Lalu Prasad continued through the innings, UPA-II has seen a huge turnround of Railway Ministers on account of coalition politics. After 18 years, a Congress Minister has presented the budget, even though it is an interim budget. Given the importance of the Indian Railways, it is to be hoped that the next government would ensure continuity in terms of policy and administration. Mr. Kharge has announced a few green initiatives, but expects the private sector to chip in by means of corporate social responsibility programmes. But there have to be innovative plans for the private sector to invest in the railway system. Any future public-private partnership in the Railways will depend on what is on offer, and a careful strategy to attract investments needs to be worked out.

A pragmatic engagement
The U.S. decision to end the boycott of Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi is part of a recognisable pattern of pragmatic State Department engagement with politicians or political

groups it perceives as carrying heft on the national scene. Consider for instance how it swallowed its anathema toward the Muslim Brotherhood to engage with the group when it took power in Egypt; or its outreach to the Taliban in Afghanistan. There are many other examples from across the world. With Indias political churning ahead of the elections, it was only a matter of time before the U.S. decided to buy itself some insurance for any post-election possibilities. This is the context to Thursdays meeting between U.S. Ambassador Nancy Powell and Mr. Modi, the BJPs prime ministerial candidate. The State Department holds that its 2005 decision to refuse him a visa remains unchanged. Mr. Modis then existing tourist/business visa was revoked under sections of the U.S. Immigration and Nationality Act that make any foreign government official who was responsible for or directly carried out, at any time, particularly severe violations of religious freedom ineligible for a visa; his then proposed travel plan to the U.S. was declared not for a purpose that qualified for a diplomatic visa. The decision, three years after the riots, came when the Vajpayee-led National Democratic Alliance was no longer in power at the Centre. It is clear that if Washington needs to reverse its stand on the visa question, it will do that too. What this means is that Washingtons self-interest cannot be the yardstick with which to address an issue that goes to the heart of Indias nationhood. Mr. Modi has been absolved by an investigation team of any direct role in the Gujarat riots in which more than 1,000 people, mainly Muslims, were killed; the clean chit has been accepted by a trial court. But questions remain about his moral and political accountability for a pogrom that took place under his watch. These questions will not go away whatever the change in the U.S. position. Also, electoral victories clearly do not constitute a clean chit. The Congress has been re-elected many times since the 1984 anti-Sikh riots in which several of its leaders were alleged to be involved; it continues to be haunted by that dark episode. Citing Mr. Modis re-election three times since 2002 as the measure of peoples trust is much like Prime Minister Manmohan Singhs defence that all the corruption charges against his government related to UPA-I and do not matter as the people entrusted the coalition with governance for another five years after that.

Spectrum of success
After the two relatively unsuccessful attempts to sell 2G spectrum in November 2012 and March 2013, it was a case of third time lucky for the government as it hit pay dirt with the latest round of auctioning that ended on Thursday. With all the spectrum on offer in the 900 MHz band sold out and 80 per cent of that offered in the 1800 MHz band sold for a total of Rs.61,162 crore which is substantially higher than the reserve price the government is patting itself on the back for what it calls a big success. Yet, this has to be viewed in the backdrop of a couple of issues. First, this auction was critical for two of the biggest telecom operators in the country, Bharti Airtel and Vodafone, because their licences are set to expire later this year, and to continue in business they had to pick up spectrum irrespective of the price. So, an element of desperation was built into the bidding from the moment it began, pushing up valuations. With a new entrant in the form of Reliance Jio Infocomm queering the pitch by adding to the competitive element, it is not surprising that the final values of the 900 MHz spectrum for Delhi

and Mumbai were 105 per cent and 72 per cent more than the reserve price. Of course, it could be argued that this is exactly how markets work and as the owner of the spectrum the government is entitled to get the best price. That brings us to the second point. The auction can be truly termed as successful only when telecom services develop at affordable prices for the consumer. If the high spending by operators in the auction forces them to raise tariffs, the objective will be lost. This is exactly what happened in the 3G arena where companies outbid each other paying big bucks for spectrum, only to discover that the market was not willing to absorb the high tariffs. The net result is that 3G services have not taken off in a big way. The signals on tariff now are mixed, with the operators complaining about the money they had to cough up for the spectrum which they are bound to anyway but they have stopped short of saying that tariffs will rise. The competition in the market will probably ensure that tariffs do not shoot up immediately, at least for voice telephony. Groaning as they are under high debt levels, it is unlikely that telecom companies will be able to convince banks to lend more to them now; banks are under pressure from the RBI anyway as they are over-exposed to the sector. It remains to be seen how these companies manage their funds. Yet, all things considered, the bottomline is this: the auction and the money put on the table by the operators prove, yet again, the attractiveness of the telecom market in the country, notwithstanding the fact that it is already 900 million connections strong.

Story of an end foretold

Sometimes, the end is foretold at the beginning. Arvind Kejriwal was quite reluctant to assume office as Chief Minister of Delhi, and the lack of a majority of its own for his Aam Aadmi Party seemed only part of the reason. The crusader against corruption did not want anything to do with the Congress or the Bharatiya Janata Party; it was almost as if he were afraid of being tainted by mere association with them. From the time he was sworn in, he was keener on projecting his party as a serious national-level alternative to the two principal national parties than on governing Delhi. Delhi was a stage for his theatrics, a campaign platform before the Lok Sabha election. The thrust was on politically exposing the Congress and the BJP, and not on solving the small, everyday problems of Delhi. Mr. Kejriwal obviously wanted to demonstrate what he would not be allowed to do as Chief Minister, and not what he could do as head of the government. Given the paucity of time before the parliamentary election, he must have thought it safer to approach the people as the leader of a party whose government was thwarted by political rivals than as a Chief Minister who was unable to deliver on his promises. Thus, the Jan Lokpal Bill was seen as the ideal issue over which to create circumstances for his own exit. Having built a political party of a movement that had the Jan Lokpal Bill as its rallying point, the AAP convener believed he would find popular support for staking all on the Bill. But the manner in which his government manoeuvred the Bill appeared to be aimed at inviting opposition rather than at seeing it passed in the Assembly. An honest attempt could have been made to follow constitutional procedures in pushing through the Bill, making it politically difficult for the AAPs rivals to oppose it. The all-or-nothing attitude Mr. Kejriwal adopts on every issue can do little to further his partys agenda of change.

If Mr. Kejriwal achieved anything at all in the Jan Lokpal fiasco, it was in tarring the Congress and the BJP with the same broad brush. For good measure, he brought in a new factor: their supposed support for the Reliance Industries head, Mukesh Ambani. The linking of the opposition to the Bill to the First Information Report lodged against Mr. Ambani on the gas pricing controversy seems a stretch, but Mr. Kejriwal was looking for a conspiracy that could tie the Congress and the BJP together. By turning the movement against corruption into a political party, Mr. Kejriwal took the first step in trying to change the system from the inside. But when he was expected to take the next step as the head of a government even if it be of a minority government with uncertain support he fell short.

