orking together on Automated Vehicle Guidance

y business plan
abridged version

Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management

Working together on Automated Vehicle Guidance

Preliminary business plan abridged version

Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management University of Groningen, Centre for Environmental and Traffic Psychology Institute for Road Safety Research SWOV Delft Technical University/TRAIL: the Netherlands Research School for Transport, Infrastructure and Logistics TNO: Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research

Contents

Summary

AVG: from cruise control to auto-pilot?

State of the art

AVG: pros and cons

11

Towards a business plan

14

Colophon

23

Summary
Automated Vehicle Guidance (AVG) - systems which assist drivers to carry out the driving task and partially or wholly take over this task - is no longer science fiction. AVG technologies are developing apace. Practical applications of AVG, for both passenger and freight transport, are already to be seen, and advanced systems will soon be launched onto the market.

AVG systems are expected to have a major impact on the 'regular' road network. AVG promises to be a very effective traffic control tooi, with enormous potential for enhancing traffic flow rates, reliability, safety and environmental quality. It also appears to have great potential economie benefits, both for industry and for society as a whole. Automation of the driving task in one form or another will increasingly become a fact of life. Large investments are being made worldwide in a range of innovative developments which will be introduced into transport systems. This can take many different forms and occur at many different rates. Government transport policy must take these developments into account.

Forming a vision In order to reap the benefits and offset or avoid the disadvantages of AVG, correct and timely choices will have to be made. In order to achieve this, parties must cooperate together to fashion a vision on AVG and on the policy to be adopted. A business plan can then be created to serve as a guide for a collective voyage to discover desirable AVG applications.

Preliminary business plan

Preparatory work has been done. The Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management, University of Groningen, SWOV, TNO and TRAIL have drawn up a preliminary business plan, of which this booklet is an abridged version. This plan describes the questions which will have to be answered in the short term, and the actions which need to be taken in a phased and structured manner to gain greater insight into the potential of AVG. A two-pronged approach is proposed: on the one hand practical projects will be carried out which act as a catalyst in expertise development and cooperation amongst the various parties. On the other hand it is envisaged that an AVG Coordinating Body will be set up which acts as a facilitator for an AVG network, provide for coordination and the exchange of information, draw up, amend and implement the AVG Business Plan, and coordinate international action. The projects (and actions) are classifed by the themes technology, scenarios, stakeholders, legal aspects, user-related issues, infrastructure and relationships. These themes relate both to goods transport and to individual and collective passenger transport. On the basis of priorities and dependencies, the proposed approach describes the relationships between the various actions. In order to properly take into account the AVG developments which emerge in the short term, a reactive approach is proposed with a short cycle of one or two years. This approach is intended to provide the government and others with the knowledge and instruments they

need to take short-term policy decisions and to instigate actions. The short-term approach is geared towards allowing a quick response to changes in the environment. An active, iterative approach is proposed regarding the medium and long term. This approach is intended to provide the authorities and others with the knowledge and instruments with which they can develop alternatives and consciously influence the direction of developments.

Cooperation
Assessing the potential of AVG will call for the coordination of forces, the concentration and dissemination of knowledge and understanding: in short, cooperation. The preliminary business plan can be developed further with all relevant and interested parties into an AVG Business Plan. This will provide a basis for determining whether AVG is desirable, and if so, how, in what form and under what conditions. It will help to determine the role for AVG in the overall transport system, and will provide an understanding of the instruments which can be deployed to influence the development of AVG.

AVG: from cruise control to auto-pilot?

The aircraft has now reached cruising altitude. While the passengere are enjoying their free drink, KLM captain Jan Oosterlaan is having a relaxed chat with his co-pilot. Above and to the left an Alitalia machine is passing by - at a safe distance. Air traffic control had announced it and the radar screen confirms its presence with a clear bleep. Their Italian counterparts are probably also chatting about their partners and their children because the work on their flight is also being done by on-board computers. The destination has been programmed in, and the fly-by-wire systems maintain the machine on course at the right altitude. The Wright brothers would be astonished if they could see this scne in the cockpit. And they would be completely bowied over if they knew that the automatic pilot would soon land the aircraft perfectly.

