1AC- LNG Imports Module

( ) Lifting oil restrictions checks a forthcoming wave of Cuban LNG imports.

Benjamin-Alvarado 10
Jonathan Benjamin-Alvarado, PhD of Political Science, University of Nebraska, 2010, Cubas Energy Future: Strategic Approaches to
Cooperation, a Brookings Publication obtained as an ebook through MSU Electronic Resources page 111-12

The authors of chapter 2, Jorge R. Pin and Jonathan Benjamin-Alvarado, find that there are a number of key issues to consider regarding the
productive capacity of Cubas oil and gas resources. First, Cuba has seen close to $2 billion of direct foreign investment since 1991 in its
upstream oil and natural gas sector, with very good results. Crude oil liquids production reached a peak level of 65,531 barrels per day in 2003,
up from 9,090 barrels per day in 1991. Since 2005 Cuba has seen its crude oil production level off at around 52,000
barrels per day. Second, Cubas realized crude oil value could improve substantially once the country is able
to monetize its heavy oil production by means of its own future heavy oil conversion refinery processing capacity, or to
market its crude oil to U.S. Gulf Coast refining companies. Third, Cubas onshore and coastal heavy oil production seems to have
reached a plateau at around 52,000 barrels per day, but once Cupet has access to the services, technology ,
equipment, and capital available through independent U.S. oil and oil services and equipment companies
(when the trade embargo is lifted or modified), Cubas heavy oil production potential could grow to an amount in
excess of 75,000 barrels a day. Deficiencies in Cubas oil-refining sector including outdated technology that is
unable to process heavy crude coupled with an environmentally sensitive tourist industry will force Cuba to consider developing an
energy policy that relies heavily on clean-burning natural gas as its fuel of choice for power generation. Cubas future
natural gas needs could be sourced as liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Trinidad and Tobago, as Puerto Rico and the
Dominican Republic currently do, or from future Venezuelan production. A regasification facility to receive Venezuela-sourced liquid natural gas
is being planned for the southern coast port city of Cienfuegos by Venezuelas PDVSA and Cupet. Two one-million-ton regasification trains are
planned for 2012 at a cost of over $400 million. The natural gas is destined as fuel for that citys thermoelectric power plant, local industry, and
future petrochemical plants.

