Vous êtes sur la page 1sur 11

FINANCIAL SONAR: REALITY RADAR ON COMPANY PERFORMANCE

CATERPILLAR INC NYSE CAT


MACHINERY INDUSTRY
BUY
OVERALL RATING FOR 3RD QUARTER 2012
www.jeffersonresearch.com
2012 Jefferson Research & Management Report prepared on November 16, 2012
OUR EVALUATION OF CAT
CATERPILLAR INC is showing strong Earnings Quality, Cash Flow Quality, Balance
Sheet Quality and Operating Efficiency, and Valuation suggests a lower amount of price
risk. When combined, CAT deserves a BUY rating.
The Earnings Quality rating improved the most during the most recent quarter. Though
this dimension and all of the others were either stronger or unchanged at worst, the
overall rating is already a BUY, the best rating available.
HISTORICAL RATINGS
Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012
OVERALL RATING BUY BUY BUY BUY
EARNINGS QUALITY STRONG STRONG STRONG STRONGEST
CASH FLOW QUALITY STRONGEST STRONGEST STRONGEST STRONGEST
OPERATING EFFICIENCY STRONG STRONG STRONG STRONG
BALANCE SHEET WEAK STRONGEST STRONGEST STRONGEST
VALUATION LEAST RISK LEAST RISK LEAST RISK LEAST RISK
FINANCIAL SONAR FOR CAT
3RD QUARTER 2012
V
A
L
U
A
T
I
O
N
L
E
A
S
T
R
IS
K
B
A
L
A
N
C
E