A lot has happened in the nearly 100 years that we have been flying. Not only in terms of aircraft design and aero-engine technology; it is in fact the automatic pilot - computer systems combined with telematics which have taken over most of the flying tasks - which has made flying the safest mode of transport per passenger-kilometre, despite soaring air traffic volumes. And apart from the odd person with a chronic fear of flying, everyone finds it the most normal thing in the world.

Feasibility and desirability

Similar developments are occurring for 'ordinary' traffic. The first systems which support or even take over (routine) driving tasks in both passenger and freight vehicles are already available. This is referred to as Automated Vehicle Guidance (AVG). Whether or not we see, within several decades, passenger and freight vehicles being operated by automatic pilots is unlikely to depend on technical factors. It is rather a matter of whether we wish to see such a development and what sensible, more modest, intermediate forms would be possible. Would such a development on the roads also increase safety and enhance the utilisation of the road capacity and improve traffic flows? Might it not lead to further, undesired growth of traffic volumes? What will be the impact on energy consumption and the emissions of pollutants? And if we are convinced of the desirability of AVG, is it not nevertheless questionable whether drivers will be willing to allow the driving task to be literally taken out of their hands, even partly? Individual and social acceptance still seem a long way off. And what will be the legal ramifications of radical changes in tasks and responsibilities on the road? Who will be responsible if something goes wrong? The driver, sitting with his arms folded, the manufacturer of the on-board electronics system which failed or the road operator with his 'intelligent' infrastructure? What is the role of government in making the desired applications of AVG a reality, what instruments are appropriate and how should the tasks be apportioned between the public authorities and the private parties concerned? What is the place of AVG in the overall transport system?

This preliminary business plan is intended to formulate the right questions and to be helpful in answering these questions.

Questions and choices

There appears to be tremendous potential for AVG to contribute to a fundamental and worthwhile regeneration of the transport system. All kinds of (technical) developments are occurring in this area: applications for individual and collective passenger transport and freight transport; with effects on the main highway network but also on the secondary and urban road network; support systems, some of which require equipment in the vehicle only, while others also require facilities to be installed in the infrastructure so as to achieve an interaction. Major investments are being made worldwide in a whole range of innovations in these areas. Government transport policy must take these developments into account. We shall need to reflect on what is desirable and what is not. And we must make sure we are well prepared: so that we do not make policy on an ad hoc basis but ensure that inevitable decisions are made on the basis of sound and reasoned choices, and in good time. AVG can then be developed and introduced in a gradual and controlled manner. Phasing is feasible because it is not a question of all or nothing. Developments in specific areas of AVG can be curbed, accelerated or adjusted as they emerge. But, just as with driving, acceleration, steering and braking are only sensible if a destination has been chosen. Or at least the general direction we wish to travel. This preliminary business plan describes a process which can help to determine our destination and the direction in which we should proceed. This process will help us to form a vision on AVG and on the policy to be adopted. So that the right questions about AVG can be asked and the right choices made in good time. The broad lines of a forward-looking cooperation between government, research institutes, academia and the private sector are outlined which will give substance to this process. Those with whom this strikes a chord are warmly invited to join in developing a vision on AVG.

State of the art

Automated vehicle guidance is not only a technology of the future. AVG technologies are being developed at full tilt. The concepts of the automated guidance of vehicles 'on the ground' were elaborated decades ago. Concrete applications of AVG were developed not only for passenger and goods transport, but also for service applications and maintenance. There are automatically guided snow-ploughs and rescue vehicles for use in the Channel Tunnel, and automatically controlled buses and vehicles in factories are commonplace. So-called 'people movers' - vehicles without a driver for collective passenger transport at airports, theme parks, etc. - are a familiar sight. In the French town of Lille there is an unmanned metro and in Essen in Germany there is an automatically guided 'Spuhrbus'.

In most cases these are closed systems with their own dedicated infrastructure run by a single operator. In the Dutch 'Combi-Road' project (see box), semi-trailers are pulled by automatically controlled vehicles driving on their own separated (test) track. Some systems, such as those based on the 'Free Ranging On Grid' (FROG) system, permit a greater freedom of movement. This technology was developed for the automated/unmanned transportation of containers but is also used in other applications. For example at Schiphol airport where a 'Parking Hopper' uses this technology to carry passengers within the longterm parking area. And between the metro station Kralingse Zoom and the Bussiness Park Rivium in Capelle aan den IJssel, where a people mover will be operational shortly (see box next page).

