Dialogue Winter 13

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Coined by Jim O'Neill of Goldman Sachs in
2001, the acronym: 'BRIC' for signifying the
emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India and
China, has become integral to discussions on
world issues of politics and economics. In this
issue of Dialogue we contribute to this ongo-
ing international discussion, fundamentally
questioning whether they will meet the bench-
mark of power that the world now expects.

As in our previous issue, Dialogue's gaze
remains international with this edition cove-
ring a wide number of regions and topics in-
cluding: China's leadership transition (p. 23),
Italy's crisis with political elites (p. 11) and the
return of President Obama (p. 33) among
many others.

We welcome you to share your thoughts
on the issues discussed in this edition by e-
mailing: kclpoliticsjournal@gmail.com, and
remind you that the views expressed by this
journal belong to our contributors and do not
compromise Dialogue's non-partisan nature.

The Editorial Team
Content Editor
Georgina Singer
Creative Editor
Linna Strand
Society President
Ramtin Hajimonshi
Assistant Editors
Angela Buensuceso (Content)
Gabriel Coupeau Gonzlez(Creative)
Helene Lken Eiklid (Creative)
Dialogue | Winter 2013 02
03 Winter 2013 | Dialogue
In a time of global ideological truce it apparently ta-
kes an American investment bank to conjure up a ri-
val bloc of countries that may vie with the West. Ever
since Goldman Sachs coined the BRIC acronym more
than a decade ago, Brazil, Russia, India and China
have eagerly exploited their allotted brand to form a
non-Western coalition of emerging powers in inter-
national politics. And with a bit of wit of their own,
the BRICS recently capitalized in full by admitting
South Africa into their ranks, thereby enlisting anot-
her continent behind their non-Western cause.

On the face of it, the BRICS may be easily dismissed
as a strategically branded jumble of countries that
defy most meaningful common denominators. They
do not share a common geographical context or con-
stitute a trading block like the EU (European Union),
ASEAN (Association of South-East Asian Nations)
and MERCOSUR (South Americas trade bloc), nor
are they united by cultural affinities or historical
bonds like the Arab League and the Commonwealth
countries respectively. While Brazil, India and South
Africa pride themselves on being vibrant multi-
cultural democracies, both Russia and China are more
accurately described as autocratic regimes that up-
hold a rather particularistic ethno-cultural mindset.
Moreover, whereas China and Russia as permanent
members of the UN Security Council enjoy the status
and rights of great powers, the other three BRICS are
still regarded as developing countries and have for-

med their own club, IBSA (India-Brazil-South-
Africa Dialogue Forum), to strengthen their common
interests internationally.

Indeed, the notion of a BRICS-challenge to the West
quickly dissolves when confronted with the fact that
the lofty declarations from their annual summits
announcing wide-ranging cooperation and an exten-
sive bureaucratization of their joint activities have
yet to materialize. Even more importantly, the
BRICS themselves have been struggling with the
global financial crisis, which has seriously hampered
their growth momentum and accordingly under-
mined the previous straight line projections of their
rise. Finally, although they represent emerging mar-
kets, the BRICS still rank as middle or low income
countries in terms of GDP per capita (Place: 75, 53,
129, 92 and 78 respectively in 2011). This is of
course a useful indication of how far the BRICS still
lag behind the advanced Western economies thus
reducing the imminence of any direct challenge from
the BRICS.

Nevertheless, there are at least two reasons why the
BRICS-phenomenon is interesting as an express-
ion of the current mental state of international af-
fairs. Firstly, the BRICS embody an anti-Western
sentiment that runs deep among the emerging powers
as demonstrated by the sometimes harsh political
rhetoric of the BRICS summit statements. The colo-
nial suppression by Western countries is not easily
or willingly for that matter erased from the identi-
ties of Brazil, India or South Africa. The Chinese
have certainly not forgotten the Century of Humili-
ation under Western (and Japanese) imperialism,
which is why Chinese policy-makers react ve-
hemently whenever Western countries interfere in
questions concerning Chinas sovereignty or territ-
orial rights. As to Russia, its 20
th
century ideological
rivalry with the Western powers has instilled a simi-
lar anti-Western consciousness in the Russian popu-
lation. Taken together, this is mirrored in the BRICS
staunch commitment to Westphalian principles of
sovereignty and non-interference in internal affairs.
Russia and China have especially used their seats in
the United Nations Security Council to block the
emerging Western-sponsored norm of humanitarian
intervention through their commitment to
Responsibility to Protect (R2P). The BRICS mem-
bers attitude towards the West was recently exemp-
lified in the UN deliberations over Syria, where Rus-
sia and China both vetoed the British-led UN resolut-
ion to impose harsh economic sanctions in order to
end the conflict.

The second reason that the BRICS phenomenon is an
interesting reflection of international mentality has
actually more to do with the West itself. The emer-
gence of the BRICS appears to have triggered a tran-
sition to a post-western world mentality which feeds
into anxieties of a dramatic Western decline. These
anxieties are fed by an addictive virtual industry,
which constantly speculates over when rising non-
Western powers will surpass the West, featuring in
particular Chinas race against America. The pion-
eers of Goldman Sachs first estimated that the Chi-
nese economy would surpass the American in 2041,
which was later adjusted to 2027. The Economist
The BRICS embody an anti-
western sentiment that runs deep
among the emerging powers...
Intelligence Unit has projected the transition to
take place in 2021, while the International Mone-
tary Fund (IMF) and Organisation for Economic
Co-operation and Development (OECD) put their
bet on 2016. Some even argue that it has already
occurred in terms of the purchasing power parity
measure. Yet, in light of the recent slowdown of
the BRICS economic output and the continued
inferiority of the BRICS-economies compared to
the West, the whole exercise of measuring when
the transition nominally will take place seems to
foremost reflect a somewhat paranoid fear of
decline.

Interestingly, the debate about Western decline in
general and American decline in particular has a
long history reaching all the way back to the Cold
War era. From the fear of being overtaken by the
Soviet Union in the days of Sputnik through the
collapse of Bretton Woods, oil crises, the rise of
OPEC, Vietnam war and Iranian revolution to the
Japan threat of the 80s, which has now been re-
placed by a China threat. Hence, the latest round
of the declinist debate already has a well-
established lens through which to read the econo-
mic crisis, unemployment, military sequestration
and even the last flight of the Discovery space
shuttle.

On the other hand, when it comes to the United
States the declinist mentality is more than offset
by an optimistic spirit rooted in a deep-seated
belief in the unique potential of the American nat-
ion. This `exceptionalist mentality, as it is often
termed, has been in full display during 2012 as
part of the electoral campaigns of both presidential
candidates. Barack Obama, for instance, under-
lined in his State of the Union address that
anyone who tells you that America is in decline
or that our influence has waned, doesn't know what
theyre talking about. Mitt Romney declared that
the 21
st
century would be American, not Chinese.
In their third presidential debate Obama argued
that the United States remains the one indis-
pensable nation, and the world needs a strong
America while Romney went as far as to charac-
terize the United States as the hope of the earth.
In other words, the rise of the BRICS, notably
China, raises fundamental questions of Americas
self-understanding, which could lead the worlds
only superpower to accentuate the exceptionalist
strand of its identity.

While the idea of a BRICS-challenge to the West
may seem like a bit of a hype, it would be prema-
ture to predict that the 21
st
century will be yet anot-
her Western dominated period. There is no iron
law that prevents the BRICS from reaching parity
with the Western great powers but if it does hap-
pen, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa
are much more likely to pose a challenge to the
existing world order individually, rather than as a
group. In fact, what is really worrying is that there
are exceptionalist identities and a sense of self-
righteousness on all sides the last thing we would
wish for is for the 21
st
century to become a clash of
exceptionalisms.

ANDREAS BJE FORSBY is a PhD candidate at
the Danish Institute for International Studies.
PETER MARCUS KRISTENSEN is a PhD Candi-
date at the University of Copenhagen.
Initially, we were very excited when the European
Union embarked on its process towards unifying its
Common Foreign and Security Policy, giving us one
actor to talk to in place of 27! Unfortunately, today, not
much has changed; instead we have reverted to focusing
our diplomatic efforts on the Big Three. This state-
ment by a researcher in one of Chinas government
think tanks has been confirmed in most of my en-
counters during a seven-month research stay in Beijing.
Of course, my counterparts were speaking about the EU
landmark reforms in December 2009; when the ratifi-
cation of the Lisbon Treaty freed the way to the
establishment of a diplomatic corps and a foreign mini-
stry of the European Union. The frequent requests by
third countries to address a unified union were conside-
rable motivations for the novelties in the Lisbon Treaty,
three years after the signing of the treaty, have the new
structures been able to address these issues? Which ba-
ses have been established?

Two of the most important changes of the Lisbon treaty
are the elevation of the position of the High Representa-
tive for Common Foreign and Security Policy, which
was represented by Javier Solana from 1999-2009. To-
day Lady Catherine Ashton holds the position of the
High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs
and Security Policy (HR). She also heads the newly
established European External Action Service (EEAS),
which started operation in 2010. The European External
Action Service replaces the former Representations of
the European Commission and is supposed to work
much like national embassies. Today the EEAS opera-
tes 140 delegations all over the world, which is more
than most individual European member states.

To answer the question of the red telephone let us
look at three novelties related to the personnel changes
the EUs Foreign Service has been introducing. Firstly,
the EEAS combines a wide variety of policy areas un-
der its expertise. While national embassies normally
fulfill a variety of administrative roles, its functional
positions are mainly filled with political experts. Since
the EEAS is combining the former functions of the De-
legations of the European Commission with those of a
foreign service, counterparts will find experts of the va-
rious directorate generals under its roof. This means, for
instance, that representatives of trade ministries will be
able to actually meet with a trade expert rather than a
diplomat when visiting the EU Representation. If used
as intentioned the new structure could shorten commu-
nication lines and concentrate negotiations by EU mem-
ber states. What appears to be an advantage for the visi-
bility of the different Commission portfolios also crea-
tes a very clear challenge of loyalties. The EU delegat-
ions are effectively staffed by member states and the
European commission, which has conjured clashes of
working styles, loyalties and budget allocations, especi-
ally in the first two years of operation.

One of the most visible (intentionally so) new actors is
the new HR, currently Lady Catherine Ashton. The idea
behind the creation of the position of the HR was to
give the Union a face that would be recognized by glo-
bal leaders as a serious counterpart (together with van
Rompoy, the President of the European Council, and
Barroso, the President of the European Commission).
Media reports about the first three years of Lady
Ashtons tenure have been underwhelming, to say the
least. Criticized both in her home country and continen-
tal Europe comments have run along similar lines: too
weak, not charismatic enough and not measuring up to
the task designed for her. To be fair, however, one has
to look at the job the HR is tasked with, as she combines
a staggering six roles in one person. Ashtons days are
filled with meetings, briefings, visits and simultaneously
leading the activities of the EEAS. Ashtons credentials
were put to a test of fire in the dealing with the Libyan
conflict. Following her approach of shuttle diplomacy
and consultation with EU member states Ashton ended
up being the last to issue EU statements following quick
communications by, for example French, British and
German governments. After Gaddafis ousting, the new
opposition government taking office did not even re-
ceive the European Unions HR.

