Ch5.1, Ch5.

2 Concepts of Probability
Topics:
Experiments, outcomes, sample space, and events
Union, Intersection, complement, disjoint Events
Probability
Axioms of Probability
Properties of Probability
Experiments, outcomes, sample space, and events
Experiment Possible Outcomes
Toss a dice 1, 2, , !, ", #
$lip a coin %, T
$lip 2 coins %%, %T, T%, TT
Examine 2 fuses in se&uence 'fail or pass( PP, P$, $P, $$
T)e sample space, S, of an experiment is t)e set 'collection( of all possible
outcomes from an experiment
An event, A, is a subset of t)e sample space *+
Ex+ T)ree fuses are examined in se&uences and eac) receive a pass 'P( or fail
'$( ratin, as a result of t)e inspection+
'1( * - sample space - .PPP, PP$, $PP, P$P, P$$, $P$, $$P, $$$/
'2( 0et A denote t)e event t)at exactly one fuse fails inspection+ %o1 1ould A
be defined2
A - .PP$, $PP, P$P/
Union, ntersection, complement, dis!oint events
3onsider t)e fuses example: let 4 denote t)e event t)at at most one fuse
fails inspection+ 5)at is B A 2 B A 2 A62 B? Are events A and 4 disjoint2
A - .PP$, $PP, P$P/
4 - . PPP, PP$, $PP, P$P/
B A -. PPP, PP$, $PP, P$P/-4, B A -.PP$, $PP, P$P/-A
1
*ometimes it is useful to use 7enn dia,ram to visuali8e t)e relations)ips
bet1een events
'1( B A , t)e union of events A and 4+ It reads as 9A union 4: or 9A or 4: 'T)e
area covered by eit)er A or 4(
'2( B A , t)e intersection of events A and 4+ It reads as 9A intersect 4: or 9A and 4:
'T)e area covered by bot) A and 4(
'( A, t)e complement of event A+ It reads as 9A complement: or 9not A: 'T)e
area inside * but not covered by A(
'!( A and 4 are disjoint+ T)at is, = B A ; 'A and 4 do not )ave common part(
S
A
B
A
B
A
A
A
B
2
S
S
S
Probability
T)e probability of an event, A, denoted as P' A (, is a &uantity to describe )o1
li<ely event A occurs+
Ex+ P' A ( - = Event A 1ill never occur
"xiom of probability
1+ T)e probability of any event must lie bet1een = and 1+
T)at is, for any event A,
0 ( ) 1 P A
2+ T)e total probability assi,ned to t)e sample space of an experiment must be 1+
T)at is, P'*( - 1
Properties of Probability
1+ #he addition rule : for any 2 events A and B,
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) B A P B P A P B A P + =
't)is s)ould be clear if 1e vie1 P'A( is t)e area covered by A in t)e
sample space *(
2. If A and B are dis!oint, t)en ( ) 0 P A B =
As a result, t)e addition rule for disjoint events can be simplified as
( ) ( ) ( ) P A B P A P B = +
'only true if A and 4 are disjoint(
+ #he complement rule : for any event A,
P' A ( - 1 > P' A (
Proof:
', S A A =
A and A6 are disjoint+ *o
3
1 - P'*( - P'A( ? P'A6(
Ex. A student is randomly selected from a class 1)ere "@ of t)e class is leftA)anded and "=@
are sop)omores+ 5e furt)er <no1 t)at "@ of t)e class consists of leftA)anded sop)omores+
'1( 5)at is t)e probability of selectin, a student is eit)er left )anded BC a
sop)omore2
5)at 1e <no1:
Define A - event t)at a randomly selected student is leftA)anded
4 - event t)at a randomly selected student is a sop)omore
P'A( - =+", P'4( - =+", and ( ) 0.05 P A B =
5)at 1e 1ant: ( ) P A B
*olve: ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 0.35 05 0.05 0.8 P A B P A P B P A B = + = + =
'2( 5)at is t)e probability of selectin, a ri,)tA)anded sop)omore2
5)at 1e 1ant: ( ) ' P A B
*olve: 5e can vie1 from t)e 7enn dia,ram t)at ( ) ' ( ) B A B A B =
+ *o
( ) ( ) ' ( ) P B P A B P A B = +
'since ( ) ' ( ) A B and A B
are disjoint(+ T)at is,
( ) ' ( ) ( ) 0.5 0.05 0.45 P A B P B P A B = = =
'( Are t)e events of selecting a left-handed student and selecting a
sophomore considered to be disjoint2 5)y2
5)at 1e 1ant: Are A and 4 disjoint2 T)at is, is
A B =
2
*olve: If
A B =
, t)en
( ) ( ) 0. P A B P = =
4ut it is ,iven t)at
( ) 0.05 P A B =
E=, so A and 4 cannot be disjoint+
4
Ex. A certain system can experience 2 different types of defects+ 0et i
A
, i-1,2,
denote t)e event t)at t)e system )as a defect of type i+ *uppose t)at
( ) ( ) ( ) 17 . 0 , 10 . , 15 .
2 1 2 1
= = = A A P A P A P
'1( 5)at is t)e probability t)at t)e system )as bot) type 1 and type 2
defects2
5)at 1e <no1:
( ) ( ) ( ) 17 . 0 , 10 . , 15 .
2 1 2 1
= = = A A P A P A P
5)at 1e 1ant:
1 2
( ) P A A
*olve: *ince ( )
1 2 1 2 1 2
( ) ( ) ( ) P A A P A P A P A A = +
, so
( )
1 2 1 2 1 2
( ) ( ) ( ) 0.15 0.1 0.17 0.08 P A A P A P A P A A = + = + =
'2( 5)at is t)e probability t)at t)e system )as at least one type of defects2
5)at 1e 1ant:
1 2
( ) P A A
*olve: It is ,iven to be =+1F
'( 5)at is t)e probability t)at t)e system )as no defects2
5)at 1e 1ant:
1 2
[( ) '] P A A
*olve:
1 2 1 2
[( ) '] 1 ( ) 1 0.17 0.83 P A A P A A = = =

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