Excitement and concerns

For a sector that is deep in trouble, the show that the automobile industry put up at the 12th Auto Expo that ended in Delhi last week was a grand one indeed. With 70 new vehicles being unveiled or launched across the spectrum from two-wheelers to cars and heavy vehicles, presence of all the big players in the global auto industry and milling crowds the final weekend alone attracted more than 2,00,000 visitors according to industry body SIAM it may be difficult to believe that this is an industry in recession. Yet the truth is that sales of commercial vehicles have been falling for the last two years and were down 20.93 per cent in the first ten months of this fiscal year. Passenger car sales are at their worst in a decade, having fallen 9.34 per cent in the April-January period. And with high costs of financing, falling freight volumes and adverse sentiment, only the brave can predict a quick turnaround for the industry. What the celebration at the biennial industry jamboree underlines though is the potential that auto companies, especially those producing cars, see in the growing Indian market. This is also proved by their launching vehicles specifically designed for local consumers. Some of the big multinationals such as Suzuki, Hyundai and Ford have turned their Indian operations into bases to produce for markets abroad. In addition to the growth slowdown, the industry is up against a couple of other challenges. The government has notified fuel efficiency norms that will kick in from 2017 based on average fleet weight for passenger cars. While this is good news for buyers, who can look forward to cars with higher mileage than what is available now, for manufacturers this means a re-look at their strategies. They have to push out more high-mileage vehicles to counterbalance the sale of fuelguzzling SUVs. They will also have to develop more efficient engines and associated technologies, which could mean higher costs. Passing on such costs may not always be possible in a competitive market. Car manufacturers will also have to focus on designing safer vehicles. A recent study by a U.K. agency pointed out how some of the most popular, high-selling models in India failed crash tests. Car buyers are not going to buy the argument that average vehicle speeds in India are much lower than in the West and hence those safety standards are not applicable here. Along with the industry, the government needs to do some soul-searching as the exploding numbers of vehicles is causing chaos on the roads, especially in the cities. At least the metros need to have well-thought-out public transportation policies that will obviate the need for citizens to take their personal vehicles out on a daily basis.

UPA-IIs swan song

The interim budget for the fiscal year 2014-15 presented by Finance Minister P. Chidambaram predictably did not contain any surprises. There has been limited leeway to announce spectacular measures either on the revenue side or the expenditure side. Whatever changes that have been proposed, such as a reduction in excise duty on many categories of automobiles, will be reviewed by the government that will take office after the general election. Yet, the last budget of the UPA-II government does not pretend to be a purely fiscal exercise, merely fulfilling the constitutional obligation of seeking a vote-on-account for government expenditure over the next few months until a new government takes office after the election. The temptation to highlight the achievements of the government permeates the Finance Ministers budget speech. On the one side, the budget presents a healthy fiscal picture but on the other side there are no concrete measures to rein in subsidies. In fact, non-Plan expenditure has exceeded the estimates for fiscal 2013-14 even after rolling over some Rs.35,000 crore of subsidies. For the next year (2014-15) Plan expenditure has been estimated at Rs.555,322 crore and non-Plan expenditure at Rs.1,207,892 crore. Special significance is attached to the Rs.115,000-crore allocation for food subsidies under the National Food Security Act, which will be rolled out all over the country as a landmark achievement of the UPA-II government. The government can claim credit for containing the fiscal deficit during the current year at 4.6 per cent of the GDP, below the red line of 4.8 per cent committed to by Mr. Chidambaram. However, some of the gloss gets diminished when one considers that the revenue deficit has remained sticky at over 3 per cent. Fiscal consolidation should not be achieved by pruning growth-inducing Plan expenditure, a point that is particularly valid in the context of the ambitious projection of a 4.1 per cent fiscal deficit for the next year. Economic growth, a key determinant of fiscal health, has been an enigma. As against the claim that the UPA-I and II governments have delivered above the trend growth of 6.2 per cent, recent indicators are not flattering. The economy is struggling to get into a GDP growth orbit of above 5 per cent. There has been a commendable improvement in the current account with the deficit projected to be at $45 billion in 2013-14 as against $88 billion last year. There is much that a new government should do in furthering this budgets vision insofar as they are non-controversial, and in striving for a much needed consensus in, for instance, reforming indirect and direct tax laws.

A glimmer of Syrian hope

The Geneva II conference on Syria ended on Saturday in a predictable standoff between President Bashar al Assads regime and a section of the opposition National Council for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces (SNC), but it was remarkable that the talks, held indirectly with United Nations and Arab League mediator Lakhdar Brahimi moving between the two sides, took place at all. The conflict will enter its fourth year on March 15; it has so far killed 136,000 people and displaced over two million amid atrocities by all involved. Even a short truce a few days ago for the residents of the besieged city of Homs to leave or acquire food was negotiated not in Geneva but by the Homs Governor, Talal al Barazi, and the UNs resident coordinator, Yacoub El Hillo. Meanwhile, positions at Geneva II where the parties were to start

implementing the plan reached at Geneva I on June 30, 2012 remain bitterly entrenched. Damascus brands the opposition terrorists and insists that Mr. Assad will not step down; the SNC, for its part, only attended under pressure from its Western and West Asian allies and after a series of internal disagreements. Of its 119 members, only 75 attended the vote in Istanbul, voting 58-14 to go to Geneva II; the representatives of Syrias 10 per cent Kurdish minority also boycotted the Swiss talks. Any chance of wider participation had ended on January 16, when the officially sanctioned opposition National Coordination Committee (NCC) said it would not attend. Even worse complications obtain. The Syrian situation has been called a proxy war involving the West, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar on the opposition side, and Russia and Iran plus the Hezbollah on the regimes side, but certain opposition leaders resent being used thus, and government officials speak of being treated like vassals by Iran, Russia, and the Hezbollah. In addition, the al Qaedalinked faction, the Islamic State of Iraq and al Shams (ISIS), holds the provincial capital of Rakka in central Syria, and serves a purpose both for Damascus, which tells the West that if the government fell al Qaeda would win, and for the SNC, which submerges its internal differences to fight ISIS. Furthermore, Iran, which could well have some leverage on Mr. Assad, had no option but to pull out of Geneva II when Washington stated the precondition that Mr. Assad step down in any transition process. The one glimmer of hope in all this is that since October 2013, opposition and government members have been meeting privately at the Chteau de Bossey in Switzerland. As the United States and Russia will almost certainly back any agreement they reach, it is imperative that those involved continue talking and that all others stay away.

