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Project #2 Using Matlab (Two Box Climate Model)

Chuxun(Tracy) Xu, MTHSC 111, Section 002


11/30/12
Introduction
In the two box climate model, we are modeling how the ocean responds to various factors that can
contribute to the greenhouse effect, and global warming. By using the model and Matlab, we plot the
temperature vs. time as we see how the two layers of the ocean, the mixed layer and the deep layer,
experience temperature change as time passes due to external inputs that contribute to the greenhouse
effect, such as CO
2
and deep sea vents. We generate three plots, one that models over a short time
period, one that models over a middling time period, and one that models over a long time period. The
results from each of these plots will give us an idea as to how quickly or slowly oceanic temperature is
effected external inputs. It is important to keep in mind that the mixed layer and deep layer are
separate only in name but not physically as the two layers are constantly interacting with each other.
Description of Model
The model is used to demonstrate how the ocean responds to inputs that can cause temperatures to
rise and trigger the greenhouse effect and global warming. We divide the ocean into two hypothetical
layers, one at less than 100 m in depth, called the mixed layer; one at an average of 4000 m in depth,
called the deep layer. These two layers interact with each other constantly and transfers energy back
and forth [1]. The mixed layer is exposed to the atmosphere and interacts with it, but the deep layer
interacts only with the mixed layer, so we know that any kind of temperature shift in the deep layer is
directly the result of disturbances/change in the mixed layer.
Our model looks like this:
C
m
T
m
= F-
1
T
m
-
2
(T
m
-T
d
)
C
d
T
d
=
2
(T
m-
T
d
)
Each parameter in the model has its own meaning. They are:
T=Time
T
m
= The temperature of the mixed layer. We assume it is measure as the deviation from the mixed
layers equilibrium temperature. Tm is zero initially but when we solve the model, we know the change
in Tm as the temperature rises.
T
d
= The temperature of the deep layer. It is measured as the difference from the equilibrium
temperature of the deep layer. Td is initially zero.
F= The external input which can be any outside factor that influences global warming, for example,
carbon dioxide gas. It does not have to be constant but in our model we assume that F is constant. The
external inputs will further discussed.
C
m
= The heat capacity of the mixed layer
C
d
= The heat capacity of the deep layer

1=
Exchange coefficient that determines the rate at which heat is transferred from the mixed layer to
the atmosphere.

2=
Exchange coefficient that determines the rate at which heat is transferred from the mixed layer to
the deep layer.

The model can be manipulated and rearranged into a fashion that follows the basic protein synthesis
model. By hand we can then find the two response times, one for the mixed layer, the other for the
deep layer. Of course, it is much easier to do it using Matlab, as we have done in this project.
It is important to discuss the use of external factors that influence the model. These factors are what
cause the oceans to respond by temperature rise. To be more specific we can consider the layers
separately. Recall the mixed layer interacts with both the deep layer and the atmosphere. Here, the
external influences can include CO
2
from the atmosphere, pollution (sewage, wastes that have been
dumped into the ocean) and the weather (for example the sun), and many more factors because a great
deal goes on near the ocean surface. When we consider the deep layer, where it is cold and dark and
not a lot of life reaches the bottom, there are not a lot of factors that can cause temperature rise, but
that does not mean total absence of external factors. Geologic cracks and faults run along the ocean
floor, and deep sea vents can also be found here as well. Many deep sea vents release methane gas
which will definitely contribute to temperature rise. It is also important to remember that the deep layer
also interacts with the mixed layer, and it is under its influence [3]. Should the mixed layer experience
disturbances, the deep layer conditions will change.
The graphs we have constructed in Matlab for this project are very simple models. We have only the
mixed layer and deep layer. This are only two variables. Outside the classroom, box climate models get
much, much more complicated, but the principle is the same. There are often five, six, seven factors or
more to take into consideration when we do complex models, for example, Earths climate regimes.
Here we must consider control of atmospheric clouds and water vapor amounts, control of depth and
density of the oceans thermohaline circulations by tropical cyclones, and the dependence of carbon
dioxide content on water vapor and oceanic circulations [2]. These complex models can find patterns in
weather disturbances and alert government agencies to take necessary actions. There are many more
applications involved with the two boxed climate model.