But what do these examples tell us about the new visibi-
lity of the European Union as an international actor?
The answer must be typically European: We are looking
at a process, which has only begun. The Unions goal
assuming it is an actor with its own interest has not yet
been achieved. There are two sets of reasons for this,
one short-term, one long-term. In the short term there is
a general confusion by other governments and stakehol-
ders on what exact roles and capabilities the EEAS is
meant to fulfill. These questions of definition and per-
sonnel changes, however, might be answered as
networks are consolidated and the foreign ministries and
governments in Beijing, Washington D.C. and Brasilia
get used to working with representatives of EU Delegat-
ions. The second reason, which is unlikely to be solved
in the short run, relates to the internal makeup and po-
litical divisions within the Union. The institutional basis
for a common foreign and security policy has truly been
laid and a process tracing back to the very beginnings of
European integration, when a European Defense Com-
munity was considered for the first time, has reached a
significant milestone. But the complaints, the divisions
and the very essence of national sovereignty are still in
place and are likely to stay in place for many years to
come. In practice this means that there are still 27 state-
ments (and more) being made when the EUs strategic
interests (as laid down in its 2003 security strategy) are
threatened by conflicts in its neighbourhood and other
parts of the world. While it is legitimate for member
states to ask for sovereign decisions and would be
considered the norm in any other circumstance, the EU
has created an institutional framework aimed at com-
mon decision-making, representation and the pooling of
resources in international crisis situations. However,
commentators like Jos Ignacio Torreblanca from the
European Council on Foreign Relations predict for a
divided Europe a fate of international irrelevance, taking
last years vote over the admission of Palestine to UNE-
SCO as an example. Out of 27 countries, eleven voted
in favour, five against and eleven abstained. Whether
the mindsets, loyalties and political cultures of the Euro-
pean Union and its member states will change to fit its
new institutional structure, only the future can tell.

OLIVIA GIPPNER is a PhD Candidate at Berlin Gradu-
ate School on Transnational Studies and a researcher
with the NFG Research Project Asian Perceptions of
the EU.
Although the sun continues to shine over Greece,
one feels that it is far from as bright as it used to be.
Walking in the streets of Athens is enough to con-
vince someone that there has been a different at-
mosphere for the majority of the past two and a half
years. Impressive monuments like the Parthenon
still remain to remind Greeks of the glory days in
ancient Athens, a historic past in which many seek
refuge from the stresses of everyday life in the pre-
sent.

The city centre looks full on a weekend night and
the traditional restaurants tavernas - still manage
to serve some customers. Nevertheless the time of
good wine, expensive clubs in Greek islands and
la dolce vita - or as the locals say the fat cow
period- seem like a dream that has long faded.

The current state of the economy and political sce-
ne are not only the focus of many discussions made
in forums and conferences, but also in the local ta-
vernas over a glass of ouzo. Greeces capitulation
to the bailouts of the infamous troika (the Euro-
pean Central Bank, the European Commission and
the International Monetary Fund) have been pain-
ful, but after significant loans, a cabinet reshuffling
last year and two elections over the summer, the
country seems to be making small steps towards
improvement. Nevertheless the crisis has polarized
Greeks on a level not witnessed since the end of the
military junta in 1974 with parties continuing to
disagree on which is the right way forward. If one
looks closely enough, it becomes ever clearer that
what the country has journeyed through is not just
an economic crisis, but more potently a crisis of
values.

Understanding Greece from the inside requires an
illustration of the environment. In 2008 after the
subprime crisis, the availability of credit in the in-
ternational markets became ever scarce. Greece,
dependent on foreign lending, teetered on the verge
of collapse which in December 2009 resulted in
Fitch downgrading the creditworthiness of the
country for the first time in 10 years, to BBB+. Un-
able to acquire funds from the markets, Greece
sought help from the IMF in 2010. In May 2010 the
first bailout package of 110 billion was approved
by the Greek parliament despite massive demon-
strations outside the building. Since then the IMFs
agenda of privatization, liberalization and austerity
has been applied with limited success considering
that Greece will still require more funds in the next
two years.


Nevertheless many reforms have not yet managed
to be implemented due to the inefficiencies of the
state apparatus and pressures from interest groups.
The governments inability to tackle tax evasion
(loses from which were 42 billion in 2011) has
shifted the focus on austerity to deal with the defi-
cit which in a recent report by the Economist, could
possibly reach as much as 190% of GDP by the end
of 2014. That is not to mention the increasing costs
from energy, VAT and transportation which have
left the prices of basic goods increasingly unafford-
able for many. The massive decrease in aggregate
demand has resulted in high unemployment (25.1%
of the population, 55.6% among the youth in July
2012), and the closing of small and medium enter-
prises has led to the erosion of consumer and inves-
tor confidence. It would appear that austerity is giv-
ing birth to a vicious cycle, sinking the economy
deeper into insolvency.

On the social aspect, the image is even more criti-
cal: a 40% increase in suicides in the first half of
2010, and a rise in prescriptions for anti-
depressants, indicate a society sinking in line with
its economic outlook. Criminality has risen, and the
25% increase in homelessness has left the streets of
Athens filled with destitution. Cuts in the
healthcare budget of 36% are causing a number of
problems, including an approximate 33% surge in
HIV. Although NGOs are making valiant efforts to
deal with these problems, they arent able to cope
with the amounts of people in need of help. Values
have not escaped impairment either.
During an opinion poll in October 2012, 81% of
the participants expressed their dissatisfaction with
the state of democracy in Greece. Growing insecu-
rities from joblessness and future uncertainty is in-
creasingly giving rise to xenophobia; an alien value
to a country that once prided itself on hospitality.
Anti-immigration rhetoric is increasingly employed
by various right-wing parties who use immigrants
as scapegoats for Greeces woes. Significantly the
far-right party Golden Dawn managed to enter
parliament gaining almost 7% of the vote in June
2012, and according to a 2012 report by Human
Rights Watch, Greeces level of racist violence is
on the rise. These conditions create a dangerous
atmosphere, which many compare to the unstable
situation in the Weimar Republic in Germany dur-
ing the early 1930s.

Undoubtedly Greece makes an interesting case
study on the tragic impact of tight economic
measures on social prosperity. However recently
European leaders have adopted a more positive
rhetoric regarding Greeces reforming progress,
and Grexit appears less in the headlines. Never-
theless Greeces woes are not yet over, many chal-
lenges lie ahead before this Greek tragedy can
come to a close.

ERIC KLOPFER is a second year
International Politics BA student
at Kings College London.

With the wave of austerity measures spreading in
southern Europe and the crisis at hand, the strengths
of these countries are overshadowed by their flaws,
which arise when attempting to analyse the roots of
why the European recession has affected this region
so harshly. With Greece bordering on financial de-
fault and even considering a Euro-exit, and Spains
unemployment at an unprecedented high, Italy has
been portrayed as on an apparent road to recovery
since the technocratic government lead by Mario
Monti took office in November 2011.

A far cry from the infamously scandalous leadership
of Silvio Berlusconi, the Monti administration has
been widely praised by international press, accredit-
ing him with having saved the euro through his aus-
terity policies for Italy Europes third largest econo-
my, labelling him Super Mario in Germany and
gracing the cover of Time Magazine as the man des-
tined to save Europe. However, domestically he has
deeply split public opinion, as many condemn him for
his harsh austerity measures such as the IMUa
compulsory tax on housing. Italys problems are more
complex than they may appear: the disillusion toward
political elites that appear increasingly out of touch
with the people they govern has become a pressing
issue over the years, and this is crucial when attempt-
ing to decipher the troubles plaguing the Bel Paese.

Italian politics has come under scrutiny over the past
two decades at an unprecedented scale, and Ber-
lusconis controversial political presence over the
past 17 years can largely be held accountable. A me-
dia and business tycoon (notably the owner of Media-
set, Italys largest television group, as well as the
football team AC Milan) and one of Italys richest
men, Berlusconi was recently sentenced to four years
in prison for tax evasion by a Milan court, a decision
he will most likely sidestep, as has been the case with
the innumerable scandals surrounding him in past
few years. Another infamous trial involving him as a
protagonist is that surrounding the Rubygate scandal,
where Berlusconi has been accused of paying an un-
derage prostitute for sex in October 2010 and then
insuring she be freed from an arrest. Finally, the 76
Monti is 69, Berlusconi was
75 at the time of his resignation,
and the likely candidates for the
next election are all over 60
years old.
year old former prime minister caused innumerable
media scandals due to his alleged bunga bunga par-
ties, which involved a series of young, female escorts
attending lavish parties at his private villas in Rome
and Milan. Karima El Mahroug, the woman sur-
rounding the Rubygate scandal was known to be
among the numerable girls involved, as was Nicole
Minetti. Minetti, a 27 year old dental hygienist, was
accused of providing escorts for Berlusconis parties
and caused quite a stir when she was appointed re-
gional councillor for Lombardy (Italys wealthiest
region, which includes Milan). In many aspects, the
somewhat unprofessional leadership of Silvio Ber-
lusconi, teeming with scandals and cover-ups, lead to
a deeply negative perception of what Italian politics
had become.

Another factor incrementing the disillusion toward
politicians is that many citizens do not feel adequate-
ly represented by their leaders whom they see as
overpaid and unfit for their position. A recent study
placed Italian politicians as the highest paid in the
European Union, earning around 20.600 in monthly
stipend, compared to 12.860 in Germany and 4.945
in Spain. It is no doubt that as people face tax in-
creases for new austerity measures, such statistics
only serve to further amplify scepticism toward poli-
ticians. Worth noting is the creation of the populist
Movimento 5 Stelle, the Five Star Movement, created
by comedian turned politician Beppe Grillo. Refusing
to call itself a political party per se, what started off
as a vociferous and satirical platform to condemn po-
litical corruption, the Movement is now even con-
tending for the upcoming Parliamentary elections.
What is more notable than Grillos political group
itself is what it represents: it reflects just how exas-
perated ordinary Italians have become with their de-
cision makers, whom they consider outdated and
plagued with nepotism. Thus many people feel out of
touch with the political elites, believing they often
make a mockery of the country, and are pushed to
further disassociate themselves from the political pro-
cess.

What must also be held into account is the now ever
more apparent gap between young and old, a genera-
tional contrast felt socially and reflected politically.
Many young people do not feel that their members of
parliament adequately represent them, and the grim
economic situation means many have second
thoughts about their future as professionals in Italy.
They believe that only by pursuing a career abroad
can they hope to succeed after their studies, and los-
ing its most promising talents will only hinder Italys
future ability to compete in the global market. Fabio
Marzaili, a student at Milans renowned Bocconi
University in Milan, finds that his future in Italy is
limited, and while there is ambition and determina-
tion among students, what is lacking is a belief in
them from above. Their argument that politicians
may be outdated and unappealing to the younger
generation is not totally unfounded. In fact, Monti is
69, Berlusconi was 75 at the time of his resignation,
and the likely candidates for the next election are all
over 60 years old. Only 7% of MPs are under 40 in
the Chamber of Deputes while women are even more
underrepresented, making up a mere 15% of the pre-
sent cabinet and Italy ranks 67
th
in the world for
number of female parliamentarians. It is clear that
Italian politics needs to replenish itself by becoming
a system more open to change, listening to the voices
of a new and fed up generation and it must over-
come the inertia of this aged and out of touch system
so strongly characterised by corruption and favourit-
ism.
CHRISTINA ANAGNOSTOPOULOS
is a second year European Studies BA student at
Kings College London
The year 2012 marks over 20 years since the dissolution
of the Soviet Union on Boxing Day 1991. 20 years for a
scarred country to change, evolve and survive. Claiming
fame as the largest country in the world, Russias turbu-
lent history is renowned as her economic power in
energy. Nevertheless one can boldly argue that nothing
has changed politically in the last 20 years, today the
country faces significant political and economic pro-
blems which are restraining Russias ability to further
develop and fulfill her potential as a BRIC nation, and
putting the country in the dangerous position of rever-
ting back to pre-1991 troubles.

