Section 11.

5 Bayes Theorem and Ch 12-13 Lecture note review for test 4

m
i
i i
k k
k
B A P B P
B A P B P
A B P
1
) | ( ) (
) | ( ) (
) | (
, where
m k ...... , 3 , 2 , 1
. The conditional probability
) | ( A B P
k
is often called the posterior probability of
k
B
.
1. The Belgian 20-fra! coin (B20), the "talian #00-lire coin ("#00), and the $on!
%ong #-dollar ($%#) are appro&iately the sae si'e. (oin p)rse one ((1)
contains si& of each of these coins. (oin p)rse two ((2) contains nine B20s, si&
"#00s, and three $%#s. * fair fo)r-sided die is rolled. "f the o)tcoe is +1,, a
coin is selected randoly fro (1. "f the o)tcoes belong to +2, 3, -,, a coin is
selected randoly fro (2. .ind
a)
) #00 (I P
, the probability of selecting an "talian coin
b)
) #00 | 1 ( I C P
, the conditional probability that the coin selected fro (1,
gi/en that it was an "talian coin.
Soution0 1e ha/e
- 2 1 ) 1 ( C P
and
- 2 3 ) 2 ( C P
. 1e !now that (yo) ay draw a
tree diagra)
3 2 1 13 2 4 ) 1 | #00 ( C I P
,
3 2 1 13 2 4 ) 1 | 20 ( C B P
and
3 2 1 13 2 4 ) 1 | # ( C HK P
, and yo) can find for (2 in the sae way.
a)
3 2 1 12 2 - - 2 3 5 3 2 1 - 2 1 5 3 2 1 ) 2 ( ) 2 | #00 ( ) 1 ( ) 1 | #00 ( ) #00 ( + + C P C I P C P C I P I P
b)
- 2 1
3 2 1
3 2 1 5 - 2 1
) #00 (
) 1 | #00 ( ) 1 (
) #00 | 1 (
I P
C I P C P
I C P
2. (!omewor" #ro$em 1) The Belgian 20-fra! coin (B20), the "talian #00-lire
coin ("#00), and the $on! %ong #-dollar ($%#) are appro&iately the sae si'e.
(oin p)rse one ((1) contains si& of each of these coins. (oin p)rse two ((2)
contains nine B20s, si& "#00s, and three $%#s. * fair fo)r-sided die is rolled. "f
the o)tcoe is +1,, a coin is selected randoly fro (1. "f the o)tcoes belong
to +2, 3, -,, a coin is selected randoly fro (2. .ind
a)
) 20 (B P
, the probability of selecting a Belgian coin (%nswer& 11'24)
b)
) 20 | 1 ( B C P
, the conditional probability that the coin selected fro (1,
gi/en that it was a Belgian coin. (*nswer0 2'11)
3. * pac!age, say *, of 2- croc)s b)lbs contains eight yellow, eight white, and eight
p)rple croc)s b)lbs. * pac!age, say B, of 2- croc)s b)lbs contains si& yellow, si&
white and 12 p)rple croc)s b)lbs. 6ne of the two pac!ages is selected at rando.
a) "f three b)lbs fro this pac!age were planted and all three yielded white
flowers, cop)te the conditional probability that the pac!age * was
selected.
b) "f the three b)lbs yielded one yellow, one white, and one p)rple flower,
cop)te the conditional probability that the pac!age B was selected.
7ol)tion0 7)ppose 111 eans three white b)lbs, then
202-
20
) 3 , 2- (
) 3 , 4 (
) | (
C
C
B WWW P
,
202-
#4
) 3 , 2- (
) 3 , 3 (
) | (
C
C
A WWW P
, also
2
1
) ( ) ( B P A P
a)
84
#4
202- 2 20 5 2 2 1 202- 2 #4 5 2 2 1
202- 2 #4 5 2 2 1
) | ( ) ( ) | ( ) (
) | ( ) (
) | (

B WWW P B P A WWW P A P
A WWW P A P
WWW A P
b)
113
#-
202-
12 5 4 5 4
5 2 2 1
202-
3 5 3 5 3
5 2 2 1
202-
12 5 4 5 4
5 2 2 1
) | ( ) ( ) | ( ) (
) | ( ) (
) | (

