8.2 A Review of Trading Associated with the Accumulation of Shares by the M&G Group (October, November and December 2010)
DISCLAIMER: All Information presented as shareholder research has been sourced from broker trading records and Cudeco registry records. While the author considers the data to be accurate and the summaries presented as also being an accurate reflection of trading, no guarantees are given as to the reliability of data or any conclusions put forward. Shareholders and investors are encouraged to do their own Due Diligence and to make up their own minds in regard to any trends present in the trading data. 2
REFERENCE LINKS TO PUBLISHED RESEARCH
Chapter 1: Introduction 1.1 Why Blog? 1.2 The Current Situation 1.3 Blog Content Chapter 2: An Overview of Trends Associated With 15 Months of Trading 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Trading Trends Over a 15 Month Period Chapter 3: Trading Trends Leading up to Aug 18, 2010 3.1 Trading Leading Up to the Aug 18 Resource Upgrade 3.2 An Analysis of Price Under-Performance During Jan-Feb 2010 3.3 Market Manipulation Issues, 7.5 Months of Auction Investigations and Downtick Analysis 3.4 A Review of June/July 2006 JORC Issues 3.5 Market Reactions to Significant Announcements 2010 3.6 The 2010 Resource Estimate and Issues Related to JORC Code Compliance Chapter 4: Trading that Occurred Following the Aug 18, 2010 Resource Upgrade 4.1 Historic Trends and Aug 18, 2010 Trading Data Chapter 5: Trading Updates 5.1 Short Position Update - Nov 1, 2011 5.2 Registry Update as at Nov 3, 2011 5.3 Market Update Nov 14 5.4 Summary of Issues Plus Trading Anomalies During November 2011 and in a Broader Context Chapter 6: Registry Anomalies 6.1 An Overview of Monthly Registry Anomalies Spanning 2 Years of Trading 6.2 Increased Registry Activity Versus ASX Buying and Selling 6.3 Trading Featuring Substantially Increased Registry Activity Over ASX Activity - Part 2 6.4 Trading Featuring Substantially Increased ASX Activity Over Registry Activity. 6.5 The Impact of Institutions on the CuDeco Register Chapter 7: Research Into Other ASX Companies 7.1 Research Findings in Relation to CDU, LYC, BBG and EGP 7.2 Further Research Into ASX 200 Companies - Linc Energy (LNC) 7.3 ASX 200 Company Research Billabong Broker Data (BBG) 7.4 ASX 200 Company Research Lynas Broker Data (LYC) Chapter 8: Official Complaints to ASIC Concerning Trading in CuDeco 8.1 ASIC Complaint 2013-1 8.2 ASIC Complaint 2013-2
8.1 ASIC Complaint 2013-1
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FOREWORD
The current ASIC complaint refers to the period when the M&G Group accumulated CuDeco shares during late 2010. It brings to attention further manipulative trading issues on the ASX that have been sanctioned by regulatory authorities. Certainly, the trading behaviours identified in all research published to date on the shareholder blog, www.scribd/com/cudeco_research, are diametrically opposed to the guidelines provided by the ASX (i.e., back when it was a self-regulated organization), and the guidelines given by the High Court in its recent judgement <Refer Pg 8, ASIC Complaint 2013-1>. The manipulative behaviours identified are all based on anomalous trends drawn from empirical data that cannot be adequately explained in terms other than share price manipulation. A distinction needs to be made between share price manipulation, which is illegal, and an unfair market, which is a fact of life for retail investors. Fairness issues are widely acknowledged. There is no question that the ASX provides an un-level playing field with sophisticated investors granted privileges that advantage them in the market over all other investors. The privileges include streamlined access to ASX computers which provides superior execution speeds for trades and an ability to view and react to all orders instantly as they arrive on the ASXs electronic trading platform, thereby pre-empting impending trades in the queue awaiting execution. The privileges also apply to the use of trading algorithms that are able to institute large numbers of small trades, but by their very design deliver strategic advantages over all other investors. Retail investors, who have to deal with higher transaction costs particularly for small trades as well as markedly inferior access speeds regarding order execution, simply cannot compete. However what large numbers of small private investors and mum-and-dad retail investors are generally not aware of, and what shareholder research has brought to attention, is the widespread manipulative activity taking place that is both sanctioned and generally ignored or dismissed by regulatory authorities. What has emerged through research is that the trading issues raised concerning CuDeco apply equally to other stocks as well, and that CuDeco trading data has simply provided a window into systemic problems that require urgent attention. The crucial point is that markets are not only unfair, but manipulative activity is sanctioned that is destroying large amounts of wealth of Australian citizens and indeed the Australian economy. The wealth destruction obviously impacts small retail investors who are unable to compete in the market, but it has also decimated compulsory superannuation holdings of Australian workers in the years following the Global Financial Crisis. The fund management industry is heavily associated with all of the share market manipulation issues outlined by research. The trading issues brought to attention from late 2010 through to 2013 highlight the mechanisms whereby large amounts of superannuation capital are able to be successfully drained from the system. In fact the entire dysfunctional ASX system appears to heavily rely upon a regulator that generally ignores complaints and acquiesces to the demands of vested interests while attempting to normalize dubious trading activities. The acceptance by ASIC of dark pools, HFT trading and highly manipulative short selling practices, despite the destruction of wealth that accompany them, is clearly unacceptable and each day that passes with nothing done about such systemic problems, is another day when large amounts of wealth are stripped from unsuspecting investors. 4
Unfairness is one thing, but interminably corrupted markets that Australian citizens are forced to engage in through compulsory superannuation, is quite another. Importantly, Government regulators are established to ensure markets are not unfair or corrupt and to protect its citizens from these practices. This is not happening with regard to the ASX. Already the response to poor superannuation returns following the GFC has been for the previous Labor Government to be persuaded to legislate for increased contributions. Under current arrangements, it represents substantially more easily exploited capital for the industry to thrive on, with dubious benefits for contributors. The funds management industry is actually planning to harvest a cash-engorged future with funds under management expected to increase from around $1.3 trillion currently, to around $6 trillion by the year 2030 <CLICK: Reference Link>. Importantly the profit generation that accompanies the management of superannuation holdings such as the $78 billion stripped from the market through short selling in the 18 months between August 2010 and January 2012 <CLICK: Reference Link> has to come from somewhere. In this instance it is likely to be associated with the lending of clients pooled shares (usually super funds, pension funds, mutual funds etc.) where the value of holdings has been decimated in support of windfall gains for those engaged in short selling led by institutions and hedge funds. Then there are the account fees and commissions earned through the over- trading of accounts under management. It is no surprise that superannuation returns have been severely impacted irrespective of the difficult economic environment ushered in by events surrounding the GFC. The actions of a fund management industry in making other peoples shares available to privileged insiders to profit from difficult trading conditions is not only highly questionable, it is deplorable, as the investing public has been hoodwinked in the process. Essentially, the market is far removed from what it is held up to be. ASIC has been made aware of trading anomalies in relation to CuDeco since at least December 2010, and has been advised of continuing problems on several other occasions by several CuDeco shareholders. The ASIC Complaint referenced as 2013-1 was lodged on August 16, 2013 <CLICK: Reference Link> and to date hasnt had a response despite many of the issues already being referred to them by other shareholders from information published on the research blog. It comes as no surprise, as generally, complaints are met by long drawn-out silences and are eventually followed by decisions advising that the regulator doesnt have a problem with what has been referred to them. A case in point was the response to recent concerns by a CuDeco shareholder about peculiar small trades flooding the market. The response in part is summarized below. ASICs Surveillance team is aware of the above allegations and has already conducted extensive enquiries and research into the trading of CuDeco shares. It is important to note that the small value transactions to which you refer in your letter, are largely the result with algorithmic trading which often break down larger orders to minimise market impact by trading a large number of small orders throughout the day. While the transactions can appear unusual when looked at in isolation, they are not necessarily indicative of market manipulation.
In sanitizing small trades, the response is seen to ignore the manipulative function of those small trades, many of which can be small crossings continuously put through the market to force Downticks in price. Such activity regarding CuDeco has been extremely manipulative. The advice also doesnt address the fact that although the small trades might represent large volumes broken into small parcels, a lot of the trading represents Wash Trades with no impact on the register, and with entities trading back and forth between each other in a cartel-like approach to trading. Nor does it address the artificial pricing structures introduced by repetitive small trades and the non-genuine buying and selling they often represent.
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Importantly, there are several additional trading issues that are referred to by research that are either ignored or downplayed by regulatory authorities. Additional issues with wide ranging ramifications for all stocks trading on the ASX include: dark pool trades about which very little is known despite frequent concerns expressed by authorities; large volumes of off-market transactions that have taken place in critical months with CuDeco, which may reflect the re-adjustment of holdings between trading partners after manipulative trades on the ASX; manipulative short selling practices which are ever present and which can be implemented through a majority of brokers on any trading day; these contribute to an extremely artificial market; the covering of open short exposures through off-market adjustments which completely avoid price discovery. The practice represents a flagrant contradiction to official claims of fair markets; the flooding of markets with buying and selling across a large range of brokers but where the trades effectively relate back to the same interests, or interests who are affiliated with their trading. Such trading is highly manipulative as it involves non-genuine Wash Trades or trades that may not qualify as Wash Trades but nevertheless do not result in beneficial changes to ownership. It again raises concerns of cartel-like control over trading which is meant to be outlawed by both ASIC and the ACCC; broker collusion/ cartel activity with non-genuine trades back and forth to each other and with a rotation of roles as prominent sellers and prominent buyers on almost a daily basis; absolute control over auction prices enforced by a small groups of institutional brokers who again have rotated roles as prominent brokers on a daily basis; institutional algorithms being able to choose who they wish to trade with, and if necessary, avoiding retail orders. The front running of orders and the instantaneous withdrawal of liquidity in response to the arrival of genuine orders is a major issue, but so too is the corporate targeting of companies such as CuDeco by trades over longer periods of time designed to constrain prices and to force prices lower; the deliberate targeting of lower prices with small parcels of shares sold to force Downtick transactions where the trades are between brokers who are affiliated in their trading and where many of the Downticks have involved small parcels of shares put through as crossings.; the deliberate selling down of positive announcements serving to destroy sentiment for the stock; and insider trading issues regarding a number of ASX companies, specifically evident in regard to CuDeco during the period M&G accumulated shares during late 2010. The extremely bleak picture of what takes place on the ASX in all stocks, not just CuDeco, is made even worse by the fact that the majority of trades are completely opaque to the market and a great many of them are non-genuine in makeup. Sadly, it is a serious indictment of officials who claim our markets are fair and transparent, and also of those responsible for administering and regulating the markets daily operations that they cannot quickly identify entities associated with dubious trading activity and make them responsible for any manipulative impact their trading might have on the market.
The bottom line associated with all of the above is that the Australian public need to be properly informed about systemic manipulation issues not addressed under current arrangements. They need to be able to make independent decisions about their investments and not be forced into a deeply compromised system by Government decree such as with compulsory superannuation. Such forewarning is required at least until such time as a major overhaul of the system can be implemented that can guarantee fair and transparent markets, and can ensure an effective and responsive regulatory regime is in place. 6
ASIC COMPLAINT 8.2 SUMMARY TRADING ISSUES ACCOMPANYING M&G BUYING DURING 2010 ASIC Complaint 8.2 relates to the trading of CuDeco shares that took place during late October and through November and December 2010 when the M&G Group extended their substantial shareholding in the Company. The on-market buying which amounted to 10.25 million shares between October 29 and December 14, 2010, followed a 10 million share placement secured from CuDeco when the Company was under pressure following a resource upgrade released on August 18, 2010. The resource statement was surrounded by confusion because reported JORC compliant resources didnt seem to reflect the likely realities of mining, especially given that large amounts of high grade copper mineralisation, previously reported by the Company in numerous Market Releases, did not appear to be adequately represented in resource estimates. The confusion about the resource was seized upon by sophisticated investors who destabilized the company by taking prices much lower. Three observations stand out in relation to events surrounding the August 18 announcement. The share price following the resource upgrade did not fairly reflect the economic attributes of the measured and indicated resource as announced, irrespective of the large amounts of high grade copper seemingly not included in estimates. The placement secured by M&G was granted in an attempt to stabilize the Company and wouldnt have occurred if it wasnt for the dramatic share price slump. Trading and registry data demonstrate that trading behaviours used to destabilize the Company by taking prices substantially lower were highly manipulative. Importantly, the dubious trading behaviours used to collapse the share price in August 2010 were again evident in subsequent trading as M&G increased their stake through on-market buying. However when trading data is assessed in light of the guidelines provided by a recent High Court decision regarding share price manipulation, entities responsible for aberrant trading trends appear to have seriously compromised the market. Research has shown that artificial pricing levels and non-genuine buying and selling were clearly the dominant features of the trading that took place during late 2010 and early 2011. Events surrounding the M&G buying campaign that can only be explained satisfactorily in terms of share price manipulation include: Large volumes of non-genuine trading churn were supplied to the market. Trading churn was a feature of trading immediately following the August 18, 2010 announcement and continued unabated until after the M&G accumulation was completed on December 14, 2010. The trend is reflected by monthly trading volumes and periods where large amounts of trading didnt impact the register. In November when the bulk of M&G buying took place, around 39% of broker trading appeared to go missing as it didnt have an impact on the register. <Refer Complaint 1 Pg. 39> Period Monthly Volumes Comment Jan-July Average - 2010 12,449,839 Months preceding the resource upgrade August 93,327,086 Trading associated with the resource up-grade September 24,052,817 Months following the resource up-grade October 32,055,511 November 42,533,272 The majority of M&G buying took place in November December 15,595,948 Trading volumes immediately fell once the M&G buying was completed (There were just 4 days of M&G buying during early December) January - 2011 7,494,594 February - 2011 7,079,896
Large volumes of Wash Trades occurred during these 2 months 7
Trading was compromised well before M&G commenced their buying and continued to be compromised as accumulation took place. Research also suggests that following the completion of M&G buying, manipulative trading behaviours then focussed on capping share prices. Non-genuine strategic selling was supplied to the market that appears to have targeted lower prices, not maximum returns for clients. Brokers alternated roles almost on a daily basis in terms of being prominent selling brokers especially in regard to Downtick transactions. It suggests both collusion between brokers and high levels of co-ordination. (Refer to Charts on Pg. 7) Such trading contradicts the clarifications provided by the High Court that plainly stated genuine sellers are expected to target the highest prices possible for their shares. Instead, relatively small amounts of selling resulted in large numbers of downward movements in price. Broker collusion and/or entities using multiple brokers to facilitate unfair trading objectives was a prominent feature of trading. Collusion is highlighted by the trading volumes associated with M&G accumulation. M&G bought shares in the period October 29 to December 14 with buying taking place on 19 of the days throughout the period, and the remaining 14 days experiencing no M&G involvement. Critically, a 227% increase in average daily trading volumes accompanied the buying for M&G. M&G ABSENT FROM THE MARKET M&G ACTIVE IN THE MARKET 14 Day Period Volumes Traded M&G Buying 19 Period Day Volumes Traded M&G Buying Totals 14,616,565 0
Clearly, a motivated buyer standing independently in the market to accumulate just over 500,000 shares per day on average, should not have resulted in volumes spiralling multiples higher. The co-operation of other brokers resulted in suppling additional selling and buying to assist in managing the market in support of accumulation by M&G. Such activity suggests both collusion and insider trading activity. It would also have resulted in the setting and maintenance of artificial pricing levels, a situation that was grossly unfair to all other investors, including those who sold their shares because of the confusing market signals generated (i.e., price rises were accompanied by a wall of selling that was non-genuine). Further Collusion issues The issue of collusion by brokers and the likelihood of a rigged or artificial market, as M&G carried out their accumulation program, are further supported by these relationships and events: Multiple brokers were directly involved in buying shares for M&G. They were Morgan Stanley, Citigroup Global and JP Morgan. While active on some days specifically for M&G, there is the question of who were they trading for on other days if not in support of the accumulating entity? Formal relationships existed between brokers who were substantially involved in trading and actively supporting M&G. They include Citigroup Global (CITI), Morgan Stanley (MSDW) and Smith Barney (SBAR) whose affiliations were detailed in Research Paper 6.5 <CLICK: Reference Link Pg 34>. Smith Barneys trading profile was reduced somewhat compared to MSDW and CITI during the period M&G accumulated shares, however they did provide high levels of trading churn and helped to process the 10 million share placement procured by M&G in October. The placement shares flowed through the SBAR broker nominee account on their way to custodial ownership with HSBC Nominees and JP Morgan Nominees.
