DC-AMS NEWSLETTER
W ASHINGTON , DC C HAPTER OF THE A MERICAN M ETEOROLOGICAL S OCIETY
WWW . DC - AMS . ORG
C HAIR ’ S C ORNER
by Steve Tracton
I’ll keep it brief this time and defer to
Andrea Bleistein’s Vice-Chair’s Corner. I ex-
pend my wordiness in this newsletter in an ar-
ticle below on winter weather, one of my fa-
vorite subjects. Yes, as you might have guessed
already, I’m a “snow crow” and look forward
to any opportunity to “bang the drums” for a
big snowstorm. I suspect I’m not alone in this
regard, so for those who just can’t get enough
of this, we are having a special meeting Jan
15th featuring winter weather expert, Paul Kocin
– stay tuned to your inbox for the meeting an-
nouncement. And, two weeks later, on Jan 30,
we’ll have our regularly scheduled monthly
meeting featuring Mike Mogil discussing his
new book, “Extreme Weather”. Finally, I’m
getting on my “hobby horse” to once again
encourage your submissions for news and
notes, including “about our members” contri-
butions, short pieces on local weather events,
pictures of interest, commentary on issues of
current interest/controversy, career opportuni-
ties, meetings and events of likely interest, and
….whatever. The fact of the matter is that to
date responses to this request have been quite
underwhelming. Why? I don’t now have an
answer.
Have a great and safe holiday sea-
son!!!
Steve
NOVEMBER /
DECEMBER 2007
V ICE -C HAIR ’ S C ORNER
by Andrea Bleistein
I’d like to take this opportunity to once
again thank the membership for their continuing
participation in our monthly meetings. We’ve had
some great conversations so far ranging from
global warming, hurricanes, weather services
modernization and even rogue waves. There will
be more interesting meetings coming in the New
Year too!
As a meteorologist by education and
National Weather Service (NWS) employee, I
have recently become quite enthusiastically in-
volved in learning about how integrating social
science tools and techniques could further im-
prove the NWS mission of protecting life and
property. I’d like to enhance our Chapter’s fo-
cus on the more physical science topics by bring-
ing up a very exciting initiative that is gaining
momentum across the weather enterprise. A pro-
gram known as Weather and Society * Integrated
Studies (WAS*IS), which has its roots in the
NCAR Societal Impacts Program (SIP) and the
US Weather Research Program, is educating the
weather enterprise on how to become more
aware of the value of using social science re-
search when developing and providing scientific
information for the benefit of society. WAS*IS
has been able to host a few workshops that con-
sist of a 9-day agenda to bring together meteo-
rologists, hydrologists, anthropologists, geog-
raphers, and many other representatives from
government, academia and industry to learn
about research methods (i.e. surveys), risk per-
ception and decision making, vulnerability and
resilience, communication tools, and analysis of
the intersection of weather and society.
(continued)
(Vice-Chair’s Corner - contined)

WAS*IS is a grassroots movement to effect change within the weather enterprise

by fully integrating social science into meteorological research and practice in a compre-
hensive and sustained way. The WAS*IS mission is to empower practitioners, researchers,
and stakeholders to forge new relationships and to use new tools and concepts for more
effective socio-economic applications and evaluations of weather information and prod-
ucts. By emphasizing the importance of developing a life-long cohort as well as learning
social-science tools and concepts, WAS*IS can address societal impacts in real and sus-
tained ways to change the culture from what WAS to what IS the future of integrated
weather studies.

Feel free to check out their website at: http://www.sip.ucar.edu/wasis/ and the No-
vember 2007 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society article:
http://ams.allenpress.com/archive/1520-0477/88/11/pdf/i1520-0477-88-11-1729.pdf

WAS*IS also has links to the recently formed Ad Hoc Committee on Uncertainty in
Forecasts (ACUF) as mentioned in the DC-AMS October newsletter. The ACUF is com-
posed of representatives from all areas of the weather Enterprise, including some social
scientists. Those who have volunteered their time for this committee have noted the impor-
tance of moving beyond development of ensemble data and products to understanding the
roles of the Enterprise in conveying and utilizing information on forecast uncertainties to
enhance the value of forecasts to various user communities.