Increasing LNG imports causes accidentsoutweighs everything
Hunter and Amory Lovins 2001 (analysts, lectures and consultants on energy, resource and security policy, Hunter
Lovins has degrees in Law, Political Studies and Sociology and an honorary doctorate, and is a member of the California Bar. For
six years she was assistant Director of the California Conservation project. Amory Lovins is a consultant experimental physicist,
educated at Harvard and Oxford, who has published 23 books (many co-authored with Hunter) and several hundred papers. He
has held various academic chairs, received six honorary doctorates, served on the US Department of Energy's senior advisory
board, and consulted (often with Hunter) for scores of energy companies, manufacturing firms, governments and international
organisations. The Lovineses have received numerous awards for their work. Brittle Power : Energy Strategy for National
Security Rocky Mountain Institute -- http://www.rmi.org/images/other/S-BrPwr-Parts123.pdf -- also available
@ http://www.transitcommerce.com/Harpswell/weeks.asp)
Disasters Waiting to Happen : Liquified Natural Gas Natural gas can be sent by pipeline over long distances. For a price, it
can be piped from North Sea platforms to the British mainland, from Algeria to Italy, or from Siberia to Western Europe. But pipelines are
not a feasible way to send gas across major oceansfor example, from the Mideast or Indonesia to the United States. A
high-technology way to transport natural gas overseas has, however, been developed in the past few decades, using the techniques of
cryogenicsthe science of extremely low temperatures. In this method, a sort of giant refrigerator, costing more than a billion dollars, chills a
vast amount of gas until it condenses into a colorless, odorless liquid at a temperature of two hundred sixty degrees Fahrenheit below zero.
This liquefied natural gas (LNG) has a volume six hundred twenty times smaller than the original gas. The intensely cold LNG is then transported
at approximately atmospheric pressure in special, heavily insulated cryogenic tankersthe costliest non-military seagoing vessels in the
worldto a marine terminal, where it is stored in insulated tanks. When needed, it can then be piped to an adjacent gasification plantnearly
as complex and costly as the liquefaction plantwhere it is boiled back into gas and distributed to customers by pipeline just like wellhead
gas. Approximately sixty smaller plants in North America also liquefy and store domestic natural gas as a convenient way of increasing their
storage capacity for winter peak demands which could otherwise exceed the capacity of trunk pipeline supplying the area. This type of local
storage to augment peak supplies is called "peak-shaving." Such plants can be sited anywhere gas is available in bulk; they need have nothing to
do with marine LNG tankers. LNG is less than half as dense as water, so a cubic meter of LNG (the usual unit of measure) weighs just over half a
ton.1 LNG contains about thirty percent less energy per cubic meter than oil, but is potentially far more
hazardous.2 Burning oil cannot spread very far on land or water,but a cubic meter of spilled LNG rapidly boils into
about six hundred twenty cubic meters of pure natural gas, which in turn mixes with surrounding
air. Mixtures of between about five and fourteen percent natural gas in air are flammable. Thus a single cubic meter of spilled
LNG can make up to twelve thousand four hundred cubic meters of flammable gas-air mixture. A single
modern LNG tanker typically holds one hundred twenty-five thousand cubic meters of LNG,
equivalent to twenty-seven hundred million cubic feet of natural gas. That gas can form between about
twenty and fifty billion cubic feet of flammable gas-air mixtureseveral hundred times the volume of
the Great Pyramid of Cheops. About nine percent of such a tankerload of LNG will probably, if spilled onto water, boil to gas in about
five minutes.3 (It does not matter how cold the water is; it will be at least two hundred twenty-eight Fahrenheit degrees hotter than the LNG,
which it will therefore cause to boil violently.) The resulting gas, however, will be so cold that it will still be denser than air. It will therefore flow
in a cloud or plume along the surface until it reaches an ignition source. Such a plume might extend at least three miles downwind from a large
tanker spill within ten to twenty minutes.4 It might ultimately reach much fartherperhaps six to twelve miles.5 If not ignited, the gas is
asphyxiating. If ignited, it will burn to completion with a turbulent diffusion flame reminiscent of the 1937 Hindenberg disaster but about a
hundred times as big. Such a fireball would burn everything within it, and by its radiant heat would cause third-degree burns and start fires a
mile or two away.6 An LNG fireball can blow through a city, creating a very large number of ignitions and explosions across a wide area. No
present or foreseeable equipment can put out a very large [LNG]... fire.7 The energy content of a single
standard LNG tanker (one hundred twenty-five thousand cubic meters) is equivalent to seven-tenths of a megaton of TNT, or
about fifty-five Hiroshima bombs.

ExtensionCuban Oil Cuts LNG Imports

Cuba oil displaces LNGtrades off
Jorge Pinon 10/22/2010 (Senior Research Fellow, Florida International University, "Cuba's Energy
Future: Strategic Approaches to Cooperation"
www.brookings.edu/~/media/events/2010/10/22%20cuba%20energy/20101022_cuba_energy.pdf)

