Digital Re-print - July | August 2009

Feature: Commodities
Feature title: Global grain & feed markets

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GLOBAL
GRAIN & FEED MARKETS
Every issue GFMT’s market analyst John Buckley reviews
world trading conditions which are impacting the full range
of commodities used in food and feed production. His
observations will influence your decision-making.
Feed raw material outlook improving?
C
World wheat ereal & oilmeal prices rose
sharply in the second quarter
prices have been of 2009 as speculative buyers
bought futures amid concerns
on a roller-coaster about weather risks to grain and oilseed
crops in Europe and the Americas.
ride since our Fortunately for consumers, most of these threats
appear to have been over-played and conditions
last review. The have recently turned very favourable in the US
and most of the EU - if not for drought-ravaged
bellwether Chicago Argentina. With adequate crops on the way and
little in the way of new fundamental support, the
futures market speculators gambling on another bull ‘weather
market’ in commodities have been in full retreat
leapt from around through the past month. This has forced prices of
most cereal items sharply lower again, especially
$5/bushel (about on futures markets, where the earlier rise was (as
usual) more exaggerated than on physical markets.
$184/tonne) in late However, oilmeals have been slower to respond to
better crop prospects amid an unusually tight close
spring to a peak of to the US marketing season, lower than expected
supplies from South America and ongoing heavy
$6.77 ($249), only demand for soya from the top importer China.
Long term forecasts from some of the banks,
to fall back recently investment houses and other non-trade bodies
continue to point to possibilities for tighter cereal/
to the low $5’s oilseed stocks ahead and opportunities to make
money out of futures markets. However, the case
again for some of these claims looks weak, largely based
on worst-case crop scenarios and frequently ignoring
less supportive news on the demand side of the
market – e.g. lower animal feed demand as a result
of economic recession, not to mention continued
doubts about the maize
ethanol industry’s ability to
expand at the pace it has in
recent years at the cost of
traditional food and feed
users’ grain supplies.
For wheat, the key
issues in the weeks ahead
centre on quality rather
than quantity. World
production this year is
28 | July-august 2009
down but supplies of wheat in total are certainly
ample, if not excessive on many markets and already
comfortable world surplus stocks could actually
grow further next year. That said, a smaller US spring
wheat area, some Canadian weather problems and
the loss of Argentina’s export supply to drought, put
more onus on other producers, including Europe, to
come up with enough good grade milling wheat to
keep expensive imports of the hard spring blending
wheats down. The good news is that Australia, with
a traditionally high proportion of top grade milling
wheats, has sidestepped another possible drought
and is expecting a big crop – perhaps enough to keep
world quality wheat prices under control if North
American supplies do disappoint. European millers
will be watching the skies for a few more weeks yet,
hoping for the right mix of sunshine and showers to
finish promising crops off with good levels of protein
and other bread-making qualities. However, for now,
the adequacy of EU wheat supplies is underlined
by lack of interest in trading ahead of the harvest
and a large carryover into 2009/10 from last year’s
bumper crop.
Maize consumers will also welcome far more
promising news on the supply side of the market
in recent weeks. The all-important US crop has,
as expected in our last review, been sown late for
a second year running. However, in a complete
upset for bullish traders, the official estimate of
sown acreage has turned out far higher than anyone
expected and with almost ideal weather recently,
the possibility emerges of a much larger, rather
than a smaller crop this year. Demand for maize in
the US market itself is meanwhile uncertain - still
apparently declining in the feed sector and growing
more slowly than expected for ethanol use. This
combination has resulted in heavy speculative selling
on the Chicago maize futures markets into early
July and a spectacular price drop of almost 25%
from the May peaks.
Europe’s own maize crop will be down this year by
almost 10% or about 6m tonnes but so will demand
for this grain while large stocks carried in from last
year can be drawn on to supplement supplies. With
Grain &feed millinG technoloGy
COMMODITIES
soya supply if the weather co-operates However, in recent weeks, many ‘outside’
and could set world total oilseed supplies investors have had second thoughts –
