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This paper represents the closing chapter of Futures Research Methodology Version 2. It suggests which forecasting methods could be used under what circumstances. Some people have argued that any technique can be applied to normative as well as exploratory forecasting.
This paper represents the closing chapter of Futures Research Methodology Version 2. It suggests which forecasting methods could be used under what circumstances. Some people have argued that any technique can be applied to normative as well as exploratory forecasting.
This paper represents the closing chapter of Futures Research Methodology Version 2. It suggests which forecasting methods could be used under what circumstances. Some people have argued that any technique can be applied to normative as well as exploratory forecasting.
EU-US SEMINAR: NEW TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT, FORECASTING & ASSESSMENT METHODS-Seville 13-14 May 2004
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106 Paper 7 : Integration, Comparisons, and Frontier of Futures Research Methods
Theodore J Gordon and Jerome C. Glenn
I INTEGRATION OF FORECASTING METHODS
This paper represents the closing chapter of Futures Research Methodology Version 2.0 (CD-ROM) published by the American Council for the United Nations University with in the framework of the Millennium Project. Following the extensive discussion of twenty five forecasting methods or categories of methods, the last chapter suggests which forecasting methods could be used under what circumstances and in what combinations. The question is discussed on praxeological as well as on methodological level.
Taxonomy of Methods
Quantitative or qualitative methods may be used to produce normative and exploratory forecasts. Thus, all of the methods that have been considered in this series can be classed as either quantitative or qualitative and as applicable to normative or exploratory forecasting (or both). Some people have argued that any technique can be applied to normative as well as exploratory forecasting; it's simply a matter of how the technique is applied. The matrix presented in Figure 1 serves as a simple taxonomy of the methods of futures research and indicates the primary usage in the field.
Figure 1: A Simple Taxonomy of Futures Research Methods
Quantitative Qualitative Normative Exploratory Agent Modelling X X Bibliometrics X X Causal Layered Analysis X X Cross-Impact Analysis X X Decision Modelling X X Delphi Techniques X X X Econometrics and Statistical Modelling X X Environmental Scanning X X Field Anomaly Relaxation X X Futures Wheel X X X Genius Forecasting, Vision, and Intuition X X X Interactive Scenarios X X X Multiple Perspective X X X Participatory Methods X X Relevance Trees and Morphological Analysis X X Road Mapping X X X Scenarios X X X X Simulation-Gaming X X State of the Future Index X X X X Structural Analysis X X X Systems Modelling X X Technological Sequence Analysis X X Text Mining X X X Trend Impact Analysis X X
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107
SOME WARNINGS
Before beginning a description of how these methods can be integrated, a few warnings about forecasting and forecasts may be useful:
Accuracy and precision are two separate concepts. Quantitative forecasts can be very precise, but quite inaccurate, particularly in this age of computers. Forecasts can also be accurate but imprecise, such as: the high likelihood of an earthquake in California.
Extrapolation is bound to be wrong. Simply taking historical trends and extending them into the future is easy, but the projection suggests that nothing new will come along to deflect the trends, that the only forces shaping the future are those that exist in history. Ultimately, even for planets in their orbit, this assumption must be wrong.
Forecasts will be incomplete. Forecasts based on discoveries not yet made are exceedingly difficult to include. For example, who could have forecasted nuclear generated electricity before fission was known? Descriptive forecasts about ESP, antigravity, or a cure for aging are "out on a limb", because no fundamental understanding exists about the phenomena that underlie the forecasts. (See other sections of this report for further discussion on the extent of the unknowable.) As Herman Kahn once said, "The most surprising future is one which contains no surprises." This axiom is certainly pertinent to any domain in which change can be rapid and without apparent precedent - for example, politically in the Middle East, and the Persian Gulf, or with respect to terrorist attacks, or in health, the advent of SARS.
Planning must be dynamic. Because of inaccuracies and incompleteness, any plans based on forecasts are subject to error. Therefore, as new information is gained, forecasts should be revised and plans based on those forecasts reviewed. This recognition of the dynamics of planning implies the need for constant scanning of future possibility, developments, and new ideas.
