TRACING THE GUNS:

THE IMPACT OF ILLEGAL GUNS

ON VIOLENCE IN CHICAGO
CITY OF CHICAGO - OFFICE OF THE MAYOR
CHICAGO POLICE DEPARTMENT
MAY 27, 2014

violence is Chicago's most uigent ciisis. Since assuming office in 2u11, Nayoi Emanuel's top
piioiity has been ieuucing ciime so that all Chicagoans, in eveiy neighboihoou, feel safe in oui City.
The Nayoi's compiehensive violence ieuuction stiategy has attackeu the pioblem fiom eveiy
angle, incluuing incieasing police iesouices, fosteiing economic oppoitunity, impioving euucation
outcomes, empoweiing youth thiough pievention piogiams, anu cieating oppoitunities foi
inuiviuuals ietuining fiom incaiceiation.
1

The City's appioach is showing signs of piogiess. Chicago closeu 2u1S with histoiic lows in ciime
anu violence. Last yeai, Chicago hau the fewest muiueis since 196S, the lowest muiuei iate since
1966, anu the lowest oveiall ciime iate since 1972.
But violence in Chicago iemains unacceptably high. Too many families, fiom geneiation to
geneiation, have liveu with the heaitbieak anu uevastation of gun violence. Anu while the City
continues to invest in smaitei police stiategies anu high quality pievention piogiams, it also must
tackle the pioblem at one of its ioot causes: the flow of illegal guns into the City.
This iepoit is composeu of uata anu analysis compileu by the Chicago Nayoi's 0ffice anu the
Chicago Police Bepaitment examining the impact of illegal guns on violent ciime in Chicago anu the
scope of the City's illegal gun maiket.
2
This iepoit upuates an analysis pieviously ieleaseu in 2u12
S

anu confiims:
(1) Chicago's violence pioblem is uiiectly linkeu to the numbei of illegal guns available
in the City;
(2) Sixty peicent of guns iecoveieu in ciimes in Chicago weie fiist solu in othei states,
many with weakei gun laws; anu
(S) A small hanuful of gun stoies continue to be iesponsible foi a uispiopoitionate
numbei of ciime guns iecoveieu on Chicago's stieets.
Recognizing that theie must be a multifaceteu appioach to ieuucing gun violence, the Nayoi's
0ffice anu the Chicago Police Bepaitment will take eveiy step to holu accountable the stiaw
puichaseis, ietail stoies, anu iiiesponsible gun owneis who aim ciiminals anu young people.
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As has been wiuely iepoiteu, Chicago has in iecent yeais expeiienceu a highei numbei of muiueis
than the two laigest cities in the 0niteu States - New Yoik City anu Los Angeles. Chicago is not
substantially uiffeient fiom those two cities in key inuicatois thought to have an impact on violent
ciime, such as poveity iate anu the amount of police iesouices. Inueeu, all thiee cities iepoit that
between 19 anu 22 peicent of iesiuents aie living below the poveity line,
4
anu Chicago has moie
police officeis pei capita than both New Yoik anu Los Angeles.
S
Theie is at least one ciitical factoi,
howevei, that sets Chicago apait - the numbei of illegal guns on the stieet.
In 2u12 the Chicago Police Bepaitment confiscateu 7,624 guns, which is moie gun iecoveiies !"#
%&!'(& than LA anu NYC combineu.
6
In fact, foi eveiy one gun the LAPB iecoveieu, Chicago police
officeis iecoveieu 2.2S guns. Neasuieu by the numbei of guns iecoveieu in ciimes pei capita, aftei

contiolling foi population, Chicago police officeis iecovei seven times moie guns than in New Yoik
City anu moie than uouble the amount of guns iecoveieu in Los Angeles.
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These uata aie significant because, when guns aie involveu, inteipeisonal violence is much moie
lethal. Neuical ieseaich has founu that the moitality iate of stabbings is almost tenfolu lowei than
fiieaim injuiies.
7
Thus, the gieatei availability of guns in the 0niteu States explains in pait why this
countiy's ciiminal homiciue iate is significantly highei than in uevelopeu countiies in Noithein anu
Westein Euiope, even though oveiall violent ciime iates aie the same.
Foi example, accoiuing to the 0iganisation foi Coopeiation anu Bevelopment ("0ECB") which is a
bouy composeu of S4 of the laigest inuustiializeu nations, the 0niteu States hau one of the lowest
iates of "assault" in the woilu. Noie specifically," in the 0niteu States, 1.S% of people iepoiteu
falling victim to assault ovei the pievious 12 months," which is much less than the 0ECB meuian
assault iate of S.7S% making the iate in the 0niteu States one "of the lowest iates acioss the
0ECB."
8
Yet, foi that same peiiou the 0niteu States hau the S
iu
highest muiuei iate acioss 0ECB

membei nations: "the 0niteu States' homiciue iate is S.2 |pei 1uu,uuuj," which is much highei than
the 0ECB meuian iate of 1.uS.
9

Why the uispaiity between "assaults" anu "muiueis". uiven that neaily all of 0.S. homiciues aie
committeu with guns, one answei is that guns make violence moie lethal.
1u