Above politics and passion

It is a sign of the expanding vision of the Indian judiciary that it has reaffirmed the law relating to the correct and constitutional use of sovereign clemency powers without being weighed down by the political and high-profile nature of the Rajiv Gandhi assassination case. The court has stuck to its humanitarian outlook, placing emphasis on the continued relevance of fundamental rights even after a convicts death sentence has been confirmed and mercy petitions rejected. Coming less than a month after a three-judge Bench unequivocally laid down that unexplained delay on the part of the executive in disposing of mercy petitions is a supervening circumstance warranting commutation of death sentences to life terms, the Supreme Courts latest verdict extending that relief to V. Sriharan alias Murugan, T. Suthendraraja alias Santhan and A.G. Perarivalan is least surprising. There was very little scope for it to deviate from its sound and well-reasoned earlier verdicts. It was quite obvious that the passage of 11 long years since their mercy pleas first reached the President would render any move to execute them unconstitutional. The court has also clarified that life imprisonment means [until the] end of ones life, but has noted that the life term would be subject to provisions relating to remission by the appropriate government under the Code of Criminal Procedure. It has wisely refrained from any discussion on the roles played by Murugan and Santhan, both committed LTTE members, or Perarivalan, an Indian national. One unsavoury aspect needs to be taken note of. There was an attempt in Tamil Nadu to give an ethno-linguistic angle to the campaign to save the three convicts from the gallows. The

humanitarian demand to abolish capital punishment was overshadowed by efforts to portray the three men as innocent Tamils. It is good that the court had laid down a sound jurisprudential foundation for its verdict well before it granted relief to the Rajiv Gandhi case trio, lest someone read in it any unseen influence of emotions whipped up by some political elements. There is bound to be a view that the states failure to execute convicted killers and conspirators may mean that justice had not been fully rendered to those killed or maimed in the blast. Rather than looking at it as inadequate justice, an enlightened citizenry should see conviction and imprisonment as sufficient punishment that would give true closure to a dastardly offence, and not execution, which even in the case of the most brutal offences would not be in keeping with the values of a civilised community. Verdicts such as this would create a humane atmosphere and pave the way for the eventual abolition of the death penalty.

Vaticans moral imperative

The UN Committee on the Rights of the Child has in a report indicted the Catholic Church for acts of clerical child abuse, a scandal that has dogged it for more than a decade now. Acting under the authority of the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child, to which the Vatican is a signatory, the panel has recommended that the Church remove priests suspected or known to have resorted to abuse, open its records on abusers and the bishops who covered up for them, and turn the cases over to the civil justice system rather than let the Vaticans own justice department handle them behind closed doors. The committee has blamed the Vatican for valuing its own reputation above the protection of child-victims, and maintaining a code of silence. It has also urged the Holy See to ensure that issues of reproductive health, including access to information about contraception and preventing HIV, are included in the curriculum in Catholic schools, and to use its moral authority to condemn discrimination against children raised by same-sex couples. The Vatican promptly hit back, accusing the committee of exceeding its mandate and adopting the prejudiced positions of anti-Catholic advocacy groups. Reacting to the recommendation that the Church amend canon law to allow abortion in some cases, it complained that religious freedom was being trampled upon, saying that the committee had gone beyond its competence and interfered in the moral and doctrinal positions of the Catholic Church. The Vatican accused the committee of having ignored its unique status and its efforts to address the abuse crisis. Even more problematic is the Vaticans effort to wash its hands of broader responsibility for the staggering scale of priestly misdeeds. The argument is that the Church is not comparable to a global business operation and cannot be expected to keep in check all clergymen in all parts of the world. This is a dodge. The committee has rightly said that by ratifying the convention the Vatican committed itself to implementing the convention not only on the territory of the Vatican City state, but also as the supreme power of the Catholic Church through individuals and institutions placed under its authority. Pope Francis has generated hopes of a new dawn, but on the question of abuse, he is simply not there yet, although last year he termed it the shame of the Church. His predecessor Benedict XVI apologised to abuse victims and called for zero tolerance, but rhetoric seems to have outstripped real action. The Church hierarchy should appreciate the urgency of the issue. There will be a heavy moral cost involved if it insists on looking for legal loopholes.

Chaotic endgame
End-stage mistakes grab disproportionately greater attention than blunders at the beginning. With the Congress and the Central government bungling at almost every stage in the handling of the agitation for a new state of Telangana, the mismanagement of the vote on the Andhra Pradesh Reorganisation Bill should have been no surprise. The chaos and confusion, and the blackout of television coverage, on the day the Bill was passed in the Lok Sabha all pale into insignificance when seen in the context of the larger failures to find a political consensus, and to reduce differences over crucial issues in the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh. Whether it was due to a technical glitch, or a tactical glitch as the Leader of the Opposition, Sushma Swaraj, described it, the blackout of coverage by Lok Sabha TV was only a minor part in the Telangana endgame. Flip-flops and cynical political manoeuvring were part of the Congress strategy right from the beginning on the Telangana issue. Petty electoral calculations ensured that the party leadership led the government in the decision-making process. Indeed, too much was left to the very end as part of a deliberate strategy of buying time and averting a debate and discussion in Parliament. The highly charged spectacle of violence and disruption in the Lok Sabha over the Telangana Bill in the last few days is the culmination of the cumulative mistakes of the Congress and the Centre. If the Congress can take any credit from these sordid happenings it is in the browbeating and arm-twisting of the Bharatiya Janata Party. Although the BJP had a pronounced pro-Telangana stance even before the Congress committed itself to the bifurcation, the party resorted to doublespeak on the issue in an attempt to discomfit the Congress. But later the Congress managed to put the BJP in a fix, and eventually to lend support to the Bill. The two parties appeared to have read each others mind very well: to blame the other for any failure to pass the Bill. The BJP blinked first. The party, which did not have substantial political stakes in Andhra Pradesh, was hoping the Congress would alienate both pro-Telangana and Seemandhra sections if it failed to push the Bill through. But there was also the danger that the Congress might turn around and blame the BJP for its doublespeak and allowing the Bill to lapse. In the end, the two parties appear to have decided to share the credit for creating Telangana rather than blame each other for failing to have it passed. Irrespective of how the two parties manoeuvre the Bill through the Rajya Sabha, there is very little comfort to be had from such bipartisanship.

Pension deal for veterans

As a parting gift that would presumably fetch some electoral returns from families of exservicemen and serving defence personnel, who represent a vocal vote bank in themselves, the UPA-II government has announced the acceptance of the long-pending demand for one rank, one pension (OROP) for defence veterans. The removal of anomalies in the pension regime, caused following the Fifth and Sixth Pay Commission awards, is only fair and just. Soldiers of the same rank and same length of service should thus receive a similar quantum of pension, regardless of when they retire. Currently, those who retired before 2006 receive less than their counterparts, even their juniors, retiring later. The scheme will cost an estimated Rs.2,000 crore a year, although the interim budget has made a provision only for Rs.500 crore for the current

year. While the details emerge, some scepticism over whether it truly meets the OROP concept or will only provide modified parity in pension, seems to be doing the rounds. But by and large, the decision appears set to benefit some three million defence pensioners from 2014-15. There are 2.4 million retired military personnel in India, besides widow-pensioners and others. In pitching the demand, defence personnel have long argued that they work in a sharply pyramidal system, with retirements coming early on in service unlike their civil service counterparts who serve until the age of 60. While just a few men in uniform make the cut and rise to higher positions in the services, almost every civil servant attains superannuation while at the top of the ladder. This leads to a marked difference in their pensions as well. While other grievances relating to medical and disability benefits and so on remain, OROP is a well-deserved deal for retired defence personnel. While the concerns of veterans welfare are addressed, issues that Indias armed forces are confronted with on the personnel front should not be lost sight of. Just this week, the Standing Committee on Defence in a report tabled in Parliament expressed dismay at the shortage of personnel in the armed forces. It noted that the Army has a record shortage of 9,384 officers: while the authorised strength is 52,859, it is making do with 43,475 officers. Shortages face the Navy and Air Force as well. In the other ranks, the Army is short of 20,561 personnel, while the Navy is short of 1,561 officers and 11,825 sailors. The Air Force is short of 659 officers and 3,674 Airmen. Shortfalls and gaps in force levels need to be realistically assessed and addressed to meet Indias defence needs. It should also be ensured that armed forces personnel continue to get a morale boost in terms of pay, perquisites, working conditions and career prospects.