Futures depend on chance. The consequences of developments initially seem unimportant and unconnected but later, through tenuous inter-linkages, become dominant in their effects.
Forecasting is not value free. Beliefs, right or wrong, colour one's view of the future as discussed in the chapters on the Multiple Perspective and on Causal Layered Analysis. These beliefs may or may not be codified; they also affect questioning about the future as well as the answering. A reviewer of this paper pointed out that one approach to forecasting is to capture legitimate alternative views through methods that show ranges of possibilities, such as scenarios. He said, "Bias and misguided idealism are serious problems in any forecasting enterprise." Many methods require judgments about probabilities of future events, but most people are bad judges of probability.
Accurate forecasts of some complex and nonlinear systems may be impossible. Examples: weather two weeks in advance, the stock market tomorrow, turbulent fluid flow in the next minute, etc.
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108 Forecasts can be self-fulfilling or defeating. By forecasting the possible existence of a new stack gas cleaning technology, that technology may become more likely. The mechanism is clear enough: reading about the possibility, others work to bring it about. A forecast of famine may make the famine less likely if it triggers action. Thus, forecasting itself can have political consequences. Furthermore, if a self-defeating forecast triggers action to avoid the forecasted problem, then the forecast may have been highly inaccurate, nevertheless, extremely useful.
Methods That Fit Together
Forecasts may use one and only one of the methods described in this series, but use of these methods in combination often provides efficiency and makes the forecasts more robust. For example:
Environmental Scanning using Delphi, Text Scanning, and group Participatory Techniques can identify trends;
Future Wheels can show potential consequences of these trends and future events, and improve the understanding of the trends and potential events;
with this better understand of the trends and/or events, they can be used in Cross-Impact Analysis to raise the important questions to be addressed in Scenario Construction;
Scenario assumptions can be tested by Causal Layered Analysis, Multiple Perspectives,Gaming-Simulations, and Roadmapping;
Trend Impact Analysis (TIA) can be used to provide estimates of the probability of possible future events and these estimates can be obtained through Delphi methods;
Cross impact tables can be included in a Systems Dynamics Model so that the model would reflect the effects of interacting external events;
Scenarios can contain quantitative Time Series estimates of variables important to the future world they depict; and
SOFI used Delphi to identify and weight variables and TIA to find a range of variation of the variable over a ten year time series that comprise the index.
Many combinations are possible. Imagine large matrix with all methods in the Figure 1 listed down the right column and repeated across the top row. One could explore a new combination by asking in each cell of this matrix: How can the methods in the first column create new and improved uses of the methods listed in the top row of the matrix. A third dimension of the matrix could list new conditions or technologies, such as globalization, nanotechnology, virtual reality, ubiquitous computing, etc. Hence, one cell would pose the question: how could Future Wheels be improved by Delphi in a tele-virtual reality nano-technology environment?
In this section, we explore some of the most potent of these combinations. EU-US SEMINAR: NEW TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT, FORECASTING & ASSESSMENT METHODS-Seville 13-14 May 2004
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Cross-Impact Analysis requires a large number of judgments about conditional probabilities. These judgments can be provided by experts through the use of Delphi methods, focus groups, interviews, or as Godet describes (1993) in the Toolbox. In addition, genius forecasting or participatory processes might be used if the matrix is small. Finally, the analysts might benefit if s/he has a reference scenario to help guide the conditional probability judgments.
Decision Analysis is the analytic study of the validity of contemplated decisions and their intended and unintended consequences. This method usually involves estimation of costs and benefits, consideration of risk and uncertainty, and articulation of a decision principle, such as minimizing downside potential. To the degree that expert judgment is used, Delphi methods may be employed. Estimation of risk and uncertainty may be based on Monte Carlo or other quantitative method of analysis, or judgment. 53
Regression analysis, future wheels, and econometric models can help establish relationships useful in estimating the consequences of decisions. One or more scenarios may be used to define the assumptions on which the analysis is based.
Decision Analysis Trees, Roadmaps, and future wheels fall within the general classification of decision analysis. This method involves the construction of branching diagrams that illustrate downstream decision points and other consequences that flow from a currently contemplated decision. Inputs used to construct such diagrams can flow from a single expert assessing alternatives, a group at a meeting, a series of interviews, or a more conventional Delphi.
