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Normal Distribution

Introduction

In real life normally the process output follows the pattern of normal distribution. This can be best explained with the help of dice. A dice has six faces. When the dice is rolled on, chance of appearing a number from 1, 2, 5, 6 on top of the dice is one in six.

A Dice

Chance of appearing 4 on top, is one in six or 1/6

Assumptions

Each dice represents a cause.

Number appearing on top of the dice represents contribution


of that dice (cause) to the total effect.

Sum of the numbers appearing on top of each dice represents the total effect.

Case - When Only One Factor/Dice is present

Let us roll the dice say 300 times. Since there is only one dice, the number appearing on top and the sum are same. Out of 300 rolling of dice, number of times we get the number as 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 is approximately 50 (300/6). If we make histogram of sums then we get uniform distribution.

Total Effect With only One Dice ( Factor )

N=300

50 40 Frequency

30
20 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Sum of numbers

Case - When Only Two Factors are present

The sum of the numbers appearing on top varies between 2, 3, 4 .10, 11, 12.
Chances of getting sum as 2 (1+1) and 12 (6+6) is (1/6)(1/6) = 1/36, which is low. Chances of getting sum as 7 is highest because there are several combinations; (6+1), (2+5), (3+4). Histogram for the sums is triangular.

Total Effect With two Dices ( Factors ) 50 Frequency


N=300

40
30

20
10 0

10 4 6 8 Sum of numbers

12

Case - When 3 Factors are Present

The sum of the numbers appearing on top varies between 3, 4, 5,6,7,8,9 .16, 17, 18.

Chances of getting sum as 3 (1+1+1) and 18 (6+6+6) is (1/6)(1/6)(1/6) = 1/216, which is quite low.
Chances of getting sum as 10 is more because there are several combinations.

Distribution pattern for the sum is a curve with hump.

Total Effect With 3 dices ( Factors )

50
Frequency

40

30
20 10 0

6 9 12 Sum of Numbers

15

18

Case - Total Effect when 4 Dices ( Factors ) 50 Frequency 40 30 20 10

With only 4 factors, the distribution of outcome is near normal

0
4 8 12 16 20 24

Sum of Numbers

Systems In Real Life

In real life we have several factors which effect the output of a system. For example, in manufacturing setup, we have as bearing play, coolant quality, voltage fluctuation, variation in material property, changes in humidity,

operators mood, inspection methods etc. Each one of them has different
pattern. They act on the process simultaneously with different combinations; hence the process output follows the normal distribution.

In Real Life, We have Normal Distribution


Output of Process is normal Distribution Operator

Hydraulic Fluctuation

Material

Voltage Fluctuation

Humidity Time

Coolant
Bearing Play

Inspection Methods