Multiple brokers informally assisted M&G accumulation by providing high volumes of non- genuine trading churn to the market. Included in this group were COMM, UBS, DMG, BBY, MACQ and others.
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Brokers traded so as to deliberately target lower prices as suggested by persistently anomalous trends regarding Downtick statistics. The overwhelming trend has been for brokers with relatively small selling involvements being responsible for a majority of DTs, and brokers with relatively small buying involvements being the purchasers of large numbers of DT transactions. Trading algorithms facilitated shared trading objectives by directing trades between designated sellers and preferred buyers, representing non-genuine trading that didnt result in changes to beneficial ownership of shares. To work effectively such algorithms require multiple brokers running similar programs. Collusion issues stem from high frequency order execution that can ensure institutional orders execute collusively ahead of retail orders. Absolute control over all auctions pricing by a small subset of brokers also suggests that brokers were acting collusively or that a cartel of interests was dictating terms to the rest of the market. UBS Securities being involved in the settlement of trades far in excess of its own buying and selling demonstrates an overt involvement with other brokers, and also suggests that a good deal of its own trading was likely to be strategic and in support of shared trading objectives. UBS engaged in large numbers of Downtick crossings that also provided constant downward pressures to prices, yet the crossings were for only tiny parcels of shares. o During November 2010, UBS Securities was responsible for 24 % of all Downtick transactions but held a selling market share of of just 7.3%. Furthermore, almost half (i.e., 47.6%) of UBS DT transactions were crossings and 92% of those crossing were for parcels of shares well under 400 shares in size (i.e., 92% of DT all crossings represented small transactions averaging just 124 shares). The trading behaviour strongly reflects attempts to provide downward pressure to prices rather than genuine exchanges of shares between clients. o Over four months of trading (October, November, December 2010 and January 2011) UBS were responsible for 24.5% of all Downticks but held a selling market share of 8.4% o UBS is also seen to be active in supporting Downticks by being the buyer of 20.3% of all Downtick transactions over the four-month period, with just over half of them being crossings. Anomalous Trading Data The trading statistics by leading brokers over the four- month period are summarized in the table. They are listed in order of selling volumes. SELLING STATISTICS BUYING STATISTICS Broker Volume % Sells DT % Volume % Buys DT % NET COMM 18,678,502 19.1% 12.4% 16,602,356 17.0% 14.0% -2,076,146 DMG 7,998,929 8.2% 17.0% 7,631,583 7.8% 4.8% -367,346 ETRD 7,448,115 7.6% 4.9% 6,374,547 6.5% 3.9% -1,073,568 UBS 8,157,807 8.4% 24.5% 5,155,406 5.3% 20.3% -3,002,401 MSDW 1,660,456 1.7% 2.4% 10,133,756 10.4% 10.1% 8,473,300 CITI 4,996,953 5.1% 3.3% 5,875,168 6.0% 12.0% 878,215 AIEX 6,310,349 6.5% 4.1% 5,261,713 5.4% 4.4% -1,048,636 SBAR 5,661,204 5.8% 2.7% 5,770,389 5.9% 2.0% 109,185 BBY 3,928,033 4.0% 2.0% 3,433,923 3.5% 2.8% -494,110 MACQ 3,314,718 3.4% 2.3% 2,527,282 2.6% 3.5% -787,436 SOSL 2,736,864 2.8% 1.4% 2,750,292 2.8% 1.6% 13,428 GS 2,376,978 2.4% 2.3% 2,403,768 2.5% 2.1% 26,790 HUB24 2,766,426 2.8% 0.5% 2,649,415 2.7% 1.1% -117,011 MERL 1,969,193 2.0% 6.2% 2,161,371 2.2% 2.7% 192,178 INST 2,193,823 2.2% 1.6% 1,949,553 2.0% 2.8% -244,270 CSUI 1,771,482 1.8% 2.7% 1,981,372 2.0% 3.5% 209,890 MACP 2,029,476 2.1% 1.2% 1,515,814 1.6% 1.1% -513,662 M&G 9
o Of the 97.7 million shares traded, around 30 million buys and sells didnt make it to the register, representing either illegal Wash Trades or dubious back and forth trades that were netted out. During November when the majority of M&G accumulation took place, missing trades represented 39% of all broker activity, providing a very strong pointer to aberrant trading activity. o Commonwealth Securities played a pivotal role in trading with the register showing 1.36 million shares being net sold by retailers. However COMM broker trading showed net selling of 2.08 million shares. Retail activity represented around 43% of all COMM buying & selling over the four-month period, revealing COMM trading to be heavily influenced by sophisticated investors or institutions. Around 57% of all trades represented non-retail trades that were camouflaged through the settlement process. It represents a large volume of trading that requires proper investigation given the highly dubious trading data accompanying the M&G accumulation. o Apart from UBS Downtick (DT) selling, the DT selling by DMG is also anomalous compared to its selling profile (i.e., 17.0% cf. 8.2%). So too is the DT buying by CITI compared to its buying profile (i.e., 12.0% cf. 6.0%). The activities of these brokers are extremely contradictory to the clarifications about trading recently spelt out by the High Court.
M&G COMMENT Broker collusion issues and/or the spreading of buying and selling orders by entities across a wide network of brokers, have critical implications for share price manipulation. If retail investors were to continuously buy and sell back and forth to themselves, either using the same broker and two different accounts or even using two different brokers, the activity would be correctly flagged as non-genuine and instrumental in setting a false or artificial market. By comparison, sophisticated investors and institutions can do precisely the same thing by involving multiple brokers, and by dispensing large numbers of tiny buy and sell orders via trading algorithms with an ability to choose who they wish to engage with; yet such trading is able to be regarded as legitimate. The situation is akin to having multiple dummy bids in a property auction, which is clearly unacceptable. The advent of technology without proper regard to consequences, combined with the concessions granted to sophisticated investors, again without proper regard for the consequences, has completely sabotaged all notions of fair trading. It has led to an ability to manage prices by creating non-genuine/ artificial trading environments involving large volumes of back-and-forth buying and selling between the same interests or interests who are affiliated with their trading. Large numbers of trades do not impact the register because they cancel out - as revealed for example during August 2010 following a resource upgrade, and during the period M&G accumulated shares. Trading churn back-and-forth between the same entities also means that profits and losses essentially cancel out as it is a zero-sum game. It suggests that artificial trading activity is able to forgo profits when the priority might be control over pricing levels. However trading that attempts to control share prices by setting and maintaining artificial prices is illegal, and the responsibility for dealing with the situation rests solely with the regulator. It needs to 10
Anomalous Downtick Data A comparison of the numbers of Downticks recorded by brokers as a result of their sell transactions, against their selling volumes in the market generally, can be used to pinpoint manipulative trading activity. It is reasonably expected, for example, that if a broker was responsible for 10% of all selling put through the market, then the number of Downticks associated with that selling should also approximate 10%. Extremes either side are not only viewed as anomalous but they are most likely manipulative and a reflection of dubious trading agendas rather than genuine selling.
Brokers who consistently record high levels of Downticks but only have small selling profiles in the market appear motivated by forcing prices lower, rather than genuinely attempting to achieve the best prices for their clients. Despite reduced selling profiles as measured by the volume of selling, large numbers of Downticks are usually achieved by brokers using large numbers of small transactions, including broker crossings, that force price reductions.
Aberrant trading characteristics are exemplified by UBS Securities with the following charts comparing their DT involvements against their selling market shares for the months October 2010 through January 2011. The charts show recurring monthly anomalies where small volumes of selling have resulted in disprortionately high volumes of Downticks.
UBS Securities clearly doesnt appear to be motivated by maximizing returns for their clients and their trading requires a thorugh examination. UBS Securities however is not the only broker exhibiting anomalous Downtick trends and a complete review of all such trading is urgently required as it is a trend that is prevalent across all ASX stocks, not just CuDeco. UBS - Downticks Versus Selling - October 2010 The chart draws attentions to days where trading has been contrary to the directions set out by High Court that referred to genuine sellers as seeking to achieve the highest possible prices for their shares. Selling on October 5, 8, 11, 12, 18, 19, 25, 26 and 29 clearly represents small volumes of selling that looks to have aggressively targeted lower prices. The table lists the proportion of transactions fewer than 400 shares each day together with the average parcel size for such small trades.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Oct 1 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct 18 Oct 19 Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct 27 Oct 28 Oct 29 High Levels of Downticks Selling at a level much lower than the level of DTs generated.
On Oct 18, Downtick trades had parcel sizes between 8 and 16 shares 11
UBS - Downticks Versus Selling - November 2010
UBS - Downticks Versus Selling - December 2010
UBS - Downticks Versus Selling - January 2011
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Nov 1 Nov 2 Nov 3 Nov 4 Nov 5 Nov 8 Nov 9 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov 19 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov 24 Nov 25 Nov 26 Nov 29 Nov 30 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Dec 1 Dec 2 Dec 3 Dec 7 Dec 8 Dec 9 Dec 10 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 20 Dec 21 Dec 22 Dec 24 Dec 29 Dec 30 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 7 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 14 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 25 Jan 27 Jan 28 Jan 31
% of DTs as Sellers
% of All Selling
Days when UBS anomalism wasn't prominent saw other brokers such as DMG, MERL, GS and INST, or combinations thereof, take their place.
% of DTs as Sellers
% of All Selling
Trading data shows a consistent trend by UBS across all trading whereby reduced selling profiles have still resulted in a lot of downward pressure on prices.
The pressure has been aided by large numbers of small crossings that have forced DTs.
% of DTs as Sellers
% of All Selling
The persistent trend across all trading is for downward pressure to the share price being applied by a group of brokers, led by UBS Securities, where in each case large numbers of DTs have been generated from relatively minor selling volumes. It suggests a targeting of lower prices and the behaviours appear highly manipulative, as the selling is non- genuine and is not attempting to receive the best returns for clients. The fact that prominence regarding DT sales is consistently shared around from broker to broker also suggests high levels of co-ordination and collusion by brokers. SUMMARY Similar anomalies are in evidence regarding the brokers who have been the prominent buyers of Upticks. Brokers being able to achieve large numbers of opportunistic DT purchases with only relatively small amounts of buying, again suggests collusion and manipulative trading. The collusion appears to be managed by trading algorithms that are capable of matching designated sellers with designated buyers through preferential high frequency interactions.
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OVERVIEW The research approach has been to assess all aspects of trading prior to the M&G buying, during the period M&G accumulated shares and after the M&G buying ceased. Dubious trading behaviours are clearly evident in all trading taking place with an initial focus on controlling the market in preparation for the M&G buying campaign, and then on constraining prices once M&G accumulation began and after it was completed. All inferences regarding trading are strongly supported by trading and registry data. The research findings draw attention to a number of brokers whose trading requires proper investigation and whose client accounts also require close scrutiny. However, the trading by brokers, irrespective of who their clients were, makes them fully responsible for any share price manipulation issues. Importantly, the dubious trading behaviours identified by research during late 2010 are also evident in trading during 2011, 2012 and in trading throughout 2013, particularly throughout the period June, July, and August 2013 when M&G disposed of their substantial holding. Persistently anomalous trading trends illustrate that the market has been allowed to operate for long periods with highly dubious trading behaviours permitted to hold sway. During recent months half a billion dollars has been unfairly removed from CuDecos market capitalization while the same trading behaviours have again controlled pricing levels. It represents an intolerable situation that requires an urgent review by the regulator, who since December 2010 has been unable to acknowledge that there is even a problem despite large volumes of data signalling acute trading issues. It remains to be seen if the recent clarification by the seven High Court judges makes any difference. Certainly widespread trading anomalies have led to undervalued pricing levels for CuDeco shares that do not fairly reflect the Companys fundamentals; whatever the company is able to achieve operationally and announce to the market, is all but irrelevant as far as the share price is concerned. Yet the reasons for the discrepancies are abundantly evident in trading data but still nothing is done. The situation is hugely destructive to both shareholder wealth and market integrity and can no longer be tolerated.