COMBI-ROAD
The Netherlands is taking a leading role in developing AVG initiatives for freight transport. Combi-Road is a large-scale project in this field. Combi-Road is a new concept for transporting containers on semi-trailers, which for the time being uses a separate infrastructure with guide rails. The fully automated vehicles are powered electrically. Combi-Road reduces the number of vertical handlings because the container is transferred on its semi-trailer. This allows cost savings and ready integration into a multimodal transport concept. Combi-Road vehicles are designed for a speed of 50 km/hr, but are not subject to congestion, and can therefore play a role in 'just in time' systems. A test track of about 200m is available for the testing and demonstration of the system. In a follow-up project the guide rails will disappear with the introduction of the Magnet Marker Sensing System, a technology developed in the US. A 2 to 3km test track is foreseen so that the effects of driving in convoy can be tested. This will be used to assess the feasibility of applying Combi-Road on a large scale.

Automated Highway Systems

It becomes more complicated when we try to apply AVG on the public highway network. When used on public highways the concept is referred to as 'Automated Highway System' (AHS). Many initiatives and developments in this area can be cited: from Adaptive Cruise Control, already operational and ready for commercialisation, which not only maintains a constant speed but also a proper headway, to more complex systems in which AVG takes on increasing numbers of driving tasks. The technology can all be contained in the vehicle, but data processing and informaties components are sometimes installed in the infrastructure, involving an interaction between road and vehicle. The European research and development programmes Prometheus and DRIVE were oriented towards providing information and support to the driver, and on automating some driving tasks (Collision Avoidance Systems, (Autonomous) Intelligent Cruise Control, Lane Keeping, Intelligent Manoeuvring). The fourth European Commission (EC) framework programme includes projects such as Urban Drive Control, Chauffeur, designed to electronically link lorries into a convoy, and SAVE, which automatically brings a vehicle to rest at the roadside if the driver becomes incapacitated. These studies and research programmes are all generating knowledge and experience which can be utilised in an appropriate mix of AVG applications on a larger scale, or in an 'open' situation. A demonstration was given in September 1996 on the Joshinetsu Expressway in Japan with a platoon of automatically driven cars. Since then a number of Japanese ministries, the research community and the motor and electronics manufacturers have got together to form the Advanced Cruise-Assist Highway System Research Association (AHSRA). The objectives of AHSRA encompass information systems, driver support systems and full automation with the emphasis on short-term traffic safety applications.

PARK SHUTTLE AND PARKING HOPPER

The Schiphol Parking Hopper (operational) and The Rivium Park Shuttle (under construction) are based on the same concept as the fully automated vehicles for container handling at the ECT Sealand Terminal in Rotterdam. This so-called FROG concept (Free Ranging On Grid) was developed in the Netherlands. The special vehicles are assigned a destination by a control centre. The vehicles make use of a built-in map. They determine their position on the basis of the distance traversed in relation to markers in the road. This system requires equipment to be installed in the infrastructure, but this equipment is neither very complex nor very costly. FROG systems are well suited to bridging gaps in an intermodal transport network, for example as connections between car-parks and airport departure halls, between ship and lorry or to connect with metro or train. These systems are seen as having great potential in the short term because they are both feasible in technological terms and socially acceptable.

In the US, the National Automated Highway System Consortium (NAHSC) went ahead with the AHS demonstration which was mandated by the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act. In August 1997 the technical feasibility of AHS was demonstrated to an international audience in San Diego. NAHSC concentrated on the complete automation of the driving task, but the establishment of the American Intelligent Vehicles Initiative (IVI) shifted the focus to subsystems capable of being deployed in the short term.

Platooning Fully automated control of cars at a highway is often associated with platooning. At the NAHSC demonstration in San Diego, in August 1997, the Path programme presented a platoon of eight 'hands and feet off' driving Buicks. Magnetic nails, placed at regular intervals in the road surface, guided the cars along their route.