The politics of remission

Commutation of a death sentence to life imprisonment could be seen as an act of compassion, but a straight leap from capital punishment to wholesale release as has been proposed by the Tamil Nadu government in the case of the Rajiv Gandhi assassination convicts raises the question whether the very object of penal laws is being subverted. If the assassins of a former Prime Minister, who had been sentenced to death, are allowed to walk free on political considerations and on the basis of regional and linguistic passions, public faith in the criminal justice system is bound to erode. The Supreme Court, while commuting the death sentence on three of them, had said the life term was subject to remission by the appropriate government following procedures set down in Section 432 of the CrPC. The haste with which the Tamil Nadu government decided on the release of the seven convicts, overlooking procedural and substantive requirements, was questioned in the Supreme Court, which stayed it. The power of remission, the court had held on an earlier occasion, cannot be exercised arbitrarily but has to be well informed, reasonable and fair to all concerned. In addition, the State has to obtain the opinion of the court that awarded or confirmed the sentence, and in any case remission cannot be wholesale but has to be considered on a case by case basis. It is debatable if justice would require the convicts to remain in prison until the end of their natural life or if the 23 years that they have spent in prison is enough of a punishment. Again, while the law requires consultation with the Centre at the very least, the State has announced its decision and is then going through the motions of consulting the Centre. Setting a three-day deadline for the Centre to convey its view is not merely unreasonable but also goes against norms of interaction in a federal polity. With the

Supreme Court restraining it from altering the status quo, the States action will no doubt be subject to deeper legal scrutiny. A decision on the convicts is bound to have repercussions for Indias foreign and internal security policies, and for States hit by militancy. Arbitrary decisions to release life convicts found guilty of a political assassination may also have another consequence: the erosion of public support for the abolition of capital punishment, as society may tend to view life terms cynically, as an oblique means of releasing convicts after some years. In dealing with those found guilty of killing a former Prime Minister in collaboration with a foreign terror outfit, the judiciary has shown it can stay above political considerations, and displayed a humanistic spirit. Even convicted killers may some day deserve freedom. Any decision to set them free calls for careful consideration; a decision based on regional passions carries with it the danger of creating an emotional disconnect between Tamil Nadu and the rest of India.

The challenge of bad loans

Arising tide of bad loans threatens the ability of banks to continue their business as usual. The problem is particularly severe with public sector banks. Results for the December quarter show their financial position in poor light. Each one of them has been reporting a higher level of nonperforming assets and making larger provision against possible loan losses. Not only is their profitability affected but also the increased provisioning ties up their capital. The financial position of United Bank of India, a Kolkata-based public sector bank (PSB), is said to be so acute that the Reserve Bank of India had to step in and impose severe restrictions on its lending. While some reckless lending in the recent past has landed this bank in trouble, the economic slowdown has stressed the balance sheets of almost every PSB, even those with a stronger tradition of lending and better track record in managing their books. If the slowdown persists, the bad debts will increase and the chances of recovery will diminish. The RBI is naturally concerned. Having flagged the issue of NPAs long before it became a general concern of banks and their stakeholders, the banking regulator has, however, given a clean chit to banks including PSBs from the stability angle. Two sets of related problems confront policy makers. First, the question of recapitalising PSBs to make up for their impaired capital has become a major issue, especially at a time when all banks have been asked to move towards global norms of capital adequacy. For the government-owned banks, now listed on the Indian stock exchanges, there are special challenges. To preserve their public sector character, they have been asked not to dilute the government shareholding to below 50 per cent of their paid-up capital. So for all practical purposes they have to turn to their majority owner, the government, for additional capital. However, while recognising the banks predicament, the Finance Minister has made a niggardly allocation of Rs.11,200 crore in the interim budget for bank recapitalisation, below last years Rs.14,000 crore and well below the current requirements of PSBs. Even in the few cases where the capital market could be accessed, investor response has been lukewarm, as the best-run PSB, State Bank of India, found recently with its qualified institutional placement. Second, the disadvantages of government ownership extend to recovery. Public sector bankers have less flexibility in dealing with problem loans. Finally, who can deny political interference in sanctioning loans as well as in their recovery?

Telangana, at last
After years of struggle, and several rounds of agitation, Telangana is set to come into being as the 29th State of India. That some pain and suffering would accompany the bifurcation was, perhaps, inevitable; but a great deal of the violence and acrimony could have been avoided had the Congress and the Central government acted with greater sensitivity and understanding of the hopes and fears of the peoples in the two regions. But now is the time to look ahead, and try and fulfil the aspirations of the people of Telangana and allay the apprehensions of those of Seemandhra, or the residual Andhra Pradesh state. The residual state is to get special category status for the purpose of Central assistance, and its backward regions will be eligible for a special development package. But concerns still persist about the security of lives and livelihoods of non-Telangana people in Hyderabad, which will be the joint capital of both the states for 10 years. The decision to invest special law and order powers in the Governor to ensure the safety of the residents of Hyderabad goes some way in addressing the apprehensions of those from Seemandhra seen as outsiders in the capital. But doubts have been raised about the propriety of such an arrangement: whether an appointee of the Centre who is not democratically elected by the people of either state could have control over what is essentially a state subject. This arrangement is a compromise between designating Hyderabad as a Union Territory (as demanded by those representing Seemandhra) and making it the capital of Telangana alone. The model is that of Chandigarh, the joint capital of Punjab and Haryana, where the Administratorcum-Punjab Governor and the Adviser to the Administrator are in charge of law and order. In effect, Hyderabad will be akin to a union territory like Chandigarh in the matter of handling of law and order. While the creation of Telangana draws the curtains on a long struggle for statehood, disputes and conflicts over sharing of resources and reallocation of personnel loom ahead. The creation of a new capital for the residual state will in no way limit the interests of the people of Seemandhra on Hyderabad, which has drawn investments from people of both regions. There could have been no solution that was agreeable to both sides, but the Centre could have worked out some compromises in consultation with all the stakeholders instead of imposing a reorganisation that merely defers the problems to a later date. Although politically the Congress appears to have put all its eggs in the Telangana basket, the Centre must ensure that the concerns of the Seemandhra people are addressed satisfactorily. Financial packages alone would not solve the problems.