Many international and widely respected scholars like to
blame Russias situation on her beloved fourth-time lea-
der Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, but blame also
comes from within Russias own ranks. Mikhail Kasy-
anov, former Prime Minister of Russia who was in of-
fice from 2000 to 2004 during Putins first presidency,
has taken a critical stance on his one-time successor sta-
ting that during Putins second term all democratic in-
stitutions were gradually abolished and that the system
of electoral democracy has entirely disappeared. Kasy-
anov refers to the shameless falsification of the recent
local elections as a case in point, with Marie Mendrass
book The Paradox of a Weak State arguing that the de-
gree of fraud in Russias free and fair election system
ultimately points to a weakness in the regime and reluc-
tance to change.

Today one of Russias biggest problems remains to be
the contentious issue of change. Change is necessary for
modernisation and international competitiveness, and
according to the prominent Russian politician Alexander
Voloshin, Putin is not against modernization in Rus-
sia. However according to Kasyanov the current prime
minister Dmitry Medvedev is not regarded as indepen-
dent politician from Putin, meaning that his words and
actions carry no weight in the eyes of the public. Ka-
syanov goes further to state that Medvedev argues for
modernisation, but he does not believe that political re-
form is required in order to achieve it. It is this change
through political reform that is particularly needed to
tackle Russias corruption which even Putin has said
has reached unparalleled levels with formal govern-
ment bypassed by informal networks, leaving Russians
with the uncomfortable reality: to get something done
one simply needs to bribe the right person.

Similarly foreign relations and Russias economic situ-
ation are areas of concern. Kasyanov argues that Rus-
sias unfortunate human rights record compels the West
to treat Russia as a country alien to European norms and
values. Recent events certainly support this perception
with the so-called Anti-NGO bill, which forbids
foreign involvement in domestic social causes, and the
Anti-Gay bill, which equates homosexuality to pe-
dophilia, both being passed by the Kremlin. Further-
more Russias commodity led market is predicted to
continue to suffer through 2013, even Putins key sup-
port Alexander Voloshin admits that Russia suffers
from a significant technological and innovation lag.
The need to modernize the mechanics of the economy
and diversify the economy away from its reliance on
energy remains the biggest hurdle if Russia is to com-
pete with her BRIC rivals.
Nonetheless not all is a dark as it seems. Putin has
taken steps to integrate women with appropriately
sophisticated qualification into significant positions
of responsibility in the Duma. It would seem that
with such careful selection of these female members,
that they are not just there for decorative purposes.
Equally, it would be fair to point out that there are
people who dont participate in corruption, with Vo-
loshin highlighting that many decent, dedicated pe-
ople working in government who are not motivated
by money. Moreover, some reform has been carried
out. Putin has implemented significant reforms in the
tax system and passed a land reform which allows the
private ownership of agriculture land which can be
seen as a big step away from Russias traditional
communist roots.

Overall it would seem that if Russia is to develop
further, Russia must wholeheartedly embrace reform.
Economically the key drivers should be economic
diversification and the privatization of industry. Po-
litically, Putins move to take office for the fourth
time has not inspired this atmosphere of change, ins-
tead many reminisce that it is like returning to old
days of the USSR with corruption still rife. Robert
Dahl famously argued that legitimacy lay in de-
mocracy, something that Russia certainly believes she
has, when in fact recent government bills and the do-
mestic outcry over the Pussy Riot case would indicate
otherwise. The failure for these reforms to happen
ultimately must rest on those who have the power to
pass them, as it is the interests of those select indi-
viduals which would particularly be damaged through
a restructuring of power. Russia has considerable po-
tential to fulfill her BRIC status as the country is en-
dowed with the necessary tools, unfortunately, it
lacks the drive to wield them.

FIONA LFFEL is a second year Russian Studies
student at University College London

Another grand summit, another postponement of the
big decisions. The streets of Athens, the home of de-
mocracy, resembles a disaster zone. Even Medicines
Sans Frontiers, which operates in third world coun-
tries, has now started providing healthcare in Greece
- their first mission in a western nation. Europe,
along with Britain, has big choices to make.

Many claim that it is not a central issue in the British
electorates mind. But the tentacles touch every part
of our national fabric, from competition laws, to jus-
tice, immigration, national security and so forth.
Most British Conservatives want a new relationship
with the EU, based on free trade, intergovernmental
co-operation and alliance. We want Britain to work
closely with its neighbours while retaining autonomy
over its domestic affairs. We want us to remain full
partners in the single market, but we dont believe
that this requires us to accept the primacy of EU over
British law.

The principle of sovereignty is key. But it is a serious
problem when we cannot deport those we believe to
be a threat to our national security. It is a problem
when unelected European judges overrule our parlia-
ments and supreme courts decision to deny prisoners
the vote. Many state Sir Winston Churchill as a great
advocate of the European Court of Human Rights
(ECHR), but this was in the time of communist gu-
lags and the deepest darkest depths of war. If he
could witness what British politicians are having to
go through now, with judicial and political decisions
being overruled, he would be turning in his grave or
on the verge of going on a cognac-fuelled rant.

It is impossible to think that the continent of Europe
can be a centralised federal state like that of the Unit-
ed States of America. The continent is too diverse,
politically, economically and socially for us to be
united only through sentiment. This is what makes
each of our individual nation-states great, but it is
also why Brussels cannot create a European national-
ity.

We want an independent Britain: trading with its al-
lies, but governing itself. Now of course this would
entail withdrawing from a range of agreements such
as European Trading Emissions Schemes, the ECHR
and the Common Agricultural Policies amongst
many others. Some will say that well never achieve
all these objectives. We are not so pessimistic. The
relationship we have outlined is very similar to the
one already enjoyed by Switzerland, the precedent
exists.

We want to be in Europe - so long as it serves our
needs. An audit by the Foreign Office and the Treas-
We want an independent Brit-
ain: trading with its allies, but
governing itself.
ury is expected to announce in 2014 that we are now
net contributors to the EU by several billions of
pounds. The eurozone crisis is another symptom of
the failures of the European political and economic
model. Leaders such as Barosso, Rompuy and Mer-
kel just keep putting plasters of bailouts on the giant
bleeding open wound that is the massive financial
deficit across the PIGS nations (Portugal, Ireland,
Greece and Spain). The only two solutions are polit-
ically unpalatable to the European political elites
and the general European populations - either let the
grand European project collapse - the nightmare of
the elites, or turn to greater centralisation of Europe
with Germany at the centre of the decision-making
process.

The UK has no intention of joining the euro, but we
have an interest in seeing our geographical allies
prosper. Many claim that Europe is half our export
market, but they say it as if Britain should be proud
of the fact we trade more to Ireland than the BRIC
nations combined, whilst the European market con-
tracts quarter after quarter.

But the ultimate judge of whether weve secured a
good enough deal shouldnt be me or, indeed, any
of the other party leaders. It should be the British
people via a referendum at least 18 months from
now. We will use the intervening period to seek to
bring back the aforementioned improvements. If we
get most of what we want, then we stay, and if we
dont, we leave. Not using the threat of leaving is
like buying a car from a dodgy second-hand car
salesman. If you tell him regardless of what you
say, I am buying a car from you today, then of
course you are going to get a shoddy deal. But it is
only when you threaten to leave that the salesman
grabs your arm and renegotiates, giving you what
you want. Why else has Germany, France et al not
told us to leave? - because they value us, but not
enough.

If it is not on offer, so be it. It is at a time of crisis
when one re-evaluates ones relationship with the
entity in question, not during the good times. We
are the seventh largest economy on Earth, the
fourth military power, a member of the G8 and one
of five permanent seat-holders on the UN Security
Council. We have the 53 commonwealth nations, in
which our relationship is changing greatly from aid,
to trade. Our tongue is the most widely spoken on
the planet. We are connected by law and language,
by habit and sentiment, to every continent. Leaving
the EU holds no terrors for us. The fact of the mat-
ter is, it is an all-or-nothing challenge - either the
European leaders need to take bold and necessary
decisions, or inevitably the British people will
make it for them.

YAZDAN CHOWDHURY is the External
Relations and Communications Officer for
KCL Conservative Society and a
BA student at Kings College
Londons Department of War Studies.

Propaganda and strategic communications are essen-
tial tools of national policy. In his 1942 study of war
propaganda, Edward Bernays found that the attitudes
and actions of foreign and domestic audiences were
greatly influenced by the effective marketing of
national aims and policies. Today, the marketing of
national goals and policies takes place on a 24-hour
news cycle, and in various online social networks.
Consequently, national marketing and propaganda are
always present in the social space of modern society.
The contest for influence between the United States
and China presents an interesting case study. While
the United States holds formidable soft power re-
sources in its culture and commerce, China has been
making great advancements in selling its national nar-
rative. To understand this phenomenon, it is neces-
sary to understand the key components of an effective
national marketing campaign - framing, connecting
words with actions, and appealing to emotions and
values instead of facts - using the communications
campaigns of China and the United States.
Frame the Message
Framing is the most fundamental tool of a persuasive
communicator. As a rhetorical tool, framing is a pro-
cess whereby communicators, consciously or uncon-
sciously, act to construct a point of view that encour-
ages the facts of a given situation to be interpreted by
others in a particular manner. Cognitive linguists
and politicians regularly use framing to alter percep-
tions in order to generate intended results. The USA
PATRIOT Act is a perfect example. In the wake of
9/11, how could American politicians vote against an
act that alludes to the concept of patriotism? The lan-
guage and the evoked frame conspired against them
by voting against the act, these lawmakers would be
perceived as unpatriotic. President George W. Bush
used framing effectively when he successfully brand-
ed lowering taxes as tax relief. As George Lakoff
points out, the frame implies that taxes are something
inherently burdensome that must be relieved. Every
time Democrats inadvertently use the phrase tax re-
lief they are successfully spreading Republican
anti-tax propaganda. On an international scale,
these principles work the same: countries want oth-
er countries to use their frames. The Chinese con-
cepts of peaceful rise and peaceful develop-
ment are similarly infectious. When American
pundits and news outlets repeat these concepts, the
notion of peaceful becomes inextricably associat-
ed with perceptions of China. But in order for such
a message to truly stick, the message must be
perceived as true.

Establish Credibility by Connecting
Words with Actions
Chinas peaceful rise narrative is effective only if
it appears true. Words therefore are important, but
coordinating both actions and words is essential to
an effective communications campaign. The recent
controversy over the issuance of new Chinese pass-
ports illustrates this concept. In a shortsighted dis-
play of territorial ambitions, China issued new

passports with a map that altered its borders to include
Taiwan and the entire South China Sea. This aggres-
sive claim of foreign territory undermines Chinas sug-
gestion that it is rising peacefully.
But China is not the only country that contradicts is
own rhetoric. During part of the War on Terror, the
United States sacrificed its credibility by simultaneous-
ly advocating human rights and the rule of law while
subjecting Al-Qaeda suspects to extraordinary rendi-
tion. The ultimate purpose of coordinating words and
actions is to maintain credibility without credibility,
attempts at persuasive communication are futile.

socialism with Chinese charac-
teristics allows the Chinese leader-
ship to portray their system of gov-
ernance as an ordinary brand of
democratic socialism.
Sell Values, Not Attributes
In the movie Thank You for Smoking, Aaron
Eckhart plays a lobbyist who demonstrates to his
son the importance of argumentation by using a de-
bate over the best flavor of ice cream as an analogy.
Instead of marketing vanilla ice cream by highlight-
ing its attributes, Eckhart declares that he needs
more than chocolate or vanilla ice cream, and that
he believes that we need freedom and choice
and that is the definition of liberty. His son is visi-
bly confused by this apparent divergence from the
discussion of ice cream, and does not understand
that his father was winning the debate by selling
values instead of attributes. Though everyone does
not prefer vanilla ice cream to chocolate, most peo-
ple would identify with the need for freedom and
choice.
It is no accident that the United States has marketed
itself using phrases such as the free world instead
of appealing to the quantitative advantages of
American liberal capitalism. Appealing to values is
a device that is closely related to framing the rhet-
oric of the free world employs framing by imply-
ing that there is a corresponding part of the world
that is not free.
Framing and using values to tell stories requires an un-
derstanding of culture. For instance, a Chinese citizen
might interpret the concepts of human rights and
republic very differently compared to a citizen of the
United States. In order to be persuasive on any given
issue, one must understand the position from which
others must be persuaded.