S
H
E
E
T
S
T
R
O
N
G
E
S
T
O
P
E
R
A
TING EFFIC
IE
N
C
Y
STRONG
C
A
S
H

F
L
O
W

Q
U
A
L
I
T
Y
S
T
R
O
N
G
E
S
T
EA
R
N
I
N
G
S

Q
U
A
L
I
T
Y
S
T
R
O
N
G
E
S
T
PRICE TRENDS AND VALUATION
Price (AS OF 11/15/12) $81.30 MARKET CAP. $53.2 BILLION PRICE/SALES 0.8
PRICE/EARNINGS 8.1 PRICE/EARNINGS GROWTH 0.2 PRICE/CASH FLOW 6.0
PRICE/ADJUSTED EARNINGS 8.1 PRICE/ADJUSTED EARNINGS GROWTH 17.4 PRICE/ADJUSTED CASH FLOW 5.7
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
52 Week High: $116.00 on 02/20/12
52 Week Low: $80.95 on 07/16/12
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
2012 2011
50 Million 50 Million
Average Weekly Volume
Page 1 of 11
FINANCIAL SONAR: REALITY RADAR ON COMPANY PERFORMANCE
CATERPILLAR INC NYSE CAT
MACHINERY INDUSTRY
BUY
OVERALL RATING FOR 3RD QUARTER 2012
www.jeffersonresearch.com
2012 Jefferson Research & Management Report prepared on November 16, 2012
EARNINGS QUALITY: STRONGEST
Earnings quality has long been analyzed and used by investors as a measure of the fundamental quality of the company and its
future prospects. Companies may be including certain items that increase reported earnings and often the amount of cash flow
supporting the earnings may be weak. Jefferson adjusts for these kinds of items and other anomalies to produce an adjusted
earnings number that more accurately reflects ongoing business fundamentals at CATERPILLAR INC. Reported earnings are
compared to the Jefferson adjusted earnings as a means to gauge earnings quality. Also measured is the amount of cash flow that
underpins earnings.
The earnings quality for CAT improved from STRONG to STRONGEST.
Though reported net income was unchanged from the previous quarter at $1,699M, the quality of that reported net income
decreased. In addition, operating cash flow decreased during the last quarter to $1,255M from $1,677M, and the ratio of operating
cash flow to earnings has also declined.
NET INCOME VS. ADJUSTED NET INCOME $ IN MILLIONS
Adjusted Net Income
Adjusted Net Income as a Percentage of Net Income
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
Fiscal Year
2010
2
,
9
8
6
.
2
2
,
7
0
0
.
0
110.6%
Fiscal Year
2011
6
,
1
1
0
.
5
4
,
9
2
8
.
0
124.0%
Trailing
12 Months
6
,
8
6
1
.
6
6
,
5
3
1
.
0
105.1%
Q2 2012
1
,
7
3
5
.
0
1
,
6
9
9
.
0
102.2%
Q3 2012
1
,
6
4
3
.
0
1
,
6
9
9
.
0
96.7%
EARNINGS VS. OPERATING CASH FLOW $ IN MILLIONS
Reported Operating Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow as a Percentage of Earnings
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
Fiscal Year
2010
4
,
5
4
0
.
0
5
,
0
0
9
.
0
185.5%
Fiscal Year
2011
6
,
5
5
3
.
0
7
,
0
1
0
.
0
142.2%
Trailing
12 Months
5
,
1
2
5
.
0
4
,
7
5
7
.
0
72.8%
Q2 2012
1
,
7
1
8
.
0
1
,
6
7
7
.
0
98.7%
Q3 2012
1
,
4
6
3
.
0
1
,
2
5
5
.
0
73.9%
ACCRUALS % OF SALES
Actual Accruals Forcasted Accruals
7
5
.
7
%
6
6
.
1
%
7
5
.
0
%
6
2
.
7
%
7
0
.
6
%
5
8
.
6
%
6
3
.
3
%
6
0
.
2
%
5
8
.
1
%
5
8
.
2
%
5
4
.
8
%
5
9
.
1
%
5
4
.
8
%
5
9
.
1
%
5
5
.
3
%
5
8
.
1
%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012
Page 2 of 11
FINANCIAL SONAR: REALITY RADAR ON COMPANY PERFORMANCE
CATERPILLAR INC NYSE CAT
MACHINERY INDUSTRY
BUY
OVERALL RATING FOR 3RD QUARTER 2012
www.jeffersonresearch.com
2012 Jefferson Research & Management Report prepared on November 16, 2012
CASH FLOW QUALITY: STRONGEST
Cash flow is considered by many investors to be the ultimate measure of company performance and more reliable than reported
earnings. The Jefferson measurement eliminates items that are not part of recurring cash flow or the result of actual operations for
CATERPILLAR INC. These adjustments to cash flow provide a truer measure of cash flow and the resultant cash flow quality rating.
The cash flow quality rating for CAT remains STRONGEST as the operating cash flow quality year over year improved.
Even though the annual operating cash flow quality improved this fiscal year with a reported number of $7,010M and an adjusted
number that was 93.5% of reported, the decline in the quarterly operating cash flow quality offset this with a reported number of
$1,255M and an adjusted number that was 116.6% of reported. This represents deterioration from the previous period when the
reported number was closer to the adjusted number.
OPERATING CASH FLOW $ IN MILLIONS
Adjusted Operating Cash Flow
Adjusted Operating Cash Flow as a Percentage of Operating Cash Flow
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
Fiscal Year
2010
4
,
5
4
0
.
0
5
,
0
0
9
.
0
90.6%
Fiscal Year
2011
6
,
5
5
3
.
0
7
,
0
1
0
.
0
93.5%
Trailing
12 Months
5
,
1
2
5
.
0
4
,
7
5
7
.
0
107.7%
Q2 2012
1
,
7
1
8
.
0
1
,
6
7
7
.
0
102.4%
Q3 2012
1
,
4
6
3
.
0
1
,
2
5
5
.
0
116.6%
FREE CASH FLOW $ IN MILLIONS
Adjusted Free Cash Flow
Adjusted Cash Flow as a Percentage of Free Cash Flow
-2,000
0
2,000
Fiscal Year
2010
8
7
0
.
0 2
1
1
.
0
65.0%
Fiscal Year
2011
1
,
4
7
0
.
0
-
3
1
5
.
0
76.3%
Trailing
12 Months
-
1
,
0
6
0
.
0
-
1
,
4
2
8
.
0
134.7%
Q2 2012
2
5
2
.
0
1
,
3
3
9
.
0
119.4%
Q3 2012
-
1
0
7
.
0
1
,
9
2
7
.
0
294.4%
FLOW RATIO
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
CASH FLOW ROI
Adjusted Cash Flow ROI
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
DEBT COVERAGE
Adjusted Debt Coverage
0
10
20
30
Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
Page 3 of 11
FINANCIAL SONAR: REALITY RADAR ON COMPANY PERFORMANCE
CATERPILLAR INC NYSE CAT
MACHINERY INDUSTRY
BUY
OVERALL RATING FOR 3RD QUARTER 2012
www.jeffersonresearch.com
2012 Jefferson Research & Management Report prepared on November 16, 2012
OPERATING EFFICIENCY: STRONG
The ability of CATERPILLAR INC to earn a profit is in part the result of how rapidly it converts its collection of assets into revenues
and the resulting earnings and cash flow margins available. Operating Efficiency is measured by a combination of factors including:
return on invested capital (ROIC), gross margin, EBIT margin, asset turnover, equity turnover, and lastly Staff, General, and
Administrative costs as a percentage of sales (SGA).
The operating efficiency rating for CAT remains STRONG as the return on incremental investment capital, ROIC, net margin, and
gross margin strengthened over the last quarter, while at the same time the equity turnover, EBIT margin and SGA costs weakened.
the decline in equity turnover offset this, deteriorating from 3.7X to 3.5X. The lower equity turnover indicates that CAT is generating
less revenues per dollar of equity.
GROSS MARGIN
L UP Change from previous quarter:
30.0%
32.0%
34.0%
36.0%
Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
EBIT MARGIN
Adjusted EBIT Margin M DOWN Change from previous quarter:
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
NET MARGIN
Adjusted Net Margin L UP Change from previous quarter:
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
SG&A AS A PERCENTAGE OF SALES
L UP Change from previous quarter:
11.5%
12.0%
12.5%
13.0%
Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
Page 4 of 11
FINANCIAL SONAR: REALITY RADAR ON COMPANY PERFORMANCE
CATERPILLAR INC NYSE CAT
MACHINERY INDUSTRY
BUY
OVERALL RATING FOR 3RD QUARTER 2012
www.jeffersonresearch.com
2012 Jefferson Research & Management Report prepared on November 16, 2012
OPERATING EFFICIENCY: STRONG
ROIC
Adjusted ROIC L UP Change from previous quarter:
7.5%
10.0%
12.5%
15.0%
17.5%
Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
RETURN ON INCREMENTAL INVESTED CAPITAL
L UP Change from previous quarter:
-100.0%
-80.0%
-60.0%
-40.0%
-20.0%
Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
ASSET TURNOVER