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CONTENTS
Section 1 ..... Pg. 14 8.2.1 BACKGROUND INFORMATION CONCERNING CuDECO TRADING Section 2 ........ Pg. 16 8.2.2 CuDECO TRADING PRIOR TO M&G ACCUMULATION OCT 1 to OCT 28, 2010 Section 3 Pg. 27 8.2.3 CuDECO TRADING ASSOCIATED WITH ACCUMULATION BY M&G OCT 29, NOV & DEC 2010 Section 4 Pg. 33 8.2.4 CuDECO TRADING DATA COINCIDING WITH M&G BEING ABSENT FROM THE MARKET Section 5 Pg. 37 8.2.5 DECEMBER TRADING DATA AFTER THE M&G GROUP HAD COMPLETED THEIR BUYING. Section 6 Pg. 41 8.2.6 CuDECO TRADING DATA FOR JANUARY Section 7 Pg. 46 8.2.7 AUCTION TRENDS DURING NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, 2010 and JANUARY 2011
Section 8 Pg. 55 8.2.8 UPTICK TRENDS Section 9 Pg. 59 8.2.9 AN OVERVIEW OF 4 MONTHS OF TRADING IN CuDECO Oct 2010 to Jan 2011
APPENDIX 1: CuDECO BROKER TRADING DATA CORRESPONDING TO M&G BUYING Pg. 77 APPENDIX 2: RETAIL BROKER MONTHLY TRADING STATISTICS FOR CuDECO 2010 Pg. 87
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Section 8.2.1 BACKGROUND INFORMATION CONCERNING CuDECO TRADING The M&G Group secured a 10 million share placement from CuDeco in September 2010. The placement followed a resource upgrade announced on August 18, 2010 that was met by high levels of confusion and a sharp market reaction. The share price lost 48.8% of its value on the day of the announcement, and continued selling saw a share price low of $1.69 three days later. The low represented a fall of 64.7% from the levels that stood before the announcement. Extensive media reporting derided the Companys resource statement suggesting that it had under- delivered on promises and that shareholders were disappointed and selling out. The reality of the situation was more associated with: The difficulties in accurately assessing high grade copper ore and in having estimates comply with the ASX JORC code reporting standards. The situation led to massive levels of confusion that to this day remain unresolved despite the Company subsequently upgrading the resource and clarifying grades with bulk mining trials, and Trading activity by sophisticated investors that involved large volumes of shares traded back and forth to themselves that triggered the margin limits of retail investors who were either forced to sell or sold in panic. Importantly, institutions held onto their CuDeco shares despite the large volumes traded back and forth amongst themselves. Trading and registry data suggests that the response to the announcement was a carefully orchestrated sting operation by sophisticated investors, much to the detriment of retail investors. Issues concerning the JORC code and the difficulties in accurately assessing the complex Rocklands resource have been detailed in Research Paper 3.6 <Click: Reference Link> Critically, the M&G Group became a subtantial shareholder after doing extensive Due Diligence based on the same information that was the catalyst for a share price crash on August 18. M&G then proceeded to increase their stake through on-market buying during November and early December, taking prices back up to $4.64. Their solid buying further highlights the irrational market response on August 18. Their strong accumulation in CDU shares also draws attention to trading behaviours that were likely to have resulted in an artifical market for much of August and September 2010. The current complaint examines trading that occurred while accumulation was taking place by M&G and compares trading patterns before their buying commenced and after it ceased. Trends that strongly suggest an artificial market in CuDeco securities are evident throughout all periods. Share price manipulation looks to have been responsible for capping prices both before and after accumulation by M&G, and also looks to have facilitated the accumulation as well. Concerns regarding share market manipulation were addressed in ASIC Complaint 8.1 in terms of historic advice released by the ASX, together with the results of a recent unanimous High Court decision where seven judges declared it illegal to attempt to create artificial prices. The High Court decision has particular relevance in regard to trading in CuDeco over at least the last 3.5 years. Several trading behaviours that have been identified and documented by research have resulted in an artificial market over long periods of time. The creation and maintenance of an artificial market has been very much to the detriment of the Company and its non-institutional shareholders. Essentially it is 15
the trading by sophisticated investors, whose activities are camouflaged within institutional holdings, who have been engaging in trading activity referred to as illegal by the High Court. The High Court was unequivocal in stating that: The forces of genuine supply and demand are those which are created in a market by buyers whose purpose is to acquire at the lowest available price and sellers whose purpose is to sell at the highest realisable price. <Refer Appendix 1, ASIC Complaint 8.1 Pg. 131>
The advice provides strong directions as to how trading should be assessed, a point noted by legal experts who were quoted as saying: The unanimous ruling on the definition of maintaining an artificial price gives the Australian Securities and Investments Commission a powerful new weapon to use against people who trade shares to deliberately influence trading on the Australian Securities Exchange Many share price manipulation issues, all identifiable with maintaining artificial pricing levels and unfairly influencing trading, are present in trading throughout the period October 2010 through to January 2011. The issues were addressed in detail in ASIC Complaint 8.1 and are summarized below in relation to M&G trading of CuDeco shares: Collusion between brokers in achieving shared trading objectives; The use of a network of brokers by M&G interests and/or related parties to: o constrain prices; o create volatility; and o assist with accumulation. Strategic selling and/or strategic buying designed to impact prices in attempts to control the market and to facilitate the accumulation of shares. The co-ordinated, strategic approach to trading has resulted in persistent anomalies in daily Downtick and Uptick data identifiable with setting artificial pricing levels; Control over pricing levels through all auction periods; Manipulative short selling to facilitate the accumulation of shares and to restrain price rises; Generating extensive volumes of Wash Trades and/or trades resulting in no changes to beneficial ownership in an attempt to influence the market in favour of accumulation by M&G; The widespread use of broker cross-trades and other crossings to control prices. The majority of trading represented strategic, but manipulative, buying and selling designed to control the market by setting artificial prices as shares were strongly accumulated by the M&G Group. The trading activity distorted the market with substantial volumes of buying and selling being non-genuine as per the High Court definitions. The trends demonstrate a wolf-pack type trading mentality where multiple brokers have been used to control prices and to facilitate the accumulation of shares undertaken by the M&G Group. Importantly, unfair control over the market is seen to be facilitated by high speed interactions between proprietary trading algorithms able to set prices through continuous interactions between preferred buyers and preferred sellers. The research that follows looks closely at trading from Oct 2010 to Jan 2010 and assesses trading prior to M&Gs involvement, during M&Gs accumulation campaign, and after M&G had completed their buying. The broker trends brought to attention are the result of a highly orchestrated approach to trading, not chance events. They need to be assessed and dealt with in terms of the directions provided by the Australian High Court. The issues identified concerning CuDeco trading strongly point towards share price manipulation and the same issues have ramifications for all stocks listed on the ASX. 16
Section 8.2.2 CuDECO TRADING PRIOR TO M&G ACCUMULATION Oct 1 to Oct 28, 2010 Trading during October 2010 mostly took place without the M&G Group having a presence in the market that required disclosure. M&G buying began buying CuDeco shares on October 29 and finished on December 14, 2010. The following review of October trading therefore excludes October 29 trading. Trading for October before M&G began their buying has been assessed in terms of broker involvements with Downticks and broker involvements regarding the setting of auction prices. Both indicators assist in determining which brokers were the most influential in controlling prices. They provide information where attempts to set or maintain artificial prices can be observed before M&G began buying. Assessments in relation to trading have used the common sense approach to fair trading that was re- affirmed by the recent High Court decision, part of which may be stated as: Genuine sellers seek to achieve the highest possible prices for their shares while genuine buyers look to pay the minimum to secure their requirements. The realities of the market usually means that prices are transacted somewhere between the two extremes. Logically, it follows that: genuine sellers would prefer to avoid high levels of Downticks in price as that would mean that they are receiving less for their shares. Data trends where the proportion of Downticks generated is far greater than an entitys overall share of selling are therefore highly dubious, as the seller appears to be targeting lower prices rather than extracting maximum returns for their shares. buyers that are able to achieve large numbers of purchases associated with Downticks in prices, compared to their overall share of buying in the market, also attract suspicion. It is not reasonable to expect small amounts of buying to nearly always attract low prices, yet that has been a regular feature of the trading by some brokers in relation to CuDeco.
It is very difficult, if not impossible, to explain anomalous trading patterns from a perspective of genuine trading so explanations involving collusion, artificial markets, non-genuine trading and share price manipulation need to be considered. Data trends that consistently suggest share price manipulation appear to manifest through the design of high frequency trading algorithms where preferential order execution seems able to connect preferred sellers with preferred buyers. In doing so the market becomes extremely compromised and decidedly unfair to all other participants.
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8.2.1 MANIPULATIVE TRADING TRENDS Share price manipulation issues are particularly evident when attention is directed to the price movements reflected by Downtick data (and for that matter, Uptick data). Price movements and volume movements provide key trading signals that are monitored by ASX surveillance teams in their role as market regulators. However the sort of analysis undertaken by research appears to have been ignored as extremely anomalous data trends in respect of CuDeco have been tolerated for over three years. The regulator was in fact alerted that something was radically wrong with the trading in CuDeco back in December 2010, and in recent months trading anomalies have reached alarming levels. The basis used for analysis is a statistical expectation that over time, the number of Downticks a broker is associated with should be commensurate with the amount of selling undertaken. There are three scenarios possible when a brokers market share of Downticks as a seller is compared to their market share of selling, two of which suggest share price manipulation as shown in the charts below.
Similarly, there are three scenarios possible when a brokers market share of Downticks as a buyer is compared to their market share of all buying, two of which again suggest share price manipulation.
Analysis on a daily basis over long
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Broker A Broker B Broker C Broker D Broker E
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Broker E Broker C Broker C Broker D Broker A - Broker D represents an acceptable trading situation.
- Brokers A and B show DTs as sellers far in excess of their share of selling, indicating that they have targeted lower prices. Such behaviour repeated over and over from one day to the next is manipulative. Period!
- Broker C sold large volumes but avoided DTs which is trading that also attracts suspicion. Such trading continuously occuring from one day to the next would also be suggestive of share price manipulation.
- Note: HFT algorithms are capable of conducting sales between preferred sellers and preferred buyers so as to either target Downticks in price or to avoid Downticks in price. The trading in such instances is non-genuine and creates an artificial trading envionment.
% of DTs as Sellers
% of All Selling
% of DTs as Buyers
% of All Buying
Broker DT involvement as Sellers Broker DT involvement as Buyers - The buying by Broker B appears reasonable with DT purchases matching the brokers buying profile across the market.
- Broker E shows DTs as a buyer far in excess of their share of buying across the market indicating either fortuitous trading or manipulative activity.
- Broker C bought large volumes but somehow avoided DTs purchases, which again suggests suspicious trading activity.
Analysis of long term data trends suggests that the majority of trading taking place is strategic and has resulted in an artificial or contrived market. The bulk of trading is non-genuine with algorithms continuously performing actions designed to deliver strategic advantage but which at their core represent share price manipulation. B 18
8.2.2.2 OCTOBER 2010 BROKER TRADING DATA Broker trading from October 1 to October 28 2010 before M&G began their on-market buying on October 29, 2010, is summarized below. Overall market shares of brokers are based on the total value of buying & selling while the market shares for purchases and sales are based on the volumes traded.
The following observations compare broker data to registry data for October. Commonwealth Securities trading only resulted in registry share flows of around 1.96 million shares OFF and 1.84 million shares ON. It leaves more than 3 million buys and sells unaccounted for. Etrade Securities trading resulted in registry flows of 0.78 million shares OFF and 0.74 million shares ON leaving around 1 million buys and sells unaccounted for. A further 1 million unaccounted for buys and sells were associated with AIEX trading. The net buying of 1.18 million shares by Morgan Smith (SBAR) follows the processing of 10 million placement shares on behalf of M&G through their settlement accounts. Yet only 400 thousand shares appeared on the register in relation to client purchases. UBS saw 2.22 million shares flow out of its broker nominee accounts and 2.19 million shares flowing in. The activity is at odds with their net selling of over half a million shares and their settlement accounts being responsible for 13.9% of settlement transactions despite a market share in trading of only 5.2%. The data suggests widespread co-operation between brokers or indeed collusion. The trading by broker Citigroup Global (974,589 sales, 929,302 buys) compares to registry movements for Citicorp Nominees of 5.5 million shares OFF the register and 5.8 million shares ON to the register, again showing other brokers were heavily involved with its trading but not disclosed. The trading by broker Deutsche Bank (1.91 million sales, 1.97 million buys) compares to registry movements of only around 400 thousand shares in and out of its broker nominee account.
The data demonstrates how difficult it is to reconcile broker trading against the entities responsible for placing the orders and how difficult it is to quantify the impact particular entities have on the market with their buying and selling. It also highlights why audits are necessary to properly assess suspicious trading behaviours. 19
8.2.2.3 OCTOBER 2010 DOWNTICK TRENDS (Excluding Oct 29) The table and chart contrast the involvement of brokers with forcing Downticks in price as sellers throughout October trading, (except for Oct 29 when M&G commenced their buying) , and also compares broker market shares regarding all selling.
The table and chart contrast the involvement of brokers as buyers of Downticks in price throughout October (excluding Oct 29) and also compare broker buying profiles regarding all buying.
UBS SECURITIES - DOWNTICK DATA Iress broker data reveals that UBS cross-trades represented 64.6% of all UBS Downtick sales, and 77.6 % of their Downtick purchases. Around 90% of UBS Downtick sales involved parcel sizes fewer than 400 shares where the average parcel was just 125 shares.
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% UBS and DMG are clearly seen to be active in forcing downward movements in price throughout October. Broker MSDW has also shown a tendency to seek lower prices with the small amount of selling they supplied to the market The strong levels of DT purchases by UBS is partly because of high levels of UBS crossings that forced DTs. DT Involvement as Sellers
DT Involvement as Buyers The crossing data clearly represents strategic transactions designed to lower the share price rather than the genuine matching of client buying and selling orders. 20
8.2.2.4 INDIVIDUAL BROKER CHARTS Sellers of Downticks in October 2010 Trading The selling pressure supplied by brokers throughout October is summarized in the following charts. The charts only feature the brokers where anomalism has occurred at prominent levels. With just a few brokers featured, (i.e., UBS, DMG, MSDW, COMM and CITI) the collusive nature of trading is observed with the rotation of prominent roles between brokers on a daily basis, with other brokers who are generally inconspicuous with their trading, also becoming prominent on occasions. All of the trading activity of prominent brokers is likely to be on behalf of institutional clients. The extent of anomalies raises deep concerns about the status of the market during October and the accuracy of price discovery. In each case, trading appears strongly focussed on reducing prices using a tag- team approach, rather than achieving the best selling outcomes for clients.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Oct 1 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct 18 Oct 19 Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct 27 Oct 28 Oct 29
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Oct 1 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct 18 Oct 19 Oct 20 Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct 27 Oct 28 Oct 29 Deutsche Bank (DMG) UBS Securities (UBS) October Trading
% of DTs as Sellers
% of All Selling
% of DTs as Sellers
% of All Selling
Selling activity by UBS Securities and Deutsche Bank below, resulted in highly anomalous trading data.
Small amounts of selling are seen to have had a very substantial impact on prices.
Also, selling by both brokers was non-genuine in the sense that it didnt seek the best possible prices Highly anomalous numbers of DTs corresponding to the UBS selling profile Highly anomlaous DT numbers given the DMG trading profiles 21
The rotation of roles as leading sellers of Downtick transactions is evidenced in the charts but also by the list of prominent brokers each day which is provided below. The brokers have been colour coded so that the changes in leading roles are more easily noticed. Day Broker DT %
Day Broker DT %
Day Broker DT % Oct-01 CITI 44.4%
Oct-12 COMM 20.9%
Oct-21 MERL 13.3% Oct-04 DMG 30.6%
Oct-13 DMG 25.0%
Oct-22 DMG 52.9% Oct-05 UBS 44.0%
Oct-14 DMG 26.5%
Oct-25 UBS 33.3% Oct-06 MERL 32.6%
Oct-15 DMG 27.8%
Oct-26 UBS 40.6% Oct-07 DMG 28.2%
Oct-18 COMM 20.5%
Oct-27 DMG 53.8% Oct-08 UBS 56.3%
Oct-19 UBS 73.5%
Oct-28 DMG 34.5% Oct-11 UBS 22.5%
Oct-20 COMM 30.8%
Oct-29 UBS 38.3%
Trading by Commonwealth Securities is difficult to categorize because of the mix of retail trading and institutional trading it caters for. It was responsible for both high levels of Downtick transactions from time to time, and high levels of selling generally. Its selling profile for October is included below. (Registry data and Iress broker data has been used for the trading statistics listed adjacent to the chart).
Considerable selling pressure is seen to have emanated from COMM, both in terms of the volumes of shares put up for sale, and the downward movements in price caused. Occasional brokers include CITI and MSDW whose selling profiles are shown below.
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Oct 1 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct 18 Oct 19 Oct 20 Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct 25 Oct 27 Oct 28 Oct 29
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Oct 1 Oct 5 Oct 7 Oct 12 Oct 14 Oct 19 Oct 22 Oct 26 Oct 28 The trading by all five brokers, but by UBS in particular, would have been instrumental in preparing the market for the accumulation that took place by M&G in November. Certainly shareholders were frustrated by constant confusion about the resource and the large volumes of trading churn that had constricted the market since August.
% of DTs as Sellers
% of All Selling
Commonwealth Securities (COMM)
The following COMM data for October suggests that DT transactions are likely to reflect institutional sales more so than retail selling.
COMM ASX Sales: 6.1 million Retail Sales: 1.96 million
Total Retail Sell Trades: 278
Total ASX Sell Trades: 2,652
Retail Sales by Volume: 32% Insto. Sales by Volume: 68% Morgan Stanley (MSDW)
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Oct 1 Oct 5 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct 18 Oct 19 Oct 22 Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct 27 Oct 28 Oct 29 Citigroup (CITI)
% of DTs as Sellers
% of All Selling
COMM Statistics
Regular anomalous DT sells by MSDW 22
8.2.2.5 INDIVIDUAL BROKER CHARTS Buyers of Downticks in October 2010 Trading Brokers who were able to secure large numbers of Downtick purchases as buyers during October 2010 trading included UBS, CITI, MSDW and COMM. Their ability to secure cheap shares with only small amounts of buying supplied to the market is quite extraordinary and it is doubtful that the trading result is due to good luck or good trading skills. The anomalous trends are more likely the result of collaboration by brokers and share price manipulation delivered by HFT algorithms linking preferred buyers to designated sellers in transactions required to lower prices. Essentially the trading mechanisms employed are quite artificial and represent non-genuine selling and buying. High volumes of DT crossings by the likes of UBS attract similar concerns as these transactions also identify with creating an artificial market. The buying profiles of the leading Downtick purchasers are provided below.