demand from the big Asian feedmakers stable back on an expansionary track. both about the strength and timing of
now rather than rising (apart from China, which any economic recovery and about wheat
tends to cater for expansion with its own WHEAT – abundance, but will fundamentals.
growing crop), the premium being shown on The latter remain broadly as described last
forward maize futures markets might contract the quality be there? month. On the supply smaller crops will be
in coming months. World wheat prices have been on a seen for most major suppliers - the EU, US,
Soya, as mentioned above has been a more roller-coaster ride since our last review. Canada, Argentina and former Soviet Union
troublesome sector, putting in some new price The bellwether Chicago futures market leapt or ‘Black Sea’ cereal exporting countries. The
highs since our last review on both the US and from around $5/bushel (about $184/tonne) latest report from the International Grains
EU markets. The strength in this sector was in late spring to a peak of $6.77 ($249), only Council puts world output about 34m tonnes
initially a legacy of two successive seasons of to fall back recently to the low $5’s again. lower this year at 650m tonnes while the US
disappointing production – in North and South However,
America – exacerbated by massive growth most of the
in 2007/08 of China’s imports (though these earlier strength,
flattened off in 2008/09). Latterly, prices have which rubbed
been responding to a constantly shrinking crop off on European
estimate from Argentina (largest world soya markets too, was
meal exporter) and rain-delayed US planting. less about wheat
This diverted even more Chinese and other fundamentals
demand to the US and will see soyabean stocks of supply and
there come to a razor tight close to the season. demand, rather
The good news is that larger US sowings have what was going on
been achieved this year - later than usual but in other markets
with crop conditions near perfect, good yields – maize, soya,
and a bumper harvest are still possible. The huge crude oil, equities,
discounts being quoted on new crop soyabean currencies, etc. FOOD CHAIN
and meal prices, especially the more forward Despite its own
deliveries, testify to the looser supply position if abundant supply,
the US crop comes through. However, physical
markets obviously want to see proof in the
wheat found itself
caught up in this
From Farm to Table
harvest before reflecting this. Further forward ‘m acro t re nd ,’
eyes are turning to the next Latin American enhanced by talk
crop with Argentina already tipped to sow of a general revival
a huge, record area to compensate for this in commodity
year’s losses. That would certainly help ease investment, hopes
that the worst
of the banking/
credit crisis The premier meeting point for the feed and food industry in 2010.
was over and Addressing common concerns and identifying opportunities.
with it an Join us in Cancun, Mexico!. For more information visit:
emergence
from the www.globalfeed-food.com
low point of Hosted jointly by in co-operation
recession. FAO & IFIF with Conafab
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July-august 2009 | 29
19/06/2009 15:34
Department of Agriculture’s earlier estimate
was 656m.
Two more figures stand out in the latest
data - the high level of carryover stocks from
last season and the lack of growth in total
demand, thanks largely to an expected retreat
in the use of wheat as animal feed. The IGC
now estimates starting stocks around 160m
tonnes, 46m more than at this time last year.
This means total wheat supply will probably
be larger than in 2008/09. However, even
without those extra stocks, forecast demand
of around 644m tonnes still falls short of new
supplies by 8m tonnes – which can added to
stocks at the end of the season. So overall,
wheat supplies are not only abundant but
appear to be getting looser still.
In the EU itself total wheat output is currently
forecast around 136m tonnes – down about
15m from last year, with losses mainly focused
on the UK, Spain, Italy and some eastern
member states where dry weather has been a
problem. However, thanks to large carryover
stocks here too, total EU supply will still be
very comfortable with grain able to flow from
surplus to any deficit areas.
EU cereal prices have tended to weaken
recently with the approaching harvest and
tracking the steep reversal in US futures
markets. Many consumers have backed off
waiting for the new crop flush to bring better
bargains – although farmers have tended to
dig their heels in too, claiming - not for the
first time in the past year - that market prices
fail to offer a profit over today’s much higher
costs of production. A similar complaint is