0.70
0.75
0.80
Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
EQUITY TURNOVER
M DOWN Change from previous quarter:
3.50
3.55
3.60
3.65
3.70
Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
CASH CONVERSION CYCLE IN DAYS
L UP Change from previous quarter:
100
110
120
130
140
Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
Page 5 of 11
FINANCIAL SONAR: REALITY RADAR ON COMPANY PERFORMANCE
CATERPILLAR INC NYSE CAT
MACHINERY INDUSTRY
BUY
OVERALL RATING FOR 3RD QUARTER 2012
www.jeffersonresearch.com
2012 Jefferson Research & Management Report prepared on November 16, 2012
BALANCE SHEET QUALITY: STRONGEST
The balance sheet shows the ability of CATERPILLAR INC to pay its bills and fund future growth. It also provides clues to aggressive
accounting since reported earnings that do not generate cash flow generally end up somewhere on the balance sheet. The following
are analyzed in determining balance sheet quality: quick ratio, current ratio, cash position, accounts receivable days sales
outstanding (AR DSOs), and number of days inventory is held prior to sale to customers (Inv Days).
The balance sheet rating for CAT remains STRONGEST as the cash position, debt/equity, AR DSOs, and debt/assets strengthened
over the last quarter while the Inv Days weakened.
Even though the cash position improved from $5,103M to $5,689M, the decline in Inv Days offset this by deteriorating from 139 to
140 days. The higher Inv Days indicates that CAT has lengthened the time inventory is held before it is sold to customers thereby
requiring more working capital.
RECEIVABLES DAYS OUT
M DOWN Change from previous quarter:
100
120
140
160
Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
INVENTORY DAYS OUT
L UP Change from previous quarter:
110
120
130
140
Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
CURRENT RATIO

