Cold War Lesson for Ukraine

FP

BY KIM R. HOLMES MARCH 25, 2014 - 11:39 AM

There's been a lot of talk about how Russia's invasion of Crimea means a return to the Cold War. History never repeats itself exactly (it merely echoes). But there are actually some lessons from the Cold War which could be applicable to the crisis in Ukraine. The first is that facts on the ground matter. The Soviet Union occupied half of Europe after World War II more or less with our blessing. Yes, we felt tricked that Josef Stalin installed communist regimes, but his troops were there because they had been our allies. Once President Truman realized Stalin's true intentions, he tried to counter Soviet expansion with his containment policy. But he was still playing catch up. Not only did the facts on the ground in Eastern Europe favor Stalin, so did the impression, left by years of cooperation with Roosevelt, that the United States was not really interested in fighting another war after the victory over the Nazis. We are in a similar situation today. Putin must surely understand -- if for no other reason than because we are constantly telling him so -- that Americans are weary of war. He's also likely gotten the impression that Obama, like Franklin D. Roosevelt before him, prefers a world in which Russia is given a fairly wide berth.

That was clearly signaled by the Russia "reset" policy, and it was an impression likely reinforced by Obama's casual handling of the Ukraine crisis, complete with comedy TV appearances and Florida vacations, which at the very least indicated a lack of alarm. There's another similarity: Russian troops now occupy Crimea as they once did Poland in 1945. Because of that, Putin likely thinks the Europeans and Americans are bluffing over Ukraine, as Stalin likely thought Truman was doing when he first protested Soviet actions in Poland. But Truman was not bluffing. He not only resisted Soviet aggression against Turkey and Greece, but eventually made it clear that he would resist Soviet bullying by launching the Berlin airlift in 1948-49. And, of course, he went on to launch his containment policy which lasted for a generation. Obama faces a similar challenge. At some point he will have to choose between a containment policy of his own or business as usual. Putin may not give him the choice of trying to have it both ways. At some point the president should expect to be tested, as Truman was, to show how much he really believes in all his rhetorical support for Ukraine. But there the similarities with the Cold War end. Putin may have the military and geopolitical advantage in Ukraine, but he does not enjoy the same strategic assets of the Soviet Union. His military power is not as great; except for nuclear weapons, Russia is not really a global power. The ideological struggle over communism is missing. And unlike in Stalin's time, Putin's political base at home (the nouveau riche oligarchs) do not want economic isolation. They want to continue to shop at posh London shops and to continue getting rich selling natural gas abroad. This means they are far more vulnerable to economic sanctions than were the travel-deprived apparatchiks of Soviet times.

There's another difference. While Putin occupies Crimea, he does not occupy all of Ukraine. Unlike in 1945-47, when about 500,000 Soviet troops occupied Poland, there are today no Russian troops in Ukraine outside of Crimea. Thus most of Ukraine is still free. We should be taking advantage of this window of opportunity because Putin may close it soon. Stepping back and waiting to see what Putin does next is likely to convince him that he can move to the next step, whatever it may be. One of the most important lessons of the Cold War is that drawing lines in the sand actually works. We often think of how the containment strategy held the Soviet Union in check, but the real tests of strength actually occurred before that strategy was fully in place. Truman "lost" Poland (mainly because he never had it in the first place), but he drew the line with Turkey and Greece. Both countries ended up as NATO allies, not members of the Warsaw Pact. We should be drawing similarly clear lines in the sand today, particularly with respect to the Baltic members of NATO, making it absolutely clear that the United States will honor its NATO Article Five commitment to defend those countries. The challenge for U.S. policy is not to let Russia's fait accompli in Crimea signal a complete abandonment of Ukraine. It's one thing to say we will not go to war to defend Ukraine's independence, and another one altogether to consign Ukraine forever to Russia's sphere of influence. Not everything in foreign policy comes down to threatening war. Most Ukrainians want to be part of the West, as the Poles did some 70 years ago, and this matters more in the long run than the strength of Russia's armored brigades. So let's give the Ukrainians -- and the Russians -- a long-term strategy. In addition to near-term sanctions against Russia that truly threaten its ability to do business with the West, we should be offering to assist Ukraine's economy. We can do this

not only by supporting loans and loan guarantees to assist Ukraine through its immediate crisis, but to help the International Monetary Fund and the European Union construct a program of aid-for-reforms that can turn Ukraine's economy around. Part of Kiev's problem is that it pretends to want to join the West but it never gets its economic house in order to actually do it. Economic aid packages are fine, but Ukraine's economy needs serious reform. The most important thing President Obama could now do is to signal to Putin that he has the patience to follow through on a strategy of isolating Russia. Putin likely believes he lacks that patience. To prove him wrong, the United States should: launch tougher sanctions against Russia; help Ukraine get its economic house in order; start serious military planning for the defense of the Baltic States; restore America's military and strategic defenses; and let it be known that the United States will never recognize Russia's suzerainty over Ukraine.