To further the efforts of the WAS*IS movement, support was provided for approxi-
mately 25 NWS employees representing field operations to attend a special WAS*IS work-
shop. The workshop took place on October 24-25th and enabled these individuals to meet
and discuss how to speak with one voice when promoting the integration of social science
methods and techniques and in supporting WAS*IS initiatives and research opportunities.
This workshop is just one example of how the WAS*IS program alumni are trying to instill
a culture change in their associated organizations and institutions. It is my hope that all
those who work in atmospheric and related sciences will begin to attain and apply an under-
standing for assessing the societal and economic impacts of forecasts that go far beyond the
usual set of verification numbers. Said approach will enable the improvement of products
and services in terms relevant to user needs and requirements for saving lives, increasing
public preparedness, and enhancing our way of living.

Andrea
 SNOW: WINTER 2008-2008
By Steve Tracton

For snow lovers like myself, the first week in December brought the first snowfall in the DC metro region, with
amounts up to 5” (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/events/?event=20071205)
– not all that much, but a good start to the winter season. So, what will the balance of the winter bring? Whether it be
wooly caterpillars, hording of nuts by squirrels, sunspot activity, crystal balls. or based upon sophisticated statistical
and dynamical model output, one thing is pretty certain, reliably predicting a “big one”, a single major snowstorm in
the DC region, more than a one (perhaps eventually two) weeks in advance are essentially nil. Predictability consider-
ations indicate that this is will never change Nor are outlooks for seasonal accumulations of snow likely to be consis-
tently better than climatology (“average”, see below). Of course, that doesn’t stop those, who for some possibly
understandable reason (e.g., management), attempt to buck this fact of life. For example:

“Above average temperatures, and above average snowfall”;

Bob Ryan (http://wrc.weatherplus.com/wxplocal/14609048/detail.html)

“…. This leads me to believe that this winter will be somewhat near normal for snowfall if not a touch below
average”; Doug Hill (http://www.wjla.com/blogs/weather/)

Average temperature and average snowfall;

Mike Daniels (http://www.weatherplus.com/weathernews/14780817/detail.html)

There are many, many other pronouncements on the 2006/2007 winter, including of course, the Farmer’s
Almanac - see for yourself by Googling something like “winter weather forecast,”

BUT: caveat emptor

A terrific place to check out the climatology of local snow and historical aspects of snowstorms
locally is the Baltimore/Washington NWS Forecast Office site:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winterwx.htm.
 The 10 biggest snowstorms of record in Washington, DC and Baltimore

NOTE: Washington DC’s normal winter snowfall is 17 inches, but just north and west of the city, the normal increases
to 22 inches. This includes the Baltimore area. In the storms mentioned above, it is typical for areas to the north and
west of DC to see 150% of that snowfall.

Snowiest Month = 35.2 inches during Feb. 1899.

Snowiest Seasons = 54.4 inches during 1898-1899 winter; 46.0 inches during 1995-1996 winter.

Season with the Least Snow = only 0.1 inches of snow fell in 1972-1973.

Coldest Temperature = -150 F on Feb. 11, 1899

NOTE: Even in winters that on average turn out to be warm and dry and are perfectly predicted by CPC, there is
always the possibility of cold spells with big-time snowstorms, the classic example being the “Presidents’ Day” storm,
February 18-19, 1979 (third biggest in the table -- previous page).

