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OCTOBER 29, 2009

Gloom Spreads on Economy, but GOP Doesn't Gain


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By JONATHAN WEISMAN

Americans are growing increasingly pessimistic about the economy after a mild upswing of
attitudes in September. But Republicans haven't been able to profit politically from the
economic gloom, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.

The survey found a country in a decidedly negative mood, nearly a year after the election of
President Barack Obama. For the first time during the Obama presidency, a majority of
Americans sees the country as being on the wrong track.

Fifty-eight percent of those polled say the


economic slide still has a ways to go, up
from 52% in September and back to the
level of pessimism expressed in July. Only
29% said the economy had "pretty much hit
bottom," down from 35% last month.
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But a dark national view of how everybody
On WSJ.com In My Network
in Washington is conducting the public's
business appears to be preventing Deal Reached on Bank Crackdown
Republicans from benefiting from concerns
about the direction of the country or the Obama Is Right About Fox News
WSJ/NBC News Poll
Democrat-led government's handling of the GMAC Asks for More U.S. Cash
See full results of the poll
economy, as the minority party often does.
Archive: Previous WSJ/NBC News polls
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In fact, disapproval of the Republican Party
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actually has ticked upward, along with the public's general pessimism. Asked which political
party should control Congress after next year's midterm elections, Democrats now hold a clear
edge over the GOP, 46% to 38%, a month after the Republicans were nearly as popular. In Video
September, the Democratic edge was 43% to 40%.

"There was a bounce-back surge for Republicans, and that's stalled," said Bill McInturff, a
Republican pollster who conducted the Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll with Democratic
pollster Peter Hart.
Downbeat Public Public Option News Hub: Is
"The mood in America may be blue, but attitudes toward Washington are just jet black," Mr. Losing Faith in Tiptoeing Through 'Smart Grid' a
Dems and GOP Minefield Smart Idea?
Hart said. 1:46 1:29 4:06

The survey of 1,009 Americans was conducted from Oct. 22-25.


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Overall, respondents sent Mr. Obama mixed
Following the Polls U.S. Mood Sours on Economy
signals on his top policy initiatives.
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Gloom Spreads on Economy, but GOP Doesn't Gain - WSJ.com 09-10-29 12:35 PM

Following the Polls U.S. Mood Sours on Economy


signals on his top policy initiatives.
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His health-care plan continues to face a Senators Question U.S. Response to Flu
plurality of opposition -- 42% say it is a bad
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idea, against 38% who say it is a good idea.
But a key flash point in the health-care Panel OKs New Rating-Agency Rules
debate is showing steadily increasing
support.
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A government-run insurance plan that
Read Emailed Video Commented
View Interactive competes with private insurance plans -- the
so-called public option -- is now backed by
Obama's Approval 1. Opinion: Obama Is Right About Fox News
48%, compared with 42% who oppose it. In
September, 48% opposed it while 46% 2. Opinion: Jenkins: Washington's Suicide Mission
supported it. In the rough month of August,
when noisy town-hall meetings were 3. GMAC Asks for More U.S. Cash
tarnishing the president's health-care push,
4. Opinion: Freaked Out Over SuperFreakonomics
47% opposed the public option and only
43% favored it. 5. Public Option Creates Barriers for Bill

White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel


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said in an interview: "Clearly, as the public
View Interactive perceives the potential of this landmark
legislation passing, they are acknowledging
that moment with political support."

That has begun redounding to the


Downbeat Public
Losing Faith in Dems Democrats' advantage in Congress, he said.
and GOP "The public sees them getting something
1:46
done of real importance," Mr. Emanuel said.
The latest exclusive
WSJ/NBC poll makes for
bad reading for both parties. WSJ's Gerald F. Seib Don Stewart, spokesman for Senate Minority
says it's part of the public's growing trend of Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.), said
disillusionment with Democrats and Republicans.
positive movement in favor of the public
option is "meaningless" if Americans remain
Journal Community
opposed to the broader legislation.
Discuss: Is the economy on the mend?
"They can talk about momentum all they
want. The momentum is in the Senate Democratic cloakroom. It's not in Topeka, and it's not
in Arcadia, Fla.," Mr. Stewart said, referring to the town Mr. Obama was visiting Tuesday.

On Afghanistan, the public is signaling it can support a presidential decision to send more
troops, but only so far. Some 47% said they would either strongly or somewhat support
sending more troops into the eight-year-old fight, with 43% saying they somewhat or strongly
opposed such a move. Last month, 51% said they opposed sending more troops, compared
with 44% who approved of such a move.

But asked specifically about sending an additional 40,000 troops, which the U.S. commander
in Afghanistan, Gen. Stanley McChrystal, has requested, 49% said that would be
unacceptable. Just 43% called that acceptable. A majority of Americans are amenable to a
much smaller 10,000-troop increase, but a majority of women don't support even that.

With support so fluid, "the country is looking


to be led," Mr. Hart said. Mr. Obama "has
the ability to both shape attitudes and shape
policy," he added.

The economy is where real signs of stress


are showing. The recent recovery of the
stock market has done little to temper the
pessimism: 64% said the rise of the Dow
View Full Image Jones Industrial Average didn't have much
Associated Press
impact on their views of the economy; 32%
Sarah Hodges, from Durham, N.C., looks at a
camera while shopping at Super Target in Durham, said it was an important indication of
N.C. economic improvement. Just 42% said the
economy will get better in the next 12

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Gloom Spreads on Economy, but GOP Doesn't Gain - WSJ.com 09-10-29 12:35 PM

economy will get better in the next 12


months, down from 47% in September. In contrast, 22% said things would get worse, up from
20%, and 33% said the economy would stay in the same condition, up from 30%.

That pessimism has fed into what Mr. Hart called "total disgust" with Washington. Just 23%
said they trust Washington to do what is right most of the time or just about always, a level
not seen since 1997, 1995 and before that 1982, the last time unemployment reached the
current level.

That, coupled with the surging "wrong-track" number, should be a red flag to Democrats a
year after their 2008 electoral sweep, Mr. McInturff said. But with the economy coloring
attitudes across the board, there is time for the party to recover.

"This rupture with Washington is magnified because of the scope of economic concerns," he
said. "When things are OK, people say, 'Oh, that's just Washington.' When things are bad,
they look to Washington for help and ask, 'Can these guys help me?'"

Indeed, for all the conservative clamor over Mr. Obama's actions on the economy, 63% of
respondents said the government has either done the right amount of intervention or needs to
do more. Among loosely aligned voters in the middle of the electorate, a clear plurality, 42%,
said government has done too little to fix the economy.

Write to Jonathan Weisman at jonathan.weisman@wsj.com

How This Poll Was Conducted


The Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll was based on nationwide telephone interviews of 1,009 adults,
including a sample of 101 interviews with people who only use a cellphone. It was conducted Oct. 22-
25 by the polling organizations of Peter Hart and Bill McInturff.
To draw the sample, 350 geographic points were randomly selected proportionate to the population of
each region and, within each region, by size of place. Individuals were selected by a method that gave
all landline telephone numbers, listed and unlisted, an equal chance of being included. The cellphone
sample was drawn from a list of cellphone users nationally.
One adult was selected from each household by a procedure to provide a balance of respondents by
gender. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points; sample tolerances for subgroups
are larger.

Printed in The Wall Street Journal, page A12


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