As shown by the chaits below, the connection between muiuei iate anu the size of gun maiket is
appaient when compaiing Chicago to New Yoik City anu Los Angeles. The thiee cities have
ielatively similai iates of non-gun homiciues. The uiffeience, howevei, is Chicago's laige gun
maiket which fuels the muiuei iate.
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Anothei woithwhile compaiison is Toionto. In 2u11, Toionto iepoiteu just Su homiciues, 27 of
which weie gun-ielateu.
12
Like Chicago, Toionto has appioximately 2.6 million people, but it is
much moie uifficult to access guns in Canaua - legally oi illegally than in the 0niteu States. In
fact, accoiuing to a iecent iepoit by the Toionto Stai, at least "7u peicent of all guns useu in
Toionto ciimes aie smuggleu fiom the 0.S., mostly fiom states with lax gun puichase laws that
make it easy to buy a pistol in a pawnshop, at a gun show oi in a paiking lot."
1S


While the scope of Chicago's illegal gun pioblem is significant, the connection between access to
guns anu the muiuei iate offeis an oppoitunity. If the supply anu access to illegal guns is ieuuceu,
Chicago's muiuei iate will likely uiop.
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Tiacking the souice of illegal guns is essential to cutting off the supply to ciiminals. Ciime gun
tiace uata collecteu by police uepaitments anu the Buieau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Fiieaims &
Explosives (ATF) is key to unueistanuing how guns enu up in the hanus of ciiminals.
14

Accoiuing to the ATF, almost all of the guns iecoveieu at ciime scenes weie oiiginally solu at ietail
stoies by feueially licenseu fiieaims uealeis (FFLs).
1S
Thus, unlike naicotics, guns begin as legal
piouucts in a legal maiketplace. Along the way, howevei, many guns aie uiveiteu into the hanus of
ciiminals thiough theft; "stiaw puichasing," wheie a legal gun buyei is paiu to puichase a gun foi a
gun tiaffickei oi ciiminal; anu piivate sales at gun shows anu online, wheie selleis aie not iequiieu
by feueial law to conuuct backgiounu checks oi keep papeiwoik on the gun tiansfei.
16

0nce a gun is iecoveieu by police officeis, they iepoit the gun's unique seiial numbei to ATF, which
tiaces the gun to its manufactuiei, uistiibutei, uealei, anu ultimately - assuming the uealei has
maintaineu accuiate papeiwoik - oiiginal puichasei.
17
Foi specific cases, tiace uata allows law
enfoicement to investigate how the gun went fiom the hanus of its oiiginal ownei to the ciime
scene. In the aggiegate, tiace uata can paint a national pictuie of which states, counties, anu
inuiviuual ietail stoies aie the laigest souices of guns iecoveieu in ciimes.
Accoiuing to the ATF, if a gun was iecoveieu in a ciime within thiee yeais of its oiiginal puichase,
that is a stiong inuicatoi that the gun was illegally tiaffickeu anu "suggests illegal uiveision oi
ciiminal intent associateu with the ietail puichase fiom the FFL."
18
This is tiue foi a numbei of
ieasons. Fiist, guns aie expensive - a new ulock 9mm pistol, without ammunition oi accessoiies,
typically costs aiounu $Suu. These aie not items tiaueu away on a whim. Seconu, buying a
hanugun fiom a ietail uealei in most states takes patience. Foi example, in Illinois, a puichasei
must complete the papeiwoik to obtain a F0IB caiu, tiavel to the gun stoie, choose a weapon, wait
foi the backgiounu check to be completeu, abiue by the S-uay waiting peiiou, anu then make a
ietuin tiip to the stoie to pick up the gun.
uiven the time anu money necessaiy to buy a hanugun, the aveiage peison is unlikely to quickly
uiscaiu it; unless of couise, the puichasei nevei intenueu to keep the gun because they bought it foi
someone else - a felony unuei feueial law.
violence in Chicago is fueleu by people using illegal guns. The obvious question is: Wheie aie all
these guns coming fiom.
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Between 2uu9 anu 2u1S, almost 6u peicent of guns useu to commit ciimes in Chicago weie fiist
puichaseu outsiue of Illinois. That is a slight uptick fiom analysis publisheu in 2u12, when S8

peicent weie fiist puichaseu out of state. All Su states supplieu at least one gun that was
eventually useu to commit a ciime in Chicago. Illinois, like neaily eveiy othei state, is the single
laigest souice of guns iecoveieu in Chicago anu supplies 4u peicent of the total guns iecoveieu in
the City. Nationally, on aveiage, each state supplies about 7u peicent of guns iecoveieu in ciimes in
that state anu othei states supply the iemaining Su peicent.
19

The laigest out-of-state souices of Chicago's illegal guns weie Inuiana, Nississippi, anu Wisconsin,
which supplieu 19 peicent, 6.7 peicent, anu S.6 peicent of these ciime guns, iespectively. None of
these states have laws that iequiie backgiounu checks foi puichaseis who buy fiieaims at gun
shows oi on the Inteinet.
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States vaiy in the uegiee to which they iegulate gun sales. Some iequiie backgiounu checks only
foi some types of gun puichases. 0theis iequiie gun owneis to iepoit any lost oi stolen fiieaims.
Some states uo not even iequiie gun uealeis to obtain licenses. It shoulu come as no suipiise that
the states with the most peimissive gun laws aie the states that expoit ciime guns at the highest
iates.

