Centre for Disaster Preparedness and Management

Disaster Risk Management

Midterm Exam
Adnann safi
4/8/2014

1 | P age A d n a n A n w a r
Table of Contents
Disaster Risk Assessment ...................................................................................................... 3
Purpose of Risk Assessment; ............................................................................................. 3
Characteristics of Risk Assessment; ................................................................................... 4
Components of DRA: ........................................................................................................ 4
1. Hazard Assessment or hazard identification ............................................................ 4
2. Vulnerability Assessment: ....................................................................................... 4
3. Capacity Assessment:.............................................................................................. 4
4. Peoples Perception: ................................................................................................ 5
DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT DESIGN ......................................................................... 5
Steps in Disaster Risk Assessment: .................................................................................... 5
Step #1 RISK ASSESSMENT ........................................................................................ 6
RISK: ................................................................................................................................ 6
Creation of Risk: ............................................................................................................ 6
Types of Risk ................................................................................................................. 6
On the basis of level three types of risk .......................................................................... 6
IDENTIFICATION OF RISK ........................................................................................ 6
Elements at Risk; ........................................................................................................... 7
Source of Risk: .............................................................................................................. 7
Information about Risk: ................................................................................................. 7
Intensity of Risk: ............................................................................................................ 8
Frequency; ..................................................................................................................... 8
Magnitude: ..................................................................................................................... 8
Risk Assessment ................................................................................................................ 8
Why we do Risk Assessment; ........................................................................................ 8
Risk identification on community level: or in a particular area ....................................... 9
Ways of Managing Risk ................................................................................................. 9
Step #2 HAZARD ASSESSMENT .............................................................................. 10
Factors to be considered during hazards assessment ..................................................... 10
Information required for hazard assessment.................................................................. 10
Factors to consider in understanding the nature & behavior of hazards ......................... 10
TOOLS FOR HAZARD ASSESSMENT......................................................................... 11
1. Hazard Mapping: .................................................................................................. 11
2. Historical Profile: .................................................................................................. 11
2 | P age A d n a n A n w a r
3. Seasonal Calendars: .............................................................................................. 11
4. Hazard Matrix: ...................................................................................................... 11
Step #3 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT ................................................................ 12
Vulnerability: .................................................................................................................. 12
Categories of Vulnerability/Types ................................................................................... 12
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT ............................................................................... 13
Characteristics of Vulnerability Assessment ................................................................. 13
Step #4 CAPACITY ASSESSMENT ............................................................................ 14
In capacity assessment: ................................................................................................ 14
Characteristics of Capacity: .......................................................................................... 14
Classification of Capacity: ........................................................................................... 14
Triggers for Capacity Development:............................................................................. 14
Level of Capacity: ........................................................................................................ 14
FLOOD ASSESSMENT ..................................................................................................... 14
Global Tend in Disaster ....................................................................................................... 15
Cause of Global Trend Disaster: ...................................................................................... 16


















3 | P age A d n a n A n w a r
Disaster Risk Assessment
Disaster Risk Assessment is a systematic process to understand the possible disaster
situation and predict the severity of possible future hazards, its damaging effects, the
needs and available resources at a certain location.
Disaster Risk Assessment at the community level is a participatory process of
determining the nature, scope and magnitude of negative effects of hazards to the
community and its households within a predicted time period (ADPC).
Disaster Risk Assessment Is the process of determining:
o The impact which a hazard has had on a society
o The needs and priorities for immediate emergency measures to save and
sustain the lives of survivors.
o The resources available
o The possibilities for facilitating and expediting long-term recovery and
development.

Disaster risk Assessment is a process (usually undertaken in phases) of collecting,
interpreting and analyzing information from various sources.