Annotated Solution Discussion
>> %Set up A
>> lambda1=0.01

lambda1 =

0.0100

>> lambda2=0.02000

lambda2 =

0.0200

>> Cm=0.34625

Cm =

0.3463

>> Cd=0.769437

Cd =

0.7694

>> rho=Cd/Cm

rho =

2.2222

>> alpha=lambda1/Cm;
>> beta=lambda2/Cm;
>> A=[-alpha-beta,beta;beta/rho,-beta/rho];
>> %Find A inverse
>> Ainv=(1/det(A))*[A(2,2),-A(1,2);-A(2,1),A(1,1)];
>> %Set up external input
>> F=0.06

F =

0.0600

>> %Find the particular solution
>> TP=-Ainv*[F/Cm;0]

TP =

6.0000
6.0000

>> %Find solution for initial conditions Tm=0 and Td=0
>> [V,D]=eig(A);
>> Vinv=(1/det(V))*[V(2,2),-V(1,2);-V(2,1),V(1,1)];

>> C=-Vinv*TP;
>> Ev=diag(D);
>> %Find response times using equations above
>> tRmixed=Cm*log(2)/(lambda1+lambda2)

tRmixed =

8.0001

>> tRdeep=rho*Cm*(log(2)/(lambda1*lambda2))*(lambda1+lambda2)

tRdeep =

80.0000

>> %Next is the Quasi Equilibrium Estimate of Tm
>> Tmshort=F/(lambda1+lambda2)

Tmshort =

2

>> %Next is the Long Term Equilibrium Tm and Td
>> Tmlong=F/lambda1

Tmlong =

6

>> Tdlong=F/lambda1

Tdlong =

6

>> %Set up Tm and Td solutions
>> Tm@(t)(C(1)*V(1,1)*exp(Ev(1)*t)+C(2)*V(1,2)*exp(Ev(2)*t)+TP(1));
>> Tm=@(t)(C(1)*V(1,1)*exp(Ev(1)*t)+C(2)*V(1,2)*exp(Ev(2)*t)+TP(1));
>> Td=@(t)(C(1)*V(2,1)*exp(Ev(1)*t)+C(2)*V(2,2)*exp(Ev(2)*t)+TP(2));
>> %We plot Tm and Td over a few Tm response times
>> time=linspace(0,4*tRmixed,100);
>> figure
>> plot(time,Tm(time),time,Td(time),'+');
>> xlabel('Time')
>> ylabel('T_m');
>> title('Ocean Layer Temperatures');
>> legend('Mixed Layer','Deep Layer');


Temperature vs. time plot over short time period as we see how the two layers of the ocean, the mixed
layer and the deep layer, experience temperature change as time passes due to external inputs that
contribute to the greenhouse effect, such as CO
2
and deep sea vents. Here we see the mixed layer is more
affected by the external factors than the deep layer as the trend line for the mixed layer starts at 0 but
rapidly approaches a higher temperature. Since the mixed layer is closer to the atmosphere, a higher
amount of CO
2
would reach this part of the ocean so the result is expected.
>> time=linspace(0,8*tRmixed,300);
>> figure
>> plot(time,Tm(time),time,Td(time),'+');
>> xlabel('Time in Years')
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Time
T
m
Ocean Layer Temperatures


Mixed Layer
Deep Layer
Figure 1: Simple Two Box Climate Model: Short Time Scale
>> ylabel('Temperature Degrees C');
>> title('Ocean Layer Temperatures');
>> legend('Mixed Layer','Deep Layer');


Temperature vs. time plot over middling time period as we see how the two layers of the ocean, the
mixed layer and the deep layer, experience temperature change as time passes due to external inputs
that contribute to the greenhouse effect, such as CO
2
and deep sea vents. Here we see the mixed layer is
more affected by the external factors than the deep layer as the trend line for the mixed layer starts at 0
but rapidly approaches a higher temperature. However, compared to the first graph of short time period,
we see the deep layer is increasing the pace of temperature rise and is closer to the trendline of the
mixed layer. Over time, some factor (or factors) seems to have caused a disturbance in the deep oceanic
layer causing it to warm faster than it had previously.