Decision models and structural analysis are multi-attribute models that simulate the decision processes of policymakers, other actors, or consumers in choosing among alternatives that require judgment. If the decision model were designed to simulate a market, the required data could be obtained using conventional market research methods. If the model were designed to simulate a policy choice, interviews with the policymakers themselves or Delphi can be used.
The Delphi method is a primary technique for gathering judgments from experts. A Delphi exercise can be enhanced by other methods in several ways:
Experts can be shown a number of time series in a questionnaire, including forecasts prepared by curve-fitting procedures, and asked to assess, in quantitative terms, how future events might impact on the curves;
Forecasts presented in these curves can be derived by many different techniques, including regression analysis and simulation modelling;
53 Monte Carlo" is the name of a technique that involves random sampling. It is often used in operations research in the analysis of problems that cannot easily be modelled in closed form. In a Monte Carlo simulation, values of independent variables are chosen randomly and the equations in which these variables appear are run to achieve a single result for the dependent variable. The process is repeated many times, perhaps thousands, each with a different set of independent variables and therefore a different resulting dependent variable. The set of results is then considered as representative of the range of potential outcomes. This technique can be used in conjunction with essentially any modelling approach to convert a deterministic, single-value solution into a probabilistic solution.
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110 Relevance trees and morphological analysis can assist in defining the questions to be asked; genius forecasting can be used to form the initial questionnaire.
Econometric models are deterministic and based on statistically established historical relationships. Such models are used not only to produce quantitative forecasts but also to estimate the sensitivity of outcomes to any changes in the variables included in the models. Expert judgment collection methods can be used to obtain estimates of the independent variables used in sensitivity analysis. Scenarios can provide the backdrop for econometric analyses and help ensure the internal self-consistency of external assumptions. If a cross-impact matrix of future events were introduced into an econometric analysis, then, through the use of Monte Carlo methods, the new random selection of independent variables. This process produces a range of results of the dependent variables; in the case of technology sequence analysis, the range of dates at which the intermediate technologies or final system will be available solution could become probabilistic rather than deterministic. To accomplish this, simultaneous equations could be solved a large number of times and the results displayed as a range of possibilities. Further, the outcomes could be tested to determine the sensitivity of the outcome to the probabilities of events and their interactions. Similarly, TIA can be used to create forecasts of external variables used in econometric models.
Genius Forecasting benefits from data. Presenting the results of a simulation model or a TIA to an individual who is trying to imagine a desirable future or assess the impacts of a particular series of developments will, hopefully, inform the judgments.
Future Wheels can give just enough structure to focus the mind without preventing free thinking and leaps of insight in genius forecasting, brainstorming, and focus groups.
Morphological Analysis and Relevance Trees have been improved through the use of expert input. For example, a researcher can form a tentative morphology and perfect the morphology by asking experts in interviews to change the diagram. Often, an individual can form the top levels of a relevance tree but require expert assistance to complete the lower and more detailed levels of the diagram. When such assistance is required, Delphis or interviews are helpful.
Participatory methods can use scenarios to great advantage. Imagine showing to a group of people a scenario that depicts the consequences of current policies and then asking if the picture that emerges is desirable. An example of the use of both methods can be found in the Millennium Projects Science and Technology Management study in which scenariosgenerated in part by Delphi rounds--were presented to a global Delphi panel. The scenarios contained blanks, which the participants were invited to complete. Following the scenarios were policy questions such as: If you believed this scenario was likely, what actions would you take now? (see: <http://www.acunu.org/millennium/st-scenarios-rd2.html>)
In a regression analysis, the first step is to "specify" the equation; that is to identify the independent variables to be tested in the regression. This step, of course, can be the subject of environmental scanning, Delphi, genius forecasting, a Futures Wheel, or a series of interviews that explore possible chains of causality.