Risk assessment is a process to determine the nature and extent of risk; analyzing potential
hazards and; evaluating existing conditions of vulnerability and capacity

The process of risk assessment is based on:
Both technical features of hazards such as their location, intensity and probability,
Analysis of the physical, social and economic dimensions of vulnerability,
While taking into account the coping capabilities and resources

Purpose of Risk Assessment;
1. To answer the questions about frequency and severity of potential hazards and
national and community vulnerabilities
2. To identify the hazard to which the area you are assessing is susceptible
(susceptibility) is capacity the same to vulnerability (exposure)
3. To determine the acceptable level of risk in the community based on peoples
perception e.g. earthquake prone areas we observe or we conduct questionnaires, we
need to know perception of people about the hazard, they active or passive?
4. To determine the available resources to cope with disaster and hazard (resources can
be taken in capacity it will enhance your capacity. Experts and trained are important,
their existence is important.
5. To provide alternatives for decision makers in decision making process and in policy
formulations e.g. if we want to construct a tunnel.
6. To mobilize and facilitate the resources in the community



4 | P age A d n a n A n w a r
Characteristics of Risk Assessment;
1. As a multi hazard process
Based on damaged area e.g. flood will damage less area as compared to
earthquake we take different hazards and asses it
2. DRA is multi level process
E.g. high, medium, and low risk it depends on your objectives
3. DRA is multi sectoral process
Access the risk of different sectors, first focus is on human beings, agricultural
land /area.
4. Its a multi stakeholder process
(DM who can contribute in different events. E.g. asses drought
Agricultural Dep, irrigation Dep, to know about their resources and capacity,
data is taken for metrological Dep to take the data of rainfall
NDMA, PDAM, ENGINEERING DEP, construction
5. DRA is a multi phase process (DM cycle have different phases)
Identification of risk
Planning for the risk
Implementation
Monitoring and evaluation of the project or risk
All above is risk phases

Components of DRA:
Four main components of disaster risk assessments which are interrelated to each other:
1. Hazard Assessment or hazard identification
To determine the likelihood/ occurrence or chances of any natural or man-made
hazard or threat in the community
To determine the root cause of hazard:
o flood (heavy rainfall, deforestation, erosion)
To determine the intensifying factor/underline causes.
o (moisture in soil, rising o water table, no mitigative measure
Nature and behavior of the hazard
o Frequency of occurrence, speed, velocity
o Behavior : effects
2. Vulnerability Assessment:
Is the process in which we identify the elements at risk
Causes of those elements at risk that why they are vulnerable or at risk
Their unsafe condition and root causes as well as underline factors/
intensifying factors of those elements at risk
Main cause of vulnerability is poverty in under developing countries
3. Capacity Assessment:
In this process we identify the peoples coping strategies, resources available for
preparedness, mitigation and emergency response, and who has access to and control
over these resources
5 | P age A d n a n A n w a r
4. Peoples Perception:
To identify the perception of local community (we will heterogeneous groups) rich +
poor +all types of people interview) and also including different sectors. And then to
identify the risk based on people perception, then categorize the risk of the
community on the basis of level of risk, nature and behavior of risk and magnitude of
risk.
DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT DESIGN
We take seven steps in DRAD
Steps Objectives Outcomes
Step#
1
Describe hazard in the community List and nature of hazard
Step#2 Conduct hazard mapping (manual mapping
and advance mapping (GIS) we involve
community then they make maps
Resources available will identify ,
elements at risk, digitalize map (with the
help of hazard mapping)
Step#3 To describe the social vulnerability and social
capacities (to identify human resources)
Relation between man and women between
aged people how much is skilled people to
identify these
To identify CVA (capacity vulnerability
assessment)
Step#4 To determine disaster risk , present with the
help of maps, graphs, Venn diagram
To comprehensive list of risks food by
community
Step#5 Rank disasters Risk
On the basis of occurrence, exposure,
vulnerability, resources available
Prioritize the list of risk
Step#6 Decide on acceptable level of risk Agreed level of risk for family and
community
Step#7 Decide the preventive measures, mitigative
measure or transfer of risk
To develop strategies, planning in
reducing of risk in the community

Steps in Disaster Risk Assessment:
The assessment process has four steps
I. Risk Assessment
II. Hazard Assessment
III. Vulnerability Assessment
IV. Capacity Assessment