UBS Downtick crossings also equate to DT purchases, however the broker has still facilitated a large number of DT sales as a buyer with sales coming from other brokers. The facilitation of Downticks as a seller and as a buyer raises share price manipulation issues as the trading appears to be contrived, not genuine.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Oct 1 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct 18 Oct 19 Oct 20 Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct 27 Oct 28 Oct 29 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct 18 Oct 19 Oct 20 Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct 27 Oct 28 Oct 29 Citigroup Global (CITI) UBS Securities (UBS)
% of DTs as Buyers
% of All Buying
% of DTs as Buyers
% of All Buying
High levels of DT purchases on Oct 19 resulted from high levels of DT crossings. Crossings represented 78.9% of UBS sales and 95.6% of UBS buys Highly anomalous DT buys by UBS Highly anomalous DT buys by UBS DT buys by CITI were consistently anomalous 23
Once again the involvement by Commonwealth Securities in being the purchaser of large numbers of Downtick trades is confused by retail activity taking place alongside amongst institutional activity. However the trading data for COMM suggests that institutions dominated COMM trading and that a large proportion of Downticks would have been picked up by institutional buying, again orchestrated by algorithms.
The other dubious feature of trading is the rotation of brokers in playing leading roles as buyers of Downtick trades. The behaviour is particularly suspect given substantial interests could be switching orders from one broker to the next to avoid being too obvious. COMM is the clear leader although in most cases UBS is a close second. Audits are needed to clarify the situation regarding institutional dominance and those actually responsible. The table highlights the leading buyer of DT trades each day. Day Broker DT %
Day Broker DT %
Day Broker DT % Oct-01 COMM 51.9%
Oct-12 COMM 20.9%
Oct-21 CMCS 36.7% Oct-04 COMM 33.3%
Oct-13 COMM 18.4%
Oct-22 COMM 30.0% Oct-05 COMM 34.0%
Oct-14 UBS 20.6%
Oct-25 UBS 34.5% Oct-06 COMM 16.3%
Oct-15 COMM 13.0%
Oct-26 UBS 44.8% Oct-07 INST 17.6%
Oct-18 COMM 21.8%
Oct-27 COMM 41.3% Oct-08 UBS 44.4%
Oct-19 UBS 58.1%
Oct-28 COMM 25.9% Oct-11 COMM 23.6%
Oct-20 UBS 15.4%
Oct-29 UBS 23.5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct 15 Oct 18 Oct 19 Oct 20 Oct 22 Oct 25 Oct 27 Oct 28 Oct 29 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Oct 1 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct 18 Oct 19 Oct 20 Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct 27 Oct 28 Oct 29 Morgan Stanley (MSDW) Commonwealth Securities (COMM)
% of DTs as Buyers
% of All Buying
% of DTs as Buyers
% of All Buying
Regular anomalies in regard to DT sales by COMM Occasional anomalous DT buys by MSDW 24
8.2.2.6 OCTOBER AUCTION TRENDS - Selling Brokers As detailed in ASIC Complaint 8.1 the influence of brokers during auctions as sellers, can be gauged by creating an index that takes into account their average selling and the number of auctions they have participated in. E.g., SELLING INDEX = [Average Selling Rate Across All Auctions] X [Auction Attendance] Separate indexes can be calculated for opening auctions and closing auctions. To identify brokers who have had prominent influences, the two indexes can be combined as shown in the table. Prominence is seen to be driven by the volume of shares supplied to auctions and the frequency of attendance. The need to be involved in price setting on a daily basis is particularly revealing in regard to UBS given its minor market share over all trading. More reconcilable is the dominant selling by COMM at auctions as it was a dominant seller across all trading. The ambiguity with COMM however relates to what extent institutions were responsible for their prominence regarding auction selling. Oct 2010 Opening Auctions -Sellers Closing Auctions - Sellers Overall Broker Avg. Sells Attendance Index (AM) Avg. Sells Attendance Index (PM) INDEX COMM 24.6% 12 2.95 21.0% 15 3.14 6.09 DMG 7.9% 15 1.19 14.0% 21 2.94 4.13 BELL 35.4% 1 0.35 31.9% 11 3.50 3.86 AIEX 35.4% 7 2.48 14.1% 9 1.27 3.75 UBS 10.4% 20 2.08 8.5% 19 1.61 3.69 ETRD 22.0% 6 1.32 11.5% 6 0.69 2.01 INST 47.4% 4 1.90 0.00 1.90 MSDW 6.7% 5 0.34 10.7% 14 1.50 1.83 MACQ 10.2% 6 0.61 10.1% 12 1.22 1.83 CITI 18.5% 4 0.74 8.4% 10 0.84 1.58 IMCP 8.7% 11 0.96 3.9% 14 0.55 1.50 CSUI 17.2% 5 0.86 5.6% 8 0.44 1.30 SBAR 41.7% 3 1.25 0.00 1.25 SOSL 21.5% 5 1.08 7.4% 2 0.15 1.22 BBY 30.1% 2 0.60 22.6% 2 0.45 1.05 RBSM 31.0% 1 0.31 17.7% 3 0.53 0.84 MACP 10.5% 6 0.63 3.1% 1 0.03 0.66 SUSQ 0.00 16.1% 3 0.48 0.48 GS 10.5% 1 0.11 8.6% 4 0.34 0.45 MERL 25.6% 1 0.26 2.4% 7 0.17 0.43 RBC 0.00 41.3% 1 0.41 0.41 TPPM 15.4% 1 0.15 7.9% 2 0.16 0.31
The chart compares relative performances as sellers during opening and closing auctions.
The chart compares relative performances as buyers during opening and closing auctions.
The rotation of roles between leading sellers and buyers at auctions can only be properly understood by identifying the clients involved. For example one particular entity could completely dominate price setting by spreading strategic buying and selling across multiple brokers. Indeed, algorithms could be designed to implement such trading strategies and without audits any manipulation taking place would be extremely difficult to detect. The fact that auctions were controlled by a small group of brokers throughout the entire month is however a strong signal that vested interests sought to control prices.
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0
Opening Auctions
Closing Auctions
Combined
INDEX VALUES Opening Auction Prominence COMM, BBY, UBS, BELL, DMG
BUYING COMPARISON - Opening Auctions Versus Closing Auctions 26
8.2.2.8 AUCTION TRADING VERSUS NORMAL TRADING Another indicator to gauge attempts to control auction prices is afforded by comparing auction volumes by brokers, to the volumes put through the market in normal trading. The tables compare selling volumes at auctions to the selling in the normal course of trading, and the buying volumes at auctions compared to normal trading. Increases during auctions are shown highlighted. Oct 2010 SELLING MARKET SHARES
- The increase in selling at auctions by BELL, and to a lesser extent by MACQ.
- For BELL to be holding back shares to deal at the auction close may create regulatory issues as orders are meant to be placed into the market as they are received.
- DMGs increased buying in auctions is balanced by subtle decreases by SBAR, HUB 24 and CITI, all identifiable with institutional trading.
- Once again if selling and/or buying by a major entitiy is distributed across a range of brokers, individual contributions would mean very little. The data by itself may not present obvious concerns but when viewed against Downtick data and high volumes of Wash Trades the situation needs to be properly clarified.
- Despite over 50 brokers trading CDU shares in October, just a few brokers have effectively controlled pricing levels at auctions with the entities acting from within COMM extremely influential.
- The disingenuous nature of COMMs dominance at auctions is borne out by the fact that despite having access to large volumes of buyers and sellers only 15.9% of their auction trades represented crossings. Normal Selling versus Auction Selling
Normal Buying versus Auction Buying
Normal Buying
Auction Buying
Normal Selling
Auction Selling
Market Share Market Share 27
Section 8.2.3 CuDECO TRADING ASSOCIATED WITH ACCUMULATION BY M&G OCTOBER 29, NOVEMBER & DECEMBER 2010
The buying program by the M&G Group extended from Oct 29, 2010 to December 14, 2010. Their buying was somewhat intermittent with days where they were completely absent from the market. The spasmodic nature of their buying provides an opportunity to compare broker trading trends for when M&G were active in the market to the trading trends when they didnt have a market presence. Any concerted attempts by brokers to influence prices need to be viewed against the backdrop of strong buying by the M&G Group. Brokers acting to restrain prices would no doubt have assisted the accumulation program undertaken by the M&G Group. It represents an issue that needs addressing because of the obvious connotations of share price manipulation.
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8.2.3.1 TRADING DATA ASSOCIATED WITH M&G ACCUMULATING SHARES: Oct 29 to Dec 14, 2010 Broker trading on the days M&G were in the market accumulating shares is summarized in the table.
OBSERVATIONS: The leading broker on behalf of M&G was Morgan Stanley (MSDW). Other brokers who purchased shares on behalf of M&G were JP Morgan and Citigroup which demonstrates a joint approach to trading. Also suggestive of a joint approach to trading by institutional brokers was the trading churn supplied to the market by brokers such as DMG, UBS, SBAR, and SOSL that coincided with M&Gs buying. It is likely that the joint efforts of these brokers, and others, resulted in a compromised, artificial trading environment. Whether a network of brokers was acting on direct instructions from M&G or interests related to M&G, or whether they were acting informally in relation to their own trading accounts, the large volume trading accompanying M&G buying points towards insider knowledge, collusion and a compromised market. A review of the register for October and November shows that a large proportion of trading by Commonwealth Securities was for sophisticated investors, not retail clients. In the months October and November 14.5 million sellss and 13.5 million buys in the market translated to 7.6 million share movements OFF the register and 6.2 million share movements ON to the register for retail investors. It leaves 6.9 million sells and 7.3 million buys unable to accounted for. Logically, the surplus trades would be attributable to institutional investors and camouflaged through the settlement system. It represents a very large number of trades with the potential to maintain an artificial market perhaps in support of the accumulation of shares by affiliates or associates. 29
8.2.3.2 DOWNTICK TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACCUMULATION OF SHARES BY M&G The table and chart contrast the involvement of brokers with forcing Downticks in price as M&G accumulated shares, and also compares their selling profiles in the market. M&G commenced their buying on October 29 and it extended through November and early December.
The table and chart contrast the involvement of brokers with being the purchasers of Downticks in price during the period M&G accumulated shares, and also compares broker buying profiles.
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% UBS was the prominent broker regarding Downticks as M&G accumulated shares. The downward pressure on prices would have aided the accumulation taking place. The strong levels of UBS Downtick purchases were mainly the result of large volumes of crossings put through the market at lower prices. DT Involvement as Sellers DT Involvement as Buyers
% of DTs as Sellers
% of All Selling
% of DTs as Buyers
% of All Buying
UBS SECURITIES - DOWNTICK DATA Cross-trades represented 40.8% of all UBS Downtick sales, and 65.1 % of their Downtick purchases. Around 87% of UBS Downtick sales involved parcel sizes fewer than 400 shares where the average parcel was just 91 shares.
The data again suggests trading to impact prices rather than genuine selling, particularly as the selling appears to have had little regard for receiving the best returns for clients.
30
8.2.3.3 BROKERS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS TRADING TRENDS The following charts feature brokers whose trading while M&G accumulated shares exhibits non-genuine trading characteristics with a focus on reducing prices rather than attempting to achieve the best returns for clients.
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Oct 29 Nov 1 Nov 2 Nov 5 Nov 8 Nov 9 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 19 Nov 22 Nov 24 Dec 2 Dec 10 Dec 13 Dec 14 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Oct 29 Nov 2 Nov 5 Nov 8 Nov 9 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 15 Nov 17 Nov 19 Nov 22 Nov 24 Dec 10 Dec 13 Dec 14 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Oct 29 Nov 1 Nov 2 Nov 8 Nov 9 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 19 Nov 22 Nov 24 Dec 2 Dec 14
% of DTs as Sellers
% of All Selling
Deutsche Bank (DMG) Merrill Lynch (MERL)
% of DTs as Sellers
% of All Selling
Morgan Stanley (MSDW)
% of DTs as Sellers
% of All Selling
Recurring anomalies relating to Downticks i.e., large numbers of DTs corresponding to minor selling profiles Large numbers of DTs corresponding to minor selling profiles by MERL DT trades larger in number than suggested by MSDWs share of selling 31
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% Oct 29 Nov 1 Nov 2 Nov 5 Nov 8 Nov 9 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 19 Nov 22 Nov 24 Dec 2 Dec 10 Dec 13 Dec 14 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% Oct 29 Nov 1 Nov 2 Nov 5 Nov 8 Nov 9 Nov 10 Nov 12 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 22 Nov 24 Dec 2 Dec 10 Dec 13 Dec 14 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Oct 29 Nov 2 Nov 5 Nov 8 Nov 9 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 19 Nov 22 Nov 24 Dec 10 Dec 13 Dec 14 Macquarie Insto (MACQ) UBS Securities (UBS) Morgan Smith (SBAR)
% of DTs as Sellers
% of All Selling
% of DTs as Sellers
% of All Selling
% of DTs as Sellers
% of All Selling
Highly irregular daily trading profiles by UBS featuring large numbers of DTs corresponding to minor selling market shares In contrast to UBS, SBAR was associated with daily selling profiles where their share of selling was well above their share of DT trades. The exception is November 5.
A reluctance to force DTs equates more with genuine selling that is seeking higher prices than the targeting of DTs that appears to be evident in trading by UBS, DMG and MERL.
MACQ trading shows evidence of two extremes (i.e., Nov 8 & Nov 9 and Nov 19 & Nov 22), both of which question what trading algorithms were programmed to achieve on those days. The trading patterns look to be contrived/strategic rather than genuine especially when viewed in context with the algorithms of other brokers.
32
All of the brokers that show anomalism between Downticks and selling volumes are identifiable with institutions. Prominence regarding Downticks is again seen to rotate from one broker to the next on almost a daily basis. It gives the impression of sharing the load as attempts are made to control trading and to set artificial prices. The rotations would have the effect of ensuring that no single broker became too obvious in any attempts being made to unfairly manage the market. Even so, the trading of UBS is a standout with, for example, 65% of all Downticks on a day when they were associated with only 6% of all selling taking place. It is an extraordinary statistic and cannot be reconciled with normal, genuine trading. Yet it is not an aberration as their dominance regarding Downticks, despite generally minor selling volumes, extended across October, November and December. The large levels of selling that caused lower prices would have strongly suited the accumulation taking place for M&G. It is also most unlikely that the targeted selling responsible for widespread trading anomalies and providing strong support for accumulation by M&G was merely a coincidence. Although not illustrated in the current complaint, similar anomalism is evident in brokers such as CITI, UBS and INST in regard to Downtick purchases. A large numbers of DT purchases by brokers have generally been achieved with relatively minor buying profiles which again represent situations completely counterintuitive to expectations of genuine trading. 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% Nov 1 Nov 2 Nov 5 Nov 8 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 19 Nov 22 Nov 24 Dec 2 Dec 10 Dec 14 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% Nov 2 Nov 5 Nov 15 Nov 17 Nov 24 Dec 13 Goldman Sachs (GS) Instinet (INST) Being responsible for 29.6% of Downticks but with only 1.6 % of all selling is difficult to explain in terms other than share price manipulation. Anomalous trading activity by GS occurred on Nov 11, Nov 12 and Nov 15
% of DTs as Sellers
% of All Selling
% of DTs as Sellers
% of All Selling
33
Section 8.2.4
CuDECO TRADING DATA COINCIDING WITH M&G BEING ABSENT FROM THE MARKET
Trading on days when M&G withdrew from the market provides further insights into the relationships between brokers. Concerns relate to possible collusion between brokers or between trading entities acting through a wide cross section of brokers. Trading where buying and selling related to the same interests (but largely unidentifiable amongst institutional nominee accounts without audits) is dispersed across the entire market, is a recipe for market dysfunction, market rigging and artificial pricing levels. Yet such trading appears to have been the norm rather than the exception in the period October 2010 to January2010. Brokers acting to restrain CuDeco prices on days that M&G accumulation wasnt taking place would have helped to shape and prepare the market in favour of further accumulation.
