CALCULATION OF POINTS OF NO RETURN (PNR) & CRITICAL POINTS

(CP)

Disclaimer:
Retired Air Commodore John Chesterfield AM MRAeS RAAF has kindly given Paradise Air
Safaris permission to provide these notes to assist members.

I highly respect anything John has to say about aviation, however have no idea as to the
correctness or accuracy of the content. Use them for whatever benefit you determine but at your
own risk.

Contents

1. Point of No Return
2. Calculation of PNR When the Alternate is the Departure Field
3. Calculation of a PNR When the Alternate is on Track Between the Departure
Point and the Destination
4. Calculation Of A Critical Point
5. Calculation Of Latest Point Of Safe Diversion (LPSD) To An Off-Track
Alternate

There may be occasions when a landing at the planned destination is not possible due
to weather, and insufficient fuel is available to fly to the destination, attempt an
approach and then divert to an alternate.
In this case, pre-flight planning must include calculation of a Point of No Return
(PNR). The PNR is also known as the Point of Safe Return (PSR). This is the furthest
point along track that you can fly towards the destination and have sufficient fuel to
divert to an alternate, with safe reserves on arrival. In other words, it is your last
chance to assess your prospect of a successful approach and landing at your
destination, and decide whether to go on or to divert. If any doubt exists, divert to
the alternate.
1. Point of No Return (AKA point of safe return)
There are a number of methods which can be used to calculate a PNR/PSR, but the
one most favoured uses what are called Specific Fuel Flows (SFF).
These are calculated by dividing the planned cruise fuel flow by the expected ground
speeds towards the destination and towards the alternate field, and the result is the fuel
required per nautical mile travelled in each direction.
The general formula used to calculate the distance to the PNR from the Alternate is:
Distance to PNR = Flight Fuel
Available (Alternate to Destination) ÷
(SFF (To Destination) + SFF (To
Alternate))
The Flight Fuel Available (FFA) is the Useable Fuel on Board (FOB) minus the Fixed
Reserve (FR), any holding fuel and any taxi allowance.
Variable Reserve
For all IFR flights, and for all extended range flights requiring a PNR, you should
allow an additional fuel reserve to provide for winds stronger than forecast or for a
higher fuel consumption than that specified in the POH. Conventionally, this is
achieved by reducing the Flight Fuel Available figure by 15%, i.e., dividing the FFA
by 1.15.
2. Calculation of PNR When the Alternate is the Departure Field
This is the simplest situation to calculate.
As an example, let’s assume a flight from A to B, with A as the alternate field. The
distance A to B is 500 nms. Max range cruise power will be used, giving a fuel flow
of 80 litres/hr, and this fuel flow will also be used for a Fixed Reserve and any
holding. At this power setting the planned TAS is 160 kts and a 25 kts tailwind is
forecast A to B. Therefore, the ground speed to B is 185 kts, with a return ground
speed to A of 135 kts.
The ground specific fuel flow (GSFF) "out" will be 0.43 litres/nm (80/185), and the
GSFF "home" will be 0.59 litres/nm (80/135). The sum of the GSFFs "out" and
"home" is 1.02.
The weight of passengers and baggage we want to carry is 480 kg. We can also carry
390 litres of useable fuel without exceeding the Maximum AUW.
To establish the Flight Fuel Available for the PNR calculation, we must subtract from
the Useable Fuel the Fixed Reserve (60 litres), the taxi fuel (10 litres) and the climb
allowance (11 litres). The forecast for a possible return to A does not indicate the
need for any holding fuel.
Therefore, the FFA is 390 - (60+10+11): 309 litres.
This figure is now divided by 1.15 to provide a Variable Reserve, giving a final FFA
of 269 litres.
The distance to the PNR from A is therefore 269 ÷ 1.02 = 264 nm from A.
 3. Calculation of a PNR When the Alternate is on Track Between the Departure
Point and the Destination
The calculation of a PNR for this case is essentially the same as before, except that the
"datum" for calculation is over the alternate.
We will use the previous example of a flight from A to B over a distance of 500 nms,
but with the possible alternate C 190 nms along track towards B, i.e., the distance
from C to B is 310 nms.

The other planning data remains the same as in the previous example , i.e.:
a. Flight Fuel Available at A = 269 litres (after allowing for a
Variable Reserve)
b. Cruise Fuel Flow = 80 litres/hr
c. Ground Speed Out = 185 kts
d. Ground Speed Home = 135 kts
We first determine how much fuel is required to fly from A to overhead C. This is
equal to the distance A to C (190 nms) multiplied by the GSFF "out" (0.43
litres/nm): 82 litres.
This is subtracted from the Flight Fuel Available A to B (269 litres) to give a Flight
Fuel Available C to B of 187 litres.
The distance of the PNR from C is therefore 187 ÷ 1.02: 183 nms. This is 127 nms
short of B, and if the aircraft flies beyond this point there will not be sufficient fuel to
return to C with the fixed reserve intact.

