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implementation budgets with
explicit consideration of
uncertainties
Simplified determination of
the probability of exceeding
construction/implementation budgets
Exceeding of budgets may arise from
quantities and other uncertainties
construction/implementation hazards
Riskope International SA © 2009
www.riskope.com
The application discussed herein is a
subset of the Comparative Decision
Analysis
(CDA, © Riskope International, 2007*)
presented in the book
“Improving Sustainability through Reasonable
Risk & Crisis Management” by F. & C. Oboni,
2007
a company has
110M$ budget
available to
build a facility
Average cost= 90.0 M$
Max cost= 90+0.15*90= 103.5 M$
Riskope International SA © 2009
www.riskope.com
It is very difficult to:
Take these numbers and integrate them into a
coherent risk management approach because we do
not know the probabilities of occurrence of those
costs, and risk tolerability cannot be checked
Understand what the real variability of the project cost
could be.
These difficulties can be overcome by using the
Riskope’s application
table of potential overcosts (+,) is built for a
predesigned list of potential construction
hazards
The economy may down, thus labor OR high, thus labor 1 6 16
be prices will be prices will be
lower higher
Environmental good, thus no or OR bad, thus 0 1 2
Soundness little overcosts generating over
may prove to due to costs for
compliance construction
The Monte Carlo simulation, loaded with hazardous assumptions is not used!
Assumptions are of course made to keep this approach as simple as possible.
approximately 1/5, i.e. a little more
than getting a specific number when
rolling a dice (1/6))
Construction Analysis
0.14
Construction Budget ($)
0.12
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
As it can be seen the min and max values of the project cost cover a very wide
range, but the probabilities of occurrence of the extremes are negligible.
At first sight one could conclude they are
equivalent proposals/methods/
alternatives, but are they really?
If they weren't how can you justify the
selection of one to your company?