Back from the brink in Ukraine

Ukraines President Viktor Yanukovych has recognised the increasingly dangerous nature of the situation in his country by announcing early elections and a return to the 2004 Constitution, which will limit the Presidents powers. This follows escalating violence over the last several days, in which according to the Health Ministry 77 people, including police personnel, have been killed and 577 injured. International condemnation was rapid, with U.S. President Barack Obama warning against Ukrainian military involvement and calls for sanctions coming from German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Franois Hollande. Reactions within Ukraine have included the occupation of civic buildings in the western city of Lviv; rail

services between the capital, Kiev, and Lviv were suspended, and at least 45 Ukrainian athletes have returned home from the Winter Olympics in Sochi. The violence caused severe divisions throughout the country, with several police officers siding with or joining the protesters; as it was, the Yanukovych government had long incurred public distrust for corruption and nepotism. In addition, the Presidents own moves had exacerbated the uncertainty; for example, he replaced the head of the armed forces, Colonel-General Volodymyr Zamana, with Admiral Yuriy Ilyin, but without giving reasons. The Defence Ministry also said the military might be used for antiterrorist operations, but legally the government is obliged first to impose a state of emergency, and the armed forces have rightly resisted getting involved. One ugly development has been the rising political star of far-right groups such as Prawy Sektor (Right Sector) and the anti-Semitic Svoboda, the third-largest opposition party. Right Sector says it did not agree to the February 19 truce and that there was nothing to negotiate. The focus now, however, must be on orderly and peaceful progress towards elections which must be impeccably conducted if the country is not to face further crises. That particularly requires genuinely constructive conduct on the part of Russia and the European Union; the latter has been less than straightforward at times, as its earlier association agreement with Ukraine which Mr. Yanukovych abandoned in December 2013 was tied to International Monetary Fund conditions and to closer military cooperation between Ukraine and the EUs NATO-dominated military institutions. Crucially, only 30 per cent of Ukrainians supported the deal, which also incurred Moscows displeasure. Now, however, Ukrainians have an opportunity to make their own decisions about their future in the best possible way, with a democratic election; they must make the most of it.

FEB 24 Democracy in peril

ndian democracy has over time shown a resilience that has been marvelled at the world over. Yet, 67 years after its birth, the worlds largest democracy is faced with a crisis of faith too scarily large to be ignored. As the 15th Lok Sabha comes to an ignominious end, it is no longer possible to put off the question: are we a democracy only in name? Without a proactive course correction, Indias robust record in conducting elections could end up being just that a ritualistic, five-yearly obeisance to democracy that hides the appalling state of the countrys institutions, in particular Parliament which today resembles a wrestling arena. In truth, the comparison would insult the sport of wrestling, which is governed by well laid-out rules and regulations. By contrast, parliamentary misbehaviour would seem to have no boundaries, with new lows marked in every session, and progressively higher levels of tolerance required of presiding officers, who have had to throw up their hands in the face of aggression by those they have been mandated to monitor. Even by this abysmal standard, few could have bargained for what happened in the concluding session of the 15th Lok Sabha. An irate MP from Seemandhra used pepper spray, causing immense distress to fellow- parliamentarians. A dark chapter was added to this saga when the Lok Sabha passed The Andhra Pradesh Re-organisation Bill amidst a TV blackout. There cannot

be a worse commentary on the state of democracy than the blackout of the proceedings of the lower House of Parliament where the collective will of the people is deemed to reside. It would seem only natural then that the 15th Lok Sabha should have recorded the worst performance in more than 50 years; productivity, which was 107 per cent in the third Lok Sabha, scaled a peak of 120 per cent in the seventh, only to crash to 61 per cent in the 15th; the outgoing Lok Sabha passed 177 of the 326 Bills scheduled for passage. Tragically, Indian parliamentarians are second to none in legislative acumen and debating skills as was witnessed during the debates on the Lokpal and Lokayuktas Bill, 2011, as well as on the occasions when the Opposition skewered the executive on its interminable scams. The Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party also set aside their differences to help pass the Bills on the Lokpal and the Telangana state. This shows that with some will, Parliament can yet be salvaged. The time has come for presiding officers to redeem the pledge they have repeatedly made at countless conferences, to evolve and observe a code of conduct for legislators and create strong disincentives against disruption. The start for this has necessarily to be the realisation that Indias future is imperilled if its Parliament is imperilled.

No end to inhumanity
The State of Washington recently joined the ranks of two others in the United States when Governor Jay Inslee suspended all executions during his tenure. Though a welcome move, it is still only a half-measure as the next governor can overturn the moratorium. Eighteen States have abolished the death penalty. Meanwhile, a Circuit Court judge in Arkansas struck down a 2013 statute that allowed the Department of Corrections to use any form of barbiturate (anaesthetic) without making sure if the chosen drug can indeed cause death. Interventions by several States mark a general shift in lethal-injection policies. If the very act of snuffing out life in the name of death penalty is barbaric and has no place in a civilised world, carrying it out by injection makes the act all the more macabre. What makes it particularly repugnant is the complete disregard to many of the vital aspects that define a civilised society. First, prescription drugs are illegally used as part of a three-drug cocktail to achieve the opposite of what they are intended for. The anaesthetic is the first drug injected to put a convict to sleep. But the supply of the anaesthetic drug, sodium thiopental, dried up when pharmaceutical companies in Europe restricted its use for execution. Many States then turned to alternative drugs and the European companies restricted their supply too. With the European Commission imposing export controls on these drugs and the Food and Drug Administration controlling their import, the supplies truly dried up. Second, in their mindless pursuit of carrying out the death penalty, South Dakota in 2012, followed by a few other States, resorted to the unthinkable procuring untested and illegal drugs from compounding pharmacies that are not regulated by the FDA. Third, States have been changing their execution protocols frequently due to drug scarcity; Ohio even started using a single-dose protocol. Since the dosages, and the effectiveness of the drugs in causing painless and immediate death have never before been tested in humans, lethal injections remain nothing but human clinical trials in progress; it is a modern-day equivalent of Nazi doctors experimenting on prisoners. Little wonder that a few convicts have shown visible signs of extreme and prolonged suffering prior to death. These cases fly in the face of the central notion that lethal injection reduces suffering. Finally, an area of extreme concern is the active

involvement of medical practitioners in carrying out executions. The involvement of doctors in administering lethal injections in the name of reducing cruelty defies logic and runs counter to their professional ethic of saving lives.

FEB 25 Giving agriculture its due

There are obviously several dimensions to Indias recent agricultural performance which Finance Minister P. Chidambaram in his budget speech termed as stellar. A week before the budget, Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar had announced that foodgrain production is on course to touch a new record of 263 million tonnes, up from 255.36 million tonnes last year. The good performance is seen with regard to other crops too. Estimates of production of sugarcane, pulses, cotton and oilseeds are also encouraging. A good agricultural season has contained farm prices, and moderating food prices are behind the steep fall in both retail and WPI inflation in January. Just as important, news of a bumper agricultural harvest has, to some extent, dampened inflation expectations. Arguably, the most noticeable feature has been the contribution of agriculture to overall GDP growth this year. The Central Statistical Organisation in its advance estimates has projected growth in agriculture and allied activities at 4.6 per cent during the current year, with overall GDP growing at only 4.9 per cent. Since industry and the usually dependable services sector have disappointed, the farm sector is seen to have almost single-handedly underpinned recent economic growth. Even over a longer period the track record has been good. Over the past ten years, agriculture has grown by around 4 per cent a year on an average, but it must be pointed out that during most of that period the monsoons were satisfactory. It is obvious from recent experience that supportive government policies by themselves cannot keep agricultural production growing at a high rate during periods when the monsoons fail or are below par. The question has therefore been asked whether during 2014-15, the monsoons will continue to be beneficial. With dependence on the monsoons still being high, for next year the contribution of agriculture to economic growth cannot be taken for granted. Ironically, the very success of agriculture has exposed the weakness of some government policies, which are tilted towards cereals, to the detriment of other essential food products. Specifically, the periodic hikes in minimum support prices and open-ended procurement have resulted in an imbalance, leading to a glut in the production of rice. Minimum support prices have in practice become procurement prices, and with State governments adding to it a bonus, the cost of procurement has become high. Besides, storage has been a serious problem. Government godowns are overflowing at a time when cereal inflation is still high. All this suggests that the governments major intervention in the farm sector through minimum support prices needs a closer look.