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111 Scenarios can be completely qualitative or largely quantitative. Scenarios are usually presented in sets, differing in terms of their initial boundary conditions. Key measures of the success of a scenario are plausibility, internal self-consistency, ability to make the future more real, and utility in planning. When multiple scenarios are involved consistency must exist among the scenarios. There are a number of techniques that help assure plausibility and self-consistency.
The use of TIA in conjunction with a scenarios study is particularly powerful. Recall that TIA requires identification of a series of events that can deflect historical trends. Many of these events will affect more than one time series and more than one scenario. Internal self-consistency of a scenario is promoted with the use of TIA since, whenever an event appears in a given scenario, it has the same probability. Cross-impact analyses, while more complex in many ways, can serve the same purpose.
The narrative statements often included in a scenario can be given quantitative power if they are derived systematically. Simulation modelling serves this purpose. For example, the Club of Rome's world model established a completely consistent (instructive, but flawed) scenario that could then be tested for the effects of changes in initial assumptions. Similarly, the Millennium Project used a multi-equation model prepared by International Futures to give quantitative backbone to an otherwise purely qualitative scenario (see: <http://www.acunu.org/millennium/scenarios/explor-s.html>). For more information about the model used can be found at: <http://www.du.edu/~bhughes/ifs.html >.
Of course, environmental scanning, and expert judgment, collected through Delphi or other such means, is a usual method of obtaining inputs for a scenario. These inputs might include, for example, the "scenario space" to be employed, principal drivers, the time series to be included, the lists of events that can impact on baseline forecasts, and the policies to be tested in the scenarios.
The Millennium Project has also experimented with a computer program for obtaining and accounting for changes in previously prepared scenarios. In this approach a cross impact matrix is created behind the scenes to indicate the interaction among statements in the scenario. Then when the user changes an entry the cross impact matrix is brought into play to ask the user how related statements in the scenario might be affected by the change they suggest.
Systems Dynamics models are not completely dependent on statistical relationships, but rather are based, at least in part, on perceptions about the relationships that exist among variables in the model. Therefore, the techniques mentioned earlier for collecting expert judgments all apply. Systems Dynamics models are usually deterministic. They can be made probabilistic by linking the elements of the model to prospective events through cross-impact and trend-impact methods. These methods permit the models to show a range of outcomes and provide the ability to accomplish sensitivity testing to identify which of the expected events are important to the outcome.
Technology Sequence Analysis begins with establishing a network of sequential and interlocking technological or policy developments. Since such networks involve many facets of expertise, interviews with experts have proven productive. In these interviews, experts are asked not only to perfect the network, but also to provide judgments about EU-US SEMINAR: NEW TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT, FORECASTING & ASSESSMENT METHODS-Seville 13-14 May 2004
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112 the time or costs involved in progressing from one step to another. In addition, relevance trees can help structure the exercise.
Trend Impact Analysis adds perceptions to time series forecast about future events that can deflect the trends. The specific judgments required are: specifying the list of events, probabilities of the events vs. time, and impacts of the events, should they occur, on the time series variable under study. All of the techniques mentioned earlier for collecting expert judgment apply here. In addition, while most TIAs have been based on time series methods to establish a "baseline" forecast, the method can use regression analysis or simulation modelling to make this baseline projection.
Another way of organizing and comparing the methods is by areas of use, as shown in the following table:
When You Want to: Use
Collect judgments Genius Delphi Futures Wheel Group meetings Interviews
Forecast time series, and Econometrics Other quantitative measures Trend Impact Analysis Regression analysis Structural Analysis
Understand the linkages System Dynamics between events, trends, and Agent Modelling actions Trend Impact Analysis Cross Impact Analysis Decision Trees Futures Wheel Simulation Modelling Multiple perspective Causal Layered Analysis Field Anomaly Relaxation
Determine a course of Decision Analysis action in the presence of Road Mapping uncertainty, Technology Sequence Analysis Genius
Reach an understanding if the State of the Future Index future is improving
Track changes and assumptions Environmental scanning Text Mining
Determine system stability Non linear techniques
II. FRONTIERS OF FUTURES RESEARCH
The Millennium Project with its Nodes around the world, conducting accumulative assessments of change can be thought of as an experimental method for global futures EU-US SEMINAR: NEW TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT, FORECASTING & ASSESSMENT METHODS-Seville 13-14 May 2004
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113 research. It is an example of the globalization of futures research. The Internet has made participatory approaches among geographically dispersed people practical. Since the future is increasingly complex, knowledge intensive, and globalized, then variations of the Millennium Projects approach to futures research methods may occur. Wireless Internet, knowledge visualization software, and improved computer translation will allow more international foresight activities to build collective intelligence through participatory feedback systems far more complex than the Projects current methods.
