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Measures of association
1
Three key dimensions to epidemiologic
studies
Measures of association
Relative measures (relative risks, rates, and odds)
Absolute measures (risk and rate differences)
Study design
Observational
Cohort
Case-control
Cross-sectional
Experimental
Randomized trial
Field trials
Group randomized trials
Units of analysis
Individual
Group
2
Three key dimensions to epidemiologic
studies
Measures of association
Relative measures (relative risks, rates, and odds)
Absolute measures (risk and rate differences)
Study design
Observational
Cohort
Case-control
Cross-sectional
Experimental
Randomized trial
Field trials
Group randomized trials
Units of analysis
Individual
Group
3
Measurement of association
4
The world
5
The epidemiologic study
6
The epidemiologic study
7
Reminder...prevalence (proportion)
Number of cases
at a specified
Prevalence =
time
Number of persons in
population
8
Prevalence ratio
prevalenceexp osed
prevalence ratio =
prevalenceun exp osed
10
Relative risk (risk ratio)
Rexp osed
RR =
Run exp osed
11
Risk difference
12
Reminder...incidence rate
13
Relative rate (incidence rate ratio)
IRexp osed
IRR =
IRun exp osed
Ranges from 0 to +∞ , has no units
14
Rate difference
15
GI infection: what are the causes?
16
Simonsen, Frisch, and Ethelberg. Socioeconomic Risk Factors for Bacterial Grastrointestinal infections. Epidemiology. 2008; 19(2):282-290
GI infection and SES: an association?
19
Simonsen, Frisch, and Ethelberg. Socioeconomic Risk Factors for Bacterial Grastrointestinal infections. Epidemiology. 2008; 19(2):282-290
GI infection and SES
Simonsen, Frisch, and Ethelberg. Socioeconomic Risk Factors for Bacterial Grastrointestinal infections. Epidemiology. 2008; 19(2):282-290
20
Reminder...odds
probability, or risk
p
odds =
1− p
21
Relative odds (odds ratio)
pexp osed
oddsexp osed 1 − pexp osed
OR = =
oddsun exp osed pun exp osed
1 − pun exp osed
22
Absolute vs. relative scales
23
Absence of an effect in the absolute scale
24
The relative effect on a relative scale
Risk difference
Relative effect =
Risk in unexposed
25
Therefore...
Relative Rexp osed − Run exp osed Rexp osed Run xp osed
effect
= = − = RR − 1
Run exp osed Run exp osed Run exp osed
26
Implications
27
Key way to see through this
28
Reminder...risk and incidence rate
29
Reminder...risk and incidence rate
30
Epidemiologic confusion
31
The world
32
The epidemiologic study
33
The epidemiologic study
34
The “2x2” table
Exposed a b a+b
35
Relative risk, i.e., risk ratio
a
Rexp osed =
a+b
c
Run exp osed =
c+d
a
RR = a + b
c
c+d
36
Relative odds, i.e., odds ratio
a a a
Pexp osed a + b a + b a + b a
Oddsexp osed = = = = =
1 − Pexp osed 1 − a a+b−a b b
a+b a+b a+b
c c c
Pune xp osed c + d c + d c + d c
Oddsun xp osed = = = = =
1 − Pun xp osed 1 − c c+d −c d d
c+d c+d c+d
a
Oddsexp osed b a*d
OR = = =
Oddsun exp osed c b * c
d 37
Example
Exposed a b a+b
38
Example
Exposed a b 100
39
Example
Exposed 20 b 100
40
Example
Exposed 20 80 100
41
Example
Exposed 20 80 100
Not exposed 25 175 200
Total 45 255 300
20
20*175
RR = 100 = 1.60 OR = = 1.75
25 25*80
200
42
Going back to an example
T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9 T10 T11 T12 T13 T14 T15 T16 T17 T18 T19 T20 TT
P1 14
P2 20
P3 11
P4 11
P5 20
P6 20
P7 10
P8 20
P9 2
P10 9
43
An example
T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9 T10 T11 T12 T13 T14 T15 T16 T17 T18 T19 T20 TT
P1 14
P2 20
P3 11
P4 11
P5 20
P6 20
P7 10
P8 20
P9 2
P10 9
44
An example
T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9 T10 T11 T12 T13 T14 T15 T16 T17 T18 T19 T20 TT
P1 14
P2 20
P3 11
P4 11
P5 20
P6 20
P7 10
P8 20
P9 2
P10 10
45
Cohort approach
2 2
IRexp osed (14 + 20 + 10 + 2)
IRR = = = 46 = 4.0
IRun exp osed 1 1
(20 + 11 + 11 + 20 + 20 + 10) 92
2
Rexp osed
RR = = 4 = 3.0
Run exp osed 1
6
pexp 0.5
1 − pexp 1 − 0.5 2*5
OR = = = 5.0 also can be calculated as = 5.0
pun exp 0.167 1* 2
1 − pun exp 1 − 0.167
46
Notes
47
Why? (first premise)
a
Disease No disease Total
RR = a + b
c Exposed a b a+b
a a
is always < Total a+c b+d a+b+c+d
a+b b
c c
is always <
c+d d
a a a
a +b a c b > a +b
and if > 1, then, > , and
c a+b c+d c c
c+d d c+d
48
Why? (second premise)
RR = a + b Exposed a b a+b
For OR, RR, and IRR, if value is >1 typically we say that
there is a “positive association”, 1 is no association, and < 1
is a “negative association”
Of course, interpretation fully depends on what is “exposed”
and what is “non-exposed”
Remember...the “null” is 1 for relative measures of
association and 0 for absolute measures; hence “away
from” or “towards” the null
50
The “2x2” table involving time
Disease Time
Exposed a T1
Not exposed c To
51
Incidence rate ratio
a
IRexp osed =
T1
c
IRun exp osed =
T0
a
T1
IRR =
c
T0
52
Example
Disease Time
Exposed a T1
Not Exposed c To
53
Example
Disease Time
Exposed 20 10,000
Total 45 30,000
54
Example
Disease Time
Exposed 20 10,000
Total 45 30,000
20
10, 000
IRR = = 1.6
25
20, 000 55
Attributable fraction among exposed
R exposed -R unexposed
AFexposed =
R exposed
56
And...
57
Attributable fraction in population
R population -R unexposed
AFpopulation =
R population
so....if subtracting the R among unexposed from overall population R gives
us the effect, then dividing this by R among population gives the proportion
of effect among population that is due to exposure
this is often interpreted as the proportion of disease cases in the population
that would be removed if there were no longer any exposure
58
And...
p*(RR-1)
AFpopulation =
p*(RR-1)+1
59