4. CALCULATION OF A CRITICAL POINT

While the distance to a PNR is dependent on fuel availability and fuel flow, the
distance to a Critical Point (CP) is independent of fuel considerations and is based on
groundspeeds only.
The CP is also known as the "Equi-time Point" (ETP), because it is the point along
track from where it will take the same time to continue to the planned destination as it
will to divert/return to an alternate.
The CP/ETP is normally associated with an abnormal flight condition or an
emergency where there is a need to minimise the time before landing. For example, a
passenger who falls ill, or an abnormal system operation, eg, an alternator failure in
IMC, with a need to minimise the flight time.
The general formula used to calculate the distance of a CP/ETP from an Alternate is:
Distance to CP = Distance (Alt to Dest)
x Groundspeed to Alt ÷ (Groundspeed
to Dest + Groundspeed to Alternate)
To illustrate, we will calculate a CP/ETP for the previous example flight.
The required data is:
 • Distance Alternate (C) to Destination (B) = 310 nms
• TAS = 125 kts
• Tailwind component = 25 kts
• Groundspeed "on" to B = 150 kts
• Groundspeed "back" to C = 100 kts
The distance to the CP from C is therefore (310 x 100) ÷ (150 + 100) = 124 nms,
which is 186 nms short of B. From this point the time on to B is 1.24 hours
(186/150), and the time back to C is also 1.24 hours (124/100).

5. Calculation of a latest point of safe diversion (LPSD) to an Off-track alternate

Introduction
1. The calculation of a Latest Point of Safe Diversion (LPSD) to an off-track alternate
should be made if there will not be sufficient Fuel On Board at planned fuel
consumption rate to fly to a destination and then divert to an alternate with reserves
intact.
2. The calculation of a LPSD is slightly more complex than calculating a PNR for an
on-track alternate. However, calculation of a LPSD should be a major flight safety
consideration for a long flight over water or over other inhospitable terrain with no
on-track alternates.
3. As with the calculation of a PNR for an alternate on track, the calculation of a
LPSD is dependent on Safe Fuel Endurance.
This is calculated as follows:

Component Time Quantity

Climb & Cruise Total ETI (Distance ÷ GS) + (Total ETI + Climb Allowance) x
1
Fuel Climb Allowance Planned Cruise Fuel Flow

2 Variable Reserve 15% of 1. 15% of 1.

3 Flight Fuel 1+2 1+2

Required

4 Fixed Reserve 45 minutes 45 minutes @ Max Endurance Fuel

Flow

5 Holding Fuel As required Holding Time Required x Max

Endurance Fuel Flow

6 Taxy Fuel Nil As required

 7 Total Fuel Required Total 1 - 5 Total 1 - 6

8 Fuel on Board As loaded ÷ Cruise Fuel Flow As loaded (at least = 7)

9 Margin (Surplus) Surplus Quantity ÷ Cruise 8-7

Fuel Flow

Maximum
10 8+9
Endurance (Tanks
Empty)

4. The Flight Fuel Available (FFA) is equal to the FOB (8) less the Reserves (2 & 4),
any Holding Fuel required (5) and taxy fuel (6).
5. The Safe Endurance Available (SEA) for LPSD calculations is determined by
dividing the FFA by the planned Fuel Flow, eg, if the FFA is 350 litres and the
Planned Fuel Flow (including an allowance for the climb) is 70 LPH, the SEA is 350
÷ 70 = 5.0 hrs (300 mins).
Pre-flight Planning for a LPSD
6. As an example, we will assume a planned flight from A to B on a track of 110°M
over a distance of 300 nms. If a landing at B is impossible for some reason, eg,
weather, the nearest suitable alternate is C, on a track of 332°M from B at a distance
of 117 nms.

