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6/16/2014 Prin(z) - Analysing Trends Theory

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Analyzing Trends - Theory















Milestone trends and cost trends
in project management


There are complex methods in project management, ranging
from simple scheduling to multi-project planning with
resources. The actual integration of project planning into
business process is the difficult part. Lack of acceptance and
inconsistent execution are two hurdles which many project
management systems fail to overcome. Controlling and
reporting mechanisms regulate ongoing planning and plans.
The project information center "Prin(z)" covers two
substantial inspection procedures, the milestone and the cost
trend analyses. With its extensive report possibilities and
various interfaces, Prin(z) offers badly needed project
controlling to your business.
Evolution of project management tools
More and more projects are planned and logged in
cooperation. The current development of tools mirrors the
this trend: Three important developments have arisen: First,
increasing quantities of project data are stored in efficient,
relational databases (e.g. Project Central / Microsoft Project
). Second, managing projects in networked, browser based
systems (e.g. Actano RPLAN ). And third, project planning
has embedded itself in process management (e.g.
ProcessContinuum / Project Planner ).
Focusing on project processes
Due to overlaps and parallelisms, projects can no longer be
considered as serial process chains, rather they are a
process network. Process steps are milestones in a
development cycle which give feedback information about
reaching a desired status or a given target. Milestones
represent the turning points of one process part to further
follow-up processes and all linked tasks.
Therefor, the effects of a milestone shift are more global
than in a serial process chain; parallel and overlapping
process shifts have effects on the entire network. If or when
a milestone shifts it has direct effects on the process
success.
In addition, due to hard competition development times have
become shorter. Floats are usually omitted completely and
more and more process steps run parallel. The shift of only
one milestone can involve the missing of delivery dates or
the delay of follow-up orders, which might have direct
consequences to cash flow. To react to negative
developments quickly, it is necessary to analyze milestones
regularly.
Project control & project reports
During the course of a project, date deviations occur. The
plan is updated and differences in the comparison of planned
and actual values show up. These differences, however don't
tell the whole picture. When projects last many years, a
single delay is unlikely to endanger the finishing date,
however if the dates of a work package shift very often,
further delays become very likely. Thus, extensions of
deadlines become interesting only in chronological
comparison, overviewing all modifications at one point of
time, because they enable forecasts based on the existing
trend.
Milestones are the perfect point of reference for chronologic
comparisons as they are project-crucial processes. A
'Milestone Trend Analysis' (MTA) takes the modifications of





6/16/2014 Prin(z) - Analysing Trends Theory
http://www.project-report.com/trendanalyses.htm 2/5
the milestone dates and visualizes them in a diagram.
Considering the planning of an individual project in a process
network, strategic decisions can be derived for the
improvement and adjustment of the entire process definition
by comparing selected milestones in different projects or
processes. Continual shifts of a milestone in a certain
process can refer to a general fault in the process definition.
Milestone Trend Analyses (MTAs) are used very successfully
in many R&D areas, however they are usually created
manually and not using the assigned project management
system.
Trends are represented in an MTA chart:
The horizontal axis of the triangle raster represents the
reporting period is laid and the vertical axis represents the
planning period with an identical time scale. The milestones
are differentiated by symbols or colours and updated
periodically. Each update creates a new entry, so each
milestone is represented by a polygon. If the reported
milestone date deviates from the originally planned date, the
polygon leaves the horizontal line:
Horizontal line> deadline is kept
Rising line> deadline is exceeded at each reporting date
Falling line > milestone is due to be accomplished earlier and
earlier.
Typical MTA curves:
a) normal lines
A typical course of the curve during 'normal' implementation
of the project. Small deviations of a deadline are balanced
up- and downwards. The probability for meeting the final
date is high.
b) steep rising lines
Date predictions were too optimistic. The completion date of
the project will not be met.
6/16/2014 Prin(z) - Analysing Trends Theory
http://www.project-report.com/trendanalyses.htm 3/5

c) turn of trend lines
Until a shortly before the scheduled completion, the
deadlines appeared to be accurate. Towards the end, sudden
& substantial extensions of deadlines were announced. Date
predictions were unrealistic; a timely control intervention was
made impossible.
d) diverging lines
If interdependent work packages diverge in their date
predictions strongly, then very likely one of the tendencies is
not realistic. The project planning must be revised.
e) falling lines
If all milestone lines indicate a constant date advancement,
assumingly planned floats were too large. The responsible
planners should be more optimistic in their future predictions.
f) zigzag line
If all milestone paths show a repetitive zigzag, this reveals a
substantial uncertainty in date predictions. Thus also the
prediction of the final completion date is to be regarded as
extremely uncertain.
Return on investment (ROI)
The advantages of a graphically visualized milestone trend
analysis for the enterprise might already be seen after a few
report dates. Coworkers develop a increased awareness for
deadlines, since the date development is graphically obvious
for them. A copy of the diagrams, either as hardcopy or
email (e.g. as pdf), is also a good basis for communication in
and before the meeting-hours of the project team.
Improvements for future project plans & processes can be
derived from the predictions of the trend analysis: It
becomes easier to realistically calculated customer
estimates. If extensions of deadlines are foreseen in time
and agreed upon with the customer, contract penalties can
be avoided or at least reduced. Delayed invoices resulting
from project delays can be accomodated for in liquidity
plans.
MTA is the most important instrument for controlling
deadlines
Burghardt, M. (2001). Introduction to project
management. Publicis MCD, ISBN 3895781630.

What is cost trend analysis?
Cost trend analysis (CTA) is a method for controlling
6/16/2014 Prin(z) - Analysing Trends Theory
http://www.project-report.com/trendanalyses.htm 4/5
costs in projects.
The planned cost line (base line) is compared to the
actual costs (actual). If deviations occur, a cost divergence
shows up between these lines in the course of the project.
Additionally a forecast (preview) can be generated for an
effort estimation or cost estimation.
Comparing planned to actual costs is an essential
project control method
Burghardt, M. (2001). Introduction to project
management. Publicis MCD, ISBN 3895781630.
Execution in practice
Many enterprises still do trend analyses on 'black boards' or
Word processors due to missing software support. An
uncontrolled growth of most diverse graphs is developed,
which are only isolated solutions. These procedures are
unsuitable for establishing an enterprise-wide standard for
project controlling.
Prin(z) - the project information center
Prin(z) closes the gap and helps to integrate recognized
standard analysis methods in project management into your
business. In addition to the main features MTA (milestone
trend analysis) and CTA (cost trend analysis), Prin(z) offers
a logging function, flexible and global reporting, multiplicity
of organizational possibilities and import/export filters. As an
Add-On product for PM systems Prin(z) can be used
standalone or with interfaces to Microsoft Project or
Actano RPlan .
Advantages of the Prin(z)-MTA
planned/actual comparison of milestone dates
project-to-project comparison of milestones
visualization in an MTA chart
traffic light for milestones' status
documentation of the most important plan
modifications
logging function for risk/problems and planned internal
actions/solutions
export as text file or diagram
clear and uniform reporting
enables an easy interpretation and thus a fast reaction
to date delays
6/16/2014 Prin(z) - Analysing Trends Theory
http://www.project-report.com/trendanalyses.htm 5/5
Advantages of the Prin(z)-CTA
planned/actual comparison for efforts/costs
status is plotted (planned costs, actual costs, trend,
budget ...)
export as text file or diagram
documentation of the most important cost
modifications
logging function for risk/problems and planned internal
actions/solutions
clear and uniform reporting
enables an easy interpretation and a fast reaction to
cost changes



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