National Marketing is Here to Stay
At the recent 18
th
Chinese Communist Party Congress,
both Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping regularly used phrases
such as moderately prosperous society and
socialism with Chinese characteristics. The repeti-
tion of such phrases reflects the desire of the Chinese
Communist Party to communicate a consistent mes-
sage. Ultimately, moderately prosperous and
socialism with Chinese characteristics do not pro-
vide useful starting points for factual analysis, but they
incorporate the key aspects of effective national mar-
keting. The suggestion that Chinese society will be
moderately prosperous uses framing to incite image-
ry of a reasonable, quiet pace of development which
sounds benign, and is therefore a useful tool for man-
aging international perceptions of a developing China.
Similarly, socialism with Chinese characteristics al-
lows the Chinese leadership to portray their system of
governance as an ordinary brand of democratic social-
ism.
Another illustration of similar marketing practices can
be found in the official name of one of Chinas neigh-
bors The Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea
(DPRK) is clearly not democratic, cannot be consid-
ered a republic, and hardly belongs to its people, yet it
attempts to portray itself as being each one of these.
The attempt is doomed; though the DPRK attempts to
sell values, it does not have an effective frame, and
totally lacks credibility. States will continue to attempt
national marketing campaigns, but if all three compo-
nents of national marketing are not jointly implement-
ed, these campaigns are likely to fail.

PETER CORNETT is a MA student at the
Kings College London War Studies department.

What India needs is to find its
voice and speak confidently on
issues that really matter.
Aid is the past and trade is the future, with these
words India crossed yet another milestone on its jour-
ney to regain its place in the global order. While in
the UK the debate about ending development aid cen-
tred on select trivia, like highlighting Indias expen-
sive space programme, what got ignored was the fact
that it is also a rising power in the international devel-
opment arena. The 220m it was receiving from Brit-
ain pales in comparison to Indias own ambitious aid
plans. Earlier this year it set up its own development
agency with a five year budget of over $15bn and
careful not to be seen as yet another donor, the initi-
ative has been named Development Partnership Ad-
ministration. Confident yet tentative; India is bank-
ing as much on soft loans and its soft power as on
its strategic and military muscle.

With the advent of globalisation, it has become fash-
ionable to argue that along with rising economic
clout, Indias cultural brands like Buddha and Bol-
lywood can propel it further into global superstar-
dom. There is no denying that Indian films have long
been a major draw among international audiences,
ordinary people around the world gleefully suspend
disbelief and escape into the Technicolor world of
melodramas and fantasy tales of heroism. And it is
also true that Indian diaspora and its cultural icons
share with globalisation the idea of hybridity and
hence can add to Indias global appeal. The ubiquity
of chicken tikka masala in Britain is often cited as a
case of its growing soft power. But Bollywood fan-
tasy tales can hardly be a substitute for political pos-
turing. Doling international aid is also inadequate to
sustain a serious political agenda. What India needs is
to find its voice and speak confidently on issues that
really matter.

Its a post- Al Jazeera world
Even in this informational era, no nation can impress
the world by staying mute on contentious politics.
Despite globalisation, perhaps because of it, brute
economic and social realities are what most people
and governments care about. And they would want to
know Indias stand on issues that still divide the
world. Where is the voice of India on Arab uprisings,
on the global financial crisis and the future of capital-
ism, on climate change and the new normal of oil
prices? If there is one place the world gathers to dis-
cuss and deliberate on these issues, it is in the global
public sphere, both online and in the international
broadcasting arena.

American networks ranging from the classic propa-
gandist channels to the privately owned CNN Interna-
tional were early movers, and alongside the BBC and
Murdochs Sky News they have incessantly expanded
their reach since the first Gulf war. But since then
several new actors including Russias RT, Frances
News24, Chinas CCTV, Irans PRESS TV, Vene-
zuelas Tele SUR, and numerous other state and non-
state news broadcasters now reach not just the Eng-
lish speaking world but also the Arabic, Francophone,
Spanish and Lusophone audiences worldwide. But
perhaps the most ambitious and successful new play-
er in this arena is Qatars Al Jazeera. Such is the cred-
ibility and appeal of its broadcasts that the joke in
diplomatic circles is that Al Jazeera is a country with
Qatar as its capital!

A few years ago when the former Egyptian President
M.H. Mubaraq visited Qatar, like most foreign digni-
taries in this tiny GCC country he went to see the Al
Jazeera studios. He is said to have quipped "All this
noise from this matchbox?" The fact that a few years
later Al Jazeera had some role in ending Mubaraqs
regime is an instructive tale for anyone interested in
the changing nature of power in the 21
st
century. Al-
most no aspiring nation, whether pursuing a hard or
a soft route to global power, whether a democracy
or an authoritarian dictatorship, can ignore the suc-
cess of Al Jazeera. Hence it is even more surprising
that despite its vibrant domestic press, a constitution-
al democratic tradition and above all its
argumentative tradition, India should remain an ex-
ception when it comes to international broadcasting.

What happened, how did India lose
its voice?
If one looks back at its strategic and diplomatic histo-
ry it is indeed striking that even as its economic and
military power has grown, Indias voice in the global
arena has receded. It is also surprising given that In-
dias own founding father and one of the most fa-
mous democrats of the 20
th
century, Jawaharlal Neh-
ru, surpassed all his contemporaries when it comes to
publicly engaging the world on contentious issues.
He was particularly assertive when championing the
cause of the Third World and its fight against imperi-
alism. His robust, perhaps occasionally hoary,
speeches inspired a generation of campaigners for
democracy; South Africas Nelson Mandela and
Burmas Aung San Suu Kyi count him among their
heroes. The reason why India lacks its international
voice today perhaps goes all the way back to the dec-
ades that followed after Nehru.

From the late 1960s onwards India slowly slid into a
post-colonial spiral, its secular internationalist vision
overwhelmed by a rising tide of authoritarianism and
narrow cultural nationalism at home. Despite the tre-
mendous surge in South-South broadcasting agenda
promoted by the UNESCO and NWICO debates in
the late 1970s, India failed to cease the momentum in
international broadcasting arena. To highlight the
failure, a critic drew comparison between Nehru vi-
sionary ideas to his daughter Indira televisionary
instincts. Like many others in the postcolonial world,
Indian leadership after Nehru had an instinctive mis-
trust of a liberal press agenda, and sadly, ever since
its birth, Indias public broadcaster has languished in
bureaucratic red-tape.

A shared agenda, a new voice in Asia
The primary rationale why India must aspire to regain
its international voice is because its development
goals remain unfulfilled. As a natural heir to its Non-
Aligned legacy, an independent Indian (tele) vision,
articulated through international broadcasting, could
even align and synchronise its development agenda
with its Asian neighbourhood, if not with the rest of
the developing world. International broadcasting
could give the Indian civil society a novel platform to
discuss and shape the global development agenda,
and simultaneously opening a window for others to
see how a Third World postcolonial nation struggles
to stay on its democratic course. Given their own rec-
ord on press freedom at home, countries like China
and Russia can hardly impress an attentive global au-
dience.

Al Jazeera literally translates as The Island, and it
represents a solitary yet a very liberal and progressive
vision a modern monarch, the Emir of Qatar. A non-
aligned Indian broadcaster could offer an even wider
news agenda. In the 21
st
century it is a remarkable
anachronism that despite being home to over a fifth
of the world's population, even today there is no
South-Asian news network that has a focus on Asia
let alone the world. Instead of being an island, India
could become what an Indian political theorist called
it, a bridging power. The world awaits an interna-
tional broadcaster that seeks to bridge the great di-
vides of our time, between development and sustaina-
bility, between growth and equality, between free-
doms and responsibilities, and most vitally, between
the West and the rest.

AASIM KHAN is a PhD Candidate at
the Kings College London India Institute
Overshadowed by the US presidential election, the in-
troduction of Chinas new leader Xi Jinping at the 18
th

National Congress is significant far beyond Chinas bor-
ders. As a leadership change that only happens once in
decade, Chinas rapid growth and expansion under Hu
Jintao leaves Xi Jinping confronting difficult questions
of wider reform in the coming decade. The idea that
China stands at this crossroads of reform has been
mentioned repeatedly in both international and domestic
media, nevertheless the western press remains sceptical
that reform can be facilitated by a politburo where the
majority indicate a strong conservative stance.

The past decades has seen China undergo a transition
from a monolithic party apparatus, led by a single
strong leader, to a diverse system of collective lea-
dership, where competition among rival factions is far
more accepted into the government system. It is now
questions of political, rather economic, reform that are
being widely discussed. A recent poll by Chinas news-
paper Peoples Daily confirmed this idea and highlight-
ed the three driving forces of this movement: the devel-
opment of a public democracy, the expansion of intra-
party democracy and a greater transparency in govern-
ment administration.

Intra-Party Democracy:
Pilot Projects and Prospects
Ever since the issue of intra-party democracy was rai-
sed in the 15
th
National Congress, it has subsequently
been widely criticised as asking a doctor to perform
surgery on his or her own body. As a direct challenge
to the Chinese Communist Partys top-down democra-
cy, the initiative explicitly called for political reforms in
more competitive intra-party elections to choose CCP
officials.
Since 1982 some Chinese authorities have adopted a
more competitive method of election which allowed
multiple candidates to run for a single seat on the Cen-
tral Committee (chae xuanju). Jiangsu Province was a
pioneering area for this approach from 2002 to 2007
under the leadership of the local Party Secretary Li
Yuanchao. In September 2009, a total of 363 party com-
mittees belonging to local neighborhoods had direct
elections for their local Party leaders.

Similarly in Guangdong Province, Guidelines for Go-
vernment Reforms in Shenzhen for the Short-Term Fu-
ture was posted on the website of the municipal go-
vernment in May 2008. It specified that delegates to the
district or municipal Peoples Congresses in Shenzhen
would elect heads of districts and through the new com-
petitive system. Four heads of municipal bureaus were
elected in this way, each chosen from a group of two or
three candidates. The success of the pilot projects under
the leadership of Wang Yang laid the groundwork for
applying this method to the election for Mayor and Vice
Mayor of Shenzhen, a city of 10 million people. How-
ever in the recent 18
th
National Congress, the two lead-
ing contributors of these experimental reforms, Li Yu-
anchao and Wang Yang, who had been not only been
seen as stars of Chinas political reform but also promis-
ing politburo members, failed to gain a seat in the
Standing Committee. On the one hand it would seem
that this reflects the wider partys rejection of such radi-
cal reform approaches, but in fact it may rather be a re-
jection of Wang Yangs method, not his ideals.

Public Democracy:
Transforming the National Peoples Congress

The report of the 18
th
Party Congress highlighted that
the reform of the National People Congress (NPC) has
taken place by reducing the proportion of party cadres
in the National People Congress and other legislative
bodies. The significance of this rests in the NPCs
ability to make important nation-wide political decis-
ions such as: the amendment and enforcement of the
constitution, the enactment of basic laws and the
election and appointment of members to central state
positions. Given that 70% of the Congress are party
members, the NPC has been labelled a rubber stamp
parliament by the critics. A reform which could reduce
the proportion of party members in the NPC would al-
low non-party members to have equal influence within
the NPC and also appease the critics.