1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
QUICK RATIO

0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
Page 6 of 11
FINANCIAL SONAR: REALITY RADAR ON COMPANY PERFORMANCE
CATERPILLAR INC NYSE CAT
MACHINERY INDUSTRY
BUY
OVERALL RATING FOR 3RD QUARTER 2012
www.jeffersonresearch.com
2012 Jefferson Research & Management Report prepared on November 16, 2012
BALANCE SHEET QUALITY: STRONGEST
DEBT/EQUITY
Debt/Tangible Equity M DOWN Change from previous quarter:
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
DEBT/ASSETS
Debt/Tangible Assets M DOWN Change from previous quarter:
42.50
45.00
47.50
50.00
52.50
Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
CASH $ IN MILLIONS
L UP Change from previous quarter:
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
Page 7 of 11
FINANCIAL SONAR: REALITY RADAR ON COMPANY PERFORMANCE
CATERPILLAR INC NYSE CAT
MACHINERY INDUSTRY
BUY
OVERALL RATING FOR 3RD QUARTER 2012
www.jeffersonresearch.com
2012 Jefferson Research & Management Report prepared on November 16, 2012
VALUATION: LEAST RISK
A favorable valuation (a LEAST RISK or LOW RISK rating) implies lower potential downward price risk that is evidenced by a
company price multiple that is lower than the corresponding sector average. The valuation rating is based on both absolute and
relative levels at CATERPILLAR INC compared to its peers within its sector based on price to earnings (PE), price to earnings growth
(PEG), price to sales (PS), and price to cash flow (PCF).
The valuation rating for CAT remains a LEAST RISK as the price to earnings and price to cash flow ratios became more attractive over
the last quarter while the price to sales ratio became less attractive.
Even though CAT's PE ratio relative to the sector average PE improved from 0.70X to 0.47X during the last quarter, the decline in the
PS ratio relative to the sector average PS offset this by deteriorating from 0.50X to 0.73X.
PRICE/EARNINGS
RANGE
LAST 2 YEARS LOW HIGH AVERAGE
Reported Price/Earnings 8.10 22.70 14.58
Adjusted Price/Earnings 8.10 17.90 12.05
Sector Price/Earnings 13.20 22.60 16.83
As Reported Adjusted Machinery Sector
1
4
.
3
1
1
.
6
0
.
1
1
2
.
6
1
0
.
4
0
.
1
9
.
2
8
.
1
0
.
1
8
.
1
8
.
1
1
7
.
3
0
5
10
15
Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012
PRICE/CASH FLOW
RANGE
LAST 2 YEARS LOW HIGH AVERAGE
Reported Price/Cash Flow 6.00 12.40 9.26
Adjusted Price/Cash Flow 5.70 13.70 9.93
Sector Price/Cash Flow 8.60 13.80 10.81
As Reported Adjusted Machinery Sector
9
.
5
1
0
.
1
1
0
.
1
8
.
5
8
.
9
9
.
8
6
.
3
6
.
4
8
.
6
6
.
0
5
.
7
1
0
.
8
0.00
2.50
5.00
7.50
10.00
Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012
PRICE/EARNINGS GROWTH
RANGE
LAST 2 YEARS LOW HIGH AVERAGE
Reported Price/Earnings Growth 0.10 0.30 0.18
Adjusted Price/Earnings Growth 0.10 17.40 2.29
Sector Price/Earnings Growth 0.10 0.20 0.11
As Reported Adjusted Machinery Sector
0
.
2
0
.
1
0
.
1
0
.
3
0
.
2
0
.
1
0
.
2
0
.
1
0
.
1
0
.
2
1
7
.
4
0
.
1
0
5
10
15
Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012
PRICE/SALES
RANGE
LAST 2 YEARS LOW HIGH AVERAGE
Reported Price/Sales 0.40 0.90 0.63
Sector Price/Sales 1.00 1.60 1.26
As Reported Machinery Sector
0
.
5
1
.
2
0
.
4
1
.
2
0
.
5
1
.
0
0
.
8
1
.
1
0.00
0.50
1.00
Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012
Page 8 of 11
FINANCIAL SONAR: REALITY RADAR ON COMPANY PERFORMANCE
CATERPILLAR INC NYSE CAT
MACHINERY INDUSTRY
BUY
OVERALL RATING FOR 3RD QUARTER 2012
www.jeffersonresearch.com
2012 Jefferson Research & Management Report prepared on November 16, 2012
PEER VALUATION COMPARISON
TICKER COMPANY MARKET CAP.
PRICE ON
11/15/12
PRICE/
EARNINGS
PRICE/
SALES
PRICE/
CASH
FLOW
PRICE/
EARNINGS
GROWTH
VALUATION
RATING
CAT CATERPILLAR INC $53.2 B $81.30 8.1 0.8 6.0 0.2 LEAST RISK
DE DEERE & CO $33.4 B $85.40 11.3 1.0 8.3 0.5 LEAST RISK
ITW ILLINOIS TOOL WORKS $27.2 B $58.80 14.3 1.6 11.1 0.8 LEAST RISK
CMI CUMMINS INC $18.0 B $94.90 9.9 1.0 8.1 1.0 LOW RISK
ETN EATON CORP $16.3 B $48.30 11.6 1.0 8.2 1.3 LEAST RISK
PCAR PACCAR INC $14.7 B $41.80 12.6 0.9 8.2 0.3 LEAST RISK
IR INGERSOLL-RAND PLC $13.6 B $45.30 13.5 1.0 10.1 1.3 LEAST RISK
MACHINERY SECTOR $4.3 B 17.3 1.1 10.8 0.1
PEER OPERATING COMPARISON
TICKER COMPANY MARKET CAP.
GROSS
MARGIN
(%)
EBIT
MARGIN
(%)
NET
MARGIN
(%) ROIC (%)