Concrete systems on the road

As a spin-off from research of this kind, which also has applications in built-up areas, systems are likely to emerge shortly such as ISA (Intelligent Speed Adaptation - a system which controls maximum vehicle speed externally) and automatic parking systems. A pilot project involving the introduction of intelligent speed adaptation is planned for next year in a district of Tilburg. A Collision Warning System has been marketed in the US for years, and Mitsubishi cars can already be found on Japanese roads with an Adaptive Cruise Control (see box). Various other manufacturers have also announced that they are likely to be selling cars with AVG applications this year.

The influence of the Netherlands

It is clear that AVG in the Netherlands cannot be considered in isolation from international developments. But can the Netherlands influence these developments 'at source'? Although there are a number of specialist suppliers, a well-established lorry and bus manufacturing sector and a flourishing information and Communications technology industry in the Netherlands, it has no major car manufacturing industry of its own. Dutch activities will only be meaningful and efficint if carried out within international fora. In the short term, contact with the international motor manufacturing industry is important in order to be prepared for systems which soon will emerge onto the market. In the medium and long term, it is important that the Netherlands participates in international research programmes such as the EC framework programmes, the pre-competitive activities of the European industry and programmes extending beyond European frontiers. International activity can also help to ensure that Dutch interests are represented and promoted as much as possible. This will be of benefit to 'The Netherlands Inc.' and enhance the position of the Netherlands as a centre of expertise.

FROM INTELLIGENT CRUISE CONTROL TO ADAPTIVE CRUISE CONTROL

Cruise control systems capable not only of maintaining a constant speed but also a proper distance to the vehicle ahead are about to be launched onto the market. These systems have long been referred to as Intelligent Cruise Control (ICC). ICCs which can function without communicating with other vehicles or with the infrastructure are referred to as AICC, where the A stands for 'Autonomous'. Alongside 'ICC' and 'AICC', the term ACC (where the A stands for Adaptive or Advanced) is now gaining currency.

At the heart of an ACC system is a sensor which measures the distance to the car ahead as the example in the picture illustrates (Prometheus, 1994): not a simple business, since bends, stationary objects at the roadside and rain or water spray must not be allowed to confuse the sensor. On the basis of speed relative to the car ahead and the difference between the measured distance and the desired distance set, the ACC controls the throttle and, depending on the particular model, the brakes and/or the gears in the case of automatic transmission. The present ACC concept is not intended to have a collision avoidance function. The system works for normal car following situations, but in cases where hard braking is needed, driver intervention is required.

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AVG: pros and cons

By supporting and taking over the tasks of the driver, AVG can greatly enhance safety, reliability and efficiency in traffic systems, as has already occurred in aviation and industrial processes. But this result will not be achieved of its own accord.

First of all, AVG requires equipment in vehicles, in particular sensors, instrumentation and control equipment. More advanced applications require an interaction between vehicles and the infrastructure, which must also therefore be provided with 'intelligence'. There will be a transitional period when not all vehicles will be equipped with on-board intelligent AVG systems, and those that are, not all to the same extent. Vehicles with AVG systems will be driving for some of the time on infrastructure modified to permit an interaction and for some of the time not. The rate of penetration of AVG system components into the vehicle fleet will obviously be related to the rate at which lorries, buses and cars are replaced. It may be that in some situations, perhaps in specific sections of the transport system, it is more sensible and desirable to take a revolutionary leap forward rather than to adopt a more gradual approach with lower benefits. In addition, it is necessary to keep an eye on the interface with developments in technology and policy in related areas such as dynamic traffic management, travel information, developments in engine technology and fuels. These factors all make the transition towards a more widespread and intensive application of AVG long and complex.

Karlsruhe

Stuttgart

Wendiingen

It was announced back in 1994 that the first ICCs would be seen on the European market in two years. Individual European car manufacturers are indicating that they will actually be offering ACC as an option on their top-of-the-range models. ACCs are already being used on Japanese roads on a limited scale. The effects of ACC on traffic flows and driver behaviour have been researched in a number of studies. Results vary from an improvement in the flow of traffic to a deterioration. There are also indications that ACCs have an effect on driving speed and on drivers' reaction times. The particular characteristics of the system (for example the set headway) and the percentage of vehicles equipped with ACC have an important influence on the effects.