Inuiana, Nississippi, West viiginia, Kentucky, Alabama anu viiginia expoit S1, Su, 46, S4, SS, anu
S2 hanuguns pei 1uu,uuu iesiuents.
2u
By contiast, Califoinia anu New Yoik, which have much
toughei gun laws, expoit appioximately S anu 2 hanuguns pei 1uu,uuu iesiuents.
21

Thus, to a ceitain extent, Chicago is challengeu by geogiaphy. Its cential location makes it an easy
taiget foi gun tiaffickeis. In the last five yeais 22 uiffeient guns iecoveieu fiom ciime scenes in
Chicago weie tiaceu back to a single puichasei in Inuiana. Buiing this same peiiou, 11 guns
iecoveieu at ciime scenes in Chicago weie tiaceu back to a single puichasei in ueoigia. Put
anothei way, two out-of-state iesiuents weie iesponsible foi supplying SS sepaiate guns that weie
useu in ciimes in Chicago.
0f couise, not all of the guns iecoveieu in Chicago come fiom states with weakei gun laws. Inueeu,
many guns iecoveieu in ciimes weie fiist solu by uealeis in suiiounuing communities.
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Although the majoiity of Chicago's ciime guns come fiom the othei 49 states combineu, between
2uu9 anu 2u1S, just foui local uealeis supplieu neaily 2u peicent of the guns iecoveieu at Chicago
ciime scenes. These stoies - Chucks (Riveiuale, IL), Niuwest Spoiting uoous (Lyons, IL), Shoie
ualleiies (Lincolnwoou, IL), anu Westfoith Spoits, Inc. (uaiy, IN) aie all within a shoit uiive of
Chicago anu aie the souice of thousanus of guns iecoveieu in ciimes in Chicago. By contiast,
uuiing that same time peiiou, the aveiage numbei of guns tiaceu back to all othei gun stoies was
thiee.
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Noie
significantly, a laige piopoition of the guns solu by seveial of these stoies weie iecoveieu in ciimes
fewei than thiee yeais aftei theii oiiginal sale - a key inuicatoi that the sale coulu have involveu

ciiminal activity by the buyei oi the uealei, as uiscusseu above. 0n aveiage, ioughly 12 peicent of
any uealei's guns that aie latei iecoveieu in ciimes in Chicago move fiom the stoie to the stieet
within S yeais. Between 2uu9 anu 2u1S, Niuwest uun in Lyons, Illinois, solu 6S9 guns that weie
useu in ciimes in Chicago, anu SSS (appioximately S1 peicent) of those fiieaims weie iecoveieu
within thiee yeais of the oiiginal puichase at Niuwest uun. Chucks uun Shop in Riveiuale, Illinois,
solu 1,S16 guns that weie useu in ciimes in Chicago, anu S29 (appioximately SS peicent) of these
guns weie iecoveieu within thiee yeais of puichase. Chucks alone accounts foi a whopping 8
peicent of the total numbei of guns that weie iecoveieu anu tiaceu to ciimes in Chicago in the last
five yeais.
22

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0f couise, these aie not just statistics on a page. Each ciime gun tiace quantifieu in this iepoit
staiteu with Chicago Police Bepaitment iecoveiing a gun in ciime, often aftei a shooting oi muiuei,
anu the human cost is incalculable. Below aie just a few examples:
0n Novembei 2, 2u11, Ihab Aiefeh was minutes away fiom his finishing his shift as a ueliveiy
uiivei anu going home to his wife anu five chiluien.
2S
But Aiefeh hau to make one last ueliveiy to
"The Connect," a convenience stoie on the South Siue of Chicago.
Salem Weam was a 2S-yeai-olu employee of The Connect. That uay, he was woiking with Su-yeai-
olu Nichael Banks. Banks, the stoie's secuiity guaiu, often woikeu 12-houi shifts, commuting to
Chicago fiom his home in Inuiana, which he shaieu with his fiance anu foui chiluien.