Forty years ago, computers were not much of a factor in futures research. Delphi was done with pencil and paper in 1963, and sent through the mail. If current trends continue, forty years from now nearly all futures methods will be conducted in software, through networks, with diverse and changing sets of people, continually cross-referencing data and monitoring decisions. Within twenty-five years, dramatic increases in collective human-machine intelligence were judged to be plausible by the majority of an international science and technology panel. Hence, the image of a few bright people, using a few interesting methods to forecast the future, may be replaced by the image of many people interacting with many combinations of methods to shape the future by blurring the distinctions between research and decision-making.
Scope of the Unknowable
No matter the size of the model or the computer that runs it, developments exist that are not only unknown but discoverable, if we work hard enough, as well as events that are unknowable and at this time at least- undiscoverable no matter how hard we work. Some of these undiscoverable events may turn out to be the most important aspects of the future. People are asked in a Delphi, in interviews, or in participatory meetings "what do you think may happen?" or "what do you want to happen?" Their answers are limited sharply by what people, even experts, believe is feasible, by what is taken to be "good science," and by what has already been demonstrated or postulated. Anti-gravity machines, routine and ordinary extra sensory perception, matter/antimatter propulsion in space, a Walden utopia for all, a life without aging beyond 40, a life without disease and worry, and faster than light teleportation are rarely suggested. Why? Because: Before a fundamental breakthrough demonstrates new possibilities, it is hard to imagine. Consider the problem of forecasting the ubiquitous transistor radio before the transistor, or even radios in 1700. Imagine forecasting nuclear power generating plants before fission was demonstrated or forecasting the Concorde before Langley. What would a futurist of 2100 use to describe this myopia from his or her vantage point?
By definition, the geography of the unknowable must loom as infinite. We could certainly speculate about such discontinuities (science fiction specializes in this domain) but, taking Kuhn's perspective, an idea before its time is apt to result in derision and dismissal. (2) What serious forecast would include any mention of levitation, for example? Yet room temperature superconductivity is OK because research is underway and, while a big step ahead of the present, is still plausible. Plausibility is the key. When does an idea about the future move from wild speculation to plausible and worthy of consideration? The answer is not apparent but probably has as much to do with social factors as science.
How can the domain of the unknowable be reduced? At least one experiment is worth reporting. A managing editor, in a seminar of science students at Wesleyan University, EU-US SEMINAR: NEW TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT, FORECASTING & ASSESSMENT METHODS-Seville 13-14 May 2004
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114 asked for suggestions about the results of invalidating one currently held "good science" idea. The students were asked to state the invalidated concept, find other ideas invalidated by the discovery, and state the practical developments that would follow. The experiment was a failure; imaginations were puny.
But this is a frontier. Just how does a concept move from disrepute to respectability? How do visions or reality change? Or, more importantly, how do breakthroughs really happen and can they be anticipated, if not individually, at least categorically? The future holds more that we can imagine.
Decision making in Uncertainty
Much work remains in the field of decision making. We have stressed that forecasting methods should not produce single-value images of the future and that uncertainty should be made explicit. Yet the tools for dealing with uncertainty, for ensuring adequate return for risk-taking, are far from perfect and, outside of market beta theory, rarely used. To illustrate how quantification of uncertainty may help decision-making, consider the following illustration: An executive of an electric utility company needs a forecast of the future demand for electricity in his companies region. In the old days, this forecast would have been produced with a deterministic regression model that related demand to the number of people being served; all that would have been required to forecast electricity demand would have been a demographic forecast of the population of the area. This technique would have produced a single-value forecast. The newer approaches would ask about future events that could change the historical relationships and deflect the trends. The list of such events would include high- efficiency appliances, electric automobiles, new plants moving into or out of the area, and factors leading to changes in the industrial base, such as crime, education, etc. TIA or another probabilistic method could then produce a forecast of electricity demand with a range of expectations, as shown in Figure 2.