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Side-effects
Unintended side effects can also occur. Local improvements in traffic flow may lead to problems being displaced, particularly in passing from intelligent infrastructure to traditional roads. The gain in comfort and convenience of driving as more road users have access to AVG can result in a general increase in road use. Another undesirable side-effect is that automation of sections of the road network may result in drivers becoming less experienced, which may serve them badly on non-automated sections of the road network.

High expectations
Despite this, AVG systems are expected to have a major impact on the 'regular' road network. The NAHSC (National Automated Highway System Consortium) in the US is talking of a two or three-fold improvement in traffic flow rates, fuel savings of 30% - with corresponding benefits in exhaust emissions - and a 50-80% reduction in accidents. There may of course not be the same potential for AVG in the Netherlands, where the traffic conditions and the transport system are different, and this will have to be studied. However AVG does appear to be a very effective traffic management tooi with enormous potential for enhancing traffic flow rates, reliability, safety and environmental quality. There also appear to be major potential economie benefits for industry and for society as a whole. Safety Many accidents are caused by human error. This can be reduced by AVG. This does place very stringent demands on system safety, however. Many small accidents could be replaced by major traffic disasters as in air traffic. Even if the result were a net increase in safety, it is questionable whether infrequent but major disasters would be acceptable to society. Another side-effect of AVG (in the case of partial automation) is that drivers might take extra risks: to compensate, as it were, the increased safety. Such a phenomenon occurs, for example, in the case of drivers of cars equipped with anti-lock braking systems.

:/* /

12

Particular attention needs to be paid to the automated transportation of dangerous goods in view of the risks to the environment and to areas close to transport routes. In the case of public transport, assumptions about subjective safety need to be considered. Efficiency Society finds it easier to accept AVG for freight than for passenger transport because the former poses (or is perceived to pose) significant traffic (and environmental) risks. AVG for freight transport promises to bring economie benefits. Particularly if vehicles have their own dedicated infrastructure, transport can be organised more efficiently, and can better support 'just in time' delivery. And driver costs can be reduced. AVG offers opportunities for public transport, in particular by increasing flexibility and reducing costs. There may be a reduction in employment for professional drivers. AVG may therefore be seen by them as a threat, but this need not be the case under all scenarios. Automated platoons of lorries (as in the European 'Chauffeur' project: see box) will allow drivers of the 'towed' vehicles to rest during a journey. Environment AVG can also cut the fuel consumption, and therefore costs, for conventional vehicles by ensuring a more even traffic flow and by improving air flow around the whole group of cars. There can also be side effects, however, which partially cancel out the benefits. Because of the assumed potential of AVG and the many possibilities for development, scenarios now need to be devised and plans prepared so that the maximum benefit can be reaped, and the potential adverse effects can be offset or avoided in good time.

CHAUFFEUR
The European Chauffeur project involves linking automated lorries electronically to a leading, conventionally driven lorry. Daimler-Benz and Iveco are developing a lorry which can function either conventionally or in an automated mode in a 'platoon' of this kind. There are plans to test the Chauffeur concept in the Brenner pass during 1998.

Since the drivers of the 'towed' lorries can rest during the journey without having to stop, time is saved during thejourney. The Chauffeur concept therefore cuts driver costs - by increasing efficiency - and lightens the task of the drivers.

^E - CHAUFFEUR

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Towards a business plan

Automation of the driving task in one form or another will increasingly become a fact of life. This can take many different forms and occur at many different rates. If we wish to influence the process then it is time to develop a vision on AVG and on the policy to be adopted. The public authorities, research institutes, universities and the private sector can then together seek to answer the many questions which arise, and make choices accordingly. This voyage of discovery has already started. The Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management has taken the first steps, together with the University of Groningen, SWOV, TNO, and TRAIL, towards creating a dynamic AVG business plan. Seven working sessions were held involving experts from government, research institutes, universities and the private sector, in which questions were identified which need to be answered in the short term. Based on these working sessions, a list of actions was drawn up, grouped by the themes technology, scenarios, stakeholders, legal aspects, user-related issues, infrastructure and relationships. These themes (discussed further at the end of this section) relate both to goods transport and to individual and collective passenger transport. Based on priorities and dependencies, the proposed approach describes the relationships between the various actions. This plan sets out in a phased and structured manner the actions which need to be taken to provide greater insight into the potential of AVG.