6 | P age A d n a n A n w a r
Step # 1 RISK ASSESSMENT
RISK:
Probability or likelihood of something happening in the future, which has negative
consequences Something going wrong in future which have negative impact on economy and
human/community
Risk=
Hazard x VuIncrabIIIty
CapacIty

Creation of Risk:
Risk creates between extreme natural event and vulnerable environmental condition
Types of Risk
Acceptable Risk:
o The absorption capacity of individual community is acceptable
o Those types of risk which is easily absorb by individual, family, community or
nation. E.g. a community poor +rich both lives
o Rich income is 50,000
o E.g. flood can make a loss of 2,000 or 15000, its not a big amount for khan but
if this loss happened to a poor it will not absorb the risk
Types of Acceptable risk:
o Social acceptance
o Cultural acceptance
o Economical acceptance
o Attitudinal ( on the basis of activities and passiveness)
o Psychological acceptance ( depends on individual)
o Technically, culturally
Residual Risk:
o That types of risk which cant be reduced or which has no potential solution
o Perception of risk varies from person to person
o It depends on perception Of person
On the basis of level three types of risk
High risk
o Which has the greater impact and negative impacts on community, risk to
infrastructure
Medium risk
o When some components of a community are at risk, e.g. Mud houses
Low risk
o Most components of community are safe but some components are at risk e.g.
flood 2010 people it depends on intensity of risk:
IDENTIFICATION OF RISK
To identify the risk in a community we need two important thing that are;
i. To identify elements at risk (are things your community values
which could be exposed to harm)
ii. To identify the source of risk ( risks are the hazards that my cause
harm)
7 | P age A d n a n A n w a r
Elements at Risk;
Objects, persons, thing which are exposed in a community for a particular hazard e.g.
crops, buildings, roads, bridges etc
People
Culture and heritage
Buildings
Infrastructure
Equipment
Environment
Livelihoods
Crops and farmland
services
Source of Risk:
Are the hazards that may cause harm. There are five source of risk
1. Natural Source:
Natural hazards, due to which risk is created e.g. flood, earthquake,
cyclone, typhoon
2. Biological Hazard:
Risk is created due to it. e.g. contaminated water is a risk (for diseases)
pandemic and epidemics or water born diseases
Food poisoning, infectious disease
3. Societal Hazard:
Conflicts in a society
terrorism
Over population
4. Mechanical Hazards:
When technology fails, e.g. building collapse, vehicle accidents and
structural fire
5. Technological Hazard :
Leakages of chemical spills
Release of toxic gases
Explosion
Hazard x vulnerability Risk (Triggers events) Disaster
Information about Risk:
To collect info/data about risk
Sources:
1. Recent History:
a. Research about earthquake (first known about the history of EQ took it by
ERRA, for flood
b. Relevant department will give you data about any hazard
2. Libraries
a. Book/Research reports
3. Newspaper
4. Journals
8 | P age A d n a n A n w a r
Intensity of Risk:
Based/depends on duration of hazard
o Velocity of the hazard frequency of the hazard
o Location of the community
o Preparedness of the community
o Risk will be more where there is high intensity of risk
o Those community which have more preparedness risk will be low
Frequency;
Frequency and interval directly promotional to risk
Magnitude:
If this is more if volume of flood is more dam burst in case of flood volume of water
is more are more destructive. Element at risk is different from one place to other