Anti-Corruption: A Long Road
A further issue that the recent 18
th
Party Congress tack-
led was corruption. The report expressed the intent to
eliminate the abuse of government power and
emphasized that no organization or individual has the
privilege of overstepping the constitution and laws, and
no one in a position of power is allowed in any way to
take one's own words as the law, place one's own aut-
hority above the law or abuse the law. How this will
determine interpretations of the constitution is critical,
but the key challenge is the execution. One significant
omission in the report is the reference to the regulation
for disclosing personal assets of officials in the legisla-
tive body. This omission suggests that obstruction from
within the party remains the biggest hurdle in the
execution in the intended anti-corruption legislation.

The report of the 18
th
Party Congress seems more like a
compass than a clear map that outlines Chinas future
under Xi Jinping. The pressure for the future is high,
with just over seven years until 2020 where Chinas
government is hoping to meet Hu Jintaos promise of
building a moderately prosperous society in all re-
spects, with deepening reform and opening up. This
declaration will make it increasingly imperative for Xi
Jinping to have a substantial response to the citizens
appeals for reform, but internal opposition from within
the party may still grind the wheels of progress to a
halt.

LIJUAN DONG is an MA student at Kings College
Londons Department of Political Economy
As the 18th largest country in the world with a populat-
ion of 75 million, Iran is not particularly noted for its
ancient history or its vibrant culture in western headli-
nes, but is instead rather infamous for its nuclear pro-
gram. The international community debates diplomacy
and war as the two resolutions to the Iranian nuclear
crisis. As the former fails to succeed, the supporters of
the latter call for war. However, another alternative ex-
ists which has been lost in the fog of war: deterring a
nuclear Iran. If diplomacy fails, deterring a nuclear Iran
is a politically painful, but the strategically effective
policy to consider.

For a better understanding of the dynamics of this crisis,
let us make two assumptions. First, let us assume that
Iran is seeking nuclear weapons. Despite Tehrans
emphasis on its peaceful purposes, there remains a
growing concern over its ambitions to weaponize. Much
of these concerns are primarily rooted in lack of con-
structive diplomatic channels and the historical tensions
between Iran and the West most notably with the U.S.

Second, let us assume that diplomacy fails. International
and unilateral sanctions have been used as diplomatic
means to increase the costs for Iran and promote nego-
tiations. Supporters of the sanctions insist on the increa-
sing pressure on the Iranian economy and its opponents
emphasize the way in which sanctions have become the
end instead of means for promoting negotiations. But
one matter is clear: the sanctions are yet to succeed in

The Israeli Prime Minister,
Benjamin Netanyahu, has gone as
far as comparing the impacts of
a nuclear-armed Iran to the Nazi
Holocaust.
achieving their objective of bringing parties to the nego-
tiation table, leaving us with the scenario that diplo-
macy has failed.

Under such a scenario there are two propositions: a
military operation by Israel or the U.S. against the Ira-
nian ambitions, or deterring a nuclear Iran. The propo-
nents of a military operation justify their case on the
bases of the dangers of a nuclear Iran, among other ar-
guments, prominently claiming that it will trigger a reg-
ional arms race and annihilates Israel. In doing so, they
misunderstand the consequences of a nuclear Iran and
underestimate the immense complexity of this military
operation.

They argue that if Iran obtains the weapon it will trigger
a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. The Arabic ne-
ighbors of Iran and Turkey will pursue their own nu-
clear weapons programs, creating hyper-proliferation in
an already volatile region.

Support for this argument has
come from the published private conversations of Arab
leaders by Wikileaks, as well as public statements by
the Turkish President.

But the reality is different than the rhetoric. Developing
nuclear programs is far too complex to achieve in the
short term. In fact, the Iranian nuclear program itself
dates back to the 1950s. In 1963, U.S. President, JF
Kennedy predicted additional twenty-five nuclear
weapons powers within a decade. After four decades,
there are only four more. Instead, the military alliance
of the United States with many countries can provide
the necessary security assurances against a nuclear Iran
to prevent an arms race. Ironically, after Israel obtained
nuclear weapons, the same Arabic states relied on the
U.S. security guarantees and did not go nuclear. A simi-
lar trend was seen with South-Korea and Japan, after
the 2006 North-Korean nuclear test. Consequently, a
recent study conducted by scholars at Kings College
London discussed the enormous costs of developing
nuclear programs in the Middle East to concluded that
regional proliferation is not a very likely outcome at
all.

The second prominent argument for a military operation
against Iran claims that it will threaten the existence of
Israel. Statements by Iranian statesmen are cited to de-
monstrate the irrationality of Iranian leaders and their
intents to annihilate Israel. The Israeli Prime Minister,
Benjamin Netanyahu, has gone as far as comparing the
impacts of a nuclear-armed Iran to the Nazi Ho-
locaust.

Nevertheless the Iranian leaders should be perceived as
rational and fundamentally interested in the preservat-
ion of their regime. After the 1979 Islamic revolution,
Iran has been using its Islamic political identity to
obtain regional hegemony. Their statements should the-
refore be seen as a tool of Iranian soft power, aiming to
increase Irans regional influence in the anti-Israeli at-
mosphere of the Middle East. Moreover, they are fully
aware of the balance of power in the region. Not only
does the United States have very close military alliance
with Israel, but Israel is also estimated to have over 200
nuclear weapons with second strike capability. There-
fore, the costs of Iran using nuclear missiles to anni-
hilate Israel, for an Iranian regime focused on survival,
would be too grave to consider.
Likewise, the proponents of this military operat-
ion underestimate its complexities. The highly secured
Iranian nuclear facilities, unlike previous cases in Iraq
and Syria, are spread along a large country with some
centers buried deeply underground. According to U.S.
and Israeli assessments, a successful operation delays
Irans ambitions limiting its benefits to two to four
years.
However, its costs will be enormous. The debate
within the Iranian regime will shift in support of anti-
Western figures that favor military retaliation rather
than diplomacy. With a nationalistic society and anti-
Western regional sympathies, they will be supported.
As Iran has clarified, it may exit the Non-Proliferation
Treaty (NPT) to dismiss the current limited Internat-
ional Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) monitoring.

The-
reby it will have the justification to secretively develop
nuclear weapons on defensive grounds. Meanwhile, it
can blockade the strait of Hormuz; a critical oil trading
path, to threaten global economic recovery and mo-
bilize its proxies to undermine the Israeli and Ameri-
can interests. Indeed, if the Iranian regime is as irrat-
ional as the proponents of such operation claim, this
limited operation will turn into a full-scale war.
Considering its costs and benefits, a military operation
against Iran would be a deconstructive and harmful
approach that will fail to achieve its objective: preven-
ting a weaponized Iran. Diplomacy continues to have
the chance of clarifying Irans intentions and provi-
ding a successful agreement. But if it fails to do so,
deterring a nuclear Iran will be the politically painful
but strategically effective option. One that must in-
volve clear red lines by the international community
against use or spread of nuclear weapons by Iran,
military alliances to prevent an arms race and Cold-
War style communication networks with Tehran for
crisis management.

RAMTIN HAJIMONSHI is a second year
International Studies student
at Kings College London
The ceasefire reached between Israel and Hamas on 21st
November represents a surprising arc regarding Egypts
role in truce negotiations. Initial fears formed in the
aftermath of elections in May 2011 that the Muslim
Brotherhood would serve as bulwark to regional peace
prospects, have been shattered by the plaudits that have
reigned in on President Mohammad Morsi by the
international community. Arriving as an unknown
quantity, Morsi has effectively transitioned from the head
of an Islamist organisation that refuses to directly engage
with Israelis, to a man that is now Israels de facto
protector. Indeed, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
among others has praised Morsis personal leadership in
brokering the ceasefire. However, a call by Mohammed
Badei, the Muslim Brotherhoods top cleric, for jihad on
the liberation of Palestinian territories highlights the
fractious nature of the peace at hand.

The Israeli offensive, Operation Pillar of Defence which
began on 14th November saw some 1,500 airstrikes on
Hamas-related targets in Gaza, as Hamas and associated
militant groups deployed hundreds of rockets into Israel, a
few as far as Tel Aviv. More than 160 Palestinians and six
Israelis have been killed. The clashes represent the most
serious fighting since the Israeli invasion of Gaza in late
2008-early 2009. As Palestinian President Mahmoud
Abbass Fatah party remains impotent in the Gaza Strip,
alternative third parties remain in short supply.

Egypt has long celebrated its cultural and diplomatic
power in the region yet had appeared to become
exceedingly peripheral under previous president Hosni
Mubarak. Prior conflicts between Israel and Hamas would
see Mubarak distance himself from the Hamas leadership,
preferring to allow Israel to pick up the baton and sort
disputes themselves, while superficially placating the
Palestinians. Indeed, the comparison with the post-
Mubarak era is stark; Morsi has been at the forefront of
ceasefire negotiations.

Discussions during the crisis took place between the
Egyptian and Israelis through the intelligence services, in
which demands were forwarded from Hamas to Israel,
concurrent to direct talks with Hamas leaders in Gaza.
Morsi was delicately obliged to meet international
expectation while reflecting the wider Egyptian public
opinion, which overwhelmingly favours the Palestinian
cause. As such, a number of challenges await. First and
foremost, the Morsi administration in Cairo must prevent
the carriage of Iranian-assembled Fajr-5 medium-range
rockets via Sudan through the numerous Gaza border
tunnels.

The difficulty facing the Muslim Brotherhood government
is that Hamas is very much its political offspring, and as
such a degree of affinity is at hand. An important by-
product is that Morsi is not inhibited by a requirement to
limited Hamas gains from any truce. He made it explicit
during an address at the UN General Assembly in
September, that while the Muslim Brotherhood would
honour the 1978 Camp David peace treaty, it would also
seek to challenge the status quo.

Yet within this conundrum, the truce established requires
Hamas to prove it is still the guardian of the Palestinian
resistance movement. This includes restraining smaller
Salafist pockets within Gaza, particularly the Iran-backed
Islamic Jihad in Gaza. Should Gaza be stabilised with a
Hamas leadership, the greater likelihood of the strip morphing
into a second Palestinian statelet. Naturally, there are
limitations to the degree of responsibility both Cairo and Israel
will accept regarding Gaza.

With the opening of border crossings a key aspect of the
ceasefire, Egyptian influence is paramount. It remains highly
unlikely that Cairo would agree to open the Rafah crossing
without reciprocal action by Israel as Egypt is unwilling to bear
any liability from Gaza. To do so could severely impact
lingering hopes for a unified Palestinian state.

Nonetheless, the mobilisation of Israeli troops along the Gaza
border could have made this a reality. Had IDF troops invaded,
Morsi would have been under considerable pressure to open
Egypts north-eastern border to refugees. A great deal can be
learnt about Egypts newly found exalted position from Israel
willingness to engage with Morsi. Borne not so much
out of confidence in Morsi, Israels agreement is rather
a recognition and consciousness that Egypt represents
its best hope of restraining Hamas rocket attacks. The
Muslim Brotherhood, though a less flexible partner, is
now arguably a stronger partner.

Cairos enthusiasm for negotiating a ceasefire
agreement is perhaps influenced by the need to
establish a credible regime in a region on the back end
of the Arab Spring, and increase its standing in the
White House. Egypt is currently experiencing a
multitude of economic, social and political problems,
which some critics have argued are being neglected as
Morsi traverses the international arena. Crucially, the
constitutional writing process is rapidly deteriorating
along Islamist-liberal lines, as clashes erupt between
police and protesters on the streets of Cairo. These is
are likely to be exacerbated by a US$4.8bn IMF loan,
obliging it to end subsidies on items such as fuel that
will inevitably lead to price rises at a time of economic
suffering.