When all is foul

Whatever the troubles within the Rashtriya Janata Dal, the split in its Bihar Legislature Party seems to have been encouraged and engineered by its rival, the ruling Janata Dal (United). That

the Speaker of the Assembly, Uday Narayan Choudhary, chose to recognise 13 of the rebels in the 22-member Legislature Party as a separate group was surprising as even if their action was considered to be a split, they did not constitute two-thirds of even the Legislature Party, the minimum required for the benefit of exemption from the provisions of the Tenth Schedule, which provides for disqualification on the ground of defection. Indeed, seven of the 13 claimed that their signatures were forged and that they had not left the RJD at all. Evidently, political considerations weighed on the Speakers mind more than the Tenth Schedule. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who is surviving on the support of the Congress and Independents, required six more members for his party to have an absolute majority. At a time when he was involved in propping up an alternative to both the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party at the national level, Mr. Kumar could not have counted on continued Congress support. Moreover, the Congress and the RJD are close to coming to a seat-sharing understanding for the Lok Sabha election, and it would only have been a matter of time before the RJD persuaded the Congress to withdraw support. While the rebels might have had their own reasons for leaving the RJD, the split could not have happened without the blessings of the JD (U) leadership, and the partisanship of the Speaker. The proper course for the rebels to join the JD (U) would have been to resign their seats, and contest elections again on the JD (U) ticket. That they did not do so is also illustrative of the lack of confidence in the JD (U) camp: not much can be left to chance, or the will of the people. Bihar remains one of the crucial States in the Lok Sabha election calculus, sending 40 members to Parliament, and the Congress, the BJP, and third front parties all fancy their chances. The Lok Jan Shakti Party led by Ram Vilas Paswan seems to have added another dimension to poll-eve politics by moving closer to the BJP. While this might be a pressure tactic as seat-sharing negotiations gather momentum, Bihar seems to be one State where several permutations and combinations are possible in alliances. At different points of time, the JD (U) and the LJP wooed both the Congress and the BJP. No matter how the RJD rebels issue plays out, the State seems set for hectic political activity in the weeks before the election, and a fiercely contested threeway battle. It is to be hoped that the latest turn does not heighten the turbulence in the State.

Iran keeps the door open

The Vienna talks between Iran and the E3/EU+3 group, acting for the P5+1, reached a constructive conclusion on February 20, with Irans Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and the European Unions High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Catherine Ashton making identical statements, in Farsi and English respectively, that the parties had identified all the issues necessary for a long-term deal. In effect, they have agreed on the framework for a comprehensive and final agreement. The next round of talks is to start on March 17, again in the Austrian capital. Under the interim agreement, Iran will stop producing uranium enriched to nearly 20 per cent, will dilute half the stockpile it has already enriched to the same level, and will continue converting the rest to a form unsuitable for further enrichment. In addition, Tehran will not enrich uranium in about half the centrifuges at Natanz and three quarters of those at Fordo. It will manufacture equipment only to repair existing machines, and will put the Arak heavy-water reactor on indefinite hold. It will not build any more enrichment facilities. Furthermore, the

International Atomic Energy Agency will be able to inspect Natanz and Fordo on a daily basis, and the Arak reactor at least on a monthly basis. On the other side, the western countries in particular have undertaken not to impose further nuclear-related sanctions if Iran fulfils its Vienna commitments; they will also pay Iran a total of $4.2 billion in oil revenues, allow Iran to resume exporting precious metals, suspend sanctions on Irans petrochemical exports, and permit the Islamic Republic to import goods and services for automobile manufacturing plants. In addition, they will maintain their current levels of crude oil imports from Iran, and will allow Irans civil airlines to acquire spare parts and services. Yet the deal already faces interference. Israel is pushing certain western governments to include Irans missile programme in future talks, thereby showing its own anxiety that a final agreement will be reached without it. Saudi Arabia, which sees Iran as a theological and political rival, will also view the current prospects with alarm. Irans willingness, however, to keep the door open need cause neither surprise nor suspicion. It was in fact the United States which, by providing uranium enriched to 93 per cent, helped start Irans nuclear programme in 1967, and Tehran aimed for nuclear self-sufficiency only after the West imposed sanctions on the Khomeini regime in the 1980s. There could be no clearer evidence for continued engagement between the P5+1 and Iran, and both sides must reach fair and just final-status arrangements without delay.

Time to speed up this trial

Indias pragmatic decision not to invoke its anti-piracy law against two Italian marines accused of killing two Indian fishermen off the Kerala coast in February 2012 sets the stage for some tangible judicial progress in the case. Italys diplomatic pressure, especially a dramatic move to recall its Ambassador in New Delhi for consultations, may have spurred the government to make up its mind after considerable dithering. Ultimately, the decision is reasonable as it is difficult to characterise the shooting, which happened on the basis of the impression that the fishermen were pirates, as an unlawful act that threatened navigation security. For far too long, the legal process has been delayed, initially on the question of jurisdiction and later on whether the Centre should allow the National Investigation Agency to proceed against the marines under the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against Safety of Maritime Navigation and Fixed Platforms on Continental Shelf Act, 2002 which prescribes the death penalty for those causing death during an act of violence against any ship or vessel. The NIA, which has a charge sheet ready and was waiting only for the outcome of the petition before the Supreme Court, may have to rework the final report, as SUA has been dropped and fresh penal provisions may have to be incorporated. Having given an assurance against awarding capital punishment earlier, it would have been unacceptable for India to apply a law that provides for mandatory death sentence. The delay itself was due to a legal dilemma that the NIA faced. The Act that gives statutory status to the NIA has a schedule of offences it can investigate, and SUA is one of them. Further, the shooting incident took place in the Contiguous Zone, bringing the matter into the realm of maritime security and conferring the requisite jurisdiction to the agency. Without SUA, the NIA

would undoubtedly be handicapped in its prosecution. Invoking the law, on the other hand, was unpalatable for Italy, as it felt that it will amount to classifying the country as a terrorist state. The next legal battle is already on, as the marines have now challenged the jurisdiction of the NIA to prosecute this case, and the court will hear the matter shortly. The process would be more purposive if this aspect is not actively pursued, as the NIA took up the probe only after the Supreme Court ruled that only the Union government had the jurisdiction to investigate it, and not the Kerala police. What is required now is an expeditious trial and a tangible outcome and not further rounds of legalistic hair-splitting. The right balance should be struck between bringing about a sense of closure to the victims, and maintaining cordial diplomatic relations.