Risk Assessment
Risk assessment defines the types and magnitude of hazards/disastet that may occur. There
are three essential components to assessment of risk:
i. Hazard Occurance probability: Probability of occurance of a specified environmental
hazard at a specified severity level in a specified future time period
ii. Elements at Risk: an inventory of those people or things which are exposed to the hazard
iii. Vulnerability: the degree of loss to each element, should a hazard of a given severity
occur.
Risk assessment Is the process of data collecting, interpreting and analyzing the information
from various resources. In DRM (Disaster Risk Management) the basic thing is risk
assessment, we manage when we assess the data or we analyze and then presentation of data
(maps, graphs)
For disaster risk management, risk assessment is important.
Levels of the Risk:
Frequency of the risk
Nature of the risk
Intensity of the risk
Magnitude of the risk
Why we do Risk Assessment;
To determine the potential hazard of a particular area. Hazards can be identified
through, maps, field survey, satellite images, field observation , FGD (focus group
discussion), questionnaires, interviews, question transit walk etc
To evaluate consequences and negative impacts
Vulnerability basic thing in DM. different from other event or hazard e.g. for flood
muddy house are vulnerable to flood as compared to concrete house social, attitudinal
, directly promotional to risk
Capacity; different from other events/hazard individual, household, community and
national capacity, inversely proportional resources
9 | P age A d n a n A n w a r
Risk identification on community level: or in a particular area
1. Historical records:
Of the community (which is most prominent risk.
2. Comparison
Of one community to other A (Peshawar) and B(charsadda) community e.g.
comparison is done but on the basis that both community will have the same
characteristics
3. Conducting survey:
Go to the field conduct survey, observe things personally, observe and
interview of people structural and non structural interviews and conduct
questionnaires
4. Site Assessment:
GIS modern technology
Use topographic sheet to assess site personally due to personal observation site
with the help of maps and technology
Ways of Managing Risk
There are some ways through we can manage risk some of those ways are:
1. Reducing Probability;
To reduce chances, occurrence of risk, how much we reduce risk?
i. Change the location (physical location or relocation)
ii. Reducing the velocity of any event; velocity of water in case of flood)

2. Reduce potential consequences:
To follow building codes incase of Earthquake (impact can reduce)
Afforestaion incase of flood
Desiltation of channelization
Channelization incase of flood (diversion of channels)
Reservoirs, (dam construction, embankments)
3. Removing the source of Risk:
To eliminate the source of risk;
Reduce deforestation through Afforestaion
Global warming by emission of CFCs
4. Removing element at risk:
In case of flood
Land use planning, (sugarcane, rice, plantation of these plants)
5. Developing preparedness plan (pre-disaster)
Awareness, training, skill, seminars, if communities have all these abilities then risk
will reduce
6. Preparing recovery plans
Short term recovery (within 5 year recovery)
Long term recovery (with 20 year recovery)
E.g. in Balakot city shelter provided by Saudi Arabia

10 | P age A d n a n A n w a r
Step # 2 HAZARD ASSESSMENT
"The process of studying the nature of hazards determining its essential features (degree of
severity, duration, extent of the impact area) and their relationship"
"Identify, list down and describe the nature of hazards in terms of its recurrence, seasonality,
location, possibility of early warning and general knowledge of the people about the hazard."
Factors to be considered during hazards assessment
1. Root cause of every disaster
2. Where its location and occurrence
3. How often (frequency)
4. How strong (Intensity of event)
5. How long (duration)
6. How fast (Velocity)
7. Warning sign (forewarning/ early warning)
8. Time gap ( interval, lead time or golden time)
Information required for hazard assessment
1. Historical data/reports
2. Scientific studies
a. Maps
b. Satellite images
3. Location, duration, factors
Factors to consider in understanding the nature & behavior of hazards
1. Origin:
o It creates the hazard. It may be natural or man-made e.g. origin of the flood
(its heavy?)
o Rainfall
o Dam failure
o Deforestation
2. Signs and Signals:
o To identify any hazard you should known signals, and then you can
understand behavior of hazard. There are important to study the nature and
behaviors of hazards
o Two types of Sign and Signals:
Scientific:
It includes use of modern technology such as mapping, remote
sensing and GIS etc
Indigenous:
it includes movement of birds, behavior of animals etc
EQ change in the behaviors of animals
Behavior of the hazard
Change in shape
Rainfall duration
Quantity of rain, through rain gauge in comes in both
Rain gauge it comes in scientific
Rain intensity, quantity, temperature, winds, early warning
11 | P age A d n a n A n w a r
3. Forewarning:
o Time gap between warning signs & the impact of hazard relatively short but
can vary from a few hours to a few days
4. Force
o Factors that make the power of hazards, e.g. intensity and magnitude of
flooding
5. Speed of Onset
o Rapidity of arrival and impact
6. Frequency
o Time related patterns of occurrence of hazards
7. Seasonality
o Occurrence of a hazard in a particular time of the year
8. Duration
o Hazard's presence in a time scale