34
8.2.4.1 TRADING DATA COINCIDING WITH M&G WITHHOLDING THEIR BUYING M&G were active accumulators of CuDeco stock over the period October 29 to December 14, 2010 however there were several days when they withdrew from the market. No M&G buying was declared for November 3, 4, 18, 23, 25, 26, 29 and November 30. During December and leading up to December 14, they were also absent from the market on December 1, 3, 6, 7, 8 and December 9. Broker data corresponding to days when M&G were absent from the market was as follows.
OBSERVATIONS Trading volumes were well below the levels that occurred when M&G were active in the market. Morgan Stanley (MSDW) continued to be a strong net buyer of stock even though their major client had withdrawn from the market. It is possible that they were accumulating stock ready to pass on to M&G. The above volumes total 11.63 million shares which compares to 47.8 million shares trading on the days when M&G accumulated stock. With MSDW the main buyer for M&G it doesnt follow that their standing in the market as a net buyer should cause all other brokers to go into a trading frenzy. The situation demonstrates the collusive nature of trading and an artificial market environment created in support of accumulation. Nearly all other brokers were net sellers with back and forth trading churn the major feature of trading. The back and forth trading churn is also an indicator of artificial trading with many transactions netted out and so not impacting the register. The result has generally been a capped/static share price that drifted lower through short selling and an absence of M&G buying. 35
8.2.4.2 DOWNTICK TRENDS CORRESPONDING TO M&G BEING ABSENT FROM THE MARKET The table and chart compares broker Downtick involvements and broker selling involvements corresponding to the days when M&G were absent from the market for CuDeco shares.
The table and chart below contrast the involvements of brokers with being the purchasers of Downticks in price during the period M&G were absent from the market and also compares broker buying profiles..
UBS SECURITIES - DOWNTICK DATA Cross-trades represented 55.2% of all UBS Downtick sales, and 58.2 % of their Downtick purchases. Around 93% of UBS Downtick sales involved trades of fewer than 400 shares where the average parcel was just 65 shares. UBS are again to be seen as active in targeting lower prices and not seeking to achieve the maximum returns for sales.
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% UBS was joined by DMG as the prominent brokers regarding Downticks as M&G withdrew from the market. The strong levels of UBS Downtick purchases was again the result of large volumes of small crossings that served to reduce prices. Anomalous trend by MERL as well. DT Involvement as Buyers DT Involvement as Sellers
% of DTs as Sellers
% of All Selling
% of DTs as Buyers
% of All Buying
36
8.2.4.3 BROKERS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS TRADING TRENDS The following charts feature brokers whose trading on the days that M&G were absent from the market exhibits non-genuine trading characteristics with a focus on reducing prices rather than attempting to achieve the best returns for clients.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Nov 3 Nov 4 Nov 18 Nov 23 Nov 25 Nov 26 Nov 29 Nov 30 Dec 1 Dec 3 Dec 6 Dec 7 Dec 8 Dec 9 0% 5% 10% 15% Nov 3 Nov 4 Nov 18 Nov 23 Nov 25 Nov 26 Nov 29 Nov 30 Dec 1 Dec 6 Dec 7 Dec 8 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Nov 3 Nov 4 Nov 18 Nov 23 Nov 25 Nov 26 Nov 29 Nov 30 Dec 1 Dec 3 Dec 7 Dec 8 Dec 9 Deutsche Bank (DMG) Goldman Sachs (GS)
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Dec 3 Dec 6 Dec 9 Nov 18 Nov 23 Nov 26 Nov 29 Nov 3 Nov 30 Nov 4 Morgan Stanley (MSDW)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Dec 1 Dec 6 Dec 7 Dec 8 Dec 9 Nov 18 Nov 23 Nov 26 Nov 29 Nov 3 Nov 30 Nov 4 Merill Lynch (MERL)
% of DTs as Sellers
% of All Selling
UBS Securities (UBS) Trading again featured a rotation of roles on a daily basis but with the overall effect of providing downward pressure to prices while M&G were absent from the market (Refer Section 8.2.8.8.7). A clearer picture would emerge from identifying the clients that brokers were acting for. The same degree of anomalism is also present in the charts of brokers who were leading buyers of Downticks.
% of DTs as Sellers
% of All Selling
% of DTs as Sellers
% of All Selling
Trading trends unable to be explained from a perspective of genuine trading 37
Section 8.2.5
DECEMBER TRADING DATA AFTER THE M&G GROUP HAD COMPLETED THEIR BUYING
38
8.2.5.1 DECEMBER TRADING DATA FOLLOWING M&G COMPLETING THEIR BUYING M&G completed their buying requirements on December 14, 2010. Broker trading data for CuDeco shares on the remaining days in December was as follows.
OBSERVATIONS CuDeco trading volumes dropped off remarkably as soon as M&G ceased their buying, although the Christmas period would also have helped to reduce trading levels. Trading churn was again the major feature of trading. The back and forth trading churn is also an indicator of non-genuine trading and results in artificial prices. It was also responsible for a capped, generally static share price through the remainder of December. Prices closed at $4.64 on December 14 when M&G completed its buying, then fell to $4.40 the next day before finishing at $4.59 in light trade at the end of December. The pricing levels further highlight the artificial market that was created by dubious/illegal trading behaviours back on August 18. Nothing had changed materially regarding the company between Aug 18 and Dec 31, yet the share price had recovered its losses in going from $4.62 on August 16 at the time of a trading halt, to $2.45 on August 18 after a resouce upgrade, and then back to $4.55 on December 31. A major finding of research across a range of ASX companies is the acceptance of manipulative trading activity activity by the regulator (or a failure to recognize manipulative activity) on occasions where news makes share price volatility somehow reasonable. The approach ignores an assessment of the actual trading taking place. The approach also tends to ignore situations where significant news fails to have an impact, and where illegal price capping is often responsible for subdued market reactions. Section 10 of ASIC Complaint 8.1 <Reference LINK> amply demonstrates the illegal trading behaviours that can be used to dampen significant company news. 39
8.2.5.2 DECEMBER DOWNTICK TRENDS FOLLOWING M&G COMPLETING THEIR BUYING The table and chart compares broker Downtick involvements and selling involvements following M&G withdrawing from the market. The period extends from December 15 to December 31, 2010.
The table and chart below contrast the involvements of brokers with being the purchasers of Downticks in price after M&G ceased buying, and also compare broker buying profiles.
UBS SECURITIES - DOWNTICK DATA Cross-trades represented 41.2% of all UBS Downtick sales, and 41.1.2 % of their Downtick purchases. Around 87% of UBS Downtick sales involved trades of fewer than 400 shares where the average parcel was just 67 shares. Cross-trades, like short selling appear to be key trading mechanisms that in the hands of unscrupulous traders, can be used to force prices lower.
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% UBS and DMG were again the prominent brokers regarding Downticks following the completion of M&G buying. MERLs trading was similarly anomalous but to a lesser extent. The strong levels of UBS Downtick purchases was again the result of large volumes of small crossings that resulted in reduced prices. DT Involvement as Buyers DT Involvement as Sellers
% of DTs as Sellers
% of All Selling
% of DTs as Buyers
% of All Buying
40
8.2.5.3 BROKERS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS TRADING TRENDS The following charts feature brokers whose trading after M&G ceased their buying in CuDeco exhibits non- genuine trading characteristics, with a focus on reducing prices, rather than attempting to achieve the best returns for clients. The daily rotations as prominent DT sellers by institutional brokers again suggests collusion.
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 20 Dec 21 Dec 22 Dec 24 Dec 29 Dec 30
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 20 Dec 21 Dec 22 Dec 23 Dec 24 Dec 29 Dec 30 Dec 31
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 20 Dec 22 Dec 23 Dec 29 Dec 30 UBS Securities (UBS) Merrill Lynch (MERL)
0% 5% 10% 15% Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 21 Dec 22 Dec 23 Dec 29 Dec 31 Macquarie Insto (MACQ)
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 20 Dec 22 Dec 23 Dec 30 Dec 31
0% 5% 10% 15% Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 20 Dec 22 Dec 24 Dec 29 Dec 30 Credit Suisse (CSUI) Citigroup Global (CITI)
% of DTs as Sellers
% of All Selling
Highly anomalous trading patterns are unable to be explained in terms of genuine trading. Days where reasonable levels of selling has avoided Downtick trades (e.g., Dec 16) adds further suspicion to UBS trading activity Deutsche Bank (DMG) 41
Section 8.2.6 CuDECO TRADING DATA FOR JANUARY The months of September and October saw high volumes of trading which was characterized by the churning of institutional holdings. The trading churn was accompanied by prices being held in check at levels imposed after the August 18 resource announcement; the catalyst for a dramatic slump in the share price. Trading during November and December reflected the strong buying campaign conducted for M&G which saw prices recapture their pre-August 18 levels, however trading in January with M&G absent from the market, saw prices retreat substantially on low volumes. The resource announcement paved the way for M&G to build a major stake in the company, firstly through a placement from the company, and then through on-market buying. Trading churn was the distinguishing feature of trading from immediately following the ill-fated Aug 18 resource upgrade announcement to immediately M&G completed their buying campaign. Trading then became listless with prices drifting in response to continued capping behaviours accompanied by short selling. It is extremely unlikely that the events were just random market fluctuations in response to confusing news back in August 2010. The anomalous data trends accompanying all trading suggest a highly organised campaign by sophisticated investors that created an extremely compromised, artificial market for the entire period reviewed.
42
8.2.6.1 JANUARY TRADING DATA FOLLOWING M&G COMPLETING THEIR BUYING M&G completed their buying requirements on Dec 14, 2010 which saw reduced volumes traded for the remainder of December and through January 2011. Broker trading data for January 2011 was as follows.
OBSERVATIONS Broker volumes were substantially reduced following M&G withdrawing from the market, with only 7.5 million shares traded for the entire month. The contrast between the month of January and say Oct 29 is extremely revealing. M&G commenced their buying on Oct 29 with 5.7 million shares trading on a single day. The data demonstrates a contrived, artificial market accompanying M&G accumulation where a large number of brokers and large volumes of churn trades were used to create an artificial market in support of accumulation. Commonwealth Securities data again reflects trading by sophisticated investors as well as retail activity. Of the 1.3 million sells and 1.4 million buys by COMM during January the register reveals around 630,000 sells and 680,000 buys associated with retail activity. Share prices retreated from $4.54 on Jan 1 to $3.38 on Jan 31
43
8.2.6.2 DOWNTICK TRENDS DURING JANUARY 2011 The table and chart compare broker Downtick involvements and broker selling involvements during January 2011. M&G had no presence in the market having completed their buying in December 2010.
The table and chart below contrast the involvement of brokers with being the purchases of Downticks in price during January 2011 and also compares broker buying profiles.
UBS SECURITIES - DOWNTICK DATA UBS Cross-trades reduced considerably in January 2011 to only 18.9% of all Downtick sales, and 15.8% % of their Downtick purchases. Around 86% of all UBS Downtick sales still involved trades of fewer than 400 shares but the average parcel for these trades fell to just 38 shares. The data clearly suggests trading designed to lower prices rather than genuine selling.
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% UBS, DMG, CSUI and MERL all exhibited anomalous selling activity throughout January where forcing prices lower appeared to be a higher priority than selling to receive maximum returns. The strong levels of UBS Downtick purchases was again the result of large volumes of small crossings that served to reduce prices. CITI & MSDW showed support for DTs as buyers DT Involvement as Sellers DT Involvement as Buyers
% of DTs as Sellers
% of All Selling
% of DTs as Buyers
% of All Buying
44
8.2.6.3.1 BROKERS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS TRADING TRENDS The following charts feature brokers whose trading exhibited non-genuine trading characteristics with a focus on reducing prices rather than attempting to achieve the best returns for clients.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 7 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 14 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 25 Jan 27 Jan 28 Jan 31 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan 24 Jan 25 Jan 27 Jan 28 Jan 31 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan 24 Jan 25 Jan 27 Jan 28 Jan 31 UBS Securities (DMG) Deutsche Bank (DMG) Credit Suisse (CSUI)
% of DTs as Sellers
% of All Selling
% of DTs as Sellers
% of All Selling
% of DTs as Sellers
% of All Selling
Trading throughout January showed the same anomalous trading patterns by the same group of brokers as previous trading periods. Share price manipulation is more plausible when assessing trading rather than attempting to apply a mantle of genuine trading. Brokers consistently sold the stock down to receive the lowest returns on sales and alternated from one day to the next in sharing prominent roles as sellers. The trading activity suggests collusion with strategies implemented to both limit price increases and to force prices lower - Judging by the share price slide in January the strategies were quite successful. COMMENTS 45
8.2.6.3.2 LESS PROMINENT BROKERS
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% Jan 5 Jan 7 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 14 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan 27 Jan 28 Jan 31 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 7 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 21 Jan 24 Jan 25 Jan 27 Jan 28 Jan 31 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% Jan 4 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 10 Jan 12 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 21 Jan 24 Jan 28 Jan 31 Macquarie Insto (MACQ) Merrill Lynch (MERL) Morgan Stanley (MSDW) The rotation of brokers as prominent sellers as far as Downticks in price are concerned is also seen to include brokers such as Macquarie, Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley. Commonwealth Securities is also responsible for large quantities of Downticks although it is not known what proportion relates to retail trades and what proportion relates to institutions, where targeted or manipulative selling might be an issue. The rotation of brokers as leading sellers of Downticks is evident in the list of leading daily sellers that follows. Day Broker DTs % Jan-04 DMG 41.7% Jan-05 UBSW 32.3% Jan-06 CITI 15.4% Jan-07 UBSW 24.4% Jan-10 COMM 31.0% Jan-11 COMM 23.5% Jan-12 DMG 19.2% Jan-13 DMG 23.1% Jan-14 UBSW 28.6% Jan-17 UBSW 34.6% Jan-18 UBSW 57.6% Jan-19 CITI 19.0% Jan-20 UBSW 12.1% Jan-21 MERL 36.0% Jan-24 MERL 36.0% Jan-25 DMG 32.3% Jan-27 DMG 27.3% Jan-28 UBSW 24.0% Jan-31 COMM 23.7%
46
Section 8.2.7
AUCTION TRENDS DURING NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, 2010 and JANUARY 2011
47
8.2.7.1.1 AUCTION TRENDS FOR NOVEMBER Leading Selling Brokers The brokers with the leading selling influences on CuDeco prices at auctions through November are summarized below. The standout feature is the dominance by Commonwealth Securities. The entities responsible for COMMs dominant profile require identification, as its status as a retail broker may have been used to hide orchestrated institutional share price manipulation. Nov 2010 Opening Auctions -Sellers Closing Auctions - Sellers Overall Broker Avg. Sells Attendance Index (AM) Avg. Sells Attendance Index (PM) INDEX COMM 35.5% 19 6.7393 25.2% 20 5.038 11.8 UBS 12.3% 21 2.5746 10.5% 17 1.7782 4.4 DMG 8.4% 17 1.4297 13.1% 22 2.8864 4.3 BBY 20.9% 7 1.4623 18.9% 12 2.2728 3.7 ETRD 16.1% 15 2.4165 7.2% 8 0.5784 3.0 AIEX 14.0% 10 1.402 9.8% 8 0.7808 2.2 CSUI 18.7% 8 1.496 2.0% 13 0.2535 1.7 MSDW 1.2% 8 0.0992 8.1% 17 1.3838 1.5 SBAR 17.6% 4 0.7032 16.1% 4 0.644 1.3 TPPM 5.5% 4 0.218 26.1% 4 1.0452 1.3 MACQ 4.0% 7 0.2793 7.3% 11 0.7975 1.1 CITI 5.0% 8 0.4 4.7% 13 0.6045 1.0 D2MX 11.4% 1 0.114 33.8% 2 0.676 0.8 MACP 10.5% 4 0.4192 20.4% 2 0.408 0.8 RBSM - - 0 71.8% 1 0.718 0.7 BELL 11.2% 2 0.224 17.3% 2 0.345 0.6 IMCP 4.8% 11 0.5324 0.8% 13 0.1014 0.6 GS 2.2% 3 0.0669 7.0% 6 0.4188 0.5 INST 11.5% 3 0.3459 2.7% 1 0.027 0.4 HUB24 4.5% 2 0.09 12.4% 2 0.248 0.3 MERL 1.2% 8 0.0944 3.6% 6 0.213 0.3 NAL 15.7% 1 0.157 11.9% 1 0.119 0.3
The chart compares broker selling influences in opening and closing auctions during November 2010.