7. The planned TAS is 150 kts and the forecast wind is 315 at 20 kts. Therefore, the
planned groundspeed from A to B is 168 kts with an ETI of 107 minutes, and the
planned groundspeed from B to C is 131 kts with an ETI of 54 minutes. If the aircraft
flew from A to B and then had to divert from B to C, a Safe Endurance of 161 (107 +
54) minutes would be required. The weather forecast shows an INTER requirement
for the ETA.
8. The fuel calculations for the leg A - B, based on a cruise fuel flow of 80 LPH and a
max endurance fuel flow of 60 LPH are as follows:
Cruise Fuel 142 litres (107 mins x 80 LPH)
Climb Allowance 15 litres (from POH)
Variable Reserve (VR) 23 litres (15% of 157 litres)
Flight Fuel Required (FFR) 180 litres (Cruise, Climb and VR)
Fixed Reserve (FR) 45 litres (45 mins @ 60 LPH)
Holding Fuel (HF) 30 litres (30 mins @ 60 LPH)
Taxy Fuel 5 litres (from POH)
Total Fuel Required 260 litres (FFR + VR + FR + HF + taxy)
Fuel On Board (FOB) 280 litres (tank capacity to max AUW)
Margin 20 litres FOB – Total Required)
Maximum Endurance 210 minutes (280 litres ÷ 80 LPH)
10. However, the SEA is the FOB less the VR, FR, Holding and Taxy Fuel, calculated
at the Cruise Fuel Flow. Therefore, the SEA in this example is (280 - 23 – 30 – 45 –
5) = 177 litres @ 80 LPH = 133 minutes. However, the SER A > B > C is 161
minutes, so there is insufficient fuel to fly from A to B, hold for 30 minutes and then
divert to C with the Reserves intact.
11. In this case, a LPSD along the track A to B needs to be calculated
12. An initial estimate of the LPSD can be made using the formula:
Approx. ETI to LPSD = SEA x ETI to Planned Destination
Safe Endurance Required (SER)

13. This can be solved on the nav computer as follows:

14. Solving for the example flight:

ETI to initial estimate of LPSD = 133 (SEA) x 107 (ETI to B) ÷ 161 (SER) = 88
minutes
15. Therefore, the initial estimated LPSD is 88 minutes from A, ie, 250 nms along
track at the planned groundspeed of 170 kts.

Fine-Tuning of LPSD
16. This initial estimate of the LPSD must be fine-tuned by plotting the estimated
LPSD on a chart, eg, the ERC, and measuring the track and distance from the
estimated LPSD to the Alternate. The forecast wind and TAS is then applied to this
data to determine a revised groundspeed and ETI from the initially estimated LPSD to
the Alternate.
17. In the example, the track and distance from the initially estimated LPSD is 353° M
and 86 nms. The groundspeed is calculated to be 135 kts, giving a revised ETI from
the LPSD > C of 38 minutes.
18. Therefore, the revised SER is 88 minutes (A to Initial LPSD) + 38 minutes
(revised ETI from the initial LPSD to C) = 126 minutes. However, the SEA is 133
minutes, so the pre-planned ETI to the initial LPSD can be increased to provide for
this 7 minute difference.
19. If the position of the revised LPSD is moved the full 7 minutes further along track
towards B (20 nms @ 170 kts GS), the distance from the LPSD to C (and the ETI)
will also be increased to some extent, probably increasing the SER beyond the SEA.
To counter this effect, the LPSD is moved only approximately half the full amount,
eg, 4 minutes / 12 nms.
21. The revised LPSD is therefore 92 minutes from A (262 nms @ the planned GS of
170 kts).

Inflight Revision of LPSD

22. The planned LPSD should be revised in-flight to take account of variations in
groundspeed (and possibly variations in fuel consumption). This must be done
sufficiently in advance of the planned LPSD to allow for slower actual groundspeeds
that may significantly increase the required endurance, and enable time for a
recalculation of the LPSD before it is passed!!
23. This will require a position fix somewhere before the planned LPSD (using either
radio-navaids or GPS) which can be used to determine actual wind/groundspeed. A
new ETI to B is then calculated from the fix, together with any estimated changed in
ETI from the LPSD to C.
24. In the example, a GPS fix is planned 150 nms along the A > B track. This fix is
achieved 60 minutes along track and indicates a new wind of 020°/15 kts, with a
revised groundspeed of 150 kts. The distance from the fix to the planned LPSD is 112
nms (262 – 150), which at the new GS of 150 kts will take 45 minutes. The new wind
is applied to the LPSD > C track of 348° and 90 nms to give a revised GS on that leg
of 138 kts, with a revised ETI of 39mins. Therefore the SER from the fix is 45
minutes (fix to LPSD) + 39 minutes (LPSD to C) = 84 minutes. The SEA from the fix
is 133 – 60 = 73 minutes. Therefore, the SER is now 11 mins more than the SEA and
the LPSD must be moved further from B.
25. Intuitively, moving the LPSD towards A about half the 11 minute correction
needed, say, 6 mins or 15 nms at the revised GS of 150 kts will also reduce the ETI
from the LPSD > C by a similar amount. The in-flight revision now places the LPSD
247 nms from A (262 – 15)
Conclusion
26. The calculation of a LPSD to an off-track alternate is slightly more complex than
determining a PNR for an on track alternate, and in-flight revision of the pre-flight
calculation takes some time and "number-crunching".
27. However, the procedure becomes easier with practice and, if performing the
calculations make the difference between a safe arrival at an alternate or a forced
landing/ditching short of the original destination or an alternate, then the effort is
certainly worthwhile.
28. Finally, if there is any doubt approaching the LPSD about a safe landing at the
planned destination, make a firm decision and divert at, or before, the LPSD.