Now, the executive looks at the chart and says, "that's a fine forecast, but my problem is that I want to find out whether or not to build the nuclear plant, and the distance between curve A and curve B is exactly the value of one nuclear plant." Here's how one might reason through the dilemma:
Suppose you believed curve A and built the nuclear plant, but the load really developed along curve B. Remember that picture.
Now suppose that you believed curve A and didn't build the nuclear plant, but the load developed along curve A. Remember that picture.
Which is better?
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115
The executive might reason that the second situation would be better, since capital would be conserved and the company would be in the position of supplying a needed commodity rather than having a disputed and idle facility, a monument to "bad planning."
In general, sources of uncertainty include new and unprecedented events, noise, chance, systemic changes, and experimental and observational errors. These sources of uncertainty will never be eliminated.
Decision analysis is a respected component of policy and operations research. Its methods include:
utility matrices: List the factors important to a decision (low cost, equity, improved standard of living, etc.). Provide a weight for each factor. List the alternate decision and score them with respect to each factor. Overall scores are determined by taking weighted sums. All other things being equal, the decision with the highest score is the most logical path to follow.
cost/benefit analysis: Does the prospective payoff justify the costs expected to reach those payoffs?
minimax: What's the worst that things can be? Select the alternative action that maximizes the minimum payout.
maximax: What's the best that things can be? Select the alternative that maximizes the maximum payoff.
minimum regret: Select the alternative that has the potential to lead to a least regret future. Example: suppose a person had the opportunity to continue in a sound job with a stable company and promising prospects or join a fledgling company, play a bigger role, but with higher risk. The person elects to remain with the stable company. Let 40 years go by. Picture the person saying: "If only I had moved when I had the chance ...." Now reverse the situation: the person moves and the new company fails. Let 40 years go by. Picture the person saying, "If only I had remained with my stable old company...." A minimum regret decision is the one anticipated to cause the least remorse.
payoff matrix: Calculate the expected value of competing decisions by multiplying the expected return by the probability of success of each decision. Then select the one with the highest expected value.
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116 Scenarios have proven helpful in the decision making in uncertainty. The strategies that work best in all of the scenario worlds included in a set are "good bets."
Also useful are:
Portfolio theory (make sure that risk and reward are commensurate, than assemble a portfolio that in the aggregate reflects your risk profile)
Decision trees track the consequences of serial decisions leading to a goal.
But the field is primitive. Managers often do not know what risks are associated with particular strategies. The quantitative techniques available to us are not yet capable to quantify risk in ways other than probability. A lot of work is needed here.
Chaos, Non-Linear Systems, and Planning
While most physical and social systems are nonlinear, mathematical models and simulations of those systems usually use linear assumptions. The linear approximation is made because linear equations are simpler to handle mathematically and over vast regions of operation the linear models provide a good match with reality. Linear systems can be stable (that is, when perturbed, the system settles to some stable value), can oscillate (that is, when perturbed, the system settles into a periodic cycle), or can be unstable (that is when perturbed, the system movements become very large and continually increase or decrease). When the systems are nonlinear, however, a fourth state of behaviour can be triggered: chaos. In this state, the system appears to be operating in random fashion, generating noise what appears to be noise. In this state, the system behaviour is still deterministic but essentially unpredictable.
The central premise of planning is that forecasting is possible. The policy sciences teach us to identify optimum policies by testing a set of prospective policies on models that simulate the real world and choosing the policy that brings the model outcome closest to the desired outcome. But if the model - and the real system - are in a chaotic state, the results of a policy may be exquisitely dependent on a number of factors other than the policy itself. In fact, quite different results might be obtained on successive runs of a model (or in two "plays" of reality) with the same policy, if the initial conditions used in the simulation (or in the "second run" of reality) are only very slightly different.