Finally, see next page -- Waiting for Snow

Waiting For Snow
(c) 1995 John McCutcheon/Appalsongs (ASCAP) & Si Kahn/Joe Hill Music (ASCAP);

http://www.folkmusic.com/record/r_winter.htm#Snow

The nights are so long Bright mountains of sun

They shorten the day
Over the mountains
The sky’s turning gray
The geese all fly southward
As homeward they go
I’m sitting here waiting
And waiting for snow
Waiting for snow
The first of the year
I just can’t believe
That it almost is here
Like cousins and Christmas
And places to go
Nothing takes longer
Than waiting for snow
Waiting for sledding
Waiting for fun
Piled high around me
To make footprints and angels
Waiting for snowballs
For shouting and laughter
For sliding down hillsides
With hot chocolate after
The longer I’m waiting
The longer it takes
‘Til I stick out my tongue
To catch the first flakes
Wash your face in the snow
You’ll be pretty all year
Look out the window
It’s finally here
Waiting for snow
Waiting for you
To bundle me up
Like you always do
Your glove in my mitten
Together we’ll go
In our brand new snow

For avid snow lovers like myself, I don’t think anything can say it better than:
“Nothing takes longer, Than waiting for snow”
 First Snow of the Season

Columbia, MD, December 6, 2007 (By Steve Tracton)

 DC- AMS Treasure’s Report DC- AMS Treasure’s Report
October 2007 November 2007

10/01/07 Beginning Balance: $ 8,148.44 11/01/07 Beginning Balance: $ 8,134.33

Income: Income:

Memberships via website and mail $150.00 Memberships via website and mail $200.00
Memberships via Paypal Memberships via Paypal (7)
(6 Renewals, 1 New Ed, (Paypal balance carry-over from October)
1 Ed Renew): $180.00 $60.70
October Meeting Member Food Payments
Total Income: $330.00 $140.00

Total Income: $535.70

Expenses:
Expenses:
Oct. Monthly Bank Services for cancelled checks
$5.00 Nov. Monthly Bank Services for cancelled checks
$5.00
PayPal Fees (10 Transaction) $8.27
PayPal Fees (7 Transaction) $6.05
Varying percentages for $5(9%), $15(5%),
$25(4%), $35(3.75%) —— Varying percentages for $5(9%), $15(5%),
$25(4%), $35(3.75%) ——
Check #436 to Andrea Bleistein for food reim-
bursement $29.21 Check #438 to Steve Tracton - Oct. Mtg catering
Check #437 to Steve Tracton for mugs & food $200.13
$301.63 Check #439 to for November Mtg Food

**Business CD opened $4,000.00

Total Expenses: -$344.11
Total Expenses: -$4,231.47

Ending Balance (10/31/07): $8,134.33 Business CD $4,000.00

Ending Balance (11/31/07): $8,438.56

 CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
THREE MONTH OUTLOOK

JANUARY - MARCH 2008, TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK

JANUARY - MARCH 2008, PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK

 DC-AMS Meeting Minutes, Oct. 28, 2007
Featuring, Ken Graham, National Weather Service
Topic: National Weather Service Modernization
by
Alan Cohn DC-AMS; Recording Secretary

The October 29, 2007 meeting of the DC-AMS was held at the offices of the American Association for the
Advancement of Science. Before introducing the featured speaker, Steve Tracton reflected on September’s DC-
AMS meeting featuring Chris Mooney, author of Storm World. Steve also commented that, despite predictions of
increased storm activity, hurricane activity for 2007 has been well below forecast, leading the Drudge Report to
claim “Forecasters Blow It” on their website. Ken Graham noted, however, that 2007 featured two records for
hurricanes—the fastest deepening storm and the first time that two Category 5 hurricanes hit North America on
the same day.

Steve followed with several more announcements, including the November DC-AMS meeting which will
feature Linwood Vincent of the Naval Research Laboratory, discussing his research on rogue waves. In January,
DC-AMS will host Mike Mogil, author of the new book, “Extreme Weather” and that there will be a DC-AMS
chapter poster on display at AMS annual meeting in January in New Orleans. Steve would like member input and
suggestions regarding future meetings, and he welcomes contributions to the DC-AMS newsletter. He also urges
member to look at the official AMS statement on weather and forecasting, and to comment accordingly in the
newsletter or directly to AMS.