Communications
While we assume that AVG can both make traffic safer and more efficint, and can increase user convenience, these potential benefits will not necessarily happen of their own volition. Communications - at the right moment, in the right way and with the right parties - is essential to make these developing concepts known, and to learn from the reactions of those involved.

These parties must be brought into the development, research and policy-making. The future users must also be informed, and will need to become involved before making use of possible AVG applications. AVG may initially be seen as infringing the freedom of road users. Success or failure in automating the driving task depends on the concept being accepted by the individual and by society as a whole. Communications will therefore have a vital role in implementing the plan, and must help to build user acceptance.

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Two-pronged approach
In order to produce a business plan which fully recognises the importance of Communications, a two-pronged approach is proposed. On the one hand practical projects will be carried out which act as a catalyst in developing expertise and cooperation amongst the various parties. These projects will include both the activities listed in the proposed approach and described below and pilot studies. On the other hand it is envisaged that a central body will be set up to act as focal point for coordination, the exchange of information and overseeing developments: an 'AVG Coordinating Body' which will act as a facilitative body, provide for coordination and the exchange of information, which would draw up, amend and implement the AVG Business Plan, and coordinate international action. The AVG Coordinating Body will not itseif carry out concrete pilot and other projects, but will play a part in promoting cooperation and coherence, facilitating Communications and, above all, the exchange of information between projects and to interested parties in government and elsewhere. Relations between the Coordinating Body and other existing and developing cooperative organisations should be taken into account.

Proposed approach
Three relevant timescales are regarded in the proposed approach: the short term - in relation to systems becoming available on the market within a few years; the medium term - within the planning term for new infrastructure, i.e. around ten years; the long term - with a horizon of more than ten years, during which new transport concepts may be developed and introduced. The proposed approach is based on the principle that 'thinking' (scenarios, concepts for development) and 'doing' (pilot projects) reinforce one another.

'S

Short term: reactive In order to properly take into account the AVG developments which emerge in the short term, an approach is proposed which allows a rapid response to changes in the environment. This 'reactive' approach has a short cycle of one or two years, and will provide the government and others with the knowledge and instruments they need to take short-term policy decisions and to instigate actions. The approach is geared towards mobilising existing knowledge and quickly generating the additional information needed. This allows a number of alternatives to be formulated and a Communications strategy to be developed. The choice of policy and, therefore, of policy actions is guided by an analysis of the manageability of the alternatives. This approach must of course be kept under review in relation to the vision for the medium and long term: it must be consistent and offer scope and flexibility within this framework.

Approach regarding the short term

scenarios (alternative Mobilise existing knowledge (input): technology infrastructure development identify promising avenues changes in traffic behaviour " interaction AVG/nonAVG possibilities and consequences for secondary and urban road networks behaviourai changes in car use attitudes, acceptance models to quantify effects legal framework stakeholders analysis create communicable pilots and demonstration proiects legal case studies, early AVG images of AVG Communications plan

1
I

strategies) concepts for implementation assessment criteria and methods additional research and pilot projects

The reactive approach regarding the short term involves: knowledge acquisition (by mobilising existing information and developing new one), tools to assist decision-making and action, formulation of alternatives, development of Communications strategy, manageability analysis, policy decision(s), policy actions.

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Approach regarding medium and long term

Doing: pilots and demonstration projects legal case studies, early AVG Thinking: Societal and policy developments scenarios - final images - migration paths concepts for development infrastructure development Relationships and acceptance: Description of stakeholders analysis create communicable images develop Communications plan expiore attitudes and acceptance Traffic-related and behaviourai effects: develop models for quantifying effects expiore behaviourai changes in car use test for changes in traffic behaviour interaction AVG/non-AVG possibilities and consequences for secondary and urban road networks Manageabiltty I analysis Promising avenues More focused (policy) vision Test against: (policy) objectives

Monitor technoic (vehicle and infrastructure) learn im prove adjust

An iterative, cyclical approach is proposed regarding the medium and long term, with the objective of influencing developments. In the meanwhile the Business Plan increases in magnitude and content. Thinking' (scenarios) and 'doing' (pilots) influence and reinforce one another.

