Australia - Employment and Dutch Disease

by Eduardo Petazze
It is estimated that the unemployment rate in Australia will increase from an average of 5.65% in 2013 to 6.36% in 2015 due to the
slowdown in the growth rate of China, despite the reduction in the rate of labor force towards the civilian population.
With the improvement in prices of commodities, the Australian economy generated new jobs, which reached over 300 thousand new
jobs per year in 2005 and 2007.
From mid-2008, the continued appreciation of the Australian dollar was substantially reducing the rate of new job creation.
The unemployment rate had been below 4% in July and August 2008 (data not seasonally adjusted) began a clear upward trend,
reaching in Feb14 a level of 6.79%, NSA (6.04% SA).
The following table shows a possible evolution of the labor force, associated with a slowdown in the Chinese economy in 2014 and
2015
Not Seasonally Adjusted

Seasonally Adjusted

(000)
Unemployment Participation
persons Employed Unemployed
rate
rate
1993
7,653.4
1994
7,899.3
1995
8,188.8
1996
8,298.9
1997
8,366.7
1998
8,517.4
1999
8,672.6
2000
8,901.7
2001
9,015.0
2002
9,190.3
2003
9,396.5
2004
9,558.4
2005
9,880.6
2006
10,124.2
2007
10,434.3
2008
10,731.2
2009
10,805.6
2010
11,022.2
2011
11,215.0
2012
11,347.2
2013
11,465.3
2014
11,562.4
2015
11,657.7
Own estimate

933.7
850.3
757.7
771.6
763.5
708.1
640.0
596.8
651.8
625.0
592.2
545.1
523.6
508.5
477.6
474.5
636.2
606.0
600.3
624.9
687.0
740.7
792.0

10.87%
9.72%
8.47%
8.51%
8.36%
7.68%
6.87%
6.28%
6.74%
6.37%
5.93%
5.39%
5.03%
4.78%
4.38%
4.23%
5.56%
5.21%
5.08%
5.22%
5.65%
6.02%
6.36%

62.45%
62.93%
63.54%
63.52%
63.12%
63.00%
62.76%
63.14%
63.30%
63.36%
63.59%
63.46%
64.40%
64.76%
65.18%
65.48%
65.43%
65.39%
65.42%
65.14%
64.94%
64.56%
64.16%

Employed Unemployed
7,658.3
7,899.4
8,188.8
8,304.1
8,366.1
8,517.0
8,672.8
8,902.4
9,016.1
9,190.5
9,396.7
9,558.0
9,880.5
10,123.8
10,434.6
10,730.6
10,805.4
11,022.5
11,212.8
11,347.6
11,465.9
11,561.5
11,657.4

Not Seasonally Adjusted

695.9
740.0
725.4
682.4
675.9
673.0
646.9
679.4
692.5
679.9
657.0
695.3
772.8
837.8
766.8
714.6
718.9
712.9
694.8
727.5
752.4
731.6
710.1
748.5

5.80%
6.08%
5.96%
5.61%
5.55%
5.53%
5.33%
5.64%
5.66%
5.58%
5.42%
5.67%
6.37%
6.79%
6.22%
5.81%
5.84%
5.79%
5.66%
5.96%
6.07%
5.93%
5.78%
6.02%

10.87%
9.71%
8.47%
8.51%
8.36%
7.68%
6.86%
6.27%
6.77%
6.36%
5.93%
5.39%
5.03%
4.77%
4.37%
4.24%
5.57%
5.21%
5.08%
5.22%
5.66%
6.03%
6.37%

62.49%
62.93%
63.54%
63.56%
63.12%
63.00%
62.76%
63.14%
63.32%
63.36%
63.59%
63.46%
64.40%
64.75%
65.17%
65.48%
65.43%
65.39%
65.41%
65.14%
64.94%
64.57%
64.16%

Seasonally Adjusted

(000)
Unemployment Participation
persons Employed Unemployed
rate
rate
Jan-13
11,304.0
Feb-13
11,424.3
Mar-13
11,436.3
Apr-13
11,482.2
May-13
11,495.6
Jun-13
11,497.8
Jul-13
11,486.0
Aug-13
11,369.0
Sep-13
11,547.0
Oct-13
11,499.3
Nov-13
11,471.5
Dec-13
11,570.7
Jan-14
11,353.6
Feb-14
11,493.0
Mar-14
11,562.3
Apr-14
11,588.7
May-14
11,595.0
Jun-14
11,589.2
Jul-14
11,588.2
Aug-14
11,477.9
Sep-14
11,649.4
Oct-14
11,597.0
Nov-14
11,565.4
Dec-14
11,689.3
Last data
Own estimate

933.9
849.2
757.6
772.2
762.9
708.4
639.1
595.7
654.7
624.6
592.2
544.8
523.6
507.5
477.0
475.5
637.0
605.3
600.4
625.2
687.8
741.9
792.6

Unemployment Participation
rate
rate

64.66%
65.44%
65.32%
65.24%
65.18%
65.08%
64.79%
64.25%
65.17%
64.75%
64.38%
65.00%
64.17%
65.15%
65.05%
64.81%
64.76%
64.60%
64.41%
63.91%
64.85%
64.36%
63.98%
64.72%

Employed Unemployed
11,437.5
11,465.5
11,437.2
11,469.4
11,465.8
11,477.9
11,471.4
11,464.8
11,470.1
11,474.4
11,490.1
11,466.6
11,487.0
11,536.3
11,559.1
11,569.4
11,564.6
11,575.8
11,575.8
11,569.2
11,569.6
11,575.3
11,585.1
11,571.1

Links:
ABS Labour Force data: Last press release May 2014 pdf, 44 pages
RBA
Chart Pack - Commodity Prices
Commodity Prices (xls file)
Chart Pack - Exchange Rates
Real Exchange Rate Measures (xls file)

657.2
655.2
679.0
679.6
673.1
697.6
692.4
703.5
694.0
702.0
705.4
714.4
729.5
741.1
714.9
713.9
717.1
736.9
747.7
757.5
754.8
760.1
763.3
765.9

Unemployment Participation
rate
rate
5.43%
5.41%
5.60%
5.59%
5.54%
5.73%
5.69%
5.78%
5.70%
5.77%
5.78%
5.87%
5.97%
6.04%
5.82%
5.81%
5.84%
5.98%
6.07%
6.15%
6.12%
6.16%
6.18%
6.21%

65.17%
65.21%
65.07%
65.15%
65.01%
65.11%
64.95%
64.89%
64.77%
64.73%
64.73%
64.55%
64.64%
64.87%
64.76%
64.71%
64.60%
64.66%
64.62%
64.55%
64.45%
64.40%
64.36%
64.19%