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Macro
Fig.1. Gold and US Real Rates
$2,000
$1,800
$1,600
$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200
$0
US Real Rates
Gold Price
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
-5%
$4,000
$3,500
$3,000
$2,500
$2,000
$1,500
$1,000
$500
$0
1995
1,600
Gold
ECB Real Rates
1,200
1,000
4%
3,500
3%
3,000
2%
2,500
1%
2,000
0%
1,500
-1%
1,000
-2%
500
-3%
800
600
400
200
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2007
2011
2003
2007
2011
Source: Bloomberg
12,000
2003
1999
Source: Bloomberg
14,000
1999
Source: Bloomberg
1,400
$4,500
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
-5%
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Source: Bloomberg
$16
$14
$12
Thousands
Section I. Macro
$50
$40
$1,500
Gold
$30
$2,000
M2
$1,000
$10
$20
$8
$500
$10
$6
$4
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
$0
1999
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
25%
Fig.9. US M1 YoY%
$0
2003
2007
2011
Fig.10. US M2 YoY%
15%
20%
15%
10%
10%
5%
5%
0%
-5%
1970
1980
Source: Bloomberg
20%
1990
2000
2010
0%
1970
1980
Source: Bloomberg
12%
1990
2000
2010
10%
15%
8%
10%
6%
4%
5%
2%
0%
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
0%
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Source: Bloomberg
Hundreds
Source: Bloomberg
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1996
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
2000
Source: Bloomberg
2004
2008
2012
0%
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
Source: Bloomberg
Section I. Macro
Fig.16. US National Debt ($T)
$25
Fig.15. Inflation
US
Euro Area
1.1
0.5
1.6
1.0
8.9
n/a
Headline CPI
Core CPI
Shadowstats
$20
China
2.0
n/a
n/a
$15
$10
$5
$0
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Source: TreasuryDirect.gov, USDebtClock.org
$18
370%
$17
320%
$16
270%
220%
$15
170%
$14
120%
1947
1957
1967
1977
1987
1997
2007
$13
2011
Source: Bloomberg
2012
2013
Source: Bloomberg
2014
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
2013
Section I. Macro
Fig.21. Global Forex Accumulation
(US$B, 12 month sum)
$1,900
$1,400
$900
$400
-$100 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
$700
$500
$300
$100
1978
-$100
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
2008
2013
$220
$180
$140
$100
$60
$20
-$201990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: US Treasury; MacroMavens, LLC
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Supply
Mine production
2,591
2,592
2,478
2,550
2,481
2,476
2,409
2,584
2,739
2,827 2,848
3,019
835
944
829
886
1,107
956
1,217
1,672
1,723
1,669 1,626
1,371
Traditional supply
3,426
3,536
3,307
3,436
3,588
3,432
3,626
4,257
4,463
4,495 4,473
4,390
(412)
(279)
(445)
(86)
(373)
(444)
(349)
(252)
(108)
10
(20)
(50)
545
617
497
662
367
484
236
30
3,559
3,874
3,359
4,012
3,582
3,472
3,513
4,034
4,355
4,505 4,453
4,340
2,680
2,522
2,673
2,707
2,283
2,405
2,187
1,760
2,017
1,972 1,908
2,198
360
385
416
431
458
462
436
373
466
3,040
2,907
3,089
3,138
2,741
2,867
2,623
2,134
373
314
396
412
421
446
649
743
453
428
409
2,483
2,425 2,336
2,603
1,205
1,519 1,256
1,654
77
457
535
369
39
133
208
260
253
321
617
382
185
279
(881)
(81)
47
595
4,505 4,453
4,340
143
614
(259)
254
160
(94)
(80)
541
207
3,559
3,874
3,359
4,012
3,582
3,472
3,513
4,034
4,355
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
4.0%
5.0%
0.0%
1934
1982
2013
Millions of Ounces
All ETFS
SPDR Trust
40
0
Oct-03
Oct-05
Oct-07
Oct-09
Oct-11
Oct-13
Broker, 5.20%
Private
Banking, 3.20%
Pension Fund,
0.30%
Hedge Fund,
5.90%
Mutual Fund,
2.50%
NonInstitutional,
69.80%
Insurance
Company,
0.20%
Source: FactSet
Country
Russia
Kazakhstan
Turkey
Tonnes
6.8
3.5
21.9
Transaction
Purchase
Purchase
Decrease
600
Fig.29. Central Banks Net Purchases (tonnes)
500
400
300
200
100
0
08 09 10 11 12 13
-100 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
-200
-300
-400
-500
-600
Source: World Gold Council
34,000
33,500
14%
13%
33,000
32,500
12%
32,000
11%
31,500
31,000
10%
30,500
9%
30,000
8%
29,500
3/00
3/02
3/04
3/06
3/08
3/10
3/12
100
80
60
40
20
0
2006
2007
Source: GoogleTrends
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
100
80
60
40
20
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: GoogleTrends
100.00
$2,000
$1,800
$1,600
$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200
$0
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
DSI
Gold
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
100
$2,000
$1,800
$1,600
$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
80
60
40
Market Vane
Gold
20
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2000
$2,000
$1,800
$1,600
$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200
$0
1800
1600
1400
1200
Open Interest
Gold
1000
800
2006
2008
Source: Bloomberg
2010
2012
480%
CCI Index
380%
Gold
280%
180%
80%
-20%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
2014
Source: Bloomberg
1,000
$2,000
800
600
$1,500
400
200
0
2006
-200
$1,000
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-400
$500
-600
-800
-1,000
Source: CFTC
$0
$1,700
$1,500
More Net Short
60%
$1,300
$1,100
40%
20%
0%
7/10
$900
$700
7/11
7/12
7/13
$500
Registered Stocks
100
80
60
40
20
Millions of Ounces
80%
0
2003
0
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Source: Bloomberg
60%
HUI/Gold
XAU/Gold
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1995
1997
1999
Source: FactSet
$4,000
2001
2003
$3,000
2005
$16
$14
2007
2009
2011
2013
$12
$2,000
$10
$8
$0
$6
-$1,000
1H07
2H07
1H08
2H08
1H09
2H09
1H10
2H10
1H11
2H11
1H12
2H12
1H13
2H13
1H14
$1,000
$4
$2
-$2,000
-$3,000
$0
5/06 5/07 5/08 5/09 5/10 5/11 5/12 5/13
Source: Morningstar
1H14 - as of 2/28/14
Source: FactSet
$18
$16
$14
$12
$B of Equty Issued
# of Transactions
$10
300
250
200
150
$8
$6
100
$4
50
$2
$0
0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
8%
50%
$400
Millions
6%
4%
40%
$300
30%
$200
2%
$100
0%
$0
20%
10%
0%
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
-2%
Est.
Acquisition Cost
Source: FactSet.
Universe: NEM, ABX, GG, KGC, AUY, NCM, AU, GFI, HMY
$1,800
$1,600
$1,400
Cash Margin
$1,200
Cash Costs
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200
$0
2002
2003
Source: Bloomberg
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
$2,500
40%
35%
$2,000
30%
25%
$1,500
20%
$1,000
$500
$0
10%
5%
2013 2014
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
E
E
Margin (%)
15%
210
253
311
363
413
552
738
661
814
0%
23% 32% 31% 24% 18% 32% 21% 15% 32% 34% 37% 34% 19% 27%
Source: Tocqueville Asset Management, FactSet.
10
Source: Scotiabank
Source: Scotiabank
11