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LPIS-day, Ispra, April 15

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, 2010
Wim Devos
MARS - GeoCAP, JRC Ispra
Decision rules
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LPIS-day, Ispra, April 15
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Is this correct?
When is the result to be colored red?
rationale
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LPIS-day, Ispra, April 15
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ISO sampling schemes:
sampling procedure describes:
1.the selection of a sample (or samples) from a lot
2.the inspection or analysis of the sample
3.the classification of the lot (as acceptable or not acceptable) based upon
the result of the inspection or analysis of the sample
the precise definition of an acceptance sampling procedure involves the
setting or selection of:
the characteristic to be measured
lot size
attribute or variables plan
Limiting Quality (LQ) level, for isolated lots; or the AQL (Acceptable Quality
Limit), for a continuous series of lots
the level of inspection
the size of the sample
the criteria for acceptance or rejection of the lot
the procedures to be adopted in cases of dispute
n
Level II
from LPIS
from discussion document
outline
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ISO2859 definitions / concepts
Pro Memoria:
Lot: definite quantity of some commodity manufactured or produced under
conditions, which are presumed uniform for the purpose
Consignment: quantity of some commodity delivered at one time. It may consist in
either a portion of a lot, either a set of several lots.
Sample Set composed of one or several items (or a portion of matter) selected by
different means in a population
Item: actual or conventional object on which a set of observations may be made,
and which is drawn to form a sample
Representative sample: sample in which the characteristics of the lot from which it
is drawn are maintained
Acceptable Quality Level (AQL): the rate of non-conforming items at which a lot
will be rejected with a low probability, usually 5 %
The AQL is particular producers risk
Limiting Quality (LQ): the rate of non-conforming items at which a lot will be
accepted with a low probability, usually 10 %
The LQ is a particular consumers risk
non-conforming: one or more, quality characteristic does not meet its established
quality specification
defect: non-fulfillment of an intended usage requirement.
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ISO 2859 for inspection by attributes
attribute: pass/fail quality characteristic
generally applicable
parts
ISO 2859-0:1995 Part 0: Introduction to the ISO 2859 attribute sampling
system
ISO 2859-1:1999/Cor 1:2001 Part 1: Sampling schemes indexed by
acceptance quality limit (AQL) for lot-by-lot (continuous production)
ISO 2859-2:1985 Part 2: Sampling plans indexed by limiting quality (LQ) for
isolated lot inspection (isolated consignments)
ISO 2859-3:2005 Part 3: Skip-lot sampling procedures
(reliable continuous production)
ISO 2859-4:2002 Part 4: Procedures for assessment of declared quality
levels (auditing purposes)
ISO 2859-5:2005 Part 5: System of sequential sampling plans indexed by
acceptance quality limit (AQL) for lot-by-lot inspection
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ISO 3951 for inspection by variables
variable: measurable (quantitative) quality characteristic
ISO 3951 is more efficient that ISO 2859 (at the same effectiveness)
the same outcome with a smaller sample
parts
ISO 3951-1:2005 Part 1: Specification for single sampling plans indexed by
acceptance quality limit (AQL) for lot-by-lot inspection for a single quality
characteristic and a single AQL
ISO/FDIS 3951-2 Part 2: General specification for single sampling plans
indexed by acceptance quality limit (AQL) for lot-by-lot inspection of
independent quality characteristics
ISO/DIS 3951-3 Part 3: Double sampling schemes indexed by acceptance
quality limit (AQL) for lot-by-lot inspection
ISO 3951-5 Part 5: Sequential sampling plans indexed by acceptance
quality limit (AQL) for inspection by variables (known standard deviation)
ISO2859-x and ISO3951-x
All have the same effectiveness for making a correct or wrong verdict
Each is more efficient for a particular situation (affecting probability conditions)
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ETS choices
choice: ISO2859-2: Sampling procedures for inspection by attributes, Part
2: Sampling plans indexed by limiting quality (LQ) for isolated lot
inspection
determines sample size n + acceptance number A
c
for known (, )
Inspection by attributes: pass/fail for each inspected item (parcel)
This is not the case for element 1 which is a variable
Limiting quality: the product is expected to be better,
We express our expectations in terms of LQ
Isolated lot: no direct feedback to the production process.