None of these men evei maue it home. That Weunesuay evening, all thiee weie shot to ueath by
aimeu assailants insiue the convenience stoie.
The thiee inuiviuuals chaigeu with the muiueis weie all youngei than 21 yeais olu anu piohibiteu
fiom owning hanuguns oi assault weapons. Two guns iecoveieu fiom the ciime scene weie
puichaseu at Westfoith Spoits just two weeks piioi to the muiueis.
0n Apiil 7, 2u1S, 14-yeai-olu Nichael 0iozco anu a 1S-yeai-olu giil weie walking in the Beait of
Chicago neighboihoou to get ice cieam.
24
Suuuenly, a passengei in a van openeu fiie. 0iozco ian to
escape the gunfiie, but he was shot thiee times in the back anu uieu fiom his injuiies. The two
allegeu assailants weie 17 anu 18 yeais olu--again piohibiteu fiom owing hanuguns. A gun tieu to
the ciime was puichaseu at Niuwest uun Exchange just ovei thiee yeais piioi to 0iozco's muiuei.
That was not the fiist time this gun hau been useu in a ciime. A Chicago Police ballistics iepoit
tiaceu this gun back to an eailiei inciuent of an aggiavateu assault of a police officei.
0n Nay 1u, 2u12, Lamont Natticx anu William Beiion-}unius, both 2u yeais olu, weie sitting
outsiue on a poich at aiounu S p.m. in the Back of the Yaius neighboihoou of Chicago.
2S
A few
minutes latei, both men weie muiueieu in a uiive-by shooting. Chicago Police iecoveieu a gun tieu
to the ciime, which tiaceu back to a puichase at Chuck's uun Shop a little moie than two yeais piioi
to the shooting.
In all thiee cases, the iecoveieu guns tiaceu back to puichaseis othei than the chaigeu assailants)
In the case of the muiueis at The Connect, the tiaceu guns weie oiiginally puichaseu by an Inuiana
iesiuent. All of the guns weie puichaseu at ietail uealeis, yet wounu up in the hanus of people who
coulu not, anu shoulu not, have hau them.
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Nost guns aie uiveiteu fiom the legal maiket to the stieet thiough seconuaiy piivate tiansfeis,
theft, oi via stiaw puichaseis at ietail uealeis. Laws anu enfoicement stiategies uesigneu to shut
uown these tiafficking channels can be extiemely effective.
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Sixty peicent of guns iecoveieu in ciimes in Chicago weie oiiginally solu in othei states, many with
weakei gun laws. Specifically, Inuiana, Wisconsin, anu Nississippi all peimit gun owneis to sell
theii guns to othei people without any backgiounu checks of the new buyei oi papeiwoik
iecoiuing the sale. This makes it incieuibly easy foi gun tiaffickeis, violent offenueis, anu othei
piohibiteu puichaseis to buy guns unuetecteu. In those states, guns can move fiom buyei to buyei
anu lanu in the hanus of a shootei oi muiueiei without any papei tiail.
Because the laws aie so weak, law enfoicement can often only holu the shootei accountable anu not
the peison(s) who aimeu the shootei. States like Illinois, Califoinia, anu New Yoik have passeu
anti-tiafficking laws that iequiie backgiounu checks foi all gun sales, but guns uo not iespect state
lines. Thus, cities like Chicago neeu a feueial solution.

Buiing the Clinton auministiation, Nayoi Rahm Emanuel woikeu to pass the Biauy Bill, which
implementeu the fiist instant backgiounu check system. Since then, he has consistently pusheu foi
stiongei feueial laws. Seveial penuing feueial bills woulu close these gaps anu allow law
enfoicement to holu gun tiaffickeis accountable.
26
These feueial bills aie uesigneu to accomplish
two goals: (1) iequiie backgiounu checks foi piivate-paity gun sales to make it haiuei foi ciiminals
to access guns, anu (2) make gun tiafficking a feueial ciime.
Aftei the mass shooting in Newtown, Connecticut, the 0.S. Senate consiueieu compiehensive, bi-
paitisan legislation to iequiie backgiounu checks foi piivate gun sales, which ultimately uiu not
pass.
27
Laws iequiiing backgiounu checks foi piivate-paity sales aie effective at ieuucing gun
tiafficking. Sixteen states iequiie backgiounu checks foi all sales of hanuguns. Compaieu to the
iest of the countiy, gun tiafficking in those states is 68 peicent lowei, fatal uomestic violence with a
gun is S8 peicent lowei, anu fiieaim suiciue iates aie neaily Su peicent lowei.
28

0nuei cuiient feueial law, "gun tiafficking" is not a uistinct feueial offense. The bi-paitisan *+,
-#&..'%/',0 1#"2",('3, 4%( sponsoieu by 0.S. Senatois Kiik (R-IL) anu Kiisten uillibianu (B-NY) anu
suppoiteu by 0.S. Senatoi Bick Buibin (B-IL) seeks to change that. If passeu, the law woulu make it
illegal to tiaffic oi assist in the tiafficking of a fiieaim, by making it unlawful to uelivei oi ieceive
two oi moie fiieaims wheie the inuiviuual knows oi has ieason to believe that the fiieaims aie
being, oi will be, useu in a felony.
29
Auuitionally, the bill piohibits making false statements
iegaiuing an actual buyei to a licenseu fiieaim uealei ielating to the puichase of two oi moie
fiieaims. Thus, this law attacks the pioblem of gun tiafficking at eveiy link in the chain, incluuing
stiaw-puichaseis who buy a gun foi someone else, anu the gun uealeis who knowingly sell
fiieaims to tiaffickeis.
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Not all of Chicago's ciime guns aie tiaffickeu fiom states that fail to iegulate piivate gun sales.
Nany aie coming fiom uealeis in Illinois. To puichase a gun in Illinois, an inuiviuual must piesent a
Fiieaim 0wnei Iuentification oi "F0IB" caiu, which shows that the puichasei has a passeu a
backgiounu check. If a gun ownei wishes to iesell a gun on the piivate maiket in Illinois, staiting in
}anuaiy 2u14, they must veiify the buyei has a valiu F0IB caiu. 0nlike Califoinia anu New Yoik,
Illinois uoes not license anu iegulate gun uealeis opeiating in the state.
To begin to shiink the size of Chicago's illegal gun maiket, law enfoicement officeis anu iegulatois
must be empoweieu to ciack uown on the businesses that contiibute to the supply of tiaffickeu
guns. As iepoiteu by a foimei ATF agent in 2u12, often uealeis aie smait enough to follow the
lettei of feueial law by conuucting backgiounu checks anu checking a buyei's F0IB caiu. But when
they suspect but haven't veiifieu the buyei is a stiaw puichasei, they look the othei way.
Su