While most work in the field of chaos has been in the physical sciences, social systems can also be nonlinear and driven to chaotic behaviour. (7) The Federal Reserve attempts to control interest rates in the national economy by fixing the rate at which banks can borrow from the government. Yet, if the economy were really nonlinear and in a chaotic state, it would be difficult to tell a priori about the outcome of the "adjust-the rate" policy.
If a system that we attempt to control is nonlinear (that is, input and output are not related in a one-to-one fashion) and, through excessive feedback or "gain," is exhibiting chaotic behaviour (that is, its behaviour resembles random motion or noise), then prediction of the future of the system (interest rates, day-to-day swings in the market averages) is essentially impossible in most circumstances and, therefore, predicting the outcome of contemplated policies is equally impossible. In addition, historical precedent fails for systems that are operating in the chaotic mode. Since chaotic systems EU-US SEMINAR: NEW TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT, FORECASTING & ASSESSMENT METHODS-Seville 13-14 May 2004
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117 are very sensitive to initial conditions, history is no guide since conditions in the past were almost certainly different than the present.
Do these arguments lead to the conclusion that modelling and policy research are dead? We think not, but a whole new set of approaches to planning and systems management need to be invented. When chaos is possible, it is no longer adequate to say "choose a policy that brings the expected future close to the desired future." In chaos, the expected future is a chimera, and disorder can mask valid normative visions.
What might be some of these new strategies for management of chaotic systems? Here are some thoughts:
First, analysts should recognize that random appearing data and bizarre behaviour may not be what they seem.
Second, non linear models can be built to simulate real life systems that operate in a stable mode most of the time. Such models (see reference 7, for example) can be used to find conditions that drive the systems they simulate into oscillatory or chaotic states. Then, using the model, policies can be found that move the system back toward stability. One of the authors (Gordon), found that slowing down the feedback tends to stabilize systems. So the old advice "sleep on it" may have some validity after all.
Third, the nature of modelling changes. In the old days (yesterday), validity was tested by building models with data through some date in the past and then using the model to "forecast" the interval to the present. If there was a match, the model could be believed and used in forecasting. Now we see that if the system was in a chaotic state, it could be almost exactly correct in its match to reality and yet replication of history would be an impossibly stringent criterion. Nevertheless, such models are useful because they can point the way toward stability, establish reasonable ranges of expected operation, show periodic tendencies, and, if an attractor can be identified, even "nudged" at the right instant to achieve damping in the chaotic regime.
Fourth, using such models, the analyst can identify the future limits of operation of a system and set plans to accommodate those limits, saying, in effect, "I don't know precisely where the system is going, but I do know its limits. I'll set plans that are effective at the limits."
Fifth, planners might use the attributes of a chaotic system (rapid response to very small impetus) to his or her benefit. In chaos, things happen quickly.
The problem of planning and management of systems operating in the chaotic regime is a frontier of great importance to our field. It challenges old concepts and, with any paradigm shift, opens new opportunities of unprecedented magnitude.
Judgment Heuristics
People often make irrational decisions. They do so for psychological reasons that are not completely clear. Judgment heuristics is a field that documents some of these irrationalities (8). One or two examples will suffice to make the point:
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118 Memorable events seem more likely than less memorable events. For example: which is more likely, suicide or murder? Most people say murder, apparently because it commands a higher visibility in the press and is, therefore, more memorable. But, in fact, the opposite is the case.
We ignore probabilities in our decisions. In Tversky's example, Sam is a meek, retiring, helpful, tidy, soft-spoken person. Which occupation is he more likely to have, salesman or librarian? Most people say librarian, but there are about 100 times more salesmen than librarians. So given only the sparse amount of information in this example, salesman would have been a better bet.
Since futures research has as its primary raison d'tre informing policymaking, a better understanding of the mechanics of decision-making would be useful. This assumption moves us into the realm of psychology, but so be it. The future, after all, resides in only one place: in the mind.