>> time=linspace(0,6*tRdeep,500);
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Time in Years
T
e
m
p
e
r
a
t
u
r
e

D
e
g
r
e
e
s

C
Ocean Layer Temperatures


Mixed Layer
Deep Layer
Figure 2: Simple Two Box Climate Model: Mid Time Scale
>> figure
>> plot(time,Tm(time),time,Td(time),'+');
>> xlabel('Time in Years')
>> ylabel('Temperature Degrees C');
>> title('Ocean Layer Temperatures');
>> legend('Mixed Layer','Deep Layer');


Temperature vs. time plot over long time period as we see how the two layers of the ocean, the mixed
layer and the deep layer, experience temperature change as time passes due to external inputs that
contribute to the greenhouse effect, such as CO
2
and deep sea vents. Here we see BOTH the mixed layer
and deep layer equally affected by the external factors as the trendlines for both layers start at 0 but
rapidly approaches a higher temperature. Eventually the temperatures reached by the mixed layer and
0 100 200 300 400 500
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Time in Years
T
e
m
p
e
r
a
t
u
r
e

D
e
g
r
e
e
s

C
Ocean Layer Temperatures


Mixed Layer
Deep Layer
Figure 3: Simple Two Box Climate Model: Long Time Scale
the deep layer become almost the same. Over time, external factors seemed to have caused various
oceanic disturbances that caused the mixed layer and deep layer to warm at up an extremely rapid rate.
The approximate response time for the mixed layer was 8.0001, or 8, years.
The approximate response time for the deep layer was 80 years.
The quasi mixed ocean layer equilibrium was 2.
Conclusion
We have successfully modeled the trends in temperature increase in the mixed layer and the deep
layers of the ocean over a short time period, middling time period, and long time period. We have found
that the response time of the deep layer is much longer than the response time of the mixed layer. It is
interesting to consider the interactions at work between the mixed layer and deep layer and between
the mixed layer and external forces such as carbon dioxide gas from the atmosphere and pollution. Once
the mixed layer has been affected, we see how over time the deep layer is also affected since it only
interacts with the mixed layer. The trends found in the graphs for this project can serve as the basis for
convincing a skeptical audience of the severity of oceanic warming over time. The last graph is especially
convincing when the audience sees the trend of rapid temperature rise in both the deep layer and the
mixed layer. They know that not only one part of the ocean is affected, but all of it. Consider the
consequences: rise in global temperature, sea levels, melted ice caps, weather pattern extremes, and
disturbance of living ecosystems, marine life in particular[4]. The data from these graphs, combined with
solid evidence such as graphs on trends of global temperature fluctuations, rise in sea levels, rise in
carbon dioxide levels, etc., would make a very convincing argument that could persuade government
agencies and the public alike to take action.
References
[1] J. Peterson. Calculus for Biologists: A Beginning-Getting Ready for Models and Their Analysis: Fourth
Edition. Gneural Gnome Press, 2012. URL: http://www.lulu.com/Gneural Gnome

[2] Westbrook, G. K. et al. Escape of methane gas from the seabed along the West Spitsbergen
continental margin. Geophysical Research Letters 10.1029/2009GL039191, 2009

[3] Emanuel, Kerry. A Simple Model of Multiple Climate Regimes. Journal of Geophysical Research, 107,
1029-2001, 2002.

[4] National Climatic Data Center. Global Climate Change Indicators. National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) webpage, 2012. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/indicators/