Medium and long term: pro-active A pro-active, iterative approach is proposed regarding the medium and long term. This approach is intended to provide the authorities and others with the knowledge and instruments with which they can develop alternatives and consciously influence the direction of developments. Continuous monitoring of emerging technologies and describing the legal possibilities and constraints will generate the input needed to build scenarios and concepts for development. These can then be assessed in terms of their management aspects, behaviourai implications and acceptance, infrastructure and organisation. The same principle is proposed regarding both the medium and the long term. But decisions relating to the medium term are obviously the more urgent. The duration of each iterative cycle will therefore have to be shorter regarding the medium term than regarding the long term. (See flowchart above)

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Themes and actions

The actions included in the proposed approach are classified into the seven chosen themes in the table overleaf: Theme 1 Technology New technologies which are gradually automating the driving task are being developed worldwide. Theme 1 actions emphasise monitoring international developments and assessing the technologies for both vehicles and infrastructure. Theme 2 Scenarios (technical and organisational) In policy terms the prospect of automating the driving function seems worthwhile. Theme 2 relates to vehicles, the infrastructure (including telematics) and the interaction between them; formulating possible final images, migration paths and concepts for development; devising means of testing these concepts in practice with the help of pilot and demonstration projects; the effects and consequences (programming, costs, organisation, etc). Theme 3 Stakeholders, theme 4 Legal aspects, theme 5 User-related issues The opportunities and threats are mainly associated with societal and individual acceptance, the behaviourai aspects and the possibilities and constraints resulting from national and European law. These are the aspects with which themes 3, 4 and 5 are concerned. Theme 6 Infrastructure The focus of this theme is the interaction between AVG and the infrastructure (development). Theme 7 Relationships It emerged during the working sessions that Communications are vital in practically all aspects. International developments in AVG are also crucial. The roles of the various parties need to be determined, both while the policy vision is being elaborated and during the implementation of AVG systems. These roles are not fixed beforehand, and may, for example, be scenario-dependent. These aspects are all considered under theme 7. These themes represent the various areas which will need to be considered in formulating a vision with regard to AVG and to policy in this area. As can be seen in the table overleaf, a weight has been assigned to each of the themes. This weight, lying on a scale from zero to ten for each time horizon, indicates the importance to be attached to that theme during the coming two to three years as proposed in the preliminary business plan.

IS

Action per theme (for the coming 2 to 3 years)

Theme 1: Technology 1.1 1.2 1.3 Monitor technology (vehicle and infrastructure) Formulate technology-independent performance criteria Develop tools, test system conditions

weight

Theme 2: Scenarios 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 Scenario development: final images and migration paths Concepts for development Pilots and demonstration projects Development of models for integrated effect quantification Identify promising avenues

weight

Theme 3: Stakeholders 3.1 3.2 Stakeholders analysis Analyze manageability of AVG developments

weight

7 1/2 X X

Theme 4: Legal aspects 4.1 4.2 Description of legal framework Legal case studies based on early forms of AVG

weight

Theme 5: User-related issues 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 Test for changes in traffic behaviour Expiore attitudes and acceptance Expiore behaviourai changes in car use Interaction between AVG/non-AVG

weight

8 72 X X X X

Theme 6: Infrastructure 6.1 6.2 Infrastructure development

weight

5 1/2 X X

Possibilities and consequences for AVG on the secondary and urban road networks

Theme 7: Relationships 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 Establish an AVG Coordinating Body Establishment and positioning of Business Plan Coordinate international activities Develop Communications strategy Create communicable images of AVG

weight X X X X X

/2

X: applies to this term X: emphasis on this term

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Cooperation
Assessing the potential of AVG will call for the coordination of forces, the concentration and dissemination of knowledge and understanding: in short, cooperation. The first step has been taken: an AVG Business Plan can be developed from the proposed approach. This will provide a basis for determining whether AVG is desirable, and if so, how, in what form and under what conditions. It will help to determine the role for AVG in the overall transport system, and will provide an understanding of the instruments which can be deployed to influence the development of AVG. Agreements will be needed on the form which cooperation is to take: those who will be involved, the distances to be maintained between the participants, who will undertake which of the (proposed) actions, in what sequence and at what pace. Also to be determined are the conditions for cooperation, whether an AVG Coordinating Body is needed and if so, what its roles and tasks should be. Relations between the Coordinating Body and other existing and developing cooperative organisations should of course be taken into account. Another matter requiring attention will be the growth path proposed in the preliminary business plan: as AVG policy takes shape and is implemented, the numbers of parties involved and actively participating will grow.