Central African dilemma

In December 2013, France intervened in an African civil war for the second time in a year, again under impeccable United Nations authority, but it now faces an increasingly difficult predicament in the Central African Republic (CAR). The first intervention, in Mali, was a success for French President Franois Hollande, as French and African Union (AU) troops restored stability and blocked an imminent takeover by the Maghreb-based and al Qaeda-linked extreme Islamist group Ansar Dine. In CAR, however, several constraints obtain, such as local conditions, French public reluctance to commit more troops, and the unwillingness of the European Union and the United States to help. These are making it more likely that CAR will collapse into what a U.N. official has called ethnic-religious cleansing, even though the country has no history of religious strife. Even partition now looms, despite desperate efforts by CAR Interim President Catherine Samba Panza; half of CARs 4.6 million people are Christians, and 15 per cent, or about 700,000, are Muslims. The fighting has taken at least 2,000 lives and displaced about a million people, many of whom are barely surviving in terrible conditions; 80,000 Muslims have reportedly fled the north to Chad and the west to Cameroon. The killings have been extremely brutal, and Christian militias, called the anti-balaka (Sango for antimachete), are massacring Muslim civilians in revenge for killings of their co-religionists by Muslim militias called the Slka, which engaged in such killings themselves after overthrowing President Franois Boziz in March 2013. French troops in CAR, however, have not done everything they could have done, even if their numbers have been raised from 1,600 to 2,000, and their task is to help a 6,000-strong African Union force; the narrow streets in the capital Bangui and dense vegetation in the rural areas make heavy military equipment and air power ineffective, and more ground troops are needed. Human Rights Watch emergency director Peter Bouckaert has told the BBC that he saw French troops sitting still while civilians were murdered barely yards away, and other eyewitnesses speak of Chadian troops escorting Slka fighters across the border; the Chadian army has lost men and has reportedly killed CAR civilians. In addition, western interest in the country is low; it is landlocked and of little strategic importance to the west. In other regions of the world, nevertheless, concern is growing, and West Asian governments are paying closer attention. A failure of political will in France, the EU, and the United States could make CAR yet another target for what could well be externally-funded Islamist extremists.

Easy to ally, difficult to merge

Once the Central government approved the creation of Telangana, an alliance between the Congress and the Telangana Rashtra Samiti seemed a foregone conclusion. Indeed, TRS president K. Chandrasekhar Rao had repeatedly talked of merging his party with the Congress if the Centre acceded to the demand for Telangana. However, now that Telangana is irreversibly on the road to realisation, the situation looks slightly different, especially from Mr. Raos viewpoint. While the TRS is still in favour of a pact with the Congress to maximise vote gains in Telangana, a merger no longer appeals to the party. As the spearhead of the Telangana statehood agitation, the TRS is likely to be the biggest gainer in the Lok Sabha election in that region. A merger with the Congress would practically entail surrendering much of that advantage to the national party. As an indivisible part of the Congress, the TRS leadership would have very little room for manoeuvre in the post-election scenario. And with the Bharatiya Janata Party looking set to finish as the single largest party in the 16th Lok Sabha, a merger with the Congress would have seemed for the TRS like a constrictive decision. As an alliance, the Congress and the TRS will doubtless be a good combination in Telangana, but, for the TRS at least, a merger can only yield a lower political dividend. The meeting between Mr. Rao and Congress president Sonia Gandhi was essentially a gesture of thanksgiving. While Mr. Rao was ready to acknowledge that statehood for Telangana would not have been possible without the backing of Ms. Gandhi, he was not willing to commit his party to a merger. By taking his family along, Mr. Rao made the meeting look more personal than political. The meeting, which he described as a courtesy call, was more about the past than about the future. Without doubt, the TRS would drive a hard bargain over an electoral understanding with the Congress. The only trump card with the Congress is that the Assembly election is to be held alongside the Lok Sabha election; the Congress is a more valuable pre-election ally than the BJP, which is only a marginal player in Telangana. For the TRS, the Assembly election is more important than the Lok Sabha election, and the Congress would likely ask for a major share of the Lok Sabha seats in return for helping the TRS in the Assembly election. But, in any case, with its regional outlook, the TRS would find a merger a difficult proposition. It is not clear at this stage when the state would be notified and how elections would be held in Telangana and Seemandhra. And for all its cynical political manoeuvring over Telangana, the Congress electoral gains from the region might not be very substantial.

Iran keeps the door open

The Vienna talks between Iran and the E3/EU+3 group, acting for the P5+1, reached a constructive conclusion on February 20, with Irans Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and the European Unions High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Catherine Ashton making identical statements, in Farsi and English respectively, that the parties had identified all the issues necessary for a long-term deal. In effect, they have agreed on the framework for a

comprehensive and final agreement. The next round of talks is to start on March 17, again in the Austrian capital. Under the interim agreement, Iran will stop producing uranium enriched to nearly 20 per cent, will dilute half the stockpile it has already enriched to the same level, and will continue converting the rest to a form unsuitable for further enrichment. In addition, Tehran will not enrich uranium in about half the centrifuges at Natanz and three quarters of those at Fordo. It will manufacture equipment only to repair existing machines, and will put the Arak heavy-water reactor on indefinite hold. It will not build any more enrichment facilities. Furthermore, the International Atomic Energy Agency will be able to inspect Natanz and Fordo on a daily basis, and the Arak reactor at least on a monthly basis. On the other side, the western countries in particular have undertaken not to impose further nuclear-related sanctions if Iran fulfils its Vienna commitments; they will also pay Iran a total of $4.2 billion in oil revenues, allow Iran to resume exporting precious metals, suspend sanctions on Irans petrochemical exports, and permit the Islamic Republic to import goods and services for automobile manufacturing plants. In addition, they will maintain their current levels of crude oil imports from Iran, and will allow Irans civil airlines to acquire spare parts and services. Yet the deal already faces interference. Israel is pushing certain western governments to include Irans missile programme in future talks, thereby showing its own anxiety that a final agreement will be reached without it. Saudi Arabia, which sees Iran as a theological and political rival, will also view the current prospects with alarm. Irans willingness, however, to keep the door open need cause neither surprise nor suspicion. It was in fact the United States which, by providing uranium enriched to 93 per cent, helped start Irans nuclear programme in 1967, and Tehran aimed for nuclear self-sufficiency only after the West imposed sanctions on the Khomeini regime in the 1980s. There could be no clearer evidence for continued engagement between the P5+1 and Iran, and both sides must reach fair and just final-status arrangements without delay.

Time to speed up this trial

Indias pragmatic decision not to invoke its anti-piracy law against two Italian marines accused of killing two Indian fishermen off the Kerala coast in February 2012 sets the stage for some tangible judicial progress in the case. Italys diplomatic pressure, especially a dramatic move to recall its Ambassador in New Delhi for consultations, may have spurred the government to make up its mind after considerable dithering. Ultimately, the decision is reasonable as it is difficult to characterise the shooting, which happened on the basis of the impression that the fishermen were pirates, as an unlawful act that threatened navigation security. For far too long, the legal process has been delayed, initially on the question of jurisdiction and later on whether the Centre should allow the National Investigation Agency to proceed against the marines under the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against Safety of Maritime Navigation and Fixed Platforms on Continental Shelf Act, 2002 which prescribes the death penalty for those causing death during an act of violence

against any ship or vessel. The NIA, which has a charge sheet ready and was waiting only for the outcome of the petition before the Supreme Court, may have to rework the final report, as SUA has been dropped and fresh penal provisions may have to be incorporated. Having given an assurance against awarding capital punishment earlier, it would have been unacceptable for India to apply a law that provides for mandatory death sentence. The delay itself was due to a legal dilemma that the NIA faced. The Act that gives statutory status to the NIA has a schedule of offences it can investigate, and SUA is one of them. Further, the shooting incident took place in the Contiguous Zone, bringing the matter into the realm of maritime security and conferring the requisite jurisdiction to the agency. Without SUA, the NIA would undoubtedly be handicapped in its prosecution. Invoking the law, on the other hand, was unpalatable for Italy, as it felt that it will amount to classifying the country as a terrorist state. The next legal battle is already on, as the marines have now challenged the jurisdiction of the NIA to prosecute this case, and the court will hear the matter shortly. The process would be more purposive if this aspect is not actively pursued, as the NIA took up the probe only after the Supreme Court ruled that only the Union government had the jurisdiction to investigate it, and not the Kerala police. What is required now is an expeditious trial and a tangible outcome and not further rounds of legalistic hair-splitting. The right balance should be struck between bringing about a sense of closure to the victims, and maintaining cordial diplomatic relations.