Nevertheless, the prospects for reconciliation are best
purported by Egypt. As Qatar and Turkey begin to
play vital roles in mediating conflicts across the
region, an emboldened Egypt on the international stage
is ideally placed to ensure the ceasefire holds. Hamas
is walking a tightrope should it violate the agreement
as it risks emerging from the conflict with a colossal
loss of sympathy. The essential caveat facing Hamas
would be if was forced to justify to President Morsi,
and not Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as
to why it placed Egypts newly found credibility on
the line.
FARAZ NASIR is analyst at a global risk
management company and a former MA student
in the War Studies department at
Kings College London.
Born amidst waves of revolution and independence from
neighbouring authoritarian regimes, Syrias struggle for de-
mocracy continues with no definite end in sight. President
Bashar al-Assad, of the Socialist Baath party, continues to
fend off domestic opposition in a bloody wrestle for power.
As we now step into the crisis second year, we should reflect
on the origins of the conflict and its impact in the internation-
al political arena.
To begin to understand what the future for Syria may look
like, it is important to examine the foundations of the current
conflict. Beginning in March 2011, waves of public protests
were triggered by the torture of a group of teenagers by state-
led police as punishment for painting revolutionary slogans
on their school wall in the southern city of Deera. Although
many press reports point to this as the origin of the conflict,
this event should be viewed more as the trigger to a crisis that
has deeper roots in the very nature of Assads regime.
As an American governmental report argues, the current cri-
sis has roots in Hafiz al Assads rise to power in 1970. Since
then, the Syrian people have been living in fear and repres-
sion with an elitist top-down decision-making government, a
strong police presence and a complete denial of many funda-
mental human and civil rights. Although the regime has at-
tempted to gain popular support through economic initiatives
such as Hafezs Euphrates Basin Development Project
(EBDP), which promised to bring electricity and irrigation to
rural and urban centres, as well as Hafez and Bashars em-
phasis on cultivating lucrative crops such as cotton and
wheat, the failure of these projects to meet the promises made
by the regime severely undermined their popularity. Jessica
Barnes agricultural study of Syria further elaborates on the
failure of such initiatives, by adding that the excessive use of
irrigation on export industrial crops and on key self-
sufficiency crops has not only damaged the salinity of farm-
land, but also amplified the water scarcity crisis in rural areas.
This has left many rural areas impoverished, and has led to
more disapproval of Assads leadership.
However, the present suffering of Syrian civilians overshad-
ows long established, underlying issues. Figures dating from
the end of 2012 estimate that the civilian death toll under the
hands of Assad and his government stand at around 40,000.
However, in early 2013, the United Nations (UN) estimates
argue that it stands closer to 60,000. Assads regime has uti-
lised Syrian security forces to tackle what they deem as un-
founded acts of extreme violence against the government.
Although bomb blasts and shootings now seem to be a daily
occurrence on the streets of main cities like Homs, massacres,
like the May 2012 killing of 108 people, which included the
deaths of 49 children, still have the ability to shock and high-
light the bloodshed occurring.
It is this extreme violence that has led to a further crisis with
long-term implications for the Syrian nation: the displace-
ment of hundreds of thousands, possibly even millions, of
refugees into bordering countries such as Jordan, Iraq, Leba-
non and Turkey. The population drain and destruction of
homes and entire cities will make rebuilding Syria a long and
treacherous task. One only needs to look to neighbouring
countries that have undergone civil war and revolution to un-
derstand that Syria will need significant amounts aid to re-
build from a crisis that still has no end in sight.
It is now widely believed that the end to the bloodshed will
only be possible through international intervention. The bru-
tality of Assads regime, and the increasing civilian death toll
have been widely reported in the western media, which have
long demanded an immediate intervention by international
powers. President Obama called for Assads resignation in
August 2011, lobbying the United Nations Security Council to
intercede and end the violence. However, the resolution failed
to pass after being vetoed by Russia and China. In April 2012,
the peace plan that had been negotiated by UN envoy Kofi
Annan, which saw observers being deployed to monitor a
ceasefire, also failed with the escalation of violence and Kofi
Anans subsequent resignation. Anans successor, Lakhdar
Brahimi, now handles the task of drawing agreement from
major powers, a task that is made even more difficult with As-
sads iron grip strengthening with the weakening of Syrias
divided opposition.
One decision the major powers continue to agree upon, how-
ever, is a rejection of military intervention. A growing number
of commentators argue that intervention is justifiable now,
more than ever, in the wake of escalating humanitarian crises,
as well as with the benefit of possibly severing Syrias close
ties with Iran. Nevertheless, the ghosts of the Iraq war cause
western hesitation, as intervention could trigger destabilization
that could escalate into a wider regional crisis and a never-
ending cycle of intervention. Although, even if major powers
were to be given a mandate to proceed, the problem remains
that Russia and China refuse to support military intervention,
and that Syria currently lacks a cohesive and credible political
body that could effectively govern in the wake of Assads
downfall.
Many hope that 2013 will see the end to the Syrian crisis with
the removal of Assad, and with it the slaughter of countless
civilians. But questions remain of who and how a resolution
should be created. The recent behaviour of major powers indi-
cate that they would prefer an internal solution be found, but if
this fails it will leave the major international powers hands as
bloody as Assads.
GEORGINA SINGER is a second year
International Studies student
at Kings College London
The results of this years election do not fix the chal-
lenges that Obama faced in his first term. Barack Obama
is still the president, Republicans are still the majority in
the House of Representatives and Democrats are still the
majority in the Senate. In his second-term Obama and
the executive branch will still have to win over a Repub-
lican-controlled House to pass legislation, developing
economies will continue to challenge the American glo-
bal hegemony and the economy remains the most im-
portant issue to most Americans.

According to the Center for Responsive Politics, the
price of this years election is more than six billion dol-
lars. It is the most expensive in American history, and
$700 million more than the 2008 election. The cost re-
veals one of the greatest weaknesses of democracy; it is
expensive. The result of all the spending is a govern-
ment that has hardly changed. Ironically government
spending was one of the most contentious topics in this
years election.

Due to the Electoral College system that the United Sta-
tes uses to elect their president, campaign funds and rall-

lies by the candidates were not distributed equally
throughout the country. Swing-states such as Florida
and Ohio received the most campaign funding,
because they traditionally have an even distribution of
Democratic and Republican votes. According to
CNN, Obama and Romney spent the most on political
advertisements in the states of Florida, Ohio, District
of Columbia, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. All
of them besides the District of Columbia are conside-
red swing-states.

However, the greatest flaw of the Electoral College
system is that it does not represent the popular vote.
In this years election Obama won 332 Electoral Col-
lege votes compared to Romneys 206, a result almost
as assuring as Obamas victory in 2008. What this
result fails to demonstrate is the evenness of the popu-
lar vote. Obama won 50.4 percent of the popular vote
compared to Romneys 48 percent.

The results of the
popular vote better demonstrate the competitiveness
between Republicans and Democrats compared to the
one-sided results of the Electoral College.

The Electoral College system has a history of under-
mining the role of the popular vote. In the 2000
election Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore
narrowly won the popular vote against his opponent
However, the greatest flaw of
the Electoral College system is
that it does not represent the
popular vote.
Republican George W. Bush. However, since Bush ex-
ceeded the threshold of 270 by winning 271 Electoral
College votes he was declared the victor of the election,
and thus secured his role as the president. If the election
were not decided through the Electoral College system
candidates would focus their campaigns throughout a
greater proportion of the nation instead of towards key
swing-states.

This years election will not empower Obamas in-
fluence on passing legislation; it may even reduce his
influence. One of the most pressing actions his cabinet
must initiate early in the second-term is to negotiate a
fiscal overhaul. If an agreement is not made this year,
the United States faces the risk of falling off the fiscal
cliff. This would lead to a combination of significant
spending cuts and tax increases. According to Bloom-
berg, this combination could put the United States back
in a recession, and shoot the unemployment rate back to
more than 9 percent from its current 7.9 percent.

Throughout the election Romney and the Republicans
attacked Obamas proposed tax plan, which includes
increasing the income tax on high-income households
and lowering the corporate tax while making it more
difficult for multinationals to avoid paying taxes on
their foreign income.

Democrats believe this strategy
will reduce the deficit, Republicans believe that the
plan would decrease spending, thus putting the country
back in a recession.

Obamas obstacle to reaching a deal for fiscal reform is
the current stalemate in Congress.

Republicans control
241 seats in the House of Representatives, compared to
the 192 Democratic seats, leaving Republicans with a
comfortable majority. To avoid falling off the fiscal
cliff Congress must consider the urgency of getting a
deal done to break its current stalemate. The Obama
and Romney camps both used persistent negative cam-
paigning to swing voters in their favor, which does not
encourage trust between the two parties. Distrust could
stall the process of breaking the stalemate and passing
a fiscal reform.
Not only is Congress polarized after the election, but
the much of the public is as well. According to the
Huffington Post every state in the union has filed a re-
quest to secede from the union after Obamas victory
announcement. The petitions are being filed through
the White Houses We The People online petition
tool. As of December 3
rd
the Texas petition has gathe-
red more than 118,430 signatures, which is more than
enough to be considered by the White House. Republi-
can Texas Governor Rick Perry is just one the many
high-ranking officials who have declined their support
for the petition. Even though it is extremely unlikely
that states will succeed, it does demonstrate that many
citizens distrust the government.

No country spends more on their head of state elections
than the United States, yet the result of this years
election are an identical government which will face
the same challenges encountered in Obamas first
term.

NICK SWYTER is a second year student
at the University of Miami, U.S.A.

35 Winter 2013 | Dialogue Dialogue | Winter 2013 36

Much has been said about Brazils rise in the global
arena along with the other BRIC countries (Russia,
India and China). However, can Brazil actually be-
come a global power? Does Brazil have what it takes
to be a recognised global force? This article will fo-
cus on some aspects of Brazils political, social and
economic structures to argue that the countrys rise is
hugely overestimated and until some issues are seri-
ously addressed, its full potential will not be realised.

When one thinks about Brazil, many images come to
mind: - the beaches, the Amazon and the carnivals.
The countrys social problems have become well
known abroad more recently though, perhaps due to a
number of films highlighting the issue of violence and
poverty, racism and inequality, or simply by the fact
that with Brazils economic rise, it was bound to be
examined more closely by international actors. It is
social inequality, however, that has long dragged the
country down in international comparisons and statis-
tics. Although some improvements have been made
(the Gini coefficient, which measures levels of ine-
quality, went from 0.602 in 1997 to 0.53 in 2010),
Brazil is still ranked amongst the top 15 countries
with the worst income distribution. Official data from
IBGE (Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statis-
tics) shows that the richest 10 per cent of Brazilian
families earn 50 per cent of the aggregate family in-
come, while the poorest 50 per cent only earn 10 per
cent.
Violence as a by-product of inequality and poverty is
another issue to tackle. Although the favelas in Rio
have been partly pacified, violence is a problem in the
whole country and recent deadly confrontations be-
tween the police and criminals in Sao Paulo, the
countrys largest city, which has left 140 dead, shows
that Brazil still has a lot to change, not least because
Sao Paulos rate of violence had actually been declin-
ing for the past decade.
..corruption seems to be so intrinsi-
cally entwined with the political
system that unless there is a politi-
cal reform, it will continue drag-
ging Brazil down.

Optimists would argue that as long as the economy
is growing, it is only a matter of time and invest-
ment until social issues are resolved. However, the
economic stability and growth seen in the past dec-
ade cannot be guaranteed to continue. Brazils rate
of investment remains low compared to some
Asian economies, which invest an average of 15 to
30 per cent of GDP, compared to Brazils 18 to 20
per cent. According to Werner Baer, the lack of
investment, especially in infrastructure, is and will
continue being a barrier for further growth.

