Difficulty: Medium

Learn how to Win with Statistics

Creator: m101
I dont know anyone who doesnt like to money, and a large
roortion of eole lo!e to gam"le in an attemt to gain more
money# $ersonally, im one of the tye that will not "et unless
the odds are %0& in my fa!our at a minimum, howe!er e!ery
day thousands and thousands of eole go through the local
Casino trying their luck at making a "it of e'tra cash# (ow, if
the odds of winning were against the Casino, then the Casino
would o"!iously "e losing money, and endu going "ankrut#
So to com"at this, Casino)s attemt to offer games with the
ossi"ility of winning around the *0+,0& range# -his means
that if you were to .lack/ack for e'amle, you would generally
win four out of e!ery ten games you lay# 0lthough these odds
are acceted "y half of society, i do not find them to my liking#
I find that a common ast time for me is to try to re!erse
e!ery situation i come accross, Casino games "eing no
e'cetion# So naturally card counting was a natural ste# (ow,
for those of you who dont understand why card counting is so
effecti!e, its "ecause it allows you to redict with a high
ossi"ility what cards are going to aear at what times# -he
famous e'amle of this is the mo!ie 1ainman# 2or someone
with a erfect memory like this, card counting is a sinch, and
this is why# -he game of .lack/ack has generally got either
four or si' decks to a shoe, so four decks are taken, shuffled
together, and laced in what is called a shoe# When the shoe is
emty, another is filled u and the game continues# (ow, for
our e'amle the shoe will "e a single deck of 34 cards# When
the first card is drawn in a well shuffled deck, the chances of
any Deuce coming u would "e one out of thirteen# 5owe!er, if
no Deuces had "een drawn after the first ,0 cards, then the
ro"a"ility of a any Deuce coming u would "e one out of
three# -his would mean that at this oint, if we re6uired a
Deuce to "eat the oonent, we now ha!e a one out of three
chance of getting it# So "y this rule, with a erfect memory, it
is ossi"le to remem"er e!ery single card that aears on the
ta"le, and as the shoe loses more and more cards, you are
a"le to redict with high accuracy what cards are going to
aear#
2or the a!erage erson, remem"ering four decks of 34 cards is
nearly imossi"le, let alone a single deck, so methods ha!e to
"e created to allow simle counts to "e erformed# 2irstly
though, let me e'lain to you why .lack/ack is the game of
choice for gam"lers with real skill# 0 totally unmodified game
against a dealer with no memory of rior cards and using no
techni6ues has around a *%& chance of winning# 0fter
alying a simle strategy, the chances of success are more
around the ,*& mark# 0fter alying a simle count this is
increased to around ,%& and with a comle' count, and
"etting tactics, it is increased to around the 3%& mark, well
and truly in your fa!our#
-he "asic strategy is as follows# -he dealer gi!es you to
uturned cards, and laces a single uturned and a single card
facedown for himself# -he dealer is fi'ed to his7her actions,
that means that for e'amle the dealer is forced to draw cards
to 18, and hold hold on all 19)s and higher# (ow, if the dealers
showing card was for e'amle a :ack, then the mi' of the
dealers two cards will range from 14 to 41# .ut howe!er, if the
dealers showing card was a Deuce, then he7she could only
ha!e a total from "etween four and 1*# (ow, the aim is not
too get 41, "ut to "eat the dealer, as you arent really laying
anoyone else in the game# Seaking as a rule, you should
ne!er draw a"o!e 13# (ow if the dealer showed an eight, and
you had a total of 14, then the total of the dealer will ro"a"ly
he high, and therefore you should draw# (ow of the other side,
if the dealers card was a three, and you had a total of 18, then
you should stand for sure, as the the total of the dealers cards
has little chances of "eating yours# -o ut it as a rule, ne!er
draw a card when you are high, if the dealer shows high, then
you are forced to try to draw high, and if the dealer is low,
then you dont need to draw unless you are under 11#
Insurance comes into it when you are counting, and slits can
"e taken when the dealer is low, "ut ne!er when the dealer is
high# 2ollowing these simle rules increase your success rate
to roughly ,*&#
(ow, ,*& still isnt nearly enough to satisfy me, so here is how
to erform a "asic count# 0s the cards a dealt out to howe!er
many layers are on the ta"le, )grade) the cards# .y this i
mean, cards 10 or higher recei!e )+1), cards 8 or less recei!e
);1) and cards 9 to < recei!e )0)# (ow as the cards aear
kee a total of them in your mind# So for e'amle *,3, :ack,