B YWP P B P A YWP P A P
B YWP P B P
YWP B P
-. (!omewor" #ro$em 2) * pac!age, say *, of 2- croc)s b)lbs contains eight
yellow, eight white, and eight p)rple croc)s b)lbs. * pac!age, say B, of 2- croc)s
b)lbs contains si& yellow, si& white and 12 p)rple croc)s b)lbs. 6ne of the two
pac!ages is selected at rando.
a) "f three b)lbs fro this pac!age were planted and all three yielded p)rple
flowers, cop)te the conditional probability that the pac!age B was
selected. (%nswer& ()B*(((+ , 55'-.)
b) "f the three b)lbs yielded one yellow, one white, and one p)rple flower,
cop)te the conditional probability that the pac!age * was selected.
(%nswer& ()%*/0(+ , 32'5.+
#. (!omewor" #ro$em 3) 9i/en two )rns, s)ppose )rn " contains - blac! and 8
white balls. :rn "" contains 3 blac!, 1 white, and - yellow balls. 7elect an )rn and
then select a ball.
a) 1hat is the probability that yo) obtain a blac! ball; (%nswer& -5'11-)
b) 1hat is the probability that yo) obtain a ball fro )rn "", gi/en that the ball is a
blac! ball; (%nswer& 33'-5)
4. (!omewor" #ro$em 4) *n absence inded n)rse is to gi/e <r. Brown a pill
each day. The probability that the n)rse forgets to adinister the pill is 223. "f he
recei/es the pill, the probability that <r. Brown will die is 123. "f he does not get
the pill, the probability that he will die is =. <r. Brown died. 1hat is the
probability that the n)rse forgot to gi/e <r. Brown the pill; (%nswer& .'11)
Soution hints0 B > the n)rse forgets to gi/e pill, * > do not forget, ? > <r.
Brown dies. @ow A(B) > 223, A(?|*) > 123, A(?) > A(*)A(?|*)BA(B)A(?|B), find
A(B|?).
Ch12-130
1. Cet the p..f. of X be defined by
- , 3 , 2 , D 2 ) ( x x x f
. Eraw a) a bar
graph for this p..f. b) a probability histogra for this p..f.
Soution0 To draw bar graph and histogra find f(2) > 22D, f(3) > 32D, f(4) > -2D,
then plot & along hori'ontal line and f(x) along /ertical line. Fe/iew fro yo)r
note.
2. 9i/en the p..f.
- , 3 , 2 , 2 ) ( x c x x f
. Eeterine c and rewrite the p..f.
.ind
) 3 2 ( x P
Soution0 .ind f(2) > 22c, f(3) > 32c, f(4) > -2c, and then set 22c B 32c B -2c=1 and
find c= 9.
) 3 2 ( x P
> A(2) B A(3) > 22D B 32D > #2D
3. Cet the rando e&perient be the cast of a pair of )nbiased dice, each ha/ing
three faces n)bered 1, 2, 3, and let the rando /ariable X be the prod)ct of
the dice. Eeterine p..f. f(x) of X and draw the bar graph of f(x). .ind
) 3 2 ( x P
Soution0 The saple space is 1,1 1,2 1,3
2,1 2,2 2,3
3,1 3,2 3,3
@ow P(X > 1) > 12D P(X > 2) > 22D P(X > 3) > 22D P(X > -) > 12D
P(X > 4) > 22D P(X > D) > 12D
The p.. f is defined by

'

4 , 3 , 2 , D 2 2
D , - , 1 , D 2 1
) (
x
x
x f
@ow yo) can draw the bar graph.
D 2 - D 2 2 D 2 2 ) 3 ( ) 2 ( ) 3 2 ( + + P P x P
-. *ccording to a s)r/ey, 80G of all st)dents at a large )ni/ersity s)ffer fro
ath an&iety. Three st)dents are randoly selected fro this )ni/ersity. Cet
X be the n)ber of st)dents in the saple who s)ffer fro ath an&iety.
Ee/elop the probability distrib)tion of X.
Soution0 Eraw the tree diagra and find the distrib)tion
X P(X)
0 .028
1 .13D
2 .--1
3 .3-3
#. Cet X ha/e the p..f.
- , 3 , 2 , 1 , 10 2 ) ( x x x f
, find E(X) and Har(X).
Soution0 E(X) > 1(1210) B 2(2210) B 3(3210) B -(-210) > 3
Har(X) > 1 D ) 10 2 - ( - ) 10 2 3 ( 3 ) 10 2 2 ( 2 ) 10 2 1 ( 1
2 2 2 2
+ + +
4. 9i/en the following distrib)tions, find ean

and /ariance
2
. (Coo! at
te&t boo! pI-81, I 14)
a)
3 , 2 , 1 , 0 , ) - 2 3 ( ) - 2 1 (
3
) (
3

,
_

x
x
x f
x x
b)
- , 3 , 2 , 1 , 0 , ) 2 2 1 (
-
) (
-

,
_

x
x
x f
8. 9i/en the p.d.f. c x x x f < < 0 , - 2 ) (
3
. .ind c. .ind
) 3 1 ( x P
.
Soution0 2 1
14
1
14
1 - 2
-
0 0
-
3

1
]
1

c
c x
dx x
c
c
14 2 1# 14 2 1 1
14
- 2 ) 3 1 (
2
1
- 2
1
3

1
]
1

x
dx x x P
3. * noral distrib)tion is gi/en with a ean of 8# and standard de/iation of #.
.ind a)
) 3# 4# ( x P
b)
) 4# ( x P
c)
) 3# ( x P
Soution0 a)
) 3# 4# ( x P
>D#.-#G b)
G 82 . D8 -882 . # . ) 4# ( + x P
c)
) 3# ( x P
> .# B .-882 > D8.82
Eraw noral c)r/e and /erify the res)lts.