So for the future of Cuba, if Cuba is able to build those two new 300,000 barrels a day of heavy oil cracking capacity -- even if Cuba
doesnt find oil, itll be a very big potential deal. I want to briefly just talk about energy for a minute. I hope its not an accident
that an oil guy is sitting next to the environmental guy, but within the fossil fuels, there is no question that natural gas is the least contaminated
-- even though we want to get above fossil fuels. I understand that. But within the fossil fuels, natural gas is the fuel of the future. And Cubas
program is a two million ton a year train in Cienfuegos. Part of that is going to be to produce hydrogen for the hydrocrackers of the new
refinery, some petrochemical projects and then natural gas for the Carlos Manuel de Cespedes plant in Cienfuegos. If we can convert Cubas
thermoelectric capacity today to LNG, its going to be fantastic -- especially from air contamination and air pollution. Remember that the fuel
that Cuba is burning today is three percent high sulfur fuel. So from an environmental point of view, turning Cubas electric sector to LNG
will be fantastic. Plenty of energy in Trinidad and Tobago. Plenty of energy is going to be coming out of Venezuela. Plus, by
the way, if Cuba finds oil, that would allow Cuba then to export more oil because that oil that would have
gone to the power sector is oil that now they can export because its going to be replaced by LNG. Last
comment. You talk about black gold.

ExtensionEnding Embargo Cuts LNG Imports

Ending embargo opens Cuban market and develops its economyno longer as
dependent on T&T imports
George Alleyne 11/28/2012 (Writer for the Trinidad and Tobago Newsday, "Is Cuba embargo end
near?" www.newsday.co.tt/commentary/0,169863.html)

Trinidad and Tobago has in the past enjoyed a favourable balance of trade with Cuba, with at one stage its exports to Cuba being 30 times as
great as its imports from the Spanish speaking country. Some of the principal Trinidad and Tobago exports to Cuba have
in the past embraced anhydrous ammonia, bars and rods of non-alloy steel, gas oil, other petroleum products, liquefied
butane and liquefied propane. But even as this columnist has for several years advocated the lifting of the United States embargo
on Cuba and today urges President Obama to relegate the embargo to the dustbin of history I recognise that the anticipated increase in Cubas
tourism industry, will result in a marked drop in overnight and short and medium term visitor arrivals re Trinidad and Tobago and other Caricom
Member States. This will mean a reduction in revenue from tourism. Nonetheless, what is important is the broader picture. Cuba after any
lifting of the US embargo, if only because of the emphasis placed by its post Fulgencio Batista leaders, is almost certain to
resist attempts to have Cuba as a source for primary products. Indeed, Cuba has a more bankable work
force than any other other Caribbean island nation save for Trinidad and Tobago. Because of its proximity to the
United States, however, and the covert interest of many Americans and the open interest demonstrated by European investors, a lifting of
the US embargo will see a close to rapid development of its economy, limited only by the ongoing world recession.

ExtensionCuba Dependent on T&T

Cubas oil drilling failures make it dependent on Trinidad and Tobago
David McFadden 3/31/2013 (Writer for the Associated Press, "Caribbean nations search for oil and
spill fears" bigstory.ap.org/article/caribbean-nations-search-oil-amid-spill-fears-0)