0ce, Deuce, nine would "e a count of );1)# -his means that the
ro"a"ility of a high card aearing is greater than that of a
low card# 0s the shoe is emtied, this alies more and more
accurately, so when their are fi!e cards left in the deck, and
the count is );3) we know the cards left are all high and we
can lay accordingly# =ou get used to this count after a while,
and it "ecomes nearly a si'th sense# -his increases your
ro"a"ility to ,%&, which is starting to get 6uite reasona"le#
(ow, although i could e'lain the idea of a comle' count
here, it is "asically /ust a !ery large ta"le of num"ers you ha!e
to remem"er, and is someone ast the scoe of your a!erage
layer, so instead i will teach you a !ery simle method to
"etting which should "e a"le to increase your ro"a"ility of
winning to around 34&# -his is dont simly "y "etting
according to the osition in the shoe# So for e'amle in the
first half of the deck you would "et low as you ha!e !ery little
chance of guessing the cards, "ut howe!er in the last 6uarter
of the shoe, you might "et higher as the ro"a"ility of your
success increases due to your account#
0lthough i dont mind a "it of .lack/ack e!ery once and a while,
its still not 6uite to my liking e!en with a comle' count and
all the rest of it# 0lthough i still like to lay against friends and
ilfer their ockets dry#
(ow as you would guess, i wouldnt "e a fan of Casino)s eriod
if im not making money# So, lets think of what games start
with a reasona"ly high ro"a"ility of winning# 0art from
Casino Wars which is only layed in large Casino)s, the only
one i can think of is roullette# (ow, you tell me that roullette is
well and truly not in my fa!our, "ut howe!er the ta"le can "e
used with a ossi"ility of winning of around ,9&# 2or those of
you that dont know how roullette works, "asically you "et on
the outcome of where a "all will land# -here are *% ossi"le
results, 1% "eing red, and 1% "eing "lack, "ut that only makes
*8, so the last two are the 0 and the 00# -he following
methods re6uire you to "et on whether the outcome of the "all
will "e either red or "lack# -hese two results ro!ide the
Casino with their statistical fa!our of winning# (ow, the
ro"lem with this is that e!eryone "elei!es they can "e one of
the few who manage to "eat the statistics# Let me /ust say, it
is !ery rare, too rare to e!en consider# So, if this is true, then
how do you win at roullette> Well you dont actually win more
times than you lose, "ut you gain more than you lose# 2or
e'amle, if i had si' games, two i won and gained ?%00, and
the other four i lost ?*00, then i ha!e gained more than i lost,
"ut i ha!e not "eaten the odds of winning#
In my e'eriences, the following metthod sits around the <%&
mark of success, and in ideal conditions can truly e!en "e
100&# 0lthough i ha!ent looked secifically, i ha!e ne!er seen
this method rinted anywhere to my knowledge# I found it one
weakend a while "ack and ha!e ne!er looked "ack# So, let me
first e'lain the first simle method# -his is called the dou"le
"et method# If you ha!e enough money, and the ta"le limit is
high enough, you cannot lose# -he "asic method is this# Start
"y lacing down a "et, for e'amle ?10, if you lose, dou"le
your "et, if you win, /ust ut down ?10 again# 5ere is a ta"le
to demonstrate this:
Start with $500
Bet $10
Win
Pot $510
Bet $10
Win
Pot $520
Bet $10
Lose
Pot $510
Bet $20
Lose
Pot $490
Bet $40
Lose
Pot $450
Bet $80
Lose
Pot $370
Bet $160
Win
Pot $530
Bet $10
Lose
Pot $520
Bet $20
Lose
Pot $500
Bet $40
Lose
Pot $460
Bet $80
Win
Pot $540
Bet $10
Win
End with $550
Games 12
Wins 5
Loses 7
Pro!it $50
0s you can see, although less games are won than are lost,
money is still made# So how is this ossi"le> Well if you take
?10, lose it, then dou"le your "et to ?40, this means that if
you win you make u your initial "et and gain ?10# (ow, if we
lose ?40, we "et ?,0, making u for the ?10 and ?40 we ha!e
already lost, and still making ?10 if we win# So, as you lose
you "et more and more# -he longest streak of "ad wins i!e
seen was around 14 games in a row, with an a!erage of
around 3# -hat means, if our initial "et was ?10, we would at a
ma'imum need to walk into a Casino with 4,000,000,000,000
and ha!e to go to a ta"le with no limit# 0s you would think,
thats /ust stuid, so we need ways to do this more
comforta"ely# In alot of the @S Casinos i!e seen, the minimum
limit of a ta"le is around ?1, with the ma'imum "et "eing
around ?10,000 without going into the high rollers room#
So, if we take our highest streak of "ad luck to "e % with a
minimum "et of ?1, that would mean we need ?438 to sustaint