being made in the US wheat industry and
probably in other supplying countries too.
30 | July-august 2009
At this stage, the still flaccid state of the world
wheat market suggests buyers might have the
edge for the time being although we still have
a few more weeks of crucial weather in the
run-up to harvest when good dry, sunny days
will be needed to build food wheat quality.
Markets are also watching the progress of
overseas wheat crops, especially in North
America, Australia and East Europe/FSU. US
spring wheat area was initially expected to
drop by up to 2m acres this year due to bad
planting weather. However, farmers appear
to have done a remarkable job catching up in
the dry spells and the latest official estimate
is now down by only 470,000 acres. Also,
now that the weather has improved, these
crops are in far better shape than last year, so
yields could be high enough to offset much of
the acreage loss. However, the crop does need
to accelerate now to avoid weather problems
in maturation and harvest.
The improvement in US supply prospects
has been enough to bring down export
prices of the popular Dark Northern Spring
breadwheats from $353/tonne to just $291
recently – its cheapest since December last
year and quite a contrast from the $500/600
we saw in second quarter 2009.
Canada’s spring wheat area is also seen
similar to last year’s after early forecasts of a
decline but the Wheat Board there has been
warning of a possible yield/quality hit from
delayed sowing and other weather problems
affecting the young, developing crop. These
continue as we go to press, including too much
rain in the east, too little in west and a delayed
rise in temperatures needed to get crops growing
well. However, there is enough of the growing
season ahead not to rule out a reasonable
harvest yet and like US hard wheat, the
benchmark Canadian Western Red Spring
grades have also come well off their highs with
prices frequently undercutting comparable
grades from the US.
The other major quality milling wheat
exporter, Australia, meanwhile expects a
bumper crop, possibly its largest ever, at
some 22/23m tonnes. Last year’s Australian
crop was also good at 21.4m tonnes after two
terrible drought-ravaged harvests in 2006 and
2007. Although a heavy export campaign has
reduced Australian old crop stocks recently, a
crop of this size would enable an active shipping
programme again in 2009/10, helping to keep
quality wheat costs down. The only niggling
worry at this stage is talk of an emerging ‘El
Nino’ climatic event that could lead to dry
weather problems further into the crop
development period. This might be another
false alarm but needs watching.
Argentina, in contrast, faces its worst crop
on record after prolonged drought and will
be out of the export market next season. It
normally ships 8m to 12m tonnes overseas, so it
absence will be felt, not only in its main market,
Brazil (which will turn to the US, Canada and
others for unusually large quantities) but by
other customers too. Argentina does not
figure significantly as a supplier to the EU but
its crop shortfall does influence world wheat
value which the EU must nowadays shadow to
a considerable extent.
Russian and Ukrainian wheat production
soared in recent years and their strong exports
and competitive offers have been a pivotal
factor holding down prices of ordinary grade
milling and lower grade feedwheats on both
world and European markets. This year’s crops
from the region will be smaller, especially in
the Ukraine which will be only partly offset by
a bigger harvest in Kazakhstan (often a better
quality wheat exporter). Recently, FSU/Black
Sea prices have firmed up for both milling and
feed grades to reflect the anticipated tightening
in supply. Even so, stocks carried over from last
year’s crop in the region as a whole are large
and, depending on what the authorities want
to do with these, they could remain formidable
export competitors to North American and
European suppliers in the year ahead.
MAIZE – crop shortfall threat lifting
CHICAGO maize futures collapsed to their
cheapest level in 15 months in early July after the
USDA shocked the trade with a far higher than
expected forecast for US planted acreage. Most
analysts had been braced for a fairly sizeable cut
from its March planting intentions estimate of
about 85m acres. In the event, USDA calculated
over 87m acres – about 1m more than last year.
Although the next two months’ weather will
determine the final outcome, current conditions
are extremely good – plenty of water from the
earlier rains that delayed planting – and, now
that summer is warming up, very high crop
condition ratings (better than last year, when
yields hit record levels despite a similar late
start to planting).
Grain &feed millinG technoloGy PREVIOUS PAGE NEXT PAGE