So far, the twin-island nation of Trinidad & Tobago is the only major hydrocarbons producer in the Caribbean, and
its waters are crowded with offshore platforms. The country sits just about seven miles (11 kilometers) off the coast of Venezuela, which has
the world's largest proven oil reserves. It's pushing hard into deep-water drilling and has signed production-sharing contracts with British oil
company BP for new exploration blocks. A growing number of other Caribbean nations are also authorizing or at least aggressively pursuing
offshore exploration. The Bahamas recently announced it would try offshore exploratory drilling and said it should have enough information by
late 2014 to decide whether it can move forward with production. A voter referendum would first have to decide the matter. Bahamas
Petroleum Company CEO Simon Potter said a rig will drill to subsea depths of roughly 22,000 feet (6,705 meters) in some 1,600 feet (488
meters) of water adjacent to Cuba's offshore territory. Barbados and Jamaica have also been seeking well exploration in their seas, while the
Anglo-Dutch group Shell announced in December it was preparing to sink its third offshore well in nearby French Guiana, an overseas French
department, with other companies also exploring in deep waters there. "What once was a trickle is fast becoming a stream in the Caribbean,
with new announcements of expanding deep-water exploration lease offerings and drilling permits being issued," said Lee Hunt, a Houston-
based consultant who retired last year as the longtime president of the International Association of Drilling Contractors. The push for
exploration has been fed partly by worries that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's nearly two-year-long cancer fight and March 5 death
would affect a Venezuelan aid program called PetroCaribe that sells petroleum to 17 Caribbean countries on preferential terms. PetroCaribe
provided $14 billion worth of Venezuelan oil to the region last year, with Cuba being the principal beneficiary. Chavez's successor Nicolas
Maduro hasn't said he would stop the aid, but his challenger in April 14 elections, Gov. Henrique Capriles, has pledged to cut off subsidized oil
to Cuba and reevaluate the PetroCaribe program if elected. Keeping the oil flowing is crucial. Caribbean countries
generate nearly all their power from imported oil although the region is blessed with solar, wind and other alternative
energy opportunities. Nonetheless, many people across the region fear their famed clear water, fringing reefs and white-sand beaches could
end up a casualty to any future oil boom, threatening the tourism bonanza that many countries already depend on. Even with the possibility of
a windfall still distant, regional officials have begun to discuss how they would cooperate in the event of a major accident, such as the 2010
Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. "First, we have to prevent any kind of spill. And second, if something happens, we have to
make sure everyone is working together," said Ernesto Soberon Guzman, the Cuban ambassador to the Bahamas, during regional talks about oil
spill preparedness in the Bahamaian capital of Nassau this month. Ocean currents practically assure that a big spill in one Caribbean nation
would significantly affect neighbors, possibly even the U.S. East Coast. Many Gulf communities are still recovering from the Deepwater Horizon
accident, the country's largest offshore oil spill. "If oil rises to the surface and gets to the surface currents, it would start flowing towards our
waters and our shores," said Capt. John Slaughter, chief of planning, readiness, and response for the U.S. Coast Guard's Miami-based 7th
District. "We're going to take every action we can to prevent that from happening." Adding to complications, the overall
Caribbean region, with the exception of Trinidad & Tobago, is still an uncertain frontier for offshore oil
and gas, said Jorge R. Pinon, a Latin America and Caribbean energy expert at the University of Texas in Austin. Cuba, for example,
authorized exploratory drilling for ultra-deep deposits estimated to hold 5 billion to 9 billion barrels of oil, but its dreams
were put on hold last year when three initial exploratory wells were unsuccessful and the massive
platform that drilled them sailed away, with no scheduled return date.

ExtensionLatin American Dependent on T&T

T&Ts gas-based economy is perfectly positioned to supply to Latin America
InvestTT 2013 (Investment Trinidad and Tobago, "Downstream Energy" www.investt.co.tt/targeted-
sectors/downstream-energy)

Trinidad and Tobago boasts a well-established, energy-based economy. The nation is currently ranked as the number
one single site explorer of methanol and ammonia in the world and a major exporter of LNG to the United States. A major player in the
international iron and steel market, as well as in the export of crude oil and refined petroleum products, the country is now
considered a gas economy, with gas-based production exceeding oil production in terms of contribution
to GDP. The island is an optimal location to access Spanish and English speaking Latin American and Caribbean
countries; there are 40 daily flights to countries in the region, guaranteed low cost of operations via low energy rates, competitive office
space and quality labour with job mobility across CARICOM.


**Impacts**
Impact- LNG Terror
LNG tankers are prime terror targets
Eben Kaplan 2006 (Assistant Editor, the Council on Foreign Relations, Liquefied Natural Gas: A
Potential Terrorist Target? http://www.cfr.org/port-security/liquefied-natural-gas-potential-terrorist-
target/p9810)