Technically the uealei is not violating feueial law unless the uealei "knows oi ieasonably shoulu
have known" the buyei is a tiaffickei. This can be a veiy uifficult stanuaiu to piove, anu veiy few
uealeis aie evei iepiimanueu, incluuing uealeis that aie the oiiginal souice of thousanus of ciime
guns. Bealeis that follow the lettei but the not the spiiit of the law can enu up uiiectly contiibuting
to hunuieus of violent ciimes but stay in business foi yeais, seemingly out of ieach. These uealeis

have a iesponsibility to take eveiy step they can to ieuuce tiafficking in theii stoies given the huge
social costs anu consequences of gun violence.
Bue to weak feueial iegulations of uealeis, cities anu states can make a big impact on gun
tiafficking by licensing these businesses anu iequiiing them to take common sense steps to ieuuce
stiaw puichasing anu theft in theii stoies. Accoiuing to ieseaicheis, "state oi local iegulation of
gun uealeis, coupleu with iegulai compliance inspections, weie associateu with significantly less
tiafficking of guns to ciiminals."
S1

Theie aie a numbei of steps uealeis can take to ieuuce the chances theii guns enu up in ciimes:
EBN.*4// I('6)2*<07 $%/'6,: Nanuate backgiounu checks foi all gun stoie employees
to make suie they can pass the same backgiounu checks as gun puichaseis befoie they
hanule guns behinu the countei anu sell those guns to customeis.
S2

?03&T3%/:3 8(:/34 P.(0,: Accoiuing to the ATF, in 2u12, appioximately 16,667 guns weie
iepoiteu lost oi stolen fiom uealeis acioss the countiy.
SS
To lessen this iisk, uealeis shoulu
be iequiieu to submit a safety plan, which must be appioveu by law enfoicement befoie the
business may open. Each safety plan must uetei theft thiough auequate exteiioi lighting,
suiveillance cameias, alaim systems oi othei measuies. The plans shoulu also auuiess safe
stoiage of weapons anu ammunition anu fiie hazaiu compliance. Cuiiently, ATF auvises
uealeis on how to minimize theft but feueial iegulations uo not manuate uealeis implement
measuies to piotect against theft.
EBN.*4// L2(&0&0): Tiain employees anu manageis to iuentify common signs of stiaw
puichasing anu avoiu selling to tiaffickeis.
!0A/,3&)(3&*0 5*): Naintain an alphabetical log of all guns sales wheie the gun was latei
iecoveieu in a ciime. If a single puichasei has multiple guns iecoveieu in ciimes in a shoit
peiiou of time, that infoimation coulu leau the uealei to ueny futuie sales.
!0A/03*24 ?<7&3,: Conuuct a manuatoiy, quaiteily auuit of the stoie's inventoiy to help
uetect theft anu tiafficking. Feueial law iestiicts ATF fiom conuucting moie than one
inspection pei yeai, anu uue to manpowei constiaints, most uealeis aie inspecteu only
eveiy few yeais.
-&7/* '(B/2(,: viueotape the point of sale to uiscouiage tiaffickeis anu buyeis who use
false iuentification.
5&'/0,/ 32(0,:/2,: If a business license is ievokeu foi failing to follow the law, making suie
the uealei cannot ieopen immeuiately in the same location oi by foimei key employees anu
manageis.
In 2uu6, New Yoik City sueu moie than twenty uealeis that weie the top souice of guns iecoveieu
in ciimes in the city. As pait of the settlement agieements, the couit assigneu a monitoi who

helpeu each stoie implement some of the safety measuies uesciibeu above. As a iesult, the supply
of ciime guns fiom those stoies uioppeu by 8S peicent.
S4

$" $2/(3/ ( @/)&*0(. L2('&0) $/03/2
The analysis in this iepoit is baseu solely on guns iecoveieu anu tiaceu by the Chicago Police
Bepaitment, but eveiy police uepaitment in the iegion also iecoveis anu tiaces guns. Police
uepaitments in noithein Illinois, Wisconsin anu Inuiana shoulu collaboiate to combine anu shaie
each uepaitment's tiace uata to cieate a moie accuiate anu uetaileu view of how illegal guns flow
thiough the iegion. With this insight, cities coulu woik togethei to uevelop enfoicement stiategies
at eveiy stage in the tiafficking chain.
!-" $*0'.<,&*0
Chicago's violence pioblem is laigely a gun pioblem. Eveiy yeai, Chicago police officeis take
thousanus of illegal guns off the stieet. But, uespite these effoits, it iemains fai too easy foi
ciiminals to get theii hanus on ueauly weapons. With an enhanceu unueistanuing of wheie these
guns aie coming fiom, the City will be using eveiy tool to ieuuce the supply of tiaffickeu guns,
incluuing puisuit of common sense legislation, innovative policing stiategies anu oveisight of gun
uealeis. Reuucing the size of Chicago's illegal gun maiket will not be easy, but it is absolutely
necessaiy if we want to give all Chicagoan the same oppoitunity to feel safe in oui City.