Using USDA’s trendline yield forecast of
153.4 bushels per acre, the coming US crop
would be around 312m tonnes against the
June forecast of 303.2m and last year’s 307.4m
tonnes. The biggest ever US crop was 2007’s
331.2m tonnes when planted area was 93.5m
acres and yields averaged 150.7bpa.
US maize prices were also pushed down by
another USDA report estimating US maize
stocks on June 1 at far higher levels than the
markets expected. Traders blame poor profit
margins and slack feed demand from US cattle,
pig and poultry producers which indicate US
consumption of maize ran about 4m to 5m
tonnes under the official forecast in the last
quarter. Bearish traders also note that the US
government’s energy monitering body EIA
calculated use of maize in the ethanol sector was
running below levels required to meet official
targets (95m tonnes for 2008/09 and 104m for
2009/10). Some analysts believe the slump in
maize costs and oil prices recently advancing
to 8-month highs of over $70 recently may
reverse this trend but this remains to be seen.
In combination, the higher than expected
US crop/stock figures above imply domestic
carryover for 2009/10 could be far more
comfortable now, maybe up to 40m tonnes
against 27m forecast earlier this month. Some
analysts say this could drive prices below $3/
bu before 2009 is out – levels not seen since
the autumn of 2006. At the least, these figures
cast doubt on the sustainability of premiums
displayed by distant new crop maize futures. Not
surprisingly, this news has had speculators on the
run from the maize market, another factor that
should help keep costs of this grain under control.
For the EU itself, maize supplies will decline
in 2009/10 as the crop here falls with lower
sown acreage and yields ease from last year’s
higher than normal levels. The IGC recently
estimated this would cut EU output by about
8%, to 57.8m tonnes with higher opening
stocks only partly compensating. Despite some
rain in May and June, severe drought earlier in
the season has affected maize crops in Eastern
Europe, especially Hungary and Romania while
too much rain hampered planting in Italy.
However top EU producer France has had
good weather and expects another bumper,
well-above-average, harvest.
Among other major suppliers that influence
world/EU maize costs, Argentina’s drought-
reduced 2009 crop (12.5m tonnes), is seen
reducing exports in 2008/09 from 15.7m to
just 7m tonnes. However, if the weather there
normalises, output could rebound to 18m
in early 2010, allowing shipments to recover
somewhat in the second half of 2009/10 season.
Brazil, which also had a below par crop last
32 | July-august 2009
COMMODITIES
spring (down from 2008’s 58.7m to 49.9m
tonnes) also hopes to improve performance in
2010 to 53m tonnes. So far Brazil has remained
a vigorous exporter, shipping a bumper 10m
tonnes this season and filling the Argentine
export gap. With large stocks and slower
growth in its large domestic livestock/feed
industry, Brazil should manage to export at
least as much again in 2009/10, remaining the
world’s second largest maize supplier. Lower
maize production is meanwhile expected this
year from the former Soviet Union, especially
the Ukraine, which should trim exports from
the region back significantly from the past
season’s high level.
With the main outlets for EU maize in industrial
and livestock feed use expected to contract in the
season ahead, supply should be adequate to meet
demand without depleting fairly comfortable
stocks or having to expand imports from non-
EU countries from the past year’s relatively low
level. The longer-term, overall price trend will
depend heavily, as always, on the final outcome
for the US crop. If this comes through with
normal weather – and demand from bio-fuel
and feed sectors remains flat, world maize prices
are unlikely to rise in the months ahead and may
even have further to fall.
Soya supply looking up
USDA’s keenly awaited update of US 2009
planted area for soyabeans at the end of June
slightly disappointed consumers. At 77.48m
acres this was 2% or 1.8m acres higher than
last year’s but about 1m below the average
trade estimate. Still, the record large area is
expected to produce a crop of at least 89m
tonnes and it could even move ahead of 90m
tonnes if yields are strong. That is possible, given
the current excellent condition of the crop, but
not guaranteed since it was sown later than
usual, so is more exposed to weather risks
later in the season.
If the crop does reach the target level, US
exports of soyabeans and meal could rise
appreciably but it may be some time before
the global market moves into a better supply