Furthermore competitiveness remains low, as Bra-
zil ranks 64
th
out of 134 countries behind China,
South Africa, India and Russia, which are some of its
main competitors for a global power status partly due
to its poor educational system. The massive apprecia-
tion of its currency and the increased competition from
China, along with the burdensome tax and pension sys-
tems pose further challenges to the idea of continuous
growth in the next decades. Political corruption, which
has long been an issue in the country, has a negative
impact in the economy as well and although some high
profile cases have been judged (as the Mensalao case,
for instance), corruption seems to be so intrinsically
entwined with the political system that unless there is a
political reform, it will continue dragging Brazil down.

The last aspect to look at is military capacity. Although
there is nothing to say that a country without military
power cannot become a global power, this lack of mili-
tary authority can be a weakness in international secu-
rity issues. Amongst the BRIC countries, Brazil is the
one with the lowest ability to project military power
beyond its region. Although this does not necessarily
represent an issue in the countrys defence since South
America remains largely peaceful, it does pose a prob-
lem to its international intervention capacity (which is
an important aspect if Brazil wants a seat in the UN
Security Council). As a legacy of the transition from a
military regime to a democracy and the relative peace
of its region, the country neglected military im-
provements for years, to the point where in 2008
its military capacity reached its lowest level. Most
of its equipment is old and not fully operational
and the morale of its officers remains low due to
the low salaries and prestige. Although spending
has increased from 1.5% of GDP to 2.7%, there is
still much to do.

In conclusion, although there are many aspects of
modern Brazil that seem to indicate a potential for
global status, some domestic problems like vio-
lence and social inequality remain too important
and not enough has been done to solve them.
Moreover, although economic power is important,
it cannot be sustained in the long term unless some
deep reforms are made. Lastly, military power, or
the lack of thereof, poses a final problem to
Brazils ambitions of a global power status.
MARIA PIA TISSOT is a MA Student at the
Kings College London Brazil Institute
Who can imagine, today, solving the problems of the world without Brazil?
Brazils transformation into a global player has left the world fascinated by
the Brazilian models key political and economic components that have
founded its incredible success...
B
etter: with a GDP of US$2,518 billion in
2011, Brazil became the worlds sixth-largest
economy overtaking the UK. 69% of Brazilians say their
country is moving in the right direction and 71% that
Brazils current economic situation is very good.
BBB: while the credit grade of several European
countries dropped, Brazils improved from BBB- to
BBB in November 2011.
Barrel: Mao Zedong said: power comes out of the
barrel of a gun; today, power comes out of a barrel of
oil. President Lula stated: oil is Brazils passport for the
future and as Petrobras CEO states: Brazils oil indus-
try is doing very well. Petrobras ranked tenth worldwide
and fourth in oil and gas production.
Bolsa Famila: poverty dropped from 37.5% to
24.9% over 2001-2009; 23.4 million people were lifted
out of poverty. The growing consumption of the emerg-
ing middle class (53.9% of the population) boosts
Brazils economy: e.g. last August, it was the third-
largest market for car sales worldwide.
Batista, Eike: is the seventh richest man world-
wide. Brazils number of millionaires grew most world-
wide; the sum of their fortunes surpasses the EU coun-
tries international reserves.
R
ousseff, Dilma: Forbes designated
Brazils current President as third most power-
ful woman worldwide.
Reserves: in the last decade, Brazils international
reserves increased tenfold.
Rio de Janeiro: hosting two worldwide sports
events (the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Olympics) will put
Brazil in the spotlight and demonstrate its international
credibility.
A
griculture: Brazil is the worlds third-
largest agricultural exporter (40% of its produc-
tion is exported) and fifth-largest producer. Brazil ranks
first or second globally for the production and export of
many foodstuffs (e.g. half of world sugar trade and 30%
of world coffee trade).
Amazon rainforest: Brazil actively partici-
pates in environmental debates and hosted the 2012
Rio+20 conference .
African or Arab countries: Brazil showed
interest in diversifying its commercial and political
partners. If Africa was a single commercial partner for
Brazil, it would rank fourth. Brazil has the fifth largest
number of embassies in Africa. Compared to his BRIC
counterparts, President Lula is the BRIC leader who has
travelled to Africa the most. He was the first Brazilian
Head of State to officially visit the Middle East, and it
was Brazil who hosted the first South American-Arab
countries Summit.
Aid: aid provided by BRICS to poor nations over
2005-2010 grew ten times faster than that provided by
the G7. Brazils assistance spending reached US$1.2
billion in 2010, showing its ambition to project greater
influence in developing nations. Moreover Brazil im-
plements local variations of successful national initia-
tives, like 23 Bolsa Familia inspired projects.
S
pringboard: Brazil encourages regional
integration initiatives: Dilma Rousseff suggested
South American states could be stronger together. This
illustrates Brazils desire to strengthen regional cooper-
ation and use South America as a platform for econom-
ic development and a sphere of political influence, al-
lowing Brazil to play a greater international role. For
95% of Brazilian diplomats, Argentina, which Dilma
Rousseff visited on her first Presidential trip, is a coun-
try of vital interest to Brazil. 78% of Brazilian diplo-
mats consider Mercosur, the engine of South Ameri-
ca, to be beneficial to Brazil.
Soy: Brazil significantly increased its participation in
worldwide trade. China, which imports soy and iron
ore, has become Brazils first commercial partner and
has stimulated Brazils economy.
Security Council: Brazils strongest claim to
international recognition is a seat on the United Nations
Security Council, where Brazil sat ten times as a non-
permanent member from 1946 to 2011. Brazil has also
been leading the Stabilisation Mission in Haiti
(MINUSTAH) since 2004.
Soft power: Brazil rejects using force to solve
conflicts and strongly promotes negotiation, relying on
its tradition of diplomacy and soft power for global
influence.
I
MF: 1) Brazil advocates for the multi-
polarisation and democratisation of the world
order, with greater participation of emerging powers in
world affairs and international organisations. 2) Having
long been a recipient of international financial aid, Bra-
zil now contributes to the IMF rescue fund for the EU.
Investments: Brazil was the No.5 destination of
FDI in 2011, the largest target in Latin America, and
the No. 1 destination for Chinese investments in 2010.
So Paulo ranked fourth among the top ten cities world-
wide that received most foreign investments.
Immigration: Brazil has become an attractive
destination in the hemisphere, receiving twice as many
international migrants in 2010 as in 2000.
Itaipu: Brazil invests in renewable energies. In
2011, Brazil was the No. 10 investor in clean energy
and recorded the third-largest installed capacity growth.
Hydropower represents 86.3% of Brazils power gener-
ation. Itaipu is the second largest dam worldwide, after
Chinas Three Gorges, and Brazils Belo Monte dam
will rank third.

Iran: Lulas government strongly supported Irans
right to a civilian nuclear program. Brazil, Iran and
Turkey signed an agreement in 2010, proposing an
alternative to UN sanctions.
L
andmass: the national anthem depicts
Brazil as a giant: its landmass (three times
Argentinas) and population (half of South Ameri-
cans) place it as fifth worldwide.
Leader: Representing 60% of South Americas
GDP, Brazils GDP is double Mexicos and six times
Argentinas; who respectively stand as the 14th and
27th economies worldwide. Latin Americans, particu-
larly in Mercosur, consider Brazil the friendliest
country of the region and that with most leadership,
ahead of the US and Venezuela.
Lula: Brazils former President, the most success-
ful of his time according to Time Magazine, became
the emblematic figure of a transformed Brazil.

85%
of Brazilian diplomats think Bra-
zil has a more significant international role than ten
years ago and 91% believe it should have a stronger
international presence in the future. Antonio Patriota,
current Brazilian Minister of Foreign Affairs, said:
to talk about the BRICS is to talk in superlatives; to
talk about Brazil is to discuss the giant whose future
mirrors its greatness.

MATHILDE CHATIN is a PhD Candidate
at Kings College London Brazil Institute
00 Winter 2012 | Dia-
Presidents message
Over the past term the KCL Politics Society has
continued moving ever forward with an increasing
ambition to innovatively inform and engage our
members in political affairs. While the first half of
autumn highlighted a very distinctive period in the
history of our society, the remaining was a testimony
of our commitment to our principles and objectives.

We kicked off the year with an active presence in the
KCLSU Freshers Fair; we found it incredibly
motivating to meet so many students from a wide
variety of backgrounds and disciplines who were
keen to get involved. The increasing interest in the
KCL Politics Society was then reflected by the
presence of over 200 people in a packed lecture
theatre for our opening event.

It was also during this time that we announced an
exclusive pre-premier of the critically acclaimed film
Grassroots; a political comedy on U.S. politics, at
Londons Haymarket Theatre. The screening was
then followed by a discussion with the films director
and political experts. We are proud to say that this
event was the first of its kind by a student-led
political society in London. It was an exciting way to
bring politics out of its abstract context and engage
our members with political affairs in an entertaining
manner. We have since continued our mission with a
commitment to our original objectives and organized
a series of conferences and workshops that have
covered a diverse range of topics with experts ranging
from academics and journalists to senior diplomats
and attracted a significant group of students.

Consequently, it is fair to say that the past autumn has
been a great success for the Society. Not only have
we met all our objectives, but we did so with your
active support for every one of our projects.
Therefore it should come as no surprise that the
Societys membership has already increased six fold.
In addition to this, our internationally acclaimed
journal, Dialogue, has proven to be very successful
with readership spanning 13 different countries and 5
continents. It is with your support that we are
confident of the Societys future, and we look
forward to your continued engagement. Thank you!

Ramtin Hajimonshi
KCL Politics Society President

The European External Service: The EUs telephone number in the making?
http://euobserver.com/opinion/31488

http://ecfr.eu/blog/entry/divided_and_irrelevant

http://eeas.europa.eu/background/docs/organisation_en.pdf

https://www.ideals.uiuc.edu/bitstream/handle/2142/27707/EndofNationalEuropeanArmies.pdf?sequence=2 ,
p. 15-20, Jolyon Howorth, The European Union in (In-)Action: Brussels and the Arab Spring

http://dseu.lboro.ac.uk/Documents/Policy_Papers/DSEU_Policy_Paper08.pdf Frauke Austermann, Towards
Embassies for Europe?

INSIDE: A Modern Greek Tragedy
D. Oakley, K. Hope, Greece Downgraded over High Debt, found in Financial Times, December 8, 2009.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2763a1d6-e3fc-11de-b2a9-00144feab49a.html#axzz2D8tP1jeJ

N. Weeks, Greece Steps Up Tax Evasion Crackdown with Asset Freezes, found in Bloomberg News, Sep-
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Greeces Debt Burden: How to end the agony, found in the Economist, 10
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November 2012.
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heavily-indebted-poor

I. Siakantaris, Why arent prices falling? (in Greek: ;), found in LIFO Magazine,
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OECD, OECD Harmonized Unemployment Rates. News Release: September 2012, November 13, 2012,
Paris.
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E. Kirschbaum, Suicides have Greeks on Edge before Elections, found in Reuters, April 29, 2012.
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M. Lowen, Meeting the new homeless on Greeces freezing streets, found in BBC World News, February
4, 2012.
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Article in the official University of Cambridge website.
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Poll by Public Issue, Political Barometer 114 (in Greek: 114), November 12, 2012.

Human Rights Watch Report, Hate on the Streets. Xenophobic Violence in Greece, July 10, 2012.
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Italys Political Elites: Out with the old, in with the old

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<http://www.governo.it/Presidente/Biografia/biografia_it.html>

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Dinmore, Guy. "Time Super Mario Showed the Full Monti." Financial Times. N.p., 29 June 2012. Web. 16
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Frye, Andrew. "Italians Dodge Property Tax in Test for Montis Austerity." Bloomberg. N.p., 21 June 2012.
Web. 16 Nov. 2012. <http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-20/italians-openly-dodge-property-tax-in-
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"Profile: Silvio Berlusconi, Ex-Italian Prime Minister." BBC News. BBC, 26 Oct. 2012. Web. 16 Nov. 2012.
<http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11981754>.