ENDNOTES


1
1he ClLy's comprehenslve approach Lo vlolence prevenLlon ls descrlbed ln greaLer deLall aL
hLLp://changlngchlcago.clLyofchlcago.org/docs/M8L_ubllcSafeLy.pdf.
2
1he analysls was lnformed by Lechnlcal daLa asslsLance from Lhe unlverslLy of Chlcago Crlme Lab. llgures
presenLed ln Lhls documenL were generaLed as parL of Lhls Lechnlcal asslsLance provlded Lo Lhe ClLy by Lhe Crlme
Lab. Concluslons and pollcy recommendaLlons are solely Lhose of Lhe ClLy and Lhe Chlcago ollce ueparLmenL.
3
lrank Maln, cblcoqo Cooqs uoot nove to Co lot to 8oy Coos, AugusL 26, 2012, Chlcago Sun 1lmes, avallable aL
hLLp://www.sunLlmes.com/news/crlme/14713638-418/chlcago-gangs-donL-have-Lo-go-far-Lo-buy-
guns.hLml#.u3z7C9!dW_M
4
overLy flgures are from Lhe uS Census and are avallable aL:
hLLp://qulckfacLs.census.gov/qfd/sLaLes/36/3631000.hLml,
hLLp://qulckfacLs.census.gov/qfd/sLaLes/06/0644000.hLml,
hLLp://qulckfacLs.census.gov/qfd/sLaLes/06/0644000.hLml
3
1he ollce offlce per caplLa flgures were calculaLed uslng Lhe l8l's naLlonal Crlme 1ables and are avallable aL:
hLLp://www.fbl.gov/abouL-us/c[ls/ucr/crlme-ln-Lhe-u.s/2012/crlme-ln-Lhe-u.s.-
2012/Lables/78LabledaLadecpdf/Lable-78-sLaLe-
cuLs/Lable_78_full_Llme_law_enforcemenL_employees_llllnols_by_clLy_2012.xls
hLLp://www.fbl.gov/abouL-us/c[ls/ucr/crlme-ln-Lhe-u.s/2012/crlme-ln-Lhe-u.s.-
2012/Lables/78LabledaLadecpdf/Lable-78-sLaLe-
cuLs/Lable_78_full_Llme_law_enforcemenL_employees_new_york_by_clLy_2012.xls
hLLp://www.fbl.gov/abouL-us/c[ls/ucr/crlme-ln-Lhe-u.s/2012/crlme-ln-Lhe-u.s.-
2012/Lables/78LabledaLadecpdf/Lable-78-sLaLe-
cuLs/Lable_78_full_Llme_law_enforcemenL_employees_callfornla_by_clLy_2012.xls
6
uaLa on gun recoverles ln Los Angeles was provlded by Los Angeles ollce ueparLmenL Lo Lhe unlverslLy of
Chlcago Crlme Lab.
7
Crandall, C., Clson, L., lullerLon, L., Skalar, u., and ZumwalL, 8. (1997) Cuns and knlves ln new Mexlco: aLLerns of
eneLraLlng 1rauma, 1978-1993. AcoJemlc metqeocy MeJlcloe 4(4): 263-267.
8
CLCu 8eLLer Llfe lndex. Avallable aL hLLp://www.oecdbeLLerllfelndex.org/Loplcs/safeLy/. 1he average (l.e., mean)
CCLC assaulL and homlclde raLes are: 3.9 and 4.1 respecLlvely. 1he medlan homlclde and assaulL raLes were
used ln Lhls reporL because Lhe medlan, opposed Lo Lhe mean, conLrols for ouLlylng daLa polnLs, and ln Lhls case
provldes a more accuraLe represenLaLlon of Lhe CLCu meLrlcs belng dlscussed.
9
lJ.
10
lor example, accordlng Lo Lhe l8l, Lhere were 14,022 murders ln Lhe unlLed SLaLes ln 2011, and more Lhan 80
percenL of Lhose murders were commlLLed wlLh a gun. 1here were also 478,400 lncldenLs of gun-relaLed vlolence
for a raLe of 1 homlclde per every 43 vlolenL eplsodes. See, e.g., lanLy, M., and 1ruman, !.L. (2013) llrearm
vlolence, 1993-2011. 8oteoo of Iostlce 5totlstlcs 5peclol kepott. Avallable aL
hLLp://www.b[s.gov/conLenL/pub/pdf/fv9311.pdf on May 20, 2014.
11
llgure 8 reporLs homlclde daLa from 2011 because homlclde daLa broken down by weapon Lype from 2012 ls noL
yeL publlcly avallable.



