Guide to Statistics and Winning Football

Bets
We have spoken about how using goal and corners averages combined with football
ratings systems can provide a powerful tool for forecasting football matches. Using some
concepts that some of us may remember from school (if you can cast your mind back that
far) we can start to predict the outcome of some aspects of a football match. This is a
great addition to any football betting strategy. Lets look at how probability theory and
statistics can help with correct score betting.
Why correct score football betting?
orrect scores as you might think are difficult to predict. !f best a long shot... "s such
punters don#t bet large amounts of money on correct scores. $ecuase this isn#t a focus for
the bookies their fi%ed odds may offer value more often than you might think. The
science and some e%tent the art is to spot these occasions.
!magine odds of &'()& on a top flight premier league team being beaten * + ' at home.
Using thise methods you would have seen value in those odds and gone in for the kill.
How has Simon-Denis Poisson helped with correct score betting?
Well, -oisson (&./& + &/0') thought up a clever way of calculating the liklihood (or
probability) of a number of events happening in a fi%ed time frame. -oisson distribution
can be really useful for predicting correct scores in football games. 1omething a &(th
entuary 2rench 3athematician could never have conceived in his wildest dreams.
Why is -oisson#s 3odel helpful for predicting correct score results? ertain conditions
are met to make it a good model to forecast correct score.
!t calculates the probability of a number of random events occuring in a specific
time set
There should be e4ual chance of the events occuring in each period
Thse events should be rate, i.e., not loads of them. 1o not so good for $asketball
or "merican 2ootball.
o 1ound familiar? 5ou#ve guessed it....goals in a football match.
The elements that conincide in a football game to produce a goal are random. "lso, goals
don#t happen ubi4uitously in a match.
So what information do need to use Poisson distribution?
5ou can calculate the probability of an number of goals being scored during a match as
long as you know the team#s avereage (or mean) goal number. The are various websites
suppying football data that can help with this.
How does this wor! in practice?
We there is no need to route out your old maths books. !t#s a only a matter of entering the
number into the -oisson e4uation and seeing what spits out. Luckily you can use the
-oisson statistical function in an e%cell spreadsheet to do this. 6ust look at the help
section to see where to enter the figures and what the end results means.
2or the mathematical geeks amoung us you may have noticed a floor in this system.
There isn#t an e4ual chance of goals be scored by either team, becuase some teams are
better than others. 5ou wouldn#t e%pect that $ra7il has got and e4ual chance of scoring
goals when playing Uruguay in the World up, now would you?
To get the most accurate results you must evaluate the relati"e strength of each team.
We suggest using goal averages for the teams when the have played each other before
(better than using goal averages from all games playing teams of varying competancy). !t
is best to select both home and away figures. !t you don#t have sufficient data use goal
averages when the teams has played opponents of comparable competative strength. This
is easy if you use the services such as those provided by footballbettingdata. "lso, it is
easy to obtain goal supremacy figures from sports spreadbetting companies. 1o you could
could use this to take into account the relative strength of each team.
The -oisson distribution can give us the percentage probability of each side failing to
score. Whats the chance of getting a '+' result? 8ur calculations tell us that there is a *'
and 9' percent chance of each team failing to score. To work out the combined liklihood
we multiply the decimal e4uivalnet of the percentages together: .*' % .9' (;'.'<). The
result has a <= chance of happening.
Typical probabilities may come in at &&.>= for a & +& draw, or a ../= chance of a & + '
away win. These percentages ?ust show how unlikely you are to pick the e%act score,
which is reflected in the odd of course.
1o, how do we use the percentage probability to find the best correct score odds?
2irst convert the percentage probability to decimal odds. 5ou do this by dividing & by the
decimal version of the percentage. "n &&.>= chance of a & + & draw gives odds of /.. (& )
'.&&>). 8dds of /.. or more would be attractive. $ut, to take into account any error in our
calculation and to build in a profit margin you may want to add &'=. !f you add more
you are less likli to find any value bets. !n this e%ample, you wouldn#t e%cept any bets
unless they have decimal odds of (.< or above.
!f you have not nodded off, you#ll probably have figured out that you are going to have
more loseing bets than winning ones with this football betting strategy. @owever, due to
those large odds the winning bets will outweigh the loseing bets. "lso this can be a very
volatile market so you could have a bit of a rollacoster ride.
Aon#t forget the bookmakers have all the same information you do and more. @owever,
their odds don#t always reflect the true probabilities for various reasons. 2or e%ample,
offering longer odds to attract more punters to a bet or shortening odds to discourage
punters.
Become #our own correct score boo!ie
With the aid of a betting e%change like $etfair you can become your own correct score
bookmaker. $etfair allows you to lay correct scores. Using the same method. Bstimate
the true probability of a correct score. !nstead of adding &'= deduct &'= from the
decimal odds.
Cow all you need to do is lay the result at your reduced odds and hope another member
matches your bet. There we have it you are now the bookmaker.