Next, Andrea Bleistein introduced Ken Graham, Chief of the Meteorological Services Division within the
NWS Office of Climate, Weather and Water Services. Ken has been with National Weather Service Headquarters
for about a year. He comes to NWS with a background in TV meteorology and brings plenty of energy and new
ideas. Ken took the platform discussing his early days doing TV weather out of college and his first experience
with the NWS. He and the news director at his station spotted a wall cloud outside their office, yet saw no warn-
ings issued by the NWS. Ken immediately called the local WFO and was received by a voice asking “Who’s this?”
and “What County?” The storm spawned an F2 tornado and Ken immediately demanded a meeting with the local
MIC to develop a better relationship with that office. Soon, he joined the NWS as an intern in New Orleans,
discovering that his TV personality did not fit the norm.

Ken believes that the National Weather Service cannot do everything, and must enlist the private sector to
help. For instance, the government is already pursuing mandatory distribution of weather warnings by cell phone
companies. NWS must begin to better incorporate sociology (how messages are interpreted by the public) and
faster turnover—the idea of building something to last five years is over, and is now more like five months. NWS
must accommodate society’s shifting needs (only one person is dedicated to the Internet at NWS Headquarters).
The Weather Service must also do a better job of building the weather enterprise, Ken says. As an example of what
the private sector can do with weather information, Ken showed a picture of an umbrella that lights up different
colors when there is a chance of rain or thunderstorms.

Ken believes that forecasting is becoming a commodity. Forecasters need to find the impact within the
forecast and communicate that to decision makers. Ken gives the example of two cities—Gary and Chestnut. He
showed the graph of total snowfall for each city; despite considerably higher snowfall in Gary, the cleanup costs,
time spent cleaning up, and number of school children stranded was much higher in Chestnut. The reason for this
difference was the fact that the snowstorm that hit Gary occurred on a weekend, whereas the Chestnut storm
occurred on the first day of the work week at rush hour. Ken uses this example to highlight the need to share
information better.
(continued next page)
(contined from October Meeting Minutes)

Ken gives several other examples of where NWS can do better, such as sponsoring spotter talks in the
neighborhoods that are most vulnerable to storm deaths, and better communication with county/parish emer-
gency management. NWS needs leadership with vision—the “if we build it, they will come” policy is not
working, and NWS must instead work to meet users’ needs. At the same time, NWS does not have the resources
to do everything.

Emergency managers want risk analysis broken down by which hazard poses the greatest threat. For
instance, Ken was once asked to provide guidance regarding evacuation from a flood: At 35 feet, the town
would have to evacuate cows; at just 37 feet, the town would have to evacuate 15,000 people. NWS must build
resources through a cyclic process that includes: a list of key stakeholders; assessment of requirements; focus
groups to affirm requirements, add/delete, and prioritize; linking with science and technology (make sure it
supports requirements); linking with budget process; and repeat. This includes faster responses to partner needs,
more on-site support, and perhaps a whole new breed of meteorologists (including more meso- and micro- scale).

Ken believes that future dissemination of forecasts should include more explicit statements of hazard
and impact elements, and the format by which this information is relayed will be important. Warnings in html,
for instance, allow different pieces of information to go different places. Forecasters need to increase their
situational awareness, with more TVs and monitors in WFOs. There should be more incorporation of the social
sciences, and more emphasis on building the private sector, which can adapt much faster than government.

Andrea thanked Ken for his talk and presented him with the new, upgraded DC-AMS mug. She then
concluded the October meeting of the DC-AMS, saying that she hopes to see members at the next meeting in
November.