TOOLS FOR HAZARD ASSESSMENT
There many tools through which we can assess the hazard. Some of these are following
1. Hazard Mapping:
Can be developing in a community through the use of local knowledge and local
people by using sticks and finger on the ground (local material beans, stones, mud)
through the hazard/potential hazard in the given area
2. Historical Profile:
Can be used to analyze the changes with the passage of time, and to identify which
hazards have happened in the past or the start of particular hazard occurance as a
secondary effect
3. Seasonal Calendars:
Seasonality is an expected threat where information needed to be obtaining in order to
know the people coping strategies, for this purpose the most useful tool is seasonal
calendar, which is a particular tool to explore seasonal changes and its impacts on the
community life and activities.
Particular place, hazards in a particular month
4. Hazard Matrix:
In which we take one or more than one hazard. A tool through which we can assess,
analyses, causes, impacts, frequency, probability etc of any local people or local
knowledge





12 | P age A d n a n A n w a r
Step # 3 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
Vulnerability:
Those physical, attitudinal, conditions, which impact communitys ability to cope with
disaster:
Definition: its a condition or set of conditions that reduce people ability to prepare for
mitigate, and respond to the impact of a hazard opposite to capacity. Its important to
remember that a large part of vulnerability can be reduced through human capability for
prevent or self protection.
Vulnerability is more coping strategies will be more. Its relate to vulnerability assessment
Hazard prone: to be threatened
Hazard vulnerable: to be threatened and weak

Categories of Vulnerability/Types

I. Physical / Material Vulnerability
Hazard -prone location of
community houses, farmlands,
infrastructure, basic services.
Weak Design and construction
materials of houses and buildings.
Insecure and risky sources of
livelihood.
Lack of access and control over
means of production (land, farm
inputs, animals, capital).
Dependence on money -lenders.
Occurrence of acute or chronic
food shortage.
Over exploitation of natural
resources.
Lack of basic services:
Education,
Health,
Safe drinking water,
Shelter
Sanitation,
Roads,
electricity,
Communication
Exposed to violence (domestic,
community conflicts civil conflicts
or war)


II. Social / Organizational! Vulnerability
1. Weak family I kinship relations.
2. Lack of leadership and initiative to solve problems or conflicts
3. Exclusion of certain groups from decision -making about Community life or unequal
participation in community affairs
4. Absence or weak community organizations
5. Conflicts: ethnic. class, beliefs, caste, ideology
6. No or neglected relationship with government, administrative structures
7. Isolated from outside world
8. Lack of adequate skills and educational background.
9. High mortality rates, malnutrition, occurrence of diseases.

13 | P age A d n a n A n w a r
III. Motivational / Attitudinal Vulnerability
Negative attitude or resistance towards change.
Lack of confidence.
Passivity, fatalism, hopelessness.
Lack of initiative or "fighting spirit".
Dependence on external support.
Hope lessens
IV. Economical Vulnerability
Economic Vulnerabilities pertain to how people make their living and from where
they get their livelihood.
Determining which type of livelihood is easily affected by disasters (e.g. fishing,
tricycle driving, etc.) is a key issue to be considered in determining the magnitude of
economic vulnerability.

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
A process to identify what elements are at risk per hazard type, and to analyze the root
causes of why these elements are at risk
The process of estimating the vulnerability to potential hazards of specified elements at risk.
For engineering purposes, vulnerability assessment involves the analysis of theoretical and
empirical data concerning the effect; of particular phenomena on particular types of
structures.
For more general socio-economic purposes, it involves consideration of all significant
easements in society, including physical, social and economic considerations (both short and
long term), and the extent to which essential services and traditional and local coping
mechanisms are able to continue functioning.