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Opening Auctions
Closing Auctions
Combined
Index Values A level of dominance that requires investigation 48
8.2.7.1.2 AUCTION TRENDS FOR NOVEMBER Leading Buying Brokers Buying throughout auctions in November was distributed more evenly than the selling, with Morgan Stanley the leading broker. MSDWs leading role is expected due to their strong buying for M&G throughout the month. Further suspicion about Commonwealth Securities activity arises from their low level of crossings (16.3%) during auctions despite having access to large volumes of buying and selling.
The chart compares November buying activity during opening and closing auctions.
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Dominant buying by MSDW, COMM, BBY and DMG, and dominant selling by COMM, UBS, DMG and BBY may effectively involve Wash Trades if the same entities are spreading their orders across all brokers.
Opening Auctions
Closing Auctions
Combined
Index Values 49
8.2.7.2.1 AUCTION TRENDS FOR DECEMBER Leading Selling Brokers The brokers with the leading selling influences at auctions through December are summarized below. Commonwealth Securities is once again seen to be the most influential broker as a seller during auctions, closely followed by UBS Securities and Deutsche Bank. The high attendance rates of the 3 brokers generally, and by Credit Suisse and Goldman Sachs in closing auctions, gives further cause for concern. The situation can only be clarified through audits where the focus needs to be on identifying those responsible for controlling auctions and on whose behalf they were acting.
Index Values OF NOTE: - The leading selling influences by COMM, UBS, BBY and DMG over all other brokers - The dominance by UBS in closing auctions - The dominance by BBY in closing auctions as well as the influences of GS and MSDW in closing auctions - The variations in CSUI trading patterns, with large sales and fewer appearances in opening auctions contrasting with small sales and frequent appearances in closing auctions. 50
8.2.7.2.2 AUCTION TRENDS FOR DECEMBER Leading Buying Brokers Buying throughout auctions in December again saw Morgan Stanley as the leading buying broker and by a wider margin than during November. UBS, COMM and DMG again had significant involvements as well.
The chart compares December buying activity by brokers during opening and closing auctions but once again it is the entities responsible for the transactions that need identification. Buying and selling by much the same the same interests, across all leading buying and selling brokers, would mean that the market was interminably compromised.
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Opening Auctions
Closing Auctions
Combined
Index Values 51
8.2.7.3 AUCTION ACTIVITY VERSUS NORMAL TRADING November and December 2010 The charts compare the selling (and buying) profiles of brokers in normal trading during November and December to the selling (and buying) profiles of brokers during auctions. Market shares are based on the volumes of sales in normal trading (or in auctions) compared to the total volumes of sales in normal trading (or in auctions). Increases in trading activity during auctions may be suggesting manipulative activity. Such instances have been highlighted. As a general trend with CuDeco trading, reductions in activity by institutional brokers during auctions are generally compensated by increases by other institutional brokers. However it is the identity of broker clients that hold the key to assessing any manipulative behaviour; particularly if the influence of a major trading entity happens to be dispersed across a wide range of brokers. Wide ranging anomalies regarding CuDeco require such assessments to be made in order to properly assess what has taken place.
Nov 2010
SELLING MARKET SHARES
Nov 2010
BUYING MARKET SHARES Sell Broker Index Normal Selling All Auction Selling
Broker Citigroup Global (CITI) is seen to have adapted a high profile as a buyer in auctions during December which corresponded to reduced activity by Morgan Stanley following the completion of M&G buying. It appears that CITI stood aside during the accumulation program conducted for M&G. 52
8.2.7.4.1 AUCTION TRENDS FOR JANUARY 2011 Leading Selling Brokers The brokers with the leading selling influences at auctions through January are summarized below. Commonwealth Securities is once again seen to be the most influential broker as a seller during auctions and by a very wide margin. Also influential were BBY, DMG and UBS. The high attendance rates by Credit Suisse and Goldman Sachs in closing auctions is again noted. Morgan Stanley was also active in closing auctions despite their reduced involvement in the market following the completion of M&Gs buying.
The chart compares broker selling influences across opening and closing auctions during January 2011
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0
Opening Auctions
Closing Auctions
Combined
Index Values OF NOTE: - The leading selling influences by COMM, BBY, DMG and UBS over all other brokers - The dominance by UBS,COMM, DMG, MSDW and GS in closing auctions - INSTs prominence in a few opening auctions and no presence in closing auctions. 53
8.2.7.4.2 AUCTION TRENDS FOR JANUARY Leading Buying Brokers COMM was also prominent as a buyer across auctions in January, although with access to both buyers and sellers crossings only represented 24.1% of sales and 15.3% of buys. It might be expected that crossings would have run at much higher levels. DMG, UBS, and MSDW were the other prominent buyers at auctions. The same brokers always being prominent as buyers and sellers focusses attention on the large amount of non-genuine trading /Wash Trades likely to be taking place in controlling auction outcomes.
The chart compares January buying activity by brokers during opening and closing auctions.
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0
Opening Auctions
Closing Auctions
Combined
Index Values 54
8.2.7.5 AUCTION ACTIVITY VERSUS NORMAL TRADING January 2011 The tables provided compare the selling (and buying) profiles of brokers in normal trading during January to the selling (and buying) profiles of brokers during auctions. Increases in trading activity during auctions may be suggesting manipulative activity. Such instances have been highlighted.
Jan2011
SELLING MARKET SHARES
Jan2011
BUYING MARKET SHARES Sell Broker Index Normal Selling Auction Selling
Broker BBY was particularly active as both a buyer and a seller in auctions, as were Morgan Stanley (MSDW),and Deutsche Bank (DMG). Citigroup Global (CITI ) on the other hand had reduced buying and selling profiles in auctions compared to their market shares in normal trading. The identities of the clients being serviced by these brokers is required if a proper view of trading is to be achieved and the extent of cartel type activity or Wash Trades is to be gauged correctly.
55
Section 8.2.8 UPTICK TRENDS Research into trading has looked into Downticks and auction pricing which provide some critical insights about the brokers who have been prominent in setting/controlling prices. It is also of interest to assess Uptick trends against the directions outlined by the High Court. i.e., Genuine sellers seek to achieve the highest possible prices for their shares while genuine buyers look to pay the minimum to secure their requirements. In regard to Upticks in price, it logically follows that: Genuine buyers would prefer to avoid Upticks in price as that would mean that they are generally paying increased prices for their purchases. Data trends where the proportion of Upticks generated by brokers is far greater than an entities share of buying are therefore highly dubious, as the buying entity appears to be targeting higher prices rather than looking to minimize their purchase outlays.
Sellers that are able to achieve large numbers of sales associated with Upticks in prices, compared to their selling profile in the market, also attract suspicion. It is not reasonable to expect small amounts of selling to nearly always attract increased prices without collusion being involved between the buying entity and the selling entity.
Data trends that consistently suggest collusion appear to manifest through the design of high frequency trading algorithms where, again, preferential order execution seems able to connect preferred buyers with preferred sellers. Charting broker Upticks as buyers against their share of all buying can therefore highlight where dubious trading is taking place. Similarly charting broker Upticks as sellers against their share of all selling can also reveal where dubious trading has occurred. The premise used to assess trading is that it can be reasonably expected that the numbers of Upticks recorded by brokers as buyers ought to be commensurate with the levels of buying undertaken. Where there are strong imbalances day after day, the situation requires close scrutiny as non-genuine trading is likely to be responsible and non-genuine trading activity usually goes hand in hand with share price manipulation.
56
8.2.8.1 UPTICK TRENDS DURING OCTOBER 2010: October 1 through October 28, 2010 The table and chart compare broker Uptick involvements (UTs) and broker buying involvements during October 2010 prior to the M&G Group accumulating shares. Imbalances between the numbers of Upticks recorded by brokers and the buying market shares of brokers draw attention to dubious trading behaviours
Uptick Sales versus Selling Volumes: Period October 1, through October 28, 2010
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% UBS, DMG and MACQ were associated with anomalous trends where minor volumes of buying sought higher prices. The trends are entrenched into nearly a months trading so are not transient events Small amounts of selling by UBS, MSDW and CITI has consistently resulted in increased prices which again suggests a non-genuine orchestrated approach to trading. UBS SECURITIES - UPTICK DATA Cross trades represented 47.7% of all UBS Uptick purchases, and 49.8% of all UBS Uptick sales. Around 97% of all UBS Uptick purchases involved trades of fewer than 400 shares but the average sized parcel for all of these buy trades was only 68 shares. The trading data overwhelmingly suggests unorthodox trading behaviours designed to impact prices rather than to genuinely buy and sell shares for clients, particularly as UBS trading algorithms have sought to receive less for sales and to pay more for purchases. The behaviour conflicts with principles of genuine trading as referred to by the High Court in its recent decision. Uptick Involvements as Sellers Uptick Involvements as Buyers
% of UTs as Buyers
% of All Buying
% of UTs as Sellers
% of All Selling
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8.2.8.2 UPTICK TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH M&Gs BUYING DURING NOVEMBER 2010 The table and chart compare broker Uptick involvements and broker buying involvements during November 2010, a month where M&G strongly accumulated shares. Again, imbalances between the numbers of Upticks recorded by brokers compared to their buying market shares, highlight dubious trading behaviours.
Uptick Sales versus Selling Volumes: November 2010
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% Highly anomalous trading by UBS resulted in low levels of buying being associated with disproportionately large numbers of Upticks. Genuine buyers tend to want to pay less than the prevailing rate, not more. Comparitively small amounts of selling by UBS and CITI fortuitously resulted in increased prices. Rather than good luck however, it was more likely that trading algorithms were responsible for orchestrated trades between designated sellers and designated buyers. The situation again suggests collusion Uptick Involvements as Buyers Uptick Involvements as Sellers
% of UTs as Sellers
% of All Selling
% of UTs as Buyers
% of All Buying
Yet the strongly motivated buying by MSDW for M&G tended to avoid Upticks in price. 58
8.2.8.3 UBS SECURITIES - UPTICK DATA
Cross-trades represented 51.6% of all UBS Uptick purchases, and 52.4% of all UBS Uptick sales. Around 95% of all UBS Uptick purchases involved trades of fewer than 400 shares but the average parcel size for all of their buy trades was only 63 shares.
COMMENT The trading data overwhelmingly suggests unorthodox trading with UBS algorithms consistently managing to receive less for sales and to pay more for purchases. The trading is at odds with what the High Court has decreed regarding genuine trading. Viz., The forces of genuine supply and demand are those which are created in a market by buyers whose purpose is to acquire at the lowest available price and sellers whose purpose is to sell at the highest realisable price <CLICK: Reference Link>. It is also at odds with a common sense perspective in regard to how fair markets should operate. A broker with access to the most efficient and state-of-the-art trading platforms engaging in trading behaviours that are at odds with how markets are meant to operate, is likely to be providing strong clues as to how share price manipulation takes place in our financial markets. It would appear that trading that equates to share price manipulation is intricately woven into the design of sophisticated trading algorithms, and require multiple brokers running similar programs to achieve trading objectives. Unfortunately, dubious trading objectives that involve collusion between brokers for implementation is wreaking havoc across the entire ASX by advantaging sophisticated investors over all others. When combined with manipulative short selling, their trading is destroying or limiting the prospects of companies and eroding the superannuation holdings and investments of the nations workers and retirees.
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Section 8.2.9 AN OVERVIEW OF FOUR MONTHS OF TRADING IN CuDECO
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8.2.9.1 A FOUR MONTH OVERVIEW: October 2010 through January 2011 The table and chart compare broker Downtick involvements and broker selling involvements during the entire period from October 2010 through to the end of January 2011. Importantly, trends evident in the charts are the result of entrenched trading behaviours over a period of four months.
Downtick Purchases versus Buying Volumes: October 2010 through January 2011
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% UBS, DMG and MERL are seen to be associated with anomalous selling trends for the entire 4 month period The strong levels of UBS Downtick purchases is generally the result of large volumes of small crossings that resulted in reduced prices. CITI s fortuitous buying of Downticks over a 4 month period is likely to reflect more on collaborative trading than good fortune.
% of DTs as Sellers
% of All Selling
% of DTs as Buyers
% of All Buying
DT Involvement as Sellers DT Involvement as Buyers UBS SECURITIES DOWNTICK DATA Cross trades represented 45.9% of all UBS Downtick sales, and 55.3% % of all UBS Downtick purchases. Around 88% of all UBS Downtick sales involved trades of fewer than 400 shares but the average parcel size for all of their sell trades was only 85 shares. Again the data overwhelmingly suggests trading behaviours designed to reduce prices rather than to achieve the best prices for clients. 61
8.2.9.2 BROKER TRADING OVER FOUR MONTHS: October 2010 through January 2011 The table summarizes the trading of the leading brokers over the four-month period.
OBSERVATIONS The leading seller Commonwealth Securities with 19.1% of all selling was responsible for only 12.4% of Downticks, yet UBS Securities with a selling market share of 5.3% was responsible for 24.5% of all Downticks. It is a highly irregular outcome that requires investigation. The anomalous data focusses attention on the so-called strategic advantages offered by algorithms and suggests that sophisticated clients are advantaged by superior technology and trading systems and concessions granted by the ASX, they are also advantaged by an ability to set and maintain artificial prices and to manipulate the market. Any strategic advantage of being able to create the maximum amount of selling pressure through the minimum volume of shares sold, can only be explained in terms of market manipulation, as genuine sellers would want to maximize returns, not minimize them. The 6.2 million sales and 4.2 million buys grouped as Others are likely to be associated with sophisticated investors/institutions as the numbers are required to reconcile institutional trading; furthermore, as the short selling on August 9, 2011 revealed <LINK: ASIC Complaint 8.1 -Refer Pg. 106>, the institutional presence infiltrates the activities of practically all brokers. It makes for an extremely compromised market.