12
1oronLo crlme daLa ls complled from sLaLlsLlcs kepL by Lhe 1oronLo pollce and ls avallable aL
hLLp://www.LoronLopollce.on.ca/sLaLlsLlcs/yLd_sLaLs.php
13
!ayme olsson and uavld 8ruse, 1be qoo plpelloe. Moles wbo btloq flteotms octoss botJet poy blqb ptlce fot fost
mooey, Aprll 19, 2013, 1oronLo SLar, avallable aL
hLLp://www.LhesLar.com/news/lnvesLlgaLlons/2013/04/19/Lhe_gun_plpellne_mules_who_brlng_flrearms_across_
border_pay_hlgh_prlce_for_fasL_money.hLml
14
As sLaLed ln oLher reporLs, lncludlng 1race Lhe Cuns (2010) (see page 32), crlme gun Lrace daLa ls a valuable Lool
Lo undersLand Lrafflcklng paLLerns, buL lL has some llmlLaLlons. llrsL, Lraced guns do noL represenL all crlme guns.
Many guns used ln crlme are never recovered by Lhe Chlcago ollce ueparLmenL. Second, noL all aLLempLs Lo Lrace
guns are successful. 1races may fall lf buslnesses fall Lo keep Lhe records necessary Lo Lrack Lhe chaln of ownershlp
or lf Lhe serlal number of Lhe gun has been obllLeraLed. ln 2010, Mayors AgalnsL lllegal Cuns reporLed LhaL A1l
successfully Lraced guns [usL over 60 of Lhe Llme. (See 1race Lhe Cuns, page 4). llnally, Lrace daLa only shows Lhe
flrsL reLall purchaser, and as dlscussed above, guns can change hands mulLlple Llmes before belng used ln a crlme
- one reason why calculaLlng shorL Llme Lo crlme" ls a valuable lndlcaLor of Lrafflcklng. noneLheless, Lrace daLa ls
recognlzed as an lmporLanL lndlcaLor of Lrafflcklng channels and ls regularly analyzed by A1l Lo Lrack Lrends. (See,
e.g., A1l's 2012 aggregaLe Lrace daLa reporLs, avallable here: hLLps://www.aLf.gov/sLaLlsLlcs/Lrace-daLa/2012-
Lrace-daLa.hLml)
13
lJ. aL pg. 4.
16
A1l, lollowlng Lhe Cun" (2000) (avallable aL hLLp://www.aLf.gov/slLes/defaulL/flles/asseLs/llrearms/chap1.pdf)
17
1he A1l provldes a descrlpLlon of Lhls process on lLs webslLe, avallable aL
hLLp://www.aLf.gov/publlcaLlons/facLsheeLs/facLsheeL-naLlonal-Lraclng-cenLer.hLml
18
A1l lacL SheeL on lnspecLlons of llrearms uealers (!uly 2004) (avallable aL
hLLp://www.[usLlce.gov/olg/reporLs/A1l/e0403/background.hLm.) 1he ueparLmenL of !usLlce ?ouLh Crlme Cun
lnLerdlcLlon 8eporLs also deflned shorL Llme-Lo-crlme" as 3 years or less. See e.g., Lhe Chlcago ?CCll reporL aL page
13. (experlenced Lrafflcklng lnvesLlgaLors vlew a Llme-Lo-crlme of less Lhan 3 years as an especlally useful
lndlcaLor) (avallable aL hLLps://www.aLf.gov/flles/publlcaLlons/download/ycgll/2000/clLyreporLs/chlcagoll.pdf).
A1l's annual Lrace reporLs also Lrack guns recovered ln Lhree years or less compared Lo guns recovered ln more
Lhan Lhree years. See, e.g., llllnols' reporL aL hLLps://www.aLf.gov/slLes/defaulL/flles/asseLs/sLaLlsLlcs/LracedaLa-
2012/2012-Lrace-daLa-llllnols.pdf. ln some press releases, A1l has deflned shorL Llme-Lo-crlme" as Lwo years.
See, e.g., A1l ress 8elease, avallable aL hLLps://www.aLf.gov/press/releases/2009/07/070809-ny-aLf-shares-Lrace-
daLa.hLml
19
ln lLs 2010 reporL, 1race Lhe Cuns: Lhe Llnk 8eLween Cun Laws and lnLersLaLe Cun 1rafflcklng," Mayors AgalnsL
lllegal Cuns analysls Lrace daLa from every sLaLe. 1hese sLaLlsLlcs were reporLed ln on page 6 of Lhe reporL
(avallable here: hLLp://LraceLheguns.org/reporL.pdf) and on Lhe lnLeracLlve map avallable here:
hLLp://LraceLheguns.org/#
20
ld.
21
ld.