EUROPE

24 March 2014 Last updated at 14:50 ET More from Mark

Ukraine crisis: Is this Cold War Two?

We overdo the talk of turning points and milestones in covering summits, but, when it comes to the G7 at The Hague, it's very hard to see it in any other terms. Events in Ukraine have profoundly changed Western perceptions towards Russia and it's very hard to envisage any rapid return to business as usual. Arriving in the Netherlands for this summit, President Barack Obama said the US and Europe were united in imposing sanctions that would bring "significant consequences to the Russian economy". Michael McFaul, the former US ambassador in Moscow, wrote on Monday morning that President Putin "embraces confrontation with the West [and] has made a strategic pivot". Carl Bildt, Sweden's foreign minister, added on Twitter that Mr McFaul's gloomy prognosis was understating the problem since the Russian president was "building on deeply conservative orthodox ideas". When the people responsible for good East-West relations are saying this, you know that this is no flash in the pan. So is this Cold War Two or a lesser realignment in world politics? Much depends on Russian actions during the coming days: an invasion of eastern Ukraine would likely trigger a full-scale trade war, but consolidation of the hold on Crimea, with continued covert support to militant Russian groups in Donetsk or Kharkiv, would pose a trickier dilemma to Western policymakers. Climate of tension However, since the Kremlin is not only unlikely to reverse its stance in Crimea but is also now brandishing the possibility of intervention in support of Russians in Moldova or the Baltic republics (members of Nato after all), it is evident that the new climate of tension is not going to be soothed rapidly and may get far worse.

Up to now the public perception of European dependence on Russian trade has led many to assume that meaningful sanctions or a real realignment are unlikely. But those who hold that view may be under-estimating the degree to which European leaders are already agreeing (so far in private) to harsher measures and the extent to which they feel guilty at not having acted more effectively years ago. The "targeted measures" enacted so far by the US and EU simply penalise some of Mr Putin's friends and political allies. The Level 3 sanctions already agreed in principle by EU leaders last week target certain Russian enterprises and would take us into genuine trade war territory. Last week also, the European Commission pledged to step up work to reduce energy dependence on Russia. And it is in this area that European leaders have shown their resentment at having been taken in by Mr Putin before and allowed things to return to normal. The interruption of Russian gas supplies in 2006 and the 2008 war with Georgia were events that prompted previous pledges to lessen energy dependence. But back then many privately blamed Georgia for provoking the Russian military and couldn't wait to get back into business with a booming BRIC economy. Merkel's stance There is a seriousness now about reducing Russian gas imports further, buttressing Ukraine's ability to do the same, and agreeing further measures in advance of the next Russian move, not after it. As the Swedish prime minister told Newsnight earlier this month, a trade war will hurt Russia more than it will hurt the EU. Russia accounts for 7% of European exports, but those coming the other way represent 21% of Russia's trade. Nobody personifies this sense of wanting to avoid getting taken in again by the Kremlin more than Germany's Chancellor, Angela Merkel. While it is true that German trade remains highly significant in her calculations, her political stance has become noticeably harsher in recent days. How far all this will go, even without further Russian military action against Ukraine or Moldova, remains unclear.

If the EU's project to reduce its dependence on Russian energy bears fruit, it is possible that the recent growth in trade across the old iron curtain will be reversed. Other debates will take place among the G7 leaders, in the corridors of the Berlaymont, headquarters of the European Commission, and at Nato: to what extent are previously planned diplomatic engagements with Mr Putin now toxic? How can partnership with Ukraine be strengthened? And does the long slide in European defence spending need to be checked? Some of these answers are becoming clearer. There will be no G8 summit in Sochi, there could be further steps against President Putin's inner circle, and increased deployments of Nato forces to the Baltic republic will be maintained. But many uncertainties remain, including, at the most dramatic level, whether further Russian military action might lead to large-scale sanctions, US troop cuts in Europe being reversed, and a new diplomatic ice age.

