Optimum Operasi danKeandalan

SistemTenagaListrik
Oleh:
Prof. OntosenoPenangsang, Ph.D
Dr. Eng. RonySetoWibowo
LaboratoriumSimulasi SistemTenagaListrik
TeknikElektro ITS Surabaya
Contents
Basic Probability Theory
Application of Binomial Distribution
Generation System Reliability Analysis
Transmission System Reliability Analysis
Distribution System Reliability Analysis
DAFTAR PUSTAKA
Roy Billinton, Ronald N Allan, Reliability
Evaluation of Engineering Systems Plenum
Press : New York, 1992
Roy Billinton, Ronald N Allan, Reliability
Evaluation of Power Systems Plenum Press :
New York, 1996
Robert L. Sullivan, Power System Planning,
McGraw-Hill, 1977
Basic Probability Theory
Oleh:
Dr. Eng. RonySetoWibowo
LaboratoriumSimulasi SistemTenagaListrik
TeknikElektro ITS Surabaya
Probability Concept
Mathematically, it is a numerical index that can vary
between zero to unity
Probability of success and failure can formulated as
follows:
Example
Anggapkitamelempar duabuahdadu
sekaligus, berapapeluangkitamendapatkan
angkatotal dadu9?
Permutations and Combinations
The number of permutations of n different items is the
number of ways these items can be arranged
The number of combinations of n different items is the
number of different selections of r items, each without
regard to the order or arrangement of the items in the
groups
Example
Anggapkitamempunyai 3 buahbukudengan
namaA, B danC. Berapakemungkinankita
menyusunketigabukutersebut?
Berapakemungkinankomposisi panitiayang
terdiri dari 3 orang, dimanajumlahorangyang
akankitapilihadalah4 orang?
Rules for Combining Probabilities
Rule 1 Independent events
Rule 2 Mutually exclusive events
Rule 3 Complementary events
Rule 4 Conditional events
Rule 5 Simultaneous occurrence of events
Rule 6 Occurrence of at least one if two
events
Rule 7 Application of conditional probability
Example
Suatupabrikmempunyai 2 plant. Plant 1
membuat 70% barangyang dibutuhkandan
plant lainnyamenghasilkan30%. Jika90 %
produkplant 1 memenuhi standard dan80%
produkplant 2 memenuhi standard. Berapa
peluangpabriktersebut menghasilkanproduk
yang memenuhi standard?
Probability Density Function
The summation of
probabilities should equal
unity
Probability density Function
(a) Separate data
(b) Grouped data
Probability Distributions Function
PDF is obtained by
summating the density
function (numerically,
integrating)
Discrete random variable :
(a) Separate data
(b) Grouped data
Probability Distributions
Continuous random
variable :
(a) Probability
distribution function f(x)
(b) Probability density
function F(x)
Mathematical Expectation
Moments of distribution, also known as
expected value, is referred to as the average
value or population mean
Example
The data of copper length measurement are as
follows :
5,97 5,97 5,98 5,98 5,98 5,99
5,99 5,99 5,99 5,99 6 6
6 6 6 6,01 6,01 6,02
6,02 6,02
Determine the average length of the copper?
Variance and Standard Deviation
A measure of dispersion of a distribution is
defined as Variance V(x)
Standard deviation
Example
The data of copper length measurement are as
follows :
5,97 5,97 5,98 5,98 5,98 5,99
5,99 5,99 5,99 5,99 6 6
6 6 6 6,01 6,01 6,02
6,02 6,02
Determine the variance and standard deviation?
Application of the Binomial
Distribution
Oleh:
Dr. Eng. RonySetoWibowo
LaboratoriumSimulasi SistemTenagaListrik
TeknikElektro ITS Surabaya
General Characteristic
Binomial distribution can be represented by
general expression :
(p+q)
2
Required conditions are :
Fixed number of trial
Two possible outcomes : success ad failure
Probabilities of success and failure are remain
constant
All trial must be independent
Example
Binomial Coefficients
One essential aspect of the binomial
distribution is to evaluate nCr
1
1 1
1 2 1
1 3 3 1
1 4 6 4 1
Expected value
Expected value of binomial distribution can be
expressed as follows:
Finally,
E(x) =np
Example
A small generating plant is to be designed to
satisfy a constant 10 MW load. Four alternatives
are being considered:
1. 1 x 10 MW unit
2. 2 x 10 MW unit
3. 3 x 5 MW unit
4. 4 x 3
1
/
3
MW unit
Unavailable probability of each unit is equal to
0.02andtherefore, theprobabilityof availableis
0.98. Please develop capacity outage probability
tables.
Capacity Outage Probability
Expected Load Losses
Investment Costs of Plant
Expected Load Curtailment
Effect of Unavailability
System Risk with One Unit in Reserve
Generation System Reliability
Analysis
Oleh:
Dr. Eng. RonySetoWibowo
LaboratoriumSimulasi SistemTenagaListrik
TeknikElektro ITS Surabaya
Introduction
Generation system planning is one of the
crucial steps in modern electric utility.
Generation expansion plan must satisfy
customer needs for reasonably price, reliable
and quality.
The electricity industry is a very capital
intensive industry
Expansion plan should attract new investors
Expansion Plan Consideration
Uncertainty of load in the future
Unit reliability and maintenance schedules
Fuel Costs
Environment Issues
Construction Costs
Construction Times
Financial Support
Reliability Indices
Reliability indices mostly used in generation
system expansion are :
Loss of Load Probability (LOLP)
Expected Value of Demand not served (DNS)
Frequency and Duration (FD)
Practical Generation Planning
In Practical, the considerations are :
Load Growth
Construction Time
Availability of Sites
Availability of Fuel
then, detailed reliability analysis is required to
ensure that all satisfying the desired reliability
level
Probabilistic Generating Unit Models
Mainly, generation systems consist of many type
of generators. They can be categorized as the
following :
Based Load units. Capacity factor : 90 95 %.
Nuclear, Coal Steam Turbine units
Midrange units. Capacity factor : 30 75 %.
Combine Cycle units, Steam Turbine Units
Peakers. Capacity factor : 5 10 %. Gas
turbines and Hydro units
Transmission System Reliability
Analysis
Oleh:
Dr. Eng. RonySetoWibowo
LaboratoriumSimulasi SistemTenagaListrik
TeknikElektro ITS Surabaya
Distribution System Reliability
Analysis
Oleh:
Dr. Eng. RonySetoWibowo
LaboratoriumSimulasi SistemTenagaListrik
TeknikElektro ITS Surabaya