The Assumption of Reductionism
There is an implicit assumption in some methods of futures research that reducing a problem to its elements improves the forecasts of the systems behaviour. For example, in agent modelling, the usual approach to writing equations that describe an economic market, for example, is replaced with assumptions about the behaviour of individuals that make up the market. The usual approach would deal with the aggregate description of prices and trade flows, and the agent model with the individual buyers and sellers decisions. We somehow have the feeling that by breaking down the problem into its elements we gain accuracy. The notion is appealing but unproven. Do we know the decision rules of the buyers and sellers with any more precision than the market as a whole? Perhaps less. We validate such disaggregated models by comparing their output with the real world and adjusting the rules of behaviour of the agents until there is a match. This same implicit assumption is made in many other applications.
There is a frontier here: since many forecasting problems can be investigated at various levels of aggregation, what levels are appropriate? As large scale data bases become available in the future it will be possible to perform cluster analyses and multi dimensional scaling to identify groups that are similar in behaviour or have similar attributes. This marriage between epidemiology, statistics, and futures research will be important and powerful.
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119 III REFERENCES
(1) Godet, Michel, (1993); From Anticipation to Action: A Handbook of Strategic Prospective, UNESCO Publishing,.
(2) Kuhn, Thomas, (1970); The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, University of Chicago Press.
(3)York, James, and Li, Tien-Yien, (1975); "Period Three Implies Chaos," American Mathematical Monthly, 82.
(4) Mandelbrot, Benoit, (1977); Fractals: Form, Chance, and Dimension, W. H. Freeman and Co., San Francisco.
(5) Gleick, James, (1987); Chaos: Making-New Science, Viking, New York.
(6) Gordon, Theodore, and Greenspan, David, (1988);"Chaos and Fractals: New Tools For Technological and Social Forecasting," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 34, 1-25.
(7) Gordon, Theodore, (1992); "Chaos in Social Systems," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 42, 1-15.
(8) Kahn man Daniel, Slovic Paul, and Tversky Amos, ed., (1982); Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Cambridge University Press,.
EU-US SEMINAR: NEW TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT, FORECASTING & ASSESSMENT METHODS-Seville 13-14 May 2004
SESSION 1: METHODOLOGICAL SELECTION
120 Presentation 7 Session 1: Methodological Selection AC/UNU Millennium Project: Integration and comparisons of futures research methods Epistemological Frame Blurred boundaries between explorative / qualitative and quantitative / normative forecasting Increased efficiency and robustness of forecasting by integration of diverse forecasting methods Session 1: Methodological Selection AC/UNU Millennium Project: Integration and comparisons of futures research methods Methodological Challenge Development of heuristic models enabling efficient systematisation of foresight methods: Organisation and Comparison Integration and Combination EU-US SEMINAR: NEW TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT, FORECASTING & ASSESSMENT METHODS-Seville 13-14 May 2004
SESSION 1: METHODOLOGICAL SELECTION
121 Session 1: Methodological Selection AC/UNU Millennium Project: Integration and comparisons of futures research methods Model 1 Question: How can methods on x-axis create new and improved uses of methods in y-axis? Forecasting Methods (x) F o r e c a s t i n g M e t h o d s ( y ) Session 1: Methodological Selection AC/UNU Millennium Project: Integration and comparisons of futures research methods Model 2 Track Changes Reach an Understanding Portray Plausible Futures Determine Course of Action Understand Linkages Collect Judgements Forecast Time Series Determine System Stability 8 areas of use EU-US SEMINAR: NEW TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT, FORECASTING & ASSESSMENT METHODS-Seville 13-14 May 2004
SESSION 1: METHODOLOGICAL SELECTION
122
Session 1: Methodological Selection AC/UNU Millennium Project: Integration and comparisons of futures research methods Example: Scenarios Study (SS) Increasing of SS efficiency: - Plausibility - Internal Self consistency - Ability to make Future real - Utility in planning - Mutual Consistency Trend Impact Analysis * Simulation Modeling * Multi Equation * Environmental Scanning* Delphi * Cross Impact Analysis * SS Session 1: Methodological Selection AC/UNU Millennium Project: Integration and comparisons of futures research methods Enhancing the Models Question: How can Scenario (x) be improved by Cross Impact Analysis (y) in a tele-virtual nano-technology environment (z)? Futures Methods (x) F u t u e r s