"NewUkraine order": east, post-Cold Crimea goes goes War west

CBS/APMarch

21, 2014, 2:46 PM

Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk speaks with the media after a signing ceremony at an EU summit in Brussels on Friday, March 21, 2014. AP PHOTO/GEERT VANDEN WIJNGAERT

15 Comments 5 Shares 43 Tweets Stumble Email

More +

BRUSSELS -- Two almost simultaneous signatures Friday on opposite sides of Europe deepened the divide between East and West, as Russia formally annexed Crimea and the European Union pulled Ukraine closer into its orbit. In this "new post-Cold War order," as the Ukrainian prime minister called it, besieged Ukrainian troops on the Crimean Peninsula faced a critical choice: leave, join the Russian military or demobilize. Ukraine was working on evacuating its outnumbered troops in Crimea, but some said they were still awaiting orders. The chief of the U.N. came to Kiev and urged calm on all sides. Many eyes were on Russian President Vladimir Putin, as they have been ever since pro-Western protests drove out Ukraine's president a month ago, angering Russia and plunging Europe into its worst crisis in a generation. Putin sounded a conciliatory note Friday, almost joking about U.S. and EU sanctions squeezing his inner circle and saying he saw no reason to retaliate. But his government later warned of further action.

Play

VIDEO

Russian troop buildup increases along Ukraine's border

Meanwhile, the buildup of Russian troops now covers essentially the entire Ukrainian border - with some soldiers as close as 50 kilometers away, CBS News national security correspondent David Martin reports. The buildup is raising serious concerns that Russia could invade Ukraineproper. Russia's troubled economic outlook may drive its decisions as much as any outside military threat. Stocks sank further, and a possible downgrade of Russia's credit rating loomed. Visa and MasterCard stopped serving two Russian banks, and Russia conceded it may scrap plans to tap international markets for money this year. Despite those clouds, Putin painted Friday's events in victorious colors, ordering fireworks in Moscow and Crimea reminiscent of the celebrations held when Soviet troops drove the Nazis from occupied cities in World War II.

19

PHOTOS

Russia annexes Crimea

At the Kremlin, Putin signed parliamentary legislation incorporating Crimea into Russia, hailing it as a "remarkable event." At nearly the same time in a ceremony in Brussels, EU leaders sought to pull the rest of cash-strapped Ukraine westward by signing a political association agreement with the new Ukrainian prime minister. The highly symbolic piece of paper is part of the same EU deal that touched off Ukraine's political crisis when then-President Viktor Yanukovych rejected it in November and chose a bailout from Russia instead. That ignited months of protests that eventually drove him from power. Ukraine's new prime minister, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, a leader of the protest movement, eagerly pushed for the EU agreement. "This deal meets the aspirations of millions of Ukrainians that want to be a part of the European Union," Yatsenyuk said in Brussels. The agreement includes security and defense cooperation, he said, though it is far from full EU membership and doesn't include an important freetrade element yet.

But the EU decided to grant Ukraine financial advantages such as reduced tariffs to boost its ailing economy until the full deal can be signed. Those trade advantages are a blow to Russia, which had hoped to pull Ukraine into a Moscow-focused customs union instead. In exchange for the EU pact, Ukraine's government is promising economic reforms. "In the long term, the biggest challenge will be to build a strong Ukrainian economy, rooted in strong institutions that respect the rule of law," British Prime Minister David Cameron said at the EU summit. Russia's foreign minister dismissed the EU pact, saying the current Ukrainian leadership lacks popular support and should have held elections before making such a decision. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, visiting Ukraine's capital, urged talks between Kiev and Moscow. "At times like this, it is vital that all parties refrain from any provocative actions that could exacerbate an already very tense and very volatile situation," he said. The EU hit 12 more people with sanctions Friday over Russia's annexation of Crimea, bringing its list of those facing visa bans and asset freezes to 33. They include one of Russia's deputy prime ministers, a Putin adviser and the speaker of Russia's upper house of Parliament, according to a document obtained by The Associated Press. Annexing Crimea "is a flagrant breach of international law and something we will not recognize. This behavior belongs to the Europe of the last century not this one," Cameron said. Still, the EU roster fell short of the high-powered U.S. list, in an apparent reflection of European wariness of going as far as Washington to punish Russia - Europe's neighbor, energy supplier and trade partner. President Barack Obama on Thursday ordered a second round of sanctions against 20 members of Putin's inner circle and a major bank supporting them. The list included four businessmen considered to be Putin's lifelong friends. Moscow retaliated by banning nine U.S. officials and lawmakers from entering Russia.