Ken Graham Presentation (Insert: Andrea presenting DC-AMS Mug)

 DC-AMS Meeting Minutes, Nov 28, 2007
Featuring, Dr. Linwood Vincent, Office of Naval Research
Topic: Rouge Waves
by
Alan Cohn DC-AMS; Recording Secretary

The November 28, 2007 meeting of the DC-AMS was held at the offices of the American Institute of Architec-
ture. Steve Tracton began the meeting with an announcement of January 30th’s featured speaker, Mike Mogil, author
of the new book, Extreme Weather. Steve also noted that there is a good chance there’ll be a meeting the week of
January 8th (actually scheduled for Jan15) featuring winter weather expert, Paul Kocin. Other prospective guests
beyond January include Jack Hayes, director of the National Weather Service, Dave Atlas, the father of radar meteorol-
ogy, Allen Eustis, a former Washington TV broadcaster and DC-AMS member, and Rick Potts, from the Museum of
Natural History. Before introducing the night’s speaker, Steve requested contributions to the newsletter and volunteers
for the speakers bureau.

Next, Steve introduced Linwood Vincent, Head, Ocean, Atmosphere and Space Research Division, Office of
Naval Research (ONR) in Arlington Arlington, VA. Although Linwood is hailed as an expert in rogue waves, he
proclaimed that there are no true experts in the complicated subjects of analyzing, understanding and predicting ocean
waves. Linwood began his career in coastal dynamics, working for the Army and then the Navy. He believes that every
problem he faces at work is interesting. Rogue waves, the focus of much of his work, are essentially “big waves
relative to what you expect to be there.” That raises the question, what is our expectation given a certain set of
conditions? Linwood gave the example of an oil platform in the North Sea, experiencing 4 to 8 meter waves during a
storm. Suddenly, the platform was hit by a 26 meter wave causing extensive (“Draupner Wave”). Such observational
evidence of rogue waves is limited, however—when waves get too big, the instruments to record them often fail.

Waves can also be observed from above; for instance, one instrument uses a laser which shoots downward and
pings waves as they go by; the observed pattern field can be modeled mathematically. A number of reasons have been
proposed for rogue waves. Older theories of wave dynamics assumed that patterns were linear, the sea surface was
Gaussian, and the probability of waves could be found via a Rayleigh distribution - simply put, superposition a bunch
of small waves sometimes create a very large wave. The new theories assume nonlinearity, a non-Gaussian sea
surface, and probability defined via an Edgeworth-Rayleigh distribution (whatever that is).

Most ships are designed for particular wave conditions (e.g., coastal, i.e., “littoral” regions, and open ocean)
that are generally not adequate to endure the effects of being hit by a rogue wave. For such situations, models of the sea
surface can potentially help ships better predict large waves. One model is called SNOW, which stands for Simulation
of Nonlinear Ocean Wave fields. The SNOW model simulates the non-linear interactions between waves with different
spectral characteristics. interaction requires significant computing time so that it can model small waves. By compar-
ing the model to observations in a laboratory setting, scientists can try to determine why the model and the observations
differ.

SNOW simulations show that the area encompassing the rogue wave is narrow in space and time. The wave
emerges from the background, exists for a short time, and then disappears. The surrounding waves become smaller as
the rogue draws upon their energy, and then recover as the rogue disperses. Wave models are missing several elements:
There is no wind input, meaning the waves have no ability to grow from atmospheric forcing; they often do not include
ocean currents; and the effects of breaking waves are parameterized. While verification of the model works well in a
laboratory setting, it’s very difficult to check their performance for an open ocean setting. Scientists are working to
improve the models, conduct field studies for validation, increase ship- and space-based remote sensing, and simplify
the models for the purpose of prediction.
(continued next page)
(continued from November Meeting Minutes)

The goal is two levels of prediction: synoptic, incorporating weather prediction, and wave-to-wave,
observing individual waves and predicting how each one will evolve. The issue of air-sea interaction is very
important to the subject, as the atmosphere perturbs waves and vice versa. Individual wave prediction is
important in that one day ships might hope to predict each wave and avoid it as it approaches.