22
1hls analysls does noL conLrol for each dealer's sales volume. uealers wlLh larger sales volume may also have
larger number of guns recovered ln crlmes Lraced back Lo Lhose sLores. Powever, lL ls noL currenLly feaslble Lo
conLrol for sales volume because Lhe gun lndusLry does noL release sales daLa. Moreover, more Lhan 6,000 dealers
were sources of guns recovered ln Chlcago crlmes, and Lhe average number of guns Lraced Lo Lhose sLores was
Lhree. 1hose sLores presumably have a wlde range of sales volume - from large sLores Lo smaller ones.
23
As reporLed by !ohn . PusLon, 8yan PaggerLy and !eremy Corner, cooveoleoce stote JeoJ. 2 employees,
wbolesolet ooJ posslbly o qoomoo, nov. 3, 2011, Chlcago 1rlbune, avallable aL
hLLp://arLlcles.chlcagoLrlbune.com/2011-11-03/news/cL-meL-four-people-kllled-2-20111104_1_convenlence-sLore-
securlLy-guard-gunmen.
24
As reporLed by Lrln Meyer, uarryl Polllday and Lmlly Morrls, 1eeo kllleJ 14-eot-OlJ 8oy to Aveoqe lotbet's
ueotb, ltosecotots Alleqe, Aprll 9, 2013, unAlnfo Chlcago, avallable aL
hLLp://www.dnalnfo.com/chlcago/20130409/pllsen/Leen-kllled-14-year-old-pllsen-avenge-faLhers-deaLh-
prosecuLors
23
As reporLed by Lrln Meyer, Moo cbotqeJ lo 2012 utlve-8y uooble MotJet, March 13, 2013, unAlnfo Chlcago,
avallable aL hLLp://www.dnalnfo.com/chlcago/20130313/back-of-yards/man-charged-2012-drlve-by-double-
murder
26
S.649, Safe CommunlLles, Safe Schools AcL of 2013 (113
Lh
Congress), S. AmdL 713 Lo S. 649 & P.8.1363, ubllc
SafeLy and Second AmendmenL 8lghLs roLecLlon AcL of 2013 (113
Lh
Congress), Leahy-Colllns 1rafflcklng
AmendmenL, S.AmdL. 713 Lo S.649 (113
Lh
Congress). AfLer Lhe mass shooLlng ln newLown, ConnecLlcuL, llllnols
SenaLors Mark klrk and 8lchard uurbln among oLhers were sponsors of comprehenslve, bl-parLlsan leglslaLlon Lo
requlre background checks for prlvaLe gun sales. 1he blll ls sLlll pendlng.
27
S. AmdL. 713 Lo S. 649, ubllc SafeLy and Second AmendmenL 8lghLs roLecLlon AcL of 2013 (113
Lh
Congress)
28
Analysls by Mayors AgalnsL lllegal Cuns of daLa provlded by Lhe lederal 8ureau of lnvesLlgaLlon, CenLers for
ulsease ConLrol and cerLaln sLaLe law enforcemenL agencles. Avallable aL
hLLp://3gbwlr1ummda16xrhf4do9d21bsx.wpenglne.neLdna-cdn.com/wp-conLenL/uploads/2014/02/MAlC_-_2_-
_8ackground_checks_naLlonal_charLs_-_b.pdf
29
S. 179 (113
Lh
Congress). lull LexL of Lhe blll avallable aL hLLp://Lhomas.loc.gov/cgl-bln/query/z?c113:S.179:
30
lrank Maln, cblcoqo Cooqs uoot nove to Co lot to 8oy Coos, AugusL 26, 2012, Chlcago Sun 1lmes, avallable aL
hLLp://www.sunLlmes.com/news/crlme/14713638-418/chlcago-gangs-donL-have-Lo-go-far-Lo-buy-
guns.hLml#.u3z7C9!dW_M
31
WebsLer uW, vernlck !S, 8ulzacchelll M1. LffecLs of sLaLe-level flrearm seller accounLablllLy pollcles on flrearms
Lrafflcklng." !ournal of urban PealLh 2009,86:323-337. (uslng daLa from A1l crlme gun Lraces from 34 u.S. clLles,
legal research on sLaLe gun sales laws, and surveys of law enforcemenL, [Lhe researchers] found LhaL
comprehenslve sLaLe or local regulaLlon of gun dealers, coupled wlLh regular compllance lnspecLlons, were
assoclaLed wlLh slgnlflcanLly less Lrafflcklng of guns Lo crlmlnals. 1hls 2009 sLudy was Lhe flrsL Lo lncorporaLe
measures of Lhe enforcemenL of gun sale laws lnLo a sLudy of Lhe effecLlveness of Lhese laws.
32
As a member of Lhe u.S. Pouse of 8epresenLaLlves, llllnols SenaLor Mark klrk was Lhe co-sponsored federal
leglslaLlon LhaL would have requlred background checks for all dealer employees. See P.8.6676 (110
Lh
Congress)



33
A1l 2012 Summary: llrearms 8eporLed LosL or SLolen, aL pg. 4. 8eporL ls avallable aL
hLLps://www.aLf.gov/slLes/defaulL/flles/asseLs/llrearms/2012-summary-flrearms-reporLed-losL-and-sLolen-2.pdf
34
keJocloq Coo vloleoce lo Ametlco, lofotmloq lollcy wltb vlJeoce ooJ Aoolysls (uanlel WebsLer & !on vernlck
eds., 2013) pgs. 127-129, full LexL avallable aL hLLp://[hupress.flles.wordpress.com/2013/01/1421411113_updf.pdf