Central African dilemma

In December 2013, France intervened in an African civil war for the second time in a year, again under impeccable United Nations authority, but it now faces an increasingly difficult predicament in the Central African Republic (CAR). The first intervention, in Mali, was a success for French President Franois Hollande, as French and African Union (AU) troops restored stability and blocked an imminent takeover by the Maghreb-based and al Qaeda-linked extreme Islamist group Ansar Dine. In CAR, however, several constraints obtain, such as local conditions, French public reluctance to commit more troops, and the unwillingness of the European Union and the United States to help. These are making it more likely that CAR will collapse into what a U.N. official has called ethnic-religious cleansing, even though the country has no history of religious strife. Even partition now looms, despite desperate efforts by CAR Interim President Catherine Samba Panza; half of CARs 4.6 million people are Christians, and 15 per cent, or about 700,000, are Muslims. The fighting has taken at least 2,000 lives and displaced about a million people, many of whom are barely surviving in terrible conditions; 80,000 Muslims have reportedly fled the north to Chad and the west to Cameroon. The killings have been extremely brutal, and Christian militias, called the anti-balaka (Sango for antimachete), are massacring Muslim civilians in revenge for killings of their co-religionists by Muslim militias called the Slka, which engaged in such killings themselves after overthrowing President Franois Boziz in March 2013. French troops in CAR, however, have not done everything they could have done, even if their numbers have been raised from 1,600 to 2,000, and their task is to help a 6,000-strong African

Union force; the narrow streets in the capital Bangui and dense vegetation in the rural areas make heavy military equipment and air power ineffective, and more ground troops are needed. Human Rights Watch emergency director Peter Bouckaert has told the BBC that he saw French troops sitting still while civilians were murdered barely yards away, and other eyewitnesses speak of Chadian troops escorting Slka fighters across the border; the Chadian army has lost men and has reportedly killed CAR civilians. In addition, western interest in the country is low; it is landlocked and of little strategic importance to the west. In other regions of the world, nevertheless, concern is growing, and West Asian governments are paying closer attention. A failure of political will in France, the EU, and the United States could make CAR yet another target for what could well be externally-funded Islamist extremists.

Looming military breakdown

In a nation where instances of admission of individual responsibility are depressingly rare, Chief of the Naval Staff Admiral D.K. Joshis resignation following the tragic accident on INS Sindhuratna is welcome evidence that some officials, at least, still hold themselves to the highest standards. Behind his resignation, though, lies a terrifying story: Indias military is, literally, on the verge of breakdown. In recent years, each military chief has told Defence Minister A.K. Antony of the growing danger that India might prove unable to fight future wars. Even as the Army has been instructed to be prepared to fight a war on two fronts, acquisitions of desperately needed armour and artillery systems have been endlessly delayed. The Air Force is warning that its combat fleet will start shrinking from 2017; squadrons are rationing flying time to prolong the life of aircraft for as long as possible. The Navy is well below strength, and its increasingly obsolescent platforms are dangerous. Last years explosion on board INS Sindhurakshak, one of 10 significant accidents involving the Navy in the last seven months, caused more damage than the Navy ever suffered at war. Perhaps most dangerous, all three services face large-scale deficits of officers, because the armed forces pay scales and service conditions are too poor to attract the skilled young people modern militaries need. There are more than a few in the armed forces who are asking whether the civilian leadership is not just as responsible for the deaths on board the Sindhuratna as Admiral Joshi, whose resignation the Union government was so quick to accept. Though Mr. Antonys years in office have seen him maintain his stellar reputation for personal probity which is no mean achievement in itself he has done little to address the looming crisis in Indian defence. Equipment purchases have stalled at the whiff of scandal, often forcing the forces to restart the acquisition process, that can last years. In fairness to Mr. Antony, the problem is not all of his making. The depreciation of the rupee against the dollar, and Indias slowing growth, have stripped him of resources badly needed for modernisation. Yet, there is no glossing over the fact that too little has been done on defence reform and capacity-building. India can only hope it is not too late. The last Indian military chief to hand in his resignation was General K.S. Thimayya, who did so in 1959 to protest Defence Minister V.K. Krishna Menons refusal to consider his plans to prepare the Army for a war with China. Prime Minister Nehru persuaded the legendary General to take back his resignation, but chose not to persuade his Defence Minister to take the threat of war seriously. The consequences still haunt India.

From austerity to growth

In a noticeable change in its stance, the G-20, comprising the worlds biggest economies, at the recent meeting in Sydney decided to shift emphasis from championing austerity to promoting growth at a time when the financial crisis in seen to be receding. Towards that end, Finance Ministers and central bank governors of the G-20 agreed to target reforms aimed at adding more than $2 trillion to the global economy over five years. Political leaders from the bloc who will meet in November are expected to outline what reforms they expect to implement to achieve the target. Yet the tasks of identifying reforms and implementing them in a synchronised manner among countries are not easy. For one, the worlds biggest economies are not a homogenous lot. Even the traditional categorisation such as advanced and developing economies falls flat when individual countries in each sub-group exhibit diverse characteristics. Among advanced economies, the U.S. is ahead with recovery gathering steam. Countries of the EU, on the other hand, are still struggling to come out of the recession, although they have put their worst days behind them. Another important development often highlighted by institutions such as the IMF is that while in the early post-recovery period, China and India along with a few other developing countries were spearheading global growth, the position is now reversed with the advanced economies led by the U.S. emerging in the forefront. All these explain why the joint G-20 communique cannot be anything but bland. It talks of ambitious but realistic policies to lift the collective GDP to 2 per cent above the trajectory implied by current policies, over the coming five years. The fixing of a numerical target for future growth is considered significant. In the past, the G-20 has shied away from fixing numbers in such areas as fiscal adjustments. Indias strong views on the deleterious consequences of the U.S. Federal Reserves ongoing taper process were accommodated in the final communique, which calls for a continuous calibration of monetary policy settings by individual countries and their communication to one another. Another of Indias key concerns the reform of the IMF quota system to give developing economies a greater say was also taken on board. The G-20, comprising the biggest industrialised and developing countries accounting for 85 per cent of the world economy, might have regained some relevance which it was fast losing as countries went their own ways, However, even its most notable success persuading members to shift gears from austerity to growth has met with scepticism from certain key members, who have termed the numerical targets aspirational rather than realistic.