Linwood concluded with a summary of his opinions of the subject. He believes that rogue waves are
so-called because scientists used too simple a theory for modeling wave dynamics. Rogue waves occur more
often than we think, and their effects are as important for small vessels as they are for large ones. Whereas
large ships may be more economically important, more people die in small ships.

Linwood’s talk was followed by several questions from the audience. Finally, Andrea Bleistein
concluded the meeting, thanking Linwood for his presentation and Camden Walker for use of the conference
room, and encouraging members to pay their membership dues to DC-AMS Treasurer, Joe Bartosik.

Note: we hope to have Linwood’s full presentation posted on the DC-AMS web site in the near future.

Dr. Linwood Vincent describing the 26 meter (trough to ridge) Rouge Wave (insert added)
Capitol Christmas Tree Lighting Photos
December 5, 2007
Photos by Kevin Ambrose

The lighting ceremony for the Capitol Christmas Tree

Snow falls on the Capitol Ground

 NEWS, NOTES , ETC.

Word’s highest temperature recorded 85 years ago: According to WMO, it was just 85 years ago on 13 September
2007 that the Earth’s highest shade temperature at the surface was recorded in Al Azizia, Libyan Arab Jamahiriya,
about 55 km south-east of Tripoli . At 58°C (136.4°F), the record remains unbeaten. Recording temperatures in what
is now Lybya began in the Ottoman Empire in the mid 16th century.

Meteorologists Shape Fashion Trends: The New York Times (12/03/07) wants us to know that “Two consecutive
years of volatile weather — last November and this October were the warmest on record for the New York City area, a
retail Mecca — have proved disastrous for companies that rely on predictable temperatures to sell cold-weather
clothing like sweaters and coats.” So, the $200 billion apparel industry in the U. S. is adding a “weather forecaster” to
the typical array of employees such as fabric assistant, “visual merchandiser”, and presumably clothes dummies. The
Times adds, “The scientific debate over global warming may not be entirely settled, but in the American clothing
business, at least, it is over.” Add this to the list of consequences of global warming, including the woes of Artic Polar
Bears, more frequent and intense hurricanes (maybe) and the spread of Brain-Eating Killer Amoeba (no joking, see:
http://groovygreen.com/groove/?p=1925).

Question/Answer : (from: http://www.weatherwizkids.com/index.htm)

Q: What did one raindrop say to the other raindrop?
A: My plop is bigger than your plop.
Q: What did the thermometer say to the other thermometer?
A: You make my temperature rise.
Q: What’s the difference between a horse and the weather?
A: One is reined up and the other rains down.
Q: What’s the difference between a horse and the weather?
A: One is reined up and the other rains down.

What’s this?

Answer: Kelvin-Helmholtz
formation spotted from Monu-
ment, CO, Nov 27, 2007
http://epod.usra.edu/index.php3

And, what’s this?

Answer: Would you believe this too

shows Kelvin waves, this time what are
called “Kelvin ship waves”, V-shaped
wakes left by moving objects like ships,
or even ducks under appropriate
conditions. But there is no ship here,
but rather a wake left behind as airflow
sweeps around an obstacle (island)
(http://modis.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/
individual.php?db_date=2007-12-08

P.S. Have your own “NEWS, NOTES , ETC.”?: send them in, please!!! Steve
DC-AMS MUG: Large handle makes it easy to hold, 15 oz. size, dishwasher and
microwave Safe.

Want one (or more)? Orders now being taken – send request to:

dc.ams.chapter@gmail.com.

Price: $17/Mug.

Bulk order will be placed when order is greater than 5.

Delivery and payment info forthcoming.

(Inscription reads: “promoting development and dissemination of knowledge of the

atmosphere and related sciences and advancement of their applications” )