PROBABILITY UNIT In this unit students will express probabilities as a fraction, decimal, percent.

Identify the ratio of number of successes of an event to the number of trials. Key Concepts: A probability describes mathematically how likely it is that something will happen. We can talk about the probability that it will rain tomorrow or the probability that Toronto will win their next hockey match. We often use words like certain, likely, unlikely or impossible to describe the chance of something happening. Example Question Look at the three events below. Decide which of the words certain, likely, unlikely or impossible best describes how likely each event is to occur. (a) Your maths teacher is older than you. (b) Toronto will win the Stanley Cup. (c) You obtain a seven when rolling a normal dice. (d) It will rain somewhere in Canada during the next week.

The Probability Line We can represent probabilities on a number line, as shown in the diagram below. Remember the lines can use decimals, fractions or percents

An unlikely event would have a probability between 0 and . A likely event would have a probability between and 1. Example Question Look at the probability line below. The probabilities of the events A, B, and C have been marked on the line.

Look at the descriptions of three events below and match them up with the letters A, B and C on the line above. (a) You roll an unbiased dice and get an even number. (b) Christmas Day is in the next twelve months. (c) You pick a card from a normal pack of cards and get an ace.

Grade 7- Math- Probability- Tree Diagrams EXPLANATION You can use a tree diagram to determine possible outcomes. Example: The tree diagram below shows the possible outcomes for a family with two children. 1st child 2nd child Boy----------------->Boy ----------------->Girl Girl----------------->Boy ----------------->Girl Outcome B-B B-G G-B G-G

Try it out Question 1. In Yuki's kitchen, there are three kinds of bread: white, whole wheat, and pumpernickel. There are three kinds of jam: blueberry, strawberry, and raspberry. Yuki's sister gave her a piece of bread with jam. a) Use a tree diagram to show all the possible combinations. b) What is the probability that Yuki had blueberry jam on her bread? c) What is the probability that Yuki had pumpernickel bread with strawberry jam? Definition of Theoretical Probability Probability is a likelihood that an event will happen.

We can find the theoretical probability of an event using the following ratio:

Lets do a couple of examples. Solved Examples on Theoretical Probability Example 1 If we toss a fair coin, what is the probability that a tail will show up? Solution: Tossing a tail is the favorable outcome here. When you toss a coin there are only 2 possible outcomes: a Head or a Tail So the options for tossing a tail are 1 out of 2. We can also represent probability as a decimal or as a percent.

Example 2 A bag contains 20 marbles. 15 of them are red and 5 of them are blue in color. Find the probability of picking a red marble. Lets first answer a few questions here: If I am going to randomly pick a marble from the bag then what results can I have: Ill either pick a red marble or a blue one. My next question is what the chances of picking a red marble are: There are 15 red marbles and just 5 blue marbles. Its obvious that we have three times as many red marbles as blue marbles. So, the chance of picking a red marble is more than that of the blue one. Therefore, the probability of picking a red marble is:

Experimental Probability Definition of Experimental Probability

Experimental probability of an event is the ratio of the number of times the event occurs to the total number of trials.

Examples of Experimental Probability

Sam rolled a number cube 50 times. A 3 appeared 10 times.

Then the experimental probability of rolling a 3 is 10 out of 50 or 20%. Solved Example on Experimental Probability A coin is tossed 60 times. 27 times head appeared. Find the experimental probability of getting heads. Choices: A. B. C. D. Correct Answer: B Solution: Step 1: Experimental probability = number of times the event occurs / total number of trials. Step 2: Number of times heads appeared = 27. Step 3: Total number of experiments = 60. Step 4: So, experimental probability of getting a head = = .