Progetti CCM 2011

Metodi per la valutazione integrata dell'impatto ambientale e sanitario

(VIIAS) dell'inquinamento atmosferico
OBIETTIVO SPECIFICO 5:
Valutare a livello locale limpatto ambientale delle
particelle ultrafini
Environmental impact assessment of ultrafine
particles. Rome case study.
Giorgio Cattani, Alessandro di Menno Di Bucchianico, Alessandra Gaeta
Dipartimento Stato dellAmbiente e Metrologia Ambientale
Servizio Monitoraggio degli Impatti sullatmosfera
mail: giorgio.cattani@isprambiente.it
web: http://www.isprambiente.it/site/it-IT/
ISPRA
Istituto Superiore per la Protezione
e la Ricerca Ambientale
Background
Research needs:
the burden due to chronic long-term effects is usually much larger
than that due to acute effects (Brook et al., 2010; Knzli et al.,
2010)
thus, studies on the long-term effects of UFP are necessary (Hoek
et al., 2009; World Health Organization, 2006).
No epidemiologic studies of long-term exposures to ambient UFPs
have been conducted (HEI, jenuary 2013)
Lack of spatially resolved exposure data
Ultrafine particles, particles number concentration and
total particles number concentration
Ultrafine particles: diameter less than 0,1 m
Indicator for UFP exposure: particle number concentration
(PNC) in the <10 100 nm range
In urban setting ultrafine particles accounted for more than
80% of the total particle number concentration and the
temporal correlation between ultrafine and total particle
number concentration was very good
Total PNC has been widely used as a more easily measured
indicator for ultrafine particles (e.g. Aalto et al, 2005; Belleudi et
al, 2010).
Land use regression model for ultrafine particles
Amsterdam (Hoeck et al, 2011)
Directly outside 50 homes. In each week seven 24 h average measurements
were made at one home and at a central urban background site in the city
center, where measurements were during the entire study period. The
average difference of the concentrations measured at the home outdoors
and the continuous measurement site was used to develop the land use
regression model. 67% variability explained
Girona province, Spain (Rivera et al, 2012)
UFP for 15 minutes on the sidewalk of 644 participants homes in 12 towns
of Girona province (Spain) (Girona town 167 sites) during 7 week (june-
july). Up to 72% variability explained
Period averages estimated using NOx continuous measurements at an
urban background urban city (Girona)
Vancouer, Canada (Abernethy et al, 2013)
UFP for 1h at 80 sites
Period averages estimated (2 week) using 4 fixed point continuous
measurements
Study aim
To explore the possibility to model the spatial variation of PNC
concentrations in the city of Rome with land use regression
model
Study design
measurements will be conducted at 31 monitoring sites from
April 2013 until March 2014
One week measurements per site repeated three times in
different season
Continuous total PNC measurements at one additional site, so
that the discontinuous site specific measurements can be
adjusted to the true long term average for the observation
period
Explorative use of alternative metrics to adjust the observed
mean
Monitoring devices
total PNC measurements using condensation particle counters
directly outside 30 homes: portable TSI CPC 3007
The CPC3007 counts particles from 10 nm and above
One fixed sites: TSI CPC3022a
The CPC3022a counts particles from 7 nm and above
Timing:
Time resolution: 1 minute
three sampling period during the day, lasting two hours each:
00:30 02:30; 08:30 10:30; 16:30 18:30
One week measurement campaign; each sites will be visited three
times.
Sampling probe: conductive silicon tube less than 3 meter long
NOx Annual averages in Rome (2011) estimated using 6/24
hours vs 23/24 hours averages
y = 1.0027x + 1.1723
R
2
= 0.9953
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
annual mean NO
X
- 23h/24h [g/m!]
a
n
n
u
a
l