CASH
CONVERSION
CYCLE (DAYS)
OPERATING
EFFICIENCY
RATING
CAT CATERPILLAR INC $53.2 B 33.6 16.4 10.3 15.8 132.0 LOW RISK
DE DEERE & CO $33.4 B 30.2 14.7 8.2 12.2 23.0 LEAST RISK
ITW ILLINOIS TOOL WORKS $27.2 B 38.3 17.0 11.7 14.3 95.0 LEAST RISK
CMI CUMMINS INC $18.0 B 27.5 9.7 8.5 26.6 86.0 MEDIUM RISK
ETN EATON CORP $16.3 B 34.0 10.5 8.7 12.4 72.0 LEAST RISK
PCAR PACCAR INC $14.7 B 14.5 9.9 6.1 0.0 -20.0 MEDIUM RISK
IR INGERSOLL-RAND PLC $13.6 B 34.3 12.5 9.3 10.3 63.0 LOW RISK
Page 9 of 11
FINANCIAL SONAR: REALITY RADAR ON COMPANY PERFORMANCE
CATERPILLAR INC NYSE CAT
MACHINERY INDUSTRY
BUY
OVERALL RATING FOR 3RD QUARTER 2012
www.jeffersonresearch.com
2012 Jefferson Research & Management Report prepared on November 16, 2012
DEFINITIONS
Adjusted Net Income: Adjusted Net Income is a companys
reported net income less adjustments for one-time and
non-operating items yielding a more realistic picture of a
companys ongoing earnings.
Accruals Forecasted and Actual: The comparison of forecasted
and actual accruals identifies a discretionary build not
attributable to a companys sales growth, and could be a sign of
poor earnings quality. For our purposes, the forecasted accrual
component is an aggregate measurement of total accruals
(short-term balance sheet accounts) that distinguishes between
normalized and extraordinary accruals. The normalized
accruals are based on historical relationships between sales and
accruals and are dynamically adjusted over time to account for
changes in the ratio between these two variables. Normally,
short term accruals will grow as sales grow i.e., the
normalized measure. Discretionary accruals are the portion of
accruals that are in excess of the base factor and therefore
exceed the normal and are extraordinary.
Adjusted Operating Cash Flow: Adjusted Operating Cash Flow is
reported operating cash flow less adjustments for one-time and
non-operating items yielding a more realistic picture of a
companys ongoing cash flow from operations.
Adjusted Free Cash Flow: Adjusted Free Cash Flow is reported
operating cash flow less adjustments for one-time,
non-operating items and capital expenditures. This provides a
more realistic picture of a companys ongoing cash generation
from operations after capital investments.
Flow Ratio: The Flow Ratio is a measurement of managements
effectiveness in managing its working capital to maximize the
companys cash flows. The measure is a ratio of a companys
non-cash current assets to its non-interest bearing short-term
liabilities. These non-cash assets include items such as
accounts receivable (which are essentially interest-free loans to
customers) and inventory (which is subject to obsolescence or
spoilage). The non-interest bearing liabilities are essentially
interest-free loans to the company. A lower ratio implies tighter
cash management for a company as it has less cash tied up in
non-cash current assets and is able to utilize interest free loans
from suppliers.
Cash Flow Return on Investment: Cash Flow ROI is a measure
of a companys ability to generate operating cash flow from its
invested capital. Many analysts consider this measure preferable
to an earnings return measure such as ROE since cash flow is
considered a more reliable measure.
Adjusted Cash Flow Return on Investment: Adjusted Cash Flow
ROI is a measure of the ability to generate operating cash flow
from its investment in capital calculated using a companys
adjusted cash flow.
Debt Coverage: Debt Coverage is a measure of a companys
ability to cover its debt obligations with cash flow it generated
from continuing operations.
Adjusted Debt Coverage: Adjusted Debt Coverage is a measure
of a companys ability to cover its debt obligations with cash
flow it generated from continuing operations, calculated using a
companys adjusted cash flow.
Adjusted Return on Invested Capital: Adjusted ROIC assesses a
companys efficiency at allocating the capital to profitable
investments using a companys adjusted net income (see above)
yielding a measure of how well a company is using its capital to
generate returns.
Adjusted EBIT Margin: Adjusted EBIT Margin is a measure of a
companys earnings before interest and income taxes less
adjustments for one-time and non-operating items divided by a
companys sales.