The Sandia National Laboratories report assesses four potential ways terrorists may target an LNG tanker and the worst
potential outcomes: Ramming: Terrorists may attempt to drive another vessel into an LNG tanker or to divert a
tanker into a stationary object. Unless the tanker is struck at a very high speed or the object striking it is very sharp, it is unlikely that
a breach of the hull will occur. However, if such a breach did occur, there is a chance LNG would spill out and cause a
massive fire. Triggered Explosion: Explosives, such as mines, may be placed in the path of an LNG tanker or on
the tanker itself. If powerful enough, such an explosion could cause the cargo to spill and ignite. External Attack: There
are several ways terrorists may attempt to assault an LNG tanker. The 2000 U.S.S. Cole attack, in which
terrorists detonated explosives after pulling alongside the warship in a small vessel, is often cited as an
example of such an attack. Other possible methods of attack include firing missiles or rocket-propelled grenades at a tanker and or air
strikes. Tankers are particularly vulnerable as they traverse inland waterways en route to their
destinations. The impact of an assault would vary depending on the size and location of the attack, the worst-case scenario
being a massive explosion. Hijacking: The most catastrophic scenario involving an LNG tanker involves
terrorists taking control of an LNG tanker, sailing it toward a major population area and detonating the
cargo.

ExtensionLNG Terror

Al-Qaeda wants to target LNG tankers now
Eben Kaplan 2006 (Assistant Editor, the Council on Foreign Relations, Liquefied Natural Gas: A
Potential Terrorist Target? http://www.cfr.org/port-security/liquefied-natural-gas-potential-terrorist-
target/p9810)

Yes, because of LNG's explosive potential, experts say. Al-Qaeda, for example, has specifically cited LNG as a
desirable target, says Rob Knake, senior associate at Good Harbor Consulting, LLC, a homeland-security private consulting firm.
Pipelines are not as attractive because the flow of gas can quickly be cut off and an explosion easily
contained. Terminals make better targets because an attack could result in a massive fire that could potentially kill scores of people. They
are also good targets because "if you take out those terminals, you could have a significant disruption [in the U.S. gas supply,]" Knake says. But
an attack on an LNG terminal might not be so damaging. Terminals are equipped with emergency fire detection
mechanisms designed to minimize the impact of fires resulting from terrorist attacks or accidents. The most attractive targets are
the boats: 1,000-foot tankers with double hulls and specially constructed storage tanks that keep the
LNG cold. A report, put out by Good Harbor Consulting assessing the risk of a proposed LNG terminal in Providence, Rhode Island, concluded
that a successful terrorist attack on a tanker could result in as many as 8,000 deaths and upwards of
20,000 injuries. It is important to keep in mind that this is the worst case scenario. A report on LNG safety and security by the University
of Texas' Center for Energy and Economics explains LNG "tanks require exceptionally large amounts of force to cause damage. Because the
amount of energy required to breach containment is so large, in almost all cases the major hazard presented by terrorists is a fire, not an
explosion."

Experts agreeLNG tankers are being explicitly targeted
Cindy Hurst 2008 (Analyst with the US Armys Foreign Military Studies Office on various energy security
issues, Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, The Terrorist Threat to Liquefied Natural Gas: Fact
or Fiction? http://www.iags.org/hurstlng0208.pdf)

There have reportedly been indications of terrorists planning to hit LNG tankers. In November 2002, the
capture of Abd alRahim al-Nashiri, al-Qaedas operational commander in the Gulf region, brought to light the idea
that terrorists were already planning to go after such targets. Nashiri, allegedly a specialist in maritime operations, had
already played a key role in the attack on the USS Cole and the Limburg. According to a Western counterterrorism official during an
interrogation, Nashiri indicated that alQaeda had information on the vulnerability of supertankers to suicide
attacks and the economic impacts they would have. The official informed The Daily Star that al-Qaeda had a naval
manual describing the best places on the vessels to hit, how to employ limpet mines, fire rockets or
rocket-propelled grenades from high-speed craft, and turn LNG tankers into floating bombs. They
(terrorists) are also shown how to use fast craft packed with explosives and the use of trawlers, or ships like
that, that can be turned into bombs and detonated beside bigger ships or in ports, where petroleum or
gas storage areas could go up as well. They (manuals) even talk of using underwater scooters for suicide attacks.5