position than that of the past year, when tight
availability pushed prices of beans and meal to
record highs.
The US normally supplies about 35-40% of
world soyabean production, the rest coming
mainly from Latin America (for export) and
Asia (largely for home consumption and
heavily dependent on imports). A jump in
US production of perhaps 9m or 10m tonnes
this autumn is offset by two factors. One is
the record low level of US carryover stocks
from 2008/09 -down 2m to 3m from last
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year. The other is the 21m tonne decline in the fastest & most reliable way
last spring’s Latin American output caused
by drought (only slightly offset by fairly large to find the information that is
Latin American starting stocks). The net effect critical for your business
of these and other factors in the past season
was to cut world soyabean production by over With a comprehensive Products
10m tonnes. This was the main factor keeping & Services section, combined
world oilseed production flat, despite big crops
of rapeseed, sunflowerseed and groundnuts. with full A-Z company listings The 2009 edition, is bigger and
However, world output of oilseeds in total section, alongside an Extruder better than ever before.
should show a healthy increase in the season & Expander comparison guide, FOR A LIMITED TIME ONLY
ahead if the US achieves a big crop, especially if
the Latin American countries, as expected, plant import & export data from readers of GFMT can order
more soyabeans too. Current projections have around the globe & a list of the a copy half price (offer price
combined output for the latter region rising by International Organisations & UK£42.50/normal price
24m tonnes and overall, the increase in soyabean
production in the Americas – north and south – industry terminology that you UK£85).
is equal to about 27.2m tonnes more soyabean may need to do business, the
meal – though not all of the extra beans would IMD is a must for any company Please contact the directory
be crushed in the 2009/10 (Oct/Sep) season.
The expected bigger soyabean crops will with a global outlook. manager to place your order
be offset slightly in the new season by forecast or for more information.
declines in rapeseed (Canada and Europe) and If you are looking for suppliers
sunflowerseed crops (Ukraine, Russia, the or even searching for new Email: enquiries@
EU, partly offset by more from Argentina).
potential customers find them internationalmilling.com or call
However world oilseed output will still rise by
27m tonnes and currently USDA expects an with IMD. +44 1242 267703
extra 9m tonnes of world protein meal supplies.
At the moment, of course, all this additional
supply is on paper only and its materialisation at
the behest of the weather in the Americas and
Europe in the next two months or so. In the
meantime, soyabean supplies are getting very tight,
especially in the US itself, where exports have
remained strong to China and other countries
seeking alternative suppliers to drought-ridden
Argentina. China has also been building a huge
stockpile of oilseeds, having been spooked by
last year’s global shortages and record costs of
commodities to return to its traditional policy of
holding strategic security reserves.
During early June, these factors combined Terminology
with a burst of optimism about an early end to Now in its 18th edition, the IMD brings
global recession to drive soya meal prices to you specific country profiles, A-Z
10½ month highs and many consumers were
A-Z listing listings of product and services essential
reported to be responding by cutting back to the milling industry, a fully verified list
Products & Services of contacts and much, much more.
demand or turning to substitutes for oil meals
like dried distillers grains, the by-product of corn Pre-order your printed copy now by
ethanol production (though this has tended to International Organisations calling +44 1242 267703, or visit our
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drive prices of DDG up too). However, the
Country data sheets
expectation of looser supplies from the US
and South America and more recent, gloomier, www.perendale.com
reappraisal of the prospects for economic Extruder & Expander guide
recovery have since seen costs backtrack again.
Provided these soyabean crop increases Hammermills guide
come through, soyameal prices should be a
lot cheaper by this time next year. On the US
futures markets, for example, January 2010 is
already showing a discount of almost a third off
the spot price.
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COMMODITIES