AVG DEMONSTRATION: DEMO'98

At a closed road section (east of Leiden, part of the N11 under construction) an international demonstration of the state of the art in the field of AVG is held in the summer of 1998. The event is organized by the Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management in cooperation with TNO and the EC. Demonstrations from all around the world are included: The Netherlands, Europe, the US and Japan. Not only high tech prototypes are shown but also products are presented, which are about to be launched on the market.

A five day symposium will run in parallel to the demonstrations. Politicians, policy makers, researchers, interest groups and the private sector are invited to give their opinion on AVG and to propose joint activities. At Demo'98, the progress of the voyage towards the AVG Business Plan is presented.

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Flight KL 662 has landed. Captain Jan Oosterlaan gets into the automated 'Parking Hopper', having completed the debriefing in the crew centre. He is conveyed in comfort to his car in the long-term car park.

Once in his car on the motorway, Jan switches on the cruise control. He has also got used to support systems in his car; he finds they help him to drive calmly, economically and comfortably. Fortunately his car is almost due for replacement. He is looking forward to having a car with the recently announced Adaptive Cruise Control. A new car with this feature will certainly earn his vote.

Colophon
A steering group and a project group were appointed to draw up this preliminary AVG business plan. The steering group consists of: P.H.L. Bovy R. Filarski/E.J. van de Kaa J. Godthelp G.R.M. Jansen S. Oppe C.W.A.O. van Raalten J.A. Rothengatter M.T. Zandstra (Chairman) Delft Technical University/TRAIL Transport Research Centre (V&W-AW) TNO Human Factors Research Institute (TNO-TM) TNO Traffic and Transport (TNO-VV) Institute for Road Safety Research SWOV Rijkswaterstaat (V&W-RWS) University of Groningen Directorate-General for Passenger Transport (V&W-DGP) The contact person at the Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management Directorate-General for Passenger Transport is Mr. J.C. van der Zwart. The members of the project group are: B. van Arem K.A. Brookhuis M.J. Comet (project leader) T. Heijer V.A.W.J. Marchau A.P. de Vos H J. van Zuylen TNO Institute of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional 1 Vvelopment (TNO-Inro) University of Groningen Transport Research Centre (V&W-AW) Institute for Road Safety Research SWOV Delft Technical University/TRAIL TNO Human Factors Research Institute (TNO-TM) Transport Research Centre (V&W-AW)

For more information on the preliminary business plan contact Ms. M.J. Comet, Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management, Transport Research Centre, telephone: (+31) (0)10-2825888. For more information on the cooperation in relation to the business plan, contact: Mr. J.C. van der Zwart, Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management, DGP, telephone: (+31) (0)70-3516472. A more detailed version of the preliminary business plan (on which this booklet is based) can be requested from Ms. Comet. The full version of the preliminary business plan contains a detailed description of the proposed actions and a detailed account of the current state of the art in key AVG fields.

23

Editor and production Awareness, The Hague

Graphic design

Drupsteen + Straathof, The Hague

Print A-twee, Waddinxveen

Pictures/illustrations p.4/5: p.6: p.8/9: p.9: p.11: p.12/13: p.15/16/17: p.21: Gerald Stone, PATH Combi-Road Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Bill Stone, PATH Prometheus / Porsche Chauffeur project AVV / Drupsteen + Straathof Bureau DST

May 1998

-4

This is a publication of the Dutch Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management in cooperation with:

RG

University of Groningen, Centre for Environmental and Traffic Psychology Institute for Road Safety Research SWOV

SM OII
xP.RAlL

The Netherlands Research School for Transport, Infrastructure and Logistics Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research

TM*