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8.2.9.3 REGISTRY CHANGES OVER FOUR MONTHS The following table provides a breakdown of shareholder registry activity over the four-month period. ENTITY OFF ON NET Broker Nominees 14,031,369 13,231,575 -799,794 Corporate Entities 3,758,039 3,314,402 -443,637 Professional Funds 481,658 391,509 -90,149 Institutions 35,732,297 46,753,142 11,020,845 Retail Investors 27,810,467 18,653,205 -9,157,262 Totals 81,813,830 82,343,833 530,003
Categories Used: Institutional shareholders: include National Nominees, HSBC Nominees, Citicorp Nominees and JP Morgan Nominees (2 entities). Corporate Shareholders: include large private companies, and entities such as Queensland Investment Corporation, UBS Wealth Management, etc. which appear as shareholders on many ASX company registers. Funds: include the likes of BT Portfolio Management, RBX Dexia Services, Bond Street Custodians, etc., all of whom also appear on the registers of many ASX entities. Broker Nominees: include the entities used by brokers to facilitate the share flows resulting from short selling and short covering. The buying and selling that they represent shows up in the institutional holdings that are associated with stock lending. Deducting the Broker Nominees settlement share flows results in registry movements of 67.78 million OFF the register and 69.11 million shares ON to the register as far as shareholders are concerned. The difference represents shares that would be held in broker settlement accounts at the end of the period. OFF ON REGISTER less Broker Nominees 67,782,461 69,112,258 INSTITUTIONS 35,732,297 46,753,142 52.7% 67.6% ALL OTHER 32,050,164 22,359,116 47.3% 32.4%
Institutions represented 52.7% of all selling (OFF movements) and 67.4% of all buying (ON Movements) that impacted the register. Retailers and others represented the balance. A very major concern is the large number of trades that didnt make it to the register as shown below. OFF ON REGISTER less Broker Nominees 67,782,461 69,112,258 SELLS BUYS BROKER TRADES 97,679,248 97,679,248 MISSING TRADES 29,896,787 28,566,990 31% 29%
Any assessement of trading over the four-month period needs to be able to satisfactorily account for the impact on the market of almost 30 million buys and sells that didnt actually impact the register. The trading data strongly suggests that an artificial trading environment accompanied the accumulation of shares by M&G. The situation requires a thorough investigation. 63
8.2.9.4 TRANSPARENCY ISSUES Major issues concerning the ASX market place include a lack of transparency that exists concerning trading and the amount of flexibility associated with trading and settlements. It makes trading particularly advantageous for sophisticated investors who are able to exploit the situation. Trading flexibility issues include: Orders by sophisticated investors are dispersed amongst large numbers of brokers, thereby extending their presence widely across the market. Transactions often net out and dont impact the register, thereby resulting in minor changes to beneficial ownership, especially through critical/volatile trading periods. The activity raises the possibility of entities trading back and forth between themselves or their preferred trading partners and fixing prices while doings so. Cost structures that enable large numbers of small orders by sophisticated investors to be processed at minimal cost compared to retail investors who would pay a fixed charge for each transaction. Trading algorithms specifically designed to advantage sophisticated investors over all other trading participants and which impact the market to generate artificial trading environments. The ability to sell-down stocks on the ASX to trading affiliates and to recover the shares off market by broker to broker exchanges (i.e. Dark Pools) or other off-market adjustments. An ad hoc system of short selling used extensively to manipulate share prices. Short selling into the market has led to chronic undervaluations in stocks across the ASX yet exposed open short positions are invariably managed without price discovery. The management process often involves off-market adjustments between parties who are likely to be colluding with their trading. Institutions being able to trade anonymously and with the brokers involved not identified on the register. On the other hand retail trading is completely transparent. It means that powerful interests can trade anonymously and without accountability for any impact they have on the market.
The widespread flexibility within the system, whether it be the trading system, the system of settlements, the system of securities lending or even the system of regulation, provides enormous scope for interests who are inclined to exploit the situation. In doing so unfair advantages are secured at the expense of all other participants. There can be no doubt that the extent of non-transparency that exists provides enormous scope for deception and engaging in illegal trading practices without entities being made accountable for their trading actions.
The extent of non-transparency regarding trading for the period October 2010 through January 2011 has been quantified below.
NOTE: Institutional trading is regarded as non transparent as the brokers responsible for trading (which on occasions includes practically all of them) are not identified on the register. Missing Trades represent buying & selling that didnt impact the register during the period. Other Trades mostly comprise retail trades and trades by private companies that are fully disclosed on the register along with the brokers responsible.
ASX ACTIVITY Oct 2010 to Jan 2011 CuDeco Trading Non Transparent: 72% Transparent 28% 30% 42% 64
8.2.9.5 COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES TRADING Commonwealth Securities was the leading broker over the period October 2010 through January 2011 by a very wide margin. Its overall market share (by total value of trades) was 17.9% and compares to 7.7% for second placed Deutsche Bank. Retail trades within Commonwealth Securities represented around 7.8% of the 97.7 million shares traded over the period leaving 10.1% of COMMs market share attributable to institutions. It means that COMM was both the leading retail broker and the leading institutional broker. The breakdown between the two categories of investors within Commonwealth Securities (COMM) is provided in the table: Sells Buys COMM Broker Trades 18,678,502 16,602,356 OFF ON COMM Retail Activity 8,289,531 6,927,173 Sells Buys Other Trades 10,388,971 9,675,183
56% 58% The broker trades identified as Other Trades are either Wash Trades that didnt make it to the register or they represent institutional trades. It suggests that a majority of trades (56% of sells and 58% of buys) have taken place with no way of knowing, other than through audits, who was responsible for them. Their impact on the market and whether their trades supported artificial pricing levels needs to be properly established. The extent of institutional involvement can be further clarified by comparing the trades put through the market by COMM to the registry share movements of COMM retail clients. The following tables compare on a month by month basis, the sell trades by Commonwealth Securities against monthly share flows OFF the CuDeco register by Commonwealth Securities retail clients. October 2010 COMM Broker Trading (Iress Data) Registry Transactions of COMM Retail Clients Parcel Size Number of Sells % of all Sell Transactions Number of Sells % of all Sell Transactions <=400 shares 612 39% 11 4% 401 to 1000 shares 151 10% 52 19% 1000 to 5000 shares 454 29% 125 45% > 5001 shares 338 22% 90 32% Totals 1,555 100% 278 100%
The number of small sell trades for fewer than 400 shares (i.e. 612) in October was far greater than the registry transactions corresponding to parcels fewer than 400 shares by shareholders dealing through COMM (i.e. 11). The excess small trades represent the algo trades of sophisticated investors, not retailers. The same pattern occured across all parcel sizes with the number of sell trades in the market mostly representing the activity of sophisticated investors/institutions rather than retail investors who deal through COMM. The data provides powerful insights into trading given that Commonwealth Securities dominated all auction markets as well, and was by far the most dominant broker in all trading.
The trading patterns for November, December and January were similar as shown below. November 2010 COMM Broker Trading COMM Registry Transactions Parcel Size Number of Sells % of all Sell Transactions Number of Sells % of all Sell Transactions <=400 shares 438 20.7% 29 5.8% 401 to 1000 shares 290 13.7% 99 19.7% 1000 to 5000 shares 882 41.7% 233 46.4% > 5001 shares 505 23.9% 141 28.1% Totals 2,115 100% 502 100%
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December 2010 COMM Broker Trading COMM Registry Transactions Parcel Size Number of Sells % of all Sell Transactions Number of Sells % of all Sell Transactions <=400 shares 371 35.2% 29 8.3% 401 to 1000 shares 153 14.5% 84 24.0% 1000 to 5000 shares 375 35.6% 172 49.1% > 5001 shares 155 14.7% 65 18.6% Totals 1,054 100% 350 100%
January 2011 COMM Broker Trading COMM Registry Transactions Parcel Size Number of Sells % of all Sell Transactions Number of Sells % of all Sell Transactions <=400 shares 339 45.7% 14 8.4% 401 to 1000 shares 122 16.4% 38 22.8% 1000 to 5000 shares 231 31.1% 83 49.7% > 5001 shares 50 6.7% 32 19.2% Totals 742 100% 167 100%
4 Month Summary Broker Trading COMM Registry Transactions Parcel Size Number of Sells % of all Sell Transactions Number of Sells % of all Sell Transactions <=400 shares 1760 32.2% 83 6.4% 401 to 1000 shares 716 13.1% 273 21.0% 1000 to 5000 shares 1942 35.5% 613 47.3% > 5001 shares 1048 19.2% 328 25.3% Totals 5466 100% 1297 100%
8.2.9.6 OTHER RETAIL BROKERS The other two leading retail brokers were Etrade and AIEX. Estimates for retail trading versus institutional trading by these two brokers for the four-month period are as follows. Sells Buys
Institutions are seen to be extremely influential within retail brokers where their activity is conveniently camouflaged amongst retail trades. The data provides a strong incentive to investigate via audits the dominant auction selling by Commonwealth Securities. There is the strong likelihood that institutions flooded the market with buying and selling, thus interacting with the other dominant institutional brokers such as DMG, UBS and BBY to ensure control over prices. Such a scenario would represent an extremely artificial trading environment with ramifications for all ASX trading. Appendix 2 tracks the involvement of institutions within the three leading retail brokers throughout 2010.
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8.2.9.7 CROSS TRADES: October 2010 through January 2011 Commonwealth Securities was also noted for the large volumes of crossings it facilitated over the period. Institutional investors acting within COMM, perhaps associated with M&G interests, may have been scooping up sales by retail clients as they became confused by the high levels of churn and the continuous waves of selling that occurred despite price rises. As already demonstrated in Section 8.2.9.3, large volumes of selling was non-genuine and either didnt result in beneficial changes to ownership or didnt impact the register. If institutional buying took advantage of retail selling within Commonwealth Securities in amongst the high volumes of trading churn generated, then the broker has in effect contributed to the demise of its retail investors by facilitating dubious trading practices in favour of its larger clients. The extents of broker crossings over the four-month period are quantified below. Broker Number of Crossings Average Parcel Volume of Crossings Volume of all Sales Crossings cf Sales% UBS 5,502 162 892,148 8,157,807 10.9% DMG 1,856 626 1,162,521 7,998,929 14.5% COMM 1,385 2,714 3,759,058 18,678,502 20.1% CITI 523 989 517,502 4,996,953 10.4% MSDW 437 455 198,973 1,660,456 12.0% MERL 218 531 115,812 1,969,193 5.9% ETRD 167 3,459 577,594 7,448,115 7.8% CSUI 161 1,637 263,527 1,771,482 14.9% GS 137 3,328 455,872 2,376,978 19.2% MACQ 135 1,984 267,836 3,314,718 8.1%
The other highly anomalous feature of crossing data is the large number of small crossings put through the market by UBS Securities. The proportion of crossings under 100 shares was 56%, with 93% of all UBS crossings featuring parcels under 400 shares in size. The plethora of small crossings, many of which were used to force Downticks in price, again demonstrates manipulative control over prices rather than the authentic transfer of shares between genuine sellers and genuine buyers. Deutsche Bank trading invokes similar concerns where 60% of crossings were for 100 shares or less and 79% of DMG crossings were 200 shares or less. 67
8.2.9.8.1 BROKERS ACTING FOR THE M&G GROUP Appendix 1 lists the broker trading data for when M&G were active in the market accumulating shares. An abbreviated summary of the net-buying and net-selling by leading brokers for November and December is provided below. The brokers mainly acting on behalf of M&G each day are shown highlighted. M&G Buys M&G Buys M&G Buys M&G Buys M&G Buys M&G Buys Nov 1 1,035,163 Nov 2 80,457 Nov 5 1,000,000 Nov 8 949,822 Nov 9 687,554 Nov 10 362,624
Net Buys MSDW 952,687 COMM 375,516 MSDW 1,002,906 MSDW 928,671 MSDW 697,184 MSDW 337,657 ETRD 153,990 ETRD 100,106 SBAR 125,000 COMM 293,442 COMM 123,123 ETRD 49,870 AIEX 57,568 MSDW 48,817 INST 59,673 AIEX 120,775 AIEX 31,583 MACP 35,600 SUSQ 49,271 MERL 32,961 TPPM 36,035 RBSM 42,521 ETRD 29,318 GS 31,436 ORDS 36617 MACQ 24,964 CSUI 23,344 MERL 40,508 CITI 16,371 COMM 25,583 CITI 33,471 WILS 7,900 CITI 19,955 TPPM 36,195 RBSM 13,205 AIEX 23,286
The trading data reveals that while MSDW was the broker mainly used to acquire shares for M&G, brokers CITI and JPM were also directly involved. The acquisition of shares is seen to be a collaborative effort by these three but the trading churn by a large number of other brokers also appears to be an integral part of M&Gs trading strategy. It is a strategy that looks to have resulted in a compromised, and somewhat artificial market. 68
NOTE: The NET buying by the active broker for M&G doesnt equate to number of shares purchased for M&G because the active broker would have bought and sold shares for other clients as well.
8.2.9.8.3 COMPARISON OF TRADING M&G Buying Day Volumes versus Non-Buying Day Volumes The market activity accompanying the buying by M&G provides a clear indication that the M&G buying was a stage managed event, particularly when daily trading is separated into M&G non-buying days and M&G buying days as shown below. DAYS WHEN M&G WERENT BUYING M&G BUYING DAYS
DAY (2010) ASX VOLUME M&G BUYS DAY ASX VOLUME M&G BUYS Nov 3 786,416 0
Oct-29 5,705,475 884,380 Nov 4 753,188 0
Nov-01 5,477,122 1,035,163 Nov 18 1,982,155 0
Nov-02 2,504,277 80,457 Nov 23 1,223,409 0
Nov-05 3,824,759 1,000,000 Nov 25 659,029 0
Nov-08 3,347,225 949,822 Nov 26 465,337 0
Nov-09 2,005,022 687,554 Nov 29 429,877 0
Nov-10 1,622,500 362,624 Nov 30 534,379 0
Nov-11 826,528 20,559 Dec 1 557,390 0
Nov-12 2,855,670 550,384 Dec 3 1,466,104 0
Nov-15 2,215,093 394,732 Dec 6 964,300 0
Nov-16 3,190,583 650,439 Dec 7 771,199 0
Nov-17 2,901,469 424,561 Dec 8 524,671 0
Nov-19 1,812,197 747,000 Dec 9 513,111 0
Nov-22 717,877 253,000 Dec 15 902,700 0
Nov-24 2,379,847 500,000 Dec 16 670,400 0
Dec-02 2,302,622 500,000 Dec 17 601,600 0
Dec-10 799,691 237,257 Dec 20 468,400 0
Dec-13 715,144 226,789 Dec 21 342,900 0
Dec-14 2,591,660 746,737
Totals 14,616,565 0
Totals 47,794,761 10,251,458 Average 769,293 0
Average 2,515,514 539,550
Trading volumes spiked remarkably when M&G were buyers. It suggests other brokers traded with knowledge of M&Gs intentions and were possibly facilitating the accumulation by supplying trading churn to camouflage what was taking place. 69
8.2.9.8.4 COMMENT
8.2.9.8.5 WASH TRADE ACTIVITY FOR NOVEMBER 2010 Despite regular updates by M&G via substantial shareholder notices from November 2, their on-market buying almost always attracted high volumes of non-genuine selling that didnt impact the register. The effect was to create confusion and a sense of urgency for holders to take advantage of prices before they retreated. Large volumes of selling avoided the broker buying for M&G and found its way to buyers representing much the same interests as the selling entities. The high levels of non-genuine Wash Trades flooding the market would no doubt have been facilitated by the trading algorithms used by entities who faciliated the M&G accumulation. The November trading and registry data is summarized below with broker nominee share flows again not included as they generally represent settlement share flows associated with securities lending. The associated buying and selling generally shows up in the holdings of sophisticated investors. NOVEMBER ASX ACTIVITY REGISTRY MOVEMENTS REGISTRY Vs ASX Activity SELLS BUYS OFF ON RATIO Shortfall
42,533,272 42,533,272 25,816,244 26,361,264 61% 39% A key concern about the trading place is that a genuine buyer standing in the market to acquire shares shouldnt result in a dramatic increase in trading volumes. Yet a dramatic increase in trading volumes was a stand-out feature of the accumulation by M&G. A single broker buying stock and then selling some to take profits into a rising market before repeating the process when the market settled, would be a reasonable approach to building a holding. However having multiple brokers involved, all acting for the same beneficial interest leads to a rigged/compromised market. It also means means that the market is non-genuine and pricing levels are artificially set and maintained. The confusing market signals generated by such trading activity would have provided an unfair advantage to the accumulating entitity. For example, the wall of selling accompanying price increases would most certainly have panicked some holders into disposing of shares yet much of the selling wasnt genuine as it represented Wash Trades or trades that that didnt impact the register. The following observations all raise concerns about the market activity that occurred during November and December 2010 while M&G were in the market buying shares. As mentioned, average daily trading volumes increased from 769,293 shares when M&G werent in the market to 2,515,514 shares when they were, which represents a 227% increase; Logically, it doesnt follow that an anonymous buyer in the market should cause volumes to spike. Yet that is what occurred on October 29 and November 1 prior to M&G informing the market about their buying which occurred on November 2; The data suggests that entities were trading on October 29 and November 1 with inside knowledge about the buying taking place by M&G; The data also suggests that entities acting in a collusive manner were trading large volumes back and forth between themselves while M&G were accumulating shares from genuine sellers, with much of the trading being non-genuine and not resulting in changes in ownership. The effect was to distort trading and to unsettle the market. The trading behaviours need to be viewed in the context that Wash Trades are illegal and trading designed to set and maintain artificial prices is also illegal.