LPIS Assumptions
Homogeneous lots: in term of LPIS production and update processes
(i.e. lineage and methodology, not necessarily organization, not
necessarily land characteristics)
Random sampling: in respect of Reference Parcels , not farmer behavior
(in practice, CwRS sites with a RP risk component are NOT random)
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ISO2859-2 Procedure A
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How does it work?
1. our expectation not more than 1 %
was indexed on LQ 2% 2
2. Determine sample size n for the lot
1250 for > 500.000
3. compare observed number of non-
conforming items with acceptance No
4. if > 18: lights on
if =< 18; lights off
18/1250 = 1.44% (> 1%)
If your LPIS has 2% nc, it has a 91%
chance to be rejected
If your LPIS has 1% nc, it has a 95%
chance to be accepted
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LPIS-day, Ispra, April 15
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How does it work (contd)?
not more than 5% non-conforming
parcels indexed on LQ=8
Required sample size is 315, Ac=18
But you already inspected 1250
(for presence of defects, LQ=2)
315 valid for smaller LPIS sizes
18/315 = 5.714 % equivalent to 71 nc
per 1250
this is > 5% (or 62 nc)
Rather than take the first 315
from the pre-selection list, lights
on when more than 71 nc
parcels found in sample
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practice examples
LPIS non-conformant RP (10202)
(Rate of the Reference Parcels
with difference between eligible
area observed and eligible area
recorded less then 3%)
acceptance level (set for LPIS)
5.00% expressed as LQ = 8%
MS X MS Y
pre-selection 2021 3750
sample 800 1250
non-conforming 14 67
n/Ac 315/18 315/18
Ac (proportional) 45 71
Result 14<45 67<71
LPIS potential critical defects
(10205)
(Rate of the Reference Parcels with
potential defect, which can obstruct
the use of the parcel in the LPIS)
acceptance level (set for LPIS)
1.00% expressed as LQ = 2%
MS X MS Y
pre-selection 2021 3750
sample 800 1250
non-conforming 1 30
n/Ac 800/10 1250/18
Ac (proportional) n/a n/a
Result 1<10 30>18
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expressing non-conforming rates
Percent non-conforming items
Each item (parcel) passes or fails if the non-conforming attribute
occurs each parcel counts one
e.g. quality element 2 rate of non-conforming reference
parcels
Number of non-conformities per 100 items
Each item (parcel) is inspected and abundance of non-
conformities is counted can count several times
e.g. quality element 3
Several causes of the same type in one parcel (e.g. two land changes)
Several causes of different type in one parcel (e.g. land change and
processing error); effectively 5 seperate percent non-conforming items
for each cause
supported but not applied in 2010
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What does LQ mean?
Limiting quality (LQ)
is the expression of the worst quality lot accepted (consumers
perspective)
Is relevant for a product
not useful for guiding processes: what can you do if you dont
accept the quality?
Acceptable quality limit (AQL)
is an expression for the desired process output
(producers perspective)
drives feedback for process improvement, preventing you end
up with an unacceptable product
If you organise refresh or production processes, monitor the
processes through AQL
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LQ versus AQL (procedure B!!!!)
If your LPIS has 2% nc, it has a 91%
chance to be rejected
To guide your contractors production
process, to consistently meet the
expectation an AQL of 0.65 needs to
be targeted
0.95
0.65
0.09
not more than 1%
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LPIS-day, Ispra, April 15
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Further reading
ISO standards
www.iso.org
standards mentioned above
guidance in ISO/TR 8550-1:2007 to 8550-3,
replacing ISO/TR 8550:1994
ca 50-100 each
FAO ALINORM 04/27/23 APENDIX III
PROPOSED DRAFT GENERAL GUIDELINES ON SAMPLING
http://www.fao.org/docrep/meeting/008/j2291e/j2291e04.htm
free of charge
126 page pdf version
not exactly holiday literature
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Conclusion
1. our expectation better than 1% indexed on LQ=2%
2. this determines sample size n for all inspections
3. acceptance number proportion in sample (larger!)
4. other LQ and variable indicators are over-sampled +
acceptance number is proportionally adjusted
more robust verdict
fair trade-off between costs, complication, reliability
(risks)
use AQL for contractor monitoring ( of LQ)
any variation requires a priori agreement
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LPIS-day, Ispra, April 15
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Thank you for your attention!