Characteristics of Vulnerability Assessment
Vulnerability assessment is a crucial aspect of disaster planning and management.
We should recognize that vulnerability assessment is complex phenomena.
Vulnerability is specific to location, sector, interest group, etc.
Vulnerability and poverty are strongly linked.
Vulnerability assessment involves first identifying all the elements which may be, at
risk from a particular hazard.
Vulnerability implies both susceptibility to physical and economic damage and lack
of resources for rapid recovery.
Local knowledge and census data may be used to complete the inventory.
To reduce physical vulnerability weak elements may be protected or strengthened.
Similarly to reduce the vulnerability of social institutions and economic activities,
infrastructure may need to be modified or strengthened OR institutional arrangements
to be modified or strengthened.


14 | P age A d n a n A n w a r
Step # 4 CAPACITY ASSESSMENT
Definition: Capacities are the strengths and resources which are present in an individual in
households and the community which enable them to prevent, mitigate, prepare for, cope
with or quickly recover from a disaster
Even the weakest in the community have some skills, resources and strengths to help
themselves and perhaps others
In capacity assessment:
Process we identify what are the
people coping strategies, which types of
resources are available and who as access
and control over their resources
Characteristics of Capacity:
i. It is specific to hazard
ii. Capacities differ among
countries and organizations
iii. Capacity change over time
iv. Capacity sustain through
ownership and local
initiatives
Classification of Capacity:
Can be classified as following
i. Physical capacity
ii. Social capacity
iii. Attitudinal capacity
iv. Economic capacity
Triggers for Capacity Development:
1. High impact event (when events
occurs it develops capacity)
2. Frequent events (it can build
individual capacity)
3. Motivated individuals and institution
Level of Capacity:
1. Individual capacity
2. Community capacity
3. National level or government
capacity
4. International capacity


FLOOD ASSESSMENT
Rainfall (if its more flood increase)
Vegetation covered (some of them are directly related to flood)
Slope
Topography (relief natural features/ land forms low/ grazing areas will have more
flood)
Hilly area is inversely proportional to flood and plane area is directly proportional to
flood.
Nature of soil
Climatic conditions (humidity, winds direction)
Drainage system
Geology (permeable, impermeable soil ) compactness
Water table
Encroachment (cutting and filling of rocks slops decrease channel capacity.


15 | P age A d n a n A n w a r
Global Tend in Disaster
Globally there are two types of disaster
i. Small case disaster
ii. Large case disaster
When a disaster effect an area of 10 latitude and 10 longitude it sad to be
large scale disaster. Whereas it covers less than that scale it is small scale
disaster.

The line which are drawn from North Pole to South Pole is called latitude
The line which are drawn from East pole to West Pole is called Longitude
From equator to East pole is 90 +ve
23 toward the north is tropic of cancer
From equator to west pole is 90 -ve
23 toward the south is tropic of Capricorn
The number of disaster is increasing and high death toll is still a characteristic of low develop
and low income countries
Some countries are more prone to disasters than other countries
WHY?
Poverty
Location
Resources
Weather/ Climate
An average the number of people affected by natural disaster has increased due to the
increase in number of disasters
Hydro metrological disaster counted for about 90% of all those reported disaster i.e. flood,
tsunami, cyclones, storms
Geo hazard have become worse during recent years and they are common in south and south
East Asian countries. When we compare to south East Asia hazards due to the plate
boundaries, mountains area/ ranges, landslide, presence of fault lines
Continent wise Asia is more disaster effected from 1900 2010
2
nd
number north and South America
Africa
Europe
Australia
No of people killed from natural disaster is
i. Asia
ii. Europe
iii. Africa
iv. America (North and South)
v. Australia
16 | P age A d n a n A n w a r
Cause of Global Trend Disaster:
It is estimated that half population of the world never used a telephone
population of the world as no access of electric city
The average of a family house world wise is only about 1 thousand
360 wealthiest man and women control half of the world monitory resources
In the decade of 1993 to 2002 there was a global annual average of 540 recorded
disasters due to natural and technological hazards killing 62 thousand people and
effecting 250 million each year.
The greatest number of immediate deaths in disaster was attributed to drought/ famine
followed by flood, wind storm and earthquake
According to UNDP research/ study 11 % of those people expose to natural hazard
lived in countries with low human development. They account for 53% of disaster
death.
In 2004 the world bank estimated annual cost of the world natural disaster as 55
billion dollars cost