m
e
a
n

N
O
X

-

6
h
/
2
4
h

[

g
/
m
!
]
Siting of sampling points
Sites spread over the city, within the Great Ring Junction (GRA)
Measurements at building faades
The ESCAPE (Eeftens et al, 2012) protocol have been followed
for macro and micro siting of sampling point for instance:
broadly distributed across the study area
selected to provide contrast in predictor variables (representative
of a range of traffic intensities and a range in urbanization)
that are representative for homes within the city (at least 10
meters from the roadside)
Unrestricted air flow around the sampler
Sampling points were placed at an height variable (2 30m
above the ground)
This issue will be taking into account during LUR development:
Using h above the ground as a model variable
Using measurement undertaken at different height in the same
place
3 road side sites (< 30 m from a
major road i.e. > 10,000
vehicles/day) in an high density
population context (HD)
1 road side sites in a low density
population context (LD)
7 traffic sites (30 100 m) from a
major road in HD
5 traffic sites in LD
4 residential sites (> 100 m from a
major road) in HD
10 residential sites (> 100 m from a
major road) in LD
Selected sites
Predictor variables
distance to nearest road
distance to major road (>10,000 vehicles per day)
traffic density in several buffers size
Combination of traffic and distance to road
Population density in several buffers size
physical characteristics (e.g., elevation, latitude, longitude and
distance to coast)
Land use (urban green, high density residential land )
Model development
Regression model will be developed using a supervised
forward stepwise procedure
Univariate regression analyses will be conducted for all
possible predictor variables
The model with the highest adjusted explained variance (R
2
)
(and lowest RMSE) will be regarded as the start model
Variables co-varying (r >0,6) with the first one will be removed
to this start model the remaining variables will be added
separately if the effect on the adjusted R
2
-value is greater than
1%, and the coefficient is conform the pre-specified direction,
and the direction of the effect for predictors already included in
the model do not change
Standard diagnostic tests for ordinary least squares regression
will be applied, such as checks on the normality of residuals,
heteroscedasticity and influential observations
Scheduling
Measurements:
First run: 6 April 2013 20 July 2013
Second run: 16 September 2 December 2014
Third run: 7 jenuary 25 march 2014
Final model development:
By the end of October 2014
Total PNC time series. Example of co-located
measurements
Day 2
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#
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Separator
Via Ermoli - Thursday 09/19/13
Via Staz. di Tor Sapienza - Thursday 09/19/13
Via Tarquinio Prisco - Thursday 09/19/13
Via Tarquinio Prisco Ip - Thursday 09/19/13
Total PNC time series at 4 m above the ground (green
line) and at 25 m from the ground (brown line). Traffic
oriented site, in an high density population setting.
Thursday, 9/19/2013
Day 2
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#
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Via Tarquinio Prisco - Thursday 09/19/13
Via Tarquinio Prisco Ip - Thursday 09/19/13
Day 5
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Via Tarquinio Prisco - Sunday 09/22/13
Via Tarquinio Prisco Ip - Sunday 09/22/13
Total PNC time series at 4 m above the ground (green
line) and at 25 m above the ground (brown line). Traffic
oriented site, in an high density population setting.
Sunday, 9/22/2013
Total PNC daily average at a traffic oriented site,
in an high density population setting.
Brown box: 4 m above the ground
Yellow box: 25 m above the ground.
Daily average
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
18/09/2013 19/09/2013 20/09/2013 21/09/2013 22/09/2013 23/09/2013 24/09/2013
Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday
#
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m
3
Via T. Prisco 7nt floor
Via T. Prisco 1st floor
First campaign: box plot of hourly data
a = road side, in HD
b = traffic in HD
c = traffic in LD
d = residential in HD
e = residential in LD
Total PNC (part/cm
3
) adjusted mean (April July)
!"#$%& ()* +),* #--.$-/)$0
!"#$%& ()* +),* #--.$-/)$0
Thanks are due to Marco Inglessis (ISS) for providing
continuous measurements at the fixed site
and to the 30 study participants for their valuable
contribution during the measurements campaign.
They hosted and provided daily care to the instrument
for free, making possible this study