he "ad streak# With a streak of 14 we would need ?,0<8# -he
main issue is eole will get worried that they will loose their
money with a massi!e streak, "ut the re6uired money isnt as
large anymore, so your a "it safer# -his strategy is called the
Dou"le "et method, and is retty much for rich no+"rainers#
-he ne't method is the Cur!e method# -his method works on
the theory that after a large ammount of games the num"er of
wins to losses will start to e!en out "ack to the Aero oint#
Statistically seaking, and ractically seaking this is normally
always the case with enough games# -his method also makes
the most money# .asically the money isnt made when you win,
"ut when you lose# -his may seem a "it strange, "ut here is
"asically what you do# Start a cur!e at 0, "et the minimum
multilied "y two, so ?4, if you win, the cur!e "ecomes 1, and
you now half your "et, so you "et ?1# 2rom this oint, if you
win, you kee your "et the same and /ust kee counting your
osition in the cur!e# (ow, when you loose your "ets go
dou"le like this:
Start Pot $500
Bet $2
"o#nt 0
Win
Pot $502
Bet $1
"o#nt 1
Win
Pot $503
Bet $1
"o#nt 2
Win
Pot $504
Bet $1
"o#nt 3
Lose
Pot $503
Bet $1
"o#nt 2
Lose
Pot $502
Bet $1
"o#nt 1
Lose
Pot $501
Bet $2
"o#nt 0
Lose
Pot $499
Bet $4
"o#nt $1
Lose
Pot $495
Bet $8
"o#nt $2
Lose
Pot $487
Bet $16
"o#nt $3
Lose
Pot $471
Bet $32
"o#nt $4
win
Pot $503
Bet $16
"o#nt $3
Win
Pot $511
Bet $8
"o#nt $2
Win
Pot $515
Bet $4
"o#nt $1
Win
End Pot $519
Games 14
Wins 7
Loses 7
Pro!it $19
0s you can see, the rofit is made when the cur!e is returning
"ack to Aero in your fa!our# .eing as sketical of my method
as i am, i decided to run this through a few random comuter
simulations, and found that the worst count i e!er reached was
+10 after around 100,000 games# $ersonally im 6uite hay
with that result as i "elei!e i should "e# -hat would mean i
would ha!e needed would "e ?104,, "ut i would ha!e taken
?,0<8 /ust to "e sure although i ro"a"ly wouldnt need it#
-hat is the Cur!e strategy, i hoe its clear enough to you, if
not, /ust follow it through for a while and youll get the idea#
-he ne't method i roduced "eing my usual aranoid self is
called the Conser!ati!e method# -his is ro"a"ly the safest
aroach of all, "ut ofcourse with minimum results# -his
method is similar to the Dou"le "et method, e'cet howe!er
you only start dou"ling your "et after the second loss# -his
allows you to e'tend your losing streaks far in e'cess of what
you normally could, "ut money is made less# 5ere is an
e'amle:
Start %ot $500
Bet $10
Win
Pot $510
Bet $10
Lose
Pot $500
Bet $10
Lose
Pot $500
Bet $20
Lose
Pot $480
Bet $40
Lose
Pot $440
Bet $80
Lose
Pot $360
Bet $160
Win
Pot $520
Bet $10
Win
End Pot $530
Games 8
Wins 3
Loses 5
Pro!it $30
0s you can see, the money is made when you win more than
once in a row# -he use of the conser!ati!e "ets allows you to
kee streaks running much longer on a ta"le with a low
ma'imum# $rofits from this strategy are 6uite low, "ut
definately worth the security# 0lthough this method is 6uite
good, i refer the following method as it ma'imises rofit and
security# I name it the Conser!ati!e Cur!e# What haens here
is that you mi' "oth the Conser!ati!e and Cur!e method as
the name suggests, with a single addition# What haens is
that like the Conser!ati!e method, you only start dou"ling
your "ets after the second loss, and like the Cur!e method you
count your losses and ad/ust your "etting accordingly, e'cet
that instead of halfing your "et after a win, you 6uarter it# -his
means that you still ha!e the a"ility to run long streaks, with
the added ad!antage that you make rofit on the come"acks
of your losses# I dont think its necessary to demonstrate this,
e'cet to show a few small e'amles# If you "et ?100, and
you won, you would 6uarter the "et to ?43# If you lost, you
would still dou"le it to ?400# If your minimum "et is ?10, and
you won at ?10, you still "et ?10, howe!er after two losses at
the minimum "et you then start dou"ling it and following the
cur!e till you reach your minimum "et again#
I hoe that wasnt too confusing for you# I ha!e ersonally
tested these methods without a single large loss, "ut howe!er,
you may "e an e'cetion, so dont come crying to me if you
lose all your cash# 1un through the methods to see what is
most suita"le for you, and "ecome roficient and hay with
how to use it# .y the way, these are my methods, i didnt find
them on the net or in "ooks, so dont steal credit for them#
-hey may e'ist elsewhere "ut i dont know of them, and i!e
ne!er seen any decent strategies to roullette "efore, "ut if you
find any, lease feel free to find my email and email me them#