Westcott, Kathryn. "At Last - an Explanation for 'bunga Bunga'" BBC News. BBC, 02 May 2011. Web. 16
Nov. 2012. <http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-12325796>.

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_STAT-09-23_en.htm?locale=en

Lenzo, Giuseppe. "Beppe Grillo, Biggest Shake-up in Today's Italy | OpenDemocracy."Open Democracy.
N.p., 4 July 2011. Web. 16 Nov. 2012. <http://www.opendemocracy.net/giuseppe-lenzo/beppe-grillo-biggest-
shake-up-in-today%E2%80%99s-italy>.

Rabazzi, Valentina. "Politici Italiani Strapagati: Guadagnano 20.600 Euro Al Mese, Il Quadruplo Degli
Spagnoli E Il Doppio Dei Tedeschi." Valdelsa.net. N.p., 16 Oct. 2009. Web. 17 Nov. 2012. <http://
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Lenzo, Giuseppe. "Beppe Grillo, Biggest Shake-up in Today's Italy | OpenDemocracy."Open Democracy.
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shake-up-in-today%E2%80%99s-italy>.

Grillo, Beppe. "Passaparola - Comunicato Politico Numero Cinquantatre." Web log post.MoVimento. N.p., 28
Oct. 2012. Web. 16 Nov. 2012. <http://www.beppegrillo.it/movimento/>.

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Subacchi, Paula. "Normalising Italy." European Daily. N.p., 19 Sept. 2012. Web. 18 Nov. 2012. <http://
europeandaily.com/europe/2012/09/19/normalising-italy>.

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2008. Web. 18 Nov. 2012. <http://www.reuters.com/article/2008/04/10/us-italian-women-
idUSMAR04186620080410>.

Comment: Russia Reform or Revert

Russian Politics The Paradox of a Weak State, Marie Mendras, Hurst&Co 2012
Beyond the Putin System, Mikhail Kasyanov, Chatham House 2009
The Modernization of Russia: Possibilities and Limits, Alexander Voloshin, 2010

How to Market a Nation

E. Bernays, The Marketing of National Policies: A Study of War Propaganda, Journal of Marketing, vol. 6,
no. 3, 1942, p. 236

G. Lakoff, Dont Think of an Elephant! Know Your Values and Frame the Debate, Chelsea Green Publishing
Company, Vermont, 2004, p. 3

Associated Press in Taipei, China Passports Claim Ownership of South China Sea and Taiwan, The Guar-
dian, 23 November 2012, online, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/nov/23/china-passports-ownership-
sea-taiwan, 25 November 2012
Thank You for Smoking, dir. Jason Reitman, prod. David O. Sacks and Edward R. Pressman, 92 min., Fox
Searchlight Pictures, 2006, DVD

For an explanation of the Chinese concept of human rights, see Sonya Sceats and Shuan Breslin, China and
the International Human Rights System, Chatham House, 2012, pp. 7-9

Full Text of Hu Jintaos Report at 18
th
Party Congress, Xinhua News Agency, 17 November 2012, online,
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/special/18cpcnc/2012-11/17/c_131981259.htm, 25 November 2012; Xi
Jinping Urges to Develop Socialism with Chinese Characteristics, Xinhua News Agency, 18 November 2012,
online, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2012-11/18/c_123966991.htm, 25 November 2012

Time for an Indian Al Jazeera

BBC News: UK to End Financial Aid to India by 2015, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-20265583

Al Nawawy, M. and Iskander, A., Al Jazeera: The Story of the Network that is Rattling Governments and Re-
defining Modern Journalism, Westview Press, 2003

Amartya Sen, The Argumentative India, Picador, 2006

Kumar S., An Indian Personality of Television, Jump Cut, no. 43, July 2000

Khilnani, S. India as a Bridging Power, Foreign Policy Centre, London, 2005

Lost In The Fog of War: Deterring a Nuclear Iran

Hobbs, Christopher. Moran, Matthew Would a Nuclear Iran Really Trigger a New Arms Race in the Middle
East, Guardian, December 2012 <http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/julian-borger-global-security-blog/2012/
dec/19/iran-nuclear-middle-east-arms-race> [Accessed 1 January 2013]

Reuters Netanyahu Defends Comparison of Iran, Nazi Holocaust, Guardian, June 2010 <http://http://
www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/18/us-israel-iran-netanyahu-idUSBRE83H1EF20120418> [Accessed 1 De-
cember 2012]

Pollack, Kenneth Deterring a Nuclear Iran: The Devil in the Details, Council on Foreign Relations, June
2010 <http://www.cfr.org/iran/deterring-nuclear-iran/p22292> [Accessed 1 December 2012]

Syria: An End in Sight?
BBC News. The Syria Conflict: Online Reports. (2012-2013). [Date accessed: 7/01/13].

Jeremy M. Sharp, and Christopher M. Blanchard. "Armed Conflict in Syria: US and International Re-
sponse." (2012).

Jessica Barnes. Managing the Waters of Bath Country: The Politics of Water Scarcity in Syria. (2009). Geo-
politics,14:3, p. 510 530.

Abigail Fielding-Smith.UN puts Syrian death toll at 60,000 in The Financial Times [online edition]. 2
nd
Jan-
uary 2013. [Date accessed: 3/01/13].

Mark N. Katz. Intervention vs Non-Intervention in Syria : Assessing Costs and Benefits for the West in e-
International Relations [online]. 4
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September 2012. [Date accessed: 28/12/12].

U.S. Election Results: The Price of Democracy

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Web. 26 Nov. 2012. <http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/candidates.html>.

The Economist. "Much Ado about Nothing." The Economist. The Economist Newspaper, 10 Nov. 2012. Web.
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last-much-ado-about-nothing>.

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Web. 26 Nov. 2012. <http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21565995-niche-campaigning-negativity
-and-nitty-gritty-organisation-put-barack-obama-back/print>.

The Huffington Post. "Obama vs. Romney Electoral Map." The Huffington Post. N.p., 6 Nov. 2012. Web. 26
Nov. 2012. <http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map>.

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Web. 26 Nov. 2012. <http://www.cnbc.com/id/49906631/
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Linkins, Jason. "Residents In All 50 States File Petitions To Secede From United States." The Huffington
Post. TheHuffingtonPost.com, 14 Nov. 2012. Web. 26 Nov. 2012. <http://
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Reddy, Sudeep. "'Fiscal Cliff' Debate Hits Airwaves." Wall Street Journal. News Corporation, 23 Nov. 2012.
Web. 26 Nov. 2012. <http://online.wsj.com/article/
SB10001424127887324712504578137371492840186.html>.

Salant, Jonathan. "Election Costs to Exceed $6 Billion in 2012, Research Group Says." Bloomberg. N.p., 31
Oct. 2012. Web. 26 Nov. 2012. <http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-31/election-costs-to-exceed-6-
billion-in-2012-research-group-says.html>.

Stone, Marci. "Texas Succession Request Gathers over 113,000 Signatures in Historic Move." Examiner.com.
N.p., 17 Nov. 2012. Web. 26 Nov. 2012. <http://www.examiner.com/article/texas-succession-request-gathers-
over-113-000-signatures-historic-move>.

WJLA. "2012 Election: Economic Impact of the Election." WJLA 7. ABC, 7 Nov. 2012. Web. 26 Nov. 2012.
<http://www.wjla.com/articles/2012/11/2012-election-economic-impact-of-the-election--81833.html>.

Brazil: Challenging Times
World Bank, Brazil country Brief, <http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/
LACEXT/BRAZILEXTN/0,,menuPK:322351~pagePK:141132~piPK:141107~theSitePK:322341,00.html >
[Accessed 18 November 2012]

World Bank, Gini Index < http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI/> [Accessed 16 November
2012]

B. Reiter (2009). Inequality and School Reform in Bahia: Brazil, International Review of Education 55,p.
347.

John Lyons, Death Toll Mounts in Brazil as Police Face Down Gangs, Wall Street Journal, 11 November
2012 <http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324894104578112912555396072.html> [Accessed 19
November 2012]

Werner Baer, The Brazilian Economy, Growth and Development, London, Lynne Rienner Publishers Inc,
2008, p.402.

Paulo Sotero, Brazils rising ambition in a shifting global balance of power, Politics, vol.30, no.S1 (2010),
p.72.

Andrew Hurrell (2010) Brazil and the New Global Order, Current History, 109 (724), p. 6.

Worth the Wait, The Economist, 29 September 2012 [Accessed 15 November 2012] < http://
www.economist.com/node/21563734>

Joao Fabio Bertonha (2010) Brazil: An Emerging Military Power? The Problem of the Use of Force in Brazil-
ian International Relations in the 21
st
Century, Revista Brasileira de Politica Internacional, 53(2), p.109.

Brazil: an inspiring success story

Anker & TNS (2012), ITUC Global Poll.

Among the BRICS: equals Russia, above India (BB-), below China (AA-) and South Africa (BBB+).

Graa Foster, CEO of Petrobras, ranked 20th in Forbes Worlds 100 Most Powerful Women and third in
Latin America (after Dilma Rousseff and Cristina Kirchner).

Forbes (2012) Worlds Biggest Public Companies.

Behind China and the US, overtaking Japan.
Jornal do Brasil (2012) Brasil 3 no ranking de vendas de carros; China lder.

The European External Service: The EUs telephone number in the making?
www.globalpublicsquareblog.com/nov1/europ-municipalicaton-steps/
INSIDE: a modern greek tragedy?
htp://blogs.r.fdata.co.uk/gavyndavies/fles/2012/05/143777409.jpg
Italys Politcal Elites: Out with the old, in with the old.
htp://deutsche-wirtschafs-nachrichten.de
htp://www.thefrontpage.it
RussiaReform of Revert
htp://blogs.f.com/beyond-brics/2012/03/27/vtb-in-talks-to-buy-ingosstrakh-stake/#axzz2EH7hSTyt
A conservatve perspectve on an EU In/Out Referendum
htp://esharp2.ttp.eu/Media/Images/EU-UK-fags
www.londoncf.org
How to Market a Naton
htp://cummingsillustraton.blogspot.co.uk/2010/10/xi-jinping-chinas-new-leader-in-waitng.html
htp://wellisphotography.photoshelter.com/image/I0000KSNlCK9RrGk
htp://www.etsy.com/listng/103254159/china-town-addict-vintage-chinese
Time for an Indian Al Jazeera
htp://fractalenlightenment.com/711/culture/indian-temples-of-newspapers-rats-and-visa
htp://lotustravel.nl/India21dagen_2.html
Changing Face, Changing Policies in China
Reuters
Lost in the Fog of War: Deterring a Nuclear Iran
htp://jewishworldnews.org/2012/03/15/op-ed-israel-has-a-legal-case-for-striking-iran/
htp://csis.org/blog/creatve-thinking-and-irans-nuclear-program
The Egyptan Equaton
Unpublished, picture by Sunniva Rebecka Skjeggestad
Syria: an end in sight?
Associated Press
U.S. Electon Results: The Price of Democracy?
htp://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y55/Raketmensch/donkey.jpg
htp://daybreakshow.fles.wordpress.com/2012/10/920-nb-republican-elephant.jpg
Brazil: Challenging Times
www.fotopedia.com
www.forbes.com
www.natonalgeographic.com
htp://www.bestlifestyle.us/all/list-latest-21.html
Brasil: an inspiring success story
Sean Gallup/Gety Images

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