Putin tried to play down the sanctions at Friday's televised session of the presidential Security Council. "We should keep our distance from those people who compromise us," he said, a jocular reference to the officials on the sanctions list, some of whom attended the meeting. Putin added sardonically that he would open an account to keep his salary in the targeted Bank Rossiya, owned by Yuri Kovalchuk, considered to be Putin's longtime friend. At the same time, Putin said he sees no immediate need for further Russian retaliation over the U.S. sanctions, adding that Russia will keep funding a program jointly with NATO to service Afghan helicopters and train their crews. However, just a few hours later, the Russian Foreign Ministry said Moscow will "harshly" respond to the latest round of U.S. sanctions, and Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said Russia will retaliate. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu told Putin on Friday that 72 Ukrainian military units in Crimea have decided to join the Russian military. His claim couldn't be independently confirmed.

Play

VIDEO

Ukraine moves to fortify its eastern border

CBS News' Elizabeth Palmer reports from Crimea that Ukrainian servicemen are still holding out on ships, though overnight two Ukrainian naval vessels were seized by pro-Russian crowds and paramilitaries. Several thousand military personnel do remain dug in on their bases, Palmer reports. The government promised they would be a part of a plan to evacuate safely to new jobs and lives across the border but they are still waiting to hear how that will happen and how soon.

Amid its political crisis, Ukraine is teetering on the verge of bankruptcy, struggling to pay off billions of dollars in debts in the coming months. The U.S. and the EU have pledged to quickly offer a bailout.

Ukraine Seeks UN Vote Against Crimea Annexation

UNITED NATIONS March 24, 2014 (AP) By EDITH M. LEDERER Associated Press

Ukraine is hoping the United Nations General Assembly will adopt a resolution later this week reaffirming the country's unity and territorial integrity and underscoring that the referendum that led to Crimea's annexation by Russia "has no validity." The draft resolution, circulated Monday to the 193 assembly members and obtained by The Associated Press, never mentions Russia by name but calls on all countries not to recognize "any alteration of the status" of Crimea. It also urges all parties to pursue a peaceful resolution of the situation in Ukraine, "refrain from unilateral actions and inflammatory rhetoric that may increase tensions, and to engage fully with international mediation efforts." The General Assembly's resolutions are not legally binding but they reflect world opinion, and Ukraine will be looking for a strong "yes" vote to show Russia's international isolation. The U.N.'s most powerful body, the Security Council, has been blocked from taking any action because Russia, has veto power as one of its five permanent members. Even so, the 15-member council has held eight meetings on Ukraine, as Western powers strive to keep up the pressure on Moscow. On March 15, Russia vetoed a council resolution declaring the referendum on Crimea illegal. Supporters of the U.S.-sponsored resolution expected the veto but went ahead with the vote to show the strength of opposition to Russia's takeover of Crimea. Thirteen council members voted in favor of the resolution. China, Russia's usual ally on the Security Council, abstained rather than joining Russia in voting "no." Unlike the council, the General Assembly has no vetoes. Crimea has been at the center of Europe's greatest geopolitical crisis since the end of the Cold War. Russian troops took over the Ukrainian peninsula, where Russia's Black Sea fleet is based, and Moscow officially annexed Crimea following a referendum last week.

The upheaval in Crimea is the fallout of months of anti-government protests and outbursts of violence that led to the ouster of Ukraine's pro-Russia president, Viktor Yanukovych, who fled last month. The U.S. and European Union have denounced Moscow's action as illegal. The draft resolution is expected to be put to a vote Thursday at a General Assembly meeting, where many member states will have their first opportunity to speak on the crisis in Ukraine. The document reaffirms that under the U.N. Charter all states must refrain "from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, and to settle their international disputes by peaceful means." It would also affirm the General Assembly's "commitment to the sovereignty, political independence, unity and territorial integrity of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders." And it would call on all states "to desist and refrain from actions aimed at the partial or total disruption of the national unity and territorial integrity of Ukraine, including any attempts to modify Ukraine's borders through the threat or use of force or other unlawful means."