A substantial volume of buying and selling didnt impact the register which casts huge doubts about the integrity of trading. 70
To more accurately contrast broker activity with the impact it has had on the register, the data should be adjusted to allow for T+3 settlements. Registry data for November (i.e. from Nov 1 to Nov 30) ought to compare the broker activity that took place late October and which was settled in November (i.e. 27, 28 & 29 October) and shouldnt include the broker activity that took place late November and which was settled in early December (i.e., 26, 27, & 30 November). Adjusting for T+3 settlements and again ignoring broker nominee share movements the revised table for November is as follows. NOVEMBER ASX ACTIVITY REGISTRY MOVEMENTS REGISTER Vs ASX ACTIVITY SELLS BUYS OFF ON RATIO Shortfall 48,425,421 48,425,421 25,816,244 26,361,264 54% 46%
It is apparent that a very substantial amount of buying and selling during November didnt make it to the register coinciding with M&G accumulating a major stake in the Company. The missing trades amounted to around 22.5 million sells and 22.0 million buys. The trend in November accompanying M&Gs buying is seen to be remarkably similar to what occurred in August 2010 although the number of Wash Trades in August was elevated even further. The table below summarizes ASX Activity and Registry Activity for August 2010. AUGUST ASX ACTIVITY REGISTRY MOVEMENTS REGISTRY Vs ASX Activity SELLS BUYS OFF ON RATIO CHANGE 93,327,086 93,327,086 43,682,825 41,680,910 46% -54%
During August 2010, non-genuine buying and selling of the order of 50 million shares washed back and forth between related entities, dramatically affecting the share price but not impacting the register. The entities responsible for such aberrant trading data still need to be identifed and their trading properly assessed. Almost half of the ASX buys and sells in November didnt make it to the register. More than half of the ASX buys and sells in Aug 2010 didnt make it to the register 71
COMMENTS The data demonstrates the impact that Wash Trades and short selling have had on trading where prices have generally been subdued despite a strong buying presence in the market. For example, on November 19, M&G accounted for 41% of all buying but the share price fell on the day. Price falls on other days also demonstrate the control over pricing levels by entities likely to be supporting the accumulation by M&G. Very few days resulted in the share price closing near its highs, despite M&Gs strong buying . Closing prices on average were 6 cents below the daily highs.
8.2.9.8.7 NOVEMBER TRADING DATA FOR WHEN M&G WERENT BUYING Trading Day ASX Volume M&G Buying Closing Price Close Below Daily High Daily Change Days High Days Low Daily Range Nov-03 786,416 0 $2.52 $0.11 -$0.09 $2.63 $2.51 $0.12 Nov-04 753,188 0 $2.53 $0.05 $0.01 $2.58 $2.51 $0.07 Nov-18 1,982,155 0 $3.94 $0.23 -$0.03 $4.17 $3.87 $0.30 Nov-23 1,223,409 0 $3.64 $0.24 -$0.27 $3.88 $3.60 $0.28 Nov-25 659,029 0 $3.76 $0.20 -$0.04 $3.96 $3.75 $0.21 Nov-26 465,337 0 $3.81 $0.06 $0.05 $3.87 $3.71 $0.16 Nov-29 429,877 0 $3.73 $0.06 -$0.08 $3.79 $3.67 $0.12 Nov-30 534,379 0 $3.72 $0.11 -$0.01 $3.83 $3.68 $0.15 Share prices tended to fall in the absence of M&G buying which may be considered a normal reaction to price increases. However the extent of Wash Trades and short selling on days that M&G werent active are likely to have had an unfair impact on prices as well. 72
8.2.9.8.8 SHORT SELLING DATA The buying by M&G was accompanied by an escalation in the volumes of short selling supplied to the market, with most short sales generally covered each day judging by ASICs open short data. To be able to heavily short sell, knowing that the sales would be easily covered again suggests high levels of collusion between brokers. The high levels of shorting and short covering accompanying M&Gs buying, with minimal impact to the register, again focusses attention on the non-genuine nature of trading.
M&G ABSENT FROM THE MARKET M&G ACTIVE IN THE MARKET
10.2 million purchases by M&G were matched by 5.3 million short sales.
During November, Open Short Positions increased from 395,991 shares (Oct 29) to 1,114,284 shares (Nov 30) coinciding with M&G doing most of their buying. M&G obviously had the view that CDU shares were already cheap, not overvalued, hence their decision to pursue a significant stake in the company through on-market buying. Shorting by interests associated with M&G is therefore seen to be manipulative in intent rather than seeking genuine price discovery.
Any attempts to shape the market through trading churn or manipulative short selling, in support of an energetic buying campaign, needs to be viewed in context with the High Courts clarifications on creating and maintaining an artificial market.
There is the possibility that Interests separate to M&G may have seen the M&G buying as folly and shorted accordingly, which might also explain the high level of shorts. However, genuine shorting would have impacted the register whereas the overwhelming trend during November was for large volumes of trading churn that didnt make it to the register.
As the M&G buying dissipated during December, Open Positions decreased from the Nov 30 high back to 692,971 by Dec 31. The data suggests that increased levels of shorting and increased levels of Wash Trades were an integral part of strategies designed to support M&Gs buying in the market. Such activity also suggests collusion between entities in support of M&Gs buying as the covering of shorts had zero price impact.. 73
8.2.9.8.9 TRADING TRENDS: October 2010 to January 2011 Despite the short selling and the high volumes of back and forth trading churn supplied to the market as M&G accumulated shares, prices eventually recovered to the levels seen prior to the August 18 resource upgrade. The price increases suggest a reasonably tight register but also, that events surrounding the August resource announcement resulted in a grossly undervalued and somewhat misinformed market.
PRICE CHART versus DAILY TRADING VOLUMES versus DAILY SHORT SALES 2010
M&G BUYING Pre-Jorc Aug 15 $3.79 Daily Trading Volumes accompanying M&G Buying PRICES TRADING VOLUMES Daily Shorting Volumes accompanying M&G Buying NOTE: Different scale to trading volumes SHORT SALE VOLUMES Trading volumes fell sharply after M&G ceased buying Short selling tends to mirror trading volumes suggesting that it is a manipulative ploy accompanying trading with very little to do with fair price discovery. The same could be said of the large volumes of small crossings used to lower prices. 74
8.2.9.8.10 GENERAL COMMENTS An examination of the trading data accompanying the accumulation by M&G reveals that the buying was very much a stage-managed event with a range of institutional brokers aiding the process. The volume spikes accompanying each day of buying are the first sign that brokers were combining with their endeavours to help to shape the market so that shares would be made available to M&G. Logically it would make sense if the broker acting for M&G released shares back into the market to dampen expectations as shares were being accumulated. However given the large number of shares required to be bought, selling, as well as buying, may have telegraphed their intentions to the wider market and slowed down attempts to accumulate shares. Instead non-genuine selling looks to have been put through other brokers perhaps to dampen expectations, while M&G bought large volumes of shares.The problem with such an approach is that collusive trading with entities dispensing buy and sell orders through a network of brokers in support of accumulation by an associate, very much has the look of price fixing about it. It is illegal on many levels including trading to create an artificial market and engaging in cartel price fixing activity. Also, trading churn with brokers acting for much the same interests invariably results in trading losses for some and trading profits for others, but where the overall result is minimal profits or losses and minimal changes to beneficial ownership. i.e. Such trading represents a zero-sum game and further reflects on the non-genuine nature of trading. 8.2.9.8.11 BROKER SETTLEMENT SHARE FLOWS VERSUS BUYING & SELLING Table 8.2.9.2 listed the ASX buying and selling data for the leading brokers for the period October 2010 through January 2011. Further insights into trading can be gained by comparing settlement share flows through broker nominee accounts. There are two categories. 1. Broker nominee share flows reported in Market Movement reports The nominee accounts are used primarily to provide safe passage for shares passing between shareholders who are lenders of shares and broker clients involved with short selling or short covering. Market Movement reports therefore list the share flows through shareholder accounts as a result of buying and selling together with the share flows through broker nominee accounts. 2. Broker Nominee share flows reported in Net Movement reports Broker nominee accounts also support settlements for normal trading, as well as providing a vehicle for share flows associated with securities lending where shares flow back and forth between lenders and broker custodial accounts. Firstly to make them available for short selling by depositing them in broker custodial accounts, and secondly to return loaned shares back to lenders after short covering transactions are settled. Net movement reports include all Market Movement data (i.e., shareholder movements and broker nominee movements that facilitate short selling) as well as broker settlement share flows. The table that follows compares broker buying and selling with broker settlement share flows and also includes broker registry share flows on behalf of clients. Also provided is a breakdown of broker nominee share flows that have supported securities lending transactions as evidenced in Market Movement reports. Of around 82 million shares flowing OFF and ON the register over the four-month period, 14.03 million shares were moved out of broker nominee accounts and 13.23 million shares moved into such accounts. The remainder of share movements concerned shareholder accounts. 75
The registry involvements of brokers are reduced compared to their buying and selling in the market as large volumes of trades are done by most brokers on behalf of institutions that are settled elsewhere (e.g., they are settled not by the brokers but by custodians and/or settlement specialists). Also, adding to the confusion, several brokers have dealings in broker nominee accounts associated with securities lending share flows, but dont appear on the register regarding specific clients. The result is a trading summary where large discrepancies exist between buying and selling in the market and the processing of trades that show up on the register. Confusion is the dominate feature of trading and settlements, at least when viewed from a lay perspective, yet buying and selling is a straight forward, simple process that ought to be readily reconciled amongst those involved. The fact that it isnt rings loud warning bells in regard to market transparency and market integrity.
BROKER Broker Code % of ASX Trading % of Broker Settlements % of Registry Flows
Broker Nominee Entity (Re: Market Movements) % of Nominee Flows Commonwealth Securities COMM 17.9% 15.1% 11.3% Share Direct Nominees 1.0% Deutsche Bank DMG 7.8% 6.5% 0.0% Pan Australia Nominees 2.8% E-Trade Securities ETRD 7.1% 8.4% 4.6% - 0.0% UBS Securities UBS 6.9% 21.6% 0.0% UBS Nominees 65.9% Morgan Stanley MSDW 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% Morgan Stanley Nominees 2.0% Citigroup Global CITI 6.1% 4.9% 0.0% - 0.0% AIEX AIEX 5.9% 3.4% 4.4% - 0.0% Morgan Smith SBAR 5.4% 2.5% 1.6% Skeet Nominees 0.6% BBY BBY 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 0.0% Macquarie Insto MACQ 2.9% 3.9% 0.5% Buttonwood Nominees 0.0% State One Stockbroking SOSL 2.8% 0.2% 0.1% - 0.0% Goldman Sachs GS 2.7% 0.0% 0.1% - 0.0% HUB24CS HUB24 2.4% 1.9% 0.2% - 0.0% Merrill Lynch MERL 2.2% 3.6% 0.0% MLEQ & Merrill Lynch 11.9% Credit Suisse CSUI 2.0% 1.1% 0.0% CS Fourth Nominees 8.2% JP Morgan JPM 1.6% 2.0% 0.0% New Economy Nominees 1.6% ABN Amro ABNA 0.01% 0.0% 0.0% ABN Amro Nominees 6.0%
The substantial variations between buying and selling involvements, settlement transactions and registry share flows reflect badly on a system that tolerates the large scale obfuscation of trading records. As brought to attention by research into trading data, buying and selling by a substantial interest can be disguised through the use of multiple brokers with settlements then being directed elsewhere. An analogy that helps to put matters into perspective is that major entities trading through multiple brokers and where collusion ensures effective control is held over trading outcomes with the ownership over shares not changing materially, is akin to a property auction where the majority of bids are dummy bids representing the one interest either as a buyer or seller. The situation is hugely lacking in regard to market integrity. It comes as no surprise that the financial regulator claims it is often difficult to gather evidence to prove wrong doing <CLICK: Reference Link> and that would especially apply to the share market. The system by its very design ensures that it is very difficult to make entities accountable for the impact their trading has on the market, whether it be trading in CuDeco or trading in any other stock on the ASX. It follows that without a willingness to conduct audits, glaring trading anomalies cannot possibly be accurately assessed. 76
And without audits any attempts to set artificial prices or to manipulate the market, whether by a single entity or entities colluding with their trading, cannot be successfully prosecuted. However, what can be proceeded with immediately is an investigation into broker activity that has resulted in overwhelmingly anonymous trading trends and dubious trading statistics as such behaviours are starkly obvious as demonstrated by research. Whether responsible in their own right or merely implementing the orders of clients, brokers need to be held accountable for trading that is manipulative and which creates artificial prices. The standout features of the previous table include: UBS Securities dominance regarding settlements (21.6%) and securities lending share flows (65.9%) but with a market share of only 6.9%. The low profiles of MSDW, CITI, DMG, SBAR and MACQ regarding settlements despite dominant buying and selling profiles in the market. The use of the ABN Amro Nominees account for securities lending share flows despite the broker having virtually no involvement in the market or appearing on the register regarding settlements. The absence of broker details regarding institutional dealings who accounted for over 60% of all shareholder register movements through entities such as JP Morgan Nominees, HSBC Nominees, Citicorp Nominees and national Nominees. (Refer Table 8.2.9.3) The absence of information concerning retail brokers regarding their non-retail client activity estimated at between 50% and 60% of their trading volumes, and the absence of information concerning brokers who use 3 rd party agents to settle their trades. The trading within Commonwealth Securities requires particular scrutiny because of the potential for institutional trading within COMM to be taking advantage of large numbers of COMM retail clients aided by the confusing market signals generated by dubious trading algorithms. The data strongly suggests that UBS Securities has been the hub where a lot of buying and selling has been channelled through regarding settlements, and where its dominant profile in facilitating lower prices through Downticks, short selling and influence during auctions has restrained prices while a major accumulation has taken place.
Given the extensive anomalies surrounding trading, it is inconceivable that the situation concerning M&G accumulation back in Nov 2010 met with regulatory approval, yet that is what has occurred up until the present time. It is also inconceivable that trading throughout August 2010 met with regulatory approval even though the trading anomalies were on a far greater scale to that addressed by the current complaint. And it is inconceivable that M&G trading through June, July and August this year (i.e., 2013) has to date met with regulatory approval, when trading anomalies associated with the sell down of the holding point to a grossly unfair and artificial trading environment as well. It is requested that a review of all trading be undertaken and corrective action taken so that CuDeco can trade unshackled from the manipulative influences that have held sway for such a long time.
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APPENDIX 1: CuDECO BROKER TRADING DATA CORRESPONDING TO M&G BUYING
The tables list brokers in terms of net-accumulation and net-selling on the days that the M&G Group accumulated shares in CuDeco.
OCT 29, 2010 M&G Buys: 884,380 shares NOV 1, 2010 M&G Buys: 1,035,163 shares M&G Broker: Morgan Stanley (MSDW) M&G Broker: Morgan Stanley (MSDW)