Adjusted Net Margin: Adjusted Net Margin is a measure of a
companys net income less adjustments for one-time and
non-operating items divided by a companys sales.
Return on Incremental Invested Capital: ROIIC measures the
relationship between incremental investment and incremental
net operating profit after tax. This provides a measure of the
returns a company is earning on recent investments rather than
all investments as measured by ROIC.
Cash Conversion Cycle: The Cash Conversion Cycle measures
the number of days working capital is tied up from the date of
purchase of raw materials until the collection of cash from the
sale of the product.
Debt to Tangible Equity: Debt to Tangible Equity is a ratio of a
companys debt to equity less adjustments for goodwill and
other intangible assets yielding tangible equity.
Debt to Tangible Assets: Debt to Tangible Assets is a ratio of a
companys debt to total assets less adjustments for goodwill and
other intangible assets.
Price/Adjusted Earnings: Adjusted Price/Earnings is a relative
valuation measure comparing a companys share price to its
adjusted net income.
Price/Adjusted Cash Flow: Adjusted Price/Cash Flow is a
relative valuation measure comparing a companys share price
to its adjusted cash flow.
Price/Adjusted Earnings Growth: Adjusted Price/Earnings
Growth is a relative valuation measure comparing a companys
share price to its growth in adjusted earnings.
Page 10 of 11
FINANCIAL SONAR: REALITY RADAR ON COMPANY PERFORMANCE
CATERPILLAR INC NYSE CAT
MACHINERY INDUSTRY
BUY
OVERALL RATING FOR 3RD QUARTER 2012
www.jeffersonresearch.com
2012 Jefferson Research & Management Report prepared on November 16, 2012
ABOUT THE FINANCIAL SONAR REPORT & METHODOLOGY
The Jefferson Financial Sonar ratings system classifies companies into three categories: Buy, Hold and Sell. The Financial Sonar
rating is the result of a point scoring system derived from the five main criteria. The more negative the rating, the more likely the
overall rating will be a Sell. More positive criteria will support an Overall Rating of Buy.
Jefferson Research & Management has developed the Financial Sonar Rating System which is based upon five analytical criteria:
Earnings Quality, Cash Flow, Operating Efficiency, Balance Sheet, and Valuation. The first four criteria are rated in one of four
categories (best to worst): Strongest, Strong, Weak, Weakest. Valuation is also rated in one of four categories (best to worst): Least
Risk, Low Risk, Medium Risk, Most Risk.
ABOUT JEFFERSON RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT
Jefferson Research & Management is an independent investment research and advisory firm founded in 1989 and based in Portland,
Oregon. The firm has been providing fundamental research to institutional and individual clients for more than 20 years. Financial
Sonar ratings are based on a proprietary rating system developed by Jefferson Research & Management that measures the changes
in company fundamentals using information from financial statements.
DISCLAIMER
This report is for information purposes only for clients of Jefferson Research & Management and in no way should be interpreted as a
complete investment recommendation. This report has been prepared exclusively by Jefferson Research & Management.
Information contained in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no guarantee is made to its accuracy and no
representation is made that it is complete, or that errors, if discovered, will be corrected.
1) Jefferson Research & Management and its staff are not involved in investment banking activities for firms covered.
2) No employee of Jefferson Research & Management is on the board of any covered company and no outsiders are members of
Jefferson Research & Managements board.
3) Jefferson Research & Management employees trading stock in rated companies are subject to trading restrictions prior to release
(once identified) and for a one day period subsequent to rating changes but do not individually or collectively own more than 1
percent of the outstanding stock of a covered company.
No part of this report can be reprinted or transmitted electronically without the prior written authorization of Jefferson Research &
Management.
Page 11 of 11

Vous aimerez peut-être aussi