om the big Asian feedmakers stable

r than rising (apart from China, which
cater for expansion with its own
rop), the premium being shown on
maize futures markets might contract
months.
mentioned above has been a more
me sector, putting in some new price
e our last review on both the US and
ts. The strength in this sector was
egacy of two successive seasons of
ing production – in North and South
– exacerbated by massive growth
8 of China’s imports (though these
ADVERTISERS LINKS
soya supply if the weather co-operates
and could set world total oilseed supplies
back on an expansionary track.
WHEAT – abundance, but will
the quality be there?
World wheat prices have been on a
roller-coaster ride since our last review.
The bellwether Chicago futures market leapt
from around $5/bushel (about $184/tonne)
in late spring to a peak of $6.77 ($249), only
to fall back recently to the low $5’s again.
However,
most of the
earlier strength,
However, in recent weeks, many ‘outside’
investors have had second thoughts –
both about the strength and timing of
any economic recovery and about wheat
INFORMATION FOR ADVERTISERS - CLICK HERE
fundamentals.
The latter remain broadly as described last
month. On the supply smaller crops will be
seen for most major suppliers - the EU, US,
Canada, Argentina and former Soviet Union
or ‘Black Sea’ cereal exporting countries. The
latest report from the International Grains
Council puts world output about 34m tonnes
lower this year at 650m tonnes while the US

off in 2008/09). Latterly, prices have
onding to a constantly shrinking crop
rom Argentina (largest world soya
orter) and rain-delayed US planting.
ted even more Chinese and other
o the US and will see soyabean stocks
e to a razor tight close to the season.
www.internationalmilling.com
which rubbed Hundreds of verified and
off on European accurate listings make the IMD
the fastest & most reliable way
markets too, was to find the information that is
critical for your business
less about wheat
With a comprehensive Products
fundamentals & Services section, combined
with full A-Z company listings The 2009 edition, is bigger and
of supply and section, alongside an Extruder better than ever before.
demand, rather & Expander comparison guide, FOR A LIMITED TIME ONLY

• Visit Global feed & food online • Visit Livestock Asia online
import & export data from

• Visit IMD online

news is that larger US sowings have
eved this year - later than usual but
conditions near perfect, good yields
per harvest are still possible. The huge
what was going on around the globe & a list of the
International Organisations &
in other markets industry terminology that you
– maize, soya, may need to do business, the
IMD is a must for any company
crude oil, equities,
readers of GFMT can order
a copy half price (offer price
UK£42.50/normal price
UK£85).
Please contact the directory
manager to place your order

FOOD CHAIN
with a global outlook.
or for more information.
being quoted on new crop soyabean currencies, etc. If you are looking for suppliers
or even searching for new Email: enquiries@
prices, especially the more forward Despite its own potential customers find them internationalmilling.com or call
with IMD. +44 1242 267703
testify to the looser supply position if abundant supply,
op comes through. However, physical
obviously want to see proof in the
wheat found itself
caught up in this
From Farm to Table
fore reflecting this. Further forward ‘m acro t re nd ,’
urning to the next Latin American enhanced by talk

• Email Global Feed & Food • Email Livestock Asia • Email IMD
Argentina already tipped to sow of a general revival
ecord area to compensate for this in commodity
Terminology
ses. That would certainly help ease investment, hopes Now in its 18th edition, the IMD brings
you specific country profiles, A-Z
A-Z listing
that the worst listings of product and services essential
to the milling industry, a fully verified list
Products & Services of contacts and much, much more.
of the banking/ Pre-order your printed copy now by
International Organisations calling +44 1242 267703, or visit our
credit crisis The premier meeting point for the feed and food industry in 2010.
secure online ordering service at
Country data sheets
was over and Addressing common concerns and identifying opportunities. www.perendale.com
Extruder & Expander guide
with it an Join us in Cancun, Mexico!. For more information visit: Hammermills guide
emergence
from the www.globalfeed-food.com
low point of Hosted jointly by in co-operation
recession. FAO & IFIF with Conafab ORDER YOUR 2009 EDITION
GFMT0904.indd 33 29/07/2009 15:56
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